Roki Sasaki – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on January 12, 2026January 12, 2026 by Michael Halpern

Los Angeles Dodgers 2026 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

It’s time to give the back to back World Series Champions their due on the Brick Wall. Sure they “buy” their championships, but I am a Yankees fan who grew up in the 90’s, so who am I to judge? And they also might be the smartest organization in baseball and the best developmental organization in baseball, so it feels so cheap to just say they “buy” their rings. They deserve our respect. Make sure to check out the Strategy/Thoughts section below for my take on the Edward Cabrera trade and Bregman signing. The Patron is also popping off left and right with big drop after big drop, so give that a gander too. Here is the Los Angeles Dodgers 2026 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2026 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
–2026 DEEP POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 80 C–Top 91 1B–Top 97 2B–Top 101 3B–Top 161 SS
-TOP 161 2026 FIRST YEAR PLAYER DRAFT RANKS
–2026 FYPD TARGET & STRATEGY GUIDE
–END OF SEASON 2025 TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
–END OF SEASON 2025 TOP 325 PROSPECTS RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: END OF SEASON MAILBAG!
–SPREADSHEETS
–OFF-SEASON CONTENT: Dynasty Team Reports (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy of the Day), Deep Positional Rankings, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Position by Position Targets, 2026 & Prime/Peak Projections, Top 1,000+ Dynasty Rankings, Top 500+ Prospects Rankings, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks + much more

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon (free ones listed in parenthesis)

Arizona Diamondbacks—Atlanta Braves—Baltimore Orioles—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago Cubs (free)—Cincinnati Reds (free)—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Yankees (free)—Pittsburgh Pirates (free)—Sacramento Athletics—Seattle Mariners—St. Louis Cardinals (free)—Tampa Bay Rays—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

Pitchers

Roki Sasaki – LAD, RHP, 24.5 – The psychic world is fickle. It’s not like the physical world where you can be exact. It comes in glimpses, fragments, and when I went into a deep meditative state last off-season to Predict the 2026 Top 50 Prospects, I was getting visions of Roki Sasaki still being on that list. I trusted those visions and predicted, “I don’t want to believe it either, but Sasaki will feel elbow soreness in May, hit the IL, and then succumb to Tommy John surgery with an internal brace procedure after throwing 33.2 IP in the majors.” … The way it actually played out is that Sasaki did in fact hit the IL in May after throwing 34.1 IP with a shoulder impingement. He pitched just 36.1 IP on the season, which means that in fantasy leagues that use 50 IP as the threshold, he is back on prospects lists in 2026. My prediction wasn’t exact, but I mean, eerily close. I even scare myself sometimes. The part I really didn’t predict is how bad he would look. He put up a 4.46 ERA, 5.74 xERA, and a 17.4/13.7 K%/BB%. He put up a 6.10 ERA with a 20.0/13.7 K%/BB% in 20.2 IP at Triple-A. Sure he was better in the playoffs with a 0.84 ERA in 10.2 IP, but it came with a 14.0/11.6 K%/BB%. There is no way I look at that K/BB and go all is forgiven. The velocity was up in the playoffs, but that came in very short outings. There was one silver lining in the entire season, and that was that the splitter was good, not great, with a 37.2% whiff% and .253 xwOBA. He was straight up atrocious otherwise. Nothing translated from Japan. The Dodgers say they are going to put him back into the rotation in 2026 and they have a plan to fix him/teach him how to succeed in MLB, but I’m not going back in on this too hard. Just look at that K/BB in the playoffs one more time, and that was supposed to be the glimmer of hope for next year. Look at what he did at AAA. I don’t see it. It seems there is a very high chance he ends up back in the bullpen in 2026. Of course there is still upside and I can’t imagine he’s worse the 2nd time around, but he’s not a buy low for me. – 2026 Projection: 6/4.27/1.35/106 in 120 IP

Emmet Sheehan – LAD, RHP, 26.5 – Betting on Tommy John/internal brace returnees is a total roll of the dice. We have no idea which ones are going to come back fully healthy and which ones aren’t, but one thing I noticed in 2025, is that you can tell which ones are fully back extremely quickly. Conventional wisdom would say we should give guys time to shake the rust off, but that wasn’t the case at all in 2025. The guys who came back and looked great from literally their first rehab outing, were the guys who kept on looking great. And the ones who looked rusty out of the gate, more or less remained rusty all season. I still buy into the conventional wisdom somewhat, but I think it’s worth mentioning that in practice it didn’t work that way at all. And it’s a lesson I’m taking with me for 2026. Basically buy hard on a guy who dominates in their first rehab outing, and at the very least don’t buy on a guy who doesn’t look back to 100%. And I have to say, I was all over Sheehan the second he started dominating at Triple-A, calling him a major target over and over again and ranking him extremely high on the in season dynasty rankings from mid-season on. He was bordering on elite pitching prospect status before the injury, and he immediately re-established that level with a 2.18 xFIP and 45.6/2.5 K%/BB% in 19.2 IP at Triple-A in his rehab outings. It’s hard to break into LA’s rotation for a young pitcher, but LA clearly saw what I was seeing and gave them no choice. And when he did get that shot, he looked like a young ace with a 2.82 ERA and 30.6/7.6 K%/BB% in 73.1 IP (I’m trying my best to ignore the horrific post-season because I have no idea what to do with that). The 95.6 MPH fastball was a bat missing weapon with a 26.5% whiff%, the slider was straight elite with a .198 xwOBA and 43.6% whiff%, and the changeup was excellent with a .200 xwOBA and 30.2% whiff%. The control is above average and the 32.9% whiff% is in the elite of the elite for a starter. There is nothing not to like (other than the playoffs, woof). Sheehan is one of the most exciting young pitchers in the game. He ranked 78th overall on the Top 200 Sneak Peek of the 2026 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). – 2026 Projection: 12/3.37/1.14/171 in 145 IP

Hitters

Andy Pages – LAD, OF, 25.4 – I find it hard not to mention that Pages had one of the worst playoff performances I can remember with a negative 45 wRC+ and .078 BA in 55 PA. I don’t think it’s going to impact how the Dodgers view him going into 2026, but there were also signs that he got lucky in 2025 with a below average .315 xwOBA vs. .332 wOBA. He’s a contact (21.5% whiff%)/lift (16.9 degree launch)/pull guy (20.1% Air Pull%), which can routinely beat Statcast, but the 37.2% Hard Hit% makes the profile a bit precarious, and we saw how bad it can look in the playoffs. It was even cooling off in the regular season with a .696 OPS and 34.2% Hard Hit% in his final 70 games. The 4.6% BB% and 33.2% Chase% is not giving hope that his big walk rates from the minors are all of a sudden going to show up in the majors. I really thought I was going to like Pages a lot coming into this blurb, but I’m coming away more concerned than I am excited. Don’t get me wrong, he’s coming off an excellent year where he went .272/27/14, and LA showed their faith in him during the season even when he was slumping, which is big to see because they are sometimes quick to pull the plug with young players. A lot of that faith is how good he is on defense, including CF. His defensive ability is a big reason I’m staying high, and so is the fact his MLB career is just getting started, so if he can improve that hard hit, the fantasy friendly profile is here to have some huge seasons. I would just caution to have some restraint here as the red flags are here. – 2026 Projection: 72/25/83/.254/.308/.452/10

Mookie Betts – LAD, SS, 33.6 – We all know why Mookie had a down season. It’s not a mystery. He contracted a very serious stomach virus that caused him to lose 20 pounds right before the season started. That is so clearly the recipe for diminished power, and that is exactly what happened as he put up a career worst 35.8% Hard Hit%. The power outage not only impacted his homer totals (20 in 150 games), but also his batting average (.258), especially because of how much he lifts and pulls. The good news is that the hard hit numbers were already starting to come back up by the end of the season, putting up a 44.3% Hard Hit% in September. The 39.3% Hard Hit% in 17 playoff games was solid too even if he didn’t have the best post-season. He has a career 42.1% Hard Hit%. With a full off-season to regain the strength he lost, it sure seems like he should be in for a major bounce back in 2026, even at 33 years old, because the elite contact rates didn’t go anywhere with a career best 10.3% K%. He stole only 8 bags, and while it’s hard to expect huge steal totals in his mid 30’s, that should bounce back too when he gets on base as much as he usually does. I don’t see how we can consider this the start of a decline when we have a clear reason for the down season. All signs point towards a much better 2026. – 2026 Projection: 104/28/83/.279/.358/.487/14

Bullpen

Edwin Diaz – LAD, Closer, 32.0 – It doesn’t matter what coast he’s on, Diaz is a no doubt elite closer and might be the best reliever in baseball. He put up a 1.63 ERA with a 38.0/8.1 K%/BB% in 66.1 IP. The 41.5% whiff% is absurd and trails only Fernando Cruz, Mason Miller, and Brendon Little. If you are looking for undervalued, high upside relievers, you might want to take a peek at Cruz and Little. But back to Diaz, the 97.2 MPH 4-seamer and slider are both elite bat missing weapons. He has no major control issues with about average walk rates. He’s as elite as they come. – 2026 Projection: 5/2.44/0.93/101/33 saves in 65 IP

Los Angeles Dodgers 2026 Top 10 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Prospects Rankings

1) Josue De Paula – LAD, OF, 20.10 – 2026 is the season De Paula has to have the legitimate game power breakout. It’s his age 21 year old season, where so many Junior year college bats are able to make that adjustment and put up the big homer totals. If it doesn’t come for De Paula this year, I will start to get worried the odds of it ever coming will be low. I’m actually slightly disappointed it didn’t come this year with 12 homers, a 33% FB% and 40.7% Pull% in 102 games at mostly High-A. He got a 4 game cup of coffee at Double-A to close out the year, and while it’s obviously a super small sample, I’m not in love with the 83.3% GB%. So he just pounded the ball into the ground the first time he tasted advanced competition. Don’t take this blurb as me not liking De Paula, because I think I’m his biggest fan, “discovering” him when he was a legit unknown, not a word of hype DSL breakout and calling him a major buy before people caught on, so take it more as a proud father who is a bit disappointed. And I do still love him. He’s a 6’3” beast who genuinely crushes the ball with strong plate skills and base stealing ability. He put up a 142 wRC+ with a 20.2/19.0 K%/BB% and 32 steals in 98 games at High-A as a 19/20 year old. I’m most certainly in, but the reason he isn’t in the elite of the elite prospect tier is the still lacking game power, poor defense, and the fact he hasn’t proven it against advanced competition yet. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 88/24/84/.266/.348/.460/16

2) Emil Morales – LAD, SS, 19.6 – I love it when I’m evaluating the incoming international class and a prospect absolutely explodes off the screen. It happened with Lazaro Montes. It happened with Sebastian Walcott. And then it happened with Emil Morales. True athletic beasts that look undeniable even in a few swings on a Youtube video. All 3 immediately became the biggest targets for me in their international class, and all 3 exploded in pro ball. It’s just so fun hitting on one of these guys with such little information, and I can’t help it for them to become personal favorites. Montes and Walcott are obviously long past getting any value on them, but there is still value to be had on Morales, surprisingly. I went all in even more after he destroyed the DSL in 2024, ranking him 39th overall on the 2025 Top 500 Prospect Ranks last off-season when he wasn’t even getting Top 100 love, and he proved my love for him correct once again, closing out the season at Single-A as an 18 year old, slashing .339/.420/.548 with 5 homers, 5 steals, and a 23.1/11.9 K%/BB% in 30 games. That was good for a 160 wRC+. The hit tool was getting better and better as the year went on, he’s a true beast at 6’3” with lift/pull and hard hit, and he’s a legitimately good athlete. This is not just a lumbering slugger. This is a very special talent, who to my disbelief, still might not get a ton of Top 100 love. I don’t get it, but it’s better for you, because there is still time to get in before his value utterly explodes in 2026. I see a star every time I watch this kid, hit tool risk be damned. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 91/33/102/.261/.343/.515/12

3) Eduardo Quintero – LAD, OF, 20.7 – Quintero continues to be one off the very best hitters at every single level he plays at. He put up a 177 wRC+ in the DSL in 2023, a 146 wRC+ in stateside rookie in 2024, and then a 158 wRC+ at Single-A in 2025. The cherry on top is that he closed the year out at High-A as a still 19 year old and put up a 135 wRC+ in 32 games. It may sound obvious and simple, but I love a guy who just keeps on raking no matter the competition put in front of him. He finished the season slashing .293/.415/.508 with 19 homers, 47 steals, and a 22.7/16.3 K%/BB% in 113 games. They wanted him to lift/pull more this year, and he did it. Again, making adjustments and not seeing the production drop off at all is another great sign, because baseball is a game of adjustments, and you need to be able to tinker like that your entire career basically. He has a good feel to hit, he has plus power potential, he has speed and he’s a good defensive CF. That is all the boxes except upper minors production, but that is likely coming soon too. As much love as Quintero gets, he’s probably still underhyped. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 91/23/78/.263/.342/.450/31

4) Zyhir Hope – LAD, OF, 21.2- If an NFL Running Back played baseball, I imagine it would look a lot like Zyhir Hope. He’s got an NFL running back build at 5’10” with thunder thighs of pure steel, and he’s got the power/speed combo of a running back as well, crushing the ball with 13 homers and stealing 27 bags in 127 games at mostly High-A. He put up a 131 wRC+. Unfortunately, he also has the hit tool of a running back, hah, just playing, it’s not that bad, but there is definitely hit tool issues with a 26.3% K%. I’m very encouraged by his cup of coffee at Double-A to close out the season though. He put up a 20% K% in 20 PA, and while it’s too small of a sample to read into too much, it’s still a good sign. And he hit .266 on the season, so it’s not like the guy is completely incapable of hitting for average. The risk is he ends up a strong side of a platoon corner outfielder, but there is way too much upside in here to get overly scared off by the risk. He was just 20 years old last off-season, so there is time for him to refine the hit tool, and if anyone can help him, it’s the Dodgers. The Dodgers need some payoff from that Michael Busch trade (Busch for Hope and Ferris), and Hope is that payoff. The lefty Randy Arozarena is the comp. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 88/24/79/.250/.338/.455/26

5) Roki Sasaki – LAD, RHP, 24.5 – See above

6) Mike Sirota – LAD, OF, 22.9 – It was straight comical how just about everybody immediately called Sirota a major FYPD target the second he got traded to the Dodgers, including myself. I don’t even victory lap it at all because everyone single one of us saw it coming from a mile away right after the trade went down. And it’s just so stupid how ridiculously good of a season he had, slashing .333/.452/.616 with 13 homers, 5 steals, and a 21.9/17.8 K%/BB% in 59 games at Single-A and High-A. I want to reiterate that he was a 3rd round pick. Number 87 overall. He hadn’t played a single professional game, and yet every damn one of us was like, yup, he’s going to explode, and he did. I love it. The fact that he was considered a possible Top 10 picks before his junior year was also a big reason for the optimism. The talent is unquestionable here at 6’2”, 188 pounds with a plus power/speed combo. If we are going to nitpick, which is what we do, he only did this in the lower minors as an advanced college bat. Despite the plus speed, he was a bad base stealer, going 5 for 10, and while the 37.7% GB% looks good, the 34.2% Pull% is quite low. So the risk is that the hit tool ends up exposed a bit against more advanced competition, he doesn’t run a ton, and the lack of pull limits his homer totals. But the upside is a good defensive CF would hits 25 bombs with 15 steals and a solid BA. A knee injury is why his season got cut short and never got to prove it in the upper minors. He’s a Top 50-ish prospect for me, but the negatives I laid out are why I’m not going higher. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 86/24/84/.262/.339/.457/11

7) Chase Harlan – LAD, 3B, 19.9 – Harlan was one of my favorite 2025 FYPD Targets, writing in his Target blurb, “Harlan gives me shades of Austin Riley,” and after his excellent pro debut, those shades are even more obvious. He’s 6’3”, 205 pounds with an absolutely beastly righty swing. Just look at this thing. That is the type of swing you watch and your jaw just drops. It stands out. And he uses that swing to truly crush the ball. He slashed .269/.357/.442 with 9 homers, 3 steals, and a 22.3/12.0 K%/BB% in 68 games split between rookie ball (121 wRC+) and Single-A (103 wRC+). There is definitely hit tool risk, and that popped up at Single-A with a .240 BA and 26% K%. He was young for his class, but he turned 19 by the time he got to Single-A, so I hesitate to give him too large of an age to level bump. Still, he will only be 19 years old for the first half of the 2026 season, so there is time to improve that hit tool. And if he can, we are taking about true top level power upside, a la Austin Riley. I love him last off-season and I love him even more now. He’s a target, again. – 2026 Projection: 79/28/91/.244/.326/.472/6

8) Alex Freeland – LAD, 3B/2B, 24.7 – Freeland’s hit tool risk got exposed immediately in the majors with a .190 BA and a 36.1% K% in 97 PA. The 30.5% whiff% isn’t nearly as scary, and the 21.9% K% and 23.7% whiff% at Triple-A was considerably better, so I’m expecting a much better showing in his 2nd go around, but it’s very clearly a real risk. His next biggest problem is that he’s on the Dodgers and they don’t seem like they are just going to unleash him in the starting lineup. He’s going to have to compete and he’s going to have to earn it every step of the way. His good infield glove will help though, and if he can make his way on the field, the power/speed is in here to make a fantasy impact. He ripped the ball at Triple-A with a 47.6% Hard Hit%, and the 90.7 MPH EV in the majors is not too shabby. He can hit it damn hard, he can lift and pull, he’s got an excellent approach with a 19.3% Chase%, and he’s got speed with two 31 steal seasons under his belt in the minors. The 26.2 ft/sec sprint was oddly low in the majors, so I’m thinking it was just a small sample, but he also wasn’t exactly a demon on the bases at AAA this year (18 for 24), so we should probably keep the stolen bases expectations in a more moderate range. Considering both the hit tool and playing time risk, it’s hard to bet on him too hard, but the Dodgers are also super old in their infield. 2B is wide open. I wouldn’t fade him too hard either. – 2026 Projection: 38/9/31/.233/.308/.406/7 Prime Projection: 77/22/73/.248/.330/.436/16

9) River Ryan – LAD, RHP, 27.8 – Ryan underwent Tommy John surgery in August 2024 which wiped out his entire 2025 season. He was breaking out on the MLB level before going down with the injury with a 1.33 ERA and 22.2/11.1 K%/BB% in 20.1 IP. He had the big stuff to back it up with a 96.3 MPH fastball, a diverse pitch mix, and bat missing secondaries. But like so many Dodgers pitchers in this category, who knows when he will be able to claw his way back into the rotation, and how much they are going to ease/baby him back in. He’s good enough to not ignore, but he’s not so good where I would say he’s the type I’m actively targeting. If he’s a guy you have on the bottom of your roster, that works. – 2026 Projection: 3/4.18/1.32/71 in 75 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.91/1.29/150 in 150 IP

10) Charles Davalan – LAD, OF, 22.4 – Davalan is only 5’9” and he’s not a huge tools guy as a maxed out college bat, but you know if the Dodgers took him 41st overall, there is something to like, and as a little man discount connoisseur myself, I wouldn’t let his size fool you. For one, he packs a real punch with the bat, jacking out 14 homers in 65 games in the SEC. This isn’t just some Punch and Judy hitter. Davalan can hit the ball hard even if power isn’t going to be the main part of his game. The main part of his game is the hit tool with an 8.5/11.0 K%/BB%, speed (10 steals), and defensive versality (he can play 2B and all 3 OF positions). The pro debut got me even more excited for him, slashing .500/.541/.735 with 1 homer, 3 steals, and a 13.5/8.1 K%/BB% in 8 games at Single-A. Maybe he tops out as a cheap 400-500 AB utility type for the Dodgers, which might be the most likely outcome, but he’s also the type who can just keep hitting his way into more and more playing time. He ranked 36th overall on the Top 161 2026 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon). – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 78/16/71/.273/.331/.418/21

11) James Tibbs III – LAD, OF, 23.6 – This guy gets tossed around like a hot potato. I was going to try to update the “hot potato” expression, but I just made potatoes yesterday, and fuck are those things hot as hell. The expression stays. He’s projected to be more of a solid than standout bat, so once he got out of San Francisco, I definitely liked him more, but ending up in LA is a double edged sword. He’s very likely to end up blocked, but he needed a good developmental organization based on his pro debut, and LA immediately unlocked his potential at Double-A, slashing .269/.407/.493 with 7 homers, 5 steals, and a 21.4/17.3 K%/BB% in 36 games. He ended the season with 20 homers and 10 steals with a 21.4/16.0 K%/BB% in 123 games, which isn’t bad. Tibbs was a FYPD fade for me last year after getting picked 13th overall, writing, “The only scenario I would honestly see myself drafting him is in like a 30 team league, or if he falls so far I simply don’t have a choice (and even then I might keep on passing). Maybe this ranking is too low, but he’s just not my guy.” … So he’s still not my favorite prospect without big tools, but his draft pedigree and solid season deserve to sneak on the back of this list. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 76/18/72/.253/.327/.423/8

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Marlins trade Edward Cabrera to the Cubs for Owen Caissie, Cristian Hernandez, and Eduardo De Leon

I really don’t think Miami knows what they are doing. They don’t seem to get it. Last year in the 19 Dynasty Baseball Strategies/Thoughts for 2025 I lambasted their deal for Jesus Luzardo, writing, “Man, I wish I had the Marlins in my dynasty leagues, giving up nearly elite upside starters (Jesus Luzardo) for light hitting speedsters (Caba and Body). I thought Caba was getting a bit overrated (certainly for fantasy), and obviously Philly didn’t view him as untouchable either. If you can pull the same sell high move for Caba that Philly just did, I would jump on it. As all dynasty owners know too well, I bet you there is another team out there going, “they sold Luzardo for that? My offer was 3 times better than that!!” … and while I’ll start by saying I like this deal a lot more than that deal (Cabrera is not as valuable as Luzardo and Caissie is a prospect I actually like who can make an impact), I only like it a lot more because of how horrible the other deal was. Cabrera is a very legitimate high upside, high octane arm who was finally putting it together and has 3 more years of team control. An arm like this is crazy valuable, even with the injury risk as all these pitchers have injury risk. A smart team would realize it would take a knock me over haul to trade an arm like this, and Owen Caissie with two spare parts is not a knock me over haul. I like Caissie a lot for fantasy, but even in fantasy, I would have never made this deal. Caissie has never put up a strikeout rate lower than 27.9% in the minors. In his cup of coffee in this majors he put up a 40% K% and 39.7% whiff% in 27 PA. Small sample for sure, but I mean, it shows that extreme risk in bright red colors. He doesn’t hit lefties well and he doesn’t have much defensive value. A power hitting, corner platoon outfielder with extreme hit tool risk is not the type of piece that should land you 3 years of a guy who could be a near ace or #2. It’s not like it’s impossible for this one to work out better for the Marlins, because again, I like this deal much better than the Luzardo deal. Cabrera could get hurt and Caissie could hit 30 bombs. I get that, but even if that is the outcome, I don’t believe the Marlins properly understand value. Look at that Rays deal for Baz as a counterpoint. They swept up with 5 value pieces and got a centerpiece in Forret as well. That is how a smart team does it. Miami doesn’t get it.

As for fantasy, everyone wins here. Caissie gets a clearer path, Cabrera gets a better team, White and Snelling have one less arm in front of them, and Alcantara and Long have one less bat in front of them. Great trade all around as far as fantasy is concerned. And again, I don’t dislike Caissie. He’s a really good power hitting prospects who is an easy Top 100 Prospect. It’s just not the guy you trade a potential cheap ace or potential #2 for 3 years for in real life. Major hit tool risk, big power corner outfielders should not cost that much in real life.

Cubs sign Alex Bregman for 5 years, $175 million

Straight disaster for Matt Shaw. The Cubs have been threatening to trade Hoerner for a while, so hopefully they do that (or trade Shaw), but they could just keep Shaw as depth with the intention of him taking over for Hoerner in 2027. It’s the same situation that Jasson Dominguez is probably about to be in when the Yanks sign Bellinger. Two guys who I think are long term starters and I still love, but what the hell am I supposed to do with them in limbo for 2026. I’m stressing over it hah, but this is dynasty, and if you believe in a player, you should stick with them even through playing time uncertainty. I stuck with Ben Rice last year, and it paid off in a major way. I’m holding strong on my value on both Shaw and Dominguez long term, but short term, yea, it kinda sucks.

As for Bregman, it is a definite ballpark downgrade from Boston and Houston, and considering his fantasy value was already boring, it’s not exactly great. But make no mistake, this is not an Isaac Paredes situation at all. Paredes has a career 30.6% Hard Hit%. He desperately needs a good ballpark for his profile. Bregman has a career 38.5% Hard Hit% and actually raised it to a career high 44.4% in 2025. This is not a Paredes situation by any stretch. They are not the same. Bregman is going to be just fine, and if he can actually maintain that increased Hard Hit, he might be more than fine. I really don’t think this changes his ranking all that much even though it is a ballpark downgrade.

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon (free ones listed in parenthesis)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

Posted on March 30, 2025March 30, 2025 by Michael Halpern

Sunday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (3/30/25)

I usually do these Rundowns on the Brick Wall on Monday, but sometimes I feel it on Sunday, and this is one of those times. The rest of the week you can find these Rundowns on the Patreon. I do them all season. Here is the Sunday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (3/30/25):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-DYNASTY RUNDOWNS AND MONTHLY DYNASTY & PROSPECTS RANKINGS UPDATES ALL SEASON
-TOP 1,000 2025 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-TOP 500 2025 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECT RANKS
-TOP 146 2025 FYPD RANKS
-2025 FYPD Target & Strategy Guide
-POSITION BY POSITION TARGETS
-OBP TOP 400 2025 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2026 PROSPECTS RANKS
–ALL IN ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET
–TOP 10 2026 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST

Kristian Campbell – BOS, 2B/OF, 22.3 – And this is why I fought every urge in my body to not overreact to spring. I felt the pull too. The questions were coming left and right. And my answer remained the same. I’m not going to rejuggle my entire rankings based on who was having the best spring. The Sox weren’t fazed by the bad spring either, putting Campbell on the Opening Day roster. And it didn’t take long for our patience to pay off. Campbell had his coming out party yesterday. utterly obliterating his first MLB homer at 112.2 MPH with an 80.4 MPH swing. He tacked on a 106.3 MPH double too, finishing the day 2 for 3 with a walk. He currently has a 75.3 MPH bat speed on 16 swings, which would put him into the elite range. He’s the real deal.

Matt Shaw – CHC, 3B/2B/SS, 23.4/Gage Workman – CHC, SS/3B, 25.5 – Workman stole a start at 3B after Shaw’s slow start to the season hah, which was my concern, but he went 0 for 2 with 2 K’s, and then Shaw replaced him and leg kicked his way into his first big league homer with a 76.6 MPH swing. That leg kick though. My goodness. I mean, I love me the little men leg kick, but maybe a little too much man ha. Either way, what a fun weekend of baseball so far.

Jesus Luzardo – PHI, LHP, 27.6 – The first weekend of baseball has been nothing short of a Brick Wall Target Festival. Luzardo was my #1 bounce back target call, and boy did he bounce back in his first start, going 5 IP with 5 hits, 2 ER, and a 11/2 K/BB vs. WAS. The fastball velocity is all the way back up to a fully healthy 96.9 MPH, and the slider and sweeper were absolutely devastating with a 78% and 71% whiff% respectively. The changeup dominated too with a 33% whiff% and 85.7 MPH EV. Everything straight dominated. Also off to a damn good start on that long shot bet lead the league in strikeouts. We’re off and running baby …

Jordan Westburg – BAL, 2B/3B, 26.1 – Even targets from Christmas Past are working double time. Westburg wasn’t done after the 2024 breakout, he’s coming for the next level 2025 breakout now, cranking two homers at 109.7 MPH off Max Scherzer and 105.7 MPH off Chad Green. That’s 3 homers in 3 games. Everything’s coming up Brick on Opening Weekend. What’s next, you’re going to tell me this is the year Zac Veen breaks out too?

Jose Soriano – LAA, RHP, 26.6 – Don’t kill the messenger! I don’t want to victory lap this much after 3 games either! hah … what am I supposed to do though? Target Soriano opened his season with a shutout, going 7 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 5/2 K/BB vs. CHW. Granted, I could probably shutout the White Sox, but still. The sinker sat 96.6 MPH and while he didn’t get a ton of whiffs with a 16% whiff% overall, he was a weak contact machine with a 83.7 MPH EV against. Again, was he really a weak contact machine, or were the White Sox hitters a weak contact machine? I’m not victory lapping this. This feels more like the White Sox than anything Soriano did. Montgomery and Teel (who homered for the 2nd straight game yesterday at Triple-A) can’t get here fast enough.

Bo Bichette – TOR, SS, 27.1 – We need a Target palate cleanser. Non Target Bichette is showing signs the big spring was legit after going 4 for 4 yesterday with a 110.5 MPH double 104.7 MPH double, 102.4 MPH single and 86.6 MPH single. But the most important thing is that the bat speed is up in the early going with an above average 72.1 MPH swing speed on 22 swings. It sat a 70.1 in 2023 and 70.4 in 2024. All signs point to a legit bounce for Bichette.

Victor Scott – STL, OF, 24.2 – Non Target Victor Scott went 2 for 4 with 2 steals. Nice to see him get on the board after his hot spring too. He has potential to lead the majors in steals.

Ryan Bliss – SEA, 2B/SS, 25.4/Otto Lopez – MIA, 2B, 26.4 – – But Scott isn’t the only contender off and running, Target (! ha) Bliss got on his horse again too for his 2nd steal of the season, finishing the day 1 for 4. And Target Otto might be gunning for a full blown breakout at this point. He nabbed his first bag of the season after homering on Friday. But more impressively, he clocked in with another big day at the dish, going 3 for 5, highlighted by a 109.9 MPH single. That’s a new career high.

New York Yankees Bats – Like, literally the bats. One of the most interesting stories of the early season is the MIT physicist who reshaped the Yankees bats to put more wood in the barrel. And after hitting 9 homers yesterday as a team, the story is blowing up. Seems wild that it took 150 years for somebody to figure this out. I mean, I just assumed this would have been tried before. Or that it was illegal. But I guess not. At least not yet. This is just fun to follow. Would have been nice if Dominguez got one too though. He had no homers. Did he not get the bat?

Nick Kurtz – OAK, 1B, 22.1 – Cam Smith damn near sucked the hype away from every other FYPD player after his insane spring. But Kurtz is now out to put some respect back on his name at Triple-A after decimating his first spring homer at 108.8 MPH. He’s now 4 for 9 with 0 K’s, 2 BB, 2 doubles, and a homer. I would say he’s ready.

Spencer Arrighetti – HOU, RHP, 25.2 – 6 IP, 1 hit, 1 ER, 5/2 K/BB vs. NYM. The fastball sat 94.3 MPH and put up a 21% whiff%. But it was the secondaries that really impressed with the curve, cutter, sweeper and changeup putting up a 50%, 44%, 60% and 33% whiff% respectively. It led to an elite 35% whiff%. This is exactly what we wanted to see out of Arrighetti. He’s about to go full breakout in 2025.

Zack Littell – TBR, RHP, 29.6 – The Rodney Dangerfield of pitchers, Littell just can’t get no respect no matter how well he pitches. Coming off a strong 2024, absolutely nobody cared about him again in 2025, but he made them notice yesterday, going 6 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 7/1 K/BB. Granted it came against road Rockies, but still. The splitter absolutely dominated with 6 of 12 whiffs, and the heavily used slider was awesome too with a 86.7 MPH EV against and 28% whiff%. He’s not flashy, but he gets the job done, and he’s not going anywhere. Just a really solid pitcher.

Walker Buehler – BOS, RHP, 30.8 – Buehler was one of my top pitcher fades this off-season, not buying into the name value, and his first outing doesn’t make me like him any more than I did, going 4.1 IP with 7 hits, 4 ER, and a 3/0 K/BB vs. TEX. The velocity is all the way down to 93 MPH on the fastball, and while the sweeper, changeup and curve missed bats, it still resulted in a below average 21% whiff% overall. I closed out his Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “His stuff really isn’t all that standout anymore, and is arguably below average. He’s an aging, banged up pitcher with decent stuff and continually declining whiff rates. I’m out at his current price.” It was just more of the same yesterday.

Matt McLain – CIN, 2B/SS, 25.8 – Little Matty McLain got himself a repaired shoulder, and it looked just fine yesterday, blasting off for his first homer off Justin Verlander at 99.8 MPH. Not exactly a statement shot, but it would have been a homer in 29 of 30 ballparks, so it’s not just a Cincy cheapie. He currently has a 98.5 MPH EV in 6 batted balls. I would say he’s healthy.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand – CIN, 1B, 25.4 – Speaking of healthy Reds, Strand is so back, getting ahold of his first homer of the season as well with a 103.5 MPH shot. He also tacked on a 102.7 MPH single. The bat speed is up to 74.4 MPH on the season, which is double plus range. I was lukewarm on him this off-season, and that was clearly a mistake. Thankfully I still have him on a rookie contract in my 12 team league back when I did believe in him. Dynasty is weird like that. So I’ll take it ha.

Keibert Ruiz – WAS, C, 26.8 – It sure feels like Ruiz is about the have his breakout season. He lifted off again for his 2nd homer of the season on a 101.6 MPH shot off Jesus Luzardo. The 67.4 MPH bat speed is still slow, giving me some pause on how real it is, but at the least, a bounce back season is in order after a down 2024. And he has an 18 homer season under his belt already in 2023.

Maikel Garcia – KCR, 3B/2B, 25.1 – Talk about Ghosts of Target past. I’m not going to fall for this one again. Garcia is off to another hot start after cracking his first homer of the year at 103.8 MPH. He also tacked on a 107.3 MPH single. Those were the two hardest hit balls of the day. I thought the breakout was coming last year after his hot start, but it wasn’t to be, so forgive me for waiting a bit longer on this one this year. I still like the profile a lot (speed, hard hit, contact), but he still has a negative 12.2 degree launch, and he needs to raise that launch for a true sustained homer breakout.

Spencer Schwellenbach – ATL, RHP, 24.10 – Last year in these here Dynasty Rundowns I was pumping Schwellenbach as a 5 alarm target when his ERA was over 5. This year, I’m not sure there is much left to say other than he is an ace, and he went out and kept proving it yesterday, going 6 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 4/1 K/BB vs. SDP. The fastball sat 96.5 MPH, and he went to his excellent splitter even more than last year, making it his most used pitch with a 30% whiff%. He used a 6 pitch mix to notch an above average 26% whiff% and 87.2 MPH EV against. Last year was the time to pounce. It’s too late now.

Gavin Williams – CLE, RHP, 25.8 – 5 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 2/1 K/BB vs. KCR … solid outing. The fastball sat 97.5 MPH, which is good. But it only resulted in a 17% whiff% overall. We’re going to need to see much better than that before thinking a true explosion is coming.

Griffin Canning – NYM, RHP, 28.11 – 5.2 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 4/2 K/BB vs. HOU. The fastball sat 93.7 MPH and got zero whiffs. The heavily used slider got hit hard with a 91.5 MPH EV and didn’t miss a ton of bats (25% whiff%). The change also got hit hard with a 91.1 MPH EV. It resulted in a 91.1 MPH EV against with a 24% whiff%. All together, you have to say it was a solid outing, but I’m still treading carefully here.

Jeremy Pena – HOU, SS, 27.6 – Pena is coming for those power gains after he jacked out his 1st homer of the year with a literal laser beam at 106.7 MPH off Griffin Canning. His launch is up to 20.8 degrees in the early going. Still early, but that is a big jump from 7.5 degrees. If he can even maintain some of that, it won’t be hard to take advantage of those Crawford boxes.

Kameron Misner – TBR, OF, 27.3 – Last off-season, I named Misner a deep league target as the next Luke Raley-like Rays late career breakout. He didn’t make my Top 1,000 this year because I just didn’t see the path to playing time, but with Lowe out, he has one now, and he’s taking advantage. He homered on Friday as a pinch hitter, and then he got the start yesterday and went 2 for 4 with a 103.7 MPH single and 99 MPH single. This a 6’4”, 218 pound uber athlete who jacked 17 homers with 30 steals at Triple-A in 2024. This is the exact type of late career breakout that the Rays love. Like Raley, it’s going to come with a lot of strikeouts and a likely platoon role, but he’s really interesting to me. You know I love my huge human beings who are also great athletes.

Junior Caminero – TBR, 3B, 21.9 – 84.8 MPH. 83.3 MPH. 81.5 MPH. 81.2 MPH. Those were the 4 fastest swings of the game. This guy just swings different. It resulted in a 3 for 5 day. He’s just impressive.

Oneil Cruz – PIT, OF/SS, 26.6 – 4 walks and another 2 for 2 day on the bases, giving him 1 homer and 4 steals in 3 games. Oh no, what is this man about to do this year

Roki Sasaki – LAD, RHP, 23.5 – Oh boy. Sasaki deserves to have the Bottom of the Rundown all to himself. He got blown up, going 1.2 IP with 3 hits, 2 ER, and a 2/4 K/BB vs. DET. The fastball was down 1 MPH from his first shaky outing in Japan at 96.1 MPH, and that’s way down from where he was sitting in his prime. The splitter and slider still missed a ton of bats, which is definitely good news (50% and 40%, respectively), but what the hell happened to his control? This man had a career 5.6% BB% in Japan. I don’t think I want to answer that question. It’s the answer I didn’t want to give when I predicted Sasaki would be back on the 2026 Top 50 Prospects Rankings. Let’s just hope it’s nerves/jitters/adjustment period. That’s all we can do.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

Posted on January 7, 2025 by Michael Halpern

Top 146 2025 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon)

I’m pumped to be getting into the true meat of the off-season, and we kick things off with the Top 146 2025 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings! The top 12 are free down below on the Brick Wall. Full analysis, Prime Projections, and ETA’s for every player. The FYPD Target and Strategy Guide is coming tomorrow on the Patreon, and then I will close out the week with another installment of the Sneak Peek of the Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings Series. And we are just getting started with sooooooo much more coming. But first, here is the Top 146 2025 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 135 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2025 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-2025 DEEP DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 Catchers–Top 83 1B–Top 98 2B–Top 109 3B–Top 154 SS
-TOP 146 2025 FYPD RANKS (+FYPD Target & Strategy Guide)
-END OF SEASON 2024 TOP 322 PROSPECTS RANKS
-END OF SEASON 2024 TOP 438 DYNASTY RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: END OF SEASON MAILBAG!
-SPREADSHEETS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT! – Dynasty Team Reports, Deep Positional Rankings, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Fall/Winter League Updates, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks, Top 500+ Prospects Ranks, Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks & so much more!

Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon (free ones listed in parenthesis)

Atlanta Braves—Baltimore Orioles—Boston Red Sox (free)—Cincinnati Reds–Chicago Cubs (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Detroit Tigers—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers (free)—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—Philadelphia Phillies—Pittsburgh Pirates—San Diego Padres—Tampa Bay Rays—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals (free)

1) Roki Sasaki – FRA, RHP, 23.5 – Sasaki and his people pulled whatever back room deals that needed to be pulled and got him coming stateside this season, which is insanely exciting, because there is little doubt that he will be a true ace right from the get go, and possibly the best pitcher in all the land. He’s better than Yamamoto, and you saw Yamamoto’s seamless transition, other than the shoulder injury. Sasaki’s fastball sits in the upper 90’s and regularly hits over 100 MPH. The splitter is truly elite and the slider is plus. He has prototypical size at a projectable and athletic 6’2”, 187 pounds, and he has plus control/command of his stuff. He’s been so insanely dominant in Japan that he has basically already hit legend status with so many crazy feats, and he’s only 23 years old. He put up a 2.35 ERA with a 28.7/7.1 K%/BB% in 111 IP this year. He was even better in 2023 with a 1.78 ERA and 39.1%/4.9% K%/BB% in 91 IP. As you can see, the biggest and only red flag is injuries, as he has a career high of 129.1 IP. He battled an oblique injury in 2023 and right arm discomfort in 2024. The right arm discomfort is particularly concerning because his stuff was actually down a tick or two this year. It was still beastly, but would any of us be surprised if Tommy John/internal brace surgery was right around the corner? You can’t be too scared off by that, because even if he needs it, he should still return as an ace. He’s so easily the top pick in First Year Player Drafts, and he has a very real argument to be the top dynasty pitcher in the game. – 2025 Projection: 12/3.06/1.04/175 in 150 IP Prime Projection: 16/2.72/0.92/240 in 185 IP

2) Travis Bazzana – CLE, 2B, 22.7 – Selected 1st overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Bazzana looks like a tightly wound ball of kinetic energy that is just ready to explode in the box (I think ball of “Potential” energy is actually the correct scientific term, but I felt like “Kinetic” just hit harder 🙂 … There is toe tapping and bat wiggling before he absolutely uncoils on the baseball, jacking 28 homers in 60 games in the Pac 12 this year, and also smoking 6 homers with a 1.037 OPS in the wood bat cape cod league in 2023. He’s “only” 6 feet tall, but there is easy plus power in here at the least. He combines the plus power with a near elite plate approach/hit tool (12.5%/25.7% K%/BB%), and speed (16 steals). He didn’t standout in his pro debut, but he did enough to feel confident about him fulfilling his upside with 3 homers, 5 steals, a 126 wRC+ and 25.4/13.9 K%/BB% in 27 games at High-A. He’s the total offensive package, and there is a reason he got taken #1 overall by a very smart franchise despite limited defensive value. The only thing that can stop him seems to be his parents. His parents almost ended his career before it started when celebrating. His dad tried to rip his arm out of his socket, and then his mom put him in some kind of neck hold into a tripping maneuver. Travis almost looked like he was about to square up with his mom for a second there. I guess they do things differently Down Under in Australia. – 2025 Projection: 31/7/31/.247/.319/.420/8 Prime Projection: 91/24/79/.271/.349/.455/25

3) JJ Wetherholt – STL, 2B, 22.7 – Selected 7th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Wetherholt might not have quite the ceiling of Bazzana, but even that is highly debatable, and he’s establishing that he most probably has the floor edge with a 11.9% K% at Single-A vs. Bazzana’s 25.4% K% at High-A. Different levels, but that is a pretty stark difference. He hit the ball on the ground a lot more than Bazzana, which is where some of that upside edge comes in, but he did it with a 91.9 MPH EV, so don’t cap his power upside too much. He’s two inches smaller than Bazzana at 5’10”, but he rocks that little man leg kick that I’ve always loved, and always seems to get the most out of smaller guys raw power. He slid in the draft a bit after getting a lot of #1 overall buzz, likely due to missing about half of the season with a hamstring injury and still not being fully healthy when he returned. It was his 2nd major hamstring injury within the year. His 16 homer pace was also not that impressive when everyone else was hitting like 30+. What he does better than maybe anyone else in the draft though is hit. He put up a 10.4%/18.3% K%/BB% in 2024 and had a 8.2% K% in 2023. He’s a complete hitter who uses the entire field with a quick and simple lefty swing. Tack on plus speed (57 steals in 145 career games), and you have a damn enticing fantasy player even if his power upside doesn’t quite match some of the other bats in the class. I have Bazzana ranked over him, but I don’t think it’s some no brainer decision. JJ is right there. – 2025 Projection: 18/3/16/.259/.321/.401/5 Prime Projection: 96/19/73/.287/.353/.438/23

4) Chase Burns – CIN, RHP, 22.3 – Selected 2nd overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, dynasty managers owe a huge debt of gratitude to Cincinnati for going Burns over Condon. It would have made me legitimately sad to see Burns going to the Rockies. I know Cincinnati is no cake walk for pitchers themselves, but they just have a small ballpark, they don’t have different air. And we’ve seen plenty of pitchers have excellent seasons in Cincy (Castillo, Gray, Greene, Lodolo), so I wouldn’t let this landing spot move you off Burns at all. He has legit ace upside at a strong 6’3”, 210 pounds with a double plus fastball that sits in the upper 90’s and a double plus slider that put up elite whiff rates. It led to a 2.70 ERA with a ridiculous 48.8%/7.7% K%/BB% in 100 IP in the ACC. He’s inevitably going to get compared to Skenes, and Skenes put up a 1.69 ERA with a 45.2%/4.3% K%/BB% in 122.2 IP in the SEC. Skenes was in the tougher conference (although Burns pitched well in the SEC in 2022-23 before transferring to the ACC) with a better ERA, better walk rate and more IP. Burns isn’t as good as Skenes, but not many pitchers are better than Skenes, so that isn’t much of a knock. Burns also throws a curve and changeup to give him a legit starters pitch mix, and how well he can develop those pitches could dictate whether he becomes a true ace or a high K, #2/3 type. If your dynasty team is stacked with hitting, I don’t think taking Burns #1 overall should be ruled out. The teams that took Skenes over Langford and Crews in 2024 aren’t complaining too much right now, and while I already noted that Burns isn’t Skenes, the college hitting class also aren’t Langford/Crews. – 2025 Projection: 4/3.73/1.20/87 in 75 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.23/1.08/237 in 190 IP

5) Christian Moore – LAA, 2B, 22.5 – Selected 8th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, the Angels don’t fuck around when it comes to promoting advanced college hitters to the majors, so you know Moore is going to be a contributor on your fantasy team real quick, possibly as soon as Opening Day. Shit, he almost made his MLB debut in 2024 with his absolute destruction of pro ball, slashing .322/.378/.533 with 5 homers, 2 steals, and a 29.6/8.2 K%/BB% in 23 games at Double-A. A knee injury (meniscus) is likely the only thing that stopped that from happening, but he returned to Double-A before the season ended and went 3 for 4 with a double and 4 RBI, so I wouldn’t be worried about the knee. I fell in love with his personality during his Draft Day interview. It was the perfect mix of confident, cocky, thoughtful, playful and mature. That just seems like the type of infectious attitude I want on my team. He wasn’t kidding when he said he had Champion in his blood. And of course, he was an absolute beast in the SEC, smashing 34 homers with a 1.248 OPS and 14.5%/11.3% K%/BB% in 72 games. He has a very strong righty swing at 6’1”, 210 pounds, producing at least plus power with average speed on the bases. In his freshman year in 2022, he put up a 1.062 OPS with 10 homers in 149 PA to give you an idea of the type of natural talent this is. As you saw with his K rate at Double-A, there are definitely some hit tool issues, which I’m not ignoring, but I’m also not letting it scare me off. I was high on Moore before his pro debut, and now I am over the moon for him. – 2025 Projection: 70/23/77/.242/.310/.437/8 Prime Projection: 83/28/91/.260/.331/.472/11

6) Nick Kurtz – OAK, 1B, 22.1 – Selected 4th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Kurtz had one of the best pro debuts in his draft class with 4 homers in 7 games at Single-A, and a 129 wRC+ with a 20.0/13.3 K%/BB% in 5 games at Double-A. It was a just a continuation of the 3 years of dominance in the ACC. He’s a large man at 6’5”, 240 pounds in the mold of a Jim Thome, country strong type. But he’s not just brute strength, he has electric bat speed that led to 61 homers in 164 career games in college. He combines the at least plus power with an extremely patient plate approach and good feel to hit (16.2%/30% K%/BB%). He also has some sneaky athleticism, evidenced by a perfect 11 for 11 on the bases in his college career. The ceiling here is your classic complete hitting first baseman with power and patience. And it looks like the Athletics intend to fly him through the minors, so it might not even be crazy to see him break camp with the team, even if I wouldn’t bet on that. The biggest downside is that his season ended on August 24th with a hamstring injury, and injuries have plagued him throughout his career, so I think it’s something that has to be taken into account unfortunately. He returned in time to decimate the AFL with a 1.058 OPS in 13 games, so I don’t think you should overrate the injury risk too much, but it’s worth noting. – 2025 Projection: 48/16/57/.247/.323/.439/4 Prime Projection: 89/28/93/.266/.351/.488/6

7) Konnor Griffin – PIT, OF, 18.11 – Selected 9th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Griffin has the highest pure upside in this entire class, and that includes Roki Sasaki. He’s 6’4”, 215 pounds and has the look of a #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft as a QB. He has the neck of a football player too. He also has the athleticism of a football player with legit potential to put up 30/30 seasons with a plus to double plus power/speed combo. He’s shown a good feel to hit with a good plate approach in his high school career, but like I mentioned back in February 2024 when I did a very early Top 10 FYPD Ranking, the swing isn’t necessarily the smoothest thing in the world, although it actually looks much better to me now than it did then. Plus you can tack on electric bat speed and bank on continued refinement considering how young he is for the class. Pitt obviously wasn’t worried enough about the hit tool to let him slip by them at #9, and for fantasy especially, I wouldn’t let it scare you off him either. This is legit elite dynasty asset potential, and there is chance you are kicking yourself 1-2 years from now for taking a good but not great college bat, over this potentially elite dynasty player. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 89/25/92/.261/.337/.470/33

8) Cam Smith – HOU, 3B, 22.1 – Selected 14th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, the 6’3”, 224 pound Smith generates a tremendous amount of power with very little movement in his swing. It is quick, powerful and short to the ball. It is straight up one of the quietest swings from one of the biggest men I’ve ever seen. The swing is geared more for a line drive, all fields approach rather than pull and lift, which is why he didn’t put up the gaudy homer totals as some of his other college hitting brethren with only 16 homers in 66 games in the ACC. But he has the raw power to make that profile work, and the upside is that it can come with a high BA. We saw what this profile can look like at it’s best in his dominant pro debut, slashing .313/.396/.609 with 7 homers, 2 steals, and a 17.9/11.2 K%/BB% in 32 games split between Single-A, High-A, and Double-A. He put up a 122 wRC+ in 5 games at Double-A, so the profile was transferring to the upper minors, and he clearly had no problems ripping dingers to all fields with the wood bat. He very well might have the top hit/power combo in the FYPD class, and it’s why Houston targeted him in the Kyle Tucker trade. The trade doesn’t really change his value at all, but he will definitely get a nice ballpark upgrade even if he doesn’t have the type of profile that necessarily needs it. – 2025 Projection: 12/4/17/.247/.308/.412/1 Prime Projection: 84/24/89/.273/.340/.466/4

9) Hagen Smith – CHW, LHP, 21.7 – Selected 6th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, the White Sox know a thing or two about developing vicious lefty starters with funky deliveries and some control risk. They’ve done just fine with Chris Sale, Garrett Crochet, and Noah Schultz. The 6’3”, 225 pound Hagen Smith is next on that list with a three quarter arm slot delivery that he uses to fire a double plus mid 90’s fastball and double plus slider. Both pitches are whiff machines, leading to a 2.04 ERA with a 48.6%/10.3% K%/BB% in 84 IP in the SEC. He also mixes in a splitter, and while he doesn’t throw it that often, it’s a good pitch when he goes to it. The walk rate is on the high side, and it was worse in his freshman and sophomore seasons with a 13.4% BB% in 148.3 IP. Improving his control/command and turning his splitter into a higher usage 3rd weapon can turn Smith into a true ace. If he can’t improve in those areas, a high K, mid-rotation starter is within the range of outcomes (and I guess the bullpen is too, but you don’t take a guy 6th overall to use him in the bullpen long term). I’m surprised that Smith was allowed to debut in 2024, but Chicago marches to the beat of their own drum. He more than held his own at High-A with a 3.52 ERA and 21.2/6.1 K%/BB% in 7.2 IP over 3 outings. The filthy stuff was as advertised, and while the K numbers weren’t off the charts, it’s nice to see that clean walk rate. Add a star for being young for the class, but take a star away for already undergoing Tommy John when he was 16 years old. – 2025 Projection: 2/3.91/1.28/50 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.48/1.17/203 in 175 IP

10) Charlie Condon – COL, 3B/1B/OF, 21.11 – Let me just start by saying that I’ve been valuing pro debuts extremely high from the second I started writing back in 2015/16, and it has served me extremely well in both directions (moving guys both up and down). It was back before any other outlet would even consider changing their evaluation or ranking of a player based on their pro debut. When asked, they would just hand wave it away and say something like “small sample,” even though the sample was often actually bigger in pro ball than it was in their Junior year of college (back when the draft was in early June). It made no sense to me why the pro debut with wood bats and more advanced pitching wouldn’t be weighed more heavily. And now, you see basically every outlet change their ranking at least somewhat based on the pro debuts, which is the right move. That brings us to Charlie Condon, who just had the type of pro debut you have nightmares over. Despite all of his pre draft hype, he did have some hit tool questions at 6’6” with relatively high K rates throughout his college career. And the hit tool immediately didn’t transfer to pro ball with a .180 BA and 31.2/3.7 K%/BB% in 25 games at High-A. That isn’t just bad, that is atrocious. Completely lost. It’s not great that the only question he had coming out of the draft was immediately answered, and not in a good way. This was a 21 year old in the lower minors. You need a high FYPD college bat to dominate in the majors by like 23 years old, let alone High-A. Jacob Berry and Chase Davis were the last two hyped college bats to have poor pro debuts, and neither of their values are anywhere close to where you wanted them to be. Condon is a better prospect than both of those guys, and I’m not dropping him as far down as those guys at all, but I do believe he does deserve a real drop. This draft class was already really tightly packed at the top with a lot of really, really good college talent, but no one true standout. So based on Condon’s poor debut, I don’t see how it doesn’t make complete sense to drop him under those guys. He has a clear carrying tool in his power, and of course I do factor in that the pro debut was at the end of a long season, draft process, new team, new coach, new everything etc …, so he’s still a Top 10 FYPD pick for me. I still like him as a power bat who will get to hit in Coors (but also gets their developmental team, and it looks like he still needs development). I just wouldn’t be able to pull the trigger on him until the other similarly talented college players with better debuts were off the board first. I feel like that’s reasonable. – ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/30/88/.241/.322/.472/8

11) Braden Montgomery – CHW, OF, 22.0 – Selected 12th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, there was a lot of talk about Montgomery dropping his righty swing to hit exclusively lefty. That doesn’t really seem like what you want to hear from a highly drafted college bat, but the lefty swing is so smooth and powerful I get why it doesn’t seem like that big of a deal overall. He also had a 20% K% which is substantially higher than the college bats drafted before him. Maybe that is partly why he slipped a bit to 12th overall, and also why Boston was willing to include him in the Crochet trade. The broken ankle which he suffered pre draft on June 8th was also likely a major reason for the drop. So he certainly has some risk with hit tool, platooning and injury, but he also has very major power upside. He’s 6’2”, 220 pounds and he smashed 27 homers with a 1.187 OPS in 61 games in the SEC. He’s been smashing homers his entire career with 62 homers in 187 games split between the Pac 12 and SEC. He absolutely destroys the baseball with huge exit velocities. That gives him a no doubt carrying tool that will make him a fantasy force. As for the trade, it really doesn’t change his value at all. The path to playing time is clearer, but it’s an organization downgrade and a future lineup downgrade. It’s also a ballpark downgrade. If anything, it makes me like him slightly less, but again, this really shouldn’t change his value too much. – ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 81/28/89/.251/.333/.475/6

12) Jac Caglionone – KCR, 1B, 22.2 – Selected 6th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Caglionone’s pro debut was on the disappointing side, and with how tightly packed the talent is in the FYPD Top 12, he’s sliding down my rankings to the bottom of that Top 12 tier. He had hit tool and chase questions coming out of the draft, and hitting .241 with a 20.6/5.6 K%/BB% in his 29 game pro debut at High-A did nothing to quell those issues. He put up a lowly 94 wRC+ with 2 homers, which isn’t what you want to see from an elite college bat in the lower minors. He then went to the AFL where the pitching was so bad this year, they are actively trying to figure out how to improve the pitchers in that league in future years, and he still couldn’t dominate with a .749 OPS in 21 games. Tons of hitters were putting up just wacky numbers in that extreme offensive environment. He did jack 5 homers, and there is zero doubt about his massive power, so there is no doubt he has a carrying tool even if the hit tool and plate approach take time to adjust to pro pitching. He’s built like an NFL tight end at 6’5”, 250 pounds, and he obliterated the SEC with 75 homers in 165 career games. It took him some time to improve his plate skills in college as well, making big improvements his junior year with a 8.2/18.4 K%/BB% (18.2/5.3 K%/BB% his sophomore year), so the hope is that he can do the same in the majors. KC’s ballpark is death to lefty homers, and while I am factoring that in a bit, he has the type of power to not get too hung up on it. Even though the pro debut does have him sliding down the rankings a bit, it’s almost more because of how much comparable college talent there is at the top of this class to begin with. He’s still a very exciting power bat. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 81/31/92/.248/.329/.479/6

Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon (free ones listed in parenthesis)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

Posted on February 28, 2024February 28, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Predicting the Top 50 2025 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings (Patreon)

I fasted for 30 days, hiked deep into the forest, and climbed the highest Mountain in the state of New York, Mount Marcy, to Devine what the Top 50 2025 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings will look like at this time next year. I was seeing visions of the future left and right, or maybe I was hallucinating from lack of food and water, but who’s to say. This is one of my favorite articles to write every year and it doubles as a Bold Predictions article, so I definitely go hard on some of my calls here. Here is the link to last year’s version of this article (patreon). Ages are as of 2025 Opening Day. Here is the Predicting the 2025 Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings (1-28):

1) Roki Sasaki LAD, RHP, 23.5 – Chiba Lotte will milk every last drop out of Sasaki’s arm before releasing him from his team obligation. He will jump over 50 innings from his previous career high and will throw 180+ innings. The ERA will be under 2.00, which isn’t even bold because he has a career 1.90 ERA, and he’ll strikeout 250 batters. He will then of course want to sign with the Dodgers because everyone wants to sign with the Dodgers, and people will once again lose their minds that the Dodgers are ruining baseball, even though the Dodgers will have once again fallen short of a World Series title, losing to the eventual Champion Cincinnati Reds in 7 games in the NLCS. I just ranked Sasaki 1st overall in my Top 11+ 2025 FYPD Rankings (patreon).

2) Walker Jenkins MIN, OF, 20.1 – The debate will rage next off-season of Sasaki vs. Jenkins. I will make an exception from my usual bats over arms stance due to just how next level Sasaki is, but I won’t feel great about it. Jenkins will make a mockery of lower minors pitching so quickly that he will be put on the fast track to Double-A, and Double-A won’t slow him down either where he’ll put up a 120 wRC+ with power, speed, and contact. Everyone will comp him to Kyle Tucker because he’s a big white lefty … oh wait, I already comped him to Tucker in his Top 1,000 blurb … Is that a self fulfilling prophesy?

3) Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 23.11 – Jones will get called up in September, crack the hardest hit ball in the majors all season at 122.3 MPH, record a 29+ ft/sec sprint speed, and then watch as everyone’s head explodes as they hype him to death over the off-season. It will be the Elly 2.0 debates on upside vs. risk as the K rate will be above 30% in the majors and high 20’s in the upper minors, but with Elly coming off a 25/50 season in the majors, there won’t be many dissenting voices on Jones.

4) Jackson Jobe DET, RHP, 22.9 – Jobe has enough good talent ahead of him on the depth chart and a low enough innings cap where he won’t quite surpass his rookie eligibility, but he’ll be Eury Perez like in his first taste of the bigs with an upper 90’s fastball and whiff machine secondaries. The ERA will be under 3.50 and the K% will be over 30% in 49.2 IP. He’ll be ranked Top 50-ish on 2025 Dynasty Rankings everywhere you look.

5) Roman Anthony BOS, OF, 20.11 – Anthony will quiet any lingering hit tool concern in the upper minors with a .300+ BA and around 20% K%, but the homer/steal totals won’t be quite as big as we would hope with high groundball rates and a poor stolen base success rate. It will be just enough to keep him out of the #1 overall spot, but not enough to keep him out of the elite of the elite tier.

6) Josue De Paula LAD, OF, 19.10 – Seeing Josue De Paula’s name is giving me visions of Scarface, directed by Brian De Palma, and all I can hear is “Say hello to my little friend.” That is what De Paula is going to be saying to minor league pitching as his power explodes in a major way. And combined with his elite approach, it’s going to be shades of Juan Soto all over again.

7) Druw Jones ARI, OF, 21.4 – Druw Jones has been taking notes on all you mofo’s (I say that in an endearing way 😉 who kept him off your Top 100 list in a season coming off shoulder surgery, and he’s going to come out with a chip on that shoulder like you’ve never seen. He’ll smash the lower minors with a mature plate approach, 15 homers, and 30 steals before closing out the year at Double-A where’ll hold his own with a 105 wRC+ in 20 games. He’s a nice kid, so he’ll forgive you, but he won’t forget. Thanks for giving him the motivation he needed, because being Andruw Jones’ kid, he’s never been doubted before.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 500 2024 PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 132 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (+Target & Strategy Guide)
-POSITION BY POSTION TARGET ARTICLES
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-TOP 11+ 2025 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)