Dynasty Baseball Rundown – Page 3

Posted on March 10, 2025March 10, 2025 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (3/10/25)

I’m doing these Rundowns all Spring and all season over on the Patreon, with a few per month free here on the Brick Wall. I’m just psyched to have baseball back! Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (3/10/25):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON & SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2025 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (analysis, projections, & prime projections for every player)
-TOP 500 2025 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECT RANKS
-TOP 146 2025 FYPD RANKS (+FYPD Target & Strategy Guide)
-POSITION BY POSITION TARGETS
-OBP TOP 400 2025 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2026 PROSPECTS RANKS
-2025 DEEP DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–Top 83 1B–Top 98 2B–Top 109 3B–Top 154 SS–Top 260 OF-Top 305 SP-Top 76 RP
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST
-SPREADSHEETS

Grayson Rodriguez – BAL, RHP, 25.3/Gerrit Cole – NYY, RHP, 34.7/George Kirby – SEA, RHP, 27.2 – We’ve come to the part of spring training where pitchers start dropping like flies. Here is what I wrote about Grayson on Sad Dynasty Rundown Day (don’t ask) after his terrible outing, “And while he said he wasn’t trying, he also said he changed his delivery this off-season to take pressure off the twice injured lat and to put it on the scapular. I’m no scientist, but that seems like a recipe to just hurt a different part of your body.” … and right on cue, Grayson goes down with elbow inflammation which required a cortisone shot. Gerrit Cole looks like he’s headed for Tommy John surgery. And Kirby will open the season on the IL with shoulder inflammation that doesn’t seem overly serious. I bring these injuries up because I get a ton of trade questions that ask if should I trade “top hitting prospect X” for “established pitcher X” when I have the pitcher ranked a bit ahead of the hitter in my rankings. And my response is often the same. Which is that I absolutely hate doing trades like that, regardless of the rankings, for this very reason. There are scenarios where I would simply refuse to trade any of my truly top hitting prospects for any pitcher. It’s the type of trade I make only when I’m truly all in. I much prefer to build my staff by finding underrated pitchers (which there are always tons of) rather than paying up for the hyped to death aces. You of course still need good pitchers to win, so you are going to have to pick your spots eventually, but trading an elite or near elite hitting prospect for any pitcher should be a last case scenario. You should exhaust all other avenues first, regardless of what a general dynasty ranking says, even my own.

Anthony Volpe – NYY, SS, 23.11 – Volpe is looking for a bounce back year 3 after a disappointing sophomore year, but even his homers are unimpressive with him tapping a 90 MPH homer off Michael McGreevy. The swing looked super slow during the homer too, which is a major concern of mine with Volpe. He just doesn’t swing a quick bat with a 69.5 MPH swing last year and a 70.9 MPH swing in the 2nd half of 2023. He doesn’t make a ton of contact, he doesn’t have a great approach, and he doesn’t have a ton of raw power, which makes me a bit concerned about what Volpe’s actual ceiling. He runs, he’s young, and he’s excellent on defense, so it’s not like I hate him. I still have him #101 on the Top 1,000 2025 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), but I just don’t love that slow ass swing.

Zach Dezenzo – HOU, 1B, 24.11 – Now that is the type of swing I like to see. Dezenzo used his elite bat speed to drill a homer out to right center. He’s competing for a job this spring, and while he’s not off to the best start with a 89 wRC+, let’s see if this can kick off a hot streak. His glove is a problem, and it could be the thing that keeps in the minors or on the bench, but he’s 6’5”, 220 pounds with an elite 75.4 MPH swing and a well above average 28.3 ft/sec sprint. These are the elite athletes I love betting on, and there is definitely opportunity in Houston. He’s a target of mine long term.

Tomoyuki Sugano – BAL, RHP, 35.6 – 3 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER, 5/0 K/BB vs. like a 40%-ish Twins lineup. Sugano has yet to give up a run in 7 IP this spring. He’s missing bats too with a 26.9% K%. He’s coming off a season in Japan where he put up a 1.67 ERA. We might have to start putting some respect on this man’s name. There is a decent chance he’s actually damn good despite not having huge velocity and huge K rates in Japan. Don’t dismiss him so quickly.

Clay Holmes – NYM, RHP, 30.4 – 3.2 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 8/3 K/BB vs. 50/50 Washington lineup. Holmes continues to prove the velocity isn’t going to fall off a cliff in the rotation, holding steady at 95.4 MPH, and he’s also proving he has the pitch mix to start with a 6 pitch mix. Most notably, the changeup notched a 75% whiff% in this one. Holmes is obliterating the spring and any value on him is so far gone it’s not even funny. He was a great target this off-season, but now during draft season, you are going to have to pay up full price. I still like him, and I think he’ll be worth the price, but there are no deals to be found here anymore.

Aroon Escobar – PHI, 2B, 20.3 – I generally hate players who are “old” for their rookie ball leagues. These include 18 year olds repeating the DSL and 19 year olds in stateside rookie ball, but with the recent contraction of the minor leagues, I might have to loosen up my stance on that. With fewer teams, more deserving guys are going to repeat rookie ball levels, and on the flip side, Single-A is getting more rookie ball-ish itself. High-A might really be the true “full season ball” jump that Single-A used to be. It’s something to keep in mind, and something that I have to continue adjusting to myself. Enter Aroon, who destroying rookie ball as a 19 year old with a 172 wRC+, 3 homers, 9 steals, and a 9.6/20.2 K%/BB% in 24 games. I wasn’t in on him because of his age, but I’m feeling regret for that after he crushed him first homer this spring at a grown man’s 108.2 MPH. He now has a 505 wRC+ in 2 PA ;). He’s not necessarily a big tools guy, which is another reason I wasn’t in on him, but he can end up a very strong across the board contributor. He deserved more respect from me.

Gavin Williams – CLE, RHP, 25.8 – 3.2 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 7/1 K/BB vs. a very weak White Sox lineup. Granted, I think I could have racked up a few K’s against these guys (Bobby Dalbec and his 46.2% K% in the majors last year K’d 3 times in this one), but there is still no denying how fire Williams’ has looked this spring. The 95.3 MPH fastball put up a 50% whiff% and the curve and slider were whiff machines too, leading to a 55% whiff% overall. He now has a 1.33 ERA with a 50.0%/6.3 K%/BB% in 8 IP. It’s only spring, and the competition isn’t great, but this is exactly what we wanted to see coming off the down and injured 2024. His value is definitely back on the rise, even if I would be a little careful about just drafting your team based on who is having the best spring trainings. I remember when the default used to be that spring didn’t matter. Now, my goodness how it’s flipped. It’s like spring is all that matters ha. Can’t deny that I feel partly responsible for this, because when I started writing Spring Rundowns years ago, nobody else was writing them and there really wasn’t that much spring content. Now it’s a deluge hah.

Jac Caglianone – KCR, 1B, 22.2 – Speaking of overrating spring, Jac is a man possessed, utterly obliterating a 114.6 MPH, 444 foot bomb for his 3rd in 14 PA. Call me crazy, but I don’t think he sees that pitch in a real game. He’s not only showing off power though, the plate approach looks excellent as well with a 7.1/21.4 K%/BB%. Jac is an undeniable beast, and I have zero issue taking him extremely high in First Year Player Drafts, but personally, I’m not going to rearrange my entire FYPD Rankings just based on who is having the best spring. I always said there is a top tier of 11 guys, and if any of them ended up the best player in the class, I wouldn’t be surprised at all, but I’m going to stick with my off-season order.

Richard Fitts – BOS, RHP, 25.3 – 2.1 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 4/3 K/BB vs. a very weak Braves lineup. He now has a 1.42 ERA with a 32.1/14.3 K%/BB% in 6.1 IP. Fitts came into spring a new man with upper 90’s heat and filthy stuff, and that was on display yesterday as well. He was mostly a control over stuff guy coming into this year, but it sure looks like he’s changing that profile into a stuff over control guy now, and for fantasy, that is definitely what we want to see, but he still has to prove he can truly harness the stuff in a starting role. He’s so obviously a major riser this spring, and with Bello starting the year on the IL, there is a rotation spot to be won, so he makes for a great underrated target. I’m just worried with how much hype he’s getting, he’s not actually going to be all that underrated.

Jack Kochanowicz – LAA, RHP, 24.3 – The most boring pitcher alive keeps churning out good outings, going 4 IP with 0 hits, 0 ER, and a 2/0 K/BB vs a bad Reds lineup. He now has a 1.00 ERA with a 17.6/2.9 K%/BB% in 9 IP. The K% is at least much better than the 9.4% K% he put in the majors last year, but even that with that 9.4% K%, he still pitched well with a 3.99 ERA in 65.1 IP. It’s all sinker all the time, which is just quite boring, but it’s been undeniably effective for awhile now. He doesn’t seem to have a rotation spot, but I guess he’s not the worst guy to roster in deeper leagues.

Brady House – WAS, 3B, 21.10 – House is oh so quietly having an excellent spring and showing improvement in the main area he needed to show improvement in. He went 1 for 1 with a walk yesterday and now has a 153 wRC+ with a 4.8/14.3 K%/BB% in 21 PA. That 3B job is just waiting for him, and he’s already spent a good amount of time at Triple-A last year. He’s a sneaky candidate to make a big impact in 2025. He doesn’t get the respect he deserves both in the short term and the long term.

Ben Rice – NYY, 1B, 26.6 – 0 for 4 with 2 K’s and now has a 39 wRC+ with a 32% K% in 25 PA … you are really going to have to start hitting soon if you want to lock in that vacant DH job

Evan Carter – TEX, OF, 22.7 – 0 for 2 with a K and now has a 9 wRC+ with a 33.3/4.8 K%/BB% in 21 PA … this is not giving much hope that the ominous back injury is okay

Jordan Hicks – SFG, RHP, 28.8 – 2.2 IP, 6 hits, 3 ER, 1/2 K/BB vs. a Quad-A San Diego lineup. He now has a 6.75 ERA with a 17.4/13.0 K%/BB% in 4 IP … I guess one year of not pitching well as a starter wasn’t enough for San Francisco. They want to run it back …

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

Posted on March 2, 2025March 2, 2025 by Michael Halpern

Sunday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (3/2/25)

I’m doing these Rundowns all Spring and all season over on the Patreon, with a few per month free here on the Brick Wall. I’m just psyched to have baseball back! Here is the Sunday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (3/2/25):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON & SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2025 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (analysis, projections, & prime projections for every player)
-TOP 500 2025 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECT RANKS
-TOP 146 2025 FYPD RANKS (+FYPD Target & Strategy Guide)
-POSITION BY POSITION TARGETS
-OBP TOP 400 2025 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-2025 DEEP DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–Top 83 1B–Top 98 2B–Top 109 3B–Top 154 SS–Top 260 OF-Top 305 SP-Top 76 RP
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST
-SPREADSHEETS

Hye-seong Kim – LAD, 2B, 26.2 – I’ve been dogging Hye-seong all week in the Rundowns for his awful start to spring, but he got his vengeance yesterday, tapping a 95.6 MPH homer the other way for his first big day stateside. He didn’t exactly crush it, but the swing changes are meant to get him more cheapies like that, because without the swing change, he was likely only a 5-10 homer guy. And just look at that beautiful swing! How can you not buy into that? I sure did this off-season naming him a low key target, and while the swing changes are taking some time, I still can’t help but be enamored by his talent. If the swing changes start to click, I don’t see why he couldn’t be like a .270/15/30 guy once he really gets his bearings in MLB, which would probably be more realistically in 2026 and beyond.

Jerar Encarnacion – SFG, OF, 27.5 – Encarnacion showed off his truly top of the scale power with a 113 MPH homer out to dead center. The ball landed right over the 410 ft marking in center, but Statcast says it was hit 387 feet. Huh? A bit odd. Somebody is lying right to our faces. Either way, Encarnacion was a bat speed standout in 2024 with a 77 MPH swing, and it resulted in an elite 95 MPH EV in 119 PA. It actually came with a pretty damn solid 28.7% whiff% too, and so far this spring his K% is sitting at a very nice 20% in 15 PA. If he keeps making that much contact, with his bat speed and power, a breakout is inevitable. He’s going to have to kick the door down for playing time, but Encarnacion is in really fun and cheap flier territory right now. He could be an “out of nowhere” bat who cracks 30+ dingers.

Konnor Griffin – PIT, OF, 18.11 – Welcome to pro ball, Konnor Griffin. It didn’t take long for him to make his presence felt, coolly and easily destroying his first homer the other way out to right center. At 6’4”, 225 pounds, that power comes so easy, and that isn’t even his best tool arguably, it’s his 70 grade speed. It’s all about the hit tool though, and so far, so good as he’s 2 for 5 with 0 K’s. I said it in my FYPD Target article (Patreon), but we may be looking back at this class and kicking ourselves that we didn’t take Griffin over the college bats. He’s the only one who truly has elite dynasty asset potential. I see him getting faded in a ton of FYPD drafts. Don’t make that mistake.

Pete Crow-Armstrong – CHC, OF, 23.0 – Pete Crow is going to absolutely explode in 2025. His power is no joke, and he continues to prove that, crushing a 104.4 MPH homer off Cole Ragans and tacking on a 104.6 MPH double off Lucas Erceg. He’s now 7 for 14 on the spring with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 247 wRC+. His power/speed combo can legitimately rival the very best in the game, and I still feel like he’s getting underrated by the fantasy community. I’ve been all in on him for 4 years now, and I’m still all in this year, ranking him 66th overall on the Top 1,000 2025 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). I also placed a long shot bet on him leading the league in steals. This is your last chance to get in on him at anything resembling a reasonable price.

Ben Rice – NYY, 1B, 26.6 – Rice obliterated a 113.3 MPH line drive homer that left the park in like half a second. His barrel ability is special, putting up a 15.6% Barrel% in his very first taste of the majors, and while the hits weren’t falling for him, they are about to start falling in 2025. I closed out Rice’s blurb in my First Base Targets (Patreon) by writing, “I don’t know how. And I don’t know when. But I do know who. And that who is Ben Rice.” … and now that Giancarlo is set to miss the start of the season with double tennis elbow, we know how too. He’s coming for that DH job, and if he can establish himself, I’m sure the Yanks will want to get that bat in the lineup somehow.

Chase Dollander – COL, RHP, 23.5 – Dollander went up against a pretty legit Arizona lineup, and they weren’t scared of the 97.4 MPH fastball, whiffing only 15% of the time on it and hitting it up for a 92.9 MPH EV against. It resulted in a rough outing for Dollander, going 3 IP with 3 hits, 3 ER, and a 4/1 K/BB. He still missed plenty of bats with a cutter and change, leading to an excellent 29% whiff%, and the curve induced weak contact. Pitching prospects are just too volatile for me to bet on any Coors pitching prospect, which is why he ranked 58th overall on my Top 500 2025 Dynasty Prospects Rankings (Patreon), but on his own merits, he would likely land closer to 20th overall. I just can’t ignore the looming Coors monster.

Cade Povich – BAL, LHP, 24.11 – 3 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 6/1 K/BB vs. Pitt’s Quad-A+Cruz lineup. Not the best competition, but Povich has been absolutely lights out this spring in 5 IP with 0 ER and a 38.9/5.6 K%/BB%. I thought his path to improvement would be increased stuff, as the fastball only sits low 90’s, but it looks like it could come with improved control/command. He has his stuff on an absolute string this spring, and it’s still missing a ton of bats. I was out on Povich, but his spring performance definitely has me regretting that decision.

Michael Soroka – WSH, RHP, 27.8 – Soroka was another arm that I was out on, and he too might make me regret it, going 3 IP with 0 hits, 0 ER, and a 3/1 K/BB vs. a decently tough Cardinals lineup. The 4-seamer was up 1.4 MPH to 94.9 MPH, and it’s not like it was a 1 inning outing. The slider missed a ton of bats too going 4 for 8 on whiffs, leading to a 29% whiff% overall. He’s moving into acceptable deeper league flier territory for me.

Shane McClanahan – TBR, LHP, 27.1 – McClanahan made his debut coming off Tommy John and went 2 IP with 3 hits, 0 ER, and a 1/0 K/BB vs. a mediocre Mets lineup. The fastball was hitting the upper 90’s, so the stuff is back and he certainly looks healthy. Still remains to be seen how much rust he will have to shake off, but this was a positive first outing.

George Lombard – NYY, SS, 19.10 – If Lombard’s power ticks up, his prospect stock is set to soar, and it looks like that might happen with him obliterating a 108.4 MPH homer for his first of spring. That swing looked so legit, and the 76.4 MPH bat speed backs up the ocular evaluation. He’s still just 19 years old and is coming off a solid first full year of pro ball. He’s just a really good all around ball player.

Grant Taylor – CHW, RHP, 22.10 – 1 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 2/0 K/BB. Taylor showed off the electric stuff with a 99.9 MPH fastball that notched a 33% whiff% with a 66.7 MPH EV against. It was simply unhittable. He also mixed in a cutter, changeup, and slider with none of his pitches coming in under 88.2 MPH. The “changeup” sits 92.6 MPH, which is faster than some guys fastballs. There is injury risk and he still has a lot to prove, but his top level stuff is unquestionable.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand – CIN, 1B, 25.4 – CES wrist watch … 111.6 MPH bullet off Dylan Cease for his 2nd of the spring. He had a good AFL too. Wrist injuries scare me for hitters, but Strand looks like he’s back to 100%.

Julio Rodriguez – SEA, OF, 24.3 – 0 for 2 and is now 1 for 11 on the spring … I love it, let’s get that slow start out of the way now, because I think he’s going to literally kill his owners if he doesn’t start hitting until mid summer again …

Noelvi Marte – CIN, 3B, 23.6 – 0 for 2 with 2 K’s and is now 1 for 12 with a 42.9% K% … I think it’s time to get back on the juice. It’s worth the risk, because this ain’t it …

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON & SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2025 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (analysis, projections, & prime projections for every player)
-TOP 500 2025 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECT RANKS
-TOP 146 2025 FYPD RANKS (+FYPD Target & Strategy Guide)
-POSITION BY POSITION TARGETS
-OBP TOP 400 2025 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-2025 DEEP DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–Top 83 1B–Top 98 2B–Top 109 3B–Top 154 SS–Top 260 OF-Top 305 SP-Top 76 RP
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST
-SPREADSHEETS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

Posted on February 21, 2025 by Michael Halpern

Spring Training Opening Day Dynasty Baseball Rundown

Damn it feels good to be doing the Rundowns again! It’s only Spring and it’s only one game, but I’m buzzing that there is officially new games and data to analyze … and more accurately at this time of year … to overanalyze. As usual, I’m doing Dynasty Baseball Rundowns all Spring, with most of them coming on the Patreon, and a few coming on the Brick Wall like this one (usually on Monday’s, but I’ll make an exception for Spring Training Opening Day). There is sooooooooo much off-season content already up on the Patreon, and there is much more coming, in particular one of my favorite articles to write every year, Predicting the Top 50 2026 Prospects Rankings which doubles as a Bold Predictions article. But first, here is the Spring Training Opening Day Dynasty Baseball Rundown:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON & SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2025 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (analysis, projections, & prime projections for every player)
-TOP 500 2025 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECT RANKS
-TOP 146 2025 FYPD RANKS (+FYPD Target & Strategy Guide)
-POSITION BY POSITION TARGETS
-OBP TOP 400 2025 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-2025 DEEP DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–Top 83 1B–Top 98 2B–Top 109 3B–Top 154 SS–Top 260 OF-Top 305 SP-Top 76 RP
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST
-SPREADSHEETS

Gage Workman – CHC, SS/3B, 25.5 – Is it too early to victory lap? 😉 … Mere days after naming Workman a target in my Position by Position Target Series, he stole the show on Spring Opening Day, going the opposite way off lefty Justin Wrobelski at 101.5 MPH for his first dinger. He also tacked on a 99.9 MPH single off a 95.7 MPH Yamamoto fastball. Those are legit pitchers, but granted, they weren’t exactly game planning against him. I’ve never wanted to be more wrong about a target in my life, because if Workman breaks out, it very likely means the true love of my life, Matt Shaw, was a bust. This will be my saddest victory lap ever. It will be like one of those Tik Tok’s where the girl is both dancing and crying at the same time. I’m sorry, but I just couldn’t ignore that he’s 6’4”, 202 pounds with a plus power/speed combo and big time production at Double-A. Being a Rule 5 pick means he’s almost certainly going to make the team. Being right on Workman will be a disaster!

Kevin Alcantara – CHC, OF, 22.8 – The only thing that can be a bigger disaster than a Workman breakout is an Alcantara breakout. My love for Pete Crow Armstrong makes Matt Shaw look like a mere side piece. I’ve named Alcantara a target for a couple years now because he has straight Forgotten Unicorn status at 6’6”, 188 pounds with an at least plus raw power/speed combo. He just needs continued refinement, and he looked damn refined yesterday, going 2 for 3 with a 107.3 MPH single, a 79.7 MPH single off a 95.9 MPH Yamamoto fastball, a 97.3 MPH flyout, and 0 strikeouts. The bat control and hit tool didn’t look bad at all here. I will be on my knees weeping if I’m right about Alcantara, because that means PCA was a bust or hurt, but if you know me, I’ll still cry crawl that victory lap like one of those marathon runners who lost control of all of their bodily functions and just drags their ass over the finish line.

Bobby Miller – LAD, RHP, 26.0 – I hate to kick a guy when he’s down, because really the most important thing by far is that Miller’s okay after getting drilled with a 105.5 MPH comebacker to the head. I almost don’t want to do this blurb, because holy crap was that angle of it was so scary. Genuinely just hope there aren’t any lasting effects both physically and mentally. So I say this reluctantly, but he looked like the same guy from 2024 before that scary moment. He went 0.1 IP with 1 hit, 2 ER, and a 0/1 K/BB. He had a 0% whiff% on 11 pitches. His fastball sat 97.9 MPH which was in line with his decreased velocity from 2024. Basically everything looked like 2024. If you were hoping for him to come back this year looking like fire and going on a revenge tour, well, it certainly it didn’t happen in his first outing. He also needs to actually win a rotation spot back, so easing into things might not really work. But back to my original point, a moment like that makes you remember what is really important in life. Without your health, you have nothing. It’s also only February 21st, so he has plenty of time.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto – LAD, RHP, 26.8 – Yamamoto was everyone’s favorite shiny new toy at this time last off-season, and now that he went out and proved in 2024, I feel people just kinda quietly cooled on him. People are weird like that. The most important thing for him is to just look healthy though, and he certainly did yesterday, going 1.2 IP with 3 hits, 0 ER, and a 2/0 K/BB. The fastball sat 95.6 MPH and the curve and cutter notched a 33% whiff%. He’s not in mid season form, but this start is all systems go for Yamamoto.

Justin Wrobleski – LAD, LHP, 24.9 – 1 IP, 2 hits, 2 ER, 1/0 K/BB. The fastball was down 1+ ticks to 93.6 MPH, but it’s likely he’s just easing back into things, and it’s not like he’s realistically competing for a rotation spot or anything, so no need for him to come out throwing flames. Honestly, he seems miles away from a rotation spot. I like Wrobleski, but I’m not sure his upside is high enough to really voluntarily give yourself the headache that is the Dodgers rotation depth.

Ivan Brethowr CHC, OF, 22.1 – Brethowr didn’t have the type of pro debut (.527 OPS in 23 games at Single-A) to get on my radar as a 7th round college bat last year, but he surely got on radars yesterday as the 6’6”, 250 pound behemoth destroyed a batting practice 92.1 MPH fastball. It was a lefty pitcher (he’s a righty), and even with the terrible pro debut, he destroyed lefties with a .958 OPS in 9 PA. The swing doesn’t look particularly fast or short to me, which is likely why he dropped to the 7th round, and it seems a short side of a platoon bat is the best case scenario. But I mean, he’s a giant who clearly has real power. Feel free to keep an eye on him, but not sure there is much here.

Jonathon Long – CHI, 1B, 23.2 – I pulled a rabbit out of my hat with Long as a deep FYPD sleeper last year who went bonkos in 2024, and while he didn’t have a great game, he keeps on proving the bat is real. He went 0 for 2 with a walk, but those 2 outs were hit damn hard. One he crushed at 107.5 MPH for a lineout and the other was a 92.7 MPH flyout (not as impressive). But point being, the guy can hit the ball hard. I don’t see a path to playing time, and he’s the type that is going to have to absolutely kick the door down, probably in his mid 20’s, so he’s still only a deeper league guy.

Hye-seong Kim – LAD, 2B, 26.2 – Bet against the Dodgers development at your own risk. I already like Kim as a low key target, trusting the Dodgers to get the most out of his development, and then I read this article that is just gushing with praise about him out of Dodgers camp. He apparently loves to brag about his extremely low body fat percentage, but why do I have the feeling that 6 months in America is going to change that. hah … or maybe not if Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has anything to say about it 😉 Either way, maybe a smash burger or two won’t do him so bad to get those EV’s up. The article talks about changing his bat path to get to more power, adding EV, and how his glove his straight elite. He went 0 for 1 with a 49.4 MPH groundout, so I guess he can only go up from here. You know, it’s a process. He ranked 408th overall in my Top 1,000 2025 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon).

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON & SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2025 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (analysis, projections, & prime projections for every player)
-TOP 500 2025 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECT RANKS
-TOP 146 2025 FYPD RANKS (+FYPD Target & Strategy Guide)
-POSITION BY POSITION TARGETS
-OBP TOP 400 2025 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-2025 DEEP DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–Top 83 1B–Top 98 2B–Top 109 3B–Top 154 SS–Top 260 OF-Top 305 SP-Top 76 RP
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST
-SPREADSHEETS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
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Posted on September 16, 2024September 16, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (9/16/24)

Welcome to the final Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown of the season! But here at Imaginary Brick Wall, not only do we run through the finish line, there is no finish line! The rest of this week on the Patreon will be more Rundowns and the September Mailbag Podcast. Then the final week of the regular season will be the End of Season Top 400+ Dynasty Baseball Rankings. And after that, the fun is just getting started with tons of off-season content like Dynasty Team Reports, Team Prospect Lists, Deep Dynasty Positional Rankings, Strategy Articles, Top 100+ FYPD Rankings, Top 500+ Prospects Rankings, Top 1,000+ Dynasty Rankings and so much more. But first, here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (9/16/24):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-SEPTEMBER TOP 322 PROSPECTS RANKS
-END OF SEASON TOP 400+ DYNASTY RANKS COMING NEXT WEEK
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS with full scouting reports and prime projections
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: SEPTEMBER MAILBAG! COMING THIS WEEK
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT! – Dynasty Team Reports, Team Prospect Rankings, Deep Positional Rankings, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks, Top 500+ Prospects Ranks, Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks & so much more!

Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 22.6 – Pete Crow Armstrong’s power has been underrated from the time he was drafted. He was my #1 target in his 2020/21 FYPD class after getting drafted a ridiculous 19th overall, writing in his FYPD blurb, “Armstrong stands out for his plus speed, plus defense, and strong track record of hitting. Power hasn’t been a big part of his game, but he has recently added muscle onto his projectable 6’1” frame, and a 99 MPH exit velocity mark at a 2019 Perfect Game event is damn good. Armstrong is my favorite target in first year player drafts relative to consensus.” I’ve basically named him a target every 3 months since then, even ranking him within my Top 100 overall this off-season at #99. And it’s all paying off in a major way right now with him exploding on the MLB level. He homered yet again yesterday going the opposite way on a ball he didn’t even get close to all of. That gives him 7 homers with a 91.3 MPH EV in his last 30 games. A 94.1 MPH FB/LD EV on the season is no joke power. He’s about to rank in the Top 75 on the End of Season Dynasty Rankings coming next week. Put some respect on this man’s name. His name is Pete Crow Armstrong, not Pete Crow Armweak.

Sean Burke CHW, RHP, 24.9 – I’m far from ready to call Burke a target, but I will say that there are some interesting things brewing here that deserve our attention. He had his 2nd strong MLB outing in a row, going 5 IP with 5 hits, 2 ER, and a 5/2 K/BB vs. Oakland. The fastball sat 95.4 MPH and put up a 29% whiff%, while the slider and curve were solid as well with a 33% and 30% whiff%. It led to a 31% whiff% overall. His first outing against Cleveland was more of the same, and he now has a 2.25 ERA with a 30.4% whiff% in 8 IP. He has size (6’6”, 230 pounds), velocity (mid 90’s heat that misses bats) and bat missing secondaries (slider, curve change). He didn’t perform well at Triple-A with a 4.62 ERA in 64.1 IP, but all 4 of his pitches missed a ton of bats leading to a 31% K%. Control is the biggest problem here with well below average walk rates his entire career, but super tall pitchers can sometimes take longer to make control gains, and we all know that pitching development isn’t linear. So far in the majors he has a 8.3% BB%. Again, I’m not calling him a target, but I am saying there is some very interesting stuff going on here. There are definitely ingredients for a big breakout in the future, and as a free pick in the vast majority of leagues, I don’t hate it all. Consider this your first little warning on Burke.

Kevin Alcantara CHC, OF, 22.1 – The Forgotten Unicorn just so quietly slides under the radar, staying in the shadows like a Yeti. But this 6’6” uber athlete is going to hit the majors one day, put up an over 90 MPH EV with plus speed, and all of a sudden everyone is going to be in a tither talking about him as Oneil Cruz/James Wood 2.0 (or I guess 3.0). He’s giving us a taste at Triple-A right now after smoothly obliterated a ball out of the ballpark that the fans didn’t even budge on. That is unicorn power right there. He’s now dominating the level, slashing .292/.375/.481 with 5 homers, 5 steals, and a 28.3/10.8 K%/BB% in 29 games. He just ranked 53rd overall on the Top 322 Dynasty Prospects Rankings that just hit the Patreon last week, and while I feel like I’m high on him, I don’t think that ranking is nearly high enough on 2nd thought. This could be a Top 20 fantasy prospect at least right now. He’s a major target this off-season before everyone realizes there is a Forgotten Unicorn on the loose.

Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 23.5 – Speaking of forgotten unicorns, Spencer Jones is turning into one, but I think that is a major mistake. Don’t sell low on this man over the off-season no matter what you do. He had big day yesterday, going 2 for 4 with a double, homer, and 0 strikeouts. He now has only 3 strikeouts in his last 6 games, and while that obviously doesn’t even come close to overriding the 36.8% K% in 122 games at Double-A, I think it does represent his ability to get that K rate closer to the 30% range long term. And a 30% K% is all he needs to let the huge talent shine with 17 homers, 25 steals, and a 124 wRC+ despite the high K rate. Selling low on this kind of upside is a major mistake in my opinion. Hang on for dear life.

Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 22.2 – Lawlar finally showed up to the bar 5 minutes before closing time, and his night is just getting started, taking a shot out to deep left field for his first homer since June 11th. He looks no worse for the wear so far with a .879 OPS in 5 games since returning from a hamstring injury, and he’s also going to be headlining the Winter Ball after party to get more reps in this year, which will be fun to follow. When he’s on the field, he produces. Don’t write him off because of the injuries.

Bryan Ramos CHW, 3B, 22.6 – I held strong on Ramos through the struggles in the August Prospects Rankings, writing, “Down year with a 74 wRC+ in 66 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. It does have his value dropping, but I still believe in his hit/power combo long term. Down years happen, and he has a long track record of success, including at Double-A, so I would stay patient” … and that patience paid off. Since then he slashed .302/.407/.542 with 6 homers and a 19.3/11.4 K%/BB% in 25 games at Triple-A, which earned him a callup to the bigs where he has kept it going. He smashed a 397 foot homer and a 103.2 MPH double yesterday, and he now has a 151 wRC+ with a 90.1 MPH EV and 2 homers in 7 games since getting recalled. He also has legit speed with a 28.9 ft/sec sprint, and while he’s not a big base stealer, he should contribute in the category. He reminds me of a right handed version of Wilyer Abreu. I was high on both as prospects, and neither got nearly enough hype. Ramos should still be very cheap this off-season.

Denzel Clarke OAK, OF, 24.5 – If you missed out on Lawrence Butler, Denzel Clarke is here to give you a do over. They were once upon a time ranked very close together as tooled up A’s prospects with huge power/speed combos and major hit tool issues. But while Butler massively improved his hit tool in 2023, Clarke wasn’t able to do the same … until now. He went 2 for 4 with a 1/1 K/BB and 3 steals yesterday at Double-A, and he’s now slashing .317/.387/.524 with 9 homers, 30 steals, and a 23.5/8.6 K%/BB% in his last 73 games. That 23.5% K% is huge to see as his K rates have sat at or near 30% for his entire career. He’s hitting the ball on the ground a lot more this year, but he has the raw power and speed to make a low launch work, especially if it helps his hit tool. He’s a major stash candidate headed into the off-season.

Walker Jenkins MIN, OF, 19.6 – Jenkins got the call to Double-A, and while there was little doubt that the plate approach was legit, he’s putting it in Sharpie now with a 14.3/10.7 K%/BB% in 6 games as a 19 year old. He’s also leaving little doubt that he will be a legit contributor in steals, going 2 for 5 with his 2nd stolen base at the level yesterday. He’s only hitting .160, so the surface stats aren’t that great, but I’m more excited about the plate approach and steals transferring. Just like Kyle Tucker’s base running ability got underrated in the minors, Jenkins’ might be getting underrated as well. He has 17 steals in 82 games on the season, and if those can really stick in the majors, it’s Kyle Tucker all over again.

Matt Shaw CHC, 2B/SS, 22.10 – I was the high guy on Shaw pre draft. I was the high guy on Shaw last off-season, and I’ll continue to be the high guy on Shaw this off-season, ranking him 3rd overall on the Updated Top 322 Prospects Rankings (Patreon). And he rewarded my continued faith in him with a huge day yesterday, going 4 for 5 with a homer, triple, and a steal. He’s now slashing .296/.382/565 with 7 homers, 4 steals, and a 21.1/9.8 K%/BB% in 29 games at the level. His 91.4 MPH EV backs up the power. He can do it all offensively. That is an elite fantasy prospect in my book.

Aidan Smith TBR, OF, 20.1 – Smith got the call to High-A for the playoffs, and he made his mark yesterday, going 1 for 3 with a bomb that showed off both the power and bat control. He’s a lift and pull machine with a 35.7% GB% and 54.4% Pull%, and we all know Tampa’s ballpark is made for lift and pull. They traded for Smith for a reason. He’s already a Top 100 prospect for me, and his hype has been percolating all season, but it could truly explode in 2025.

Parker Meadows DET, OF, 24.10 – Parker Meadows was left for dead, but he has roared back with a vengeance since getting recalled to the majors, and I think I can now officially say that he was a gosh darn hit for me! He homered on Saturday and is now slashing .297/.342/.536 with 5 homers, 5 steals, and a 19.3/6.7 K%/BB% over his last 35 games. He now has a 110 wRC+ on the season!!! Barrels (8.7% Barrel%), launch (19.6 degree launch) and speed (29.1 ft/sec sprint) is what I loved coming into the season, and it’s all coming together now. I admit I lost faith when times got tough, but in the end, he was who I thought he was.

James Wood WAS, OF, 22.0 – I was all in on Wood this off-season, ranking him a super high 68th overall on the Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings, and he has now elevated into an elite dynasty asset like I foresaw. He smashed 2 more homers yesterday at 109 MPH and 107.7 MPH to break a bit of a drought, giving him 7 homers in 66 games. He’s launch proof with a 92.6 MPH EV, but that one degree launch will have to come up to fully tap into his raw power, and I have zero doubts that it will. The K rate isn’t great at 28.9%, but a 29.7% whiff% isn’t bad, and both numbers are not really in the true danger zone. Those swing and miss numbers are encouraging to me long term. And finally the speed is legit too with 12 steals and a 28.6 ft/sec sprint (although he has been caught 7 times, which isn’t great). He already ranked 18th overall on the August Dynasty Rankings (Patreon). It feels like all of the hyped rookies have mostly hit the ground running, well, except for …

Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 20.9 – 0 for 1 and now has a .371 OPS with a 34.1/5.7 K%/BB% and 85.5 MPH EV in his last 88 PA. What are we going to do with you Jackson this off-season? We are going to be patient, but damn you are making it tough.

Coby Mayo BAL, 1B/3B, 22.9 – 0 for 2 with 2 K’s and I think we can now officially say that Mayo’s pro debut is a disaster. He has a negative 6 wRC+ with a .086 BA and 47.5% K%. I’m staying patient here too, but the Baby Birds tried to leave the nest to take their first flight, and they fell flat on their faces. Don’t sell low on either this off-season, but it’s not the debut we wanted to see.

Noelvi Marte CIN, 3B, 22.11 – 0 for 3 with 2 K’s as it hasn’t gotten better for Marte all season either. I tried to give him some benefit of the doubt to shake off the rust early, but all I see is more rust. It’s a straight disaster across the board with a 86.5 MPH EV (91.3 MPH in 2023) and 32.9/3.8 K%/BB% (20.3/6.9 in 2023). He even got slower with a 4.3 HP to 1B time in 2023 vs. a 4.43 time this year. To me, that indicates that maybe we have to take seriously the possibility that he actually was cheating, and it wasn’t just a case of trying to heal quicker or something like that. That is a drop off in power, speed, and plate approach. He almost can’t be worse next year, and he’s still young, so I’m definitely not writing him off, but I’m not targeting him this off-season either.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on August 12, 2024August 12, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/12/24)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/12/24):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-AUGUST TOP 327 PROSPECTS RANKS (8/9/24)
-MID-SEASON TOP 422 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (7/12/24)
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS (7/19/24)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/31/24)
-TOP 11 MID-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (6/25/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

Jac Caglionone KCR, 1B/LHP, 21.6 – In the last Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown, I wrote that “those insanely inflated college stats from all these guys are about to get a cold splash right to the face. I’m buzzing with nervous excitement for all these guys to debut. You can’t hide behind metal bats and freshman pitchers anymore.” … and while it’s still early, some of them aren’t only getting a cold splash to the face, they are going full ice bucket challenge on us. Jac threw up an 0 for 4 day with 3 K’s yesterday, and he’s now sporting a .150 BA, 64 wRC+, and 31.8% K% in 5 games at High-A. You ain’t in Kansas, er, Florida, anymore Jac, you are in Davenport, Iowa, and you are not adjusting well, so far. 5 games is still insanely early and these are human beings going through a major life change, playing for a new team, new coaches, new teammates, new bats, new balls, new cities etc … definitely don’t overrate just 5 games, but also, college is over.

Travis Bazzana CLE, 2B, 21.11 – Bazzana got shipped out to Eastlake, Ohio, and he’s having that same ice bucket crash on his head, going 0 for 4 with 2 K’s yesterday. He’s now sporting a .156 BA, 101 wRC+, and 33.3% K% in 9 games at High-A. A little better than Jac, but ain’t nothing like the nonstop destruction of college where everyone was hitting a homer every other game. This brings me no joy to report. I just read the news … You stay classy San Diego, I’m Ron Burgundy?

Charlie Condon COL, 3B/1B/OF, 21.5 – Sorry Charlie, but you can’t escape either after going 0 for 4 with 2 K’s yesterday. You are now sporting a 40.9%/4.5% K%/BB% in 5 games at High-A. Granted it comes with a 131 wRC+, but the hit tool was the one concern here, and well, it’s still a concern. This isn’t me panicking on these guys by any means. Don’t get it twisted. This is just me watching, and going, hmmmmmmm …

Kaelen Culpepper MIN, SS, 21.8 – Let me try to turn that frown upside down, because Culpepper is someone starting to get me really excited with his pro debut. Here is what I wrote in his Top 57 FYPD Rankings (Patreon) blurb, ranking him 33rd overall, “He reminds me a lot of Minnesota’s 2nd round pick in 2023, Luke Keaschall, who has similar size, speed, and feel to hit. Nothing jumps off the screen, but they get the job done in all facets of the game. Minnesota has had a lot of success with Keaschall, and Culpepper looks to be next.” … and Culpepper is living up to that comp. Keaschall had an explosive pro debut, and so is Culpepper, going 2 for 5 with a double yesterday, and is now 5 for 13 with 2 doubles, 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 1/2 K/BB in 3 games at Single-A. Here is video of his first pro homer with the ball exploding off his bat. 33rd already feels too low. He’s moving into the early to mid 20’s for me right now.

Nick Kurtz OAK, 1B, 21.4 – Kurtz got his pro career started on Saturday at Single-A, and he cracked his first pro homer in game one. He’s doing his thing with a .500 OBP and 241 wRC+ in 2 games. Keep in mind that Jac, Condon, and Bazzana are all at High-A, while Culpepper and Kurtz are at Single-A, and at this point of the season in particular, I do think that is a nice size jump in difficulty level.

Christian Moore LAA, 2B, 21.9 – And how can I not mention Christian Moore right now, even though he didn’t play yesterday. He needed a break from hitting all those homers I guess with 6 homers in 8 games, and 5 homers in 6 games at Double-A. He’s looking at the struggles of the guys getting drafted before him and laughing. We all already knew he was going to be up with the big league club in no time, and now that’s a foregone conclusion. The only question is, how far is he going to rise in off-season First Year Player Drafts. Would it be crazy to take him 1st overall at this point? No. But would I take him first overall? … … … … … I don’t know, don’t make me answer that right now ;). I was already super high on him though, ranking him 38th overall on the Updated Top 327 Dynasty Prospects Rankings that just dropped on the Patreon last week.

Spencer Schwellenbach ATL, RHP, 23.10 – I should just start calling these the Monday Morning Schwellenbach Rundown, because Schwellebach shoves, pushes, kicks, punches, and karate chops every Sunday, and then every Monday I sing his praises. He did it again yesterday, going 6 IP with 6 hits, 2 ER, and a 7/2 K/BB vs. COL. The fastball sat 96.3 MPH and dominated with a 30% whiff% and 85.8 MPH EV against. The splitter, curveball, and slider all racked up whiffs too, leading to a 37% whiff% on the day. He now has a 3.09 xERA (3.95 ERA) with a 26.8%/4.2% K%/BB% in 70.2 IP. I officially rang the Major Target bell back on July 22nd’s Monday Rundown, writing, “Schwellenbach is officially one of the most exciting young starters in the game, and is a major target if you can buy off his inflated 4.62 ERA.” He just keeps rising and needs to be valued as around a Top 100 overall dynasty asset.

Jeffrey Springs TBR, LHP, 31.11 – 5 IP, 6 hits, 1 ER, 8/0 K/BB against the tough Orioles lineup. That looks like vintage Springs right there, and it only took his 3rd start back from Tommy John surgery to see it. The fastball only sat 90.3 MPH, which is about a tick+ down from pre surgery, but it got the job done with a 26% whiff% and 38% CSW%. It was the changeup that really dominated though with a 67% whiff%, leading to a 42% whiff% on the day. Missing bats and throwing the ball over the plate is what he does. I wouldn’t say he looks in prime form, but this is a very encouraging outing to say he is headed in the right direction. I was all about taking the Tommy John discount on him, and while he might not take off this season, I can see 2025 being a big year for him after a full normal off-season to truly round back into form.

DL Hall MIL, LHP, 25.11 – I’ve never seen a pitcher who can just so easily gain like 2+ MPH of velocity after one trip on the IL. Hall was sitting low 90’s early in the year in 2023 in the minors, went on the IL, and then came back throwing mid 90’s. And now he’s done the exact same thing this year, throwing low 90’s early in the season, hitting the IL with a knee injury, and now returning at 94.6 MPH last night. Is he just chillin during the off-season? Hunting, fishing, Bud Light .. and then he gets to camp and goes, oh shit? He went 4.2 IP with 5 hits, 3 ER, and a 9/3 K/BB vs. CIN. Along with the fastball, the velocity was way up on all of his pitches, and it allowed him to re-find his bat missing ability with a 31% whiff%. He obviously still didn’t pitch well, and he didn’t pitch well at Triple-A either with the newfound velocity, so I’m far from jumping back in. But at least it makes him interesting again. Keep an eye out.

Zyhir Hope LAD, OF, 19.7 – Hope got hit with the dreaded out of sight, out of mind hype dry up when he was out with a shoulder injury, but he’s been back at Single-A for a couple weeks, and he’s firmly back in sight and back in mind. He went 2 for 3 with a double and a homer last night. He’s right back to raking since returning from the injury, slashing .362/.516/.596 with 3 homers, 1 steal, and a 21%/17.7% K%/BB% in 13 games. I held strong on his ranking throughout the injuries, checking in at #92 on the Updated Top 427 Prospect Rankings, and he might now be sneaking into Top 75 range again.

Jhonny Severino PIT, SS, 19.9 – Severino just snuck on those Updated Rankings at #320, writing, “Big upside bat with big power, but he’s done most of his damage this year in rookie ball as a 19 year old … I just don’t love shopping in the 19 year old rookie ball breakout aisle.” But he’s not in rookie ball anymore, and he keeps on crushing it, going the opposite way for his first homer in 9 games at Single-A. He now has a 147 wRC+ with a 24.4%/9.8% K%/BB% at the level. The longer he keeps it up at Single-A, the faster his hype train will pick up speed.

Tai Peete SEA, SS/3B, 19.0 – Peete isn’t having the best season at Single-A with a 92 wRC+ in 94 games, but keep in mind that he was an 18 year old for almost the entire season. He turned 19 yesterday, and he celebrated his birthday in style, going 1 for 3 with a homer and a steal. So he may have been mediocre as an 18 year old at the level, but as a 19 year old, he has a 1.833 OPS. His game power has been coming on strong for a little while now with 6 homers in his last 33 games. This is still a super toolsy, super exciting prospect even if the full explosion hasn’t happened this year.

Robert Calaz COL, OF, 18.9 – Speaking of 18 year old’s at Single-A, Calaz has had no issues since being called up, absolutely obliterating a 455 foot, 109 MPH blast out of the ballpark for his first homer at the level. He finished the day 2 for 3 with a homer and a steal. He now has a 148 wRC+ with a 25%/10% K%/BB% in 10 games. He is on the fast track to be an elite power hitting prospect by this time next year. He entered the Top 100 Prospects at #97, and that number will keep rising.

Welbyn Francisca CLE, SS, 18.3 – Francisca doesn’t have the raw power of Calaz, but it didn’t stop him from also jacking out his first homer in 9 games at Single-A as an 18 year old. He had himself a day, going 3 for 4 with a double, homer and walk. He now has a 196 wRC+ in 9 games, and he is showing more than enough power this year (7 homers in 54 games) to let his hit/plate approach/speed profile shine. He checked in at #116 on the Updated Rankings.

Dillon Dingler DET, C, 25.11 – It’s a Dinger for Dingler, and it’s his first MLB homer, smashing a 107.9 MPH, 406 bomb off Hayden Birdsong. He also tacked on a 104.3 MPH double. It’s his first good game in the majors with a .727 OPS in 7 games, but the underlying numbers look standout right now with a 11.8% Barrel%, 92.7 MPH EV, 14.8 degree launch, .438 xwOBA, and 26.9% K%. The hit tool is definitely still a risk with a shaky at best hit tool throughout his career, but the power looks so sincere.

Kristian Campbell BOS, 2B/OF, 22.2 – Campbell might be THE 2024 breakout, and he’s only picking up steam after homering in his 3rd straight game at Double-A. He’s now slashing .380/.484/.592 with 7 homers, 17 steals, and a 14.8%/14.3% K%/BB% in 49 games. That is good for a 203 wRC+, and that is not a small sample. My goodness gracious. I’ve never said my goodness gracious in my life, but I feel like this is the right time to whip that one out. He might be a Top 10 prospect by the end of the season if he isn’t there already.

Agustin Ramirez MIA, C, 22.11 – Ramirez is starting to get comfortable in his new digs, and he’s starting to get comfortable at Triple-A too after going deep for his 2nd homer in 10 games since the trade, to go along with a 165 wRC+ and 10.5%/13.6% K%/BB%. He’s now on a beeline for Miami’s starting catcher job with plus power and a solid plate approach.

Quinn Mathews STL, LHP, 23.10 – 5 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 6/2 K/BB at Double-A. That is Mathews third gem in a row at Double-A, and he’s now dominating the level with a 3.11 ERA and 29.9%/8.9% K%/BB% in 37.2 IP. The stuff backs up the results with a mid 90’s fastball and 2 plus secondaries in his slider and change. He’s got the size too at 6’5”. He creeping up into near elite pitching prospect range at this point.

Ben Casparius LAD, RHP, 25.6 – Casparius had his best outing since getting the call to Triple-A, going 6 IP with 5 hits, 0 ER, and a 8/0 K/BB. The fastball sat 95 MPH, the slider notched a 42% whiff, and the cutter notched a 60% whiff%. He now has a 3.54 ERA with a 25.7%/12.2% K%/BB% in 56 IP. The lack of control and the insanely deep rotation in LA (including all of the injured guys) makes me think Casparius ends up in the bullpen, but he certainly has the stuff and proximity to keep an eye on.

Carter Johnson MIA, SS, 18.5 – Hit tool first high school prospects aren’t my favorite to go after, and neither are hitting prospects drafted by the Marlins. Johnson got the double up on that one, and he’s struggling in pro ball. He went 0 for 5 with 4 K’s yesterday and now has 0 homers, 0 steals, a 86 wRC+ and 33.3% K% in 7 games at Single-A. To be fair, in previous years, he would have been assigned to stateside rookie ball first, where he would have the opportunity to hit like .400 for 9 games before getting the call to Single-A. But with the rookie ball season ending earlier now, these high school bats don’t have that luxury. Just look at the college bats struggling to adjust to pro ball in the lower minors. You have to give high school bats even more leeway there.

Noelvi Marte CIN, 3B, 22.11 – 0 for 4 with 3 K’s. He now has a 40 wRC+ in 36 games. I think I speak for all Noelvi owners, get back on that juice. It’s worth the risk 😉 (one silver lining to leave you with, his EV is back up to 89 MPH in his last 24 games, so better days are ahead)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-AUGUST TOP 327 PROSPECTS RANKS (8/9/24)
-MID-SEASON TOP 422 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (7/12/24)
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS (7/19/24)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/31/24)
-TOP 11 MID-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (6/25/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on July 29, 2024July 31, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning, er, Afternoon, Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/29/24)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 11 MID-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (6/25/24)
-MID-SEASON TOP 422 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (7/12/24)
-JUNE TOP 305 PROSPECTS RANKS (new update coming next week)
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS (7/19/24)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/31/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

Travis Bazzana CLE, 2B, 21.11 – And away we go. The 2024 MLB Draft pro debuts have officially kicked off. This is where excitement and hype can go to die with a rough go of it (Jacob Berry and Chase Davis say hi), or absolutely balloon to elite levels with utter dominance (Wyatt Langford). It’s exciting and scary all at the same time. Lots can change between now and the end of the season, and with how tight it is with the top talent of the draft, a shake up can definitely happen. Bazzana is up first, making his debut at High-A, and he’s already getting his first taste of reality with a 57.1%/0.0% K%/BB% in 2 games. He had two games all season in college where he struck out multiple times and didn’t walk once, and now he’s done that in his first two games of pro ball. It’s sooooooooo early, so obviously don’t even give it a second thought right now, but those insanely inflated college stats from all these guys are about to get a cold splash right to the face. I’m buzzing with nervous excitement for all these guys to debut. You can’t hide behind metal bats and freshman pitchers anymore.

Jazz Chisholm NYY, OF, 26.6 – Hello short porch. You couldn’t have asked for a better landing spot for Jazz. His Statcast expected homer total for this year at Yankee Stadium is 19. He has 13 on the year and his expected total at Miami is 14. I know he isn’t a lift and pull maniac, but this move is a major upgrade for fantasy without even taking into account the much better lineup. He already stole a bag in his first game with the team, giving him 23 steals in 102 games. His plate approach is much improved this year with a career best 24.8%/9.0% K%/BB%. He hits the ball hard with a 10.6% Barrel%. And now he enters the perfect ballpark to maximize his game power. Jazz owners have to be over the moon right now.

Isaac Paredes CHC, 1B/3B, 25.5 – … and Paredes owners have to be whatever the opposite of over the moon is. Under the sun? His weak EV, lift and pull profile was tailored made for Tampa, but now he’s headed to a below average ballpark for righty homers. He has a Statcast expected 11 homers this year with Chicago. It almost feels too easy to say that his numbers are going to drop off immediately. He’s 0 for 8 in his career at Wrigley (obviously silly small sample). He has a .752 OPS away from the Trop this year (.830 at the Trop). I’m not sure how this could be seen as anything but a major downgrade.

Christopher Morel TBR, OF/3B, 25.2 – Just watch Morel immediately start to play to his underlying numbers with Tampa. It’s not hard to see what Tampa saw with a .346 xwOBA vs. .298 wOBA. He hits the ball hard enough where he isn’t completely ballpark dependent, but this is still a ballpark upgrade for him, and I don’t think Tampa would have made this deal if they didn’t intend on playing him nearly everyday. I feel much more comfortable about Morel’s long term playing time in Tampa than I did with Chicago. This is an upgrade for Morel.

Matt Shaw CHC, 2B/SS, 22.9 The biggest loser of this trade seems to be Shaw. His path to playing time just got a whole lot murkier, and it seems to indicate Chicago is planning on taking it nice and slow with his development. He’ll have to settle for hitting lasers in the upper minors like he did last night for his 13th homer in 80 games at Double-A. I have no idea where he fits in now, or where their 2024 first rounder, 3B Cam Smith, fits in either. Depth is great for real life, but a pain in the ass for fantasy.

Dylan Lesko TBR, RHP, 20.11 – I can’t decide if Tampa fleeced San Diego in the Jason Adam for Dylan Lesko deal, or if everyone is still falling in love with the idea of Dylan Lesko rather than the reality of him. He has a 6.46 ERA with a 25%/16.5% K%/BB% in 69.2 IP at High-A. That is quite bad. But the stuff is still really good with three potentially plus pitches in his mid 90’s fastball, nasty breaking ball, and his famously filthy changeup. This was still just his first full season coming off Tommy John, and also his first full healthy season in pro ball. It’s completely reasonable to expect growing pains, and if anyone can develop Lesko, it’s Tampa. This feels like breathing new life into Lesko’s dynasty value which was quickly evaporating.

Spencer Schwellenbach ATL, RHP, 24.2 – In last weeks’ Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown, I wrote, “Schwellenbach is officially one of the most exciting young starters in the game, and is a major target if you can buy off his inflated 4.62 ERA (3.74 xERA). He has the big velocity, he has the big pitch mix, he has plus control, he induces weak contact, he has above average whiffs, and he has three plus secondaries. He’s starting to look like a young near ace.” … but after Saturday’s outing, that buy window is most likely slammed shut, going 7 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 11/0 K/BB. The fastball sat 96.9 MPH and put up a 38% whiff%. The slider dominated as his most used pitch with a 33% usage and 67% whiff%. And again he used a legit 6 pitch mix. He deserves to be talked about with some of the best young breakouts in the game with a 3.26 xERA (4.06 ERA) and 25.5%/4.3% K%/BB% in 57.2 IP.

Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 25.10 – I’ve been pounding the buy drum on Cruz for years now, through injuries, strikeout problems, the slow start to this year … all of it. And it’s starting to pay off now. He cracked a 109.2 MPH homer yesterday for his 17th of the season, and he’s now slashing .320/.381/.667 with 6 homers, 3 steals, and a 27/7 K/BB in his last 20 games. A 95.2 MPH EV is just absurd, and it’s the 3rd best mark in baseball behind only Judge and Ohtani. His 28.7 ft/sec sprint is in the top 13% of the league. And his 31.9% K% isn’t too horrible. We can work with that when you have this level of truly elite talent. He didn’t budge on the Mid-Season Top 422 Dynasty Rankings (Patreon) at #40 overall, and we might be looking at a Top 20 ish dynasty asset by the end of the season if he can keep up this hot streak.

Xavier Edwards MIA, 2B/OF, 25.0 – Edwards “jacked” his first homer of the year at a lowly 96.3 MPH, but it was enough to clear the fence, and it was also enough to hit for the cycle on a 4 for 4 day … plus a walk. I feel like there should be a name for hitting for the cycle and also getting a walk. Hitting for The Unicycle? Hitting for The Cycle with a Sidecar? Ha, I like Cycle with a Sidecar. That works. Either way, Edwards has been excellent this season, slashing .379/.462/.494 with 1 homer, 8 steals, and a 15.2%/14.3% K%/BB% in 25 games. His 88.2 MPH EV is mighty impressive considering it sat at 82.2 MPH in 2023, although a 2.7% Barrel% is probably a better representation of how hard he can actually hit the ball. The plate approach is elite and he’s an excellent base stealer. It’s a Steven Kwan/Nico Hoerner-esque profile which we have obviously seen work in the majors. I wouldn’t buy in too hard, but he’s establishing himself as an interesting contact/speed player.

Gavin Lux LAD, 2B/OF, 26.8 – The Dodgers showed the patience of a saint with Lux, and it’s been paying off of late. He went 1 for 2 with 3 walks and a 98.1 MPH homer off Spencer Arrighetti. He’s now slashing .425/.500/.825 with 4 homers, 1 steal, and a 11/5 K/BB in his last 46 PA. The 88 MPH EV and 6.9% Barrel% over that time period still isn’t exactly knocking my socks off, so I’m still struggling to get too excited. I’m not seeing a monster explosion coming here. It seems like he’s rounding back into his really boring fantasy player form that he showed before going down with the knee injury.

Jhonkensy Noel CLE, 1B/3B/OF, 23.0 – 3 for 4 with a 109.6 MPH homer off Kolby Allard. I remember when Kolby Allard was a hyped high school prospect, but now he is just bottom of the roster fodder for guys like Noel to juice up their stats on. He has a career 6.11 ERA in 249 IP to go along wi … oh wait, this blurb is about Noel. My prospect nostalgia/where are they now got the best of me for a second there. As for Noel, he is exactly as advertised with 6 homers, a 91.1 MPH EV, and 35.4%/4.6% K%/BB% in 65 MLB PA. The 31.2% whiff% is better than the K rate, which is encouraging, and so is the .363 xwOBA. He’s also sneaky athletic with an above average 27.8 ft/sec sprint, and while he’s not going to steal bases, it’s still nice to see. Noel’s value continues to rise, and I would value him as a Top 300-ish dynasty asset right now.

Michael Toglia COL, 1B/OF, 25.11 – It’s hard to call the Toglia breakout anything but legit at this point (and it looks mighty similar to what Noel is doing) with him launching a 105.2 MPH homer for his 18th in 61 games. The 92.5 MPH EV and 17.5% Barrel% very clearly backs up the explosion, and a 32.3% K% is workable when you are hitting the ball that hard (and when you play at Coors). He’s a good athlete too with an above average 27.6 ft/sec sprint. The BA is obviously still a major risk, and it sits at .215 right now, so I’m certainly not going too crazy, but this does look like a legit leveling up for Toglia.

Hayden Birdsong SFG, RHP, 22.11 – 5 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 8/3 K/BB vs. COL. Well, at least we can be certain that Birdsong can beat the Rockies, throwing back to back dominant outings vs them. The fastball sat 95.9 MPH and put up a 29% whiff%, while all three secondaries (slider, change, curve) racked up whiffs for a 39% whiff% overall. His 4 starts vs non Rockies teams were not as smooth, so it would be nice to see him do this against a better lineup before crowning him, but it’s still an exciting start to Birdsong’s career. He now has a 2.97 ERA with a 30.2%/11.9% K%/BB% in 30.1 IP. His 34.8% whiff% is elite.

River Ryan LAD, RHP, 26.0 – 5.2 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 8/3 K/BB vs. HOU. The fastball sat 96.1 MPH with a respectable 22% whiff%. The breaking balls missed a ton of bats, leading to a 33% whiff% overall, and the sinker dominated with a 78.8 MPH EV against and 29% whiff%. He’s looked electric since returning from missing most of the season with shoulder fatigue, and while he was solid in his first MLB outing, he took it to another level in this one, showing off the bat missing ability. He already rose to #356 overall on the Mid-Season Top 422 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon) before he had even made his MLB debut, and now I think he’s easily within the Top 300.

DJ Herz WAS, LHP, 23.7 – 5 IP, 3 hit, 2 ER, 8/1 K/BB vs. STL. The 93.8 MPH fastball put up a 56% whiff% and it’s been a great pitch all season with a 35.1% whiff% and .251 xwOBA. His 6.6% BB% in 41.1 IP is extremely impressive considering how badly he struggled with his control in the minors. The 4.79 ERA doesn’t look great, but the 3.31 xERA looks much better. Herz was a former favorite of mine, and while I hesitate to think he can truly keep up this level of control, we know that pitcher development isn’t linear. He’s still just 23 year old, so it wouldn’t be shocking if he was taking a real step forward. While I wouldn’t give up very much for him right now, he’s definitely worth a shot in all league sizes, and if you can get him on the cheap or as a throw in as part of a bigger deadline deal, that would be perfect. There is definitely something here.

Hyun-Seok Jang LAD, RHP, 20.4 – 3 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER, 8/1 K/BB at rookie ball in the ACL championship series. It’s been an up and down first year of pro ball for Jang, but this is the type of dominance he is capable of when his control is on. He’s an absolute strikeout machine with 57 K’s in just 27.1 IP on the season, and the stuff is no joke with him getting up to 99 MPH. He is obviously still a bit of a project with a 8.14 ERA and 16.1% BB% in 24.1 IP during the regular season, but I trust the Dodgers to get the most of his talent. The breakout didn’t come this year, but I still like him a ton, and I think it’s coming down the line.

Connor Norby BAL, 2B/OF, 24.2 – 0 for 3 with 3 K’s and is now 0 for his last 10 … this is not how you entice Detroit or Chicago to want you in a trade for Skubal or Crochet.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on July 22, 2024July 27, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/22/24)

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Max Clark DET, OF, 19.7 – The stupendous 2023 MLB Draft class is casting such a long shadow that all anyone can talk about is how crappy the 2024 Draft class is in comparison, and while I would argue they are being too harsh, especially for fantasy, (check out the 2025 Top 57 FYPD Rankings that just dropped on Patreon last week), the 2023 class is out here teaching the 2024 class how it’s done in pro ball. Clark just homered his way into a promotion to High-A, going 3 for 4 with a laser shot into the License to Chill Lounge. He tacked on a double and stolen base in his final game at Single-A. He earned that promotion with 7 homers, 26 steals, a 133 wRC+, and 17.4%/14.4% K%/BB% in 73 games. That is fully living up to his hype, and the final step to superstardom will be naturally gaining strength and raising his launch (48.6% GB%), although he has the type of profile that can thrive with a low launch. He isn’t even one of the truly most hyped names in the class …

Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 22.5 – Speaking of one of the most hyped names in the class, arguably too hyped, Crews is out here working to put some shine back on his name, utterly destroying a 409 foot, 103.3 MPH bomb for his 4th in 23 games at the level. The 97 wRC+ might not be super impressive, but 4 homers with 5 steals, a 16.8%/9.7% K%/BB% and 89.2 MPH EV looks pretty damn good to me. With all the hand wringing over Crews and ball washing over Langford, it would be pretty funny if Crews took MLB by storm when he got his chance and passed Langford again. Langford has been coming on of late, but his season line is still quite beatable.

Walker Jenkins MIN, OF, 19.5 – The mega hyped Jenkins had a hammy delay his full take off, but he’s been healthy and in a groove for a little while now, going 2 for 4 with 2 walks and a steal yesterday. He now has a 140 wRC+ on the back of a 12.5%/19.5% K%/BB% in 28 games at Single-A. It’s great to see how advanced of a hitter he is, but we have enough elite plate approach weaklings to go around, we need him to start doing some real damage. Only 2 homers with a 87.3 MPH EV is lackluster. We know he has the raw power in the tank at 6’3”, 210 pounds, so I don’t doubt it’s coming, but it would be nice to see some more of it.

Brice Matthews HOU, SS, 22.4 – Matthews didn’t get the hype of the aforementioned names, unless you read my work this off-season which named Matthews as one of my favorite FYPD targets, and he’s more than delivered. He went 2 for 4 with 2 steals and an absolute NUC out to deep centerfield that hit off the cotton press. Why they have a cotton press in centerfield is anyone’s guess, but the announcer was hyped that he hit it. He’s homered in back to back games at Double-A, and now has 4 homers, 6 steals, and a 125 wRC+ in 25 games at the level. The 34.1% K% is definitely too high and adds a healthy does of risk, but he’s proving his upside is no joke, and you have to be happy with this performance compared to his very reasonable FYPD price.

Arjun Nimmala TOR, SS, 18.9 – Nimmala was down on the mat to start the year, simply not looking ready for pro ball, but that was understandable considering how young he was for the class, and now that he’s found a groove, it’s been a homer fest. He drilled his 3rd homer in 6 games at Single-A, and since getting recalled to the level, he’s put up a 1.042 OPS with 4 homers in 16 games. The 32.8% K% over that time period still shows the rawness in his game, but a 110 wRC+ in 45 games on the season is quite impressive for a legit 18 year old. The power is very real, and with more refinement, a true explosion could be coming in 2025.

Hayden Birdsong SFG, RHP, 22.11 – The only thing thinner than Colorado’s air is their lineup, and Birdsong came into Coors and sliced his way through both the air and the lineup, going 6 IP with 2 hits, 2 ER, and a 12/2 K/BB. The breaking pitches were working just fine in that air with a 63% whiff% on the curve and 59% whiff% on the slider. The non breaking pitches were working just fine too with a 57% whiff% on the 95.8 MPH fastball and 50% whiff% on the changeup. He dominated in every facet of the game, and his MLB debut is looking pretty good now with a 3.55 ERA and 28.3%/11.3% K%/BB% in 25.1 IP. His 33.7% whiff% is in the elite range. Birdsong has been underrated for a while now, but a start like this will start to turn people’s head. The below average control certainly adds risk, but he has the type of stuff and swing and miss to overcome that. I’ve been relatively high on Birdsong for over a year now, and I love what I see with his MLB debut. I’m still buying.

Spencer Schwellenbach ATL, RHP, 24.2 – Schwellenbach is officially one of the most exciting young starters in the game, and is a major target if you can buy off his inflated 4.62 ERA (3.74 xERA). He had another impressive outing yesterday, going 6 IP with 7 hits, 4 ER, and a 8/0 K/BB vs. STL. The fastball sat 95.7 MPH and put up a 29% whiff%. The splitter was devastating with a 64% whiff%. And he used a 6 pitch mix to notch a 34% whiff% overall. He got hit hard in this one with a 93.3 MPH EV, but he hasn’t been hit hard this season with a 4.7% Barrel% against. He just rose to #212 overall on the Mid-Season Top 422 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), finishing his blurb by writing, “He looks damn good. I would buy off the high ERA if you can.” He has the big velocity, he has the big pitch mix, he has plus control, he induces weak contact, he has above average whiffs, and he has three plus secondaries. #212 might not even be high enough, he might be worthy of knocking on the door of the Top 100 area right now. He’s starting to look like a young near ace.

Drew Thorpe CHW, RHP, 23.10 – 6 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 5/2 K/BB vs. KC. The filthy changeup is just impossible to pick up with a 43% whiff%. It really acts more like knuckleball. It can really end up anywhere with multiple different movement profiles. It’s pretty wild and it’s befuddled MLB hitters with a .246 xwOBA and 38.8% whiff% on the season. It’s led to a 3.03 ERA with a 15.4%/10.9% K%/BB% and 86 MPH EV against in 38.2 IP. There is little doubt at this point the changeup will play against the best hitters in the world. It wasn’t only the changeup in this game though, the slider also dominated with a 64% whiff%, and that pitch has also been good with a .293 xwOBA (.176 wOBA) and 30% whiff%. I struggle to fully buy in with such a mediocre K/BB rate, but this is essentially a knuckleballer+ profile, and knuckleballer’s can definitely get the job done without great K/BB rates. I’m buying in more and more, but I still see limited upside in the long run.

Brandon Pfaadt ARI, RHP, 25.9 – 7 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 7/1 K/BB vs. CHC. He did what he does best which is double plus control of a good fastball, to go along with two good secondaries in his sweeper and changeup. I named him a major target in my Top 11 Mid-Season Dynasty Baseball Targets article (Patreon), and since then he has a 0.77 ERA with a 25/3 K/BB in 23.1 IP. Not bad. I hope you bought when the price was reasonable.

James Wood WAS, OF, 21.10 – Wood cooled off a bit from his blazing start in the majors, but he was back at it yesterday, going 2 for 4 with a 105.9 MPH homer off lefty Justin Wilson. That wasn’t even his hardest hit ball of the day, it was his 3rd hardest hit ball with a 109 MPH lineout and 107.2 MPH single off lefty Andrew Abbott. He now has a 12.2% Barrel% and 93.5 MPH EV in 17 games. The 33.3% K% and negative 7.6 degree launch is definitely showing off some rawness, and he’s not a finished product, but nothing is dissuading me from thinking Wood is a future superstar. He crushes the ball too hard, and he’s shown in the minors he can improve his hit tool. The explosion might not be coming this year, but it’s coming.

Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 20.4 – I’m not going to say Chourio has fully arrived, because there is another level in here he hasn’t even started to scratch yet, but he’s certainly getting closer after going 2 for 4 with a 108.6 MPH double off Joe Ryan and 107.7 MPH, 443 foot homer off Jorge Alcala. He’s now slashing .314/.368/.512 with 5 homers, 5 steals, and a 17.3%/8.3% K%/BB% in his last 36 games. Everything in his underlying numbers is setting a super strong foundation for him to build on in future years. He’s right on track, just give him another year or so.

Leodalis De Vries SDP, SS, 17.9 – It’s not just the 2023 Draft class that was impressive, the international class was special too, and De Vries has been exploding into elite prospect status right before our eyes. He cracked his 7th homer in 54 games at Single-A with that beautiful and powerful swing that straight up looks MLB ready. He now has a .976 OPS with 7 homers, 6 steals, and a 20/13 K/BB in his last 19 games. He ranked 199th overall on those Updated Dynasty Rankings, and that number will just keep climbing.

Zebby Matthews MIN, RHP, 24.2 – Matthews got the call to Triple-A, and he unsurprisingly had no issues in his first start at the level, going 5 IP with 4 hits, 2 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB. The fastball sat 95.3 MPH with a respectable 20% whiff%, the cutter induced weak contact with a 86.8 MPH EV, and the breaking balls missed bats with a 67% whiff% on the curve and 33% whiff% on the slider. I’ve been all over Matthews all season, putting him in the Top 50 on the latest Top 305 Prospects Rankings (new update coming soon on Patreon). He’s walked 6 guys all season in 83 IP, which is dumb. He combines the truly elite control with big velocity, over 30% K rates at each level, and a diverse pitch mix. He’s an elite pitching prospect.

Hunter Barco PIT, LHP, 23.7 – Barco made his first outing at a new level as well, making the big jump to the upper minors at Double-A, and he delivered, going 3 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 5/0 K/BB. I love me a funky lefty, and while Barco’s stuff isn’t huge, he proved it will play just fine in the upper minors. Before Double-A he put up some big numbers at High-A with a 3.34 ERA and 30.4%/8.7% K%/BB% in 62 IP. Pitt has yet another really really good arm in the stable. I would value Barco as at least a Top 200 prospect, and he might be sneaking into the Top 150 area now.

Jarlin Susana WASH, RHP, 20.4 – Susuna has the Hunter Greene starter pack with an upper 90’s fastball and plus slider, and while that pack has been sitting in the plastic for awhile, he’s been starting to put it together of late. He made his 2nd outing at High-A and looked good, going 5 IP with 4 hits, 3 ER, and a 7/1 K/BB. That walk rate is the most important thing to watch, and he now has a 29.3%/7.3% K%/BB% in 10 IP at the level. Over his last 40 IP at Single-A and High-A, he’s put up a 1.58 ERA and 40.1%/9.2% K%/BB%. That is exactly the type of breakout we have been waiting for. There is still control/bullpen risk, but I don’t see how this type of talent isn’t a Top 100 prospect with what he’s been doing of late. He needs to be owned in every league.

Justyn-Henry Malloy DET, 3B/OF, 24.1 – Malloy went 1 for 3 with a walk and walloped a 104 MPH homer off Kevin Gausman for his 6th in 35 games. He’s been extra hot of late with a 1.060 OPS, 4 homers, and a 13/7 K/BB in his last 14 games. He’s showing the power will play in the majors with a 11.1% Barrel%, but I don’t quite trust that the BA will be good enough to sustain a full time job long term. The 20.2 degree launch is extreme and so is the 35.5% whiff%. The .187 xBA is scary. It’s hard not to say that the MLB debut has been a success, but I would still have some caution before buying too high here.

Lawrence Butler OAK, OF, 24.0 – The underlying numbers were screaming that a breakout was coming Butler’s first time around in the majors, and after a reset at Triple-A, the breakout is here. He’s been a hit machine since returning to the majors, going 2 for 3 with a double and 2 walks yesterday, and is now slashing .385/.439/.885 with 7 homers, 2 steals, and a 13/5 K/BB in his last 15 games. He has a 92.2 MPH EV, 11.7% Barrel%, and a .340 xwOBA. The 28.5%/9.7% K%/BB% ain’t that bad. I’ve loved Butler for awhile now, and stayed patient through his surface stats struggles. It’s paying off in a big way now. I’m buying.

Michael King SDP, RHP, 29.2 – King’s slow start to the season dug a deep hole for his hype that he’s been trying to climb out of all season, but I think it’s high time to acknowledge that the dominant run he went on to close the 2023 season was no fluke. Dude has been performing like a true ace for almost 3 months now. He once again put on a dominant performance vs. CLE, going 7 IP with 2 hits, 1 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB. He led with the changeup up in this one with a 41% usage, and it was unhittable with a 55% whiff% and 70.4 MPH EV against. The 4 seamer and sweeper were spotless as well with a 36% whiff% and 60% whiff%, respectively. It led to a 75.8% MPH EV against and 45% whiff% on the day. the jumped to 130th overall on those Updated Top 422 Dynasty Rankings (Patreon), and I don’t think a placement inside the Top 100 is unwarranted at this point. He’s starting to cement near ace status.

Drue Hackenburg ATL, RHP, 22.4 – I’ve been talking a lot of shit about the Hackenburg family lately after what Christian Hackenburg did to me as a Jets and Nittany Lions fan, but Drue went out and put some respect back on his family name yesterday, going 7 IP with 3 hits, 1 ER, and a 16/0 K/BB at Double-A. I mean, wow, what a performance. Here are the highlights of the dominance. He now has a 3.43 ERA with a 35.9%/12% K%/BB% in 21 IP at the level. It’s still not good enough to convince me to go after him though. For me, it’s personal, it’s not business 😉

Shane Baz TBR, RHP, 25.0 – 3.1 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 1/5 K/BB vs. NYY. The slider didn’t induce a single whiff and he put up a lowly 12% whiff% on the day. He now has a 6.78 xERA with a 19%/11.1% K%/BB% in 13.2 IP. Clearly, something isn’t right. This is why you have to factor in some added risk for pitchers coming off Tommy John. And it’s often their 2nd year back that they return to form, rather than their first year back. This isn’t going to be a smooth ride back to full health, and I think it’s fair to start worrying, but in the long run, I would try to stay patient.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 11 MID-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (6/25/24)
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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on June 24, 2024June 28, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (6/24/24)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 11 MID-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (6/25/24)
-JUNE TOP 305 PROSPECTS RANKS (6/14/24)
-MAY TOP 414 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (5/24/24) (new Update coming next week)
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-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

Luken Baker STL, 1B, 27.3 – Baker is my favorite sneaky stash right now, and my favorite candidate to be the next Christian Walker/Max Muncy/Jesus Aguilar (okay, Aguilar might digging a little deep there, but he had some good seasons). Point being, guys in the Baker bucket can definitely breakout and become legit fantasy contributors. He smashed 2 more homers yesterday, and at 6’4”, 265 pounds, he did it looking like one of those absolute units in the World’s Strongest Man Competition during the wood chopping competition. The dude is country strong, and he used that strength to crack 19 homers in just 65 games at Triple-A. The 91.5 MPH EV backs up the power, not like there was any doubt. The cherry on top is that the contact rates and plate approach are also really good with a 19.8%/14.8% K%/BB%. He’s old for the level, but he’s hit very well in the minors since he entered pro ball at 21. The guy can rake, and with Paul Goldschmidt in his final year under contract, I think there is a path for St. Louis to give Baker a real shot in the future, maybe even at the trade deadline (although with St. Louis climbing back in the race, that might be less likely). Either way, the guy is likely freely available in the vast majority leagues, and there is legit potential for him to make a big impact if he gets the opportunity. I ranked him relatively high at #148 on the Updated Top 305 Prospects Rankings (Patreon).

Matt Shaw CHC, 3B, 22.7 – On the other end of the spectrum from a 6’4”, 265 pound, no hype behemoth, the normal human being sized, fully hyped Matt Shaw, all 5’9”, 185 pounds of him soaking wet, also went deep for 2 bombs. That’s the beauty of baseball. You can be good at any size. It reminds me of that picture of Judge and Altuve standing together. Shaw was having a solid season at Double-A all year, but he’s really come alive of late, slashing .296/.386/.561 with 7 homers, 7 steals, and a 20/15 K/BB in his last 25 games. That is all encompassing dominance in the upper minors, and it sure seems like he’s ready for his next challenge, which will probably be Triple-A. But once he gets to Triple-A, he could get the call at any moment to take over their 3B of the future job. He’s an elite prospect.

Brock Wilken MIL, 3B, 22.0 – Wilken was able to hit only 1 homer yesterday. Pretty lame if you ask me. But at least he was mean enough to absolutely obliterate it deep off the batter’s eye in centerfield. This man steps up to the plate with bad intentions with double plus power. Getting hit in the face with a pitch early in the season kinda put a dent in his season (and his face), but he’s been finding a groove of late with a .871 OPS and 3 homers in his last 16 games at Double-A. The hit tool is a definite risk with a 26.6% K% over that time, but you’re buying the power here, and he has plenty of it at 6’4”, 225 pounds.

George Wolkow CHW, OF, 18.5 – Wolkow looks down and laughs at these 6’4” midgets, standing a proper 6’7”, 239 pounds, and quite frankly, he has the most graceful, athletic swing of them all. Just watch him smoke this homer the opposite way with a mere flick of the wrist. He was one of my favorite prospects this off-season, and he’s been even more “fun” once his season got going with 5 homers, 3 steals, a .798 OPS and a 47% K% in 31 games split between rookie ball and Single-A. The K% jumped to 55.4% at Single-A. That is definitely a silly K rate, and if it makes you want to write him off, I totally get it. But personally, I’m blinded by how great of an athlete he is, and considering he’s still just 18 years old with only 44 pro games under his belt, I want to give him some time to figure it out. He’s the type who can thrive with a 30% K% rate, but obviously he has a long way to go to even get to that point.

Max Scherzer TEX, RHP, 39.10 – Scherzer made his season debut, and while he certainly didn’t look in prime form, the guy still pitched extremely well, going 5 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 4/0 K/BB vs. KCR. He’s the type of guy who will be throwing brushback pitches at 70 years old in the old timers game. The fastball sat only 92.9 MPH, and he only put up a 23% whiff% on the day, but I mean, he just pitched a 1 hitter (in 5 innings) at almost 40 years old coming off back surgery and a thumb injury. Legend stuff right there, and I’m apt to say he’s a target for a win now team. Hopefully his current owner won’t rake you over the coals too much based on name value, but on second thought, maybe he/she should.

Paul Skenes PIT, RHP, 22.0 – The last time I mentioned Skenes in a Rundown I said that would be the last time I mention him, because his dominance is becoming routine, but he’s just too fun not to mention right now. He threw another gem, going 7 IP with 6 hits, 1 ER, and a 8/1 K/BB vs. TBR. He now has a 2.14 ERA with a 33.7%/4.4% K%/BB% in 46.1 IP. Just to not completely bore you with his ascension to greatness, I will mention that he doesn’t really have a no doubt, slam dunk, elite whiff machine secondary. The splitter is the closest one he has, but a .251 xwOBA with a 34.6% whiff% is more in the good territory than truly outstanding. It’s just nitpicking, because what else is there to say other than he’s the top dynasty pitcher in the game.

Josh Lowe TBR, OF, 26.4 – An oblique strain caused Lowe to get off to a rocky start to the season, but he’s now starting to fully back up his 2023 breakout and cement himself as one of the more exciting young players in the game. He went 3 for 4 with a 97.7 MPH groundout, 94.9 MPH single,, 90.7 MPH single, and 87 MPH double. And he wasn’t doing that damage vs anyone, he was doing it off mostly Paul Skenes. He now has 5 homers, 2 steals, a 120 wRC+, a career best 28.8% whiff%, and a career best 14.9% Barrel% in 29 games. By the end of this season, we may be talking about Lowe as an easy Top 50 dynasty asset, and that might be underselling him. He could be ready to erupt.

Jarred Kelenic ATL, OF, 24.10 – Ronald Acuna who? Jarred Kelenic has been on fire since Acuna went down with the injury, going 1 for 3 with a 383 foot homer off Nestor Cortes yesterday. He’s now slashing .297/.338/.554 with 4 homers, 2 steals, and a 20/4 K/BB in his last 21 games. It brings his season wRC+ up to 111. As much as I want to say this is the breakout we’ve all been waiting for, I’m struggling to do that as his plate approach and swing and miss numbers are still rough. He’s also still struggling vs. lefties, although this was his first dinger off a lefty, so maybe he’s even improving in that area too. I’m buying in that he can be a good player and solid fantasy player, but I’m not yet buying in that he’s ready to explode.

Colt Keith DET, 3B/2B, 22.10 – Keith might finally be arriving. I’ve been preaching patience with him because nothing in the underlying numbers looked too bad, and he’s actually been very sneakily blowing up of late, especially after yesterday’s big day. He went 4 for 5 with a homer off essentially Triple-A pitcher Jonathan Cannon. But they all count, and in his last 32 games he’s slashing .321/.357/.486 with 4 homers, 1 steal, and a 18.3% K%. That is the type of complete hitter we expected, and like I mentioned, everything in the underlying numbers look fine with a nearly average .310 xwOBA on the season. If there is still any type of buy window here based on the lowly .628 OPS on the season, I would be all over it.

Echedry Vargas TEX, 2B/SS, 19.3 – Vargas got more than his fair share of hype this off-season as a rookie ball breakout, and after starting off a bit slow in his first real taste of full season ball, he’s been red hot of late. He lifted off for his 5th homer in 42 games on a 4 for 6 day yesterday, and is now slashing .321/.368/.547 with 3 homers, 3 steals, and a 11/3 K/BB in his last 13 games. He’s showing off the power, speed and contact ability. He’s starting to really percolate and the real hype might be just around the corner. It might be time to grab him if he is still available in your league.

Shay Whitcomb HOU, SS/2B/3B, 25.8 – If you’re looking for upside that isn’t in the form of a teenager who is several years away, Whitcomb could be your man. He’s a 25 year old who is knocking on the door of the bigs at Triple-A, and he’s putting together a monster season. He went 1 for 3 yesterday with a homer and a steal, and he’s now slashing .309/.390/.571 with 17 homers, 13 steals, and a 22.3%/11.3% K%/BB% in 68 games. His hit tool is still 100% a major concern even though it’s been improved this year, and it’s very likely that he is going to have to scratch and claw for playing time. Regardless, he’s a fun high risk, high reward prospect who seems pretty close to getting his shot.

Jackson Jobe DET, RHP, 21.11 – Jobe looked like his usual dominant self in a rehab outing (coming off a hamstring injury) at High-A, throwing 3 perfect innings with 4 K’s. The stuff was absolutely nasty and High-A hitters had no shot at it. Once he gets back in the upper minors and finds his groove, I really don’t think it makes much sense to keep having him waste bullets in the minors. I know he doesn’t have a ton of upper minors experience, but he’s already almost 22 years old and the stuff is quite obviously MLB ready. It doesn’t seem like Detroit is any rush to call him up, so I don’t think you can expect him to be up in short order, but he should get his shot at some point in the 2nd half.

Payton Martin LAD, RHP, 20.1 – Martin had his best outing of his young season after the Dodgers supposedly held him back in extended spring training to manage his workload, going 4 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER, and a 6/2 K/BB at High-A. The fastball was only sitting low to mid 90’s on the stadium gun, but you can definitely see the athletic delivery and lively stuff. He hasn’t shown the same level of stuff and production he showed in 2023 which got a lot of people excited with a 3.99 ERA and 33/23 K/BB in 29.1 IP, but he got a late start, and maybe this will be the jumping off point for him to go on a little heater here.

Spencer Horwitz TOR, 1B/2B/OF, 26.7 – Horowitz drilled 2 homers yesterday which were also his first two homers of the year in the majors. One was a 105.6 MPH shot and the other was a 102.9 MPH shot. He was red hot at Triple-A with a 158 wRC+, and he’s carried that right over into the majors with a 197 wRC+ in 13 games. He’s never been a big home run hitter, but he did have an 89.7 MPH EV at Triple-A, so it’s not like he’s only this light slap hitter. And the plate approach is excellent with a 10%/18% K%/BB% in the majors (15.8%/17% at Triple-A). He’s played mostly 2B, and he’s actually been an above average defensive player there despite playing 1B most of his career. I always found it hard to buy into a 1B prospect with mediocre game power, but he’s definitely showing there is more to his game than that. He’s worth an add, especially with Orelvis Martinez getting busted for PED’s.

Josh Smith TEX, 3B/SS, 26.10 – I’ve been trying my best to ignore Josh Smith this year, maybe his completely non descript name wasn’t doing him any favors either, but he simply refuses to be ignored. He homered yet again yesterday and is now slashing .351/.429/.622 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 14%/9% K%/BB% in his last 22 games. He also has an 89.1 MPH EV over that time. There is nothing to nitpick there, he’s been legit. His track record prior to this year was been terrible with well below the Gallo line batting averages the last 2 seasons, and he’s hasn’t hit the ball that hard on the season with a 87.1 MPH EV. Jung is also seemingly getting ready to return within the next week or two, so it’s hard to really recommend him as a full buy. But I recently picked him up in my 12 teamer to cover for Bo Bichette (and with how shit Bichette has been, maybe take over for him), so I’m planning on riding it as long as possible.

Jake Irvin WAS, RHP, 27.4 – Talking about guys who refuse to be ignored, Irvin had another spectacular start, going 6 IP with 3 hits, 1 ER, and a 10/1 K/BB vs. COL. He put up a 39% whiff% on the day on the back of his curve (44% whiff%), fastball (50% whiff%), and changeup (67% whiff%). He now has a 3.13 ERA with a 22%/5.4% K%/BB% in 92 IP. I’m still a little skeptical because he’s never really shown this level of control before, the stuff is good but it’s not really great, and despite this game, there isn’t a huge amount of swing and miss in his game with a below average 23.2% whiff%. I would ride him if you have him, but I wouldn’t be willing to pay up big to get him.

Pablo Lopez MIN, RHP, 28.3 – Nothing like a start vs. Oakland to get you back on track, and Lopez took advantage, going 8 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 14/1 K/BB. I refused to move off him because his underlying numbers looked completely fine with a 3.25 xERA and 27.5%/5.2% K%/BB%. He was bound to right the ship, and while it was only Oakland, he absolutely wrecked them. I think he’s in for a big 2nd half.

Mark Vientos NYM, 3B/1B, 24.6 – Put another one up on the board for my boy Vientos as he obliterated his 7th homer at 109.3 MPH, travelling a cool 451 feet. He was one of my top targets this off-season, and the bat is living up to the hype with a .353 xwOBA, 13.6% Barrel%, and 21.6%/8.0% K%/BB% in 33 games. The cherry on top is that he actually hasn’t been too bad at 3B either. He’s locking in that full time job.

Ethan Salas SDP, C, 18.0 – 0 for 3 with 2 K’s and is now hitting .207 with 1 homer and a 78 wRC+ in 58 games at High-A. Call me crazy, but maybe consider sending him down to Single-A, where he would still be one of the youngest players at the level.

Leodalis De Vries SDP, SS, 17.8 – 0 for 4 with 1 K and is now hitting .194 with 0 homers and a 79 wRC+ in 35 games at Single-A. Call me crazy, but maybe …. eh, never mind, why do I even bother

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 28, 2024 by Michael Halpern

The Tuesday Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/28/24)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays (Tuesday in this case) throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Tuesday Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/28/24):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-MAY TOP 414 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (5/24/24)
-MAY TOP 301 PROSPECTS RANKS (5/10/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAY MAILBAG! (coming this week)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 26.5 – Acuna tore his ACL and will be out for the season. He was a shell of his former self before going down with the injury. The team who owned Acuna in my 12 team league ran the league last year, dominating from start to finish in demoralizing fashion. He was the heavy favorite going into 2024, and now his team is at the bottom of the standings with little hope. I’ve gotten so many questions from dynasty owners who say they have Acuna, Julio, Carroll etc …, thought they were going to high step to a championship, and are now struggling and don’t know what to do. It reminds me of one of my tenets of Dynasty Baseball Strategy which I wrote up in my 10 (More) Dynasty Baseball Rules to Live By back in 2021: “Play with blinders on. When rebuilding, the teams on top can seem unbeatable and discourage you from ramping up. Don’t let fear and intimidation beat you before you even try. Focus on your own roster and trust that cracks in the armor will emerge from the top dogs.” Let this be a reminder to pound that point home in your head. Don’t let the team that looks unbeatable in the off-season discourage you from going for it. Anything can happen year to year. As for the Acuna owners, there is nothing you can do but set your sights on 2025. You probably weren’t off to a great start this year anyway. Panic selling low doesn’t make sense as he’s still just 26 years old, and I guess it’s better that it’s not the same knee. It seems plausible he can return from this injury just like he did the last one and still put up huge seasons. This is still a Top 20 dynasty asset for me, or at least close to it.

Maikel Garcia KCR, 3B, 24.3 – It was only a matter of time before the hits starting dropping for Garcia, and after going 2 for 5 yesterday, he’s now brought his BA up from .226 on May 1st to .270 on May 28th. He’s already surpassed his homer total from 2023 in less than half the games (5 homers), and he’s a perfect 13 for 13 on the basepaths. When I put a “if Ketel Marte liked to run” comp on him this off-season, this is exactly what I envisioned, and hopefully like Ketel, those homer totals will continue to rise he gets older. He just took his rightful place in the Top 100 overall dynasty assets, ranking 96th overall on the Updated May Top 415 Dynasty Baseball Rankings that dropped on the Patreon last week.

Brandon Sproat NYM, RHP, 23.8 – 7 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 5/2 K/BB at Double-A. Sproat is quickly becoming one of my favorite pitching prospect targets with huge stuff, Double-A production, and showing the seeds of improved control. He has a 1.89 ERA with a 28.2%/7..0% K%/BB% in 19 IP at Double-A. This coming off his destruction of High-A (1.07 ERA with a 32.4%/15.7% K%/BB% in 25.1 IP). He had some control issues in college, and as you can see from the High-A numbers, they aren’t completely behind him, but this is the type of profile that can blow up if it does take a meaningful step forward. He throws mid 90’s heat with two legit secondaries in his changeup and slider. I drafted him in the 3rd round of my 30 team FYPD Draft this off-season, and he looks on a beeline for Top 100 status.

Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 26.3 – We finally have signs of life from Bichette. He cracked a 105.7 MPH, 419 foot homer off Nick Nastrini (who I’ve soured on and recently rage dropped in my 18 team league), and he now has 3 homers, 3 steals, and a .358 BA in his last 17 games. The contact/hard hit ability is still there with a 14.4% K% and 89.8 MPH EV. It still doesn’t feel like he’ll ever truly hit that peak with a low launch (7.7 degree launch) and mediocre speed (27.4 ft/sec sprint), so I wouldn’t let this heater fully pull you back in, but he desperately needed this to show us he isn’t going full Andrew Benintendi on us with a slow fade into irrelevance.

Nick Nastrini CHW, RHP, 24.3 – As I mentioned, Nastrini absolutely blew me up in my 18 team points league in his outing before this one, and I went full rage drop on him. He wasn’t likely going to be a keeper for me with our keeper rules, but I haven’t done a good rage drop in awhile, and it felt warranted here. He wasn’t as bad in this outing, going 5 IP with 3 hits, 3 ER, and a 5/4 K/BB, but he wasn’t good either. He now has a 9.92 ERA with a 15.3%/20% K%/BB% in 16.1 IP, and he’s been bad at Triple-A too with a 5.83 ERA in 29.1 IP. The stuff isn’t all that notable with a 93.7 MPH fastball and the control is below average. He’s better than he’s shown, but I’m still mostly out on Nastrini.

Nick Lodolo CIN, LHP, 26.4 – Lodolo returned quickly from the IL with a groin strain, which is great to see because he’s had lower body injuries linger before, and he looked great, going 5.1 IP with 5 hits, 1 ER, and a 3/0 K/BB vs. STL. The fastball sat 94.8 MPH, the curve put up a 56% whiff%, and he induced weak contact with a 85 MPH EV against. He now has a 3.12 ERA with a 28.6%/5.6% K%/BB% in 40.1 IP. I’ve loved Lodolo for years now, and there was almost no doubt he would breakout if he stayed healthy. He ranked 139th overall on the Updated May Top 415 Dynasty Rankings (Patreon), and that was with him on the IL. Now that he’s back, he might be a Top 100 overall dynasty pitcher for me.

Robert Gasser MIL, LHP, 25.0 – Gasser had his most impressive outing yet in the majors, going 6 IP with 3 hits, 0 ER, and a 7/0 K/BB vs. MIL. The fastball sat 94.1 MPH, which is impressive for him, and he used a legit 5 pitch mix to notch a 28% whiff% and 84 MPH EV against. It was all encompassing dominance. He now has a 1.96 ERA with a 14.1%/1.1% K%/BB% in 23 IP, so seeing him capable of missing bats like he did yesterday was big to see. He checked in at #85 overall on the May Top 301 Prospects Rankings (Patreon), and even that might be looking a bit light right now.

Jazz Chisholm MIA, OF, 26.4 – I feel like I’m the only person who truly kept the faith on Jazz being a nearly elite dynasty asset this off-season, ranking him 34th overall on the Top 1,000, and he’s rewarding that faith after going 2 for 4 with a double and 107.7 MPH, 416 foot bomb off Michael King for his 8th homer in 54 games. He also stole his 10th bag in this game. The plate approach is taking a step forward with career bests in both K% and BB% (24.8%/8.8% K%/BB%), he’s crushing the ball as always with a 13.5% Barrel% and 90.2 MPH EV, and he’s faster than ever with a career best 4.08 Home Plate to 1B time. It could all go away tomorrow if the injury bug strikes him again, which is why many here hesitant to believe in him this off-season, but let’s not borrow trouble. Just enjoy the booty (as in pirate’s booty, not booty, booty) if you bought low and stole him this off-season.

Davis Schneider TOR, 2B/OF, 25.4 – Schneider obviously was never going to be as good as his insane 2023 MLB debut, but he’s locking in that he’s no fluke after drilling his 6th homer in 46 games. He now has a 131 wRC+ with the underlying numbers to back it up. He has a 15.6% Barrel%, 90.7 MPH EV, 22.3 degree launch, and a 26.4%/12.9% K%/BB%. The 28.7% whiff% isn’t even close to the danger zone, and he runs a bit too with 3 steals. That is a very exciting profile for OBP leagues especially. He’s legit.

Kyle Stowers BAL, OF, 26.5 – Baltimore begrudgingly put Grandpa Stowers into the lineup, and lo and behold, he raked, going 3 for 4 with a 104.3 MPH double, 103.8 MPH single, and 98.9 MPH double. He drove in 4 runs. He now has a fun 38.5% Barrel% in 13 batted balls to go along with a .916 OPS and 23.5% K% in 17 PA. The 37.8% whiff% is still high and I don’t trust Baltimore at all to really give him a real shot if history is any indication, but I stand by my opinion that he can be a legit MLB slugger if given the chance. He slugged 11 homers with a 91.2 MPH EV in 36 games at Triple-A. At the least, he’s worth keeping an eye on.

Dalton Rushing LAD, C/1B, 23.3 – I feel like people are already getting prospect fatigue with Rushing just anticipating his impossible path to playing time. It’s like Precog prospect fatigue. But while we all bemoan his lack of path, he just keeps on raking at Double-A, jacking out his 7th homer in 35 games with a grand salami. He now has a 142 wRC+ with a 18.5%/13% K%/BB%. He’s DH’d almost as much as he’s caught, so worrying about playing time is legit, but the bat also looks legit. I don’t know where or when or what team he will play for, but I’m still betting on the bat and hoping the rest works itself out.

Walker Martin SFG, SS, 20.3 – The highly touted Martin finally made his pro debut on May 20th, and while it’s been a strikeout fest in rookie ball with a 62.5% K% in 5 games, he got comfortable yesterday with 2 bombs. The dude most certainly looks the part already at 6’2” and with a neck that is bigger than his head. Give him some time to shake the rust off and get comfortable in pro ball before making any determinations, because there is big talent in here befitting of the $3 million singing bonus SF handed him last year.

Blake Mitchell KCR, C, 19.4 – KC taking Mitchell 8th overall was a bit of a surprise, but he continues to prove he was worth it, going the opposite way for his 6th homer in 39 games. He now has a 144 wRC+ with 10 homers and a 32.6%/17.1% K%/BB% at Single-A, and he’s also finally showing some contact improvement of late with a 12.9% K% in his last 7 games. His value continues to rise.

Yoeilin Cespedes BOS, SS, 18.9 – The DSL breakout is completely transferring stateside for Cespedes after he jacked out his 2nd homer in 12 games yesterday. He now has a 142 wRC+, which almost matches his 145 wRC+ from last year. I compared his swing to a miniature version of Vlad Guerrero Sr. in the 2024 Top 1,000 Rankings, so while he’s not a huge guy, the huge swing most certainly packs a punch. He’s not a threat on the bases with 0 steals, it will be important to watch the hit tool and plate approach at higher levels (19.6%/9.8% K%/BB%), and his size may cap the raw power a bit, so I would still have some caution when going after him, but he’s a no doubt riser right now.

Eduardo Quintero LAD, OF, 18.9 – Speaking of DSL breakouts, Quintero had another big day stateside, going 3 for 5 with 2 walks. He’s fully backing up the huge DSL numbers, slashing .310/437/.483 with 3 homers, 1 steal, and a 22.5%/15.5% K%/BB% in 17 games. He’s stolen only 1 bag and he’s starting to look pretty thick, but he’s still an excellent athlete and the power is coming in nicely. His hype is already steadily rising, and he’s a candidate to explode when he gets into full season ball.

Joendry Vargas LAD, SS, 18.7 – The Dodgers pipeline never ends as Vargas had his first huge day stateside, going 4 for 6 with 2 doubles and a triple. He’s yet to hit a homer in 10 games, but everything else looks good with a 118 wRC+, 4 steals, and a 17%/8.5% K%/BB%. If the power starts to come, and it should for the projectable 6’4” Vargas, the hype will hit hard and fast.

Hurston Waldrep ATL, RHP, 22.3 – 5 IP, 6 hits, 2 ER, 7/2 K/BB at Double-A. Waldrep got off to a rocky start to the season with 10 earned in his first 2 outings, but he’s yet to give up more that 2 ER or go less than 5 IP in any of his 7 outings since then. He now has a 2.92 ERA with a 22.4%/7.9% K%/BB% in 49.1 IP. Seeing the solid control is big, and while the strikeout rate isn’t as high as we would like it, the nasty stuff is still there, and we know there is more in the tank. This is his first full year of pro ball and he’s performing well in the upper minors. His value at least holds steady from the rightful hype he got this off-season.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 13, 2024May 14, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/13/24)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-APRIL TOP 427 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (4/19/24)
-MAY TOP 301 PROSPECTS RANKS (5/10/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: APRIL MAILBAG! (4/24/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (May Update coming soon)
-MAY DYNASTY TARGETS COMING SOON
-SPREADSHEETS

Chase Jaworksy HOU, SS, 19.9 – Jaws has been one of my low key prospect sleepers since he was drafted 164th overall by Houston, and he stole the show on Mother’s Day, blasting two dingers. Doesn’t he know his mom is supposed to be the star on Mother’s Day? So selfish. He now has 3 homers, 13 steals, a 20%/14.5% K%/BB% and 136 wRC+ in 26 games at Single-A. He’s a legit great athlete with plus speed, plenty of power potential at 6’1”, 170, and an excellent plate approach. He’s extremely exciting and is silly underrated. He just checked in at #279 on the May Top 301 Prospects Rankings update that dropped on the Patreon last week, and a day like yesterday will have him continuing to rise. It’s time to grab him if he’s still out there in your league.

Brady House WAS, 3B, 20.11 – House has been so quietly destroying Double-A as a 20 year old, and that continued on the Day of Mothers, obliterating his 7th bomb in 30 games. He now has a 146 wRC+ with a 21.7%/11.6% K%/BB%. He’s finally living fully up to the hype from his draft year, slotting in at #22 on those Updated Prospect Rankings. Like a good mother, he’s turning this House into a Home, because he’s becoming that core dynasty piece that you settle down in and don’t flip. The kids are starting to grow up in Washington (Wood, House, Gore, Abrams, Garcia etc). The future is bright.

MacKenzie Gore WAS, LHP, 25.2 – Speaking of the kids blossoming in Washington, Gore threw another gem yesterday, going 6 IP with 6 hits, 2 ER, and a 9/3 vs. BOS. He now has a 3.38 ERA with a 29%/7.4% K%/BB% in 40 IP. The control is improved, the velocity is up, he’s inducing more weak contact, and he’s missing more bats. It’s a total across the board leveling up. Gore was my “pitching development isn’t linear” target this off-season, and this sure looks like the breakout we have been waiting for. He ranked 127th overall on the Updated Top Top 427 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon).

Justin Wrobleski LAD, LHP, 23.8 – Let’s stick with flame throwing lefties and talk about Wrobleski. It’s probably too late to jump on the Gore bandwagon, but there is still plenty of time to jump on the underrated Wrobleski train. He went 5 IP with 5 hits, 3 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB at Double-A, which has been the story of his season with a 4.86 ERA and 25.4%/2.9% K%/BB% in 33.1 IP. But be happy that ERA is elevated, because it just keeps his buy window wide open with a 3.13 xFIP, legitimately nasty stuff from the left side, much improved control, and a great organization. This is the type of pitcher that should be approaching elite pitching prospect status, and he really doesn’t have much hype at all. He should be owned in all league sizes.

Matt Wilkenson CLE, LHP, 21.5 – From lefty flamethrowers to lefty Tugboats, Wilkenson dominated again, going 5 IP with 5 hits, 1 ER, and a 8/0 K/BB at Single-A. He’s been insanely good on the season with a 1.02 ERA and 48.5%/6.9% K%/BB%, but he has to prove it against more advanced competition before really going all in on him, as the fastball only sits upper 80’s/low 90’s. I can’t help but be reminded so much of David Wells when watching him pitch, and there is no doubt he’s so easy to root for, but it still feels like more of a back end profile on the major league level. I like him, but I am going to continue to have some caution until I see him do this against more advanced hitters.

Jonny DeLuca TBR, OF, 25.9 – DeLuca finally made his Tampa debut in May after fracturing his hand in spring, and he’s showing why he was a named target for me this off-season. He’s off to a scorching start after going 1 for 3 with a double and walk yesterday, and now has a .930 OPS in 33 PA. The plate approach has been elite with a 9.1%/15.2% K%/BB%, he’s lifting the ball more with a 16.9 degree launch, and the speed is almost double plus with a 28.9 ft/sec spring and 2 steals. The 85.7 MPH EV is low, but if any team knows how to get the most out of low EV players, it’s the Rays (see Isaac Paredes). DeLuca is becoming the next Paredes, except with more speed. He’s now becoming a major target for me. Get him everywhere you can.

Xavier Isaac TBR, 1B, 20.4 – Isaac has officially shook off his bit of a rocky start with an absolute missile yesterday for his 6th homer in 28 games at High-A. And most importantly, the uncharacteristically poor hit tool has been much better of late with a .315 BA and 18.8%/15.6% K%/BB% in his last 16 games. He now has a 142 wRC+ at the level. He’s on a beeline for elite prospect status if he isn’t there already, and once he gets to the upper minors, it’s very possible he can rise to #1 overall fantasy prospect status in the near future.

Orelvis Martinez TOR, 2B/3B/SS, 22.5 – With Toronto slowly falling out of the race at 18-22, and Addison Barger getting off to slow start, it’s only a matter of time before they start calling up their big guns, and Orelvis is the biggest gun they got right now. He smoked his 10th homer yesterday with an athletic and powerful righty swing that looks just about ready for the majors. He now has a 136 wRC+ with a 20.8%/9.4% K%/BB% in 35 games at Triple-A. Toronto has scored the 3rd least amount of runs in the game, and they desperately need a shot in the arm. Orelvis could be that shot. He’s a great stash.

Damiano Palmegiani TOR, 3B/1B, 24.3 – If Orelvis doesn’t give them that shot, Damiano will, as his bat is so sincere after cracking his 7th homer in 37 games at Triple-A. He hasn’t been destroying the level with a 97 wRC+, but his high K, high BB slugging profile is fully intact with a 91.4 MPH EV and 29.6%/12.5% K%/BB%. Considering their ages, it’s possible Toronto goes to Damiano first, but Orelvis has the much better glove and is the much better prospect in general. Regardless, Damiano is a very good prospect in his own right and is worth a stash in medium to deeper leagues.

Tyler Locklear SEA, 1B, 23.4 – While we’re on the topic of hitting stashes, Locklear should firmly be on your radar. France continues to slump with another 0-fer day, and Locklear’s footsteps keep getting louder and louder. He’s been destroying Double-A, slashing .295/.419/.500 with 4 homers, 3 steals, and a 22.6%/14.6% K%/BB% in 30 games. He’s done nothing but rip up pro ball at every stop, and while he’s not at Triple-A yet, I don’t think Seattle will make him spend much time there, if any, when they feel they are ready to make the switch. France isn’t a particularly good defensive player and he isn’t the type of bat you want at 1B. Locklear is that type of bat, and he’s coming for that 1B job of the present and the future.

Zac Veen COL, OF, 22.4 – I did all my mea culpas for ranking Veen so highly last year, but I knew I wasn’t going crazy thinking that this guy should be really good, and with a healthy hand, he’s back with a vengeance in 2024. He’s been straight unconscious, going 2 for 5 with a steal yesterday, and is now slashing .341/.434/.593 with 5 homers, 9 steals, and a 23.6%/12.3% K%/BB% in 26 games at Double-A. That’s good for a 191 wRC+. This is everything I thought he was capable of in 2023, but the hand injury clearly prevented the breakout. Today, we spell redemption, H-A-L-P … let’s not talk about Parker Meadows which now swaps with Veen as my worst call 😉

Christopher Morel CHC, OF, 24.11 – Talking about former favorites of mine, Morel is starting to lock in a true leveling up, going 2 for 4 with a 397 foot homer off Bailey Falter for his 9th in 40 games. Most importantly, he didn’t strike out once, and his 21.8%/10.9% K%/BB% is looking oh so sweet combined with his hard hit ability (91.3 MPH EV), lift (14 degree launch), and athleticism (4 steals). The reasonable 29.8% whiff% mostly backs up the strikeout rate gains. His .384 xwOBA is in the top 8% of the league, and Chicago looks committed to getting his bat in the lineup despite continued poor defense. The surface stats haven’t completely caught up with the underlying numbers quite yet, so there could still be a buy window here if you are looking to buy offense that won’t cost you an arm and a leg.

Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 25.6 – In my last Monday Morning Rundown, I implored you to not sell low on Cruz, and he’s exploded since then, crushing a 112.7 MPH bomb off Kyle Hendricks yesterday. He’s now slashing .344/385/.623 with 4 homers and a 14/4 K/BB in 18 games since that Rundown. The dude is a beast with a 94.2 MPH EV and a declining K rate (21.5% over those last 18 games). Any buy low window has been shut.

Jazz Chisholm MIA, OF, 26.2 – I called Jazz a buy low in that same Rundown, and he’s also hit very well since then, going 2 for 3 with a double, triple, and 0/1 K/BB yesterday. He now has 3 homers, 4 steals, a 21% K% and .836 OPS in 19 games since that writeup. The dude is a gimme for 20/20, and 30/30 is so easily within reach too if he can just stay healthy. So far, he’s healthy. Corbin Carroll and Jordan Walker were my two other buy low calls from that Rundown, and while they haven’t broken out yet, I still implore you to hold on to both, especially Carroll. My faith is Walker is maybe cracking a bit more after he got sent down, but long term, I still think he ends up really really good.

Jesus Baez NYM, SS, 19.1 – Baez is quickly becoming one of the most exciting Single-A breakouts, going 2 for 6 with a homer, and now has 4 homers, 5 steals, a 10.1% K%, and 131 wRC+ in 31 games. He hits the ball hard with a vicious righty swing and the K rate is in the elite range. He’s not a perfect prospect as he’s not a burner and the 5.8% BB% is low, but the hit/power combo is looking legit right now.

Alek Manoah TOR, RHP, 26.3 – We finally have a pulse. Manoah went 7 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB vs. MIN. The fastball sat 93.8 MPH and all 4 of his pitches missed bats for a 33% whiff% overall. You obviously still can’t fully trust him, but just seeing him capable of putting together a good start is great to see after his complete implosion and poor 1st outing. Tread carefully here, but this is as close to the old Manoah we’ve seen since it all went wrong.

Ethan Salas SDP, C, 17.10/Leodalis De Vries SDP, SS, 17.6 – Let’s check in on San Diego’s experiment of being stupid aggressive with their assignments. Salas has a 67 wRC+ with 0 homers in 28 games at High-A. De Vries has a 65 wRC+ with a 30.3% K% in 7 games at Single-A and hasn’t played since May 1st. I hated the old way of being so conservative to the point of stunting prospects development and robbing baseball fans of seeing the best young players in the game at the highest levels, but San Diego has taken it to cartoonish levels, and it’s starting to come back to bite them.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)