Thursday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (3/12/26)

These usually come out on Monday’s on the Brick Wall (Patreon the rest of the week), but there are exceptions some weeks, and this is one of those weeks. I do these Rundowns all Spring and all season, plus sooooooooo much more. Here is the Thursday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (3/12/26):

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Cade Cavalli – WAS, RHP, 27.7 – I’ve poisoned myself. I reluctantly wrote up my Top 2026 Dynasty Baseball Fades on the Patreon yesterday, because I hate writing Fade articles (it’s not that I don’t have fades every year, it’s just that I don’t write the article), but once you get a taste of the hate, it can take over and spread through you. I can’t stop it now even if I tried. I opened Pandora’s box, and now the hate is running through me, so let me open this Rundown with another guy I’m still not going after even with a great spring. Cavalli had another great outing, going 3 IP with 0 hits, 0 ER, and a 2/1 K/BB vs about a 50/50 Cardinals lineup. The stuff is really good, no doubt about it, with a 97 MPH fastball, but that fastball went 0 for 5 on whiffs. His 3 secondaries (sweeper, curve, change), combined for 1 for 7 whiffs. He has a 28.1% K% this spring in 9 IP, but it comes with a lackluster whiff%. The whiff% was only a decent 26.7% before this outing, and with a 12% whiff% in this one, it’s going to be even more pedestrian. You know I love getting excited for baseball being back and getting amped with these spring rundowns, but please don’t forget that this is just spring. And it’s just 9 IP for Cavalli in 3 short outings against weak competition. You can’t take that much away from it, and his 1.48 WHIP in the majors last year and 1.45 WHIP in the minors just seems pretty damn far away from being a true breakout, impact fantasy starter. I can’t deny the ingredients are certainly in here He’s a big dude (6’4”, 223), he throws hard (97.1 MPH 4-seamer), the fastball misses bats (25.6% whiff%), he has a ground ball inducing sinker, he has two bat missing secondaries in his curve (39.8% whiff%) and changeup (41.8% whiff%) and he has a plus whiff% overall (27.9% whiff%). That is a lot to like, but I just cooked my grandma’s famous chicken recipe last night with all of the best ingredients, and it still tasted like shit. It’s not only about ingredients, it’s about results, and Cavalli’s results in games that matter aren’t good enough for me to call him a Target this year.

Dustin May – STL, RHP, 28.7 – The hate is running through me now! I can’t stop it! Noooooooo …. Dustin May is another guy I’m still not targeting despite showing signs this spring. He went 3.2 IP with 2 hits, 1 ER, and a 3/2 K/BB vs. a like 40% Nationals lineup. The main signs he’s showing is the velocity is back up to 97.4 MPH in this one, and that 4-seamer did miss bats with a 38% whiff%, as did the sweeper (50% whiff%), but he still had a 23% whiff% overall on the day. It’s not only about big velocity for May, he’s had big velocity like that for most of his career, but he’s yet to turn that into big K rates or a great K/BB, and nothing he’s done this spring is convincing me that big breakout is coming (16.0/12.0 K%/BB% in 6.2 IP). K/BB and whiffs are king for me even during the regular season, so a good ERA in spring really doesn’t do much for me at all. Just like Cavalli, I want to see tons of whiffs, and while Cavalli at least has a good K/BB, May doesn’t even have that. I love stuff just as much as the next guy, but I don’t just blindly chase it. There has to be some foundation of production, and with Cavalli and May, I just don’t see enough of that foundation to go after them. They are cheap and of course I completely see the appeal, but I can only be 100% honest with what my plans are this draft season, and these guys aren’t going to be my main dart throws, especially with their values on the rise.

Alek Manoah – LAA, RHP, 28.3 – 4 IP, 8 hits, 4 ER, 4/2 K/BB … Okay, do I even have to let you know I’m not in on Manoah. I don’t even feel like this one is letting the hate run through me. This one is just common sense.

Tatsuya Imai – HOU, RHP, 27.11 – I need to cleanse my soul with some love! And Imai’s performance yesterday is the antidote, because he looked like straight fire. He went 3 perfect innings with 4 K against a Quad-A-ish Marlins lineup. But it was the stuff that was even more exciting with the fastball averaging 96.7 MPH! I’m not going to say he’s going to sit there every start, but he clearly he has that kind of juice in him. The reverse slider is clearly having no issues working stateside with a 38% whiff%, and he didn’t even have to go to the splitter that much in this one (1 for 1 whiffs). I would say that arsenal is going to transfer just fine to the majors, and it’s why he’s my #1 pick in First Year Player Drafts, along with already being a Top 150 Dynasty Asset in my 2026 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). It’s only spring, but if you were getting cold feet about valuing him so highly sight unseen, well, consider him sight seen now. And that site is beautiful.

Drew Anderson – DET, RHP, 32.0 – Let’s keep the love flowing, because nobody is getting me more excited this Spring than the Expats, er, I guess maybe more accurately the Repats? The Ex-Expats? The Traitors? hah, nah, just messing around, but also a sneakily good Reality Competition Show. I was already convinced that all of them were majorly underrated and were going to outperform their contracts, and now seeing it this spring, I’m even more convinced. Anderson spun another gem yesterday, going 2.2 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 4/1 K/BB. The fastball sat 95.9 MPH and put up a 33% whiff%. The hellacious change induced weak contact (79.3 MPH EV) and missed bats (30% whiff%). And while the breakers aren’t as good, the curve showed up with 1 for 3 whiffs. He now has a 0.00 ERA with a 35.9/5.1 K%/BB% in 11 IP. Like I wrote above, spring stats don’t matter that much, but for guys coming over and playing with new balls, it matters more than for guys like Cavalli and May. Showing the stuff and results will transfer matters, and Anderson is coming off pure destruction of Korea with a 2.25 ERA and 35.3/7.3 K%/BB% in 171.2 IP. He doesn’t have a rotation spot right now, which is the main thing holding me back from going full Target status, but it sure seems like when he does get a spot, he’s going to produce. I was already in, and after this spring, I’m even more in.

Anthony Kay – CHW, LHP, 31.0 – The Expat love isn’t done with Kay continuing to look strong this spring as well, going 4 IP with 3 hits, 1 ER, and a 4/0 K/BB vs. a like 40% Angels lineup. He has 2 fastballs that sit 95+ in his 4-seamer and sinker. The changeup is killing it stateside with 4 for 10 whiffs, and the slider and sweeper combined for a respectable 2 for 6 on whiffs. All indications continue to show the strikeout rate from Japan is coming up, although a 20.4/12.2 K%/BB% in 11.2 IP this spring isn’t jumping off the screen, so maybe it’s not coming up majorly. But regardless, he’s proving to me that the stuff and profile is transferring. Chicago is going to kill his win chances, and I don’t like him as much as Anderson, but he’s definitely a nice little late round flier pick for me. And his rotation spot is locked in.

Max Meyer – MIA, RHP, 27.1 – Like Cavalli and May, Meyer wasn’t an off-season target for me, but unlike them, I actually am getting drawn in by his spring. Saying he looks completely healthy is an understatement, going 3 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB vs. a like 40% Astros lineup. The slider has been devastating with a 40% whiff%. The fastball sat 94.8 MPH and put up a 33% whiff%. And even the always maligned changeup got in on the action with 2 for 4 whiffs. He now has a 0.00 ERA with a 50.0%/4.2% K%/BB% in 7 IP. You want to impress me with spring stats, then you put up a 50/4 K/BB hah. It’s still only spring, but the performance is good enough for him to be a major spring riser for me.

Max Muncy – OAK, 2B/3B, 23.7 – Muncy was one of my Top 3B Targets in my Position by Position Target Series (Patreon), and dude has been an absolute machine this spring. He went bonkos yesterday, going 3 for 3 with a 111.5 MPH homer off Ryne Nelson. He’s been crushing the ball all spring with a 225 wRC+ in 35 PA, and the 17.1/20.0 K%/BB% looks good too. Caveat as always, only spring, but he’s a young player who is showing signs of taking the steps forward I thought he was going to take. This guy put up a 108.8 90th% EV at Triple-A last year which is top of the scale. The power potential is in here is no joke, and he’s going to be in a minor league ballpark. The plate skills should take a step forward. He’s a really exciting young player who just never gets any respect, but that respect is coming.

Cole Young – SEA, 2B, 22.8 – Speaking of power coming, I was worried about the 5’10” Young’s power in Seattle, and while I’m still worried about it, he’s doing the best he can to ease those concerns. He jacked out a 108.7 MPH homer for his 4th of the spring, and he also added a 109.2 MPH GIDP, and a 105.8 MPH single. He’s crushing the ball this spring with more than enough juice to hit them out in Seattle too if he can sustain the increase. The 31.1% Hard Hit% in 2025 is super low though, so I’m still a bit skeptical until I actually see it in the regular season, but it’s not hard to believe the still 22 year old Young is going to see his power on the rise. And if he can do it, the plate skills and lift/pull were there. Young is another player whose spring has me buying in more, and spring does matter for him, because he’s competing for a job.

Matt McLain – CIN, 2B, 26.8 – I wasn’t too keen on buying low on McLain this off-season, but how can his nuclear spring not draw me back in. He’s going looney tunes on the league with 5 homers and a 6.1/15.2 K%/BB% in 33 PA. He went 3 for 3 yesterday with a 104.5 MPH dinger off Robert Gasser, a 107.2 MPH single and a 98.4 MPH single. He put on 12 pounds this off-season, and it’s showing with his Hard Hit rates way up. I loved him after his great rookie year, and while I cooled after the injury and down 2025, it sure looks like the bounce back is coming. The fantasy friendly upside is in here. I’m back in.

Kaelen Culpepper – MIN, SS, 23.3 – We want to see more hard hit, and Culpepper just gave us some more hard hit with a 109.1 MPH single and 104.2 MPH single. He’s hitting .316 this spring in 21 PA. He might not end up a league winner, but I think this dude is going to be a good real life player and a good fantasy player. And he’s a personal favorite after being a low key target of mine in his FYPD year, which already paid off. He ranked 68th overall on my 2026 Top 500 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings (Patreon).

Blake Mitchell – KCR, C, 21.8 – Mitchell suffered a fractured hamate in his wrist in February 2025 which tanked his 2025 season, so any signs his huge power returning is a good sign, and I think vaporizing a 114.4 MPH homer yesterday is a good sign. The power might be returning in a huge way in 2026, and also, with all of the hamate injuries that went down this spring, maybe use him as a reminder for a worst case scenario. Sometimes the power comes back quickly, and sometimes it doesn’t.

Heriberto Hernandez – MIA, OF, 26.4 – How about another one for my boy Heriberto with a 100.2 MPH homer off Spencer Arrighetti. That gives him 3 homers in 25 PA, and even better, it sure looks like he’s fittin to run more this year with 3 steals. The hit tool can still tank him and he’s got competition for a job, but I’m just smelling something here. I already gave you the heads up on the Brick Wall in an earlier Rundown, and I’m still digging him as a late flier.

Spencer Strider – ATL, RHP, 27.5 – 4 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 5/1 K/BB vs a mediocre Rays lineup. The velocity isn’t back at 94.8 MPH and neither are the whiffs on that pitch with a 7% whiff%. The secondaries were whiff machines, leading to a 30% whiff% overall, but that was basically the formula in 2025, and that formula didn’t work. We know Strider is still building up and taking it slow, so don’t count him out, but the things we wanted to see this spring, we haven’t seen yet. Even without a true elite fastball, I believe in him enough to figure out how to work around that and still be a high K, impact fantasy starter, but it doesn’t look like 2022-23 Strider is walking through that door.

Ian Seymour – TBR, LHP, 27.4 – It made sense for Tampa to add pitching depth and use the limited money they have in the best way possible, but damn is it annoying that it delays the rise of some of their more fun, younger pitchers. And Seymour just showed that fun yesterday, going 2.1 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 4/0 K/BB. The fastball ain’t fast at 92 MPH, but it can miss bats (1 for 2 in this one). The changeup dominated with 6 of 8 whiffs, and the cutter was good too (2 for 3 whiffs). I was in on Seymour last year with his breakout and I’m still on him now, he just needs to get back into the rotation.

Tyler Bremner – LAA, RHP, 21.11 – We got our first look at Bremner in pro ball, and not bad at all, going 1 IP with 0 hits, 0 ER, and a 1/2 K/BB. The not bad at all part was the 98 MPH fastball that went 1 for 2 on whiffs. The famed changeup induced weak contact with a 67.8 MPH EV against. It’s just fun to see him out there for the first time and while being on the Angels stinks, he’s going to be a super fun one to follow all season. He ranked 16th overall on my 2026 Top 164 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon).

Carlos Lagrange – NYY, RHP, 22.10 – 4 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER, 3/1 K/BB vs. a minor league Blue Jays lineup, but no matter the lineup, it’s always great to see him show some level of control, and as us prospect hounds already know, the stuff is off the charts. The fastball averaged 101.5 MPH yesterday! I’m speechless. And that isn’t even over 1 IP. That is over 4 innings. The pitch went 5 for 10 on whiffs. The change, slider, and sweeper missed bats too, leading to a 47% whiff%. I’ve been leaning him ending up an elite closer due to his control issues, but his upside is so insane, I don’t see why the Yanks wouldn’t want to give him every opportunity to start. Even if he breaks into the majors in a pen role, that door to a starter’s role should stay wide open. He’s taken the entire baseball world by storm this spring, and even with knowing how great his stuff is for years now, he’s blowing me away too. What a talent.

Matt Svanson – STL, Closer Committee, 27.2 – If you think spring doesn’t mean much for starters, it means even less for relievers, but still, there goes Matt Svanson again putting up a pristine K/BB. He went 1 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 1/0 K/BB. He now has a 1.80 ERA with a 23.8/0.0 K%/BB% in 5 IP. Riley O’Brien? He has a 0/5 K/BB in 1.2 IP. JoJo Romero? He has a 3/2 K/BB in 4 IP. Sure it’s only spring, but Svanson’s K/BB blew those guys out of the water last year too. I know performance and K/BB isn’t everything when it comes to who closes, but I mean, it means something. I still like him as a long term closer option in St. Louis.

Justin Lawrence – PIT, Setup, 31.4 – While we’re on the topic of sneaky relievers, there is no sneakier reliever than Justin Lawrence. He’s my sneakiest reliever target of them all. He got out of Coors and it was like a monkey was thrown from his back with a 0.51 ERA and 33.3/11.6 K%/BB% in 17.2 IP in Pitt. He’s back at is again this spring, going 1 perfect inning with 2 K yesterday. That makes it 3 scoreless outings for him. The sweeper dominated with a 50% whiff%. The mid 90’s sinker keeps the ball on the ground. Very, very sneaky.

Konnor Griffin – PIT, SS/OF, 19.11 – 0 for 2 and is now hitting .192 in 29 PA … how about we don’t rush the still 19 year old Griffin just because Pitt is desperate. How about we let him continue his development in the upper minors. I’m all for not playing games with prospects, but that doesn’t mean we should just throw all caution to the wind. Let the guy cook a little more. When he’s destroying Triple-A and on a roll, then give him the call.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

Imaginary Brick Wall

Thursday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (3/12/26)

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