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1) Shohei Ohtani – LAD, RHP/DH, 31.9 – Shoulder surgery? No problem. Ohtani came back and put up career highs in homers (55), Barrel% (23.5%) and xwOBA (.439). Internal brace surgery? No problem. Ohtani returned to the mound and put up career highs in BB% (4.3%), xERA (2.45), velocity (98.4 MPH) and nearly K% (33.0%). You can cut this man open. You can slice and dice him. And like Ben Stiller from Dodgeball, he is just going to keep coming at you angrier and stronger. Nobody makes Othani bleed his own blood. Okay, maybe not like Ben Stiller from Dodgeball at all, because the small market good guys actually won in the end in Dodgeball, unlike real life, where the behemoth Dodgers crushed the spirits of the “good guys”, the Toronto Blue Jays, in one of the most epic Game 7 World Series comebacks of all time. This is real life, and most of the time, the bad guys win. I refused to let the injuries shake my faith in Othani one bit last off-season, still placing him 1st overall and writing, “It’s his 2nd major elbow surgery in 5 years, but I’m not betting against a super human talent like Ohtani, and the same goes for the shoulder surgery. I just can’t bring myself to bet against the true GOAT.” Father Time will now be the last boss for him to defeat, and while we all know Father Time is undefeated, I just might think Ohtani can take him ;). I don’t know the age Ohtani has to be to move me off him from this top spot, but I do know 31/32 isn’t going to be it. He once again is my #1 player in dynasty. – 2026 Projection: 130/50/115/.286/.391/.630/23 // 12/3.07/1.05/191 in 150 IP
Shadow1) Shohei Ohtani – LAD, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 31.9 – This is first time I’ve had Shadow Ohtani shadowing the real Ohtani. I feel like the world is folding in on itself. This is where I would rank Ohtani in weekly lineup leagues or as a hitter only. He’s just too good. I don’t care that he’s 31 years old. He’s going to give Father Time the first loss of his career. – 2026 Projection: 130/50/115/.286/.391/.630/23
2) Juan Soto – NYM, OF, 27.6 – Where the fuck did 38 steals come from? That was tied for the 4th most in baseball. More than Elly De La Cruz stole. More than Trea Turner stole. Just as many as Bobby Witt stole. And it wasn’t just that he decided to run more. He was also extremely successful, getting caught only 4 times. He was caught 4 times in just 11 attempts in 2024. He got caught 5 times in 17 attempts in 2023. He got caught 7 times in 16 attempts in 2021. And the craziest part is, he actually got slower this year. Like, a lot slower with a 25.8 ft/sec sprint (26.8 in 2024). And oh yea, he also hit a career high 43 homers with his usual truly elite offensive performance (.441 xwOBA was 2nd to only Aaron Judge). It would be so damn silly if he just went back to stealing 10 bags next year. We can’t expect 38 again, or maybe even 30, but I’m not sure how 20+ isn’t the expectation, and adding stolen bases to his profile easily makes him the #2 dynasty asset behind Ohtani. – 2026 Projection: 118/38/109/.282/.412/.535/21
3) Bobby Witt Jr. – KCR, SS, 26.10 – Witt hit only 23 homers in 157 games, and while I want to completely hand wave it away as just a down power season, I don’t think we can completely dismiss it. Kauffman Stadium is one of the very worst ballparks for homers, and I definitely think it is playing a big role in subduing Witt’s homer totals. But even looking at his expected homer totals in other ballparks, they all look like they hovered/averaged out to the mid 20’s area. His 12.5% Barrel% is good, but it’s not like off the charts good. His 34.9% Pull% is below average and pretty damn low for a power hitter. He hit 32 and 30 homers the two previous years, so I’m not saying at all that this is now his true talent level, but I feel like the hope was for Witt to explode into like a 30-40+ home run perennial type bat, and the numbers just aren’t saying that is who he is. The only other quibble is that the plate approach is still below average with a 7.1% BB% and 30.7% Chase%. The hope was that he would have improved on that by now too. I only bring up the negatives because they are more interesting to me. We all know Witt is an elite dynasty asset, and I have him ranked 3rd overall for a reason. He smokes the ball with a 93.3 MPH EV and a 48.5% Hard Hit%, both of which are career highs. He lifts it with a 15.2 degree launch, he makes tons of contact with a 18.2% K%, and he’s one of the fastest men in baseball with a 30.2 ft/sec sprint. I love him. He’s an untouchable if I own him. But I do think it’s worth mentioning the kinks in the armor. – 2026 Projection: 109/31/101/.306/.367/.518/36
4) Corbin Carroll – ARI, OF, 25.7 – If you thought the 5’10” Carroll was already topped out power wise. If you still had that scary moment in your head from 2023 where he held his shoulder in agonizing pain after a swing. If you thought we’ve already seen peak Carroll. Think again, because he just leveled up in 2025 to a whole new stratosphere. His power exploded with a 92.1 MPH EV, 14.5% Barrel%, 115.8 MPH Max EV, a 16.7 degree launch, 49.9% Hard Hit%, and a 22.9% Air Pull%. All of those were career highs by far, and they led to a career high 31 homers with a career high .383 xwOBA. He was already an elite dynasty asset, and now he’s leveled up to an elite real life hitter too. He combined the newfound power with his already elite speed (29.8 ft/sec sprint), leading to the first 30/30 season of his career. He has a real case to be 2nd overall, and his value is equal to Soto and Witt. – 2026 Projection: 112/29/91/.266/.350/.519/36
5) Ronald Acuna Jr. – ATL, OF, 28.4 – This wasn’t like the last time. The last time Acuna came back from a torn ACL he looked rough with only 15 homers and a .764 OPS in 119 games. This time he went right back to being elite with 21 homers, a .935 OPS, and a .407 xwOBA that was 8th best in baseball in 95 games. But just because I love to scare you a little, I can’t help but notice some similarities to Mike Trout’s career arc. Acuna has played in more than 119 games in a season just twice in his career. Just like Trout’s decline, Acuna’s whiff% is starting to creep up there as well with a 30.3% whiff% that was a career worst. And just like Trout, it sure seems like there could be stolen base decline, only stealing 9 bags with a barely above average 27.9 ft/sec sprint. If the back nine of Acuna’s career is injury filled with big power and declining steals and BA, don’t kill the messenger. But it’s too early to actually put that on him. And as you see with my extremely high ranking of him, I’m not running scared at that possibility. He proved he is healthy and back to being an elite hitter coming off the knee surgery. He should steal more bags with a full healthy off-season. That demands him being back into the elite of the elite dynasty tier. – 2026 Projection: 115/34/98/.279/.393/.520/25
6) Elly De La Cruz – CIN, SS, 24.3 – Elly’s evaluation is kinda all over the place. I try my best to present coherent thoughts/analysis/arguments when writing these blurbs, but Elly’s 2025 is making that as hard as possible. You can say one of the major positives of his season was the major improvement to his K% (25.9% vs. 31.3% in 2024), but his still risky whiff% wasn’t nearly as improved (31.7% vs. 33.4%), and his BA tanked in the 2nd half with a .221 BA and 28.9% K% in his final 52 games. So it’s hard to just say there is now no hit tool risk with him. His 22 homers and 37 steals are awesome, but both numbers were worse than what he did in 2024 (25/67). The 7.6 degree launch and 9.8% Air Pull% both regressed from 2024 too. He finished 23rd overall on the Razzball Player Rater, which is great, but again, his 2nd half slide really puts a damper on that (.854 OPS pre break vs. .666 post break). It’s really easy to start getting lost in the weeds here, so I feel the best thing to do is pull out as far as possible to not lose the forest through the trees. And the forest is telling us this is an insanely talented young kid who might not be perfectly refined quite yet, and might not be completely without risk, but is still on that path to put up some truly special seasons. He was just 23 years old last year. I’m not letting the poor 2nd half and things to nitpick throw me. This is an elite dynasty asset whose best years are ahead of him. – 2026 Projection: 107/27/89/.262/.338/.473/40
7) Aaron Judge – NYY, OF, 33.11 – Judge is the best hitter in baseball and it’s really not even close. His .476 xwOBA led all of baseball by a mile (Soto’s .441 was 2nd), and his .463 wOBA led all of baseball by 2 miles (Nick Kurtz’ .419 was 2nd). He doesn’t run a ton, but he runs enough to more than chip in there too (12 steals). The only question when it comes to dynasty is his age. He’s going to be 34 years old for most of 2026. I said that Ohtani is about to hand Father Time his first loss, and Father Time could be fighting a battle on 2 fronts with Aaron Judge coming for him too. It sure doesn’t look like Judge is falling off that cliff anytime soon. Maybe a smarter dynasty owner than me would pull the trigger on a trade when his value is still through the roof, but I know that I wouldn’t be able to do it if my team was still competing. Age be damned, he deserves a super high ranking. – 2026 Projection: 131/54/120/.313/.432/.666/10
8) Fernando Tatis Jr. – SDP, OF, 27.3 – Statcast expected stats are a tremendously valuable tool. I started using it in my analysis the second it hit the scene in 2015, and it has led to so many huge hits for me every single year since then (most notably Rice this season). But it’s not perfect. It has flaws. And the #1 one flaw seems to be that it underrates lifting and pulling. Tatis once again underperformed his expected stats with a .381 xwOBA vs. .353 wOBA. He had a .387 xwOBA vs. .359 wOBA in 2024 and a .364 xwOBA vs. .332 wOBA in 2023. He has a career .382 xwOBA vs. a career .368 wOBA. The discrepancy is very clearly due to the 9.4 degree launch and 12% Air Pull%. Not to come at Statcast, because I love Statcast, but why they wouldn’t change the formula a bit is beyond me. So while expected stats paint a rosier picture than reality, reality is still extremely rosy. Tatis went .268/25/32 and finished 27th overall on the Razzball Player Rater. He crushes the ball with a 93.3 MPH EV, he’s fast with a 28.6 ft/sec sprint, and he actually had the best K/BB of his career with a 18.7/12.9 K%/BB%, both of which were career bests. His 24.4% Chase% and 27% whiff% were both career bests as well. Unless he starts lifting and pulling a lot more, which is certainly possible, we can’t really expect those big mid 30’s, .900+ OPS seasons, but he’s still excellent as is. – 2026 Projection: 103/29/84/.277/.365/.490/29
9) Julio Rodriguez – SEA, OF, 25.3 – The 2nd half bandit struck again. Julio put up a .731 OPS in the 1st half vs. a .900 OPS in the 2nd half. It’s wild how consistent he is. In 2024, he had a .690 1st half OPS vs. .818 2nd half OPS. In 2023 he had a .721 1st half OPS vs. .941 2nd half OPS. In 2022 he had a .814 1st half OPS vs. .937 2nd half OPS. Can nobody figure out how to get him to hit as well in the 1st half as he does in the 2nd half? Is it too much like messing with voodoo. Like if you try to change a good thing to make it better, you are actually going to make it worse. Instead of his 1st half’s matching his 2nd half’s, it will be the other way around. I guess it’s better off this way if you play in playoff leagues anyway. And no matter how he gets there, it always ends up in a great fantasy season with 32 homers, 30 steals and a career best 21.4% K%. He still chases a ton with a 35.9% Chase%, which is probably a big part of the volatility, but when you swing a 76.4 MPH bat, you can make that work. He hasn’t really improved at all or refined his game from his rookie year, and while you can’t rule out improvement as he’s still really young, I think we gotta value him as is. Sweat out the poor 1st half and then enjoy the monster 2nd half. – 2026 Projection: 104/30/93/.275/.334/.482/31
10) Gunnar Henderson – BAL, SS, 24.9 – Gunnar hit only 17 homers in 154 games. Monster power hitters really don’t have seasons like that. Like ever. Power can fluctuate year to year for sure, but dipping to only 17 is not normal. And it’s not like it was the result of some extended cold stretch. He never hit more than 4 in a month and he hit only 1 in September. The barely above average 8.5% Barrel% is also not saying this was some massively unlucky aberration. And we already know he’s not a big lift and pull guy with a 9.5 degree launch and 15.3% Air Pull%. I’m not saying this is now who he is at all, but I think it does say the 37 homers he hit in 2024 isn’t who he is either. He’s probably more of a 25+ guy who will hit 30+ when things go right, similar to Tatis and Julio. You can also blame the intercoastal strain that put him on the IL to start the season. It just felt like he started the year behind the 8 ball and could never catch up. His 12.3% HR/FB% was way off from his career norms (18.8%), so you have to assume some positive regression, and he crushes the ball with a 92.1 MPH EV, a 49.2% Hard Hit%, and a 75.4 MPH swing, so there is just no way a power bounce back isn’t coming. And the big silver lining to his down year was that he stole 30 bags. A power bounce back to 25+ will put him right in line with a Tatis and Julio like projected stat line. – 2026 Projection: 101/28/86/.278/.359/.481/25
11) Nick Kurtz – OAK, 1B, 23.1 – Kurtz stepped right into the majors and immediately performed like one of the best power hitters of all time with 36 homers and a 1.002 OPS in 117 games. He was actually even better in his brief minor league career with a 1.152 OPS in 33 games, and he was even better than that in his college career with a 1.234 OPS in 164 games, so it’s not like what he did in the majors came out of nowhere. It follows the narrative of him simply being one of the best hitters of his generation. The 77.2 MPH swing, 18.4% Barrel%, and 97.7 MPH FB/LD EV are all in the elite of the elite. There is no question that he’s going to be a beastly power hitter for a long time, but there is a question if he’s really going to be an all time great. For one, he played in a minor league stadium that was massively juicing up homer totals (he hit 22 at home vs. 12 on the road). He’ll be playing there again in 2026 and 2027, so I’m not even sure we can use that as a negative, but it’s something to keep in mind for 2028 and beyond. The two biggest red flags are that he struggled vs. lefties (.197 BA with a .685 OPS), and that he showed danger zone level of swing and miss with a 35.5% whiff% and 30.9% K%. He had a 31.2% K% in his final 48 games, and a .221 BA with a 35.1% K% in his final 23 games, so you certainly can’t say it was improving by the end of the year either. If he has a sophomore slump where the BA tanks, it won’t be coming out of nowhere. The signs were there. But in dynasty especially, it would be far too risk averse to get scared off by that. This was just his first full year of pro ball, so I’m expecting contact improvement, and he’s the type of hitter who can hit for high BA’s even with an elevated K%, like he’s been doing his whole career. My bet is that he is one of the best power hitters of his generation, and the floor is high too as he’s going to hit a ton of dingers no matter what. – 2026 Projection: 97/38/111/.267/.361/.528/3
12) Junior Caminero – TBR, 3B, 22.9 – Caminero vs. Kurtz is a going to be a super fun debate to have all off-season, and I really don’t think you can go wrong with either. Caminero has the same question that Kurtz has about having the huge season in a minor league park, which is very suspicious, but Caminero actually hit 22 homers at home vs. 23 homers on the road (albeit with a much worse OPS). Tropicana Field is also a good ballpark for righty homers, so I don’t really think it’s that much of a concern that Caminero is going back to the Trop in 2026. And like Kurtz, Caminero also has elite of the elite bat speed (78.6 MPH) and FB/LD EV (97.7 MPH). Caminero’s biggest edge over Kurtz is his contact rates (19.1% K% and 24.7% whiff%), but Kurtz beats him on Chase% (32.2% vs. 22.2%) and BB% (6.3% vs. 12.9%), so that mitigates that edge majorly. And while Caminero doesn’t lift as much (10.7 degree launch vs. 15.3 degree launch), he pulls more (21.5% Air Pull% vs. 15.8% Air Pull%). It is really a back and forth battle for the best young power hitter in the game that could be decided either way. Kurtz’ superior plate approach gives him a ceiling as a generational real life hitter than I don’t think Caminero quite reaches, and Caminero’s superior contact rate gives him a much safer floor. Because I lean upside over floor, I’m giving Kurtz the edge, but it’s truly dead even for me. – 2026 Projection: 92/35/107/.276/.330/.519/8
13) Roman Anthony – BOS, OF, 21.11 – I nitpicked a few things about Anthony last off-season that I thought could impact his ultimate fantasy value. For one, I questioned how many bases he was going to steal, and I was correct with him stealing only 4 in 71 games in the majors (3 in 58 games in the minors). I also questioned how much he was going to lift and pull, and again, I was correct as he put up a 6.9 degree launch with a 13.8% Air Pull%. He hit 8 homers in 71 games. And finally I questioned the contact rates, and there too I ended up being correct with him putting up a 27.7% K% and 29.8% whiff%. I was right about the things to nitpick, and maybe they still come into play in future years, but the bat was just so insanely elite I don’t think it matters anymore. He had an elite of the elite 75.1 MPH swing with a 94.5 MPH EV and 60.3% Hard Hit%. That puts him in the land of Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Yordan Alvarez. While the homer totals weren’t high, 6 of them came in his final 21 games. The .382 xwOBA is already in the near elite range. A bat like that is launch proof, and even if he doesn’t run a ton, anything he does add there is just gravy. His best comp looking at the elite dynasty assets could be Juan Soto, albeit with worse contact rates. – 2026 Projection: 102/25/81/.272/.379/.486/10 Prime Projection: 120/35/105/.285/.406/.530/15
14) Kyle Tucker – UFA, OF, 29.3 – The Quiet Killer finally had a season that wasn’t all that quiet. The spotlight was put on him with the trade to the Cubbies, and it looked like he was going to have one of those massive contract years in the 1st half with a .291 BA, 17 homers, 20 steals, and a .933 OPS in his first 82 games, but it all came crumbling down after that. He literally might have had a 100 million dollar slump with a .692 OPS, 5 homers, and 5 steals in his final 54 games. It seems the likely culprit was the hairline fracture he suffered in his right hand in June. They originally missed the fracture in the imaging, so he played through it, but it clearly had a major impact on his production. We can’t hold the slump against him, and hopefully MLB teams don’t hold it against him in contract negotiations, but I’m almost sure they will. Either way, Tucker is one of the most consistent players in our game, a perennial 30/30 candidate, and at 29 years of age, there should be several more elite seasons in him. I don’t think his landing spot should impact his value majorly, but he’s more of a lift and pull guy than a hard hit beast, so I would certainly prefer a good ballpark. It could swing his value a bit on the margins. – 2026 Projection: 94/30/89/.276/.380/.501/25
15) Garrett Crochet – BOS, LHP, 26.10 – There is a clear 3-headed monster in the true top tier of dynasty pitchers, and all 3 have great arguments to be the #1 overall dynasty pitcher in the game, but only one of them can take the crown, and I’m anointing a new King this off-season. Garrett Crochet is my #1 dynasty pitcher in the game. It feels to weird to say because he’s likely the worst pitcher of the 3 on skills alone. Worse being relative as he’s still insanely elite with a 2.59 ERA and 31.3/5.7 K%/BB% in 205.1 IP. He was the #1 overall pitcher on the Razzball Player Rater. His 255 strikeouts led all of baseball. He pitched the 2nd most innings in baseball behind only Logan Webb. He won the 2nd most games behind only Max Fried and tied with Carlos Rodon. And his 25.7% K-BB% was 2nd to Tarik Skubal. Even if he’s very, very, very slightly worse than Skubal and Skenes on skills alone, he has Skenes beat on Win potential (and probably Skubal too), and he has Skubal beat on age (I talk more about age in the Skenes blurb). I could pick any of the 3 out of hat and be fine with that order, but Crochet seems to be in that perfect Goldilocks zone of young, elite, and on a good team. Skubal and Skenes can’t fully check all 3 of those boxes like Crochet can. – 2026 Projection: 17/2.88/1.05/246 in 195 IP
16) Paul Skenes – PIT, RHP, 23.10 – Playing for Pitt kills Skenes’ in wins. Pitt scored 583 Runs which was last in baseball, and the only other team even close to them was Colorado at 597 (absolutely wild that it’s even possible for Colorado to be that bad playing in Coors). The guy put up a 1.97 ERA with a 29.5/5.7 K%/BB% in 187.2 IP and won only 10 games. Konnor Griffin is coming, and Pitt has nowhere to go but up, but it’s a major thorn in his fantasy value. On almost any other team, he would be the undisputed top dog, and in Quality Start leagues, he would be my top dog, but in Wins leagues, it has to be taken into account. Crochet and Skenes are close enough in age, and Crochet is elite enough himself, where I do give the edge to Crochet. But I just can’t seem to bring myself to say that I would trade a 23 year old Skenes for a 29 year old Skubal in dynasty, even though Skubal is the better win now fantasy pitcher. Skenes nestles inbetween Crochet and Skubal at #2. – 2026 Projection: 12/2.55/0.99/238 in 195 IP
17) Tarik Skubal – DET, LHP, 29.5 – Skubal is the best pitcher in baseball. He’s better than Crochet and Skenes. His 27.8 K-BB% led all of baseball amongst qualified starters. His 32.2% K% led all of baseball. His 0.89 WHIP led all of baseball. His 4.4% BB% trailed only Zack Littell. His 2.21 ERA trailed only Paul Skenes. He trailed Garrett Crochet by only 1 spot on the player rater, and that was in a year where Crochet won 5 more games than him, and we know wins are fickle. He’s in his last year of team control for Detroit, so wherever he ends up landing, it’s almost certain to be a good team. Wins shouldn’t be a problem. There is a great argument that at a not old 29, and considering age shouldn’t be factored in as much for pitchers due to the injury volatility, that he should be the #1 dynasty pitcher in the game. I wouldn’t argue with anyone that puts him first. I was honestly tearing the hair out of my head trying to figure out the right order. – 2026 Projection: 15/2.51/0.94/242 in 195 IP
18) Zach Neto – LAA, SS, 25.2 – I feel like nobody wants to admit that Neto is a near elite dynasty asset. Actually, I feel like nobody really wanted to bet on this kid like I have since before he was drafted. I ranked him 3rd overall in his FYPD class, far above consensus, and then I’ve kept being the high man on him since. And I guess I’ll keep being the high man on him after his power explosion in 2025. He came back from shoulder surgery, and the medical community has obviously perfected this surgery of late, because everyone seems to come back with a super charged shoulder. His EV jumped 2.5 MPH to 91.5 MPH, his Hard Hit jumped 7.8 points to 46.6%, and his Barrel% jumped 7.6 points to 14%. It led to a career high 26 homers in just 128 games. He also never lifted and pulled more with a 17.5 degree launch and 24% Air Pull%. This is an easy 30 homer bat. He also stole 26 bags, and while he got caught 9 times, he was improving as the season went along with 13 steals in 15 attempts in his final 62 games. He’s going to keep on running, making him a reasonable bet for a perennial 30/30 bat. The 26.9/6.0 K%/BB% isn’t great, but neither the 30.1% Chase% or 29.1% whiff% is in the true danger zone, and he’s displayed a good feel to hit throughout this entire career. I’m not too worried about the hit tool tanking him. I know you don’t want to admit it, but this is what a near elite dynasty asset looks like. – 2026 Projection: 91/30/86/.255/.323/.478/30
19) Wyatt Langford – TEX, OF, 24.5 – Langford actually did have the blow up we were all expecting in 2025, it just didn’t fully show up in the surface stats. And even his surface stats were pretty good when it was all said and done. His 14% Barrel%, 91.4 MPH EV, and 48.4% Hard Hit% were all up majorly from 2024, and all of them are now in truly special power territory. That is exactly what we wanted to see. Combined with his already strong lift and pull (17.5 degree launch and 24.2% Air Pull%), he’s setting up to be an easy 30+ homer bat for years to come. Along with the power, he kept on running, ending up with a 22/22 season in 134 games. That is what he did when he was on the unlucky side (.353 xwOBA vs. .337 wOBA). The contact rates took a step back, but a 26.3% whiff% is absolutely zero to be concerned about. Not only did he avoid the sophomore slump, but he took a step forward in his surface stats, and 2 steps forward in his underlying numbers. It was a tremendously successful season, and if people are starting to cool on him, even slightly, I would be all over it. I’m not budging on him. – 2026 Projection: 88/28/91/.263/.349/.470/22
20) Jackson Chourio – MIL, OF, 22.1 – Chourio didn’t take the steps forward we wanted to see. He basically had a repeat of his rookie year. He went .275/21/22 in 2024 and then went .270/21/21 in 2025. The .319 xwOBA is just barely above average. He lifted and pulled a bit more, but he still doesn’t lift and pull a ton. He hits the ball hard, but a 42.3% Hard Hit% is not off the charts. He runs, but he’s not a particularly great base stealer (caught 7 times). And the worst part of the year is that his Chase% spiked to 36.9%, which is entering the danger zone if not already there. I’ve seen the seeds of doubt start to creep into people’s minds. If Chourio felt inevitable after 2024, I would say he doesn’t feel quite as inevitable after 2025. But once you add the context that those were his 20 year old and 21 year old seasons, I don’t know how you can’t still be all in on this kid. If 20/20 is the floor, 25/25, or 30/30 still feels inevitable in his peak seasons. Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt Jr never improved their high chase rates either, and they are doing just fine. Granted Julio hit the ball a lot hard and Witt lifted it a lot more, so they aren’t perfect comps. There is no guarantee massive improvement is coming. We’ve seen plenty of young kids like Chourio have success right off the bat, and then just never really improve. I hate to say it, but Michael Harris seems to be a pretty close comp to Chourio age, production and skillset wise. If he doesn’t show the steps forward we want to see in 2026, I think we are going to see the beginning of that dynasty value slip, but I’m betting on that improvement coming. – 2026 Projection: 94/25/85/.282/.332/.479/25
21) Pete Crow-Armstrong – CHC, OF, 24.0 – Can we just enjoy the season Pete Crow had before we start bashing him for this 2nd half and Chase. I feel like the angry 1950’s dad at the dinner table yelling at his kids while the family is crumbling around him. You’re going to sit there and be quiet, enjoy this food, and thank your mother for her hard work. Don’t make me bust out the whooping stick. Pete Crow was almost definitely my biggest hit of 2025 (I’ve been the high guy since he was drafted), ranking him 64th overall, and writing in part, “Pete Crow Armstrong’s power has been underrated from the time he was drafted. And in 2024, especially the 2nd half of 2024, we started to see the first buds of a breakout that could absolutely explode in 2025. For starters, he put up a 88.9/94.0 MPH AVG/FB EV on the season, which shows that power potential I saw 4 years ago wasn’t a mirage. And when it comes with a 17.2 degree launch, an elite 30.0 ft/sec sprint speed, and elite CF defense, you have the makings of an extremely exciting fantasy player. Put some respect on this man’s name. His name is Pete Crow Armstrong, not Pete Crow Armweak.” … and then the true explosion came in 2025 with him upping his Hard Hit% 4.8 points to 41.6%, upping his Max EV 6 MPH to 113.2 MPH, upping his Barrel% 5.6 points to 13%, and upping his bat speed 2.1 MPH to 72.7 MPH. It resulted in 31 homers, and he combines the power explosion with elite speed (29.5 ft/sec sprint with 35 steals) and elite CF defense. This was the insanely fun fantasy player I foresaw, but of course things can never be easy, and Pete Crow had go out and end the season with a massive slump. He put up a .525 OPS in his final 50 games. He definitely got unlucky with a not too bad 25.9% K% and a .222 BABIP, but it for sure more than hints at the risk still present in this profile. And that risk is the way too high 41.7% Chase%. High chase adds a lot of volatility, and that isn’t just high chase, that is full danger zone high chase. If you want to be scared off, that is fair, and I completely get it, but if you’ve read my work at all over the years, you know I’m not running scared. His glove is going to keep him on the field, and even with a low BA, that power/speed combo is going to make a major impact. I’m also betting on the plate approach improving as he matures. Pete Crow has already paid off majorly if you’ve taken my advice over his career, and I’ll be happy to keep buying if people are scared off by the 2nd half. – 2026 Projection: 86/28/88/.252/.308/.469/33
22) Konnor Griffin – PIT, SS/OF, 19.11 – I felt the Griffin explosion in my gut last off-season. The Baseball Gods were speaking to me, and I listened, predicting he would explode into elite prospect status in my Predicting the Top 50 2026 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings last off-season, ranking him 4th overall and writing, “Griffin will have the explosion that everyone who passed on him in first year player drafts feared he would have. The hit tool concerns will be overblown as he maintains an under 25% K% at Single-A, and the power/speed combo will shine with 16 homers and 48 steals in 102 games. He’ll basically be the 2026 version of the 2025 version of Sebastian Walcott. Off the charts tools and a better than expected hit tool.” … and then he went out and surpassed even those expectations, slashing .333/.415/.527 with 21 homers, 65 steals, and a 21.7/8.9 K%/BB% in 122 games. He finished the season at Double-A where he actually put up his best wRC+ of any level with a 175 wRC+ in 21 games. Remember when everyone was making excuses for the 19 year old Walcott at Double-A all year for his mediocre slash? Well, Griffin came in and just busted that whole thing up, showing a 19 year old can most certainly dominate the level. Not only did I forsee the rise in the off-season, but I got blow back after ranking him 1st overall on the Prospect Rankings in early June before he even got the call to High-A. I then made a final plea in my August Dynasty Rankings before he got the call to Double-A, shooting him up to 29th overall and writing, “This is my final plea to you. DO NOT TRADE GRIFFIN UNDER ANY SCENARIO. I don’t even think Roman Anthony can touch his upside. Just don’t trade him, please.” And then after what he did at Double-A, there is no more room for debate. He’s lightning fast, he crushes the ball with a 91.2 MPH EV and 49% Hard Hit%, and the hit tool was better than expected. This is not only the #1 prospect in baseball, but he’s already a nearly elite dynasty asset for me. – 2026 Projection: 28/9/35/.247/.318/.433/17 Prime Projection: 118/32/111/.279/.351/.523/44
23) Jose Ramirez – CLE, 3B, 33.7 – Mr. Consistency churned out another ho hum elite dynasty season with 30 homers and 44 steals. Those stolen bases were actually a career high. He’s played in less than 152 games just once since 2016 (not including the Covid shortened year). He’s going to be 33 years old, which after 30 years old, 33 years old is the next biggest marker for when dynasty value drops. You are now officially in your mid 30’s. I don’t foresee the cliff coming next year, but if we are going to find a comp for a reasonable career arc, Jose Altuve is a pretty good comp. Both are small guys without big bat speed and without big hard hit. Altuve put up a 164 wRC+ in his age 32 year old season and then a 154 wRC+ in his age 33 year old season, but the decline hit after that with a 127 wRC+ at age 34 and a 113 wRC+ at age 35. Ramirez hits the ball harder than Altuve and he runs more than Altuve, so his decline could be even smoother than Altuve’s, and Altuve has still been really good in those decline years, but I think it’s fair to start factoring in some decline at 34 years old. That gives him one more undisputed year of eliteness (yes, I know that isn’t a word), and probably more than a few after that of really damn good. – 2026 Projection: 106/32/90/.281/.355/.505/35
24) Cal Raleigh – SEA, C, 29.4 – Raleigh’s insane 2025 was very obviously a career year. I don’t think anybody is now expecting him to be a perennial 60 homer bat, or even 50 homer bat. The 28 year old career year is textbook, well almost textbook, as he does have one thing that says we shouldn’t discount a real leveling up here. And that is that he’s a catcher. Catcher’s are known for delayed offensive breakouts because of how much time they spend on their defense. And Raleigh did show real improvement in his underlying numbers too. The 26.7% K% and 13.8% BB% were both career bests, so it looks like there was some maturation of the plate skills. His 49.6% Hard Hit% is a career best, and while it’s not up majorly from 2024, it is up majorly from where it was in 2022-2023. His lift and pull was also up with career bests in launch (25.2 degrees) and Air Pull% (38.4%). Only Isaac Paredes had an Air Pull% even close to that (Paredes beat him out by 0.1 at 38.5, but the next highest was Tork at 31.8%). And the cherry on top is that he ran a ton for a catcher with 14 steals in 18 attempts. He was just having fun out there. So while it’s almost certain that 2025 will be the best year of his career, it does look like he’s leveled up from a 30+ homer bat to a 40+ homer bat. Catchers take a beating behind the plate, so who knows how long he will be able to hold that level, but I’m betting on a few more monster power seasons at least. – 2026 Projection: 90/42/110/.244/.346/.541/10
25) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – TOR, 1B, 27.0 – Vlad sparks a really interesting floor vs. upside debate when it comes to very early round picks. I understand the strategy of taking high floor guys with your early picks, and then going for the upside shots later on. It makes sense. And Guerrero has as high of a floor as anybody with elite contact rates (13.8% K%) and elite Hard Hit (50.7%). It resulted in a very strong season with a .292 BA and 23 homers in 156 games, which was good for 53rd overall. That is also clearly on the low end of his ability as he smashed 8 homers in 18 games in the postseason. He’s a true talent 30 homer bat with a very high BA, which is awesome, but unless he starts lifting and pulling more, that just isn’t the level of production that other elite dynasty assets can give you. I really want all category contributors with my very top picks, and because Vlad isn’t going to help much in steals, he’s already capped there. So if you aren’t going to contribute in all categories, you need to be an absolute beast in others, and taking out his 2019 season where played in 2 miniature ballparks, he’s never hit more than 32 homers. He’s average about 27-28 homers over the last 4 years. His xwOBA says he’s been unlucky, but as I laid out in the Tatis blurb, xwOBA most certainly underrates lifting and pulling, and Vlad doesn’t lift and pull with a 7.8 degree launch and 14% Air Pull%. He’s underperformed his xwOBA in his career. If he starts lifting and pulling more, he can definitely have that explosion, and if you are in leagues that devalue steals (points/6+ category leagues), then for sure he would be ranked higher in those leagues, but in 5×5, I think this is a pretty fair ranking. He’s just more BA dependent than optimal. – 2026 Projection: 96/31/105/.303/.390/.507/5
26) Yordan Alvarez – HOU, OF, 28.9 – Alvarez is the easiest buy low call in the history of buy low calls. In fact, it’s so easy of a buy low call, that he’s probably not a buy low at all, because nobody in their right mind will sell low. He hurt his hand in early May, which was originally misdiagnosed, but eventually it was diagnosed as a fracture, and it forced him to miss 3 months. He was off to a slow start before the injury, but it was purely due to poor luck as the underlying numbers were in his usual elite range, and then when he returned from the injury, he hit 3 homers with a 1.031 OPS in 19 games before hurting his ankle and ending his season. He finished the year with a .797 OPS, but it came with an elite .402 xwOBA, 94.7 MPH EV, and 16.6/14.1 K%/BB%. I mean, who is going to sell low on that? Maybe you can argue he’s injury prone and there is injury risk in the future due to his bad knees, but even that seems far too risk averse in his age 28 year old season. Maybe I can see that argument to sell a few years from now. So buy low if you can, but I doubt you can. – 2026 Projection: 91/33/96/.291/.380/.560/3
27) James Wood – WSH, OF, 23.6 – This year for Halloween I dressed up as James Wood’s 2nd half. Haunted houses, witches, vampires … they have nothing on how scary James Wood’s second half was. He put up a 40.3% K% with a .215/.293/.379 triple-slash in his final 67 games. I want to say it was just a cold streak and to trust his career .259 BA in 1,025 career PA, but I can’t help but get Oniel Cruz stuck in my head when thinking about Wood. The profiles are very similar as extremely tall men (6’7”), who have elite bat speed (76 MPH swing), and elite Hard Hit (16.3% Barrel%/94.3 MPH EV/56.3% Hard Hit%). But as we saw with Cruz this year, and as we saw with Wood’s 2nd half, the risk is that the hit tool tanks them. That is just the game when you are willing to take on some extra risk for that extra upside. They all aren’t going to be Aaron Judge. And it’s going to add some volatility year to year, and even within seasons. But you really can’t be scared off by it completely. Everyone has slumps and everyone has bad years, and when these types have slumps/bad years, it’s the BA is going to look ugly. It’s why he’s still a Top 30 dynasty asset for me even with that extra risk. He put up a .348 xwOBA in 2024 and then a .368 xwOBA in 2025. He improved his lift and pull, and while the lift and pull still isn’t great with a 6.3 degree launch and 11.3% Air Pull%, it doesn’t have to be that great when you smash the ball as hard as he does. And he improved vs. lefties, putting up a .823 OPS vs. them, which is a big deal. He’s not as good of a base stealer as optimal with 15 steals in 22 attempts, so that along with the hit tool risk is why he can’t be considered close to like a Top 10 dynasty asset, but I’m still all in on this kid. And while this isn’t Cruz’ blurb, you should stay patient with him too. Just a little bit of luck with a little bit of improvement will result in a lot of fantasy goodness. – 2026 Projection: 84/33/96/.252/.345/.482/15
28) Francisco Lindor – NYM, SS, 32.4 – Trying to predict which players are going to defeat Father Time, or at least give them a great fight, is a nearly impossible task. We can prefer certain archetypes over others, like being wary of speed first types, but really, we can’t perfectly predict whose bodies will hold up and whose will start to decline. I say that because I’ve been sitting here thinking long and hard about how much I want to bet on Lindor deep into his 30’s, and I’m not sure there is something to really hold onto that makes me want to bet big on it. He’s not a big bat speed guy (below average 71 MPH swing), he’s not a burner (slightly below average 27.4 ft/sec sprint), and he’s not a Barrel machine with a 8.8% Barrel%. The contact rates, approach and hard hit are all good, but they aren’t in the elite area where there is a huge amount of leeway for decline. It seems to me he fits more into the potentially gentle decline category, rather than the guy who keeps on being truly elite deep into his 30’s. But as I started this blurb, it feels foolish to think I can actually predict how a player will decline. Too much goes into it. And of course, that is just looking ahead. Lindor is only going to be 32 years old next year and there is no reason he shouldn’t have his 4th straight basically 30/30 season in 2026. But I think at 32 we have to start thinking about what the decline will look like, and I’m not sure I want to bet on him still being elite in his mid 30’s. He should still be good though. – 2026 Projection: 110/31/90/.269/.342/.473/30
29) Pete Alonso – BAL, 1B, 31.5 – Alonso is one of the true rocks of our game. He’s never played in less than 152 games (he’s played in all 162 the last 2 years) and he’s never hit less than 34 homers (38 homers in 2025). Underlying numbers wise, he actually had a career year in 2025 with a career high .399 xwOBA and career high by far 93.5 MPH EV. His only weakness was that he was a BA risk, and even that is now gone with a .272 BA and .288 xBA. The 75.3 MPH swing is near elite. He landed a 5 year, $155 million deal with Baltimore, and really no matter where he landed, he will once again be one of the best power hitters in the game. Simple as that. – 2026 Projection: 92/40/120/.263/.348/.519/3
30) Jazz Chisholm – NYY, 2B/3B, 28.2 – It’s all about Games Played for Jazz. I mean, it’s all about Games Played for everybody I guess, but Jazz is one of the more injury prone hitters in the game. You know I lean towards taking on more risk than average, so I’ve been high on Jazz for the last two seasons, and that has paid off in a major way with him following up his 24/40 season in 2024 with his first 30/30 season (31/31) in 2025. Here is how I closed out his Top 1,000 Blurb last off-season, “Staying healthy one season is good, but he needs to go back to back healthy seasons for me to take “injury risk” off his resume, or at least have it downplayed. If not for injury risk, Jazz has an argument for Top 15 status, so this ranking (27th overall) does factor in a bit of risk.” … and the good news is that he mostly stayed healthy in 2025, playing in the 2nd most games of his career at 130, but 130 is not quite a full season. He missed a little over a month with an oblique injury and he got banged up here and there throughout the season with various injuries. Despite going 30/30, he still finished 52nd overall on the Razzball Player Rater. A low BA is another risk that contributed to that with a .242 BA, a 27.9% K% and a 32.2% whiff%. I feel like I’ve straddled the line perfectly the last few years between his upside and his risk, and I’m going to continue to straddle that line. I can’t quite call him an elite dynasty asset despite the elite power/speed combo, but he remains in the tier right under that. – 2026 Projection: 78/28/82/.246/.330/.468/33
31) Ketel Marte – ARI, 2B, 32.6 – Marte wasn’t quite as good in 2025 as he was in 2024 (36 homers with a .932 OPS in 136 games vs. 28 homers with a .893 OPS in 126 games), and he wasn’t able to fully sustain the elite Hard Hit explosion (94 MPH EV with a 53.8% Hard Hit% vs. 90.8 MPH EV and 47% Hard Hit%), but he still solidified himself as one of the best hitters in the game. He made up for the reduced hard hit by lifting and pulling more than he ever has (14.8 degree launch with a 23.5% Air Pull%), and it actually resulted in an even better Barrel% (13.5%) and xwOBA (.400) than 2024. Combine those quality of contact metrics with an elite 14.9/11.5 K%/BB% and near elite bat speed (74.6 MPH), and you get one of the safest studs in the game at a position that has been causing dynasty manager fits for the last few years (2B). The only thing he doesn’t do is run with 4 steals, and he’s getting up there in age at 32. Marte is the safer choice over Jazz as the top 2B in dynasty, but Jazz has the upside and youth edge. – 2026 Projection: 95/31/82/.281/.371/.520/7
32) Kyle Schwarber – PHI, OF, 33.1 – You know the Baseball Gods smile down on you when you have a career year in your contract year. Soto was the chosen son last off-season, and this off-season, the torch has been passed to Schwarber. I don’t know what Kyle Tucker did mid-season to have the Baseball Gods smite him, but it must have been bad. Schwarber demolished a career high 56 homers with the career highs in EV (94.3 MPH), Barrel% (20.8% Barrel%), Launch (20.1 degrees), Air Pull% (31.1%) and Hard Hit% (59.6%) to back it up. His .414 xwOBA was 5th best in baseball behind Judge, Soto, Ohtani, and George Springer. Judge, Soto, and Ohtani are in a tier or their own above everyone else. The only other two hitters over the last few years with the ability to get in their tier has been Yordan and Acuna. That is just a reminder to treat Acuna and Yordan with the utmost respect this off-season. But back to Schwarber, we know his game well. He’s a low BA, high OBP slugger whose only risk is that the BA dips into the low .200’s, or even below the Mendoza line as he’s done twice in his career. He resigned with Philly for 5 years, $150 million, so Philly is surely betting on him hitting tons of homers deep into his 30’s, as am I. – 2026 Projection: 104/46/111/.238/.361/.520/7
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