It’s a new year, and that means there is a new crop of prospects ready to take pro ball by storm. This list includes both drafted players and international prospects. Here is the 2023 Top 109 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings:

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Tier 1

1) Druw Jones ARI, OF, 19.4 – Selected 2nd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Jones has that classic tall and projectable build that screams upside, and he has elite bloodlines with Andruw Jones being his father. He has near elite speed (6.31 60 yard dash) and truly elite bat speed (99.42 percentile-besting some marks put up by bat speed monster Harry Ford last year). His power has also exploded this year, with him launching some homers that blew up on Twitter (Will Hoefer). He hurt his shoulder during BP before he was able to debut and underwent surgery to repair it, but I dropped Lawlar from the #1 slot in my first year player draft rankings last year after his shoulder injury, and I’m not making the same mistake with Jones ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 93/30/104/.274/.355/.515/20

2) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.4 – Baseball is starting to feel like it is a hereditary monarchy, where all star games are passed down based on bloodlines like it’s the 1300’s. Jackson is the son of Matt, commander of the Armies of the North, General of the Felix Legions and loyal servant to the true emperor, Marcus Aurelius. Father to a murdered son. Husband to a murdered wife. And I will have my vengeance, in this life or the ne … my bad, lost myself there 🙂 … Like many plus bloodline kids, Jackson is an advanced hitter, and he combines that with plus athleticism and a plus power/speed combo. He truly wields the bat like it’s a samurai sword, gracefully killing the ball with a smooth and powerful lefty swing. He stepped right into pro ball and was far too advanced for rookie ball (220 wRC+ with a 6.1%/30.3% K%/BB% in 8 rookie ball games) before performing well in 12 games at Single-A (130 wRC+ with a 17.5%/26.3% K%/BB%). Druw Jones and Holliday are in a tier of their own. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 96/25/88/.283/.362/.491/14

Tier 2

3) Zach Neto LAA, SS, 22.2 – Selected 12th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, LA put any concerns to rest real early about Neto not playing in the toughest college conference (Big South), quickly moving him to Double-A where he thrived, slashing .320/.382/.492 with 4 homers, 4 steals, and a 21.3%/5.9% K%/BB% in 30 games. I loved him even before the big pro debut, writing around draft time, “Maybe I’ve been watching so much Spencer Steer lately that I’m just seeing him in everywhere, but I’m seeing a lot of Steer in Neto’s game. I think they are both taking a page out of Alex Bregman’s book.” He did what he was supposed to do against the inferior college competition with total across the board destruction, and he also proved it in the Cape League with a 1.026 OPS and an 8/8 K/BB in 16 games. He might not win you any one category, but he can make an impact in all of them. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 87/23/81/.276/.342/.458/13

4) Elijah Green WAS, OF, 19.4 – Selected 5th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Green is the ultimate high risk, high reward prospect. He is a fully grown man at 6’3”, 225 pounds and his father, Eric Green, is a former 1st round pick, Pro Bowl NFL Tight End. He has truly elite speed (6.16 60 yard dash) and exit velocity numbers, but it comes with major hit tool risk. He showed the upside and risk in all it’s glory in his MLB debut with a 156 wRC+ and 40.4% K% in 12 games in rookie ball. If you want to shoot for the moon in off-season first year player drafts, Green is your guy. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 81/32/92/.248/.330/.509/17

5) Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 21.11 – Selected 25th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, the 6’7”, 225 pound Jones is the lefty version of Aaron Judge, even down to the fact they each hit “only” 12 homers in their draft year. It’s the hacky comp, but it’s also one that cuts through all the BS. He had some K issues in college with 64 K’s in 61 SEC games, and a high GB% kept the homers in check. His pro debut tamped down some of those concerns though as he played like a man amongst boys, slashing .344/.425/.538 with 4 homers, 12 steals, and a 18.9%/10.4% K%/BB% in 25 games at mostly Single-A. His power is huge enough to overcome a high GB% and he’s a good athlete with stolen base skills. He’ll get plenty of love in first year player drafts, but I suspect it won’t be enough. Go after him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/27/86/.248/.333/.480/10

6) Termarr Johnson PIT, 2B/SS, 18.10 – Selected 4th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Johnson looks like a seasoned MLB vet at the dish, spitting at pitches out of the zone and making excellent contact when he does swing. His swing looks geared more for contact than power at the moment, but he clearly showed his power potential in the 2021 Home Run Derby at Coors where he crushed 24 homers, one of which went 501 feet. He’s currently in the 98.22 percentile in his class for bat speed too. He’s not a burner, but a 6.65 60 yard dash (Perfect Game) is pretty damn good and he stole 9 bags in 8 Team USA games (he slashed .375/.483/.542 in those games), so his speed might be getting undersold. The only hiccup is his pro debut. He had a 27.6% K% in 9 games at rookie ball and a 24.5% K% in 14 games at Single-A. Both marks are far off from elite contact, but he walked a lot at each level and stole 6 bags total. He also put up a 139 wRC+ at Single-A. The guy can play. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 91/23/86/.277/.355/.478/12

7) Cam Collier CIN, 3B, 18.4 – Selected 18th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Collier is one of the youngest players in the class and is already pretty built up, although it looks like there is room for more. He also has the bloodlines with his father, Lou Collier, playing in the majors for 8 years. He played JUCO ball this year as a 17 year old and was hitting bombs with an extremely fast and powerful lefty swing, slashing .333/.419/.537. He then destroyed rookie ball with a 203 wRC+ in 9 games. His plus hit/power combo was made for Great American Ballpark. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 86/28/94/.271/.346/.496/4

8) Kodai Senga NYM, RHP, 30.2 – It’s never easy valuing veteran players from overseas in relation to teenagers in the minors, which is why I don’t think Senga (and Yoshida) should be included in First Year Player Drafts. He should be included in the MLB portion of your off-season festivities with the rest of the 30 year olds. Including him in a prospect draft completely defeats the purpose of having a separate prospect draft, but I know these guys will be included in prospect drafts in most leagues, so let’s get down to business. In general, my strategy at the top of First Year Player Drafts and off-season prospects drafts is to strike gold on the next Julio/Acuna/Soto etc … This is your chance to hit on future superstars or future top 5 prospects who you can trade for current superstars. It’s not really the place to go after a mid rotation starter like Senga. He signed for 5 years, $75 million, which tells you the type of production MLB executives expect him out of him. Good, but not great. His control is solid, but not standout, and his 8.6% BB% was actually below average. He’s not an innings eater type at 6’0, 178 pounds, and he’s only eclipsed 148 IP once since 2017. I say that to show he isn’t a slam dunk, but there are definitely skills here to get excited about. He throws in the mid to upper 90’s and his splitter is a devastating pitch. He also throws an above average slider and average curve. It’s a #2 starter at best, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see him struggle a bit. 2023 Projection: 11/3.82/1.26/164 in 160 IP

Tier 3

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Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago Cubs (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Los Angeles Dodgers (free)—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—St. Louis Cardinals (free)—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

It’s Sneak Peek season on the Patreon as I continue to build out my 2023 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings. Here is A Top 200 Sneak Peek of the 2023 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

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-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

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Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago Cubs (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Los Angeles Dodgers (free)—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—St. Louis Cardinals (free)—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 28.9 – Ohtani came into 2022 as my #1 overall dynasty player, and he not only hung onto the top spot, but he somehow managed to pull even further away from the pack. He became arguably the best pitcher in baseball with a 2.33 ERA and 33.2%/6.7% K%/BB% in 166 IP. He also continued to be among the best hitters in baseball with a .385 xwOBA which was 6th best overall. It’s not an exaggeration to say that Ohtani is the greatest player to ever play the game. 2023 Projection: 94/33/99/.270/.361/.527/18–13/2.94/1.03/199 in 161 IP

2) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 22.3 – Prospects can break your heart, but the season Julio just had is why we play the game. There is nothing more satisfying in all of fantasy sports than acquiring a young prospect, letting him develop in your farm system, and then watching him explode in his MLB debut. And explode is exactly what he did, slashing .284/.345/.509 with 28 homers, 25 steals, and a 25.9%/7.1% K%/BB% in 132 games. He has elite speed (29.8 ft/sec sprint speed) and elite exit velocity numbers (92/96.2 MPH AVG/FB EV). He closed out the season with a bang, putting up a 1.202 OPS in his final 19 games, which could be foreshadowing for what he has in store for 2023. The only quibble is that he ran far less in the 2nd half with only 4 steals in 7 attempts in his final 50 games, but considering how fast he is, I wouldn’t get too hung up on that. 2023 Projection: 96/32/98/.278/.353/.522/26

3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 25.3 – Acuna underwent knee surgery for a torn ACL in late July 2021, and he was understandably not 100% in 2022. It’s seriously impressive that he was able to make his debut in late April, but that is where the impressing ended. He put up a career worst .764 OPS with only 15 homers in 119 games. His launch angle tanked 7.4 degrees to 10.8 degrees and his sprint speed dropped 0.9 ft/sec to 28.5 ft/sec. It was far from a complete disaster though. His .366 xwOBA was in the top 5% of the league, his 24.9% whiff% was a career best, and he still ran a ton with 29 steals. With a normal off-season and more time away from that surgery, I would be shocked if Acuna doesn’t bounce back to elite levels. 2023 Projection: 106/32/91/.279/.362/.511/33

4) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 25.9 – Alvarez’s .462 xwOBA was bested only by Aaron Judge by .001. His 95.2 MPH EV was only topped by Aaron Judge. He was the 2nd best hitter in baseball this year, behind you guessed it, Aaron Judge. I think you get the point. He’s a 6’5”, 225 pound beast who hits the ball with superhuman strength, and he also has an elite plate approach with a 18.9%/13.9% K%/BB%. The surgically repaired knees might become an issue down the line, but they clearly aren’t going to slow him down anytime soon. 2023 Projection: 102/40/111/.302/.400/.578/1

5) Juan Soto SDP, OF, 24.5 – Soto’s numbers fell off hard in San Diego with a .778 OPS and only 6 homers in 52 games. They have one of the worst hitter’s ballparks in baseball, so it would be easy to feel a little trepidation, but betting against Soto seems foolish. His underlying numbers were still elite in San Diego with a 92.1 MPH EV and 14.9%/19.3% K%/BB% in 228 PA. He was very unlucky all year with a .249 BABIP (career .309 BABIP). His .401 xwOBA was the 4th best mark in baseball. The dude is still silly elite. 2023 Projection: 107/31/98/.283/.420/.521/10

6) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 26.3 – Tucker got considerably slower this year with his sprint speed dropping off a cliff to a well below average 26.4 ft/sec, but he still thrived on the bases with a career high 25 steals in 29 attempts. It’s a reminder that there is a lot more to base stealing than just being fast. He combines his base stealing skills with a near elite plate approach (15.6%/9.7% K%/BB%), above average exit velocity (90 MPH), and a launch made for dingers (19 degree launch with 30 homers). People have been slow to buy into Tucker’s elite status, but 2022 should cement it. 2023 Projection: 82/32/97/.271/.340/.507/21

7) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS/3B, 22.10 – Bobby Witt was the fastest man in the majors with a 30.4 ft/sec sprint speed (actually tied for first with Jose Siri and Bubba Thompson), at least until someone by the name of Corbin Carroll showed up and put up a 30.7 mark. It led to 30 stolen bases in 37 attempts, and with the new stolen base rules, I’m hesitant to even put a ceiling on what he’s capable of in 2023. There were some swing and miss concerns prior to his debut, but he proved that won’t be an issue with an above average 21.4% K%. His power was good but not great with 20 homers in 150 games, and there is a little Cody Bellinger risk here, in that he hits the ball in the air a lot with a relatively low FB/LD EV (92.6 MPH). Witt’s 16.8 degree launch angle isn’t as extreme as Bellinger’s 20.3 degree launch, his 113.7 Max EV (top 8% of the league) was much higher than Bellinger’s 107.3 MPH Max, and I’m only expecting continued improvements from the still 22 year old Witt. He has scary high upside, and we just saw the floor. 2023 Projection: 87/26/90/.267/.331/.472/36

Shadow7) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 28.9 – This is where I would take Ohtani as a hitter only or in a weekly lineup league. 2023 Projection: 94/33/99/.270/.361/.527/18–13/2.94/1.03/199 in 161 IP

8) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, SS/OF, 24.3 – Tatis seems to have a karmic black cloud hanging over his head. He had an injured shoulder that kept popping out which he refused to get surgery for, then he fractured his wrist in a motorcycle accident, and then he got popped for a PED suspension which will keep him out 20 games into 2023. They do say bad news comes in 3’s. It does seem like he is trying to make amends now though. He agreed to get shoulder surgery and also underwent wrist surgery. The thing that worries me a little bit is that the doctors were concerned the first wrist surgery wouldn’t hold, so he had to have a 2nd one where they inserted a screw. He’s collecting enough red flags to open a Six Flags Great Adventure amusement park. Despite it all, I still find it hard to believe his best days are behind him. He’s a 24 year old elite athlete with baseball bloodlines. It would be too risk averse to sell low or write him off when the upside is something like 9 more years of elite production. I would take any discount on Tatis that I could get. 2023 Projection: 86/28/84/.273/.355/.558/19

9) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 24.1 – Vlad gave up almost all of the gains he made in 2021. His EV dropped 2.3 MPH to 92.8 MPH, his launch angle dropped 5.1 degrees to 4.3 degrees, and his xwOBA dropped .069 points to .348. He’s still a beast who played in 160 games and jacked 32 homers with a 16.4% K%. He also stole a career high 8 bags. This is basically his floor, and we saw the type of year he could put up when everything comes together. 2023 Projection: 96/34/104/.282/.349/.510/5

10) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 30.11 – Judge hit only 62 homers this year, not even coming close to the home run record of 73. His cute little 207 wRC+ was bested by Barry Bonds 5 times. He also stole only 16 bases, falling short of the vaunted 20/20 season. It was just a disappointment all around, and as a Yankees fan, it’s unacceptable. He wasn’t worth a dollar more than $359,999,999 😉  2023 Projection: 111/43/109/.286/.398/.562/11

11) Trea Turner PHI, SS, 29.9 – It wasn’t Turner’s best statistical season with a 6 year low .809 OPS, a career low 27 steals, and a career worst 26.3% whiff%, but nothing was that far off from career norms. There are also zero signs that he’s slowing down with a super elite 30.3 ft/sec sprint speed, so who knows what he’ll be capable of with the new stolen base rules. There is a chance we see some truly special stolen base seasons in 2023, and Turner is in prime position to lead that charge. His move to Philadelphia doesn’t change his value at all for me. 2023 Projection: 103/23/87/.293/.344/.486/36

12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 30.6 – Ramirez jammed his thumb at the end of June, which would eventually require off-season surgery, and he wasn’t the same player after that. He had a 1.039 OPS before the injury and a .766 OPS after the injury. He had his usual great year regardless with 29 homers, 20 steals, and a 139 wRC+, but his underlying numbers fell off hard with a below average 87.7 MPH EV and a barely above average .320 xwOBA. Because it is very clear what caused the drop off, and because he should have plenty of time to fully recover this off-season, I wouldn’t drop him at all in rankings. Although this is how a decline can start, with injuries piling up and maybe not healing as well, or as fast as they did when you were in your 20’s. 2023 Projection: 93/30/100/.274/.353/.519/22

13) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 25.1 – Bichette was on his way to a disappointing season before going Mach 5 in his final 42 games, slashing .386/.436/.608 with 7 homers, 6 steals, and a 29/13 K/BB. He had a .716 OPS in the 117 games before that. The plate approach isn’t great (22.2%/5.9% K%/BB%), the launch angle could be better (8.5 degrees), and he’s not that fast (27.5 ft/sec sprint speed), but what he does best is smoking the ball with a 91.9/95.2 MPH AVG/FB EV, and that is almost the most important thing. I’ll keep betting on a 25 year old who crushes the ball with a good feel to hit and some speed. 2023 Projection: 97/27/97/.293/.340/.502/17

14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 26.5 – Devers is as easy as it comes to evaluate. He demolishes the ball with an elite 93.1 MPH EV, and his 11.3 degree launch angle is geared for both power and average. He also maintained the improved plate approach from 2021 with an 18.6%/8.1% K%/BB%. He’s that perfect combo of being young and established, plus he strikes me as the type who will be able to hit from a wheelchair, meaning I would bet on him producing well into his 30’s. 2023 Projection: 89/29/105/.284/.348/.517/4

15) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 22.1 – Harris got a surprise call-up straight from Double-A and he hit the ground running in the majors, slashing .297/.339/.515 with 19 homers, 20 steals, and a 24.3%/4.8% K%/BB% in 114 games. He has an elite 29.4 ft/sec sprint speed and he hits the ball damn hard with a 89.5/95.8 MPH AVG/FB EV. Both is GB% (56.2% vs. 45.9%) and BB% (4.8% vs. 8.7%) were much better at Double-A than in the majors, so I think it is fair to expect improvements in that area as he refines his game. It’s bonkos he was even able to do what he did as a 21 year old with 196 total AB’s in the upper minors, all at Double-A. He’s an elite dynasty asset. 2023 Projection: 93/22/79/.279/.336/.472/28

16) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 22.1 – A quad injury knocked Franco out for almost all of June and then a wrist injury which required surgery knocked him out for 2 months from early July to early September. The injuries contributed to his mediocre season with his EV tanking to 85.1 MPH after returning from the wrist injury, but it wasn’t the only reason, as he had only 5 homers in 58 games before going down with that injury. He’s simply not geared to be a power hitter at this point in his career, but he’s still so young it would be silly to cap his power upside at this point. He makes so much contact with a 9.6% K% (top 1% of the league) that he doesn’t need to have an extreme launch angle to knock a healthy amount of dingers out, and an 8.2 degree launch is far from hopeless. He also stole 8 bags in 83 games, giving hope he will be more of a mid teens guy than a 10 or under guy. It wasn’t the breakout we were hoping for, but we can’t pine for prospects to get called up in their early 20’s before their prime, and then bemoan the fact they aren’t putting up prime numbers immediately. I’m staying patient and holding strong on his ranking. 2023 Projection: 92/18/76/.292/.348/.447/16 Prime Projection: 106/24/85/.314/.378/.492/15

17) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 30.6 – It’s clear that Betts is entering the back nine of his career, but a superstar talent like this has some tricks in their bag to slow that decline. He cranked a career high 35 homers in 142 games, and he did it by jumping on the first pitch 30.4% of the time, which is a career high by far (19.1% in 2021). The signs of decline could be seen with his sprint speed not bouncing back from an injury filled 2021, and he now has very slightly below average speed (49th percentile). His 14 steal attempts were a career low (other than the shortened 2020). His BA didn’t bounce back either, sitting at .269, and his xBA is saying it isn’t a fluke (.254 xBA). The adjustments Betts’ is making gives hope he can maintain elite, or near elite levels for a few more years, but it’s hard to completely ignore the red flags that have popped up here and there. 2023 Projection: 110/30/78/.277/.351/.527/14

18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 30.6 – Odds are Bryce Harper is on a win now team in Dynasty, and with news he’s likely to be out for a few months into 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, I would go sniffing around to see if you can land him for any kind of a discount. Tommy John surgery is not nearly as big of a deal for hitters as it pitchers, and it’s very likely he returns to prime form. It also feels like the guy is 35 years old already because he’s been in the league since he was 19, but he’s still only 30 and should have several more years of elite production left. He’s in that true elite of the elite class of player that has a real chance of killing it deep into his 30’s. Harper would have been essentially untouchable before this injury, but now the window is open just a crack, and I would go after him regardless of where my team is in the contention cycle. 2023 Projection: 56/18/54/.281/.380/.525/6

Let’s shake things up to close out the year with some end of season fireworks. My Top 13 Early Off-Season Dynasty Baseball Targets just hit the Patreon this afternoon, which will be followed by a Sell article tomorrow, and then a Dynasty Baseball Superlatives/Awards article after that. Here is the 2016 MiLB Player Superlatives/Awards article I wrote in 2016 if you weren’t reading me back then (2016 MiLB Player Superlatives/Awards – Imaginary Brick Wall). Come on over to the Patreon to check it out!

– Halp

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR WILD CARD WEEK AND TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 360 SEPTEMBER 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
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-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS (one of my favorite things I’ve ever written)
-MID-SEASON OBP TOP 447 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS 
-MID-SEASON POINTS/6+CATS/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 430 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 40 2023 FYPD RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT: Team Prospect Lists, Positional Dynasty Rankings, and early access to the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

Previous rankings from July through April are in parenthesis, in that order. Here is the Top 455 August 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

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-TOP 350 AUGUST 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
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-MID-SEASON OBP TOP 447 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS 
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-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

Tier 1

1) (1) (1) (1) (1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 28.2 – He’s in a tier of his own. He’s the perfect fantasy player.

Tier 2

2) (2) (2) (3) (3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 24.8 – Homer power hasn’t been there with his launch angle tanking, but I have a hard time believing he forgot how to hit homers. He had surgery for a torn ACL in late July 2021, so it’s impressive he’s even been this good and able to play in this many games. He’s going to be much closer to 100% next year

3) (3) (3) (2) (2) Juan Soto SDP, OF, 23.10 – 5×5 BA leagues are not his bread and butter, but he’s elite no matter how you slice it

4) (4) (6) (22) (21) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 21.8 – Don’t let the Kelenic’s of the world scare you off from keeping your elite prospects. Just like in real life, the backbone of the best dynasty teams are often a cheap young core of homegrown talent

5) (8) (8) (7) (15) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 25.2 – If he’s not the best hitter in baseball, he’s at least tied for the best hitter in baseball with Aaron Judge

6) (5) (7) (26) (20) Bobby Witt Jr. KC, SS, 22.2 – .311 xwOBA is slightly below average, but the individual components of the underlying numbers look much better and this is just the beginning for Witt

7) (6) (5) (4) (5) Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 23.7 – Here’s what I wrote about Tatis in my Monday Dynasty Rundown, “Is Tatis an irredeemable fuck up who you should sell immediately in dynasty? Or is he an immature 23 year old kid making bad decisions with the expectations of the world on his shoulders? I like to think I’m a good judge of character, and to me this is a clear case of the latter, which is why I would buy everywhere I could. It’s like when my mom busted me for smoking weed in my room in high school at 1 a.m. in the morning while watching Late Night with Conan O’Brien. No ma, that’s not weed you smell, I’m just super gassy from that Claritin D you gave me! I swear it! Deny, deny, deny. And look at me now, I turned out fine, quitting a career in law to become a fantasy baseball writer. My parents couldn’t be prouder!” Update: Decided to undergo shoulder surgery and is expected to be ready to go when his suspension is up. Shoulder surgeons have been on a roll lately with Corbin Carrol, Josh Jung, Jordan Lawlar, and Pete Crow Armstrong all dominating coming off recent shoulder surgery. I think he made a good decision

8) (7) (4) (5) (8) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 25.7 – 26.6 ft/sec sprint speed is well below average and down considerably from last year. He’s stealing more bases than ever this year, but I would be concerned about how much longer he can keep this up

9) (11) (21) (24) (27) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 30.3 – On a competing team he would rank 2nd

10) (9) (10) (11) (7) Trea Turner LAD, SS, 29.2 – I’m betting on his speed aging well

Shadow10) (9) (16) (14) (13) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 27.10

11) (10) (9) (6) (4) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 23.6 – Starting to find that next level gear with 6 homers and a .995 OPS in his last 28 games

12) (13) (15) (13) (13) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 29.7 – Has been taking batting practice as he nears a return from thumb surgery

13) (12) (11) (12) (12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 29.9 – Stolen base pace is on a 5 year low and an 87.8 MPH EV is a 7 year low. I still love him, but I can see team construction scenarios where it makes sense to sell this off-season

14) (15) (18) (16) (14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 25.9 

15) 16) (20) (35) (69) Shane McClanahan TBR, LHP, 25.3 – Going through his first rough patch with a 4.94 ERA and 19/9 K/BB in his last 23.2 IP

16) (17) (19) (17) (16) Corbin Burnes MIL, RHP, 27.8

17) (36) (37) (32) (34) Jacob deGrom NYM, RHP, 34.0 – 37/1 K/BB with a career high 99.5 MPH fastball in 23.1 IP since returning. I mean, come on. I don’t care about his age, I think he is on the Verlander/Scherzer path. If you can get an age discount on him this off-season in fantasy, I would jump on it

Tier 3

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)