Seth Hernandez – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on January 6, 2026 by Michael Halpern

Top 161 2026 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon)

The day has arrived for the first BIG list drop of 2026! It’s one of my favorite days of the year where I unleash my Top 161 2026 FYPD Ranks, followed up by a Target & Strategy Guide that goes over who I’m targeting exactly, and what my general mindset and strategy would be surrounding the draft. It’s always fun to evaluate a new crop of players, and it’s even more fun to follow what they turn into in 2026. Sometimes your 1st round pick is a bust, but it’s made up by your 3rd round pick who is all of a sudden an elite prospect. That is the way of the first year player. We don’t know until they get out there, but we’ll do our darndest to predict which way it’s going to go. Top 12 free here on the Brick Wall! Here is the Top 161 2026 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings:

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1) Tatsuya Imai – HOU, RHP, 27.11 – Let’s start with the elephant in the room, which is that Imai didn’t sign as big of a contract as expected (3 years, $54-$63 million with 2 opt outs), but it’s not moving me off him as the #1 pick in FYPD’s. For one, I love the landing spot. Houston puts their pitchers in position to succeed and I trust them with Imai’s transition. I also don’t think the deal is that bad at all. He’s very likely to make over 20 million a year if he doesn’t opt out, and those opts outs have really huge upside on them. If he dominates, he can land an absolutely huge deal. Don’t underrate how valuable those opt outs are. I still think this deal shows that Imai is expected to be a very good pitcher, and everything else in his profile says we should expect him to be a very good pitcher too. He dominated the 2nd best baseball league in the world, he’s smack dab in the middle of his prime, he’s coming over right as he’s peaking, he has the stuff/pitch mix to back it all up, and he has both a high floor and a high ceiling. If this were a better First Year Player Draft Class, or if this was like last year’s class, he probably wouldn’t be 1st overall (I would 100% have Roch Cholowsky ranked over him from the 2026 draft class, for instance), but in this year’s class, I don’t even really think it’s that tough of a call. He put up a 1.92 ERA with a 27.8/7.0 K%/BB% in 163.2 IP in the NPB in 2025. For reference, Yamamoto put up a 1.21 ERA with a 26.6/4.4 K%/BB% in 164 IP the year before he came over, and then his first year in the majors he had a 3.00 ERA and 28.5/6.0 K%/BB% in 90 IP, meaning, there is no guarantee Imai’s strikeout rates are going to go down in the majors. They might go up, as Imai mentioned how contact oriented the hitters in Japan are, and he’s looking forward to the challenge of facing guys who actually swing for the fences. He completely owns the mound when he’s out there with a calm, loose, athletic, and easy righty delivery that he uses to fire a mid 90’s fastball, a plus “reverse” slider, and a plus splitter/changeup (he throws both). His stuff misses bats, induces weak contact, and keeps the ball in the park (48.3% GB%). His control and strikeout rates have been improving over the last 5 years, so like I mentioned, he’s coming over at the perfect time when he’s at his peak. We have seen more than enough aces come over from the NPB and either remain an ace in MLB (Yamamoto, Yu Darvish-who also saw his K rates rise in MLB), or at the least be an impact fantasy starter (Imanaga, Senga), that the transition doesn’t seem super risky. There is risk of course with a new baseball, country, etc … but everyone in First Year Player Drafts have risk, and Imai almost definitely has the least risk of anybody. He’s only 5’11”, but Yamamoto is 5’10”, so I don’t really care too much about that either. I don’t see how you could take Doyle or Anderson over him just evaluating the top pitchers on the board, and while you can argue for a high school bat, Imai’s ceiling as a #2 starter seems plenty high enough to not feel too tempted by the bats. He’s my top dog and I’m not too torn about it. – 2026 Projection: 12/3.57/1.21/165 in 165 IP

2) Eli Willits – WSH, SS, 18.4 – Willits is the default #1 pick in 2026 First Year Player Drafts (non Imai division, who shouldn’t even be in FYPD’s, and isn’t in FYPD’s in most of my leagues). That is so unexciting to say for the first pick, but it’s exactly what Washington did in the real MLB Draft too, taking Willits 1st overall. They looked out into the rest of this draft class and just saw warts all the over place, saying, let’s just take the safest guy who checks the most boxes. Willits has one of the best hit tools in the class, he has a good SS glove, he has baseball bloodlines (you might remember Reggie Willits), he’s got speed, he’s got good size (6’1”), and he’s one of the youngest players in the class. He then cemented that safe profile in his pro debut, slashing .300/.397/.360 with 0 homers, 2 steals, and a 20.7/12.1 K%/BB% in 15 games as a 17 year old at Single-A. He had no major lift or pull issues with a 38.9% GB% and 44.7% Pull%, so when the power ticks up naturally, which his size and age say it should, the homers should come. He’s not the pick that is really going to get the juices flowing when you select him, but he’s the safe play. You can take a pitcher (Doyle/Anderson/Hernandez), but you only have to look to Roki last year to see the risk there. You can take Holliday, but we just saw that hit tool risk. You can go JoJo or Steele, but there is risk in not having seen them in pro ball. You can take Kilby, which that idea is growing on me, but it seems way too cute to take the 29th overall pick 1st overall. You can take Ethan Conrad, but … okay, no buts there, maybe you should take him 😉 … but you get the point. Willits simply checks off the most boxes, even if he doesn’t currently have that electric upside we want with the top pick. I wouldn’t blame you at all for choosing a more risky path, but Willits is my top dog, not including the Japanese veterans. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 93/18/72/.283/.358/.438/29

3) Liam Doyle – STL, LHP, 21.10 – Having an elite fastball is so important if you want to truly break into to the upper echelon of MLB pitchers. I wrote about it in the Blue Jays Team Report when I was giving my reasoning for going Burns over Yesavage (I still love Yesevage) as the #1 pitching prospect in baseball, and it’s my reasoning for giving Doyle the very slight edge over Kade Anderson in FYPD Rankings. Doyle has the type of overpowering, high strikeout, mid to upper 90’s, elite movement profile fastball that has the potential to simply bulldoze through the minors in the blink of an eye, a la Chase Burns. He’s not as good as Chase Burns, but he’s the closest thing this draft has to him. The secondaries aren’t as impressive as the fastball, which is where the edge goes to Anderson (and Anderson has an excellent fastball too despite the mediocre velocity), but I think they get undersold. The splitter dominated college hitters with elite whiff rates, the slider has above average potential with bat missing ability, and he’s working on a cutter too. His 42.6% K% led all of D1, and the 8.3 BB% shows the control isn’t in the true danger zone. I also think it says something that the Cardinals drafted him 5th overall. This isn’t the usual Cardinals type of pitcher. They lean floor over upside (although that seems to be changing of late). But quite clearly they fell in love with Doyle’s upside, which I’m also falling in love with. Kade Anderson is the safer choice and he landed in the perfect situation in Seattle, but I lean pure explosion, and Doyle has more of that explosion than Anderson has right now. St. Louis also has a pitcher’s park. Doyle is my top pitcher in FYPD’s, non Imai division, and it sure seems like he’s going to debut in 2026. – 2026 Projection: 4/3.82/1.27/75 in 70 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.33/1.07/209 in 178 IP

4) Kade Anderson – SEA, LHP, 21.10 – Anderson couldn’t have asked for a better landing spot than Seattle (3rd overall). Even after falling in love with Doyle’s explosiveness and pure nastiness, pitching in Seattle almost gives Anderson that extra upside nudge to match Doyle’s. And even if Anderson doesn’t have the pure stuff of Doyle, he beats Doyle on pitchability. He’s a 6’2”, 175 pound lefty with an above average to plus 4 pitch mix. The 93 MPH fastball misses tons of bats with a great movement profile, the plus slider is his main breaker, but he throws a plus curve too, and the changeup is a plus weapon vs. righties. He knows how to pitch, he throws the ball over the plate, and there is definitely some projection left on his frame, meaning there is a chance the fastball can sit mid 90’s at peak. It all led to a 3.18 ERA with a 37.4/7.3 K%/BB% in 119 IP in the SEC. It does seem more #2/3 than true top of the rotation at the moment, but again, Seattle give him a bump, and the fastball could tick up in the future. He’s the safer choice over Doyle, and it’s not like he doesn’t have upside himself. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 13/3.45/1.17/190 in 180 IP

5) Ethan Conrad – CHC, OF, 21.9 – If there is one guy in this FYPD class that really makes me tingle. The guy who I would hate to leave the draft without. The guy I want to say is my guy, it’s Ethan Conrad (Kilby is a close 2nd). He can so easily become the best fantasy player in this draft, and that isn’t even close to a stretch. He’s 6’3”, 220 pounds, and I’m in love with his lefty swing. It’s loose, athletic, upright, and then he absolutely unfurls on the baseball like a big cat striking it’s prey. He was in the midst of a junior year power explosion with 7 homers in 21 games in the ACC before hurting shoulder diving for a ball which required surgery to repair. But you know I’ve been loving the shoulder surgery discount with so many hitters coming back completely fine, and obviously the Cubs thought the same thing stealing him at 17th overall in the Draft. Not only is the power no joke, but he’s fast and he loves to run with 77 steals in 88 attempts in 200 amateur games. He’s also hit extremely well everywhere he’s been since his freshman year. He had a .813 OPS in 200 PA his freshman year in the MAAC, he topped that his sophomore year in the MAC with a 1.171 OPS in 259 PA, he then went to the Cape and put up a .920 OPS in 120 PA, and then he transferred into the ACC and dropped a 1.238 OPS in 21 games. He’s literally never not hit, and his contact rates have always been pretty damn good too with a 14.4% K% this year, a 15% K% in the Cape and a 12.4% K% his sophomore year in the MAAC. He’s had some chase issues throughout this career, he’s yet to really face super tough competition as he was just getting into the meat of his ACC schedule before getting hurt, and I guess there is some risk coming off the shoulder surgery, but all of that just looks like it opens up a giant buying opportunity to me. Conrad is the guy I’m really targeting in this draft. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 83/24/88/.262/.324/.461/21

6) JoJo Parker – TOR, SS, 19.8 – Selected 8th overall in the 2025 MLB Draft, Parker has the type of lefty swing that is easy to dream on. It’s easy, smooth, fast, and powerful from a strong 6’2”, 195 pound frame. It’s one of those swings that screams plus hit/power combo, and he has the production to match with excellent contact rates, plate skills, and exit velocity numbers. He’s not known as the fastest guy, but he put up some impressive run times, and he could be the type to run more than we think. In short, he’s the Walker Jenkins of this draft class. Jenkins was the Kyle Tucker of his draft class. It’s literally the Russian Nesting Dolls of FYPD prospects with each of them one inch shorter than the last one. Perfect fits. Hit, power, size, and sneaky athleticism. I get it if he’s your top dog in First Year Player Drafts, and if he debuted and hit well, he might have been mine, but he’s still a total mystery vs. pro pitching as he’s yet to debut. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 82/24/86/.274/.345/.462/16

7) Dax Kilby – NYY, SS, 19.5 – If you know me at all, you know I’m the OG pro debut breakout hype beast, going back to 2015/16, and nobody had a pro debut breakout like Kilby had. He slashed .353/.457/.441 with 0 homers, 16 steals, and a 13.6/16.0 K%/BB% in 18 games at Single-A as an 18 year old. Sure he didn’t hit a homer, but when it comes with a 91.9 MPH EV and 45.6% Hard Hit%, I’m not that concerned about it. The only flaw of the debut was the 1 degree launch, but this type of profile can still thrive with a low launch, and if he can raise that launch, watch out. I was already a big fan before the debut, ranking him highly in my original FYPD Rankings, writing, “Selected 39th overall in the 2025 MLB Draft, Kilby is a projectable 6’2” with a vicious and smooth lefty swing that has power potential written all over it if he can put on good weight. He’s currently more of a line drive, hit tool focused prospect with good speed, so either the power can tick up naturally to enhance that profile, or he can make an approach change to really tap into that hopeful raw power gain in the future. I love the swing, projection, hit tool and athleticism, which is a lot to like. If you can’t draft high enough to grab one of the top high school bats with big present power, you might as well take your shot on a guy who could develop that power down the line.” … obviously his awesome debut, where he showed more raw power than even I was expecting, is going to push his price way up, but I think he’s worth that high price. I’m all in. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 93/20/79/.278/.357/.445/30

8) Munetaka Murakami – CHW, 3B/1B, 26.2 – Murakami doesn’t just have red flags, he’s carrying around and waving the biggest red flag we’ve ever seen. It would be crazy to just ignore it or even downplay it any way. In 2025, he put up a 28.6% K% in 56 games. In 2024 he put up a 29.5% K% with a .244 BA in 143 games. In 2023 he put up a 28.1% K% with a .256 BA in 140 games. This isn’t just a blip. To say the hit tool is a risk would be an understatement, and it’s why it’s not surprising that he only landed a 2 year, $34 million deal with the White Sox. That really tells you everything you need to know about how high risk he is, but at the same time, Chicago didn’t hand him $34 million for nothing. He got that money for his possibly elite power. He hit 22 homers in just 56 games last year. He has a 56 homer season under his belt in 2022. The bat speed and Hard Hit are truly elite at 6’2”, 213 pounds. His BA can be in the low .200’s and still be an impact fantasy bat with that kind of power. And when you compare him to the FYPD kids, it’s not like all of those guys don’t have plenty of risk themselves. Chicago is the perfect landing spot for him because he is going to get full runway and leash to let it fly and see what happens. He’s not good on defense, but again, in Chicago, it really doesn’t matter for us because they are going to play him at 1B/DH until/unless the wheels completely fall off. And even then, they probably still throw him out there. If you prefer the win now bat, I can see jumping Murakami over Parker and Kilby, but the extreme hit tool concerns would have me hesitant to take him much higher than that. – 2026 Projection: 69/27/81/.222/.320/.460/6

9) Steele Hall – CIN, SS, 18.8 – Selected 9th overall in the 2025 MLB Draft, Hall’s double plus speed and athleticism is his calling card, giving him enticing fantasy upside just based on that, and there is a chance his power potential is being considerably underrated. He’s one of the youngest players in the draft, and while he’s not a huge guy at 5’11”, his righty swing is super fast, explosive, and he knows how to lift it. His power already took a big jump last off-season with tacked on muscle, and if he was able to do it once, who says he can’t keep on tacking on mass. The biggest issue is that he struggles vs. breaking balls, and generally when you go after these type of speed prospects, you want their hit tool to be a plus, rather than a risk. The upside is super fun, especially hitting in Cincinnati, and his young age gives some added legroom for both the power and breaking ball struggles. He has a chance to be a fantasy beast. – ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 86/18/74/.251/.321/.427/37

10) Ethan Holliday – COL, SS, 19.1 – The full 5 alarm, hide the women and children, blood in the streets panic mode is in full swing, and there is no putting that genie back in the bottle after Holliday put up a 39.3% K% in his 18 game pro debut at Single-A, but let me try to talk you off the ledge. We only have to look at Charlie Condon’s horrific pro debut as the example to follow for Holliday. Condon had more of a track record to fall back on, but Holliday was only 18 years old, just getting his feet wet. Like Condon, of course it removes Holliday completely from the 1st overall conversation, but I don’t think it should remove him from the Top 10 range. Even with the extreme swing and miss, he still hit the ball very hard, showing off his prodigious power potential at 6’4”, 210 pounds, and he still put up an above average 108 wRC+. It wasn’t a complete disaster. We already knew he had hit tool risk coming out of the draft, so it was stupid in my opinion for Colorado to debut him this year anyway. What did they think was going to happen? Why not give the kid an off-season to really prepare, instead of throwing him into the fire and likely getting in his head due to the struggles. We know Colorado is awful at development, but Ethan has both his father, Matt, and brother, Jackson, to fall back on and help with both the mental and physical part of the game. You know I’m the OG of putting a ton of weight on pro debuts, so I 100% hit that panic meter immediately, but there has to be a limit to the panic when the talent is still so huge, and Holliday’s talent is huge. My bet is on a much better K% in 2026. I’m going to do with him exactly what I did with Condon, which is drop him to the Top 10 range. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 84/27/88/.261/.342/.476/12

11) Luis Hernandez – SFG, SS, 17.4 – Hernandez is the consensus top player in the 2026 international class, and from everything I’ve read and watched, it seems to me that Leo De Vries is the closest “prototype” to the type of #1 overall prospect he is. He’s not getting the level of hype that Leo got, so I’m not saying he’s as good as Leo, but it’s a similar evaluation where Hernandez is just so far out ahead skills wise for his age. Scouts said Leo wouldn’t have embarrassed himself if he played in the majors at 17, and while who knows if that is true, we saw what he’s been able to do at 17-18 years old in the minors, so I don’t doubt it. Hernandez gives that same vibe with him already dominating a grown man’s league in the Venezuelan Major League, hitting .346. That video I linked shows the smooth swing and feel to hit against that advanced competition. Like Leo, Hernandez doesn’t necessarily jump off the screen in a pure size/tools sense at 5’10”, 180 pounds (Leo is 6’1”, so again, he’s not as good as Leo), but that doesn’t mean the exciting tools aren’t in here. You can see that smooth athleticism and the tight build that is only going to get stronger and stronger. The swing is fast and athletic and it’s geared for both contact and power with the ability to lift and pull. He’s not a burner, but he’s a good athlete who should steal plenty of bags. With his success against older competition already, he feels as safe as an international prospect gets, and while the upside may not be obviously off the charts, Jesus Made’s and Josuar Gonzalez’ builds aren’t far off. There is still a lot of risk with international prospects, but it feels like “we” are getting better and better at evaluating them before they turn pro. The guys at the very tippy top of the class generally become really, really good prospects, so I don’t want to be too risk averse. Hernandez deserves to be valued right with the best high school bats in the MLB Draft class, but the thing keeping him towards the back of that area is that he will play in SF. That ballpark just subdues everyone offensively, and it is slightly preventing me from going even higher than this. – ETA: 2030 Prime Projection: 88/22/76/.272/.341/.446/20

12) Seth Hernandez – PIT, RHP, 19.9 – Selected 6th overall in the 2025 MLB Draft, Hernandez has the highest pure upside of any arm in the class. He’s a great athlete with prototypical size at 6’4”, 195 pounds, and the stuff is filthy with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and a double plus changeup. The breakers (slider, curve) aren’t quite as impressive, and can be inconsistent, but they definitely have the potential to get to plus at peak. And his control/command is really strong for a high school starter with this level of stuff, generally throwing all of his pitches around the plate. I would be lying if I didn’t mention that I see at least some shades of Brock Porter, who had a very similar profile as a 19 year old starter with upper 90’s heat, an elite change, and inconsistent breakers. That also underscores how risky high school righties have traditionally been in the draft. Noble Meyer and Dylan Lesko can attest to that. Even Jackson Jobe and Andrew Painter, who have risen to elite prospect status, needed Tommy John and have had their struggles of late. But Hunter Greene exists too. There is an argument to let someone else draft Hernandez, and then buy low on him after he gets Tommy John surgery. But the top of the rotation upside is undeniable, and that upside is worth the risk. If you like going after high school arms more than I do in the 1st round of FYPD’s, I can see ranking him higher than this, but that just isn’t how I play the game really. Hernandez would have to fall for me to get him anywhere. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 14/3.45/1.13/200 in 180 IP

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

Posted on October 6, 2025November 6, 2025 by Michael Halpern

Pittsburgh Pirates 2026 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

The 2026 off-season festivities have officially kicked off on the Brick Wall with the first Dynasty Team Report of the year. Like during the regular season, I will release a freebie here on Imaginary Brick Wall on some Mondays with the vast majority of the content over on the Patreon. Off-season content will include these Dynasty Team Reports, along with Deep Positional Rankings, Strategy articles, Target articles, 2026 Projections, Prime/Peak Projections, predicting future prospect lists, AFL/Winter League Updates, the Top 100+ FYPD rankings, Top 500+ Prospects Rankings, and Top 1,000+ Dynasty Rankings. Here is the Pittsburgh Pirates 2026 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
–END OF SEASON 2025 TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
–END OF SEASON 2025 TOP 325 PROSPECTS RANKS
-TOP 60 2026 FYPD RANKS w/ Analysis & Prime Projections for every player
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: END OF SEASON MAILBAG!
–SPREADSHEETS
–OFF-SEASON CONTENT: Dynasty Team Reports (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy of the Day), Deep Positional Rankings, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Position by Position Targets, 2026 & Prime/Peak Projections, Top 1,000+ Dynasty Rankings, Top 500+ Prospects Rankings, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks + much more

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

There is nothing worse than identifying targets/sleepers early in the off-season, only to watch their value skyrocket by the time your draft comes around. You just sit and pray everyday that some popular analyst doesn’t decide to name them one of their sleepers, because if they do, forget about it, all value is lost in the blink of an eye. I’ve been playing fantasy since the late 1900’s, back when you could die of dysentery while traveling by covered wagon on the Oregon Trail (okay, not the real Oregon Trail, but that awesome The Oregon Trail video game we all used to play back then), when Yahoo brought it to the internet, and I would dread every Yahoo article that would pop up right on the league homepage, because if they named a guy who I liked a sleeper, I knew it was done. Even now as a writer, that feeling is almost tenfold, because I’m only human who can get petty sometimes, “hey, that’s my target!!!” Lay off Nick, Eno, Geoff, Grey, Chris, Eric, Ross etc … hah … I’m only half joking of course. I love all of those guys. That is where meditation comes in really handy, but that is a conversation for another day 😉 … so all of that to say, I wanted to kick off the Dynasty Team Reports with some targets who I think will remain targets all off-season. Real sleepers. Pitt is starting to become standouts in pitcher development, and while their reputation has been rising, it’s not even close to the level of Tampa or LA or Seattle. So these guys aren’t going to get the org bump that so many do. They also have a very deep rotation, which will make people hesitant about going all in on their bottom of the rotation guys because some of their roles are going to be up in the air, probably through the end of March. And none of these guys ever got huge prospect hype, so the name value is in check. So with that as the backdrop, let’s dive into the Pirates Team Report …

Pitchers

Johan Oviedo – PIT, RHP, 28.1 – I don’t foresee a bunch of analysts jumping on the Oviedo bandwagon this off-season, or at least not enough to really inflate his value out of the true “sleeper” area by the time drafts come around. He returned from Tommy John surgery after missing the entire 2024 season, and unlike so many other Tommy John returnees, not only didn’t he look diminished, he came back a new man. He added 5 inches of induced vertical break to his fastball, and it turned into a dominant pitch with an elite 31.3% whiff%. It sits 95.5 MPH and it also comes with an elite 7.4 feet of extension from his 6’6”, 275 pound frame. The dude is a beast. He combines that with two good breakers in his slider (86.7 MPH EV against with a 27.6% whiff%) and curve (38.1% whiff%), while also mixing in a sinker and changeup. He was actually better vs. lefties (.560 OPS) than righties (.724 OPS) this year, so he doesn’t have major split issues either. It all led to a 3.57 ERA with a 24.7/13.5 K%/BB% in 40.1 IP. The control is below average, the K/BB doesn’t look great, and all of the ERA estimators (SIERA, xFIP) don’t love him either, but that is what makes him a true, last couple rounds of the draft sleeper. These days, everyone is looking at the same stuff, so if you want a real sleeper, you are going to have to find different avenues, and Oviedo is that avenue. I love him as a let him come to you at the end of the draft type target. – 2026 Projection: 9/3.77/1.28/164 in 160 IP

Braxton Ashcraft – PIT, RHP, 26.6 – Ashcraft has been a target of mine for a few years now, so if you’ve read my work, you might already have him, but if you don’t, this off-season could be your last chance to get in at a decent price. He made his MLB debut and he proved his skills will most certainly transfer with a 2.71 ERA and 24.3/8.2 K%/BB% in 69.2 IP. He throws gas with a 97 MPH 4-seamer and a 96.6 MPH sinker that keeps the ball on the ground with a negative 9 degree launch. The slider is his most used pitch and it induces weak contact with a 83 MPH EV against and misses bats with a 32.4% whiff%. The curve is a bat missing weapon too with a 36.6% whiff% and a .214 xwOBA, The slider, curve and sinker were all plus Run Value Pitches. He also had no split issues with a .675 OPS vs. lefties. And the control has been plus to double plus for most of his career. If he were on the Mariners, we would be looking at him as the next in line of their big, fire balling, plus control righties, but with Pitt, he barely gets a whisper of hype. He pitched in a variety of roles in 2025, many of them short outings, so while there is some role risk, that is another reason his price should stay low all off-season. With injuries and ineffectiveness, I would be surprised if he didn’t rack up plenty of innings as a full time starter in 2026. Ashcraft and Oviedo are not going to be the darlings of the off-season hype machine fantasy world. These are guys you can truly get on the cheap. They ranked 360th and 362nd overall on the End of Season 2025 Top 450 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). – 2026 Projection: 9/3.58/1.21/150 in 150 IP

Mike Burrows – PIT, RHP, 26.5 – I don’t like Burrows quite as much as I do Oviedo and Ashcraft, but he has something neither of them do, which is a dominant changeup. His change was straight elite with a +9 Run Value, 83.6 MPH EV against, and a 43.1% whiff%. It was tied for the 6th most valuable changeup in baseball, and he did it in only 96.6 IP. Having a pitch that good should not be ignored. It’s really the only thing he does well, but he has big velocity with a 95.5 MPH fastball, and his slider isn’t too bad either with a +1 Run Value. It all led to a solid 3.94 ERA and 24.1/7.7 K%/BB% in 96 IP. Pitt is becoming one of the better pitching development teams in baseball, and while none of these guys are spring chickens, we know pitching development is all over the place. Late 20 breakouts are not that rare, and all 3 of these guys have the ingredients to take steps forward. Their rotation is deep, and it’s going to be a battle for spots, but we know that these things work themselves out. All 3 of their values should be super low too, which is where the real value comes in. I’m going to be grabbing a ton of Oviedo/Ashcraft/Burrows super late in drafts/auctions. They aren’t getting nearly the hype they deserve, and my guess is that they won’t get that hype all off-season. – 2026 Projection: 8/3.88/1.27/142 in 145 IP

Hitters

Oneil Cruz – PIT, OF, 27.6 – Cruz might have had the most disappointing 20/38 season of all time. If you told me he was going to go 20/38 before the season started, I would have said he’s going to be a huge hit, but we all know that isn’t how it played out. The BA completely tanked, sitting directly on the Mendoza line at .200, but even more worrisome is that it was getting worse as the season went along, much worse with a .184 BA in his final 104 games. And it was even more brutal vs. lefties with a .102 BA. He was sitting a ton by the end of the season, because he’s not a good defensive player either. We are in a real pickle here, because a guy who can’t hit lefties, has major BA risk, and isn’t great on defense doesn’t sound like a good bet, but at the same time, he can legitimately go 30/40, and that isn’t even a stretch to say. The 17.9% Barrel%, 95.8 MPH EV, 78.8 MPH swing, and 56.6% Hard Hit% are all off the charts. Well, they’re on the charts, but extremely high up on the charts. The 29.2 ft/sec sprint is double plus too. And the underlying numbers say he got unlucky. The .229 xBA and the .330 xwOBA were both much better than the surface stats. He has a career .233 BA. If he hits .240 next year, he has the type of talent that can win leagues, especially with how far I’m expecting him to fall this off-season. If you own him already, there is nothing to do but hold. Selling low would be silly. And while I can’t say I’m targeting him hard, I will 100% grab him if his price falls too low. This is still a Top 100 dynasty asset for me. – 2026 Projection: 76/22/74/.228/.309/.427/33

Bullpen

Dennis Santana – PIT, Closer, 30.0 – Banking on fringy closers to remain closers throughout the entire off-season is a bet that can often come back to bite you. Even with Pitt, who don’t spend big, they can still sign some lower priced vets to come in and compete. So while I can’t be certain that Santana will hold this role all off-season, he looks like the heavy favorite. He took over for Bednar after the deadline and dominated with a 1.27 ERA, 26.9/7.7 K%/BB%, and 10 saves in his final 21.1 IP. The stuff isn’t truly monstrous like many of the other top closers in the game, but it’s big enough with a 94.7 MPH fastball, and the slider is the true moneymaker with a .248 xwOBA and 35.7% whiff%. The cutter is a good pitch too. It’s not close to true elite closer status with true elite bat missing ability, which is why there is risk Pitt can bring in other arms, so he’s just a low end closer option right now. – 2026 Projection: 4/3.61/1.19/60/24 saves in 65 IP

Pittsburgh Pirates 2026 Top 10 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Prospects Rankings

1) Konnor Griffin – PIT, SS/OF, 19.11 – I felt the Griffin explosion in my gut last off-season. The Baseball Gods were speaking to me, and I listened, predicting he would explode into elite prospect status in my Predicting the Top 50 2026 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings last off-season, ranking him 4th overall and writing, “Griffin will have the explosion that everyone who passed on him in first year player drafts feared he would have. The hit tool concerns will be overblown as he maintains an under 25% K% at Single-A, and the power/speed combo will shine with 16 homers and 48 steals in 102 games. He’ll basically be the 2026 version of the 2025 version of Sebastian Walcott. Off the charts tools and a better than expected hit tool.” … and then he went out and surpassed even those expectations, slashing .333/.415/.527 with 21 homers, 65 steals, and a 21.7/8.9 K%/BB% in 122 games. He finished the season at Double-A where he actually put up his best wRC+ of any level with a 175 wRC+ in 21 games. Remember when everyone was making excuses for the 19 year old Walcott at Double-A all year for his mediocre slash? Well, Griffin came in and just busted that whole thing up, showing a 19 year old can most certainly dominate the level. Not only did I forsee the rise in the off-season, but I got blow back after ranking him 1st overall on the Prospect Rankings in early June before he even got the call to High-A. I then made a final plea in my August Dynasty Rankings before he got the call to Double-A, shooting him up to 29th overall and writing, “This is my final plea to you. DO NOT TRADE GRIFFIN UNDER ANY SCENARIO. I don’t even think Roman Anthony can touch his upside. Just don’t trade him, please.” And then after what he did at Double-A, there is no more room for debate. He’s lightning fast, he crushes the ball with a 91.2 MPH EV and 49% Hard Hit%, and the hit tool was better than expected. This is not only the #1 prospect in baseball, but he’s already a nearly elite dynasty asset for me. He ranked 1st overall on the End of Season 2025 Top 325 Dynasty Prospects Rankings (Patreon), and he ranked 23rd overall on the End of Season 2025 Top 450 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). – 2026 Projection: 28/9/35/.247/.318/.433/17 Prime Projection: 118/32/111/.279/.351/.523/44

2) Edward Florentino – PIT, OF/1B, 19.5 – I don’t see Florentino getting ranked anywhere close to elite prospect range on the mainstream Top 100’s right now. In fact, he’s towards the back of those Top 100’s, so depending on how deep your league mates like to dig, there could actually be really good value on Florentino this off-season. I know there are many leagues out there that almost exclusively use those mainstream lists to value prospects, and even in leagues that use the underground sources like myself, I still think there is value to be had. This is straight up an elite dynasty prospect, and I don’t think many people are ready to really go all in like that on him, but I am. This is a 6’4”, 200 pound beast with an athletic, powerful, and smooth lefty swing that is made to hit dingers. He jacked out 10 homers in 54 games at Single-A and 16 homers in 83 games overall. The underlying numbers back it up too with a 89 MPH EV, 26 degree launch, and 38.7% Hard Hit%. He did that as just an 18 year old, so those hard hit numbers are only going up, and the best part is that he looked like a seasoned vet with excellent plate skills, putting up a 16.3% whiff% and 22.5% Chase%. This has the makings of a truly special power bat. And wildest part of all is that he’s a really good baserunner, going 35 for 41 on the bases. He’s not a burner with poor to mediocre speed grades, so maybe the steals slow down as he climbs the ladder, but Pitt also played him in CF mostly, which tells me there is very real athleticism in here. I doubt he ends up in CF, but you don’t just throw a guy into CF for funsies. It means something that they had him out there. Don’t be lulled to sleep by the low mainstream rankings, this dude is elite and deserves to be treated like it. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 96/33/107/.268/.354/.509/16

3) Bubba Chandler – PIT, RHP, 23.6 – Triple-A is fucking hard. Like really fucking hard. The Majors is easier. That was a running joke I had in the Dynasty Rundowns all season, but it wasn’t really a joke at all. So many pitchers struggled hard at Triple-A, and then looked much better in the majors. Maybe it was the ABS Challenge system (which is coming to the Majors in 2026), maybe it was the ballparks, maybe they were pissed they weren’t in the majors already, maybe they were working on stuff, or maybe it was a combination of many things, but too many pitchers looked so much better once they got to the majors to write it off, especially their walk rates. And Chandler most certainly got the Majors is easier bump once he got there, putting up a 4.02 ERA with a 25.0/3.2 K%/BB% in 31.1 IP. He had a 5.96 ERA with a 21.2/13.1 K%/BB% in his last 51.1 IP at Triple-A before getting the call. The turnaround is just wild. The 98.9 MPH fastball got hit hard with a 93.9 MPH EV, but it was a whiff machine with a 30.8% whiff%, and that is more important to see right now. The famed changeup also dominated with a .155 xwOBA and 39.6% whiff%. And his worst pitch of the three, the slider, actually had the best Run Value of them all (+5), on the back of weak contact (85.6 MPH EV against), although it didn’t miss many bats with a 22.5% whiff%. It was a very positive MLB debut, and the bloom that was coming off the rose at Triple-A was fully put back on in the majors. He’s an elite pitching prospect, and possibly the #1 pitching prospect in baseball, although he has some competition for that crown, most notably from Chase Burns, Thomas White and Nolan McLean. – 2026 Projection: 10/3.56/1.27/178 in 170 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.29/1.10/225 in 195 IP

4) Seth Hernandez – PIT, RHP, 19.9 – Selected 6th overall in the 2025 MLB Draft, Hernandez has the highest pure upside of any arm in the class. He’s a great athlete with prototypical size at 6’4”, 195 pounds, and the stuff is filthy with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and a double plus changeup. The breakers (slider, curve) aren’t quite as impressive, and can be inconsistent, but they definitely have the potential to get to plus at peak. And his control/command is really strong for a high school starter with this level of stuff, generally throwing all of his pitches around the plate. I would be lying if I didn’t mention that I see at least some shades of Brock Porter, who had a very similar profile as a 19 year old starter with upper 90’s heat, an elite change, and inconsistent breakers. That also underscores how risky high school righties have traditionally been in the draft. Noble Meyer and Dylan Lesko can attest to that. Even Jackson Jobe and Andrew Painter, who have risen to elite prospect status, needed Tommy John and have had their struggles of late. But Hunter Greene exists too. There is an argument to let someone else draft Hernandez, and then buy low on him after he gets Tommy John surgery. But the top of the rotation upside is undeniable, and that upside is worth the risk. He ranked 8th overall on my Updated Top 60 2026 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon). – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 14/3.45/1.13/200 in 180 IP

5) Hunter Barco – PIT, LHP, 25.4 – Most people have Barco pegged as a back end arm, and I mean, they very well might end up correct. It’s probably the smart bet to make, but I think there is more in there than that, and because he doesn’t really get very much love in the prospect world (both mainstream and underground), that puts him into the pitching prospect aisle I love to shop in. For one, he has that funky lefty delivery that I am an absolute sucker for, and that deception helps his entire arsenal play up. He only had a 3 inning cup of coffee at the end of the year, but in those 3 innings he proved the stuff will translate to the majors with a 33.3% whiff% on the 94 MPH sinker, a 42.9% whiff% on the splitter, and a 33.3% whiff% on the slider. That gives him weapons to get both lefties and righties out. And we all know the low velo, plus changeup lefty was all the rage this year. Barco has that profile, and maybe even a supercharged version of it. He didn’t give up a single earned run in 25.2 IP at Double-A to start the year, and then he held his own in the Triple-A is fucking hard league with a 3.79 ERA and 25.4/13.0 K%/BB% in 73.2 IP. I mean, it’s arguably better than what Chandler did at the level. Just saying. The biggest problem is that he might be 7th on the depth chart right now, but in dynasty, it’s less of a problem. Barco is one of my favorite low cost, close to the majors pitching prospects. – 2026 Projection: 4/3.98/1.29/78 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.69/1.22/167 in 160 IP

6) Termarr Johnson – PIT, 2B, 21.10 – Johnson hasn’t had the rise we hoped for when he was the 4th overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, but it’s been far from a disaster, and that Pitt 2B job is still sitting wide open for him. Based off where they drafted him, I have to think he is going to get every chance to lock down that long term job, and not even taking draft slot into account, I still think he’s the best man for the job. The biggest issue is that the supposedly elite hit tool hasn’t even been close to elite in pro ball, but it finally started to show some signs of improvement in the 2nd half of this season. He hit .325 with a 18.3/13.3 K%/BB% in his final 42 games at Double-A as a barely turned 21 year old. That is what we were expecting from the get go, but better late than never. We obviously can’t just say he’s an elite hit tool guy again, but it gives a lot more confidence that he can fulfill the solid across the board projection I’ve been giving him for the past few years. The 119 wRC+ is also pretty damn good for his age. He hit only 9 homers with a 46.7% GB% in 119 games, and he’s also not a great base stealer, going 20 for 32, so this isn’t the upside we were hoping for at all, and I don’t think he’s a Top 100 prospect anymore, but I still believe he will be a fantasy relevant player, possibly for many years to come. – 2026 Projection: 38/6/29/.242/.306/.387/8 Prime Projection: 79/16/72/.265/.338/.423/18

7) Esmerlyn Valdez – PIT, 1B/OF, 22.6 – Pitt’s offense is atrocious. They scored the least amount of runs in the league, and while they have some good bats in the farm system, it’s not like they are stacked there either. Point being, a prospect like Valdez is in the perfect organization to bet on for fantasy. They need some big bats, and I don’t see why Pitt wouldn’t give Valdez a major chance to be one of those big bats. He obliterated High-A with 20 homers and a 176 wRC+ in 72 games as a 21 year old, and while he got off to a slow start at Double-A, he finished strong with 6 homers and a 145 wRC+ in his final 42 games. The dude can flat out mash with a powerful righty swing at 6’2” and plenty of lift and pull. There is hit tool risk with a 24.6% K%, and he doesn’t have much defensive value, but like I said, beggars can’t be choosers. Pitt needs some big bats, and I think Valdez is going to get his shot at some point, if not in 2026, then in 2027 and beyond. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 70/26/81/.243/.318/.462/4

8) Wyatt Sanford – PIT, SS, 20.4 – Sanford is the type of prospect who just slowly rises up prospect rankings with a high floor profile. He’s got a good middle infield glove, he’s got a solid feel to hit, he’s got speed and he’s got some projectability at 6’1”. This is going to be a MLB ballplayer, the only question is how good, and that will likely be dictated by how much stronger he can get. He held his own at Single-A with a 104 wRC+, 4 homers, 21 steals, and a 20.1/9.8 K%/BB% in 44 games. The 85.3 MPH EV and 30.3% Hard Hit% aren’t great, but he was only 19 years old, and like I said, there is definitely room for him to tack on more mass. Those numbers are only going up. He’s not the flashiest of prospects, but he’s probably on the underrated side right now with a high floor and not bad upside at all. I like him. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 76/14/67/.262/.323/.417/26

9) Rafael Flores – PIT, C/1B, 25.5 – Pitt targeted Flores in the David Bednar deal for a reason, and that reason is that they are desperate for close to the majors power bats, and Flores most certainly fits that bill at 6’4”, 232 pounds. He mashed 22 homers in 133 games in the upper minors. The reason I don’t have him ranked higher though, is because I was a little disappointed with the hard hit numbers once he got to Triple-A, putting up a 87.9 MPH EV and 36.4% Hard Hit% in 46 games. He’s also already 25 years old and has major hit tool risk with a 34% whiff% at Triple-A and a 41.2% K% in his small cup of coffee in the majors in 17 PA (albeit while crushing the ball with a 94.8 MPH in 8 batted balls). It’s also questionable if he can stick at catcher, making defense another area of risk. Pitt is sure to get his bat in the lineup somewhere (1B/DH/C) to see if he can be the big power bat they need, so he’s not a bad flier at all. If he stinks, you can drop him quickly, but maybe that power shows up. – 2026 Projection: 24/9/31/.226/.297/.415/2 Prime Projection: 45/16/57/.241/.318/.438/5

10) Antwone Kelly – PIT, RHP, 22.6 – As I’ve been harping on for most of this Team Report, Pitt has become a pitching development factory, and Kelly is yet another big hit for them in 2025. His velocity took a big jump this year, now sitting upper 90’s and hitting over 100 MPH, and it resulted in a 3.02 ERA with a 27.2/7.7 K%/BB% in 107.1 IP split between High-A and Double-A. He wasn’t quite as good at Double-A (23.5/8.2 K%/BB% in 48 IP), but he was reaching a career high IP, and he still put up a 3.00 ERA at the level. He’s not tall at 5’10”, but he doesn’t look small out there all all. He’s thick in the right spots, and the delivery is both explosive and pretty athletic. The secondaries aren’t as good as the fastball, but he throws a variety of them (slider, change, cutter, sinker), and hopefully there is more improvement coming down the line as he was only 21 years old this year. I’ll take a foundation of upper 90’s heat and strong upper minors production all day. He also has the fallback of being a possible future closer candidate. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 10/3.82/1.26/156 in 155 IP

11) Tony Blacno Jr. – PIT, 1B/DH, 20.10 – I remember when Blanco was a fun international prospect sleeper as a giant of a man at 6’7”, 243 pounds, but like many giant men find, getting the bat on the ball is just really hard to do at that height. And Blanco certainly struggles with that with a 35.1% K% in 30 games this season, but he doesn’t struggle hitting bombs with 7 homers and a 135 wRC+ at Single-A. It came with a 93.1 MPH EV and 53.8% Hard Hit%. He’s basically been a DH only with a few games 1B mixed in, so it’s all bat and nothing but the bat, but the dude will hit bombs at any level clearly. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 62/25/73/.220/.311/.478/0

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

Posted on September 11, 2025 by Michael Halpern

Updated Top 60 2026 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon)

Pro debuts always shake up the First Year Player Draft Rankings, and while of course there is risk to overreacting to a small sample at the end of a long season, I’ve found you end up getting a lot more right than you do wrong by reacting to pro debuts, both in a positive and negative direction. It’s where a guy like Charlie Condon goes from 1st overall, to the back of the Top 10. Where Jacob Berry gets tanked down rankings. Where Alex Freeland and Jacob Reimer become deep sleepers. Where you find out just how bad the hit tool is for high risk, high reward prospects, a la Elijah Green’s 40.4% K% in 12 games in rookie ball in 2022. Where you find out a hit tool first high school bat like Carter Johnson doesn’t actually have a good hit tool. You probably forgot he even existed. He followed up his 33.1% K% and .221 BA in 28 games at Single-A in 2024 with a 28.8% K% and .177 BA in 106 games in 2025. He was 18 year old in 2024 and thrown into the fire at Single-A, but it was still a very clear signal to avoid. You get the point. Pro debuts reveal a lot. Here is the link to my original Top 60 2026 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon) with full scouting reports, ETA’s, and Prime Projections. And of course my full Top 100+ 2026 First Year Player Draft Rankings gets released over the off-season with full analysis and Prime Projections. Until then, here is the Updated Top 60 2026 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (Top 10 free here on the Brick Wall):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
–AUGUST 2025 TOP 444 DYNASTY RANKS (End of Season Ranks coming soon)
–END OF SEASON 2025 TOP 325 PROSPECTS RANKS
-TOP 60 2026 FYPD RANKS w/ Analysis & Prime Projections for every player
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: AUGUST MAILBAG! (End of Season Mailbag coming soon)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
–SPREADSHEETS
–OFF-SEASON CONTENT: Dynasty Team Reports (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy of the Day), Deep Positional Rankings, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Top 1,000+ Dynasty Rankings, Top 500+ Prospects Rankings, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks + much more

1) Eli Willits – WSH, SS, 17.8 – It’s pretty wild to say that even the #1 overall pick is wide open in First Year Player Drafts. There are probably 11 guys that could get taken here and it would be completely reasonable. Maybe even more than that. I’ve never seen a First Year Player Draft that was more “get your guy” than this one. It also means that team needs and win timeline would legitimately come into play for me with this pick. If you already have a very strong young offensive core, and/or if your minor league system is already overstuffed with great hitting prospects who are on the verge of debuting, but you’ve neglected pitching in the rebuild (which is mostly how I build), then I would pivot to Doyle or Anderson with this pick. I hate taking pitchers first, but with no true top elite bats, it’s completely reasonable to take a pitcher first, even in a vacuum, so if your team construction also dictates you should go pitcher, 100% go for it. But if you have the 1st pick because your team was terrible, you are full tear down, and you desperately need to build up a young offensive core, I wouldn’t want to take a pitcher. I’m not holding a pitcher for 3+ years or whatever while I have no shot of competing. And like I said, building that offensive core is of the utmost importance. In that case, Willits’ debut was good enough to have real life mirror fantasy and take him #1 overall. He was only 17 years old and showed off a good feel to hit, aggressive base running, and no lift and pull issues. If he gains power as he ages, and I don’t see why he wouldn’t, this is an impact all category fantasy contributor.

2) Liam Doyle – STL, LHP, 21.3 – Doyle is my top arm, but it’s honestly a coin flip with Anderson. I’m giving the lean to the double plus, upper 90’s fastball. I also think the changeup is underrated. And while Seattle is the best place to pitch, St. Louis is a good pitcher’s park too

3) Kade Anderson – SEA, LHP, 21.2 – I fear that Anderson is more mid rotation startery than optimal for a super high FYPD pick in fantasy, but maybe that is just velocity discrimination getting in the way. He has more pitchability than Doyle, and while the heater sits more 93 MPH, it is a bat missing pitch with carry. The curve, slider and change and are all good pitches. And he’ll pitch in Seattle. Zero issue having him as your top arm.

4) Ethan Conrad – CHC, OF, 21.2 – If I had balls I would put Conrad #1 overall. Dude is 6’3”, 220, he has that upright, loose, and athletic swing that I love, he’s a great athlete with speed, he has power, and he has production. He destroyed the MAAC his Sophomore year, and then did the same in the Cape, and then did the same in the Perfect Game Collegiate League and then did the same to the ACC before hurting his shoulder. I said the same thing about Konnor Griffin last year. If you have more guts than I do, I can see taking him 1st overall. And maybe by this off-season, I will grow a pair and do it. But for now, I’m comfortable being already super high on him at #4 overall. I see him going like mid teens in recent drafts anyway

5) JoJo Parker – TOR, SS, 19.1 – Yet to debut. He’s the Walker Jenkins of this draft class. Jenkins was the Kyle Tucker of his draft class. It’s literally the Russian Nesting Dolls of FYPD prospects with each of them one inch shorter than the last one. Perfect fits. Hit, power, size, and sneaky athleticism. I get it if he’s your top dog

6) Steele Hall – CIN, SS, 18.2 – Hall had some hit tool questions surrounding his ability to hit the breaking ball, so smart of Cincinnati not to debut him. If I were an MLB organization, I also wouldn’t debut a high schooler with hit tool issues right after he gets drafted. What do you think is going to happen? He’s an 18 year old kid. Why let that get in his head over the off-season? Let him come into 2026 fresh and fully prepared. So we know the risk, but the upside is no joke with an explosive swing that I love, present power even though he’s only 5’11”, and game breaking base running. I’ll take the hit tool mystery box over the hit tool that is no longer a mystery …

7) Ethan Holliday – COL, SS, 18.7 – Colorado of course had zero tact, zero strategy, zero anything, they just threw Holliday and his known risky hit tool right into the fire to get burned. He has a 39.3% K% in 18 games and that doesn’t even include his Golden Sombrero from his last game. I’m not going full panic, but it couldn’t be more clear there is very, very, very real hit tool risk in here. And we have to trust Colorado to develop that hit tool. This is as high as I’m comfortable going on him

8) Seth Hernandez – PIT, RHP, 19.2 – Yet to debut. High school righties are a nightmare class of prospect. Just look at Noble Meyer and Dylan Lesko. Also look at Andrew Painter and Forrest Whitley. Even when it starts out well, it can turn. It is just a long, hard road. Having said that, Hunter Greene exists too. The upside is high, but so is the risk.

9) Aiva Arquette – MIA, SS, 21.11 – I would have liked nothing more than for Arquette to rip up the lower minors and establish himself as not only the top college bat, but also the #1 pick in FYPD’s, but it didn’t happen. He slashed .242/.350/.323 with 1 homer, a 47.2% GB%, and a 23.1/14.5 K%/BB% in 27 games at High-A. It’s good for a 102 wRC+. The silver lining is that he’s running with 7 steals. Part of the allure of Arquette is that there still seems to be upside in here at 6’5”, 220 with smooth athleticism and big raw power, so I’m not going to let the mediocre debut completely turn me off. But I can’t be the only one underwhelmed by this

10) Dax Kilby – NYY, SS, 18.10 – You already know I’m all in on Kilby. He is what the pro debut breakouts are all about, and he’s the #1 pro debut breakout in 2025. He slashed .353/.457/.441 with 0 homers, 16 steals, and a 13.6/16.0 K%/BB% in 18 games at Single-A. He already hits the ball extremely hard with a 91.9 MPH EV and 45.6% Hard Hit%, he has speed, and he’s 6’2”, 190 pounds. The only thing he doesn’t have is lift and pull with a 1 degree launch and 8.8% Air Pull%. I’m not even sure 10 is high enough. Is Eli Willits profile all that different? And it seems Kilby is the bigger, more fully formed version of it. I said there were 11 guys who I can reasonably see going #1 overall, and I meant it.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)