Uncategorized – Page 14 – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on June 27, 2022June 29, 2022 by Michael Halpern

IBW Presents Wild Card Week on the Patreon!

It’s Wild Card Week on the Patreon! Wild Card Week will include the Updated OBP Dynasty Rankings, Top 10 Mid-Season Trade Targets, Top 10 Trade Negotiation Techniques and more. First post will drop later tomorrow. There is also tons of content already up for June. Check it all out:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED JUNE 2022 TOP 350 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-UPDATED JUNE 2022 TOP 445 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED JUNE POINTS/6+CATS/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 430 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 16 2023 FYPD RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

-Halp

Posted on June 23, 2022June 25, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Updated Points/6+Cats/OPS “Universal” Top 430 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

The Updated Points/6+Cats/OPS “Universal” Top 430 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings are for leagues that juice up good real life hitters and devalues speed. Their 5×5 BA ranking is in parenthesis. Let’s get to it:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS AND TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED JUNE 2022 TOP 350 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-UPDATED JUNE 2022 TOP 445 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 16 2023 FYPD RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

Tier 1

1) (3) Juan Soto WASH, OF, 23.7 – Not dropping his ranking at all yet. Underlying numbers are still elite

2) (2) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 24.5

3) (8) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 24.10 – Yordan and Vlad are made for this type of format where speed is devalued. I can see going with them even over Acuna depending on the specific rules

4) (1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 27.11

5) (9) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 23.2

6) (4) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 25.4

7) (5) Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 23.5

8) (16) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 30.9 – So good that I think he deserves to be in Tier 1 in these kinds of formats despite the fact he is 30

9) (18) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 25.6 – Low walk rates are the only thing keeping me from ranking him even higher

10) (21) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 30.0 -.465 xwOBA is 2nd to only Yordan

11) (11) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 29.6

12) (15) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 29.5 – UCL thing is still in the back of my mind even though it doesn’t look to be affecting him much

Tier 2

13) (24) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 27.5

14) (31) Austin Riley ATL, 3B, 25.1

15) (14) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 21.3 – He’s a great long term 5×5 fantasy asset, but he’s even better in a format that rewards good real life hitters

16) (6) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 21.4 – Julio and Witt take a hit in these rankings because they have not established themselves as elite hitters yet and their stolen bases don’t make as much of an impact.

17) (7) Bobby Witt Jr. KC, SS, 21.10

Shadow17) (16) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 27.9

18) (10) Trea Turner LAD, SS, 28.10

19) (19) Corbin Burnes MIL, RHP, 27.6

20) (20) Shane McClanahan TBR, LHP, 25.0

21) (32) Matt Olson ATL, 1B, 28.1

22) (12) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 24.3

23) (13) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 24.10

24) (22) Manny Machado SD, 3B, 29.10

25) (17) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 29.6 – On the IL with a cracked rib but they are hopeful he can return in a couple of weeks. There is definitely risk this could hurt his production when he returns

26) (44) Corey Seager TEX, SS, 28.0

Tier 3

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on June 14, 2022June 18, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 445 June 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

It’s Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week over on the Patreon. We complete the rankings today with the Top 445. Quick notes for almost every player. Here is the Top 445 June 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THIS ARTICLE AND TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED JUNE 2022 TOP 350 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-UPDATED JUNE 2022 TOP 445 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

Tier 1

1) (1) (1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 27.11 – Surface stats haven’t been as good on the hitting side, but a .395 xwOBA shows he’s as good as ever. On the pitching side he’s setting a career high mark on K% (31.7%) and BB% (5.8% BB%).

2) (3) (3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 24.5 – What torn ACL? Acuna is right back to being a beast with a .424 xwOBA and 11 steals in 32 games. His sprint speed is down to 28.1 ft/sec, but a 4.29 HP to 1B runtime is right in line with where he was in 2020-21

3) (2) (2) Juan Soto WASH, OF, 23.7 – 89.3 MPH EV is a career low, but his down surface stats (.835 OPS) are mostly due to a .228 BABIP.

4) (5) (8) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 25.4 – 13.4% BB% is a career high by far. He’s on pace for a 29/29 season

5) (4) (5) Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 23.5 – CT scan did not show enough healing to resume swinging and his timeline is pushed back

6) (22) (21) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 21.4 – Hasn’t established himself as a truly elite hitter yet, but it seems like a foregone conclusion

7) (26) (20) Bobby Witt Jr. KC, SS, 21.10 – Slashing .278/.339/.602 with 7 homers, 5 steals, and a 27/9 K/BB in his last 29 games. Rodriguez and Witt have done enough to prove they are going to be elite fantasy players, even if they aren’t quite there yet

8) (7) (15) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 24.10 – .489 xwOBA is just stupid. In a 5×5 BA league I just don’t think I can give up the all category potential of Witt and Rodriguez though. I will update the Universal Rankings (and OBP rankings too) in 2 weeks, and those rankings will be a different story

9) (6) (4) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 23.2 – .247 BABIP is keeping the surface stats down, and a .392 xwOBA is still elite. The launch angle is back down to 4.4 degrees though

Tier 2

10) (11) (7) Trea Turner LAD, SS, 28.10 – Here’s what I wrote in last month’s update, “2021 homer breakout hasn’t held with only 1 homer, but a career high 50% HardHit% shows the power will likely come” He’s ripped 6 homers since then

11) (12) (12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 29.6 – He’s back to running with 6 steals in his last 19 games. If I was rebuilding, I would likely prefer the youngsters ranked after him

12) (8) (6) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 24.3 – Slashing .314/.369/.598 with 7 homers, 1 steal, and a 23/9 K/BB in his last 24 games. Sprint speed is down to a mediocre 27.3 MPH and he’s only 4 for 7 on the bases. It’s not a great sign for his future stolen base numbers

13) (9) (10) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 24.10 – In the midst of a cold streak with a .520 OPS in his last 14 games. Underlying numbers show he is still a 5×5 BA beast

14) (10) (11) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 21.3 – Has been out for all of June with a quad injury

15) (13) (13) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 29.5 – Small tear in his UCL doesn’t seem to be an issue as he has a 1.006 OPS in his last 20 games

16) (14) (17) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 30.9 – He’s dodged a couple of land mines with some minor injuries that he’s managed to come back quickly from

Shadow16) (14) (13) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 27.9

17) (19) (22) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 29.6 – 1.038 OPS in his last 29 games definitely answered the question of whether he is still elite or not

18) (16) (14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 25.6

19) (17) (16) Corbin Burnes MIL, RHP, 27.6

20) (35) (69) Shane McClanahan TBR, LHP, 25.0 – 0.90 ERA with a 51/4 K/BB in his last 40 IP. He might be the best pitcher in baseball. I named McClanahan as one of my Top 10 Targets on July 1st of last year, finishing the write up by saying, ” I would consider making an offer that seems like an overpay on it’s face, but actually might look like a steal one year from now.” Safe to say if you traded for him then, it looks like a steal today.

21) (24) (27) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 30.0 – 24 homers leads the majors by far. Alsono is 2nd with 18

22) (18) (18) Manny Machado SD, 3B, 29.10 – Cooling off a little with a .625 OPS in his last 18 games

Tier 3

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 31, 2022June 2, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 350 June 2022 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings

I reversed course on this one and was very lenient with my definition of a prospect, so the previous ranking in parenthesis might indicate a bigger drop than actually happened due to adding a bunch of players who weren’t eligible on my last stricter update. Here is the Top 350 June 2022 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS AND TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED MAY 2022 TOP 433 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED JUNE 2022 TOP 350 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

1) (7) Royce Lewis MIN, SS, 23.0 – I’m trying to make a case why Lewis shouldn’t be the #1 prospect in baseball and I just can’t do it. He already rose to #7 overall in last month’s update before he got the call to the majors, and then he went out and proved the skills will translate against MLB pitching with a 16.2% whiff% and 90.7 MPH EV in 41 PA. He has all the talent in the world as a former #1 overall pick and he destroyed Triple-A in every facet of the game. While the prospects ranked after him are every bit as talented, proving it in the majors is a big deal, as we’ve seen top prospects come up and quickly establish they just can’t handle MLB pitching … cough, Jarred Kelenic, clearing throat sound, cough, cough. I obviously don’t love the knee injury after he crashed into the wall, but right now it’s not looking like a major injury

2) (5) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 21.9 – Hasn’t slowed down in May at all with a 1.031 OPS at Double-A

3) (1) Riley Greene DET, OF, 21.8 – Began his rehab assignment from a broken foot and went 1 for 4 in his first game back at Triple-A

4) (4) Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 23.8 – K% is all the way down to a respectable 25.1%, and in his last 20 games he’s slashing .281/.392/.549 with 6 homers, 3 steals, and a 19/12 K/BB at Triple-A. I’m still all in on Cruz

5) (2) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 22.6 – 0.94 ERA with a 43/9 K/BB in his last 28.2 IP at Triple-A. I have no idea why he isn’t in the majors already Update: Left his last start with a lat injury. Fucking pitching prospects man

6) (6/UR) Shane Baz TBR, RHP, 22.11 – Due to being more strict on my last prospects update, Baz wasn’t included, but he was my 6th ranked prospect in the Top 433 May 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings from 2 weeks ago. He recently began a rehab assignment at Triple-A and should be back in the majors soon.

7) (3) Adley Rutschman BAL, C, 24.4 – Plate approach skills are transferring to the majors with a 17.1%/11.4% K%/BB% in 35 PA. He has 0 barrels, but an 89 MPH EV ain’t bad, so he’ll find the barrel of the bat eventually

8) (12) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS, 20.11 – Not only has his plate approach not regressed, but he’s taken it to another level recently with a 13.6%/22.2% K%/BB% in his last 19 games at Double-A

9) (13) Jordan Walker STL, 3B, 20.0 – Power hasn’t fully shown up with 4 homers and a 50.5% GB% in 40 games at Double-A, but at 6’5”, 220 pounds, that is the last thing we have to worry about

10) (8/UR) CJ Abrams SD, SS, 21.8 – I still love Abrams, but I just trust the power of Henderson and Walker more, and they are doing it in the upper levels of the minors now too. Like Baz, Abrams wasn’t included in the last Prospects Rankings but he ranked 8th on the latest Dynasty Rankings.

11) (8) George Kirby SEA, RHP, 24.4 – Exactly as advertised with plus control (2.4% BB%) of a plus 95.5 MPH fastball (30.4% whiff%), to go along with effective but not exceptional secondaries

12) (13/UR) MJ Melendez KCR, C, 23.6 – K% hasn’t ballooned in the majors with a respectable 27.1% whiff% which has allowed his no joke power to shine with a 91.7 MPH EV and 4 homers in 22 games

13) (9) Daniel Espino CLE, RHP, 21.5 – Currently out with some knee tendinitis that doesn’t seem serious, but he’s also been out since April 29th so maybe it was more serious than they were letting on. I wouldn’t downgrade him one iota because of the injury at this point

14) (21) Eury Perez MIA, RHP, 19.2 – 2.12 ERA with a 20/4 K/BB in 17 IP in May. The fastball has hit over 100 MPH this year. He’s gonna be an ace

15) (29/UR) MacKenzie Gore SDP, LHP, 23.3 – He’s outperforming the underlying numbers with a 1.71 ERA vs. a 3.32 xERA (also a 28.3% K% vs. a 25.1% whiff%), but that is just nitpicking as his electric 4 pitch mix is shining due to improved control (8.4% BB% in 42 IP)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 17, 2022May 20, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 432 May 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

It’s that time of the month again when the flowers are blooming and the rankings are flowing. It’s Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week! Last month’s rankings are in parenthesis. Here is the Top 432 May 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS AND TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED May 2022 TOP 316 DYNASTY PROSEPCTS RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

Tier 1

1) (1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 27.10 – Strikeouts are down in a good way (22.4% K% at the dish) and up in a good way (35.4% K% on the hump)

2) (2) Juan Soto WASH, OF, 23.6 – Perfect 3 for 3 on the bases keeps him just enough in that all category contributor category

3) (3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 24.4 – Sore groin has kept him out since the 10th, but he should return soon. K rate is a bit high at 37% and sprint speed is a bit low at 27.7 ft/sec, but it’s merely something to keep an eye on as he’s back to dominating in 10 games since returning from a torn ACL

4) (5) Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 23.4 – Been slowly ramping up baseball activities as he tries to return from a broken wrist at some point in June

5 (8) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 25.3 – Has a 1.093 OPS in his last 19 games. Underlying numbers were elite even while he was slumping early. Tack on 8 steals and there is no way around the fact that Tucker is the elite of the elite

6) (4) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 23.1 – Launch is back down to 4.5 degrees and he hasn’t been able to keep up last year’s insane breakout, but taking into the account the suppressed run environment, he’s still killing it with a 140 wRC+

7) (15) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 24.9 – 95.1 MPH EV trails only Stanton and Judge, and the plate approach is elite with a 18%/14.1% K%/BB%

Tier 2

8) (6) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 24.2 – Swing and miss is up with a 25.3% K%, launch angle is still down with a 7.2 degree launch, and BB% is still low with a 5.1% BB%. A next level breakout doesn’t seem to be in the cards this year, but he’ll still be a 5 cat stud.

9) (10) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 24.9 – Backing up his 2021 contact gains with a 13.9% K%

10) (11) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 21.2 – Power is looking good with a 90 MPH EV, and he’s running enough to keep him interesting in that category with 3 steals. I almost popped him over Bichette, but I couldn’t do it quite yet

11) (7) Trea Turner LAD, SS, 28.10 – 2021 homer breakout hasn’t held with only 1 homer, but a career high 50% HardHit% shows the power will likely come. Only reason for the small drop was because the youngsters (Yordan, Robert, Franco) don’t seem as risky after strong starts

12) (12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 29.6 – Still elite

13) (13) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 29.5 – Still elite

14) (17) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 30.8 – He’s healthy. Career high 24.7% barrel%

Shadow14 (Shadow13) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 27.9

15) (9) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 25.4 – .236 BABIP is the main thing keeping the numbers down (.698 OPS), although he hasn’t been hitting the ball very hard (87 MPH EV), and he’s been a bit slower (27.3 ft/sec sprint speed).

16) (14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 25.5 – Hit/power combo looks as good as ever

17) (16) Corbin Burnes MIL, RHP, 27.5 – Backing up his much improved control from last season with a 4.7% BB%

18) (18) Manny Machado SD, 3B, 29.9 – Here’s what I wrote for Machado in my off-season Top 1,000, “He’s been a bit inconsistent in his career, going back and forth between great years and solid years since 2017, so if the trend holds, he is in for one hell of a 2022.” … The trend is holding as Machado is going insane with a 1.029 OPS

Tier 3

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS AND TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED May 2022 TOP 316 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 4, 2022May 7, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 316 May 2022 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings

I’ve decided to be very strict about prospect eligibility. All prospects that have exceeded their rookie eligibility according to Baseball Reference and all currently in the majors are excluded. Here is the Top 316 May 2022 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS AND TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED APRIL 2022 TOP 414 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

1) Riley Greene DET, OF, 21.6 – Greene likely wouldn’t have been eligible to crack this list had he not gone down with a broken foot. But he did break his foot, and will have to settle for ascending to top dog status on prospect lists.

2) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 22.4 – Last 2 outings haven’t been great but he got BABIP’d to death with 0 homers and good K/BB numbers. 37.9%/5.7% K%/BB% in 21.2 IP at Triple-A shows the dominance

3) Adley Rutschman BAL, C, 24.2 – Started his rehab assignment at High-A from a strained right triceps and is unsurprisingly far too advanced for the level with a 0/2 K/BB and 230 wRC+ in 4 games.

4) Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 23.6 – 32.9% K% and 57 wRC+ in 19 games at Triple-A. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the struggles were related to the disappointment of not cracking the opening day roster.

5) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 21.7 – Doing everything at Double-A with 4 homers, 7 steals, and a 23.6%/13.5% K%/BB%

6) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 20.11 – Early season struggles are in the rear view mirror. A .239 BABIP is really the only thing keeping his numbers down at Double-A

7) Royce Lewis MIN, SS, 22.10 – Came back from the knee surgery a new man, putting up a 19.4%/16.1% K%/BB% in 21 games at Triple-A. Power and speed look great too

8) George Kirby SEA, RHP, 24.2 – Performing like his usual dominant self, and the secondaries look improved. He could take Brash’s spot in the rotation shortly

9) Daniel Espino CLE, RHP, 21.3 – Currently out with some knee tendinitis that doesn’t seem serious. Insane 51.5%/5.9% K%/BB% in 18.1 IP at Double-A.

10) Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 22.2 – Is not long for the minors with Dalbec struggling hard

11) Robert Hassell SDP, OF, 20.7 – Destroying High-A with a 15.4%/9.9% K%/BB%, 5 homers and 9 steals. Something to note, the minor leagues still clearly have the super happy fun balls, so these guys with high groundball rates might struggle to hit for this kind of power in the majors assuming MLB doesn’t switch back to the juiced balls in the future. Carroll and Hassell both have over 50% groundball rates

12) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS, 20.9 – Strikeout problems have disappeared completely at Double-A with a 19.1%/23.6% K%/BB% in 20 games

13) Jordan Walker STL, 3B, 19.10 – 22.9%/12% K%/BB% is huge to see in 18 games at Double-A considering his raw power and athleticism

14) Max Meyer MIA, RHP, 22.11 – One of the most impressive pitchers in the minors this year. 32.4%/5.9% K%/BB% with a 1.71 ERA in 26.1 IP at Triple-A. Still mostly fastball/slider, but the changeup is improving

15) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 21.1 – Game power is ticking up with 4 homers and a 44.1% GB% in 21 games at Double-A

16) Miguel Vargas LAD, 3B, 22.4 – Everything is translating to Triple-A

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on April 19, 2022April 22, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Updated April 2022 Top 413 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

It’s the first Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week over on the Patreon. I’m going over 400 deep and there will be quick notes for the vast majority of players (all of the players in the top 100 have a blurb). Here are the Updated April 2022 Top 413 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THIS ARTICLE AND A TON OF OTHER CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE SEASON, INCLUDING DYNASTY RUNDOWNS, MONTHLY TOP 400+ DYNASTY RANKINGS, MONTHY TOP 300+ PROSPECTS RANKINGS, AND MUCH MORE

Tier 1

1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 27.9 – Surface stats haven’t been great on both the hitting and pitching side, but nothing is setting off alarm bells under the hood as the homers, steals and strikeouts are still flowing. 4.1% BB% is really the only thing out of character, but that is almost certainly a small sample thing

2) Juan Soto WASH, OF, 23.5 – 1.013 OPS. .475 xwOBA. 24% BB%. 0 steals. Straight killer in non 5×5 BA leagues.

3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 24.3 – Scheduled to begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A and should be back to hitting bombs soon.

4) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 23.0 – 5 homers with a 22.2% Barrel%. Launch angle (6.5 degrees) and plate approach (27.5%/5.0% K%/BB%) haven’t been great, but he’s one of the best hitters in baseball no matter how you slice it.

5) Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 23.3 – Tatis is trying his hardest to get hurt again, tripping over a soccer ball and using his right arm to break his fall. You never try to break your fall by using your arm. I’ve learned that the hard way breaking my wrist twice playing sports as a kid. He needs to learn how to fall right. On the plus side, he’s mentioned he is ahead of schedule, so maybe we see him before July.

Tier 2

6) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 24.1 – It’s a slow start for Bichette with a .556 OPS, 3.7 degree launch anagle, 0 walks, and 0 steals in 10 games. Obviously don’t panic and he’ll be fine, but it doesn’t look like he is going to take another step with his plate approach and power this year if the early returns are any indication.

7) Trea Turner LAD, SS, 28.9 – Same old Trea with a .316 BA, 1 homer, and 2 steals

8) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 25.2 – Surface stats are trash (.530 OPS). Underlying numbers are class (.450 xwOBA).

9) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 25.3 – 9.3% BB% (6.9% in 2021). Walk rate was really the only flaw in his profile, so he could be maturing at the plate.

10) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 24.8 – Contact rates are even better than last year with a 8.1% K% and 21.4% whiff%. I already trusted he was elite, but this start is just locking it in. Ignore the .194 BA, and focus on the .342 xBA.

11) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 21.1 – Power/speed upside hasn’t popped yet with 0 homers, 3.5 degree launch angle and 1 steal, but real life upside is firing on all cylinders with a .381 BA and .431 xwOBA.

12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 29.6 – The baseball must be looking like a beach ball for Ramirez with a 5% K% and 1.386 OPS

13) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 29.5 – Hasn’t gotten hot yet, but is still putting in work with a .819 OPS

Shadow13) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 27.9

14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 25.5 – Continues to smash the ball with a 91.8 MPH EV and 12.3 degree launch angle. The perfect recipe for average and power.

15) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 24.9 – Socked 2 homers yesterday and now has a silly 100.6 MPH EV with a .551 xwOBA.

16) Corbin Burnes MIL, RHP, 27.5 – Control wasn’t great in his first start with 3 walks in 5 IP, causing some concern he might not be able to keep up the 2021 improvement in that area, but his 2nd start eased those concerns with 1 walk in 7 IP

17) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 30.8 – Hit on the hand with a pitch. X-Rays were negative and he will likely miss a few games. Let’s hope “miss a few games” doesn’t turn into an IL stint later in the week when the hand doesn’t heal as quickly as they hope.

18) Manny Machado SD, 3B, 29.9 – 3 steals and a .987 OPS in 12 games

19) Francisco Lindor NYM, SS, 28.4 – Surface stats and underlying numbers are both popping. He’s back.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on February 26, 2022February 26, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Predicting the 2023 Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects

This list doubles as a Bold Predictions write-up as I go on a 3 day fast, head off into the woods and climb a mountain to envision what the 2023 Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings will look like. Ages are as of April 2023.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THIS ARTICLE AND MUCH MORE, INCLUDING:
-OBP TOP 600 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-POINTS/6+ CATS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 600 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 1,000 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS (5×5 AVG-includes Top 500 Prospects Rankings and Top 100 FYPD Rankings-these will be the only rankings released for free on my site in March)
-ALL-IN-ONE SPREADSHEET WITH ALL THE RANKINGS
-POSITION BY POSITION TARGET ARTICLES
-2023 TOP 10 FYPD RANKINGS

1) Zac Veen COL, OF, 21.4 – Veen will ascend to universal elite prospect status as he steamrolls through High-A before closing out the year holding his own in Double-A. He showed some hit tool concerns in 2021, but it was his very first year of pro ball, thrown right into the fire in full season ball. He will improve the hit tool, the power will take a step forward, and the speed will still be there too. Tack on Coors Field, which juices up batting average first and foremost, and this is a game changing fantasy prospect.

2) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 21.11 – Volpe won’t put up quite the eye popping numbers in the upper levels of the minors as he did the lower levels of the minors, particularly his stolen base totals, but he will be knocking on the door of the bigs with above average to plus all category production. There won’t be many, or any, true holes in his profile and will be 1B to Veen’s 1A.

3) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.7 – My top underrated target from the 2019 draft class will finally have his full breakout in all its glory. He’ll quickly destroy High-A, before spending the majority of his time at Double-A, showing off more power than expected, to go along with a plus hit/speed combo.

4) Luis Matos SFG, OF, 21.2 – Matos will show an improved plate approach at High-A, which is the final step to put his hype into the stratosphere. The strikeout rate will rise a bit alongside the walk rates, but he’ll go 20/20 and will be a next level breakout.

5) CJ Abrams SD, SS, 22.6 – The knee injury will slow Abrams’ development and ETA down just enough to stay under the rookie threshold for 2023. The power explosion won’t come this year, but there will be an uptick in power, and the hit tool/speed combo will shine at Triple-A. He’ll get a taste of the majors in the 2nd half, where the exit velocity data won’t really pop, so some people may go off him, but I’ll hold strong.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on February 20, 2022February 23, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Points/6+Cats/OPS “Universal” Top 600 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

These Points/6+Cats/OPS “Universal” Top 600 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings are for leagues where speed is devalued and the value of good real life hitters who get on base and hit for power are juiced up. It still isn’t a perfect ranking (is there such thing as a perfect dynasty ranking?), but I believe it is helpful in a universal sense for certain points leagues and category leagues that add in a 6th or 7th hitting category like OPS or OBP (I have specific 5×5 OBP Rankings on my Patreon too). Here are the Points/6+Cats/OPS “Universal” Top 600 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS AND MUCH MORE, INCLUDING:
-OBP TOP 600 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 1,000 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS (5×5 AVG-includes Top 500 Prospects Rankings and Top 100 FYPD Rankings-these will be the only rankings released for free on my site in March)
-POSITION BY POSITION TARGET ARTICLES

Tier 1

1) Juan Soto WASH, OF, 23.5 – The underlying stats were elite all season, but it took until the 2nd half for the surface stats to catch up, slashing a ridiculous .348/.525/.639 in 72 games post break. He was my top pick in all non 5×5 AVG leagues last year, and with his OBP projected to outpace everyone by a large margin, I’m picking him over Ohtani in those leagues this year too. 5.8 degree launch angle is really the only thing you can quibble with. 2022 Projection: 108/33/103/.318/.460/.575/10

2) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 23.0 – Vlad raised his launch angle 4.8 degrees to 9.4 degrees and all hell broke loose as he demolished 48 homers. He maintained his near elite K% and also notched a career high 12.3% BB%. This was the breakout we were promised. 2022 Projection: 113/41/110/.298/.385/.590/3

3) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 27.9 –Tatis has a shoulder issue. Acuna tore up his knee. Soto and Vlad don’t steal a ton, and they sure as hell don’t pitch. Yea, Ohtani’s older than them, but we are talking about a 27 year old, not someone approaching the dreaded 3 – 0 (see Mike Trout). He’s changed the definition of “all category” and “across the board” production in fantasy baseball forever. 2022 Projection: 96/37/98/.261/.365/.541/22 – 8/3.48/1.15/150 in 125 IP

4) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 24.3 – Torn ACL could keep him out for at least a month into 2022, and it will be interesting to see how much he is willing to run when he returns. In the long run, missing a month shouldn’t impact his dynasty value too much, but when we are talking about the elite of the elite, every little bit counts. He would easily slot in at #2 without the injury. 2022 Projection: 99/35/85/.282/.389/.583/19

5) Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 23.3 – Tatis is foregoing surgery on his left shoulder, which after seeing the year Bellinger just had, I don’t blame him. It does add a layer a risk to an otherwise almost spotless fantasy profile. I say “almost” spotless, because his whiff% jumped up 6.8 percentage points to a pretty dangerous 34.8%. 2022 Projection: 102/39/99/.277/.366/.581/21

Tier 2

6) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 25.2 – Speaking of elite xwOBA’s, Tucker put up a .394 xwOBA which is in the top 6% of the league. He notched career bests in K% (15.9%), whiff% (20.3%), BB% (9.3%), launch angle (17.6 degrees), and Max EV (111.1 MPH). He also chipped in 14 steals. He’s elite. 2022 Projection: 93/33/101/.285/.350/.535/16

7) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 25.5 – Devers matured at the plate in 2021 with a career best 9.3% BB%, and he also brought his K% back down to 21.5% after jumping to 27% in 2020. He always hit the living crap out of the ball, and putting it all together led to a career best .389 xwOBA with 38 homers in 156 games. 2022 Projection: 95/37/106/.284/.358/.546/6

8) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 24.9 – The knees look A-OK as Yordan got back to raking after missing almost all of 2020. His 93.2 MPH EV was 8th best in the league and his .386 xwOBA is elite. He also had a 180 wRC+ in 16 playoff games. His sprint speed did drop to 26.2 ft/s (27 ft/s in 2019), so maybe the knees become an issue when he gets older, but it looks like clear sailing for the next several years. 2022 Projection: 94/35/108/.281/.363/.548/1

9) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 21.1 – I ranked Franco 14th overall on my 2021 Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranking, writing, “the floor is so high due to that innate hitting ability that he doesn’t have the normal risks associated with prospects.” Kelenic was my #2 overall prospect, but I ranked him 52nd on the dynasty list because he simply didn’t have that elite floor. And that is exactly how it played out in 2021 with Franco putting up a 12% K% en route to a solid MLB debut, slashing .288/.347/.463 with 7 homers and 2 steals in 70 games (he also knocked out 2 homers in 4 playoff games). The underlying skills are there for a homer/steal breakout as he notched a 28.5 ft/sec sprint speed, 88.2 MPH EV and 9.7 degree launch angle. The arrow is only pointing way up from here. 2022 Projection: 101/23/83/.302/.360/.484/11 Prime Projection: 116/31/111/.320/.392/.555/14

10) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 29.5 – Harper is also in the almost 30 club, but he just put up the best xwOBA in all of baseball with a .427 mark. He hasn’t really shown any signs of slowing down on the bases. There should be at least a few more years of elite production. 2022 Projection: 103/36/96/.281/.399/.578/14

11) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 30.8 – The injury gods struck Trout down again as a significant tear in his calf limited him to just 22 games. He was elite as ever in those 22 games with a .421 xwOBA, although I think it is worth pointing out his whiff% bloated all the way up to 27.5% (19.5% in 2020) and his launch angle tanked to 12.9 degrees (23.1 in 2020). Considering the small sample, I don’t think it means that much, but it’s worth noting. Along with entering his nursing home years, a lower body injury can’t help the odds he will get back to stealing bases, but all indications are that he will be elite everywhere else assuming he can stay healthy. 2022 Projection: 103/40/101/.293/.405/.620/8

12) Corbin Burnes MIL, RHP, 27.5 – Not only did Burnes not regress a single iota from his 2020 breakout, but he took it up another level with a league leading 30.4% K-BB%. The only other qualified pitchers even close to that mark were Scherzer and Cole. His BB% dropped 4.8 percentage points to 5.2%. He put up a 2.01 xERA which was bested only by deGrom’s 1.55 mark among starters, and deGrom is 33 years old coming off an elbow injury. Burnes is in a class of his own in dynasty. 2022 Projection: 15/2.71/0.98/267 in 195 IP

13) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 29.6 – Ramirez has an elite plate approach (13.7%/11.3% K%/BB%) with power (90 MPH EV with a 18.3 degree launch), and speed (28.2 ft/s sprint speed). The sports crime of being almost 30 is the only thing keeping Ramirez outside of the top 10, but in a redraft league (or if you are in all in mode), he has a real argument to be in the 1st overall mix. 2022 Projection: 105/34/94/.277/.368/.531/24

Shadow13) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 27.9 –Ohtani is so ridiculous that he is still an elite player even after taking away 9 wins and 156 K’s in 130.1 IP. This is where I would take him as a hitter only or in a weekly lineup league. 2022 Projection: 96/37/98/.261/.365/.541/22

14) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 24.1 – Bichette isn’t really in the same conversation as the guys ranked ahead of him when it comes to real life hitting, but he is a fantasy machine. He hit .298 with 29 homers and 25 steals. If you want to look at it glass half full, as good as he’s been, there is still upside left in the tank if he can raise his 5.8% BB% and 7.3 degree launch angle. 2022 Projection: 105/31/92/.294/.356/.510/20

15) Trea Turner LAD, SS, 28.9 – Turner is the older and faster version of Bichette. He’s not putting up insane xwOBA’s, but he’s a fantasy owner’s best friend, coming up just 2 homers shy of a .300/30/30 season. 2022 Projection: 110/27/84/.309/.361/.512/30

16) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 25.3 – Albies power took a step forward as he entered his mid 20’s, notching career highs in exit velocity (89.6 MPH) and launch angle (21.1 degrees), which led to his first 30 homer season. He also ran more on the bases, leading to his first 20 steal season, and considering how successful he’s been on the bases in his career (60 for 73), he should probably run even more. 2022 Projection: 100/29/93/.274/.333/.492/20

17) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 24.8 – Robert played in only 68 games, but the sheer dominance of those games shows he belongs in the land of the elite. His power exploded with 13 homers and a 91.2/96.3 MPH AVG/FB EV, and his contact rates improved dramatically with a 28.2% whiff% and 20.6% K% (41.5% and 32.2% in 2020). He did slow down with a 28 ft/s sprint speed (29.1 in 2020), but some of that is likely due to the torn hip flexor that kept him out. He is also still a very aggressive hitter with a 4.7% BB%, so while it might cap his upside in OBP leagues, all of the ingredients are there for him to have a legitimate shot at finishing as the #1 overall player in 5×5 leagues. 2022 Projection: 91/28/93/.278/.332/.508/18

18) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 29.5 – I originally ranked Betts 14th overall on my Top 100 Sneak Peek of the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings, but I’ve grown more concerned that his hip injury could be the catalyst for him to stop running as much in the 2nd act of his career. A bone spur in his right hip led to a down season in 122 games where his sprint speed tanked to 27.1 ft/s and he stole only 3 bases in 5 attempts in his final 58 games. I’m more confident in his bat being just fine, because even in a down year he was still damn good with 23 homers and a 131 wRC+ in 122 games. None of his underlying hitting numbers really dropped off from career norms at all. The fear that he will stop running as much even if he does regain his speed, like we see with Trout and Altuve, has him dropping a bit for me. 2022 Projection: 111/30/80/.288/.369/.519/13

19) Manny Machado SD, 3B, 29.9 – Machado’s underlying power numbers exploded this year, shattering career highs in exit velocity (93.1 MPH), Max EV (119.6 MPH) and HardHit% (52.2%). The gains didn’t really show up in his surface stats with 28 homers and a .836 OPS, but at the very least it is reminder of how elite Machado can be. He’s been a bit inconsistent in his career, going back and forth between great years and solid years since 2017, so if the trend holds, he is in for one hell of a 2022. 2022 Projection: 94/34/103/.283/.354/.522/10

20) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 27.4 – Alonso quietly took a huge step forward with his contact ability, notching career bests in K% (19.9% vs. 25.5% in 2020) and whiff% (24.9% vs. 30.4% in 2020). He also had a career best 91 MPH EV. And while it led to an excellent season (37 homers and a 133 wRC+ in 152 games), there is now potential for him to put up some truly historic seasons as he enters his peak years. I would buy high on Alonso. 2022 Projection: 94/45/112/.268/.357/.561/2

21) Matt Olson OAK, 1B, 28.0 – Olson made tremendous improvement to his K%, brining it all the way down to 16.8% (31.4% in 2020), and he basically maintained it for the entire season. Hard not to think that won’t regress at least a little in 2022, but power and patience is what you are really buying here anyway. Truly keeping up that hit tool improvement will be the cherry on top. 2022 Projection: 93/38/106/.262/.363/.541/2

Tier 3

22) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 21.3 – Rodriguez did it all in 2021. He brought his BB% up to 12.6% (6.8% in 2019), he stole 21 bases (in 26 attempts) in just 74 games, and he obliterated the upper levels of the minors, slashing .362/.461/.546 with 7 homers, 16 steals, and a 37/29 K/BB in 46 games at Double-A. He’s in a two man race with Bobby Witt for the #1 overall prospect in baseball. 2022 Projection:59/17/63/.277/.342/.472/6 Prime Projection: 98/35/110/.291/.378/.575/11

23) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 29.11 – Judge once against led all of baseball with a 95.8 MPH exit velocity. It’s only a matter of staying healthy for Judge as he played in 148 games this season and ripped 39 homers with 148 wRC+. 2022 Projection: 93/40/97/.268/.364/.550/5

24) Bobby Witt Jr. KC, SS, 21.9 – Bobby Witt showed out so much in Spring Training that there were whispers he would make the opening day roster, and he probably should have because Double-A and Triple-A proved no match for him. He slashed .290/.361/.575 with 33 homers, 29 steals, and a 23.2%/9.0% K%/BB% in 123 games. It will be ridiculous if he doesn’t break camp with the team in 2022. 2022 Projection: 78/26/84/.260/.329/.472/18 Prime Projection: 94/33/101/.277/.351/.541/23

25) Jacob deGrom NYM, RHP, 33.9 – You almost have to do a double take when looking at deGrom’s season numbers. 1.08 ERA? 0.55 WHIP? 45.1%/3.4% K%/BB%? Give me a second to pick my jaw up off the ground. Of course, in this flawed universe we live in, there always has to be a yang to the yin. He put up those numbers in only 92 IP because of a partial tear in the UCL of his elbow. He already started to throw side sessions at the end of September, so the hope is that he will be 100% for 2022, but it certainly adds a healthy dose of injury risk. 2022 Projection: 13/2.48/0.93/258 in 175 IP

26) Gerrit Cole NYY, RHP, 31.7 – Cole become the face of the spider tack scandal, and it was warranted as his numbers definitely took a hit, putting up a 2.68 ERA pre break and a 4.14 ERA post break. His spin rates did a recover a bit by the end of the season, but not to pre crackdown levels. There is good news for 2022 though, as it was recently announced that the Arizona Fall League has been experimenting with a pre tacked ball, which seems like a good sign MLB will implement them for the 2022 season. I’m betting on the spider tack guys getting their mojo back in 2022. 2022 Projection: 15/3.10/1.03/261 in 195 IP

27) Brandon Woodruff MIL, RHP, 29.2 – Burnes may have overshadowed the year Woodruff just had, because he was dominant with a pitching line of 2.56/0.97/211/43 in 179.1 IP. It was the most innings he’s thrown in his career, and he did seem a tire as the season went on as his sinker velocity slowly declined about 1 MPH from start to finish. He had a 2.06 ERA pre break and a 3.41 ERA post break. It does make me wonder, with all these pitchers having huge jumps in innings pitched after the shortened 2020 season, if there will be some type of hangover effect in 2022. 2022 Projection: 14/3.33/1.06/218 in 185 IP

28) Walker Buehler LAD, RHP, 27.8 – Buehler had a spectacular season with a pitching line of 2.47/0.97/212/52 in 207 IP, but there were some red flags. He lost 1.5 MPH on his fastball with a career worst 95.3 MPH mark and he also put up a career worst 26% K%. I’m not downgrading him much because of it, but it is something in the back of my mind. 2022 Projection: 15/3.39/1.02/202 in 190 IP

29) Freddie Freeman FRA, 1B, 32.6 – Freeman ain’t young but his level of dominance year in and year out deserves at least this ranking. His .411 xwOBA ranked 7th in the league and he has been at the top of those leaderboards since Statcast came on the scene in 2015. 2022 Projection: 103/32/106/.303/.395/.522/6

30) Brandon Lowe TB, OF/2B, 27.9 – Lowe went bonkos in the 2nd half, slashing .289/.376/.638 with 26 homers and 3 steals in 80 games (.689 OPS in first 69 games). He brought his K% all the way down to 21.1% in 67 games post break (32.2% in 82 games post-break). The power was never in question, so if those K% gains are real, it takes Lowe to the next level. 2022 Projection: 89/36/95/.263/.355/.519/6

Tier 4

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on February 16, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: OBP Top 600 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

These rankings are made for 5×5 OBP leagues. My “Universal” Rankings will be out on the Patreon this week too where good real life hitters get boosted (power and walks), speed is heavily devalued, and pitchers don’t get juiced up. Here is the OBP Top 600 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS AND MUCH MORE, INCLUDING EARLY ACCESS TO THE TOP 1,000 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS (INCLUDES TOP 500 PROSPECTS RANKINGS AND TOP 100 FYPD RANKINGS), EXLUSIVE ACCESS TO POSITION BY POSITION TARGET ARTICLES, “UNIVERSAL” DYNASTY RANKINGS, 2023 FYPD RANKINGS, ETC …

Tier 1

1) Juan Soto WASH, OF, 23.5 – The underlying stats were elite all season, but it took until the 2nd half for the surface stats to catch up, slashing a ridiculous .348/.525/.639 in 72 games post break. He was my top pick in all non 5×5 AVG leagues last year (I will be updating those “Universal Rankings” this off-season too), and with his OBP projected to outpace everyone by a large margin, I’m picking him over Ohtani in those leagues this year too. 5.8 degree launch angle is really the only thing you can quibble with. 2022 Projection: 108/33/103/.318/.460/.575/10

2) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 27.9 –Tatis has a shoulder issue. Acuna tore up his knee. Soto and Vlad don’t steal a ton, and they sure as hell don’t pitch. Yea, Ohtani’s older than them, but we are talking about a 27 year old, not someone approaching the dreaded 3 – 0 (see Mike Trout). He’s changed the definition of “all category” and “across the board” production in fantasy baseball forever. 2022 Projection: 96/37/98/.261/.365/.541/22 – 8/3.48/1.15/150 in 125 IP

3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 24.3 – Torn ACL could keep him out for at least a month into 2022, and it will be interesting to see how much he is willing to run when he returns. In the long run, missing a month shouldn’t impact his dynasty value too much, but when we are talking about the elite of the elite, every little bit counts. He would easily slot in at #2 without the injury. 2022 Projection: 99/35/85/.282/.389/.583/19

4) Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 23.3 – Tatis is foregoing surgery on his left shoulder, which after seeing the year Bellinger just had, I don’t blame him. It does add a layer a risk to an otherwise almost spotless fantasy profile. I say “almost” spotless, because his whiff% jumped up 6.8 percentage points to a pretty dangerous 34.8%. 2022 Projection: 102/39/99/.277/.366/.581/21

5) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 23.0 – Vlad raised his launch angle 4.8 degrees to 9.4 degrees and all hell broke loose as he demolished 48 homers. He maintained his near elite K% and also notched a career high 12.3% BB%. This was the breakout we were promised. 2022 Projection: 113/41/110/.298/.385/.590/3

Tier 2

6) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 29.5 – Harper is also in the almost 30 club, but he just put up the best xwOBA in all of baseball with a .427 mark. He hasn’t really shown any signs of slowing down on the bases. There should be at least a few more years of elite production. 2022 Projection: 103/36/96/.281/.399/.578/14

7) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 24.1 – Bichette isn’t really in the same conversation as the guys ranked ahead of him when it comes to real life hitting, but he is a fantasy machine. He hit .298 with 29 homers and 25 steals. If you want to look at it glass half full, as good as he’s been, there is still upside left in the tank if he can raise his 5.8% BB% and 7.3 degree launch angle. 2022 Projection: 105/31/92/.294/.356/.510/20

8) Trea Turner LAD, SS, 28.9 – Turner is the older and faster version of Bichette. He’s not putting up insane xwOBA’s, but he’s a fantasy owner’s best friend, coming up just 2 homers shy of a .300/30/30 season. 2022 Projection: 110/27/84/.309/.361/.512/30

9) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 25.2 – Speaking of elite xwOBA’s, Tucker put up a .394 xwOBA which is in the top 6% of the league. He notched career bests in K% (15.9%), whiff% (20.3%), BB% (9.3%), launch angle (17.6 degrees), and Max EV (111.1 MPH). He also chipped in 14 steals. He’s elite. 2022 Projection: 93/33/101/.285/.350/.535/16

10) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 21.1 – I ranked Franco 14th overall on my 2021 Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranking, writing, “the floor is so high due to that innate hitting ability that he doesn’t have the normal risks associated with prospects.” Kelenic was my #2 overall prospect, but I ranked him 52nd on the dynasty list because he simply didn’t have that elite floor. And that is exactly how it played out in 2021 with Franco putting up a 12% K% en route to a solid MLB debut, slashing .288/.347/.463 with 7 homers and 2 steals in 70 games (he also knocked out 2 homers in 4 playoff games). The underlying skills are there for a homer/steal breakout as he notched a 28.5 ft/sec sprint speed, 88.2 MPH EV and 9.7 degree launch angle. The arrow is only pointing way up from here. 2022 Projection: 101/23/83/.302/.360/.484/11 Prime Projection: 116/31/111/.320/.392/.555/14

11) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 29.6 – Ramirez has an elite plate approach (13.7%/11.3% K%/BB%) with power (90 MPH EV with a 18.3 degree launch), and speed (28.2 ft/s sprint speed). The sports crime of being almost 30 is the only thing keeping Ramirez outside of the top 10, but in a redraft league (or if you are in all in mode), he has a real argument to be in the 1st overall mix. 2022 Projection: 105/34/94/.277/.368/.531/24

Shadow11) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 27.9 –Ohtani is so ridiculous that he is still an elite player even after taking away 9 wins and 156 K’s in 130.1 IP. This is where I would take him as a hitter only or in a weekly lineup league. 2022 Projection: 96/37/98/.261/.365/.541/22

12) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 30.8 – The injury gods struck Trout down again as a significant tear in his calf limited him to just 22 games. He was elite as ever in those 22 games with a .421 xwOBA, although I think it is worth pointing out his whiff% bloated all the way up to 27.5% (19.5% in 2020) and his launch angle tanked to 12.9 degrees (23.1 in 2020). Considering the small sample, I don’t think it means that much, but it’s worth noting. Along with entering his nursing home years, a lower body injury can’t help the odds he will get back to stealing bases, but all indications are that he will be elite everywhere else assuming he can stay healthy. 2022 Projection: 103/40/101/.293/.405/.620/8

13) Corbin Burnes MIL, RHP, 27.5 – Not only did Burnes not regress a single iota from his 2020 breakout, but he took it up another level with a league leading 30.4% K-BB%. The only other qualified pitchers even close to that mark were Scherzer and Cole. His BB% dropped 4.8 percentage points to 5.2%. He put up a 2.01 xERA which was bested only by deGrom’s 1.55 mark among starters, and deGrom is 33 years old coming off an elbow injury. Burnes is in a class of his own in dynasty. 2022 Projection: 15/2.71/0.98/267 in 195 IP

14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 25.5 – Devers matured at the plate in 2021 with a career best 9.3% BB%, and he also brought his K% back down to 21.5% after jumping to 27% in 2020. He always hit the living crap out of the ball, and putting it all together led to a career best .389 xwOBA with 38 homers in 156 games. 2022 Projection: 95/37/106/.284/.358/.546/6

15) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 24.9 – The knees look A-OK as Yordan got back to raking after missing almost all of 2020. His 93.2 MPH EV was 8th best in the league and his .386 xwOBA is elite. He also had a 180 wRC+ in 16 playoff games. His sprint speed did drop to 26.2 ft/s (27 ft/s in 2019), so maybe the knees become an issue when he gets older, but it looks like clear sailing for the next several years. 2022 Projection: 94/35/108/.281/.363/.548/1

16) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 29.5 – A bone spur in Betts’ right hip led to a down season in 122 games where his sprint speed tanked to 27.1 ft/s and he stole only 3 bases in 5 attempts in his final 58 games. I’m more confident in his bat being just fine, because even in a down year he was still damn good with 23 homers and a 131 wRC+ in 122 games. None of his underlying hitting numbers really dropped off from career norms at all. The fear that he will stop running as much even if he does regain his speed, like we see with Trout and Altuve, has him dropping a bit for me. 2022 Projection: 111/30/80/.288/.369/.519/13

17) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 25.3 – Albies power took a step forward as he entered his mid 20’s, notching career highs in exit velocity (89.6 MPH) and launch angle (21.1 degrees), which led to his first 30 homer season. He also ran more on the bases, leading to his first 20 steal season, and considering how successful he’s been on the bases in his career (60 for 73), he should probably run even more. 2022 Projection: 100/29/93/.274/.333/.492/20

18) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 24.8 – Robert played in only 68 games, but the sheer dominance of those games shows he belongs in the land of the elite. His power exploded with 13 homers and a 91.2/96.3 MPH AVG/FB EV, and his contact rates improved dramatically with a 28.2% whiff% and 20.6% K% (41.5% and 32.2% in 2020). He did slow down with a 28 ft/s sprint speed (29.1 in 2020), but some of that is likely due to the torn hip flexor that kept him out. He is also still a very aggressive hitter with a 4.7% BB%, so while it might cap his upside in OBP leagues, all of the ingredients are there for him to have a legitimate shot at finishing as the #1 overall player in 5×5 leagues. 2022 Projection: 91/28/93/.278/.332/.508/18

Tier 3

20) Bobby Witt Jr. KC, SS, 21.9 – Bobby Witt showed out so much in Spring Training that there were whispers he would make the opening day roster, and he probably should have because Double-A and Triple-A proved no match for him. He slashed .290/.361/.575 with 33 homers, 29 steals, and a 23.2%/9.0% K%/BB% in 123 games. It will be ridiculous if he doesn’t break camp with the team in 2022. 2022 Projection: 78/26/84/.260/.329/.472/18 Prime Projection: 94/33/101/.277/.351/.541/23

21) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 21.3 – Rodriguez did it all in 2021. He brought his BB% up to 12.6% (6.8% in 2019), he stole 21 bases (in 26 attempts) in just 74 games, and he obliterated the upper levels of the minors, slashing .362/.461/.546 with 7 homers, 16 steals, and a 37/29 K/BB in 46 games at Double-A. He’s in a two man race with Bobby Witt for the #1 overall prospect in baseball. 2022 Projection:59/17/63/.277/.342/.472/6 Prime Projection: 98/35/110/.291/.378/.575/11

22) Jacob deGrom NYM, RHP, 33.9 – You almost have to do a double take when looking at deGrom’s season numbers. 1.08 ERA? 0.55 WHIP? 45.1%/3.4% K%/BB%? Give me a second to pick my jaw up off the ground. Of course, in this flawed universe we live in, there always has to be a yang to the yin. He put up those numbers in only 92 IP because of a partial tear in the UCL of his elbow. He already started to throw side sessions at the end of September, so the hope is that he will be 100% for 2022, but it certainly adds a healthy dose of injury risk. 2022 Projection: 13/2.48/0.93/258 in 175 IP

23) Gerrit Cole NYY, RHP, 31.7 – Cole become the face of the spider tack scandal, and it was warranted as his numbers definitely took a hit, putting up a 2.68 ERA pre break and a 4.14 ERA post break. His spin rates did a recover a bit by the end of the season, but not to pre crackdown levels. There is good news for 2022 though, as it was recently announced that the Arizona Fall League has been experimenting with a pre tacked ball, which seems like a good sign MLB will implement them for the 2022 season. I’m betting on the spider tack guys getting their mojo back in 2022. 2022 Projection: 15/3.10/1.03/261 in 195 IP

24) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 27.4 – Alonso quietly took a huge step forward with his contact ability, notching career bests in K% (19.9% vs. 25.5% in 2020) and whiff% (24.9% vs. 30.4% in 2020). He also had a career best 91 MPH EV. And while it led to an excellent season (37 homers and a 133 wRC+ in 152 games), there is now potential for him to put up some truly historic seasons as he enters his peak years. I would buy high on Alonso. 2022 Projection: 94/45/112/.268/.357/.561/2

25) Matt Olson OAK, 1B, 28.0 – Olson made tremendous improvement to his K%, brining it all the way down to 16.8% (31.4% in 2020), and he basically maintained it for the entire season. Hard not to think that won’t regress at least a little in 2022, but power and patience is what you are really buying here anyway. Truly keeping up that hit tool improvement will be the cherry on top. 2022 Projection: 93/38/106/.262/.363/.541/2

26) Brandon Woodruff MIL, RHP, 29.2 – Burnes may have overshadowed the year Woodruff just had, because he was dominant with a pitching line of 2.56/0.97/211/43 in 179.1 IP. It was the most innings he’s thrown in his career, and he did seem a tire as the season went on as his sinker velocity slowly declined about 1 MPH from start to finish. He had a 2.06 ERA pre break and a 3.41 ERA post break. It does make me wonder, with all these pitchers having huge jumps in innings pitched after the shortened 2020 season, if there will be some type of hangover effect in 2022. 2022 Projection: 14/3.33/1.06/218 in 185 IP

27) Walker Buehler LAD, RHP, 27.8 – Buehler had a spectacular season with a pitching line of 2.47/0.97/212/52 in 207 IP, but there were some red flags. He lost 1.5 MPH on his fastball with a career worst 95.3 MPH mark and he also put up a career worst 26% K%. I’m not downgrading him much because of it, but it is something in the back of my mind. 2022 Projection: 15/3.39/1.02/202 in 190 IP

28) Cedric Mullins BAL, OF, 27.6 – Welcome to the 30/30 club, Cedric Mullins. He became only the 43rd player to go 30/30, and only the 9th lefty ever. Speaking of being a lefty, Mullins made the ultimate adjustment this season and dropped his righthanded swing. It worked liked gangbusters as he had by far his best season vs. righties (.452 OPS vs. righties in 2018/.243 in 2019/.502 in 202/.788 in 2021). Now the question is, can he do it again? He did outperform his underlying numbers a bit with a .372 wOBA vs. a .343 xwOBA. His 92.4 MPH FB/LD exit velocity also doesn’t leave much room for error. I think the more reasonable expectation for 2022 is a 20/20 type year rather than 30/30. 2022 Projection: 88/25/68/.277/.340/.460/25

29) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 29.11 – Judge once against led all of baseball with a 95.8 MPH exit velocity. It’s only a matter of staying healthy for Judge as he played in 148 games this season and ripped 39 homers with 148 wRC+. 2022 Projection: 93/40/97/.268/.364/.550/5

30) Francisco Lindor NYM, SS, 28.4 – Baseball players are human beings. When you’ve spent your entire career, from the time you were 17 years old, with one organization, it is going to take time to adjust to a new city, new fans, new teammates, coaches, expectations etc … And that goes doubly when that new city is New York. And even if you don’t buy into all that mumbo jumbo, his underlying numbers in 2021 were almost exactly in line with career norms. He just got a bit unlucky this year. One thing slightly outside of his career norms was that he swung and missed at a career worst rate (23.2% whiff%), but he offset that with a career best 11.1% BB%. Lindor is an easy buy this off-season. 2022 Projection: 93/29/85/.267/.344/.482/17

31) Trevor Story FRA, SS, 29.4 – Story had a slow start to the season but he was back to raking by the end of it, slashing .269/.358/.552 with 12 homers, 3 steals, and a 52/22 K/BB in his final 55 games. Nothing in his underlying numbers are setting off alarm bells, but the big question is how much he should be downgraded leaving Coors. It seems that Coors juices up batting average first and foremost, so I wouldn’t expect a huge drop in homers and steals, but the hits and BA are coming down. His down 2021 might have inadvertently shown us who he will be over the next few seasons. 2022 Projection: 82/28/91/.250/.333/.483/18

32) Brandon Lowe TB, OF/2B, 27.9 – Lowe went bonkos in the 2nd half, slashing .289/.376/.638 with 26 homers and 3 steals in 80 games (.689 OPS in first 69 games). He brought his K% all the way down to 21.1% in 67 games post break (32.2% in 82 games post-break). The power was never in question, so if those K% gains are real, it takes Lowe to the next level. 2022 Projection: 89/36/95/.263/.355/.519/6

Tier 4

33) Tyler O’Neill STL, OF, 26.9 – Who needs a good plate approach anyway? O’Neill is just a power/speed glutton, smashing 34 homers with a 93 MPH EV, and stealing 15 bags with a 29.7 ft/s sprint speed. There is tons of risk with a 31.3%/7.1% K%/BB% and 34.7% whiff%, but you can’t rule out improvement there with only 892 MLB AB under his belt. The BA is certainly coming down, but the power/speed combo is elite, and I’m willing to take on the risk for that upside 2022 Projection: 85/32/86/.263/.337/.510/13

34) Jarred Kelenic SEA, OF, 22.8 – After a disastrous start to his MLB debut (.360 OPS after his first 30 games), Kelenic slowly got better as the season went along and finished strong in September, slashing .248/.331/.524 with 7 homers, 3 steals, and a 29/12 K/BB in 29 games. He doesn’t have major swing and miss issues with a 26.9% whiff%, and while he struggled against breaking and offspeed pitches, he got much better vs. them as the season progressed. Kelenic was a buy low for me the second he started struggling in the majors, and while his strong finish probably raised the price, there is a still a buying opportunity here. 2022 Projection:76/24/79/.252/.326/.449/10 Prime Projection: 89/28/93/.268/.343/.481/14

35) Freddy Peralta MIL, RHP, 25.10 – A minor shoulder strain and subsequent drop off in production in August and September is the only blemish on an otherwise outstanding season. Even after the shoulder strain his stuff was still excellent and his K/BB numbers were still great, so I wouldn’t be worried. Peralta throws 4 legitimately plus pitches (fastball, slider, curve, change) which led to a 33.6% K% and 2.81 ERA in 144.1 IP. His control wasn’t bad (9.7% BB%), and I wouldn’t be surprised if he keeps improving in that area. Peralta has league winning upside. 2022 Projection: 11/3.22/1.09/235 in 170 IP

36) Freddie Freeman FRA, 1B, 32.6 – Freeman ain’t young but his level of dominance year in and year out deserves at least this ranking. His .411 xwOBA ranked 7th in the league and he has been at the top of those leaderboards since Statcast came on the scene in 2015. 2022 Projection: 103/32/106/.303/.395/.522/6

37) Julio Urias LAD, LHP, 25.8 – I’ve been beating the don’t forget about Urias drum for a few years now and have consistently been the high man on him. It keeps paying off. Urias went next level breakout in 2021 with a pitching line of 2.96/1.02/195/38 in 185.2 IP. He has plus control (5.1% BB%-Top 6% of the league) of a 3 pitch mix that consistently induces weak contact (86 MPH EV against-Top 6% of the league). 2022 Projection: 14/3.42/1.09/193 in 180 IP

38) Trevor Rogers MIA, LHP, 24.5 – Rogers added 0.9 MPH to the fastball (94.5 MPH) and improved his control, leading to the pitch becoming one of the 10 most valuable 4 seamers in the game. The changeup placed 24th best. The slider wasn’t as good, but it was a good enough 3rd pitch with a 40.8% whiff% to put Rogers into elite territory. He’s an ace 2022 Projection: 10/3.31/1.18/196 in 165 IP

39) Teoscar Hernandez TOR, OF, 29.6 – Hernandez drastically improved his K% from 30.4% in 2020 to 24.9% in 2021, and he continued to mash the ball en route to another beastly season, slashing .296/.346/.524 with 32 homers and 12 steals in 143 games. The improved contact numbers give faith he will continue to get to all of his power and speed. 2022 Projection: 88/34/104/.267/.330/.515/11

40) Marcus Semien TEX, SS/2B 31.6 – Saying Semien “bounced back” from a down 2020 would be an understatement. He went insane in 2021 with 45 homer and 15 steals. He notched a career high 89.7 MPH EV, 109.5 MPH Max EV, and 20.3 degree launch angle. The underlying numbers do provide some caution as his .368 wOBA was much better than his .329 xwOBA, but Semien is a fantasy stud. Going from Toronto to Texas is a ballpark and lineup downgrade, but he’s put up big numbers in Oakland too which is also a pitcher’s park, so I wouldn’t downgrade him too much based on the move. 2022 Projection: 92/30/86/.252/.330/.491/13

41) Aaron Nola PHI, RHP, 28.10 – Nola finished with an unsightly 4.63 ERA, but everything in his underlying numbers say he’s the same ace he’s always been. He had a sparkling 223/39 K/BB in 180.2 IP and his xERA was 3.39 (3.37 xFIP). I doubt anyone will be willing to sell low on him, but if you can even get a small discount it is worth pouncing on. 2022 Projection: 14/3.46/1.15/225 in 190 IP

42) Shane Bieber CLE, RHP, 26.10 – Bieber returned from a strained shoulder at the end of the year and made two 3 inning starts where his velocity was down. It is very possible he was just taking it easy, so I don’t want to panic, but it would have been nice to see his velocity return. In the 96.2 innings he did pitch, he wasn’t able to maintain anything close to his insane 2020, but he was still putting up elite numbers with a 3.17 ERA and 33.1% K%. I would wait until we see him back to 100% during Spring Training before clearing out the farm for him. He is a hold. 2022 Projection: 12/3.35/1.10/226 in 170 IP

43) Lucas Giolito CHW, RHP, 27.9 – Giolito had a rough April with a 5.68 ERA but he pitched like his normal dominant self after that. His K% did drop to a 3 year low to 28% (33.7% in 2020), but his BB% dropped with it to 7.1% (9.7% in 2020). 2022 Projection: 13/3.56/1.13/221 in 183 IP

44) Xander Bogaerts BOS, SS, 29.6 – After a dominant first half (.930 OPS pre break), Bogaerts fell off hard in the 2nd half (.761 OPS post break). He ended up having his usual rock steady season with a 130 wRC+. 2022 Projection: 96/26/87/.292/.366/.498/8

45) Corey Seager TEX, SS, 27.11 – A fractured hand after getting hit by a pitch limited Seager to 95 games. He couldn’t fully maintain his 2020 power breakout, but he still showed the power improvements were real with a career high 115.3 Max EV and a 49.3% HardHit% which was the 2nd best mark of his career (55.9% in 2020). The overall offensive numbers were just as dominant as 2020 with a 147 wRC+ (150 wRC+ in 2020). His ascent as an elite hitter in 2020 was not a mirage. 2022 Projection: 91/26/92/.301/.380/.518/1

46) Alex Bregman HOU, 3B, 28.0 – Bregman underwent wrist surgery on Nov. 8th. The wrist issue can maybe explain the down power season, but his power was down in 2020 as well and he was never a huge exit velocity guy to begin with. He also completely stopped running over the past two seasons, with his sprint speed dropping to a career low 25.6 ft/sec which was almost surely due to a quad injury that kept him out for two months. On the plus side, his plate approach is elite (13.3%/11% K%/BB%), and he gets the ball in the air (15.9 degree launch angle). It’s hard to expect the stolen bases to come back, but a power resurgence is at least still in the cards. 2022 Projection: 92/26/89/.277/.370/.482/5

47) Jesse Winker CIN, OF, 28.7 – An intercoastal strain essentially ended Winker’s season in mid August after 110 games. He was elite in those 110 games though with 24 homers, a 15.5%/10.9% K%/BB% and a .388 xwOBA (Top 7% of the league). It proves his 2020 breakout was 100% real. He’s had some injury issues in his career, but Winker is an elite bat that could probably be had for a non elite price. 2022 Projection: 94/27/86/.282/.375/.507/1

48) Spencer Torkelson DET, 3B/1B, 22.7 – Tork is a 6’1”, 220 pound bull with a swing geared towards launching bombs. And that is all he’s done in his baseball career, crushing 25 homers in 55 games as a freshman in the Pac 12, ripping 23 homers as a sophomore, and now smashing 30 bombs in his pro debut over 121 games split pretty evenly across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). He does all this with an advanced plate approach (13% BB% at Triple-A) and without any major strikeout worries (20.3% K% at Triple-A). 2022 Projection: 72/27/74/.252/.337/.485/3 Prime Projection: 96/35/105/.275/.372/.533/3

49) Zack Wheeler PHI, RHP, 31.10 – Wheeler had a career year with a pitching line of 2.78/1.01/247/46 in 213.1 IP. His 29.1% K% was higher than his 26.5% whiff%, so I would expect some regression in that area, but both marks were easily career bests, so there was definitely real improvement. He led the league in exit velocity against at 84.6 MPH. 2022 Projection: 14/3.21/1.09/220 in 200 IP

50) George Springer TOR, OF, 32.6 – Missed most the first half with an oblique and quad injury, playing in only 20 games with a .726 OPS pre-break. He exploded post break, slashing .286/.366/.599 with 17 homers, 3 steals, and a 56/25 K/BB in 58 games. He posted a career best 15.4% barrel% and 116.4 Max EV. His sprint speed was as fast ever, showing there weren’t any lingering effects from the injuries. 2022 Projection: 103/37/88/.263/.350/.545/6

51) Sandy Alcantara MIA, RHP, 26.7 – Alcantara already possessed one of the best sinkers in the game, but he took it up a notch this year, adding 1.4 MPH to the pitch (97.6 MPH) and finished with the 3rd most valuable sinker on the year. He improved both his control and swing and miss ability (22.7%/8.7% K%/BB% in 2020 vs. 24%/6% in 2021). You also shouldn’t underestimate innings pitched, as he threw 205.2 IP this year and 197.1 IP in 2019. He might not have elite bat missing ability, but he keeps the ball on the ground (4.5 degree launch angle) and with his filthy stuff there can definitely be further improvement coming. 2022 Projection: 12/3.39/1.14/193 in 195 IP

52) Will Smith LAD, C, 27.0 – Smith went ballistic post all star break, smashing 15 homers with a .936 OPS in 56 games. He was good pre break too (.800 OPS in 74 games). He has an advanced plate approach (20.2%/11/6% K%/BB%) with an above average exit velocity (90.1 MPH) and a high launch angle (19.4 degrees). 2022 Projection: 75/26/81/.267/.370/.500/2

53) Randy Arozarena TB, OF, 27.1 – Arozarena went 20/20 on the dot in 2021, but the underlying numbers are a mixed bag. He had a below average .302 xwOBA (.350 wOBA), 32.4% whiff%, and 7.6 degree launch angle. On the other hand, he had an above average exit velocity (89.9 MPH), BB% (9.3%) and sprint speed (28.8 ft/sec). If you can hit it hard, get on base, and run fast, good things generally happen. I’m more excited for the things he can do well than scared off by the things he doesn’t. 2022 Projection: 88/22/75/.268/.347/.462/17

54) Tim Anderson CHW, SS, 28.9 – Don’t worry about Anderson’s lack of plate approach, he’s been barely walking and putting up strong numbers since 2014. It does look like he may trade some speed for more power as he enters his late 20’s as he put up a career best 89.6 MPH EV and career worst 28 ft/sec sprint speed. 2022 Projection: 92/22/75/.293/.328/.470/17

55) Byron Buxton MIN, OF, 28.3 – With a talent like this, give me all the injury risk. Buxton had a career best 92.5 MPH exit velocity with a max EV that was in the top 4% of the league (115.6 MPH). His 30 ft/s sprint speed is in the top 1% of the league. He hit 19 homers with 9 steals and a 1.005 OPS in 61 games this year. He can legitimately finish as the top fantasy player in baseball, and while the injury risk is very real, I think people are discounting him far too much for it. 2022 Projection: 89/28/81/.271/.326/.518/19

56) Austin Riley ATL, 3B, 25.0 – Seeds of a breakout were already starting to show in 2020 beneath his mediocre surface stats, and that breakout blossomed hardcore in 2021, slashing .303/.367/.531 with 33 homers and a 25.4%/7.9% K%/BB%. He keeps improving his hit tool with a career best 28.3% whiff% and he made major strides against offspeed pitches with a .369 xwOBA against them (.223 in 2020). He’s not a real .300 hitter, but there is real juice in his bat. 2022 Projection: 85/31/98/.275/.340/.511/0

57) Starling Marte NYM, OF, 33.6 – It’s hard for dynasty owners to buy into a player going into his mid 30’s, and that goes doubly for speed first players, but the year Marte just had is going to put that age aversion to the test. He tied his career high with 47 steals and put up a career best by far 8.2% BB%. He has slowed down a bit these past few seasons, but a 28.4 ft/s sprint speed is still plenty fast. If you have the cojones to do it, now could be the ideal time to sell, but I own him in a 12 teamer at $35 and I don’t think I have the nerve to do it. I’m rolling with him for 2022. 2022 Projection: 87/15/71/.286/.352/.450/33

58) Ketel Marte ARI, 2B/OF, 28.6 – Playing in only 90 games due to two hamstring injuries (one to each hamstring) has camouflaged how good of a season Marte had. He’s never hit the ball harder with an excellent 91.1/95.1 MPH AVG/FB EV, and it led to a near elite .370 xwOBA. The hamstring injuries slowed him down, putting up a career worst 26.7 ft/sec sprint speed, but that should bounce back with full health. This year proved that Marte is closer to being the guy who had a great 2019, rather than the player who had a down 2020. You can go after him with confidence this off-season. 2022 Projection: 93/24/90/.298/.359/.507/7

59) Eloy Jimenez CHW, OF, 25.5 – A torn pectoral tendon limited Eloy to 55 games, and he was pretty mediocre in those games with a .740 OPS and 101 wRC+, but none of his underlying numbers were too far off from career norms to cause major concern. There is still room for improvement with his launch angle (8.4 degrees) and BB% (6.9%), but he’s going to mash even if those numbers don’t get significantly better. 2022 Projection: 84/32/103/.267/.327/.510/0

60) Nick Castellanos CIN, OF, 30.1 – Great American Ballpark is an insanely great ballpark for homers, and Castellanos immediately started ripping dingers when he got there with 14 homers in 60 games in 2020 and 34 homers in 138 games in 2021. His underlying numbers have been near elite for 6 years now, he just needed the right ballpark to unleash the beast. 2022 Projection: 92/33/97/.281/.340/.521/2

61) Joey Gallo NYY, OF, 28.4 – Gallo made gains to his K% with Texas with a career best 32.2% K%, but it spiked back up to 38.6% after his trade to the Yankees. He had a .160 BA in his last 58 games of the season. He is the ultimate three true outcome slugger. 2022 Projection: 87/39/85/.203/.337/.490/5

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)