Posted on by Michael Halpern

Reviewing My 2016 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty League Prospect Sleepers Post

Now is as good a time as any to review my 2016 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty League Prospect Sleepers post from last off-season. Let’s get right to the meat of this thing (in order of where they ranked on the original post):

Intro) Trevor Story COL, SS – By the time I collected all of my favorite sleepers into one post, Story was no longer a sleeper. He was dominating Spring Training and exploding up fantasy baseball draft boards. But when I ranked him 30th overall on my off-season top 100 in early February, he was barely getting any love at all in the prospect world, going completely unranked on Baseball America, MLB.com, and Baseball Prospectus’ Top 100’s. Story went on to dominate the majors until a thumb injury ended his season, and he currently stands as my best prospect sleeper pick.

1) Bobby Bradley CLE, 1B – Dropped from 18th on my off-season list, to 28th on my End of Season Top 35, but basically maintained in High-A this season what made me love him so much in 2015. Double-A will be the first real barometer on how this call is going to play out.

2) Derek Fisher HOU, OF – Double-A and Triple-A pitching wasn’t any more of a challenge to Fisher than A-Ball pitching was. He started showing up in the back of some mainstream mid-season prospect lists, and his value certainly took a jump this season. While the ultimate test will be how he handles MLB pitching, he was already cashed in as a trade chip in two of my dynasty leagues from owners who bought on the cheap last off-season.

3) Josh Hader MIL, LHP – From unranked on Baseball America’s off-season top 100, to top 25 on their mid-season list. I don’t mean to keep harping on mainstream lists, but so much of a prospects objective value in fantasy leagues is determined by where they rank on these lists. In one dynasty league, owners were trying to pry Hader (7 years of team control) from me all season as a centerpiece in deals for guys like Max Scherzer and Todd Frazier (expiring contracts).

4) Tom Murphy COL, C – Graduated from a dynasty league sleeper last off-season, to a redraft league sleeper this off-season. If you like to wait on catcher, which you should, Murphy is a prime late round target.

5) Alen Hanson PIT, 2B/UTIL – We come to my first miss. Not only did Hanson get no at-bats while Jung-ho Kang was out early in the year, like I thought he would, but he showed no improvement repeating Triple-A this season either. It also looks like he is headed for a utility role early in his career, which can be annoying in fantasy leagues where he will have to take up a roster spot. I still like Hanson and would hold if I owned him, but his value is undeniably lower than where it was last year.

6) Willie Calhoun LAD, 2B – Was named MVP of the Arizona Fall Stars Game. Just watch the videos in that link of his perfect day at the plate to see why I’ve been hyping him for about a year now.

7) Harrison Bader STL, OF – Bader impressed at the Fall Stars Game too, smacking a double to the wall in his first at-bat, and tacked on another well hit single his next time up. Like Calhoun, he showed up on the back of some mid-season top 100 lists, and I was able to use him in a trade (plus a lot more) that netted me 4 cheap years of Yu Darvish.

8) Jacob Faria TB, RHP – Performance slightly declined across the board at Triple-A this year. Homer and walk rates were up while strikeouts were down. I don’t think his value is significantly different from where it was last year, but considering he will be going at it in the AL East, I’m concerned I was a bit too high on him in the first place.

9) Jack Flaherty STL, RHP – Value remains basically identical to last off-season. Hasn’t added the extra velocity that many projected when he was a “projectable” high school starter, but there is plenty of time for that to still come. Like Bradley, what he does at Double-A next year will be telling.

10) Justus Sheffield NYY, LHP – Will be leaving the comfy confines of Progressive Field and the AL Central for Yankee Stadium and the AL East. Everything else is more or less the same as last off-season, but he is a bit higher profile now that he was involved in that blockbuster trade for Andrew Miller. Clint Frazier and Sheffield probably won’t have any added pressure on them to perform, none at all.

11) Tyler O’Neill SEA, OF – I’ve been patting myself on the back for being so high on O’Neill last off-season, but it turns out I was still too low. He significantly improved both his hit tool and plate approach this year at Double-A, and has been equally impressive in the Arizona Fall League. After being unranked everywhere in the off-season, he was all over traditional mid-season lists.

12) Austin Byler ARI, 1B – My bad. At least he was ranked last on this list 😉

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Travis Demeritte, 2016 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Breakout

Travis Demeritte is the Minor League version of Trevor Story. Like Story, he has been red hot to start the season, triple-slashing .435/.481/1.304, with 5 homers, and 2 steals in his first 6 games at High-A. Like Story, he absolutely crushes the ball when he makes contact, but has a history of struggling to make contact in the first place. And most importantly, like Story, he has a last name that is low hanging fruit for people that like to make corny puns. Don’t worry, I’ll spare you … this time. So why isn’t everyone hyping Demeritte to death like they are Story? Well, probably because nobody plays in a MiLB Fantasy League. But we do play in Dynasty Leagues, and now is the time to jump on the Demeritte bandwagon.

The Texas Rangers selected Demeritte, 2B, out of high school with the 30th overall pick in the 2013 draft. He showed his considerable talent right off the bat, putting up an .856 OPS, with 4 homers, and 5 steals in 39 Rookie ball games. It also came with a 28% K%. He then cranked up the power and strikeouts even more in 2014 at Single-A, jacking 25 homers with a 36.7% K%. Even with his considerable strikeout issues, the power surge made Demeritte an interesting sleeper candidate going into 2015. It turned out he would have bigger problems than strikeouts to deal with.

After displaying that same power/strikeout profile in the first 48 games of 2015, Demeritte got popped for taking the banned substance furosemide, a known masking agent for other drugs, and was suspended for 80 games. Coming into 2016, it was fair to wonder how much of that power was natural, and how much was drug induced. But as you know from my opener, we don’t have to wonder anymore, as the power is very real (or he found a better masking agent). He is still striking out 29.6% of the time, but if Story has taught us anything, it is that players with strikeout issues can succeed if they smack the crap outta the ball when they do make contact, and Demeritte does just that.

I give myself 3 demerits for not being higher on Demeritte this preseason (sorry, I couldn’t resist!), but any questions I had coming into this year have been answered. He is a boom or bust power hitting middle infielder with opportunistic speed. If you don’t mind some strikeout risk with your prospects, Demeritte is certainly one to jump on before word of his scorching start gets out.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Trevor Story and Spring Training Exploits

Trevor Story is the 30th ranked prospect in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post that I wrote in early February. I’m higher on him than most. In fact, I think I’m higher on him than any other prospect list I have read. But if you didn’t acquire Story at good value back in February, it is probably too late, as he has absolutely destroyed spring training pitching to the tune of, .378/.451/.911, with 6 homers in 51 PA. It seems like everyone has boarded the hype train. But it brings up the question, should his spring training stats matter?

In the sense that it has won him the starting SS job in Colorado, at least until/if Jose Reyes returns, his spring stats clearly matter. And for people that were either completely unaware of Story, or very down on his potential, then yeah, his monster spring stats should certainly put him on your radar. But for those of us who already knew and believed in the 20/20 upside, should his fantastic spring boost his stock even more? In other words, should we consider him a top 12 SS option for this season? After digging through some minor league stats from past years, the conclusion I came to is that I’m not so sure it should matter at all.

It didn’t take much searching before I found a good comparable, Mike Zunino. Just last spring, Zunino triple-slashed, .353/.431/.882, and jacked 7 homers in 58 spring training PA. Maybe this was a sign that the talented young hitter would finally break out? Nope. He followed that up with a regular season line of .174/.230/.300. The spring stats meant nothing. Similar to Story, Zunino was a young hitter with real strikeout issues. It isn’t a perfect comp, as Zunino can’t draw walks quite as well as Story, and had a history of struggling in the big leagues already. But what it does say to me, is that even an extreme case of spring training success will not guarantee a safe floor, let alone it being a harbinger for great success in the regular season.

There are many more examples. Well regarded hitting prospect Brandon Drury triple-slashed, .435/.533/.957, with 3 homers in 30 spring training PA last year. He then went on to put up a .756 OPS, with 5 total homers in 567 minor league PA split between Double-A and Triple-A, before hitting .214/.254/.375 in his MLB cup of coffee last September. Is he still considered a good hitting prospect? Yes. But were those spring training stats a good indicator for what he might do in his first taste of the majors? No.

We all know the old adage that spring training stats don’t matter, but it doesn’t stop us from getting drawn in year after year. I needed to dig into past spring training stats to remind myself of that. Pitchers are working on specific things and have no interest in making adjustments to what the hitter is doing. If Trevor Story wasn’t on your radar before, consider this his coming out party, but if he was, his hot spring training shouldn’t mean much to you. He is a talented fantasy prospect (top 30 in my book) who can surely surprise right out of the gate, but the more likely scenario is that there will be some bumps along the way. Add in the uncertainly surrounding Jose Reyes’ situation, and I don’t think Story has a great chance of cracking the top 12 this season. For 2016, I will give him a projection of 55/13/51/.250/8. For dynasty leagues, the strong spring only reinforces my high hopes for Story, and I will stick with my prime projection of 79/20/83/.258/14.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 20 Shortstops

The shortstop position got a much needed talent infusion last season. If you squint hard enough, you can envision the next coming of the ARod/Jeter/Nomar/Tejada era.

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Catcher/First Base/Second Base/Third Base/Outfield(Top 25)/(Top 50)/(Top 75)/Starters(Top 25)/(Top 50)/(Top 75)/(Top 100)/Closer/Top 250 Overall

1) Carlos Correa HOU – The dawn of the new power hitting SS era begins with Correa, and not a moment too soon, as SS production was getting brutal to watch. 2016 Projection: 88/28/96/.283/21

2) Manny Machado BAL – Every bit the phenom Correa is. 7 games played at SS in 2015. 2016 Projection: 94/31/89/.281/15

3) Troy Tulowitzki TOR – A move away from Coors, advancing age, and a cracked shoulder blade in 2015 are all good reasons to stay away from Tulo. On the flip side, he will be hitting in the middle of a loaded Toronto lineup, and the Rogers Center is a good hitter’s ballpark as well. 2016 Projection: 81/23/90/.283/3

4) Xander Bogaerts BOS – Expect more power and less AVG this season. 2016 Projection: 84/14/80/.293/8

5) Corey Seager LAD – The #1 ranked prospect in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post. Players seem to be hitting their primes earlier and earlier these days, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Seager hits the ground running in his official rookie season. 2016 Projection: 82/19/82/.277/7

6) Francisco Lindor CLE – Doesn’t have the offensive upside of the players ranked above him, but he is no slouch. Hit .313, with 12 homers, and 12 steals in 99 MLB games last season. 2016 Projection: 82/14/68/.274/18

7) Ian Desmond TEX – Signed with Texas to be their starting LF. Presents an enticing power/speed combo. 2016 Projection: 71/21/77/.261/12

8) Jung-ho Kang PIT – Wrote a Jung-ho Kang, 2016 Fantasy Sleeper post. 2016 Projection: 70/20/70/.284/4

9) Addison Russell CHI-NL – Wrote about Russell in my 2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 20 Second Basemen post. 2016 Projection: 72/18/72/.268/10

10) Starlin Castro NYY – Wrote about Castro in my 2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 20 Second Basemen post. 2016 Projection: 74/14/71/.283/7

11) Elvis Andrus TEX – I don’t see a late breakout coming, but still think he can be useful in fantasy. 2016 Projection: 71/8/66/.271/24

12) Marcus Semien OAK – Underrated power/speed combo. A breakout is possible. 2016 Projection: 69/17/61/.264/10

13) Jean Segura ARI – The trade to Arizona somewhat revived his fantasy hype. I guess it is nice to know somebody still believes in him. 2016 Projection: 67/8/53/.268/27

14) Ketel Marte SEA – Doesn’t get the hype the other SS’s in the 2015 rookie class receive. There is some risk here, but should provide a solid AVG and speed. 2016 Projection: 73/5/58/.275/21

15) Brandon Crawford SFG – Power explosion in 2015. Don’t think he will fall all the way back down to earth, but not paying for the career year either. 2016 Projection: 64/17/78/.254/4

16) Alexei Ramirez SD – Ballpark and lineup downgrades going from CHI to SD. Age concerns as well. 2016 Projection: 60/10/63/.263/15

17) Alcides Escobar KC – Speed and runs, nothing else. 2016 Projection: 75/4/49/.262/20

18) Eugenio Suarez CIN – 13 homers in 97 games last season. The high risk version of Crawford. 2016 Projection: 59/16/68/.252/5

19) Trevor Story SS – Story is the #30 ranked prospect in my 2016 Top 100 Prospects post. He has absolutely crushed spring training pitching, securing the starting SS job while Jose Reyes is suspended. Teams have no incentive to adjust to what he has been doing in Spring so far (for example, in 2015, Mike Zunino triple-slashed .353/.431/.882 with 7 homers in Spring, and then he hit .174/.230/.300 during the regular season), so don’t get too excited, but he certainly put his name on the redraft league map for this season. 2016 Projection: 55/13/51/.250/8

20) Jose Reyes COL – Injury concerns. Suspension concerns. Age concerns. I’m concerned. 2016 Projection: 42/5/28/.281/14

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings: 1-100

Prospect ranking season is finally here! Let’s get right down to business. These rankings are for Dynasty leagues, not for only 2016. Proximity to the majors is favored, but upside is still highly valued. With that in mind, here are the 2016 top 100 fantasy baseball prospects:

1) Corey Seager LAD, SS – Triple-slashed, .337/.425/.561, with 4 homers, and 2 steals in his first 113 MLB PA. Prime projection: 95/22/105/.300/8

2) Byron Buxton MIN, OF – Struggled in his first taste of the majors, but the tools and upside are still enormous. Prime projection: 105/15/80/.285/34

3) Yoan Moncada BOS, 2B – After a slow start to his stateside career, he absolutely tore up Single-A in the 2nd half. Sox paid $63 million to get this kid for a reason. Prime projection: 98/17/89/.280/30

4) Lucas Giolito WASH, RHP – Electric, top-of-the-rotation stuff. Struck out 131 batters in 117 IP in 2015. Prime projection: 2.91/1.03/226 in 210 IP

5) Tyler Glasnow PIT, RHP –  If you missed on Giolito, Glasnow is one hell of a consolation prize. Struck out 136 batters in 109.1 IP last season. Still needs some work repeating his delivery. Prime projection: 2.98/1.12/230 in 205 IP

6) A.J. Reed HOU, 1B – Wrote about him in my Finding the Next A.J. Reed article. Prime projection: 89/32/117/.282/3

7) Julio Urias LAD, LHP – Pitching prodigy in the truest sense of the word. As an 18-year-old, he climbed all the way to Triple-A last season. Easily might end up the best pitcher on this list. Prime projection: 3.10/1.09/211 in 200 IP

8) Andrew Benintendi BOS, OF – The best college bat in the 2015 draft. Didn’t miss a beat once reaching pro ball, triple-slashing, .313/.416/.556, hitting 11 homers, and stealing 10 bases in only 54 games. Prime projection: 90/23/100/.291/15

9) Lewis Brinson TEX, OF – Adam Jones 2.0. Put up a 1.004 OPS last season, and cut down on his strike outs. Legitimate 20/20 potential. Prime projection: 93/28/101/.274/17

10) Steven Matz NYM, LHP – Wrote about Matz in my Matz vs. Severino article. Prime projection: 3.33/1.16/188 in 195 IP

11) Alex Reyes STL, RHP – Fastball can reach 100 MPH. 13.6 K/9 last season. Poor command makes him riskier than the guys ranked above him, but still holds elite upside. Prime projection: 3.35/1.20/240 in 210 IP

12) Jose Berrios MIN, RHP – A bit undersized at 6’0’’, 185 pounds, but the numbers are undeniable. 2.87/1.05/175 in 166.1 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A. Plus command and control. Prime projection: 3.39/1.09/190 in 200 IP

13) Blake Snell TB, LHP– Put up a minuscule 1.41 ERA, striking out 163 batters in 134 IP last season. Rays have a strong history of developing starting pitchers. Prime projection: 3.36/1.15/209 in 198 IP

14) Jose De Leon LAD, RHP – Enjoyed a huge breakout in 2015, putting his name on the prospect map. Only Glasnow and Reyes have higher strikeout upside than De Leon on this list. Prime projection: 3.41/1.14/220 in 190 IP

15) J.P. Crawford PHI, SS – Would rank higher if this wasn’t a fantasy ranking, due to his plus defense and plate discipline. Projects for average power and above average speed. Prime projection: 100/12/62/.289/22

16) Brad Zimmer CLE, OF – 20/30 potential. Numbers dropped off after reaching Double-A last season, but was playing through a hairline fracture in his foot. Prime projection: 88/21/87/.270/25

17)  Joey Gallo TEX, 3B – Sooooooo many homers. Soooooooo many strike outs. Prime projection: 80/38/100/.242/5

18) Bobby Bradley CLE, 1B – Only Reed and Gallo have more power potential than Bradley on this list. Prime projection: 80/33/110/.253/4

19) Nomar Mazara TEX, OF – Rangers paid over $5 million to sign Mazara when he was 16 years old. All the talent in the world. Projects for above average contact and power. Prime projection: 89/24/104/.293/4

20) Derek Fisher HOU, OF – Wrote a Derek Fisher, 2016 Fantasy Prospect Sleeper post. Prime projection: 84/22/81/.270/17

21) Josh Hader MIL, LHP – Started to receive some hype after his fastball averaged 97 MPH in the Arizona Fall League. Big lefty. Reminiscent of Chris Sale. Prime projection: 3.31/1.18/193 in 190 IP

22) Tim Anderson CHW, SS – If I was breaking this up into tiers, this would be the beginning of the SS tier. But I’m not breaking this up into tiers, so this isn’t the beginning of the SS tier. Prime projection: 90/9/59/.277/31

23) Trea Turner WASH, SS – MLB ready, but will Stephen Drew and Danny Espinoza prospect block him? Plus speed and contact, with a little pop. Prime projection: 95/8/51/.282/28

24) Brendan Rodgers COL, SS – Oozing with potential. Can’t help but drool at the possibility of a power-hitting SS playing his home games at Coors. Still a long way off, though. Prime projection:  89/25/100/.280/7

25) Dansby Swanson ATL, SS – #1 overall pick in the 2015 draft. Slightly above average power and average speed. Better in real life than fantasy. Prime projection: 87/17/79/.286/14

26) Alex Bregman HOU, SS – #2 overall pick in the 2015 draft. Climbed all the way to High-A in his first year of pro ball, triple-slashing, .319/.364/.475. Prime projection: 92/15/74.293/15

27) Orlando Arcia MIL, SS – Another SS who would rank higher if this wasn’t a fantasy ranking. Broke out at the plate in 2015. Prime projection: 82/10/70/.274/25

28) Carson Fulmer CHW, RHP– 3rd pitcher selected, but best fantasy pitcher in the 2015 draft. Elite strikeout potential. Prime projection: 3.43/1.19/200 in 190 IP

29) Max Kepler MIN, OF – The big German had a monster 2015, putting up a .947 OPS in Double-A, with 9 homers and 18 steals. Prime projection:  85/18/85/.293/16

30) Trevor Story COL, SS – 20/20 season last year, splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A. Gets the Coors Field bump. Prime projection: 79/20/83/.258/14

31) Gary Sanchez NYY, C – Wrote about him in my New York Yankees Top 5 Fantasy Prospects article. Prime projection: 67/22/83/.280/4

32) Tom Murphy COL, C – If I told you there was this major league ready catcher, with tons of power, and will play half of his games at Coors Field, is that something you would be interested in? Prime projection: 65/25/85/.259/4

33) Alen Hanson PIT, 2B – Wrote a Alen Hanson, 2016 Fantasy Prospect Sleeper post. Prime projection: 84/13/70/.277/25

34) Aaron Judge NYY, OF – Wrote about him in my New York Yankees Top 5 Fantasy Prospects article. Prime projection: 75/26/90/.260/7

35) Victor Robles WASH, OF – The scouts are slobbering all over this kid. The numbers back up the praise, triple-slashing, .352/.445/.507, in the lower levels of the minors last season. Prime projection: 96/14/75/.304/30

36) Kolby Allard ATL, LHP – Injury concerns be damned! This kid is the real deal. Was the 1st prep arm selected in the 2015 draft. Stuff draws comparisons to Clayton Kershaw. ETA is 3-4 years down the line. Prime projection: 3.25/1.09/210 in 195 IP

37) Anderson Espinoza BOS, RHP – Another teenage arm who could be on the fast track to the majors. Drawing comparisons to Pedro Martinez. Prime projection: 3.35/1.11/198 in 190 IP

38) Jorge Mateo NYY, SS – Wrote about him in my New York Yankees Top 5 Fantasy Prospects article. Prime projection: 87/9/50/.275/42

39) Brett Phillips MIL, OF – Power/speed combo. Hard-nosed player whose tools play up. Prime projection: 86/17/76/.275/19

40) John Lamb CIN, LHP – Sleeper alert! Poor man’s Steven Matz. Put up a pitching line of 2.67/1.17/117 in 111.1 IP in Triple-A last season. Prime projection: 3.42/1.18/190 in 190 IP (Update: Out until mid-April after off-season back surgery)

41) Jesse Winker CIN, OF – Possibly the most advanced plate approach of any player in the minors. Power should continue to develop as he gets older. Prime projection: 94/20/100/.292/4

42) Raimel Tapia COL, OF – Elite contact skills. Above average speed. Average power. Gets the Coors Field bump. Prime projection: 92/13/70/.301/21

43) Willie Calhoun LAD, 2B – Wrote about him in my Finding the Next A.J. Reed article. Prime projection: 90/25/93/.294/3

44) Jose Peraza CIN, 2B – Elite contact and speed. Prime projection: 96/6/51/.285/37

45) Sean Manaea OAK, LHP – Struck out 236 batters in 196 career minor league IP. Comes with injury and bullpen risk. Prime projection: 3.49/1.21/195 in 185 IP.

46) Dillon Tate TEX, RHP – 1st pitcher selected in the 2015 draft. Last season was his first as a starter, so there are a lot of unknowns here. Prime projection: 3.50/1.19/189 in 200 IP.

47) David Dahl COL, OF – Tooled up, with 5-category upside. Had some injury issues the past few seasons. Prime projection: 89/17/73/.280/16

48) Grant Holmes LAD, RHP – The strikeout potential fantasy owners love, but still very raw. Prime projection: 3.44/1.27/199 in 188 IP

49) Ryan McMahon COL, 3B – Sweet swinging lefty, with power and strikeouts. Coors Field bump. Prime projection: 80/23/96/.272/6

50) Ian Happ CHC, 2B/OF – Advanced college bat. Power/speed combo. Played OF in college, but Cubs will try him at 2B. Prime projection: 85/19/76/.269/14

51) Harrison Bader STL, OF – Wrote about him in my Finding the Next A.J. Reed article. Prime projection: 85/20/81/.280/14

52) Willson Contreras CHC, C – Triple-slashed, .333/.413/.478, in a huge offensive breakout at Double-A last season. Hit only 8 homers, but power should come around. Prime projection: 64/16/81/.293/3

53) Austin Meadows PIT, OF – Power hasn’t developed as hoped quite yet, but everything else is there. If power comes, watch out. Prime projection: 94/15/83/.309/12

54) Sean Newcomb ATL, LHP – Tantalizing stuff, but major control issues. High risk, high reward. Prime projection: 3.40/1.28/195 in 180 IP

55) Robert Stephenson CIN, RHP – Look up one inch. Prime projection: 3.51/1.25/187 in 187 IP

56) Raul Mondesi Jr. KC, SS – Pure upside pick. The offense hasn’t come around yet, but he has been far younger than his competition at every level. Baseball bloodline. Prime projection: 79/15/71/.267/28

57) Franklin Barreto OAK, SS – Centerpiece of the Josh Donaldson trade. 5-category potential. Oakland is stacked at SS, so a move to CF is possible. Prime projection: 86/14/77/.287/22

58) Clint Frazier CLE, OF – A breakout waiting to happen. #5 overall pick in the 2013 draft. Game power just started to blossom last season. Prime projection: 79/24/90/.271/8

59) Nick Williams PHI, OF – Has the tools to be higher on this list, but scouts still question his plate approach. Prime projection: 85/18/78/.276/10

60) Josh Bell PIT, 1B – Elite contact skills, but plus raw power has not shown up in games yet. Prime projection: 78/19/90/.299/7

61) Hunter Renfroe SD, OF – Power and strikeouts. Likely to break into the majors this year. Prime projection: 74/24/86/.266/6

62) Forrest Wall COL, 2B – By now, you know I love me some Coors Field hitters. 5-category potential at 2B. Prime projection: 87/14/73/.284/21

63) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B – Another pure upside pick. Triple-slashed, .288/.329/.443, as an 18-year-old in Single-A. Prime projection: 80/21/96/.287/5

64) Manuel Margot SD, OF – More valuable in real life, due to his plus CF defense. There is plenty of time for the bat to come around, though. Prime projection: 85/11/60/.278/29

65) Cody Reed CIN, LHP – Big, strong lefty. Struck out 144 batters in 145.2 IP last season, splitting time between High-A and Double-A. Prime projection: 3.44/1.19/192 in 200 IP

66) Francis Martes HOU, RHP – Came out of nowhere in 2015. Climbed all the way to Double-A as a 19-year-old. Reminiscent of Luis Severino’s rise a few years ago. Prime projection: 3.39/1.10/176 in 185 IP

67) Kyle Zimmer KC, RHP – You feeling lucky? Elite strikeout potential, but major injury concerns. Prime projection: 3.30/1.17/180 in 160 IP

68) Jacob Faria TB, RHP – Sleeper alert! Put up a pitching line of 2.51/1.09/96 in 75.1 IP, pitching in Double-A last season. Doesn’t have the big fastball, but his delivery creates a lot of deception. Gets a bump due to Tampa Bay’s success with developing pitchers like him. Prime projection: 3.50/1.15/185 in 190 IP

69) Jack Flaherty STL, RHP – We can “own” prospects in fantasy, but we still need to rely on actual baseball teams to develop them. And there isn’t a better team at player development than the St. Louis Cardinals. Flaherty struck out 97 batters in 95 IP last season, in his first full season of pro ball at Single-A. Fastball currently sits in the low 90’s, but still time to gain a few MPH as he ages. Prime projection: 3.35/1.18/175 in 200 IP

70) Justus Sheffield CLE, LHP – Cleveland has been on fire of late developing starting pitching. Time to jump on the bandwagon. He is also Gary Sheffield’s nephew. Prime projection: 3.48/1.22/200 in 188 IP

71) Brent Honeywell TB, RHP ­– More Tampa Bay love. Honeywell is advanced beyond his years. Comes with a nasty screwball that he learned from his father. Prime projection: 3.42/1.12/179 in 190 IP

72) Jacob Nottingham MIL, C – Bat-first catcher. Triple-slashed, .316/.372/.505, and hit 17 homers in 119 games last season, splitting his time between Single-A and High-A. Prime projection: 63/20/78/.276/1

73) Renato Nunez OAK, 3B – Another breakout waiting to happen. Not like he hasn’t been hitting already, though, launching 18 homers in only 93 Double-A games last season. This coming off a 29 homer season in High-A in 2014. Prime projection: 82/21/91/.284/1

74) Matt Olson OAK, 1B – After hitting 37 homers in High-A in 2014, hit only 17 in Double-A last season. But some of that had to do with going from an extreme hitter’s park, to an extreme pitcher’s park. Tons of walks and strikeouts. Prime projection: 79/26/90.257/3

75) Ozhaino Albies ATL, SS – Triple-slashed, .310/.368/.404, and stole 29 bags as an 18-year-old in Single-A. Projects as a prototypical leadoff hitter. Prime projection: 95/4/49/.295/33

76) Anthony Alford TOR, OF – 5-category upside with all the tools. Still very raw, but started to show flashes of his enormous potential last season. Prime projection: 81/16/79/.272/18

77) Dominic Smith NYM, 1B – 11th overall pick in the 2013 draft. Plus raw power has not shown up in games yet, but has exhibited elite contact skills. Power should develop down the line. Prime projection: 78/20/90/.293/2

78) Tyler O’Neill SEA, OF – (Update: I wrote a Tyler O’Neill, 2016 Fantasy Prospect Sleeper aritcle) – I might be getting drawn in by the inflated HR total (32 in 106 games) he put up in the notoriously hitterish Cal League. And Seattle’s recent history of developing position players is scary. But the bat speed and exit velocity are for real. I’m willing to take a chance on him here. Prime projection: 73/25/88/.249/9

79) Jorge Alfaro PHI, C ­– Power-hitting catcher with tons of raw talent. Just hasn’t put it together yet. Prime projection: 62/17/73/.245/5

80) Jake Thompson PHI, RHP – We now enter the mid-rotation starter portion of the list. Don’t count on these guys to carry your fantasy staff, but that doesn’t mean they can’t be useful. Prime projection: 3.52/1.20/173 in 193 IP

81) Aaron Blair ATL, RHP – 6’5’’, 230-pound workhorse. Atlanta acquired him as part of the Shelby Miller trade. Prime projection: 3.48/1.19/169 in 200 IP

82) Michael Fulmer DET, RHP – Finally stayed healthy for an entire season. Put up a pitching line of 2.24/1.08/125 in 124.2 IP at Double-A in 2015. Still some bullpen risk. Prime projection: 3.57/1.23/180 in 185 IP

83) Archie Bradley ARI, RHP ­– 7th overall pick in the 2011 draft. Classic mid-rotation starter profile. Prime projection: 3.55/1.24/176 in 189 IP

84) Braden Shipley ARI, RHP – 15th overall pick in the 2013 draft. Classic mid-rotation starter profile. Do I hear an echo? Prime projection: 3.59/1.20/168 in 184 IP

85) Erick Fedde WASH, RHP – We now enter the injured, but tons of upside portion of the list. These guys have top-of-the-rotation potential, but still have to prove it coming off major injuries. Prime projection: 3.41/1.15/169 in 185 IP

86) Jameson Taillon PIT, RHP – Hasn’t pitched since 2013 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. We can only guess if his stuff will return completely to its pre-surgery level. Prime projection: 3.38/1.13/150 in 150 IP

87) Hunter Harvey BAL, RHP – Constant elbow problems have dogged Harvey over the past few seasons. But he has avoided Tommy John surgery, so far. If he puts together a healthy season in 2016, he could vault up this list. Prime projection: 3.45/1.18/160 in 150 IP

88) Dylan Bundy BAL, RHP – Tommy John surgery cost him all of 2013. In 2014, it was more arm trouble. Last season, it was shoulder problems. The potential is still elite, though. Prime projection: 3.50/1.16/150 in 150 IP

89) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF – Most advanced prep bat in the 2015 draft. Drafted #5 overall. Swing draws comparisons to Ted Williams, if outlandish player comparisons are your thing. Prime projection: 86/18/84/.284/14

90) Kevin Padlo TB, 3B – After struggling in Single-A to start 2015, put up a .906 OPS, with 9 homers, and 33 steals in only 70 games after being sent down to Low-A. Buy now before it is too late. Prime projection: 85/16/75/.280/22 (Update: Traded to Tampa Bay in the Corey Dickerson trade)

91) Mallex Smith ATL, OF – MLB ready steals. If you are looking for an immediate contributor in the stolen base category, Smith is your man. Don’t expect much else. Prime projection: 87/6/47/.283/39

92) Roman Quinn PHI, OF – Trouble staying healthy his entire career, but has elite speed and a plus hit tool when he does play. Prime projection: 86/8/57/.284/37

93) Gleybor Torres CHC, SS – Triple-slashed, .293/.353/.386, as an 18-year-old in Single-A last season. Solid tools across the board. Prime projection: 81/15/70/.283/15

94) Matt Chapman OAK, 3B – 25th overall pick in the 2014 draft. Launched 23 homers in only 80 games playing in the Cal League last season. Prime projection: 72/24/86/.263/3

95) Cody Bellinger LAD, 1B/OF – Launched 30 homers in 128 games playing in the Cal League last season. Looking at all of these bloated Cal League home run totals, it makes me think I can hit double-digit homers there (yea, in my dreams). His father is former New York Yankees utility man, Clay Bellinger. Prime projection: 75/21/92/.271/7

96) Luis Ortiz TEX, RHP – Drew comparisons to Jose Fernandez when he was drafted out of high school in 2014. Was dominating Single-A last season before being shut down with an elbow strain. Top-of-the-rotation potential, but need to see more. Prime projection: 3.56/1.17/163 in 175 IP

97) Javier Guerra SD, SS – Known more for his glove than his bat. Still managed to hit 15 homers in 116 Single-A games last season as a 19-year-old. Prime projection: 78/14/69/.280/9

98) Tyler Jay MIN, LHP – 6th overall pick in the 2015 draft. Dominant reliever in college, but has the repertoire and stuff to start. Elite strikeout potential, but just too many unknowns at this point. Prime projection: 3.60/1.25/180 in 180 IP

99) Austin Byler ARI, 1B – Wrote about him in my Finding the Next A.J. Reed article. Prime Projection: 69/25/87/.243/4

100) Jon Gray COL, RHP – If you are sick of hearing about the Coors Field bump, you are in luck, because Gray gets the Coors Field downgrade. Ace potential outside of Coors. Poor guy. Prime Projection: 3.76/1.24/191 in 200 IP

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings: 16-40

Prospect ranking season is finally here! We start in reverse, reverse order this year. Most people would start from 100, and count down to 1. But not here at Imaginary Brick Wall, where we turn traditional logic on its head … and then flip it back around again.

It should be noted that these rankings are for dynasty leagues, not for just 2016. Proximity to the majors is favored, but upside is still highly valued.

2016 Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings: 1-15

16) Brad Zimmer CLE, OF – 20/30 potential. Numbers dropped off after reaching Double-A last season, but was playing through a hairline fracture in his foot. Prime projection: 88/21/87/.270/25

17)  Joey Gallo TEX, 3B – Sooooooo many homers. Soooooooo many strike outs. Prime projection: 80/38/100/.242/5

18) Bobby Bradley CLE, 1B – Only Reed and Gallo have more power potential than Bradley on this list. Prime projection: 80/33/110/.253/4

19) Nomar Mazara TEX, OF – Rangers paid over $5 million to sign Mazara when he was 16 years old. All the talent in the world. Projects for above average contact and power. Prime projection: 89/24/104/.293/4

20) Derek Fisher HOU, OF – Wrote a Derek Fisher, 2016 Fantasy Prospect Sleeper post. Prime projection: 84/22/81/.270/17

21) Josh Hader MIL, LHP – Started to receive some hype after his fastball averaged 97 MPH in the Arizona Fall League. Big lefty. Reminiscent of Chris Sale. Prime projection: 3.31/1.18/193 in 190 IP

22) Tim Anderson CHW, SS – If I was breaking this up into tiers, this would be the beginning of the SS tier. But I’m not breaking this up into tiers, so this isn’t the beginning of the SS tier. Prime projection: 90/9/59/.277/31

23) Trea Turner WASH, SS – MLB ready, but will Stephen Drew and Danny Espinoza prospect block him? Plus speed and contact, with a little pop. Prime projection: 95/8/51/.282/28

24) Brendan Rodgers COL, SS – Oozing with potential. Can’t help but drool at the possibility of a power hitting SS playing half his games at Coors. Still a long way off, though. Prime projection:  89/25/100/.280/7

25) Dansby Swanson ATL, SS – #1 overall pick in the 2015 draft. Slightly above average power and average speed. Better in real life than fantasy. Prime projection: 87/17/79/.286/14

26) Alex Bregman HOU, SS – #2 overall pick in the 2015 draft. Climbed all the way to High-A in his first year of pro ball, triple-slashing, .319/.364/.475. Prime projection: 92/15/74.293/15

27) Orlando Arcia MIL, SS – Another SS who would rank higher if this wasn’t a fantasy ranking. Broke out at the plate in 2015. Prime projection: 82/10/70/.274/25

28) Carson Fulmer CHW, RHP– 3rd pitcher selected, but best fantasy pitcher in the 2015 draft. Elite strikeout potential. Prime projection: 3.43/1.19/200 in 190 IP

29) Max Kepler MIN, OF – The big German had a monster 2015, putting up a .947 OPS in Double-A, with 9 homers and 18 steals. Prime projection:  85/18/85/.293/16

30) Trevor Story COL, SS – 20/20 season last year, splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A. Gets the Coors Field bump. Prime projection: 79/20/83/.258/14

31) Gary Sanchez NYY, C – Wrote about him in my New York Yankees Top 5 Fantasy Prospects article. Prime projection: 67/22/83/.280/4

32) Tom Murphy COL, C – If I told you there was this major league ready catcher, with tons of power, and will play half of his games at Coors Field, is that something you would be interested in? Prime projection: 65/25/85/.259/4

33) Alen Hanson PIT, 2B – Wrote a Alen Hanson, 2016 Fantasy Prospect Sleeper post. Prime projection: 84/13/70/.277/25

34) Aaron Judge NYY, OF – Wrote about him in my New York Yankees Top 5 Fantasy Prospects article. Prime projection: 75/26/90/.260/7

35) Victor Robles WASH, OF – The scouts are slobbering all over this kid. The numbers back up the praise, triple-slashing, .352/.445/.507, in the lower levels of the minors last season. Prime projection: 96/14/75/.304/30

36) Kolby Allard ATL, LHP – Injury concerns be damned! This kid is the real deal. Was the 1st prep arm selected in the 2015 draft. Stuff draws comparisons to Clayton Kershaw. ETA is 3-4 years down the line. Prime projection: 3.25/1.09/210 in 195 IP

37) Anderson Espinoza BOS, RHP – Another teenage arm who could be on the fast track to the majors. Drawing comparisons to Pedro Martinez. Prime projection: 3.35/1.11/198 in 190 IP

38) Jorge Mateo NYY, SS – Wrote about him in my New York Yankees Top 5 Fantasy Prospects article. Prime projection: 87/9/50/.275/42

39) Brett Phillips MIL, OF – Power/speed combo. Hard-nosed player whose tools play up. Prime projection: 86/17/76/.275/19

40) John Lamb CIN, LHP – Sleeper alert! Poor man’s Steven Matz. Will start 2016 in the Reds rotation. Put up a pitching line of 2.67/1.17/117 in 111.1 IP in Triple-A last season. Prime projection: 3.42/1.18/190 in 190 IP
2016 Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings: 41-70

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com