Posted on by Michael Halpern · 2 Comments

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/22/24)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/22/24):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-APRIL TOP 427 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (4/19/24)
-APRIL TOP 300+ PROSPECTS RANKS COMING NEXT WEEK
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: APRIL MAILBAG COMING WEDNESDAY!
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (4/3/24)
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-SPREADSHEETS

Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 23.7 – “The captain goes down with the ship.” That’s just Maritime Law. Now, I’m no sailor, but as the world’s foremost expert on Fantasy Law, there are some players that you are required to go down with the ship for, and Corbin Carroll is most certainly one of those players. I’ve seen a ton of panic and sell low offers for Carroll, but all of the warning signs could be flashing red, the sirens could be blaring, and you are still legally obligated to not sell low on an established elite dynasty asset like Carroll on April 22nd. And quite frankly, all of the warning signs are far from flashing red. The plate approach has been elite and better than ever with a 13.6%/13.6% K%/BB%, the whiff% is down to 17.3%, and the base running is elite with 8 steals. He’s definitely been unlucky too with a .288 wOBA vs. .328 xwOBA. The one big flashing warning sign is the 84.0 MPH EV, but the 91.0 MPH FB/LD EV and 110.1 Max EV both look much better, so I 100% think that is going to come way up over time. And it’s already starting to come up with a 88.9 MPH EV over his last 8 games. Obviously the shoulder is the big concern, but we haven’t heard anything about the shoulder bothering him, so using that as the reason to sell him seems too speculative. But all of that is besides the point anyway. The point is that Carroll is an established 23 year old beast with a .285/25/54 season already under his belt. This is a player you stay so patient with that the ship could actually be sinking, and you still hold on, but I don’t actually think the ship is sinking here. Hold on for dear life.

Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 25.6 – While we’re on the topic of elite or near elite dynasty assets that I’m not selling low on, let’s talk about Oneil Cruz (along with Jazz and Jordan below). Carroll you would have to still pay up for to acquire, but Cruz, Jazz and Jordan’s prices might be entering a mighty juicy area if their owner is getting frustrated, and I would be all over it. Cruz is struggling with a .587 OPS, but he is still absolutely crushing the ball with a 92.5 MPH EV, and he’s still running with 2 steals despite barely being on base. The 40.2% K% is scary, but his 31.6% whiff% is much lower than that and not far off from what he did last year. That K% is definitely going to come down, and when it does, only good things are going to happen with how hard he crushes the ball. Let’s also give him some leeway to shake the rust off after that very serious injury. He’s on about a 22/15 pace and that’s with him playing very poorly. I’m buying the slow start.

Jazz Chisholm MIA, OF, 26.2 – Jazz is off to a lukewarm start with a .699 OPS, and the perception on him feels lukewarm in general, which makes now a great time to go after him, especially considering there are things to be very excited about in the underlying numbers. For one, the swing and miss is way down with a career best 25.6% whiff% (35.7% in 2023), and the plate approach has been improved as well with a career best 11.4% BB% and 25.1% Chase%. These improvements haven’t hindered his power at all with a beastly 91.1 MPH EV and 15.1% Barrel%. He’s running a ton as well with 4 steals. This is true elite dynasty potential … as long as he stays healthy. It’s 100% fair to ding him for being injury prone, and we saw with Robert and Royce, it can definitely come back to bite you, but I like to take risks in fantasy, and Jazz is a risk worth taking.

Jordan Walker STL, OF, 21.10 – Walker is a 21 year old who improved his Barrel% 5 percentage points to 12.5%, his EV 2.9 MPH to 92.3 MPH, his launch 2.2 degrees to 12.4, his whiff% 2.4% percentage points to 27.6% and his BB% 1.5 percentage points to 9.5%. He’s blowing up … or I should say he should be blowing up, but the OPS sits at a horrific .511 OPS. Remember it’s still only 63 PA though. Wonky stuff happens in 63 PA, and this is definitely wonky. He’s been unlucky with a .304 xwOBA, but beyond being unlucky, the underlying numbers point to a big explosion coming in the near future. Walker is still on that elite dynasty asset journey, and if you can buy in now off the struggles to take that journey with him, I would go for it.

Ralphy Velazquez CLE, 1B, 18.10 – Now that we got The Bad News Bears out of the way, let’s talk about some guys off to legitimately exciting starts, and there are few breakout prospects I’m more excited about than Ralphy. He was a major FYPD target of mine, calling him “the Xavier Isaac of this draft class,” and he’s lived up to my billing of him after another big night at the dish, going 3 for 5 with a double that rocketed off his bat. He’s destroying Single-A as an 18 year old, slashing .375/.448/.688 with 4 homers and a 22.4%/12.1% K%/BB% in 12 games. Cleveland already moved him off catcher to 1B so the beastly bat could shine. He jumped to 339th overall on the updated Top 427 April Dynasty Rankings that hit the Patreon last week, which makes him an easy Top 100 prospect when I update the Top 300 Prospects Rankings next week.

Caden Dana LAA, RHP, 20.4 – Speaking of players moving into my Top 100 Prospects, Dana took a huge jump on those Updated Dynasty Rankings as well, and he backed up that jump with his best outing yet, going 7 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 8/1 K/BB as a 20 year old at Double-A. The camera angle was behind the plate for this one, and I loved the dramatic slow zoom-in from the camera person after every strikeout. A true artist. Dana now has a 1.47 ERA with a 28.4%/4.5% K%/BB% in 18.1 IP, and he has the stuff and build to back it up at 6’4”, 215 pounds with a plus fastball/slider combo. He also throws a curve and change. We might be talking about him as an elite pitching prospect in the not too distant future.

Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 22.11 – Jones demolished his first homer out to deep centerfield and tacked on 2 steals on a 3 for 4 day. He has a 191 wRC+ with a 20/8%/12.5% K%/BB% in 6 games. The improved strikeout rate is huge to see, and he’s lifting the ball more too with a 31.3% GB%. He’s carrying over the impressive spring into Double-A and is now an undisputed elite dynasty prospect. The Unicorn Revolution is in full swing with Wood and Jones ready to join Elly and Cruz.

Alfredo Duno CIN, C, 18.4 – Cincy skipped Duno over stateside rookie ball and threw him into the fire at Single-A as an 18 year old, and he’s responding after hitting his first homer at the level in 10 games. You can see the powerful and athletic swing right there from a 6’2”, 210 pound frame. He’s now slashing .282/.370/.487 with a 26.1%/10.9% K%/BB% and 141 wRC+. He’s been an elite dynasty prospect catcher waiting to happen since he was a high priced international signing, and while he’s not quite there yet, he’s certainly knocking on the door of the Top 100.

Jordan Westburg BAL, 2B/3B, 25.1 – Westburg was one of my top off-season targets, ranking him very high at #149 on the Top 1,000 and writing, “While Gunnar and Adley hog all the attention on the MLB level, and Holliday, Mayo, Basallo etc … hog all the attention on prospect lists, you should sneakily tip toe in there and steal Westburg from his current owner like a thief in the night” … and if you took my advice and did that, you better lock your doors and windows at night, because his former owner might be out for blood after seeing his start to the season. He had another huge day yesterday, going 2 for 3 with a 110.5 MPH homer and 107.6 MPH triple. He’s now slashing an insane .333/.392/.639 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 20%/6.3% K%/BB% in 20 games. The underlying numbers back it up with a 14% Barrel%, 93.8 MPH EV and .424 xwOBA. He already rose to #101 on the April Top 427 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), and even that might not be high enough. We could be talking about a Top 50 dynasty asset by May.

Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 24.0 – Cowser isn’t far behind Westburg, ranking 108th overall on those updated rankings, and he’s staying in lockstep with him, cracking a 111.5 MPH homer last night. He’s now slashing .373/.411/.784 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 30.4%/7.1% K%/BB% in 20 games. The underlying numbers back it up as well with a 17.1% Barrel%, 91.7 MPH EV, and .416 xwOBA. I give Westburg the edge because of the superior contact rates, but both of these guys are exploding into the type of core dynasty assets you build your team around.

Jose Soriano LAA, RHP, 25.6 – 6 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 7/3 K/BB vs. CIN. The sinker sat 97.2 MPH, and the curve and splitter racked up whiffs with a 41% and 50% whiff% respectively. He now has a 3.43 ERA with a 25% K% in 21 IP. Soriano has the great combo of keeping the ball on the ground with a negative 0.6 degree launch on the back of the sinker, huge velocity, and missing bats on the back of the sweeper, slider, and splitter. The control is the only thing that isn’t there with a 12.5% BB%, but with his kind of stuff, he can survive with below average control. And if the control takes a step forward, he could explode. I’m buying Soriano.

Luis Gil NYY, RHP, 25.10 – Speaking of poor control with huge stuff, Gil dominated yesterday, going 5.2 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 9/3 K/BB vs. TBR. The fastball sat 95.9 MPH and notched a 38% whiff%, while the slider notched a 40% whiff%. He has a 2.75 ERA with a 34.5% K% in 19.2 IP, but the 20.2% BB% is full blown panic territory. His control was horrific in the minors as well, so while it’s obviously not going to remain this high, it’s well in the danger territory. It makes me hesitant to fully pay up for him in a trade, but the upside is clearly worth hanging onto.

Mitchell Parker WAS, LHP, 24.7 – 7 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 8/0 K/BB vs. HOU. Parker is definitely moving into interesting territory after his 2nd strong outing, and in this one he was able to miss bats with a 29% whiff%. He now has a 1.50 ERA with a 27.9%/0.0% K%/BB% in 12 IP. He’s missed bats his entire minor league career with a deceptive lefty delivery, so seeing it transfer to the majors is huge, and most importantly for him, the control has been much improved this year. He only throws 91.9 MPH, and the control was below average prior to this year, so definitely tread carefully, but he’s certainly worth a pick up for a pitching starved team.

Andy Pages LAD, OF, 23.4 – Pages had his coming out party in the majors, going 2 for 4 with a 413 foot bomb for his first MLB homer. He passed Miguel Vargas on the depth chart and earned this callup with across the board destruction of Triple-A with a 181 wRC+ in 15 games, and LA seems intent on giving him a full time shot. The 83.3 MPH EV and 34.3% whiff% in 5 games shows there will be an adjustment period, but he also has a 22.2% Barrel%, and is sneaky fast with a 28.3 ft/sec sprint. He’s been raking since spring and proving the shoulder is 100% healthy. He’s one of the biggest early season risers.

Orelvis Martinez TOR, 2B/3B/SS, 22.4 – Orelvis is doing his darndest to kick the door down after hitting his 6th homer in his last 7 games. This thing exploded off his bat at 108.6 MPH. Along with the dingers, the hit tool has been as good as ever with a .333 BA and 21.5% K%. He’s only played 2B this year, which shows you what his path to playing time is. The problem is, Biggio, Clement, IKF and Schneider have all played well themselves on the MLB level, so it doesn’t make sense for Toronto to make a switch right now. Orelvis will have to be patient for injuries and/or struggles to hit first, but he’s doing all he can do to force the issue.

Austin Martin MIN, 2B/OF, 25.0 – The written off Austin Martin might finally be coming into his man muscles after jacking out his first MLB homer yesterday. That lightning quick righty swing reminds you why he got taken 5th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft. And his 88 MPH EV is very encouraging, although it comes with zero barrels and a 87.4 MPH FB/LD EV in 44 PA, so I don’t want to get ahead of myself here. But he’s always had the contact/speed profile, which is transferring with a 13.6% K% and top 23% sprint speed, so even a small uptick in power would go a long way. With Kepler returning soon, there isn’t a full time job for him, but Martin is putting some respect back on his name after falling out of favor over the past few years.

Wilyer Abreu BOS, OF, 24.10 – The Red Sox wanted to make it a point to get Abreu’s bat back in the lineup. and he showed why yesterday, going 3 for 5 with a 104.3 MPH double. Just like 2023, Abreu is proving he’s legit with a 9.1% Barrel%, 90.5 MPH EV, 16.5 degree launch, and 28.8%/15.3% K%/BB% in 59 PA. He’s also running a ton with 4 steals. He’s starting to establish himself as not only a rock solid real life hitter, but also as an impact fantasy player. He’s worthy of a pick up in all league sizes, and if you’ve read my work since last year, you likely already have him, at least in medium to deeper leagues.

 Bryan Woo SEA, RHP, 24.2 – Woo made his first rehab appearance at Triple-A coming off elbow inflammation, and he looked mostly healthy, going 3 perfect innings with 5 K’s. The fastball was down a tick to 93.9 MPH, but considering it was his first outing, I wouldn’t be worried about that, and all of his pitches racked up whiffs. He’s ready to continue his ascent to young ace status.

Blade Tidwell NYM, RHP, 22.10 – Many of the best pitching stashes have either already been called up or are likely already on people’s rosters, but Tidwell might be still out there, and he’s a worthy stash. He had another good outing yesterday, going 4 IP with 2 hit, 1 ER, and a 3/1 K/BB at Double-A. He now has a 1.84 ERA with a 32.1%/10.7% K%/BB% in 14.2 IP. The control is below average, but as long as he keeps it in a manageable range, the electric fastball/slider combo will do the rest. The path to a rotation spot is actually pretty crowded, so this might be more of a 2nd half call, and it’s also possible the Mets use him out of the bullpen, at least early in his career. But he’s worthy of keeping an eye on in all league sizes.

Dylan Beavers BAL, OF, 22.8 – Poor Mr. Beavers is going full breakout at Double-A after drilling his 2nd homer in 13 games, slashing .347/.421/.551 with 2 homers, 3 steals, a 34.2% GB%, and 19%/12.1% K%?BB%, but where in the world is this guy going to play. Kyle Stowers is about to be eligible for AARP, and he’s rotting away in the minors. The 25 year old Kjerstad seems like next man up, but he has 10 homers in 21 games and still hasn’t gotten the call. Coby Mayo has a 160 wRC+ with no path in sight. Let’s not even mention Connor Norby. Mr. Beavers is so far down the line, it’s like showing up to Starbucks during the lunch rush, seeing how insanely long the wait is going to be, and just turning around and leaving.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-APRIL TOP 427 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (4/19/24)
-APRIL TOP 300+ 2024 PROSPECTS RANKS COMING NEXT WEEK
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: APRIL MAILBAG COMING WEDNESDAY!
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (4/3/24)
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-SPREADSHEETS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: A Top 275 Sneak Peek of the 2024 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

Dynasty Baseball Rankings season is in full gear! The 2024 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings continues to get built out over on the Patreon with the Top 275. The Top 30 is free here on the Brick Wall. Analysis, projections, and prime projections for every player. Here is A Top 275 Sneak Peek of the 2024 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 275 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100+ COMING NEXT WEEK)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles (free)–Boston Red Sox (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Los Angeles Dodgers (free)–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Oakland Athletics–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

1) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 26.3 – Acuna went 40/70, but somehow the most mind blowing thing about his 2023 season is that he all of a sudden turned into an elite contact hitter with an 11.4% K% (23.6% in 2022). He also must have eaten his spinach this off-season, because the six foot Acuna Popeye’d the league with the type of exit velocity numbers usually reserved for giant human beings only. His 121.2 Max EV was the hardest hit ball all season. The next 6 leaders in that category were the 6’6” Giancarlo Stanton, the 6’5” Elly De La Cruz, the 6’4” Shohei Ohtani, the 6’5” Matt Olson, the 6’2” Jake Burger, and the 6’5” Yordan Alvarez. His 94.7 MPH AVG EV was bested only by the superhuman Aaron Judge (97.6 MPH). He got slower with a career worst 28 ft/sec sprint, but he still stole 73 bags. He hit the ball on the ground more than ever with a career high 49.5% GB%, but he still hit 41 bombs. He’s the undisputed #1 overall dynasty player. 2024 Projection: 132/37/103/.318/.398/.582/61

2) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS, 23.10 – Witt is Exhibit A on why you should be betting on Anthony Volpe and Jordan Walker in 2024. When an elite prospect shows all the ingredients of a future breakout in their rookie year, you need to be all over whatever small discount you can get them for. These are the type of breakouts that look so obvious in hindsight, you forget you ever doubted them in the first place. Witt raised his FB/LD EV from 92.6 MPH in 2022 to 94.4 MPH in 2023 and all hell broke loose with him cracking 30 dingers. He also lowered his K% by 4 percentage points to 17.4% and raised his BB% by 1.1 percentage points to 5.8%. The scary thing is that he was on the unlucky side too with a .343 wOBA vs. .373 xwOBA. There is another level to unlock here. His .904 2nd half OPS is probably what he has in store for us in 2024. 2024 Projection: 102/34/107/.283/.336/.522/47

3) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 23.7 – The 5’10” Carroll laughs at me for even hinting that the 6’0” Acuna isn’t big. Carroll truly had to deal with the little man discrimination his entire career, falling to a ridiculous 16th overall in the 2019 MLB Draft (I ranked him 3rd overall personally). He’s done nothing but prove the doubters wrong since then, culminating with a rookie season that immediately catapulted him to elite dynasty status. He smashed 25 homers with a 90 MPH EV. Nobody doubted his speed, and he didn’t disappoint with 54 steals and a 30.1 ft/sec sprint. The cherry on top is that he put up career best contact rates with a 19.4% K%, and that includes his entire minor league career going back to rookie ball. The only thing that could stop him is the major shoulder injury he suffered in 2021 which reared it’s ugly head again this July. He doubled over in pain after a swing and said, “I took a swing, and I felt a shift in my shoulder, shocking, tingling sensation go down my arm and then my hand go numb. I was just holding it thinking it came out of the socket, pretty much thought that the season was over.” It ended up being “minor,” but I’m not sure how you can’t at least have that in the back of your mind when ranking Carroll. He’s too good to be scared off by it, but my tolerance for injury risk might be higher than yours. 2024 Projection: 121/28/85/.288/.374/.496/52

4) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 23.3 – When Julio gets off to a slow start in 2024, remind yourself not to panic. 2023 was the 2nd year in a row where it took him a minute to hit his stride. He put up a mediocre .721 OPS in 87 games pre break before exploding in the 2nd half, slashing .308/.363/.578 with 19 homers and 15 steals in 68 games. He crushes the ball with a 92.7 MPH EV that led to 32 homers, and he’s lightning fast with a 29.6 ft/sec sprint that led to 37 steals. The only weakness he has that the guys ranked above him don’t have is a poor approach. His 37.4% chase rate is well below average and so is his 28.2% whiff%. I’m betting on the plate approach improving as he gains more experience, but the guys ranked above him are already further along. 2024 Projection: 104/33/105/.280/.341/.507/38

5) Shohei “(deferred) Money” Ohtani LAD, RHP/DH, 29.9 – First there were asterisks for juiced players. Then there were asterisks for juiced balls. And now there are asterisks for juiced contracts. The 700* million dollar man (*680 million of it deferred) tore the UCL in his right elbow in August and seems like he opted to go with an internal brace procedure rather than get his 2nd Tommy John surgery in 5 years. It’s still a serious surgery that will prevent him from pitching until 2025, but he’s expected to be good to go as hitter at the start of 2024. As we saw with Bryce Harper, the odds Ohtani will continue to be an elite hitter are very high, but we can’t be surprised if he doesn’t get back to prime form until the 2nd half. He was in the midst of the best offensive season of his career with career highs everywhere you look (EV, wOBA, xwOBA, K%, BB%, Hard Hit%), and his 180 wRC+ led the league by a good margin (Judge was 2nd at 174). I’m not concerned with Ohtani’s bat at all, but it’s fair to question his ability to stay healthy as a pitcher. His stuff is so good with a 96.8 MPH fastball that he could probably stand to lose a tick or two and still be near elite. He also strikes me as the type who will thrive in his old age with diminished velocity, so I’m far from writing him off as a pitcher, but I do believe you have to factor in the added risk. 2024 Projection: 96/33/94/.277/.380/.538/18

6) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, OF, 25.3 – Maybe it was the shoulder, maybe it was the wrist, or maybe it was the lack of PED’s, but it’s undeniable that Tatis had some of his upside shaved off the top in 2023. His barrel% was down 10.3 percentage points to 11%, his exit velocity was down 2 MPH to 91.9 MPH, his hard hit% was down 6.3 percentage points to 49.3%, and his xwOBA was down .039 to .368. He also wore down as the season went along with a .871 OPS in the 1st half versus a .665 OPS in the 2nd half. But take a look at all of those numbers. Even with him being considerably worse than his prime, he was still an elite fantasy player with 25 homers and 29 steals in 141 games. He missed all of 2022, he had to rehab both his shoulder and wrist surgeries over the off-season, and he also had to deal with so much controversy, whether it was self inflicted or not. He’ll actually be able to have a normal off-season going into 2024, and he’s still only 25 years old, which makes me think what he did in 2023 is his floor. And considering he also got unlucky (.332 wOBA vs. .368 xwOBA which is in the top 10% of the league), his floor is probably even higher than that. The decline in production takes him out of the conversation to be the #1 dynasty player overall, but this is still an easy Top 10 dynasty asset at the very least. 2024 Projection: 98/33/96/.274/.348/.515/31

7) Juan Soto NYY, OF, 25.6 – This is a contract year for Soto, and Scott Boras is his agent. He hasn’t really had that crazy career year yet. 2020 looked like it could have been that year with 13 homers and 202 wRC+ in 49 games, but it was a shortened season. What I’m trying to say is, the Baseball Gods owe him one, and his move from one of the very worst ballparks for lefty homers to one of the very best only adds fuel to that fire (I’m expecting him to start pulling the ball just a bit more). He doesn’t run enough with only 12 steals to truly be considered in the same tier as the guys ranked above him, but in any league that devalues speed, he is right there with them. He’s an OBP God with an 18.6% BB% and .410 OBP. It’s his 4th year in a row with more walks than strikeouts. His 6.7 degree launch is low, but he’s launch proof with a 98.7 MPH FB/LD EV that is 4th best in all of baseball. It led to a career high 35 homers. Everything seems to be setting up for Soto to have one of those silly statistical seasons that won’t even look real, and then he will land one of those silly contract numbers that won’t even look real. 2024 Projection: 115/38/115/.287/.422/.546/13

8) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 27.2 – Just call him the quiet killer because no elite player gets less hype than Kyle Tucker. He was one homer shy of going 30/30, and he did it while putting up career bests in both K% (13.6%) and BB% (11.9%). He has well below average speed with a bottom 33% sprint speed, but he once again proved stolen bases are not just about pure speed, there is a major skill component to it as well. Maybe it’s fitting he has the shortest blurb out of his elite dynasty brethren, because he’ll just continue to quietly kill your fantasy competition. No fanfare necessary. 2024 Projection: 99/30/115/.285/.365/.520/28

9) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 22.3 – Call me crazy, but I’m actually encouraged by Elly’s 33.7% K%, 29.7% whiff%, and .235 BA in his age 21 year old season in the major leagues. In last year’s Top 1,000 Rankings, I projected Elly’s 2023 triple slash would be .232/.294/.433, and it ended up being .235/.300/.410. Not bad if I don’t say so myself, but point being, this is exactly what you should have expected. He also had a 26.9%/14.0% K%/BB% in 38 games at Triple-A, which proves he is capable of making real improvements to his plate approach over time (30.9%/7.7% K%/BB% at Double-A in 2022). And his hit tool only needs to get to below average to be an absolute fantasy monster. The power is elite with a 91.2 MPH EV and 119.2 Max EV which was the 3rd highest mark in the league. It came with a 3.6 degree launch, but he has the type of power that is launch proof (13 homers in 98 games), and he’s never had any major groundball issues in the minors, so that number is only coming up. He also has elite speed with 35 steals and a 30.5 ft/sec sprint speed which was tied for the fastest man in baseball with Bobby Witt. I always say, “if you can’t take risks in fantasy, where can you take risks,” and I’m not even sure Elly is as risky as people think. I’m all in. 2024 Projection: 91/25/85/.244/.317/.452/52 Prime Projection: 103/33/109/.261/.337/.506/65

10) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 26.9 – The only two categories Yordan isn’t a beast in are games played and steals. He dealt with left hand soreness in March that delayed the start of his spring training, he missed about a week in April with a neck injury, and he missed almost 2 months in June and July with an oblique injury. It limited him to just 114 games. The surgeries he’s gotten on both of his knees are also still fresh in everyone’s mind, but the fact that none of his issues had to do with his knees is encouraging to me. He played in 135 games in 2022 and 144 games in 2021. I think it’s one year too early to really slap him with the injury prone tag. And he’s too elite to be too risk averse with a career .978 OPS and a .440 xwOBA in 2023, which was the 3rd best mark in the league behind only Judge and Acuna. I’m not getting too hung up on the injury risk quite yet. 2024 Projection: 94/37/111/.296/.403/.589/1

11) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 26.8 – While many were jumping ship after a down and injured 2022, I kept the faith by ranking Robert 30th overall, and he responded with the type of year we all knew he was capable of, slashing .264/.315/.542 with 38 homers, 20 steals, and a 28.9%/5.0% K%/BB% in 145 games. He laughed in the face of chase rate (40.5%) and chased his way to a career best 15.4% barrel%. His speed bounced back with a top 16% sprint speed, and he played in a career high 145 games. I wish I could say he is now completely out of the woods and we can trust him completely, but the injury black cloud always seems to be lurking. His season ended on September 24th with a sprained MCL in his knee which would have kept him out for up to a month if the season didn’t end a week later. He also dealt with hamstring, quad, calf, hip, and finger injuries throughout the season. Rostering Robert definitely feels like playing Press Your Luck, begging to avoid any whammies (no whammies, no whammies, no whammies, STOP). Robert is elite enough where you can’t live completely in fear of his next injury, but projecting him for a fully healthy season feels optimistic. 2024 Projection: 88/32/84/.268/.320/.528/19

12) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 31.11 – Judge’s 97.6 MPH EV is the highest average exit velocity in the history of Statcast. The only years Judge didn’t lead the league in average exit velocity was 2015 when he was in the minors, and 2020 during the shortened season. His .468 xwOBA not only led the league, and it wasn’t only a career high, it was the highest xwOBA amongst qualified hitters in history if you take out 2020 (Soto put up a .475 xwOBA that season in 49 games). And he did all of this while gutting it out in the 2nd half with a torn ligament in his big toe which knocked him out for almost 2 months in June and July. He isn’t expected to need surgery this off-season, which is a good sign, and he had a 1.066 OPS in September, so I’m inclined to not harp too much on the injury. 2024 Projection: 121/46/119/.283/.405/.594/9

13) Bryce Harper PHI, 1B, 31.6 – Harper was nice enough to leave zero doubt that his power will fully return to prime form in 2024 coming off Tommy John surgery. After hitting just 3 homers in first 58 games, he turned it around by launching 23 homers in his final 79 games, including the postseason. He returned way ahead of schedule anyway, so it’s not surprising he wasn’t fully healthy until the 2nd half. I would expect your typical elite Harper season in 2024, and he strikes me as the type of all time great that will be raking deep into his 30’s. 2024 Projection: 107/35/100/.289/.400/.540/14

Shadow13) Shohei Ohtani LAD, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.9 – This is where I would rank Ohtani in weekly leagues or as a hitter only. 2024 Projection: 96/33/94/.277/.380/.538/18

14) Mookie Betts LAD, 2B/OF, 31.6 – Betts played 70 games at 2B in 2023 and it was announced he will be LA’s starting 2B moving forward. He immediately becomes the best 2B in baseball. He is in the midst of a later career power surge, which makes up for his declining speed. After hitting a career high 35 homers in 2022, he topped that in 2023 by jacking out 39 dingers. His 92.4 MPH EV and 20.6 degree launch were both career highs, and his 48.5% Hard Hit% was the 2nd best mark of his career. As I mentioned, his speed is declining with a bottom 47% of the league sprint speed, but he still used his wiles to nab 14 bags. He may not be in his physical prime anymore, but Betts proved in 2023 that he has plenty of years of elite production left in him. 2024 Projection: 120/34/91/.290/.381/.536/13

15) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 31.6 – Mookie Betts’ beastly season is a reminder that not every year can be a banger. It wasn’t Ramirez’ best season with only 24 homers in 156 games, but there is absolutely nothing in the underlying numbers that would be concerning in the slightest, and we know his power is fine after watching him drop Anderson on a single punch. He’s also not slowing down on the bases at all with 28 steals. Even in a down-ish year, he still finished 29th overall on the Razzball Player Rater. 2024 Projection: 94/31/101/.281/.360/.511/26

16) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 23.1 – Harris’ surface stats took a step back in his 2nd year in the bigs with a .808 OPS in 2023 vs. a .853 OPS in 2022, but his underlying numbers actually showed a player who was improving. His contact rates took a big step forward with a 18.7% K% (24.3% in 2022), his EV took a 1.4 MPH jump to 90.9 MPH, his launch increased by 3.1 degrees to 7.6, and his xwOBA increased by .020 to .355. He hit .293 with 18 homers and 20 steals in 138 games, and he was even better in his final 100 games with a .912 OPS. He still needs to improve his plate approach with a 4.6% BB%, but Harris cemented his status as a near elite dynasty asset in 2023. 2024 Projection: 91/23/82/.287/.333/.480/27

17) Trea Turner PHI, SS, 30.9 – I was pounding the table to buy low on Turner all season, but he came on too strong at the end of the year to get any discount on him this off-season. He slashed .339/.391/.677 with 16 homers, 9 steals and 16.9% K% in his final 47 games, and he’s currently destroying the playoffs with a 222 wRC+ in 11 games. He had a .656 OPS in his first 108 games. He also hasn’t lost even half a step with the 4th fastest sprint speed in the game. That buy low window slammed shut hard at the trade deadline. 2024 Projection: 105/25/83/.289/.340/.481/35

18) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 20.1 – Baseball now uses minor leaguers like guinea pigs, testing out every hairbrained idea they have all willy nilly, and Chourio got caught in the crosshairs of it. The Southern League used a pre-tacked ball for the first half of the season, and Chourio put up a lowly .714 OPS in 71 games. When they went back to the regular ball, he immediately went gangbusters, slashing .324/.379/.538 with 11 homers, 21 steals, and a 13.4%/8.0% K%/BB% in 57 games. He closed out the season at Triple-A where he put up a 4.2%/8.3% K%/BB% in 6 games. He did all of this as a 19 year old. The power/speed combo is plus to double plus, and it sure looks like his contact rates are entering the elite range if you ignore what he did in the 1st half. Jackson Holliday seems to be the consensus #1 prospect in the game (and Wyatt Langford is the trendy #1 for fantasy), but if Chourio hit with the regular ball all season, I’m not so sure that would be the case. The main thing Holliday has over Chourio right now is plate approach, which makes him the safer prospect, but for fantasy, I gotta give the ever so slight edge to the power/speed combo. Milwaukee showed us they are all in by signing him to an 8 year, $82 million contract. It makes it much more likely that he will break camp with the team, and even if doesn’t, it won’t be long until he’s up for good. Chourio is my #1 fantasy prospect. 2024 Projection: 69/21/75/.258/.320/.469/25 Prime Projection: 101/32/104/.283/.353/.523/41

19) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 20.4 – Holliday’s power/speed combo really wasn’t that huge with only 12 homers and 24 steals (in 33 attempts) in 125 games spread across 4 levels (A, A+, AA, AAA). It dropped off even further in the upper minors with 5 homers and 4 steals in 54 games. It seems crazy to start his blurb off with criticism, but when the battle for the top prospect in the game is so close, it needs to be highlighted. Now that we got that out of the way, Holliday had an absolutely insane season where he slashed .323/.442/.499 with a 20.3%/17.4% K%/BB%. He was in high school last year, and he displayed one of the most advanced plate approaches of any prospect all the way through Triple-A. This is why everyone drools over kids with baseball bloodlines, they tend to be far advanced beyond their years. As I mentioned, the power isn’t fully developed yet with relatively low flyball rates, but he hits the ball hard with a 30.2% Hard Hit% and a 90.9 MPH EV in 40 batted balls at Triple-A, so I’m not concerned about the power long term. He has the safety edge over Chourio, but it’s not like Chourio is a risky prospect, so Holliday slots in at #2 for me. 2024 Projection: 78/16/71/.270/.339/.441/20 Prime Projection: 117/27/94/.296/.382/.506/28

20) Wyatt Langford TEX, OF, 22.5 – I have Chourio, Holliday, and Langford in a tier of their own atop my Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings. The only reason Langford is 3rd is because Chourio/Holliday have a longer professional track record and more impressive age to level production. But his power, speed, hit tool, plate approach, and production can rival anyone’s. He was selected 4th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft on the back of elite production in the SEC, slashing .373/.498/.784 with 21 homers, 9 steals, and a 44/56 K/BB in 64 games. He clearly separated himself from Dylan Crews in his pro debut, slashing .360/.480/.677 with 10 homers, 12 steals, and a 17.0%/18.0% K%/BB% in 44 games, and he was equally as dominant in the upper minors as he was the lower minors. He’s the total package, and if you wanted to rank him 1st overall on prospects rankings, I wouldn’t argue with you. 2024 Projection: 81/26/77/.262/.338/.479/18 Prime Projection: 103/34/109/.277/.364/.535/24

21) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 25.5 – If Strider’s 3.86 ERA opens up even the smallest buy window, I would be all over it. He had a 3.04 xERA, 2.92 xFIP, and 2.86 SIERA. His 22 homers against wasn’t bat at all, so you can’t even blame a homer problem. ERA is just about the least predictive stat there is. He got unlucky. Simple as that. His 36.8%% K% led the league by a large margin, and strikeouts are king in fantasy. Glasnow was 2nd at 33.4% and Skubal was 3rd at 32.9%. His control continued to improve with an above average 7.6% BB%, and he proved he can handle a full workload with 186.2 IP. He also led the league in wins with 20, and while that was partly due to good luck, Atlanta is a perennial winner, so he should continue to be among the league leaders there. He was the #1 fantasy pitcher in 2024, and considering his age and strikeout upside, he’s in a tier of his own as the easy #1 overall pitcher in dynasty. 2024 Projection: 16/3.18/1.04/266 in 182 IP

22) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 25.0 – Vlad got very unlucky in 2023. His .374 xwOBA (top 7% of the league) vs. .340 wOBA was the 8th largest differential in baseball, and this is the first year he’s ever underperformed his underlying numbers, so this isn’t a trend for him. He crushes the ball with a 92.1 MPH EV, he makes near elite contact with a 14.7% K%, and he raised his launch to a career high 10.5 degrees. With that type of profile, he simply can’t be held down for long. The only thing rattling around my head that gives me some pause is that the only season he really had a beastly year, 2021, was the year he played over half his home games at their spring training ballpark and Triple-A ballpark, both of which played like extreme hitter’s parks. If you take that year out of the equation, he’s really yet to display the ability to be a truly elite fantasy player, but at the end of the day (and the beginning of the day), the underlying numbers don’t lie. He looks setup for a big 2024. 2024 Projection: 92/31/101/.286/.359/.507/6

23) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 27.5 – There is no fancy analysis needed for Devers. He rips the ball (93.1 MPH) with a swing geared for both power and average (12.4 degree launch). His plate approach has also slowly been improving with a career best 19.2%/9.5% K%/BB%. The guy is as safe and consistent as they come. 2024 Projection: 93/34/106/.280/.358/.513/5

24) Austin Riley ATL, 3B, 27.0 – Riley is Devers’ righthanded brother from another mother. The plate approach might only be average-ish, but he rips the ball (92.3 MPH EV) with a swing geared for both power and average (13.5 degree launch). He’s averaging 36 homers with a .285 BA over his last 3 seasons. 2024 Projection: 97/36/102/.274/.347/.519/3

25) Corey Seager TEX, SS, 29.11 – I ranked Seager 38th overall last off-season, starting his Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “Seager doesn’t get the respect he deserves in the fantasy world,” and I ended it by writing, “If he hits .300 next year with 35 homers it wouldn’t be surprising at all.” He blew past even my high expectations with a .327 BA and an over 40 homer pace if he didn’t miss time. If you include the postseason, he hit almost exactly 35 homers in 136 games (36 homers). He’s an elite hitter with a 93.3 MPH EV, 13 degree launch, .413 xwOBA, and 16.4%/9.1% K%/BB%. Nobody will be underrating him anymore. 2024 Projection: 95/35/104/.291/.369/.538/3

26) Freddie Freeman LAD, 1B, 34.7 – The only question with the 34 year old Freeman is how much longer can he keep it up. I’m ranking him this high because I’m betting on him being productive deep into his 30’s, but he was the 3rd overall fantasy player this year, so this ranking does actually include an age discount. He showed zero signs of decline in 2023 with a .409 xwOBA which was in the top 2% of the league. He’s never had an xwOBA that wasn’t in at least the top 4% of the league in the Statcast era. He’s possibly the most consistently great hitter of his generation. He also took advantage of the new rules with a career high by far 23 steals. Certainly in win now mode Freeman isn’t going anywhere, but even in a rebuild I wouldn’t feel that much pressure to move him. 2024 Projection: 120/30/101/.313/.396/.528/18

27) Francisco Lindor NYM, SS, 30.5 – Lindor put up the quietest 30/30 (actually 31/31) season of all time. He somehow found the fountain of youth with career best power numbers and a major speed bounce back. He notched career bests in EV (91.2 MPH), Barrel% (10.4%), and launch angle (19.2 degrees). His sprint speed hit a 5 year high of 28.2 ft/sec, and he took advantage of the new rules with a career high 31 steals. He managed to do all of this with a bone spur in his elbow which required surgery this off-season, but with how many guys rake right through torn UCL’S and barely miss any time after getting Tommy John surgery, I’m not even sure you need elbows at all to hit. 2024 Projection: 100/30/96/.258/.337/.475/26

28) Matt Olson ATL, 1B, 30.0 – Olson led the league in homers with 54. Schwarber’s 47 was a distant 2nd. His already double plus power leveled up to truly elite levels with a career high in Barrel% (16.4%), EV (93.7 MPH), Max EV (118.6 MPH), Hard Hit% (55.5%) and xwOBA (.394). His .283 BA was probably on the lucky side with a .263 xBA, but the days of being concerned about his hit tool are over with a 23.2%/14.% K%/BB%. 2023 strikes me as a career year, but Olson is one of the premier power hitters in baseball. 2024 Projection: 104/42/119/.267/.368/.549/1

29) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 22.9 – If Gunnar took advantage of the new stolen base rules like almost everyone else, Gunnar vs. Carroll would still look very close today, but he only attempted 13 steals in 150 games. It’s not like he couldn’t have run more with a 28.8 ft/sec sprint and a solid 77% success rate, so if he just decides to start running more in 2024, he could quickly rise up the dynasty rankings even further. Even with the modest steal totals, there is a ton to love, led by how hard he crushes the ball. His 92 MPH EV is in the top 9% of the league, and he unsurprisingly raised his launch angle much higher than in his MLB debut in 2022 (2 degrees) with an 11.4 degree launch. He also cemented the huge jump his hit tool took in 2022 with a 25.6%/9.0% K%/BB% this year. It all led to a 123 wRC+ with 28 homers. The only issue he hasn’t corrected is his struggles vs. lefties with a .618 OPS, but Baltimore looks committed to playing him everyday and not turning him into a platoon guy, so I have faith he will hit them well enough over time. Keep in mind he will still be only 22 at the start of next season. 2024 Projection: 97/30/91/.266/.341/.506/15

30) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 29.5 – Alonso’s .205 BABIP was dead last among qualified hitters. He has a career .259 BABIP and he had a .279 BABIP in 2022. Point being, his .217 BA is going to bounce back in a big way in 2024, especially considering he has no contact issues with a 22.9%/9.9% K%/BB%. What you’re buying is the elite power anyway, and it was in prime form with 46 homers (3rd most in the league). If that low BA opens up even a crack of buy low value, jump on it. 2024 Projection: 94/42/120/.253/.346/.516/4

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Patreon Post: A Top 78 Sneak Peek of the 2024 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

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1) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 26.3 – Acuna went 40/70, but somehow the most mind blowing thing about his 2023 season is that he all of a sudden turned into an elite contact hitter with an 11.4% K% (23.6% in 2022). He also must have eaten his spinach this off-season, because the six foot Acuna Popeye’d the league with the type of exit velocity numbers usually reserved for giant human beings only. His 121.2 Max EV was the hardest hit ball all season. The next 6 leaders in that category were the 6’6” Giancarlo Stanton, the 6’5” Elly De La Cruz, the 6’4” Shohei Ohtani, the 6’5” Matt Olson, the 6’2” Jake Burger, and the 6’5” Yordan Alvarez. His 94.7 MPH AVG EV was bested only by the superhuman Aaron Judge (97.6 MPH). He got slower with a career worst 28 ft/sec sprint, but he still stole 73 bags. He hit the ball on the ground more than ever with a career high 49.5% GB%, but he still hit 41 bombs. He’s the undisputed #1 overall dynasty player. 2024 Projection: 132/37/103/.318/.398/.582/61

2) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS, 23.10 – Witt is Exhibit A on why you should be betting on Anthony Volpe and Jordan Walker in 2024. When an elite prospect shows all the ingredients of a future breakout in their rookie year, you need to be all over whatever small discount you can get them for. These are the type of breakouts that look so obvious in hindsight, you forget you ever doubted them in the first place. Witt raised his FB/LD EV from 92.6 MPH in 2022 to 94.4 MPH in 2023 and all hell broke loose with him cracking 30 dingers. He also lowered his K% by 4 percentage points to 17.4% and raised his BB% by 1.1 percentage points to 5.8%. The scary thing is that he was on the unlucky side too with a .343 wOBA vs. .373 xwOBA. There is another level to unlock here. His .904 2nd half OPS is probably what he has in store for us in 2024. 2024 Projection: 102/34/107/.283/.336/.522/47

3) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 23.7 – The 5’10” Carroll laughs at me for even hinting that the 6’0” Acuna isn’t big. Carroll truly had to deal with the little man discrimination his entire career, falling to a ridiculous 16th overall in the 2019 MLB Draft (I ranked him 3rd overall personally). He’s done nothing but prove the doubters wrong since then, culminating with a rookie season that immediately catapulted him to elite dynasty status. He smashed 25 homers with a 90 MPH EV. Nobody doubted his speed, and he didn’t disappoint with 54 steals and a 30.1 ft/sec sprint. The cherry on top is that he put up career best contact rates with a 19.4% K%, and that includes his entire minor league career going back to rookie ball. The only thing that could stop him is the major shoulder injury he suffered in 2021 which reared it’s ugly head again this July. He doubled over in pain after a swing and said, “I took a swing, and I felt a shift in my shoulder, shocking, tingling sensation go down my arm and then my hand go numb. I was just holding it thinking it came out of the socket, pretty much thought that the season was over.” It ended up being “minor,” but I’m not sure how you can’t at least have that in the back of your mind when ranking Carroll. He’s too good to be scared off by it, but my tolerance for injury risk might be higher than yours. 2024 Projection: 121/28/85/.288/.374/.496/52

4) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 23.3 – When Julio gets off to a slow start in 2024, remind yourself not to panic. 2023 was the 2nd year in a row where it took him a minute to hit his stride. He put up a mediocre .721 OPS in 87 games pre break before exploding in the 2nd half, slashing .308/.363/.578 with 19 homers and 15 steals in 68 games. He crushes the ball with a 92.7 MPH EV that led to 32 homers, and he’s lightning fast with a 29.6 ft/sec sprint that led to 37 steals. The only weakness he has that the guys ranked above him don’t have is a poor approach. His 37.4% chase rate is well below average and so is his 28.2% whiff%. I’m betting on the plate approach improving as he gains more experience, but the guys ranked above him are already further along. 2024 Projection: 104/33/105/.280/.341/.507/38

5) Shohei Ohtani FRA, RHP/DH, 29.9 – Ohtani tore the UCL in his right elbow in August and opted to go with an internal brace procedure rather than get his 2nd Tommy John surgery in 5 years. It’s still a serious surgery that will prevent him from pitching until 2025, but he’s expected to be good to go as hitter at the start of 2024. As we saw with Bryce Harper, the odds Ohtani will continue to be an elite hitter are very high, but we can’t be surprised if he doesn’t get back to prime form until the 2nd half. He was in the midst of the best offensive season of his career with career highs everywhere you look (EV, wOBA, xwOBA, K%, BB%, Hard Hit%), and his 180 wRC+ led the league by a good margin (Judge was 2nd at 174). I’m not concerned with Ohtani’s bat at all, but it’s fair to question his ability to stay healthy as a pitcher. His stuff is so good with a 96.8 MPH fastball that he could probably stand to lose a tick or two and still be near elite. He also strikes me as the type who will thrive in his old age with diminished velocity, so I’m far from writing him off as a pitcher, but I do believe you have to factor in the added risk. 2024 Projection: 96/33/94/.277/.380/.538/18

6) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, OF, 25.3 – Maybe it was the shoulder, maybe it was the wrist, or maybe it was the lack of PED’s, but it’s undeniable that Tatis had some of his upside shaved off the top in 2023. His barrel% was down 10.3 percentage points to 11%, his exit velocity was down 2 MPH to 91.9 MPH, his hard hit% was down 6.3 percentage points to 49.3%, and his xwOBA was down .039 to .368. He also wore down as the season went along with a .871 OPS in the 1st half versus a .665 OPS in the 2nd half. But take a look at all of those numbers. Even with him being considerably worse than his prime, he was still an elite fantasy player with 25 homers and 29 steals in 141 games. He missed all of 2022, he had to rehab both his shoulder and wrist surgeries over the off-season, and he also had to deal with so much controversy, whether it was self inflicted or not. He’ll actually be able to have a normal off-season going into 2024, and he’s still only 25 years old, which makes me think what he did in 2023 is his floor. And considering he also got unlucky (.332 wOBA vs. .368 xwOBA which is in the top 10% of the league), his floor is probably even higher than that. The decline in production takes him out of the conversation to be the #1 dynasty player overall, but this is still an easy Top 10 dynasty asset at the very least. 2024 Projection: 98/33/96/.274/.348/.515/31

7) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 27.2 – Just call him the quiet killer because no elite player gets less hype than Kyle Tucker. He was one homer shy of going 30/30, and he did it while putting up career bests in both K% (13.6%) and BB% (11.9%). He has well below average speed with a bottom 33% sprint speed, but he once again proved stolen bases are not just about pure speed, there is a major skill component to it as well. Maybe it’s fitting he has the shortest blurb out of his elite dynasty brethren, because he’ll just continue to quietly kill your fantasy competition. No fanfare necessary. 2024 Projection: 99/30/115/.285/.365/.520/28

8) Juan Soto SDP, OF, 25.6 – Soto doesn’t run enough with only 12 steals to truly be considered in the same tier as the guys ranked above him, but in any league that devalues speed, he is right there with them. He’s an OBP God with an 18.6% BB% and .410 OBP. It’s his 4th year in a row with more walks than strikeouts. His 6.7 degree launch is low, but he’s launch proof with a 98.7 MPH FB/LD EV that is 4th best in all of baseball. It led to a career high 35 homers. This is a contract year for Soto and Scott Boras is his agent. He hasn’t really had that crazy career year yet. 2020 looked like it could have been that year with 13 homers and 202 wRC+ in 49 games, but it was a shortened season. The baseball Gods owe him one … 2024 Projection: 108/37/112/.287/.422/.536/13

9) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 22.3 – Call me crazy, but I’m actually encouraged by Elly’s 33.7% K%, 29.7% whiff%, and .235 BA in his age 21 year old season in the major leagues. In last year’s Top 1,000 Rankings, I projected Elly’s 2023 triple slash would be .232/.294/.433, and it ended up being .235/.300/.410. Not bad if I don’t say so myself, but point being, this is exactly what you should have expected. He also had a 26.9%/14.0% K%/BB% in 38 games at Triple-A, which proves he is capable of making real improvements to his plate approach over time (30.9%/7.7% K%/BB% at Double-A in 2022). And his hit tool only needs to get to below average to be an absolute fantasy monster. The power is elite with a 91.2 MPH EV and 119.2 Max EV which was the 3rd highest mark in the league. It came with a 3.6 degree launch, but he has the type of power that is launch proof (13 homers in 98 games), and he’s never had any major groundball issues in the minors, so that number is only coming up. He also has elite speed with 35 steals and a 30.5 ft/sec sprint speed which was tied for the fastest man in baseball with Bobby Witt. I always say, “if you can’t take risks in fantasy, where can you take risks,” and I’m not even sure Elly is as risky as people think. I’m all in. 2024 Projection: 91/25/85/.244/.317/.452/52 Prime Projection: 103/33/109/.261/.337/.506/65

10) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 26.9 – The only two categories Yordan isn’t a beast in are games played and steals. He dealt with left hand soreness in March that delayed the start of his spring training, he missed about a week in April with a neck injury, and he missed almost 2 months in June and July with an oblique injury. It limited him to just 114 games. The surgeries he’s gotten on both of his knees are also still fresh in everyone’s mind, but the fact that none of his issues had to do with his knees is encouraging to me. He played in 135 games in 2022 and 144 games in 2021. I think it’s one year too early to really slap him with the injury prone tag. And he’s too elite to be too risk averse with a career .978 OPS and a .440 xwOBA in 2023, which was the 3rd best mark in the league behind only Judge and Acuna. I’m not getting too hung up on the injury risk quite yet. 2024 Projection: 94/37/111/.296/.403/.589/1

11) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 26.8 – While many were jumping ship after a down and injured 2022, I kept the faith by ranking Robert 30th overall, and he responded with the type of year we all knew he was capable of, slashing .264/.315/.542 with 38 homers, 20 steals, and a 28.9%/5.0% K%/BB% in 145 games. He laughed in the face of chase rate (40.5%) and chased his way to a career best 15.4% barrel%. His speed bounced back with a top 16% sprint speed, and he played in a career high 145 games. I wish I could say he is now completely out of the woods and we can trust him completely, but the injury black cloud always seems to be lurking. His season ended on September 24th with a sprained MCL in his knee which would have kept him out for up to a month if the season didn’t end a week later. He also dealt with hamstring, quad, calf, hip, and finger injuries throughout the season. Rostering Robert definitely feels like playing Press Your Luck, begging to avoid any whammies (no whammies, no whammies, no whammies, STOP). Robert is elite enough where you can’t live completely in fear of his next injury, but projecting him for a fully healthy season feels optimistic. 2024 Projection: 88/32/84/.268/.320/.528/19

12) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 31.11 – Judge’s 97.6 MPH EV is the highest average exit velocity in the history of Statcast. The only years Judge didn’t lead the league in average exit velocity was 2015 when he was in the minors, and 2020 during the shortened season. His .468 xwOBA not only led the league, and it wasn’t only a career high, it was the highest xwOBA amongst qualified hitters in history if you take out 2020 (Soto put up a .475 xwOBA that season in 49 games). And he did all of this while gutting it out in the 2nd half with a torn ligament in his big toe which knocked him out for almost 2 months in June and July. He isn’t expected to need surgery this off-season, which is a good sign, and he had a 1.066 OPS in September, so I’m inclined to not harp too much on the injury. 2024 Projection: 121/46/119/.283/.405/.594/9

13) Bryce Harper PHI, 1B, 31.6 – Harper was nice enough to leave zero doubt that his power will fully return to prime form in 2024 coming off Tommy John surgery. After hitting just 3 homers in first 58 games, he turned it around by launching 23 homers in his final 81 games, including the postseason. He returned way ahead of schedule anyway, so it’s not surprising he wasn’t fully healthy until the 2nd half. I would expect your typical elite Harper season in 2024, and he strikes me as the type of all time great that will be raking deep into his 30’s. 2024 Projection: 107/35/100/.289/.400/.540/14

Shadow13) Shohei Ohtani FRA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.9 – This is where I would rank Ohtani in weekly leagues or as a hitter only. 2024 Projection: 96/33/94/.277/.380/.538/18

14) Mookie Betts LAD, 2B/OF, 31.6 – Betts is having a later career power surge, which makes up for his declining speed. After hitting a career high 35 homers in 2022, he topped that in 2023 by jacking out 39 dingers. His 92.4 MPH EV and 20.6 degree launch were both career highs, and his 48.5% Hard Hit% was the 2nd best mark of his career. As I mentioned, his speed is declining with a bottom 47% of the league sprint speed, but he still used his wiles to nab 14 bags. He may not be in his physical prime anymore, but Betts proved in 2023 that he has plenty of years of elite production left in him. 2024 Projection: 120/34/91/.290/.381/.536/13

15) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 31.6 – Mookie Betts’ beastly season is a reminder that not every year can be a banger. It wasn’t Ramirez’ best season with only 24 homers in 156 games, but there is absolutely nothing in the underlying numbers that would be concerning in the slightest, and we know his power is fine after watching him drop Anderson on a single punch. He’s also not slowing down on the bases at all with 28 steals. Even in a down-ish year, he still finished 29th overall on the Razzball Player Rater. 2024 Projection: 94/31/101/.281/.360/.511/26

16) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 23.1 – Harris’ surface stats took a step back in his 2nd year in the bigs with a .808 OPS in 2023 vs. a .853 OPS in 2022, but his underlying numbers actually showed a player who was improving. His contact rates took a big step forward with a 18.7% K% (24.3% in 2022), his EV took a 1.4 MPH jump to 90.9 MPH, his launch increased by 3.1 degrees to 7.6, and his xwOBA increased by .020 to .355. He hit .293 with 18 homers and 20 steals in 138 games, and he was even better in his final 100 games with a .912 OPS. He still needs to improve his plate approach with a 4.6% BB%, but Harris cemented his status as a near elite dynasty asset in 2023. 2024 Projection: 91/23/82/.287/.333/.480/27

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Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: A Top 29 Sneak Peek of the 2024 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

I’m excited to kick off the Sneak Peek Series of the 2024 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings over on the Patreon. The Sneak Peeks will get increasingly larger in subsequent releases. The Top 6 are free on the Brick Wall. Here is A Top 29 Sneak Peek of the 2024 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

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-SEPTEMBER 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
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-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: SEPTEMBER MAILBAG! (9/22/23)
-Off-Season content includes team dynasty reports, deep positional rankings, predicting future prospects lists, strategy articles, podcasts and very, very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

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1) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 26.3 – Acuna went 40/70, but somehow the most mind blowing thing about his 2023 season is that he all of a sudden turned into an elite contact hitter with an 11.4% K% (23.6% in 2022). He also must have eaten his spinach this off-season, because the six foot Acuna Popeye’d the league with the type of exit velocity numbers usually reserved for giant human beings. His 121.2 Max EV was the hardest hit ball all season. The next 6 leaders in that category were the 6’6” Giancarlo Stanton, the 6’5” Elly De La Cruz, the 6’4” Shohei Ohtani, the 6’5” Matt Olson, the 6’2” Jake Burger, and the 6’5” Yordan Alvarez. His 94.7 MPH AVG EV was bested only by the superhuman Aaron Judge (97.6 MPH). He got slower with a career worst 28 ft/sec sprint, but he still stole 73 bags. He hit the ball on the ground more than ever with a career high 49.5% GB%, but he still hit 41 bombs. He’s the undisputed #1 overall dynasty player. 2024 Projection: 132/37/103/.318/.398/.582/61

2) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS, 23.10 – Witt is Exhibit A on why you should be betting on Anthony Volpe and Jordan Walker in 2024. When an elite prospect shows all the ingredients of a future breakout in their rookie year, you need to be all over whatever small discount you can get them for. These are the type of breakouts that look so obvious in hindsight, you forget you ever doubted them in the first place. Witt raised his FB/LD EV from 92.6 MPH in 2022 to 94.4 MPH in 2023 and all hell broke loose with him cracking 30 dingers. He also lowered his K% by 4 percentage points to 17.4% and raised his BB% by 1.1 percentage points to 5.8%. The scary thing is that he was on the unlucky side too with a .343 wOBA vs. .373 xwOBA. There is another level to unlock here. His .904 2nd half OPS is probably what he has in store for us in 2024. 2024 Projection: 102/34/107/.283/.336/.522/47

3) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 23.7 – The 5’10” Carroll laughs at me for even hinting that the 6’0” Acuna isn’t big. Carroll truly had to deal with the little man discrimination his entire career, falling to a ridiculous 16th overall in the 2019 MLB Draft (I ranked him 3rd overall personally). He’s done nothing but prove the doubters wrong since then, culminating with a rookie season that immediately catapulted him to elite dynasty status. He smashed 25 homers with a 90 MPH EV. Nobody doubted his speed, and he didn’t disappoint with 54 steals and a 30.1 ft/sec sprint. The cherry on top is that he put up career best contact rates with a 19.4% K%, and that includes his entire minor league career going back to rookie ball. The only thing that could stop him is the major shoulder injury he suffered in 2021 which reared it’s ugly head again this July. He doubled over in pain after a swing and said, “I took a swing, and I felt a shift in my shoulder, shocking, tingling sensation go down my arm and then my hand go numb. I was just holding it thinking it came out of the socket, pretty much thought that the season was over.” It ended up being “minor,” but I’m not sure how you can’t at least have that in the back of your mind when ranking Carroll. He’s too good to be scared off by it, but my tolerance for injury risk might be higher than yours. 2024 Projection: 121/28/85/.288/.374/.496/52

4) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 23.3 – When Julio gets off to a slow start in 2024, remind yourself not to panic. 2023 was the 2nd year in a row where it took him a minute to hit his stride. He put up a mediocre .721 OPS in 87 games pre break before exploding in the 2nd half, slashing .308/.363/.578 with 19 homers and 15 steals in 68 games. He crushes the ball with a 92.7 MPH EV that led to 32 homers, and he’s lightning fast with a 29.6 ft/sec sprint that led to 37 steals. The only weakness he has that the guys ranked above him don’t have is a poor approach. His 37.4% chase rate is well below average and so is his 28.2% whiff%. I’m betting on the plate approach improving as he gains more experience, but the guys ranked above him are already further along. 2024 Projection: 104/33/105/.280/.341/.507/38

5) Shohei Ohtani FRA, RHP/DH, 29.9 – Ohtani tore the UCL in his right elbow in August and opted to go with an internal brace procedure rather than get his 2nd Tommy John surgery in 5 years. It’s still a serious surgery that will prevent him from pitching until 2025, but he’s expected to be good to go as hitter at the start of 2024. As we saw with Bryce Harper, the odds Ohtani will continue to be an elite hitter are very high, but we can’t be surprised if he doesn’t get back to prime form until the 2nd half. He was in the midst of the best offensive season of his career with career highs everywhere you look (EV, wOBA, xwOBA, K%, BB%, Hard Hit%), and his 180 wRC+ led the league by a good margin (Judge was 2nd at 174). I’m not concerned with Ohtani’s bat at all, but it’s fair to question his ability to stay healthy as a pitcher. His stuff is so good with a 96.8 MPH fastball that he could probably stand to lose a tick or two and still be near elite. He also strikes me as the type who will thrive in his old age with diminished velocity, so I’m far from writing him off as a pitcher, but I do believe you have to factor in the added risk. 2024 Projection: 96/33/94/.277/.380/.538/18

6) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, OF, 25.3 – Maybe it was the shoulder, maybe it was the wrist, or maybe it was the lack of PED’s, but it’s undeniable that Tatis had some of his upside shaved off the top in 2023. His barrel% was down 10.3 percentage points to 11%, his exit velocity was down 2 MPH to 91.9 MPH, his hard hit% was down 6.3 percentage points to 49.3%, and his xwOBA was down .039 to .368. He also wore down as the season went along with a .871 OPS in the 1st half versus a .665 OPS in the 2nd half. But take a look at all of those numbers. Even with him being considerably worse than his prime, he was still an elite fantasy player with 25 homers and 29 steals in 141 games. He missed all of 2022, he had to rehab both his shoulder and wrist surgeries over the off-season, and he also had to deal with so much controversy, whether it was self inflicted or not. He’ll actually be able to have a normal off-season going into 2024, and he’s still only 25 years old, which makes me think what he did in 2023 is his floor. And considering he also got unlucky (.332 wOBA vs. .368 xwOBA which is in the top 10% of the league), his floor is probably even higher than that. The decline in production takes him out of the conversation to be the #1 dynasty player overall, but this is still an easy Top 10 dynasty asset at the very least. 2024 Projection: 98/33/96/.274/.348/.515/31

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-SEPTEMBER 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
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-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

 

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 476 September 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

It’s Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week over on the Patreon, and as usual, I’m going over 400 deep with blurbs for just about every player. Top 30 free here on the Brick Wall. August-Off-Season Rankings are in parenthesis, in that order. Here is the Top 476 September 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

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-TOP 38 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (8/15/23)
-TOP 17 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (8/3/23)
-Off-Season content includes team prospect lists, deep positional rankings, strategy articles, and very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

1) (2) (2) (2) (2) (3) (3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 25.10 – 30/60 (actually 32/63 and counting). He also just cracked the hardest hit ball of the year at 121.2 MPH. With Ohtani’s injury, he’s the clear #1 in dynasty

2) (3) (3) (8) (24) (24) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 23.0 – 1.208 OPS with 3 homers and 4 steals in his last 14 games. We can officially push the shoulder injury to the back of our minds

3) (5) (5) (4) (3) (2) (2) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 22.8 – I saw the heater coming in last month’s update, and it is officially here, slashing .384/.424/.692 with 11 homers, 14 steals, and a 36/8 K/BB in his last 35 games. The plate approach is still below average, but at only 22 years old, I’m betting on improvement there in future years. We still haven’t seen his prime

4) (6) (12) (13) (13) (13) (8) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS/3B, 23.3 – The inevitable breakout hasn’t slowed down in the last month, slashing .322/.369/.628 with 10 homers, 10 steals, and a 15/8 K/BB in 29 games

5) (4) (4) (5) (7) (9) (7) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, SS/OF, 24.7 – He hasn’t performed up to prime levels with a relatively pedestrian .784 OPS, but he’s been on the unlucky side (.337 wOBA vs. .379 xwOBA) and the elite tools are still there with a 92.4 MPH EV and 29.2 ft/sec sprint. I’m buying if there is any type of discount here at all this off-season

6) (7) (8) (9) (4) (4) (6) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 26.8 – Tucker’s about to have the quietest 30/30 season of all time

7) (8) (6) (8) (11) (7) (5) Juan Soto SDP, OF, 24.11 – I hate to say it, but Soto could really be cementing himself as a better real life than fantasy hitter with 6 steals, a 5.8 degree launch (28 homers), and .261 BA (.272 xBA). He’s obviously still a total beast that you want to keep betting on no matter how you slice the numbers, but I think it’s at least worth mentioning

8) (16) (21) (41) (51) (27) (30) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 26.1 – 128 games played has shattered his previous career high, and staying healthy is all he had to do to blow up with 35 homers and 17 steals. Let’s hold our breath on this little quad injury he’s dealing with now as we get deeper into the fantasy playoffs

9) (10) (19) (23) (76) (72) (64) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.8 – MLB debut has gone basically exactly as expected with 11 homers, 24 steals, and a 35.8% K% in 77 games. If the K% scares you off, I get it, but I can’t get the 22 homer, 48 steal pace he’s on as a 21 year old out of my head. The best is yet to come

10) (11) (9) (7) (6) (5) (4) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 26.2 – .955 OPS in 30 games since returning from an oblique injury. He’s elite when healthy, but he’s struggled to remain healthy in his career

11) (13) (13) (18) (21) (17) (17) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 30.11 – 92.6 MPH EV and 38 homers are both career highs

12) (23) (18) (14) (20) (20) (18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 31.0 – We didn’t have to wait until 2024 for the power to return. It’s back now with 10 homers and 1.167 OPS in his last 25 games

13) (22) (16) (11) (14) (8) (10) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 31.4 – Respect for Judge that he isn’t just packing it in for the season with a torn ligament in his toe, and while he hasn’t been as good since returning, he still has 12 homers with a .898 OPS in 34 games

14) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 29.2 – Diagnosed with a torn UCL in his right elbow and will continue to DH until he decides whether or not to get his 2nd Tommy John surgery in 5 years. As we see with Bryce Harper, the odds Ohtani will continue to be an elite hitter are very high, but his ability to stay healthy as a starting pitcher is murkier.

Shadow14) (6) (5) (5) (3) (3) (6) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.2

15) (14) (14) (19) (15) (15) (12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 31.0 – .619 OPS in his last 28 games. It’s not the best year he’s ever had, but everything in his underlying numbers look normal, and as we’ve seen with Mookie, not every year can be a banger

16) (27) (17) (20) (16) (14) (11) Trea Turner PHI, SS, 30.2 – Slashing .368/.404/.783 with 11 homers, 4 steals, and a 23/6 K/BB in his last 26 games. That buy low price I was hoping for this off-season is closing by the day

17) (19) (24) (17) (24) (36) (36) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 24.10 – 38% K% leads the league by far for every pitcher with over 70 IP. Glasnow’s 31.7% is a distant 2nd

18) (12) (10) (10) (5) (6) (9) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 24.6 – The hot streak still hasn’t come, and when you look at his career numbers, it’s hard to deny his monster 2021 season is starting to look like a huge outlier. I still see a .383 xwOBA which is in the top 5% of the league and find it hard to drop him too far down the rankings

19) (15) (15) (16) (10) (10) (14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 26.10 – What’s there to say? Guy just consistently rips the ball

20) (17) (22) (40) (50) (82) (41) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 26.8 – Sprint speed didn’t bounce back from 2022 with it sitting at a decent 27.7 ft/sec, and it’s resulted in only 11 steal attempts in a year where steals have exploded. He’s a perfect 11 for 11 to be fair, and he’s bouncing back everywhere else, but I thought it’s worth keeping in mind

21) (25) (41) (46) (74) (101) (106) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.9 – Holliday is getting promoted to Triple-A after destroying Double-A with a 153 wRC+ in 36 games. He’s now on the precipice of a callup to the bigs. He was in high school last year. Wild

22) (26) (51) (79) (73) (58) (51) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.6 – Hasn’t been called up to Triple-A yet like Holliday, but there is still an outside chance Chourio gets a callup up to the bigs in late September as well. Two 19 year old uber prospects showing out in the playoffs would be insane. I’m getting pumped just thinking about it

23) (20) (25) (25) (29) (37) (37) Freddie Freeman LAD, 1B, 34.0 – In win now mode, I wouldn’t argue putting Freeman as high as 8th overall despite being almost 34 years old. One of the most consistently great players of our generation

24) (24) (26) (27) (31) (38) (38) Corey Seager TEX, SS, 29.2 – I started Seager’s Top 1,000 blurb this off-season by writing, “Seager doesn’t get the respect he deserves in the fantasy world,” and I ended it by writing, “If he hits .300 next year with 35 homers it wouldn’t be surprising at all.” He’s blowing past even my high expectations with a .341 BA and an about 40 homer pace if he didn’t miss time

25) (31) (31) (47) (30) (32) (25) Francisco Lindor NYM, SS, 29.10 – I said above that Tucker might have the quietest 30/30 season of all time, but Lindor is also knocking on the door of 30/30 (25/25 right now), and if he does it, he’ll actually have the quietest 30/30 season of all time

26) (18) (23) (31) (17) (16) (15) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 22.6 – Harris has made incremental improvements almost everywhere you look (EV, launch, K%, BB%, whiff%, chase%). The monster breakout didn’t come this year, but the seeds have certainly been planted for it in the future

27) (28) (28) (30) (38) (44) (68) Matt Olson ATL, 1B, 29.5 – 44 homers is tied for the league lead with Ohtani and is 3 ahead of Alonso

28) (32) (27) (15) (18) (18) (26) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 28.9 – 41 homers is only 3 off the league lead behind Olson and Ohtani. It’s going to be a fun race in September

29) (33) (33) (29) (27) (26) (28) Austin Riley ATL, 3B, 26.5 – 21 homers in his last 64 games. He’s been raking for months now and a 40 homer season is within reach

30) (21) (11) (12) (12) (11) (13) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 25.5 – Bichette’s sprint speed is now in the bottom 41% of the league and he’s 3 for 6 on the bases. The hope for him to contribute in steals is all but gone

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-AUGUST TOP 379 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-7 END OF SEASON STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: AUGUST MAILBAG! (8/25/23)
-TOP 38 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (8/15/23)
-TOP 17 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (8/3/23)
-Off-Season content includes team prospect lists, deep positional rankings, strategy articles, and very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 477 August 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

It’s Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week over on the Patreon, and as usual, I’m going over 400 deep with blurbs for just about everyone. Top 26 are free here on the Brick Wall. July-Off-Season Rankings are in parenthesis, in that order. Here is the Top 477 August 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 357 MID-SEASON DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 17 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (8/3/23)
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/28/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (7/14/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 29.1 – Ohtani is inexplicably getting even better with career bests in EV (94.7 MPH), EV against (86.5 MPH), xwOBA (.437), and K% (23.9%) … and all that to still miss the playoffs

2) (2) (2) (2) (3) (3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 25.9 – It’s insane that Acuna just became an elite contact hitter out of nowhere. He has a 12.2% K% after his previous career best was 23.6%, and he’s doing it while hitting the ball harder than he ever has with a 95.1 MPH EV.

3) (3) (8) (24) (24) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.11 – The shoulder scare seems to be behind him, although he hasn’t been quite as good post break with a .753 OPS in 22 games. It hasn’t slowed him down on the bases though with 10 steals over that time period.

4) (4) (5) (7) (9) (7) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, SS/OF, 24.6 – .615 OPS in his last 36 games. Maybe he needed the PED’s after all, or maybe he’s just been unlucky with a .385 xwOBA vs. .341 wOBA

5) (5) (4) (3) (2) (2) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 22.7 – We’ve been waiting for the heater all year and it might finally be here with 5 homers and a 1.032 OPS in his last 15 games. He hits the ball too hard (92.8 MPH EV) and is too fast (29.6 ft/sec sprint) for him not to get hot like this eventually

6) (12) (13) (13) (13) (8) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS/3B, 23.2 – I’ve been imploring you to buy in every monthly update, and the blow up has finally come for Witt with 8 homers and a 1.001 OPS in his last 30 games. The underlying numbers said this was inevitable

Shadow 6) (5) (5) (3) (3) (6) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.1

7) (8) (9) (4) (4) (6) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 26.7 – The quietest elite player in the game. He’s knocking on the door of a 30/30 season

8) (6) (8) (11) (7) (5) Juan Soto SDP, OF, 24.9 – .421 OBP is 2nd to only Ronald Acuna (.425)

9) (7) (6) (9) (12) (16) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 22.6 – Coming out of his slump with 4 homers and a 1.241 OPS in his last 9 games. He’s actually been on the unlucky side this season with a .354 xwOBA vs. .339 wOBA

10) (19) (23) (76) (72) (64) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.7 – He’s on a full season pace for about 28 homers and 51 stolen bases, and while the hit tool risk is real, his 29.5% whiff% is actually not bad at all. Trea motherf’ing Turner is swinging and missing more than Cruz has this year (29.7% whiff%). Ranking Cruz 10th may be aggressive, but I can only be honest, and his combination of youth and upside is one I’m simply not passing up

11) (9) (7) (6) (5) (4) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 26.1 – Returned from an oblique injury no worse for the wear with 4 homers and a 1.189 OPS in his last 10 games. If you don’t care about steals, he can rank as high as 3rd overall

12) (10) (10) (5) (6) (9) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 24.5 – .387 xwOBA vs. .337 wOBA. He doesn’t have a history of underperforming his underlying numbers. Whatever you do, don’t sell low

13) (13) (18) (21) (17) (17) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 30.10 – Not only hasn’t he slowed down, he’s taken it up a notch with a 1.249 OPS and 11 homers in his last 30 games. He’s on pace for the 2nd best year of his career

14) (14) (19) (15) (15) (12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 30.11 – Down goes Anderson … Down goes Anderson

15) (15) (16) (10) (10) (14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 26.9 – 7 homers with a 1.052 OPS in his last 26 games, and he also stole his first 2 bags of the season over that time period

16) (21) (41) (51) (27) (30) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 26.0 – Robert is just about the lone bright spot in an otherwise disastrous and embarrassing year for Chicago. He’s on pace for 44 homers and 20 steals

17) (22) (40) (50) (82) (41) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 26.7 – He debuted so young that you forget he’s just entering his man muscle years. 37 homer pace is set to shatter his previous career high of 30

18) (23) (31) (17) (16) (15) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 22.5 – I keep seeing Harris included in trades where he isn’t getting nearly his due respect. He’s slashing .369/.417/.585 with 2 homers, 2 steals, and a 11/6 K/BB in his last 20 games. He crushes the ball, he’s fast, he has plus contact rates, and he’s still only 22 years old

19) (24) (17) (24) (36) (36) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 24.9 – The undisputed top dog with a 39.3% K% and 97.3 MPH heat. Gausman’s 32.8% K% is a distant 2nd among qualified starters

20) (25) (25) (29) (37) (37) Freddie Freeman LAD, 1B, 33.11 – In win now mode, I wouldn’t argue putting Freeman 3rd overall despite being almost 34 years old. One of the most consistently great players of our generation

21) (11) (12) (12) (11) (13) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 25.4 – Dodged a bullet with his knee injury not considered serious. What is serious though is that he all of a sudden became slow with a below average 27 ft/sec sprint, leading to only 3 steals in a year where everyone else is running

22) (16) (11) (14) (8) (10) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 31.3 – Returned early from a torn ligament in his big toe even though he isn’t 100% yet and is understandably struggling with a .685 OPS in his last 9 games. Maybe they should shut it down and let him heal up for the next 8 years of his mega contract

23) (18) (14) (20) (20) (18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 30.11 – The guy has an elite .378 xwOBA in a year where he clearly is well below 100% returning early from Tommy John surgery. There is little doubt the homer power will fully return in 2024

24) (26) (27) (31) (38) (38) Corey Seager TEX, SS, 29.2 – The career year continues with 8 homers in his last 15 games. His .441 xwOBA is behind only Judge and Acuna. I started Seager’s Top 1,000 blurb this off-season by writing, “Seager doesn’t get the respect he deserves in the fantasy world,” and I ended it by writing, “If he hits .300 next year with 35 homers it wouldn’t be surprising at all.” He’s blowing past even my high expectations

25) (41) (46) (74) (101) (106) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.8 – Destroying Double-A, slashing .396/.448/.642 with 3 homers, 0 steals, and a 13.8%/8.6% K%/BB% in 13 games. He has plenty of competition for this top spot with Chourio right on his heels, but he’s not giving an inch

26) (51) (79) (73) (58) (51) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.5 – This man does not like his balls tacked as he’s back to going nuclear with the regular ball, slashing .424/.480/.717 with 6 homers, 9 steals, and a 12/9 K/BB in his last 21 games

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 357 MID-SEASON DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 17 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (8/3/23)
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/28/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (7/14/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 473 July 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

Here at Imaginary Brick Wall we’re celebrating the 4th of July with Dynasty Baseball Rankings! Would you expect anything else? As usual, I will go over 400 deep with blurbs for just about every player. June, May, April, and Off-Season Rankings are in parenthesis, in that order. The Top 473 just hit the Patreon today (Top 25 free here on IBW). Here are the Top 473 July 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 331 JUNE DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (6/29/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JUNE MAILBAG! (6/27/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (6/16/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

1) (1) (1) (1) (1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 29.0 – Acuna was starting to just enter Ohtani’s rearview mirror for the #1 overall dynasty player, so Ohtani went out and hit another gear, slashing .378/.472/.966 with 19 homers in his last 31 games at the plate, and striking out 22 batters in his last two starts on the mound. The undisputed king

2) (2) (2) (3) (3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 25.8 – Acuna simply can’t match Ohtani’s upside. He doesn’t pitch. He slashed .365/.439/.720 with 10 homers and 19 steals in his last 26 games and managed to lose ground

3) (8) (24) (24) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.10 – Backed up my aggressive #3 ranking of him in June by slashing .304/.360/.674 with 8 homers and 8 steals in his last 24 games. But now he’s experiencing shoulder soreness in his surgically repaired shoulder, which really can’t be sugarcoated. Thankfully it doesn’t seem that serious, but I can’t lie, it’s a bit scary

4) (5) (7) (9) (7) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, SS/OF, 24.5 – Either he was being honest about his PED use, or he never needed them anyway, or he’s still cheating, because post PED suspension Tatis doesn’t look all that different from pre PED suspension Tatis with 16 homers and 14 steals in 64 games. Plus, his hit tool is better than ever with a career best 19.2% K%

5) (4) (3) (2) (2) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 22.6 – Hasn’t taken a step forward in year 2 and hasn’t really had a true hot streak yet this year, but nothing in the underlying numbers says there should be any level of concern. The guy has a 92.6 MPH EV and 29.6 ft/sec sprint which has led the way to a 25 homer and 37 steal pace on the season

Shadow5) (5) (3) (3) (6) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.0 – 31 homers leads all of baseball

6) (8) (11) (7) (5) Juan Soto SDP, OF, 24.8 – The early season slump is a long forgotten memory with a 1.048 OPS in his last 23 games

7) (6) (9) (12) (16) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 22.5 – Slumping since the last update, slashing .216/.260/.352 with 2 homers and 5 steals in his last 22 games, but he still had a 12/6 K/BB over that time, so the slump isn’t going to last long

8) (9) (4) (4) (6) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 26.6 – As expected, the homer power has ticked up since the last update with 5 homers in his last 25 games. He’s slashing .285/.361/.466 with 12 homers and 14 steals in 82 games and it doesn’t even feel like he’s having that good of a season

9) (7) (6) (5) (4) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 26.0 – Hasn’t played since June 8th with an oblique injury that is expected to keep him out until mid July

10) (10) (5) (6) (9) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 24.4 – The guy has a 94.4 MPH EV with a 15.4% K% and .398 xwOBA (top 4% of the league). He’s not going to be held down for long. I’m buying

11) (12) (12) (11) (13) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 25.3 – He’s improving his strength, taking the hit tool to the next level with a .317 BA and .323 xBA, but he hasn’t improved his weaknesses (BB% and launch), and he’s also not running (3 steals)

12) (13) (13) (13) (8) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS/3B, 23.1 – .811 OPS in his last 20 games. .305 wOBA vs. .355 xwOBA. I was buying last month and I’ll continue to buy this month

13) (18) (21) (17) (17) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 30.9 – 92.4 MPH EV is a career high. .400 xwOBA is in the top 3% of the league. That gradual decline he was on has been completely reversed

14) (19) (15) (15) (12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 30.10 – 1.157 OPS with 7 homers and 4 steals in his last 22 games. He’s still elite

15) (16) (10) (10) (14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 26.8 – .943 OPS in 25 games since the last update. I warned against selling too low on him

16) (11) (14) (8) (10) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 31.2 – Suffered a torn ligament in his big toe and his return date is uncertain as of now. He’s resumed some light baseball activities of late, but it seems like an August return would be a best case scenario

17) (20) (16) (14) (11) Trea Turner PHI, SS, 30.0 – Hitting .292 with 3 homers and 10 steals in his last 24 games. It’s not his best season, but nothing it too concerning in his underlying numbers, and the upside is too high to sell at any type of discount

18) (14) (20) (20) (18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 30.10 – .669 OPS with 0 homers in his last 31 games. I think we have to grade Harper’s season on a curve considering how fast he came back from Tommy John surgery. It might not be until 2024 until he’s truly fully healthy

19) (23) (76) (72) (64) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.6 – 31.1% K% with a 30.3% whiff% is actually encouraging to me because there was potential for it to truly balloon in the majors. 30.8 ft/sec sprint speed leads the league by a good margin and his 116.6 Max EV is in the top 2% of the league. He’s living up to the hype

20) (22) (22) (25) (39) Randy Arozarena TBR, OF, 28.4 – His last month wasn’t particularly notable with a .848 OPS, 5 homers, and 2 steals in 25 games, but it just continues to lock in his status as a near elite dynasty asset

21) (41) (51) (27) (30) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 25.11 – 1.132 OPS with 11 homers and 6 steals in his last 26 games

22) (40) (50) (82) (41) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 26.6 – .975 OPS with 9 homers and 5 steals in his last 25 games

23) (31) (17) (16) (15) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 22.4 – Slashing .407/.416/.674 with 5 homers and 5 steals in his last 23 games. He’s back

24) (17) (24) (36) (36) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 24.8 – The rough patch proved to be just that with a 1.83 ERA and 28/3 K/BB in his last 19.2 IP. Undisputed top dynasty pitcher in the game

25) (25) (29) (37) (37) Freddie Freeman LAD, 1B, 33.10 – The man is on pace for 20 stolen bases now too. Just not fair. He’s almost 34 years old, but even this ranking might be too low with zero signs of decline

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 331 JUNE DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (6/29/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JUNE MAILBAG! (6/27/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (6/16/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (6/12/23)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (6/12/23):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 456 JUNE DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 314 MAY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 44 ROOKIE BALL/DSL PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (5/26/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG! (5/16/23) 
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (6/16/23)

Luis Guanipa ATL, OF, 17.6 – Guanipa is the early favorite to be THE prospect breakout from the DSL. He’s hit in all 4 games and is slashing .333/.368/.778 with 2 homers, 4 steals, and a 21.1%/5.3% K%/BB%. It’s still early, but I loved him coming into the season as my #2 international target (Sebastian Walcott was my #1 target), and he received a large signing bonus with the tools to back it up. Sample is still super small and DSL stats are the most untrustworthy, but if you’re shooting for the moon, Guanipa could be your guy.

Jun-seok Shim PIT, RHP, 19.2 – Shim made his pro debut on Saturday and went nuclear, going 4 IP with 0 hits, 0 ER, and a 8/0 K/BB in the FCL (stateside rookie ball). He has an innings eater build at 6’4”, 215 pounds, and he has the big fastball befitting of his stature with mid 90’s heat. The curve is his best secondary, and he backed up his scouting report in his first outing showing good control. The ingredients are most certainly here for him to truly explode. At the minimum, keep a close watch on him, and it might be worth scooping him now.

Michael Arroyo SEA, SS/3B, 18.7 – Here’s what I wrote about Arroyo in my Top 44 Rookie Ball/DSL Prospects Rankings (Patreon), ranking him 14th overall:

“Upside – Gabriel Gonzalez

Downside – The plus hit tool slides more towards above average, and he doesn’t have the explosive tools to make up for it

Prime Projection: 82/18/73/.273/.339/.435/6″ …

The upside is winning out with him slashing .636/.692/.909 with 1 homer, 3 steals, and a 7.7%/7.5% K%/BB% in 4 games at stateside rookie. It’s a repeat of what he did in the DSL, and it sure looks like he will follow in Gabriel Gonzalez’ footsteps as a plus to double plus hit tool riser.

Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.9 – Carroll rose all the way to 3rd overall on the Updated Top 456 Dynasty Baseball Rankings that dropped Friday on the Patreon, and he didn’t let the high ranking go to his head, smacking 3 more hits on Sunday at 109.8 MPH (single), 107.4 MPH (triple), and 103.6 MPH (double). He also stole his 19th bag. He’s on pace to go .308/32/47 on the season with the underlying numbers to back it up. Only Ohtani (#1) and Acuna (#2) can match this type of production …

Wander Franco TBR, SS, 22.3 – … don’t let Franco hear me say that, because he would have every right to take that personally. He went 2 for 4 with a 371 foot bullet shot for his for his 8th homer of the year. He’s also stolen 22 bags in 63 games, which takes his elite hit tool profile with improving power to the next level. An 88.2 MPH EV with a 8 degree launch makes his power a little shakier than some of the other elite options, which keeps him 6th overall on the Updated Dynasty Rankings.

Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 21.11 – Gunnar went 3 for 5 with a 113.8 MPH, 462 foot rocket, and all of a sudden his season numbers are starting to look pretty damn good with his OPS over .800 at .804. Over his last 15 games he’s slashing .354/.404/.729 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 13/4 K/BB. He’s finally starting to run more and also get the strikeouts in check. I mean, he ain’t Corbin Carroll, that ship has sailed, but I hope you bought low when you could

Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.5 – Are you even allowed to write an article about baseball without mentioning Elly De La Cruz? Dude is the talk of the town and his elite athleticism has started to transcend just baseball circles. He collected 2 more hits yesterday, one of which came at 109.7 MPH. That’s a weakly hit dribbler for Elly. He also stole his 3rd bag. He’s now slashing .364/.481/.636 with 1 homer, 3 steals, and a 37%/18.5% K%/BB% in 27 PA. The K% is high, but the 33.3% whiff% isn’t quite in the cover your eyes territory, and he’s walking a ton too. It’s just about as good of an MLB debut as we could have hoped for. He ranked 23rd overall on the Updated Rankings. He deserves a truly elite return in trades.

Rayner Arias SFG, OF, 17.2 – The plus bloodlines win again. Arias comes from a baseball family and he’s showing off that high baseball IQ and advanced beyond his years DNA, slashing .438/.550/.875 with 2 homers, 1 steal, and a 10%/20% K%/BB% in 4 DSL games. He’s not just a high IQ guy though, he’s also a projectable 6’1”, 180 pounds with a big righty swing that has clear power potential. He looks like a good one.

Gabriel Lara NYY, OF, 17.6 – Lara is another early DSL pop up, slashing .438/.550/.875 with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 10%/15% K%/BB% in 4 games. He has truly elite speed with a good feel to hit coming from a quick, compact lefty swing. He’s only 5’9”, but he’s not a skinny nothing, he definitely has some muscle. Carlos Jorge and Jonatan Clase would be the upside here, maybe even with a better hit tool.

Keiner Delgado NYY, 2B/3B, 19.5 – Delgado’s truly elite plate approach is transferring to stateside rookie ball, slashing .333/.538/.556 with 1 homer, 4 steals, and an 11.5%/30.8% K%/BB% in 5 games. He remains a year older than optimal, and while age for level is important, you don’t want to be a total slave to it. He’s also a small guy at 5’8”, so the power upside isn’t huge. Regardless, he’s an excellent athlete with the potential for an elite plate approach with speed and some pop.

Enmanuel Tejeda NYY, SS, 18.5 – Tejada is also backing up his strong DSL showing in 2022, slashing .438/.591/.813 with 2 homers, 4 steals, and a 22.7%/22.7% K%/BB% in 5 games in stateside rookie. He’s not a monster tools guy, but he has the potential to be that solid across the board contributor at peak.

Abraham Nunez CHW, OF, 17.3 – Okay, enough with these little guy breakouts. Nunez is a projectable 6’3”, 170 pounds with baseball bloodlines (his dad played in the majors) and good athleticism. He’s slashing .500/.647/.917 with 1 homer, 3 steals, and a 11.8%/29.4% K%/BB% in 4 DSL games. He surely checks a lot of boxes. Keep an eye out.

Luis Baez HOU, OF, 19.5 – I couldn’t do this mini Rookie Ball Rundown without mentioning the current rookie ball home run leader, Luis Baez. He’s jacked 4 homers in just 5 games in stateside rookie coming off a season where he jacked 9 homers in 58 games in the DSL. He has the raw power to back up the numbers at 6’1”, 215 pounds with a powerful righty swing. The hit tool is still a bit of a question mark with a poor 25.2%/6.3% K%/BB% in 2022, but it’s been better so far in 2023 (20.8%/16.7%). He’s also a year older than optimal and is more physically mature than most of his competition. But hitting bombs like this will certainly get you on the radar.

Jack Suwinski PITT, OF, 24.10 – Everybody was looking to put Suwinski in the grave, but he refused to comply, continuing his re-reemergence yesterday on a 2 for 4 day with a 108.6 MPH homer. He has 6 homers with a 1.142 OPS over his last 14 games. The strikeout rate is still too high at 32% and he isn’t running as much as optimal, but the guy can mash.

Braxton Garrett MIA, LHP, 25.10 – 5.1 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 9/1 K/BB vs. CHW. Garrett’s been the epitome of the crafty lefty this year, throwing a 6 pitch mix without any of the pitches cracking even 90 MPH (89.9 MPH sinker), but it gets the job done with an enticing 29.4% whiff% and 4.9% BB%. He’s not exactly a world beater with a 4.10 ERA and 4.73 xERA in 63.2 IP, but the guy knows the art of pitching, With Trevor Rogers on the comeback trail, Miami will have a decision to make on their rotation, because they don’t have a spot for him right now.

Nolan Jones COL, OF, 25.1 – Who would have thunk the 24/25 year old hitting for a 175 wRC+ at Triple-A, and who has produced his entire career, would actually be good? Nice of Colorado to actually get around to playing him, and surprise surprise, he continues to be good. He went 2 for 4 with a 111.6 MPH homer yesterday and is now slashing .360/.407/.680 with 4 homers, 4 steals, and a 31.5%/7.4% K%/BB% in 15 games. Most surprising is how much he’s running, and he has the above average speed to back it up with a 27.9 ft/sec sprint. There is still hit tool risk, but the very reasonable 26.9% whiff% is comforting it won’t get too crazy. I’m buying.

Ezequiel Tovar COL, SS, 21.10 – Tovar has slowly but surely pulled himself out of that early season hole he dug himself, and his 2 for 4 day with a 424 foot homer off Blake Snell has finally brought his season OPS over .700 to .707. Over his last 21 games he’s slashing .333/.375/.533 with 2 homers, 2 steals, and a 19/5 K/BB. I’m not gonna lie, the power/speed combo is still lacking, and the plate approach has been mediocre at best, so I’m not exactly buying, but he’s certainly finding his groove against MLB pitchers.

Zach Neto LAA, SS, 22.4 – Neto has just been laying down a rock solid foundation over his first 51 MLB games, and now he’s ready to build on it, blowing up yesterday with a 2 homer game. One was hit at 106.9 MPH and the other at 105.9 MPH. It’s actually quite remarkable what he’s doing against MLB pitching considering how quickly he was rushed through the minors, and he didn’t even come from a major conference in college. An 89.6 MPH EV with an 11.4 degree launch and 18.9% K% is the exact across the board profile I expected when I ranked him 3rd overall on my FYPD Rankings this off-season.

J.D. Martinez LAD, DH, 35.9 – 0 for 4 with 0 homers. I thought it was notable that he actually had a bad day, because he hasn’t had many since I named him a player to target in my Top Dynasty Baseball Targets (Patreon), ripping 7 homers in 15 games since then. His .400 xwOBA is in the top 3% of the league and his 93 MPH EV is a career high. Dodgers strike again.

Luis Matos SFG, OF, 21.4 – Let’s just pretend 2022 never happened. Matos has picked up from where his 2021 season ended, cracking 2 more homers yesterday at Triple-A on a 3 for 5 day. And just check out the vicious swings he used to unload on those two dingers. He’s not a huge guy, but he definitely packs a punch. He’s now blowing the doors off Triple-A, slashing .396/.434/.660 with 6 homers, 6 steals, and a 7%/6.1% K%/BB%. He might have officially made it to his destination from that elite prospect beeline he was on in 2021 with power, speed, and elite contact. A callup to the majors could be in the cards in the 2nd half.

Junior Caminero TBR, 3B, 19.11 – Caminero sliced his 2nd homer in 12 games since getting the call to Double-A. He has the type of power where he doesn’t even need to get all of it to hit it out. Double-A has definitely slowed him down a bit with a 104 wRC+, but the kid is still 19 years old. He’s not the perfect prospect with a mediocre plate approach, relatively elevated groundball rates, and limited speed, but the guy is a masher no matter how you slice it.

Termarr Johnson PIT, 2B/SS, 19.0 – Johnson hit an absolute no doubter to the tiki lounge in deep centerfield for his 3rd homer in 37 games at Single-A. It hasn’t exactly been the season we wanted to see from the uberhyped prospect with a 32.3% K%, but he still has a 126 wRC+ despite the swing and miss. I warned the hit tool wasn’t as good as advertised this off-season, so I wasn’t completely caught off guard by this, but I’m still buying the talent. He turned 19 yesterday, and I respect a player who finds ways to produce even when they aren’t completely locked in yet. Something tells me he’s about to hit his first real groove of the season. Don’t sell low.

Jake Eder MIA, LHP, 24.8 – Eder made his long awaited season debut earlier this month coming off Tommy John surgery and a broken foot, and he looked good in his 2nd outing on Saturday, going 4 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 3/1 K/BB at Single-A on a rehab assignment. The slide piece is still absolutely filthy and the fastball sat in the low to mid 90’s range. He was cracking Top 100’s before going down with the injury, and he has the potential to get back there if he keeps performing when he gets back to Double-A.

Anthony Solometo PIT, LHP, 20.5 – 4 IP, 5 hits, 0 ER, 7/0 K/BB at High-A. How can you not love watching this guy pitch? He now has a 2.30 ERA with a 29.1%/10.7% K%/BB% in 58.2 IP on the season, and I think he’s now officially knocking on the door of Top 100 status if he isn’t there already. I’ve been targeting him since before he even got drafted, and I’m still buying hard.

Noah Schultz CHW, LHP, 19.8 – My top pitching target in this year’s first year player draft class, Schultz finally made his season debut earlier this month, and it was worth the wait. The guy looks like Baby Randy Johnson on the mound at 6’9”, 220 pounds with a mid 90’s fastball, a potentially plus slider and developing change. He’s dominated in his 2 short outings, going 4 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB. The control has looked pretty good too. I implore you to get in now. He’s about to blow up.

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 1,000 Rankings for 2023 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues

I gave you a day to catch your breath with the Top 500 2023 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings dropping on Wednesday. Now it’s time to unveil the Top 1,000 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings over on the Patreon. These lists will be released here on Imaginary Brick Wall in mid to late March. Here is the Top 1,000 Rankings for 2023 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 500 2023 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
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-All-In-One Rankings Spreadsheet
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1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 28.9 – Ohtani came into 2022 as my #1 overall dynasty player, and he not only hung onto the top spot, but he somehow managed to pull even further away from the pack. He became arguably the best pitcher in baseball with a 2.33 ERA and 33.2%/6.7% K%/BB% in 166 IP. He also continued to be among the best hitters in baseball with a .385 xwOBA which was 6th best overall. It’s not an exaggeration to say that Ohtani is the greatest player to ever play the game. 2023 Projection: 94/33/99/.270/.361/.527/18–13/2.94/1.03/199 in 161 IP

2) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 22.3 – Prospects can break your heart, but the season Julio just had is why we play the game. There is nothing more satisfying in all of fantasy sports than acquiring a young prospect, letting him develop in your farm system, and then watching him explode in his MLB debut. And explode is exactly what he did, slashing .284/.345/.509 with 28 homers, 25 steals, and a 25.9%/7.1% K%/BB% in 132 games. He has elite speed (29.8 ft/sec sprint speed) and elite exit velocity numbers (92/96.2 MPH AVG/FB EV). He closed out the season with a bang, putting up a 1.202 OPS in his final 19 games, which could be foreshadowing for what he has in store for 2023. The only quibble is that he ran far less in the 2nd half with only 4 steals in 7 attempts in his final 50 games, but considering how fast he is, I wouldn’t get too hung up on that. 2023 Projection: 96/32/98/.278/.353/.522/26

3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 25.3 – Acuna underwent knee surgery for a torn ACL in late July 2021, and he was understandably not 100% in 2022. It’s seriously impressive that he was able to make his debut in late April, but that is where the impressing ended. He put up a career worst .764 OPS with only 15 homers in 119 games. His launch angle tanked 7.4 degrees to 10.8 degrees and his sprint speed dropped 0.9 ft/sec to 28.5 ft/sec. It was far from a complete disaster though. His .366 xwOBA was in the top 5% of the league, his 24.9% whiff% was a career best, and he still ran a ton with 29 steals. With a normal off-season and more time away from that surgery, I would be shocked if Acuna doesn’t bounce back to elite levels. 2023 Projection: 106/32/91/.279/.362/.511/33

4) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 25.9 – Alvarez’s .462 xwOBA was bested only by Aaron Judge by .001. His 95.2 MPH EV was only topped by Aaron Judge. He was the 2nd best hitter in baseball this year, behind you guessed it, Aaron Judge. I think you get the point. He’s a 6’5”, 225 pound beast who hits the ball with superhuman strength, and he also has an elite plate approach with a 18.9%/13.9% K%/BB%. The surgically repaired knees might become an issue down the line, but they clearly aren’t going to slow him down anytime soon. 2023 Projection: 102/40/111/.302/.400/.578/1

5) Juan Soto SDP, OF, 24.5 – Soto’s numbers fell off hard in San Diego with a .778 OPS and only 6 homers in 52 games. They have one of the worst hitter’s ballparks in baseball, so it would be easy to feel a little trepidation, but betting against Soto seems foolish. His underlying numbers were still elite in San Diego with a 92.1 MPH EV and 14.9%/19.3% K%/BB% in 228 PA. He was very unlucky all year with a .249 BABIP (career .309 BABIP). His .401 xwOBA was the 4th best mark in baseball. The dude is still silly elite. 2023 Projection: 107/31/98/.283/.420/.521/10

6) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 26.3 – Tucker got considerably slower this year with his sprint speed dropping off a cliff to a well below average 26.4 ft/sec, but he still thrived on the bases with a career high 25 steals in 29 attempts. It’s a reminder that there is a lot more to base stealing than just being fast. He combines his base stealing skills with a near elite plate approach (15.6%/9.7% K%/BB%), above average exit velocity (90 MPH), and a launch made for dingers (19 degree launch with 30 homers). People have been slow to buy into Tucker’s elite status, but 2022 should cement it. 2023 Projection: 82/32/97/.271/.340/.507/21

Shadow6) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 28.9 – This is where I would take Ohtani as a hitter only or in a weekly lineup league. 2023 Projection: 94/33/99/.270/.361/.527/18–13/2.94/1.03/199 in 161 IP

7) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS/3B, 22.10 – Bobby Witt was the fastest man in the majors with a 30.4 ft/sec sprint speed (actually tied for first with Jose Siri and Bubba Thompson), at least until someone by the name of Corbin Carroll showed up and put up a 30.7 mark. It led to 30 stolen bases in 37 attempts, and with the new stolen base rules, I’m hesitant to even put a ceiling on what he’s capable of in 2023. There were some swing and miss concerns prior to his debut, but he proved that won’t be an issue with an above average 21.4% K%. His power was good but not great with 20 homers in 150 games, and there is a little Cody Bellinger risk here, in that he hits the ball in the air a lot with a relatively low FB/LD EV (92.6 MPH). Witt’s 16.8 degree launch angle isn’t as extreme as Bellinger’s 20.3 degree launch, his 113.7 Max EV (top 8% of the league) was much higher than Bellinger’s 107.3 MPH Max, and I’m only expecting continued improvements from the still 22 year old Witt. He has scary high upside, and we just saw the floor. 2023 Projection: 87/26/90/.267/.331/.472/36

8) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, SS/OF, 24.3 – Tatis seems to have a karmic black cloud hanging over his head. He had an injured shoulder that kept popping out which he refused to get surgery for, then he fractured his wrist in a motorcycle accident, and then he got popped for a PED suspension which will keep him out 20 games into 2023. They do say bad news comes in 3’s. It does seem like he is trying to make amends now though. He agreed to get shoulder surgery and also underwent wrist surgery. The thing that worries me a little bit is that the doctors were concerned the first wrist surgery wouldn’t hold, so he had to have a 2nd one where they inserted a screw. He’s collecting enough red flags to open a Six Flags Great Adventure amusement park. Despite it all, I still find it hard to believe his best days are behind him. He’s a 24 year old elite athlete with baseball bloodlines. It would be too risk averse to sell low or write him off when the upside is something like 9 more years of elite production. I would take any discount on Tatis that I could get. 2023 Projection: 86/28/84/.273/.355/.558/19

9) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 24.1 – Vlad gave up almost all of the gains he made in 2021. His EV dropped 2.3 MPH to 92.8 MPH, his launch angle dropped 5.1 degrees to 4.3 degrees, and his xwOBA dropped .069 points to .348. He’s still a beast who played in 160 games and jacked 32 homers with a 16.4% K%. He also stole a career high 8 bags. This is basically his floor, and we saw the type of year he could put up when everything comes together. 2023 Projection: 96/34/104/.282/.349/.510/5

10) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 30.11 – Judge hit only 62 homers this year, not even coming close to the home run record of 73. His cute little 207 wRC+ was bested by Barry Bonds 5 times. He also stole only 16 bases, falling short of the vaunted 20/20 season. It was just a disappointment all around, and as a Yankees fan, it’s unacceptable. He wasn’t worth a dollar more than $359,999,999 😉  2023 Projection: 111/43/109/.286/.398/.562/11

11) Trea Turner PHI, SS, 29.9 – It wasn’t Turner’s best statistical season with a 6 year low .809 OPS, a career low 27 steals, and a career worst 26.3% whiff%, but nothing was that far off from career norms. There are also zero signs that he’s slowing down with a super elite 30.3 ft/sec sprint speed, so who knows what he’ll be capable of with the new stolen base rules. There is a chance we see some truly special stolen base seasons in 2023, and Turner is in prime position to lead that charge. His move to Philadelphia doesn’t change his value at all for me. 2023 Projection: 103/23/87/.293/.344/.486/36

12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 30.6 – Ramirez jammed his thumb at the end of June, which would eventually require off-season surgery, and he wasn’t the same player after that. He had a 1.039 OPS before the injury and a .766 OPS after the injury. He had his usual great year regardless with 29 homers, 20 steals, and a 139 wRC+, but his underlying numbers fell off hard with a below average 87.7 MPH EV and a barely above average .320 xwOBA. Because it is very clear what caused the drop off, and because he should have plenty of time to fully recover this off-season, I wouldn’t drop him at all in rankings. Although this is how a decline can start, with injuries piling up and maybe not healing as well, or as fast as they did when you were in your 20’s. 2023 Projection: 93/30/100/.274/.353/.519/22

13) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 25.1 – Bichette was on his way to a disappointing season before going Mach 5 in his final 42 games, slashing .386/.436/.608 with 7 homers, 6 steals, and a 29/13 K/BB. He had a .716 OPS in the 117 games before that. The plate approach isn’t great (22.2%/5.9% K%/BB%), the launch angle could be better (8.5 degrees), and he’s not that fast (27.5 ft/sec sprint speed), but what he does best is smoking the ball with a 91.9/95.2 MPH AVG/FB EV, and that is almost the most important thing. I’ll keep betting on a 25 year old who crushes the ball with a good feel to hit and some speed. 2023 Projection: 97/27/97/.293/.340/.502/17

14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 26.5 – Devers is as easy as it comes to evaluate. He demolishes the ball with an elite 93.1 MPH EV, and his 11.3 degree launch angle is geared for both power and average. He also maintained the improved plate approach from 2021 with an 18.6%/8.1% K%/BB%. He’s that perfect combo of being young and established, plus he strikes me as the type who will be able to hit from a wheelchair, meaning I would bet on him producing well into his 30’s. 2023 Projection: 89/29/105/.284/.348/.517/4

15) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 22.1 – Harris got a surprise call-up straight from Double-A and he hit the ground running in the majors, slashing .297/.339/.515 with 19 homers, 20 steals, and a 24.3%/4.8% K%/BB% in 114 games. He has an elite 29.4 ft/sec sprint speed and he hits the ball damn hard with a 89.5/95.8 MPH AVG/FB EV. Both is GB% (56.2% vs. 45.9%) and BB% (4.8% vs. 8.7%) were much better at Double-A than in the majors, so I think it is fair to expect improvements in that area as he refines his game. It’s bonkos he was even able to do what he did as a 21 year old with 196 total AB’s in the upper minors, all at Double-A. He’s an elite dynasty asset. 2023 Projection: 93/22/79/.279/.336/.472/28

16) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 22.1 – A quad injury knocked Franco out for almost all of June and then a wrist injury which required surgery knocked him out for 2 months from early July to early September. The injuries contributed to his mediocre season with his EV tanking to 85.1 MPH after returning from the wrist injury, but it wasn’t the only reason, as he had only 5 homers in 58 games before going down with that injury. He’s simply not geared to be a power hitter at this point in his career, but he’s still so young it would be silly to cap his power upside at this point. He makes so much contact with a 9.6% K% (top 1% of the league) that he doesn’t need to have an extreme launch angle to knock a healthy amount of dingers out, and an 8.2 degree launch is far from hopeless. He also stole 8 bags in 83 games, giving hope he will be more of a mid teens guy than a 10 or under guy. It wasn’t the breakout we were hoping for, but we can’t pine for prospects to get called up in their early 20’s before their prime, and then bemoan the fact they aren’t putting up prime numbers immediately. I’m staying patient and holding strong on his ranking. 2023 Projection: 92/18/76/.292/.348/.447/16 Prime Projection: 106/24/85/.314/.378/.492/15

17) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 30.6 – It’s clear that Betts is entering the back nine of his career, but a superstar talent like this has some tricks in their bag to slow that decline. He cranked a career high 35 homers in 142 games, and he did it by jumping on the first pitch 30.4% of the time, which is a career high by far (19.1% in 2021). The signs of decline could be seen with his sprint speed not bouncing back from an injury filled 2021, and he now has very slightly below average speed (49th percentile). His 14 steal attempts were a career low (other than the shortened 2020). His BA didn’t bounce back either, sitting at .269, and his xBA is saying it isn’t a fluke (.254 xBA). The adjustments Betts’ is making gives hope he can maintain elite, or near elite levels for a few more years, but it’s hard to completely ignore the red flags that have popped up here and there. 2023 Projection: 110/30/78/.277/.351/.527/14

18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 30.6 – Odds are Bryce Harper is on a win now team in Dynasty, and with news he’s likely to be out for a few months into 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, I would go sniffing around to see if you can land him for any kind of a discount. Tommy John surgery is not nearly as big of a deal for hitters as it pitchers, and it’s very likely he returns to prime form. It also feels like the guy is 35 years old already because he’s been in the league since he was 19, but he’s still only 30 and should have several more years of elite production left. He’s in that true elite of the elite class of player that has a real chance of killing it deep into his 30’s. Harper would have been essentially untouchable before this injury, but now the window is open just a crack, and I would go after him regardless of where my team is in the contention cycle. 2023 Projection: 56/18/54/.281/.380/.525/6

19) Corbin Burnes MIL, RHP, 28.5 – Burnes took a step back in 2022 from super elite, to merely elite with a 2.94 ERA and 30.5%/6.4% K%/BB%. He did so while notching a career high by far 202 IP. He has a perfect mix of safety, upside, track record, and youth that no other pitcher can quite match, making him my #1 overall Dynasty pitcher. 2023 Projection: 14/2.86/.0.95/240 in 195 IP

20) Shane McClanahan TBR, LHP, 25.11 – McClanahan not only backed up his 2021 breakout, he went supernova, ascending to true ace status. He put up a 2.54 ERA with a 30.3%/5.8% K%/BB% in 166.1 IP. The one snag is that a shoulder injury knocked him out for a few weeks in September, and he wasn’t quite the same when he returned with a 5.21 ERA and 12/8 K/BB in his final 19 IP. I’m not really concerned because he was throwing even harder with a 97.2 MPH fastball and he faced a very tough schedule (Toronto twice and Houston twice). He might have been my top pitcher without the injury, but he’ll have to settle for #2. 2023 Projection: 13/3.05/0.99/224 in 185 IP

21) Manny Machado SDP, 3B, 30.9 – Here’s how I closed out the Machado blurb in my 2022 Top 1,000 Rankings, “He’s been a bit inconsistent in his career, going back and forth between great years and solid years since 2017, so if the trend holds, he is in for one hell of a 2022”  … well, the trend held and Machado had a hell of a season with a career high 152 wRC+. I could do an extensive analysis of the underlying numbers, but I’m afraid there are large forces at play here. Who am I to question the universe? Machado is due for one of his good but not standout seasons in 2023 (and his underlying numbers agree with a career low .338 xwOBA and 20.7% K%, which is good but not standout). 2023 Projection: 90/33/95/.281/.350/.508/8

22) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 21.9 – Nothing makes me more comfortable about a prospect than one who gets called up to the majors and immediately puts up elite exit velocity numbers. Henderson smacked the crap outta the ball to the tune of a 92.4/98.1 MPH AVG/FB EV in 132 MLB PA. That would almost be enough for me to love love a player on it’s own, a la Oneil Cruz, but Henderson does just about everything else well too. His hit tool improved majorly this year, dropping his K% from 30.1% in 2021 in mostly the lower minors, to 23.1% in 2022 in the upper minors. The improvements transferred to the majors with a very reasonable 26.6% whiff% and 25.8% K%. He’s put up high walk rates his entire career and he’s also very fast with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. He’s almost a flawless prospect. I say “almost,” because he’s struggled vs. lefties in his career, but he’s still very young, so improvement is almost certainly coming, and it’s also a testament to how badly he decimates righties. 2023 Projection: 82/25/85/.262/.347/.473/14 Prime Projection: 106/32/102/.278/.383/.518/16

23) Jacob deGrom TEX, RHP, 34.10 – deGrom is 34 years old, but he is in that tier of elite athlete that could continue to play at a high level into their 40’s. Just look at Tom Brady. He’s 45 and he has 300 pound, sub 5.0 forty guys trying to take his head off. deGrom is in that super elite class, and he doesn’t have to deal with standing strong in the pocket with an unprotected blitz descending upon him. He just put up an absolutely silly 42.7%/3.3% K%/BB% with a 0.75 WHIP in 64.1 IP. Both his 2021 and 2022 have been injury shortened seasons with a UCL and shoulder injury, but I think those numbers speak to themselves as to how the arm was feeling. He could easily have another 5 elite years in the tank, and why not 10. It’s not like young pitching is really any safer, as young pitchers are arguably more risky than older guys. Use deGrom’s advanced age and injury shortened seasons to your advantage. 2023 Projection: 14/2.51/0.95/220 in 170 IP

24) Francisco Lindor NYM, SS, 29.5 – Lindor was one of my top buys in 2022, ranking him 23rd overall in my 2022 Top 1,000 Rankings and closing his blurb by writing, “Lindor is an easy buy this off-season.” As expected, that is exactly how it played out with Lindor bouncing back to finish as the 10th best fantasy player in baseball (Razzball Player Rater). He simply did what he’s done his entire career, which is more or less be an above average player in every facet of the game. He should have a few more years of prime production left before his stolen bases dry up the deeper he gets into his 30’s as he is slowing down a little bit. 2023 Projection: 94/25/89/.263/.330/.453/17

25) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 28.4 – Alonso maintained 100% of the hit tool gains he made in 2021 with a career best 18.7% K% and .271 BA in 2022. Putting up those kind of contact numbers is scary with the kind of power he has, and it led to 40 homers. He is a perennial contender for the home run crown. 2023 Projection: 88/38/110/.268/.356/.520/4

26) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 31.8 – Panic hit the baseball world when it was announced Trout had a “rare” back injury that would require maintenance for the rest of his career, but then he returned from that injury and drilled 16 homers with a 1.056 OPS in his final 40 games. Granted, it came with a 24.3%/8.7% K%/BB%. His swing and miss was at career worst levels even before the injury with a 27.9% K% and 30.2 whiff% on the season. It’s becoming a trend as his K% was up a lot in 2021 as well. I believe we are seeing a glimpse into what the decline phase will look like. His power will thrive, but the batting average and OBP may be coming down. We already know the stolen bases have dried up completely, and that the injury risk is high too. 2023 Projection: 91/42/90/.280/.377/.605/3

27) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 25.8 – Robert battled through a variety of injuries which conspired to tank his season. He battled Covid in late May, picked up a leg injury shortly after that, then battled lightheadedness and blurred vision in July, before a wrist injury in mid August essentially ended his season even though he tried to play through it. He still managed to have a solid season through it all, slashing .284/.319/.426 with 12 homers, 11 steals, and a 77/17 K/BB in 98 games. He took a step back in many areas (Barrel%, EV, launch, sprint speed), but the one area he didn’t take a step back in was hit tool with him putting up a career best 19.2% K%. I feel confident a fully healthy Robert will get back to doing damage as long as he gets the bat on the ball, and the fact he put up career best marks there is very encouraging to me. 2023 Projection: 88/24/91/.277/.328/.460/19

28) Austin Riley ATL, 3B, 26.0 – Riley locked in his status as one of the premier power hitters in baseball in 2022. His 92.5 MPH EV was in the top 4% of the league and it led to 38 homers in 159 games. A 12.9 degree launch should keep his BA high, and he continues to make plate approach gains with a career best 8.2% BB% and 27.6% whiff%. I sense he still doesn’t get quite the respect he deserves, and even this ranking might be too low. 2023 Projection: 87/34/99/.270/.346/.524/1

29) Gerrit Cole NYY, RHP, 32.7 – Cole’s spin rates were just fine, which I figured would be the case with all the spin rate panic last off-season, writing in last year’s Top 1,000, “I’m betting on the spider tack guys getting their mojo back in 2022.”  He did put up his worst ERA (3.50), xERA (3.31), K% (32.4%), and xwOBA (.284) since his 2018 breakout, but all of them were just barely 5 year lows. Maybe it is a sign that he is entering the beginning of his decline phase, but all of his pitches were as nasty as ever, so I’m leaning towards it just being normal variance. He’s one of the safest, if not the safest ace in baseball. 2023 Projection: 15/3.26/1.02/250 in 195 IP

30) Sandy Alcantara MIA, RHP, 27.7 – Alcantara’s 228.2 IP led all of baseball, which makes up for his relative lack of strikeouts with a not that far above average 23.4% K%. His game is weak contact with an above average 87.8 MPH EV against, groundballs with a 5.5 degree launch angle, and plus control with a 6.6% BB%. With the new shift rules, Alcantara is the type of pitcher who might take a hit from it, but I don’t think you should overthink it. He’s too good to downgrade him for it. 2023 Projection: 14/3.11/1.04/209 in 215 IP

31) Aaron Nola PHI, RHP, 29.10 – Nola put up a career best 5.2% BB% in 2021, and he took it to another level in 2022 with a crazy elite 3.6%, which was the 2nd best mark among qualified pitchers behind Corey Kluber (3%). The improved control didn’t impact his ability to miss bats (29.1% K%) or induce weak contact (87.7 MPH EV) at all. It led to a 3.25 ERA with a 235/29 K/BB in 205 IP. His 4.63 ERA from 2021 made him an easy buy call and he unsurprisingly bounced right back. 2023 Projection: 14/3.38/0.99/227 in 195 IP

32) Jazz Chisholm MIA, 2B, 25.2 – Chisholm’s season ended in late June with a stress fracture in his back that ended up requiring surgery. To add insult to injury, actually, to add injury to injury, he also underwent surgery in September to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee that he was playing through for most of the season. The fact he was going full breakout with a torn knee is almost more impressive than I am scared off by the knee surgery. He had 14 homers, 12 steals and a reasonable .254 BA in 60 games with strong underlying numbers to back it up (.345 xwOBA, 90.4 MPH EV, 29.2 ft/sec sprint). The back injury sounds scary, but Evan Carter had a stress fracture in his back that ended his season in 2021, and he had a great year in 2022. I can’t deny the double injury is a little concerning, and he certainly would have ranked higher without the injuries, but it’s not enough to scare me off. I would use it as a buying opportunity. 2023 Projection: 79/27/87/.248/.322/.487/18

33) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.7 – Gunnar vs. Carroll is like Witt vs. Julio all over again. Julio pulled into the clear lead this year, but you were happy with either and their values could swing back and forth their entire careers. Gunnar and Carroll are on that same path. Arizona pushed Carroll all the way up to Double-A to start the year and he responded with pure across the board domination (166 wRC+ with 20 steals in 58 games). Triple-A didn’t slow him down much at all (135 wRC+ with 11 steals in 33 games), and then last but certainly not least, he kept it going in the majors, slashing .260/.330/.500 with 4 steals, 2 homers, and a 27%/7% K%/BB% in 32 games. He’s the fastest man in baseball with a 30.7 ft/sec sprint speed. His 85.8 MPH EV and .293 xwOBA isn’t optimal, and it’s the reason I have Gunnar as the #1 prospect in baseball, but I wouldn’t harp on that too much considering the guy literally had only 42 professional games under his belt coming into this year. Carroll is setting up to be an elite fantasy player. 2023 Projection: 81/18/65/.256/.332/.430/24 Prime Projection: 103/23/82/.276/.362/.474/33

34) Brandon Woodruff MIL, RHP, 30.2 – Woodruff was diagnosed with Raynaud’s Syndrome in June, but the diagnoses sounded scarier than the reality as he returned no worse for the wear. His 31.1% whiff% was actually a career best on the back of his changeup taking a step forward with a 54% whiff%. He had his usual elite season with a 3.05 ERA and 30.6%/6.8% K%/BB% in 153.1 IP. 2023 Projection: 14/3.18/1.04/210 in 175 IP

35) Dylan Cease CHW, RHP, 27.3 – Cease has everything but control. He has filthy stuff (96.8 MPH fastball), big K rates (30.4% K%), and induces weak contact (86.8 EV against). The 10.4% BB% adds more risk than the aces ranked above him, and it results in his WHIP being relatively on the high side (1.11). He still put up a 2.20 ERA (2.70 xERA) with the high walk rate, but we’ve seen guys who struggle with control have very inconsistent careers. I’m not scared off by it, but it’s certainly something to keep in mind. 2023 Projection: 14/3.29/1.15/228 in 185 IP

36) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 24.5 – Strider’s 38.3% K% was only bested amongst starters by deGrom’s stupid 42.7% K%. It also leads all starters in the history of baseball on the career leaderboard. Clearly it’s a small sample size (131.2 IP), and there is no decline phase which every other retired pitcher has factored in, but it shows the type of insane upside Strider has. He’s mostly a 2 pitch pitcher with a 98.2 MPH fastball and an elite slider that put up a 52.5% whiff%, but the changeup was elite too when he went to it with a .154 xwOBA and 47.5% whiff% (4.8% usage). He doesn’t have control issues either with an about average 8.5% BB%. I named him one of my top mid-season trade targets in late June, essentially calling him the 2022 version of Shane McClanahan, and his value has only skyrocketed since then. 2023 Projection: 13/3.15/1.09/242 in 170 IP

37) Freddie Freeman LAD, 1B, 33.7 – Freeman is an all fields hitter whose homer power was most certainly impacted by the dead ball, hitting an 8 year low (on a per game basis) 21 homers, but not being reliant on homers helped him overcome the ball in general with an elite .403 xwOBA (3rd best overall). He might be the most consistent elite hitter in the game. He also stole a career high 13 bags and has yet to show signs of losing speed. He certainly has the potential to produce deep into his 30’s. 2023 Projection: 112/28/97/.306/.398/.515/11

38) Alek Manoah TOR, RHP, 25.3 – Manoah proved his 4-seamer dominating MLB hitters was no fluke in his 2021 rookie year, backing it up in 2022 with the pitch putting up a negative 19 run value (6th best overall). All 4 of his pitches were firmly above average to plus, and he fired them with plus control (6.5% BB%). He also proved he is a workhorse with 196.2 IP. The swing and miss rates were only average (22.9% K%), and his xERA was much better than his ERA (3.31 xERA vs. 2.24 ERA), but that feels like nitpicking considering he finished the season as the 4th best fantasy pitcher. 2023 Projection: 15/3.15/1.03/188 in 190 IP

39) Corey Seager TEX, SS, 28.11 – Seager doesn’t get the respect he deserves in the fantasy world. The guy is an elite hitter with a .372 xwOBA which was in the top 4% of the league. He has double plus contact rates with a 15.5% K%, he crushes the ball with a 91.1 MPH EV, and his 13.6 degree launch angle is conducive to both power and average. He jacked a career high 33 homers this year and while it came with a .245 BA, a lot of that was bad luck with a career low by far .242 BABIP. While I don’t think the new shift rules will have a major impact in general, Seager could be the type of hitter it helps out a little bit. If he hits .300 next year with 35 homers it wouldn’t be surprising at all. 2023 Projection: 90/30/90/.280/.350/.505/2

40) Carlos Rodon NYY, LHP, 30.4 – All of the injury concern this off-season proved to be for naught as Rodon notched a career high 178 IP, and he only got stronger as the season progressed. He ended up with a pitching line of 2.88/1.03/237/52. His fastball averaged a career high 95.5 MPH and he decided to almost completely ditch his changeup which got destroyed in 2021. Throwing your good pitches more and your bad pitches less is sometimes presented as like some kind of genius revolutionary idea, but it is the most common sense thing in the world. Rodon is straight elite when healthy, and I’m not sure it’s fair to give him all that much of an injury downgrade at this point. Even this ranking could be too cautious. 2023 Projection: 13/3.02/1.05/215 in 170 IP

41) Randy Arozarena TBR, OF, 28.1 – Arozarena continues to defy the Statcast gods, handily outperforming his underlying numbers for the 4th year in a row. He put up a .336 wOBA vs. .301 xwOBA. Being very fast (28.8 ft/sec sprint) and hitting the ball hard (89.9 MPH EV) on a line (8.8 degree launch angle) seems to be the formula to get “lucky.” Luck is the residue of design. He made real contact gains with a career best 28.6% whiff%. It all led to 20 homers, 32 steals, and a .263 BA. Arozarena also seems perfectly positioned to take advantage of the new pick off rules as a young, fast, liberal base stealer. The poor underlying numbers gives me a enough pause to not rank him higher than this, but I also think this ranking shows I’m a believer. 2023 Projection: 80/18/80/.258/.330/.440/30

42) Cedric Mullins BAL, OF, 28.6 – Mullins had one of the best “disappointing” seasons ever with 16 homers and 34 steals, finishing 27th overall on the Razzball Player Rater. He couldn’t come close to matching his 2021 power breakout, and while the dead ball certainly played a big role, it was very obviously a career year that he is unlikely to repeat. Like Arozarena, Mullins has outperformed his underlying statcast numbers his entire career (.328 career wOBA vs. .303 xwOBA), so I wouldn’t panic too much over the very poor .288 xwOBA in 2022, but speed is most certainly the skill you are buying here. 2023 Projection: 87/20/70/.266/.328/.437/36

43) Shane Bieber CLE, RHP, 27.10 – Bieber’s fastball tanked to 91.3 MPH from a high of 94.1 MPH in 2020, which validated the concerns over his strained shoulder coming into the year, but it turned out he doesn’t need the huge fastball to be elite. He put up a pitching line of 2.88/1.04/198/36 in 200 IP. Bieber’s velocity ticked up relatively later in his career, so he already knew how to pitch with a low 90’s fastball, and that was obvious with him compensating by becoming an even more elite control guy with a 4.6% BB%. The underlying numbers didn’t look as good with a 3.51 xERA, but many, many pitchers this year outdid their xERA, so the dead ball probably messed with the numbers a little bit. I’m expecting the balls to be less dead next year, but your guess is as good as mine. The new shift rules will regress some of that BABIP luck as well. 2023 Projection: 14/3.28/1.10/205 in 190 IP

44) Zac Gallen ARI, RHP, 27.8 – An injury marred 2021 had Gallen’s price depressed last off-season, and he rewarded his believers with the best season of his career in 2022, putting up a pitching line of 2.54/0.91/192/47 in 184 IP. He did it on the back of improved control with his BB% dropping 2.8 percentage points to a career best 6.6%, and also increased velocity with is 4-seamer up 0.7 MPH to a career best 94.1 MPH. The only quibble is that his swing and miss is on the decline with a below average, career worst 23% whiff%, but in the context of all the other improvements he made, I wouldn’t be too concerned. Plus his K% was still above average at 26.9%. I would hesitate to put Gallen into that true ace tier, but he’s in the tier right below that one. 2023 Projection: 14/3.21/1.08/195 in 185 IP

45) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 26.3 – Albies season effectively ended in mid June from a broken foot. He returned in mid September only to break his pinky his 2nd game back. Sometimes you just can’t catch a break. Or maybe it was a blessing in disguise as he was in the midst of a pretty bad year with a poor 87.1 MPH EV, .297 xwOBA, and 27.5 ft/sec sprint speed. He had only 8 homers, 3 steals, and a .703 OPS in 64 games. The bottom line is that both the surface and underlying numbers look bad, but his youth and track record is strong enough to overlook it. I seriously doubt he’s all of a sudden not that good. 2023 Projection: 88/25/86/.263/.318/.466/14

46) Julio Urias LAD, LHP, 26.8 – I feel like I’ve been the high guy on Urias since 2019, and continually pushing him up my ranks paid off yet again (37th overall in 2022) with him putting up a pitching line of 2.16/0.96/166/41 in 175 IP. He’s not a big strikeout guy, but he’s a weak contact machine with a 86.7 MPH EV against. He’s never had a mark over 87.1 MPH in his 7 year career. He combines that with near elite control with a 6% BB%, and he should continue to rack up wins on the Dodgers. 2023 Projection: 15/3.17/1.00/174 in 178 IP

Shadow46) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP, 28.9 – This is where I would take Ohtani as a pitcher only. I didn’t think Ohtani would ever throw 166 innings in a single season, and with how much pitchers get restricted these days, that is almost a full workload. 2023 Projection: 13/2.94/1.03/199 in 161 IP

47) Eloy Jimenez CHW, OF, 26.4 – Jimenez went down with a hamstring injury just 11 games into the season, but he returned a man on fire, not only reestablishing himself as one of the premier young power hitters in the game, but also taking his game to the next level. He notched career bests in EV (92.8 MPH), xwOBA (.365), K% (22%), and BB% (8.6%). It led to a slash of .295/..358/.500 with 16 homers in 84 games. His 7.4 degree launch angle isn’t necessarily geared for homers, but it will keep his BA high and he crushes the ball so hard he doesn’t need a huge launch to rack up dingers. The improved plate approach is also a great sign that we could be in store for a monster season in 2023. I’m buying. 2023 Projection: 82/32/95/.274/.337/.512/0

48) Cristian Javier HOU, RHP, 26.0 – There is a starter logjam in Houston (less so at the moment with Verlander leaving town), but I highly doubt one of the smartest teams in baseball leave one of the best starters in the game out of their rotation. And one of the best starters in the game is exactly what Javier is with a 2.54 ERA and 33.2%/8.9% K%/BB% in 148.2 IP. He doesn’t throw gas with a 93.8 MPH 4-seamer, but it was the 10th most valuable 4-seamer in baseball, and his elite slider put up a .175 xwOBA (5th best overall with min 100 PA). Maybe it means Houston goes to a 6 man rotation, but I would be blown away if he isn’t in it. I named him one of my top 10 mid-season trade targets in late June, and his value has skyrocketed since then. 2023 Projection: 13/3.39/1.08/215 in 170 IP

49) George Kirby SEA, RHP, 25.2 – Kirby dominated in his MLB debut with elite control (4.1% BB%) of a legitimate 6 pitch mix (4-seam, curve, cutter, sinker, slider, change). He threw each pitch at least 8% of the time, but the fastball is the money maker, throwing it 45.4% of the time and putting up a negative 18 run value on it, which was the 9th best in baseball. It led to a pitching line of 3.39/1.21/133/22 in 130 IP. As advertised from his prospect days, none of his secondaries are true out pitches, and his 24.5% K% isn’t standout (21.2% whiff% is well below average), but that is one hell of a rookie season. 2023 Projection: 12/3.45/1.11/178 in 170 IP

50) Luis Castillo SEA, RHP, 30.4 – Castillo went from the 2nd worst pitcher’s park in baseball to the very best at the trade deadline, and while his numbers didn’t take a jump, it was only because he was already in the midst of having his best season in Cincinnati. It was the first year of his career with a sub 3.00 ERA, granted just barely with a 2.99 ERA in 150.1 IP. His season was delayed by a shoulder issue, but he looked completely healthy with a 97.1 MPH fastball, and his K% bounced back from a down 2021 with a 27.2% K%. The move to Seattle cements his status as a near ace. 2023 Projection: 14/3.37/1.09/203 in 180 IP

51) Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 24.6 – Cruz is the highest risk, highest reward player in fantasy, and as you can tell from this ranking, I’m betting on the reward. He has truly elite speed with a 29.9 ft/sec sprint speed (top 2%), stealing 11 bags in 87 games. He smokes the ball with a 91.9/97.2 MPH AVG/FB EV, which basically makes him launch angle proof, and an 8.3 degree launch isn’t that bad, leading to 17 homers. It should also help keep his batting average from completely falling off the face of the Earth, because the guy has a wee bit of a strikeout problem with a 34.8% K% and 35.4% whiff% (.233 BA). I like to take strategic risks in fantasy (if you can’t take risks in fantasy, when can you take risks?), and I’m betting on that K rate coming down because his strikeout rates in the minors really weren’t all that bad. I remember when Aaron Judge put up a 44.2% K% in his MLB debut and everyone got scared off, but I didn’t get scared off, and I’m not getting scared off Cruz either. 2023 Projection: 76/27/84/.244/.316/24 Prime Projection: 86/32/99/.258/.337/.512/26

52) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.1 – Chourio is on that Acuna/Tatis superstar path, where they didn’t necessarily put up elite plate approach numbers on the come up, but they were so young for the level and the talent is so huge it doesn’t really matter. Chourio had a generational type season, making it all the way to Double-A as an 18 year old to close out the year. Milwaukee knew they had something special, skipping him right over stateside rookie ball, and they were proven right with him destroying Single-A with a 160 wRC+. He then went to High-A and actually improved his K% with it dropping 6.2 percentage points to 21.8%. He got eaten up in 6 games at Double-A with a 42.3% K%, but I wouldn’t even blink an eye at that. He’s an electric ballplayer with a lightning quick, powerful swing to go along with at least plus speed. Now is the time in a superstar’s career where dynasty mistakes are made. Don’t sell Chourio for anything less than an elite return. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 98/29/96/.276/.351/.502/16

53) Jose Altuve HOU, 2B, 32.11 – Altuve started running again out of nowhere and stole 18 bags in 19 attempts. Good luck trying to predict steals, and that goes doubly for 2023 with the new rules. His power was unaffected by the dead ball with 28 homers, even though his 85.9 MPH EV was a career low. He’s been pulling the ball in the air more than ever these past 2 seasons, and pulled flyballs were least affected by the dead balls. He also notched a career best 10.9% BB% as the cherry on top. 2023 Projection: 95/26/72/.288/.364/.490/14

54) Max Fried ATL, LHP, 29.2 – Fried’s control went from plus to elite with a 4.4% BB%, and it led to the best year of his career with a pitching line of 2.48/1.01/170/32 in 185.1 IP. I’ve noticed many guys with good control took it to another level in 2022, and I suspect it’s because they were less afraid to attack the plate with the dead ball. The balls may be less dead in 2022 (or may not be), but it’s not like Fried isn’t damn good with a “regular” ball, and he improved his arsenal this year by making his changeup a legitimate 5th pitch. He threw it a career high 14.1% and it put up an excellent .207 xwOBA with a 36.7% whiff%. He now has 5 pitches that range from above average to elite. A big K rate is the only thing missing. 2023 Projection: 14/3.00/1.07/170 in 180 IP

55) Zack Wheeler PHI, RHP, 32.10 – Wheeler battled some shoulder soreness before the season, and a forearm injury kept him out for a month in August/September. It resulted in a small drop in velocity, but he had plenty of velocity to spare with it dropping 1.3 MPH to a still excellent 95.9 MPH. It also didn’t result in any performance decline as his elite control (5.6% BB%) and weak contact (85.9 MPH EV against) profile led to a 2.82 ERA with a 163/34 K/BB in 153 IP. He also dominated the playoffs with a 2.67 ERA in 30.1 IP. 2023 Projection: 14/3.08/1.05/199 in 185 IP

56) Paul Goldschmidt STL, 1B, 35.7 – Maybe I’m doing too much of “I told you to buy this guy and then he exploded after that,” but I put so much time into this and I’m proud of my hits. And I’ve genuinely hit on a ton of guys (I have misses too like Grandal, Tork, Giolito, and Nestor Cortes, among others). Goldy was my top mid-season trade target in late June of 2021, and since then he literally flipped a switch and turned back into an elite performer. His huge 2021 2nd half continued into 2022 where Goldy put up a 177 wRC+ in 151 games. He overperformed the underlying numbers by a good bit (.419 wOBA vs. .367 xwOBA), but his xwOBA was still in the top 5% of the league. He’s 35 now and I don’t think you can expect this level of production for much longer, but you can’t let an elite bat like this fall much further than this, even in a dynasty league. 2023 Projection: 95/32/99/.291/.390/.522/8

57) Joe Musgrove SDP, RHP, 30.4 – Musgrove throws a 6 pitch mix and all 6 pitches put up an above average xwOBA against. It led to a career best 2.93 ERA in 181 IP. Pitching to contact was all the rage this year, and Musgrove is a man of the times with his BB% dropping 1.5 percentage points to 5.7%, inducing tons of weak contact with a 86.4 MPH EV against. His K% went down with it, dropping 2.2 percentage points to 24.9%, but like I’ve mentioned, it seemed to be a conscious choice with the dead balls. 2023 Projection: 13/3.37/1.11/189 in 180

58) Kevin Gausman TOR, RHP, 32.3 – It turns out that Gausman didn’t turn to dust with his move from San Francisco to Toronto, putting up a pitching line of 3.35/1.24/205/28 in 174.2 IP. His 3.9% BB% and 3.34 xERA were both career bests. His elite splitter was tied for the 2nd most valuable splitter in baseball with Taijuan Walker, and behind my boy Tony Gonsolin. 2023 Projection: 13/3.48/1.16/210 in 180 IP

59) Nolan Arenado STL, 3B, 32.0 – Arenado put up a .381 wOBA vs. a .339 xwOBA, but he’s outperformed his xwOBA every year of his career, so I don’t think it means much. It’s because he doesn’t exactly crush the ball with an average-ish 88.7 MPH EV, but he obviously doesn’t exert himself an inch more than is needed as he slashed .293/.358/.533 with 30 homers and a 72/52 K/BB in 148 games. His 11.6% K% was the 2nd best mark of his career. 2023 Projection: 83/32/100/.277/.341/.510/3

60) Tyler Glasnow TBR, RHP, 29.8 – Glasnow returned from Tommy John surgery just in time to show everyone he is back to being elite, going 11.2 IP with a 15/0 K/BB and 1 ER, including the playoffs. The fastball sat 97.4 MPH and the 38.5%/7.7% K%/BB% shows the whiffs and control were in prime form. Durability is the biggest factor with him never throwing more than 111.2 IP in the majors, but he’s truly elite if he can stay healthy. 2023 Projection: 11/3.38/1.12/180 in 150 IP

61) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.3 – Elly De La Cruz might still be a high risk, high reward prospect, but in 2022 the risk got a whole lot less, and the reward got a whole lot more. He put up one of the those stupid good seasons in the minors, slashing .304/.359/.586 with 28 homers, 47 steals, and a 30.8%/7.8% K%/BB% in 120 games split between High-A and Double-A. He ripped up both levels, and most importantly, he didn’t let his K% skyrocket at Double-A. He’s currently playing in the pitcher’s haven Dominican Winter League, which is a grown man’s league (he’s about 8 years younger than average), and it’s great sign that he’s running a 26.7%/15.8% K%/BB% in 101 PA. It sure seems like he will be able to continue to improve the plate approach rather than it going in the opposite direction. The numbers he can potentially put up at Great American Ballpark are scary. 2023 Projection: 32/11/35/.232/.294/.433/12 Prime Projection: 87/30/98/.250/.331/.503/30

62) Dustin May LAD, RHP, 25.7 – May returned from Tommy John surgery in late August, and while he wasn’t able to seamlessly pick up from his 2021 breakout, he showed the ingredients to get back there in 2023. He continued to throw the 97.2 MPH sinker much less in favor of his 98.1 MPH 4 seamer and secondaries (curve, cutter, change), which drove his 2021 breakout. The improved whiff% remained with a strong 29.7% whiff%, and he kept the ball on the ground as always with a 4.7 degree launch. Control is often the last thing to come back after returning from Tommy John, and that proved true for May as he had a career worst by a mile 11% BB%, which led to the poor 4.50 ERA in 30 IP. He’s had plus to elite control his entire career though, so I would be shocked if that didn’t bounce back in 2023. You have one last off-season to buy into May, because he’s headed for a monster 2023. 2023 Projection: 12/3.32/1.08/160 in 150 IP

63) Tommy Edman STL, 2B/SS, 27.11 – Edman’s power ticked up in his age 27 season with a career best 88.6 MPH EV and 6.2% Barrel%. It led to 13 homers and a .725 OPS, which is a bit of a bummer if that is the best he can do, but taking into account the dead ball it was good for a 108 wRC+. What you’re buying here is stolen bases, and Edman is an elite base stealer with 32 steals in 35 attempts. He’s perfectly set up to take advantage of the new stolen base rules. 2023 Projection: 88/14/59/.271/.325/.405/35

64) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 21.11 – Volpe got off to a rough start at Double-A with a .647 OPS and 24% K% in his first 37 games, but he came alive after that, slashing .286/.374/.536 with 13 homers, 26 steals, and a 14.4%/10.7% K%/BB% in 72 games. He does it all with a mature plate approach, plus game power, and plus stolen base ability. Despite the 17.7% K% at Double-A on the season, he still hit only .251 because of an extreme 56.9% flyball percentage. If the balls stay dead, it could be an issue because he isn’t a huge raw power guy at 5’11”, 180 pounds. He also struggled when he got the call to Triple-A with his K% spiking to 30.3%, and putting up a 91 wRC+ in 22 games. The profile isn’t flawless, but he has a super fantasy friendly skillset, and he was a 21 year old in the upper minors, so further refinement is surely coming. He’s an elite prospect. 2023 Projection: 38/10/35/.236/.316/.421/12 Prime Projection: 89/26/88/.267/.341/.473/21

65) Jordan Walker STL, 3B/OF, 20.11 – Nobody smashes the ball as hard as the 6’5”, 220 pound Walker. One thing we don’t have to worry about is him getting to the majors and putting up like an 84 MPH EV. He’s gonna hit it hard. He was a 20 year old at Double-A and ripped 19 homers with 31 doubles in 119 games, good for a 128 wRC+. He then wrecked the AFL with 5 homers, 6 doubles, and a .925 OPS in 21 games. He has some swing and miss in his game, but it’s far from the danger zone with a 21.6%/10.8% K%/BB%, and he has plus speed with 22 steals, although considering his size, you might not want to count on him majorly in that category. He started to transition to the OF, which gives him a path to playing time with Arenado locked in at 3B. 2023 Projection: 42/12/47/.251/.326/.461/7 Prime Projection: 92/33/105/.267/.346/.513/12

66) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 20.8 – Lawlar left everyone from his 2021 FYPD class in the dust in 2022. He slashed .303/.401/.509 with 16 homers, 39 steals, and a 25.1%/12.4% K%/BB% in 100 games split between 3 levels (A, A+, AA). He only had a 65 wRC+ in 20 games at Double-A but he jacked 4 homers and his plate approach didn’t completely collapse or anything (28.9%/10.3%). It was impressive he made it all the way to Double-A at all. He then destroyed the AFL with a .997 OPS in 11 games. He has a smooth and simple righty swing that is geared for power and average to go along with plus speed. He’s an elite prospect. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 92/24/86/.270/.348/.470/26

67) Max Scherzer NYM, RHP, 38.9 – Scherzer showed zero signs of decline in 2022 when on the mound. He put up a 2.29 ERA with a 30.6%/4.2% K%/BB% in 145.1 IP. The K’s were down slightly, but that was a trend around the league. The only way age reared it’s ugly head was with durability. He battled an oblique injury which led to career low in IP (other than his rookie year and 2020), and he hasn’t been able to surpass 179.1 IP since 2018. Don’t count on huge innings totals, but all signs point to him continuing to be elite. You deserve an elite prospect for him if you’re selling in dynasty. 2023 Projection: 14/2.98/0.98/209 in 175 IP

68) Framber Valdez HOU, LHP, 29.5 – Valdez was born to do one thing, and that thing is killing worms. He throws a 5 pitch mix and all 5 pitches induce grounders. His negative 3.6 degree launch angle is bested only by Clay Holmes’ ridiculous negative 8.1 degree launch. His 93.9 MPH sinker, which he goes to almost half the time, is his money maker, but his curveball, cutter, and changeup all graded out to almost elite when he went to them with a .202, .200, and .222 xwOBA against, respectively. He proved his walk rate won’t be a major issue with a 8.1% BB% and he also proved his durability with 201.1 IP. He’s not a true fantasy ace because he doesn’t rack up K’s and his WHIP’s are on the high side, but he’s in the tier right under that. 2023 Projection: 15/3.29/1.18/185 in 188 IP

69) Matt Olson ATL, 1B, 29.0 – Olson wasn’t able to maintain the BA and strikeout gains he made in 2021 with his K% jumping back up 7.5 percentage points to 24.3% and his batting average tanking to .240. The power was no problemo though with him jacking 34 homers with an elite 92.9 MPH EV (top 3%). He’s one of the premier power hitters in the game, but the hope he could consistently marry the power with a high BA has dissipated. 2023 Projection: 88/35/105/.250/.340/.506/2

70) Dansby Swanson CHC, SS, 29.2 – Swanson’s power continues to tick up, beating the dead ball back with a stick (literally), smacking 25 homers with a career best 90.2 MPH and 15.7 degree launch. He also ran more than ever with 18 steals in 25 attempts. He needed BABIP luck (.348 BABIP) to notch a .277 BA as his plate approach remains average to below average with a 26.1%/7.0% K%/BB%, and with him landing in Chicago (8th worst park for righties), I would expect that BA to come down. 2023 Projection: 81/26/88/.260/.327/.452/14

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 500 2023 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS w/ Strategy & Target Guide
-All-In-One Rankings Spreadsheet
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 305 SP//Top 282 OF//Top 151 SS//Top 115 3B//Top 105 2B//Top 95 1B//TOP 68 C//Top 64 RP
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-DYNASTY TEAM REPORTS FOR EVERY TEAM (Top 10+ Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
-UPCOMING: Position by Position Target Series, Top 600 OBP Rankings, Top 600 Points/6+Cats/OPS “Universal” Rankings, Predicting the 2024 Top 50 Prospects Rankings that doubles as a Bold Predictions article, and much more

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 500 Prospects Rankings for 2023 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Leagues

It’s Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings Week over on the Patreon, and we kick it off today with the Top 500 Prospects Rankings for 2023 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Leagues. The Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings will drop tomorrow at the earliest, and Monday at the very, very latest. These lists will be released here on Imaginary Brick Wall in mid to late March. Here is the Top 500 Prospects Rankings for 2023 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Leagues:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2023 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS w/ Strategy & Target Guide
-All-In-One Rankings Spreadsheet
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 305 SP//Top 282 OF//Top 151 SS//Top 115 3B//Top 105 2B//Top 95 1B//TOP 68 C//Top 64 RP
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-DYNASTY TEAM REPORTS FOR EVERY TEAM (Top 10+ Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
-UPCOMING: Position by Position Target Series, Top 600 OBP Rankings, Top 600 Points/6+Cats/OPS “Universal” Rankings, Predicting the 2024 Top 50 Prospects Rankings that doubles as a Bold Predictions article, and much more

1) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 21.9 – Nothing makes me more comfortable about a prospect than one who gets called up to the majors and immediately puts up elite exit velocity numbers. Henderson smacked the crap outta the ball to the tune of a 92.4/98.1 MPH AVG/FB EV in 132 MLB PA. That would almost be enough for me to love love a player on it’s own, a la Oneil Cruz, but Henderson does just about everything else well too. His hit tool improved majorly this year, dropping his K% from 30.1% in 2021 in mostly the lower minors, to 23.1% in 2022 in the upper minors. The improvements transferred to the majors with a very reasonable 26.6% whiff% and 25.8% K%. He’s put up high walk rates his entire career and he’s also very fast with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. He’s almost a flawless prospect. I say “almost,” because he’s struggled vs. lefties in his career, but he’s still very young, so improvement is almost certainly coming, and it’s also a testament to how badly he decimates righties. 2023 Projection: 82/25/85/.262/.347/.473/14 Prime Projection: 106/32/102/.278/.383/.518/16

2) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.7 – Gunnar vs. Carroll is like Witt vs. Julio all over again. Julio pulled into the clear lead this year, but you were happy with either and their values could swing back and forth their entire careers. Gunnar and Carroll are on that same path. Arizona pushed Carroll all the way up to Double-A to start the year and he responded with pure across the board domination (166 wRC+ with 20 steals in 58 games). Triple-A didn’t slow him down much at all (135 wRC+ with 11 steals in 33 games), and then last but certainly not least, he kept it going in the majors, slashing .260/.330/.500 with 4 steals, 2 homers, and a 27%/7% K%/BB% in 32 games. He’s the fastest man in baseball with a 30.7 ft/sec sprint speed. His 85.8 MPH EV and .293 xwOBA isn’t optimal, and it’s the reason I have Gunnar as the #1 prospect in baseball, but I wouldn’t harp on that too much considering the guy literally had only 42 professional games under his belt coming into this year. Carroll is setting up to be an elite fantasy player. 2023 Projection: 81/18/65/.256/.332/.430/24 Prime Projection: 103/23/82/.276/.362/.474/33

3) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.1 – Chourio is on that Acuna/Tatis superstar path, where they didn’t necessarily put up elite plate approach numbers on the come up, but they were so young for the level and the talent is so huge it doesn’t really matter. Chourio had a generational type season, making it all the way to Double-A as an 18 year old to close out the year. Milwaukee knew they had something special, skipping him right over stateside rookie ball, and they were proven right with him destroying Single-A with a 160 wRC+. He then went to High-A and actually improved his K% with it dropping 6.2 percentage points to 21.8%. He got eaten up in 6 games at Double-A with a 42.3% K%, but I wouldn’t even blink an eye at that. He’s an electric ballplayer with a lightning quick, powerful swing to go along with at least plus speed. Now is the time in a superstar’s career where dynasty mistakes are made. Don’t sell Chourio for anything less than an elite return. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 98/29/96/.276/.351/.502/16

4) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.3 – Elly De La Cruz might still be a high risk, high reward prospect, but in 2022 the risk got a whole lot less, and the reward got a whole lot more. He put up one of the those stupid good seasons in the minors, slashing .304/.359/.586 with 28 homers, 47 steals, and a 30.8%/7.8% K%/BB% in 120 games split between High-A and Double-A. He ripped up both levels, and most importantly, he didn’t let his K% skyrocket at Double-A. He’s currently playing in the pitcher’s haven Dominican Winter League, which is a grown man’s league (he’s about 8 years younger than average), and it’s great sign that he’s running a 26.7%/15.8% K%/BB% in 101 PA. It sure seems like he will be able to continue to improve the plate approach rather than it going in the opposite direction. The numbers he can potentially put up at Great American Ballpark are scary. 2023 Projection: 32/11/35/.232/.294/.433/12 Prime Projection: 87/30/98/.250/.331/.503/30

5) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 21.11 – Volpe got off to a rough start at Double-A with a .647 OPS and 24% K% in his first 37 games, but he came alive after that, slashing .286/.374/.536 with 13 homers, 26 steals, and a 14.4%/10.7% K%/BB% in 72 games. He does it all with a mature plate approach, plus game power, and plus stolen base ability. Despite the 17.7% K% at Double-A on the season, he still hit only .251 because of an extreme 56.9% flyball percentage. If the balls stay dead, it could be an issue because he isn’t a huge raw power guy at 5’11”, 180 pounds. He also struggled when he got the call to Triple-A with his K% spiking to 30.3%, and putting up a 91 wRC+ in 22 games. The profile isn’t flawless, but he has a super fantasy friendly skillset, and he was a 21 year old in the upper minors, so further refinement is surely coming. 2023 Projection: 38/10/35/.236/.316/.421/12 Prime Projection: 89/26/88/.267/.341/.473/21

6) Jordan Walker STL, 3B/OF, 20.11 – Nobody smashes the ball as hard as the 6’5”, 220 pound Walker. One thing we don’t have to worry about is him getting to the majors and putting up like an 84 MPH EV. He’s gonna hit it hard. He was a 20 year old at Double-A and ripped 19 homers with 31 doubles in 119 games, good for a 128 wRC+. He then wrecked the AFL with 5 homers, 6 doubles, and a .925 OPS in 21 games. He has some swing and miss in his game, but it’s far from the danger zone with a 21.6%/10.8% K%/BB%, and he has plus speed with 22 steals, although considering his size, you might not want to count on him majorly in that category. He started to transition to the OF, which gives him a path to playing time with Arenado locked in at 3B. 2023 Projection: 42/12/47/.251/.326/.461/7 Prime Projection: 92/33/105/.267/.346/.513/12

7) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 20.8 – Lawlar left everyone from his 2021 FYPD class in the dust in 2022. He slashed .303/.401/.509 with 16 homers, 39 steals, and a 25.1%/12.4% K%/BB% in 100 games split between 3 levels (A, A+, AA). He only had a 65 wRC+ in 20 games at Double-A but he jacked 4 homers and his plate approach didn’t completely collapse or anything (28.9%/10.3%). It was impressive he made it all the way to Double-A at all. He then destroyed the AFL with a .997 OPS in 11 games. He has a smooth and simple righty swing that is geared for power and average to go along with plus speed. He’s an elite prospect. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 92/24/86/.270/.348/.470/26

8) James Wood WAS, OF, 20.6 – Wood was one of my top 2022 FYPD targets and I was able to scoop him in my 18 team First Year Player Draft that I broke down last off-season on Patreon. He surpassed even my expectations as he played like a man amongst boys at 6’7”, 240 pounds, slashing .313/.420/.536 with 12 homers, 20 steals, and a 21.6%/14.4% K%/BB% in 76 games at Single-A. He absolutely smashes the ball and he proved his hit tool isn’t a major red flag, to say the least, it might actually be an asset. Wood is a unicorn athlete in the mold of an Aaron Judge and Oneil Cruz. He’s in the “untouchable” category for me. I’m not trading him. ETA: 2024/25 Prime Projection: 88/28/93/.262/.355/.513/14

9) Miguel Vargas LAD, 3B, 23.4 – Vargas made his MLB debut in 2022 and while he only put up a .455 OPS in 50 PA, there is nothing I love more than seeing rookies hit the ball hard. He had a well above average 89.7/94.1 MPH AVG/FB EV. He’s also much faster than advertised with a 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed which in the top 6% of the league. He had no trouble lifting the ball with a 25.7 degree launch angle and has no swing and miss issues with an average 24.3% whiff%. His elite plate approach at Triple-A (14.6%/13.7% K%/BB%) shows better days are likely ahead there too. Speaking of Triple-A, he slashed .304/.304/.511 with 17 homers and 16 steals in 113 games. He’s currently the favorite to be LA’s starting 3B in 2023, and the numbers indicate this guy has star potential. 2023 Projection: 72/21/75/.258/.327/.445/11 Prime Projection: 93/27/87/.272/.345/.483/15

10) Zac Veen COL, OF, 21.4 – It’s a mistake to think more power isn’t coming for Veen. And maybe a lot more. He’s a skinny 6’4” with an explosive lefty swing that is a thing of beauty. He’s guaranteed to put up legit power numbers when he grows into his frame. It reminds me of what I predicted in February 2022 about my #9 prospect, Miguel Vargas, when people were fading him because of his low EV numbers in my Predicting the 2023 Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects: “Vargas’ exit velocity numbers will increase, and the hardhit data will catch up to the surface power numbers, rather than the other way around. I’m hesitant to cap a young prospects power potential just because they don’t put up grown man exit velocities in the minors. It’s almost like people forgot power is often the last thing to come for prospects, especially ones who don’t sell out for it and have really strong contact numbers and plate approaches.” Vargas EV numbers looked damn good in his MLB debut this year. The power is coming for Veen too, and when it does, it will be combined with plus speed and a strong plate approach. That is star potential playing at Coors Field. He did struggle in his callup to Double-A (42 wRC+ with a 29.8% K% in 34 games) after handling his business at High-A (126 wRC+ with a 22.5%/12.% K%/BB% and 50 steals in 92 games), but a ton of super talented 20 year olds struggled considerably at Double-A this year, so I wouldn’t let it completely tank your opinion of him. There is still more work to be done, but I’m willing to stay patient for it, and it creates a buying opportunity this off-season that will likely disappear very quickly into 2023. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 93/28/91/.273/.345/.492/17

11) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.2 – It felt like everyone was just waiting for Dominguez to fail, the ole build em up so we can tear em down, but Dominguez refused to blink. He’s now officially living up to the hype with a big 2022, slashing .273/.376/.461 with 16 homers, 37 steals, and a 24.2%/13.6% K%/BB% in 120 games mostly at Single-A and High-A. He actually performed better at High-A with a 146 wRC+ and 18.5% K%, and he even made it Double-A for 5 games and wasn’t overmatched with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 5/3 K/BB (despite a .467 OPS). His tools are still big and back up the numbers with plus speed and plus power. If he keeps this up at Double-A as a 20 year old, he’ll be in the mix for #1 fantasy prospect in the game very quickly into 2023. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/28/93/.261/.345/.491/18

12) Druw Jones ARI, OF, 19.4 – Selected 2nd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Jones has that classic tall and projectable build that screams upside, and he has elite bloodlines with Andruw Jones being his father. He has near elite speed (6.31 60 yard dash) and truly elite bat speed (99.42 percentile-besting some marks put up by bat speed monster Harry Ford last year). His power has also exploded this year, with him launching some homers that blew up on Twitter (Will Hoefer). He hurt his shoulder during BP before he was able to debut and underwent surgery to repair it, but I dropped Lawlar from the #1 slot in my first year player draft rankings last year after his shoulder injury, and I’m not making the same mistake with Jones ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 93/30/104/.274/.355/.515/20

13) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.4 – Baseball is starting to feel like it is a hereditary monarchy, where all star games are passed down based on bloodlines like it’s the 1300’s. Jackson is the son of Matt, commander of the Armies of the North, General of the Felix Legions and loyal servant to the true emperor, Marcus Aurelius. Father to a murdered son. Husband to a murdered wife. And I will have my vengeance, in this life or the ne … my bad, lost myself there 🙂 … Like many plus bloodline kids, Jackson is an advanced hitter, and he combines that with plus athleticism and a plus power/speed combo. He truly wields the bat like it’s a samurai sword, gracefully killing the ball with a smooth and powerful lefty swing. He stepped right into pro ball and was far too advanced for rookie ball (220 wRC+ with a 6.1%/30.3% K%/BB% in 8 rookie ball games) before performing well in 12 games at Single-A (130 wRC+ with a 17.5%/26.3% K%/BB%). Druw Jones and Holliday are in a tier of their own on my First Year Player Draft Rankings. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 96/25/88/.278/.357/.491/14

14) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 23.5 – Rodriguez is my #1 pitching prospect in baseball and is a good bet to break camp with the team. He really shouldn’t be considered a prospect anymore. He should have graduated. But he did what pitching prospects do and missed 3 months with a lat strain. He was a bit rusty when he returned in September with a 4.12 ERA and 29/14 K/BB in 19.2 IP. He had a 2.09 ERA with a 80/14 K/BB in 56 IP at Triple-A before going down with the injury. When completely healthy he has plus control of a devastating 4 pitch mix, all of which have the potential to be at least plus. It’s true ace upside.  2023 Projection: 10/3.73/1.22/161 in 150 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.15/1.05/240 in 200 IP

15) Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 19.5 – In a Mock First Year Player Draft last off-season for Baseball Prospectus, I drafted Andrew Painter 21st overall and wrote, “I generally lean toward hitting prospects in dynasty, but I’m not afraid to take a shot on a couple of pitchers. Painter is a big dude who checks a lot of boxes. My plan is to sell him when he hits his peak on prospect lists, and before he goes all Forrest Whitley on us at Triple-A” … but now that Painter has hit his peak on prospect lists, it’s so damn hard to sell. It’s so easy to fall in love with pitching prospects, but some do actually stay healthy and pan out, right? Painter seems like he is going to be one of those that do. He had a silly pitching line of 1.56/0.89/155/25 in 103.2 IP spread across 3 levels (A, A+, AA). He’s 6’7”, 215 pounds with plus control of an upper 90’s fastball, plus slider, potentially plus change, and an average curve. He just seems can’t miss … but if he does miss, my 2021/22 off-season self will just be shaking his head and laughing at me. 2023 Projection: 4/3.79/1.24/63 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.18/1.06/235 in 200 IP

16) Eury Perez MIA, RHP, 20.0 – Perez is a tall drink of water at 6’8”, 220 pounds (interestingly, or not so interestingly, “tall drink of water” was originally used as a derogatory term for a flavorless weakling, but mysteriously evolved into a compliment in the mid 1900’s), and he uses that frame to fire a mid to upper 90’s fastball with an easy, athletic delivery. He combines that with 3 potentially plus secondaries in his changeup, curve, and slider, to go along with plus control. It’s a flawless profile. The production is there too with a 34.1%/8.1% K%/BB% in 75 IP as a 19 year old at Double-A. A rough patch at the end of July (10.64 ERA in 11 IP) marred his end of season ERA at the level (4.08), and it resulted in him hitting the IL with a shoulder issue that kept him out until mid September. It’s a reminder of how risky all pitching prospects are, no matter how can’t miss they seem. 2023 Projection: 3/3.85/1.23/47 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.26/1.08/210 in 180 IP

17) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 20.8 – Tiedemann checks almost every box for a potential young ace. He has prototypical size at 6’4”, 220 pounds, with a nearly side arm lefty delivery that he uses to fire a mid 90’s fastball and 2 devastating secondaries in his slider and change. Minor league hitters had no chance. He put up a pitching line of 2.17/0.86/117/29 in 78.2 IP split across 3 levels (A, A+, AA). Maybe the only quibble is that he doesn’t have pinpoint control, but it’s not an issue or anything. He’s the top lefty pitching prospect in the game, and considering Toronto’s relatively depleted organizational pitching depth, don’t be surprised if he gets a ton of MLB innings in 2023.. 2023 Projection: 3/3.88/1.29/54 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.31/1.11/220 in 190 IP

18) Shane Baz TBR, RHP, 23.10 – Baz underwent Tommy John surgery in late September and will miss all of 2023. His elbow problems started in Spring when he underwent arthroscopic surgery. He was able to make it back for a month in June-July, and the stuff was still huge, but he eventually succumbed to the Tommy John. Like Buehler, I would optimally wait until next off-season to target him, but if you’re a rebuilding team he’s a great target. 2023 Projection: OUT Prime Projection: 13/3.38/1.09/198 in 170 IP

19) Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 21.4 – Alvarez is a 5’10”, 233 pound ball of muscle who walloped 27 homers in 112 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He then got a cup of coffee, or more like a sip of coffee in the majors and it took him only 14 PA to get his first MLB dinger. He had a 101.5 MPH FB/LD EV in that obviously very small sample, but it drives home the point that Alvarez has near elite power potential, especially for a catcher. He has some swing and miss in his game (24.8% K%), but he’s an OBP machine with a 14.1% BB%. Adley is the darling of the catcher world right now, but Alvarez’s superior over the fence power could easily make him the more valuable catcher not too far into the future. The Mets starting catcher job is wide open for the taking at the moment, but it seems they want him to get more defensive seasoning before handing the reins over to him. 2023 Projection: 47/20/61/.240/.331/.457/2 Prime Projection: 84/33/96/.254/.361/.520/3

20) Daniel Espino CLE, RHP, 22.3 – Espino was on his way to an insane season before falling off the face of the earth. He had a 2.45 ERA with a 35/4 K/BB in 18.1 IP at Double-A in April and then he never pitched again. It started as a knee issue and then turned into a shoulder issue too. Cleveland has kept the injury information very close to the vest so it’s unclear how serious the injuries are, but it was obviously serious enough that it ended his season. The stuff is so nasty with a 5 pitch mix led by an upper 90’s fastball and plus slider, that I would hesitate to sell low on him based on the mysterious injury risk. He has the upside to be a true fantasy ace and he’s knocking on the door of the bigs. Give me all the risk. 2023 Projection: 3/3.83/1.30/65 in 60 IP Prime Projection:  13/3.41/1.19/195 in 165 IP

21) Ezequiel Tovar COL, SS, 21.8 – In yet another testament to Colorado’s odd prospect developmental strategy, to put it nicely, Tovar went down with a hip/groin injury on June 29th at Double-A, and Colorado decided it would be best to have him return directly to Triple-A on September 15th before rushing him to the majors after just 5 games at that level. It’s almost as if they had a preset plan for Tovar’s season which they didn’t adjust at all based on what was actually happening. Regardless, Tovar is a good enough prospect to overcome Colorado’s brain trust. He’s not the type to jump off the screen, but he has a plus hit tool with developing power and base stealing skills. He slashed .319/.387/.540 with 14 homers, 17 steals, and a 66/27 K/BB in 71 games at mostly Double-A. I’m not sure the power/speed numbers will pop as much in the majors, but Coors should juice his best skill, batting average, and the SS job is his for the taking. 2023 Projection: 72/16/64/.261/.317/.402/13 Prime Projection: 86/22/71/.278/.332/.434/15

22) Kyle Manzardo TBR, 1B, 22.9 – I nicknamed Manzardo “Italian Lunch” in my in-season Dynasty Rundowns for a reason, because if you liked Italian Breakfast (Vinnie P), you’re going to love the next Italian meal (Manzardo). Like Vinnie, Manzardo has an elite plate approach with plus power. He slashed .327/.426/.617 with 22 homers and a 65/59 K/BB in 93 games split between High-A and Double-A. He barely dropped off at Double-A with 9 homers and a 148 wRC+ in 30 games. His path to playing time isn’t crystal clear with Tampa’s never ending depth (Aranda, Mead, and more), but that’s just the game with Tampa. If he produces when he gets his shot, they will find a spot for him. 2023 Projection: 19/5/23/.268/.334/.447/0 Prime Projection: 86/27/91/.281/.363/.488/1

23) Royce Lewis MIN, SS, 23.10 – I named Lewis a to player target last off-season, imploring you to buy the dip coming off a torn ACL. Now it’s deja vu all over again with Lewis once again down with a torn ACL, and once again I’m imploring you to buy the dip. He was in the midst of fully living up to his 1st pick overall hype, majorly improving his plate approach with a 20.9%/11.8% K%/BB% in 34 games at Triple-A. His power took a step forward as well with 5 homers and he maintained his plus speed with 12 steals. He quickly got called up to the majors and impressed with a 90.7 MPH EV, 12.2% K% and 146 wRC+ in 41 PA before going down with the injury in late May. I can’t deny that a 2nd torn ACL in the same knee is concerning, but Lewis has youth, and athleticism to spare on his side. He was blowing up to such a high level that I think downgrading Lewis too much based on the injury risk would be a mistake. 2023 Projection: 33/8/28/.258/.319/.423/5 Prime Projection: 84/24/82/.273/.335/.463/13

24) Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 23.3 – Casas is an OBP machine. He has a career .374 OBP in 284 minor league games and then he put up a .358 OBP with a 20% BB% in his 95 PA MLB debut. In an OBP league, he has a chance to be a real difference maker. It’s not so cut and dry in a 5×5 BA league. He’s never hit for high BA’s in the minors (career .269 BA) and he hit .197 (.193 xBA) in the majors. He’s a huge man with huge raw power, but he’s never really put up monster home run totals (11 homers in 72 Triple-A games). He doesn’t sell out for power. Boston’s hitter’s park should juice up all of his numbers, and I like Casas a lot regardless of league type, but I might curb your enthusiasm a little bit in a 5×5 BA. 2023 Projection: 78/24/81/.249/.334/.462/1 Prime Projection: 89/29/94/.263/.368/.510/2

25) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.0 – Armstrong had the power breakout I predicted in my Predicting the 2023 Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects from last off-season, writing, “Armstrong will not only pick up where he left off before he underwent shoulder surgery, he will show power potential many people doubt he has.” He ended up jacking 16 homers in 101 games split between Single-A and High-A. His speed wasn’t undersold either as he nabbed 32 bases. His plus CF defense will get him on the field, he has a good feel to hit, plus speed, and developing power. That is a beautiful fantasy profile. He’s not a finished product as his plate approach took a step back at the more age appropriate High-A with a mediocre 24%/4.9% K%/BB% in 63 games, but he could explode to elite prospect status if he performs in the upper minors in 2023. There is still a small buy window. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/18/66/.273/.335/.431/26

26) Hunter Brown HOU, RHP, 24.8 – Houston still has a full rotation even with Verlander leaving, but Brown will inevitably get his shot eventually, and I have no doubt he will thrive when he does. He throws a 96.6 MPH fastball that put up a .167 BA against in his 20.1 IP MLB debut, to go along with a plus slider (.246 xwOBA) and curve (.167 xwOBA). It led to a 0.89 ERA and 22/7 K/BB. He dominated at Triple-A too with a 2.55 ERA and 31.5%/10.6% K%/BB% in 106 IP. He’s likely a mid rotation fantasy starter as is, and if he can improve his control and/or his splitter/changeup, he has legitimate top of the rotation upside, especially in Houston’s pitching factory. He’s a major off-season target as he doesn’t get the hype that other top pitching prospects receive. 2023 Projection: 6/3.85/1.28/95 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.55/1.23/190 in 175 IP

27) Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 24.0 – Miller is 6’5”, 220 pounds with ace level stuff. He throws a fastball that sits in the upper 90’s, a filthy upper 80’s MPH changeup that gets about 10 MPH separation from the fastball, and 2 plus breaking balls in his slider and curve. His 4.25 ERA in 112.1 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A was surprisingly underwhelming considering the stuff. Part of it is because his fastball is relatively hittable, and while he doesn’t have major control problems, he’s no Greg Maddux. The other part of it is likely bad luck as his 30.5%/8.1% K%/BB% and 3.47 xFIP at Double-A looks much better than the 4.45 ERA he put up at the level. He has ace upside, and with the Dodgers’ pitching development prowess, mid-rotation might be his floor. 2023 Projection: 5/3.85/1.26/82 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.48/1.18/202 in 180 IP

28) Curtis Mead TBR, 3B, 22.6 – Mead is a safe bet to be a very good MLB hitter, but there are a few snafu’s keeping me from going too crazy for him. He’s not a good defensive player, which could be a problem with Tampa’s never ending depth. He’s not a huge base stealer and he has a line drive approach, so he might not put up huge power/speed numbers. His season also ended with a sore elbow, which I wouldn’t be too concerned about, but it is one more thing to tack on. I don’t mean to sound the alarm bells, because I do like him a ton. He hits the ball very hard, he has an excellent plate approach with an 18.1%/10.9% K%/BB%, and he crushed the upper minors with a 146 wRC+ at Double-A and 129 wRC+ at Triple-A. Carlos Correa over the last few years could be a good ceiling comp offensively. 2023 Projection: 26/7/29/.265/.327/.433/2 Prime Projection: 91/24/86/.282/.351/.473/5

29) Noelvi Marte CIN, SS, 21.5 – There is nothing scouts hate more than when players start to fill out before they want them to fill out, and I think scouts overestimate their ability to predict when players will lose their athleticism in general. Having said that, Marte filled out in 2022 and he’s definitely starting to look more like a thick, power hitting corner infielder than a wiry strong SS. It’s going to hurt his ranking on real life lists, but I would be careful about discounting him too much for fantasy. He has big time power (19 homers in 115 games at High-A), speed (23 steals), and while his hit tool isn’t great, he has a strong plate approach (20.1%/11.3% K%/BB%). He’s not a finished product, and I wouldn’t expect huge steal totals, but he can be mighty dangerous in the friendly confines of Great American Ballpark. He wouldn’t be untouchable for me (I recently traded him away in my 12 teamer for Cristian Javier), but I would need a very exciting win now piece to deal him. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 84/27/89/.263/.338/.484/12

30) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 20.4 – One look at Mayer’s controlled and explosive lefty swing really says it all. He used that swing to dominate Single-A in every facet of the game (150 wRC+ in 66 games), and then mostly did the same to close out the season at High-A (127 wRC+ in 25 games). His 25.2% K% is maybe slightly higher than you would like to see, but he mitigated that with a 16% BB%, and he was also a perfect 17 for 17 on the bases. He’s not a burner, but with the new stolen bases rules coming to the majors, maybe he’ll be able to nab more than we are expecting. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 94/25/87/.271/.363/.484/10

31) Oswald Peraza NYY, SS/2B, 22.10 – Like Volpe, Peraza started the year cold with a .583 OPS and 25.6% in his first 46 games at Triple-A before turning it around. He slashed .316/.382/.560 with 14 homers, 22 steals, and a 21.4% K% in his final 53 games at the level. He got called up to the majors in September and thrived, slashing .306/.404/.429 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 15.8%/10.5% K%/BB% in 57 PA. Statcast backs up the numbers with a well above average .343 xwOBA and 28.9 ft/sec sprint speed. The one red flag is his 81.6/84.0 MPH AVG/FB EV. That is quite low on 40 batted balls. It’s a small sample and he obviously has more power than that, but the power numbers he put up in the minors in 2021-22 could be misleading for what he will do in the majors. 2023 Projection: 58/14/59/.246/.303/.400/16 Prime Projection: 81/21/77/.269/.327/.441/22

32) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.7 – Carter was chugging along with a very good season at High-A, slashing .287/.388/.476 with 11 homers, 26 steals, and a 16.8%/13.2% K%/BB% in 100 games, and then he closed out the year with a bang at Double-A, slashing .429/.536/.714 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 6/5 K/BB in 6 games. His elite plate approach is made even more impressive by how  young he has been at every level he’s played at. He has plus speed, and at 6’4”, 190 pounds, he should naturally grow into more power, although his short and quick lefty swing is geared more for line drives. He could be a difference maker in OBP leagues, and in 5×5 BA he’s setting up to be a solid across the board type. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 89/20/77/.276/.365/.449/15

33) Emmanuel Rodriguez MIN, OF, 20.1 – I nicknamed Rodriguez Baby Bonds in the early season Dynasty Baseball Rundowns for a reason. He’s an OBP monster with a 28.6% BB% and .492 OBP, to go along with a plus power (9 homers) and speed (11 steals) in 49 games at Single-A. Granted he doesn’t have nearly Bonds’ hit tool with a 26.1% K%, but 3 outta 4 ain’t bad. In an OBP league, I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say he has elite upside. His season ended early when he tore his meniscus sliding into a base, but in my professional opinion a meniscus tear isn’t as bad as an ACL tear. I wouldn’t let the injury scare you off him too much. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 88/26/82/.251/.357/.485/12

34) Tink Hence STL, RHP, 20.8 – Say hello to the 2024 top pitching prospect in baseball. Hence was treated with kid gloves in 2022, never going over 4 IP, but he checked literally every other box. His stuff is straight filthy with 4 potentially plus pitches (mid 90’s fastball, curve, slider, change), he has an extremely athletic delivery with insane arm speed that reminds me a bit of Pedro Martinez, and his numbers were lights out with a pitching line of 2.16/0.96/81/15 in 52.1 IP at Single-A. He’s certainly getting plenty of hype right now, but it’s going to look like nothing compared to the hype explosion that’s coming in 2023. I was just able to nab him at 44th overall in the Toolshed Prospect Mock with other prospect writers/podcasters, so I think his price could still be relatively reasonable this off-season. He’s a buy high. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 14/3.29/1.09/205 in 180 IP

35) Kyle Harrison SFG, LHP, 21.8 – Harrison is almost guaranteed to be an impact fantasy starter because this guy is going to rack up K’s no matter what. He had a stupid 50% K% in 29 IP at High-A (1.55 ERA) and a 36.4% K% in 84 IP at Double-A (3.11 ERA) on the back of an elite fastball/slider combo from a 3 quarters lefty delivery. He mixes in a legitimate changeup as well. The only question is how high his WHIP will get on the MLB level, because his control is still knocking on the door of the danger zone with an 11.2% BB% at Double-A. It’s not so bad to get very concerned, but it’s bad enough to keep him from ascending to the true elite pitching prospect tier. From a numbers standpoint, Blake Snell is not the worst comp. 2023 Projection: 3/3.88/1.33/34 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.41/1.25/191 in 165 IP

36) Josh Jung TEX, 3B, 25.2 – Jung returned from shoulder surgery in late July and he must have been rusty because his plate approach was uncharacteristically horrific. He put up a 28.3%/3.8% K%/BB% in 23 games at Triple-A and a 38.2%/3.9% K%/BB% in 26 games in his MLB debut. It’s so out of pocket from the rest of his career. He had a 22.2%/9.1% K%/BB% in 78 games in the upper minors in 2021, so I’m inclined to cut him some slack. Shoulder injuries can sometimes sap power, but he was just fine in that category, jacking 9 homers in 31 minor league games and 5 homers in 26 MLB games. His 85.5 MPH EV and .287 xwOBA wasn’t great, but there was no guarantee he was even going to play in 2022 considering he underwent surgery in late February, so everything should look much better after a normal off-season and as he gets further away from the injury. 2023 Projection: 70/25/83/.252/.326/.462/3 Prime Projection: 84/29/91/.268/.343/.497/3

37) Brett Baty NYM, 3B, 23.5 – There is little doubt that the 6’3”, 210 pound lefty Baty is going to be a very good real life hitter. He smokes the ball with a 91.1 MPH EV and he has an excellent plate approach with a 24.8%/11.7% K%/BB%, leading to a .943 OPS in 95 games at mostly Double-A. He got called up to the majors and while he only put up a .586 OPS in 11 games, his .332 xwOBA was much better and a 19% K% is a good sign his K% isn’t going to explode. It’s a line drive approach (10 degree launch) with below average speed (26.8 ft/sec sprint), making him a very safe bet to be an impact bat, but likely without monster upside in a 5×5 BA league. He tore the UCL in his thumb in late August which required surgery, but he’ll be good to go for 2023, and with Correa not signing, the path to playing time is much more open now. 2023 Projection: 51/15/54/.253/.332/.440/2 Prime Projection: 84/25/86/.267/.349/.472/2

38) Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 23.0 – Cowser’s hit tool got exposed this year, putting up a 28.4% K% at High-A, 25.4% K% at Double-A, and 30.6% K% at Triple-A. It’s a little concerning considering that was supposed to be his best skill, but it’s not like he’s chopped liver everywhere else. He walked a ton with a 15% BB%, and he displayed an above average power/speed combo with 19 homers and 18 steals in 138 games. Even with the high strikeout rates he still put up a .278 BA. He showed more risk than optimal in 2022, but it was still a positive year overall with a .874 OPS. His strong across the board profile remains intact. 2023 Projection: 20/4/18/.248/.319/.405/4 Prime Projection: 85/20/77/.264/.343/.442/15

39) Robert Hassell WAS, OF, 21.8 – Hassell is becoming quite the divisive prospect, and it all comes down to his upside. His groundball rates were over 50% and he hit only 11 homers in 112 games split between High-A and Double-A. He’s fast, but he’s not an absolute burner, stealing only 1 bag in 27 games at Double-A (23 steals in 85 games at High-A). He has a potentially plus hit tool, and while a 19.9% K% at High-A is good, it’s not close to being elite, and it jumped to 28.7% at Double-A. He doesn’t have that one truly impressive tool. Having said that, the guy is just a damn good all around ballplayer, and there is still room to pack on muscle to his 6’2” frame. You don’t have to squint all that hard to see a future where he goes 20/20 with a good BA and high OBP hitting atop Washington’s lineup. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 87/18/72/.273/.348/.425/18

40) Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 22.0 – Bradley is a similar pitching prospect to what Logan Gilbert and George Kirby were. He heavily relies on an at least plus, mid 90’s fastball which he has plus control over, but the secondaries aren’t really standout. He’s also not as big as Gilbert and Kirby, which I don’t like to harp on, but it does factor in. He destroyed Double-A with a 1.70 ERA and 88/18 K/BB in 74.1 IP before taking a small step back at Triple-A with a 3.66 ERA and 53/15 K/BB in 59 IP. If his secondaries take a big jump, he can be a fantasy ace, but he’s more likely to settle into that 2/3 area. 2023 Projection: 3/3.83/1.23/47 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.41/1.08/176 in 170 IP

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
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