Patreon Post: Top 500 Prospects Rankings for 2023 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Leagues

It’s Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings Week over on the Patreon, and we kick it off today with the Top 500 Prospects Rankings for 2023 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Leagues. The Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings will drop tomorrow at the earliest, and Monday at the very, very latest. These lists will be released here on Imaginary Brick Wall in mid to late March. Here is the Top 500 Prospects Rankings for 2023 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Leagues:

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1) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 21.9 – Nothing makes me more comfortable about a prospect than one who gets called up to the majors and immediately puts up elite exit velocity numbers. Henderson smacked the crap outta the ball to the tune of a 92.4/98.1 MPH AVG/FB EV in 132 MLB PA. That would almost be enough for me to love love a player on it’s own, a la Oneil Cruz, but Henderson does just about everything else well too. His hit tool improved majorly this year, dropping his K% from 30.1% in 2021 in mostly the lower minors, to 23.1% in 2022 in the upper minors. The improvements transferred to the majors with a very reasonable 26.6% whiff% and 25.8% K%. He’s put up high walk rates his entire career and he’s also very fast with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. He’s almost a flawless prospect. I say “almost,” because he’s struggled vs. lefties in his career, but he’s still very young, so improvement is almost certainly coming, and it’s also a testament to how badly he decimates righties. 2023 Projection: 82/25/85/.262/.347/.473/14 Prime Projection: 106/32/102/.278/.383/.518/16

2) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.7 – Gunnar vs. Carroll is like Witt vs. Julio all over again. Julio pulled into the clear lead this year, but you were happy with either and their values could swing back and forth their entire careers. Gunnar and Carroll are on that same path. Arizona pushed Carroll all the way up to Double-A to start the year and he responded with pure across the board domination (166 wRC+ with 20 steals in 58 games). Triple-A didn’t slow him down much at all (135 wRC+ with 11 steals in 33 games), and then last but certainly not least, he kept it going in the majors, slashing .260/.330/.500 with 4 steals, 2 homers, and a 27%/7% K%/BB% in 32 games. He’s the fastest man in baseball with a 30.7 ft/sec sprint speed. His 85.8 MPH EV and .293 xwOBA isn’t optimal, and it’s the reason I have Gunnar as the #1 prospect in baseball, but I wouldn’t harp on that too much considering the guy literally had only 42 professional games under his belt coming into this year. Carroll is setting up to be an elite fantasy player. 2023 Projection: 81/18/65/.256/.332/.430/24 Prime Projection: 103/23/82/.276/.362/.474/33

3) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.1 – Chourio is on that Acuna/Tatis superstar path, where they didn’t necessarily put up elite plate approach numbers on the come up, but they were so young for the level and the talent is so huge it doesn’t really matter. Chourio had a generational type season, making it all the way to Double-A as an 18 year old to close out the year. Milwaukee knew they had something special, skipping him right over stateside rookie ball, and they were proven right with him destroying Single-A with a 160 wRC+. He then went to High-A and actually improved his K% with it dropping 6.2 percentage points to 21.8%. He got eaten up in 6 games at Double-A with a 42.3% K%, but I wouldn’t even blink an eye at that. He’s an electric ballplayer with a lightning quick, powerful swing to go along with at least plus speed. Now is the time in a superstar’s career where dynasty mistakes are made. Don’t sell Chourio for anything less than an elite return. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 98/29/96/.276/.351/.502/16

4) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.3 – Elly De La Cruz might still be a high risk, high reward prospect, but in 2022 the risk got a whole lot less, and the reward got a whole lot more. He put up one of the those stupid good seasons in the minors, slashing .304/.359/.586 with 28 homers, 47 steals, and a 30.8%/7.8% K%/BB% in 120 games split between High-A and Double-A. He ripped up both levels, and most importantly, he didn’t let his K% skyrocket at Double-A. He’s currently playing in the pitcher’s haven Dominican Winter League, which is a grown man’s league (he’s about 8 years younger than average), and it’s great sign that he’s running a 26.7%/15.8% K%/BB% in 101 PA. It sure seems like he will be able to continue to improve the plate approach rather than it going in the opposite direction. The numbers he can potentially put up at Great American Ballpark are scary. 2023 Projection: 32/11/35/.232/.294/.433/12 Prime Projection: 87/30/98/.250/.331/.503/30

5) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 21.11 – Volpe got off to a rough start at Double-A with a .647 OPS and 24% K% in his first 37 games, but he came alive after that, slashing .286/.374/.536 with 13 homers, 26 steals, and a 14.4%/10.7% K%/BB% in 72 games. He does it all with a mature plate approach, plus game power, and plus stolen base ability. Despite the 17.7% K% at Double-A on the season, he still hit only .251 because of an extreme 56.9% flyball percentage. If the balls stay dead, it could be an issue because he isn’t a huge raw power guy at 5’11”, 180 pounds. He also struggled when he got the call to Triple-A with his K% spiking to 30.3%, and putting up a 91 wRC+ in 22 games. The profile isn’t flawless, but he has a super fantasy friendly skillset, and he was a 21 year old in the upper minors, so further refinement is surely coming. 2023 Projection: 38/10/35/.236/.316/.421/12 Prime Projection: 89/26/88/.267/.341/.473/21

6) Jordan Walker STL, 3B/OF, 20.11 – Nobody smashes the ball as hard as the 6’5”, 220 pound Walker. One thing we don’t have to worry about is him getting to the majors and putting up like an 84 MPH EV. He’s gonna hit it hard. He was a 20 year old at Double-A and ripped 19 homers with 31 doubles in 119 games, good for a 128 wRC+. He then wrecked the AFL with 5 homers, 6 doubles, and a .925 OPS in 21 games. He has some swing and miss in his game, but it’s far from the danger zone with a 21.6%/10.8% K%/BB%, and he has plus speed with 22 steals, although considering his size, you might not want to count on him majorly in that category. He started to transition to the OF, which gives him a path to playing time with Arenado locked in at 3B. 2023 Projection: 42/12/47/.251/.326/.461/7 Prime Projection: 92/33/105/.267/.346/.513/12

7) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 20.8 – Lawlar left everyone from his 2021 FYPD class in the dust in 2022. He slashed .303/.401/.509 with 16 homers, 39 steals, and a 25.1%/12.4% K%/BB% in 100 games split between 3 levels (A, A+, AA). He only had a 65 wRC+ in 20 games at Double-A but he jacked 4 homers and his plate approach didn’t completely collapse or anything (28.9%/10.3%). It was impressive he made it all the way to Double-A at all. He then destroyed the AFL with a .997 OPS in 11 games. He has a smooth and simple righty swing that is geared for power and average to go along with plus speed. He’s an elite prospect. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 92/24/86/.270/.348/.470/26

8) James Wood WAS, OF, 20.6 – Wood was one of my top 2022 FYPD targets and I was able to scoop him in my 18 team First Year Player Draft that I broke down last off-season on Patreon. He surpassed even my expectations as he played like a man amongst boys at 6’7”, 240 pounds, slashing .313/.420/.536 with 12 homers, 20 steals, and a 21.6%/14.4% K%/BB% in 76 games at Single-A. He absolutely smashes the ball and he proved his hit tool isn’t a major red flag, to say the least, it might actually be an asset. Wood is a unicorn athlete in the mold of an Aaron Judge and Oneil Cruz. He’s in the “untouchable” category for me. I’m not trading him. ETA: 2024/25 Prime Projection: 88/28/93/.262/.355/.513/14

9) Miguel Vargas LAD, 3B, 23.4 – Vargas made his MLB debut in 2022 and while he only put up a .455 OPS in 50 PA, there is nothing I love more than seeing rookies hit the ball hard. He had a well above average 89.7/94.1 MPH AVG/FB EV. He’s also much faster than advertised with a 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed which in the top 6% of the league. He had no trouble lifting the ball with a 25.7 degree launch angle and has no swing and miss issues with an average 24.3% whiff%. His elite plate approach at Triple-A (14.6%/13.7% K%/BB%) shows better days are likely ahead there too. Speaking of Triple-A, he slashed .304/.304/.511 with 17 homers and 16 steals in 113 games. He’s currently the favorite to be LA’s starting 3B in 2023, and the numbers indicate this guy has star potential. 2023 Projection: 72/21/75/.258/.327/.445/11 Prime Projection: 93/27/87/.272/.345/.483/15

10) Zac Veen COL, OF, 21.4 – It’s a mistake to think more power isn’t coming for Veen. And maybe a lot more. He’s a skinny 6’4” with an explosive lefty swing that is a thing of beauty. He’s guaranteed to put up legit power numbers when he grows into his frame. It reminds me of what I predicted in February 2022 about my #9 prospect, Miguel Vargas, when people were fading him because of his low EV numbers in my Predicting the 2023 Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects: “Vargas’ exit velocity numbers will increase, and the hardhit data will catch up to the surface power numbers, rather than the other way around. I’m hesitant to cap a young prospects power potential just because they don’t put up grown man exit velocities in the minors. It’s almost like people forgot power is often the last thing to come for prospects, especially ones who don’t sell out for it and have really strong contact numbers and plate approaches.” Vargas EV numbers looked damn good in his MLB debut this year. The power is coming for Veen too, and when it does, it will be combined with plus speed and a strong plate approach. That is star potential playing at Coors Field. He did struggle in his callup to Double-A (42 wRC+ with a 29.8% K% in 34 games) after handling his business at High-A (126 wRC+ with a 22.5%/12.% K%/BB% and 50 steals in 92 games), but a ton of super talented 20 year olds struggled considerably at Double-A this year, so I wouldn’t let it completely tank your opinion of him. There is still more work to be done, but I’m willing to stay patient for it, and it creates a buying opportunity this off-season that will likely disappear very quickly into 2023. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 93/28/91/.273/.345/.492/17

11) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.2 – It felt like everyone was just waiting for Dominguez to fail, the ole build em up so we can tear em down, but Dominguez refused to blink. He’s now officially living up to the hype with a big 2022, slashing .273/.376/.461 with 16 homers, 37 steals, and a 24.2%/13.6% K%/BB% in 120 games mostly at Single-A and High-A. He actually performed better at High-A with a 146 wRC+ and 18.5% K%, and he even made it Double-A for 5 games and wasn’t overmatched with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 5/3 K/BB (despite a .467 OPS). His tools are still big and back up the numbers with plus speed and plus power. If he keeps this up at Double-A as a 20 year old, he’ll be in the mix for #1 fantasy prospect in the game very quickly into 2023. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/28/93/.261/.345/.491/18

12) Druw Jones ARI, OF, 19.4 – Selected 2nd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Jones has that classic tall and projectable build that screams upside, and he has elite bloodlines with Andruw Jones being his father. He has near elite speed (6.31 60 yard dash) and truly elite bat speed (99.42 percentile-besting some marks put up by bat speed monster Harry Ford last year). His power has also exploded this year, with him launching some homers that blew up on Twitter (Will Hoefer). He hurt his shoulder during BP before he was able to debut and underwent surgery to repair it, but I dropped Lawlar from the #1 slot in my first year player draft rankings last year after his shoulder injury, and I’m not making the same mistake with Jones ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 93/30/104/.274/.355/.515/20

13) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.4 – Baseball is starting to feel like it is a hereditary monarchy, where all star games are passed down based on bloodlines like it’s the 1300’s. Jackson is the son of Matt, commander of the Armies of the North, General of the Felix Legions and loyal servant to the true emperor, Marcus Aurelius. Father to a murdered son. Husband to a murdered wife. And I will have my vengeance, in this life or the ne … my bad, lost myself there 🙂 … Like many plus bloodline kids, Jackson is an advanced hitter, and he combines that with plus athleticism and a plus power/speed combo. He truly wields the bat like it’s a samurai sword, gracefully killing the ball with a smooth and powerful lefty swing. He stepped right into pro ball and was far too advanced for rookie ball (220 wRC+ with a 6.1%/30.3% K%/BB% in 8 rookie ball games) before performing well in 12 games at Single-A (130 wRC+ with a 17.5%/26.3% K%/BB%). Druw Jones and Holliday are in a tier of their own on my First Year Player Draft Rankings. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 96/25/88/.278/.357/.491/14

14) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 23.5 – Rodriguez is my #1 pitching prospect in baseball and is a good bet to break camp with the team. He really shouldn’t be considered a prospect anymore. He should have graduated. But he did what pitching prospects do and missed 3 months with a lat strain. He was a bit rusty when he returned in September with a 4.12 ERA and 29/14 K/BB in 19.2 IP. He had a 2.09 ERA with a 80/14 K/BB in 56 IP at Triple-A before going down with the injury. When completely healthy he has plus control of a devastating 4 pitch mix, all of which have the potential to be at least plus. It’s true ace upside.  2023 Projection: 10/3.73/1.22/161 in 150 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.15/1.05/240 in 200 IP

15) Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 19.5 – In a Mock First Year Player Draft last off-season for Baseball Prospectus, I drafted Andrew Painter 21st overall and wrote, “I generally lean toward hitting prospects in dynasty, but I’m not afraid to take a shot on a couple of pitchers. Painter is a big dude who checks a lot of boxes. My plan is to sell him when he hits his peak on prospect lists, and before he goes all Forrest Whitley on us at Triple-A” … but now that Painter has hit his peak on prospect lists, it’s so damn hard to sell. It’s so easy to fall in love with pitching prospects, but some do actually stay healthy and pan out, right? Painter seems like he is going to be one of those that do. He had a silly pitching line of 1.56/0.89/155/25 in 103.2 IP spread across 3 levels (A, A+, AA). He’s 6’7”, 215 pounds with plus control of an upper 90’s fastball, plus slider, potentially plus change, and an average curve. He just seems can’t miss … but if he does miss, my 2021/22 off-season self will just be shaking his head and laughing at me. 2023 Projection: 4/3.79/1.24/63 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.18/1.06/235 in 200 IP

16) Eury Perez MIA, RHP, 20.0 – Perez is a tall drink of water at 6’8”, 220 pounds (interestingly, or not so interestingly, “tall drink of water” was originally used as a derogatory term for a flavorless weakling, but mysteriously evolved into a compliment in the mid 1900’s), and he uses that frame to fire a mid to upper 90’s fastball with an easy, athletic delivery. He combines that with 3 potentially plus secondaries in his changeup, curve, and slider, to go along with plus control. It’s a flawless profile. The production is there too with a 34.1%/8.1% K%/BB% in 75 IP as a 19 year old at Double-A. A rough patch at the end of July (10.64 ERA in 11 IP) marred his end of season ERA at the level (4.08), and it resulted in him hitting the IL with a shoulder issue that kept him out until mid September. It’s a reminder of how risky all pitching prospects are, no matter how can’t miss they seem. 2023 Projection: 3/3.85/1.23/47 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.26/1.08/210 in 180 IP

17) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 20.8 – Tiedemann checks almost every box for a potential young ace. He has prototypical size at 6’4”, 220 pounds, with a nearly side arm lefty delivery that he uses to fire a mid 90’s fastball and 2 devastating secondaries in his slider and change. Minor league hitters had no chance. He put up a pitching line of 2.17/0.86/117/29 in 78.2 IP split across 3 levels (A, A+, AA). Maybe the only quibble is that he doesn’t have pinpoint control, but it’s not an issue or anything. He’s the top lefty pitching prospect in the game, and considering Toronto’s relatively depleted organizational pitching depth, don’t be surprised if he gets a ton of MLB innings in 2023.. 2023 Projection: 3/3.88/1.29/54 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.31/1.11/220 in 190 IP

18) Shane Baz TBR, RHP, 23.10 – Baz underwent Tommy John surgery in late September and will miss all of 2023. His elbow problems started in Spring when he underwent arthroscopic surgery. He was able to make it back for a month in June-July, and the stuff was still huge, but he eventually succumbed to the Tommy John. Like Buehler, I would optimally wait until next off-season to target him, but if you’re a rebuilding team he’s a great target. 2023 Projection: OUT Prime Projection: 13/3.38/1.09/198 in 170 IP

19) Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 21.4 – Alvarez is a 5’10”, 233 pound ball of muscle who walloped 27 homers in 112 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He then got a cup of coffee, or more like a sip of coffee in the majors and it took him only 14 PA to get his first MLB dinger. He had a 101.5 MPH FB/LD EV in that obviously very small sample, but it drives home the point that Alvarez has near elite power potential, especially for a catcher. He has some swing and miss in his game (24.8% K%), but he’s an OBP machine with a 14.1% BB%. Adley is the darling of the catcher world right now, but Alvarez’s superior over the fence power could easily make him the more valuable catcher not too far into the future. The Mets starting catcher job is wide open for the taking at the moment, but it seems they want him to get more defensive seasoning before handing the reins over to him. 2023 Projection: 47/20/61/.240/.331/.457/2 Prime Projection: 84/33/96/.254/.361/.520/3

20) Daniel Espino CLE, RHP, 22.3 – Espino was on his way to an insane season before falling off the face of the earth. He had a 2.45 ERA with a 35/4 K/BB in 18.1 IP at Double-A in April and then he never pitched again. It started as a knee issue and then turned into a shoulder issue too. Cleveland has kept the injury information very close to the vest so it’s unclear how serious the injuries are, but it was obviously serious enough that it ended his season. The stuff is so nasty with a 5 pitch mix led by an upper 90’s fastball and plus slider, that I would hesitate to sell low on him based on the mysterious injury risk. He has the upside to be a true fantasy ace and he’s knocking on the door of the bigs. Give me all the risk. 2023 Projection: 3/3.83/1.30/65 in 60 IP Prime Projection:  13/3.41/1.19/195 in 165 IP

21) Ezequiel Tovar COL, SS, 21.8 – In yet another testament to Colorado’s odd prospect developmental strategy, to put it nicely, Tovar went down with a hip/groin injury on June 29th at Double-A, and Colorado decided it would be best to have him return directly to Triple-A on September 15th before rushing him to the majors after just 5 games at that level. It’s almost as if they had a preset plan for Tovar’s season which they didn’t adjust at all based on what was actually happening. Regardless, Tovar is a good enough prospect to overcome Colorado’s brain trust. He’s not the type to jump off the screen, but he has a plus hit tool with developing power and base stealing skills. He slashed .319/.387/.540 with 14 homers, 17 steals, and a 66/27 K/BB in 71 games at mostly Double-A. I’m not sure the power/speed numbers will pop as much in the majors, but Coors should juice his best skill, batting average, and the SS job is his for the taking. 2023 Projection: 72/16/64/.261/.317/.402/13 Prime Projection: 86/22/71/.278/.332/.434/15

22) Kyle Manzardo TBR, 1B, 22.9 – I nicknamed Manzardo “Italian Lunch” in my in-season Dynasty Rundowns for a reason, because if you liked Italian Breakfast (Vinnie P), you’re going to love the next Italian meal (Manzardo). Like Vinnie, Manzardo has an elite plate approach with plus power. He slashed .327/.426/.617 with 22 homers and a 65/59 K/BB in 93 games split between High-A and Double-A. He barely dropped off at Double-A with 9 homers and a 148 wRC+ in 30 games. His path to playing time isn’t crystal clear with Tampa’s never ending depth (Aranda, Mead, and more), but that’s just the game with Tampa. If he produces when he gets his shot, they will find a spot for him. 2023 Projection: 19/5/23/.268/.334/.447/0 Prime Projection: 86/27/91/.281/.363/.488/1

23) Royce Lewis MIN, SS, 23.10 – I named Lewis a to player target last off-season, imploring you to buy the dip coming off a torn ACL. Now it’s deja vu all over again with Lewis once again down with a torn ACL, and once again I’m imploring you to buy the dip. He was in the midst of fully living up to his 1st pick overall hype, majorly improving his plate approach with a 20.9%/11.8% K%/BB% in 34 games at Triple-A. His power took a step forward as well with 5 homers and he maintained his plus speed with 12 steals. He quickly got called up to the majors and impressed with a 90.7 MPH EV, 12.2% K% and 146 wRC+ in 41 PA before going down with the injury in late May. I can’t deny that a 2nd torn ACL in the same knee is concerning, but Lewis has youth, and athleticism to spare on his side. He was blowing up to such a high level that I think downgrading Lewis too much based on the injury risk would be a mistake. 2023 Projection: 33/8/28/.258/.319/.423/5 Prime Projection: 84/24/82/.273/.335/.463/13

24) Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 23.3 – Casas is an OBP machine. He has a career .374 OBP in 284 minor league games and then he put up a .358 OBP with a 20% BB% in his 95 PA MLB debut. In an OBP league, he has a chance to be a real difference maker. It’s not so cut and dry in a 5×5 BA league. He’s never hit for high BA’s in the minors (career .269 BA) and he hit .197 (.193 xBA) in the majors. He’s a huge man with huge raw power, but he’s never really put up monster home run totals (11 homers in 72 Triple-A games). He doesn’t sell out for power. Boston’s hitter’s park should juice up all of his numbers, and I like Casas a lot regardless of league type, but I might curb your enthusiasm a little bit in a 5×5 BA. 2023 Projection: 78/24/81/.249/.334/.462/1 Prime Projection: 89/29/94/.263/.368/.510/2

25) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.0 – Armstrong had the power breakout I predicted in my Predicting the 2023 Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects from last off-season, writing, “Armstrong will not only pick up where he left off before he underwent shoulder surgery, he will show power potential many people doubt he has.” He ended up jacking 16 homers in 101 games split between Single-A and High-A. His speed wasn’t undersold either as he nabbed 32 bases. His plus CF defense will get him on the field, he has a good feel to hit, plus speed, and developing power. That is a beautiful fantasy profile. He’s not a finished product as his plate approach took a step back at the more age appropriate High-A with a mediocre 24%/4.9% K%/BB% in 63 games, but he could explode to elite prospect status if he performs in the upper minors in 2023. There is still a small buy window. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/18/66/.273/.335/.431/26

26) Hunter Brown HOU, RHP, 24.8 – Houston still has a full rotation even with Verlander leaving, but Brown will inevitably get his shot eventually, and I have no doubt he will thrive when he does. He throws a 96.6 MPH fastball that put up a .167 BA against in his 20.1 IP MLB debut, to go along with a plus slider (.246 xwOBA) and curve (.167 xwOBA). It led to a 0.89 ERA and 22/7 K/BB. He dominated at Triple-A too with a 2.55 ERA and 31.5%/10.6% K%/BB% in 106 IP. He’s likely a mid rotation fantasy starter as is, and if he can improve his control and/or his splitter/changeup, he has legitimate top of the rotation upside, especially in Houston’s pitching factory. He’s a major off-season target as he doesn’t get the hype that other top pitching prospects receive. 2023 Projection: 6/3.85/1.28/95 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.55/1.23/190 in 175 IP

27) Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 24.0 – Miller is 6’5”, 220 pounds with ace level stuff. He throws a fastball that sits in the upper 90’s, a filthy upper 80’s MPH changeup that gets about 10 MPH separation from the fastball, and 2 plus breaking balls in his slider and curve. His 4.25 ERA in 112.1 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A was surprisingly underwhelming considering the stuff. Part of it is because his fastball is relatively hittable, and while he doesn’t have major control problems, he’s no Greg Maddux. The other part of it is likely bad luck as his 30.5%/8.1% K%/BB% and 3.47 xFIP at Double-A looks much better than the 4.45 ERA he put up at the level. He has ace upside, and with the Dodgers’ pitching development prowess, mid-rotation might be his floor. 2023 Projection: 5/3.85/1.26/82 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.48/1.18/202 in 180 IP

28) Curtis Mead TBR, 3B, 22.6 – Mead is a safe bet to be a very good MLB hitter, but there are a few snafu’s keeping me from going too crazy for him. He’s not a good defensive player, which could be a problem with Tampa’s never ending depth. He’s not a huge base stealer and he has a line drive approach, so he might not put up huge power/speed numbers. His season also ended with a sore elbow, which I wouldn’t be too concerned about, but it is one more thing to tack on. I don’t mean to sound the alarm bells, because I do like him a ton. He hits the ball very hard, he has an excellent plate approach with an 18.1%/10.9% K%/BB%, and he crushed the upper minors with a 146 wRC+ at Double-A and 129 wRC+ at Triple-A. Carlos Correa over the last few years could be a good ceiling comp offensively. 2023 Projection: 26/7/29/.265/.327/.433/2 Prime Projection: 91/24/86/.282/.351/.473/5

29) Noelvi Marte CIN, SS, 21.5 – There is nothing scouts hate more than when players start to fill out before they want them to fill out, and I think scouts overestimate their ability to predict when players will lose their athleticism in general. Having said that, Marte filled out in 2022 and he’s definitely starting to look more like a thick, power hitting corner infielder than a wiry strong SS. It’s going to hurt his ranking on real life lists, but I would be careful about discounting him too much for fantasy. He has big time power (19 homers in 115 games at High-A), speed (23 steals), and while his hit tool isn’t great, he has a strong plate approach (20.1%/11.3% K%/BB%). He’s not a finished product, and I wouldn’t expect huge steal totals, but he can be mighty dangerous in the friendly confines of Great American Ballpark. He wouldn’t be untouchable for me (I recently traded him away in my 12 teamer for Cristian Javier), but I would need a very exciting win now piece to deal him. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 84/27/89/.263/.338/.484/12

30) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 20.4 – One look at Mayer’s controlled and explosive lefty swing really says it all. He used that swing to dominate Single-A in every facet of the game (150 wRC+ in 66 games), and then mostly did the same to close out the season at High-A (127 wRC+ in 25 games). His 25.2% K% is maybe slightly higher than you would like to see, but he mitigated that with a 16% BB%, and he was also a perfect 17 for 17 on the bases. He’s not a burner, but with the new stolen bases rules coming to the majors, maybe he’ll be able to nab more than we are expecting. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 94/25/87/.271/.363/.484/10

31) Oswald Peraza NYY, SS/2B, 22.10 – Like Volpe, Peraza started the year cold with a .583 OPS and 25.6% in his first 46 games at Triple-A before turning it around. He slashed .316/.382/.560 with 14 homers, 22 steals, and a 21.4% K% in his final 53 games at the level. He got called up to the majors in September and thrived, slashing .306/.404/.429 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 15.8%/10.5% K%/BB% in 57 PA. Statcast backs up the numbers with a well above average .343 xwOBA and 28.9 ft/sec sprint speed. The one red flag is his 81.6/84.0 MPH AVG/FB EV. That is quite low on 40 batted balls. It’s a small sample and he obviously has more power than that, but the power numbers he put up in the minors in 2021-22 could be misleading for what he will do in the majors. 2023 Projection: 58/14/59/.246/.303/.400/16 Prime Projection: 81/21/77/.269/.327/.441/22

32) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.7 – Carter was chugging along with a very good season at High-A, slashing .287/.388/.476 with 11 homers, 26 steals, and a 16.8%/13.2% K%/BB% in 100 games, and then he closed out the year with a bang at Double-A, slashing .429/.536/.714 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 6/5 K/BB in 6 games. His elite plate approach is made even more impressive by how  young he has been at every level he’s played at. He has plus speed, and at 6’4”, 190 pounds, he should naturally grow into more power, although his short and quick lefty swing is geared more for line drives. He could be a difference maker in OBP leagues, and in 5×5 BA he’s setting up to be a solid across the board type. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 89/20/77/.276/.365/.449/15

33) Emmanuel Rodriguez MIN, OF, 20.1 – I nicknamed Rodriguez Baby Bonds in the early season Dynasty Baseball Rundowns for a reason. He’s an OBP monster with a 28.6% BB% and .492 OBP, to go along with a plus power (9 homers) and speed (11 steals) in 49 games at Single-A. Granted he doesn’t have nearly Bonds’ hit tool with a 26.1% K%, but 3 outta 4 ain’t bad. In an OBP league, I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say he has elite upside. His season ended early when he tore his meniscus sliding into a base, but in my professional opinion a meniscus tear isn’t as bad as an ACL tear. I wouldn’t let the injury scare you off him too much. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 88/26/82/.251/.357/.485/12

34) Tink Hence STL, RHP, 20.8 – Say hello to the 2024 top pitching prospect in baseball. Hence was treated with kid gloves in 2022, never going over 4 IP, but he checked literally every other box. His stuff is straight filthy with 4 potentially plus pitches (mid 90’s fastball, curve, slider, change), he has an extremely athletic delivery with insane arm speed that reminds me a bit of Pedro Martinez, and his numbers were lights out with a pitching line of 2.16/0.96/81/15 in 52.1 IP at Single-A. He’s certainly getting plenty of hype right now, but it’s going to look like nothing compared to the hype explosion that’s coming in 2023. I was just able to nab him at 44th overall in the Toolshed Prospect Mock with other prospect writers/podcasters, so I think his price could still be relatively reasonable this off-season. He’s a buy high. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 14/3.29/1.09/205 in 180 IP

35) Kyle Harrison SFG, LHP, 21.8 – Harrison is almost guaranteed to be an impact fantasy starter because this guy is going to rack up K’s no matter what. He had a stupid 50% K% in 29 IP at High-A (1.55 ERA) and a 36.4% K% in 84 IP at Double-A (3.11 ERA) on the back of an elite fastball/slider combo from a 3 quarters lefty delivery. He mixes in a legitimate changeup as well. The only question is how high his WHIP will get on the MLB level, because his control is still knocking on the door of the danger zone with an 11.2% BB% at Double-A. It’s not so bad to get very concerned, but it’s bad enough to keep him from ascending to the true elite pitching prospect tier. From a numbers standpoint, Blake Snell is not the worst comp. 2023 Projection: 3/3.88/1.33/34 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.41/1.25/191 in 165 IP

36) Josh Jung TEX, 3B, 25.2 – Jung returned from shoulder surgery in late July and he must have been rusty because his plate approach was uncharacteristically horrific. He put up a 28.3%/3.8% K%/BB% in 23 games at Triple-A and a 38.2%/3.9% K%/BB% in 26 games in his MLB debut. It’s so out of pocket from the rest of his career. He had a 22.2%/9.1% K%/BB% in 78 games in the upper minors in 2021, so I’m inclined to cut him some slack. Shoulder injuries can sometimes sap power, but he was just fine in that category, jacking 9 homers in 31 minor league games and 5 homers in 26 MLB games. His 85.5 MPH EV and .287 xwOBA wasn’t great, but there was no guarantee he was even going to play in 2022 considering he underwent surgery in late February, so everything should look much better after a normal off-season and as he gets further away from the injury. 2023 Projection: 70/25/83/.252/.326/.462/3 Prime Projection: 84/29/91/.268/.343/.497/3

37) Brett Baty NYM, 3B, 23.5 – There is little doubt that the 6’3”, 210 pound lefty Baty is going to be a very good real life hitter. He smokes the ball with a 91.1 MPH EV and he has an excellent plate approach with a 24.8%/11.7% K%/BB%, leading to a .943 OPS in 95 games at mostly Double-A. He got called up to the majors and while he only put up a .586 OPS in 11 games, his .332 xwOBA was much better and a 19% K% is a good sign his K% isn’t going to explode. It’s a line drive approach (10 degree launch) with below average speed (26.8 ft/sec sprint), making him a very safe bet to be an impact bat, but likely without monster upside in a 5×5 BA league. He tore the UCL in his thumb in late August which required surgery, but he’ll be good to go for 2023, and with Correa not signing, the path to playing time is much more open now. 2023 Projection: 51/15/54/.253/.332/.440/2 Prime Projection: 84/25/86/.267/.349/.472/2

38) Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 23.0 – Cowser’s hit tool got exposed this year, putting up a 28.4% K% at High-A, 25.4% K% at Double-A, and 30.6% K% at Triple-A. It’s a little concerning considering that was supposed to be his best skill, but it’s not like he’s chopped liver everywhere else. He walked a ton with a 15% BB%, and he displayed an above average power/speed combo with 19 homers and 18 steals in 138 games. Even with the high strikeout rates he still put up a .278 BA. He showed more risk than optimal in 2022, but it was still a positive year overall with a .874 OPS. His strong across the board profile remains intact. 2023 Projection: 20/4/18/.248/.319/.405/4 Prime Projection: 85/20/77/.264/.343/.442/15

39) Robert Hassell WAS, OF, 21.8 – Hassell is becoming quite the divisive prospect, and it all comes down to his upside. His groundball rates were over 50% and he hit only 11 homers in 112 games split between High-A and Double-A. He’s fast, but he’s not an absolute burner, stealing only 1 bag in 27 games at Double-A (23 steals in 85 games at High-A). He has a potentially plus hit tool, and while a 19.9% K% at High-A is good, it’s not close to being elite, and it jumped to 28.7% at Double-A. He doesn’t have that one truly impressive tool. Having said that, the guy is just a damn good all around ballplayer, and there is still room to pack on muscle to his 6’2” frame. You don’t have to squint all that hard to see a future where he goes 20/20 with a good BA and high OBP hitting atop Washington’s lineup. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 87/18/72/.273/.348/.425/18

40) Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 22.0 – Bradley is a similar pitching prospect to what Logan Gilbert and George Kirby were. He heavily relies on an at least plus, mid 90’s fastball which he has plus control over, but the secondaries aren’t really standout. He’s also not as big as Gilbert and Kirby, which I don’t like to harp on, but it does factor in. He destroyed Double-A with a 1.70 ERA and 88/18 K/BB in 74.1 IP before taking a small step back at Triple-A with a 3.66 ERA and 53/15 K/BB in 59 IP. If his secondaries take a big jump, he can be a fantasy ace, but he’s more likely to settle into that 2/3 area. 2023 Projection: 3/3.83/1.23/47 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.41/1.08/176 in 170 IP

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2023 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS (coming tomorrow or Monday at the latest)
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS w/ Strategy & Target Guide
-All-In-One Rankings Spreadsheet
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 305 SP//Top 282 OF//Top 151 SS//Top 115 3B//Top 105 2B//Top 95 1B//TOP 68 C//Top 64 RP
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-DYNASTY TEAM REPORTS FOR EVERY TEAM (Top 10+ Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
-UPCOMING: Position by Position Target Series, Top 600 OBP Rankings, Top 600 Points/6+Cats/OPS “Universal” Rankings, Predicting the 2024 Top 50 Prospects Rankings that doubles as a Bold Predictions article, and much more

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (6/20/22)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (6/20/22):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED JUNE 2022 TOP 350 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-UPDATED JUNE 2022 TOP 445 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 16 2023 FYPD RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

Juan Soto WASH, OF, 23.9 – Cranked his 14th homer on a 1 for 5 day but is still “struggling” with only an .807 OPS. This is deja vu from last year where he had a .851 OPS in the first half before going off in the 2nd half. The underlying numbers are elite with a .413 xwOBA, so the bonkos 2nd half is inevitable this year too. If this even opens up the tiniest sliver of a buying opportunity, I would be all over that, but clearly any dynasty owner worth their salt won’t price him any lower. Let me know if anyone sells low on Soto because I will personally show up at their house and collect all of their salt. They don’t deserve it.

Gleyber Torres NYY, SS, 25.8 – 3 for 5 with a double and a homer. Over his last 21 games he’s slashing .321/.369/.718 with 8 homers, 1 steal, and an 18/5 K/BB. I kept the faith on Torres this off-season, finishing his blurb in the Top 1,000 by writing, “Gleyber is starting to hit those man muscle years and the power should only tick up from here. I love him as a trade target this off-season.” I ranked him 78th overall on the Updated Top 445 June Dynasty Baseball Rankings that hit my Patreon last week2018-19 Gleyber is back.

Masyn Winn STL, SS/RHP, 20.2 – Power is the final step to go full breakout, and it seems to be happening as Winn destroyed his 4th homer in 23 games at Double-A all the way to the parking lot. He already cracked my Top 50 in the Top 350 June Prospects Rankingsand the arrow continues to point up.

Bryan Ramos CHW, 3B/2B, 20.3 – One of my favorite prospects in the minors, Ramos obliterated his 11th homer of the season so hard that it drew audible oooohhs and aaahhs from the crowd. He’s been red hot with 7 homers, a 10/8 K/BB and a .961 OPS in his last 19 games at High-A.

Quinn Priester PIT, RHP, 21.6 – Priester returned from an oblique injury a couple weeks ago and made his first start at Double-A yesterday, going 3 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER and a 3/0 K/BB. He throws a diverse pitch mix and the fastball has been sitting in the mid 90’s. The eye test has always looked better than the numbers with Priester, and I’ve decided to split the difference between the two when valuing him.

Gavin Williams CLE, RHP, 22.10 – Williams made his 2nd start at Double-A and went 3 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 6/2 K/BB. The fastball is way too advanced for minor league hitters, and the breaking balls were so refined in this one that he pitched the entire game with his pinky up.

Jack Suwinski PIT, OF, 23.10 – Jack jacked 3 homers yesterday and Jack’s now jacked 11 homers on the year. He has a .339 wOBA with a .339 xwOBA. This guy jacks.

Tyler O’Neill STL, OF, 27.0 – 3 for 4 with a double. O’Neill returned from the IL a new man, slashing .354/.385/.521 with 2 homers, 3 steals, and a 12/3 K/BB in 12 games. Unfortunately he left the game with hamstring tightness, so we are back in wait and see mode.

Nick Pivetta BOS, RHP, 29.6 – 7 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 10/1 K/BB vs STL. He dominated with the fastball, throwing it 56% of the time with a 36% whiff% and 84.3 MPH EV against. Fantasy managers have been riding the Nick Pivetta rollercoaster for years now, so it’s hard to fully buy in, and the 3.31 ERA is much better than the 4.02 xERA. He’s solid, but I wouldn’t expect him to keep this up.

Juan Yepez STL, 1B/3B/OF, 24.4 – Drilled a pinch hit 114.4 MPH homer. That basically describes Yepez’ value all right there. He can rake, but playing time is an issue as he’s a bad defensive player with a negative 6 defensive value. It’s such a pain trying to figure out the correct ranking of a guy like Yepez, because if he gets the playing time his ranking will look silly low, and if he doesn’t his ranking will look silly high. There is no in between.

Jerar Encarnacion MIA, OF, 24.8 – Encarnacion made his MLB debut and it didn’t take long for him to show off the skills, crushing his first homer with a K on a 1 for 4 day. He hit the ball hard all day and starts his MLB career with a 99.6 MPH EV. The BA is going to be an issue with a 30.2% K% at Triple-A, but at 6’4”, 220 pounds, he’s going to mash.

Michael Harris ATL, OF, 21.2 – Checking in at #112 on the Updated Top 445 Dynasty Rankings, Harris launched his 3rd homer off Kyle Hendricks on a 105.4 MPH shot. Considering he’s 21 years old jumping straight from Double-A, he’s had a damn exciting MLB debut, slashing .321/.346/.538 with 3 homers, 2 steals, and a 18/3 K/BB in 21 games.

Buddy Kennedy ARI, 3B, 23.10 – Kennedy made his MLB debut last week and he got on the board with his first homer yesterday on a 394 foot bomb. He’s looked mature at the plate so far in 3 games with a 18.2%/9.1% K%/BB% and 1.164 OPS. I ranked Kennedy 693rd overall on my off-season Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings and wrote, “When you watch Kennedy he doesn’t exactly scream upside, but he has baseball bloodlines and it definitely shows because he looks mature beyond his years at the plate. He vaguely reminded me of Jhonny Peralta a little.” He’s sneaky good.

Curtis Mead TBR, 3B, 21.7 – 2 for 4 with 2 homers at Double-A. Mead’s plus hit tool has transferred to the upper minors with a 18.2%/10% K%/BB% and .305 BA in 50 games, and now the power is coming too with 6 homers in his last 15 games. He has an unorthodox, Statue of Liberty like batting stance that you can’t help but love. He has a chance to be really damn good.

Blaze Jordan BOS, 3B, 19.5 – It was only a matter of time before the power started to come, and it came hard yesterday with 2 homers. He has all fields power, with one to the pull side and one going the opposite way. His contact rates have been excellent all year with a 17.3% K% in 57 games at Single-A. He’s laying the foundation to be one of the top power hitting prospects in the game in a year or so.

Andrew Heaney LAD, LHP, 30.10 – Heaney returned from a shoulder injury and he picked the breakout up right where he left off, going 5 IP with 5 hits, 1 ER, and a 7/1 K/BB. The fastball averaged 92.1 MPH, which is up 0.6 MPH from his season average, and he put up a 31% whiff% overall. He now has a 0.59 ERA with a 38.1% whiff% in 15.1 IP on the season. Heaney is yet another player I hit on in my early February Target Series on Patreon, writing, “I liked Heaney a lot going into last year because of above average strikeout and walk rates, but it obviously didn’t materialize. This is a bet on LA’s developmental prowess. If he’s good enough for the Dodgers rotation, he’s good enough for my fantasy squad.” We can’t develop the players as Dynasty owners, so taking the organization into account is a must for us.

Oscar Gonzalez CLE, OF, 24.7 – Gonzalez powered up with the lone run off Heaney, cracking a 395 foot homer off him for his 1st of the year in 22 games. A 1.8 degree launch is why it took this long to get on the board, but a 91.2 MPH EV shows there is more raw power in the tank if he can make adjustments.

Robert Gasser SDP, LHP, 23.2 – 7 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER, 8/1 K/BB at High-A. The 4.10 ERA in 63.2 IP isn’t great, but the 31%/7.8% K%/BB% looks much better. The stuff isn’t huge, making him more of a “crafty lefty” with a back end starter profile.

Gordon Graceffo STL, RHP, 22.3 – 7 IP, 3 hits, 2 ER, 6/0 K/BB at Double-A. The breakout has slowed a little bit a Double-A despite the 2.73 ERA in 29.2 IP. His K% is all the way down to 19.1%. His control has still been otherworldly though with a 1.7% BB%. Here he is painting the black with a 99 MPH fastball.

Everson Pereira NYY, OF, 21.3 – 4 for 7 with 2 doubles. Pereira has been heating up at High-A, slashing .294/.347/.533 with 5 homers, 4 steals, and a 22/8 K/BB in his last 22 games. He had only 1 homer before that, so it’s nice to see him finding his power stroke again after hitting 20 homers in 49 games last year.

Jordan Westburg BAL, SS, 23.3 – Westburg has been excelling since getting the call to Triple-A, going 2 for 3 with a double and steal yesterday, and is now slashing .405/.444/.810 with 3 homers, 2 steals, and a 22.2%/6.7% K%/BB% in 10 games. He’s no Gunnar Henderson, but he can be a solid across the board contributor as a key member of Baltimore’s next winning core.

Jacob Amaya LAD, SS, 23.10 – Amaya was starting to cool off at Double-A, but he must have been getting bored, because he’s exploded after the call to Triple-A. He went 2 for 3 with 2 walks yesterday and now has 2 homers with a 11.1%/11.1% K%/BB% in 6 games. He swings a wickedly dangerous bat, and he continues to grow on me. He hasn’t cracked my Top 100 yet, but that could end up being a mistake.

Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 23.8 – The savoir of Pittsburgh has finally ascended with Cruz getting the call for tonight’s game vs. Chicago. I hope NL Central pitchers enjoyed their Father’s Day yesterday, because their new daddy has arrived.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED JUNE 2022 TOP 350 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-UPDATED JUNE 2022 TOP 445 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 16 2023 FYPD RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com 
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Tampa Bay Rays 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys and talk some team specific strategy for every team to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Tampa Bay Rays 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
A Top 100 Sneak Peek of my 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings with more early releases coming all off-season
-Dynasty Team Reports for every team (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
Positional Dynasty Rankings
-End of Season 2021 Top 466 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
-End of Season 2021 Top 322 Dynasty Prospects Rankings

Hitters

Wander Franco TBR, SS, 21.1 – I ranked Franco 14th overall on my 2021 Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings, writing, “the floor is so high due to that innate hitting ability that he doesn’t have the normal risks associated with prospects.” Kelenic was my #2 overall prospect, but I ranked him 52nd on the dynasty list because he simply didn’t have that elite floor. And that is exactly how it played out in 2021 with Franco putting up a 12% K% en route to a solid MLB debut, slashing .288/.347/.463 with 7 homers and 2 steals in 70 games (he also knocked out 2 homers in 4 playoff games). The underlying skills are there for a homer/steal breakout as he notched a 28.5 ft/sec sprint speed, 88.2 MPH EV and 9.7 degree launch angle. The arrow is only pointing way up from here. 2022 Projection: 101/23/83/.302/.360/.484/11  Prime Projection: 116/31/111/.320/.392/.555/13

Brandon Lowe TBR, OF/2B, 27.9 – Lowe went bonkos in the 2nd half, slashing .289/.376/.638 with 26 homers and 3 steals in 80 games (.689 OPS in first 69 games). He brought his K% all the way down to 21.1% in 67 games post-break (32.2% in 82 games pre-break). The power was never in question, so if those K% gains are real, it takes Lowe to the next level. 2022 Projection: 89/36/95/.263/.355/.519/6

Randy Arozarena TBR, OF, 27.1 – Arozarena went 20/20 on the dot in 2021, but the underlying numbers are a mixed bag. He had a below average .302 xwOBA (.350 wOBA), 32.4% whiff%, and 7.6 degree launch angle. On the other hand, he had an above average exit velocity (89.9 MPH), BB% (9.3%) and sprint speed (28.8 ft/sec). If you can hit it hard, get on base, and run fast, good things generally happen. I’m more excited for the things he can do well than scared off by the things he doesn’t. 2022 Projection: 88/22/75/.268/.347/.462/17

Austin Meadows TBR, OF, 26.11 – As expected, Meadows bounced back from a Covid induced down 2020 with 27 homers and 106 RBI. He brought his K% down 12.3 percentage points to a career best 20.6%, but he still had a low .234 BA, partly because of bad luck (.249 BABIP) and partly because of a high launch angle (21.7 degrees) mixed with a low FB/LD exit velocity (91.9 MPH). Even in his down 2020, his FB/LD EV was 94.2 MPH, so I’m betting on that bouncing back. There is a Max Kepler-ish vibe that is starting to come from Meadows (and I still think Kepler can have that monster year!), so I’m not as high as I once was on him, but he has the plate approach and power skills to put up a truly big season. 2022 Projection: 82/30/95/.259/.338/.482/6

Pitchers

Shane McClanahan TBR, LHP, 24.11 – I love McClanahan as much as anyone. I’ve been touting him all year and put him in my July 1st, 10 Dynasty Baseball Players to Target article (he put up a 2.97 ERA with 80 strikeouts in 72.2 IP after that). But there is no denying that when batters did made contact, they hit him very hard with a 91.7 MPH EV against (bottom 2% of the league) and 45.7% Hardhit% (bottom 6% of league). Most of the damage comes off his 96.7 MPH fastball, and it brings back to mind helpless little league coaches who had nothing else to say but, “the harder it comes in, the farther it goes out,” as some over grown 12 year old blows like 80 MPH fastballs passed everyone. Those hard hit numbers are the reason for the disparity between his 4.57 xERA and 3.23 xFIP. So which xStat will prevail? I’m betting on it landing somewhere in the middle, leaning more toward xFIP because his ability to miss bats (32% whiff%) and throw the ball over the plate (7.2% BB%) are more important skills to me. 2022 Projection: 12/3.67/1.25/178 in 160 IP

Luis Patino TBR, RHP, 22.5 – Patino held his own as a 21 year old in the majors with a pitching line of 4.31/1.27/74/29 in 77.1 IP on the back of his plus fastball/slider combo. His strikeout and walk rates were about average, and he wasn’t able to develop his changeup very much throwing it only 5% of the time, so on the surface the year wasn’t very exciting, but taking age into account, this is him basically establishing his floor. Upside is still high, even if it might take him a couple years to hit it. 2022 Projection: 8/4.02/1.28/145 in 140 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.62/1.19/190 in 170 IP

Tampa Bay Rays Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects

1) Shane Baz TBR, RHP, 22.10 – Baz’ control took two huge steps forward, going from well below average to near elite with a 1.7% BB% at Double-A, 6.2% at Triple-A, and 6.1% in the majors. He sacrificed nothing to do it, throwing an elite 97 MPH fastball that put up 30.4% whiff%. He combines that with two plus breaking balls in his slider (40.7% whiff%) and curve (50% whiff%), while his changeup lags behind. He’s in a two man race with Grayson Rodriguez for the top pitching prospect in baseball. 2022 Projection: 9/3.78/1.20/148 in 130 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.35/1.07/220 in 187 IP

2) Vidal Brujan TBR, 2B/OF, 24.2 – Brujan couldn’t maintain his early season power surge of 7 homers in his first 16 games (12 homers in 103 games at Triple-A), but his power definitely took a step forward this year. He combines that uptick in power with an elite plate approach (15.4%/11.1% K%/BB%) and plus speed (44 for 52 on the bases). He played all over the field (2B, SS, 3B, OF), and Tampa loves to move guys around, so Brujan is setting up to be the ultimate multi-position eligibility player who will see the field almost everyday at peak. 2022 Projection: 48/7/39/.262/.326/.398/16 Prime Projection: 92/14/66/.283/.355/.423/30

3) Josh Lowe TBR, OF, 24.2 – Lowe blew up at Triple-A, slashing .291/.381/.535 with 22 homers, 26 steals (in 26 attempts), and a 26.2%/13% K%/BB% in 111 games. I’ve been high on him since his 2019 breakout because he is a premium athlete at 6’4”, 205 pounds with a plus power/speed combo and high walk rates. Even though his K% remained high, his hit tool took a step forward this year, which is the one thing that could hold him back. 2022 Projection: 23/7/21/.237/.310/.428/6 Prime Projection: 84/24/76/.256/.338/.467/16

4) Curtis Mead TBR, 3B, 21.5 – Mead has baseball bloodlines with his dad playing professional baseball in Australia. His swing reminds me of my stickball swing, staying upright and loose in the box before ripping liners all over the parking lot, er, baseball field. He hits the ball very hard and makes great contact (15.5% K%), and even though his swing is geared for line drives he still hit 15 homers in 104 games at mostly Single-A (163 wRC+ in 47 games) and High-A (117 wRC+ in 53 games). He is now destroying the AFL, slashing .324/.368/.577 with 3 homers in 18 games. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 79/22/85/.276/.332/.457/7

5) Greg Jones TBR, SS, 24.1 – Jones is all about that pure, uncut upside with double plus speed and plus raw power. He knocked 14 homers and was 34 for 36 on the bases in 72 games split between High-A (144 wRC+ in 72 games) and Double-A (60 wRC+ in 16 games). He was a perfect for 7 for 7 on the bases at Double-A, so the stolen base prowess is definitely real. His strikeout rates are in the danger zone (29.2% at High-A and 35% at Double-A), and he’s on the older side, so the risk is very high, but the upside is worth chasing. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 75/16/61/.242/.318/.428/24

6) Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 21.0 – Bradley relies heavily on his plus mid 90’s fastball which he has above average control of and gets plenty of whiffs with. He combines that with a breaking ball that flashes plus, but is still inconsistent, and a lesser used developing changeup. He rolled right through the lower minors with a pitching line of 1.83/0.93/123/31 in 103.1 IP split between Single-A and High-A. Good control of a plus fastball makes him relatively safe, and his ceiling will be determined by how much he can improve his secondaries. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/3.98/1.25/163 in 160 IP

7) Carson Williams TBR, SS, 18.9 – Selected 28th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Williams was one of the youngest players in his class and still stepped right into pro ball and performed well with a 130 wRC+ in 11 games. He has a good feel to hit with quick bat speed, and at 6’2”, 180 pounds more power is definitely coming as he matures. He also has some speed. He’s shaping up to be an above average all category contributor. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 79/22/80/.268/.333/.447/9

8) Heriberto Hernandez TBR, OF, 22.4 – Hernandez is your classic 3 true outcome slugger with a 28.1%/15.3% K%/BB% and 44.2% FB% in 73 games at Single-A. He’s always been old for his level and he isn’t good on defense, so playing time could always be a struggle, especially in Tampa’s stacked organization. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/25/77/.251/.335/.467/4

9) Carlos Colmenarez TBR, SS, 18.3 – A hamate injury limited Colmenarez to 26 games, and he didn’t do much in those games with 0 homers, a 26.3%/7.0% K%/BB% and a 79 wRC+ in the DSL, but it’s too early to go off him. He did manage to lift the ball with a 45.7% FB%, so when the raw power inevitably comes, he won’t have any trouble getting to it in games. He still has that same above average across the board potential which made him a very high priced international signing. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 79/20/76/.270/.330/.440/10

10) Ian Seymour TBR, LHP, 23.4 – An elbow injury delayed the start of Seymour’s season until July and limited him to only 55.1 IP, but he quickly proved too advanced for minor league hitters in his pro debut with a pitching line of 1.95/0.81/87/19 split across 3 levels (A, A+, AAA). He doesn’t have huge stuff but he has above average control of a low 90’s fastball and two potentially plus secondaries in his slider and change. He also mixes in a cutter and curve. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.08/1.29/154 in 155 IP

Just Missed

11) Xavier Edwards TBR, 2B, 22.8

12) Cole Wilcox TBR, RHP, 22.9

13) Seth Johnson TBR, RHP, 23.6

Strategy

Tampa Bay can be a nightmare for fantasy owners. They pull their pitchers early and sometimes they don’t even start their starters, they use them as followers. They also use their entire bench and impressive depth to give plenty of days off to all of their position players. While frustrating, there is a method to their madness. They are trying to put their players in the best position to succeed and stay healthy throughout the season, so you can’t be too mad at them. Regardless, it makes me hesitant to go after their pitchers in quality start leagues, and you can’t count on them to rack up innings for you.

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
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