May 2022 – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on May 31, 2022June 2, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 350 June 2022 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings

I reversed course on this one and was very lenient with my definition of a prospect, so the previous ranking in parenthesis might indicate a bigger drop than actually happened due to adding a bunch of players who weren’t eligible on my last stricter update. Here is the Top 350 June 2022 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS AND TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED MAY 2022 TOP 433 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED JUNE 2022 TOP 350 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

1) (7) Royce Lewis MIN, SS, 23.0 – I’m trying to make a case why Lewis shouldn’t be the #1 prospect in baseball and I just can’t do it. He already rose to #7 overall in last month’s update before he got the call to the majors, and then he went out and proved the skills will translate against MLB pitching with a 16.2% whiff% and 90.7 MPH EV in 41 PA. He has all the talent in the world as a former #1 overall pick and he destroyed Triple-A in every facet of the game. While the prospects ranked after him are every bit as talented, proving it in the majors is a big deal, as we’ve seen top prospects come up and quickly establish they just can’t handle MLB pitching … cough, Jarred Kelenic, clearing throat sound, cough, cough. I obviously don’t love the knee injury after he crashed into the wall, but right now it’s not looking like a major injury

2) (5) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 21.9 – Hasn’t slowed down in May at all with a 1.031 OPS at Double-A

3) (1) Riley Greene DET, OF, 21.8 – Began his rehab assignment from a broken foot and went 1 for 4 in his first game back at Triple-A

4) (4) Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 23.8 – K% is all the way down to a respectable 25.1%, and in his last 20 games he’s slashing .281/.392/.549 with 6 homers, 3 steals, and a 19/12 K/BB at Triple-A. I’m still all in on Cruz

5) (2) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 22.6 – 0.94 ERA with a 43/9 K/BB in his last 28.2 IP at Triple-A. I have no idea why he isn’t in the majors already Update: Left his last start with a lat injury. Fucking pitching prospects man

6) (6/UR) Shane Baz TBR, RHP, 22.11 – Due to being more strict on my last prospects update, Baz wasn’t included, but he was my 6th ranked prospect in the Top 433 May 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings from 2 weeks ago. He recently began a rehab assignment at Triple-A and should be back in the majors soon.

7) (3) Adley Rutschman BAL, C, 24.4 – Plate approach skills are transferring to the majors with a 17.1%/11.4% K%/BB% in 35 PA. He has 0 barrels, but an 89 MPH EV ain’t bad, so he’ll find the barrel of the bat eventually

8) (12) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS, 20.11 – Not only has his plate approach not regressed, but he’s taken it to another level recently with a 13.6%/22.2% K%/BB% in his last 19 games at Double-A

9) (13) Jordan Walker STL, 3B, 20.0 – Power hasn’t fully shown up with 4 homers and a 50.5% GB% in 40 games at Double-A, but at 6’5”, 220 pounds, that is the last thing we have to worry about

10) (8/UR) CJ Abrams SD, SS, 21.8 – I still love Abrams, but I just trust the power of Henderson and Walker more, and they are doing it in the upper levels of the minors now too. Like Baz, Abrams wasn’t included in the last Prospects Rankings but he ranked 8th on the latest Dynasty Rankings.

11) (8) George Kirby SEA, RHP, 24.4 – Exactly as advertised with plus control (2.4% BB%) of a plus 95.5 MPH fastball (30.4% whiff%), to go along with effective but not exceptional secondaries

12) (13/UR) MJ Melendez KCR, C, 23.6 – K% hasn’t ballooned in the majors with a respectable 27.1% whiff% which has allowed his no joke power to shine with a 91.7 MPH EV and 4 homers in 22 games

13) (9) Daniel Espino CLE, RHP, 21.5 – Currently out with some knee tendinitis that doesn’t seem serious, but he’s also been out since April 29th so maybe it was more serious than they were letting on. I wouldn’t downgrade him one iota because of the injury at this point

14) (21) Eury Perez MIA, RHP, 19.2 – 2.12 ERA with a 20/4 K/BB in 17 IP in May. The fastball has hit over 100 MPH this year. He’s gonna be an ace

15) (29/UR) MacKenzie Gore SDP, LHP, 23.3 – He’s outperforming the underlying numbers with a 1.71 ERA vs. a 3.32 xERA (also a 28.3% K% vs. a 25.1% whiff%), but that is just nitpicking as his electric 4 pitch mix is shining due to improved control (8.4% BB% in 42 IP)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 23, 2022May 26, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/23/22)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/23/22):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED MAY 2022 TOP 433 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED MAY 2022 TOP 316 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

Josh Naylor CLE, 1B/OF, 24.11 – Naylor crushed a low fastball out to centerfield at 108.1 MPH for his 6th homer in 21 games in the majors. He’s been crushing the ball all year with a 50% HardHit% (top 10% of the league). He never sold out for the flyball revolution, keeping that launch angle low (7.8 degrees), and it’s finally paying off with MLB going back to the dead ball which rewards line drive hitters. It’s a good life lesson. You don’t always have to adjust to the trends, just keep doing what you’re doing and let the trends come to you. He checked in at #308 on the Top 433 May 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings that hit my Patreon last week.

Nolan Gorman STL, 3B/2B, 22.1 – 3 for 5 with a 108.1 MPH double and is now 5 for 10 with a 1/2 K/BB in his 3 game Quad-A debut vs Pitt. The double came off Bryce Wilson and his 7.53 ERA. Gorman hits for power in his sleep with a 93 MPH EV and 19.4 degree launch angle. He also hasn’t been swinging and missing like a madman with a 22.7% whiff%. Of course, all of this damage came against Pitt, so the difficulty level might have actually been easier than his competition at Triple-A. Can’t wait for him to make his real MLB debut.

Roansy Contreras PIT, RHP, 22.7 – Speaking of that better competition at Triple-A, Pitt is finally deciding to field something that might resemble a real MLB team by calling up Contreras. Contreras was a guy who used to sit in the low 90’s and got by on the art of pitching, and then he showed up in 2021 pumping upper 90’s heat. He lost some control in that transformation, but that’s a tradeoff you gotta take. He’s a must add in all formats. Now we’re just waiting on Oneil Cruz control.

Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 23.8 – Enter Mr. Cruz stage left, as Cruz destroyed his 4th homer in 35 games off what looked like a pro whiffle ball pitcher. He’s coming on after an understandably slow start (because of the ridiculousness of not cracking the MLB squad out of camp) with 3 homers, 2 steals, a .879 OPS and 11/11 K/BB in his last 14 games.

Trevor Story BOS, SS, 29.6 – The post Coors adjustment period seems to be over as Story has been out of his mind over his last 7 games with 6 homers, a 1.572 OPS and a 4/5 K/BB. His 14.7% Barrel% is actually a career high. He’s back, baby.

Tony Gonsolin LAD, RHP, 28.1 – 6 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 7/1 K/BB vs. Philly. Gonsolin was one of my top pitcher targets this off-season, and he’s paying dividends with a 1.61 ERA (2.48 xERA) on the back of an excellent 86.9 MPH EV against. 23.5% HardHit% against is in the top 2% of the league. His fastball hasn’t been great, but all 3 of his secondaries have been dominating. He was a no brainer target for me considering his price, and this start really cemented his status as an impact fantasy starter.

Michael Kopech CHW, RHP, 26.1 – 7 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 6/2 K/BB vs. NYY. The only pitcher I was targeting more than Gonsolin was Kopech, and he’s also been on point with a 1.29 ERA (2.64 xERA) in 42 IP. He hasn’t gone full breakout like I hoped he would with a solid but unspectacular 26% whiff%, but he’s inducing weak contact with a well above average 4.9% Barrel% against.

Adley Rutschman BAL, C, 24.2 – The slow trickle of Baltimore’s top prospects getting the call has begun with Adley fittingly leading the charge. He’s 2 for 8 with a 1/1 K/BB in 2 games, so the plus plate approach looks good so far.

Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 22.6 – Grayson can’t be far behind, going 6 IP with 4 hits, 2 ER, and 9/1 K/BB at Triple-A. There is nothing left for him to prove in the minors with a 38.6%/8.2% K%/BB% in 43.1 IP. Baltimore’s time is coming.

Kyle Stowers BAL, OF, 24.5 – Stowers doesn’t always get included in that upcoming Baltimore youth movement, but he’s doing his best to stay noticed after cranking 3 homers yesterday to give him 9 on the season. More important than the power, which was never in doubt, is the excellent 22.8%/11.7% K%/BB% in 34 games at Triple-A.

Graham Ashcraft CIN, RHP, 24.5 – Ashcraft made his MLB debut and went 4.1 IP with 4 hits, 2 ER, and a 3/2 K/BB vs. Toronto. He’s not a huge strikeout guy, but his big stuff (97.4 MPH cutter and 97.2 MPH sinker) induces weak contact (84.1 MPH EV against) and keeps the ball on the ground (negative 5.4 degree launch angle). This isn’t a pitching style comp, but numbers wise maybe he can end up something like Framber Valdez.

MacKenzie Gore SDP, LHP, 23.3 – 6 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 6/2 K/BB vs. SFG. The fastball sat 96.4 MPH and he put up a 28% whiff% overall. With Clevinger hitting the IL with a triceps strain, Gore has a chance to really lock down that rotation spot. He’s just another example of pitching prospect development being all over the place.

Christopher Morel CHC, OF, 22.11 – Morel didn’t play yesterday, but he’s been too good not to mention. He’s has always had big talent, and he’s starting to refine that talent this year. He got the call straight from Double-A (147 wRC+), and hasn’t missed a beat in the majors with a 95.2 MPH EV, 23.5%/11.8% K%/BB%, and 27.7 ft/sec sprint speed. It’s resulted in 2 homers, 1 steal, and a 1.145 OPS in 15 AB. There is still hit tool risk, but he seems to be coming into his own. He’s worth a shot in any league, and he cracked my Updated Dynasty Rankings at #424.

Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 20.0 – Here’s what I predicted about Armstrong in my Predicting the 2023 Top 50 Dynasty Prospects Rankings this off-season, “Armstrong will not only pick up where he left off before he underwent shoulder surgery, he will show power potential many people doubt he has. He’ll profile as a less hyped version of Robert Hassell.” … Armstrong smashed his 6th homer yesterday and his profile looks exactly like a less hyped version of Robert Hassell, slashing .372/.463/.584 with 6 homers, 10 steals, and a 18.%/12.5% K%/BB% in 33 games at Single-A.

Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 21.1 – Volpe ripped his 5th homer and stole his 18th bag in 34 games at Double-A. He only has a 94 wRC+, but it’s mostly due to a .227 BABIP. 24.5%/13.5% K%/BB% and the power/speed numbers all look good. Don’t sell low based on the .197 BA.

Zac Veen COL, OF, 20.6 – 2 for 4 with a 0/1 K/BB and his 4th homer in 34 games at High-A. After an early season K binge, Veen’s notched a 22.4% K% in his last 23 games which is great to see considering his hit tool is really the only concern. He has a 134 wRC+ with 10 steals and a 13.7% BB%. He has one of the most vicious swings in the minors, and I think he’s going to be a fantasy stud when it’s all said and done.

Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 19.4 – 2 for 4 with 2 K’s and his 4th homer. Dominguez has fully shook off his slow start and is now slashing .298/.372/.548 with 4 homers, 3 steals, and a 30/9 K/BB in his last 21 games. The K’s are still a problem, but a 118 wRC+ in 33 games at Single-A ain’t bad at all. He’s not going full Kevin Maitan on us, thankfully, but he’s not going full Wander Franco either. He’s settling in somewhere in between.

Jairo Pomares SFG, OF, 21.8 – Pomares went deep twice yesterday to bring his season wRC+ up to 121 in 27 games at High-A. His walk rate is up to a career high 9.7%, but the K% remains high too at 31.1%. He’s got a whip quick swing and just looks like a player in the box. He’s not exactly dominating with a .768 OPS, but I’m still in on him.

Vinnie Pasquantino KCR, 1B, 24.6 – Vinnie with the Skinny just keeps on crushing, going 3 for 4 with a homer and 0 K’s. He has 10 homers with a 14.6%/13.5% K%/BB% in 40 games at Triple-A. This man has been as consistent as they come with a 152 wRC+ at Rookie Ball in 2019, a 154 wRC+ at High-A in 2021, a 153 wRC+ at Double-A in 2021, and now a 152 wRC+ at Triple-A this year.

Miguel Vargas LAD, 3B, 22.4 – Vargas is right on Pasquantino’s tail for the plate approach/power combo crown, going 2 for 4 with his 7th homer yesterday. He now has a 15.1%/14.6% K%/BB% with a 137 wRC+ in 41 games at Triple-A

Vaughn Grissom ATL, SS, 21.5 – 3 for 4 with a double, homer, steal, and 0/1 K/BB. Grissom’s plate approach has been silly elite with a 12.6%/11.3% K%/BB% in 34 games at High-A, and while that’s his calling card, don’t underestimate his very solid power (4 homers) and speed (6 steals).

Ken Waldichuk NYY, LHP, 24.5 – Waldichuk made his Triple-A debut and showed out, going 5.1 IP with 3 hits, 1 ER, and a 9/2 K/BB. He’s been an absolute strikeout machine his entire pro career with 267 strikeouts in 173.1 IP. He doesn’t have huge stuff but the guy knows how to pitch and the results don’t lie.

Matt Canterino MIN, RHP, 24.5 – 4 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER, 6/1 K/BB at Double-A. Canterino does have the huge stuff, but injuries have derailed his hype train. He’s been nothing but filthy when on the mound and now has a 1.53 ERA and 116/26 K/BB in 76.1 career IP. Now is mostly certainly the time to pounce if he’s still out there in your league.

Antoine Kelly MIL, LHP, 22.5 – 5.2 IP, 3 hits, 3 ER, 13/1 K/BB at High-A. Kelly is bouncing back from a terrible 2021 due to shaking the rust off from thoracic outlet surgery (9.78 ERA), and now has a 2.58 ERA with a 33.8%/12.1% K%/BB% in 39.1 IP this year. The fastball sits mid 90’s from a three quarters arm slot and the slider looks good too. Still risk, but big K upside.

Gabriel Martinez TOR, OF, 19.10 – Martinez is putting himself on the map, going 4 for 7 with a dinger yesterday. He’s showing off an above average hit/power combo as a 19 year old at Single-A, slashing .278/..342/.474 with 6 homers and a 17.1%/8.2% K%/BB% in 36 games. He’s a nice grab in a deeper league.

Bo Naylor CLE, C, 22.3 – Naylor was on the map, and then off the map after a tough 2021, and now he’s putting himself back on the map with a strong season at Double-A. He homered yesterday and now has a very respectable triple-slash of .281/.423/.479 with 3 homers, 7 steals, and a 21.1%/18.7% K%/BB% in 30 games. A catcher who can chip in with steals and maintain a solid average isn’t too bad at all.

Joe Mack MIA, C, 19.3 – Mack made his season debut on May 17th and it didn’t take long for him to get going as he’s 4 for 6 with a double and a homer in his last 2 games. He has a cool 200 wRC+ in 4 games and has the potential to be one of the top catcher prospects in baseball in the not too distant future.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 17, 2022May 20, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 432 May 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

It’s that time of the month again when the flowers are blooming and the rankings are flowing. It’s Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week! Last month’s rankings are in parenthesis. Here is the Top 432 May 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS AND TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED May 2022 TOP 316 DYNASTY PROSEPCTS RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

Tier 1

1) (1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 27.10 – Strikeouts are down in a good way (22.4% K% at the dish) and up in a good way (35.4% K% on the hump)

2) (2) Juan Soto WASH, OF, 23.6 – Perfect 3 for 3 on the bases keeps him just enough in that all category contributor category

3) (3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 24.4 – Sore groin has kept him out since the 10th, but he should return soon. K rate is a bit high at 37% and sprint speed is a bit low at 27.7 ft/sec, but it’s merely something to keep an eye on as he’s back to dominating in 10 games since returning from a torn ACL

4) (5) Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 23.4 – Been slowly ramping up baseball activities as he tries to return from a broken wrist at some point in June

5 (8) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 25.3 – Has a 1.093 OPS in his last 19 games. Underlying numbers were elite even while he was slumping early. Tack on 8 steals and there is no way around the fact that Tucker is the elite of the elite

6) (4) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 23.1 – Launch is back down to 4.5 degrees and he hasn’t been able to keep up last year’s insane breakout, but taking into the account the suppressed run environment, he’s still killing it with a 140 wRC+

7) (15) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 24.9 – 95.1 MPH EV trails only Stanton and Judge, and the plate approach is elite with a 18%/14.1% K%/BB%

Tier 2

8) (6) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 24.2 – Swing and miss is up with a 25.3% K%, launch angle is still down with a 7.2 degree launch, and BB% is still low with a 5.1% BB%. A next level breakout doesn’t seem to be in the cards this year, but he’ll still be a 5 cat stud.

9) (10) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 24.9 – Backing up his 2021 contact gains with a 13.9% K%

10) (11) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 21.2 – Power is looking good with a 90 MPH EV, and he’s running enough to keep him interesting in that category with 3 steals. I almost popped him over Bichette, but I couldn’t do it quite yet

11) (7) Trea Turner LAD, SS, 28.10 – 2021 homer breakout hasn’t held with only 1 homer, but a career high 50% HardHit% shows the power will likely come. Only reason for the small drop was because the youngsters (Yordan, Robert, Franco) don’t seem as risky after strong starts

12) (12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 29.6 – Still elite

13) (13) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 29.5 – Still elite

14) (17) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 30.8 – He’s healthy. Career high 24.7% barrel%

Shadow14 (Shadow13) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 27.9

15) (9) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 25.4 – .236 BABIP is the main thing keeping the numbers down (.698 OPS), although he hasn’t been hitting the ball very hard (87 MPH EV), and he’s been a bit slower (27.3 ft/sec sprint speed).

16) (14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 25.5 – Hit/power combo looks as good as ever

17) (16) Corbin Burnes MIL, RHP, 27.5 – Backing up his much improved control from last season with a 4.7% BB%

18) (18) Manny Machado SD, 3B, 29.9 – Here’s what I wrote for Machado in my off-season Top 1,000, “He’s been a bit inconsistent in his career, going back and forth between great years and solid years since 2017, so if the trend holds, he is in for one hell of a 2022.” … The trend is holding as Machado is going insane with a 1.029 OPS

Tier 3

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS AND TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED May 2022 TOP 316 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 9, 2022May 17, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/9/22)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/9/22):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED APRIL 2022 TOP 414 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED MAY 2022 TOP 316 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

George Kirby SEA, RHP, 24.2 – Kirby made his MLB debut and went 6 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER and a 7/0 K/BB vs. Tampa. The 4-seamer dominated, sitting 95.8 MPH with a 48% whiff% on the pitch. He had just climbed to #8 overall on my Updated Top 316 Prospects Rankings over on my Patreon, writing, “He could take Brash’s spot in the rotation shortly.” Granted, you didn’t have to be Prospectdamus to see that one coming.

Royce Lewis MIN, SS, 22.10 – Lewis followed in Kirby’s footsteps, rising to #7 on the Updated Prospects List and then getting the call shortly after that. He’s 3 for 10 with a double and K in his 3 game debut, and the underlying numbers are impressive with a 91.8 MPH EV, 22.1 degree launch, and an 11.1% whiff%. He might not stay up with Correa’s injury not as bad as originally feared, but Lewis is trending towards being a fantasy star.

Manuel Margot TBR, OF, 27.6 – I’ve had Margot in the late career breakout bucket for awhile now, seeing a similar career path to Lorenzo Cain, and it might finally be happening as Margot ripped his third homer of the year to bring his season wRC+ up to 170 in 24 games. He has a career high 91.4 MPH EV, 17.3 degree launch angle, and 19.7% whiff%.

Juan Yepez STL, 1B/3B/OF, 24.0 – Yepez smashed his first MLB homer on a 406 foot shot to the deepest part of the ballpark. He is starting his MLB career on a 5 game hit streak, and 4 of those games were multi hit games. He’s not guaranteed a full time job, but as long as he keeps hitting, they will find a way to get his bat in the lineup.

Owen Miller CLE, 1B/2B, 25.6 – Miller stays hot with his 3rd homer in 22 games. He’s handily outperforming his underlying numbers (.445 wOBA vs. .368 xwOBA), so while I think he can be a solid bat long term, I don’t think he is going to maintain anything close to this level. I would consider him a sell high candidate.

Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 21.7 – Carroll has been going bonkos all season, and he’s now going doubly bonkos with his 2nd straight 2 homer game. That’s 4 homers in his last 2 games for 9 homers on the season. Tack on 8 steals and a .326 BA and he is in the conversation for the top prospect in baseball. He checked in at #5 on my Updated Top 316 Prospects Rankings.

Zack Gelof OAK, 3B, 22.5 – Gelof lifted off twice as well for his 3rd and 4th homers in 25 games at Double-A, and both were hit the opposite way. A fan in a cartoonishly sized cowboy hat had the first homer all lined up but he botched the play. Gelof has a 123 wRC+ at the level, but a 27.6%/6.5% is a little worrisome when trying to project his production out on the MLB level.

Austin Martin MIN, OF, 23.0 – It took long enough but Martin finally got on the board, pulling a breaking ball that never really broke for his 1st homer of the year. 13.7%/12.8% K%/BB% with 14 steals in 25 games at Double-A looks great, but he’s just not doing enough damage on contact with a .337 SLG.

Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 19.8 – Lawlar continues to separate himself from the 2021 high school SS class, going 2 for 5 with a double, homer, and 0 K’s. He’s now slashing .301/.443/.542 with 6 homers, 15 steals, and a 25.5%/16% K%/BB% in 23 games at Single-A.

Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 21.0 – 5 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 5/0 K/BB at Double-A. Plus control of his mid 90’s fastball is his bread and butter, and the secondaries have been more refined this year. He rose to #53 overall on the Updated Prospects Rankings, one spot ahead of one of my favorite prospects, Brayan Bello.

Mick Abel PHI, RHP, 20.7 – 4 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 6/5 K/BB at High-A. Seeing all the walks coming back is not great, but it’s still been much improved overall with a 10.4% BB% in 18 IP. The stuff is filthy and he’s been a K machine with a 37.7% K%. After the top arms in the upper levels graduate, Abel should rise into elite pitching prospect territory.

Edward Cabrera MIA, RHP, 23.11 – Max Meyer is making everyone forget about Cabrera, but he did his best to make as all remember yesterday, going 5 IP with 3 hits, 0 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB. He’s still struggling with his control on the season though with a 15/8 K/BB in 13 IP. Meyer should be the next man up in Miami, but it’s not out the realm they go back to Cabrera first.

Edwin Arroyo SEA, SS, 18.7 – 2 for 5 with his 5th homer in 24 games at Single-A. He now has a 149 wRC+ with 6 steals and a 18.6%/10.6% K%/BB%. Arroyo has been out of his mind recently and is one of the top breakouts in the first month of the season. He climbed to #167 on the Updated Top 316 Prospects Rankings, and even that might not be enough.

Carson Williams TBR, SS, 18.9 – Williams is another 18 year old breaking out in full season ball, jacking his 3rd homer in 21 games and is now slashing .301/.372/.578 with 3 homers, and 7 steals. The 37.2% K% is quite high, but he’s only 18, and his swing is so damn explosive at 6’2”, 180 pounds it’s hard not to get excited.

Roberto Campos DET, OF, 18.10 – Campos crushed his first homer of the year in 25 games at Single-A, but he’s been hitting the ball really hard all year and his power isn’t in question. More importantly, the K rate has been strong with a 22.4%/7.1% K%/BB% and has been solid all year with a 108 wRC+. Now is probably the time to buy in if he’s still out there.

Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 18.1 – The 18 year old Chourio made his season debut at Single-A last week and he’s done nothing but hit since then. He cranked his first homer yesterday and is now slashing .480/.519/.800 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 14.8%/7.4% K%/BB% in 6 games. I’ve ranked Chourio pretty aggressively, and the hype is about to blow up if he keeps this up. Elite prospect potential.

Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 22.2 – Make it #6 for Casas at Triple-A. I imagine that when Bobbly Dalbec looks in the mirror to brush to his teeth in the morning, he sees Casas right behind him like it’s a hacky horror movie.

Nick Yorke BOS, 2B, 20.0 – Yorke’s been finding his power stroke of late, drilling his first 2 homers of the year in his last 5 games. This one was a no doubter out to deep centerfield, showing he definitely has some raw juice in the tank. He has a 21.3% K% with a .238 BA, so the hit tool hasn’t exactly been as elite as hoped.

Justin Foscue TEX, 2B/3B, 23.1 – Foscue has been quietly putting in work at Double-A, going 2 for 3 with a homer and 2 walks. He has a 15.9%/14.5% K%/BB% with a 145 wRC+ in 16 games at Double-A. He’s joining Josh Jung as two rock solid college bats who should produce in Texas for years to come.

Brendon Davis LAA, 3B/OF, 24.8 – 2 for 5 with his 5th homer. The surface stats haven’t been great with an 88 wRC+, but the underlying numbers look excellent with a 17.9%/12.2% K%/BB% and a 37.6% GB% in 28 games at Triple-A. He has big power at 6’4”, 185 pounds, and seeing the K rate being kept in check is big.

Blaze Alexander ARI, SS, 22.11 – Alexander is bouncing back from a down 2021, walloping 2 homers yesterday and is now slashing .322/.403/.644 with 4 homers and 3 steals in 15 games. 31.3% K% is still too high, but he’s putting himself back on the map.

Ken Waldichuk NYY, LHP, 24.3 – Waldichuk had the best start of the day, going 5 hitless innings with a 12/3 K/BB. He’s a 24 year old “crafty lefty” dominating younger competition at Double-A with a 1.14 ERA and 40/9 K/BB in 23.2 IP. I wouldn’t go crazy for him, but the guy obviously knows how to pitch.

Hayden Wesneski NYY, RHP, 24.4 – Wesneski is the 24 year old Yankees pitching prospect I prefer, and he pitched damn well himself, going 5 IP with 4 hits, 2 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB at Triple-A. He does have the big stuff and is now sitting on a 2.48 ERA with a 32/6/ K/BB in 29 IP.

Michael Burrows PIT, RHP, 22.5 – One of the most underrated pitchers in the minors continued his dominance, going 4 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB. The stuff is straight filthy and he’s rocking a 34%/6.8% K%/BB% in 26.2 IP at Double-A. He’s a must pick up in every league.

Jacob Amaya LAD, SS, 23.8 – The Amaya breakout continues, going 3 for 5 with a triple, homer, and a 1/3 K/BB in a doubleheader. Simply calling it a breakout might be an understatement because the the numbers are straight elite, slashing .351/.473/.797 with 7 homers (27.9% GB%), 2 steals, and a 13.2%/18.7% K%/BB% in 22 games at Double-A. He cracked the Updated Prospects Rankings at #200, and he just keeps on rising.

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 4, 2022May 7, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 316 May 2022 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings

I’ve decided to be very strict about prospect eligibility. All prospects that have exceeded their rookie eligibility according to Baseball Reference and all currently in the majors are excluded. Here is the Top 316 May 2022 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

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1) Riley Greene DET, OF, 21.6 – Greene likely wouldn’t have been eligible to crack this list had he not gone down with a broken foot. But he did break his foot, and will have to settle for ascending to top dog status on prospect lists.

2) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 22.4 – Last 2 outings haven’t been great but he got BABIP’d to death with 0 homers and good K/BB numbers. 37.9%/5.7% K%/BB% in 21.2 IP at Triple-A shows the dominance

3) Adley Rutschman BAL, C, 24.2 – Started his rehab assignment at High-A from a strained right triceps and is unsurprisingly far too advanced for the level with a 0/2 K/BB and 230 wRC+ in 4 games.

4) Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 23.6 – 32.9% K% and 57 wRC+ in 19 games at Triple-A. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the struggles were related to the disappointment of not cracking the opening day roster.

5) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 21.7 – Doing everything at Double-A with 4 homers, 7 steals, and a 23.6%/13.5% K%/BB%

6) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 20.11 – Early season struggles are in the rear view mirror. A .239 BABIP is really the only thing keeping his numbers down at Double-A

7) Royce Lewis MIN, SS, 22.10 – Came back from the knee surgery a new man, putting up a 19.4%/16.1% K%/BB% in 21 games at Triple-A. Power and speed look great too

8) George Kirby SEA, RHP, 24.2 – Performing like his usual dominant self, and the secondaries look improved. He could take Brash’s spot in the rotation shortly

9) Daniel Espino CLE, RHP, 21.3 – Currently out with some knee tendinitis that doesn’t seem serious. Insane 51.5%/5.9% K%/BB% in 18.1 IP at Double-A.

10) Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 22.2 – Is not long for the minors with Dalbec struggling hard

11) Robert Hassell SDP, OF, 20.7 – Destroying High-A with a 15.4%/9.9% K%/BB%, 5 homers and 9 steals. Something to note, the minor leagues still clearly have the super happy fun balls, so these guys with high groundball rates might struggle to hit for this kind of power in the majors assuming MLB doesn’t switch back to the juiced balls in the future. Carroll and Hassell both have over 50% groundball rates

12) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS, 20.9 – Strikeout problems have disappeared completely at Double-A with a 19.1%/23.6% K%/BB% in 20 games

13) Jordan Walker STL, 3B, 19.10 – 22.9%/12% K%/BB% is huge to see in 18 games at Double-A considering his raw power and athleticism

14) Max Meyer MIA, RHP, 22.11 – One of the most impressive pitchers in the minors this year. 32.4%/5.9% K%/BB% with a 1.71 ERA in 26.1 IP at Triple-A. Still mostly fastball/slider, but the changeup is improving

15) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 21.1 – Game power is ticking up with 4 homers and a 44.1% GB% in 21 games at Double-A

16) Miguel Vargas LAD, 3B, 22.4 – Everything is translating to Triple-A

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 2, 2022May 2, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/2/22)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/2/22):

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Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 21.4 – The umpires have been screwing Julio all season, and he took out his frustration on poor Sandy Alcantara yesterday, absolutely drilling a 110.4 MPH, 450 foot bomb for his first of many MLB homers. He’s been hot over his last nine games, slashing .364/.432/.546 with an 8/3 K/BB. He leads all of baseball with 9 steals, and his 29.9 ft/sec sprint speed is in the top 1% of the league. Pitchers better hope the umps keep expanding the strike zone on him, because it’s about to get ugly.

Jarred Kelenic SEA, OF, 22.9 – Speaking of getting ugly, Kelenic went 0 for 3 with 2 K’s and now has a .508 OPS with an 85.2 MPH EV and 38.4% whiff% on the year. There are no silver linings. He dropped to 68th overall on my the Updated Dynasty Rankings over on my Patreon a few weeks ago, and he’ll drop even further on the next update.

J.P. Crawford SEA, SS, 27.4 – Crawford has been molten hot, going 2 for 3 with a homer, double and walk. He now has 4 homers with a 1.091 OPS and 9.7%/11/8% K%/BB% in 22 games. I’m struggling to buy into the breakout because of an 85.1 MPH EV and 20.8% whiff%. I would sell high if you can.

Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 19.0 – Painter’s dominance continued, going 4 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 6/2 K/BB at Single-A. His fastball sat 96.5 MPH and put up a 38% whiff%. He now leads all minor league pitchers with more than 2 IP with a negative 0.68 xFIP. I joked on Twitter last week that he’s been so dominant the advanced stats just said fuck it, they should really start taking runs away from the other team. He’ll be pushing Top 50 prospect status when my Updated Top 300 Prospects Rankings hit Patreon tomorrow.

Jackson Jobe DET, RHP, 19.8 – Jobe is trying his best to keep up with Painter to hold his crown as the top rated high school pitcher from the 2021 draft class, going 3 IP with 3 hits, 2 ER, and a 3/1 K/BB. The fastball sat 95.8 MPH and his slider continues to spin enough to make a guy dizzy with a 3084 spin rate. It’s still close, but I think I prefer Painter right now.

Michael Harris ATL, OF, 21.2 – The game power has arrived in all it’s glory as Harris lifted off twice yesterday for his 3rd and 4th homers of the year at Double-A. He walloped a 432 foot shot to leadoff the game and then dug one almost out of the dirt off a sidewinder righty for his 2nd. The plate approach (18.8%/8.3% K%/BB%) and speed (9 steals in 21 games) are working too. He’s dotting his i’s, crossing his t’s, and semi circling his p’s.

Matt McLain CIN, SS, 22.8 – McLain’s been minding his P’s and Q’s at Double-A as well, matching Harris with a 2 homer game. He took both homers out to deep centerfield. How much power he would get to was a question coming out of the draft, but he’s had no issues with 5 homers and a 35% GB% in 20 games.

Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 22.2 – I’m all out of expressions involving the alphabet, but the only letter Casas needs to focus on is K. Bobby Dalbec’s K’s that is. Casas is coming for the starting 1B job with his 5th homer in 23 games at Triple-A while Dalbec is sitting on a 29 wRC+ with a 30.7% K% in the majors.

Ryan Helsley STL, Closer Committee, 27.9 – Picked up his first save, going 2 perfect innings with 4 K’s. Helsley’s been silly good all year with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 16/0 K/BB in 8.1 IP. His fastball is up to 98.7 MPH and his cutter and curve are putting up a 55.6% and 50% whiff%, respectively. He’s likely in a closer committee right now, but he has the chance to pull away with the role.

Triston McKenzie CLE, RHP, 24.9 – McKenzie lost his control for the first time in his career in 2021, and it’s back this year, going 6.1 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER, and a 7/1 K/BB vs. Oakland. He has an above average 7.4% BB% on the year. His whiff% is only sitting at 22.7%, but as long as the control is there, he should be solid.

Josh Winder MIN, RHP, 25.6 – Winder got his first MLB start and impressed, going 6 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER and 7/1 K/BB vs. Tampa. The fastball sat 94.9 MPH, the slider had a 76 MPH EV against, and the curve and change handled the whiffs, leading to a 27% whiff% overall. He has good stuff with a starter’s repertoire. It all seems to add up to a rock solid mid rotation starter.

George Kirby SEA, RHP, 24.2 – 5 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 7/0 K/BB at Triple-A. His fastball sat 95.7 MPH and the slider induced weak contact with a 83 MPH EV against. The K/BB numbers have been pristine all year with a 34.4%/5.4% K%/BB% in 24.2 IP. It might not be long before he takes Brash’s spot in the rotation.

Nick Pratto KCR, 1B, 23.7 – Pratto went deep yesterday and has now homered in back to back games for his 4th and 5th homers in 21 games at Triple-A. He’s still striking out too much with a 33.3% K%, but after striking out 15 times in his first 8 games, he’s brought it down to a more reasonable 16 times over his last 13 games.

Vinnie Pasquantino KCR, 1B, 24.6 – The competition is on for Kansas City’s first baseman of the future job. Pasquantino ripped his 4th homer in 22 games at Triple-A, and his comes with a sparkling 10.9%/16.3% K%/BB%. He’s not as good of a defender, which could still give the edge to Pratto.

Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 21.0 – It didn’t take long for Volpe to shake off his slow start at Double-A, homering for his 3rd time yesterday. More importantly, he didn’t strikeout once and now has a 6/10 K/BB in his last 9 games to bring his season K%/BB% up to a very good 25.3%/16.1%.

Pedro Leon HOU, OF/SS, 23.10 – The ball has been exploding off Leon’s bat this year, and he crushed his 3rd homer on a 110.4 MPH rocket. The strikeouts remain a problem with a 32.3% K%, but at least we know he’s going to do damage when he does make contact.

Tyler Soderstrom OAK, C, 20.5 – Soderstrom got ahold of his 3rd homer in 19 games at High-A, but it’s been a struggle otherwise with a 31.5%/8.2% K%/BB%, 50% GB% and 72 wRC+.

Aeverson Arteaga SFG, SS, 19.2 – Arteaga’s been hitting the ball very hard all year, and he tacked on his 3rd homer on a screaming liner. He has a 104 wRC+ in 18 games at Single-A, but he’s had strikeout problems with a 35.4% K%.

Alex Ramirez NYM, OF, 19.2 – Ramirez cranked a 103.9 MPH, 382 foot shot for his first homer of the year in 18 games at Single-A. He’s been much improved his 2nd time around at the level with a 159 wRC+ and 19.5%/4.9% K%/BB%.

Seth Johnson TB, RHP, 23.7 – 3.2 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 7/2 K/BB at High-A. Johnson has been a strikeout and walk machine all year with a 40.4%/15.4% K%/BB% in 12.1 IP. He features a plus fastball/slider combo and is trending toward some kind of multi inning role. Upside is high though if he can improve his control.

Andrew Abbott CIN, LHP, 22.10 – 6 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 10/1 K/BB at High-A. This is his 3rd straight start with over 10 K’s and now has a 42.7%/8.5% K%/BB% in 21 IP. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff with a low 90’s fastball, and while his control has been solid he’s not a pinpoint control guy, so I’m not going bonkos over the hot start. Regardless, his stock is definitely up in the early going.

Royber Salinas ATL, RHP, 21.1 – 5 IP, 1 hit, 1 ER, 9/1 K/BB at Single-A. The control was much improved in this one and the fastball/breaking ball combo was still racking up whiffs. I would like to see him start picking on people his own size (and age), but the stuff is undeniably electric.

Luis Rodriguez LAD, OF, 19.8 – Rodriguez got on the board with his first homer of the year at Single-A. His 30.9% K% in rookie ball last year was a little concerning, but it’s improved a bit in full season ball with a 27.3% K%, and he’s walking like crazy with a 22.7% BB%. He’s sitting on a 151 wRC+ in 19 games.

Michael Massey KCR, 2B, 24.1 – Checking in at #840 on my offseason Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings, Massey is off to a strong start at Double-A, hitting his 5th homer and nabbing his 3rd bag in 20 games. The plus contact rates have transferred with a 19.4% K%, but so has the below average walk rates (5.4% BB%). He might end up a Quad-A type, but he has fantasy friendly upside if he can find playing time.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)