Posted on by Michael Halpern · 2 Comments

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/22/24)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/22/24):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-APRIL TOP 427 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (4/19/24)
-APRIL TOP 300+ PROSPECTS RANKS COMING NEXT WEEK
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: APRIL MAILBAG COMING WEDNESDAY!
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (4/3/24)
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-SPREADSHEETS

Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 23.7 – “The captain goes down with the ship.” That’s just Maritime Law. Now, I’m no sailor, but as the world’s foremost expert on Fantasy Law, there are some players that you are required to go down with the ship for, and Corbin Carroll is most certainly one of those players. I’ve seen a ton of panic and sell low offers for Carroll, but all of the warning signs could be flashing red, the sirens could be blaring, and you are still legally obligated to not sell low on an established elite dynasty asset like Carroll on April 22nd. And quite frankly, all of the warning signs are far from flashing red. The plate approach has been elite and better than ever with a 13.6%/13.6% K%/BB%, the whiff% is down to 17.3%, and the base running is elite with 8 steals. He’s definitely been unlucky too with a .288 wOBA vs. .328 xwOBA. The one big flashing warning sign is the 84.0 MPH EV, but the 91.0 MPH FB/LD EV and 110.1 Max EV both look much better, so I 100% think that is going to come way up over time. And it’s already starting to come up with a 88.9 MPH EV over his last 8 games. Obviously the shoulder is the big concern, but we haven’t heard anything about the shoulder bothering him, so using that as the reason to sell him seems too speculative. But all of that is besides the point anyway. The point is that Carroll is an established 23 year old beast with a .285/25/54 season already under his belt. This is a player you stay so patient with that the ship could actually be sinking, and you still hold on, but I don’t actually think the ship is sinking here. Hold on for dear life.

Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 25.6 – While we’re on the topic of elite or near elite dynasty assets that I’m not selling low on, let’s talk about Oneil Cruz (along with Jazz and Jordan below). Carroll you would have to still pay up for to acquire, but Cruz, Jazz and Jordan’s prices might be entering a mighty juicy area if their owner is getting frustrated, and I would be all over it. Cruz is struggling with a .587 OPS, but he is still absolutely crushing the ball with a 92.5 MPH EV, and he’s still running with 2 steals despite barely being on base. The 40.2% K% is scary, but his 31.6% whiff% is much lower than that and not far off from what he did last year. That K% is definitely going to come down, and when it does, only good things are going to happen with how hard he crushes the ball. Let’s also give him some leeway to shake the rust off after that very serious injury. He’s on about a 22/15 pace and that’s with him playing very poorly. I’m buying the slow start.

Jazz Chisholm MIA, OF, 26.2 – Jazz is off to a lukewarm start with a .699 OPS, and the perception on him feels lukewarm in general, which makes now a great time to go after him, especially considering there are things to be very excited about in the underlying numbers. For one, the swing and miss is way down with a career best 25.6% whiff% (35.7% in 2023), and the plate approach has been improved as well with a career best 11.4% BB% and 25.1% Chase%. These improvements haven’t hindered his power at all with a beastly 91.1 MPH EV and 15.1% Barrel%. He’s running a ton as well with 4 steals. This is true elite dynasty potential … as long as he stays healthy. It’s 100% fair to ding him for being injury prone, and we saw with Robert and Royce, it can definitely come back to bite you, but I like to take risks in fantasy, and Jazz is a risk worth taking.

Jordan Walker STL, OF, 21.10 – Walker is a 21 year old who improved his Barrel% 5 percentage points to 12.5%, his EV 2.9 MPH to 92.3 MPH, his launch 2.2 degrees to 12.4, his whiff% 2.4% percentage points to 27.6% and his BB% 1.5 percentage points to 9.5%. He’s blowing up … or I should say he should be blowing up, but the OPS sits at a horrific .511 OPS. Remember it’s still only 63 PA though. Wonky stuff happens in 63 PA, and this is definitely wonky. He’s been unlucky with a .304 xwOBA, but beyond being unlucky, the underlying numbers point to a big explosion coming in the near future. Walker is still on that elite dynasty asset journey, and if you can buy in now off the struggles to take that journey with him, I would go for it.

Ralphy Velazquez CLE, 1B, 18.10 – Now that we got The Bad News Bears out of the way, let’s talk about some guys off to legitimately exciting starts, and there are few breakout prospects I’m more excited about than Ralphy. He was a major FYPD target of mine, calling him “the Xavier Isaac of this draft class,” and he’s lived up to my billing of him after another big night at the dish, going 3 for 5 with a double that rocketed off his bat. He’s destroying Single-A as an 18 year old, slashing .375/.448/.688 with 4 homers and a 22.4%/12.1% K%/BB% in 12 games. Cleveland already moved him off catcher to 1B so the beastly bat could shine. He jumped to 339th overall on the updated Top 427 April Dynasty Rankings that hit the Patreon last week, which makes him an easy Top 100 prospect when I update the Top 300 Prospects Rankings next week.

Caden Dana LAA, RHP, 20.4 – Speaking of players moving into my Top 100 Prospects, Dana took a huge jump on those Updated Dynasty Rankings as well, and he backed up that jump with his best outing yet, going 7 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 8/1 K/BB as a 20 year old at Double-A. The camera angle was behind the plate for this one, and I loved the dramatic slow zoom-in from the camera person after every strikeout. A true artist. Dana now has a 1.47 ERA with a 28.4%/4.5% K%/BB% in 18.1 IP, and he has the stuff and build to back it up at 6’4”, 215 pounds with a plus fastball/slider combo. He also throws a curve and change. We might be talking about him as an elite pitching prospect in the not too distant future.

Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 22.11 – Jones demolished his first homer out to deep centerfield and tacked on 2 steals on a 3 for 4 day. He has a 191 wRC+ with a 20/8%/12.5% K%/BB% in 6 games. The improved strikeout rate is huge to see, and he’s lifting the ball more too with a 31.3% GB%. He’s carrying over the impressive spring into Double-A and is now an undisputed elite dynasty prospect. The Unicorn Revolution is in full swing with Wood and Jones ready to join Elly and Cruz.

Alfredo Duno CIN, C, 18.4 – Cincy skipped Duno over stateside rookie ball and threw him into the fire at Single-A as an 18 year old, and he’s responding after hitting his first homer at the level in 10 games. You can see the powerful and athletic swing right there from a 6’2”, 210 pound frame. He’s now slashing .282/.370/.487 with a 26.1%/10.9% K%/BB% and 141 wRC+. He’s been an elite dynasty prospect catcher waiting to happen since he was a high priced international signing, and while he’s not quite there yet, he’s certainly knocking on the door of the Top 100.

Jordan Westburg BAL, 2B/3B, 25.1 – Westburg was one of my top off-season targets, ranking him very high at #149 on the Top 1,000 and writing, “While Gunnar and Adley hog all the attention on the MLB level, and Holliday, Mayo, Basallo etc … hog all the attention on prospect lists, you should sneakily tip toe in there and steal Westburg from his current owner like a thief in the night” … and if you took my advice and did that, you better lock your doors and windows at night, because his former owner might be out for blood after seeing his start to the season. He had another huge day yesterday, going 2 for 3 with a 110.5 MPH homer and 107.6 MPH triple. He’s now slashing an insane .333/.392/.639 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 20%/6.3% K%/BB% in 20 games. The underlying numbers back it up with a 14% Barrel%, 93.8 MPH EV and .424 xwOBA. He already rose to #101 on the April Top 427 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), and even that might not be high enough. We could be talking about a Top 50 dynasty asset by May.

Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 24.0 – Cowser isn’t far behind Westburg, ranking 108th overall on those updated rankings, and he’s staying in lockstep with him, cracking a 111.5 MPH homer last night. He’s now slashing .373/.411/.784 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 30.4%/7.1% K%/BB% in 20 games. The underlying numbers back it up as well with a 17.1% Barrel%, 91.7 MPH EV, and .416 xwOBA. I give Westburg the edge because of the superior contact rates, but both of these guys are exploding into the type of core dynasty assets you build your team around.

Jose Soriano LAA, RHP, 25.6 – 6 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 7/3 K/BB vs. CIN. The sinker sat 97.2 MPH, and the curve and splitter racked up whiffs with a 41% and 50% whiff% respectively. He now has a 3.43 ERA with a 25% K% in 21 IP. Soriano has the great combo of keeping the ball on the ground with a negative 0.6 degree launch on the back of the sinker, huge velocity, and missing bats on the back of the sweeper, slider, and splitter. The control is the only thing that isn’t there with a 12.5% BB%, but with his kind of stuff, he can survive with below average control. And if the control takes a step forward, he could explode. I’m buying Soriano.

Luis Gil NYY, RHP, 25.10 – Speaking of poor control with huge stuff, Gil dominated yesterday, going 5.2 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 9/3 K/BB vs. TBR. The fastball sat 95.9 MPH and notched a 38% whiff%, while the slider notched a 40% whiff%. He has a 2.75 ERA with a 34.5% K% in 19.2 IP, but the 20.2% BB% is full blown panic territory. His control was horrific in the minors as well, so while it’s obviously not going to remain this high, it’s well in the danger territory. It makes me hesitant to fully pay up for him in a trade, but the upside is clearly worth hanging onto.

Mitchell Parker WAS, LHP, 24.7 – 7 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 8/0 K/BB vs. HOU. Parker is definitely moving into interesting territory after his 2nd strong outing, and in this one he was able to miss bats with a 29% whiff%. He now has a 1.50 ERA with a 27.9%/0.0% K%/BB% in 12 IP. He’s missed bats his entire minor league career with a deceptive lefty delivery, so seeing it transfer to the majors is huge, and most importantly for him, the control has been much improved this year. He only throws 91.9 MPH, and the control was below average prior to this year, so definitely tread carefully, but he’s certainly worth a pick up for a pitching starved team.

Andy Pages LAD, OF, 23.4 – Pages had his coming out party in the majors, going 2 for 4 with a 413 foot bomb for his first MLB homer. He passed Miguel Vargas on the depth chart and earned this callup with across the board destruction of Triple-A with a 181 wRC+ in 15 games, and LA seems intent on giving him a full time shot. The 83.3 MPH EV and 34.3% whiff% in 5 games shows there will be an adjustment period, but he also has a 22.2% Barrel%, and is sneaky fast with a 28.3 ft/sec sprint. He’s been raking since spring and proving the shoulder is 100% healthy. He’s one of the biggest early season risers.

Orelvis Martinez TOR, 2B/3B/SS, 22.4 – Orelvis is doing his darndest to kick the door down after hitting his 6th homer in his last 7 games. This thing exploded off his bat at 108.6 MPH. Along with the dingers, the hit tool has been as good as ever with a .333 BA and 21.5% K%. He’s only played 2B this year, which shows you what his path to playing time is. The problem is, Biggio, Clement, IKF and Schneider have all played well themselves on the MLB level, so it doesn’t make sense for Toronto to make a switch right now. Orelvis will have to be patient for injuries and/or struggles to hit first, but he’s doing all he can do to force the issue.

Austin Martin MIN, 2B/OF, 25.0 – The written off Austin Martin might finally be coming into his man muscles after jacking out his first MLB homer yesterday. That lightning quick righty swing reminds you why he got taken 5th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft. And his 88 MPH EV is very encouraging, although it comes with zero barrels and a 87.4 MPH FB/LD EV in 44 PA, so I don’t want to get ahead of myself here. But he’s always had the contact/speed profile, which is transferring with a 13.6% K% and top 23% sprint speed, so even a small uptick in power would go a long way. With Kepler returning soon, there isn’t a full time job for him, but Martin is putting some respect back on his name after falling out of favor over the past few years.

Wilyer Abreu BOS, OF, 24.10 – The Red Sox wanted to make it a point to get Abreu’s bat back in the lineup. and he showed why yesterday, going 3 for 5 with a 104.3 MPH double. Just like 2023, Abreu is proving he’s legit with a 9.1% Barrel%, 90.5 MPH EV, 16.5 degree launch, and 28.8%/15.3% K%/BB% in 59 PA. He’s also running a ton with 4 steals. He’s starting to establish himself as not only a rock solid real life hitter, but also as an impact fantasy player. He’s worthy of a pick up in all league sizes, and if you’ve read my work since last year, you likely already have him, at least in medium to deeper leagues.

 Bryan Woo SEA, RHP, 24.2 – Woo made his first rehab appearance at Triple-A coming off elbow inflammation, and he looked mostly healthy, going 3 perfect innings with 5 K’s. The fastball was down a tick to 93.9 MPH, but considering it was his first outing, I wouldn’t be worried about that, and all of his pitches racked up whiffs. He’s ready to continue his ascent to young ace status.

Blade Tidwell NYM, RHP, 22.10 – Many of the best pitching stashes have either already been called up or are likely already on people’s rosters, but Tidwell might be still out there, and he’s a worthy stash. He had another good outing yesterday, going 4 IP with 2 hit, 1 ER, and a 3/1 K/BB at Double-A. He now has a 1.84 ERA with a 32.1%/10.7% K%/BB% in 14.2 IP. The control is below average, but as long as he keeps it in a manageable range, the electric fastball/slider combo will do the rest. The path to a rotation spot is actually pretty crowded, so this might be more of a 2nd half call, and it’s also possible the Mets use him out of the bullpen, at least early in his career. But he’s worthy of keeping an eye on in all league sizes.

Dylan Beavers BAL, OF, 22.8 – Poor Mr. Beavers is going full breakout at Double-A after drilling his 2nd homer in 13 games, slashing .347/.421/.551 with 2 homers, 3 steals, a 34.2% GB%, and 19%/12.1% K%?BB%, but where in the world is this guy going to play. Kyle Stowers is about to be eligible for AARP, and he’s rotting away in the minors. The 25 year old Kjerstad seems like next man up, but he has 10 homers in 21 games and still hasn’t gotten the call. Coby Mayo has a 160 wRC+ with no path in sight. Let’s not even mention Connor Norby. Mr. Beavers is so far down the line, it’s like showing up to Starbucks during the lunch rush, seeing how insanely long the wait is going to be, and just turning around and leaving.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-APRIL TOP 427 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (4/19/24)
-APRIL TOP 300+ 2024 PROSPECTS RANKS COMING NEXT WEEK
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: APRIL MAILBAG COMING WEDNESDAY!
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (4/3/24)
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-SPREADSHEETS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern · 10 Comments

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/8/24)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/8/24):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-DYNASTY RUNDOWNS AND MONTHLY DYNASTY & PROSPECTS RANKINGS UPDATES
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (4/3/24)
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
-POSITION BY POSTION TARGET ARTICLES
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET

Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 22.1 – 1 for 5 with 3 K’s yesterday and is now 1 for 13 with 7 K’s at Double-A on the season. This coming off a spring where he hit .156 with a 31.6% K% in 38 PA. Which came off a pro debut in 2023 where he put up 73 wRC+ in 85 PA at Double-A. I hate horror movies, and this is getting scarier than any horror movie I have ever seen (I still get nightmares from Event Horizon). Granted, the competition has been tough. Here he is getting completely dominated by a 99 MPH Jackson Jobe fastball yesterday. And he faced Ty Madden in his 2nd game who is an MLB ready mid-rotation starter. Not sure what his excuse is for Lael Lockhart in game 1, although again to be fair, Lockhart dominated everyone in that game with 0 ER and 9 K’s in 4.1 IP. Lockhart was also dominant in the upper minors last year … wait, who the hell is this Lockhart guy? (he actually looks interesting for my 30 teamers out there) … but let’s not get off track. Crews has every one of his dynasty owners in a full Patrick Ewing sweat right now, and I’m not sure I can be the guy to talk you down from the ledge. Regardless, there is nothing you can do but hold, because there is no sense in selling low. I would still be pretty shocked if he can’t even get it going against minor league pitching.

Zack Gelof OAK, 2B, 24.5 – And this is why losing our minds after a week and a half of games can get silly. Gelof came into Sunday with a .508 OPS in 9 games and he left it with a .781 OPS in 10 games. One game turned his season from “should I drop him” trash into having a pretty damn good start. Granted, it was a great day, going 4 for 5 with a 108.3 MPH homer to show off the power, and a 81.6 MPH triple to show off the legs. He came into the game with 2 steals. If you think this is good, just wait until Oakland moves to that PCL bandbox in Sacramento for the next 3 years. Aaron Judge won’t be the only player hitting bombs there.

Noah Schultz CHW, LHP, 20.8 – Schultz is healthy and once again putting jaws on the floor with a level of dominance that is not normal. He went 4 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER and a 10/0 K/BB at High-A on Saturday. There was no broadcast of the game, but he was reportedly sitting mid to upper 90’s and the slider was filthy. This coming off his insane 2023 with a 1.33 ERA and 36.5%/5.8% K%/BB%. He was my top pitching target from his FYPD class, so hopefully you already own him, because he’s going to be the #1 pitching prospect in baseball one day, and that day is probably like 3-4 months away. The only thing that could stop him is something I don’t even want to bring up. We’ve been hit with enough bad news in the last few days (Bieber, Strider, Eury etc …)

Dylan Lesko SDP, RHP, 20.7 – Lesko might have something to say about that claim that Schultz will take over as the top pitching prospect in the game, throwing a “no hitter” yesterday, going 4 IP with 0 hits, 0 ER, and a 1/3 K/BB at High-A. The control was scattershot, which isn’t great because all we’ve seen of Lesko in pro ball has been scattershot control (15.2% BB% in 33 IP in 2023), but the plus to double plus stuff was on full display. The fastball was in the mid 90’s, he befuddled lefties with the double plus change and dominated righties with the slider. I don’t think there was a single ball hit hard all day. He needs to show improved control before he can really fly up rankings, and I’m betting on him figuring that out at some point.

Ryan Pepiot TBR, RHP, 26.0 – 6 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 11/0 K/BB vs. COL at Coors. That improved control from last year showed back up, which is what made me call him a major target in my September 2023 Early Off-Season Target article. The fastball sat 94.1 MPH and put up a 50% whiff%. The slider and changeup were effective too, inducing weak contract and getting whiffs. It all led to a 86.5 MPH EV with a 41% whiff%. He’s in good hands with Tampa, and maybe add a star because he doesn’t throw 100 MPH? I’m ready to welcome in our new age of soft tossers who stay healthy 😉 … 94 MPH seems like a perfect compromise.

Garrett Crochet CHW, LHP, 23.9 – Crochet cements his status as a young ace with every outing. He impressed for the 3rd time in a row yesterday, going 5 IP with 5 hits, 2 ER, and a 5/0 K/BB vs. KCR. The fastball sat 96.6 MPH and the slider notched a 64% whiff%. Most importantly, the control was once again pristine (1 walk in 18 IP on the season) and the third pitch, the cutter, performed well again with a 44% whiff%, 57% CSW%, and 78.7 MPH EV against. He’ll be entering at least my Top 150 overall when I update the Dynasty Rankings this month on the Patreon.

MJ Melendez KCR, OF, 25.4 – Melendez might be turning into a superstar right before our eyes. Statcast was yelling at us to buy low after he hit only 16 homers last year, because when someone puts up an insane 93.1 MPH EV with a 16.9 degree launch, it should not be taken lightly. And now he’s making up for lost homers after walloping his 3rd homer in just 9 games. And even better, his K% is all the way down to 20.6% (28.2% in 2023). There is no guarantee he can maintain the contact gains, but it’s certainly a good sign, and it is a near guarantee he can maintain the power. Melendez has a chance to be one of the best power hitters in the game for a long time.

Riley Greene DET, OF, 23.6 – A .143 BABIP is the only thing in the way of everyone gushing over Greene, because everything else is screaming he is about to explode this year. He went 2 for 3 with a 102..9 MPH homer off lefty Kyle Muller. He’s still only hitting .188, but the 13.6 degree launch and 21.1%/15.8% K%/BB% says this is the real breakout we have been waiting for.

Colt Emerson SEA, SS, 18.8 – The next wave of hyped up prospects are coming to take their rightful spot at the top of prospect rankings, and that starts with none other than Colt Emerson. He stayed calm and loose in the box before unfurling a swing that reminded me of a big cat striking it’s prey in the jungle. Just a vicious swing that murdered the baseball for his 2nd homer in 3 games at Single-A as an 18 year old. If you want to nitpick, it comes with a 62.5% GB% and 28.6%/7.1% K%/BB%, but it’s only 3 games, so it’s merely something to watch.

Arjun Nimmala TOR, SS, 18.6 – The 18 year old Nimmala faced off against the MLB proven, 26 year old Sawyer Gipson-Long, and Nimmala’s pretty and explosive righty swing came away the victor. He hit a pretty nice looking breaking ball 376 feet at 100 MPH for his first professional homer in 3 games at Single-A. Like Emerson, we still have to watch that GB% (66.7%) and strikeout rate (46.2%), but these are two of the most explosive, and youngest players at Single-A.

Zyhir Hope LAD, OF, 19.2 – Hope didn’t have the 1st round hype of Emerson and Nimmala, drafted 326th overall, but he sure has the talent to be put in the same group as them, and he actually one upped them yesterday. He cranked 2 homers yesterdays to the same spot, and the 2nd one was crushed harder than the first. I already gave him the full hype treatment on the Patreon after he hit his first homer of the year on Friday, so this makes it 3 in 3 games. Even better, the 20%/20% K%/BB% and 33.3% GB% looks great after struggling with both at rookie ball last year. Along with the very legit power, he has double plus speed (1 steal) and legit athleticism. He might be the biggest pure riser in the very early going. When the Dodgers come knocking on the door for your prospects, just say no (he was traded with Jackson Ferris for Michael Busch this off-season, so Chicago came out just fine too-Busch looks legit).

Lazaro Montes SEA, OF, 19.5 – Montes already made his ascension and proved himself at Single-A in 2023, but he’s back for more in 2024 with his first bomb of the season, golfing one out like Tiger Woods. These days, you might as well have one foot in the grave if you’re 19 years olds at Single-A. That is so 2021. But he’s showing off his experience with a 6.7%/13.3% K%/BB% in 3 games. He improved the hit tool in 2023, and if he’s taking another step in 2024, he might be entering Yordan Alvarez ceiling territory, rather than “just” a low BA/high OBP slugger.

Jonny Farmelo SEA, OF, 19.7 – Seattle has an embarrassment of riches at Single-A, and Farmelo joined the party yesterday too with his 2nd homer in 3 games. The guy has yet to a hit a single groundball, but has been swinging and missing plenty with a 40% K%. He’s just pure upside with double plus speed to go along with the power, and like most of these young kids, the hit tool will dictate how good they can become.

Aidan Smith SEA, OF, 19.8 – Emerson, Montes, Farmelo … and now Aidan Smith is joining the fun in Seattle as well, going deep twice. This game seemed more like batting practice than a real game, or maybe this Seattle team is the Single-A version of Baltimore’s Triple-A team. Seattle has an army ready to supplement Julio and that rotation in a couple years. Watch your back, Texas.

Shota Imanaga CHC, LHP, 30.7 – No cake matchup excuse this time, Imanaga went out there and dominated the Dodgers, going 4 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 3/0 K/BB. The 92.3 MPH fastball notched a 33% whiff% and the splitter was solid with a 43% CSW%. There is zero doubt at this point that Imanaga’s low 90’s stuff will easily transfer to MLB. It sure looks like he might be a legit ace, or near ace, and that isn’t exaggerating. He now has a 0.00 ERA with a 34.3%/0% K%/BB% in 10 IP. I didn’t give him enough respect this off-season.

Max Meyer MIA, RHP, 25.1 – 6 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 3/1 vs/ STL. The ballyhooed slider is living up to the billing, dominating with a 49% usage, 45% whiff%, and 81 MPH EV against. The fastball sat 94.6 MPH, and the changeup was solid too with a 84.8 MPH EV against. It’s getting pretty safe to say that Meyer is 100% healthy coming off Tommy John, and he’s establishing that he’s the real deal on the MLB level. He might be approaching Top 200 dynasty asset status.

Ronel Blanco HOU, RHP, 30.7 – Blanco followed up his no hitter with a 1 hitter over 6, going 6 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 4/4 K/BB vs. TEX. He didn’t get many whiffs with a 14% whiff%, but he induced weak contact with a 83.3 MPH EV, so it’s certainly not pure luck. I’m still not fully buying in, because I’m a K/BB guy at the end of the day, but it’s obvious he’s not a complete mirage either. Solid mid-rotation starter is as high as I can go on him right now.

 Jackson Merrill SDP, SS, 20.11 – There was a reason Merrill made the team as a 20 year old out of camp, and that is because he is clearly ready after going 4 for 4 with a stolen base yesterday. And those hits came off Logan Webb (103.1 MPH, 93 MPH, and 72.3 singles) and Camilo Doval (104.8 MPH single). He’s now slashing .324/.395/.471 with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 18.4%/10.5% K%/BB% in 12 games. The 92.6 MPH EV and 10.1 degree launch looks great as well. He’s not even 21 yet. He’s going to be a superstar.

Jazz Chisholm MIA, OF, 26.2 – I can’t guarantee that Jazz is going to stay healthy, but I can guarantee that he is healthy right now with how he looks to start 2024. He cracked a 105.4 MPH, 412 foot bomb off Kyle Gipson for his 2nd of the year. He now has a 91.7 MPH EV with a 21.7% Barrel%. The plate approach has also been much improved with a 26.2%/19% K%/BB%. I kept the faith on him, ranking him 34th overall, and let me feel pretty good about that before the other shoe drops (hopefully it doesn’t).

Landen Maroudis TOR, RHP, 19.4 – Talented 2024 FYPD pitching prospect, Landen Maroudis, saw what Barrett Kent did on Friday, and one upped him (just like his signing bonus one upped him-Maroudis signed for $1.5 million and Kent for $1 million), going 4 IP with 0 hits, 0 ER, and a 5/0 K/BB vs. a Single-A Tigers lineup that featured Max Clark and Josue Briceno. The fastball sat 94.5 MPH and the slider and curve notched a 40% and 100% whiff%, respectively. He also mixed in a sinker and changeup. He’s a projectable 6’3” with an athletic and explosive righty delivery. The fastball was crisp and he had the breaking balls on a string. It sure looks like he’s about to blow up.

Lonnie White PIT, OF, 21.3 – White demolished an absolute NUKE that I’m pretty sure hit off the scoreboard for his 2nd homer in just 3 games at High-A. That is the type of raw talent I was talking about when I ranked him 46th overall on my Predicting the 2025 Top 50 Prospects Rankings (Patreon), writing, “White will start the year at the age appropriate High-A and do exactly what he did at Single-A in 2023 to High-A in 2024. The elite level athleticism combined with age to level production will have everyone buying in.” He now has a .953 OPS, but there is one small snafu … okay, one big snafu … it comes with a 7/1 K/BB. The hit tool is the thing that can tank him, and right now, the K’s are just as concerning as the homers are impressive. He’s going to need to make better contact to make due on my Top 50 prediction for him.

Jordan Beck COL, OF, 22.11 – Beck is simply unconscious at Triple-A, popping his 3rd homer in 8 games, and he didn’t strike out in this one either. He could be one of the top impact hitting prospects to get called up in 2024, and he’ll have Coors Field at his back. I gave you the heads up to stash him last Monday, and he’s only continued his dominance.

Samuel Zavala CHW, OF, 19.9 – Zavala had a rough cup of coffee at High-A last year, so it’s nice to see him getting off to a hot start this year after hitting his 1st homer in 3 games. He has a 209 wRC+, but we need to see the 31.3%/6.3% K%/BB% improve before we can get really excited.

Alex Ramirez NYM, OF, 21.3 – Ramirez has been sitting the breakout waiting room for a long time, and this year it’s now or never. He’s choosing now as he sliced an opposite field dinger for his first of the year at Double-A. He’s now hitting .455 with 4 steals and a 30.8%/15.4% K%/BB% in 3 games. I know we all have prospect fatigue with him, but he’s still just 21 years old at Double-A. This could finally be the explosion.

Max Muncy OAK, SS, 21.8 – Muncy is another 21 year old who the prospect community has tired on, but he’s ripping up Triple-A right now, and he’ll play at a Triple-A ballpark until 2027, making him even more enticing. He hit his first homer and finished the day 3 with 4 with 2 doubles and 0 K’s. He now has a 163 wRC+ with 2 steals and a 14.3% K%. He’s always had the talent, drafted 25th overall in 2021, and he just might be coming into his own.

Wilfred Veras CHW, OF, 21.5 – Veras is another super talented 21 year old in the upper minors who is making waves after pimping the shit out of his 2nd homer at Double-A. He now has a 387 wRC+ with an 18.2% K%. Chicago is desperate for some real talent, and Veras certainly has real talent as Fernando Tatis’ cousin. He might also be entering sneaky 2nd half stash appeal.

Tyler O’Neill BOS, OF, 28.10 – Remember Cardinals Devil Magic? Where the Cardinals were able to turn every off the radar hitter into gold. Well, there is a dark side to dancing with the Devil, and that bill has been coming due over the last few years. Now every former Cardinals outfielder turns to gold once they leave St. Louis, and O’Neill is next in line after ripping his 5th homer yesterday. He now has a 1.407 OPS, 92.1 MPH EV, 22.7% Barrel%, and 16.2%/18.9% K%/BB% in 9 games. Don’t question the dark arts. This was inevitable.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-DYNASTY RUNDOWNS AND MONTHLY DYNASTY & PROSPECTS RANKINGS UPDATES
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (4/3/24)
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
-POSITION BY POSTION TARGET ARTICLES
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern · 4 Comments

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/1/24)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/1/24):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-DYNASTY RUNDOWNS AND MONTHLY DYNASTY & PROSPECTS RANKINGS UPDATES
-TOP 55 PROSPECTS RANKINGS FOR 2024 ONLY
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-TOP 11+ 2025 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST
-POSITION BY POSTION TARGET ARTICLES
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET

Evan Carter TEX, OF, 21.7 – It’s 4 days into the season, there hasn’t even been a single game played in April yet, and if you’re anything like me, you’re ready to throw all of your off-season planning right out the window based on who did and didn’t hit a homer yet. I’m in 4th to last place in my 18 team league, franchise savior Evan Carter is 0 for 8, and now I’m questioning everything. In my 12 teamer and 30 teamer, I’m towards the top of the standings, and am already patting myself on the back for how much of a genius I am. So instead of pretending like I am some emotionless fantasy monk, telling you the reasonable thing, which is that it’s a long season, and that what happens in the first week is not a good indicator for what will happen the entire season, let’s lean into it and overreact. And also, lets see if any of this stuff will have staying power, or at least if we think it will.

Kerry Carpenter DET, OF, 26.7 – Carpenter was as underrated as a core, proven, young dynasty asset could get this off-season, and he’s off to hot start in 2024 after smoking an Erick Fedde hanger 393 feet for his first homer of the year. He tacked on another 102 MPH single on a 2 for 4 day. He’s now 4 for 9 with a double, homer and 0 K’s. He ranked 142nd overall in my Top 1,145 Dynasty Baseball Rankings, and I named him a Target in my positional target articles, writing, “Carpenter has a pretty rare, very hard to find profile that can usually only be found at the top of drafts, but he gets valued like a boring afterthought. He had a 10.2% Barrel%, 90.1/95.1 MPH AVG/FB EV, 13.1 degree launch, 28.1 ft/sec sprint, and 27% whiff%. I promise you, those are not easy numbers to find. And the surface stats fully back it up. Carpenter has a chance to be really really good. Like Top 75 dynasty asset good, and nobody seems to really care.” … people are going to start to care if he keeps this up. He currently has a 92.2 MPH EV with a 25.6 degree launch and a 12.5% whiff%. My verdict, he’s for real.

Maikel Garcia KCR, 3B, 24.1 – The Maikel Garcia coming out party is here, and if you’ve read my work since June of 2023, you are partying right along with him. He jacked out his 2nd homer in just 3 games, after hitting just 4 homers in 123 games last year. That is 50% of the homers in 2.4% of the games, if math is your thing. Or if math isn’t your thing, that is a 108 homer pace if stupid fun prorating is your thing (I lean towards the stupid fun prorating side myself). I already victory lapped him in the Opening Day Rundown over on the Patreon after he hit his first homer, but as long as he keeps hitting homers, I’ll keep going around the track. He’s always hit the ball hard, got the bat on the ball, and had speed. Now he’s lifting it with a 21.4 degree launch. His upside is not to be trifled with. Verdict: for real.

Jordan Beck COL, OF, 22.11 – Jordan Beck isn’t just knocking on the door of the bigs, he’s pounding on it like my freshman year RA after smelling weed coming from my room. He had another huge day at Triple-A, going 3 for 5 with a 104.4 MPH, 396 foot triple, a 103.9 MPH single, and a 102.9 MPH, 439 foot homer. That’s his 2nd homer in 3 games to give him a 1.550 OPS on the season. Colorado had Elehuris Montero, Michael Toglia, and Jake Cave in their staring lineup yesterday, falling to 1-3 on the season. Beck is a prime stash for all league sizes. Beck and Joey Loperfido are probably the biggest Triple-A hitting “risers” to start the season.

Carson Whisenhunt SFG, LHP, 23.6 – Whisenhunt got back on the mound for the first time since an elbow injury ended his season in late July, and he looked electric, going 3 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB at Triple-A. The fastball sat 94 MPH and put up a 42% whiff% on the pitch, while the elite changeup was silly dominant with a 100% whiff%. He just reminded everyone of why we were so excited for him before going down with the injury. If Back and Loperfido are the top hitting risers, Whisenhunt might be the top pitching riser. He’s worth a stash in all league sizes. He just has to stay healthy, which is easier said than done.

 Juan Soto NYY, OF, 25.6 – I was smelling that monster, doesn’t even look like a real statline, career year for Soto. The Baseball Gods owed him that one for the shortened 2020 season where had a 202 wRC+, and it sure looks like it’s happening. He went 3 for 5 yesterday and is now 9 for 17 with 1 double, 1 homer and a 2/3 K/BB. The Yanks are going to have to pay this man one billion dollars to keep him. Or at least that is what Boras will ask for before dragging the negotiations into deep March, and then settling for a 1 year, $100 million deal.

Christopher Morel CHC, OF, 24.10 – It’s clear that Chicago wants Morel’s big bat in the middle of their lineup, whether it’s at 3B or DH, and Morel is doing everything he can to stay in that cleanup spot, jacking out his 1st homer at 107.4 MPH. He now has a 1.071 OPS in 3 games, and most importantly, he’s only struck out once in 14 PA. He had a 32.1% K% in 53 spring PA, so this one is probably more of a small sample thing than something sustainable, but if that swing and miss can just take a small step forward, it would make a big impact with how hard he hits the ball. Can’t say it’s for real quite yet, but it’s a good start.

Trey Lipscomb WAS, 3B, 23.9 – Nick Senzel went down with a fractured thumb fielding grounders, and Lipscomb swooped right in to take his job. He cracked his first MLB homer yesterday and is off to a hot start, going 3 for 8 with a homer and a steal. The underlying numbers aren’t super encouraging with a 85.9 MPH EV, 44.4% whiff% and negative 8 degree launch, so I wouldn’t go too crazy for him at all, but he’s certainly worth a pick up for his potential solid across the board production. As for Senzel, this is why I hid all injuries when I played baseball through high school. Looking back, my UCL was barking basically since 7th grade, and I didn’t tell a soul. You ain’t taking my job. Senzel’s out, Lipscomb is in, but my verdict is that it’s probably not for real.

CJ Abrams WAS, SS, 23.6 – Abrams on the other hand is 100% for real, and he might be ready to level up in 2024. He demolished a Nick Martinez curve 429 feet at 107.1 MPH for his first homer of the year. Naturally getting stronger is just about all he needs to do to explode, and so far he has a 90.7 MPH EV with a 14.3% Barrel% in 7 batted balls. He already lifts it, gets the bat on the ball, and has speed. Before EV took over the world, there was an adage for young players that power was the last thing to come. Now if you don’t have a 93 MPH EV as a 12 year old in little league you are looked over. The man muscles might be coming in for Abrams. He now has a 1.085 OPS with a homer and 3 steals. He’s for real.

Will Benson CIN, OF, 25.9 – EV has never been an issue for the 6’5”, 230 pound Benson, and he’s picking up from where he left off in the 2nd half of 2023, blasting a 411 foot homer to go along with a 103.3 MPH double and 100.8 MPH single. It’s the swing and miss that we have to watch, and unfortunately, that is still there with a 44% whiff% in 13 PA. He’s had big K rates his entire career, so that likely isn’t going anywhere, but when you have a 101.6 MPH EV, we’ll accept that. I was all over Benson pre-2023, and while he has his flaws, I’m buying the huge power/speed combo.

Garrett Whitlock BOS, RHP, 27.10 – 5 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 8/0 K/BB vs. SEA. The 19% whiff% wasn’t eye popping, but he induced weak contact with a 78.7 MPH EV against, and as usual, his control was on point. I’m a sucker for Whitlock every time he gets a shot in the rotation, and this year in no different. He’s not this good, but his plus control, above average whiff combo is enticing as long as he stays healthy. I’m in.

Bryce Miller SEA, RHP, 25.7 – 5 IP, 6 hits, 4 ER, 6/2 K/BB vs. BOS. Not the best outing, but I’m just here to check on the new splitter … 60% whiff%. The fastball was great too with a 37% whiff%. He’s going to explode, and if you can sneak in a reasonable trade for him based on this mediocre outing, I would be all over it.

Gavin Stone LAD, RHP, 25.6 – 5 IP, 7 hits, 3 ER, 6/1 K/BB vs. STL. The filthy changeup utterly dominated with a 41% usage, 68 MPH EV against, and 50% whiff%. That is just silly. The fastball was up (along with all of his pitches) 1.4 MPH to 95.4 MPH, and the cutter and curve performed well too. This was a very encouraging start, and it sure looks like Stone is ready to bounce back from his disaster 2023 season. Pitching development isn’t linear, and it just gets proven over and over again.

Brice Turang MIL, 2B/SS, 24.4 – Turang went 2 for 4 yesterday, and stole his league leading 4th bag. He went 26 for 30 with a 29.4 ft/sec sprint in 448 PA in 2023, and if he keeps running at this pace, he has all of the skills to be among the league leaders by the end of the season too. He’s off to a good start in general, going 6 for 11 with a 90.2 MPH EV. He’ll sit vs. most lefties, and Turang started last year hot too before cooling off, so I’m not going completely legit on this one. But there is category winning stolen base skills here.

Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 22.4 – I had Alvarez as the #2 overall dynasty catcher behind Adley, and I thought Adley had to watch his back as Alvarez was coming for the top spot. And Alvarez is taking his shot at the king early, having another good day at the dish, going 2 for 3 with a 109.9 MPH double. He’s now 5 for 10 with a double,  homer and 100.2 MPH EV. Adley is off to a great start as well, but he doesn’t have the homer power than Alvarez has in the tank, and in fantasy, power is king. Honestly, it’s just great to see some elite level hitting from the catcher position. Brings me back to the days of Pudge Rodriguez and Mike Piazza.

Kyle Isbel KCR, OF, 27.1 – I love patting myself on the back for my targets hitting, but Isbel looks like a miss for me. I was targeting Waters to win that starting CF job, but it was the presumed favorite, Isbel, who took it, and he’s running with it. He ripped a 105.5 MPH homer that cleared the fence in about half a second off Bailey Ober. He’s now 3 for 9 on the season with a homer, 98.4 MPH EV and 11.1% K%. His EV was pretty strong last year too at 89.4 MPH, and he doesn’t have a problem lifting the ball. The defense is plus, the speed is above average, and he gets the bat on the ball. He does a lot of things well, and I just whiffed on him. He has the skills to make a fantasy impact, and if he’s still out there in your league, it’s time to grab him.

Bailey Ober MIN, RHP, 28.2 – Speaking of Ober, he had a straight disaster season debut, going 1.1 IP with 9 hits, 8 ER, and a 3/1 K/BB vs. KCR. Bottom line here is to not panic. Can’t dive too deep into this one. He’ll find his rhythm. Don’t drop him yet.

Luis Campusano SDP, C, 25.6 – Campusano was another non target for me, and while he’s off to a good start, I’m still not buying in quite yet. He went 3 for 5 with a 106 MPH single, 92.4 MPH single, and 96.4 MPH homer that he barely snuck over the fence going the opposite way. He’s now 9 for 23 on the season, but it comes with a lowly 81.1 MPH EV and I just don’t love the batting stance. I think he can be solid, but I’m still questioning the upside. Not a buy for me yet.

Erick Fedde CHW, RHP, 31.1 – Fedde’s first start back in the states after refining his game in Korea was pretty encouraging, going 4.2 IP with 5 hits, 2 ER, and a 7/1 K/BB vs. a solid Detroit lineup. Most importantly, the swing and miss was up with a 28% whiff% on the back of the new splitter, which notched a 50% whiff%. The sinker missed bats too with a 33% whiff%, and the cutter induced weak contact with a 66.4 MPH EV against. It wasn’t a perfect outing, and I don’t think we are talking about a top of the rotation explosion here, but he can certainly enter useful fantasy starter territory.

 Jack Flaherty DET, RHP, 28.6 – Flaherty carried the spring success into the regular season, going 6 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 7/0 K/BB. Granted it was against Chicago’s weak lineup, but the stuff was still up across the board, and the slider was absolutely dominant with a 46% usage and 43% whiff%. He’s never thrown the slider that much, and that is another good sign that this isn’t the same Flaherty from the last few years. His bounce back looks real.

Brady Singer KC, RHP, 27.8 – 7 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 10/1 K/BB vs. MIN. We heard all off-season about Singer’s two new pitches, the 4-seamer and sweeper, so of course he didn’t throw the sweeper at all (and threw the sinker much more than the 4-seamer) and dominated with the old sinker/slider combo in this one. The slider in particular wreaked havoc with a 62% whiff%. I’m not sure what to think of him completing scraping his off-season plan, and then dominating by going back to basics. I guess the only reasonable response is that this isn’t for real, and not to buy in too hard other than taking a flier. But hard not to get excited after such a killer outing.

Davis Schneider TOR, 2B, 25.2 – Schneider got his first start of the season, and he did what he does with a dinger, walk, and 2 K’s in 5 PA. He’s going to have to wait his turn behind Biggio, IKF, and maybe even Ernie Clement (who I like), but it sure seems like the low BA, high OBP slugging profile will play if he gets in the lineup. Be patient with him. He’ll get more playing time one way or the other, and I think he’s for real.

Tyler O’Neill BOS, OF, 28.10 – Like any self respecting cast off Cardinals OF, O’Neill got out of St. Louis and immediately got to raking. He smoked his 2nd homer in 13 PA off Bryce Miller, and now has a 1.538 OPS with 2 homers, 1 steal, a 92.1 MPH EV and 7.7%/23.1% K%/BB%. I cautioned against selling O’Neill too low in my Top 1,000 blurb for him, writing, “I would caution against selling O’Neill too low.” This is why. He looks healthy, and he has the talent to blow up all over again.

Esteury Ruiz OAK, OF, 25.2/Victor Scott STL, OF, 23.2 – The Ruiz vs. Scott debates remind me of those super heated debates in 5th grade over who the fastest kid in school was. Shoutout Aaron Misas (RIP). But in 5th grade, we didn’t have Statcast, and in fantasy, we aren’t only concerned with speed. Ruiz went 2 for 4 yesterday and jacked his first bag of the season. He’s 3 for 7 on the season.  Scott went 2 for 3 with a double for his first 2 hits of the season and is now 2 for 14 with a steal. Ruiz is “crushing” the ball with a 86.6 MPH (82.7 MPH in 2023), while Scott is actually crushing the ball with a 92.2 MPH EV. It’s too early to say anything, and both have their own playing time issues, but it’s just a super fun one to follow.

 Junior Caminero TBR, 3B/SS, 20.9 – It’s so frustrating when we can’t watch one of the best young players in the game on the biggest stage, so we’ll have to settle for watching Caminero’s insanely explosive swing crush homers in Triple-A. It was his first of the year and he’s obviously already destroying the level with a 170 wRC+ in 3 games. I guess Tampa is waiting for that extra year of service time. He should be up already, but it is what it is. And he also hurt his quad in this game, so that makes it easy for Tampa to manipulate his service time now.

Coby Mayo BAL, 1B/3B, 22.4 – Speaking of elite power hitting youngsters who should be up already, Mayo decimated his first homer of the year as well, pulling a 421 foot, 111.3 MPH bomb. He now has a 162 wRC+ in 3 games. Baltimore at least has an excuse, because they are jam packed on the MLB level. This next guy made the roster, but can’t even get any run …

Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 24.0/Austin Hays BAL, OF, 28.9 – Pinch hitter Colton Cowser went 0 for 1 yesterday, and 1 for 1 with a double on Saturday. I’ve never really seen a team turn a legit top prospect into a pinch hitter to start their career, but who am I to question Baltimore? The man standing in Cowser’s way, Austin Hays, went 0 for 3 and now has a .490 OPS in 13 PA. Baltimore is only going to play around for so long, and at some point, the cream will rise to the top. Hays is going to have to start hitting real soon, and hitting real well, to keep that full time job. Cowser is coming for it.

Trey Sweeney LAD, SS, 23.11 – Gavin Lux shouldn’t get too comfortable (4 for 20 with a .400 OPS), because LA has a ready made middle infielder who is putting the pressure on at Triple-A. Sweeney unloaded for his first dinger at 105.2 MPH. LA has vets on the bench that can also take over for Lux, so it’s not like it’s purely Sweeney vs. Lux, but Sweeney is an underrated close to the majors bat to keep an eye on.

Juan Brito CLE, 2B/3B, 22.6 – The smooth swinging, switch hitting Brito went deep as a righty for his first homer at Triple-A. I know that Cleveland has like 900 guys with a similar profile, but don’t sleep on Brito. He hasn’t put up a wRC+ less than 125 at any level, and the swing is just so easy and clean. He might need injuries to hit, but he has the potential to be a rock solid hitter on the MLB level.

Mason Black SFG, RHP, 24.4/Cristian Mena ARI, RHP, 21.3 – Black and Mena both had strong outings at Triple-A. Black went 5 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER and a 5/0 K/BB. Mena went 5 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB. The problem is, neither really has the velocity to get overly excited about. Black sat 91.9 MPH while Mena sat 92.6 MPH. Velo isn’t everything, but I do think it limits their upside. Mena’s breaking balls dominated (slider, curve), and Black’s fastballs dominated (sinker, 4-seamer), so they can be successful without the huge velocity, there is just levels to this. Solid pitching prospects, but not great ones.

Rowdy Tellez PIT, 1B, 29.0 –– I promised you I wasn’t going to mention every Pirates win in the last Rundown, but I might have lied 😉 … or at least until they lose one. Tellez rocketed a 106.6 MPH 3 run homer to eventually propel Pitt to victory in the 10th. They are now tied for the best record in baseball at 4-0. I’ve gone full blown Pirates fan this year after touting them all off-season as a team that is going to surprise. In the 20 Dynasty Baseball Strategies/Thoughts for 2024 (#16), I warned you that “The Rise of the Pirates is definitely coming,” and it is here. Hope you got in on that over bet (and I put in a WS bet too).

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-DYNASTY RUNDOWNS AND MONTHLY DYNASTY & PROSPECTS RANKINGS UPDATES
-TOP 55 PROSPECTS RANKINGS FOR 2024 ONLY
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-TOP 11+ 2025 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST
-POSITION BY POSTION TARGET ARTICLES
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern) 
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Spring Dynasty Baseball Rundown (3/4/24)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Spring Dynasty Baseball Rundown (3/4/24):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS (these get released on IBW in very late March, right before the season starts)
-TOP 500 2024 PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 132 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (+Target & Strategy Guide)
-POSITION BY POSTION TARGET ARTICLES
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-TOP 11+ 2025 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET

Zack Littell TBR, RHP, 28.6 – You have to be a damn fool to doubt Tampa in any way, and mama didn’t raise no fool. With Shane Baz announcing he is on a delayed schedule until “early to mid-season,” Littell looks locked into a rotation spot, and he’s now someone I’m going after everywhere. He went against essentially Minnesota’s real lineup yesterday and went 3 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER, and a 1/1 K/BB. He now has a 0.00 ERA with a 4/1 K/BB in 5 IP on the spring. The velocity was down a tick, but assuming he’s just easing into things, his 94+ MPH fastball in 2023 was actually already very good with with a strong .290 xwOBA and 21.8% whiff%. His control entered elite territory with a 3.2% BB%, and while his secondaries aren’t great, he added a sweeper to the arsenal in the 2nd half which was immediately his best secondary with a .247 xwOBA and 30% whiff%. He’s also been working on the now very popular splitter that he’s been incorporating into him arsenal more and more over the past couple years. If he really takes off with any of his secondaries, he’s going to be a major issue, and even if he doesn’t, double plus control of a good fastball will play. I mean, how many times does Tampa have to pull a rabbit of their hat for us to even stop questioning it even a little? Littell is currently going 344th overall in the NFBC and is going to be an afterthought in so many dynasty leagues. Easiest call ever is to grab this guy from the bargain bin in all league sizes.

Josue De Paula LAD, OF, 18.10 – I ranked Josue De Paula 6th overall in my Predicting the Top 50 2025 Prospects Rankings last week, writing, “Seeing Josue De Paula’s name is giving me visions of Scarface, directed by Brian De Palma, and all I can hear is “Say hello to my little friend.” That is what De Paula is going to be saying to minor league pitching as his power explodes in a major way. And combined with his elite approach, it’s going to be shades of Juan Soto all over again.” … And then right on cue he jacked out an opposite field homer off a sidearm lefty on a pitch that was in on his hands. One spring at bat, one homer. I wasn’t lying when I said we are about to see an explosion.

Erick Fedde CHW, RHP, 31.1 – We got our first look at Fedde and his reworked secondaries coming over from winning MVP in Korea, and if making Mike Trout look foolish on a slider is impressive to you, which it should be, I would say the secondaries looked impressive. He went 2 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 3/1 K/BB vs. LA’s real lineup, so he didn’t dominate, but seeing the swing and miss was the most important part after putting up a 16.4% K% in 2022. I’m not ready to reach for him, but I’ll still happily try to nab him slightly before the last couple rounds. If someone beats me to the punch, so be it.

Garrett Crochet CHW, LHP, 23.9 – Crochet might be the most exciting development out of Sox camp so far, and he pitched another crisp outing, going 2 IP with 0 hits, 0 ER, and a 3/0 K/BB. Here is he getting Trout looking for a called strike 3. Every Sox pitcher was eating off Trout yesterday. Crochet is rocking a windup that the Rockettes would be proud of, which shows off the athleticism, and he’s already hit 100 MPH this spring. He finally looks fully healthy coming off Tommy John surgery, and if Chicago was serious about using him the rotation, I don’t see how he’s not winning one of those jobs right now. He might be entering major target territory.

Juan Soto NYY, OF, 25.6 – 2 for 3 with a homer that showed off both his elite bat control and elite power. He now has a 2.616 OPS with 3 homers in 11 PA. The career year he was supposed to have in the shortened 2020 season, the one where he had the highest xwOBA in Statcast history (.475 xwOBA), is the one the baseball gods owe him over a full season in his contract year. He ranks 7th overall on my Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings (patreon), and 3rd overall on my Top 450 OBP Dynasty Rankings (patreon).

DL Hall MIL, LHP, 25.6 – 2 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER, 1/1 K/BB vs. some of Arizona’s real lineup. The fastball sat 95.4 MPH with a 29% whiff%, and he threw all 3 secondaries for called strikes. He then did a post game interview with a massive ball of chew in his mouth, which is exactly what a ballplayer should look like. He talked about pounding the zone and being economical with his pitches, which is exactly what he needs to do, because his nasty stuff will do the rest. He’s one of my favorite pitcher targets headed into 2024, and has been from before he even got traded.

Matt Manning DET, RHP, 26.2/Casey Mize DET, RHP, 26.11 – Manning went 3 IP, with 1 hit, 1 ER, and 4/0 K/BB, and Mize went 2 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 2/2 K/BB vs. half of the Yanks real lineup (including Judge and Soto). Manning and Mize both got a much needed infusion of velocity this spring with their fastballs up 2 MPH to 95.4 MPH. It’s actually eerie how identical that is. There must be something in the water out there in Detroit. It makes me more likely to take a flier on them, but they still aren’t in target territory, because beyond the fastball, their biggest issue is lack of a standout secondary, and I’m not sure you can claim either has found that yet even with the added velocity. Mize didn’t record a single whiff on a secondary and Manning put up a 33% on the slider which is solid, but nothing to write home about. Their values are on the way up, but I would still have some caution.

Jung Hoo Lee SFG, OF, 25.7 – It’s becoming quite clear that all of the skills are transferring over stateside. Lee went 1 for 2 with a steal and 0/1 K/BB, and is now slashing .455/.500/.818 with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 8.3%/8.3% K%/BB% in 12 PA. The high GB% is also transferring with a 60% GB%. He’s exactly who we thought he was. A .300/15/15 season is definitely within reach, and if he runs more than we think, that is where his fantasy upside will come from.

Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 24.0 – Cowser showed off some of that lift and pull with a 32 degree launch, 98 MPH homer off a Martin Perez 88.6 MPH fastball. Granted, I probably could turn around an 88 MPH fastball too (by probably, I mean 100% not), but especially with Camden Yard’s dimensions, he’s going to have to pull and lift the ball a lot more than he’s done in the minors if he wants to get to all of his power. This was his 3rd homer in 16 PA, and the first one that was pulled. Cowser continues to seem to be the odd man out, but he’s going to make it as tough as possible on Baltimore to make a decision, which is all you can ask of him.

Chris Sale ATL, LHP, 35.0 – 2.2 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 5/2 K/BB vs. the Phillies scrubs+Bohm. I mean just look at this utter filth from that arm angle. Is he kidding me? Safe to say the stuff is as good as ever. He had some velocity fluctuations last year, so I don’t think his freshness in spring means he can keep it up all season, but better to see him healthy and throwing filth than to be sitting low 90’s. Your guess is as good as mine as to if he can stay 100% healthy, but if he does, he’s going to rack up strikeouts no problem.

Kutter Crawford BOS, RHP, 28.0 – 3 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 4/0 K/BB vs. Toronto’s Quad-A+Kirk lineup. Here he is blowing the fastball by Davis Schneider. And I don’t say “blowing by” lightly. That is the textbook definition. Crawford was one of my favorite sleepers since I wrote the Boston Red Sox Team Report back in early December, but he’s had too much shine on his name recently, and you can’t really call him a sleeper anymore. I hope you were able to trade for him when I was hyping him early. He’s damn good, and everyone realizes it now.

Davis Schneider TOR, 2B, 25.2 – Kutter isn’t the only one blowing pitches by Schneider, as he went 1 for 3 with 2 K’s and now has a 50% K% in 14 PA. The 37.3% whiff% and 30.5% K% were the two majors reasons I preached caution on Schneider this off-season, and at the very least, this spring showing is not assuaging my concerns. I’m not against taking him if the price is right, I actually took him in the 3rd round of my 18 team off-season prospect draft because I need the 2B depth, but make sure the price is right.

Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 24.5 – 2 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 2/2 K/BB vs. about half of Pitt’s real lineup. Grayson wasn’t that great in his first outing either. It’s clear he’s far from mid-season form with the fastball down 1.5 MPH to 95.9 MPH and the slider down 2.6 MPH to 79.7 MPH. He’s also working on a new 2-seamer/sinker that he is trying to mix in. You obviously shouldn’t put much stock in this early spring performance, but it’s worth noting he wasn’t good in the first half of 2023 and didn’t find his rhythm until the 2nd half. If he does get off to a slow start this season, remember not to panic. He’ll find his stride eventually.

Rhett Lowder CIN, RHP, 22.1 – 2 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 0/1 K/BB vs. most of KC’s real lineup. We know Lowder is a safe college arm, but how much upside he’s going to have against MLB hitters is the question, and this outing definitely didn’t highlight that upside. He’s obviously just getting his feet wet, so it doesn’t mean much, but at the same time this is the first time we’re seeing him against that advanced competition, so I think it’s worth mentioning.

Nestor Cortes NYY, LHP, 29.4 – 4 IP, 1 hit, 1 ER, 3/1 K/BB vs. Detroit’s mostly backups lineup. Cortes’ 2023 season ended because of a shoulder injury, so the most important thing is to see him healthy, and he looks healthy. The fastball sat 92.4 MPH, up 0.8 MPH from last year, and he notched a 31% whiff% overall. The injury still adds future injury risk, but he looks ready to go for 2024.

Alejandro Kirk TOR, C, 24.9 – Kirk badly needs to find his power again after his EV tanked to 87.6 MPH in 2023, and his homer yesterday sure seems to indicate he may have found it. He crushed a bomb over the replica monster for his 2nd in 11 PA. Toronto’s lackluster off-season is good news for Kirk and Jansen, because they should each be able to find enough at bats to be in the startable catcher range for most leagues.

Gabriel Moreno ARI, C, 24.1 – Moreno’s playoff homer fest has continued into spring with him launching a 38 degree, 400 foot homer off Freddy Peralta for his first of spring. He still has a 66.7% GB% in 12 PA, and his 51.2% GB% was high in the playoffs too, so I don’t think the homer explosion is showing a change in approach. He’s going to be a really really good hitter, but I don’t think he’s going to hit for enough homer power to be an elite fantasy catcher.

Jeferson Quero MIL, C, 21.6 – Quero smashed his first spring homer on a 100.2 MPH shot he had to go down to get, showing off the bat control and power. I would be much higher on Quero if he wasn’t completely blocked, but he’s completely blocked with William Contreras in town, and I don’t think Milwaukee has any intention to trade him.

Gavin Stone LAD, RHP, 25.6 – 3 IP, 2 hit, 0 ER, 1/0 K/BB vs. a depleted Rockies lineup. My money is on Sheehan to take that final starter spot, and my money is on Sheehan long term as well to be the better pitcher, but that doesn’t mean I don’t think Stone will bounce back from a rough 2023. The changeup is legit, he fired off a few crisp breaking balls in this outing, and I trust the Dodgers to improve his fastball command. It’s a jampacked rotation with more talent on the way, so Stone isn’t guaranteed anything, but I do think he can be a good MLB starter. Just not one I’m targeting quite yet.

Jordan Hicks SFG, RHP, 27.7 – The Jordan Hicks experiment is not going smoothly in the early going. He had his 2nd rough outing, going 2.2 IP with 5 hits, 2 ER, and a 2/2 K/BB in 2.2 IP. He already talked about how he isn’t going to sit anywhere close to 100 MPH like he did out of the bullpen, which he obviously doesn’t need to to still have nasty stuff, but quite frankly, he wasn’t even all that dominant out of the bullpen with that level of stuff. He had a 1.36 WHIP last year. As a starter with less stuff, what kind of numbers do you think we will be looking at? I have a sneaking suspicion this might be a short lived experiment with Carson Whisenhunt and Mason Black knocking on the door, along with the Blake Snell rumors intensifying and Ray and Cobb coming off the IL at some point. As a high upside flier of course I get it, but I wouldn’t reach for him.

Caden Dana LAA, RHP, 20.4 – The 20 year old Dana is already in major league camp, which tells you how much LA loves this kid, or it tells you how barren their farm system is, but either way, he’s exciting. He handled his business against a rough (not in a good way) Chicago lineup, going 2 IP with 1 hit, 1 ER, and a 2/1 K/BB. He has a legit plus fastball/slider combo that is already doing damage against MLB vets. He’s set to fly up rankings in 2024.

Kevin Alcantara CHC, OF, 21.8 – The forgotten Unicorn smoothly and easily demolished a ball out of the deep center for his first spring homer. Alcantara gets some criticism for his swing getting out of sync, but that looked pretty damn synced up to me there. He’s also struck out 3 times in 8 PA and had a 33.3% K% in 5 games in his first taste of Double-A, so watching that K% will be super important.

Jonny Farmelo SEA, OF, 19.7 – Farmelo didn’t debut in 2023, so he wasn’t able to get the hype going like some of his other high school brethren, but he’s trying to make up for lost time. He showed off the legs yesterday ripping a ball down the line that he turned into a stand up triple. He’s now 2 for 4 with 2 K’s. That kind of speed from a 6’2”, 205 pound frame is so easy to dream on.

Cade Marlowe SEA, OF, 26.9 – I named Marlowe an “if he had playing time” target, and he showed why going deep off Yu Darvish for his first spring homer. But he still doesn’t have a playing time, which can make it hard to roster a guy like this. At the very least put him on your watch list and jump on him when he does get his shot, because he showed encouraging skills in his MLB debut in 2023. He was a plus defensive player, with plus speed (28.9 ft/sec sprint), an above average barrel% (7.3%), a 112 wRC+, a 12% BB%, and a not horrible 29.4% whiff% (despite a 33% K%). If he does work his way into playing time, he has a very intriguing fantasy profile, especially in OBP leagues.

Kyle Stowers BAL, OF, 26.3 – If Cowser can’t find a job, I don’t know how Stowers is going to be able to do it. I’m doing my darndest to not get sucked back into Stowers, but it’s hard not to when I still firmly believe he can be an MLB masher if given the chance. He cracked a 101.8 MPH single today and now has a 1.308 OPS with 3 homers in 16 PA on the spring. He crushed 17 homers with a 93.8 MPH EV in just 68 games at Triple-A in 2023. I just can’t trust Baltimore to ever give him a chance if history is any indication, and they have more highly touted guys than him blocked.

Estiven Florial CLE, OF, 26.5 – I like Florial as a late round dart throw as much as the next guy, but there is a reason the Yanks gave him away for peanuts. He went 0 for 3 with 3 K’s yesterday and is now hitting .077 with a 50% K% in 16 PA. The Yanks seemed certain the hit tool wasn’t going to play, and so far, it’s not playing.

Nolan Schanuel LAA, 1B, 22.1 – This is your regularly scheduled Nolan Schanuel power check … 1 for 3 with a single. He’s now 6 for 19 with 6 singles, which is good for a .316 BA and .316 SLG. New year, same guy …

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS (these get released on IBW in very late March, right before the season starts)
-TOP 500 2024 PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 132 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (+Target & Strategy Guide)
-POSITION BY POSTION TARGET ARTICLES
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-TOP 11+ 2025 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Spring Training Opening Day Dynasty Baseball Rundown

As usual, I’m doing Dynasty Baseball Rundowns all Spring, with most of them coming on the Patreon, and a few coming on the Brick Wall like this one (usually on Monday’s, but I’ll make an exception for Spring Training Opening Day). Along with the Rundowns, I have the Top 10 2025 FYPD Rankings, Predicting the Top 50 2025 Prospects Rankings, and an only 2024 Prospects Rankings coming soon on the Patreon. Plus so much more that is already up there, but first, here is the Spring Training Opening Day Dynasty Baseball Rundown:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON & SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 500 2024 PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 132 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (+Target & Strategy Guide)
-POSITION BY POSTION TARGET ARTICLES
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET

Yuki Matsui SDP, Closer Committee, 28.5 – And our first Spring Training hype train has officially left the station. Matsui struck out the rusty Gavin Lux coming off major knee surgery with his career .587 OPS vs. lefties, followed up by doing the same to journeyman Chris Owings and his fearsome .650 career OPS, and then finally victimized the rusty Andy Pages coming off major shoulder surgery and his total of 4 PA above Double-A. What’s next, does Matsui want to strikeout my 72 year old father coming off double hip surgery? Then I’ll really be impressed. I’m only half kidding, because there is no denying he looked absolutely filthy out there. The lack of huge velocity doesn’t look like it’s going to be a problem, although crowning him after facing competition that was probably worse than he faced in Japan seems silly. Let’s see him against some legit MLB bats before we hand him the closer job, but having said that, if I’m Robert Suarez, I’m realizing I’m going to have to go out there and win that job. Considering one is a lefty and one is a righty, we seem headed for the dreaded committee right now.

Gavin Lux LAD, 2B/OF, 26.4 – Speaking of Gavin Lux, he genuinely looked completely lost up there vs Matsui, and looking at that career .587 OPS vs. lefties, I might be questioning how long LA is going to throw him out there vs. them. He got a base knock going back up the middle vs. a righty, and went 1 for 2 with a 1/1 K/BB on the day, so it was a good first game back overall, but it would be nice to see some decent at bats versus lefties this spring, or else I think he’s headed for a strong side of a platoon role.

Luis Campusano SDP, C, 25.6 – Luis Campusano’s new batting stance looks like the one they forced on the worst kid on your little league baseball team. He’s choked up halfway up the bat, which he combined with an open face stance and an insane leg kick. He literally never sets into hitting position before the pitch is thrown. He does a balancing act on one leg mid pitch to straighten out his body. I’ve never seen anything like it quite frankly. I already wasn’t super high on Camp, and this just cements my stance that he is not one of the young catchers I’m going after. I’m staying far away.

Joe Musgrove SDP, RHP, 31.4 – Me and Musgrove both pitched 0.0 innings in this game, but I didn’t give up a single earned run. Musgrove gave up 4 earned runs with 2 hits, 1 walk and 0 K’s. Especially for a vet like Musgrove, your first spring training outing is meaningless, but considering his 2023 season ended with a shoulder injury, it would have been nice to see him looking better than this. Obviously it’s way way way too early to panic, but if you were hoping to check off the “Musgrove looks completely healthy” box early in spring, you are going to have to wait.

Jackson Merrill SDP, SS, 20.11 – San Diego had Merrill out in LF, and there is talk of him breaking camp as their starting left fielder. There is nothing MLB teams love more than having a guy play one position his entire career, and then right as they are about to face the biggest challenge of their baseball lives, just throw them in a completely new position like a fish out of water. It’s mind boggling to me. If you didn’t think he was going to play SS for you on the MLB level, why wasn’t he given a shitload more time working on his ultimate position in the minors? Getting used to a new position (especially going from SS to LF) takes time and experience. It’s insane to move someone off their lifelong position right as they are about to get called up to the majors. And it’s a great way to get someone hurt. He didn’t look bad out there, and he’s a great athlete so I don’t think he’s going to be a bumbling fool at the position, but here he is making an awkward diving catch. I honestly don’t know if that play should impress me, or concern me. Here he is taking a circuitous route to catch a ball hit over his head. He made the play, but not pretty.

Andy Pages LAD, OF, 23.4 – Pages looks completely healthy coming off the shoulder surgery, and he smoked a ball the opposite way for his first spring hit, going 1 for 3 with 2 K’s on the day. He’s on his way to getting his hype back rolling, and he’s also on the precipice of a callup when LA needs OF reinforcements.

Gavin Stone LAD, RHP, 25.6 – Stone is ready to bounce back from a poor 2023, and he took the first step throwing a perfect inning with 1 K. The changeup is in mid-season form and he was hitting his spots with his fastball. He only attempted one slider, and it was a horrific, dinky hanger. It might be tough for him to really thrive against MLB hitters without a good breaking ball, and based on that one pitch, he hasn’t perfected it yet.

Ethan Salas SDP, C, 17.10 – The 17 year old Ethan Salas is in camp with the big league club, and he struck out in each of his 2 at bats. Is this just child abuse at this point? Why is San Diego so hellbent on rushing this literal underage child to the big leagues? Aren’t there labor laws on the books for something like this? Or does San Diego know he’s secretly already 25 years old or something? That would at least make it make sense.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON & SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 500 2024 PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 132 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (+Target & Strategy Guide)
-POSITION BY POSTION TARGET ARTICLES
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Boston Red Sox 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I like to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team, and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Boston Red Sox 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: TOP 76 C//TOP 98 1B
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100+ COMING SOON)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Baltimore Orioles (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

Pitchers

Kutter Crawford BOS, RHP, 28.0 – I told you guys to put a star next to Justin Steele’s name as you were filling out the middle to back half of your fantasy rotation last off-season, and I’m going to tell you to do the same with Kutter Crawford this off-season. He shares some similarities which made me like Steele last off-season, but they aren’t really direct comps. Crawford’s control jumped to above average levels with a 6.8% BB%, and it allowed his 93.6 MPH fastball (.268 xwOBA with a 26% whiff%) and 88.6 MPH cutter (.295 xwOBA with a 24.2% whiff%) to play as plus pitches. He throws a legit 6 pitch mix with his sweeper, splitter, and slider thriving in limited usage. It all led to a 4.04 ERA (3.25 xERA) with a 25.6% K% in 129.1 IP. The floor is pretty high, and he has some very real upside. I really, really like Kutter as a very reasonably priced target. 2024 Projection: 11/3.73/1.22/159 in 155 IP

Brayan Bello BOS, RHP, 24.10 – The good news is that Bello improved one of his biggest weaknesses, bringing his BB% down 3.4 percentage points to a well above average 6.7%, but the bad news is that basically everything else took a half step back. The velocity dropped 1.3 MPH to 95 MPH, the barrel% rose 1.6 percentage points to 7%, and the whiff% dropped 1.6 percentage points to 24.4%. It resulted in a good, but unexciting fantasy season with a 4.24 ERA and 19.8% K% in 157 IP. The floor is high with his ability to keep the ball on the ground (56.2% GB%), the stuff is still big, and the changeup is still plus with a .219 xwOBA and 38.7% whiff%, but the upside is lacking with the mediocre K rates. He was major buy for me last off-season, and everything I liked him about then, I still like about him now (plus the improved control), so he’s an easy hold for me this off-season. 2024 Projection: 11/3.94/1.28/150 in 165 IP

Chris Sale BOS, LHP, 35.0 – Sale was a bit rusty coming off a completely lost and chaotic 2022 season with a 8.22 ERA in his first 23 IP, but he performed like a true ace after that with a 3.16 ERA and 30.2%/6.0% K%/BB% in 79.2 IP. He can clearly still be an impact fantasy starter, but there are enough indications that what he did in those final 79.2 IP shouldn’t be expected over a full season. He missed over 2 months during that stretch with shoulder inflammation, and while he performed well afterwards, the velocity was spotty and shoulder injuries are scary. He hasn’t thrown a legitimate starter’s workload since 2019 (147.1 IP). And the stuff isn’t quite as good as his prime with his heavily used 4-seamer hitting a career worst .320 xwOBA and 23.4% whiff%. All of those negatives seem to already be factored into his price though with a NFBC ADP of 179, and his advanced age is sure to keep his price down in dynasty too, so he still makes for a very reasonable buy target for a win now team. 2024 Projection: 10/3.57/1.14/170 in 140 IP

Hitters

Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 24.3 – Casas has the potential to become one of the next great all around 1B mashers, and we saw what that could look like in the 2nd half of 2023. He slashed .317/.417/.617 with 15 homers and a 23.4%/14.2% K%/BB% in his final 54 games. He smashes the ball with a 91.1/95.2 MPH AVG/FB EV, he lifts the ball with a 15.7 degree launch, he hit lefties well with a .817 OPS, he has no contact issues, and he’s an OBP beast. His .371 xwOBA was in the top 8% of the league, and that includes his slow start. He also hits in a great ballpark. The 1B position is starting to age a bit with Votto, Goldy, and Freeman all getting up there, and I think Casas has the upside to be in the next generation of greats to take their place. I don’t think he will get quite the respect he deserves this off-season. 2024 Projection: 93/32/94/.273/.375/.520/1

Jarren Duran BOS, OF, 27.7 – Ceddanne Rafaela is pretty clearly Boston’s starting CF of the future, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a path to playing time for Duran both in the short term and long term. Rafaela hasn’t established himself yet, Alex Verdugo is in his final year of team control with trade rumors already swirling around him, Masataka Yoshida looks like he’ll be doing a lot of DH’ing, and the unproven Wilyer Abreu (who I like) is penciled into one of the OF spots. That leaves plenty of avenues for playing time for Duran even if Boston brings in a free agent or two, and he has the type of fantasy profile to go after. His hit tool took a big step forward in 2023 with a 24.9% K% (28.3% in 2022), and it was even better in the 2nd half with a 17.6% K% in his final 142 PA. The contact improvements allowed his double plus speed (29.5 ft/sec sprint with 24 steals in 102 games) and at least above average raw power (89.9 MPH EV with 8 homers and a .295 BA) to shine. He was definitely on the lucky side with a .266 xBA, but luck is the residue of design, and when you hit the ball hard with his kind of speed, good things happen. His season ended in late August with a toe injury that required surgery, but he should be good to go for 2024, and I would use any job/injury uncertainty to your advantage this off-season. 2024 Projection: 78/16/69/.264/.329/.428/29

Bullpen

Kenley Jansen BOS, Closer, 36.6 – Jensen is certainly passed his prime with career worsts in K% (27.7%), EV against (89.9 MPH), xFIP (4.61), and xERA (3.16), but he’s far from washed up. His velocity jumped two ticks to near career highs with a 94.3 MPH cutter, and the slider is still plus with a 37.5% whiff%. The days of him putting up a 1.32 ERA with a 42.2%/2.7% K%/BB% are over, but a low 3’s ERA with a 30%/9%% K%/BB% is still well within reach. 2024 Projection: 4/3.39/1.15/79/34 saves in 62 IP

Boston Red Sox Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Roman Anthony BOS, OF, 19.11 – I ended Anthony’s 2023 Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “There is a lot of refinement needed, but this is a high upside bat who could explode up rankings if everything comes together.” … well, everything came together and Anthony exploded up rankings, slashing .272/.403/.466 with 14 homers, 16 steals, and a 24.2%/17.5% K%/BB% in 106 games at mostly Single-A (109 wRC+) and High-A (164 wRC+). It was a little concerning that the K% jumped to 30.6% at High-A, but then he closed out the season at Double-A and had a 185 wRC+ with a 13.6%/18.2% K%/BB% in 10 games. And he did all this starting the season as an 18 year old. He’s an elite athlete at 6’2”, 200 pounds with a plus power/speed combo, powerful lefty swing, and a mature plate approach. He’s not a completely finished product yet as he’s not great at lifting the ball with an under 25% Flyball%, and he wasn’t a great base stealer with 16 steals in 23 attempts, but he hits the ball so hard he can survive without a huge launch, and he has time to refine his base stealing skills as well, so neither are major concerns. He’s on a short list to be the #1 overall prospect in baseball by this time next year. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 96/25/88/.273/.358/.472/16

2) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 21.4 – Mayer feels like he’s getting a bit of the treatment Noelvi Marte got last year. He was on a beeline for elite prospect status until there was an abrupt, general cooling on him throughout the industry, but like with Marte, I’m not sure it’s warranted. That sweet and vicious lefty swing obliterated the age appropriate High-A, slashing .290/.366/.524 with 7 homers, 5 steals, and a 22.%/10.4% K%/BB% in 35 games. He scuffled when he got to Double-A with a 63 wRC+, but there are multiple reasons to not get scared off by that. He was very young for the level, he was battling though a shoulder injury that eventually ended his season, and a .220 BABIP was really the biggest issue as 6 homers with a 25.8% K% in 43 games isn’t bad at all. He’s not that fast, but he’s a good enough base stealer to nab a handful of bags, and the strikeout rates have been higher than optimal, but the has the type of swing that can hit for both average and power even with a slightly higher strikeout rate. There are also only improvements coming from here. He’s right on track to become one of the better complete hitters in the game, especially hitting in Fenway. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 91/27/93/.272/.351/.484/9

3) Ceddanne Rafaela BOS, OF, 23.6 – Rafaela’s MLB debut was rough with a 74 wRC+, .238 xwOBA and 85.5 MPH EV in 89 PA, which fanned the flames of concern that he is too small (5’8″) to excel at the highest levels, but I’m using it as a buying opportunity. His floor is very high with at least plus CF defense and plus speed (39 steals and a 28.7 ft/sec sprint). He’s always had a good feel to hit (21.9% K% at Triple-A), he hit the ball hard in the upper minors with a 89.1 MPH EV, and he’s never had any groundball issues. He has a poor plate approach with a low BB% (5.5%) and high chase rates, but I don’t think that will hold him back while he’s in his physical prime. Cedric Mullins with a tick worse plate approach is the comp. 2024 Projection: 47/10/38/.245/.302/.401/15 Prime Projection:  87/18/68/.261/.318/.422/31

4) Kyle Teel BOS, C, 22.1 – Selected 14th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Teel is a better real life prospect than fantasy prospect like most prospect catchers. He has a hit over power profile, slashing .407/.475/.655 with 13 homers, 5 steals, and a 36/32 K/BB in 65 ACC games. He backed up that profile in pro ball, slashing .363/.483/.495 with 2 homers, 3 steals, and a 19.3%/18.4% K%/BB% in 26 games split between 3 levels (rookie, High-A, Double-A). He’s a good athlete, so he could nab a few bases which is nice for a catcher, and he immediately becomes Boston’s best catcher prospect, so he could move relatively fast through the system. Fenway is a great hitter’s park too which should help his profile play up. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/16/71/.281/.352/.433/8

5) Blaze Jordan BOS, 3B/1B, 21.3 – Blaze is one of those prospects where every time I fly him up rankings in early rankings drafts, I get cold feet after looking them over a few times because he isn’t a good defensive player, he hits lefties much better than righties, and he’s yet to truly show that prodigious power he was known for as an amateur. But then I move him too far down the rankings, and get FOMO when I think about a 20 year old with big raw power, great contact rates, and great production. He slashed .324/.385/.533 with 12 homers and a 14.6%/8.7% K%/BB% in 73 games at High-A. It was good for a 145 wRC+. He then went to Double-A and hit 6 homers with a 13.8% K% in 49 games. He can look a bit stiff at the plate, but he’s talked about losing weight and working on his body this off-season, which will only help him both offensively and defensively at a very strong 6’2”, 220 pounds. As a pure bat, there is a lot to love, and if he can improve defensively this off-season, it would make prospect rankers feel a lot more comfortable about him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 75/25/84/.269/.332/.465/3

6) Wilyer Abreu BOS, OF, 24.10 – I had a lot of in-season Target article hits this year, ringing the five alarm bell on a bunch of guys right at the first sign of a sprouting breakout and before they were even close to getting the respect they deserved (Nolan Jones and Zack Gelof, among others, were my best calls), but my favorite call was probably the one I made on Wilyer Abreu. Here is what I wrote about Abreu on August 3rd, “ This one is probably more for my deep leaguers out there, but there is something I really love about Abreu that I just can’t shake. And that something is probably his sweet, sweet lefty swing. It’s resulted in 14 homers with a 89.6 MPH EV in 71 games at Triple-A. It also comes with a solid 22.3%/16% K%/BB% and a cannon for an arm in rightfield. I don’t think he is going to be a league winner, but I think he has a chance to be a rock solid MLB player.” … From that point forward, Abreu went absolutely bonkos, hitting 8 homers in just 15 games at Triple-A, and then earning a call up to the majors where he put up a ridiculous 135 wRC+ in 85 PA. It’s almost like I had a crystal ball on that one. He continued to hit the ball hard in the majors with a 91.3 MPH EV, he likes to run with 3 steals (8 steals at AAA), and the plate approach was solid with a 27.1%/10.6% K%/BB%. I still think he’s more of an impact player for medium to deeper leagues rather than shallow leagues, but he more than proved he can be a good big leaguer in the long run. 2024 Projection: 47/14/54/.242/.319/.423/6 Prime Projection: 76/24/82/.257/.338/.453/9

7) Miguel Bleis BOS, OF, 20.1 – Bleis was the anti-Junior Caminero in 2023. Everyone wants to know which prospects can blow up from outside Top 50’s into elite prospect range, and Bleis and Caminero were both popular picks to do that this year. Caminero obviously fulfilled that elite prospect destiny, while Bleis completely imploded in on himself. He struggled hard at Single-A with 1 homer, 11 steals, a 26.8%/7.0% K%/BB%, and 71 wRC+ in 31 games, and then his season ended on May 30th with a shoulder injury that required surgery. The superstar traits are still there with a lightning quick swing, projectable power, and plus speed, but he didn’t seem all that close to putting it together in 2023, and the shoulder injury adds further risk. He’s not an overtly imposing presence at a skinny 6 feet, so he needs to tack on more muscle to reach his power potential, and the plate approach is below average. He can still obviously reach his elite prospect potential, but every year he doesn’t do it, the odds of it happening get a little lower. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection:  75/22/77/.255/.322/.438/24

8) Yordanny Monegro BOS, RHP, 21.5 – Monegro is a projectable 6’4”, 180 pounds with nasty stuff and a starter’s pitch mix. He throws a mid 90’s fastball with good movement, to go along with 2 plus breaking balls that he has full confidence in and will throw in any count, both in and out of the zone. He also mixes in a decent a changeup. He was too much for the lower minors with a 2.06 ERA and 34.6%/9.7% K%/BB% in 65.2 IP at rookie ball, Single-A, and High-A. He doesn’t have pinpoint control, but he’s not majorly wild either. Boston has a bunch of arms with similar value to Monegro, but I like his combination of upside and likelihood of sticking as a starter the most. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/3.93/1.31/160 in 155 IP

9) Nick Yorke BOS, 2B, 22.0 – A 24.1% K% and .268 BA at Double-A isn’t exactly super encouraging for a player who you are mostly buying for the hit tool. There also isn’t a clear path to playing time with Story under contract through 2027, Marcelo Mayer very likely ahead of him on the depth chart, and many others with similar skillsets to Yorke in the organization as well. And to top it all off, he isn’t a particularly good defensive player. But Yorke showed a good enough all around collection of skills/tools to stick with him. He hit 13 homers with 18 steals, a 10.1% BB% and 116 wRC+ in 110 games as a barely 21 year old in the upper minors. The Sox took him 17th overall in 2020, and when a team invests so much into a player, they usually want to give him every opportunity to succeed. His perceived name value is probably greater than his actual value, but he can still be a solid all around contributor at peak. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/18/71/.267/.332/.426/14

10) Wikelman Gonzalez BOS, RHP, 22.0 – There is no doubt that Gonzalez has fire stuff with a nightmare mid to upper 90’s fastball that gets a ton of whiffs to go along with a plus breaking ball and a solid changeup. It led to a 3.96 ERA with a 35.2% K% in 111.1 IP at High-A and Double-A. The problem is that his control is in the major danger zone with a 14.7% BB%. He can survive with below average control, but he needs to improve to even reach below average, so his most likely role will be out of the bullpen. It’s closer type stuff though. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 4/3.45/1.22/81/25 saves in 65 IP

Just Missed

11) Chase Meidroth BOS, 3B/2B, 22.8

12) Brainer Bonaci BOS, SS/2B, 21.9

13) Yoelin Cespedes BOS, SS, 18.7

14) Nazzan Zanetello BOS, SS, 18.10

15) Luis Perales BOS, RHP, 21.0

16) Angel Bastardo BOS, RHP, 21.9

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Jumping off from the Miguel Bleis blurb, every dynasty owner wants that shooting star prospect who “came out of nowhere,” but I would be careful about building your system with 100% of these players. Bleis is the dark side of that strategy, and before you know it, you could have an entire farm system full of nearly worthless prospects who showed glimpses in the DSL or rookie ball a few years ago, while your competition rosters and graduates the Matt McLain’s and Spencer Steer’s of the world. Of course you want a nice percentage of pure young upside, but make you sure you are dipping into other buckets of prospects as well to diversify your risk. And you don’t have to always forgo upside to do it with the Blake Dunn’s of the world available for reasonable prices (I’m not intentionally only naming Cincinnati players, hah).

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Baltimore Orioles (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: TOP 76 C//TOP 98 1B
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100+ COMING SOON)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (9/11/23)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (9/11/23):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-SEPTEMBER TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-AUGUST TOP 379 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-7 END OF SEASON STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: AUGUST MAILBAG! (8/25/23)
-TOP 38 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (8/15/23)
-TOP 17 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (8/3/23)
-Off-Season content includes team prospect lists, deep positional rankings, strategy articles, and very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.7 – It turns out even Martians have UCL’s, and they apparently aren’t that sturdy as the The Martian tore his UCL and will require Tommy John surgery that could keep him out through the first half of 2024 as well. Tommy John surgery isn’t as big a deal for hitters as it is for pitchers, but it feels like it came at the worst possible time with him in the midst of a historic MLB debut with 4 homers in his first 8 games. He checked in at #97 on the September Top 476 Dynasty Baseball Rankings that dropped on the Patreon last week, but with the injury, I might drop him more towards the 120 range.

Noelvi Marte CIN, SS, 21.10 – These rookies are dropping like flies. Marte broke his nose after getting hit in the face playing catch with Elly De La Cruz. I always hated getting paired up with the kid who threw a 90 MPH tailing fastball in warmups, but unlike Marte, I always managed to actually catch the ball. Score one for Halp. On the other hand, I did break my nose while playing basketball my freshman year of college, and the ER doctor just said, “yup, it’s broken,” and sent me back out there with nothing they could do for it. I sat out a few days of my volleyball class before getting bored and deciding to play through it. I’m assuming Marte will do the same. He was in the midst of shoving it in all the scouts faces who called him fat and slow this off-season with 6 steals and a 28.8 ft/sec sprint speed, which is in the top 14 percent of the league. I feel like speed grades are by far the least reliable from scouts. He was also crushing the ball with a 92.4 MPH EV. All signs point towards him being a fantasy beast.

Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 21.5/Wyatt Langford TEX, OF, 21.8 – In my 7 End of Season Strategies and Thoughts (Patreon) article, I wrote that your focus should be on 2023 draftees, because that is where the largest swings in value will occur this late in the season, and right now, the first swing in value could be happening at the very top of the FYPD rankings. Crews continues to surprisingly struggle hard at Double-A with a measly 39 wRC+ in 16 games, while Langford recently got the call to the level and keeps on rolling with a 142 wRC+ in 6 games. They were already 1A and 1B for me in the rankings, and their Double-A performance could be tipping the scales to Langford for that top spot. It’s still obviously a small sample, and I would be very happy with either, but if I were picking today, I’m going Langford.

Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.9 – Holliday finally met a level he couldn’t just dominate right from the jump with a 64 wRC+, 0 homers and 0 steals in 6 games at Triple-A, but I’m sure the hot streak is coming as he went 2 for 3 with a double and 2 walks last night, and he has an elite 10%/16.7% K%/BB%. I mentioned in the August Top 379 Prospects Rankings that the one blemish (I wouldn’t even really call it a blemish, more of a smudge) on his profile is that the power/speed combo has slowed down in the upper minors with only 3 homers and 3 steals in his last 42 games. He has only 10 homers in 113 games on the season. He’s only 19, and the season he just had is ridiculous for his age, so it seems silly to even mention, but when there is another uber 19 year old in Jackson Chourio right behind him, it’s at least something to think about if you are choosing between the 2 in startup dynasty drafts this off-season.

Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.6 – Speaking of Chourio, he hits dingers in his sleep, and he smacked his 22nd of the season at Double-A going the opposite way. It also comes with 41 steals. We got a couple of really fun debates coming up this off-season at both the top of first year player drafts (Crews vs. Langford) and at the top of prospect drafts (Holliday vs. Chourio).

Paul Skenes PIT, RHP, 21.2/Yoshinobu Yamamoto FA, RHP, 25.1 – The fun debates don’t end with the hitters, because we have one brewing with who should be the first pitcher off the board in First Year Player Drafts as well. While everyone is slicing and dicing Skenes fastball shape, Yamamoto is out there pitching no hitters in Japan on Friday. He’s having a spotless season with a 1.20 ERA and 152/24 K/BB in 150 IP. He has the filthy stuff, plus control, plus durability, diverse pitch mix, plus strikeout rates, athletic delivery  … there is nothing he doesn’t have, and I think he will make it very tough to pass him up in favor of Skenes. Right now, I have Yamamoto as the top dog.

Druw Jones ARI, OF, 19.8 – Look who finally decided to join us for the 2023 season. Jones is showing up fashionably late, or maybe at this point he’s just rudely late, but he finally showed up nonetheless. He went 3 for 5 with a stolen base yesterday and is now slashing .339/.438/.500 with 2 homers, 6 steals, and a 15/11 K/BB in his last 16 games at Single-A. It brings his season wRC+ at the level to an above average 104 in 29 games, which takes his season from a total disaster to just disappointing. Coming off the shoulder surgery and the myriad of injuries he suffered this year, it’s fair to write this season off as a lost year, and with him showing signs of life here, he might make for a good buy low this off-season.

Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.5 – With every top prospect and their mother getting called up to the majors, Petey Crow must be feeling pretty lonely still at Triple-A, and he’s taking his frustration out on the baseball. He went 4 for 5 yesterday with a double and a grand salami. It’s his second grand slam in 6 games, and there is really nothing left for him to prove in the minors. His path to the majors isn’t exactly wide open, but he’s not really blocked either. I’m expecting a callup before the end of the season, but who knows really. Update: Literally minutes after publishing this article it was announced PCA will be called up to the bigs. Perfect timing ha

Jackson Jobe DET, RHP, 20.10 – Jobe got a late start to the season coming off a serious back injury, so you are forgiven if it slipped by you that he very well might have a legitimate case to be the best pitching prospect in baseball. He threw another gem yesterday, going 5 IP with 5 hits, 1 ER, and a 7/0 K/BB at High-A. Here is a highlight reel of the filth. He now has a 3.10 ERA with a 78/6 K/BB in 58 IP. He throws 3 at least plus pitches in his fastball, slider, and changeup. If his hype doesn’t explode this off-season like it should, he will be a major target.

Barrett Kent LAA, RHP, 18.11 – The 6’4”, 215 pound Kent was an 8th round pick in this year’s draft, but he signed for almost $1 million, so you know how much LA liked him. He’s now turning heads in pro ball after making his full season debut at Single-A yesterday, going 4 IP with 2 hit, 0 ER, and a 5/1 K/BB. The fastball sat low to mid 90’s and he broke off some nasty changeups. He’s shaping up to be a nice later round target if you stock up on hitters early.

Michael King NYY, RHP, 28.3 – The Yankees rotation is crumbling piece by piece, but one man has risen from the ashes, and we call that man King (because that’s his name). Michael King is becoming a very enticing target this off-season after being transitioned to the rotation, and he had another great outing on Saturday, going 5 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 9/1 K/BB vs. MIL. The sinker sat 94.8 MPH, the changeup notched a 71% whiff% and the sweeper notched a 43% whiff%. It’s his 3rd straight excellent start in a row, and as you can see, he most certainly has the stuff to back it up. He was a starter in the minors, and a damn good one at that with a 2.96 ERA in 392.2 career MiLB IP, so none of this is foreign to him. He could be legit.

Kevin Alcantara CHC, OF, 21.2 – Alcantara closed out his season with a bang, going 4 for 4 with a double, homer, and a play at the plate which showed off his flair for the dramatic. He got off to a slow start on the season, but he’s been a man possessed over his last 62 games, slashing .330/.401/.540 with 9 homers, 5 steals, and a 57/27 K/BB at High-A. He has an excellent 124 wRC+ in 95 games on the season. Don’t sleep on this 6”6”, 188 pound unicorn athlete, because the hype could explode when he takes on the upper minors in 2024.

Myles Naylor OAK, SS, 18.5 – Naylor 3.0 was drafted 39th overall in this year’s draft, and he’s off to an extreme start, both good and bad, in his pro debut. He went deep for his 6th homer in 34 games at mostly Single-A yesterday, but it comes with a brutal 39.6% K%. That is in Elijah Green cover your eyes territory. You have to love the bloodlines (Josh and Bo are his older brothers) and the power, but that K% has to scare you off at least a little.

Victor Scott STL, OF, 22.6 – Scott is an absolute machine on the bases as he once again nabbed 3 bags in a game. It’s the 8th time he’s done that this year. His contact/speed profile has had no issues at Double-A with a 14.3% K%, 43 steals, 6 homers and a .328 BA in 60 games at the level. Make no mistake, Scott is one of the top speed prospects in all of baseball. Easy Top 100 prospect.

AJ Vukovich ARI, 3B, 22.1 – Vukovich has very quietly put together a strong season at Double-A, and it got stronger yesterday with him cracking a dinger. It’s his 2nd homer in 3 games, 3rd homer in 6 games, 4th homer in 10 games, 5th homer in 19 games, 6th homer in 29 games, 7th homer in 37 games, 8th homer in 39 games, 9th homer in 40 games … you get the point, he has a lot of homers (24 homers in 110 games at Double-A to be exact) ;). He’s a big dude at 6’2”, 210 pounds, and he’s also an excellent athlete, evidenced by 17 steals. The plate approach is rough with a 28.3%/8.8% K%/BB%, so there is risk, but he’s a legitimately exciting prospect. He checked in at #234 on the August Top 379 Prospects Rankings (Patreon).

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-SEPTEMBER TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-AUGUST TOP 379 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-7 END OF SEASON STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: AUGUST MAILBAG! (8/25/23)
-TOP 38 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (8/15/23)
-TOP 17 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (8/3/23)
-Off-Season content includes team prospect lists, deep positional rankings, strategy articles, and very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/14/23)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/14/23):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-AUGUST TOP 477 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-MID-SEASON TOP 357 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 17 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (8/3/23)
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/28/23)
-TOP 38 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (8/15/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

Zack Gelof OAK, 2B/3B, 23.10 – Here’s what I wrote about Gelof about two weeks ago in my Top 17 Dynasty Baseball Targets article, “If you want safety, sign up for a defensive driving course. This here is the autobahn of dynasty baseball schools, and I don’t want speed limits. I want to take the restrictor plate off and let it fly. That brings us to the 6’3”, 205 pound Zack Gelof, whose upside was considerably underrated in the minors. The guy came up to the majors and has been a power/speed glutton with a 91.8 MPH EV, 20.3 degree launch, and 29.5 ft/sec sprint speed. It’s led to 4 homers and 5 steals in just 16 games. He flashed those same skills in the minors with 12 homers and 20 steals in 69 games at Triple-A. Sure it might feel like your car is coming apart at the seams with the steering wheel shaking and hearing a weird squeaking sound that you can’t quite place because your whiff% meter is well into the danger zone at 42.1%, but fuck it, you’re sick of playing it safe and falling just short of a championship. In fantasy baseball, if you crash and burn, you don’t actually die, you just feel shitty for a few weeks/months. If you can’t take risks in fantasy, where can you take risks? And for Gelof’s current very reasonable price, he’s worth the risk for that big time upside he’s showing off.” … he went 4 for 5 with 2 bombs last night and since that write-up is slashing .382/.432/.853 with 4 homers, 1 steal, and a 7/3 K/BB in 9 games. Buy windows can close fast during the season, and this buy window might have just slammed shut on your fingers if you didn’t act fast.

Wilyer Abreu BOS, OF, 24.1 – Abreu was also named in that target article, and he also went nuclear yesterday with a 3 dinger day. He has a sweet, sweet lefty swing that I just can’t quit, and it’s resulted in 20 bombs with a 21.4%/15.4% K%/BB% and 121 wRC+ in 80 games at Triple-A. He barely gets a whisper of hype and all he does is rake.

Noah Schultz CHW, LHP, 20.0 – I promise you I don’t want to turn this entire Rundown into one big pat myself on the back fest, but I can’t help that so many of my Targets went off yesterday. Schultz was my top pitcher target for first year player drafts, and now his hype is absolutely blowing up. He kept his immaculate season going yesterday (3.1 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 5/2 K/BB) and now has a 1.33 ERA with a 36.5%/5.8% K%/BB% in 27 IP at Single-A.

Bryan Ramos CHW, 3B, 21.3 – Okay, this is a cry for help now … just … can’t … stop … being … right 😉 … Ramos is the Rodney Dangerfield of prospects, the guy just don’t get no respect. He dug out a pitch that was down and in and somehow managed to go the other way with it with authority for his 11th homer in 49 games at Double-A. I’ve been banging his drum for two years and he’s now destroying Double-A, slashing .274/.392/.508 with 11 homers, 4 steals, and a 22.7%/12.4% K%/BB%. There actually might still be a buy window here, because I’ll tell ya, he got no respect the day he was born. He ranked 77th on my Mid-Season Top 357 Dynasty Prospects Rankings.

Coby Mayo BAL, 3B, 21.8 – I’m doing everything in my power to not mention that I predicted Coby Mayo would be a Top 10 Prospect in my Predicting the Top 50 2024 Dynasty Baseball Prospects back in February. I’m not sure he’s quite at Top 10 level yet, but he’s certainly blown up this year, and he’s starting to conquer Triple-A now too with a 457 foot bomb for his 3rd homer in 26 games. He only has a 69 wRC+ at the level (177 wRC+ at Double-A), but his strikeout rate has come down to a reasonable 25.2% and a lot of it is poor BABIP luck (.242 BABIP).

Moises Ballesteros CHC, C, 19.8 – Okay Mike, it’s not even funny anymore, don’t mention that you named Ballesteros your top catcher target this off-season in your Positional Targets Series … don’t do it … Ballesteros was my top catcher target this off-season in my Positional Targets Series, and he’s gone off this year. He got the call to High-A after conquering Single-A, and he’s now officially destroying the level after cracking his 3rd homer. He has a 131 wRC+ in 37 games after putting up a 143 wRC+ in 56 games at Single-A.

Anthony Solometo PIT, LHP, 20.7 – Let’s use Solometo as a palate cleanser. Finally one of my targets who didn’t play well yesterday. He went 1 IP with 4 hits, 3 ER and a 1/1 K/BB at Double-A. He hasn’t been bad at Double-A, but he hasn’t been dominant either with a 4.15 ERA and 25.2%/5.4% K%/BB% in 34.2 IP. Keep in mind he’s still only 20 years old, and it’s also nice to see the walk rate come all the way down to a near elite 5.4% BB%.

Homer Bush Jr. SDP, OF, 21.10 – Don’t worry, Homer Bush Jr. has never been a target of mine … yet. He didn’t crack my Top 50 2024 FYPD Rankings, but he’s proving he should have with an excellent pro debut. After across the board destruction in rookie ball,  he got called up to Single-A and is still raking, slashing .294/.478/.529 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 8.7%/13% K%/BB% in 5 games. His 12 pro steals leads all 2023 draftees. As the 128th pick in the draft, he’s quickly becoming one of my favorite sleeper bats.

Enrique Bradfield Jr. BAL, OF, 21.8 – Speaking of guys racking up steals, Bradfield racked up 4 steals yesterday and is a perfect 9 for 9 in only 7 pro games (3 games in rookie and 4 in Single-A). As the 17th pick in the draft, you won’t get the discount you can get on Bush, but his category winning stolen base prowess is worth the price.

Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 21.4 – You heard it here first, Crews is my #1 sleeper target in first year player drafts 😉 … He’s unsurprisingly obliterating the lower minors after going 5 for 5 with 2 homers yesterday at High-A. He has a 193 wRC+ in 8 games at the level. It continues to lock in his status as a truly elite prospect, and he already ranked 51st overall on the Updated Top 477 Dynasty Baseball Rankings that dropped last week on my Patreon.

Ryan Pepiot LAD, RHP, 25.11 – 6.2 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 11/0 K/BB at Triple-A. The fastball sat 94.3 MPH and the changeup dominated with a 50% whiff%. Here’s a highlight reel of his dominance. I feel like we’ve seen enough plus changeup Dodgers pitchers struggle in the majors (Gavin Stone, Emmet Sheehan) to scare us off, but at the same time, those struggles might open the door for Pepiot to get the next shot when/if a rotation spot opens.

Matt Shaw CHC, SS, 21.8/Tommy Troy ARI, 3B/2B, 21.6 – There seems to be a split between people who prefer Shaw and people who prefer Troy, and while I’m most certainly on Team Shaw, I like Troy too. They both homered yesterday, and now Shaw is utterly decimating High-A with 2 homers, 1 steal, a 15.4% K% and 205 wRC+ in 9 games. Troy isn’t playing as well with a 80 wRC+ in 10 games, but a lot of that is bad BABIP luck (.185 BABIP) because the 3 homers, 4 steals, and a 26.1% K% ain’t bad at all. Shaw checked in at 43rd overall on my Mid-Season Top 357 Prospects Rankings while Troy checked in at #126.

Termarr Johnson PIT, 2B/SS, 19.1 – It didn’t take long for Johnson to find his footing at High-A. After struggling in his first few games at the level, he’s homered in back to back games. His hit tool might not have been quite as good as advertised, but this is still an explosive player with a very mature plate approach. I would say he’s living up to about 95% of his draft hype.

Chase Silseth LAA, RHP, 23.1 – 5 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 5/2 K/BB vs. HOU. He probably got a bit lucky in this one with only a 16% whiff% and with his secondaries getting hit relatively hard, but you know what they say, it’s better to be lucky than good. And it’s also a good sign that he was still able to come through without his best stuff. He ranked 332nd on the Updated Top 477 Dynasty Rankings.

Jace Jung DET, 2B, 22.9 – Jung went lefty on lefty off Solometo on a pitch that was so bad I’m not even sure what it was. I’m assuming it was a hanging slider. They all count the same though, and Jung is more than handling his business since getting the call to Double-A with 4 homers and a 118 wRC+ in 19 games. The Jung’s are taking the baseball world by storm this year, and it won’t be long before baby bro Jace joins his big bro Josh in the majors.

James Wood WAS, OF, 20.10 – Wood unloaded for his 13th homer in 58 games at Double-A, and he did it with an impressively short and quick swing. That type of swing gives hope his hit tool will be good enough to let the huge power/speed combo shine, but there is undeniable hit tool risk with a 32.7% K% at the level. I’m buying the talent, just like I am with the similarly tall and thin Elly (who cracked his 10th MLB homer yesterday).

Carson Williams TBR, SS, 20.1 – Okay, 11 blurbs is long enough to go without mentioning my targets going off, right? My man Williams went 5 for 5 with 2 doubles at High-A, and most importantly, he didn’t strike out once. He’s been excellent all season, but he’s been especially great over his last 33 games with 9 homers and a .973 OPS. The 30.9% K% is too high, but he has the type of talent to overlook that one small snafu. He also has the defensive prowess to keep him on the field while he works through the hit tool issues.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-AUGUST TOP 477 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-MID-SEASON TOP 357 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 17 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (8/3/23)
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/28/23)
-TOP 38 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (8/15/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/31/23)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/31/23):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 473 JULY DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 357 JULY DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 17 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (8/3/23)
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/28/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (7/14/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

Nolan Schanuel LAA, 1B, 21.5 – I remember when I started writing back in 2015, the pro debuts for recently drafted players were always poo pooed. The default line that every prospect writer gave when asked about the pro performance of the most recent draft class was always some variation of “small sample size,” and they would never deviate from their pre draft evaluation of a player. That never made sense to me, as it seemed obvious that what a player did when they actually started facing pro pitching with a wood bat was very important, actionable information. Well, the prospect landscape has changed drastically over the last 8 years, and now almost every prospect writer puts the proper weight on pro debuts. Valuations can change in a hurry in both directions. Just look at Dalton Rushing and Jacob Berry, likely the two biggest movers in opposite directions in last year’s draft class based on their debuts. Keeping an eye on the recent draftees is one of the most fun/important things you can do at this point of the season. So on that note, let’s kick things off with keeping an eye on the 11th overall pick in the draft, Nolan Schanuel. In true Angels fashion, while everyone else is taking things slow with their draft picks, Schanuel has already skyrocketed to Double-A. This looks like a Zach Neto situation all over again. He’s now the favorite to be the first one to reach the majors from his draft class, and he has the type of extremely advanced plate approach to succeed quickly. He put up a 1.190 OPS with a 1/5 K/BB in 5 games split between rookie and Single-A, but his first game at Double-A was a bit of a “welcome to pro ball, kid” moment, going 0 for 4 with 3 K’s. He bounced back yesterday though with a 3 for 4 night, including a triple and 0/2 K/BB. We’ll quickly find out how good of a plate approach he really has after putting up elite strikeout to walk rates in Conference USA. He ranked 15th overall on my Top 50 2024 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon) and is looking like one of top picks if you want a quick mover.

Max Clark DET, OF, 18.6 – Clark made his pro debut in rookie ball, and he showed off his pu pu platter of skills all in one hit. He ripped a ball the opposite way to deep left centerfield off a lefty, and then showed off the wheels by easily legging out a triple. He went 1 for 4 with 2 K’s on the day. After the consensus top 3 are off the board (Crews, Langford, Skenes), I would be all over Clark, and he already ranked 14th overall on the Mid-Season Top 357 Dynasty Prospects Rankings that dropped last week on the Patreon.

Matt Shaw CHC, SS, 21.8 – There is a consensus Top 5 in the draft (Crews, Langford, Skenes, Clark, Jenkins), but I think Shaw is knocking on the door of that top tier as my top target after that. He’s unsurprisingly crushing rookie ball, going 4 for 8 with 1 homer, 1 double, 2 steals, and a 1/2 K/BB in 3 games. I love his little man leg kick, which is the same swing that made me fall in love with Zach Neto and Spencer Steer. I’m all in on him, ranking him 43rd overall on the Mid-Season Top 357 Prospects Rankings.

Tommy Troy ARI, 3B/2B, 21.6 – Many people have Troy over Shaw, and he did also get taken one pick ahead of Shaw in the draft, but I don’t think Troy has quite the fantasy upside that Shaw has. To Troy’s credit, he’s also handling his business in rookie ball like he should, going 4 for 8 with 1 steal and a 1/2 K/BB in 3 games. Other than the Angels, teams are rightfully taking it slow by starting guys off in rookie ball. There is no reason to not allow them to get their footing slowly in pro ball before promoting them to higher levels.

Chase Davis STL, OF, 21.7 – St. Louis didn’t take the rookie ball first route with Davis, sending him straight to full season ball, and maybe they should have re thought that decision. The hit tool was really the one concern with Davis, and it’s rearing it’s ugly head in the early going with him putting up a 37.5% K% with a .231 BA in 8 games. He’s yet to do any damage either with 0 homers and a .644 OPS. It comes with a 18.8% BB%, which definitely eases some concerns that it’s just small sample noise and/or that he’s being too patient, but it’s still not what you want to see. It’s far too early for this to change anything, but it’s definitely something to keep an eye on.

Mitch Jebb PIT, SS, 21.2 – Selected 42nd overall, Jebb also debuted in full season ball, and unlike Davis, he’s thriving, going 8 for 14 with 2 doubles, 1 steal, and a 0/1 K/BB. He got drafted on the back of his at least plus hit/speed combo, and that profile is transferring completely in the early going. There is little to no power here, which is why he didn’t crack my Top 50, but I definitely have my eye on him with the strong early showing.

Aidan Miller PHI, SS, 19.1 – Miller is already 19 years old, and while 19 year old high school prospects aren’t my favorite to go after, he undeniably has a beastly righty swing geared for both average and power. He’s showed off that swing real quick by going 3 for 4 with 2 doubles in first first pro game in rookie ball and is 4 for 7 with 1 K over 2 games. A strong pro debut could get his hype cooking real quick, and he’s already highly touted.

Homer Bush Jr. SDP, OF, 21.9 – I’ll always have fond memories of Homer Bush as a Yankees fan. He put up a 139 wRC+ in 78 PA during that special 1998 season when I was in my sports fandom prime as a 12 year old. I don’t know why, but thinking back on those fun bench players and part time players almost brings back more nostalgia than remembering the stars. Time marches on though, and now Homer Bush is 50 years old, and it’s his sons turn to make some memories for the kids. He stepped right into rookie ball and has already popped 2 homers in 6 games, one of which was the inside the park variety. He’s also tacked on 5 steals with a 4/2 K/BB. He wasn’t highly drafted as a 4th round pick, and there is nothing he can do in rookie ball to really get the hype going as a college player, but he has the bloodlines and a fantasy friendly profile with plus speed and good feel to hit. If the power can take a jump, there is definitely potential for him to become an intriguing prospect.

Jace Jung DET, 2B, 22.9 – Jung might not have the shiny new toy excitement that the new draftees have, but he’s been quietly having a killer season that got a whole lot louder yesterday after smashing 2 homers at Double-A. He now has 3 homers with a 9/1 K/BB in 6 games at the level after handling his business at High-A with 14 homers and a 22.7%/15.3% K%/BB% in 81 games. He’ll be a no doubt Top 100 prospect in no time if he keeps this up in the upper minors, if he’s not there already.

John Cruz NYY, OF, 17.11 – I named Cruz a target in my latest Dynasty Baseball Targets article (Patreon), and he’s getting hot again after homering in 3 of his last 6 games in rookie ball as a 17 year old. He’s now slashing .264/.350/.512 with 8 homers, 6 steals, and a 23.8%/10.5% K%/BB% in 33 games. He has the elite upside to back up the numbers with a vicious lefty swing and plus athleticism at 6’3”, 171 pounds. I actually just scooped him up in my 30 team mid season prospect blind auction. I would grab him in all league sizes at this point.

Christopher Sanchez PHI, LHP, 26.7 – 5 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER, 3/2 K/BB vs. PIT. Sanchez threw a modern day no hitter right after I talked shit about him on Halp’s Dynasty Baseball Podcast: July Mailbag (Patreon) on Friday (I hit on a ton of topics in that podcast, including Jordan Walker, Riley Greene, CJ Abrams, softball batting stances, Everson Pereira, Ezequiel Duran, and many more). The fastball averaged 90.6 MPH and he put up an 11% whiff% overall. This just isn’t a profile I’m going after, and while he’s currently showing elite control with a 4.3% BB% in 47.1 IP, he’s never shown even close to this level of control in the past. If you can cash in on him for a solid prospect return before the trade deadline based on his 2.66 ERA, I would do so.

AJ Smith-Shawver ATL, RHP, 20.7 – Shawver got called back up the bigs and scuffled a bit vs. Milwaukee, going 5 IP with 4 hits, 3 ER, and a 3/4 K/BB. The fastball averaged 94.5 MPH and he put up a 21% whiff% with a traditional 4 pitch mix. He hasn’t blown the doors off the majors and he also hasn’t been that great at Triple-A (4.44 ERA in 24.1 IP), but you have to take into account that this kid should probably still be at High-A. I love the stuff, I love Atlanta’s faith in him promoting him so fast, and I love that he is even able to hold his own against advanced competition. I’m still all in on Shawver long term.

Matt Sauer NYY, RHP, 24.6 – Nobody wants to give my man Sauer any love at all, but I still stand by that this guy is going to surprise some people down the line. He threw a gem yesterday, going 5 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER, and a 7/0 K/BB at Double-A. Here he is consistently throwing mid 90’s heat with a filthy breaking ball and a solid changeup. This was his best outing of the season and he battled arm troubles which delayed the start of his year, but I can’t be the only one to see the legit talent he has in his arm. I still like him in deeper leagues.

Hayden Birdsong SFG, RHP, 21.9 – Birdsong rose to 237th overall in my latest rankings, and he had another strong outing yesterday, going 4 IP with 5 hits, 1 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB at High-A. He’s 6’4”, 215 pounds with a plus mid 90’s fastball and a 4 pitch mix with a plus slider as his best secondary. It’s led to a 3.09 ERA and 33.1%/6.6% K%/BB% in 32 IP at the level. I’m a big fan.

Heston Kjerstad BAL, OF, 24.5 – Kjerstad has quickly become a near elite prospect befitting of his 2nd overall pick draft pedigree now that he is finally healthy, and he kept it going yesterday after smoking his 7th homer in 39 games at Triple-A. He’s been utterly obliterating the upper minors all year with 18 homers and a 64/28 K/BB in 85 games. The only question is where he fits in on a loaded Orioles team and if he gets traded before the deadline.

Parker Meadows DET, OF, 23.7 – Meadows smushed his 16th homer in 97 games at Triple-A, and he’s been trying to kick that door down to the majors of late with a .960 OPS in his last 20 games. He has a fantasy friendly profile with a plus power/speed combo (15 steals) and is entering great stash territory is any league size. His time is coming.

Owen Caissie CHC, OF, 21.0 – Caissie hit his 18th homer in 84 games at Double-A, which isn’t notable because we already know about the monster power, but what is notable is that it came with 0 K’s. In fact, he’s only struck out once in his last 18 PA. It brings his K% with the regular, non tacked ball down to 27.9% in 13 games, and like I mentioned, it’s been even better over his last 4 games. He’ll always be a high K guy, but it’s looking like the over the top K% with the pre-tacked ball was not a true measure of his talent level. His stock continues to rise as one of the top power hitting prospects in the minors.

Orelvis Martinez TOR, SS, 21.6 – Speaking of one of the top power hitting prospects in the minors, Martinez demolished his 2nd homer in 10 games since getting called up to Triple-A, and he’s maintained his much improved plate approach with a 9/6 K/BB. Even with the improved plate approach I still wouldn’t expect a high BA because he’s a perpetual low BABIP guy, but the guy is going to mash at any level.

Charlie Pagliarini SEA, 3B, 22.7 – I couldn’t do this little draft class pro debut update without mentioning Pagliarini. The 19th round pick has already cracked 3 dingers in just 5 games in rookie ball, and the power is most certainly real with him cracking 24 homers in the MAAC. He was a 22 year old senior with hit tool issues, which is why he got drafted so late, and doing it in rookie ball doesn’t mean much, but it can’t hurt to at least keep him in the back of your mind.

Jared Sundstrom SEA, OF, 22.1 – Sundstrom is another one to at least keep in mind in deep leagues. The 6’3”, 225 pound 10th round pick is already making waves at Single-A after cracking a grand slam for his first pro homer and then following that up with a 2 run bomb for his 2nd. He’s also doing it with a strong 15.4% K% in 3 games. Like Pagliarini, he’s already 22 and will need to do a lot more to become someone to really go after, but his performance warrants a mention to close out this Rundown.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 473 JULY DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 357 JULY DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 17 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (8/3/23)
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/28/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (7/14/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

The Wednesday Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/19/23)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays (and I guess Wednesdays sometimes when I get jammed up, ha) throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Wednesday Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/19/23):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 473 JULY DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 331 JUNE DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (7/14/23)
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (6/29/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JUNE MAILBAG! (6/27/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

*I was on an extended weekend family trip on Monday and Tuesday that I thought I was going to be able to write during but it turned out I couldn’t. My bad.

Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 21.7 – When I ranked Alvarez 92nd overall on the Updated July Top 473 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), he was in the midst of slumping, but I didn’t let it scare me off him, and he’s been molten hot since. He went 2 for 3 with a 108.6 MPH homer off Lucas Gioltio and a 106.5 MPH homer of Tanner Banks. It was his 18th and 19th homers of the year in 69 games, and he now has a 7 homers with a 1.363 OPS in 11 July games. He leads all catchers in the homer category and he’s done it in far less at bats. This is just the beginning.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand CIN, 1B/3B, 23.6 – That unsurprisingly didn’t take long. Strand walloped his first MLB homer in his 2nd game with a 426 foot, 105.8 MPH bomb. How could anyone have guessed a guy who hit 20 homers with a .331 BA in 67 games at Triple-A would be good? Maybe it was that extra month or two at Triple-A that really put the finishing touches on him 😉

Bryce Elder ATL, RHP, 24.0 – In the easiest regression call of all time, Elder had his 2nd clunker in a row, going 6 IP with 12 ER and a 4/5 K/BB (5 ER in 2.2 IP last night). This is why I just never really bought into him, and while he can still be a decent fantasy starter, his 4.12 xERA has always been more indicative of his true talent level.

Lazaro Montes SEA, OF, 18.8 – Montes is officially going full breakout after cracking 2 homers yesterday and 3 homers in his last 2 games at stateside rookie ball. He’s improved on his danger zone K% of 33.2% in 2022, bringing it down to a not horrific 27.9% this year, and he’s still walking a ton with a 23.1% BB%. It’s all added up to a 145 wRC+ in 26 games. He’s right on track to become an elite power hitting prospect.

Sebastian Walcott TEX, SS, 17.3 – 3 for 4 with a double, and most importantly, he didn’t strike out once. The strikeouts are the only blemish on his profile with a 29%/4.3% K%/BB% in 15 games in stateside rookie ball, but considering he’s still only 17 years old, and his otherwise insane production (6 homers, 6 steals, and a 181 wRC+) it is very easy to overlook. He was my #1 international prospect target, hyping him hard (with a side of Joendry Vargas who is also killing it in the DSL right now) in my First Year Player Draft Target and Strategy Guide (Patreon) all the way back on January 5th, writing, “Sebastian Walcott TEX, SS, 17.1/ Joendry Vargas LAD, SS, 17.5 – I love searching for that relatively underrated international prospect. The guy who isn’t getting hyped up at the very top of the class but I think should be. It was Alexander Ramirez for me in 2020 (big hit), Maikol Hernandez in 2021 (oof), Lazaro Montes in 2022 (looking good), and in 2023, it’s Sabastian Walcott. This dude looks like a next level athlete in the sparse Youtube videos out there. It’s what made me fall in love so much with Ramirez and Montes, and that was worked out for me. Walcott even stands out relative to the other elite athletes in his class. Vargas is getting some more rankings love than Walcott, but still isn’t really talked about like the very top guys yet. He’s also a good international target.” Walcott started to get a lot more love later in the off-season, but you were already all over him early if you read my stuff.

Xavier Isaac TBR, 1B, 19.6 – Isaac has continued to quietly establish himself as a future elite hitting prospect. He demolished a 440 foot no doubter yesterday for his 3rd in 4 games and his 9th in 64 games. The GB% continues to come down to a reasonable 46.4%, and he has an excellent plate approach with a 19.9%/14.7% K%/BB%. It’s all led to a 141 wRC+. He rose to 68th overall on the June Top Top 331 Prospects Rankings (Patreon), and he’ll take another big jump in the Updated July Prospects Rankings coming next week.

Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.4 – The Southern League is in the post pre-tacked ball era, and Chourio is loving every minute of it, smoking an opposite field homer yesterday and is now 10 for 18 with 2 doubles, 2 homers and a 1/1 K/BB in 4 games with the normal ball. He’s basically picked right up from the destruction he laid last year. I wouldn’t say we should completely throw out the first half stats of all players in the Southern League, but it’s going to be mighty interesting to see the difference from the 1st half to the 2nd half. I didn’t budge off Chourio with his good, but not explosive 1st half, and now he’s exploding all over again.

Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.6 – Dominguez is getting hot again. He went deep for the 2nd time in 3 games and now has a .934 OPS with 7 steals and a 14/8 K/BB in 13 July games. It think the backlash against Dominguez’ ridiuclous hype as a 17 year old has made him underrated over the past couple years. He’s a 20 year old at Double-A with a 108 wRC+ and a nasty power/speed combo (12 homers and 25 steals in 80 games).

Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.3 – My #6 ranked prospect on the June Top 331 Rankings, Armstrong has been an extra base machine since returning from the break. He smushed his 11th homer in 64 games at Double-A yesterday and now has 3 doubles, 1 triple, and 1 homer in his last 14 AB. The power explosion is exciting considering his speed (23 steals) and defense, and while the 24%/7.7% K%/BB% isn’t great, it’s not bad either. I’m all in on Armstrong and have been since his draft year.

Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.10 – What lack of power? Carter deposited his 10th homer of the season right in the lazy river. He’s been on fire since returning from injury, slashing .354/.426/.622 with 5 homers, 2 steals (in 6 attempts) and a 18/10 K/BB in 21 games. The only real blemish on his season is a terrible stolen base success rate (11 for 18), but I think we can overlook that with the power uptick and great plate approach.

Emmanuel Rodriguez MIN, OF, 20.4 – It’s been an up and down season for Baby Bonds, and we’re now back on the upswing with his first homer since June 23rd. He has a .914 OPS in his last 6 games after going 0 for 22 in the 8 games before that. That is a microcosm of his entire season, but a 131 wRC+ with 11 homers and 11 steals in 60 games at High-A ain’t too shabby at all. The 31.8% K% and .214 BA prevents a true explosion to elite prospect status, but his value has at least held steady this year.

Ceddanne Rafaela BOS, OF, 22.3 – All Rafaela has done at Triple-A is hit dingers, and I mean that in both a good and bad way. He smoked his 5th homer in 15 games at the level, but it comes with a 25%/1.5% K%/BB%. The extremely low walk rates are a bit concerning, but he makes up for it with plus speed and plus defense. The profile isn’t that far off from Pete Crow, and he’s now knocking on the door of the bigs.

Jett Williams NYM, SS, 19.8 – Jett may be only 5’6”, but he’s starting to look pretty thick (in a good way), and he’s proving he has enough juice in his bat to make a legit impact. He launched his 5th homer in 70 games at Single-A yesterday and it comes with 29 steals and a 20.6%/19.6% K%/BB%. He only has a .243 BA because the GB% is probably a little too low for his type of profile with a 35.2% GB%, but that is a much easier fix than trying to learn how to lift the ball more. It’s a damn exciting fantasy profile and he is very easily a top 100 fantasy prospect.

Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 22.1 – Jones crushed his 11th homer in 72 games off a pretty nice looking curve that caught too much of the plate. We already know about the power and speed, and his plate approach has looked much better of late with a 24.3%/14.8% K%/BB% in his last 31 games. I would say he’s conquered High-A at this point and is just waiting for his next challenge in the upper minors.

Tyler Black MIL, 2B, 22.11 – Black was one of my first buy calls of the season, and he’s went on to just continue crushing the upper minors all year. He went 4 for 6 with a frozen rope homer yesterday and is now slashing .282/.427/.524 with 13 homers, 42 steals, and a 20.3%/16.8% K%/BB% in 70 games at Double-A. Call me crazy, but I think he’s ready for Triple-A.

Coby Mayo BAL, 3B, 21.6/Orelvis Martinez TOR, SS, 21.6 – Another day, another dinger. Mayo and Orelvis both went deep again, and it was both of their 18th homers. It was also both of their first homers at Triple-A after recently getting called up to the level. I prefer Mayo, but they are both elite power hitting prospects.

Christian Scott NYM, RHP, 24.1 – 7 IP, 6 hits, 2 ER, 8/0 K/BB at Double-A. Scott transitioned into a full time starter role after being mostly used out of the pen in his career, and he’s taken to it well with a 3.22 ERA and 28.8%/5% K%/BB% in 36.1 IP at Double-A. He’s a big dude at 6’4”, 215 pounds and the stuff is very good with a mid 90’s fastball and plus slider. He might still end up in the pen when it’s all said and done, but there is definitely mid rotation upside and he’s definitely an exciting pop up pitching prospect.

Ty Madden DET, RHP, 23.4 – 4.2 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 8/2 K/BB at Double-A. Madden has always felt a bit underrated to me. He has the size (6’3”, 215), velocity (mid 90’s heat), diverse pitch mix (fastball, slider, curve, change), and production (3.68 ERA with a 27.1%/9.5% K%/BB%) to make a legit fantasy impact. He’s not a bad low key target if you are struggling to acquire pitching as he’s also close to the bigs.

Logan Allen CLE, LHP, 24.11 – Allen is back in the majors and it didn’t take long for him to re-establish himself, going 5 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 8/1 K/BB vs. Pitt. The changeup was a whiff machine with a 50% whiff% and it led to a 29% whiff% on the day. The stuff isn’t huge with a 90.4 MPH fastball in this one, and he’s not an elite control guy, which limits his upside, but the guy knows how to pitch and can miss bats. It’s a #4-ish starter profile.

Jordan Beck COL, OF, 22.2 – Beck got the call to Double-A post break and he had his first big day at the level, going 2 for 4 with a triple and a homer. He has a 115 wRC+ in 4 games but it comes with a 46.2%/0.0% K%/BB%. It’s still obviously too small of a sample to say anything in either direction, but the one thing to watch is that K%, because we know about the big talent at 6’3”, 225 pounds with a plus power/speed combo. He was one of my targets in my Top 9 Dynasty Baseball Targets (Patreon) from a few weeks ago.

Victor Scott STL, OF, 22.3 – Double-A hasn’t slowed Scott down at all. He lined his 2nd homer in 13 games and is now slashing .333/.377/.491 with 2 homers, 6 steals, and a 12.9%/4.8% K%/BB% in 13 games at the level. He rose to 233rd overall on the latest prospect rankings, and that is set to take another big jump next week. He’s legitimately exciting with a plus contact/speed profile.

Jud Fabian BAL, OF, 22.7 – Fabian smacked his 5th homer at 20 games since getting called up to Double-A, but unfortunately his hit tool has basically been a worst case scenario with a .171 BA and 37.6% K%. That is exactly what we didn’t want to see, but he’s made adjustments in the past, and we have to give him some time to make adjustments again against upper minors pitchers.

Ivan Melendez ARI, 1B, 23.7 – Melendez got the call to Double-A, and literally all he’s done is rip dingers. He cracked 2 homers yesterday and he now has 4 homers in 3 games at the level. He wasn’t too bad at High-A either with 18 homers in 58 games. He’s certainly made up for his lackluster debut in 2022, but he still isn’t without his warts with a 33.6%/8.2% K%/BB% (30.8%/7.7% K%/BB% at Double-A). It is a bit of a Quad-A type slugger profile, and he’s also hit lefties much better than righties. A low BA, part time power bat might be the most likely outcome, but he’s left little doubt that he will be able to mash homers at any level.

Alek Manoah TOR, RHP, 25.6 – 3 IP, 3 hits, 4 ER. 0/5 K/BB vs. SDP … oof, still brutal

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 473 JULY DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 331 JUNE DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (7/14/23)
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (6/29/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JUNE MAILBAG! (6/27/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)