April 2024 – Imaginary Brick Wall

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/1/24):

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Evan Carter TEX, OF, 21.7 – It’s 4 days into the season, there hasn’t even been a single game played in April yet, and if you’re anything like me, you’re ready to throw all of your off-season planning right out the window based on who did and didn’t hit a homer yet. I’m in 4th to last place in my 18 team league, franchise savior Evan Carter is 0 for 8, and now I’m questioning everything. In my 12 teamer and 30 teamer, I’m towards the top of the standings, and am already patting myself on the back for how much of a genius I am. So instead of pretending like I am some emotionless fantasy monk, telling you the reasonable thing, which is that it’s a long season, and that what happens in the first week is not a good indicator for what will happen the entire season, let’s lean into it and overreact. And also, lets see if any of this stuff will have staying power, or at least if we think it will.

Kerry Carpenter DET, OF, 26.7 – Carpenter was as underrated as a core, proven, young dynasty asset could get this off-season, and he’s off to hot start in 2024 after smoking an Erick Fedde hanger 393 feet for his first homer of the year. He tacked on another 102 MPH single on a 2 for 4 day. He’s now 4 for 9 with a double, homer and 0 K’s. He ranked 142nd overall in my Top 1,145 Dynasty Baseball Rankings, and I named him a Target in my positional target articles, writing, “Carpenter has a pretty rare, very hard to find profile that can usually only be found at the top of drafts, but he gets valued like a boring afterthought. He had a 10.2% Barrel%, 90.1/95.1 MPH AVG/FB EV, 13.1 degree launch, 28.1 ft/sec sprint, and 27% whiff%. I promise you, those are not easy numbers to find. And the surface stats fully back it up. Carpenter has a chance to be really really good. Like Top 75 dynasty asset good, and nobody seems to really care.” … people are going to start to care if he keeps this up. He currently has a 92.2 MPH EV with a 25.6 degree launch and a 12.5% whiff%. My verdict, he’s for real.

Maikel Garcia KCR, 3B, 24.1 – The Maikel Garcia coming out party is here, and if you’ve read my work since June of 2023, you are partying right along with him. He jacked out his 2nd homer in just 3 games, after hitting just 4 homers in 123 games last year. That is 50% of the homers in 2.4% of the games, if math is your thing. Or if math isn’t your thing, that is a 108 homer pace if stupid fun prorating is your thing (I lean towards the stupid fun prorating side myself). I already victory lapped him in the Opening Day Rundown over on the Patreon after he hit his first homer, but as long as he keeps hitting homers, I’ll keep going around the track. He’s always hit the ball hard, got the bat on the ball, and had speed. Now he’s lifting it with a 21.4 degree launch. His upside is not to be trifled with. Verdict: for real.

Jordan Beck COL, OF, 22.11 – Jordan Beck isn’t just knocking on the door of the bigs, he’s pounding on it like my freshman year RA after smelling weed coming from my room. He had another huge day at Triple-A, going 3 for 5 with a 104.4 MPH, 396 foot triple, a 103.9 MPH single, and a 102.9 MPH, 439 foot homer. That’s his 2nd homer in 3 games to give him a 1.550 OPS on the season. Colorado had Elehuris Montero, Michael Toglia, and Jake Cave in their staring lineup yesterday, falling to 1-3 on the season. Beck is a prime stash for all league sizes. Beck and Joey Loperfido are probably the biggest Triple-A hitting “risers” to start the season.

Carson Whisenhunt SFG, LHP, 23.6 – Whisenhunt got back on the mound for the first time since an elbow injury ended his season in late July, and he looked electric, going 3 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB at Triple-A. The fastball sat 94 MPH and put up a 42% whiff% on the pitch, while the elite changeup was silly dominant with a 100% whiff%. He just reminded everyone of why we were so excited for him before going down with the injury. If Back and Loperfido are the top hitting risers, Whisenhunt might be the top pitching riser. He’s worth a stash in all league sizes. He just has to stay healthy, which is easier said than done.

Juan Soto NYY, OF, 25.6 – I was smelling that monster, doesn’t even look like a real statline, career year for Soto. The Baseball Gods owed him that one for the shortened 2020 season where had a 202 wRC+, and it sure looks like it’s happening. He went 3 for 5 yesterday and is now 9 for 17 with 1 double, 1 homer and a 2/3 K/BB. The Yanks are going to have to pay this man one billion dollars to keep him. Or at least that is what Boras will ask for before dragging the negotiations into deep March, and then settling for a 1 year, $100 million deal.

Christopher Morel CHC, OF, 24.10 – It’s clear that Chicago wants Morel’s big bat in the middle of their lineup, whether it’s at 3B or DH, and Morel is doing everything he can to stay in that cleanup spot, jacking out his 1st homer at 107.4 MPH. He now has a 1.071 OPS in 3 games, and most importantly, he’s only struck out once in 14 PA. He had a 32.1% K% in 53 spring PA, so this one is probably more of a small sample thing than something sustainable, but if that swing and miss can just take a small step forward, it would make a big impact with how hard he hits the ball. Can’t say it’s for real quite yet, but it’s a good start.

Trey Lipscomb WAS, 3B, 23.9 – Nick Senzel went down with a fractured thumb fielding grounders, and Lipscomb swooped right in to take his job. He cracked his first MLB homer yesterday and is off to a hot start, going 3 for 8 with a homer and a steal. The underlying numbers aren’t super encouraging with a 85.9 MPH EV, 44.4% whiff% and negative 8 degree launch, so I wouldn’t go too crazy for him at all, but he’s certainly worth a pick up for his potential solid across the board production. As for Senzel, this is why I hid all injuries when I played baseball through high school. Looking back, my UCL was barking basically since 7th grade, and I didn’t tell a soul. You ain’t taking my job. Senzel’s out, Lipscomb is in, but my verdict is that it’s probably not for real.

CJ Abrams WAS, SS, 23.6 – Abrams on the other hand is 100% for real, and he might be ready to level up in 2024. He demolished a Nick Martinez curve 429 feet at 107.1 MPH for his first homer of the year. Naturally getting stronger is just about all he needs to do to explode, and so far he has a 90.7 MPH EV with a 14.3% Barrel% in 7 batted balls. He already lifts it, gets the bat on the ball, and has speed. Before EV took over the world, there was an adage for young players that power was the last thing to come. Now if you don’t have a 93 MPH EV as a 12 year old in little league you are looked over. The man muscles might be coming in for Abrams. He now has a 1.085 OPS with a homer and 3 steals. He’s for real.

Will Benson CIN, OF, 25.9 – EV has never been an issue for the 6’5”, 230 pound Benson, and he’s picking up from where he left off in the 2nd half of 2023, blasting a 411 foot homer to go along with a 103.3 MPH double and 100.8 MPH single. It’s the swing and miss that we have to watch, and unfortunately, that is still there with a 44% whiff% in 13 PA. He’s had big K rates his entire career, so that likely isn’t going anywhere, but when you have a 101.6 MPH EV, we’ll accept that. I was all over Benson pre-2023, and while he has his flaws, I’m buying the huge power/speed combo.

Garrett Whitlock BOS, RHP, 27.10 – 5 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 8/0 K/BB vs. SEA. The 19% whiff% wasn’t eye popping, but he induced weak contact with a 78.7 MPH EV against, and as usual, his control was on point. I’m a sucker for Whitlock every time he gets a shot in the rotation, and this year in no different. He’s not this good, but his plus control, above average whiff combo is enticing as long as he stays healthy. I’m in.

Bryce Miller SEA, RHP, 25.7 – 5 IP, 6 hits, 4 ER, 6/2 K/BB vs. BOS. Not the best outing, but I’m just here to check on the new splitter … 60% whiff%. The fastball was great too with a 37% whiff%. He’s going to explode, and if you can sneak in a reasonable trade for him based on this mediocre outing, I would be all over it.

Gavin Stone LAD, RHP, 25.6 – 5 IP, 7 hits, 3 ER, 6/1 K/BB vs. STL. The filthy changeup utterly dominated with a 41% usage, 68 MPH EV against, and 50% whiff%. That is just silly. The fastball was up (along with all of his pitches) 1.4 MPH to 95.4 MPH, and the cutter and curve performed well too. This was a very encouraging start, and it sure looks like Stone is ready to bounce back from his disaster 2023 season. Pitching development isn’t linear, and it just gets proven over and over again.

Brice Turang MIL, 2B/SS, 24.4 – Turang went 2 for 4 yesterday, and stole his league leading 4th bag. He went 26 for 30 with a 29.4 ft/sec sprint in 448 PA in 2023, and if he keeps running at this pace, he has all of the skills to be among the league leaders by the end of the season too. He’s off to a good start in general, going 6 for 11 with a 90.2 MPH EV. He’ll sit vs. most lefties, and Turang started last year hot too before cooling off, so I’m not going completely legit on this one. But there is category winning stolen base skills here.

Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 22.4 – I had Alvarez as the #2 overall dynasty catcher behind Adley, and I thought Adley had to watch his back as Alvarez was coming for the top spot. And Alvarez is taking his shot at the king early, having another good day at the dish, going 2 for 3 with a 109.9 MPH double. He’s now 5 for 10 with a double, homer and 100.2 MPH EV. Adley is off to a great start as well, but he doesn’t have the homer power than Alvarez has in the tank, and in fantasy, power is king. Honestly, it’s just great to see some elite level hitting from the catcher position. Brings me back to the days of Pudge Rodriguez and Mike Piazza.

Kyle Isbel KCR, OF, 27.1 – I love patting myself on the back for my targets hitting, but Isbel looks like a miss for me. I was targeting Waters to win that starting CF job, but it was the presumed favorite, Isbel, who took it, and he’s running with it. He ripped a 105.5 MPH homer that cleared the fence in about half a second off Bailey Ober. He’s now 3 for 9 on the season with a homer, 98.4 MPH EV and 11.1% K%. His EV was pretty strong last year too at 89.4 MPH, and he doesn’t have a problem lifting the ball. The defense is plus, the speed is above average, and he gets the bat on the ball. He does a lot of things well, and I just whiffed on him. He has the skills to make a fantasy impact, and if he’s still out there in your league, it’s time to grab him.

Bailey Ober MIN, RHP, 28.2 – Speaking of Ober, he had a straight disaster season debut, going 1.1 IP with 9 hits, 8 ER, and a 3/1 K/BB vs. KCR. Bottom line here is to not panic. Can’t dive too deep into this one. He’ll find his rhythm. Don’t drop him yet.

Luis Campusano SDP, C, 25.6 – Campusano was another non target for me, and while he’s off to a good start, I’m still not buying in quite yet. He went 3 for 5 with a 106 MPH single, 92.4 MPH single, and 96.4 MPH homer that he barely snuck over the fence going the opposite way. He’s now 9 for 23 on the season, but it comes with a lowly 81.1 MPH EV and I just don’t love the batting stance. I think he can be solid, but I’m still questioning the upside. Not a buy for me yet.

Erick Fedde CHW, RHP, 31.1 – Fedde’s first start back in the states after refining his game in Korea was pretty encouraging, going 4.2 IP with 5 hits, 2 ER, and a 7/1 K/BB vs. a solid Detroit lineup. Most importantly, the swing and miss was up with a 28% whiff% on the back of the new splitter, which notched a 50% whiff%. The sinker missed bats too with a 33% whiff%, and the cutter induced weak contact with a 66.4 MPH EV against. It wasn’t a perfect outing, and I don’t think we are talking about a top of the rotation explosion here, but he can certainly enter useful fantasy starter territory.

Jack Flaherty DET, RHP, 28.6 – Flaherty carried the spring success into the regular season, going 6 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 7/0 K/BB. Granted it was against Chicago’s weak lineup, but the stuff was still up across the board, and the slider was absolutely dominant with a 46% usage and 43% whiff%. He’s never thrown the slider that much, and that is another good sign that this isn’t the same Flaherty from the last few years. His bounce back looks real.

Brady Singer KC, RHP, 27.8 – 7 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 10/1 K/BB vs. MIN. We heard all off-season about Singer’s two new pitches, the 4-seamer and sweeper, so of course he didn’t throw either and dominated with the old sinker/slider combo in this one. The slider in particular wreaked havoc with a 62% whiff%. I’m not sure what to think of him completing scraping his off-season plan, and then dominating by going back to basics. I guess the only reasonable response is that this isn’t for real, and not to buy in too hard other than taking a flier. But hard not to get excited after such a killer outing.

Davis Schneider TOR, 2B, 25.2 – Schneider got his first start of the season, and he did what he does with a dinger, walk, and 2 K’s in 5 PA. He’s going to have to wait his turn behind Biggio, IKF, and maybe even Ernie Clement (who I like), but it sure seems like the low BA, high OBP slugging profile will play if he gets in the lineup. Be patient with him. He’ll get more playing time one way or the other, and I think he’s for real.

Tyler O’Neill BOS, OF, 28.10 – Like any self respecting cast off Cardinals OF, O’Neill got out of St. Louis and immediately got to raking. He smoked his 2nd homer in 13 PA off Bryce Miller, and now has a 1.538 OPS with 2 homers, 1 steal, a 92.1 MPH EV and 7.7%/23.1% K%/BB%. I cautioned against selling O’Neill too low in my Top 1,000 blurb for him, writing, “I would caution against selling O’Neill too low.” This is why. He looks healthy, and he has the talent to blow up all over again.

Esteury Ruiz OAK, OF, 25.2/Victor Scott STL, OF, 23.2 – The Ruiz vs. Scott debates remind me of those super heated debates in 5th grade over who the fastest kid in school was. Shoutout Aaron Mises (RIP). But in 5th grade, we didn’t have Statcast, and in fantasy, we aren’t only concerned with speed. Ruiz went 2 for 4 yesterday and jacked his first bag of the season. He’s 3 for 7 on the season. Scott went 2 for 3 with a double for his first 2 hits of the season and is now 2 for 14 with a steal. Ruiz is “crushing” the ball with a 86.6 MPH (82.7 MPH in 2023), while Scott is actually crushing the ball with a 92.2 MPH EV. It’s too early to say anything, and both have their own playing time issues, but it’s just a super fun one to follow.

Junior Caminero TBR, 3B/SS, 20.9 – It’s so frustrating when we can’t watch one of the best young players in the game on the biggest stage, so we’ll have to settle for watching Caminero’s insanely explosive swing crush homers in Triple-A. It was his first of the year and he’s obviously already destroying the level with a 170 wRC+ in 3 games. I guess Tampa is waiting for that extra year of service time. He should be up already, but it is what it is.

Coby Mayo BAL, 1B/3B, 22.4 – Speaking of elite power hitting youngsters who should be up already, Mayo decimated his first homer of the year as well, pulling a 421 foot, 111.3 MPH bomb. He now has a 162 wRC+ in 3 games. Baltimore at least has an excuse, because they are jam packed on the MLB level. This next guy made the roster, but can’t even get any run …

Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 24.0/Austin Hays BAL, OF, 28.9 – Pinch hitter Colton Cowser went 0 for 1 yesterday, and 1 for 1 with a double on Saturday. I’ve never really seen a team turn a legit top prospect into a pinch hitter to start their career, but who am I to question Baltimore? The man standing in Cowser’s way, Austin Hays, went 0 for 3 and now has a .490 OPS in 13 PA. Baltimore is only going to play around for so long, and at some point, the cream will rise to the top. Hays is going to have to start hitting real soon, and hitting real well, to keep that full time job. Cowser is coming for it.

Trey Sweeney LAD, SS, 23.11 – Gavin Lux shouldn’t get too comfortable (4 for 20 with a .400 OPS), because LA has a ready made middle infielder who is putting the pressure on at Triple-A. Sweeney unloaded for his first dinger at 105.2 MPH. LA has vets on the bench that can also take over for Lux, so it’s not like it’s purely Sweeney vs. Lux, but Sweeney is an underrated close to the majors bat to keep an eye on.

Juan Brito CLE, 2B/3B, 22.6 – The smooth swinging, switch hitting Brito went deep as a righty for his first homer at Triple-A. I know that Cleveland has like 900 guys with a similar profile, but don’t sleep on Brito. He hasn’t put up a wRC+ less than 125 at any level, and the swing is just so easy and clean. He might need injuries to hit, but he has the potential to be a rock solid hitter on the MLB level.

Mason Black SFG, RHP, 24.4/Cristian Mena ARI, RHP, 21.3 – Black and Mena both had strong outings at Triple-A. Black went 5 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER and a 5/0 K/BB. Mena went 5 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB. The problem is, neither really has the velocity to get overly excited about. Black sat 91.9 MPH while Mena sat 92.6 MPH. Velo isn’t everything, but I do think it limits their upside. Mena’s breaking balls dominated (slider, curve), and Black’s fastballs dominated (sinker, 4-seamer), so they can be successful without the huge velocity, there is just levels to this. Solid pitching prospects, but not great ones.

Rowdy Tellez PIT, 1B, 29.0 –– I promised you I wasn’t going to mention every Pirates win in the last Rundown, but I might have lied 😉 … or at least until they lose one. Tellez rocketed a 106.6 MPH 3 run homer to eventually propel Pitt to victory in the 10th. They are now tied for the best record in baseball at 4-0. I’ve gone full blown Pirates fan this year after touting them all off-season as a team that is going to surprise. In the 20 Dynasty Baseball Strategies/Thoughts for 2024 (#16), I warned you that “The Rise of the Pirates is definitely coming,” and it is here. Hope you got in on that over bet (and I put in a WS bet too).

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)