Posted on by Michael Halpern

A Top 50 Sneak Peek of the 2021 Top 1,000 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings

Welcome to the 3rd Annual Top 1,000 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings. We start today with the first of three posts in the Sneak Peek series, which will lead up to the full release of the Top 1,000 in late January/early February. 16-team, deep roster, 5×5 category league is what I had in my mind during the process. Here is A Top 50 Sneak Peek of the 2021 Top 1,000 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings:

Click here for the 2020 Top 1,000 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings
Click here for the 2019 Top 1,000 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings

Player Name TEAM, POSITION, AGE (Years.Months on 2021 Opening Day – Months are on a scale of 0-11 … I know it is not mathematically correct, but I do all of this manually)

Projections (Hitters): R/HR/RBI/AVG/OBP/SLG/SB
(Pitchers): Wins/ERA/WHIP/K/Saves

*Prime Projections – These projections are meant to give you a general idea of what I think about a prospect’s future stat profile in a relatively good outcome scenario. I find this helpful as a quick reference to see how a prospect’s tools/skills translate to fantasy categories.

1) Ronald Acuna ATL, OF, 23.3 – I’m a glutton for homers and steals (and Chinese food), and Acuna ranks ahead of Soto in both departments. There is risk Acuna eventually turns into a 3 true outcome slugger as he whiffed at a career high 29.9% rate, pulled the ball a career high 43% of the time, launched the ball a career high 18.6 degrees, and swung at fewer pitches both in and out of the zone, which is why Juan Soto is the no doubt #1 overall pick in almost anything other than standard 5×5. 2021 Projection: 124/42/98/.271/.384/.570/30

2) Juan Soto WASH, OF, 22.5 – Career low 26.1 ft/sec sprint speed and 4.3 degree launch angle, but it didn’t stop Soto from nabbing 6 bags and cranking 13 homers in 47 games. Only thing that could stop him was a positive Covid test that delayed the start of his season until August 5th, and even that he quickly beat with 3 rapid result antigen tests and claims it was a false positive. 2021 Projection: 112/36/109/.309/.431/.596/11

3) Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 22.3 – New exit velocity King with a whopping 95.9 MPH average, knocking Aaron Judge off the throne after a 4 year run, but major improvements in K% (down 5.9% to 23.7%) is the main reason Tatis is in the conversation for the top overall pick. 2021 Projection: 108/36/101/.279/.367/.563/25

4) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 29.8 – Stole a single base on two attempts in 53 games. Still plenty fast but did slow down slightly with a career low 4.33 home plate to 1B runtime. 2021 Projection: 111/44/105/.288/.417/.603/10

5) Cody Bellinger LAD, OF/1B, 25.9 – Down-ish year mostly due to a .245 BABIP, but exit velocity did drop 1.8 MPH to 89.3 so it wasn’t purely due to bad luck. More importantly, he maintained the major Whiff% gains he made in 2019 with a 23.3% mark. Considering the shortened season and the fact his underlying numbers were more or less in line with career norms, it would be silly to sell low on Bellinger. 2021 Projection: 105/41/105/.275/.371/.575/14

6) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 28.6 – Jumped on the first pitch 24% of the time in 2020, up from 16.4% in 2019.  It just goes to show that even for the elite, you can never stop making adjustments. “If you’re not getting better, you’re getting worse.” 2021 Projection: 121/33/100/.294/.367/.536/22

7) Trea Turner WASH, SS, 27.9 – Maintained 2019’s exit velocity gains, except this year it showed up in his home run total with 12 dingers in 59 games. The added power hasn’t impacted his speed at all with the 5th fastest sprint speed in the game. On top of all that, he notched a career best 13.9% K%. He’s peaking all over our faces. 2021 Projection: 105/26/88/.297/.362/.506/34

8) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 28.6 – Increased launch angle every single year of his 6 year career which led to Ramirez crushing 17 homers in 58 games with a 23.2 degree launch angle. The power gains wouldn’t have been possible without the 2.3 MPH jump in FB/LD exit velocity, now sitting at a respectable 94.1 MPH. 2021 Projection: 105/35/103/.276/.370/.557/23

9) Christian Yelich MIL, OF, 29.4 – Strikeout rate spiked to a career high 30.8%, partly because he became a more patient hitter (career high 18.6% BB%), but also because he simply swung and missed at a career worst rate (33.6% Whiff%). Whiff% was elevated in 2019 as well (28.2% after sitting around 23% the rest of his career), so this looks to be a trend. 2021 Projection: 107/33/99/.282/.383/.546/16

10) Trevor Story COL, SS, 28.4 – Free agent after the 2021 season, meaning Story’s value could take a big hit if he doesn’t re-sign with Colorado. Of course, maybe he can DJ LeMahieu it. 2021 Projection: 107/35/92/.281/.350/.541/25

11) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 28.6 – Career bests in K%, BB%, exit velocity, and launch angle, all while stealing 8 bags in 58 games. Unlucky .268 BA (.307 xBA) kept Harper’s overall value from absolutely exploding. 2021 Projection: 106/38/104/.270/.397/.535/16

12) Francisco Lindor CLE, SS, 27.4 – Underwhelming season, and while there is nothing really setting off alarm bells in the underlying numbers, he did notch a career worst 20.4% whiff% along with a career worst 4.42 runtime to 1st. Don’t go panic selling, but it might be enough to knock Lindor out of that very elite tier. 2021 Projection: 98/30/88/.272/.341/.497/17

13) Shane Bieber CLE, RHP, 25.10 – Turned his fastball into a dominant pitch, upping the velocity 1 MPH to 94.1 MPH and spin rate 100 revolutions to 2354 revolutions per minute. It led to a 12% increase in whiff rate on the pitch. 2020 erased any doubt that Bieber is a true ace. 2021 Projection: 16/3.03/1.06/259 in 202 IP

14) Wander Franco TB, SS, 20.1 – I’m no prospect hoarder. I don’t do never ending rebuilds. I took over a perennial doormat in an 18 team league I joined last off-season and dealt off Nick Madrigal, Ian Anderson, Luis Patino, Casey Mize, DL Hall, Luis Garcia, the draft pick that turned into Jasson Dominguez, and multiple other draft picks in what led to a 2nd place finish and 2 more years of a championship compete window. “You play to win the game.” I say all this because Wander Franco is the exception to that rule. He is the type of generational prospect you stay patient with. Franco’s career 7% K% makes Vlad Jr look like a strikeout machine with a 12% mark over that same time period playing at the same levels. He’s next level special, and the floor is so high due to that innate hitting ability that he doesn’t have the normal risks associated with prospects. 2021 Projection: May-74/18/71/.276/.337/.435/8 Prime Projection: 111/32/109/.311/.494/.564/14

15) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 23.1 – Wasn’t the same after returning from a grade 1 sprain of the LCL in his right knee, slashing .361/.391/.672 in 14 games before the injury and .242/.266/.355 in 15 games after the injury. Even with the injury, he made incremental improvements in Whiff% (down 2.9% to 21.6%), FB/LD exit velocity (up 1.8 MPH to 94.7), and launch angle (up 1.6 degress to 12). 2021 Projection: 95/25/86/.285/.338/.483/17

16) Jacob deGrom NYM, RHP, 32.9 – Increased velocity for the 4th year in a row to a now incredible 99 MPH. It resulted in a career high 41% whiff% (up from 31.5% in 2019). deGrom inexplicably keeps getting better. 2021 Projection: 14/2.81/0.98/267 in 199 IP

17) Manny Machado SD, 3B, 28.9 – Complete bounce back from a down 2019. K% dropped back down to 14.6%, barrel% jumped back up to 11%, and even stolen bases ticked back up with 6 steals in 60 games . 2021 Projection: 93/34/102/.284/.360/.538/9

18) Gerrit Cole NYY, RHP, 30.7 – Homers were up (career high 1.73 HR/9) and got hit harder (exit velocity up 2.8 MPH to 90.4), but considering the small sample and strong overall numbers (2.84 ERA), I wouldn’t read too much into it. 2021 Projection: 16/3.18/1.08/265 in 198 IP

19) Alex Bregman HOU, 3B, 27.0 – It would be easy to point to the lack of cheating as the reason for Bregman’s down year, but the underlying numbers don’t really back that up. The biggest culprits seems to be luck (.254 BABIP) and his weak FB/LD exit velocity finally catching to him with only 6 homers in 42 games on the back of a meager 90.3 MPH FB/LD exit velocity. 2021 Projection: 101/29/96/.281/.395/.519/6

20) Xander Bogaerts BOS, SS, 28.6 – Perfect 8 for 8 on the base paths in 56 games is nice to see after he stole only 4 in 155 games last year. If he can maintain anything close to that pace, Bogaerts has the upside to be a top 5 fantasy player. 2021 Projection: 92/25/87/.289/.360/.505/10

21) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 23.4 – 20.2% K% in his first extended MLB action is extremely encouraging considering the strong underlying Statcast numbers (91.1 MPH exit velocity with a 14.9 degree launch) and baserunning ability (8 steals in 58 games). Tucker is a near elite dynasty asset. 2021 Projection: 87/28/91/.270/.335/.503/16

22) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 24.3 – Missed over a month with a wrist injury, but ripped it up after his return, slashing .338/.372/.581 with 5 homers and 3 steals in 18 games. He performed well in 52 post season PA too (.277/.327/.447), putting to bed any concerns about his slow start and injury. 2021 Projection: 94/25/85/.283/.341/.479/15

23) Corey Seager LAD, SS, 26.11 – Here is what I tweeted about Seager before the season (and echoed these same sentiments in my 2020 Top 1,000): “Look out for a Corey Seager power breakout: Another year removed from Tommy John & hip surgery, raised launch angle to a career high 14.1 degrees, and turns 26 in April, meaning he is entering his “man muscle” years. Good buy low in dynasty and a discount at 148 ADP in redraft.” … A power breakout is exactly what happened, as Seager’s exit velocity exploded to 93.2 MPH and he cranked 23 homers in 70 games including the playoffs.  2021 Projection: 92/30/99/.298/.361/.537/3

24) Vlad Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 22.0 – Lost over 30 pounds one month after the season ended and claimed he fell out of shape during the Covid shutdown. The major breakout didn’t happen in 2020, but power did take a step forward with a 3.1 MPH jump in exit velocity to 92.5 MPH. His speed can be measured with a sundial (as my high school coach used to love to yell at me) with a 25.3 ft/sec sprint speed, but after losing the weight this off-season, maybe he can start to turn some more of those groundballs into hits. 2021 Projection: 87/28/92/.286/.361/.501/2

25) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 24.5 – Strikeout rate ballooned to a career worst 27% which lead to a .263 BA, but he continued to absolutely demolish the ball with a career high 93 MPH exit velocity. Sprint speed dropping to a below average 26.5 ft/sec is not a good sign for his future stolen base totals. 2021 Projection: 91/32/100/.291/.338/.513/5

26) Walker Buehler LAD, RHP, 26.8 – Got off to a slow start and missed some time with a blister, but Buehler was back to his dominant self by the time the playoffs rolled around, putting up a 1.80 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 25 postseason innings. He had a 5.22 ERA in his first 6 starts of 2019 as well, so I wouldn’t sweat the slow start to this season either.  2021 Projection: 14/3.36/1.10/207 in 180 IP

27) Eloy Jimenez CHW, OF, 24.4 – Incremental improvements in K% (26.6% to 24.8%) and exit velocity (91.2 MPH to 92.4 MPH) further cements Eloy as one of the top young power hitters in the game. Improvements in plate discipline (5.3% BB%) and GB% (51.9%) will unlock his full potential. 2021 Projection: 86/35/100/.278/.331/.541/1

28) Tim Anderson CHW, SS, 27.9 – Followed up 2019 breakout by maintaining all of the gains he made along with taking another step in the power department, adding 3 MPH to his FB/LD exit velocity (93.7 MPH). 2021 Projection:  95/22/71/.290/.333/.462/19

29) Adalberto Mondesi KC, SS, 25.8 – After putting up a .440 OPS in the first 37 games, he came back from the dead in the 2nd half, slashing .376/.424/.706 with 6 homers and 16 steals in 22 games. He was coming off major labrum surgery over the off-season, so it’s not a surprise it took him a little bit to shake the rust off. Mondesi might be the most divisive player in the fantasy community right now. 2021 Projection: 83/19/74/.253/.296/.432/48

30) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 23.8 – The wheels fell off in September, posting a .136/.237/.173 triple-slash. Overall, Robert was who we thought he was, an elite power/speed combo (11 homers and 9 steals in 56 games) with contact issues (41.6% whiff%). 2021 Projection: 85/26/84/.250/.321/.468/23

31) Freddie Freeman ATL, 1B, 31.7 – Getting bit by the Covid bug must have given Freeman superpowers because he put up career bests is almost every underlying and surface stat there is. It would take too long to list them all.  2021 Projection: 105/35/109/.303/.404/.560/5

32) Aaron Nola PHI, RHP, 27.10 – Strikeout rate jumped to a career high 33.2% and brought BB% back down to 8% (spiked to 9.4% in 2019). The strong season erased any concerns after the slightly down 2019. 2021 Projection: 14/3.49/1.17/222 in 195 IP

33) Austin Meadows TB, OF, 25.11 – After being my greatest hit in 2019, Meadows turned into my biggest miss in 2020. Strikeout rate jumped to 32.9% and sprint speed tanked to 26.5 ft/sec, which are both completely out of character for his entire professional career. This leads me to believe that his struggles were largely due to catching Covid in July and never getting on track. Buy low. 2021 Projection: 87/26/83/.273/.346/.477/12

34) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 23.9 – Underwent arthroscopic knee surgery on both knees in late August. Expected to be ready to go for the start of 2021. He’s one of the most talented young hitters in the game, so the risk is still worth the reward, but the fear of chronic knee issues has to knock him down a bit. 2021 Projection: 82/31/95/.272/.361/.546/1

35) Nolan Arenado COL, 3B, 30.0 – Season was tanked by a shoulder injury that he suffered on July 29th. Was shut down in September when an MRI revealed inflammation in the AC joint and a bone bruise. Arenado battled a shoulder injury in 2018 as well, so this seems to be a recurring issue. 2021 Projection: 93/35/106/.288/.363/.552/2

36) Anthony Rendon LAA, 3B, 30.10 – Played through a left wrist injury, and while he couldn’t match his elite 2019 career year, he got back to doing Yeoman’s work with a .286/.418/.497 triple-slash, 9 homers, and a 31/38 K/BB in 52 games. 2021 Projection: 91/30/102/.290/.388/.533/3

37) Trevor Bauer FA, RHP, 30.2 – Drastically increased the spin rate on every one of his pitches (other than his changeup which he basically ditched) which resulted in a career high 36% K% and career low 6.1% BB%.  2021 Projection: 14/3.40/1.17/239 in 191 IP

38) Lucas Giolito CHW, RHP, 26.9 – Backed up 2019 breakout with an equally impressive 2020, relying mostly on his dominant fastball/changeup combo. 2021 Projection: 13/3.54/1.18/227 in 180 IP

39) Yoan Moncada CHW, 3B, 25.10 – Never fully recovered from Covid and was dealing with a lack of energy and strength all season. I’m no virologist, so I have no idea what the chances are these issues will last until 2021, but I’m going to assume a return to full health. 2021 Projection: 89/26/85/.263/.344/.475/10

40) Jack Flaherty STL, RHP, 25.6 – The Cardinals Covid outbreak made an already tough season even tougher for Cardinals players, and Flaherty was never really able to get on track with a 4.91 ERA in 40.1 IP. One thing to keep an eye on is that Flaherty’s BABIP normalized this season (.281) after sitting abnormally low the past 2 seasons. 2021 Projection: 12/3.62/1.20/214 in 184 IP

41) George Springer FA, OF, 31.6 – Put up a career best 35.9% GB% (44.6% in 2019) while also improving his K% to a career best 17.1%. It led to 14 homers in 51 games (plus 4 homers in 13 playoff games). Combined with a career year in 2019, Springer is establishing himself as a near elite hitter.  2021 Projection: 99/34/91/.272/.363/.530/6

42) Gleyber Torres NYY, SS, 24.4 – Mediocre numbers on the season (.724 OPS), but this is a pretty clear case of one extended slump tanking your numbers due to the shortened season. If there was any question, he put up a 246 wRC+ in 30 postseason at-bats. 2021 Projection: 92/30/92/.275/.357/.504/4

43) Yu Darvish CHC, RHP, 34.7 – Improved control from the 2nd half of 2019 carried over to 2020 with a career best 4.7% BB%. Also notched a career high 96.2 MPH four seamer velocity. It all resulted in Darvish moving into the very elite tier of pitchers. 2021 Projection: 15/3.27/1.09/223 in 175 IP

44) Luis Castillo CIN, RHP, 28.4 – Made incremental improvements in K% (30.5%), BB% (8.2%), exit velocity against (86 MPH), and launch angle against (2.2 degrees). 2021 Projection: 13/3.56/1.21/222 in 185 IP

45) Blake Snell TB, LHP, 28.4 – Didn’t pitch more than 5.2 innings in any of his 17 starts, culminating in the now infamous decision to pull him after a dominant 5.1 innings in Game 6 of the World Series. Biggest concern is his elbow, which required arthroscopic surgery in 2019 and a cortisone shot in Feb 2020. 2021 Projection: 12/3.48/1.24/221 in 170 IP

46) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 28.11 – Battled through a stress fracture in his right rib, a right shoulder injury and a right calf strain which limited him to 28 games. The injuries resulted in a 3.8 MPH drop in exit velocity. He has power to spare, but he has to be on the field to take advantage of it. 2021 Projection: 89/34/86/.263/.361/.541/4

47) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 26.4 – Ripped 10 dingers in September to close out the season after underwhelming in the first half. Alonso is your classic low average slugger. 2021 Projection: 88/40/103/.249/.342/.531/1

48) Brandon Woodruff MIL, RHP, 28.2 – Fastball was just as dominant in 2020 as it was in 2019, ranking 2nd in baseball behind only Marco Gonzalez. Changeup, curve, and slider all took a step forward as well. 2021 Projection: 13/3.51/1.15/205 in 170 IP

49) Zac Gallen ARI, RHP, 25.8 – Built on his 2019 breakout in 2020. BB% dropped down to 8.6%, which is nice to see after the 10.8% mark he put up in 2019 was the biggest cause for concern coming into the year. 2021 Projection: 12/3.61/1.25/202 in 170 IP

50) Tyler Glasnow TB, RHP, 27.7 – K% exploded to 38.2%. Gave back some of the gains he made in BB% in 2019 (up 3.1% to 9.2%) and got hit up for a career worst 90.4 MPH exit velocity, but most of the underlying stats show the 4.08 ERA was unlucky (3.11 xERA and 2.75 xFIP). 2021 Projection: 11/3.48/1.20/205 in 159 IP

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

A Top 100 Sneak Peek of the 2020 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

The 2020 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings Sneak Peek Series continues with the Top 100:

1) Ronald Acuna ATL, OF, 22.3 – Combination of age and stolen base upside is what separates Acuna from the pack, but a 26.3% K% presents a risk that other candidates for the top spot don’t have. In anything other than a 5×5 league (points, OBP), I would look elsewhere with the top pick. 2020 Projection: 111/37/98/.285/.367/.524/31

2) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 28.8 – Turning 29 during the 2020 season, career low 13 steal attempts, and a much younger crop of generational talent establishing themselves in 2019 are why Trout is no longer the obvious #1 pick in dynasty. I still have him #1 in redrafts. 2020 Projection: 113/46/107/.299/.442/.631/15

3) Juan Soto WASH, OF, 21.5 – Flipped hitting profile from rookie season, upping FB% to 37.2% (from 28.8%) and lowering GB% to 41.6% (from 53.7%). 97 MPH FB/LD exit velocity is 2.1 MPH higher than Trout and 1.4 MPH higher than Acuna. Soto is my #1 pick in non 5×5 dynasty leagues. 2020 Projection: 108/36/105/.296/.404/.553/10

4) Cody Bellinger LAD, 1B/OF, 24.9 – Career bests in BB% (14.4%), K% (16.4%), average exit velocity (90.7 MPH), and launch angle (17.6 degree launch). On the flip side, OPS declined every month of the season (1.397, .998, .967, .952, .918, .891, playoffs-.549). 2020 Projection: 110/43/110/.288/.383/.598/14

5) Christian Yelich MIL, OF, 28.4 – Here is what I wrote about Yelich in my 2019 Top 1,000: “… posted the lowest GB% of his career by a good margin in August and September (46% and 44%, respectively). If he can carry those gains over a full season, the power breakout may not be a complete outlier.” That is exactly what happened, with Yelich posting a 43.2% GB% and hitting a career high 44 homers. The fractured knee cap that ended his season supposedly won’t have any long term effects. 2020 Projection: 111/37/104/.309/.410/.605/20

6) Mookie Betts BOS, OF, 27.6 – As a Yankees fan, I pray to the baseball gods every night that Boston trades Mookie Betts for “can’t miss” pitching prospects. 2020 Projection: 119/33/86/.310/.402/.552/22

7) Trea Turner WASH, SS, 26.9 – Power took a big step forward, raising average exit velocity 2.5 MPH to 90.3 MPH. Remains a speedster with the 2nd fastest sprint speed in baseball, behind only Tim Locastro (Buxton is a close 3rd).  2020 Projection: 104/24/77/.293/.350/.488/41

8) Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 21.3 – With a 29.6% K% and a 6.9 degree launch angle, you can look at Tatis’ 2019 in one of two ways. Either you think he got lucky and there is serious regression coming, or you are scared at the thought of what his stats might look like when he inevitably improves on those underlying numbers. I’m in camp #2. 2020 Projection: 101/35/99/.274/.348/.531/26

9) Francisco Lindor CLE, SS, 26.4 – Small step back in K%, BB%, GB% and sprint speed, but I’m willing to write that off to his early season calf injury considering overall production remained strong. 2020 Projection: 104/32/87/.285/.349/.520/20

10) Trevor Story COL, SS, 27.4 – Carried over the major improvements he made in K% and stolen bases in 2018 into 2019. One of the premier power/speed combos in the game. 2020 Projection: 100/36/100/.283/.354/.546/22

11) Wander Franco TB, SS, 19.1 – Acuna and Soto might be old news in 2 years if Franco reaches his upside of plus to double plus all category production. He very well may be the true heir to Trout’s throne. 2020 Projection: September-13/4/9/.277/.341/.445/4 Prime Projection: 114/32/113/.316/.405/.595/19

12) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 3B, 21.0 – Modest rookie season, but make no mistake, the thunder is coming. 2020 Projection: 95/32/106/.298/.373/.538/2

13) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 23.5 – Ranked 16th overall in average exit velocity (92.1 MPH) and cut K% by 7.7% to 17%. 2020 Projection: 98/33/104/.302/.360/.549/7

14) Alex Bregman HOU, 3B, 26.0 – Gets dinged in the rankings because of the possibility of a suspension and the unknown of how much cheating improved his stats. Relatively low 92.3 MPH FB/LD exit velocity is another red flag. 2020 Projection: 103/30/101/.291/.403/.538/9

15) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 27.6 – Armageddon 1st half (.218/.308/.344) followed by a beastly 2nd half (.327/.365/.739) that was interrupted and ultimately cut short by a fractured hamate bone. Like Bregman, low FB/LD exit velocity (91.8 MPH) indicates some power downside. 2020 Projection: 98/30/93/.279/.358/.518/25

16) Nolan Arenado COL, 3B, 29.0 – Steady as they come. 40 homers with a high average. 2020 Projection: 103/39/116/.298/.375/.568/2

17) Austin Meadows TB, OF, 24.11 – When I ranked Meadows 54th overall in last year’s ranking, someone asked me what I was smoking. Apparently I was toking on salvia divinorum, aka, sage of the diviners, aka it’s a plant you smoke and then you hallucinate, because Meadows broke out with a .291 BA, 33 homers, and 12 steals. He hits it very hard, hits it in the air, has speed, and has a strong plate approach. 2020 Projection: 93/32/96/.282/.351/.531/15

18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 27.6 – Strikeout rate going in the wrong direction (26.1%), but power, speed, and walks are all in peak form. 2020 Projection: 100/36/103/.265/.381/.533/14

19) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 22.9 – Hitting profile looks mighty similar to Bryce Harper without the speed. 2020 Projection: 93/35/104/.273/.369/.542/4

20) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 27.11 – Led the league in average exit velocity every year since getting called up in 2016. Smashed 15 homers in final 33 games to salvage what was shaping up to be a mediocre season. 2020 Projection: 107/42/101/.263/.370/.545/7

21) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 22.1 – Like Tatis, the impressive triple slash (.311/..358/.571) is considerably better than the underlying numbers, but I’m betting on the underlying numbers mostly catching up to the slash line, rather than the other way around. 2020 Projection: 93/24/79/.282/.340/.481/18 Prime Projection: 118/34/95/.296/.373/.542/15

22) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 23.3 – Average exit velocity jumped 2.5 MPH to 88.8 MPH, although exit velocity on fly balls actually decreased by 0.3 MPH. It’s still a good sign that there is another level of power in here as he matures. 2020 Projection: 107/26/84/.288/.356/.490/17

23) Gerrit Cole NYY, RHP, 29.7 – I don’t factor in age with pitchers quite as much as with hitters because every pitcher is one injury away from a career altering injury. Young pitchers also haven’t proven their arm can withstand season after season of 200+ innings which makes them more risky than an older pitcher with more miles on their arm. 2020 Projection: 18/2.92/0.98/295 in 205 IP

24) Walker Buehler LAD, RHP, 25.8 – Throws the fastest cutter by a starter at 92.8 MPH (1.8 MPH ahead of 2nd, Marcus Stroman). Final hurdle to cross is how his arm responds after a career high 195 IP (including the postseason), which is a 34 IP increase from 2018. 2020 Projection: 17/3.23/1.01/230 in 191 IP

25) Jacob deGrom NYM, RHP, 31.9 – Career high velocity on all of his pitches. Upped slider and fastball usage while ditching his sinker and minimizing the curve. 2020 Projection: 14/2.86/0.99/260 in 208 IP

26) Gleyber Torres NYY, 2B, 23.4 – Exit velocities and K/BB are solid but don’t jump out at you. 17.4 degree launch angle ensures healthy power production, and I’m expecting continued improvement in all aspects of his game. 2020 Projection: 97/32/106/.283/.352/.521/4

27) Xander Bogaerts BOS, SS, 27.6 – Maintained exit velocity gains from 2018 and notched a career high 10.9% BB%. With only 6 steal attempts in 155 games, you can no longer count on him in the speed department as you build your roster. 2020 Projection: 99/28/108/.296/.369/.529/7

28) Javier Baez CHC, SS, 27.4 – Getting by with pure exit velocity and speed. 2020 Projection: 98/33/103/.278/.319/.520/13

29) Anthony Rendon LAA, 3B, 29.10 – From my 2019 Top 1,000: “With a 13.7% K% and 17.7 degree launch angle, there is potential for a monster career season lurking in here.” … The monster was unleashed and it landed him a $245 million contract. 2020 Projection: 104/32/108/.306/.382/.560/4

30) Keston Hiura MIL, 2B, 23.8 – Underlying stats profile as a low average, power hitting beast with a handful of steals. Ultimately should develop into more of a 20% strikeout hitter than the 30% he put up in 2019. 2020 Projection: 88/34/96/.268/.333/.507/11

31) Jack Flaherty STL, RHP, 24.6 – Velocity up about 1 MPH on every pitch and BB% was down 2.5%. Third year in a row posting well below average exit velocities against (86.1 MPH) gives hope the low BABIP’s (.242) is a skill. 2020 Projection: 16/3.38/1.11/229 in 194 IP

32) Shane Bieber CLE, RHP, 24.10 – Not a flamethrower but has advanced command over a 4 pitch mix. Batters were able to make some good contact against him with a 90.4 MPH average exit velocity against. Cole and Verlander both sat at 87.3 MPH for comparison. 2020 Projection: 15/3.41/1.09/220 in 195 IP

33) Yoan Moncada CHW, 3B, 24.10 – Not quite the speedster we all thought he was, but power showed up in a big way, upping exit velocity 2.3 MPH to 92.8 MPH. .315 batting average (.406 BABIP) is coming down. 2020 Projection: 96/30/89/.273/.360/.513/13

34) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 25.4 – Alonso is going to mash no matter how much Manfred loosens up those seams. 2020 Projection: 91/43/109/.263/.360/.557/1

35) Manny Machado SD, 3B/SS, 27.9 – Career worst 19.4% K% and low BABIP led to a career low .254 BA. The lack of steals was easy to predict, but now you have to worry about a mediocre average too. 2020 Projection: 92/34/102/.278/.351/.515/8

36) Eloy Jimenez CHW, OF, 23.4 – Elite exit velocity and 31 homers in 122 games proves the power wasn’t over-hyped. Has the ability to hit for both power and average when his K% comes down, and his minor league numbers suggest it will. 2020 Projection: 88/33/99/.283/.335/.530/1

37) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 22.8 – Sox have mentioned they view Robert like Eloy and we should expect an early season call up. He’s still raw at the plate, but has a power/speed combo that rivals Acuna.  2020 Projection: 63/26/68/.259/.308/.471/18 Prime Projection: 94/34/101/.277/.339/.521/25

38) Freddie Freeman ATL, 1B, 30.7 – Underlying numbers are very similar to his past two seasons when he put up 28 and 23 homers, respectively, but this season he managed to knock 38 homers. For reference, he hit 34 homers in 2016, but his exit velocity was about 2 MPH higher than 2017-2019. Freeman might be the clearest example of the impact of the juiced ball. 2020 Projection: 95/31/105/.298/.391/.543/5

39) Blake Snell TB, LHP, 27.4 – Missed two months after undergoing arthroscopic elbow surgery in July to remove loose bodies. Velocity was down on all of his pitches, but still among the hardest throwers in baseball. Bloated 4.29 ERA was at least partly due to a .343 BABIP. 2020 Projection: 13/3.37/1.18/223 in 178 IP

40) Ketel Marte ARI, 2B/OF, 26.6 – From my 2019 Top 1,000: “13.7% K%, 9.3% BB%, 88.6 MPH average exit velocity, 92 MPH on FB/LD, and 28.7 ft/sec sprint speed. If he can start lifting the ball more and add some strength as he enters his mid to late 20’s, there is a 5-category stud lurking in here.” … Marte added 1.3 MPH to his exit velocity and 5.8 degrees to his launch angle en route to a beastly 5-category season. 2020 Projection: 93/26/88/.293/.352/.512/9

41) Carlos Correa HOU, SS, 25.6 – In the midst of a power breakout but rib and back injuries limited him to only 25 games after May. A back injury tanked his 2018 season as well, so it’s a legitimate concern. 2020 Projection: 90/32/105/.283/.362/.527/3

42) Adalberto Mondesi KC, SS, 24.8 – Underwent labrum surgery on October 3rd, with a 5-6 month recovery. Major surgeries that ruin your normal off-season routine is not a recipe for a breakout season. 2020 Projection: 78/16/74/.255/.299/.422/41 Prime Projection: 93/23/86/.274/.329/.446/49

43) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/OF, 25.9 – Power and strikeouts … and strikeouts. The plan is for 1 start and 3-4 DH days per week. In weekly lineup leagues drop him down 100 spots because he can likely be viewed only as a 130 IP starter at peak. 2020 Projection: Hitting-46/17/52/.277/.349/.511/9 — Pitching-7/3.55/1.20/123 in 100 IP

44) Kris Bryant CHC, 3B/OF, 28.3 – Exit velocity is just not what it was in 2015 and 2016 when Bryant looked to be on the verge of becoming a perennial top 5 pick. I guess we’ll have to settle for merely very, very good. 2020 Projection: 110/32/80/.283/.381/.509/5

45) Matt Chapman OAK, 3B, 26.11 – Career low 21.9% K%, but a 3.6% jump in infield fly ball rate negated any possible batting average gains (.249 BA with a .270 BABIP). 2020 Projection: 105/38/96/.268/.355/.529/2

46) Mike Clevinger CLE, RHP, 29.3 – Upper back strain and sprained ankle caused Clevinger to miss almost the entire first half. Notched a career high 95.6 MPH fastball velocity, but that was on a steady decline as the season wore on. 2020 Projection: 15/3.31/1.14/222 in 190 IP

47) Stephen Strasburg WASH, RHP, 31.8 – Dominant, as usual, but he did it in a different way by upping his groundball percentage with increased sinker and curveball usage. Staying healthy all season is probably the most notable thing of all. 2020 Projection: 15/3.43/1.10/220 in 185 IP

48) Jo Adell LAA, OF, 21.0 – Elite athlete with double plus power. 32.6% K% and 0 homers in 27 games at Triple-A likely ensures at least a couple months of development time there in 2020. 2020 Projection: July-39/13/45/.250/.301/.459/6 Prime Projection: 101/37/108/.271/.353/.538/13

49) Justin Verlander HOU, RHP, 37.1 – Even at 37 years old Verlander is such a difference maker that he is worth a true elite prospect back in a trade. The cliff often doesn’t come with advanced warning, though, that is why they call it the cliff, and not the ramp.  2020 Projection: 17/3.08/1.01/270 in 208 IP

50) Max Scherzer WASH, RHP, 35.8 – Back issues held Scherzer to his lowest innings pitched total since his rookie year in 2009. He also didn’t pitch as well when he returned from the injury (4.81 ERA in 43 IP). 2020 Projection: 16/3.09/1.04/261 in 203 IP

51) Jose Altuve HOU, 2B, 29.11 – Career high K% (15%), career low stolen base total (6), and while Altuve hit a career high 31 homers, there wasn’t any significant improvements in exit velocity or flyball percentage to truly back up the power surge. 2020 Projection: 99/26/82/.292/.351/.490/13

52) JD Martinez BOS, OF, 32.7 – Best case scenario he’s Nelson Cruz and there is 7+ years of production left. Worst case scenario he’s Albert Pujols and this 32 year old season is the beginning of the end. 2020 Projection: 101/38/112/.308/.380/.570/3

53) Chris Paddack SD, RHP, 24.3 – Plus fastball/changeup combo is good enough, but continued development of the curveball can take him to the next level. 2020 Projection: 13/3.58/1.09/190 in 170 IP

54) Starling Marte PIT, OF, 31.6 – Career low 16% K%. Sprint speed is as good as ever but relying on speed as players get deeper into their 30’s is risky. 2020 Projection: 94/20/77/.289/.339/.462/28

55) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 22.4 – Sprint speed improved from below average in 2018 to above average in 2019. The power was never in question, but now there is hope the steals might transfer too. 2020 Projection: 71/24/77/.251/.325/.476/11 Prime Projection: 94/33/101/.265/.348/.513/15

56) Victor Robles WASH, OF, 22.10 – 81 MPH average exit velocity is cover your eyes bad. Even Stephen Strasburg managed to put up a 82.5. Jose Altuve has proven there is a path to strong power numbers with below average exit velocity (86.1 MPH), but Robles has to improve to reach even that level. 2020 Projection: 91/20/73/.272/.334/.439/27

57) George Springer HOU, OF, 30.6 – While his 2019 is likely a juiced ball aided career year, the strong underlying numbers don’t rule out the possibility of a repeat. 2020 Projection: 104/33/95/.280/.369/.525/7

58) Matt Olson OAK, 1B, 26.0 – Elite exit velocity power hitting beast. 2020 Projection: 93/38/105/.256/.345/.537/1

59) Giancarlo Stanton NYY, OF, 30.5 – Limited to 18 games due to a variety of injuries, but performed like himself in those games with a 100.3 MPH FB/LD exit velocity. 2020 Projection: 95/43/109/.261/.352/.546/3

60) Josh Bell PIT, 1B, 27.8 – Career high 37.3% FB% and 92.3 MPH exit velocity is evidence the power breakout is for real. 2020 Projection: 90/32/106/.273/.361/.528/1

61) Ramon Laureano OAK, OF, 25.9 – Plus power/speed combo but a 25.6% K% and 5.6% BB% shows he is not without risk. 2020 Projection: 89/27/84/.265/.334/.486/16

62) Tim Anderson CHW, SS, 26.9 – Career low 21% K% and career high 88.3 MPH exit velocity, along with a little BABIP luck, led to a breakout season, slashing .335/.357/.508 with 18 homers and 17 steals in 123 games. 2020 Projection: 90/23/72/.282/.321/.468/21

63) Patrick Corbin WASH, LHP, 30.8 – Backed up 2018’s breakout with another strong year on the back of his elite slider. Velocity up about 1 MPH on each pitch. 2020 Projection: 14/3.50/1.19/231 in 197 IP

64) Luis Severino NYY, RHP, 26.1 – Missed almost entire season with an inflamed rotator cuff and lat strain. Velocity wasn’t quite what it was in 2018, but at 96.1 MPH, that is more than enough. 2020 Projection: 13/3.55/1.18/200 in 175 IP

65) Gavin Lux LAD, 2B/SS, 22.4 – Another guy I was high on last year, ranking him 181st overall and writing, “Me thinks Lux is still being a bit underrated right now.” He isn’t underrated anymore. 2020 Projection: July-42/11/39/.272/.334/.451/7 Prime Projection: 98/28/93/.283/.356/.495/14

66) Chris Sale BOS, LHP, 31.0 – Inflammation in pitching elbow ended Sale’s season in August. Fastball was down 2 MPH and put up a career worst 4.40 ERA, but he still managed to strikeout 218 batters in 147.1 IP. 2020 Projection: 13/3.29/1.02/234 in 165 IP

67) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 19.3 – Advanced beyond his years feel to hit which he displayed at Full-A (.293 BA), High-A (.462 BA), and the Fall League (.288 BA). Add to that at least plus raw power and you have one of the most coveted prospects in baseball. ETA: Late 2021 Prime Projection: 96/35/109/.290/.368/.550/8

68) Charlie Blackmon COL, OF, 33.9 – Career low 26.7 ft/sec sprint speed doesn’t leave much hope for a stolen base bounce back (2 steals in 2019), but he has never hit the ball harder with a career high 88.5 MPH exit velocity. 2020 Projection: 106/33/84/.307/.362/.539/6

69) Luis Castillo CIN, RHP, 27.4 – Fireballing groundball pitcher with the most valuable changeup in baseball. 2020 Projection: 13/3.63/1.19/214 in 188 IP

70) Lucas Giolito CHW, RHP, 25.9 – Fastball velocity jumped 1.8 MPH to 94.6 MPH and changeup became an elite pitch. Grandal and his plus pitch framing should counteract any regression concerns. 2020 Projection: 13/3.69/1.17/226 in 185 IP

71) MacKenzie Gore SD, LHP, 21.1 – Potential for 4 plus pitches with plus control. Destroyed Hi-A with a silly pitching line of 1.02/0.71/110/20/ in 79.1 IP. 2020 Projection: July-6/3.82/1.26/83 in 78 IP Prime Projection: 17/3.22/1.03/240 in 200 IP

72) Anthony Rizzo CHC, 1B, 30.8 – As consistent as they come. 2020 Projection: 91/30/97/.288/.381/.513/5

73) Marcus Semien OAK, SS, 29.6 – Major breakout in basically every underlying stat and surface stat you look at. Some regression is likely, but the breakout was real. 2020 Projection: 107/29/76/.279/.360/.499/11

74) Eugenio Suarez CIN, 3B, 27.7 – Online IQ test question: What is the next number in this sequence – 4, 13, 21, 26, 34, 49, _? That is Suarez’ season home run totals since entering the league. My fake online IQ of 144 tells me Barry Bonds home run record might be in jeopardy next season. 2020 Projection: 84/32/98/.266/.352/.523/3

75) Joey Gallo TEX, OF, 26.4 – Has 281 hits in his career and 110 of them are homers. 38.4% K% still makes Gallo a huge average risk, but he also led the league in exit velocity on FB/LD at 101.2 MPH. 2020 Projection: 94/45/96/.234/.356/.549/4

76) Michael Conforto NYM, OF, 27.1 – Struggles vs. lefties is only true blemish (.701 OPS). 2020 Projection: 93/30/92/.263/.370/.502/5

77) Max Kepler MIN, OF, 27.2 – From my 2019 Top 1,000: “Posted career bests in K% (15.7%), BB% (11.6%), FB% (46.2%), and exit velo (89.5 MPH/93.9 MPH FB/LD). Kepler already broke out but it didn’t show up in his surface stats last year.” … It showed up this year, cranking 36 homers in 134 games while maintaining most of the underlying gains he made in 2018. 2020 Projection: 93/31/89/.266/.349/.502/3

78) Max Muncy LAD, 1B/2B/3B, 29.7 – Put any playing time concerns to rest with 589 PA, although the logjam isn’t breaking up anytime soon with Gavin Lux now trying to force his way into the lineup. 2020 Projection: 97/34/96/.254/.370/.513/3

79) Jorge Soler KC, OF, 28.1 – Huge power breakout, upping exit velocity 3.1 MPH and ripping 48 homers in 162 games. 2020 Projection: 85/33/98/.261/.350/.520/2

80) Eddie Rosario MIN, OF, 28.6 – Continued his free swinging ways (3.7% BB%) with power (32 homers) and a good feel to hit (14.6% K%). 2020 Projection: 84/28/92/.283/.316/.489/6

81) Jonathan Villar MIA, 2B/SS, 28.11 – Played in all 162 games, compiling 24 homers, 111 runs and 40 steals. Miami moving their fences in will cushion the blow a little bit from leaving Camden. 2020 Projection: 85/16/61/.263/.331/.430/34

82) Tyler Glasnow TB, RHP, 26.7 – Forearm strain knocked out most of Glasnow’s breakout season, but his velocity was fully back when he returned in September. His newfound control did not return, with 8 walks in 19.1 IP (including postseason). 2020 Projection: 10/3.58/1.19/185 in 150 IP

83) Aaron Nola PHI, RHP, 26.10 – Career best K/9 (10.19) and career worst BB/9 (3.56). Exit velocity against jumped to 88.5 MPH after being in the 85’s from 2016-2018. 2020 Projection: 14/3.66/1.21/221 in 205 IP

84) Rhys Hoskins PHI, 1B, 27.0 – Down-ish year when everyone else was experiencing a career year, but the homer/walk profile remains the same. 2020 Projection: 96/35/92/.250/.371/.512/3

85) Lourdes Gurriel Jr. TOR, OF, 26.6 – Took power to another level with 20 homers in 84 games by raising launch angle 3.7 degrees and increasing FB/LD exit velocity 3.2 MPH. 2020 Projection: 86/30/94/.270/.323/.492/8

86) Corey Seager LAD, SS, 25.11 – Career high 39.2% FB% didn’t result in a power breakout this season, but it portends good things for the future considering he was able to maintain strong exit velocity and plate approach numbers. 2020 Projection: 94/27/92/.281/.343/.496/1

87) Andrew Benintendi BOS, OF, 25.9 – 6.8% K% increase led to a down year across the board. Also has been getting slower every year. I feel more comfortable about a power rebound than I do a stolen base rebound. 2020 Projection: 93/21/86/.279/.357/.446/11

88) Nick Senzel CIN, OF, 24.8 – Underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in late September which puts his availability for opening day in question. Speed is his best asset right now, but still profiles as an above average all category contributor at peak. 2020 Projection: 74/16/66/.268/.333/.440/19 Prime Projection: 94/24/83/.278/.346/.462/23

89) Jarred Kelenic SEA, OF, 20.8 – Performed well across 3 levels of the minors in his first full season of pro ball, culminating with a 133 wRC+ at Double-A. Above average to plus potential in every category. ETA: 2021 Prime Projection: 96/25/87/.283/.351/.485/16

90) Clayton Kershaw LAD, LHP, 32.0 – Fastball velocity did not rebound to pre-2018 levels and actually lost another 0.9 MPH, but the slider is as good as ever. 2020 Projection: 14/3.38/1.09/188 in 180 IP

91) Noah Syndergaard NYM, RHP, 27.7 – Much improved changeup became his best secondary pitch but his slider took a step back, losing 2.2 MPH. 2020 Projection: 3.73/1.22/196 in 190 IP

92) Brandon Woodruff MIL, RHP, 27.2 – Third most valuable fastball in baseball behind only Cole and Flaherty. 2020 Projection: 11/3.74/1.20/190 in 165 IP

93) Jesus Luzardo OAK, LHP, 22.6 – Shoulder injury limited Luzardo to just 58 IP at a variety of levels (Rk, Hi-A, Triple-A, MLB playoffs), but he dominated at each stop with 3 plus pitches (mid 90’s fastball, curve, and change). He has a chance to be special, but with a career high of 109 IP, it remains to be seen if he can stay healthy and produce for 180+ IP. 2020 Projection: 10/3.68/1.19/160 in 142 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.39/1.11/213 in 183 IP

94) Julio Urias LAD, LHP, 23.8 – Announced that he will likely join the rotation in 2020. Ranked first overall in average exit velocity against at 83.2 MPH and fastball jumped 2.1 MPH to 95.2 MPH, including during the starts he made early in the season. 2020 Projection: 11/3.68/1.21/139 in 135 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.39/1.11/198 in 182 IP

95) Frankie Montas OAK, RHP, 27.0 – Found that legitimate third pitch by adding a splitter that he threw 18.2% of the time. With a plus fastball/slider combo already in tow, Montas broke out with a pitching line of 2.63/1.12/103/23 in 96 IP. 80-game PED suspension cut his season short, but he did return for 1 start in September with no noticeable performance decline. 2020 Projection: 13/3.64/1.21/185 in 170 IP

96) Gary Sanchez NYY, C, 27.4 – Elite power hitter and does it from the scarce catcher position. On the downside, catchers are always more banged up and at risk of shortened careers. It’s a give and take. 2020 Projection: 69/32/83/.252/.333/.520/0

97) Marcell Ozuna FA, OF, 29.5 – Low BABIP (.259) spoiled what could have been a huge season as Ozuna reached a career high 12 steals and 11.3% BB%. If he can repeat those gains in 2020, the upside is there for him to blow up. 2020 Projection: 82/31/93/.268/.332/.500/6

98) David Dahl COL, OF, 26.0 – Another season shortened by injury, this time by a high ankle sprain that ended his year in early August. .386 BABIP covered up a weak 110/28 K/BB in 100 games, but he displayed an above average power/speed combo and has the raw tools to take his game to the next level. 2020 Projection: 86/23/83/.271/.329/.480/9

99) Amed Rosario NYM, SS, 24.4 – Continues to get stronger, raising his exit velocity 1.9 MPH to a well above average 89.2 MPH, while maintaining his plus speed and good feel to hit. 91.2 MPH FB/LD exit velocity will have to improve in order to take the next step. 2020 Projection: 87/18/79/.283/.322/.446/22

100) Byron Buxton MIN, OF, 26.3 – In the midst of a mini breakout before a shoulder injury ended his season, which required labrum surgery in September with a 5-6 month timetable. The underlying skills (95 MPH FB/LD exit velo, 19.5 degree launch angle, and 30.3 foot per second sprint speed) are there to become a power/speed beast, even if it takes him into his late 20’s to truly put it all together. 2020 Projection: 83/23/76/.267/.321/.475/26

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

March 2019 Top 100 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking: 1-25 (w/ new blurbs, updated rankings, and slightly updated projections)

Things change fast in the prospect world. Even during the off-season these lists can be fluid. Now that we’ve actually laid eyes on many of the 2019 versions of these prospects, and have the first indication of how their parent clubs view them fitting in on the future roster, I decided to update the first 100 of my 2019 Top 472 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking. Here is the March 2019 Top 100 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking: 1-25 (w/ new blurbs, updated rankings, and slightly updated projections):

CLICK HERE FOR 26-50
CLICK HERE FOR 51-75
CLICK HERE FOR 76-114 (PODCAST)

Click the below links for my previous off-season content:
2019 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
2019 Top 472 Dynasty Baseball Prospect Rankings
11 Dynasty Baseball Rules to Live By
2020 Top 90 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (1st Edition)
The Dynasty Baseball Rundown (2/24/2019)

1) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 3B, 20.0 – The Zion Williamson of baseball. Both are fat, dominant, and forced to play for peanuts. Let’s just hope Vlad doesn’t go the way of Zion and injure himself before making it to the big stage. ETA: Mid April 2019 Projection: 74/23/77/.294/.365/.502/5  Prime Projection: 103/40/118/.325/.420/.616/5

2) Eloy Jimenez CHW, OF, 22.4 – No news is good news. 2019 Projection: 61/25/69/.281/.338/.504/1 Prime Projection: 92/42/109/.306/.377/.563/1

3) Victor Robles WASH, OF, 21.10 – With Bryce Harper officially signing with Philly, any small chance he could have returned to Washington and stole Robles’ playing time is now gone. Robles is 3 for 11 with 1 homer, 2 steals and a 1.036 OPS thus far in spring. He’s ramping up to be a 5-category stud in short order. 2019 Projection: 84/16/71/.272/.327/.430/24 Prime Projection: 104/21/75/.296/.370/.477/32

4) Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 20.3 – Murdering spring pitching with 2 homers and a 1.295 OPS in 14 at-bats. Adding Machado to all of the young talent that is ready to break through on San Diego’s roster means there is at least a chance they are competitive enough to make it worth their while to call Tatis up earlier than originally planned. 2019 Projection: 33/10/39/.247/.318/.438/7 Prime Projection: 92/34/108/.273/.362/.526/16

5) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 21.4 – Will Houston let Tucker go through some growing pains if necessary considering all of their other options? I don’t know the answer, but my guess is that they are a smart enough organization to allow it … or they will trade him for starting pitching before he marinates too long in the minors. 2019 Projection: 42/12/47/.250/.320/.450/7 Prime Projection: 92/31/101/.278/.371/.518/10

6) Wander Franco TB, SS, 18.1 – Looking at my prime projection for Franco he could easily be ranked #1 on this list, but I’m just not in the business of trading my top prospects who are about to break into the bigs for the next big thing in rookie ball/A-Ball. It just seems like you will constantly be running in circles. ETA: 2021 Prime Projection: 110/30/110/.310/.395/.587/18

+1 (7) Nick Senzel CIN, 3B, 23.9 – Cincinnati seems serious about using Senzel in centerfield, and he now has a real chance of breaking camp with the big league club. I bumped him up over Lewis because of the new path to playing time. 2019 Projection: 66/14/64/.270/.330/.440/10 Prime Projection: 93/24/91/.288/.360/.484/13

8) Royce Lewis MIN, SS, 19.10 – Has been sidelined with a mild oblique strain. Injury expert, and Twins current manager Rocco Baldelli said, “That’s something we are going to work through and we’re not overly concerned as we sit here right now. It is something to take note of as we go forward.” You don’t want the guy who never got hurt managing the grind of a long season, you want the guy who was always hurt. Bold prediction: Minnesota is one of the least injured teams in baseball with Rocco in town. ETA: 2021 Prime Projection: 104/23/87/.293/.351/.475/25

9) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 21.1 – Baseball America says Bo Bichette has average speed. Keith Law says he has above average speed. Fangraphs puts a 45 grade on it. Prospects Live says he has plus speed. Maybe Bichette binged on the never ending pasta bowl at Olive Garden the day Baseball America and Fangraphs were in attendance. Or maybe he has inconsistent speed? Is that even possible? I really wish the Statcast data on minor leaguers became public. Can we get a petition going for that or something? ETA: Late 2019 Prime Projection: 92/25/89/.289/.358/.493/23

10) Jo Adell LAA, OF, 20.0 – If this were a pure fantasy upside list, Adell would rank 3rd behind Wander Franco (#1) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (#2). You can learn to strike out less with experience, but it’s much harder to get considerably faster as you get older. ETA: Late 2020 Prime Projection: 94/37/107/.265/.348/.540/14

11) Forrest Whitley HOU, RHP, 21.6 – I’m tempted to move Whitley higher but I just can’t part with my stud hitters for a pitching prospect, even one as good as Whitley. If you don’t have the aversion to pitching prospects that I have, he would easily be top 5 on this list. 2019 Projection: 7/3.75/1.23/102 in 85 IP Prime Projection: 18/3.25/1.07/240 in 210 IP

+5 (12) Alex Reyes STL, RHP, 24.7 – With Carlos Martinez likely moving back to the bullpen, it gives me more confidence Reyes will find himself in the starting rotation sooner rather than later. He’s scheduled to make his spring debut sometime this week, and I’m guessing he is about to remind all of us what all the hype was about. 2019 Projection: 7/3.71/1.28/136 in 110 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.32/1.23/221 in 185 IP

13) Brendan Rodgers COL, SS, 22.8 – With Arenado locked up long term, Garrett Hampson looking like he will have the first crack at the 2B job, and there still being some rawness to his plate approach, I can’t help but think it might not be the smoothest road ahead for Rodgers’ path to making a serious impact on your fantasy squad. ETA: Late 2019 Prime Projection: 83/28/95/.284/.339/.489/5

14) Keston Hiura MIL, 2B, 22.8 – Going 1 for 11 so far this spring doesn’t allow for the Twitter GIF hype machine to take effect in all its glory. The Mike Moustakas signing also puts a damper on his chance of forcing his way into the lineup. ETA: Late 2019 Prime Projection: 92/23/87/.287/.350/.476/13

15) Alex Kirilloff MIN, OF, 21.5 – I was curious what the origin of the name Kirilloff was. I didn’t find it, but I did end up in an internet black hole about surname numerology. Here is the Talent Analysis of Kirilloff by expression number 8: “You have the power and potential to achieve great things. It is both your challenge and your birthright to gain dominion over a small part of the earth. Whatever your enterprise, you strive to be the best and most successful in your field. You are highly competitive and will not rest until you are satisfied that you have bypassed the opposition. You enjoy challenges and rivalry.” Damn, pretty spot on. Maybe there is something to this surname numerology after all. Let me check the Talent Analysis of my surname, Halpern: “Yours is the most highly charged Expression number of all. You are like a lightning rod, attracting powerful ideas, intuitions, and even psychic information like unpredictable bolts. You are a powerful presence without any awareness on your part of having personal power. You are a channel for higher vibrations. But in order to be emotionally and psychologically at peace, you must learn to control that flow of energy. You possess a bridge between the unconscious and the conscious.” Fuuuuuck … my website name is pretty new agey and I am into going inward with meditation. Let’s move on before I start buying into this nonsense. ETA: Late 2020 Prime Projection: 93/28/96/.292/.348/.531/4

16) Tyler O’Neill STL, OF, 23.9 – O’Neill’s spring numbers are almost too on the nose, going 2 for 12 with 2 homers, a .167 BA and 1.000 OPS. I looked up the Talent Analysis of O’Neill, and it just says, “Tyler smash.” 2019 Projection: 31/10/33/.238/.300/.470/4 Prime Projection: 88/35/100/.255/.339/.510/10

17) Brent Honeywell TB, RHP, 24.0 – Honeywell’s Twitter account is now locked. I guess it has something to do with him getting suspended 4 games in 2017 for tweeting his frustration over not being called up. If you tweet a suspendable offense from a locked account do you still get suspended? I feel like this falls under the eternal philosophical question of, “if a tree falls in the woods and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?” 2019 Projection: 5/4.30/1.34/75 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.33/1.13/205 in 190 IP

+4 (18) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 24.4 – Only a dumb franchise wouldn’t hold their top prospects down for a few weeks to accrue an extra year of service time, so although Todd Frazier and Jed Lowrie are out with injuries, I’m definitely guessing Alonso breaks camp with the MLB club. 2019 Projection: 64/27/78/.243/.320/.464/1 Prime Projection: 83/34/101/.258/.339/.508/1

+5 (19) Garrett Hampson COL, 2B, 24.6 – Looking better and better to win near everyday at-bats in Colorado and possibly gain multi position eligibility along the way. Hampson has seen time all over the field, and is off to a blazing start this spring, going 5 for 11 with 2 homers and 3 steals. 2019 Projection: 73/8/58/.278/.335/.412/28 Prime Projection: 94/14/65/.291/.366/.449/35

20) Jesus Luzardo OAK, LHP, 21.6 – Luzardo was electric in his 2nd spring outing, striking out 3 of the 7 batters he faced. It had his pitching coach buzzing, “He’s got unbelievable stuff. In my opinion, this guy is going to be an elite pitcher in the big leagues. The fastball is electric, the changeup is really, really good, and he’s got an exploding breaking ball.” Usually teams try to keep expectations in check, but Oakland is so desperate for starting pitching they can’t help but be excited. Luzardo’s got a real shot of spending all season with the big league club. 2019 Projection: 8/3.94/1.28/116 in 130 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.38/1.15/198 in 195 IP

+20 (21) Chris Paddack SD, RHP, 23.3 – From the moment I first started writing about prospects I was always higher on plus change-up guys than the big boys in the industry, and was actually hyping up Paddack after his very first starts in 2016. That’s why I regret getting cold feet over the still developing curveball in my January prospect ranking, and while being ranked #41 is still very good for a pitcher in my rankings, the mid 90’s fastball and elite change-up deserved more respect. 2019 Projection: 4/3.81/1.24/73 in 68 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.41/1.12/203 in 188 IP

22) Michael Kopech CHW, RHP, 22.11 – Started throwing in February as he continues to recover from Tommy John surgery. We always focus on the physical aspect of the game, but like Yogi Berra said, “Baseball is 90 percent mental and the other half is physical.” Here is a great article on how Kopech handles the mental side of the game, which alludes to meditation being at least one tool in his arsenal. ETA: 2020 Prime Projection: 17/3.45/1.21/240 in 200 IP

23) Taylor Trammell CIN, OF, 21.6 – Trammell’s elite athletisism and plus power-speed combo get talked about a ton, but to stick with this mental aspect of the game theme, his elite character and leadership qualities don’t get mentioned often enough. He won his high school’s top leadership award and earned a 3.4 GPA. Reds manager, David Bell, recently said, “We’ve really enjoyed having him in camp. The interaction and conversations. He’s really a pleasure to be around. He’s a hard worker, really talented. He seems comfortable out there. He’s played well. More than anything, it’s fun getting to know him.” ETA: Late 2020 Prime Projection: 92/18/73/.266/.344/.452/24

24) Carter Kieboom WASH, SS, 21.7 – 4 for 10 with 2 doubles and a 1/3 K/BB. Doesn’t have huge power or speed upside, but is a safe bet to be a strong all category contributor. ETA: 2020 Prime Projection: 92/25/86/.280/.366/.485/9

25) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 21.9 – You don’t think billion dollar major league baseball organizations have any strategies when it comes to manipulating the media, do you? Nah, probably not. That’s why when they tell you there is nothing to see here with Houston’s blocked, star 1B prospect, you should probably believe them and drop Alvarez way, way down your rankings. It wouldn’t be because every team is going to ask for him in trade negotiations this upcoming season, is it? Nah, that couldn’t be it. Who needs big sluggers these days anyway? ETA: 2020 Prime Projection: 82/29/98/.268/.354/.505/2

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Posted on by Michael Halpern

The Dynasty Baseball Rundown (2/24/19)

Baseball is back! And with the super fun way the rules are set up in MLB, now is the only time to watch the best young players compete in MLB uniforms and in High Definition on your television screen. When the games start to count, you can watch them “work on their defense” in grainy footage on your laptop, although MiLB.tv is claiming more games will be available in high quality video this season. We shall see. Here is The Dynasty Baseball Rundown (2/24/19):

Click the below links for my previous off-season content:
2019 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
2019 Top 472 Dynasty Baseball Prospect Rankings
11 Dynasty Baseball Rules to Live By
2020 Top 90 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (1st Edition)

Yoan Moncada CHW, 3B/2B – Writing about Moncada brings back memories to the very first Rundown I wrote back on April 11, 2016. It was a simpler time back then, when doing a write-up like this was a novelty and there weren’t 1,000 other websites in the fantasy prospect game. Other than Baseball America’s prospect hot sheet, my fantasy prospect rundown was just about the only other game in town, and definitely the only fantasy slanted one. I like to think I helped inspire the boom in prospect and fantasy prospect coverage which transpired very shortly after that first rundown hit the wire, and while the landscape is more competitive, dynasty baseball fans deserved the content explosion. Watching the community build from the ground up has been awesome. As for Moncada, he went 2 for 3 with a run, RBI, and K. Adding him in the rundown was more about bringing this thing full circle than for his performance, but also to remind you that he is still a future stud despite his lukewarm MLB numbers thus far.

Pete Alonso NYM, 1B – Pete “don’t call me Peter” Alonso blasted a mammoth homer to center field off a 94 MPH Touki Toussaint fastball. If he keeps this up, he can make us all call him P-Diddy for all I care.

Willie Calhoun TEX, DH – The re-motivated Calhoun lost 24 pounds this off-season by not eating after 7:30 pm and not playing late night video games. I cut down on video games in my early 20’s too, which resulted in me playing more Baseball Mogul on my computer. I don’t know, it felt like a win at the time. Being that Calhoun was already a relatively small guy, I hope dropping that weight doesn’t negatively impact his power at all. He went 0 for 4 to kick things off in the DH spot, and was one of the few players around baseball to get a full game of at-bats.

Byron Buxton MIN, OF – 2 for 2 with a homer and 5 RBI. He was atrocious in the majors last year and wasn’t all that hot in the minors either, so any glimpse of dominance is a good sign in my book.

Yusniel Diaz BAL, OF – Smacked a 2 run homer to left field on a swing where he wasn’t even completely on balance. Diaz looked like an absolute beast at the plate too, and while I gave him a prime projection of 23 homers, I’m thinking even that might be too low.

Cedric Mullins BAL, OF – Set the table going 2 for 2 with 2 runs, a walk and a stolen base. Don’t be surprised if this is common practice for Mullins during the season. He’s still being underrated.

Enyel De Los Santos PHI, RHP – 2 IP with 4 K’s, 0 BB and 0 ER. He isn’t going to crack the opening day rotation, but he has some nasty stuff, and when injuries/ineffectiveness inevitably hits the Phillies starters, you should scoop Enyel before it’s too late. Adonis Medina pitched a clean inning in this game too, with 1 strikeout and a fastball that reached 96 MPH.

Max Schrock STL, 2B – 3 for 4 with a homer, 2 runs, 4 RBI, and 0 K’s. Somewhere far, far away (Canada), in a windowless office deep in the bowels of the stadium with a single fluorescent light bulb overhead, Carson Cistulli is smiling. Or at least that’s how I imagine it anyway.

Sandy Alcantara MIA, RHP – Will need a strong spring to lock down a rotation spot, and Alcantara showed well in his first outing, going 2 IP of scoreless ball with 3 K’s, 1 BB, and 1 hit. He hit 98 MPH on the gun, and was generally in control of his plus stuff.

Adalberto Mondesi KC, SS/2B – Possibly the most divisive player in fantasy baseball this season, Mondesi opened the spring going 2 for 2 with 2 runs scored. He’s going to be one of the most fun players to follow all year … or one of the most depressing.

Kris Bryant CHC, 3B – 2 for 2 with a dinger. Bryant was feeling good about himself after the game too, basically telling all of his doubters to piss off and how the negative chatter only motivated him coming into this season. Not gonna lie, I’m a little concerned about trading him away in my hometown dynasty league for Joey Gallo, Bo Bichette, and Garrett Hampson. I needed the haul to kick start my rebuild, but I’m starting to sweat a bit.

Corey Ray MIL, OF – 2 for 3 with a homer and more importantly 0 strikeouts. Considering he is the former 5th overall pick in the draft and coming off a season where he hit 27 homers and stole 37 bases, the hype around Ray is mighty quiet.

Gleyber Torres NYY, 2B/SS – Smoothly lifted a homer to dead center field. With The Boss’ sons now pinching pennies, Gleyber may end up the Yanks long term SS if they don’t pay up for Didi next off-season.

Michael Chavis BOS, 3B – Scorched a frozen rope the opposite way for an impressive homer. Chavis has one of the quickest and most powerful bats in the minors.

Nick Madrigal CHW, 2B – 1 for 3 with a strikeout. Only mentioning him because I’m just shocked he struck out.

Taylor Ward LAA, 3B – 1 for 3 with a grand slam. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ward snuck his way into legitimate playing time season, and would keep an eye on him in deeper leagues.

Shed Long SEA, 2B – 1 for 3 with a bomb to dead center. He’s blocked right now, but if Seattle continues to sell off during the season, Long has a chance to put up some fantasy friendly stat lines.

Colton Welker COL, 3B – In his first career MLB (spring training) at-bat, Welker blasted a 2 run homer off a 79 MPH curveball. I’ve loved his swing for a long time now. Sam Hilliard knocked a homer in this game too

Jake Faria TB, RHP – After an awful 2018 it was nice to see Faria look crisp in the early going, throwing a perfect 1.2 innings with 3 strikeouts and his fastball reaching 93 MPH.

Chance Sisco BAL, C – Sisco is trying to nail down Baltimore’s starting catcher role, both for this season and the future. He made a strong opening argument yesterday, going 1 for 1 with a homer and a walk. He always had more raw power than he showed in the minors, so hopefully this is just the start of things to come.

Fernando Romero MIN, RHP – 1 IP with 2 K’s. Romero is in that hype-less prospect-ish void where he isn’t quite a major leaguer yet, but has also graduated from prospect status. Regardless of the role, Romero is ready and has the stuff to make an impact in fantasy leagues this year.

Ramon Urias STL, 2B – Luis Urias‘ older brother. Ramon raked in the Mexican League before slashing .300/.356/.516 with 13 homers and a 58/24 K/BB split between Double-A and Triple-A in 2018. He continued to impress yesterday going 2 for 4 with a dinger. St. Louis has about a dozen underrated infielders in the majors and minors, so who knows if he can find playing time.

Derek Fisher HOU, OF – 0-3 with 2 K’s. He is going to need to play better than this to force his way into an overstuffed Houston organization.

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Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)