Posted on by Michael Halpern · 2 Comments

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/22/24)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/22/24):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-APRIL TOP 427 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (4/19/24)
-APRIL TOP 300+ PROSPECTS RANKS COMING NEXT WEEK
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: APRIL MAILBAG COMING WEDNESDAY!
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (4/3/24)
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-SPREADSHEETS

Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 23.7 – “The captain goes down with the ship.” That’s just Maritime Law. Now, I’m no sailor, but as the world’s foremost expert on Fantasy Law, there are some players that you are required to go down with the ship for, and Corbin Carroll is most certainly one of those players. I’ve seen a ton of panic and sell low offers for Carroll, but all of the warning signs could be flashing red, the sirens could be blaring, and you are still legally obligated to not sell low on an established elite dynasty asset like Carroll on April 22nd. And quite frankly, all of the warning signs are far from flashing red. The plate approach has been elite and better than ever with a 13.6%/13.6% K%/BB%, the whiff% is down to 17.3%, and the base running is elite with 8 steals. He’s definitely been unlucky too with a .288 wOBA vs. .328 xwOBA. The one big flashing warning sign is the 84.0 MPH EV, but the 91.0 MPH FB/LD EV and 110.1 Max EV both look much better, so I 100% think that is going to come way up over time. And it’s already starting to come up with a 88.9 MPH EV over his last 8 games. Obviously the shoulder is the big concern, but we haven’t heard anything about the shoulder bothering him, so using that as the reason to sell him seems too speculative. But all of that is besides the point anyway. The point is that Carroll is an established 23 year old beast with a .285/25/54 season already under his belt. This is a player you stay so patient with that the ship could actually be sinking, and you still hold on, but I don’t actually think the ship is sinking here. Hold on for dear life.

Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 25.6 – While we’re on the topic of elite or near elite dynasty assets that I’m not selling low on, let’s talk about Oneil Cruz (along with Jazz and Jordan below). Carroll you would have to still pay up for to acquire, but Cruz, Jazz and Jordan’s prices might be entering a mighty juicy area if their owner is getting frustrated, and I would be all over it. Cruz is struggling with a .587 OPS, but he is still absolutely crushing the ball with a 92.5 MPH EV, and he’s still running with 2 steals despite barely being on base. The 40.2% K% is scary, but his 31.6% whiff% is much lower than that and not far off from what he did last year. That K% is definitely going to come down, and when it does, only good things are going to happen with how hard he crushes the ball. Let’s also give him some leeway to shake the rust off after that very serious injury. He’s on about a 22/15 pace and that’s with him playing very poorly. I’m buying the slow start.

Jazz Chisholm MIA, OF, 26.2 – Jazz is off to a lukewarm start with a .699 OPS, and the perception on him feels lukewarm in general, which makes now a great time to go after him, especially considering there are things to be very excited about in the underlying numbers. For one, the swing and miss is way down with a career best 25.6% whiff% (35.7% in 2023), and the plate approach has been improved as well with a career best 11.4% BB% and 25.1% Chase%. These improvements haven’t hindered his power at all with a beastly 91.1 MPH EV and 15.1% Barrel%. He’s running a ton as well with 4 steals. This is true elite dynasty potential … as long as he stays healthy. It’s 100% fair to ding him for being injury prone, and we saw with Robert and Royce, it can definitely come back to bite you, but I like to take risks in fantasy, and Jazz is a risk worth taking.

Jordan Walker STL, OF, 21.10 – Walker is a 21 year old who improved his Barrel% 5 percentage points to 12.5%, his EV 2.9 MPH to 92.3 MPH, his launch 2.2 degrees to 12.4, his whiff% 2.4% percentage points to 27.6% and his BB% 1.5 percentage points to 9.5%. He’s blowing up … or I should say he should be blowing up, but the OPS sits at a horrific .511 OPS. Remember it’s still only 63 PA though. Wonky stuff happens in 63 PA, and this is definitely wonky. He’s been unlucky with a .304 xwOBA, but beyond being unlucky, the underlying numbers point to a big explosion coming in the near future. Walker is still on that elite dynasty asset journey, and if you can buy in now off the struggles to take that journey with him, I would go for it.

Ralphy Velazquez CLE, 1B, 18.10 – Now that we got The Bad News Bears out of the way, let’s talk about some guys off to legitimately exciting starts, and there are few breakout prospects I’m more excited about than Ralphy. He was a major FYPD target of mine, calling him “the Xavier Isaac of this draft class,” and he’s lived up to my billing of him after another big night at the dish, going 3 for 5 with a double that rocketed off his bat. He’s destroying Single-A as an 18 year old, slashing .375/.448/.688 with 4 homers and a 22.4%/12.1% K%/BB% in 12 games. Cleveland already moved him off catcher to 1B so the beastly bat could shine. He jumped to 339th overall on the updated Top 427 April Dynasty Rankings that hit the Patreon last week, which makes him an easy Top 100 prospect when I update the Top 300 Prospects Rankings next week.

Caden Dana LAA, RHP, 20.4 – Speaking of players moving into my Top 100 Prospects, Dana took a huge jump on those Updated Dynasty Rankings as well, and he backed up that jump with his best outing yet, going 7 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 8/1 K/BB as a 20 year old at Double-A. The camera angle was behind the plate for this one, and I loved the dramatic slow zoom-in from the camera person after every strikeout. A true artist. Dana now has a 1.47 ERA with a 28.4%/4.5% K%/BB% in 18.1 IP, and he has the stuff and build to back it up at 6’4”, 215 pounds with a plus fastball/slider combo. He also throws a curve and change. We might be talking about him as an elite pitching prospect in the not too distant future.

Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 22.11 – Jones demolished his first homer out to deep centerfield and tacked on 2 steals on a 3 for 4 day. He has a 191 wRC+ with a 20/8%/12.5% K%/BB% in 6 games. The improved strikeout rate is huge to see, and he’s lifting the ball more too with a 31.3% GB%. He’s carrying over the impressive spring into Double-A and is now an undisputed elite dynasty prospect. The Unicorn Revolution is in full swing with Wood and Jones ready to join Elly and Cruz.

Alfredo Duno CIN, C, 18.4 – Cincy skipped Duno over stateside rookie ball and threw him into the fire at Single-A as an 18 year old, and he’s responding after hitting his first homer at the level in 10 games. You can see the powerful and athletic swing right there from a 6’2”, 210 pound frame. He’s now slashing .282/.370/.487 with a 26.1%/10.9% K%/BB% and 141 wRC+. He’s been an elite dynasty prospect catcher waiting to happen since he was a high priced international signing, and while he’s not quite there yet, he’s certainly knocking on the door of the Top 100.

Jordan Westburg BAL, 2B/3B, 25.1 – Westburg was one of my top off-season targets, ranking him very high at #149 on the Top 1,000 and writing, “While Gunnar and Adley hog all the attention on the MLB level, and Holliday, Mayo, Basallo etc … hog all the attention on prospect lists, you should sneakily tip toe in there and steal Westburg from his current owner like a thief in the night” … and if you took my advice and did that, you better lock your doors and windows at night, because his former owner might be out for blood after seeing his start to the season. He had another huge day yesterday, going 2 for 3 with a 110.5 MPH homer and 107.6 MPH triple. He’s now slashing an insane .333/.392/.639 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 20%/6.3% K%/BB% in 20 games. The underlying numbers back it up with a 14% Barrel%, 93.8 MPH EV and .424 xwOBA. He already rose to #101 on the April Top 427 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), and even that might not be high enough. We could be talking about a Top 50 dynasty asset by May.

Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 24.0 – Cowser isn’t far behind Westburg, ranking 108th overall on those updated rankings, and he’s staying in lockstep with him, cracking a 111.5 MPH homer last night. He’s now slashing .373/.411/.784 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 30.4%/7.1% K%/BB% in 20 games. The underlying numbers back it up as well with a 17.1% Barrel%, 91.7 MPH EV, and .416 xwOBA. I give Westburg the edge because of the superior contact rates, but both of these guys are exploding into the type of core dynasty assets you build your team around.

Jose Soriano LAA, RHP, 25.6 – 6 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 7/3 K/BB vs. CIN. The sinker sat 97.2 MPH, and the curve and splitter racked up whiffs with a 41% and 50% whiff% respectively. He now has a 3.43 ERA with a 25% K% in 21 IP. Soriano has the great combo of keeping the ball on the ground with a negative 0.6 degree launch on the back of the sinker, huge velocity, and missing bats on the back of the sweeper, slider, and splitter. The control is the only thing that isn’t there with a 12.5% BB%, but with his kind of stuff, he can survive with below average control. And if the control takes a step forward, he could explode. I’m buying Soriano.

Luis Gil NYY, RHP, 25.10 – Speaking of poor control with huge stuff, Gil dominated yesterday, going 5.2 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 9/3 K/BB vs. TBR. The fastball sat 95.9 MPH and notched a 38% whiff%, while the slider notched a 40% whiff%. He has a 2.75 ERA with a 34.5% K% in 19.2 IP, but the 20.2% BB% is full blown panic territory. His control was horrific in the minors as well, so while it’s obviously not going to remain this high, it’s well in the danger territory. It makes me hesitant to fully pay up for him in a trade, but the upside is clearly worth hanging onto.

Mitchell Parker WAS, LHP, 24.7 – 7 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 8/0 K/BB vs. HOU. Parker is definitely moving into interesting territory after his 2nd strong outing, and in this one he was able to miss bats with a 29% whiff%. He now has a 1.50 ERA with a 27.9%/0.0% K%/BB% in 12 IP. He’s missed bats his entire minor league career with a deceptive lefty delivery, so seeing it transfer to the majors is huge, and most importantly for him, the control has been much improved this year. He only throws 91.9 MPH, and the control was below average prior to this year, so definitely tread carefully, but he’s certainly worth a pick up for a pitching starved team.

Andy Pages LAD, OF, 23.4 – Pages had his coming out party in the majors, going 2 for 4 with a 413 foot bomb for his first MLB homer. He passed Miguel Vargas on the depth chart and earned this callup with across the board destruction of Triple-A with a 181 wRC+ in 15 games, and LA seems intent on giving him a full time shot. The 83.3 MPH EV and 34.3% whiff% in 5 games shows there will be an adjustment period, but he also has a 22.2% Barrel%, and is sneaky fast with a 28.3 ft/sec sprint. He’s been raking since spring and proving the shoulder is 100% healthy. He’s one of the biggest early season risers.

Orelvis Martinez TOR, 2B/3B/SS, 22.4 – Orelvis is doing his darndest to kick the door down after hitting his 6th homer in his last 7 games. This thing exploded off his bat at 108.6 MPH. Along with the dingers, the hit tool has been as good as ever with a .333 BA and 21.5% K%. He’s only played 2B this year, which shows you what his path to playing time is. The problem is, Biggio, Clement, IKF and Schneider have all played well themselves on the MLB level, so it doesn’t make sense for Toronto to make a switch right now. Orelvis will have to be patient for injuries and/or struggles to hit first, but he’s doing all he can do to force the issue.

Austin Martin MIN, 2B/OF, 25.0 – The written off Austin Martin might finally be coming into his man muscles after jacking out his first MLB homer yesterday. That lightning quick righty swing reminds you why he got taken 5th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft. And his 88 MPH EV is very encouraging, although it comes with zero barrels and a 87.4 MPH FB/LD EV in 44 PA, so I don’t want to get ahead of myself here. But he’s always had the contact/speed profile, which is transferring with a 13.6% K% and top 23% sprint speed, so even a small uptick in power would go a long way. With Kepler returning soon, there isn’t a full time job for him, but Martin is putting some respect back on his name after falling out of favor over the past few years.

Wilyer Abreu BOS, OF, 24.10 – The Red Sox wanted to make it a point to get Abreu’s bat back in the lineup. and he showed why yesterday, going 3 for 5 with a 104.3 MPH double. Just like 2023, Abreu is proving he’s legit with a 9.1% Barrel%, 90.5 MPH EV, 16.5 degree launch, and 28.8%/15.3% K%/BB% in 59 PA. He’s also running a ton with 4 steals. He’s starting to establish himself as not only a rock solid real life hitter, but also as an impact fantasy player. He’s worthy of a pick up in all league sizes, and if you’ve read my work since last year, you likely already have him, at least in medium to deeper leagues.

 Bryan Woo SEA, RHP, 24.2 – Woo made his first rehab appearance at Triple-A coming off elbow inflammation, and he looked mostly healthy, going 3 perfect innings with 5 K’s. The fastball was down a tick to 93.9 MPH, but considering it was his first outing, I wouldn’t be worried about that, and all of his pitches racked up whiffs. He’s ready to continue his ascent to young ace status.

Blade Tidwell NYM, RHP, 22.10 – Many of the best pitching stashes have either already been called up or are likely already on people’s rosters, but Tidwell might be still out there, and he’s a worthy stash. He had another good outing yesterday, going 4 IP with 2 hit, 1 ER, and a 3/1 K/BB at Double-A. He now has a 1.84 ERA with a 32.1%/10.7% K%/BB% in 14.2 IP. The control is below average, but as long as he keeps it in a manageable range, the electric fastball/slider combo will do the rest. The path to a rotation spot is actually pretty crowded, so this might be more of a 2nd half call, and it’s also possible the Mets use him out of the bullpen, at least early in his career. But he’s worthy of keeping an eye on in all league sizes.

Dylan Beavers BAL, OF, 22.8 – Poor Mr. Beavers is going full breakout at Double-A after drilling his 2nd homer in 13 games, slashing .347/.421/.551 with 2 homers, 3 steals, a 34.2% GB%, and 19%/12.1% K%?BB%, but where in the world is this guy going to play. Kyle Stowers is about to be eligible for AARP, and he’s rotting away in the minors. The 25 year old Kjerstad seems like next man up, but he has 10 homers in 21 games and still hasn’t gotten the call. Coby Mayo has a 160 wRC+ with no path in sight. Let’s not even mention Connor Norby. Mr. Beavers is so far down the line, it’s like showing up to Starbucks during the lunch rush, seeing how insanely long the wait is going to be, and just turning around and leaving.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-APRIL TOP 427 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (4/19/24)
-APRIL TOP 300+ 2024 PROSPECTS RANKS COMING NEXT WEEK
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: APRIL MAILBAG COMING WEDNESDAY!
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (4/3/24)
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-SPREADSHEETS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

New York Mets 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I like to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team, and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the New York Mets 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-SEPTEMBER 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-SEPTEMBER 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: SEPTEMBER MAILBAG! (9/22/23)
-Off-Season content includes team dynasty reports, deep positional rankings, predicting future prospects lists, strategy articles, podcasts and very, very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Chicago White Sox–Colorado Rockies–Kansas City Royals–Milwaukee Brewers–New York Yankees (free)–San Diego Padres–Washington Nationals

Hitters

Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 22.4 – Two of the oldest tricks in the dynasty book of trading make Alvarez a very attractive target this off-season. A .222 BABIP dragged his BA down to .209 (only 5 players in all of baseball with over 400 PA had a lower BABIP), and he didn’t immediately put up Hall of Fame numbers in his rookie season with a below average 97 wRC+. Bad luck (the 26% K% and 31.8% whiff% weren’t bad at all), and lack of patience with prospects in their rookie year are basically the playbook on how to make trades that look fair at the moment, but end up looking like major rip-offs not too far into the future. And with top prospects flying through the minors faster than ever, these type of buy opportunities are likely to explode when everyone’s favorite 20 and 21 year olds take a minute to adjust to MLB pitching. It’s not like Alvarez’ price will be dirt cheap though, because his 25 homers were the 2nd most for all catchers, and the 90.1/95.7 MPH EV backs up the production. The scary thing is, this is just scratching the surface of his power potential. Alvarez is going to be a perennial 30+ homer bat from the catcher position for the next decade. 2024 Projection: 72/32/80/.239/.324/.472/4 Prime Projection: 85/34/93/.254/.351/.520/3

Mark Vientos NYM, 3B/1B, 24.4 – If Alvarez is out of your price range, Vientos might be more your speed, and you should be able to acquire him for next to nothing in most leagues. Like Alvarez, he got unlucky in 2023 with a .267 wOBA vs. .305 xwOBA, and like Alvarez, he has beastly power with a 92.5/97.6 MPH AVG/FB EV. That isn’t even “beastly power,” that is truly elite power. He put up a 94.4 MPH EV at Triple-A too. Speaking of Triple-A, he showed hit tool improvements at the level with a 21.6%/10.8% K%/BB% in 61 games, and completely demolished the level in general with a 143 wRC+. Showing that kind of swing and miss improvement gives hope he can do the same against MLB pitching with more experience (30.5% K% and 36.7% whiff%). Lack of defensive value is the biggest snafu, but elite power bats tend to force their way into the lineup, and at Vientos’ current dirt cheap price, it’s an easy call to take a shot on him. 2024 Projection: 59/23/71/.236/.315/.450/2 Prime Projection: 77/31/88/.248/.327/.493/2

Brett Baty NYM, 3B, 24.5 – Baty is stuck somewhere in between Alvarez and Vientos, in the sense he still has enough name value where his price won’t be that cheap, but his upside might not be quite high enough to pay that high price. He’s put up very high groundball rates his entire career and he had a 6.6 degree launch in 389 MLB PA in 2023. It led to a lowly 9 homers and 68 wRC+. He also doesn’t have the high contact rates to make up for it with a 28% K% and 31.5% whiff%. I don’t want this to come off like I don’t like him though, because I would bet on Baty becoming a very good MLB hitter. He has a mature plate approach, he hits the ball very hard, he has great size (6’3”, 210), he’s a solid defender at 3B, and he just looks like a hitter in the box. I’m just concerned about his upside in 5×5 BA leagues, and I don’t think his price will be all that cheap this off-season. 2024 Projection: 77/22/74/.246/.322/.435/4 Prime Projection:  84/26/88/.264/.347/.475/5

Pitchers

Kodai Senga NYM, RHP, 31.2 – Senga blew past all reasonable expectations in 2023. He put up a 2.98 ERA with a 29.1%/11.1% K%/BB% in 166.1 IP, and he was even better in the 2nd half with a 2.44 ERA and 29.8%9.1% K%/BB% in his final 84.2 IP. He did it on the back of an insane forkball that put up a 59.8% whiff% and .184 xwOBA. It was the highest whiff% on any pitch in all of baseball thrown at least 317 times (and if you lower the threshold all the way down to 54 pitches, it was the 4th highest mark). He throws gas with a 95.6 MPH fastball and has as diverse 6 pitch mix. Control is really the only thing that can tank him, and if you take into account he was adjusting to a new league and new ball in the 1st half of the season, his 2nd half 9.1% BB% really isn’t bad at all. It’s definitely possible he takes another step forward in year 2. Senga is the real deal. 2024 Projection: 13/3.37/1.17/197 in 165 IP

Bullpen

Edwin Diaz NYM, Closer, 30.0 – Diaz almost returned from March knee surgery in September, which makes me pretty confident he will be 100% in 2024. Any major surgery adds risk, but it’s not like it’s his elbow or shoulder. I’m treating him like the elite of the elite closer he is with a ridiculous 50.2% K% in 2022 on the back of a 99.1 MPH fastball and 90.8 MPH slider. If there is any slight discount to be had because of the injury, I would be all over it. 2024 Projection: 4/2.59/1.00/105/33 saves in 60 IP

New York Mets Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Ronny Mauricio NYM, 2B, 23.0 – I named Mauricio one of my top targets in the Top 10 Early Off-Season Dynasty Baseball Target article on Patreon. Mainstream prospects lists have been slowly sliding him down the rankings the closer he’s gotten to the majors, but I’ve done the exact opposite on my lists. He crushes the ball with a 117.3 MPH Max EV that was the 10th hardest hit ball all season. He had a 90.7 MPH AVG EV in 108 MLB PA (91.1 MPH at AAA). He loves to run with 7 MLB steals and 24 AAA steals, and his speed gets underrated with an above average 27.7 ft/sec sprint. He’s never had any major contact issues and he most certainly looks the part at 6’3” with a vicious swing. He doesn’t have a good plate approach with low walk rates, but keep in mind he’s always been very young for his level, and his 6.6% BB% at Triple-A (6.5% BB% in the majors) was a career high, so I wouldn’t bet against future improvement there either. His mediocre ranking on prospects and mediocre .643 OPS in the majors should create a very nice buy opportunity this off-season. 2024 Projection: 69/19/74/.254/.309/.435/21 Prime Projection: 83/24/83/.267/.325/.466/24

2) Jett Williams NYM, SS, 20.4 – Jett Williams got much thicker in all the right places in 2023, and that extra muscle paid dividends with him cracking 14 homers in 125 games split between Single-A (79 games), High-A (36 games), and Double-A (10 games). 9 of those homers came in his final 47 games. He combines the uptick in power with elite speed (45 steals), and an excellent plate approach (22.1%/19.5% K%/BB%). If he wasn’t 5’6”, he might be a consensus elite prospect already. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 93/20/77/.274/.350/.445/38

3) Luisangel Acuna NYM, SS/2B, 22.1 – Acuna’s power didn’t take a step forward in 2023 as hoped with only 9 homers in 121 games at Double-A, but there is definitely more raw juice in the tank with an explosive righty swing, and that was the only blemish on an otherwise excellent season. He put up a career best (other than the DSL) 18.6% K%, and he stole a career high 57 bases. It’s also really, really hard to resist the pull of elite bloodlines. Even if Acuna never develops big power, he can still be an impact fantasy player, and if does, watch out. 2024 Projection: 36/6/25/.239/.300/.382/14 Prime Projection: 82/17/68/.258/.328/.427/35

4) Drew Gilbert NYM, OF, 23.6 – Gilbert might be the safest prospect on this list. He does everything well on a baseball field with contact ability (18.9% K%), on base ability (11.3% BB%), power (18 homers), speed (12 steals), and good defense in 116 games at mostly Double-A. The power/speed combo isn’t quite big enough at only 5’9”, 195 pounds to really fly him up prospect lists, but he has a big lefty swing that makes him look much bigger in the box than his listed height, and I wouldn’t be shocked if his power surprised in the bigs. He’s a high floor prospect who might have more upside than his small stature would indicate. 2024 Projection: 41/10/33/.253/.318/.409/7 Prime Projection:  84/20/72/.273/.340/.438/14

5) Ryan Clifford NYM, 1B/OF, 20.7 – Here is what I wrote about Clifford in January of 2023 in my FYPD Target & Strategy Guide, “I’m planning on leaving every draft with Clifford, and he could be my #1 target in general. This guy checks almost every box you want to see for a monster power hitter (size, swing, lift, EV, organization, good pro debut, history of production). He also got drafted 343rd overall, meaning he should go super, super late in drafts. The one hiccup is the K rate was a bit on the high side, but the BB% was even higher to even it out, and he wasn’t expected to have major hit tool problems coming into the draft. He has legit star upside.” … you’re damn happy right now if you took my advice, as Clifford slashed .262/.374/.480 with 24 homers, 5 steals, and a 27.4%/12.5% K%/BB% in 115 games at mostly High-A. He scuffled after the trade to the Mets (so did Acuna), but I think you have to take into account an adjustment period when you join a new team, new city, new coaches etc … He’s right on track to become a high OBP, low BA slugger. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/30/86/.248/.332/.487/6

6) Christian Scott NYM, RHP, 24.10 – Scott had a truly elite 32.8%/3.4% K%/BB% in 62 IP at Double-A. He had a 107/12 K/BB in 87 IP on the season. Let’s not overthink things too much. Those are eye opening K/BB numbers and they led to a 2.57 ERA with a 0.86 WHIP. And it’s not like he did it with smoke and mirrors. He’s 6’4”, 215 pounds with a relatively easy, smooth, and athletic delivery . He throws a low to mid 90’s fastball that he can even got into the upper 90’s, and his slider is a plus, bat missing weapon. He rounds out the arsenal with a curve and change. To sum it all up, this a big man with elite control, a fastball that consistently hits the mid 90’s, a put away slider, a diverse pitch mix, and upper minors dominance. The more I think about and watch Scott, the more I love him. He’s getting considerably underrated. 2024 Projection: 3/4.22/1.28/44 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.82/1.18/169 in 160 IP

7) Alex Ramirez NYM, OF, 21.3 – Ramirez continues to sit in the breakout waiting room for his 3rd straight year. I know it’s getting frustrating, but all of the same ingredients are there that made him so exciting in previous years. He had a very good 21.9%/10.7% K%/BB% in 120 games at High-A, and he also stole 21 bags. He just needs to finally start tacking on mass to his skinny 6’3” frame, because only 7 homers with a 78 wRC+ is not going to get the job done. He’s too young to give up on such tantalizing tools, but 2024 is the last year he gets to live on “potential.” We need to see some real production. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 73/18/72/.252/.320/.423/21

8) Colin Houck NYM, SS, 19.6 – Selected 32nd overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, the 6’2”, 190 pound Houck is an excellent all around athlete who was also a heavily recruited star quarterback in high school. He’s not just raw tools though, he also has a good feel to hit with a mature approach at the plate. His value held serve in his pro debut with a dead average 100 wRC+, 0 homers, 0 steals, and a 22.2%/19.4% K%/BB% in 9 games. The power isn’t plus quite yet, and while he’s fast, he’s not lightning fast, so it all might project to an above average across the board profile. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 81/22/79/.272/.338/.453/14

9) Kevin Parada NYM, C, 22.8 – Parada had such an underwhelming season for an advanced college bat. He had 11 homers with a 25.1%/7.9% K%/BB% in 87 at High-A, and then he put up a 38.3%/6.7% K%/BB% with a 70 wRC+ in 14 games at Double-A. He didn’t hit for a ton of power, he didn’t get on base, and he didn’t hit for average. He’s not considered a good defensive catcher, so he was probably putting a ton of focus into his defense, which is often why catchers take longer to develop in general, but that isn’t exactly a point in Parada’s favor for fantasy either. He’s starting to look like a pretty low upside option with multiple areas of risk (hit tool, defense, Francisco Alvarez). ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 66/22/75/.247/.323/.447/2

10) Blade Tidwell NYM, RHP, 22.10 – The 6’4”, 207 pound Tidwell is a high upside pitcher with both control risk and reliever risk. He throws an electric fastball/slider combo with the fastball sitting mid to upper 90’s and the slider racking up whiffs. It led to a 3.09 ERA with a 33% K% in 81.2 IP at High-A and a 4.72 ERA with a 27.7% K% in 34.1 IP at Double-A. The problem is that his control is in the danger zone with a 12.9% BB%, and the changeup needs to develop into a legitimate 3rd pitch. You want to aim for upside in fantasy, which is why I like Tidwell at his current value, but he can very easily end up in the pen. 2024 Projection: 2/4.32/1.36/39 in 35 IP Prime Projection: 9/3.94/1.32/170 in 150 IP

Just Missed 

11) Marco Vargas NYM, SS, 18.10

12) Jeremy Rodriguez NYM, SS, 17.9

13) AJ Ewing NYM, 2B, 19.8 – Selected 134th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Ewing got dinged because of questionable power potential, but he’s not a small guy at a relatively strong 6’0”, and he hits the ball hard with a vicious lefty swing, so I’m not sure why that got put on him. He had a strong pro debut with a 161 wRC+, 0 homers (14.3% GB%), 1 steal, and a 28.6%/23.8% K%/BB% in 7 games. He has a good feel to hit, mature approach, above average speed, and more power than he is given credit for. He has a chance to be quite good. He makes for a great underrated FYPD target. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 82/20/79/.265/.336/.438/16

14) Mike Vasil NYM, RHP, 24.0

15) Jacob Reimer NYM, 3B, 20.1

16) Jesus Baez NYM, SS, 19.1 

17) Calvin Ziegler NYM, RHP, 21.6

18) Joander Suarez NYM, RHP, 24.1

19) Matt Rudick NYM, OF, 25.9

20) Brandon Sproat NYM, RHP, 23.7

21) Julio Zayas NYM, C, 18.2

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Opportunity is a major factor in success. I always think about how many players could have been successful major leaguers if they were given a legit opportunity and had the leash to make adjustments. As much as we want to fall in love with every poor defensive masher, or lightening fast utility type player, we have to account for the fact those types may very well never really get the opportunity to reach their full potential. There are only so many jobs available in major league baseball, and the vets who are on million dollar deals, or the high draft picks, or the high signing bonus players will get the priority over our favorite underrated prospects. Having said that, I’m going to ignore everything I just said and still go after the defensively limited Vientos this off-season. It’s easier to give advice than to take it 😉

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Chicago White Sox–Colorado Rockies–Kansas City Royals–Milwaukee Brewers–New York Yankees (free)–San Diego Padres–Washington Nationals

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-SEPTEMBER 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-SEPTEMBER 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: SEPTEMBER MAILBAG! (9/22/23)
-Off-Season content includes team dynasty reports, deep positional rankings, predicting future prospects lists, strategy articles, podcasts and very, very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

New York Mets 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the New York Mets 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 59 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-Dynasty Team Reports, Positional Dynasty Rankings, strategy articles, target articles, and early access to the Top 100 FYPD Rankings, Top 500 Prospects Rankings, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings hot off the presses as I put them together (released for free on IBW at some point in March)

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago White Sox—Colorado Rockies—Kansas City Royals—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—Texas Rangers—Washington Nationals

Bullpen

Edwin Diaz NYM, Closer, 29.0 – Diaz ascended to best closer in baseball status with an unbelievable 50.2% K% in 62 IP. His career 40.3% K% is the 2nd best mark in the history of baseball, behind the man who he just unseated as the top closer, Josh Hader (43.2%). The highest ranked starter on that list is Spencer Strider at 9th overall. Diaz is not just a one trick pony though, he also induces with contact with a 85.5 MPH EV against which was in the top 4% of the league, and he doesn’t have any control problems with an above average 7.7% BB%. He should be the top closer off the board. 2023 Projection: 4/2.68/0.98/108 in 64 IP

Starting Pitchers

Jacob deGrom NYM, RHP, 34.10 – deGrom is 34 years old, but he is in that tier of elite athlete that could continue to play at a high level into their 40’s. Just look at Tom Brady. He’s 45 and he has 300 pound, sub 5.0 forty guys trying to take his head off. deGrom is in that super elite class, and he doesn’t have to deal with standing strong in the pocket with an unprotected blitz descending upon him. He just put up an absolutely silly 42.7%/3.3% K%/BB% with a 0.75 WHIP in 64.1 IP. Both his 2021 and 2022 have been injury shortened seasons with a UCL and shoulder injury, but I think those numbers speak to themselves as to how the arm was feeling. He could easily have another 5 elite years in the tank, and why not 10. It’s not like young pitching is really any safer, as young pitchers are arguably more risky than older guys. Use deGrom’s advanced age and injury shortened seasons to your advantage. 2023 Projection: 14/2.51/0.95/220 in 170 IP

Tylor Megill NYM, RHP, 27.8 – Megill was one of my top cheap pitcher targets in 2022, and I’m going back to the well in 2023. He has plus stuff (95.7 MPH), plus swing and miss ability (27.6% whiff%), and plus control (6.5% BB%). He was in the midst of not only backing up his strong 2021, but taking the breakout to another level before a biceps and shoulder injury put a halt to it. He returned in September in a bullpen role and the fastball was still up over 95 MPH. The Mets 2023 rotation is unsettled, so there is no guarantee he wins a rotation spot out of camp, but he’ll inevitably get another shot at some point. 2023 Projection: 8/3.78/1.21/153 in 140 IP

David Peterson NYM, LHP, 27.7 – Peterson’s velocity was up on all of his pitches (93.7 MPH fastball) and it led to his whiff% exploding to near elite levels at 30.2%. His slider in particular popped, putting up the 4th highest whiff% amongst starters at 47.9%. He throws a 5 pitch mix and keeps the ball on the ground with a 49.4% GB%. It led to a 3.83 ERA and 126/48 K/BB in 105.2 IP. Like Megill, there is no guarantee he wins a rotation spot, but he’s a no brainer target. I’ll be going after him regardless of league size. 2023 Projection: 8/3.67/1.28/156 in 140 IP

Hitters

Francisco Lindor NYM, SS, 29.5 – Lindor was one of my top buys in 2022, ranking him 23rd overall in my 2022 Top 1,000 Rankings and closing his blurb by writing, “Lindor is an easy buy this off-season.” As expected, that is exactly how it played out with Lindor bouncing back to finish as the 10th best fantasy player in baseball (Razzball Player Rater). He simply did what he’s done his entire career, which is more or less be an above average player in every facet of the game. He should have a few more years of prime production left before his stolen bases dry up the deeper he gets into his 30’s as he is slowing down a little bit. 2023 Projection: 94/25/89/.263/.330/.453/17

Top 10 New York Mets Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 21.4 – Alvarez is a 5’10”, 233 pound ball of muscle who walloped 27 homers in 112 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He then got a cup of coffee, or more like a sip of coffee in the majors and it took him only 14 PA to get his first MLB dinger. He had a 101.5 MPH FB/LD EV in that obviously very small sample, but it drives home the point that Alvarez has near elite power potential, especially for a catcher. He has some swing and miss in his game (24.8% K%), but he’s an OBP machine with a 14.1% BB%. Adley is the darling of the catcher world right now, but Alvarez’s superior over the fence power could easily make him the more valuable catcher not too far into the future, and the Mets starting catcher job is wide open for the taking at the moment. 2023 Projection: 67/26/80/.240/.331/.457/3 Prime Projection: 84/33/96/.254/.361/.520/3

2) Brett Baty NYM, 3B, 23.5 – There is little doubt that the 6’3”, 210 pound lefty Baty is going to be a very good real life hitter. He smokes the ball with a 91.1 MPH EV and he has an excellent plate approach with a 24.8%/11.7% K%/BB%, leading to a .943 OPS in 95 games at mostly Double-A. He got called up to the majors and while he only put up a .586 OPS in 11 games, his .332 xwOBA was much better and a 19% K% is a good sign his K% isn’t going to explode. It’s a line drive approach (10 degree launch) with below average speed (26.8 ft/sec sprint), making him a very safe bet to be an impact bat, but likely without monster upside in a 5×5 BA league. He tore his the UCL in his thumb in late August which required surgery, but he’ll be good to go for 2023. 2023 Projection: 73/22/79/.253/.332/.440/2 Prime Projection: 84/25/86/.267/.349/.472/2

3) Alex Ramirez NYM, OF, 20.6 – The super projectable Ramirez remains super projectable at a skinny 6’3”, so even though he hit only 11 homers in 121 games, there is much more coming down the road. The more encouraging thing is that he started to refine his game in 2022 with a very good 22.9%/9.2% K%/BB% in 67 games at Single-A and a 22%/6.5% K%/BB% in 54 games at High-A. It led to a 129 wRC+ at the age appropriate Single-A and a 109 wRC+ at High-A. He’s a poor base stealer, going 21 for 37 on the bases (4 for 11 at High-A), so he’ll probably only contribute a handful at peak especially as he slows down, but Ramirez has the type of skillset that could explode into elite prospect territory in short order. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 84/23/78/.268/.333/.458/11

4) Kevin Parada NYM, C, 21.8 – If you liked Henry Davis, you are going to love Keven Parada. Selected 11th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Parada looks the part of a catcher with two tree trunks for legs. He used that power base to have an insane power explosion this season, going from 9 homers in 2021, to 26 homers in 2022 over 60 ACC games. He also has a strong hit tool with a .361 BA and 32/30 K/BB. His value held serve in his pro debut, hitting the ball hard and putting up a .880 OPS in 13 games at mostly Single-A. I wouldn’t be too worried about New York already having Francisco Alvarez as they can both catch a ton of games and then DH on the other days. It will also preserve their careers in the long run. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 78/25/81/.268/.339/.475/3

5) Ronny Mauricio NYM, SS, 22.0 – The good news is that Mauricio is fully realizing his power potential, crushing 26 homers in 123 games at Double-A, but the bad news is that he just can’t seem to refine his plate approach with a 23.1%/4.4% K%/BB%. It makes it tough to buy into him in OBP leagues, but I wouldn’t be too scared off in 5×5 BA leagues because his defense should be able to keep him on the field. He’s been young for every level he’s played at, and he’s currently lighting up the Dominican Winter League with 2 homers, a 1.223 OPS and a 5/3 K/BB in 8 games, so he’s far from a finished product. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/25/82/.264/.317/.455/9

6) Jett Williams NYM, SS, 19.5 – Selected 14th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Williams is a small but explosive player with strong EV numbers and plus speed. The hit tool is his calling card, which makes him relatively safe, and it’s possible his upside isn’t being respected enough because the discrimination against small guys (5’8”, 175 pounds). He’s definitely not a slap hitter. He displayed all of those skills in his pro debut, slashing .250/.366/.437 with 1 homer, 6 steals, and a 14.6%/9.8% K%/BB% in 10 games. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 87/17/71/.278/.343/.438/24

7) Mark Vientos NYM, 3B/1B, 23.4 – Vientos is 6’4”, 185 pounds with a big righty hack that is made to hit dingers. He jacked 24 homers in 101 games games at Triple-A and then hit the majors and put up a 93.3 MPH EV in 41 PA. On the flip side, he has major hit tool concerns which could tank him with a 28.6% K% at Triple-A and a 29.3% K% (.167 BA) in the majors. He also isn’t a great defensive player and he had pretty major splits this year (.734 vs righties/1.094 vs lefties). The risk is that he becomes a short side of a platoon DH/bench bat, but the upside is a 30+ homer bat. 2023 Projection: 29/10/38/.228/.297/.425/0 Prime Projection: 68/26/79/.248/.327/.488/1

8) Matt Allan NYM, RHP, 21.11 – Allan underwent Tommy John surgery in May of 2021 and was out for all of 2022. When healthy, he throws a mid 90’s fastball with a plus, high spin rate curveball and a changeup that was showing improvement before going down. He’s only pitched 10.1 professional innings in his career, and he hasn’t pitched in a game since 2019, so while the upside is high, the risk is too. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 11/3.88/1.26/175 in 165 IP

9) Blade Tidwell NYM, RHP, 21.10 – Selected 52nd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Tidwell throws gas with a fastball that can consistently reach the upper 90’s. He combines that with a potentially plus slider and developing changeup. He was limited to only 39 IP in the SEC due to shoulder soreness, but he pitched well in those innings with a 3.00 ERA and 51/11 K/BB. He then stepped into pro ball and proved the shoulder is just fine by dominating in the Single-A playoffs, going 9.2 IP with 5 hits, 0 ER and a 13/2 K/BB over 2 outings. He makes for a great later round FYPD target if you stack up on hitters early. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 11/3.85/1.28/165 in 160 IP

10) Dominic Hamel NYM, RHP, 24.1 – Hamel is a spin monster with basically his entire arsenal putting up high spin rates (fastball, curve, slider). It led to a 3.25 ERA and 145/54 K/BB in 119 IP split between Single-A and High-A. The fastball only sits in the low 90’s, his control isn’t great, and he’s old for the lower minors, so it’s probably more of a back end profile with mid-rotation upside. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 10/4.10/1.32/171 in 165 IP

Just Missed

11) Calvin Ziegler NYM, RHP, 20.6

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

I already alluded to it in the Jacob deGrom blurb, but there is great value to be had in Dynasty leagues by going after older pitching. Old guys can get downgraded too much in general, but it’s especially unwarranted with pitchers. Having a track record of being able to throw a full starter’s workload is really more important than having youth. Young pitchers have often never thrown, and sometimes haven’t even come close to throwing a full workload, making it a major question mark if they can even do it. You also almost have to expect and plan for a flame throwing youngster to miss 1-2 years with Tommy John surgery. The older guys might have gotten that Tommy John out of the way already. Plus, pitching is so risky in general that I wouldn’t count on any pitcher, regardless of age, to be a long term core of my dynasty team. I’ll build a core of young hitters, and then go after established pitching when I think I have that 3-5 year contention window to make my mark.

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago White Sox—Colorado Rockies—Kansas City Royals—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—Texas Rangers—Washington Nationals

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 59 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-Dynasty Team Reports, Positional Dynasty Rankings, strategy articles, target articles, and early access to the Top 100 FYPD Rankings, Top 500 Prospects Rankings, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings hot off the presses as I put them together (released for free on IBW at some point in March)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)