Dynasty Baseball Rundown – Page 4

Posted on September 11, 2023September 11, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (9/11/23)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (9/11/23):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-SEPTEMBER TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-AUGUST TOP 379 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-7 END OF SEASON STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: AUGUST MAILBAG! (8/25/23)
-TOP 38 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (8/15/23)
-TOP 17 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (8/3/23)
-Off-Season content includes team prospect lists, deep positional rankings, strategy articles, and very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.7 – It turns out even Martians have UCL’s, and they apparently aren’t that sturdy as the The Martian tore his UCL and will require Tommy John surgery that could keep him out through the first half of 2024 as well. Tommy John surgery isn’t as big a deal for hitters as it is for pitchers, but it feels like it came at the worst possible time with him in the midst of a historic MLB debut with 4 homers in his first 8 games. He checked in at #97 on the September Top 476 Dynasty Baseball Rankings that dropped on the Patreon last week, but with the injury, I might drop him more towards the 120 range.

Noelvi Marte CIN, SS, 21.10 – These rookies are dropping like flies. Marte broke his nose after getting hit in the face playing catch with Elly De La Cruz. I always hated getting paired up with the kid who threw a 90 MPH tailing fastball in warmups, but unlike Marte, I always managed to actually catch the ball. Score one for Halp. On the other hand, I did break my nose while playing basketball my freshman year of college, and the ER doctor just said, “yup, it’s broken,” and sent me back out there with nothing they could do for it. I sat out a few days of my volleyball class before getting bored and deciding to play through it. I’m assuming Marte will do the same. He was in the midst of shoving it in all the scouts faces who called him fat and slow this off-season with 6 steals and a 28.8 ft/sec sprint speed, which is in the top 14 percent of the league. I feel like speed grades are by far the least reliable from scouts. He was also crushing the ball with a 92.4 MPH EV. All signs point towards him being a fantasy beast.

Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 21.5/Wyatt Langford TEX, OF, 21.8 – In my 7 End of Season Strategies and Thoughts (Patreon) article, I wrote that your focus should be on 2023 draftees, because that is where the largest swings in value will occur this late in the season, and right now, the first swing in value could be happening at the very top of the FYPD rankings. Crews continues to surprisingly struggle hard at Double-A with a measly 39 wRC+ in 16 games, while Langford recently got the call to the level and keeps on rolling with a 142 wRC+ in 6 games. They were already 1A and 1B for me in the rankings, and their Double-A performance could be tipping the scales to Langford for that top spot. It’s still obviously a small sample, and I would be very happy with either, but if I were picking today, I’m going Langford.

Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.9 – Holliday finally met a level he couldn’t just dominate right from the jump with a 64 wRC+, 0 homers and 0 steals in 6 games at Triple-A, but I’m sure the hot streak is coming as he went 2 for 3 with a double and 2 walks last night, and he has an elite 10%/16.7% K%/BB%. I mentioned in the August Top 379 Prospects Rankings that the one blemish (I wouldn’t even really call it a blemish, more of a smudge) on his profile is that the power/speed combo has slowed down in the upper minors with only 3 homers and 3 steals in his last 42 games. He has only 10 homers in 113 games on the season. He’s only 19, and the season he just had is ridiculous for his age, so it seems silly to even mention, but when there is another uber 19 year old in Jackson Chourio right behind him, it’s at least something to think about if you are choosing between the 2 in startup dynasty drafts this off-season.

Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.6 – Speaking of Chourio, he hits dingers in his sleep, and he smacked his 22nd of the season at Double-A going the opposite way. It also comes with 41 steals. We got a couple of really fun debates coming up this off-season at both the top of first year player drafts (Crews vs. Langford) and at the top of prospect drafts (Holliday vs. Chourio).

Paul Skenes PIT, RHP, 21.2/Yoshinobu Yamamoto FA, RHP, 25.1 – The fun debates don’t end with the hitters, because we have one brewing with who should be the first pitcher off the board in First Year Player Drafts as well. While everyone is slicing and dicing Skenes fastball shape, Yamamoto is out there pitching no hitters in Japan on Friday. He’s having a spotless season with a 1.20 ERA and 152/24 K/BB in 150 IP. He has the filthy stuff, plus control, plus durability, diverse pitch mix, plus strikeout rates, athletic delivery … there is nothing he doesn’t have, and I think he will make it very tough to pass him up in favor of Skenes. Right now, I have Yamamoto as the top dog.

Druw Jones ARI, OF, 19.8 – Look who finally decided to join us for the 2023 season. Jones is showing up fashionably late, or maybe at this point he’s just rudely late, but he finally showed up nonetheless. He went 3 for 5 with a stolen base yesterday and is now slashing .339/.438/.500 with 2 homers, 6 steals, and a 15/11 K/BB in his last 16 games at Single-A. It brings his season wRC+ at the level to an above average 104 in 29 games, which takes his season from a total disaster to just disappointing. Coming off the shoulder surgery and the myriad of injuries he suffered this year, it’s fair to write this season off as a lost year, and with him showing signs of life here, he might make for a good buy low this off-season.

Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.5 – With every top prospect and their mother getting called up to the majors, Petey Crow must be feeling pretty lonely still at Triple-A, and he’s taking his frustration out on the baseball. He went 4 for 5 yesterday with a double and a grand salami. It’s his second grand slam in 6 games, and there is really nothing left for him to prove in the minors. His path to the majors isn’t exactly wide open, but he’s not really blocked either. I’m expecting a callup before the end of the season, but who knows really. Update: Literally minutes after publishing this article it was announced PCA will be called up to the bigs. Perfect timing ha

Jackson Jobe DET, RHP, 20.10 – Jobe got a late start to the season coming off a serious back injury, so you are forgiven if it slipped by you that he very well might have a legitimate case to be the best pitching prospect in baseball. He threw another gem yesterday, going 5 IP with 5 hits, 1 ER, and a 7/0 K/BB at High-A. Here is a highlight reel of the filth. He now has a 3.10 ERA with a 78/6 K/BB in 58 IP. He throws 3 at least plus pitches in his fastball, slider, and changeup. If his hype doesn’t explode this off-season like it should, he will be a major target.

Barrett Kent LAA, RHP, 18.11 – The 6’4”, 215 pound Kent was an 8th round pick in this year’s draft, but he signed for almost $1 million, so you know how much LA liked him. He’s now turning heads in pro ball after making his full season debut at Single-A yesterday, going 4 IP with 2 hit, 0 ER, and a 5/1 K/BB. The fastball sat low to mid 90’s and he broke off some nasty changeups. He’s shaping up to be a nice later round target if you stock up on hitters early.

Michael King NYY, RHP, 28.3 – The Yankees rotation is crumbling piece by piece, but one man has risen from the ashes, and we call that man King (because that’s his name). Michael King is becoming a very enticing target this off-season after being transitioned to the rotation, and he had another great outing on Saturday, going 5 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 9/1 K/BB vs. MIL. The sinker sat 94.8 MPH, the changeup notched a 71% whiff% and the sweeper notched a 43% whiff%. It’s his 3rd straight excellent start in a row, and as you can see, he most certainly has the stuff to back it up. He was a starter in the minors, and a damn good one at that with a 2.96 ERA in 392.2 career MiLB IP, so none of this is foreign to him. He could be legit.

Kevin Alcantara CHC, OF, 21.2 – Alcantara closed out his season with a bang, going 4 for 4 with a double, homer, and a play at the plate which showed off his flair for the dramatic. He got off to a slow start on the season, but he’s been a man possessed over his last 62 games, slashing .330/.401/.540 with 9 homers, 5 steals, and a 57/27 K/BB at High-A. He has an excellent 124 wRC+ in 95 games on the season. Don’t sleep on this 6”6”, 188 pound unicorn athlete, because the hype could explode when he takes on the upper minors in 2024.

Myles Naylor OAK, SS, 18.5 – Naylor 3.0 was drafted 39th overall in this year’s draft, and he’s off to an extreme start, both good and bad, in his pro debut. He went deep for his 6th homer in 34 games at mostly Single-A yesterday, but it comes with a brutal 39.6% K%. That is in Elijah Green cover your eyes territory. You have to love the bloodlines (Josh and Bo are his older brothers) and the power, but that K% has to scare you off at least a little.

Victor Scott STL, OF, 22.6 – Scott is an absolute machine on the bases as he once again nabbed 3 bags in a game. It’s the 8th time he’s done that this year. His contact/speed profile has had no issues at Double-A with a 14.3% K%, 43 steals, 6 homers and a .328 BA in 60 games at the level. Make no mistake, Scott is one of the top speed prospects in all of baseball. Easy Top 100 prospect.

AJ Vukovich ARI, 3B, 22.1 – Vukovich has very quietly put together a strong season at Double-A, and it got stronger yesterday with him cracking a dinger. It’s his 2nd homer in 3 games, 3rd homer in 6 games, 4th homer in 10 games, 5th homer in 19 games, 6th homer in 29 games, 7th homer in 37 games, 8th homer in 39 games, 9th homer in 40 games … you get the point, he has a lot of homers (24 homers in 110 games at Double-A to be exact) ;). He’s a big dude at 6’2”, 210 pounds, and he’s also an excellent athlete, evidenced by 17 steals. The plate approach is rough with a 28.3%/8.8% K%/BB%, so there is risk, but he’s a legitimately exciting prospect. He checked in at #234 on the August Top 379 Prospects Rankings (Patreon).

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on August 14, 2023August 15, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/14/23)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-AUGUST TOP 477 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-MID-SEASON TOP 357 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 17 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (8/3/23)
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/28/23)
-TOP 38 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (8/15/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

Zack Gelof OAK, 2B/3B, 23.10 – Here’s what I wrote about Gelof about two weeks ago in my Top 17 Dynasty Baseball Targets article, “If you want safety, sign up for a defensive driving course. This here is the autobahn of dynasty baseball schools, and I don’t want speed limits. I want to take the restrictor plate off and let it fly. That brings us to the 6’3”, 205 pound Zack Gelof, whose upside was considerably underrated in the minors. The guy came up to the majors and has been a power/speed glutton with a 91.8 MPH EV, 20.3 degree launch, and 29.5 ft/sec sprint speed. It’s led to 4 homers and 5 steals in just 16 games. He flashed those same skills in the minors with 12 homers and 20 steals in 69 games at Triple-A. Sure it might feel like your car is coming apart at the seams with the steering wheel shaking and hearing a weird squeaking sound that you can’t quite place because your whiff% meter is well into the danger zone at 42.1%, but fuck it, you’re sick of playing it safe and falling just short of a championship. In fantasy baseball, if you crash and burn, you don’t actually die, you just feel shitty for a few weeks/months. If you can’t take risks in fantasy, where can you take risks? And for Gelof’s current very reasonable price, he’s worth the risk for that big time upside he’s showing off.” … he went 4 for 5 with 2 bombs last night and since that write-up is slashing .382/.432/.853 with 4 homers, 1 steal, and a 7/3 K/BB in 9 games. Buy windows can close fast during the season, and this buy window might have just slammed shut on your fingers if you didn’t act fast.

Wilyer Abreu BOS, OF, 24.1 – Abreu was also named in that target article, and he also went nuclear yesterday with a 3 dinger day. He has a sweet, sweet lefty swing that I just can’t quit, and it’s resulted in 20 bombs with a 21.4%/15.4% K%/BB% and 121 wRC+ in 80 games at Triple-A. He barely gets a whisper of hype and all he does is rake.

Noah Schultz CHW, LHP, 20.0 – I promise you I don’t want to turn this entire Rundown into one big pat myself on the back fest, but I can’t help that so many of my Targets went off yesterday. Schultz was my top pitcher target for first year player drafts, and now his hype is absolutely blowing up. He kept his immaculate season going yesterday (3.1 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 5/2 K/BB) and now has a 1.33 ERA with a 36.5%/5.8% K%/BB% in 27 IP at Single-A.

Bryan Ramos CHW, 3B, 21.3 – Okay, this is a cry for help now … just … can’t … stop … being … right 😉 … Ramos is the Rodney Dangerfield of prospects, the guy just don’t get no respect. He dug out a pitch that was down and in and somehow managed to go the other way with it with authority for his 11th homer in 49 games at Double-A. I’ve been banging his drum for two years and he’s now destroying Double-A, slashing .274/.392/.508 with 11 homers, 4 steals, and a 22.7%/12.4% K%/BB%. There actually might still be a buy window here, because I’ll tell ya, he got no respect the day he was born. He ranked 77th on my Mid-Season Top 357 Dynasty Prospects Rankings.

Coby Mayo BAL, 3B, 21.8 – I’m doing everything in my power to not mention that I predicted Coby Mayo would be a Top 10 Prospect in my Predicting the Top 50 2024 Dynasty Baseball Prospects back in February. I’m not sure he’s quite at Top 10 level yet, but he’s certainly blown up this year, and he’s starting to conquer Triple-A now too with a 457 foot bomb for his 3rd homer in 26 games. He only has a 69 wRC+ at the level (177 wRC+ at Double-A), but his strikeout rate has come down to a reasonable 25.2% and a lot of it is poor BABIP luck (.242 BABIP).

Moises Ballesteros CHC, C, 19.8 – Okay Mike, it’s not even funny anymore, don’t mention that you named Ballesteros your top catcher target this off-season in your Positional Targets Series … don’t do it … Ballesteros was my top catcher target this off-season in my Positional Targets Series, and he’s gone off this year. He got the call to High-A after conquering Single-A, and he’s now officially destroying the level after cracking his 3rd homer. He has a 131 wRC+ in 37 games after putting up a 143 wRC+ in 56 games at Single-A.

Anthony Solometo PIT, LHP, 20.7 – Let’s use Solometo as a palate cleanser. Finally one of my targets who didn’t play well yesterday. He went 1 IP with 4 hits, 3 ER and a 1/1 K/BB at Double-A. He hasn’t been bad at Double-A, but he hasn’t been dominant either with a 4.15 ERA and 25.2%/5.4% K%/BB% in 34.2 IP. Keep in mind he’s still only 20 years old, and it’s also nice to see the walk rate come all the way down to a near elite 5.4% BB%.

Homer Bush Jr. SDP, OF, 21.10 – Don’t worry, Homer Bush Jr. has never been a target of mine … yet. He didn’t crack my Top 50 2024 FYPD Rankings, but he’s proving he should have with an excellent pro debut. After across the board destruction in rookie ball, he got called up to Single-A and is still raking, slashing .294/.478/.529 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 8.7%/13% K%/BB% in 5 games. His 12 pro steals leads all 2023 draftees. As the 128th pick in the draft, he’s quickly becoming one of my favorite sleeper bats.

Enrique Bradfield Jr. BAL, OF, 21.8 – Speaking of guys racking up steals, Bradfield racked up 4 steals yesterday and is a perfect 9 for 9 in only 7 pro games (3 games in rookie and 4 in Single-A). As the 17th pick in the draft, you won’t get the discount you can get on Bush, but his category winning stolen base prowess is worth the price.

Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 21.4 – You heard it here first, Crews is my #1 sleeper target in first year player drafts 😉 … He’s unsurprisingly obliterating the lower minors after going 5 for 5 with 2 homers yesterday at High-A. He has a 193 wRC+ in 8 games at the level. It continues to lock in his status as a truly elite prospect, and he already ranked 51st overall on the Updated Top 477 Dynasty Baseball Rankings that dropped last week on my Patreon.

Ryan Pepiot LAD, RHP, 25.11 – 6.2 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 11/0 K/BB at Triple-A. The fastball sat 94.3 MPH and the changeup dominated with a 50% whiff%. Here’s a highlight reel of his dominance. I feel like we’ve seen enough plus changeup Dodgers pitchers struggle in the majors (Gavin Stone, Emmet Sheehan) to scare us off, but at the same time, those struggles might open the door for Pepiot to get the next shot when/if a rotation spot opens.

Matt Shaw CHC, SS, 21.8/Tommy Troy ARI, 3B/2B, 21.6 – There seems to be a split between people who prefer Shaw and people who prefer Troy, and while I’m most certainly on Team Shaw, I like Troy too. They both homered yesterday, and now Shaw is utterly decimating High-A with 2 homers, 1 steal, a 15.4% K% and 205 wRC+ in 9 games. Troy isn’t playing as well with a 80 wRC+ in 10 games, but a lot of that is bad BABIP luck (.185 BABIP) because the 3 homers, 4 steals, and a 26.1% K% ain’t bad at all. Shaw checked in at 43rd overall on my Mid-Season Top 357 Prospects Rankings while Troy checked in at #126.

Termarr Johnson PIT, 2B/SS, 19.1 – It didn’t take long for Johnson to find his footing at High-A. After struggling in his first few games at the level, he’s homered in back to back games. His hit tool might not have been quite as good as advertised, but this is still an explosive player with a very mature plate approach. I would say he’s living up to about 95% of his draft hype.

Chase Silseth LAA, RHP, 23.1 – 5 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 5/2 K/BB vs. HOU. He probably got a bit lucky in this one with only a 16% whiff% and with his secondaries getting hit relatively hard, but you know what they say, it’s better to be lucky than good. And it’s also a good sign that he was still able to come through without his best stuff. He ranked 332nd on the Updated Top 477 Dynasty Rankings.

Jace Jung DET, 2B, 22.9 – Jung went lefty on lefty off Solometo on a pitch that was so bad I’m not even sure what it was. I’m assuming it was a hanging slider. They all count the same though, and Jung is more than handling his business since getting the call to Double-A with 4 homers and a 118 wRC+ in 19 games. The Jung’s are taking the baseball world by storm this year, and it won’t be long before baby bro Jace joins his big bro Josh in the majors.

James Wood WAS, OF, 20.10 – Wood unloaded for his 13th homer in 58 games at Double-A, and he did it with an impressively short and quick swing. That type of swing gives hope his hit tool will be good enough to let the huge power/speed combo shine, but there is undeniable hit tool risk with a 32.7% K% at the level. I’m buying the talent, just like I am with the similarly tall and thin Elly (who cracked his 10th MLB homer yesterday).

Carson Williams TBR, SS, 20.1 – Okay, 11 blurbs is long enough to go without mentioning my targets going off, right? My man Williams went 5 for 5 with 2 doubles at High-A, and most importantly, he didn’t strike out once. He’s been excellent all season, but he’s been especially great over his last 33 games with 9 homers and a .973 OPS. The 30.9% K% is too high, but he has the type of talent to overlook that one small snafu. He also has the defensive prowess to keep him on the field while he works through the hit tool issues.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on July 31, 2023August 3, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/31/23)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 473 JULY DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 357 JULY DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 17 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (8/3/23)
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/28/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (7/14/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

Nolan Schanuel LAA, 1B, 21.5 – I remember when I started writing back in 2015, the pro debuts for recently drafted players were always poo pooed. The default line that every prospect writer gave when asked about the pro performance of the most recent draft class was always some variation of “small sample size,” and they would never deviate from their pre draft evaluation of a player. That never made sense to me, as it seemed obvious that what a player did when they actually started facing pro pitching with a wood bat was very important, actionable information. Well, the prospect landscape has changed drastically over the last 8 years, and now almost every prospect writer puts the proper weight on pro debuts. Valuations can change in a hurry in both directions. Just look at Dalton Rushing and Jacob Berry, likely the two biggest movers in opposite directions in last year’s draft class based on their debuts. Keeping an eye on the recent draftees is one of the most fun/important things you can do at this point of the season. So on that note, let’s kick things off with keeping an eye on the 11th overall pick in the draft, Nolan Schanuel. In true Angels fashion, while everyone else is taking things slow with their draft picks, Schanuel has already skyrocketed to Double-A. This looks like a Zach Neto situation all over again. He’s now the favorite to be the first one to reach the majors from his draft class, and he has the type of extremely advanced plate approach to succeed quickly. He put up a 1.190 OPS with a 1/5 K/BB in 5 games split between rookie and Single-A, but his first game at Double-A was a bit of a “welcome to pro ball, kid” moment, going 0 for 4 with 3 K’s. He bounced back yesterday though with a 3 for 4 night, including a triple and 0/2 K/BB. We’ll quickly find out how good of a plate approach he really has after putting up elite strikeout to walk rates in Conference USA. He ranked 15th overall on my Top 50 2024 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon) and is looking like one of top picks if you want a quick mover.

Max Clark DET, OF, 18.6 – Clark made his pro debut in rookie ball, and he showed off his pu pu platter of skills all in one hit. He ripped a ball the opposite way to deep left centerfield off a lefty, and then showed off the wheels by easily legging out a triple. He went 1 for 4 with 2 K’s on the day. After the consensus top 3 are off the board (Crews, Langford, Skenes), I would be all over Clark, and he already ranked 14th overall on the Mid-Season Top 357 Dynasty Prospects Rankings that dropped last week on the Patreon.

Matt Shaw CHC, SS, 21.8 – There is a consensus Top 5 in the draft (Crews, Langford, Skenes, Clark, Jenkins), but I think Shaw is knocking on the door of that top tier as my top target after that. He’s unsurprisingly crushing rookie ball, going 4 for 8 with 1 homer, 1 double, 2 steals, and a 1/2 K/BB in 3 games. I love his little man leg kick, which is the same swing that made me fall in love with Zach Neto and Spencer Steer. I’m all in on him, ranking him 43rd overall on the Mid-Season Top 357 Prospects Rankings.

Tommy Troy ARI, 3B/2B, 21.6 – Many people have Troy over Shaw, and he did also get taken one pick ahead of Shaw in the draft, but I don’t think Troy has quite the fantasy upside that Shaw has. To Troy’s credit, he’s also handling his business in rookie ball like he should, going 4 for 8 with 1 steal and a 1/2 K/BB in 3 games. Other than the Angels, teams are rightfully taking it slow by starting guys off in rookie ball. There is no reason to not allow them to get their footing slowly in pro ball before promoting them to higher levels.

Chase Davis STL, OF, 21.7 – St. Louis didn’t take the rookie ball first route with Davis, sending him straight to full season ball, and maybe they should have re thought that decision. The hit tool was really the one concern with Davis, and it’s rearing it’s ugly head in the early going with him putting up a 37.5% K% with a .231 BA in 8 games. He’s yet to do any damage either with 0 homers and a .644 OPS. It comes with a 18.8% BB%, which definitely eases some concerns that it’s just small sample noise and/or that he’s being too patient, but it’s still not what you want to see. It’s far too early for this to change anything, but it’s definitely something to keep an eye on.

Mitch Jebb PIT, SS, 21.2 – Selected 42nd overall, Jebb also debuted in full season ball, and unlike Davis, he’s thriving, going 8 for 14 with 2 doubles, 1 steal, and a 0/1 K/BB. He got drafted on the back of his at least plus hit/speed combo, and that profile is transferring completely in the early going. There is little to no power here, which is why he didn’t crack my Top 50, but I definitely have my eye on him with the strong early showing.

Aidan Miller PHI, SS, 19.1 – Miller is already 19 years old, and while 19 year old high school prospects aren’t my favorite to go after, he undeniably has a beastly righty swing geared for both average and power. He’s showed off that swing real quick by going 3 for 4 with 2 doubles in first first pro game in rookie ball and is 4 for 7 with 1 K over 2 games. A strong pro debut could get his hype cooking real quick, and he’s already highly touted.

Homer Bush Jr. SDP, OF, 21.9 – I’ll always have fond memories of Homer Bush as a Yankees fan. He put up a 139 wRC+ in 78 PA during that special 1998 season when I was in my sports fandom prime as a 12 year old. I don’t know why, but thinking back on those fun bench players and part time players almost brings back more nostalgia than remembering the stars. Time marches on though, and now Homer Bush is 50 years old, and it’s his sons turn to make some memories for the kids. He stepped right into rookie ball and has already popped 2 homers in 6 games, one of which was the inside the park variety. He’s also tacked on 5 steals with a 4/2 K/BB. He wasn’t highly drafted as a 4th round pick, and there is nothing he can do in rookie ball to really get the hype going as a college player, but he has the bloodlines and a fantasy friendly profile with plus speed and good feel to hit. If the power can take a jump, there is definitely potential for him to become an intriguing prospect.

Jace Jung DET, 2B, 22.9 – Jung might not have the shiny new toy excitement that the new draftees have, but he’s been quietly having a killer season that got a whole lot louder yesterday after smashing 2 homers at Double-A. He now has 3 homers with a 9/1 K/BB in 6 games at the level after handling his business at High-A with 14 homers and a 22.7%/15.3% K%/BB% in 81 games. He’ll be a no doubt Top 100 prospect in no time if he keeps this up in the upper minors, if he’s not there already.

John Cruz NYY, OF, 17.11 – I named Cruz a target in my latest Dynasty Baseball Targets article (Patreon), and he’s getting hot again after homering in 3 of his last 6 games in rookie ball as a 17 year old. He’s now slashing .264/.350/.512 with 8 homers, 6 steals, and a 23.8%/10.5% K%/BB% in 33 games. He has the elite upside to back up the numbers with a vicious lefty swing and plus athleticism at 6’3”, 171 pounds. I actually just scooped him up in my 30 team mid season prospect blind auction. I would grab him in all league sizes at this point.

Christopher Sanchez PHI, LHP, 26.7 – 5 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER, 3/2 K/BB vs. PIT. Sanchez threw a modern day no hitter right after I talked shit about him on Halp’s Dynasty Baseball Podcast: July Mailbag (Patreon) on Friday (I hit on a ton of topics in that podcast, including Jordan Walker, Riley Greene, CJ Abrams, softball batting stances, Everson Pereira, Ezequiel Duran, and many more). The fastball averaged 90.6 MPH and he put up an 11% whiff% overall. This just isn’t a profile I’m going after, and while he’s currently showing elite control with a 4.3% BB% in 47.1 IP, he’s never shown even close to this level of control in the past. If you can cash in on him for a solid prospect return before the trade deadline based on his 2.66 ERA, I would do so.

AJ Smith-Shawver ATL, RHP, 20.7 – Shawver got called back up the bigs and scuffled a bit vs. Milwaukee, going 5 IP with 4 hits, 3 ER, and a 3/4 K/BB. The fastball averaged 94.5 MPH and he put up a 21% whiff% with a traditional 4 pitch mix. He hasn’t blown the doors off the majors and he also hasn’t been that great at Triple-A (4.44 ERA in 24.1 IP), but you have to take into account that this kid should probably still be at High-A. I love the stuff, I love Atlanta’s faith in him promoting him so fast, and I love that he is even able to hold his own against advanced competition. I’m still all in on Shawver long term.

Matt Sauer NYY, RHP, 24.6 – Nobody wants to give my man Sauer any love at all, but I still stand by that this guy is going to surprise some people down the line. He threw a gem yesterday, going 5 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER, and a 7/0 K/BB at Double-A. Here he is consistently throwing mid 90’s heat with a filthy breaking ball and a solid changeup. This was his best outing of the season and he battled arm troubles which delayed the start of his year, but I can’t be the only one to see the legit talent he has in his arm. I still like him in deeper leagues.

Hayden Birdsong SFG, RHP, 21.9 – Birdsong rose to 237th overall in my latest rankings, and he had another strong outing yesterday, going 4 IP with 5 hits, 1 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB at High-A. He’s 6’4”, 215 pounds with a plus mid 90’s fastball and a 4 pitch mix with a plus slider as his best secondary. It’s led to a 3.09 ERA and 33.1%/6.6% K%/BB% in 32 IP at the level. I’m a big fan.

Heston Kjerstad BAL, OF, 24.5 – Kjerstad has quickly become a near elite prospect befitting of his 2nd overall pick draft pedigree now that he is finally healthy, and he kept it going yesterday after smoking his 7th homer in 39 games at Triple-A. He’s been utterly obliterating the upper minors all year with 18 homers and a 64/28 K/BB in 85 games. The only question is where he fits in on a loaded Orioles team and if he gets traded before the deadline.

Parker Meadows DET, OF, 23.7 – Meadows smushed his 16th homer in 97 games at Triple-A, and he’s been trying to kick that door down to the majors of late with a .960 OPS in his last 20 games. He has a fantasy friendly profile with a plus power/speed combo (15 steals) and is entering great stash territory is any league size. His time is coming.

Owen Caissie CHC, OF, 21.0 – Caissie hit his 18th homer in 84 games at Double-A, which isn’t notable because we already know about the monster power, but what is notable is that it came with 0 K’s. In fact, he’s only struck out once in his last 18 PA. It brings his K% with the regular, non tacked ball down to 27.9% in 13 games, and like I mentioned, it’s been even better over his last 4 games. He’ll always be a high K guy, but it’s looking like the over the top K% with the pre-tacked ball was not a true measure of his talent level. His stock continues to rise as one of the top power hitting prospects in the minors.

Orelvis Martinez TOR, SS, 21.6 – Speaking of one of the top power hitting prospects in the minors, Martinez demolished his 2nd homer in 10 games since getting called up to Triple-A, and he’s maintained his much improved plate approach with a 9/6 K/BB. Even with the improved plate approach I still wouldn’t expect a high BA because he’s a perpetual low BABIP guy, but the guy is going to mash at any level.

Charlie Pagliarini SEA, 3B, 22.7 – I couldn’t do this little draft class pro debut update without mentioning Pagliarini. The 19th round pick has already cracked 3 dingers in just 5 games in rookie ball, and the power is most certainly real with him cracking 24 homers in the MAAC. He was a 22 year old senior with hit tool issues, which is why he got drafted so late, and doing it in rookie ball doesn’t mean much, but it can’t hurt to at least keep him in the back of your mind.

Jared Sundstrom SEA, OF, 22.1 – Sundstrom is another one to at least keep in mind in deep leagues. The 6’3”, 225 pound 10th round pick is already making waves at Single-A after cracking a grand slam for his first pro homer and then following that up with a 2 run bomb for his 2nd. He’s also doing it with a strong 15.4% K% in 3 games. Like Pagliarini, he’s already 22 and will need to do a lot more to become someone to really go after, but his performance warrants a mention to close out this Rundown.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on July 19, 2023July 28, 2023 by Michael Halpern

The Wednesday Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/19/23)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays (and I guess Wednesdays sometimes when I get jammed up, ha) throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Wednesday Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/19/23):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 473 JULY DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 331 JUNE DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (7/14/23)
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (6/29/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JUNE MAILBAG! (6/27/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

*I was on an extended weekend family trip on Monday and Tuesday that I thought I was going to be able to write during but it turned out I couldn’t. My bad.

Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 21.7 – When I ranked Alvarez 92nd overall on the Updated July Top 473 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), he was in the midst of slumping, but I didn’t let it scare me off him, and he’s been molten hot since. He went 2 for 3 with a 108.6 MPH homer off Lucas Gioltio and a 106.5 MPH homer of Tanner Banks. It was his 18th and 19th homers of the year in 69 games, and he now has a 7 homers with a 1.363 OPS in 11 July games. He leads all catchers in the homer category and he’s done it in far less at bats. This is just the beginning.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand CIN, 1B/3B, 23.6 – That unsurprisingly didn’t take long. Strand walloped his first MLB homer in his 2nd game with a 426 foot, 105.8 MPH bomb. How could anyone have guessed a guy who hit 20 homers with a .331 BA in 67 games at Triple-A would be good? Maybe it was that extra month or two at Triple-A that really put the finishing touches on him 😉

Bryce Elder ATL, RHP, 24.0 – In the easiest regression call of all time, Elder had his 2nd clunker in a row, going 6 IP with 12 ER and a 4/5 K/BB (5 ER in 2.2 IP last night). This is why I just never really bought into him, and while he can still be a decent fantasy starter, his 4.12 xERA has always been more indicative of his true talent level.

Lazaro Montes SEA, OF, 18.8 – Montes is officially going full breakout after cracking 2 homers yesterday and 3 homers in his last 2 games at stateside rookie ball. He’s improved on his danger zone K% of 33.2% in 2022, bringing it down to a not horrific 27.9% this year, and he’s still walking a ton with a 23.1% BB%. It’s all added up to a 145 wRC+ in 26 games. He’s right on track to become an elite power hitting prospect.

Sebastian Walcott TEX, SS, 17.3 – 3 for 4 with a double, and most importantly, he didn’t strike out once. The strikeouts are the only blemish on his profile with a 29%/4.3% K%/BB% in 15 games in stateside rookie ball, but considering he’s still only 17 years old, and his otherwise insane production (6 homers, 6 steals, and a 181 wRC+) it is very easy to overlook. He was my #1 international prospect target, hyping him hard (with a side of Joendry Vargas who is also killing it in the DSL right now) in my First Year Player Draft Target and Strategy Guide (Patreon) all the way back on January 5th, writing, “Sebastian Walcott TEX, SS, 17.1/ Joendry Vargas LAD, SS, 17.5 – I love searching for that relatively underrated international prospect. The guy who isn’t getting hyped up at the very top of the class but I think should be. It was Alexander Ramirez for me in 2020 (big hit), Maikol Hernandez in 2021 (oof), Lazaro Montes in 2022 (looking good), and in 2023, it’s Sabastian Walcott. This dude looks like a next level athlete in the sparse Youtube videos out there. It’s what made me fall in love so much with Ramirez and Montes, and that was worked out for me. Walcott even stands out relative to the other elite athletes in his class. Vargas is getting some more rankings love than Walcott, but still isn’t really talked about like the very top guys yet. He’s also a good international target.” Walcott started to get a lot more love later in the off-season, but you were already all over him early if you read my stuff.

Xavier Isaac TBR, 1B, 19.6 – Isaac has continued to quietly establish himself as a future elite hitting prospect. He demolished a 440 foot no doubter yesterday for his 3rd in 4 games and his 9th in 64 games. The GB% continues to come down to a reasonable 46.4%, and he has an excellent plate approach with a 19.9%/14.7% K%/BB%. It’s all led to a 141 wRC+. He rose to 68th overall on the June Top Top 331 Prospects Rankings (Patreon), and he’ll take another big jump in the Updated July Prospects Rankings coming next week.

Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.4 – The Southern League is in the post pre-tacked ball era, and Chourio is loving every minute of it, smoking an opposite field homer yesterday and is now 10 for 18 with 2 doubles, 2 homers and a 1/1 K/BB in 4 games with the normal ball. He’s basically picked right up from the destruction he laid last year. I wouldn’t say we should completely throw out the first half stats of all players in the Southern League, but it’s going to be mighty interesting to see the difference from the 1st half to the 2nd half. I didn’t budge off Chourio with his good, but not explosive 1st half, and now he’s exploding all over again.

Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.6 – Dominguez is getting hot again. He went deep for the 2nd time in 3 games and now has a .934 OPS with 7 steals and a 14/8 K/BB in 13 July games. It think the backlash against Dominguez’ ridiuclous hype as a 17 year old has made him underrated over the past couple years. He’s a 20 year old at Double-A with a 108 wRC+ and a nasty power/speed combo (12 homers and 25 steals in 80 games).

Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.3 – My #6 ranked prospect on the June Top 331 Rankings, Armstrong has been an extra base machine since returning from the break. He smushed his 11th homer in 64 games at Double-A yesterday and now has 3 doubles, 1 triple, and 1 homer in his last 14 AB. The power explosion is exciting considering his speed (23 steals) and defense, and while the 24%/7.7% K%/BB% isn’t great, it’s not bad either. I’m all in on Armstrong and have been since his draft year.

Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.10 – What lack of power? Carter deposited his 10th homer of the season right in the lazy river. He’s been on fire since returning from injury, slashing .354/.426/.622 with 5 homers, 2 steals (in 6 attempts) and a 18/10 K/BB in 21 games. The only real blemish on his season is a terrible stolen base success rate (11 for 18), but I think we can overlook that with the power uptick and great plate approach.

Emmanuel Rodriguez MIN, OF, 20.4 – It’s been an up and down season for Baby Bonds, and we’re now back on the upswing with his first homer since June 23rd. He has a .914 OPS in his last 6 games after going 0 for 22 in the 8 games before that. That is a microcosm of his entire season, but a 131 wRC+ with 11 homers and 11 steals in 60 games at High-A ain’t too shabby at all. The 31.8% K% and .214 BA prevents a true explosion to elite prospect status, but his value has at least held steady this year.

Ceddanne Rafaela BOS, OF, 22.3 – All Rafaela has done at Triple-A is hit dingers, and I mean that in both a good and bad way. He smoked his 5th homer in 15 games at the level, but it comes with a 25%/1.5% K%/BB%. The extremely low walk rates are a bit concerning, but he makes up for it with plus speed and plus defense. The profile isn’t that far off from Pete Crow, and he’s now knocking on the door of the bigs.

Jett Williams NYM, SS, 19.8 – Jett may be only 5’6”, but he’s starting to look pretty thick (in a good way), and he’s proving he has enough juice in his bat to make a legit impact. He launched his 5th homer in 70 games at Single-A yesterday and it comes with 29 steals and a 20.6%/19.6% K%/BB%. He only has a .243 BA because the GB% is probably a little too low for his type of profile with a 35.2% GB%, but that is a much easier fix than trying to learn how to lift the ball more. It’s a damn exciting fantasy profile and he is very easily a top 100 fantasy prospect.

Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 22.1 – Jones crushed his 11th homer in 72 games off a pretty nice looking curve that caught too much of the plate. We already know about the power and speed, and his plate approach has looked much better of late with a 24.3%/14.8% K%/BB% in his last 31 games. I would say he’s conquered High-A at this point and is just waiting for his next challenge in the upper minors.

Tyler Black MIL, 2B, 22.11 – Black was one of my first buy calls of the season, and he’s went on to just continue crushing the upper minors all year. He went 4 for 6 with a frozen rope homer yesterday and is now slashing .282/.427/.524 with 13 homers, 42 steals, and a 20.3%/16.8% K%/BB% in 70 games at Double-A. Call me crazy, but I think he’s ready for Triple-A.

Coby Mayo BAL, 3B, 21.6/Orelvis Martinez TOR, SS, 21.6 – Another day, another dinger. Mayo and Orelvis both went deep again, and it was both of their 18th homers. It was also both of their first homers at Triple-A after recently getting called up to the level. I prefer Mayo, but they are both elite power hitting prospects.

Christian Scott NYM, RHP, 24.1 – 7 IP, 6 hits, 2 ER, 8/0 K/BB at Double-A. Scott transitioned into a full time starter role after being mostly used out of the pen in his career, and he’s taken to it well with a 3.22 ERA and 28.8%/5% K%/BB% in 36.1 IP at Double-A. He’s a big dude at 6’4”, 215 pounds and the stuff is very good with a mid 90’s fastball and plus slider. He might still end up in the pen when it’s all said and done, but there is definitely mid rotation upside and he’s definitely an exciting pop up pitching prospect.

Ty Madden DET, RHP, 23.4 – 4.2 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 8/2 K/BB at Double-A. Madden has always felt a bit underrated to me. He has the size (6’3”, 215), velocity (mid 90’s heat), diverse pitch mix (fastball, slider, curve, change), and production (3.68 ERA with a 27.1%/9.5% K%/BB%) to make a legit fantasy impact. He’s not a bad low key target if you are struggling to acquire pitching as he’s also close to the bigs.

Logan Allen CLE, LHP, 24.11 – Allen is back in the majors and it didn’t take long for him to re-establish himself, going 5 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 8/1 K/BB vs. Pitt. The changeup was a whiff machine with a 50% whiff% and it led to a 29% whiff% on the day. The stuff isn’t huge with a 90.4 MPH fastball in this one, and he’s not an elite control guy, which limits his upside, but the guy knows how to pitch and can miss bats. It’s a #4-ish starter profile.

Jordan Beck COL, OF, 22.2 – Beck got the call to Double-A post break and he had his first big day at the level, going 2 for 4 with a triple and a homer. He has a 115 wRC+ in 4 games but it comes with a 46.2%/0.0% K%/BB%. It’s still obviously too small of a sample to say anything in either direction, but the one thing to watch is that K%, because we know about the big talent at 6’3”, 225 pounds with a plus power/speed combo. He was one of my targets in my Top 9 Dynasty Baseball Targets (Patreon) from a few weeks ago.

Victor Scott STL, OF, 22.3 – Double-A hasn’t slowed Scott down at all. He lined his 2nd homer in 13 games and is now slashing .333/.377/.491 with 2 homers, 6 steals, and a 12.9%/4.8% K%/BB% in 13 games at the level. He rose to 233rd overall on the latest prospect rankings, and that is set to take another big jump next week. He’s legitimately exciting with a plus contact/speed profile.

Jud Fabian BAL, OF, 22.7 – Fabian smacked his 5th homer at 20 games since getting called up to Double-A, but unfortunately his hit tool has basically been a worst case scenario with a .171 BA and 37.6% K%. That is exactly what we didn’t want to see, but he’s made adjustments in the past, and we have to give him some time to make adjustments again against upper minors pitchers.

Ivan Melendez ARI, 1B, 23.7 – Melendez got the call to Double-A, and literally all he’s done is rip dingers. He cracked 2 homers yesterday and he now has 4 homers in 3 games at the level. He wasn’t too bad at High-A either with 18 homers in 58 games. He’s certainly made up for his lackluster debut in 2022, but he still isn’t without his warts with a 33.6%/8.2% K%/BB% (30.8%/7.7% K%/BB% at Double-A). It is a bit of a Quad-A type slugger profile, and he’s also hit lefties much better than righties. A low BA, part time power bat might be the most likely outcome, but he’s left little doubt that he will be able to mash homers at any level.

Alek Manoah TOR, RHP, 25.6 – 3 IP, 3 hits, 4 ER. 0/5 K/BB vs. SDP … oof, still brutal

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on June 26, 2023June 29, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (6/26/23)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 331 JUNE DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 456 JUNE DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (6/16/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-TOP 44 ROOKIE BALL/DSL PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (6/29/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JUNE MAILBAG! (6/27/23)

Matt McLain CIN, 2B/SS, 23.9 – Elly who? Little Matty McLain, all 5’11”, 180 pounds of him is having a historic rookie season himself after going 4 for 5 with 4 extra base hits yesterday. He notched a 104.1 MPH double, 102.2 MPH homer, 101.8 MPH double, and a 94.5 MPH double. He’s now slashing .325/.380/.541 with 5 homers, 4 steals, and a 26.9%/6.4% K%/BB% in 37 games. The underlying numbers don’t look quite as nice as the surface stats (.338 xwOBA), but they are still mighty enticing with a 12.6% barrel%, 89.2 MPH EV, 12.8 degree launch, 25.2% whiff%, and 28.9 ft/sec sprint speed. That is a combination for a fantasy difference maker, and it’s high time McLain starts to get talked about with the most exciting young players in the game. He ranked 115th overall on the June Top 456 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), and that ranking is set to rise in next week’s July update.

Luis Lara MIL, OF, 18.7 – All the fun rookie ball breakouts had us starting to forget about Lara, but he had a “remember me” shot yesterday for his 2nd homer in 38 games at Single-A. Not only hasn’t he slowed down from his hot start to the year, he’s taken it up a notch in June, slashing .396/.500/.528 with 1 homer, 7 steals, and a 9/11 K/BB in his last 14 games. The plate approach is straight elite, the speed is plus, and he doesn’t have any major groundball issues (37.5% GB%), so he should get the most out of his raw power at peak. He ranked 74th overall on the Updated Top 331 Dynasty Prospects Rankings that dropped on the Patreon last week.

Ezequiel Duran TEX, 3B/2B/OF, 24.1 – 2 for 4 with 2 doubles at 110.7 MPH and 99.9 MPH. Duran is a major target for me and is the perfect buy high candidate. He’s been doing his best Adolis Garcia impression all year with power (91.1 MPH EV with 9 homers), speed (28.9 ft/sec sprint with 4 steals) and a mediocre plate approach (24.1%/4.2% K%/BB%) in 58 games. He’s an electric player and has legitimately near elite fantasy upside. You will definitely have to pay up for him, but his value hasn’t cemented yet to where he will be impossible to acquire. I would go after him.

Eury Perez MIA, RHP, 20.2 – Perez is starting to separate himself from the exciting young pitcher pack, and is now entering true ace territory. He went 6 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER and 9/1 K/BB vs. Pitt yesterday for his 5th scoreless outing in his last 6 starts. The fastball sat 97.9 MPH and the slider notched a 60% whiff%. He now has a 1.34 ERA with a 29.2%/8.1% K%/BB% in 47 IP. He will be on a strict innings cap with a career high of 78 IP, so he might not be able to carry your fantasy rotation for the rest of the season, but at only 20 years old, there are many years of dominance on the horizon. He’ll rise into the Top 50 overall on next week’s dynasty rankings.

Tyler Glasnow TBR, RHP, 29.9 – 5 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 12/1 K/BB vs. KCR. The fastball sat 96.6 MPH and he put up a 58% whiff% overall. This was Glasnow’s best start of the season and is reminder that he has the type of strikeout upside that only Spencer Strider and Jacob deGrom can even come close to matching. Even with him still shaking the rust off from Tommy John surgery, his 35.2% K% is 3rd best amongst starters with over 30 IP behind the aforementioned Strider and deGrom. I’ll take the injury risk for that type of strikeout upside.

Mason Black SFG, RHP, 23.5 – 4.1 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 5/2 K/BB at Double-A. Black is quickly becoming one of my favorite pitching prospects with an absolutely electric fastball from a funky righty arm angle. He combines that with a damn good slider and changeup as well. This was his 4th straight scoreless outing in a row to bring his season ERA down to 4.00 with a 29.7%/9% K%/BB% in 54 IP. He does look a bit reliever-ish and he’s pitched in mostly short outings, so there is bullpen risk, but I would go after him regardless.

Royce Lewis MIN, 3B/SS, 24.0 – Lewis is becoming a tough one to evaluate. After going 3 for 4 last night, the surface stats look great, slashing .333/.357/.506 with 4 homers, 1 steal, and a 26.2%/3.6% K%/BB% in 22 games, but the underlying numbers don’t look as good. He has a 86.8 MPH EV, 8.8 degree launch, .295 xwOBA, and a 30.3% whiff%. Not necessarily the best combination there. The good news is that the 28.4 ft/sec sprint speed shows the knee feels good, and it’s still too small of a sample to really pick apart the underlying numbers. I’m betting on the talent and think the underlying numbers will catch up with the surface stats, but the mediocre underlying numbers definitely points towards having some level of caution before flying him up rankings.

Coby Mayo BAL, 3B, 21.6 – Ranking Coby Mayo 8th overall on my Predicting the 2024 Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings (Patreon) back in February was one of my boldest calls, and he’s fulfilled my prophesy with an absolutely devastating season at Double-A. He’s homered in 6 of his last 11 games and is now slashing .313/.432/.609 with 14 homers and a 24.3%/14.9% K%/BB% in 67 games on the season. His 178 wRC+ leads all qualified hitters at Double-A. The dude is an absolute beast and is setting up to be one the premier power hitters in baseball for years to come.

Bryan Ramos CHW, 3B, 21.2 – Ramos got a late start to the season because of a groin strain, and he’s just now finding his groove at Double-A. He showed off his easy power yesterday blasting one out to centerfield, and he now has a 1.077 OPS with 4 homers in his last 9 games. He has a 126 wRC+ in 21 games at the level on the year. He’s been a favorite of mine for awhile now, and he’s proving it in the upper minors. He’s still underrated.

Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.9 – Carter returned from a minor wrist injury and has done nothing but rip homers since, cracking his 3rd homer in his last 7 games. It sure seems like the power outage after his early season power binge was at least partly due to the bum wrist, but that’s all in the past now. He still doesn’t project as a monster power guy, but he doesn’t have to be with plus speed and a plus plate approach. He’s an elite dynasty prospect.

Roman Anthony BOS, OF, 19.1 – The Roman Anthony breakout sure seems to have arrived. He went out and got a pitch on the outside corner to smoke his 4th homer in 11 games since getting called up to High-A. He’s barely 19 years old. He’s a smooth operator at the plate with a loose, athletic, and powerful lefty swing that is so easy to dream on. The recent power explosion combines with a mature plate approach and plus speed. His value is exploding.

Kala’i Rosario MIN, OF, 20.11 – Rosario launched his 12th homer in 62 games at High-A, and he has done nothing but mash homers since mid May, slashing .288/.409/.610 with 11 homers and a 34/22 K/BB in his last 32 games. He’s built like a rock and the power is no joke. He rose to 132nd overall on the Updated Top 331 Prospects Rankings.

Alek Thomas ARI, OF, 23.0 – 3 for 4 with a 110.3 MPH double, 99.9 MPH single, and an 88.8 MPH single. Thomas returned to the majors a man possessed, slashing .400/.400/.640 with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 4/0 K/BB in 25 PA. I named him a target back in April, but I moved off him after he got sent back down, and he’s proving I should have stayed patient. He gets the bat on the ball (20.9% K%), hits it fairly hard (89.5 MPH EV) and is fast (28.5 ft/sec sprint). Good things tends to happen on a baseball field with those combination of skills. The upside might not be super high, but I’m back in on him.

MacKenzie Gore WAS, LHP, 24.3 – 5 IP, 5 hits, 1 ER, 9/2 K/BB vs. SDP. Just call him MacKenzie “inconsistent” Gore. The fastball sat 95.3 MPH and the slider put up a 40% whiff%. He’s been alternating gems like this with mediocrity all season and it’s resulted in a 3.89 ERA and 28.5%/9.9% K%/BB% in 85.2 IP. Inconsistency is likely just a part of his profile like Blake Snell, and like Snell, the upswings mostly make the down turns stomachable.

Jairo Iriarte SDP, RHP, 21.5 – 6 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 10/0 K/BB at High-A. This was Iriarte’s best start of the season which puts an exclamation point on his breakout year. He now has a 2.95 ERA with a 29.7%/11.2% K%/BB% in 55 IP. He has the big stuff to back up the numbers with a mid 90’s fastball, potentially plus slider, and a good changeup too. Control is still issue, but Iriarte is legitimately exciting and continues to climb up rankings.

Oscar Colas CHW, OF, 24.8 – It took a minute, but Colas is finally having his first real heater of the season. He smoked his 3rd homer in 2 games and now has a .968 OPS in his last 11 games. Chicago’s RF job is still waiting for him, and he could be on tap for his 2nd chance against big league pitching, and my guess is that he will be better the 2nd time around.

Thomas Saggese TEX, 2B/3B, 21.2 – Saggese has very quietly been hitting up Double-A, and that continued yesterday, going 2 for 4 with a double and 0 K’s. He’s now slashing .312/.372/.502 with 10 homers, 6 steals, and a 22%/8.5% K%/BB% in 67 games. He doesn’t have the biggest power/speed combo, but the guy can clearly hit, and it’s not like the power/speed combo is non existent. He deserves some more hype.

Nathan Martorella SDP, 1B, 22.3 – Martorella continued his dominance at High-A with his 12th homer in 68 games. Italian Snack is just waiting for the callup to Double-A to have his Vinnie Pasquantino/Kyle Manzardo-like come up on prospect lists with plus power and a mature plate approach (17.7%/15.3% K%/BB%).

Tanner Schobel MIN, SS/2B, 21.11 – The power has arrived as Schobel went deep for the 4th time in 4 games yesterday. He was already displaying a strong plate approach (19.6%/10% K%/BB%) and speed (9 steals), so the power breakout is big to see and firmly puts him on the radar for all league sizes. He has a solid across the board profile and cracked my latest prospects rankings at #246th overall.

Carlos Jorge CIN, 2B, 19.8 – Jorge went 2 for 5 with a homer and a steal and is now slashing .286/.385/.457 with 5 homers, 25 steals, and a 21.1%/13% K%/BB% in 60 games at Single-A. Seeing the strikeout rate settle in at a very reasonable range is great to see after it rose to 26.6% in rookie ball last year. Just what Cincinnati needs, another exciting infield prospect 😉

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on June 12, 2023June 16, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (6/12/23)

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Luis Guanipa ATL, OF, 17.6 – Guanipa is the early favorite to be THE prospect breakout from the DSL. He’s hit in all 4 games and is slashing .333/.368/.778 with 2 homers, 4 steals, and a 21.1%/5.3% K%/BB%. It’s still early, but I loved him coming into the season as my #2 international target (Sebastian Walcott was my #1 target), and he received a large signing bonus with the tools to back it up. Sample is still super small and DSL stats are the most untrustworthy, but if you’re shooting for the moon, Guanipa could be your guy.

Jun-seok Shim PIT, RHP, 19.2 – Shim made his pro debut on Saturday and went nuclear, going 4 IP with 0 hits, 0 ER, and a 8/0 K/BB in the FCL (stateside rookie ball). He has an innings eater build at 6’4”, 215 pounds, and he has the big fastball befitting of his stature with mid 90’s heat. The curve is his best secondary, and he backed up his scouting report in his first outing showing good control. The ingredients are most certainly here for him to truly explode. At the minimum, keep a close watch on him, and it might be worth scooping him now.

Michael Arroyo SEA, SS/3B, 18.7 – Here’s what I wrote about Arroyo in my Top 44 Rookie Ball/DSL Prospects Rankings (Patreon), ranking him 14th overall:

“Upside – Gabriel Gonzalez

Downside – The plus hit tool slides more towards above average, and he doesn’t have the explosive tools to make up for it

Prime Projection: 82/18/73/.273/.339/.435/6″ …

The upside is winning out with him slashing .636/.692/.909 with 1 homer, 3 steals, and a 7.7%/7.5% K%/BB% in 4 games at stateside rookie. It’s a repeat of what he did in the DSL, and it sure looks like he will follow in Gabriel Gonzalez’ footsteps as a plus to double plus hit tool riser.

Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.9 – Carroll rose all the way to 3rd overall on the Updated Top 456 Dynasty Baseball Rankings that dropped Friday on the Patreon, and he didn’t let the high ranking go to his head, smacking 3 more hits on Sunday at 109.8 MPH (single), 107.4 MPH (triple), and 103.6 MPH (double). He also stole his 19th bag. He’s on pace to go .308/32/47 on the season with the underlying numbers to back it up. Only Ohtani (#1) and Acuna (#2) can match this type of production …

Wander Franco TBR, SS, 22.3 – … don’t let Franco hear me say that, because he would have every right to take that personally. He went 2 for 4 with a 371 foot bullet shot for his for his 8th homer of the year. He’s also stolen 22 bags in 63 games, which takes his elite hit tool profile with improving power to the next level. An 88.2 MPH EV with a 8 degree launch makes his power a little shakier than some of the other elite options, which keeps him 6th overall on the Updated Dynasty Rankings.

Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 21.11 – Gunnar went 3 for 5 with a 113.8 MPH, 462 foot rocket, and all of a sudden his season numbers are starting to look pretty damn good with his OPS over .800 at .804. Over his last 15 games he’s slashing .354/.404/.729 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 13/4 K/BB. He’s finally starting to run more and also get the strikeouts in check. I mean, he ain’t Corbin Carroll, that ship has sailed, but I hope you bought low when you could

Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.5 – Are you even allowed to write an article about baseball without mentioning Elly De La Cruz? Dude is the talk of the town and his elite athleticism has started to transcend just baseball circles. He collected 2 more hits yesterday, one of which came at 109.7 MPH. That’s a weakly hit dribbler for Elly. He also stole his 3rd bag. He’s now slashing .364/.481/.636 with 1 homer, 3 steals, and a 37%/18.5% K%/BB% in 27 PA. The K% is high, but the 33.3% whiff% isn’t quite in the cover your eyes territory, and he’s walking a ton too. It’s just about as good of an MLB debut as we could have hoped for. He ranked 23rd overall on the Updated Rankings. He deserves a truly elite return in trades.

Rayner Arias SFG, OF, 17.2 – The plus bloodlines win again. Arias comes from a baseball family and he’s showing off that high baseball IQ and advanced beyond his years DNA, slashing .438/.550/.875 with 2 homers, 1 steal, and a 10%/20% K%/BB% in 4 DSL games. He’s not just a high IQ guy though, he’s also a projectable 6’1”, 180 pounds with a big righty swing that has clear power potential. He looks like a good one.

Gabriel Lara NYY, OF, 17.6 – Lara is another early DSL pop up, slashing .438/.550/.875 with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 10%/15% K%/BB% in 4 games. He has truly elite speed with a good feel to hit coming from a quick, compact lefty swing. He’s only 5’9”, but he’s not a skinny nothing, he definitely has some muscle. Carlos Jorge and Jonatan Clase would be the upside here, maybe even with a better hit tool.

Keiner Delgado NYY, 2B/3B, 19.5 – Delgado’s truly elite plate approach is transferring to stateside rookie ball, slashing .333/.538/.556 with 1 homer, 4 steals, and an 11.5%/30.8% K%/BB% in 5 games. He remains a year older than optimal, and while age for level is important, you don’t want to be a total slave to it. He’s also a small guy at 5’8”, so the power upside isn’t huge. Regardless, he’s an excellent athlete with the potential for an elite plate approach with speed and some pop.

Enmanuel Tejeda NYY, SS, 18.5 – Tejada is also backing up his strong DSL showing in 2022, slashing .438/.591/.813 with 2 homers, 4 steals, and a 22.7%/22.7% K%/BB% in 5 games in stateside rookie. He’s not a monster tools guy, but he has the potential to be that solid across the board contributor at peak.

Abraham Nunez CHW, OF, 17.3 – Okay, enough with these little guy breakouts. Nunez is a projectable 6’3”, 170 pounds with baseball bloodlines (his dad played in the majors) and good athleticism. He’s slashing .500/.647/.917 with 1 homer, 3 steals, and a 11.8%/29.4% K%/BB% in 4 DSL games. He surely checks a lot of boxes. Keep an eye out.

Luis Baez HOU, OF, 19.5 – I couldn’t do this mini Rookie Ball Rundown without mentioning the current rookie ball home run leader, Luis Baez. He’s jacked 4 homers in just 5 games in stateside rookie coming off a season where he jacked 9 homers in 58 games in the DSL. He has the raw power to back up the numbers at 6’1”, 215 pounds with a powerful righty swing. The hit tool is still a bit of a question mark with a poor 25.2%/6.3% K%/BB% in 2022, but it’s been better so far in 2023 (20.8%/16.7%). He’s also a year older than optimal and is more physically mature than most of his competition. But hitting bombs like this will certainly get you on the radar.

Jack Suwinski PITT, OF, 24.10 – Everybody was looking to put Suwinski in the grave, but he refused to comply, continuing his re-reemergence yesterday on a 2 for 4 day with a 108.6 MPH homer. He has 6 homers with a 1.142 OPS over his last 14 games. The strikeout rate is still too high at 32% and he isn’t running as much as optimal, but the guy can mash.

Braxton Garrett MIA, LHP, 25.10 – 5.1 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 9/1 K/BB vs. CHW. Garrett’s been the epitome of the crafty lefty this year, throwing a 6 pitch mix without any of the pitches cracking even 90 MPH (89.9 MPH sinker), but it gets the job done with an enticing 29.4% whiff% and 4.9% BB%. He’s not exactly a world beater with a 4.10 ERA and 4.73 xERA in 63.2 IP, but the guy knows the art of pitching, With Trevor Rogers on the comeback trail, Miami will have a decision to make on their rotation, because they don’t have a spot for him right now.

Nolan Jones COL, OF, 25.1 – Who would have thunk the 24/25 year old hitting for a 175 wRC+ at Triple-A, and who has produced his entire career, would actually be good? Nice of Colorado to actually get around to playing him, and surprise surprise, he continues to be good. He went 2 for 4 with a 111.6 MPH homer yesterday and is now slashing .360/.407/.680 with 4 homers, 4 steals, and a 31.5%/7.4% K%/BB% in 15 games. Most surprising is how much he’s running, and he has the above average speed to back it up with a 27.9 ft/sec sprint. There is still hit tool risk, but the very reasonable 26.9% whiff% is comforting it won’t get too crazy. I’m buying.

Ezequiel Tovar COL, SS, 21.10 – Tovar has slowly but surely pulled himself out of that early season hole he dug himself, and his 2 for 4 day with a 424 foot homer off Blake Snell has finally brought his season OPS over .700 to .707. Over his last 21 games he’s slashing .333/.375/.533 with 2 homers, 2 steals, and a 19/5 K/BB. I’m not gonna lie, the power/speed combo is still lacking, and the plate approach has been mediocre at best, so I’m not exactly buying, but he’s certainly finding his groove against MLB pitchers.

Zach Neto LAA, SS, 22.4 – Neto has just been laying down a rock solid foundation over his first 51 MLB games, and now he’s ready to build on it, blowing up yesterday with a 2 homer game. One was hit at 106.9 MPH and the other at 105.9 MPH. It’s actually quite remarkable what he’s doing against MLB pitching considering how quickly he was rushed through the minors, and he didn’t even come from a major conference in college. An 89.6 MPH EV with an 11.4 degree launch and 18.9% K% is the exact across the board profile I expected when I ranked him 3rd overall on my FYPD Rankings this off-season.

J.D. Martinez LAD, DH, 35.9 – 0 for 4 with 0 homers. I thought it was notable that he actually had a bad day, because he hasn’t had many since I named him a player to target in my Top Dynasty Baseball Targets (Patreon), ripping 7 homers in 15 games since then. His .400 xwOBA is in the top 3% of the league and his 93 MPH EV is a career high. Dodgers strike again.

Luis Matos SFG, OF, 21.4 – Let’s just pretend 2022 never happened. Matos has picked up from where his 2021 season ended, cracking 2 more homers yesterday at Triple-A on a 3 for 5 day. And just check out the vicious swings he used to unload on those two dingers. He’s not a huge guy, but he definitely packs a punch. He’s now blowing the doors off Triple-A, slashing .396/.434/.660 with 6 homers, 6 steals, and a 7%/6.1% K%/BB%. He might have officially made it to his destination from that elite prospect beeline he was on in 2021 with power, speed, and elite contact. A callup to the majors could be in the cards in the 2nd half.

Junior Caminero TBR, 3B, 19.11 – Caminero sliced his 2nd homer in 12 games since getting the call to Double-A. He has the type of power where he doesn’t even need to get all of it to hit it out. Double-A has definitely slowed him down a bit with a 104 wRC+, but the kid is still 19 years old. He’s not the perfect prospect with a mediocre plate approach, relatively elevated groundball rates, and limited speed, but the guy is a masher no matter how you slice it.

Termarr Johnson PIT, 2B/SS, 19.0 – Johnson hit an absolute no doubter to the tiki lounge in deep centerfield for his 3rd homer in 37 games at Single-A. It hasn’t exactly been the season we wanted to see from the uberhyped prospect with a 32.3% K%, but he still has a 126 wRC+ despite the swing and miss. I warned the hit tool wasn’t as good as advertised this off-season, so I wasn’t completely caught off guard by this, but I’m still buying the talent. He turned 19 yesterday, and I respect a player who finds ways to produce even when they aren’t completely locked in yet. Something tells me he’s about to hit his first real groove of the season. Don’t sell low.

Jake Eder MIA, LHP, 24.8 – Eder made his long awaited season debut earlier this month coming off Tommy John surgery and a broken foot, and he looked good in his 2nd outing on Saturday, going 4 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 3/1 K/BB at Single-A on a rehab assignment. The slide piece is still absolutely filthy and the fastball sat in the low to mid 90’s range. He was cracking Top 100’s before going down with the injury, and he has the potential to get back there if he keeps performing when he gets back to Double-A.

Anthony Solometo PIT, LHP, 20.5 – 4 IP, 5 hits, 0 ER, 7/0 K/BB at High-A. How can you not love watching this guy pitch? He now has a 2.30 ERA with a 29.1%/10.7% K%/BB% in 58.2 IP on the season, and I think he’s now officially knocking on the door of Top 100 status if he isn’t there already. I’ve been targeting him since before he even got drafted, and I’m still buying hard.

Noah Schultz CHW, LHP, 19.8 – My top pitching target in this year’s first year player draft class, Schultz finally made his season debut earlier this month, and it was worth the wait. The guy looks like Baby Randy Johnson on the mound at 6’9”, 220 pounds with a mid 90’s fastball, a potentially plus slider and developing change. He’s dominated in his 2 short outings, going 4 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB. The control has looked pretty good too. I implore you to get in now. He’s about to blow up.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 15, 2023May 19, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/15/23)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
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Christopher Morel CHC, 2B/OF, 23.10 – They say good things come to those who wait, and the Morel owners who waited are now enjoying good things as he jacked his 3rd homer in 21 PA. He has a 1.238 OPS with a 92.4 MPH EV, 1 steal, and most importantly, the whiff% is all the way down to a reasonable 28.9%. He was one of my favorite targets this off-season, and I sure as hell waited while bad vets got the nod over him even while he was destroying spring pitching and destroying Triple-A. Come to think of it, the people who say “good things come to those who wait” are usually the ones screwing you over, but Morel refused to be held down for long, and his fantasy owners are now reaping the benefits. He checked in at #227 on the Updated May Top 433 Dynasty Baseball Rankings that just dropped on the Patreon last week, and that number will keep rising if he keeps performing and locks in playing time.

Jordan Walker STL, 3B/OF, 21.0 – Jordan Walker owners were given immediate gratification with him making the team out of camp and look how that worked out for them. He had mediocre results and then very quickly got sent back to down to Triple-A to work on his launch angle. Let’s check in to see how that launch is looking after a 3 for 5 day yesterday: 28.6% FB%. Not great, and it’s led to a 60 wRC+ in 15 games at Triple-A. He’s still crushing the ball and the plate approach is good, so I wouldn’t be worried, but the Cardinals very publicly announced what they wanted to see from him, and they quite clearly haven’t seen it yet. I’m guessing they will call him back up eventually regardless of his launch, but it would have been easier if he was able to successfully make that adjustment.

Alex Kirilloff MIN, 1B/OF, 25.7 – Kirilloff owners have been waiting for damn near 4 years, and quite frankly, you have the patience of a saint if you kept him on your roster all this time, but now that saintly patience is paying off. He went 2 for 6 yesterday and now has a 1.309 OPS with 2 homers, a 93.1 MPH EV and a 17.9%/21.4% K%/BB% in 28 PA in the majors. He looks healthy and as long as he stays that way, he’ll likely keep raking. I’m buying.

Brandon Pfaadt ARI, RHP, 24.7 – Tom Petty said the waiting is the hardest part, but he obviously never owned Pfaadt in dynasty, because watching him get shelled once he did get the call has surely been the hardest part. The waiting was the easy part in hindsight. But he had his best MLB outing yesterday, going 5 IP with 1 hit, 1 ER, and a 5/3 K/BB vs. SFG. The fastball sat 93.4 MPH and he induced weak contact with an 83.5 MPH EV against. It’s still been super rough overall with an 8.59 ERA in 14.2 IP, and all of his pitches are getting destroyed. I can’t lie, it’s a little concerning as he doesn’t necessarily have stuff, but really nothing you can do but keep waiting.

Zach Neto LAA, SS, 22.2 – Fuck waiting. Sometimes you have to take what you want, and that is why Neto was my 3rd ranked FYPD prospect, because I knew he would be fast tracked to the bigs. But even I didn’t expect it to happen so fast, and considering the rush job LA put on him, he’s been pretty damn good. He went 1 for 3 with a 100.6 MPH double off none other than a 98.9 MPH Emmanuel Clase fastball. He now has a 15.7% K%, 89.3 MPH EV, 7.9% Barrel%, and a .326 xwOBA. He’s setting a very strong foundation, and the best is almost certainly yet to come.

Matt McLain CIN, 2B/SS, 23.8 – Strand and Elly owners will have to keep waiting, because Yippee-ki-yay, it’s McLain time. He’s been out of his mind at Triple-A, slashing .348/.474/.710 with 12 homers, 10 steals, and a 19.7%/16.8% K%/BB% in 38 games, earning every bit of this callup. And I don’t see him going anywhere as long he performs decently well. He’s shown some hit tool issues in the past and he’s not a huge raw power guy, but he’s a pick up in all league sizes if he happens to still be out there on your wire.

Tanner Bibee CLE, RHP, 24.2 – Can I shoehorn this waiting theme into one more player … hmmmmmm … I got nothing. Bibee owners waited the appropriate amount of time and he’s been impressive from the get go. He went 7.2 IP with 2 hits, 1 ER, and 7/2 K/BB vs. LAA. The fastball sat 95.2 MPH and he put up a 29% whiff% overall. Bibee is well on his way to becoming a Top 100 dynasty asset with a 3.22 ERA and 25%/4.5% K%/BB% in 22.1 IP. He currently sits at #165 on the Updated Dynasty Rankings.

Louie Varland MIN, RHP, 25.4 – 6.1 IP, 4 hits, 3 ER, 7/1 K/BB vs. CHC. Varland was my first “full breakout alert” in the Dynasty Rundowns back in early April, and there wasn’t much waiting after that as he quickly got called up to the majors. He hasn’t necessarily exploded with a 4.30 ERA in 23 IP, but the stuff looks great led by a 95.1 MPH fastball, and so does the 28.4%/6.3% K%/BB%. I still think he’s a bit underrated.

James Wood WAS, OF, 20.7 – Wood went 3 for 3 with 2 doubles, a dinger, and a 0/2 K/BB at High-A as he’s now officially destroying the level with 5 homers, 5 steals, and a 137 wRC+ in 31 games. The one quibble is that the K% is all the way up to 29%. Strikeouts were always going to be a part of his game at 6’6”, and he can thrive even with a high K rate, but it does add risk, and it will be interesting to see if he can keep it in check when he gets to Double-A.

Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 22.0 – Jones is the older version of Wood. He went 3 for 5 with 2 doubles, 1 steal, and most importantly, 0 K’s. He’s crushing High-A with 6 homers, 9 steals, and a 143 wRC+, but that 32.2%/5.8% K%/BB% is pretty rough. He just turned 22 yesterday (Happy Birthday, Spence), so he’s a young 22, but he’ll likely need to make legitimate hit tool and plate approach improvements if he wants his power/speed combo to shine in the majors. He was my 5th ranked FYPD prospect, and I still love him, but we can’t completely ignore those K/BB numbers as much as I want to.

Jacob Melton HOU, OF, 22.9 – Melton cracked his 5th homer at High-A and is doing what an advanced college bat is supposed to do in the lower minors. Along with the 5 homers, he has 12 steals with a 26%/19% K%/BB% and a 136 wRC+ in 22 games. We just gotta watch that K%, but the power/speed combo is very legit. He’s exciting.

Gavin Cross KC, OF, 22.2 – Cross is doing whatever the opposite of “doing what an advanced college bat is supposed to do in the lower minors,” as he’s looked terrible at High-A even after going 2 for 4 yesterday. He has a 62 wRC+ with a 32.8%/7.3% K%/BB% in 31 games. The hit tool was the one iffy part of his game coming out of the draft, and that’s playing out right now. We saw him molten hot last year to start his pro career, so I wouldn’t completely overreact to the still small sample, but it’s simply not what you want to see.

Marco Luciano SFG, SS, 21.7 – Lucky Luciano launched his 2nd bomb in 10 games at Double-A, but it came on a 1 for 5 with 3 K day. He now has a 50 wRC+ with a 40% K% at the level, and it just feels like the shine continues to come off that formerly pristine prospect hype. He’s still a good prospect, but I’m not sure he really stands out anymore, although maybe we have to give him some more time to shake the rust off as he’s coming off a stress fracture in his back this off-season.

Kyren Paris LAA, 2B/SS, 21.5 – Paris was a named target for me this off-season, and he’s been a beast all season at Double-A. He went 2 for 3 with his 9th homer on a beautiful swing yesterday. He’s now slashing .239/.390/.487 with 9 homers, 10 steals, and a 31.9%/17.7% K%/BB% in 31 games. The power has taken a major step forward, which is huge to see considering his double plus speed. The hit tool is still a major concern which prevents his hype from truly exploding, but this is an extremely high upside fantasy player who still gets almost no love. I’m still buying despite the risk.

Justyn-Henry Malloy DET, 3B/OF, 23.4 – 1 for 2 with a homer and 3 walks. The hard hitting Malloy is now slashing .323/.455/.526 with 7 homers and a 24.2%/17.6% K%/BB% in 38 games at Triple-A and I can’t imagine it is much longer before he gets the call. I think he’s likely to be a better real life hitter than fantasy, but that doesn’t mean he can’t make a fantasy impact too. He’s a great stash in any league.

Luis Matos SFG, OF, 21.3 – Matos drilled his 3rd homer and he did it with a swing that looks ready made for the majors. Quick and powerful. He’s bouncing back in a big way from a down 2022, slashing .304/.398/.443 with 3 homers, 9 steals, and a 9%/12.8% K%/BB% in 31 games at Double-A. A few more bombs like that and his formerly elite prospect hype could sneak back up on us. He’s a major riser this year regardless.

Ryan Bliss ARI, 2B/SS, 24.5 – Bliss has lived up to his name and then some with his performance at Double-A. He went 3 for 6 with a double, homer, and 2 steals yesterday, and is now slashing a blissful .406/.433/.672 with 6 homers, 11 steals, and a 20.1%/4.5% K%/BB% in 29 games. He’s a particularly small guy at only 5’6”, but check out this swing on yesterday’s dinger, he definitely has some pop in there. The plate approach is mediocre and so is the power, which makes it hard to buy in too hard, but how can you argue with that performance.

Spencer Arrighetti HOU, RHP, 23.5 – 7 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 9/2 K/BB at Double-A. Arrighetti was a target of mine this off-season, and while he struggled to start the year, he now has a 0.53 ERA with a 19/6 K/BB in his last 17 IP. He sure looks like he’s finding his rhythm, and like most Astros pitching prospects for some weird reason, he flies way under the radar.

Jackson Rutledge WAS, RHP, 24.2 – 6 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 5/0 K/BB at Double-A. Rutledge has been performing rock solidly all year with a 2.72 ERA in 39.2 IP, and he has the big stuff to back it up. I still don’t love the 23.7%/9% K%/BB%, he’s been injury prone in his career, and that ERA probably has some good luck involved, but there is a clear path to a rotation spot with Washington’s depleted roster. Not the worst stash if you missed out on the more hyped recently called up pitching prospects.

Cory Lewis MIN, RHP, 22.7 – Lewis was drafted in the 9th round last year, but he’s performing like anything but a 9th rounder after throwing 5.2 perfect innings with 7 K’s. He has a 2.43 ERA with a 33.3%/6.8% K%/BB% in 29.2 IP at Single-A. He throws a low 90’s fastball, but it has plus spin, and at 6’5”, 220 pounds, it gets great extension too. He rounds out of the repertoire with a power breaker he throws in the dirt, a slower one he can throw for strikes, and a lesser used changeup. Definitely an intriguing pop up pitching prospect to at least keep an eye on.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 1, 2023May 5, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/1/23)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 433 APRIL DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
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-7 EARLY SEASON DYNASTY STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS

Carlos Jorge CIN, 2B, 19.7 – The little man discount is one of the most reliable discounts in prospecting, and there is a small army of little prospects ready to overthrow the Heightriarchy. The 5’10”, 160 pound Jorge is leading the charge after a huge day at the dish yesterday, going 4 for 7 with a double, homer, steal, and 0/1 K/BB in a doubleheader. He’s now slashing .323/.408/.532 with 2 homers, 5 steals, and a 25.4%/11.3% K%/BB% in 18 games at Single-A. He’s never put up a wRC+ under 151 or had an OBP under .400 in his 3 year career, but because he’s not 6’3”, he immediately gets discounted. Jose Ramirez, Mookie Betts, Wander Franco, Corbin Carroll, Cedric Mullins, Francisco Lindor, Randy Arozarena, Ozzie Albies, Jose Altuve, and many more have all proven you don’t have to be 6 feet or over to be an elite MLB player. Down with the Heightriarchy.

Luisangel Acuna TEX, SS/2B, 21.1 – Not even his older brother, Ronald, could protect Luisangel from the little guy bullying that he’s had to face his entire career on prospect lists. The 5’8” Acuna stole 3 bags yesterday, and he’s been handling his business at Double-A all year, slashing .319/.369/.436 with 1 homer, 10 steals, and a 20.2%/7.7% K%/BB% in 21 games. The power hasn’t come yet, but keeping that K rate in check is huge to see, and he’s a base stealing machine.

Jonatan Clase SEA, OF, 20.11 – The 5’9”, 150 pound Clase is trying to shatter that glass ceiling with Jorge and Acuna. He went 1 for 4 with a steal and 1/2 K/BB yesterday and is now slashing .337/.455/.723 with 7 homers, 16 steals, and a 26.7%/16.8% K%/BB% in 20 games at High-A. Acuna, Jorge, and Clase were all named targets for me this off-season because I don’t see height. Clase cracked my Top 100 in the Updated Top 324 Dynasty Prospects Rankings that dropped last week on my Patreon.

Termarr Johnson PIT, 2B/SS, 18.11 – The 5’8”, 175 pound Johnson actually did get the respect he deserved in prospect rankings, but I was actually a little skeptical of how good that hit tool really was, predicting in the Predicting the Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings that “Johnson’s hit tool at Single-A won’t be as good as the hype.” He went 1 for 3 with a 2/0 K/BB yesterday and now has a 41.2% K% and .214 BA in 5 games. It’s still a super super small sample, and I still love him even if I do think the hit tool was maybe a little overhyped, but the slow start does play into my fears from the off-season.

Harry Ford SEA, C, 20.1 – The 5’10” Ford might not be tall, but he is a built like a tank, and he’s hitting like a tank. He went 2 for 6 with a double yesterday and is now slashing .282/.453/.493 with 3 homers, 5 steals, and a 18.9%/23.2% K%/BB% in 19 games at High-A. This coming off his great WBC for Great Britain which nearly got him knighted. He’s splitting his time between catcher and DH, and at this point, I almost hope he gets moved off catcher to let his bat shine. He has the speed and athleticism to play elsewhere.

Adael Amador COL, SS, 20.1 – Amador feels like he is part of the little man brigade, but he actually checks in at 6’0” on the dot. He got a late start to the season, but he’s starting to cook after drilling his first 2 homers of the year at High-A in 11 games. His elite contact rates have transferred to the level with a 11.3% K%, and so has his speed with 4 steals, but his high walk rates haven’t yet with a 3.8% BB%. His 56.8% GB% is probably too high to ever be a true power hitter, but he’s a high probability big leaguer with a strong across the board profile.

Denzel Clarke OAK, OF, 23.0 – Forget everything I just said about height. Now this is what a ballplayer is supposed to look like at 6’5”, 220 pounds with towering power and elite athleticism. This is the scout’s dream. Clark debuted on April 25th at Double-A and has done nothing but rake. He homered yesterday on a 3 for 5 day and now has 4 homers with a 372 wRC+ in 4 games. Most importantly, the K rate has been solid with a 26.3%/15.8% K%/BB%. If he can maintain even a below average K rate, oh boy, because this is a huge man with huge talent and nothing but opportunity in Oakland, er, Las Vegas.

Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 22.0 – 1 IP, 5 hits, 8 ER, 2/2 K/BB at Triple-A. Tampa’s front office are either magic yogi’s who can see into the future and demoted Bradley before he could have this blow up in the majors. Or they are humans who undeservedly sent a kid down who was killing it in the majors, and being yanked around like that messed with his performance. I choose to believe it is the former.

Logan Allen CLE, LHP, 24.7 – 5 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 8/2 K/BB vs. BOS. The fastball sat 91.9 MPH and he induced tons of weak contact with a 85.9 EV against. Allen has pitched to ace levels in his MLB debut with a 2.45 ERA and 35.6%/6.7% K%/BB%, but there are signs he is pitching above his head. The 28.7% whiff% is not as big (although still good) and the 4.54 xERA is much higher than the ERA. He also didn’t display this level of control in his minor league career. Don’t get me wrong, it’s still a super encouraging MLB debut, but I wouldn’t expect him to keep it up to this level.

Nick Frasso LAD, RHP, 24.5 – 4 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 4/2 K/BB at Double-A. LA’s pitching logjam be damned, Frasso is one of my favorite pitching targets in the minors. He now has a 1.23 ERA with a 34.9%/5.8% K%/BB% in 22 IP. He has a nasty, plus 3 pitch mix and he’s like a lefty with a funky delivery, expect he throws righty, if you know what I mean. There is certainly risk he ends up in the pen because of circumstances, injury risk, and lack of innings in his career, but I just can’t ignore how high his upside is. I named him a target in my Top Dynasty Baseball Targets that dropped on Friday on the Patreon.

Rayne Doncon LAD, 2B/SS, 19.7 – Doncon went 4 for 4 with a double, steal, and a 430 foot bomb. He’s now getting into position to truly explode up rankings, slashing .262/.344/.464 with 5 homers, 2 steals, and a 25%/11.5% K%/BB% in 20 games. He has an explosive swing that screams big time power and has shown a good feel to hit his entire career. Now is the time to get in on him if you haven’t already.

Elijah Green WAS, OF, 19.4 – Elly 2.0 has arrived. Green smashed a homer in back to back games for his first 2 of the year to go along with 8 steals and a 48.1% K% in 17 games at Single-A. He’s even rawer than we expected, but the talent is so huge it’s worth being patient for the hit tool to come around.

Samuel Zavala SDP, OF, 18.9 – Zavala broke out of his early season slump in a huge way, going 4 for 5 with a homer and a steal. All of a sudden his wRC+ is up to 106 as an 18 year old in 18 games at Single-A. It’s also a reminder of how we are still in the small sample size part of the season. One big game can take a guy from struggling hard, to being an above average hitter overnight. He’s still the phenom we thought he was.

Cam Collier CIN, 3B, 18.5 – Speaking of 18 year olds performing above average in full season ball, Collier ripped his first homer at the level on a 2 for 8 day to bring his season wRC+ up to 116 in 14 games. The 26.7% K% is a tad higher than optimal, and so is his 58.6% GB%, so while he’s not going full breakout, he’s proving his FYPD hype was deserved.

Colin Barber HOU, OF, 22.4 – Just call him high cholesterol, because Barber is the quietest killer in the minor leagues. He cracked his 2nd homer in 15 games at Double-A to bring his season wRC+ up to 145. Also, just look at his man’s quads. If this was fantasy football twitter, our heads would be exploding.

Tyler Locklear SEA, 1B, 22.5 – Locklear was drafted 58th overall as a bat first prospect, and that bat is rolling right through the lower minors after he cracked 2 homers yesterday. He has 4 homers with a 21.%/9.6% K%/BB% and 146 wRC+ in 20 games at High-A. He’s played exclusively 1B this year, so the bat will have to hit it’s ceiling to get playing time in the majors. I think the bat is real, but I probably wouldn’t get too excited until he’s doing it in the upper minors.

Cayden Wallace KC, 3B, 21.9 – Wallace went 2 for 8 with a dinger last night, and he’s another moderately hyped 2nd round pick who is handling his business at High-A, slashing .306/.414/.542 with 3 homers, 3 steals, and a 20.7%/14.9% K%/BB% in 20 games. Again, doing it at High-A doesn’t truly explode their ranking, but they are trending up and they should get the chance to prove themselves at Double-A in the not too distant future.

Jonny DeLuca LAD, OF, 24.9 – DeLuca was one of the many big risers in the Updated Top 324 Prospect Rankings, and he’s not slowing down after going 3 for 5 with his 6th homer in 20 games at Double-A. He could be that next sneaky, older prospect that comes out of nowhere for the Dodgers.

Daylen Lile WAS, OF, 20.4 – The 47th overall pick in the 2021 Draft, Lile missed all of 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but I kept the faith on him just barely by ranking him 1,012 overall on the off-season Top 1,000. I also gave you a heads up that he looked pretty good in his spring debut. That faith has been rewarded after he went 3 for 5 with a homer yesterday. He’s now slashing .333/.409/.632 with 3 homers, 5 steals, and a 19.7%/10.6% K%/BB% in 14 games at Single-A. He’s 20 at Single-A, but we can give him a pass for that because of the missed development time. Now is probably the time to get in on him.

Darell Hernaiz OAK, SS/2B/3B, 21.8 – Oakland was happy to scoop Hernaiz off the back of the overstuffed middle infield prospect Orioles truck, and he’s delivering after going 3 for 5 with a dinger last night. He’s slashing .313/.366/.453 with 2 homers, 5 steals, and a 20.8%/8.3% K%/BB% as a 21 year old at Double-A. Oakland is the perfect spot for him with playing time galore available.

Kyle Harrison SFG, LHP, 21.8 – 3.2 IP, 0 hits, 1 ER, 7/4 K/BB at Triple-A. Harrison has more walks than innings pitched, and not by a little either with 21 walks in 15.2 IP. That is extreme to say the least. The stuff is so nasty it has still resulted in only a 4.02 ERA and 35.1% K%, and 15.2 IP is still a small sample. His value is dropping because the risk is getting even higher, but in general, he is a hold for me. Let’s see if he can work through these early season control problems, as he just needs to maintain below average control to thrive.

Carson Whisenhunt SFG, LHP, 22.5 – Whisenhunt got the call to High-A and was lights out, going 4 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB. The fastball was sitting in the mid 90’s and the changeup was nasty as usual. Here are the highlights from his start. The breaking ball can definitely look a little dinky, and it’s still the lower minors, but it could be time to start getting excited. He looks like a good one.

Tsung-Che Cheng PIT, SS, 21.10 – If feels fitting to end this Rundown like we started it, with the smallest prospect of them all standing at 5’7″, 154 pounds. But his production has been anything but small (never had a wRC+ under 129 in his 3 year career), and he’s officially killing it again after going 2 for 5 with a homer yesterday. Cheng is now slashing .275/.359/.551 with 4 homers, 7 steals, and a 19%/11.4% K%/BB% in 18 games at the age appropriate High-A. His power is ticking up this year which he combines with plus speed and a good feel to hit. He also plays a solid SS, which could get his bat on the field. He’s still more of a deeper league pickup, but he’s one to keep your eye on at least.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on April 17, 2023April 23, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/17/23)

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Zach Neto LAA, SS, 22.2 – My 3rd overall FYPD prospect got the call to the bigs on Saturday, and his proximity to the majors was a major reason for his high ranking. Here is what I wrote about him in my FYPD Target & Strategy Guide, “Neto is a fast moving, relatively safe bat who will contribute in every category. He’s one of those picks where he’ll quickly be contributing for LA and you’ll be scratching your head on why you just didn’t scoop this guy. LA has literally kept the SS position open for him.” He’s currently 0 for 8, and I’m not gonna lie, even I’m surprised they called him up already. I assumed he would be a candidate for a 2nd half callup and thought I was aggressive in even thinking that. To call him up already is kinda nuts, but let’s get crazy. He’s not the type to win you any one category, but he’ll contribute in all of them.

Ryan Clifford HOU, OF, 19.9 – Let’s keep the FYPD theme going by checking in on my top later round target, Ryan Clifford. He went 0 for 5 yesterday, but that is just a small blip on his otherwise great start to the year. He’s slashing .357/.550/.500 with 1 homer and a 25%/22.5% K%/BB% in 8 games at Single-A. It’s good for a 203 wRC+. He’s setting up to be George Valera 2.0 and is backing up my high ranking of him in the early going.

Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.7 – 2 for 4 with a 107.5 MPH double and 106 MPH homer off Sandy Alcantara. Carroll is officially living up to the hype with a .288 BA, 4 homers, 6 steals, and a .842 OPS in 60 PA. He has the underlying numbers to back it up too, other than not walking a single time yet, but he was a walk machine in the minors, so I’m not too concerned. He’s a truly elite dynasty asset and should not be traded for anything less than a monstrous return.

Brett Baty NYM, 3B, 23.5 – Baty finally got the call and will make his season debut today against the Dodgers. It’s a complete head scratcher on why he didn’t break camp with the team to begin with, but better late than never. He played angry at Triple-A with 5 homers, a 21.4%/16.7% K%/BB% and 239 wRC+ in 9 games, and he’s the type of advanced hitter that could hit the ground running in the majors

Garrett Whitlock BOS, RHP, 26.10 – 7 IP, 3 hits, 1 hit, 5/2 K/BB vs. LAA. Despite only 5 K’s, he put up a 33% whiff% on the back of his slider which dominated with a 65% whiff%. The sinker hasn’t been quite as big this year with it down 1.5 MPH to 93.8 MPH, but he got it up to 96.8 MPH, so there is more in the tank when he needs it. Most importantly, he looks fully healthy coming off off-season hip surgery and I think the best is yet to come as he gets further away from that injury. He’s a buy for me, ranking 194th overall on the Updated Top 432 April Dynasty Baseball Rankings that just hit the Patreon last week.

Reid Detmers LAA, LHP, 23.9 – 6.1 IP, 6 hits, 2 ER, 7/1 K/BB vs. BOS. The fastball sat 94.6 MPH and he put up a 21% whiff% overall. He hasn’t gone full breakout like we hoped, but there is a clear uptick in stuff, and with it, an uptick in strikeout upside. If he continues to command his stuff like he did yesterday, the full breakout could still be in the cards.

Kumar Rocker TEX, RHP, 23.4 – Rocker had his 2nd straight dominant outing, going 3 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 4/1 K/BB at High-A. He now has a 0.00 ERA with a 12/1 K/BB in 8 IP. The mid 90’s high fastball followed by the fall off the table slider has befuddled lower minors hitters. While that is what he should do against inferior competition, it’s still nice to see coming off the poor AFL and his shoulder issues.

Bryan Woo SEA, RHP, 23.2 – 4 IP, 3 hits, 2 ER, 5/1 K/BB at Double-A. Woo hinted at going full breakout in the AFL, and he’s now carrying it over into Double-A with a 2.25 ERA and 12/2 K/BB in 8 IP over 2 outings. He has such an easy delivery, almost nonchalantly flinging a mid to upper 90’s rising fastball that minor league hitters have no shot at. The secondaries aren’t quite as refined and he doesn’t have pinpoint control, which probably keeps him more in the mid-rotation range, but it’s easily a Top 100 prospect profile and is worth a pick up in any size league.

Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 23.5 – 5 IP, 6 hits, 4 ER, 8/2 K/BB vs. CHW. The fastball sat 96.2 MPH and he put up a 27% whiff% on the back of his changeup (47% whiff%). He hasn’t pitched all that well with a 6.91 ERA in 14.1 IP, but everything is still pointing towards a breakout when he gets his footing. Big stuff. 5 pitch mix. Missing bats. It’s only a matter of time.

Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.7 – The power was the final tool we were waiting for, and we aren’t waiting anymore as Carter jacked his 3rd homer in 5 games at Double-A. He now has a 204 wRC+ in 9 games. The 25% K% is a little higher than optimal, but he’s still running a .389 BA. He’s locking in his at least average to above average across the board profile, and there is legit star upside if it truly all comes together.

Tyler Black MIL, 2B, 22.8 – Black is going gangbusters at Double-A after cracking his 2nd homer last night. He’s now slashing .286/.483/.619 with 2 homers, 6 steals, and a 13.8%/20.7% K%/BB% in 7 games. If the power is truly ticking up, he’s going to be mighty dangerous because the hit tool, plate approach, and speed are all certainly there. He’s an early season riser.

Luis Garcia WAS, 2B/SS, 22.10 – 1 for 4 with a 107.7 MPH bomb for his 2nd homer in 3 games. The underlying numbers are hinting that Garcia might be leveling up with a 90.3 MPH EV and 7.1% K% in 42 PA, which is easy to buy into considering he’s still only 22 years old. It’s not a full breakout as the 2.8 degree launch and 4.8% BB% still isn’t great, but at least he might be entering usable territory.

AJ Smith-Shawver ATL, RHP, 20.4 – 4.2 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 8/1 K/BB in his season debut at High-A. The big stuff is unquestioned with a mid to upper 90’s fastball, so seeing the good control is huge. If he keeps it up for a few more starts, his value will absolutely skyrocket.

Ben Brown CHC, RHP, 23.7 – 5 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 7/2 K/BB at Double-A. He’s yet to give up a run in 2 outings with 0 ER and a 13/6 K/BB in 9 IP. It’s probably mid-rotation upside with some reliever risk, but this is no doubt explosive MLB stuff.

Justin Lange NYY, RHP, 21.7 – 5 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 10/2 K/BB at Single-A. It’s Lange’s 2nd straight gem and he now has 2 ER with a 17/2 K/BB in 10 IP. The stuff is very legit too with a 95.2 MPH sinker and a 5 pitch mix which put up a 53% whiff%. He’s also 6’4”, 220 pounds. His control was horrible in 2021 and 2022, and it’s still a small sample this year, but Lange is checking a whole lot of boxes right now.

Cole Wilcox TBR, RHP, 23.9 – 4 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 7/1 K/BB at Double-A. It’s his 2nd strong outing after he missed most of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Tampa is a wizard at developing pitching, and Wilcox looks next in line to really start popping.

Henry Davis PIT, C, 23.6 – Davis crushed his 2nd homer in 8 games at Double-A out to right centerfield. Just check out that video, the dude is an absolute tank. He’s battled injuries in his young pro career, but he looks healthy this year with a 150 wRC+ and 15.4%/17.9% K%/BB%.

Nick Yorke BOS, 2B, 21.0 – Yorke got on the board for his first homer at Double-A with a line drive pull shot that cleared the fence in a hurry. He’s clearly been tinkering with his batting stance, starting with his hands higher this year. He now has a 153 wRC+ in 8 games, but most of it is on the back of a 25% BB% as his .231 BA and .385 SLG isn’t great. He’s still a solid prospect, but without the true plus hit tool, it’s not a high upside profile.

Brandon Marsh PHI, OF, 25.4 – Marsh continues to lock in his breakout status, going 4 for 6 with a double. He’s always hit the ball hard and had speed, so the improved hit tool and plate approach with a 24%/10% K%/BB% is leading the charge. He jumped from 422nd to 295th on the Updated Top 433 Dynasty Rankings.

Bryson Stott PHI, 2B/SS, 25.6 – Stott went 3 for 7 with his first homer of the year and is having a huge start to the year with a .380 BA, but the underlying numbers aren’t buying it. The .277 xwOBA is well below average and the 23.6%/1.4% K%/BB% isn’t good. I’m not buying that this a true breakout and he could be a good sell high if someone is really buying into it.

Logan Allen CLE, LHP, 24.7 – 4.2 IP, 5 hits, 1 ER, and a 9/1 K/BB at Triple-A. Allen has been on point in 3 outings this year with a 1.26 ERA and 34.5%/8.6% K%/BB% in 14.1 IP, which is good to see after he got hit up at Triple-A last year. It’s still likely a back end profile with a low 90’s fastball, and there is a lot of super talented competition for future Cleveland rotation spots.

Louie Varland MIN, RHP, 25.4 – Varland was my first “full breakout alert” and “major prospect buy” of the season back on the April 8th Dynasty Rundown, and it didn’t take long to pay off at all as he more than held his own versus the Yankees in Yankee Stadium on Friday, going 6 IP with 6 hits, 3 ER, and a 8/1 K/BB. The fastball was up 2.4 MPH to 96.2 MPH and he put up a 28% whiff% with a 4 pitch mix. As I wrote after his first Triple-A start in that Rundown, the uptick in stuff takes his upside to a whole other level. He was already sent back down because Minnesota’s rotation is jam packed, but he’s still a major buy long term.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on April 3, 2023April 3, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/3/23)

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Trent Grisham SDP, OF, 26.5 – It looked like Grisham’s power was leveling up in spring, and it’s now transferring into the regular season with him destroying a 107.4 MPH, 419 foot bomb out to centerfield for his first of the year. He now has a 97.6 MPH EV in 11 batted balls to go along with a .948 OPS. I said it in spring, but even a modest power uptick would do wonders for his flyball heavy profile. It wouldn’t be the first time someone had a mid 20’s power breakout, and Grisham wasn’t coming from that low of a starting point to begin with. He’s a definite contender to be one of 2023’s big breakouts and is an early season buy for me.

Wander Franco TBR, SS, 22.1 – The big breakout is percolating and it just makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside. Franco went 2 for 3 with a double and is now 7 for 11 with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 7.7%/15.4% K%/BB%. He has a 91.3 MPH EV and a 11.9 degree launch. It’s obviously silly early, but he has the kind of generational baseball talent that makes a silly good season well within the realm of possibility. My mind is telling me it’s still too early, but my body, my body’s telling me yes (on 2nd thought, maybe I shouldn’t be quoting R. Kelly lyrics 🙂

Jarred Kelenic SEA, OF, 23.9 – 0 for 3 with 2 K’s. He’s now hitting .154 with a 42.9% K% in 14 PA. Kelenic pulled the ole’ Spring rope a dope on us once again.

Jeffrey Springs TBR, LHP, 30.7 – I named Springs a player to target back on September 26th in my Top 13 Early Off-Season Dynasty Baseball Targets, because not only did I suspect his hype would rise the more the off-season went along (it did), but also because of just how good he is. He proved it in his first start of the season, going 6 IP with 0 hits, 0 ER, and a 12/1 K/BB. A start like that will close just about any buy window that might have still been open.

Graham Ashcraft CIN, RHP, 25.2 – 7 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 6/1 K/BB vs. Pitt. Ashcraft is another IBW favorite and a Starting Pitcher Target who started to get more people jumping on the bandwagon towards the end of the off-season. He only notched a 21% whiff% in this one, which isn’t super encouraging, but he can breakout even without a true strikeout explosion because of his ability to keep the ball on the ground. Even a modest K uptick could have him putting up some Framber Valdez-lite type seasons.

Jonathan India CIN, 2B, 26.3 – Don’t shoot the messenger, but despite India’s hot start (he went 2 for 4 yesterday and has a 1.356 OPS in 13 PA), I’m concerned he still only has an 83.1 MPH EV. He showed in 2021 he can have a big year without having a huge average EV, but your margin of error gets a lot smaller. I’m cautiously optimistic, but I wouldn’t just start valuing him as if he was back quite yet.

Chris Bassitt TOR, RHP, 34.1 – 3.1 IP, 10 hits, 9 ER, 0/0 K/BB vs. St. Louis. Bassitt was taking it sooooo easy during spring training with his velocity down like 4 MPH, he never even bothered to truly get prepared for the regular season. This is what happens when you don’t prepare. His velocity was up from spring, but was still down 1.7 MPH to 91.1 MPH. I suspect that will continue to rise over the next month and as he basically uses April to truly ramp up. This is the same thing that happened with Manoah in his first start of the season. Definitely don’t sell low on either, but both should maybe consider actually using spring training to be ready for Opening Day.

Mike Clevinger CHW, RHP, 32.3 – 5 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 8/3 K/BB. The fastball was up 1.1 MPH to 94.7 MPH and he put up a 30% whiff% overall. Many pitchers don’t fully return to health until their 2nd year back from Tommy John, and it looks like Clevinger is taking that path.

Kodai Senga NYM, RHP, 30.2 – 5.1 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 8/3 K/BB vs. Miami. The fastball sat 96.8 MPH and the ghost fork put up a 64% whiff%. He likely got a bit fortunate with a 93.3 MPH EV against, and the fastball in particular was very hittable with 0 whiffs, but this was a very encouraging first start. Big stuff. Missed bats. Good pitching line.

Nolan Gorman STL, 2B, 22.11 – Gorman is carrying over his hot spring into the regular season, smashing 2 homers yesterday at 105.2 MPH and 104.4 MPH. He now has a 1.726 OPS in 13 PA. In my 3/28/23 Spring Dynasty Rundown I wrote that “Jordan Walker’s blinding hype has made everyone forget that Nolan Gorman was once upon a time labeled the next big slugger for the Cardinals,” and I kept the faith on him in my Top 1,000, ranking him 182nd overall. I’m buying the breakout, and is an early “buy high” candidate before it becomes even more obvious.

Brendan Donovan STL, 3B/2B/OF, 26.3 – Donovan was another player who I was buying into all of March due to his excellent spring, and the regular season hasn’t slowed him down at all. He smoked his 2nd homer of the year in just 3 games after hitting only 5 in 126 games in 2022. He’s for real.

Alec Burleson STL, OF, 24.4/Dylan Carlson STL, OF, 24.6/ Jordan Walker STL, 3B/OF, 20.11 – – St. Louis’ biggest problem is that they are too damn good at development. There is no where for all of these guys to play. Burleson had a huge day at the dish, going 3 for 4 with a 2 doubles and a homer. Dylan Carlson also went 3 for 4, while Jordan Walker went 1 for 3 with a double. The “problem” will eventually work itself out, but until then, everyone might be getting some extra rest here and there.

Xander Bogaerts SDP, SS, 30.6 – Bogaerts ripped his 2nd homer of the season with a 413 foot shot and now has a 1.471 OPS in 17 PA. He could end up being a good example of just not overthinking things too much. Sure the underlying numbers weren’t great last year, and sure he got a big ballpark downgrade, but the guy has been an all star caliber ballplayer for years now and is only 30. You want to keep betting proven talent.

Noah Syndergaard LAD, RHP, 30.7 – 6 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 6/0 K/BB vs. ARI. The velocity uptick didn’t come with a 92.7 MPH sinker, but that doesn’t mean LA still won’t work their magic. Missing bats is the most important thing, and he missed bats in this one with a 29% whiff% on the back of his changeup (60% whiff%). I was buying once he signed with LA, and I’m still buying.

Tyler Anderson LAA, LHP, 33.3 – 6 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 4/2 K/BB vs. OAK. LA’s magic pixie dust might just have some staying power, or maybe it was just going against Oakland’s terrible lineup that did the trick. I think I could throw up some zero’s against their rag tag crew of misfits.

Oscar Colas CHW, OF, 24.6 – Colas said he wanted to get more frisky on the bases, and he put his money where his mouth is stealing his first MLB bag. He went 2 for 5 with a double and is now 5 for 14 on the season. The power hasn’t come yet, but we know it’s in there.

Josh Jung TEX, 3B, 25.2 – Jung cracked his first homer of the year on a 1 for 3 with 0 K day. The 30.8% K% is still higher than you would like to see, but it’s only 3 games and he’s walking too with a 15.4% BB%.

Yoan Moncada CHW, 3B, 27.10 – Moncada has come back from the graveyard to get off to a screaming start. He went 3 for 4 with 2 doubles and connected on his 2nd homer of the year going the opposite way. He now has a 1.418 OPS in 19 PA. The 36.8%/5.3% K%/BB% still scares me, and so does his very inconsistent track record. I’m going to need to see a lot more to really buy in.

MacKenzie Gore WAS, LHP, 24.1 – 5.1 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 6/4 K/BB vs. ATL. The stuff was excellent as usual with his fastball sitting 94.8 MPH and putting up a 33% whiff% overall, but the control issues are still scary. He came away unscathed in this one, but he’ll get scathed in the future if he can’t meaningfully improve his control.

Jared Shuster ATL, LHP, 24.8 – 4.2 IP, 6 hits, 4 ER, 1/5 K/BB vs. WAS. This is why I really wasn’t buying in super hard on Shuster. Washington has a AAAA lineup, but the stuff just isn’t big enough to consistently dominate. The fastball only sat 90.1 MPH and it got destroyed with a 96.3 MPH EV against. He’ll be better than this, but I don’t see big upside here.

Tyler Soderstrom OAK, C/1B, 21.4 – Soderstrom has been a power hitting beast the second he stepped into pro ball, and it’s scary that the power might actually be leveling up now. He decimated his first homer of the year at Triple-A with a 466 foot, 113.5 MPH bomb. He went 3 for 5 with 2 doubles and the aforementioned homer and is now 5 for 9 on the season. Oakland’s lineup is a joke and they have been fast tracking Soderstrom since last year. He’s going to be the middle of the order bat that Oakland so desperately needs, and it might happen sooner rather than later.

Logan O’Hoppe LAA, C, 23.2 – I named O’Hoppe the most underrated prospect catcher in baseball before the 2022 season, and his stock has just continued to soar since then. He cracked his first MLB homer and is now 4 for 10 with 0 K’s and a 93.2 MPH EV in 11 batted balls. Power. Contact. I didn’t understand why he was so underrated in the first place. He won’t be underrated for much longer.

Kyle Manzardo TBR, 1B, 22.9 – It’s only a matter of time until Manzardo kicks the door down, and that door is starting to splinter after taking his first whack at it yesterday. He utterly unloaded for his first homer of the year with a 107.4 MPH bullet at Triple-A. He’s only 2 for 12 to start the year, but that isn’t going to last long.

Jordan Westburg BAL, SS, 24.1/Connor Norby BAL, 2B, 22.10 – – Westburg and Norby are trying to kick the door down themselves, but Baltimore has built a wall of veterans to block their way. Westburg smoked a 106.7 MPH dinger off Luis Patino for his first of the year at Triple-A, and Norby hit his 2nd of the year at 100.2 MPH. Neither of them had any troubles in the upper minors in 2022, and I’m expecting smooth sailing in 2023 as well.

Brandon Pfaadt ARI, RHP, 24.6 – Pfaadt’s reward for clearly winning Arizona’s 5th starter job was to get sent down to the pitching hell hole that is Reno, and he got smacked up in his first start back, going 3.2 IP with 6 hits, 5 ER and 7/0 K/BB. The fastball sat 94.2 MPH, and the K/BB numbers were on point, so I wouldn’t be concerned at all, but he didn’t deserve this. With Mad Bum currently experiencing arm fatigue, hopefully he doesn’t have to stay there long.

Jhony Brito NYY, RHP, 25.2 – The unheralded Brito came out of nowhere to pitch a gem, going 5 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB vs. SF. The fastball sat 95.6 MPH and the changeup was his most used pitch, putting up a 50% whiff%. He used a 5 pitch mix to utterly dominate in every facet. The K rate wasn’t high in the upper minors, but he kept the ball on the ground and had a 2.96 ERA in 112.2 IP. He’s certainly worthy of a pick up at the least, although the Yanks sent him back down because they don’t need a fifth starter for a little while.

Nick Gonzales PIT, 2B, 23.10 – Gonzales had a sneaky good spring training (.962 OPS), and now he’s carrying it over into Triple-A with his first homer at 105.9 MPH. Even in a “bad” year in 2022, the guy still had a 127 wRC+ at Double-A. Bae is getting his shot at 2B at the moment, but if he doesn’t produce, Gonzales won’t be far behind.

Bo Naylor CLE, C, 23.1 – Put one up on the big board for Naylor too as he went 2 for 5 with a double and a homer. It’s only a matter of time before he takes over the starting catcher job from Zunino, or at least a large share of it.

Nick Loftin KC, SS/2B/OF, 24.6/Samad Taylor KCR, 2B/OF, 24.9 – It’s a fringe festival in Kansas City, and there is no reason Loftin and Taylor can’t join the parade soon. They each cracked their first homers of the year at Triple-A, and Taylor in particular is off to an exciting start with 2 steals and a 200 wRC+ in 3 games. Both have fantasy friendly upsides worthy of taking fliers on when they do get the call.

Nolan Jones COL, OF, 24.11/Michael Toglia COL, 1B/OF, 24.7 – The Blocked Brothers both connected for dingers at Triple-A yesterday. It was Toglia’s first and Jones third of the year. I’m not even going to pretend to know when/if Colorado plans on giving these guys their shot.

Christopher Morel CHC, 2B/OF, 23.9 – Morel is about to bludgeon Triple-A pitching, and he’s already begun with his first dinger at 106.4 MPH. He now has a 212 wRC+ in the early going, but of course it still comes with a high 33.3% K%. He doesn’t have to be Wander Franco to breakout, he just needs to take one step forward with his hit tool to be a beast, and I think he will.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)