Updated Top 60 2026 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon)

Pro debuts always shake up the First Year Player Draft Rankings, and while of course there is risk to overreacting to a small sample at the end of a long season, I’ve found you end up getting a lot more right than you do wrong by reacting to pro debuts, both in a positive and negative direction. It’s where a guy like Charlie Condon goes from 1st overall, to the back of the Top 10. Where Jacob Berry gets tanked down rankings. Where Alex Freeland and Jacob Reimer become deep sleepers. Where you find out just how bad the hit tool is for high risk, high reward prospects, a la Elijah Green’s 40.4% K% in 12 games in rookie ball in 2022. Where you find out a hit tool first high school bat like Carter Johnson doesn’t actually have a good hit tool. You probably forgot he even existed. He followed up his 33.1% K% and .221 BA in 28 games at Single-A in 2024 with a 28.8% K% and .177 BA in 106 games in 2025. He was 18 year old in 2024 and thrown into the fire at Single-A, but it was still a very clear signal to avoid. You get the point. Pro debuts reveal a lot. Here is the link to my original Top 60 2026 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon) with full scouting reports, ETA’s, and Prime Projections. And of course my full Top 100+ 2026 First Year Player Draft Rankings gets released over the off-season with full analysis and Prime Projections. Until then, here is the Updated Top 60 2026 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (Top 10 free here on the Brick Wall):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
–AUGUST 2025 TOP 444 DYNASTY RANKS (End of Season Ranks coming soon)
–END OF SEASON 2025 TOP 325 PROSPECTS RANKS
-TOP 60 2026 FYPD RANKS w/ Analysis & Prime Projections for every player
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-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
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–OFF-SEASON CONTENT: Dynasty Team Reports (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy of the Day), Deep Positional Rankings, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Top 1,000+ Dynasty Rankings, Top 500+ Prospects Rankings, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks + much more

1) Eli Willits – WSH, SS, 17.8 – It’s pretty wild to say that even the #1 overall pick is wide open in First Year Player Drafts. There are probably 11 guys that could get taken here and it would be completely reasonable. Maybe even more than that. I’ve never seen a First Year Player Draft that was more “get your guy” than this one. It also means that team needs and win timeline would legitimately come into play for me with this pick. If you already have a very strong young offensive core, and/or if your minor league system is already overstuffed with great hitting prospects who are on the verge of debuting, but you’ve neglected pitching in the rebuild (which is mostly how I build), then I would pivot to Doyle or Anderson with this pick. I hate taking pitchers first, but with no true top elite bats, it’s completely reasonable to take a pitcher first, even in a vacuum, so if your team construction also dictates you should go pitcher, 100% go for it. But if you have the 1st pick because your team was terrible, you are full tear down, and you desperately need to build up a young offensive core, I wouldn’t want to take a pitcher. I’m not holding a pitcher for 3+ years or whatever while I have no shot of competing. And like I said, building that offensive core is of the utmost importance. In that case, Willits’ debut was good enough to have real life mirror fantasy and take him #1 overall. He was only 17 years old and showed off a good feel to hit, aggressive base running, and no lift and pull issues. If he gains power as he ages, and I don’t see why he wouldn’t, this is an impact all category fantasy contributor.

2) Liam Doyle – STL, LHP, 21.3 – Doyle is my top arm, but it’s honestly a coin flip with Anderson. I’m giving the lean to the double plus, upper 90’s fastball. I also think the changeup is underrated. And while Seattle is the best place to pitch, St. Louis is a good pitcher’s park too

3) Kade Anderson – SEA, LHP, 21.2 – I fear that Anderson is more mid rotation startery than optimal for a super high FYPD pick in fantasy, but maybe that is just velocity discrimination getting in the way. He has more pitchability than Doyle, and while the heater sits more 93 MPH, it is a bat missing pitch with carry. The curve, slider and change and are all good pitches. And he’ll pitch in Seattle. Zero issue having him as your top arm.

4) Ethan Conrad – CHC, OF, 21.2 – If I had balls I would put Conrad #1 overall. Dude is 6’3”, 220, he has that upright, loose, and athletic swing that I love, he’s a great athlete with speed, he has power, and he has production. He destroyed the MAAC his Sophomore year, and then did the same in the Cape, and then did the same in the Perfect Game Collegiate League and then did the same to the ACC before hurting his shoulder. I said the same thing about Konnor Griffin last year. If you have more guts than I do, I can see taking him 1st overall. And maybe by this off-season, I will grow a pair and do it. But for now, I’m comfortable being already super high on him at #4 overall. I see him going like mid teens in recent drafts anyway

5) JoJo Parker – TOR, SS, 19.1 – Yet to debut. He’s the Walker Jenkins of this draft class. Jenkins was the Kyle Tucker of his draft class. It’s literally the Russian Nesting Dolls of FYPD prospects with each of them one inch shorter than the last one. Perfect fits. Hit, power, size, and sneaky athleticism. I get it if he’s your top dog

6) Steele Hall – CIN, SS, 18.2 – Hall had some hit tool questions surrounding his ability to hit the breaking ball, so smart of Cincinnati not to debut him. If I were an MLB organization, I also wouldn’t debut a high schooler with hit tool issues right after he gets drafted. What do you think is going to happen? He’s an 18 year old kid. Why let that get in his head over the off-season? Let him come into 2026 fresh and fully prepared. So we know the risk, but the upside is no joke with an explosive swing that I love, present power even though he’s only 5’11”, and game breaking base running. I’ll take the hit tool mystery box over the hit tool that is no longer a mystery …

7) Ethan Holliday – COL, SS, 18.7 – Colorado of course had zero tact, zero strategy, zero anything, they just threw Holliday and his known risky hit tool right into the fire to get burned. He has a 39.3% K% in 18 games and that doesn’t even include his Golden Sombrero from his last game. I’m not going full panic, but it couldn’t be more clear there is very, very, very real hit tool risk in here. And we have to trust Colorado to develop that hit tool. This is as high as I’m comfortable going on him

8) Seth Hernandez – PIT, RHP, 19.2 – Yet to debut. High school righties are a nightmare class of prospect. Just look at Noble Meyer and Dylan Lesko. Also look at Andrew Painter and Forrest Whitley. Even when it starts out well, it can turn. It is just a long, hard road. Having said that, Hunter Greene exists too. The upside is high, but so is the risk.

9) Aiva Arquette – MIA, SS, 21.11 – I would have liked nothing more than for Arquette to rip up the lower minors and establish himself as not only the top college bat, but also the #1 pick in FYPD’s, but it didn’t happen. He slashed .242/.350/.323 with 1 homer, a 47.2% GB%, and a 23.1/14.5 K%/BB% in 27 games at High-A. It’s good for a 102 wRC+. The silver lining is that he’s running with 7 steals. Part of the allure of Arquette is that there still seems to be upside in here at 6’5”, 220 with smooth athleticism and big raw power, so I’m not going to let the mediocre debut completely turn me off. But I can’t be the only one underwhelmed by this

10) Dax Kilby – NYY, SS, 18.10 – You already know I’m all in on Kilby. He is what the pro debut breakouts are all about, and he’s the #1 pro debut breakout in 2025. He slashed .353/.457/.441 with 0 homers, 16 steals, and a 13.6/16.0 K%/BB% in 18 games at Single-A. He already hits the ball extremely hard with a 91.9 MPH EV and 45.6% Hard Hit%, he has speed, and he’s 6’2”, 190 pounds. The only thing he doesn’t have is lift and pull with a 1 degree launch and 8.8% Air Pull%. I’m not even sure 10 is high enough. Is Eli Willits profile all that different? And it seems Kilby is the bigger, more fully formed version of it. I said there were 11 guys who I can reasonably see going #1 overall, and I meant it.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

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