Steele Hall – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on January 6, 2026 by Michael Halpern

Top 161 2026 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon)

The day has arrived for the first BIG list drop of 2026! It’s one of my favorite days of the year where I unleash my Top 161 2026 FYPD Ranks, followed up by a Target & Strategy Guide that goes over who I’m targeting exactly, and what my general mindset and strategy would be surrounding the draft. It’s always fun to evaluate a new crop of players, and it’s even more fun to follow what they turn into in 2026. Sometimes your 1st round pick is a bust, but it’s made up by your 3rd round pick who is all of a sudden an elite prospect. That is the way of the first year player. We don’t know until they get out there, but we’ll do our darndest to predict which way it’s going to go. Top 12 free here on the Brick Wall! Here is the Top 161 2026 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
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–2026 DEEP POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 80 C–Top 91 1B–Top 97 2B–Top 101 3B–Top 161 SS
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–OFF-SEASON CONTENT: Dynasty Team Reports (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy of the Day), Deep Positional Rankings, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Position by Position Targets, 2026 & Prime/Peak Projections, Top 1,000+ Dynasty Rankings, Top 500+ Prospects Rankings, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks + much more

1) Tatsuya Imai – HOU, RHP, 27.11 – Let’s start with the elephant in the room, which is that Imai didn’t sign as big of a contract as expected (3 years, $54-$63 million with 2 opt outs), but it’s not moving me off him as the #1 pick in FYPD’s. For one, I love the landing spot. Houston puts their pitchers in position to succeed and I trust them with Imai’s transition. I also don’t think the deal is that bad at all. He’s very likely to make over 20 million a year if he doesn’t opt out, and those opts outs have really huge upside on them. If he dominates, he can land an absolutely huge deal. Don’t underrate how valuable those opt outs are. I still think this deal shows that Imai is expected to be a very good pitcher, and everything else in his profile says we should expect him to be a very good pitcher too. He dominated the 2nd best baseball league in the world, he’s smack dab in the middle of his prime, he’s coming over right as he’s peaking, he has the stuff/pitch mix to back it all up, and he has both a high floor and a high ceiling. If this were a better First Year Player Draft Class, or if this was like last year’s class, he probably wouldn’t be 1st overall (I would 100% have Roch Cholowsky ranked over him from the 2026 draft class, for instance), but in this year’s class, I don’t even really think it’s that tough of a call. He put up a 1.92 ERA with a 27.8/7.0 K%/BB% in 163.2 IP in the NPB in 2025. For reference, Yamamoto put up a 1.21 ERA with a 26.6/4.4 K%/BB% in 164 IP the year before he came over, and then his first year in the majors he had a 3.00 ERA and 28.5/6.0 K%/BB% in 90 IP, meaning, there is no guarantee Imai’s strikeout rates are going to go down in the majors. They might go up, as Imai mentioned how contact oriented the hitters in Japan are, and he’s looking forward to the challenge of facing guys who actually swing for the fences. He completely owns the mound when he’s out there with a calm, loose, athletic, and easy righty delivery that he uses to fire a mid 90’s fastball, a plus “reverse” slider, and a plus splitter/changeup (he throws both). His stuff misses bats, induces weak contact, and keeps the ball in the park (48.3% GB%). His control and strikeout rates have been improving over the last 5 years, so like I mentioned, he’s coming over at the perfect time when he’s at his peak. We have seen more than enough aces come over from the NPB and either remain an ace in MLB (Yamamoto, Yu Darvish-who also saw his K rates rise in MLB), or at the least be an impact fantasy starter (Imanaga, Senga), that the transition doesn’t seem super risky. There is risk of course with a new baseball, country, etc … but everyone in First Year Player Drafts have risk, and Imai almost definitely has the least risk of anybody. He’s only 5’11”, but Yamamoto is 5’10”, so I don’t really care too much about that either. I don’t see how you could take Doyle or Anderson over him just evaluating the top pitchers on the board, and while you can argue for a high school bat, Imai’s ceiling as a #2 starter seems plenty high enough to not feel too tempted by the bats. He’s my top dog and I’m not too torn about it. – 2026 Projection: 12/3.57/1.21/165 in 165 IP

2) Eli Willits – WSH, SS, 18.4 – Willits is the default #1 pick in 2026 First Year Player Drafts (non Imai division, who shouldn’t even be in FYPD’s, and isn’t in FYPD’s in most of my leagues). That is so unexciting to say for the first pick, but it’s exactly what Washington did in the real MLB Draft too, taking Willits 1st overall. They looked out into the rest of this draft class and just saw warts all the over place, saying, let’s just take the safest guy who checks the most boxes. Willits has one of the best hit tools in the class, he has a good SS glove, he has baseball bloodlines (you might remember Reggie Willits), he’s got speed, he’s got good size (6’1”), and he’s one of the youngest players in the class. He then cemented that safe profile in his pro debut, slashing .300/.397/.360 with 0 homers, 2 steals, and a 20.7/12.1 K%/BB% in 15 games as a 17 year old at Single-A. He had no major lift or pull issues with a 38.9% GB% and 44.7% Pull%, so when the power ticks up naturally, which his size and age say it should, the homers should come. He’s not the pick that is really going to get the juices flowing when you select him, but he’s the safe play. You can take a pitcher (Doyle/Anderson/Hernandez), but you only have to look to Roki last year to see the risk there. You can take Holliday, but we just saw that hit tool risk. You can go JoJo or Steele, but there is risk in not having seen them in pro ball. You can take Kilby, which that idea is growing on me, but it seems way too cute to take the 29th overall pick 1st overall. You can take Ethan Conrad, but … okay, no buts there, maybe you should take him 😉 … but you get the point. Willits simply checks off the most boxes, even if he doesn’t currently have that electric upside we want with the top pick. I wouldn’t blame you at all for choosing a more risky path, but Willits is my top dog, not including the Japanese veterans. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 93/18/72/.283/.358/.438/29

3) Liam Doyle – STL, LHP, 21.10 – Having an elite fastball is so important if you want to truly break into to the upper echelon of MLB pitchers. I wrote about it in the Blue Jays Team Report when I was giving my reasoning for going Burns over Yesavage (I still love Yesevage) as the #1 pitching prospect in baseball, and it’s my reasoning for giving Doyle the very slight edge over Kade Anderson in FYPD Rankings. Doyle has the type of overpowering, high strikeout, mid to upper 90’s, elite movement profile fastball that has the potential to simply bulldoze through the minors in the blink of an eye, a la Chase Burns. He’s not as good as Chase Burns, but he’s the closest thing this draft has to him. The secondaries aren’t as impressive as the fastball, which is where the edge goes to Anderson (and Anderson has an excellent fastball too despite the mediocre velocity), but I think they get undersold. The splitter dominated college hitters with elite whiff rates, the slider has above average potential with bat missing ability, and he’s working on a cutter too. His 42.6% K% led all of D1, and the 8.3 BB% shows the control isn’t in the true danger zone. I also think it says something that the Cardinals drafted him 5th overall. This isn’t the usual Cardinals type of pitcher. They lean floor over upside (although that seems to be changing of late). But quite clearly they fell in love with Doyle’s upside, which I’m also falling in love with. Kade Anderson is the safer choice and he landed in the perfect situation in Seattle, but I lean pure explosion, and Doyle has more of that explosion than Anderson has right now. St. Louis also has a pitcher’s park. Doyle is my top pitcher in FYPD’s, non Imai division, and it sure seems like he’s going to debut in 2026. – 2026 Projection: 4/3.82/1.27/75 in 70 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.33/1.07/209 in 178 IP

4) Kade Anderson – SEA, LHP, 21.10 – Anderson couldn’t have asked for a better landing spot than Seattle (3rd overall). Even after falling in love with Doyle’s explosiveness and pure nastiness, pitching in Seattle almost gives Anderson that extra upside nudge to match Doyle’s. And even if Anderson doesn’t have the pure stuff of Doyle, he beats Doyle on pitchability. He’s a 6’2”, 175 pound lefty with an above average to plus 4 pitch mix. The 93 MPH fastball misses tons of bats with a great movement profile, the plus slider is his main breaker, but he throws a plus curve too, and the changeup is a plus weapon vs. righties. He knows how to pitch, he throws the ball over the plate, and there is definitely some projection left on his frame, meaning there is a chance the fastball can sit mid 90’s at peak. It all led to a 3.18 ERA with a 37.4/7.3 K%/BB% in 119 IP in the SEC. It does seem more #2/3 than true top of the rotation at the moment, but again, Seattle give him a bump, and the fastball could tick up in the future. He’s the safer choice over Doyle, and it’s not like he doesn’t have upside himself. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 13/3.45/1.17/190 in 180 IP

5) Ethan Conrad – CHC, OF, 21.9 – If there is one guy in this FYPD class that really makes me tingle. The guy who I would hate to leave the draft without. The guy I want to say is my guy, it’s Ethan Conrad (Kilby is a close 2nd). He can so easily become the best fantasy player in this draft, and that isn’t even close to a stretch. He’s 6’3”, 220 pounds, and I’m in love with his lefty swing. It’s loose, athletic, upright, and then he absolutely unfurls on the baseball like a big cat striking it’s prey. He was in the midst of a junior year power explosion with 7 homers in 21 games in the ACC before hurting shoulder diving for a ball which required surgery to repair. But you know I’ve been loving the shoulder surgery discount with so many hitters coming back completely fine, and obviously the Cubs thought the same thing stealing him at 17th overall in the Draft. Not only is the power no joke, but he’s fast and he loves to run with 77 steals in 88 attempts in 200 amateur games. He’s also hit extremely well everywhere he’s been since his freshman year. He had a .813 OPS in 200 PA his freshman year in the MAAC, he topped that his sophomore year in the MAC with a 1.171 OPS in 259 PA, he then went to the Cape and put up a .920 OPS in 120 PA, and then he transferred into the ACC and dropped a 1.238 OPS in 21 games. He’s literally never not hit, and his contact rates have always been pretty damn good too with a 14.4% K% this year, a 15% K% in the Cape and a 12.4% K% his sophomore year in the MAAC. He’s had some chase issues throughout this career, he’s yet to really face super tough competition as he was just getting into the meat of his ACC schedule before getting hurt, and I guess there is some risk coming off the shoulder surgery, but all of that just looks like it opens up a giant buying opportunity to me. Conrad is the guy I’m really targeting in this draft. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 83/24/88/.262/.324/.461/21

6) JoJo Parker – TOR, SS, 19.8 – Selected 8th overall in the 2025 MLB Draft, Parker has the type of lefty swing that is easy to dream on. It’s easy, smooth, fast, and powerful from a strong 6’2”, 195 pound frame. It’s one of those swings that screams plus hit/power combo, and he has the production to match with excellent contact rates, plate skills, and exit velocity numbers. He’s not known as the fastest guy, but he put up some impressive run times, and he could be the type to run more than we think. In short, he’s the Walker Jenkins of this draft class. Jenkins was the Kyle Tucker of his draft class. It’s literally the Russian Nesting Dolls of FYPD prospects with each of them one inch shorter than the last one. Perfect fits. Hit, power, size, and sneaky athleticism. I get it if he’s your top dog in First Year Player Drafts, and if he debuted and hit well, he might have been mine, but he’s still a total mystery vs. pro pitching as he’s yet to debut. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 82/24/86/.274/.345/.462/16

7) Dax Kilby – NYY, SS, 19.5 – If you know me at all, you know I’m the OG pro debut breakout hype beast, going back to 2015/16, and nobody had a pro debut breakout like Kilby had. He slashed .353/.457/.441 with 0 homers, 16 steals, and a 13.6/16.0 K%/BB% in 18 games at Single-A as an 18 year old. Sure he didn’t hit a homer, but when it comes with a 91.9 MPH EV and 45.6% Hard Hit%, I’m not that concerned about it. The only flaw of the debut was the 1 degree launch, but this type of profile can still thrive with a low launch, and if he can raise that launch, watch out. I was already a big fan before the debut, ranking him highly in my original FYPD Rankings, writing, “Selected 39th overall in the 2025 MLB Draft, Kilby is a projectable 6’2” with a vicious and smooth lefty swing that has power potential written all over it if he can put on good weight. He’s currently more of a line drive, hit tool focused prospect with good speed, so either the power can tick up naturally to enhance that profile, or he can make an approach change to really tap into that hopeful raw power gain in the future. I love the swing, projection, hit tool and athleticism, which is a lot to like. If you can’t draft high enough to grab one of the top high school bats with big present power, you might as well take your shot on a guy who could develop that power down the line.” … obviously his awesome debut, where he showed more raw power than even I was expecting, is going to push his price way up, but I think he’s worth that high price. I’m all in. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 93/20/79/.278/.357/.445/30

8) Munetaka Murakami – CHW, 3B/1B, 26.2 – Murakami doesn’t just have red flags, he’s carrying around and waving the biggest red flag we’ve ever seen. It would be crazy to just ignore it or even downplay it any way. In 2025, he put up a 28.6% K% in 56 games. In 2024 he put up a 29.5% K% with a .244 BA in 143 games. In 2023 he put up a 28.1% K% with a .256 BA in 140 games. This isn’t just a blip. To say the hit tool is a risk would be an understatement, and it’s why it’s not surprising that he only landed a 2 year, $34 million deal with the White Sox. That really tells you everything you need to know about how high risk he is, but at the same time, Chicago didn’t hand him $34 million for nothing. He got that money for his possibly elite power. He hit 22 homers in just 56 games last year. He has a 56 homer season under his belt in 2022. The bat speed and Hard Hit are truly elite at 6’2”, 213 pounds. His BA can be in the low .200’s and still be an impact fantasy bat with that kind of power. And when you compare him to the FYPD kids, it’s not like all of those guys don’t have plenty of risk themselves. Chicago is the perfect landing spot for him because he is going to get full runway and leash to let it fly and see what happens. He’s not good on defense, but again, in Chicago, it really doesn’t matter for us because they are going to play him at 1B/DH until/unless the wheels completely fall off. And even then, they probably still throw him out there. If you prefer the win now bat, I can see jumping Murakami over Parker and Kilby, but the extreme hit tool concerns would have me hesitant to take him much higher than that. – 2026 Projection: 69/27/81/.222/.320/.460/6

9) Steele Hall – CIN, SS, 18.8 – Selected 9th overall in the 2025 MLB Draft, Hall’s double plus speed and athleticism is his calling card, giving him enticing fantasy upside just based on that, and there is a chance his power potential is being considerably underrated. He’s one of the youngest players in the draft, and while he’s not a huge guy at 5’11”, his righty swing is super fast, explosive, and he knows how to lift it. His power already took a big jump last off-season with tacked on muscle, and if he was able to do it once, who says he can’t keep on tacking on mass. The biggest issue is that he struggles vs. breaking balls, and generally when you go after these type of speed prospects, you want their hit tool to be a plus, rather than a risk. The upside is super fun, especially hitting in Cincinnati, and his young age gives some added legroom for both the power and breaking ball struggles. He has a chance to be a fantasy beast. – ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 86/18/74/.251/.321/.427/37

10) Ethan Holliday – COL, SS, 19.1 – The full 5 alarm, hide the women and children, blood in the streets panic mode is in full swing, and there is no putting that genie back in the bottle after Holliday put up a 39.3% K% in his 18 game pro debut at Single-A, but let me try to talk you off the ledge. We only have to look at Charlie Condon’s horrific pro debut as the example to follow for Holliday. Condon had more of a track record to fall back on, but Holliday was only 18 years old, just getting his feet wet. Like Condon, of course it removes Holliday completely from the 1st overall conversation, but I don’t think it should remove him from the Top 10 range. Even with the extreme swing and miss, he still hit the ball very hard, showing off his prodigious power potential at 6’4”, 210 pounds, and he still put up an above average 108 wRC+. It wasn’t a complete disaster. We already knew he had hit tool risk coming out of the draft, so it was stupid in my opinion for Colorado to debut him this year anyway. What did they think was going to happen? Why not give the kid an off-season to really prepare, instead of throwing him into the fire and likely getting in his head due to the struggles. We know Colorado is awful at development, but Ethan has both his father, Matt, and brother, Jackson, to fall back on and help with both the mental and physical part of the game. You know I’m the OG of putting a ton of weight on pro debuts, so I 100% hit that panic meter immediately, but there has to be a limit to the panic when the talent is still so huge, and Holliday’s talent is huge. My bet is on a much better K% in 2026. I’m going to do with him exactly what I did with Condon, which is drop him to the Top 10 range. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 84/27/88/.261/.342/.476/12

11) Luis Hernandez – SFG, SS, 17.4 – Hernandez is the consensus top player in the 2026 international class, and from everything I’ve read and watched, it seems to me that Leo De Vries is the closest “prototype” to the type of #1 overall prospect he is. He’s not getting the level of hype that Leo got, so I’m not saying he’s as good as Leo, but it’s a similar evaluation where Hernandez is just so far out ahead skills wise for his age. Scouts said Leo wouldn’t have embarrassed himself if he played in the majors at 17, and while who knows if that is true, we saw what he’s been able to do at 17-18 years old in the minors, so I don’t doubt it. Hernandez gives that same vibe with him already dominating a grown man’s league in the Venezuelan Major League, hitting .346. That video I linked shows the smooth swing and feel to hit against that advanced competition. Like Leo, Hernandez doesn’t necessarily jump off the screen in a pure size/tools sense at 5’10”, 180 pounds (Leo is 6’1”, so again, he’s not as good as Leo), but that doesn’t mean the exciting tools aren’t in here. You can see that smooth athleticism and the tight build that is only going to get stronger and stronger. The swing is fast and athletic and it’s geared for both contact and power with the ability to lift and pull. He’s not a burner, but he’s a good athlete who should steal plenty of bags. With his success against older competition already, he feels as safe as an international prospect gets, and while the upside may not be obviously off the charts, Jesus Made’s and Josuar Gonzalez’ builds aren’t far off. There is still a lot of risk with international prospects, but it feels like “we” are getting better and better at evaluating them before they turn pro. The guys at the very tippy top of the class generally become really, really good prospects, so I don’t want to be too risk averse. Hernandez deserves to be valued right with the best high school bats in the MLB Draft class, but the thing keeping him towards the back of that area is that he will play in SF. That ballpark just subdues everyone offensively, and it is slightly preventing me from going even higher than this. – ETA: 2030 Prime Projection: 88/22/76/.272/.341/.446/20

12) Seth Hernandez – PIT, RHP, 19.9 – Selected 6th overall in the 2025 MLB Draft, Hernandez has the highest pure upside of any arm in the class. He’s a great athlete with prototypical size at 6’4”, 195 pounds, and the stuff is filthy with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and a double plus changeup. The breakers (slider, curve) aren’t quite as impressive, and can be inconsistent, but they definitely have the potential to get to plus at peak. And his control/command is really strong for a high school starter with this level of stuff, generally throwing all of his pitches around the plate. I would be lying if I didn’t mention that I see at least some shades of Brock Porter, who had a very similar profile as a 19 year old starter with upper 90’s heat, an elite change, and inconsistent breakers. That also underscores how risky high school righties have traditionally been in the draft. Noble Meyer and Dylan Lesko can attest to that. Even Jackson Jobe and Andrew Painter, who have risen to elite prospect status, needed Tommy John and have had their struggles of late. But Hunter Greene exists too. There is an argument to let someone else draft Hernandez, and then buy low on him after he gets Tommy John surgery. But the top of the rotation upside is undeniable, and that upside is worth the risk. If you like going after high school arms more than I do in the 1st round of FYPD’s, I can see ranking him higher than this, but that just isn’t how I play the game really. Hernandez would have to fall for me to get him anywhere. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 14/3.45/1.13/200 in 180 IP

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

Posted on November 18, 2025November 22, 2025 by Michael Halpern

Cincinnati Reds 2026 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

It’s all about the Reds today on the Brick Wall, and there are targets galore to go after on this team. Like during the regular season, I will be posting a few articles a month for free here on Imaginary Brick Wall with the vast majority of the content over on the Patreon. The Patreon is cooking with deep Positional Rankings kicking off last week, my analysis of Imai, Murakami, and Okamoto for FYPD’s dropping yesterday, a Top 70 Sneak Peek of the 2026 Top 1,000 already up, and 17 Dynasty Team Reports completed. Here is the Cincinnati Reds 2026 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 70 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2026 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
–END OF SEASON 2025 TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
–END OF SEASON 2025 TOP 325 PROSPECTS RANKS
-TOP 60 2026 FYPD RANKS w/ Analysis & Prime Projections for every player
–2026 Deep Positional Rankings: Top 80 Catchers
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: END OF SEASON MAILBAG!
–SPREADSHEETS
–OFF-SEASON CONTENT: Dynasty Team Reports (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy of the Day), Deep Positional Rankings, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Position by Position Targets, 2026 & Prime/Peak Projections, Top 1,000+ Dynasty Rankings, Top 500+ Prospects Rankings, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks + much more

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Arizona Diamondbacks—Atlanta Braves—Baltimore Orioles—Chicago Cubs (free)—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—New York Yankees (free)—Pittsburgh Pirates (free)—Seattle Mariners—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

Hitters

Spencer Steer – CIN, 1B, 28.4 – Steer is one of my favorite buy low vets for 2026. He got off to a rough start to the season with his Hard Hit rate way down, but we know the reason for that. He had a shoulder injury that required a cortisone shot in spring which wiped out basically his enter spring training. He couldn’t play the field due to the injury until late April. It’s clear he wasn’t 100%, and it resulted in a 9.8 point drop in Hard Hit% through July. He went from a 39.9% Hard Hit% in 2024 to a 30.1% Hard Hit% in his first 101 games, but it was a different story in August and September. The shoulder obviously started to feel much better, and not only did his Hard Hit% rebound, but it jumped to career best levels. He put up a 37% Hard Hit% in August and then a 47.4% Hard Hit% in September. At the very least, it seems likely the Hard Hit rate will jump back up into the high 30’s, and with a full off-season to get healthy and stronger entering his age 28 year old season, my bet is that he will be at career high levels. I think September was just a taste for the future. He also ran far less than he did in 2023-24, but when you are nursing an injury, it’s only natural to not risk getting hurt on the bases. He was still 7 for 8 when he did run, and he has a 28 ft/sec sprint, so the ability for 20+ is still in here if he so chooses, and I think he will choose to run a lot more in 2026. Combined with his lift and pull profile (18.8 degree launch with a 25.8% Air Pull%), plate skills (21.6/10.1 career K%/BB%), and great ballpark, all signs point towards a big 2026 season for Steer. Between 1B, DH, and LF, I’m not worried about his playing time either. Buy the dip. – 2026 Projection: 77/24/89/.252/.331/.445/15

Noelvi Marte – CIN, 3B/OF, 24.6 – I want to name Marte a major target, but seeing his 134th overall NFBC redraft ADP, and knowing his value is probably even stronger in dynasty, I actually don’t think my value of him is all that different from consensus. People like him, and so do I, but there are enough flaws in the profile for me to stop short of saying I would truly pay up much higher than where he’s currently going. When I give my “Targets,” I try to give real sharp targets based on perceived value. If I name a target who is already being valued pretty highly, like Hunter Greene last off-season, it’s because I still don’t think that high value is high enough. They aren’t just “breakout” picks. Not to say giving “breakout” picks isn’t valuable, but if everyone agrees that someone is a good breakout candidate, I can’t call them a true target. And the main thing stopping me short from going full 5 alarm target status on Marte relative to perceived value is that the 36.3% Hard Hit% and 91.4 MPH FB/LD EV are pretty mediocre. It sat 35.5% in August and September, so you can’t say it was getting better either. The other reasons are that the plate skills are rough with a 23.6/4.4 K%/BB%, the contact is below average with a 27.1% whiff%, and he’s in defensive limbo with a move to RF where we still don’t know how good he’s going to be out there. But the reason he’s a major breakout candidate is because he’s an electric talent with a 73.3 MPH swing and 29 ft/sec sprint. He already broke out somewhat in 2025, bouncing back from his PED induced down year, hitting .263 with 14 homers and 10 steals in 90 games. He improved his lift and pull with a 12.7 degree launch and 17.6% Air Pull%, and Cincinnati is one of the best hitter’s parks in the game. 20/20 with a solid BA seems reasonable, and the talent is in here to do much more than that with continued improvement and more hard hit, which should come considering that bat speed. He’s worth his current high price. – 2026 Projection: 75/23/77/.258/.309/.445/19

Matt McLain – CIN, 2B, 26.8 – I can’t say my faith in a McLain bounce back is as strong as my faith in a Steer bounce back, and that is because I don’t trust the hit tool. His batting average tanked to .220 which is backed up by the .213 xBA and 28.9/9.5 K%/BB% in 147 games. Maybe you can say he was shaking off the rust after missing the entire 2024 season with a shoulder and rib injury, but you would have hoped to see him improving as the year went on, and that wasn’t the case. He was even worse at the end of the year with a 35.4% K% in August and September. He can hit it hard enough with 40%+ Hard Hit rates, and he can lift it with a 16.3 degree launch, but the very low 12.9% Air Pull% is why he still only managed 15 homers in 147 games. He’s fast and he runs with 18 steals (and the capability for more if he can get on base more), and he’s a good 2B, so the glove should keep on the field. The fantasy friendly upside is most certainly still in here, and I would bet on a better season in 2026, but I’m not confident enough in it to call him a target. He’s actually going higher than Steer at 203rd overall (Steer is going 226th), and I also sense his value is stronger in dynasty, so I don’t foresee myself getting much McLain this off-season. – 2026 Projection: 76/19/65/.238/.315/.420/22

Pitchers

Nick Lodolo – CIN, LHP, 28.2 – Just call him Nick “The Eternal Target” Lodolo, because for the 28th straight year, Lodolo is a target this off-season. Can’t say I didn’t see it coming, both in terms of him breaking out in 2025, and in terms of him still somehow remaining an underrated target, writing in his Top 1,000 blurb last off-season, “The Eternal Buy Low is back at it again. It wouldn’t be a dynasty baseball off-season without Nick Lodolo being a buy low candidate. I imagine that one day I will be in my 80’s, and I will be writing about how Nick Lodolo Jr. is a great buy low candidate. Like father, like son (or maybe like grandfather, like grandson at that point). It’s been a frustrating start to his career because we all know there is so much more in here, but I’m not letting that frustration get to me. Certainly do not sell low on this man, and once again, target him.,” … and now that he broke out in 2025 with a 3.33 ERA and 24.3/4.8 K%/BB% in 156.2 IP, paying off majorly if you’ve been taking my advice over the years … he’s still somehow underrated and a target. Even in the breakout, he left hints that this isn’t the peak, and those “hints” were a 2.90 ERA with a 27.4/4.8 K%/BB% in his last 77.2 IP. The 27.5% whiff% on the season is well above average, and it jumped to 34.7% in those final 77.2 IP. He’s always been a big strikeout guy throughout his career. That 24.3% is so clearly on the very low end of his ability, and as we saw in the 2nd half, he has the ability to combine his newfound elite walk rates with a high strikeout rate. The 93.8 MPH fastball isn’t dominant, but it’s a good pitch with a 23.1% whiff% and .305 xwOBA. The curve is a whiff machine with a 40.3% whiff% and .212 xwOBA. And the changeup and sinker were actually his two best pitches by Statcast Run Value with a +7 on each pitch. Both pitches keep the ball on the ground. Maybe it’s that people are still super scared off by Great American Ball Park, but I’ve been hitting on targets like crazy the past few years by not being scared of it. I’ve hit on Greene (see below), Lodolo and Burns (I guess that remains to be seen), and I’m going to keep going to that well on all 3. Lodolo has only 409.2 IP in his career, so he’s still in the ascending part of his career. 2026 is the year where it truly all comes together for that career year. He’s never been more of a target, and I’m sure going into 2027, he will somehow still be a target. – 2026 Projection: 13/3.28/1.11/185 in 165 IP

Hunter Greene – CIN, RHP, 26.8 – I nailed Greene’s ace breakout in 2024, calling him a major target, and then I doubled down in 2025, predicting that wasn’t even the peak. Who else predicts a random jump in control but me? Greene had a 9% BB% in 2022, a 9.6% BB% in 2023, and a 9.3% BB% in 2024, and I looked at that and said, you know what, I’m smelling improvement coming, writing in his Top 1,000 blurb last off-season, “His control/command remained below average, but I still think there is another level in here as he stays healthy and gains more experience. I don’t even think this is the peak, assuming he stays healthy, which who knows there honestly (he missed time with elbow inflammation this year). Greene had the ace breakout I knew was coming, and I’m going to continue to buy high.” … and then he went out in 2025 and proved me prescient with that huge jump in control I saw coming, putting up a 6.2% BB%. It wasn’t a “random” prediction of course. It was me betting on his athleticism and work ethic, and it resulted in the cementation of true ace status with a 2.76 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and a 31.4/6.2 K%/BB% in 107.2 IP. The 99.5 MPH 4-seamer put up a +20 Run Value which was tied for 5th best in baseball and the double plus slider put up a 46.9% whiff%. You can ding him for injury risk as he only pitched 107.2 IP and has never pitched more 150.1 IP in a season, but it was a groin injury that knocked him out for over 2 months this year, so I find it hard to really hold that against him too much. He also didn’t improve his third pitch at all, the splitter, with a negative 5 Run Value on the pitch. The negatives are enough to very clearly keep him out of the true top tier, but you know I’m going to keep betting on this kid. He ranked 36th overall on A Top 70 Sneak Peek of the 2026 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). – 2026 Projection: 13/3.22/1.06/207 in 170 IP

Cincinnati Reds 2026 Top 10 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Prospects Rankings

1) Chase Burns – CIN, RHP, 23.2 – Chase Burns is my #1 pitching prospect in baseball (at least in leagues that use the 50 IP threshold, like most of my leagues do, and not service time, because based on service time he’s not prospect eligible anymore). I was high on him in First Year Player Drafts last off-season, ranking him 4th overall, because I saw the type of true ace upside that was worth sticking your neck out for, and then he went out and proved it. He sliced through the minor leagues with a 1.77 ERA and 36.8/5.4 K%/BB% in 66 IP, and then he almost did the same in the majors with a 3.47 xERA (4.57 ERA) and a 35.6/8.5 K%/BB% in 43.1 IP. The 98.7 MPH 4-seamer is near elite with a 25.2% whiff% and +4 Run Value and the slider is also near elite with a .229 xwOBA and 43.7% whiff%. He only went to the changeup 5.6% of the time, mostly vs. lefties, but it was a solid pitch with a 33.3% whiff% and 75.7 MPH EV against. The control was really good too. He’s an athletic 6’3”, 210 pounds. I don’t see how it can get anymore obvious than this. This is a true ace waiting to happen, even pitching in Cincinnati. – 2026 Projection: 10/3.42/1.15/190 in 150 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.03/0.98/245 in 190 IP

2) Sal Stewart – CIN, 1B/3B, 22.4 – As much love as Stewart is getting right now, it’s not nearly enough. I honestly don’t see how he’s not being valued like an elite dynasty prospect. He’s always displayed near elite plate skills with a plus hit tool his entire professional career from the time he was drafted at 18 years old as the 32nd overall pick. And then in his age 21 year old season he had that monster power breakout to combine with the plate skills. He hit 20 homers with a 93.1 MPH EV, 51.3% Hard Hit%, 14.2 degree launch, and a 15.6/9.3 K%/BB% in 118 games at Triple-A. That is a special hit/power combo, and then he closed the year out by dominating the majors with 5 homers, a 95.4 MPH EV, 17.9 degree launch, 52.5% Hard Hit%, and a 23.9% whiff% in 18 games. It was good for a .399 xwOBA. That is absurd for a 21 year old in his first taste of the majors. It’s fully backed up by what he did in the minors. Him going 231st overall in NFBC is way too low, and that is just for redraft. The two biggest knocks on his game are that he’s slow with a 25.8 ft/sec sprint, but he was a solid base stealer in the minors with 17 steals in 20 attempts this year, and we’ve seen slow guys steal a ton of bags (Soto, Naylor), so I think he should at least chip in with a handful, and maybe much more than that. He’s also not great on defense, but Cincinnati has plenty of room at 1B/DH, so I don’t see that as a problem for fantasy. The dude is an elite fantasy prospect and he doesn’t quite get treated that way. – 2026 Projection: 76/25/82/.260/.328/.457/7 Prime Projection: 91/30/94/.277/.351/.502/9

3) Alfredo Duno – CIN, C, 20.3 – Duno vs. Rainiel is a really interesting debate to me as the top catcher prospect in the lower minors, and while it seems the vast majority (or maybe everybody but me, I’m not sure) has it as an easy call in Rodriguez’ direction, I can’t lie that I’m leaning Duno by a slightest of hairs. There are several reasons for that, but the two biggest are that Duno has a massive ballpark advantage (Cincy has the 2nd best ballpark for righty homers and St. Louis has the 5th worst) and Duno also has a path to playing time advantage. Essentially, I think this is Duno’s job when he’s ready and I think he is going to inherently get a longer leash with the bat and glove when he does get that chance. St. Louis is stacked at catcher up and down their organization. The other reasons I have it Duno are because he’s bigger (6’2” vs. 5’10”) and he hits it considerably harder (48.6% Hard Hit% vs. 39.2% at Single-A). Duno had a .423 xwOBA vs Rodriguez’ .368 xwOBA at Single-A. Those are vastly different xwOBA’s. You can say Rodriguez has the age to level edge, but Duno was really good at Single-A as an 18 year old too in 2024. The biggest edge to Rodriguez, and the one where this call could make me look dumb, is that he has the better contact rates. Duno had a 31% whiff% vs. Rodriguez’ 23% whiff%. But Rodriguez had a .249 BA at Single-A because he lifts and pulls an extreme amount, which is great in general, but in a terrible ballpark for righty homers, and with good but not great Hard Hit (there is little to no projection left on his frame, he’s already thick), it might not lead to the highest BA’s in the future either. I love both and it’s coin flip for me, but I have to give my raw unfiltered take on what I would do if I had this choice in my league, and my gut is just leaning Duno. He ranked 14th overall on the Top 80 Catchers: 2026 Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 71/31/87/.251/.340/.491/4

4) Steele Hall – CIN, SS, 18.8 – Selected 9th overall in the 2025 MLB Draft, Hall’s double plus speed and athleticism is his calling card, giving him enticing fantasy upside just based on that, and there is a chance his power potential is being considerably underrated. He’s one of the youngest players in the draft, and while he’s not a huge guy at 5’11”, his righty swing is super fast, explosive, and he knows how to lift it. His power already took a big jump last off-season with tacked on muscle, and if he was able to do it once, who says he can’t keep on tacking on mass. The biggest issue is that he struggles vs. breaking balls, and generally when you go after these type of speed prospects, you want their hit tool to be a plus, rather than a risk. The upside is super fun, especially hitting in Cincinnati, and his young age gives some added legroom for both the power and breaking ball struggles. He has a chance to be a fantasy beast. He ranked 6th overall on my End of Season Top 60 2026 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon). – ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 86/18/74/.251/.321/.427/37

5) Tyson Lewis – CIN, SS, 20.3 – Tyson Lewis is the Spencer Jones of the lower minors. Or the Munataka Murakami of the United States … kinda (I just dropped my Analyzing Imai, Murakami, and Okamoto for 2026 First Year Player Drafts post on the Patreon). These are the type of players who really test your risk tolerance, and while you know I’m not scared of taking on extra risk, even I have to stop and pause for a second at these atrocious contact rates. Lewis put up a 45.8% whiff% with a 35.4% K% in 35 games at Single-A. We should write him off then, right? Well no, because his talent is just as insane in the opposite direction. He’s a physical specimen at a rock solid 6’2”, and the power/speed combo is elite with a 92.4 MPH EV, 50% Hard Hit%, and 27 steals in 81 games on the season. Even with missing the ball like half of the time, he still managed a 114 wRC+. These players are honestly impossible to evaluate, because you are inevitably going to either end up too high or too low. If he can get the contact rates into a reasonable range, a la the career path of Elly De La Cruz (who wasn’t even as bad as Lewis), we could be looking at an elite dynasty asset, but if can’t, he might barely make it out of Triple-A, or he might breakout at like 27 years old on his 3rd team. We almost have no choice but to split the difference, which is why I had him ranked 57th overall on my End of Season Top 325 Dynasty Prospect Rankings (Patreon). – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 77/22/76/.229/.308/.435/24

6) Rhett Lowder – CIN, RHP, 24.1 – 2025 was a completely lost season for Lowder. A right forearm injury sidelined him until May, he got bombed in 4 outings, and then he missed almost 4 months with an oblique injury. He returned for one start at the end of the year and 4 in the AFL, so he should be fully healthy for 2026 at least. While he deserves a mulligan for the lost season, his upside was already questionable without big stuff and in a terrible ballpark. I love the ballpark discount for guys with nasty stuff like Greene/Lodolo/Burns, but not for these control over stuff guys. Lowder had a 90 Stuff+ in his 30.2 IP MLB debut in 2024 and he struggled to miss bats with a 20.1% whiff%. The fastball sits 93+ MPH and he’s got two good secondaries in his slider and changeup, so it’s not like he’s got no stuff at all, and the plus control/command helps everything play up. He got drafted 7th overall for a reason. In a better ballpark, I can see going higher than this, but in Cincinnati, I don’t see the fantasy upside to really go after him. – 2026 Projection: 2/4.29/1.32/61 in 70 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.81/1.20/164 in 170 IP

7) Hector Rodriguez – CIN, OF, 22.1 – Rodriguez has been a precocious hitter since the time he stepped on a pro field at 17 years old, and in 2025 he proved that special hit tool will have no problems in the upper minors, putting up a .283 BA with a 15% K% in 135 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. A hit tool like that generally finds it’s way onto the field, but the negatives in his profile overshadow that hit tool a bit for me. He doesn’t have much defensive value as a decent corner outfielder, he doesn’t get on base with a 46.6% Chase%, he’s not a great base stealer with 15 steals in 22 attempts on the season, the raw power is only average to maybe above average with a 39.3% Hard Hit%, and he hits the ball on the ground a ton with a 48.1% GB%. It doesn’t seem like a high upside fantasy profile or a high upside real life profile. He’s always going to have to scratch and claw for playing time because the defense ain’t great. He’s a fringe Top 100 prospect for me, and that could be generous. – 2026 Projection: 11/2/13/.255/.295/.391/3 Prime Projection: 82/16/61/.273/.322/.429/16

8) Cam Collier – CIN, 1B, 21.4 – Collier had one of the all time weird power outages in 2025. He went from hitting 20 homers in 119 games at High-A as a 19 year old, to just 4 homers in 95 games at mostly Double-A as a 20 year old. You can say it was because of the higher level, but he also hit just 1 homer in 22 games in the hitter’s paradise that is the AFL. It’s just odd. He had a 90.1 MPH EV in the AFL and he has impressive top end exit velocities, so it’s not like he can’t hit it hard either. He’s not a huge lift and pull guy, but it doesn’t go extreme in the other direction either, so that can’t fully explain it. He almost certainly got unlucky and I’m sure he will hit a lot more in 2026, but with him moving to 1B, the bat needs to be bulletproof, and 5 homers in 117 games is certainly not bulletproof. He hit well otherwise, especially for a 20 year old at Double-A with a 114 wRC+, so it wasn’t a disaster season by any stretch, but the 27.9% K% shows there is also hit tool risk here. He was useless vs lefties with a .563 OPS. I like Collier and I like his bat, but at 1B, you need to really love the bat to rank him highly, and 2025 was just too underwhelming. He’s a solid fantasy prospect but I can’t say he’s a highly valued one. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 71/22/77/.250/.332/.441/1

9) Aaron Watson – CIN, RHP, 19.3 – Selected 51st overall in the 2025 MLB Draft, Watson is a projectable 6’5”, 205 pounds who already has polished control/command over his low to mid 90’s fastball. If that thing ticks up into the mid 90’s consistently, he’s going to be dangerous just off that, and he combines that with two potentially plus secondaries in his slider and splitter. Both still need refinement and he doesn’t command them as well as the fastball, but there are a lot of really interesting ingredients here. Size, easy delivery, projection, double plus control of a good fastball, two good secondaries. There is a lot to like here. I’m a fan as a later round FYPD arm to go after. – ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 10/3.91/1.22/165 in 170 IP

10) Edwin Arroyo – CIN, SS, 22.8 – Arroyo has a good SS glove with a good feel to hit, above average speed, and upper minors production, giving him one of the safer profiles a minor league can have. He slashed .284/.345/.371 with 3 homers, 12 steals, and a 16.9/7.7 K%/BB% in 120 games at Double-A. He had a more contact oriented approach this year, putting up a career best K%, but it came at the cost of his power with a career worst 50.8% GB%. He needs to find a happy medium between the two approaches, and considering he missed all of 2024 after undergoing shoulder surgery, missing key developmental time, we might want to give him some leeway to do just that. A power breakout, or even just a leveling up will start to get his hype brewing again, but even as if, he’s not a bad prospect for medium to deeper leagues – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 74/14/56/.266/.320/.405/16

Just Missed

11) Chase Petty – CIN, RHP, 23.0

12) Stharlin Torres – CIN, RHP, 19.10

13) Mason Neville – CIN, OF, 22.3 – Selected 114th overall in the 2025 MLB Draft, the 6’3”, 200 pound Neville is a super fun fantasy prospect with big time power (26 homers in 57 games in the Big Ten) and athleticism (9 steals), but as you can see from the draft slot, MLB teams don’t think he’s going to hit. He put up a 23.6% K% this year, he had a 33.5% K% in the Pac 12 last year (a tougher conference than the Big Ten) and he had a 48.7% K% in 39 PA in the Cape. He then proved the hit tool fear correct in pro ball with a 34.4% K% and 41.7% whiff% in 23 games at Single-A. He’s a good defensive OF and can play CF, so at least his glove has a chance of getting him on the field to give the hit tool time to improve, and Cincinnati is also the most fun landing spot for a guy like this. If you want upside from a bat later in the draft that isn’t a teenager, Neville is a good option, but those contact numbers in pro ball were too extreme to really target him. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 62/18/69/.226/.305/.430/12

14) Arnaldo Lantigua – CIN, OF, 20.3

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

There is a major gap between how badly fantasy managers think Great American Ball Park tanks pitchers, and how much Great American Ball Park actually tanks pitchers. It’s really not that bad guys. It is only the 4th worst ballpark in baseball with a 103 Park Factor (3 year rolling average), meaning it’s not all that much worse than average (100 Park Factor). Coors has a 113 Park Factor for reference. For just 2025, it was actually a below average hitter’s park at 18th overall! I’m telling you, it’s really not that bad. Sure it juices up homers, but that is much more a positive for hitters than it is a negative for pitchers if the rest of the park factors mitigate that HR advantage, which is the case in Cincy. People were scared off of Greene when I was yelling buy. People were scared off of Lodolo when I was yelling buy. People were dropping Burns in FYPD Ranks because of it when I ignored it. Shit, just look at the season Andrew Abbott just had. He doesn’t even have nasty stuff and he still managed a 2.87 ERA in 166.1 IP, I’m not saying that wasn’t good luck or that is sustainable, I’m just saying you can even get random great years like that. Please do not be scared of this ballpark. It is not worthy of that level of fear, and I still see fantasy managers treat it like some horrific ballpark. I’ve been sweeping up on value because of that fear, and I plan to do the same in 2026.

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

Posted on September 11, 2025 by Michael Halpern

Updated Top 60 2026 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon)

Pro debuts always shake up the First Year Player Draft Rankings, and while of course there is risk to overreacting to a small sample at the end of a long season, I’ve found you end up getting a lot more right than you do wrong by reacting to pro debuts, both in a positive and negative direction. It’s where a guy like Charlie Condon goes from 1st overall, to the back of the Top 10. Where Jacob Berry gets tanked down rankings. Where Alex Freeland and Jacob Reimer become deep sleepers. Where you find out just how bad the hit tool is for high risk, high reward prospects, a la Elijah Green’s 40.4% K% in 12 games in rookie ball in 2022. Where you find out a hit tool first high school bat like Carter Johnson doesn’t actually have a good hit tool. You probably forgot he even existed. He followed up his 33.1% K% and .221 BA in 28 games at Single-A in 2024 with a 28.8% K% and .177 BA in 106 games in 2025. He was 18 year old in 2024 and thrown into the fire at Single-A, but it was still a very clear signal to avoid. You get the point. Pro debuts reveal a lot. Here is the link to my original Top 60 2026 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon) with full scouting reports, ETA’s, and Prime Projections. And of course my full Top 100+ 2026 First Year Player Draft Rankings gets released over the off-season with full analysis and Prime Projections. Until then, here is the Updated Top 60 2026 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (Top 10 free here on the Brick Wall):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
–AUGUST 2025 TOP 444 DYNASTY RANKS (End of Season Ranks coming soon)
–END OF SEASON 2025 TOP 325 PROSPECTS RANKS
-TOP 60 2026 FYPD RANKS w/ Analysis & Prime Projections for every player
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–SPREADSHEETS
–OFF-SEASON CONTENT: Dynasty Team Reports (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy of the Day), Deep Positional Rankings, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Top 1,000+ Dynasty Rankings, Top 500+ Prospects Rankings, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks + much more

1) Eli Willits – WSH, SS, 17.8 – It’s pretty wild to say that even the #1 overall pick is wide open in First Year Player Drafts. There are probably 11 guys that could get taken here and it would be completely reasonable. Maybe even more than that. I’ve never seen a First Year Player Draft that was more “get your guy” than this one. It also means that team needs and win timeline would legitimately come into play for me with this pick. If you already have a very strong young offensive core, and/or if your minor league system is already overstuffed with great hitting prospects who are on the verge of debuting, but you’ve neglected pitching in the rebuild (which is mostly how I build), then I would pivot to Doyle or Anderson with this pick. I hate taking pitchers first, but with no true top elite bats, it’s completely reasonable to take a pitcher first, even in a vacuum, so if your team construction also dictates you should go pitcher, 100% go for it. But if you have the 1st pick because your team was terrible, you are full tear down, and you desperately need to build up a young offensive core, I wouldn’t want to take a pitcher. I’m not holding a pitcher for 3+ years or whatever while I have no shot of competing. And like I said, building that offensive core is of the utmost importance. In that case, Willits’ debut was good enough to have real life mirror fantasy and take him #1 overall. He was only 17 years old and showed off a good feel to hit, aggressive base running, and no lift and pull issues. If he gains power as he ages, and I don’t see why he wouldn’t, this is an impact all category fantasy contributor.

2) Liam Doyle – STL, LHP, 21.3 – Doyle is my top arm, but it’s honestly a coin flip with Anderson. I’m giving the lean to the double plus, upper 90’s fastball. I also think the changeup is underrated. And while Seattle is the best place to pitch, St. Louis is a good pitcher’s park too

3) Kade Anderson – SEA, LHP, 21.2 – I fear that Anderson is more mid rotation startery than optimal for a super high FYPD pick in fantasy, but maybe that is just velocity discrimination getting in the way. He has more pitchability than Doyle, and while the heater sits more 93 MPH, it is a bat missing pitch with carry. The curve, slider and change and are all good pitches. And he’ll pitch in Seattle. Zero issue having him as your top arm.

4) Ethan Conrad – CHC, OF, 21.2 – If I had balls I would put Conrad #1 overall. Dude is 6’3”, 220, he has that upright, loose, and athletic swing that I love, he’s a great athlete with speed, he has power, and he has production. He destroyed the MAAC his Sophomore year, and then did the same in the Cape, and then did the same in the Perfect Game Collegiate League and then did the same to the ACC before hurting his shoulder. I said the same thing about Konnor Griffin last year. If you have more guts than I do, I can see taking him 1st overall. And maybe by this off-season, I will grow a pair and do it. But for now, I’m comfortable being already super high on him at #4 overall. I see him going like mid teens in recent drafts anyway

5) JoJo Parker – TOR, SS, 19.1 – Yet to debut. He’s the Walker Jenkins of this draft class. Jenkins was the Kyle Tucker of his draft class. It’s literally the Russian Nesting Dolls of FYPD prospects with each of them one inch shorter than the last one. Perfect fits. Hit, power, size, and sneaky athleticism. I get it if he’s your top dog

6) Steele Hall – CIN, SS, 18.2 – Hall had some hit tool questions surrounding his ability to hit the breaking ball, so smart of Cincinnati not to debut him. If I were an MLB organization, I also wouldn’t debut a high schooler with hit tool issues right after he gets drafted. What do you think is going to happen? He’s an 18 year old kid. Why let that get in his head over the off-season? Let him come into 2026 fresh and fully prepared. So we know the risk, but the upside is no joke with an explosive swing that I love, present power even though he’s only 5’11”, and game breaking base running. I’ll take the hit tool mystery box over the hit tool that is no longer a mystery …

7) Ethan Holliday – COL, SS, 18.7 – Colorado of course had zero tact, zero strategy, zero anything, they just threw Holliday and his known risky hit tool right into the fire to get burned. He has a 39.3% K% in 18 games and that doesn’t even include his Golden Sombrero from his last game. I’m not going full panic, but it couldn’t be more clear there is very, very, very real hit tool risk in here. And we have to trust Colorado to develop that hit tool. This is as high as I’m comfortable going on him

8) Seth Hernandez – PIT, RHP, 19.2 – Yet to debut. High school righties are a nightmare class of prospect. Just look at Noble Meyer and Dylan Lesko. Also look at Andrew Painter and Forrest Whitley. Even when it starts out well, it can turn. It is just a long, hard road. Having said that, Hunter Greene exists too. The upside is high, but so is the risk.

9) Aiva Arquette – MIA, SS, 21.11 – I would have liked nothing more than for Arquette to rip up the lower minors and establish himself as not only the top college bat, but also the #1 pick in FYPD’s, but it didn’t happen. He slashed .242/.350/.323 with 1 homer, a 47.2% GB%, and a 23.1/14.5 K%/BB% in 27 games at High-A. It’s good for a 102 wRC+. The silver lining is that he’s running with 7 steals. Part of the allure of Arquette is that there still seems to be upside in here at 6’5”, 220 with smooth athleticism and big raw power, so I’m not going to let the mediocre debut completely turn me off. But I can’t be the only one underwhelmed by this

10) Dax Kilby – NYY, SS, 18.10 – You already know I’m all in on Kilby. He is what the pro debut breakouts are all about, and he’s the #1 pro debut breakout in 2025. He slashed .353/.457/.441 with 0 homers, 16 steals, and a 13.6/16.0 K%/BB% in 18 games at Single-A. He already hits the ball extremely hard with a 91.9 MPH EV and 45.6% Hard Hit%, he has speed, and he’s 6’2”, 190 pounds. The only thing he doesn’t have is lift and pull with a 1 degree launch and 8.8% Air Pull%. I’m not even sure 10 is high enough. Is Eli Willits profile all that different? And it seems Kilby is the bigger, more fully formed version of it. I said there were 11 guys who I can reasonably see going #1 overall, and I meant it.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)