When updating Dynasty Rankings this early into the season, you have 2 options only, and that is to overreact or to underreact. There is no middle ground. Either you buy in too much to a hot start that ends up being a mirage, or you don’t buy in enough and leave the best 2024 breakouts under ranked. I’ll try my best to thread the needle, and to separate the wheat from the chaff, but whenever dealing with small samples like this, that is just the game. Regardless, tough decisions have to be made at all points of the season with trades constantly being lobbed at us, and waiver wires being run. I’m going over 400 deep on the Patreon. Top 19 are free here on the Brick Wall. Blurbs for every player. A spreadsheet is also available. Here is the April 2024 Top 427 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:
CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-DYNASTY RUNDOWNS AND MONTHLY DYNASTY & PROSPECTS RANKINGS UPDATES
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (4/3/24)
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-SPREADSHEETS
*Off-season rankings are in parenthesis
1) (1) Ronald Acuna Jr. – ATL, OF, 26.3 – I’m not ready to unseat Acuna from the top spot on April 15th. You can pick apart the underlying numbers, but with a player like Acuna, doing that a few weeks into the season is silly. Maybe the knee is bothering him, but he has 7 steals, so it can’t be bothering him that much. We’ll re-asses next month if he’s still struggling, but for now, he remains the top dog.
2) (2) Bobby Witt Jr. – KCR, SS, 23.10 – I ranked Witt 2nd overall on the Top 1,000 and closed out his blurb by writing, “There is another level to unlock here. His .904 2nd half OPS is probably what he has in store for us in 2024.” … I was way off, he’s actually been much better than that with a 1.086 OPS and all of the underlying numbers to match, namely a 97.6 MPH EV. If anyone was going to take the top spot from Acuna, it would be Witt, but I’m not there yet.
3) (6) Fernando Tatis Jr. – SDP, OF, 25.3 – With a normal off-season, Tatis is back to his elite self with a .398 xwOBA, and his contact rates have been better than ever with a 14.3% K%. Maybe he got fully healthy coming off all of the surgeries, or maybe he’s back on the juice, but regardless, he’s back (I’m just half joking, I’m betting that he is just fully healthy)
4) (5) Shohei “(deferred) Money” Ohtani – LAD, RHP/DH, 29.9 – It seems Ohtani has officially been absolved of any wrongdoing in the gambling scandal, and whether there is more to this story or not, Ohtani seems safe. The elbow injury also hasn’t impacted his hitting at all with a 1.048 OPS in 18 games.
5) (3) Corbin Carroll – ARI, OF, 23.7 – I’ve been seeing a lot of sell low panic with Carroll, but with an elite player like Carroll, I would refuse to sell low under any circumstances. I would rather go down with the ship.
6) (4) Julio Rodriguez – SEA, OF, 23.3 – I saw this slow start coming from a mile away, starting Julio’s Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “When Julio gets off to a slow start in 2024, remind yourself not to panic. 2023 was the 2nd year in a row where it took him a minute to hit his stride.” The guy is quite clearly a slow starter. He will get hot eventually, like he has the past two seasons.
7) (7) Juan Soto – NYY, OF, 25.6 – Soto is in the midst of that career year (1.009 OPS) that will land him that 1 Billi contract and put some respect back on Scott Boras’ name. 95.2 MPH EV and 13% K% are both at career best levels too
8) (8) Kyle Tucker – HOU, OF, 27.2 – The quiet killer is back at it with a .460 xwOBA that is 10th best in the league. It’s kinda amazing how great Tucker is and how nobody really gives a crap
9) (9) Elly De La Cruz – CIN, SS/3B, 22.3 – I coined myself the Autobahn of Dynasty Baseball Schools, and I lived up to that billing ranking Elly 9th overall this off-season. He’s currently #6 overall on the Razzball Player Rater. I was too low. Sure he’ll strikeout out about 30% of the time, but the other 70% of the time he will do superhuman shit
10) (10) Yordan Alvarez – HOU, OF, 26.9 – .525 xwOBA leads the league. In leagues that devalue steals, he has an argument to be #1
Shadow10) (13) Shohei Ohtani – LAD, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.9 – This is where I would rank Ohtani in weekly leagues or as a hitter only
11) (12) Aaron Judge – NYY, OF, 31.11 – Only Judge could have a 94.2 MPH EV and it be the 2nd lowest mark of his career
12) (14) Mookie Betts – LAD, 2B/OF, 31.6 – Mookie is having a late career power surge like it’s the steroid era all over again. 6 homers in 18 games puts him on pace to break his career high for the 3rd year in a row
13) (28) Gunnar Henderson – BAL, SS/3B, 22.9 – Launch is up to 15.2 degrees, whiff% is down to 23.9%, and he’s running more with 4 steals. The only thing he hasn’t improved that he needed to improve is a .596 OPS vs. lefties. But improving in 3 of the 4 areas he needed to show improvement in is good enough for me to move him into near elite dynasty asset territory
14) (16) Michael Harris – ATL, OF, 23.1 – He’s not going full explosion yet, but he’s hitting the ball harder than ever with a 91.8 MPH EV, 114.4 MPH Max EV and 53.5% Hard Hit%. All are career highs. 4.2 degree launch needs to rise to truly explode, but even as is, he’s near elite.
15) (46) CJ Abrams – WAS, SS, 23.6 – Abrams is going full power explosion with a 91.7 MPH EV and 3 homers in 12 games. It’s too early to say the power explosion is 100% legit, but even a small leveling up would go a long way. There are not many guys I would trade Abrams for at this point, and if he comes back down to earth, we are still talking about a really good player
16) (43) Anthony Volpe – NYY, SS, 22.11 – Tony Low Launch matured like 10 years in a single off-season. He’s hitting the ball harder with a 91.1 MPH EV and the plate approach is insanely improved with a 13.6%/15.2% K%/BB%. He’s also still running a ton with 5 steals. He ranks 13th overall on the Razzball Player Rater. I named him a target this off-season, and I’m definitely buying in. This was an elite prospect who is leveling up in year 2
17) (13) Bryce Harper – PHI, 1B, 31.6 – Harper had a back issue pop up in spring and he’s struggled in both spring and to start the year. He’s also been unlucky though (.287 wOBA vs. .331 xwOBA) and he’s still crushing the ball with with a 91.1 MPH EV. You gotta stay patient with vets like Harper
18) (15) Jose Ramirez – CLE, 3B, 31.6 – .692 OPS and the underlying numbers are even worse than that with a .258 xwOBA, but like Harper, you can’t panic with vets like this at this point in the season
19) (17) Trea Turner – PHI, SS, 30.9 – 30.4 ft/sec sprint speed. Turner has yet to lose even a half step of speed. The decline ain’t coming this year
CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-DYNASTY RUNDOWNS AND MONTHLY DYNASTY & PROSPECTS RANKINGS UPDATES
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (4/3/24)
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-SPREADSHEETS
By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)