My Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings are done with 5×5 AVG leagues in mind, so I wanted to make rankings that represent leagues where power and OBP are favored, and speed is devalued. These are those rankings. Here is the OBP/OPS/PTS Top 1,000 2021 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:
Notes on the Rankings:
-What I had in mind during the rankings process is a points league I play in that values good real life hitters, devalues speed, and doesn’t juice up pitcher values. It still isn’t a perfect ranking (is there such thing as a perfect dynasty ranking?), but I believe it is helpful in a universal sense for category leagues too that play with OBP, or add in a 6th or 7th hitting category.
-Juan Soto claims the top spot.
-The biggest risers were unsurprisingly high walk rate sluggers with low (or low-ish) batting averages (Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, Anthony Rizzo, Cavan Biggio, Joey Gallo, Michael Conforto, Max Muncy, Ian Happ).
-On the flip side, low walk rate and speed first players all took hits (Adalberto Mondesi, Luis Robert, Tim Anderson, Whit Merrifield, Starling Marte).
-Freddy Peralta jumps over 50 spots in the rankings, not because of the format, but because damn did he look unhittable with 7 K’s in 2.2 IP in his last spring outing.
-The deeper into the rankings, the less things change based on the format. For prospects, at a certain point I want to take the most talented player, rather than get too cute with projecting category production multiple years out. For MLB guys it is about players who I think have a better shot at playing time, even if another player’s skillset may fit the format better. But there are still plenty of adjustments throughout the entire list.
Click here for the Top 473 2021 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Only Rankings
Click here for the Top 100 2020/21 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings
Player Name TEAM, POSITION, AGE (Years.Months on 2021 Opening Day – Months are on a scale of 0-11 … I know it is not mathematically correct, but I do all of this manually)
Projections (Hitters): R/HR/RBI/AVG/OBP/SLG/SB
(Pitchers): Wins/ERA/WHIP/K/Saves
*Prime Projections – These projections are meant to give you a general idea of what I think about a prospect’s future stat profile in a relatively good outcome scenario. I find this helpful as a quick reference to see how a prospect’s tools/skills translate to fantasy categories.
1) Juan Soto WASH, OF, 22.5 – Career low 26.1 ft/sec sprint speed and 4.3 degree launch angle, but it didn’t stop Soto from nabbing 6 bags and cranking 13 homers in 47 games. Only thing that could stop him was a positive Covid test that delayed the start of his season until August 5th, and even that he quickly beat with 3 rapid result antigen tests and claims it was a false positive. 2021 Projection: 112/36/109/.309/.431/.596/11
2) Ronald Acuna ATL, OF, 23.3 – I’m a glutton for homers and steals (and Chinese food), and Acuna ranks ahead of Soto in both departments. There is risk Acuna eventually turns into a 3 true outcome slugger as he whiffed at a career high 29.9% rate, pulled the ball a career high 43% of the time, launched the ball a career high 18.6 degrees, and swung at fewer pitches both in and out of the zone, which is why Juan Soto is the no doubt #1 overall pick in almost anything other than standard 5×5. 2021 Projection: 124/42/98/.271/.384/.570/30
3) Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 22.3 – New exit velocity King with a whopping 95.9 MPH average, knocking Aaron Judge off the throne after a 4 year run, but major improvements in K% (down 5.9% to 23.7%) is the main reason Tatis is in the conversation for the top overall pick. 2021 Projection: 108/36/101/.279/.367/.563/25
4) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 29.8 – Stole a single base on two attempts in 53 games. Still plenty fast but did slow down slightly with a career low 4.33 home plate to 1B runtime. 2021 Projection: 111/44/105/.288/.417/.603/10
5) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 28.6 – Jumped on the first pitch 24% of the time in 2020, up from 16.4% in 2019. It just goes to show that even for the elite, you can never stop making adjustments. “If you’re not getting better, you’re getting worse.” 2021 Projection: 121/33/100/.294/.367/.536/22
6) Cody Bellinger LAD, OF/1B, 25.9 – Down-ish year mostly due to a .245 BABIP, but exit velocity did drop 1.8 MPH to 89.3 so it wasn’t purely due to bad luck. More importantly, he maintained the major Whiff% gains he made in 2019 with a 23.3% mark. Considering the shortened season and the fact his underlying numbers were more or less in line with career norms, it would be silly to sell low on Bellinger. Update: Underwent surgery to repair a dislocated right shoulder. I originally had him ranked 5th but the separation is so razer thin at the top, the injury is enough to knock him down 2 spots. He is expected to be fully healthy for 2021. 2021 Projection: 100/39/101/.273/.368/.570/14
7) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 28.6 – Career bests in K%, BB%, exit velocity, and launch angle, all while stealing 8 bags in 58 games. Unlucky .268 BA (.307 xBA) kept Harper’s overall value from absolutely exploding. 2021 Projection: 106/38/104/.270/.397/.535/16
8) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 28.6 – Increased launch angle every single year of his 6 year career which led to Ramirez crushing 17 homers in 58 games with a 23.2 degree launch angle. The power gains wouldn’t have been possible without the 2.3 MPH jump in FB/LD exit velocity, now sitting at a respectable 94.1 MPH. 2021 Projection: 105/35/103/.276/.370/.557/23
9) Christian Yelich MIL, OF, 29.4 – Strikeout rate spiked to a career high 30.8%, partly because he became a more patient hitter (career high 18.6% BB%), but also because he simply swung and missed at a career worst rate (33.6% Whiff%). Whiff% was elevated in 2019 as well (28.2% after sitting around 23% the rest of his career), so this looks to be a trend. 2021 Projection: 107/33/99/.282/.383/.546/16
10) Shane Bieber CLE, RHP, 25.10 – Turned his fastball into a dominant pitch, upping the velocity 1 MPH to 94.1 MPH and spin rate 100 revolutions to 2354 revolutions per minute. It led to a 12% increase in whiff rate on the pitch. 2020 erased any doubt that Bieber is a true ace. 2021 Projection: 16/3.03/1.06/259 in 202 IP
By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)