Patreon Post: End of Season Wild Card Week

Let’s shake things up to close out the year with some end of season fireworks. My Top 13 Early Off-Season Dynasty Baseball Targets just hit the Patreon this afternoon, which will be followed by a Sell article tomorrow, and then a Dynasty Baseball Superlatives/Awards article after that. Here is the 2016 MiLB Player Superlatives/Awards article I wrote in 2016 if you weren’t reading me back then (2016 MiLB Player Superlatives/Awards – Imaginary Brick Wall). Come on over to the Patreon to check it out!

– Halp

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR WILD CARD WEEK AND TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 360 SEPTEMBER 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 SEPTEMBER 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS (one of my favorite things I’ve ever written)
-MID-SEASON OBP TOP 447 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS 
-MID-SEASON POINTS/6+CATS/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 430 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 40 2023 FYPD RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT: Team Prospect Lists, Positional Dynasty Rankings, and early access to the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

Patreon Post: Top 456 September 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

Previous rankings from August through April are in parenthesis, in that order. Here is the Top 456 September 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS AND TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON AND OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 360 SEPTEMBER 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS (one of my favorite things I’ve ever written)
-MID-SEASON OBP TOP 447 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS 
-MID-SEASON POINTS/6+CATS/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 430 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 40 2023 FYPD RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT: Team Prospect Lists, Positional Dynasty Rankings, and early access to the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

Tier 1

1) 1) (1) (1) (1) (1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 28.3 – M-V-P … M-V-P … M-V-P (I actually don’t have a strong opinion on it as Judge’s season is insane too. I just can’t seem to care about Hall of Fame and End of Season award debates)

Tier 2

2) (4) (4) (6) (22) (21) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 21.8 – Considering Soto’s weak finish, Acuna’s knee, and Tatis’ everything, I’m not sure there is much of an argument against Julio being the 2nd best dynasty asset in the game. Lack of steals in the 2nd half is the only quibble

3) (2) (2) (2) (3) (3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 24.9 – Only 13 homers in 107 games but he should be much better as he gets further away from the knee injury

4) (5) (8) (8) (7) (15) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 25.3 – Finishing strong with a 1.370 OPS in 12 September games

5) (3) (3) (3) (2) (2) Juan Soto SDP, OF, 23.11 – .752 OPS in 38 games with San Diego. 90.8 MPH EV is down 2.2 MPH from 2021 and is a 4 year low. Having said all that, I would buy hard this off-season if you can get any discount on him at all

6) (6) (5) (7) (26) (20) Bobby Witt Jr. KC, SS, 22.3

7) (6) (5) (4) (5) Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 23.7

8) (8) (7) (4) (5) (8) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 25.8

9) (9) (11) (21) (24) (27) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 30.4 – He’s having a career year in a contract year. Next year he will have that guaranteed fat contract and could be with a new team too. Call me crazy, but I’m not sure we can expect him to hit 60 every year from here on out.

10) (10) (9) (10) (11) (7) Trea Turner LAD, SS, 29.3

Shadow10) (10) (9) (16) (14) (13) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 27.10

11) (11) (10) (9) (6) (4) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 23.7 – 8 steals is a career high by far

12) (12) (13) (15) (13) (13) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 29.8 – Hasn’t rounded into form yet returning from injury with a .755 OPS in 19 games. Zero worries long term

13) (13) (12) (11) (12) (12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 29.10 

14) (15) 16) (20) (35) (69) Shane McClanahan TBR, LHP, 25.4 – Returned from a shoulder impingement and looked like his usual dominant self in his first start back

15) (17) (36) (37) (32) (34) Jacob deGrom NYM, RHP, 34.1 – 86/4 K/BB in 54.1 IP … enough said

16) (15) (18) (16) (14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 25.9 – .616 OPS in his last 39 games, although he’s been heating back up with a .910 OPS in 19 September games

17) (20) (20) (22) (18) (18) Manny Machado SD, 3B, 30.0

18) (21) (21) (17) (19) (22) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 29.9 – The off-season injury concerns proved to be overblown

19) (16) (17) (19) (17) (16) Corbin Burnes MIL, RHP, 27.9 – He’s still great, but he took a step back from his untouchable 2021

Tier 3

20) (42) (66) (112) (130) (287) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 21.6 – 1.112 OPS in his last 23 games. He’s locking in his status as a near elite dynasty asset

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS AND TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON AND OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 360 SEPTEMBER 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS (one of my favorite things I’ve ever written)
-MID-SEASON OBP TOP 447 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS 
-MID-SEASON POINTS/6+CATS/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 430 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 40 2023 FYPD RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT: Team Prospect Lists, Positional Dynasty Rankings, and early access to the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (9/12/22)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (9/12/22):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON AND OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 360 SEPTEMBER 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 455 AUGUST 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS (one of my favorite things I’ve ever written)
-MID-SEASON OBP TOP 447 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS 
-MID-SEASON POINTS/6+CATS/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 430 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 40 2023 FYPD RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT: Team Prospect Lists, Positional Dynasty Rankings, and early access to the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.1 – Don’t you do it. Don’t you dare do it. I know you’re getting that wandering eye. You love baseball, but damn, football is looking so sexy rolling up to the party all fresh faced with nothing but hope and potential. But just you wait. Soon half your roster will be out with a high ankle sprain, your favorite team’s O-Line will be a sieve, and you’ll be spending 75% of your FAAB on some 3rd string running back. Then you’ll be begging to come back. Your old ball and chain, baseball, is even willing to meet you halfway. They’re willing to bring new people into the bedroom! So many of the games top prospects have gotten the call, none more exciting than my #1 fantasy prospect, Corbin Carroll. He went 1 for 4 with a 101.3 MPH single that he hit into the ground at a negative 48 degree launch angle. That’s been the story of his MLB debut as he has a respectable 88.5/93.7 MPH AVG/FB EV, but he hasn’t been lifting the ball with a negative 1.3 degree launch. He’s the fastest man in baseball with a 30.6 ft/sec sprint speed, but he’s 0 for 1 on the bases in 11 games. He has some swing and miss in his game, and while a 29.5% K% is high, the 26% whiff% shows it likely won’t be a major issue. He’s done enough to hang onto the top spot, but he has someone right on his tail …

Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS, 21.2 – The #2 ranked prospect on the Updated Top 360 Dynasty Prospects Rankings that just hit my Patreon last week, Henderson went 0 for 1 with a 1/1 K/BB coming off the bench. The game here is to bench these guys enough for them to maintain their rookie status for 2023. Like Carroll, he’s been solid in his pro debut with nothing setting off alarm bells. He has a 89.9 MPH EV, 9.2 degree launch, and a 20%/8.9% K%/BB%. His speed also might have been undersold as a 28.8 ft/sec sprint speed is damn fast.

Josh Jung TEX, 3B, 24.6 – Jung had to earn this MLB debut, coming back from shoulder surgery, and he blew his load early with a homer in his very first at bat on Friday. It hasn’t been as good since, putting up the golden sombrero yesterday (0 for 4 with 4 K’s). A golden sombrero literally does sound like a quite disgusting sex act (no judgement if that’s your thing). I looked up the origin of golden sombrero, thinking it would be some super cool story (also worried that it might have been a little racist), but turns out there is no story. According to Wikipedia, baseball thought calling 3 goals in hockey a “hat trick” was cool, “and since four is bigger than three, the rationale was that a four-strikeout performance should be referred to by a bigger hat, such as a sombrero.” Pretty uninspiring. Jung has a 83.8 MPH EV with a 44% whiff% in his 3 game debut.

Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 22.8 – Cases went 0 for 3 with a K yesterday, and his MLB debut has been similar to Jung’s with 1 homer and not much else. The 35.7% whiff% in 7 games will be something to keep an eye on as the hope was for Casas to be an excellent all around hitter, not just a low average slugger.

Michael Harris ATL, OF, 21.5 – Atlanta didn’t wait until September to call up their young studs, and Harris rewarded them majorly for their boldness. He homered twice yesterday and the cement is now starting to dry on his status as an elite dynasty asset. He ranked 42nd overall on the August Top 455 Dynasty Rankings (Patreon), and he might be pushing Top 20 status when I update the rankings for September next week.

Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 21.8 – Speaking of the cement drying on an elite dynasty asset, Rodriguez’ dried so long ago it even has an imprint of my hand with “Halp was here, April 2022” etched into it for eternity. He went 3 for 4 with 2 bombs yesterday, and if you told me you wanted to take him 1st overall in a new dynasty league this off-season, it would be hard for me to argue against it. Ohtani might still be my top choice, but I think Julio could be a close 2nd.

Luis Patino TBR, RHP, 22.8 – Let’s keep the excitement going with Patino who is getting another crack at the rotation and … yikes. He gave up 9 earned in 1.1 IP and the stuff didn’t look all that good either with a decent 94.6 MPH fastball and relatively low spin rates on all of his pitches. He’s still young, but I’m starting to sour on him a bit.

Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 22.10 – Rodriguez returned from a lat strain and he definitely has some rust to shake off. He went 2.2 IP with 1 hit, 4 ER and a 7/3 K/BB at Double-A. You can never relax when you are banking on pitching prospects to carry the future of your dynasty team. Just look at the ghost of Forrest Whitley who has a 7.07 ERA in 28 IP at Triple-A this year. Or Daniel Espino disappearing into thin air so completely that it would make David Copperfield jealous.

Spencer Torkelson DET, 3B/1B, 22.11 – Torkelson returned to the majors and he’s trying to make us forget about the struggles that got him sent down in the first place. He went 1 for 3 with a 107 MPH double and now has a 1.030 OPS with a 5/3 K/BB and 97 MPH EV in 8 games since returning. He just might be able to rekindle those new love butterflies we all had earlier in the season if he keeps killing it down the stretch.

Michael Massey KCR, 2B, 24.4 – Massey is someone I am going to be grabbing a ton of this off-season. He went 1 for 3 with a homer and 1/1 K/BB yesterday. The underlying numbers look great to me with a 90.5 MPH EV, 16.8 degree launch angle, 15.5% barrel% and 22.7% K%. He’s not super fast, but he’s proving he has some real stolen base skills (3 for 3 on the bases). He might not be a league winner, but I think he is going to be sneaky good next year.

Jonathan Aranda TBR, 1B/2B/3B, 24.0 – 1 for 3 with a 1/1 K/BB. Aranda is trying to wade his way through Tampa’s deep roster to get playing time, and when he does, he’s proving that he’s just a damn good hitter no matter what the level. He has a 94.4 MPH EV with a 15.4%/11.5% K/BB% in 26 MPH PA. Playing time is going to be an issue and he might not have super high upside, but it’s pretty clear this guy is going to hit.

George Valera CLE, OF, 21.10 – Valera might not join the top prospect brigade in the majors this year, but it probably won’t be too far into 2023 until he does. He drilled his 7th homer in 28 games since getting called up to Triple-A. He has a little Gary Sheffield bat wiggle, and that line drive homer is reminiscent of some of the frozen ropes Sheffield would hit. Valera isn’t as good as Sheffield, but his power and OBP profile is completely transferring to Triple-A.

Joey Wiemer MIL, OF, 23.7 – Wiemer got called up to Triple-A and became a new man. He went 2 for 4 with a dinger and is now slashing .275/.360/.533 with 6 homers, 6 steals, and a 20.9%/12.2% K%/BB%. What strikeout problems?

Adael Amador COL, SS, 19.7 – Amador laughs at strikeout problems as he’s maintained an elite plate approach all season (12.1%/15.7% K%/BB%), and he showed off the power yesterday jacking out his 15th homer in 115 games at Single-A. The power/speed combo may not be huge, but plenty of superstars have bubbled up from these elite plate approach guys even if they aren’t visually jaw dropping athletes.

Kevin Parada NYM, C, 21.11 – Parada got on the board with his first professional homer in 13 games. He’s walking a ton with a .463 OBP and 24.4% BB% at Single-A, but the 29.3% K% is on the high side.

Justyn-Henry Malloy ATL, 3B/OF, 22.7 – Malloy is getting some late season helium as he continued to handle his business since getting called up to Double-A. He cracked his 6th homer in 48 games at the level and is now slashing .291/.416/.459 with 6 homers, 0 steals and a 24.8%/17.3% K%/BB%. He always had very high walk rates throughout his career and he’s shaping up to a great low key target in OBP leagues this off-season.

Oswaldo Cabrera NYY, OF, 23.7 – Cabrera hit his first MLB homer with a 408 foot shot on a 1 for 4 day. He has a 86.7 MPH EV with a 28.8% whiff% and 27.3 ft/sec sprint speed in 88 MLB PA. I think he’s a heavily used utility player long term and isn’t really a target of mine.

Bubba Thompson TEX, OF, 24.3 – The 7th fastest man in baseball racked up 2 more steals to give him 13 steals in 33 games. He has a 2.8% barrel%, so his .298 BA is the result of good luck, but a 87.8 MPH EV and 29% whiff% isn’t hopeless. It’s not a bad MLB debut, and his elite base stealing ability is worth taking on the extra risk.

Brandon Pfaadt ARI, RHP, 23.10 – Pfaadt bounced back from his first bad start at Triple-A with a gem yesterday, going 8 IP with 4 hits, 2 ER, and a 11/0 K/BB. He threw a 5 pitch mix led by his high spin, 94.3 MPH fastball. His K/BB numbers have been elite all year and they barely dropped off at all at Triple-A with a 30.4%/6.3% K%/BB% in 50 IP.

Tanner Bibee CLE, RHP, 23.6 – The hard charging Bibee isn’t slowing down, going 6 IP with 3 hits, 1 ER, and a 5/2 K/BB at Double-A. He rose up all the way to #60 overall on the Updated Top 360 Prospects Rankings and I think his name value will remain subdued enough this off-season to get him at a very reasonable price.

Mitch Keller PIT, RHP, 26.5 – 7 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 6/3 K/BB vs. STL. Keller is doing just enough to close out the season to screw us all over again in 2023. He has a 2.51 ERA with a 49/19 K/BB in his last 61 IP. I’m not taking the bait though as the strikeout numbers just haven’t been impressive enough. Don’t get sucked back in.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON AND OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 360 SEPTEMBER 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 455 AUGUST 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS (one of my favorite things I’ve ever written)
-MID-SEASON OBP TOP 447 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS 
-MID-SEASON POINTS/6+CATS/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 430 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 40 2023 FYPD RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT: Team Prospect Lists, Positional Dynasty Rankings, and early access to the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Patreon Post: Top 360 September 2022 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings

Everyone who has a decent chance of maintaining prospect eligibility this off-season cracked the list. August through May Rankings are in parenthesis, in that order. Here is the Top 360 September 2022 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON AND OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 455 AUGUST 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS (one of my favorite things I’ve ever written)
-MID-SEASON OBP TOP 447 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS 
-MID-SEASON POINTS/6+CATS/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 430 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 40 2023 FYPD RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT: Team Prospect Lists, Positional Dynasty Rankings, and early access to the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

Tier 1

1) (1) (1) (2) (5) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.1 – Gunnar is winning the battle of the small sample MLB debuts. Gunnar wins in EV (89.3 MPH vs. 88.6 MPH), whiffs (22.9% vs. 30%) and launch (8.9 degrees vs. 0.5 degrees). The one area he doesn’t beat Corbin is speed, which is why I am hesitant to bump Gunnar over Carroll in a 5×5 BA league (30.4 ft/sec vs. 28.9 ft/sec). In leagues that devalue speed, Gunnar is the top dog.

2) (3) (2) (8) (12) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS, 21.2 – The impressive MLB debut, even in a small sample, would make it hard for me to trade Gunnar for Chourio at this point, especially if I was a contending team. A 28.9 ft/sec sprint also gives hope the stolen base numbers could somewhat transfer

3) (2) (8) (99) (158) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 18.5 – 7 homers in his last 14 games at High-A. I still might bet on Chourio being the best fantasy player on this list when it is all said and done, but proximity has to be taken into account.

4) (6) (7) (54) (92) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 20.7 – K% has slightly improved since getting the call to Double-A (29.4% vs. 30.7%). The fact his K% didn’t take a jump in the upper levels of the minors is a huge hurdle to clear

5) (4) (4) (16) (6) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 21.4 – If Volpe was on the Braves he would have been up for at least a month now, but he isn’t on the Braves, and he’ll have to settle for barely making it to Triple-A (184 wRC+ in 4 games at the level).

6) (5) (3) (9) (13) Jordan Walker STL, 3B, 20.4 – Consistently great at Double-A. I don’t think he slumped a single time all season

Tier 2

7) (7) (9) (43) (42) James Wood SDP, OF, 20.0 – Hasn’t been able to keep up the otherworldly plate approach since the trade to Washington (26.2%/9.5% K%/BB% in 19 games). As much as I’ve loved Wood all season, at 6’7”, I would be hesitant to expect a great BA in the majors.

8) (9) (10) (20) (38) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 20.3 – Lawlar is hitting a road bump at Double-A with a 33.3% K% and 16 wRC+ in 9 games

9) (8) (6) (18) (18) Zac Veen COL, OF, 20.8 – The upper minors is proving to be a problem with his GB% jumping to 56.7%, his stolen base success rate tanking (4 for 9), and his plate approach taking a small hit (26.3%/8.4% K%/BB%) in 22 games at Double-A. He’ll adjust, but would have preferred him to keep rolling

10) (11) (35) (59) (106) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 19.7 – The hype is about to hit all over again this off-season with what he’s doing at High-A (133 wRC+ with a 19.2% K% in 34 games)

11) (10) (FYPD-1) Druw Jones ARI, OF, 18.8 – Hurt his shoulder during BP and could be out for the year. I dropped Lawlar from the #1 slot in my first year player draft rankings last year after his shoulder injury, and I’m not making the same mistake with Jones

12) (33) (FYPD-2) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 18.8 – Called up to Single-A and has a 77 wRC+, but the plate approach remains impressive with a 21.1%/18.5% K%/BB% in 8 games. He has that perfect combo of a safe floor and big upside

13) (14) (12) (5) (2) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 22.10 – Returned from a lat strain with a 1.1 inning rehab appearance at High-A. Just seeing him get back on the mound is reassuring as we head into the off-season

14) (15) (11) (14) (21) Eury Perez MIA, RHP, 19.4 – Out with a “minor” shoulder injury but has recently resumed throwing

15) (35) (39) (49) (50) Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 19.5 – 1.40 ERA with a 31.9%/1.4% K%/BB% in 19.1 IP at Double-A. He’s BB% has actually dropped at every new level. This guy has checked every single box this year

Tier 3

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON AND OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 455 AUGUST 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS (one of my favorite things I’ve ever written)
-MID-SEASON OBP TOP 447 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS 
-MID-SEASON POINTS/6+CATS/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 430 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 40 2023 FYPD RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT: Team Prospect Lists, Positional Dynasty Rankings, and early access to the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)