Today’s Rundown is more of buy/sell/price check based on early season returns rather than a traditional Rundown. Check out my Patreon for the 2021/22 Top 30 First Year Player Draft Rankings that I will be expanding on as we get closer to the draft, and I’m also working on a Dynasty Rankings update that should drop at the end of the month. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/19/21):
Yermin Mercedes CHW, C, 28.2 – Ripped his 4th homer and while his exit velocity doesn’t jump out at 87.7 MPH, he has an elite 12.8% whiff% and 10.5% Brls/PA%. Yermin is a “buy high” for me, meaning I would target him in a trade because nobody will expect you to give up your very best prospects and there is a good chance you can strike a very reasonable deal.
Jazz Chisholm MIA, SS, 23.2 – I was encouraged by Jazz’s 25.5% whiff% in 2020, shooting him up my rankings, and he is rewarding my faith in 2021 keeping it at a reasonable 30.7%. He’s also been absolutely crushing the ball with a 92.5 MPH exit velocity, and his speed is up a bit too with a 28.6 ft/sec sprint speed. I don’t have to tell you guys because he’s been the talk of the town, but this is a full on breakout.
Sean Murphy OAK, C, 26.6 – Cracked his 1st homer of the year and there will be more where that came from as he has a 93.3 MPH exit velocity and 17.4 degree launch angle. He is swinging and missing a ton with a 40% whiff%, but he is also walking a ton with a 15% BB%. In OBP leagues especially, Murphy is a buy.
Giancarlo Stanton NYY, OF, 31.5 – Blasted his 3rd homer yesterday. Stanton is still crushing the ball (95.1 MPH exit velo), but his 25.1 ft/sec sprint speed (27.1 in 2019) shows that he is declining athletically. If he can sustain this mini hot streak, it might not be a bad time to cash in and see what you can get for him.
Taylor Trammell SEA, OF, 23.6 – Trammell looks like the odd man out when Kelenic gets called up. He isn’t hitting the ball hard with an 82.4 MPH exit velocity and is striking out a ton (42.6% K%). His 27.4 ft/sec sprint isn’t bad, but it’s not great either.
Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 24.5 – There was talk he didn’t come into the 2020 season in shape, which is why his speed dropped off and he had a down year, but in 2021 his speed has dropped even more to a 25.2 ft/sec sprint speed (26.5 in 2020), and his whiff% remains high at 31.5%. He’s still demolishing the ball with a 94.2 MPH exit velocity, but the indicators we wanted to see improve haven’t at this point.
Michael Kopech CHW, RHP, 24.11 – Got the start and continued his domination with 3 IP, 1 hit, 1 ER, and a 4/1 K/BB. His fastball/slider combo has been lights out with a .220 xwOBA and 34% whiff% on the fastball, and a ridiculous .057 xwOBA with a 56.3% K% on the slider. This is a growth stock I’m buying even as the price continues to rise.
Christian Yelich MIL, OF, 29.4 – Whiff% remains at career high levels at 32.8%, making it hard to buy into a bounce back in that area. The launch angle gains he made in 2019 also do not look to be sticking as it dropped to 7.1 degrees in 2020 and 5.2 degrees this year. Considering his .333 BA right now, I would see if I could get a haul for him when he returns from the IL.
Trevor Story COL, SS, 28.4 – Surface stats are down with a .674 OPS, but underlying stats look great with a career high 91.8 MPH exit velocity and 19% K%. He’s a buy for me if you are in win now mode.
Charlie Blackmon COL, OF, 34.9 – Blackmon is another Rockie whose surface stats are down (.623 OPS), but underlying stats look much better with a career best 88.5 MPH exit velocity and 13.2% K%. His .350 xwOBA is right in line with career norms. He is a buy for a win now team.
Luis Robert CHW, OF, 23.8 – Whiff% down to 31.8% from 41.5% in 2020 which is huge to see. He’s also crushing the ball with a 91 MPH exit velocity. He won’t come cheap, but Robert is a major buy before his surface stats explode.
Yoan Moncada CHW, 3B, 25.10 – Not hitting the ball hard (85.3 MPH) and now has a below average 26.6 ft/sec sprint speed. Basically everything we wanted to see bounce back has gotten even worse. It is a concerning start, but you have to stay patient and hope he hits his stride at some point. Don’t sell for pennies on the dollar.
Carson Kelly ARI, C, 26.9 – Launched his 3rd homer of the season and his power surge is backed up by a 97.1 MPH FB/LD exit velocity. His .400 BA is not backed up by the underlying stats though with a career high 37.3% whiff% (26.8% in 2020).
Victor Robles WASH, OF, 23.10 – 1 for 2 with a walk. He is getting on base with a career high 12.2% BB%, but his 85.3 MPH exit velocity and career low 26.3 ft/sec sprint speed is not exactly screaming breakout season.
Akil Baddoo DET, OF, 22.7 – It hurts me to say it, but with a 85.8 MPH exit velocity, 46.3% whiff%, and 2.5% BB%, Baddoo is a sell high.
By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)