Patreon Post: September 2023 Top 393 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings

We’re finishing out the season strong over on the Patreon with Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings Week. I was more lenient with these rankings, including everyone under 50 IP or 130 AB. Previous rankings are in parenthesis from August through the off-season, in that order. I’ll be going over 350 deep with blurbs for just about everyone. Top 30 free here on the Brick Wall. And just a reminder that there is tons of content coming all off-season with Team Dynasty Reports, deep positional rankings, Winter League updates, strategy articles, podcasts, and very, very early releases of the Top 100 FYPD Rankings, Top 500 Prospects Rankings, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings. On that note, here is the September 2023 Top 393 Dynasty Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-SEPTEMBER TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: SEPTEMBER MAILBAG! (9/22/23)
-Off-Season content includes team prospect lists, deep positional rankings, strategy articles, podcasts and very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

1) (1) (1) (1) (2) (6) (13) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.10 – Finally met a level he couldn’t just dominate right off the bat with a 85 wRC+ in 12 games at Triple-A, but really he’s just getting unlucky with a 13.6%/16.9% K%/BB% and .250 BABIP

2) (2) (2) (3) (5) (4) (3) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.6 – Slashing .323/.380/.544 with 11 homers, 20 steals, and a 34/19 K/BB in 51 games with the regular ball

3) (3) (3) (2) (6) (3) (7) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 21.2 – Made his MLB debut and is struggling with 8 strikeouts and a 9 wRC+ in 22 PA. He had a 20.6% K% in the upper minors, so I wouldn’t be too concerned. If this creates a buying opportunity this off-season, I would be all over it

4) (5) (5) (5) (11) (47) (92) Junior Caminero TBR, 3B, 20.2 – Plate approach actually managed to improve at Double-A with a 17.1%/9.1% K%/BB% in 81 games (25.2%/8.3% K%/BB% in 36 games at High-A). If you don’t care about steals, Caminero has a case to be the top prospect in baseball

5) (FYPD-1) (7) (8) Wyatt Langford TEX, OF, 21.9 – Langford just passed Crews in my 2024 Top 54 First Year Player Draft Rankings that dropped on the Patreon last week. The much superior Double-A production makes it a relatively easy call

6) (11) (11) (13) (14) (41) (30) Noelvi Marte CIN, SS, 21.10 – Remember when everyone called him fat and slow this off-season? Well, Marte has 6 steals with a 28.9 ft/sec sprint speed which is in the top 11% of the league. He’s also crushing the ball with a 92.4 MPH EV in 83 PA which has led to a .303 BA. Dude is going to be a fantasy beast

7) (4) (6) (6) (18) (23) (25) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.5 – 0 hits and 4 strikeouts in 10 MLB PA. Dynasty owners are notorious for running scared after poor small sample MLB debuts, so I would be licking my chops if a nervous owner makes Lawlar or Pete Crow available this off-season

8) (FYPD-2) (6) (7) Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 21.6 – 0 homers with a 73 wRC+ in 20 games at Double-A. He was also 4 for 10 on the bases in 35 games. It’s not a great pro debut, but it’s too small of a sample to get concerned. I’m still betting on him being a beast

9) (FYPD-3) Yoshinobu Yamamoto JPN, RHP, 25.1 – Yamamoto looks like a ready made ace. He has the filthy stuff, plus control, plus durability, diverse pitch mix, plus strikeout rates, lights out production, athletic delivery  … there is nothing he doesn’t have

10) (10) (10) (17) (15) (13) (34) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 21.0 – Electric pro debut with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a .864 OPS in 33 PA, but a 38.8% whiff% and 86.8 MPH EV says there could still be an an adjustment period coming

11) (8) (4) (4) (7) (14) (8) James Wood WAS, OF, 21.0 – 33.7% K% in 87 games at Double-A adds a healthy dose of risk to the very high upside profile

12) (12) (13) (14) (16) (15) (10) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.8 – Was in the midst of a historic MLB debut with 4 homers in 8 games before going down with a torn UCL that required Tommy John surgery. He’s expected to miss 9-10 months which puts the 2nd half of 2024 as the target return date. Tommy John isn’t as big of a deal for hitters as it is for pitchers, so I wouldn’t be concerned long term, but short term, I would consider any contributions in 2024 gravy

13) (FYPD-4) (13) (16) Walker Jenkins MIN, OF, 18.6 – Meet the #1 prospect in baseball by this time next year

14) (FYPD-5) (9) (9) Paul Skenes PIT, RHP, 21.3 – Now everyone is talking shit about the fastball shape, but with the big velocity, command, and excellent secondaries, I wouldn’t sweat it too much

15) (23) (21) (35) (32) (70) (118) Ronny Mauricio NYM, SS, 22.5 – Profile is completely transferring to the majors with a 91.3 MPH EV, 3 steals, and a 23.5%/5.9% K%/BB% in 51 PA

16) (FYPD-6) (36) (43) Matt Shaw CHC, SS, 21.10 – Double-A production (3 homers, 6 steals, and a 17.1% K% in 15 games) puts him in Tier 1 of First Year Player Draft Rankings (unless you consider Langford in a tier of his own)

17) (28) (29) (134) (192) (232) (319) Roman Anthony BOS, OF, 19.4 – Called up to Double-A and is slashing .343/.477/.543 with 1 homer, 3 steals, and a 13.6%/18.2% K%/BB% in 10 games. He’s putting a cherry on top of a great season

18) (63) (84) (181) (212) (277) (249) Jackson Jobe DET, RHP, 21.1 – Made his debut at Double-A and was silly dominant, going 6 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB. He was already an elite pitching prospect, and that performance puts him in the conversation for the best pitching prospect in baseball

19) (17) (24) (50) (57) (67) (71) Jackson Merrill SDP, SS, 20.4 – Brought the GB% all the way down to 33.5% in 46 games at Double-A, although it still hasn’t turned him into a power hitting beast with 5 homers

20) (22) (NA) (12) (9) (32) (38) Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 23.3 – Failed hard in the majors with a .434 OPS in 77 PA, but nothing in the underlying numbers is setting off alarm bells, and he was definitely unlucky with a .226 wOBA vs. .302 xwOBA. He’s now back to raking at Triple-A

21) (30) (26) (38) (41) (53) (51) Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 22.4 – Double-A debut has been very encouraging with 3 homers, 8 steals, and a 28.2%/9% K%/BB% in 17 games. The fact the K% hasn’t skyed to like 40% is a good sign

22) (FYPD-7) (14) (14) Max Clark DET, OF, 18.8 – Single-A slowed him down with a 29.4% K% and 73 wRC+, but he still has Corbin Carroll/PCA 2.0 written all over him

23) (15) (33) (55) (135) (185) (265) Ethan Salas SDP, C, 17.3 – Promoting him to Double-A just seemed silly and unnecessary, but it doesn’t take away from his unprecedented season as a 17 year old in full season ball

24) (29) (22) (19) (17) (22) (48) Coby Mayo BAL, 3B, 21.9 – I ranked Mayo 8th overall on my Predicting the Top 50 2024 Prospects Rankings back in February on the Patreon and wrote, “Mayo will follow in Gunnar Henderson’s footsteps with an off the charts type season in the upper minors. He’ll put up a 150 wRC+ at Double-A and a 130 wRC+ at Triple-A. The K% will be under 25%, the power will be huge, and there will be some surprising speed too.” … I came pretty close to nailing that on the dot with a 178 wRC+ at Double-A, 123 wRC+ at Triple-A, a 23.8% K%, and 28 homers. The one thing that didn’t come to fruition was the speed with only 5 steals, but come on, not bad if I don’t say so myself

25) (27) (28) (43) (56) (42) (33) Emmanuel Rodriguez MIN, OF, 20.6 – Cracked 2 dingers yesterday in the High-A playoffs. Baby Bonds is clutch too

26) (26) (27) (22) (24) (46) (47) Harry Ford SEA, C, 20.5 – The still underhyped Ford has an electric power/speed combo (15 homers and 24 steals in 118 games at High-A), and it comes with an elite plate approach (19.4%/18.3% K%/BB%)

27) (32) (31) (51) (59) (54) (52) Termarr Johnson PIT, 2B/SS, 19.3 – I ranked Johnson 33rd overall on the Predicting the 2024 Dynasty Prospects Rankings back in February and wrote, “Johnson’s hit tool at Single-A won’t be as good as the hype with an over 20% K% and under .280 BA. The power/speed numbers will be good though, and he’ll still destroy the level with a 130 wRC+.” … nailed that one too as Johnson put up a .244 BA, 26% K%, 18 homers, 10 steals, and a 141 wRC+ in 105 games split between Single-A and High-A

28) (33) (32) (211) (251) (318) (320) Sebastian Walcott TEX, SS, 17.4 – 32.5%/6.4% K%/BB% in 35 games in stateside rookie ball is on the extreme side regardless of his age, but I’m still betting on the truly elite talent

29) (38) (73) (64) (38) (57) (335) Mason Miller OAK, RHP, 24.5 – Returned from the UCL injury and has gone 5 IP over 3 outings. The huge stuff is all the way back, but Oakland is going to be super careful with him to close out the season. The high upside/high risk profile is pretty self evident right now

30) (37) (46) (53) (120) (126) (171) Cade Horton CHC, RHP, 22.0 – 1.33 ERA with a 28.4%/10.1% K%/BB% in 27 IP at Double-A. The Double-A production has cemented his elite pitching prospect status

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-SEPTEMBER TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: SEPTEMBER MAILBAG! (9/22/23)
-Off-Season content includes team prospect lists, deep positional rankings, strategy articles, podcasts and very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

The Wednesday Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/19/23)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays (and I guess Wednesdays sometimes when I get jammed up, ha) throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Wednesday Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/19/23):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 473 JULY DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 331 JUNE DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (7/14/23)
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (6/29/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JUNE MAILBAG! (6/27/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

*I was on an extended weekend family trip on Monday and Tuesday that I thought I was going to be able to write during but it turned out I couldn’t. My bad.

Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 21.7 – When I ranked Alvarez 92nd overall on the Updated July Top 473 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), he was in the midst of slumping, but I didn’t let it scare me off him, and he’s been molten hot since. He went 2 for 3 with a 108.6 MPH homer off Lucas Gioltio and a 106.5 MPH homer of Tanner Banks. It was his 18th and 19th homers of the year in 69 games, and he now has a 7 homers with a 1.363 OPS in 11 July games. He leads all catchers in the homer category and he’s done it in far less at bats. This is just the beginning.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand CIN, 1B/3B, 23.6 – That unsurprisingly didn’t take long. Strand walloped his first MLB homer in his 2nd game with a 426 foot, 105.8 MPH bomb. How could anyone have guessed a guy who hit 20 homers with a .331 BA in 67 games at Triple-A would be good? Maybe it was that extra month or two at Triple-A that really put the finishing touches on him 😉

Bryce Elder ATL, RHP, 24.0 – In the easiest regression call of all time, Elder had his 2nd clunker in a row, going 6 IP with 12 ER and a 4/5 K/BB (5 ER in 2.2 IP last night). This is why I just never really bought into him, and while he can still be a decent fantasy starter, his 4.12 xERA has always been more indicative of his true talent level.

Lazaro Montes SEA, OF, 18.8 – Montes is officially going full breakout after cracking 2 homers yesterday and 3 homers in his last 2 games at stateside rookie ball. He’s improved on his danger zone K% of 33.2% in 2022, bringing it down to a not horrific 27.9% this year, and he’s still walking a ton with a 23.1% BB%. It’s all added up to a 145 wRC+ in 26 games. He’s right on track to become an elite power hitting prospect.

Sebastian Walcott TEX, SS, 17.3 – 3 for 4 with a double, and most importantly, he didn’t strike out once. The strikeouts are the only blemish on his profile with a 29%/4.3% K%/BB% in 15 games in stateside rookie ball, but considering he’s still only 17 years old, and his otherwise insane production (6 homers, 6 steals, and a 181 wRC+) it is very easy to overlook. He was my #1 international prospect target, hyping him hard (with a side of Joendry Vargas who is also killing it in the DSL right now) in my First Year Player Draft Target and Strategy Guide (Patreon) all the way back on January 5th, writing, “Sebastian Walcott TEX, SS, 17.1/ Joendry Vargas LAD, SS, 17.5 – I love searching for that relatively underrated international prospect. The guy who isn’t getting hyped up at the very top of the class but I think should be. It was Alexander Ramirez for me in 2020 (big hit), Maikol Hernandez in 2021 (oof), Lazaro Montes in 2022 (looking good), and in 2023, it’s Sabastian Walcott. This dude looks like a next level athlete in the sparse Youtube videos out there. It’s what made me fall in love so much with Ramirez and Montes, and that was worked out for me. Walcott even stands out relative to the other elite athletes in his class. Vargas is getting some more rankings love than Walcott, but still isn’t really talked about like the very top guys yet. He’s also a good international target.” Walcott started to get a lot more love later in the off-season, but you were already all over him early if you read my stuff.

Xavier Isaac TBR, 1B, 19.6 – Isaac has continued to quietly establish himself as a future elite hitting prospect. He demolished a 440 foot no doubter yesterday for his 3rd in 4 games and his 9th in 64 games. The GB% continues to come down to a reasonable 46.4%, and he has an excellent plate approach with a 19.9%/14.7% K%/BB%. It’s all led to a 141 wRC+. He rose to 68th overall on the June Top Top 331 Prospects Rankings (Patreon), and he’ll take another big jump in the Updated July Prospects Rankings coming next week.

Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.4 – The Southern League is in the post pre-tacked ball era, and Chourio is loving every minute of it, smoking an opposite field homer yesterday and is now 10 for 18 with 2 doubles, 2 homers and a 1/1 K/BB in 4 games with the normal ball. He’s basically picked right up from the destruction he laid last year. I wouldn’t say we should completely throw out the first half stats of all players in the Southern League, but it’s going to be mighty interesting to see the difference from the 1st half to the 2nd half. I didn’t budge off Chourio with his good, but not explosive 1st half, and now he’s exploding all over again.

Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.6 – Dominguez is getting hot again. He went deep for the 2nd time in 3 games and now has a .934 OPS with 7 steals and a 14/8 K/BB in 13 July games. It think the backlash against Dominguez’ ridiuclous hype as a 17 year old has made him underrated over the past couple years. He’s a 20 year old at Double-A with a 108 wRC+ and a nasty power/speed combo (12 homers and 25 steals in 80 games).

Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.3 – My #6 ranked prospect on the June Top 331 Rankings, Armstrong has been an extra base machine since returning from the break. He smushed his 11th homer in 64 games at Double-A yesterday and now has 3 doubles, 1 triple, and 1 homer in his last 14 AB. The power explosion is exciting considering his speed (23 steals) and defense, and while the 24%/7.7% K%/BB% isn’t great, it’s not bad either. I’m all in on Armstrong and have been since his draft year.

Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.10 – What lack of power? Carter deposited his 10th homer of the season right in the lazy river. He’s been on fire since returning from injury, slashing .354/.426/.622 with 5 homers, 2 steals (in 6 attempts) and a 18/10 K/BB in 21 games. The only real blemish on his season is a terrible stolen base success rate (11 for 18), but I think we can overlook that with the power uptick and great plate approach.

Emmanuel Rodriguez MIN, OF, 20.4 – It’s been an up and down season for Baby Bonds, and we’re now back on the upswing with his first homer since June 23rd. He has a .914 OPS in his last 6 games after going 0 for 22 in the 8 games before that. That is a microcosm of his entire season, but a 131 wRC+ with 11 homers and 11 steals in 60 games at High-A ain’t too shabby at all. The 31.8% K% and .214 BA prevents a true explosion to elite prospect status, but his value has at least held steady this year.

Ceddanne Rafaela BOS, OF, 22.3 – All Rafaela has done at Triple-A is hit dingers, and I mean that in both a good and bad way. He smoked his 5th homer in 15 games at the level, but it comes with a 25%/1.5% K%/BB%. The extremely low walk rates are a bit concerning, but he makes up for it with plus speed and plus defense. The profile isn’t that far off from Pete Crow, and he’s now knocking on the door of the bigs.

Jett Williams NYM, SS, 19.8 – Jett may be only 5’6”, but he’s starting to look pretty thick (in a good way), and he’s proving he has enough juice in his bat to make a legit impact. He launched his 5th homer in 70 games at Single-A yesterday and it comes with 29 steals and a 20.6%/19.6% K%/BB%. He only has a .243 BA because the GB% is probably a little too low for his type of profile with a 35.2% GB%, but that is a much easier fix than trying to learn how to lift the ball more. It’s a damn exciting fantasy profile and he is very easily a top 100 fantasy prospect.

Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 22.1 – Jones crushed his 11th homer in 72 games off a pretty nice looking curve that caught too much of the plate. We already know about the power and speed, and his plate approach has looked much better of late with a 24.3%/14.8% K%/BB% in his last 31 games. I would say he’s conquered High-A at this point and is just waiting for his next challenge in the upper minors.

Tyler Black MIL, 2B, 22.11 – Black was one of my first buy calls of the season, and he’s went on to just continue crushing the upper minors all year. He went 4 for 6 with a frozen rope homer yesterday and is now slashing .282/.427/.524 with 13 homers, 42 steals, and a 20.3%/16.8% K%/BB% in 70 games at Double-A. Call me crazy, but I think he’s ready for Triple-A.

Coby Mayo BAL, 3B, 21.6/Orelvis Martinez TOR, SS, 21.6 – Another day, another dinger. Mayo and Orelvis both went deep again, and it was both of their 18th homers. It was also both of their first homers at Triple-A after recently getting called up to the level. I prefer Mayo, but they are both elite power hitting prospects.

Christian Scott NYM, RHP, 24.1 – 7 IP, 6 hits, 2 ER, 8/0 K/BB at Double-A. Scott transitioned into a full time starter role after being mostly used out of the pen in his career, and he’s taken to it well with a 3.22 ERA and 28.8%/5% K%/BB% in 36.1 IP at Double-A. He’s a big dude at 6’4”, 215 pounds and the stuff is very good with a mid 90’s fastball and plus slider. He might still end up in the pen when it’s all said and done, but there is definitely mid rotation upside and he’s definitely an exciting pop up pitching prospect.

Ty Madden DET, RHP, 23.4 – 4.2 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 8/2 K/BB at Double-A. Madden has always felt a bit underrated to me. He has the size (6’3”, 215), velocity (mid 90’s heat), diverse pitch mix (fastball, slider, curve, change), and production (3.68 ERA with a 27.1%/9.5% K%/BB%) to make a legit fantasy impact. He’s not a bad low key target if you are struggling to acquire pitching as he’s also close to the bigs.

Logan Allen CLE, LHP, 24.11 – Allen is back in the majors and it didn’t take long for him to re-establish himself, going 5 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 8/1 K/BB vs. Pitt. The changeup was a whiff machine with a 50% whiff% and it led to a 29% whiff% on the day. The stuff isn’t huge with a 90.4 MPH fastball in this one, and he’s not an elite control guy, which limits his upside, but the guy knows how to pitch and can miss bats. It’s a #4-ish starter profile.

Jordan Beck COL, OF, 22.2 – Beck got the call to Double-A post break and he had his first big day at the level, going 2 for 4 with a triple and a homer. He has a 115 wRC+ in 4 games but it comes with a 46.2%/0.0% K%/BB%. It’s still obviously too small of a sample to say anything in either direction, but the one thing to watch is that K%, because we know about the big talent at 6’3”, 225 pounds with a plus power/speed combo. He was one of my targets in my Top 9 Dynasty Baseball Targets (Patreon) from a few weeks ago.

Victor Scott STL, OF, 22.3 – Double-A hasn’t slowed Scott down at all. He lined his 2nd homer in 13 games and is now slashing .333/.377/.491 with 2 homers, 6 steals, and a 12.9%/4.8% K%/BB% in 13 games at the level. He rose to 233rd overall on the latest prospect rankings, and that is set to take another big jump next week. He’s legitimately exciting with a plus contact/speed profile.

Jud Fabian BAL, OF, 22.7 – Fabian smacked his 5th homer at 20 games since getting called up to Double-A, but unfortunately his hit tool has basically been a worst case scenario with a .171 BA and 37.6% K%. That is exactly what we didn’t want to see, but he’s made adjustments in the past, and we have to give him some time to make adjustments again against upper minors pitchers.

Ivan Melendez ARI, 1B, 23.7 – Melendez got the call to Double-A, and literally all he’s done is rip dingers. He cracked 2 homers yesterday and he now has 4 homers in 3 games at the level. He wasn’t too bad at High-A either with 18 homers in 58 games. He’s certainly made up for his lackluster debut in 2022, but he still isn’t without his warts with a 33.6%/8.2% K%/BB% (30.8%/7.7% K%/BB% at Double-A). It is a bit of a Quad-A type slugger profile, and he’s also hit lefties much better than righties. A low BA, part time power bat might be the most likely outcome, but he’s left little doubt that he will be able to mash homers at any level.

Alek Manoah TOR, RHP, 25.6 – 3 IP, 3 hits, 4 ER. 0/5 K/BB vs. SDP … oof, still brutal

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 473 JULY DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 331 JUNE DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (7/14/23)
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (6/29/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JUNE MAILBAG! (6/27/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)