20 Dynasty Baseball Strategies/Thoughts for 2024 (A Collection from the 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Reports)

This post is a collection of strategies and thoughts from my 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Reports. Some were free and most were on the Patreon. I wanted to collect them in one easy to read post. Also make sure to check out my previous strategy articles if you haven’t read those already, linked to below. Here are my 20 Dynasty Baseball Strategies/Thoughts for 2024 (A Collection from the 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Reports):

Strategy Articles from Previous Years
11 Dynasty Baseball Rules to Live By from 2019
10 (More) Dynasty Baseball Rules to Live By from 2021
16 Dynasty Baseball Strategies/Thoughts for 2023 (A Collection from the 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Reports)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE & EARLY ACCESS CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-THE TOP 1,000 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS DROP NEXT WEEK!!! (TOP 350 ARE UP NOW)
-TOP 500 2024 PROSPECTS RANKINGS DROP NEXT WEEK!!! (TOP 146 ARE UP NOW)
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B–Top 161 SS-Top 316 OF-Top 321 SP
-TOP 131 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (+Target & Strategy Guide)
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (Full Positional Targets Articles coming soon)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST

1) Having a mind of your own is one of the most important attributes for a good dynasty owner. Every good dynasty owner I’ve ever played against has their own unique strategy and their own type of player they love going after. There is no edge in just following the crowd and taking the player you think you should take based on perceived value. And the crowd is wrong all the time, especially when it comes to prospecting. Predicting the future is impossible. I hope with my writing that I’m not only telling you which players to go after, but I’m also giving you my playbook and mindset in how I think about players and the game in general, so that you can incorporate that into your own unique strategy. Don’t be afraid to go out on a limb when your gut is telling you someone is getting massively underrated. Hitting on someone nobody else is in on is one of the most fun parts of the game.

2) Every dynasty owner wants that shooting star prospect who “came out of nowhere,” but I would be careful about building your system with 100% of these players. Miguel Bleis is the dark side of that strategy, and before you know it, you could have an entire farm system full of nearly worthless prospects who showed glimpses in the DSL or rookie ball a few years ago (not to say I’m giving up on Bleis at all), while your competition rosters and graduates the Matt McLain’s and Spencer Steer’s of the world. Of course you want a nice percentage of pure young upside, but make sure you are dipping into other buckets of prospects as well to diversify your risk. And you don’t have to always forgo upside to do it with the Blake Dunn’s of the world available for reasonable prices (I’m not intentionally only naming Cincinnati players, hah).

3) MLB changes the baseball every damn year, and I’m not even 100% sure they are truly in complete control of every change, as my understanding is that they manufacture new balls for every season. The juicier 2023 ball allowed mediocre exit velocity bats to come alive and be impact MLB hitters, but those type of hitters hold more risk coming into 2024 because we can’t be sure how the ball will play until we actually see it. The 2022 ball killed those guys. Big EV hitters are much more ball proof than low EV hitters. Everybody seemed to love the way the game was played in 2023, fans and baseball executives alike, so I don’t see why they would intentionally change the juiciness of the ball (I know they have experimented with tackier balls too, which is an entirely other discussion), but I’m not sure how it can’t be in the back of our minds while valuing players for next season.

4) I know I talk about going with your gut and thinking with a mind of your own a lot, but trade value has to be at least a consideration, and possibly a major consideration depending on your contention cycle, when drafting prospects. Prospects should be looked at as trade chips just as much, if not more, than they should be looked at as future core pieces of your team. If you draft a farm system of only underrated prospects that your league mates may have barely even heard of, you will have absolutely no leverage in trade talks for win now players. Trying to convince a trading partner of why mainstream lists are flawed, and that this guy who nobody is taking about is actually the better prospect is a fool’s errand. So especially as a contending team, even if you are lower on say Colson Montgomery than his perceived value, you may still want to pick him over a prospect you like a little better, because his hype will bring you back a much better return than your favorite underrated prospect. And there is always a chance that underrated prospect makes it back to you with the next pick, maximizing the value you come out of the draft with.

5) Landon Sims is a good reminder to pick your spots when going after pitchers coming off Tommy John surgery. Gunnar Hoglund is another good reminder. Both came back with diminished stuff and poor results. It’s why I generally like to stick with taking the discount on already established MLB pitchers or truly elite prospect pitchers (I liked Sims and Hoglund, so I also got sucked in a bit). When you start to wade in the waters of good, but not elite prospects who are obviously still unproven, it adds a lot of risk onto an already very risky profile. Not only do they need to come back completely healthy, they also need to still prove they can be legitimate impact starters not only in pro ball, but down the line in the majors. And it’s not like there isn’t a long line of busted pitching prospects due to elbow injuries. I’m still not counting Sims and Hoglund out. It might just be taking them a bit longer to get back to full health, but if you do take the discount on pitchers in that range, make sure it is a very real, deep discount.

6) Development isn’t linear, and that goes tenfold for pitchers, but it can be hard to figure out how to apply that knowledge in practice, rather than just in theory. So I appreciate DL Hall making it really easy on us. Just as his dynasty value and ranking on prospect lists have fallen off a cliff to levels lower than it’s ever been, is when his target status has never been juicier for me. The velocity dipped in the first half of the season, he hasn’t been able to meaningfully improve his control in 6 years, and the bullpen is calling his name, so people are starting to give up. But his velocity bounced back in the 2nd half and he had a legitimate reason for the 1st half dip. He showed glimpses of improved control for the first time in his career, and he showed the potential for dominant performance on the MLB level. And of course, the filthy stuff that made him so hyped earlier in his career is still there with an elite mid 90’s fastball and 2 potentially plus secondaries in his changeup and slider. I’ve never been higher and more excited about him, and his value has never been lower. Baltimore announced they still view him as a starter long term, so even if he likely starts the year in the pen, stay patient.

7) One of the biggest mistakes I make in fantasy is feeling scorned by a player who I bet on breaking out that didn’t end up breaking out, and then writing them off for the next season. “Hell hath no fury like a fantasy owner scorned.” But if all of the same reasons are still there that made you like that player in the first place, don’t let your emotions get in the way, go right back to that well the next year. My biggest regret was doing this with Jose Ramirez. I grabbed him for cheap in 2015, he didn’t breakout, and then I didn’t go after him in 2016 when he began his ascent. Of course, you don’t want to go to the other extreme which is never giving up on a player and letting him disappoint you over and over again. You have to know when to move on. But as long as the same reasons are present to love a player that were there the prior season, giving them one more chance is the right move, and you might be able to get them even cheaper the next year.

8) Houston is the home of the underrated prospect, which combined with their great developmental reputation, makes them the gift that keeps on giving. Yainer Diaz was the latest victim. Shit, even Yordan Alvarez got way underrated back in 2019 with him sliding completely off some mainstream Top 100 lists. I was the high guy on him by a comfortable margin at 25, for the record. Now Melton and Matthews sit atop the Astros list with so much upside, and so little relative hype. I’m going to keep going to the Houston well.

9) I talked about it on a Mailbag Podcast during the season, but the reason I don’t write a ton of Sell articles, is because it’s not really how I play the game. I rarely (but not never) target a player on my own team to sell who I think is overrated. There is a reason I acquired that player in the first place, so if they broke out and are playing well, my first instinct isn’t to immediately try and trade them. I’m looking at that player as a potential core piece of my team. Trades usually come together by me targeting players on someone else’s team, and then seeing where we match up and who they like on my team. Or if I have a surplus at a certain position, I will put everyone at that position on the block to maximize my chances of matching up with another team and finding a fair deal. The exception to this is taking over an orphan team where you didn’t acquire the players. Then I will 100% identify players who I was never the high guy on and think their perceived value will never be higher.

10) I don’t think there is a single bucket of prospect that the Angels have shown any proficiency in developing … well, except maybe the Hall of Famer bucket. Even the Angels couldn’t F up Mike Trout. It took them 7 years to develop Taylor Ward who was the 26th overall pick in 2015 and an advanced college bat. What an average organization can do in 3 years, the Angels will over double that. They seem to have almost entirely quit on the idea of “development” all together, just picking ready made prospects and rushing them to the majors (Neto, Schanuel, Joyce, Silseth). Do you like high risk, high reward prospects with plus power/speed combos and hit tool issues? The Angels love these prospects too, and they have a prospect graveyard full of them to prove it (Adell, Jordyn Adams, Alexander Ramirez, Werner Blakely, and Kyren Paris is up next). International prospects? Crickets. Pitching? Stagnant/non existent development across all levels. O’Hoppe, Neto, Canning, and Silseth (to a lesser extent) are all still targets for me, but the only thing I can hang my hat on, is that the Angels have been so horrific with developing players of late there has to be some kind of positive regression coming, right? They can’t actually be this bad. It has to even out at some point.

11) Opportunity is a major factor in success. I always think about how many players could have been successful major leaguers if they were given a legit opportunity and had the leash to make adjustments. As much as we want to fall in love with every poor defensive masher, or lightening fast utility type player, we have to account for the fact those types may very well never really get the opportunity to reach their full potential. There are only so many jobs available in major league baseball, and the vets who are on million dollar deals, or the high draft picks, or the high signing bonus players will get the priority over our favorite underrated prospects. Having said that, I’m going to ignore everything I just said and still go after the defensively limited Mark Vientos this off-season. It’s easier to give advice than to take it 😉

12) Erick Fedde went to Korea and absolutely dominated with a pitching line of 2.00/0.95/209/35 in 180.1 IP. He was named MVP. Whenever players leave for foreign leagues and dominant, it always adds some unknown intrigue that immediately makes them more interesting for fantasy. He didn’t add velocity, but he made tweaks to his slider and changeup. It’s always better to take a shot on unknown upside than known mediocrity when it comes to the last few rounds of the draft/$1 players in auctions, so he’s worth the last spot on your roster even in a shallower league.

13) It’s not easy knowing when to sell an established veteran and when to let it ride. It’s like buying stocks. Getting in is the easy part. It’s the knowing when to sell that is the hard part. You can take the Bill Belichick approach of thinking it’s better to get out a year too early than a year too late, but “a year too early” can often end up being like 5 years too early if you aren’t careful. Baseball isn’t the NFL. On the flip side, dealing older vets for unproven, potential young studs can often look fair at the time the trade is made, but look like the dumbest trade ever just a couple years later when the vet starts declining and the young stud becomes a consensus Top 10 dynasty asset. I have no hard and set advice here. It’s a case by case basis depending on your team and the player. I just find it an interesting discussion, and a large part of what makes dynasty such a fun/strategic game.

14) The Toronto Blue Jays system is perfect to use as a reminder that no dynasty rankings are meant to be taken as gospel. The beauty of dynasty is that there are so many factors and strategies to take into account for both your specific league and your specific team. Toronto has a lot of fringy proximity plays who would be much more attractive in deeper leagues. In a shallower league, it isn’t a good use of roster/prospect spots to hold a low-ish upside player who isn’t guaranteed playing time. It’s not necessarily because they can’t provide good value at peak, it’s because of how much easier it is to acquire a vet who is already putting up similar numbers to their projected peak. You need to be targeting players who have the potential to turn into beasts that aren’t easy to acquire, or are impossible to acquire. In a deeper league with little on the waiver wire, these type of proximity plays at least have the potential to make a real impact.

15) I always caution against changing your opinion too much on a hitter because they put up big stats in the extreme hitter’s environment of the AFL, but there were actually more than a few AFL standouts in 2022 who had big breakouts in 2023. Edouard Julien led the league amongst qualified hitters with a 1.249 OPS, and he just put up a 136 wRC+ in the majors this year. Heston Kjerstad’s 1.007 OPS was 6th best and he exploded up rankings in 2023. Colt Keith’s 1.004 OPS was 7th best and he also exploded up rankings. I never want to be too closed minded to change my mind when evidence is presented that I might be too rigid in a certain stance or strategy. While I’m not all of a sudden going too crazy for every AFL standout, I am willing to start putting more weight on the breakouts, and I’m going to start by ranking Jakob Marsee much higher than I did during the regular season. I slept on him too much in my in-season rankings this year.

16) The Rise of the Pirates is definitely coming, and while 2025 might be a better bet for them to really start popping, good rebuilds tend to come together a year earlier than expected. I’ve talked about it in my Mailbag Podcasts, but I’ve been absolutely lights out with MLB win total over/unders these past two years. I wrote/tweeted about my bets on the Orioles and Rangers last off-season, and I did the same for my Twins bet the off-season before that. I think “Vegas” underrates the bubbling minor league systems of up and coming teams, and I’m already salivating over where they are going to set the Pirates and Reds win totals this off-season (spoiler alert, they set them very low at 72.5 for Pitt and 80 for Cincinnati, but both lines have risen since then). Pitt has so much young hitting talent already on the MLB level, and they have more than a few really good arms ready to make their debuts in 2024. I think they could be a team to surprise. The Reds are loaded with talent, they have great depth, and their pitching will get underrated with possible breakouts from Greene, Lodolo, and Abbott. Arms like Phillips, Richardson, Petty and Lowder are all knocking on the door as well. This is a team ready to explode.

17) The Tampa Bay Rays must subscribe to my Patreon, because I named Ryan Pepiot a Top 10 Early Off-Season Dynasty Baseball Target back on September 26th, and the Rays went out and got him for Tyler Glasnow. The Rays are an organization that almost has to trade their studs when they are in the last year of team control, especially an injury prone pitcher, but targeting Pepiot tells you everything you need to know about him. Like me, they think he can be a legitimate impact starter. This trade likely raises his profile too high to still get great value on him, but I also like targeting him at his fair value.

18) Valera and DeLauter both got late starts to the season, and both started blowing up in the 2nd half (and into the AFL with DeLauter). Out of sight, out of mind, and putting more emphasis on the 1st half than the 2nd half are two negative tenets of the prospect world that you have to actively fight against. And if you can do it successfully, you will sweep up on great value that doesn’t get ranked correctly on prospect lists. Delauter is a near elite prospect who will probably get valued as more of a good one, and Valera is a good prospect who will probably get valued as more of a mediocre one. I’m taking the discounts on each.

19) This is a thought brought on by a question from a Patreon subscriber. When drafting in the 1st round of first year player drafts, and definitely when drafting at the top of the first round, you really shouldn’t be taking team needs into account. Those high picks are the ones you hope turn into such undeniable players that they will rise above whatever organizational surplus you have at that position. They could also be used as elite trade chips, or you can trade from the surplus you already have on your team, so it isn’t even a guarantee you will have a problem down the line. As you get deeper into the draft, that is when you can take team needs more into account pertaining to proximity/upside, pitcher/hitter etc … But I would caution against passing on say Wyatt Langford for Yoshinobu Yamamoto no matter how much you think Yamamoto fits your team more.

20) I find it fitting to close this 2024 Collection out with what I wrote the day after Thanksgiving in the Detroit Tigers Team Report: “There is no Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day today. I just wanted to use this space to say how thankful I am for each and every one of you. It’s a seriously amazing community we’ve built here, and it continues to light a fire in my stomach to produce the best dynasty content I can. Let’s kick some ass and get those championship banners hung in the rafters for 2024! Or if you’re rebuilding, let’s uncover those next elite dynasty assets before they explode!”

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE & EARLY ACCESS CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-THE TOP 1,000 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS DROP NEXT WEEK!!! (TOP 350 ARE UP NOW)
-THE TOP 500 2024 PROSPECTS RANKINGS DROP NEXT WEEK!!! (TOP 146 ARE UP NOW)
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B–Top 161 SS-Top 316 OF-Top 321 SP
-TOP 131 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (+Target & Strategy Guide)
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (Full Positional Targets Articles coming soon)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

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