Posted on by Michael Halpern

Los Angeles Dodgers 2026 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

It’s time to give the back to back World Series Champions their due on the Brick Wall. Sure they “buy” their championships, but I am a Yankees fan who grew up in the 90’s, so who am I to judge? And they also might be the smartest organization in baseball and the best developmental organization in baseball, so it feels so cheap to just say they “buy” their rings. They deserve our respect. Make sure to check out the Strategy/Thoughts section below for my take on the Edward Cabrera trade and Bregman signing. The Patron is also popping off left and right with big drop after big drop, so give that a gander too. Here is the Los Angeles Dodgers 2026 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

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Pitchers

Roki Sasaki – LAD, RHP, 24.5 – The psychic world is fickle. It’s not like the physical world where you can be exact. It comes in glimpses, fragments, and when I went into a deep meditative state last off-season to Predict the 2026 Top 50 Prospects, I was getting visions of Roki Sasaki still being on that list. I trusted those visions and predicted, “I don’t want to believe it either, but Sasaki will feel elbow soreness in May, hit the IL, and then succumb to Tommy John surgery with an internal brace procedure after throwing 33.2 IP in the majors.” … The way it actually played out is that Sasaki did in fact hit the IL in May after throwing 34.1 IP with a shoulder impingement. He pitched just 36.1 IP on the season, which means that in fantasy leagues that use 50 IP as the threshold, he is back on prospects lists in 2026. My prediction wasn’t exact, but I mean, eerily close. I even scare myself sometimes. The part I really didn’t predict is how bad he would look. He put up a 4.46 ERA, 5.74 xERA, and a 17.4/13.7 K%/BB%. He put up a 6.10 ERA with a 20.0/13.7 K%/BB% in 20.2 IP at Triple-A. Sure he was better in the playoffs with a 0.84 ERA in 10.2 IP, but it came with a 14.0/11.6 K%/BB%. There is no way I look at that K/BB and go all is forgiven. The velocity was up in the playoffs, but that came in very short outings. There was one silver lining in the entire season, and that was that the splitter was good, not great, with a 37.2% whiff% and .253 xwOBA. He was straight up atrocious otherwise. Nothing translated from Japan. The Dodgers say they are going to put him back into the rotation in 2026 and they have a plan to fix him/teach him how to succeed in MLB, but I’m not going back in on this too hard. Just look at that K/BB in the playoffs one more time, and that was supposed to be the glimmer of hope for next year. Look at what he did at AAA. I don’t see it. It seems there is a very high chance he ends up back in the bullpen in 2026. Of course there is still upside and I can’t imagine he’s worse the 2nd time around, but he’s not a buy low for me. – 2026 Projection: 6/4.27/1.35/106 in 120 IP

Emmet Sheehan – LAD, RHP, 26.5 – Betting on Tommy John/internal brace returnees is a total roll of the dice. We have no idea which ones are going to come back fully healthy and which ones aren’t, but one thing I noticed in 2025, is that you can tell which ones are fully back extremely quickly. Conventional wisdom would say we should give guys time to shake the rust off, but that wasn’t the case at all in 2025. The guys who came back and looked great from literally their first rehab outing, were the guys who kept on looking great. And the ones who looked rusty out of the gate, more or less remained rusty all season. I still buy into the conventional wisdom somewhat, but I think it’s worth mentioning that in practice it didn’t work that way at all. And it’s a lesson I’m taking with me for 2026. Basically buy hard on a guy who dominates in their first rehab outing, and at the very least don’t buy on a guy who doesn’t look back to 100%. And I have to say, I was all over Sheehan the second he started dominating at Triple-A, calling him a major target over and over again and ranking him extremely high on the in season dynasty rankings from mid-season on. He was bordering on elite pitching prospect status before the injury, and he immediately re-established that level with a 2.18 xFIP and 45.6/2.5 K%/BB% in 19.2 IP at Triple-A in his rehab outings. It’s hard to break into LA’s rotation for a young pitcher, but LA clearly saw what I was seeing and gave them no choice. And when he did get that shot, he looked like a young ace with a 2.82 ERA and 30.6/7.6 K%/BB% in 73.1 IP (I’m trying my best to ignore the horrific post-season because I have no idea what to do with that). The 95.6 MPH fastball was a bat missing weapon with a 26.5% whiff%, the slider was straight elite with a .198 xwOBA and 43.6% whiff%, and the changeup was excellent with a .200 xwOBA and 30.2% whiff%. The control is above average and the 32.9% whiff% is in the elite of the elite for a starter. There is nothing not to like (other than the playoffs, woof). Sheehan is one of the most exciting young pitchers in the game. He ranked 78th overall on the Top 200 Sneak Peek of the 2026 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). – 2026 Projection: 12/3.37/1.14/171 in 145 IP

Hitters

Andy Pages – LAD, OF, 25.4 – I find it hard not to mention that Pages had one of the worst playoff performances I can remember with a negative 45 wRC+ and .078 BA in 55 PA. I don’t think it’s going to impact how the Dodgers view him going into 2026, but there were also signs that he got lucky in 2025 with a below average .315 xwOBA vs. .332 wOBA. He’s a contact (21.5% whiff%)/lift (16.9 degree launch)/pull guy (20.1% Air Pull%), which can routinely beat Statcast, but the 37.2% Hard Hit% makes the profile a bit precarious, and we saw how bad it can look in the playoffs. It was even cooling off in the regular season with a .696 OPS and 34.2% Hard Hit% in his final 70 games. The 4.6% BB% and 33.2% Chase% is not giving hope that his big walk rates from the minors are all of a sudden going to show up in the majors. I really thought I was going to like Pages a lot coming into this blurb, but I’m coming away more concerned than I am excited. Don’t get me wrong, he’s coming off an excellent year where he went .272/27/14, and LA showed their faith in him during the season even when he was slumping, which is big to see because they are sometimes quick to pull the plug with young players. A lot of that faith is how good he is on defense, including CF. His defensive ability is a big reason I’m staying high, and so is the fact his MLB career is just getting started, so if he can improve that hard hit, the fantasy friendly profile is here to have some huge seasons. I would just caution to have some restraint here as the red flags are here. – 2026 Projection: 72/25/83/.254/.308/.452/10

Mookie Betts – LAD, SS, 33.6 – We all know why Mookie had a down season. It’s not a mystery. He contracted a very serious stomach virus that caused him to lose 20 pounds right before the season started. That is so clearly the recipe for diminished power, and that is exactly what happened as he put up a career worst 35.8% Hard Hit%. The power outage not only impacted his homer totals (20 in 150 games), but also his batting average (.258), especially because of how much he lifts and pulls. The good news is that the hard hit numbers were already starting to come back up by the end of the season, putting up a 44.3% Hard Hit% in September. The 39.3% Hard Hit% in 17 playoff games was solid too even if he didn’t have the best post-season. He has a career 42.1% Hard Hit%. With a full off-season to regain the strength he lost, it sure seems like he should be in for a major bounce back in 2026, even at 33 years old, because the elite contact rates didn’t go anywhere with a career best 10.3% K%. He stole only 8 bags, and while it’s hard to expect huge steal totals in his mid 30’s, that should bounce back too when he gets on base as much as he usually does. I don’t see how we can consider this the start of a decline when we have a clear reason for the down season. All signs point towards a much better 2026. – 2026 Projection: 104/28/83/.279/.358/.487/14

Bullpen

Edwin Diaz – LAD, Closer, 32.0 – It doesn’t matter what coast he’s on, Diaz is a no doubt elite closer and might be the best reliever in baseball. He put up a 1.63 ERA with a 38.0/8.1 K%/BB% in 66.1 IP. The 41.5% whiff% is absurd and trails only Fernando Cruz, Mason Miller, and Brendon Little. If you are looking for undervalued, high upside relievers, you might want to take a peek at Cruz and Little. But back to Diaz, the 97.2 MPH 4-seamer and slider are both elite bat missing weapons. He has no major control issues with about average walk rates. He’s as elite as they come. – 2026 Projection: 5/2.44/0.93/101/33 saves in 65 IP

Los Angeles Dodgers 2026 Top 10 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Prospects Rankings

1) Josue De Paula – LAD, OF, 20.10 – 2026 is the season De Paula has to have the legitimate game power breakout. It’s his age 21 year old season, where so many Junior year college bats are able to make that adjustment and put up the big homer totals. If it doesn’t come for De Paula this year, I will start to get worried the odds of it ever coming will be low. I’m actually slightly disappointed it didn’t come this year with 12 homers, a 33% FB% and 40.7% Pull% in 102 games at mostly High-A. He got a 4 game cup of coffee at Double-A to close out the year, and while it’s obviously a super small sample, I’m not in love with the 83.3% GB%. So he just pounded the ball into the ground the first time he tasted advanced competition. Don’t take this blurb as me not liking De Paula, because I think I’m his biggest fan, “discovering” him when he was a legit unknown, not a word of hype DSL breakout and calling him a major buy before people caught on, so take it more as a proud father who is a bit disappointed. And I do still love him. He’s a 6’3” beast who genuinely crushes the ball with strong plate skills and base stealing ability. He put up a 142 wRC+ with a 20.2/19.0 K%/BB% and 32 steals in 98 games at High-A as a 19/20 year old. I’m most certainly in, but the reason he isn’t in the elite of the elite prospect tier is the still lacking game power, poor defense, and the fact he hasn’t proven it against advanced competition yet. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 88/24/84/.266/.348/.460/16

2) Emil Morales – LAD, SS, 19.6 – I love it when I’m evaluating the incoming international class and a prospect absolutely explodes off the screen. It happened with Lazaro Montes. It happened with Sebastian Walcott. And then it happened with Emil Morales. True athletic beasts that look undeniable even in a few swings on a Youtube video. All 3 immediately became the biggest targets for me in their international class, and all 3 exploded in pro ball. It’s just so fun hitting on one of these guys with such little information, and I can’t help it for them to become personal favorites. Montes and Walcott are obviously long past getting any value on them, but there is still value to be had on Morales, surprisingly. I went all in even more after he destroyed the DSL in 2024, ranking him 39th overall on the 2025 Top 500 Prospect Ranks last off-season when he wasn’t even getting Top 100 love, and he proved my love for him correct once again, closing out the season at Single-A as an 18 year old, slashing .339/.420/.548 with 5 homers, 5 steals, and a 23.1/11.9 K%/BB% in 30 games. That was good for a 160 wRC+. The hit tool was getting better and better as the year went on, he’s a true beast at 6’3” with lift/pull and hard hit, and he’s a legitimately good athlete. This is not just a lumbering slugger. This is a very special talent, who to my disbelief, still might not get a ton of Top 100 love. I don’t get it, but it’s better for you, because there is still time to get in before his value utterly explodes in 2026. I see a star every time I watch this kid, hit tool risk be damned. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 91/33/102/.261/.343/.515/12

3) Eduardo Quintero – LAD, OF, 20.7 – Quintero continues to be one off the very best hitters at every single level he plays at. He put up a 177 wRC+ in the DSL in 2023, a 146 wRC+ in stateside rookie in 2024, and then a 158 wRC+ at Single-A in 2025. The cherry on top is that he closed the year out at High-A as a still 19 year old and put up a 135 wRC+ in 32 games. It may sound obvious and simple, but I love a guy who just keeps on raking no matter the competition put in front of him. He finished the season slashing .293/.415/.508 with 19 homers, 47 steals, and a 22.7/16.3 K%/BB% in 113 games. They wanted him to lift/pull more this year, and he did it. Again, making adjustments and not seeing the production drop off at all is another great sign, because baseball is a game of adjustments, and you need to be able to tinker like that your entire career basically. He has a good feel to hit, he has plus power potential, he has speed and he’s a good defensive CF. That is all the boxes except upper minors production, but that is likely coming soon too. As much love as Quintero gets, he’s probably still underhyped. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 91/23/78/.263/.342/.450/31

4) Zyhir Hope – LAD, OF, 21.2- If an NFL Running Back played baseball, I imagine it would look a lot like Zyhir Hope. He’s got an NFL running back build at 5’10” with thunder thighs of pure steel, and he’s got the power/speed combo of a running back as well, crushing the ball with 13 homers and stealing 27 bags in 127 games at mostly High-A. He put up a 131 wRC+. Unfortunately, he also has the hit tool of a running back, hah, just playing, it’s not that bad, but there is definitely hit tool issues with a 26.3% K%. I’m very encouraged by his cup of coffee at Double-A to close out the season though. He put up a 20% K% in 20 PA, and while it’s too small of a sample to read into too much, it’s still a good sign. And he hit .266 on the season, so it’s not like the guy is completely incapable of hitting for average. The risk is he ends up a strong side of a platoon corner outfielder, but there is way too much upside in here to get overly scared off by the risk. He was just 20 years old last off-season, so there is time for him to refine the hit tool, and if anyone can help him, it’s the Dodgers. The Dodgers need some payoff from that Michael Busch trade (Busch for Hope and Ferris), and Hope is that payoff. The lefty Randy Arozarena is the comp. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 88/24/79/.250/.338/.455/26

5) Roki Sasaki – LAD, RHP, 24.5 – See above

6) Mike Sirota – LAD, OF, 22.9 – It was straight comical how just about everybody immediately called Sirota a major FYPD target the second he got traded to the Dodgers, including myself. I don’t even victory lap it at all because everyone single one of us saw it coming from a mile away right after the trade went down. And it’s just so stupid how ridiculously good of a season he had, slashing .333/.452/.616 with 13 homers, 5 steals, and a 21.9/17.8 K%/BB% in 59 games at Single-A and High-A. I want to reiterate that he was a 3rd round pick. Number 87 overall. He hadn’t played a single professional game, and yet every damn one of us was like, yup, he’s going to explode, and he did. I love it. The fact that he was considered a possible Top 10 picks before his junior year was also a big reason for the optimism. The talent is unquestionable here at 6’2”, 188 pounds with a plus power/speed combo. If we are going to nitpick, which is what we do, he only did this in the lower minors as an advanced college bat. Despite the plus speed, he was a bad base stealer, going 5 for 10, and while the 37.7% GB% looks good, the 34.2% Pull% is quite low. So the risk is that the hit tool ends up exposed a bit against more advanced competition, he doesn’t run a ton, and the lack of pull limits his homer totals. But the upside is a good defensive CF would hits 25 bombs with 15 steals and a solid BA. A knee injury is why his season got cut short and never got to prove it in the upper minors. He’s a Top 50-ish prospect for me, but the negatives I laid out are why I’m not going higher. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 86/24/84/.262/.339/.457/11

7) Chase Harlan – LAD, 3B, 19.9 – Harlan was one of my favorite 2025 FYPD Targets, writing in his Target blurb, “Harlan gives me shades of Austin Riley,” and after his excellent pro debut, those shades are even more obvious. He’s 6’3”, 205 pounds with an absolutely beastly righty swing. Just look at this thing. That is the type of swing you watch and your jaw just drops. It stands out. And he uses that swing to truly crush the ball. He slashed .269/.357/.442 with 9 homers, 3 steals, and a 22.3/12.0 K%/BB% in 68 games split between rookie ball (121 wRC+) and Single-A (103 wRC+). There is definitely hit tool risk, and that popped up at Single-A with a .240 BA and 26% K%. He was young for his class, but he turned 19 by the time he got to Single-A, so I hesitate to give him too large of an age to level bump. Still, he will only be 19 years old for the first half of the 2026 season, so there is time to improve that hit tool. And if he can, we are taking about true top level power upside, a la Austin Riley. I love him last off-season and I love him even more now. He’s a target, again. – 2026 Projection: 79/28/91/.244/.326/.472/6

8) Alex Freeland – LAD, 3B/2B, 24.7 – Freeland’s hit tool risk got exposed immediately in the majors with a .190 BA and a 36.1% K% in 97 PA. The 30.5% whiff% isn’t nearly as scary, and the 21.9% K% and 23.7% whiff% at Triple-A was considerably better, so I’m expecting a much better showing in his 2nd go around, but it’s very clearly a real risk. His next biggest problem is that he’s on the Dodgers and they don’t seem like they are just going to unleash him in the starting lineup. He’s going to have to compete and he’s going to have to earn it every step of the way. His good infield glove will help though, and if he can make his way on the field, the power/speed is in here to make a fantasy impact. He ripped the ball at Triple-A with a 47.6% Hard Hit%, and the 90.7 MPH EV in the majors is not too shabby. He can hit it damn hard, he can lift and pull, he’s got an excellent approach with a 19.3% Chase%, and he’s got speed with two 31 steal seasons under his belt in the minors. The 26.2 ft/sec sprint was oddly low in the majors, so I’m thinking it was just a small sample, but he also wasn’t exactly a demon on the bases at AAA this year (18 for 24), so we should probably keep the stolen bases expectations in a more moderate range. Considering both the hit tool and playing time risk, it’s hard to bet on him too hard, but the Dodgers are also super old in their infield. 2B is wide open. I wouldn’t fade him too hard either. – 2026 Projection: 38/9/31/.233/.308/.406/7 Prime Projection: 77/22/73/.248/.330/.436/16

9) River Ryan – LAD, RHP, 27.8 – Ryan underwent Tommy John surgery in August 2024 which wiped out his entire 2025 season. He was breaking out on the MLB level before going down with the injury with a 1.33 ERA and 22.2/11.1 K%/BB% in 20.1 IP. He had the big stuff to back it up with a 96.3 MPH fastball, a diverse pitch mix, and bat missing secondaries. But like so many Dodgers pitchers in this category, who knows when he will be able to claw his way back into the rotation, and how much they are going to ease/baby him back in. He’s good enough to not ignore, but he’s not so good where I would say he’s the type I’m actively targeting. If he’s a guy you have on the bottom of your roster, that works. – 2026 Projection: 3/4.18/1.32/71 in 75 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.91/1.29/150 in 150 IP

10) Charles Davalan – LAD, OF, 22.4 – Davalan is only 5’9” and he’s not a huge tools guy as a maxed out college bat, but you know if the Dodgers took him 41st overall, there is something to like, and as a little man discount connoisseur myself, I wouldn’t let his size fool you. For one, he packs a real punch with the bat, jacking out 14 homers in 65 games in the SEC. This isn’t just some Punch and Judy hitter. Davalan can hit the ball hard even if power isn’t going to be the main part of his game. The main part of his game is the hit tool with an 8.5/11.0 K%/BB%, speed (10 steals), and defensive versality (he can play 2B and all 3 OF positions). The pro debut got me even more excited for him, slashing .500/.541/.735 with 1 homer, 3 steals, and a 13.5/8.1 K%/BB% in 8 games at Single-A. Maybe he tops out as a cheap 400-500 AB utility type for the Dodgers, which might be the most likely outcome, but he’s also the type who can just keep hitting his way into more and more playing time. He ranked 36th overall on the Top 161 2026 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon). – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 78/16/71/.273/.331/.418/21

11) James Tibbs III – LAD, OF, 23.6 – This guy gets tossed around like a hot potato. I was going to try to update the “hot potato” expression, but I just made potatoes yesterday, and fuck are those things hot as hell. The expression stays. He’s projected to be more of a solid than standout bat, so once he got out of San Francisco, I definitely liked him more, but ending up in LA is a double edged sword. He’s very likely to end up blocked, but he needed a good developmental organization based on his pro debut, and LA immediately unlocked his potential at Double-A, slashing .269/.407/.493 with 7 homers, 5 steals, and a 21.4/17.3 K%/BB% in 36 games. He ended the season with 20 homers and 10 steals with a 21.4/16.0 K%/BB% in 123 games, which isn’t bad. Tibbs was a FYPD fade for me last year after getting picked 13th overall, writing, “The only scenario I would honestly see myself drafting him is in like a 30 team league, or if he falls so far I simply don’t have a choice (and even then I might keep on passing). Maybe this ranking is too low, but he’s just not my guy.” … So he’s still not my favorite prospect without big tools, but his draft pedigree and solid season deserve to sneak on the back of this list. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 76/18/72/.253/.327/.423/8

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Marlins trade Edward Cabrera to the Cubs for Owen Caissie, Cristian Hernandez, and Eduardo De Leon

I really don’t think Miami knows what they are doing. They don’t seem to get it. Last year in the 19 Dynasty Baseball Strategies/Thoughts for 2025 I lambasted their deal for Jesus Luzardo, writing, “Man, I wish I had the Marlins in my dynasty leagues, giving up nearly elite upside starters (Jesus Luzardo) for light hitting speedsters (Caba and Body). I thought Caba was getting a bit overrated (certainly for fantasy), and obviously Philly didn’t view him as untouchable either. If you can pull the same sell high move for Caba that Philly just did, I would jump on it. As all dynasty owners know too well, I bet you there is another team out there going, “they sold Luzardo for that? My offer was 3 times better than that!!” … and while I’ll start by saying I like this deal a lot more than that deal (Cabrera is not as valuable as Luzardo and Caissie is a prospect I actually like who can make an impact), I only like it a lot more because of how horrible the other deal was. Cabrera is a very legitimate high upside, high octane arm who was finally putting it together and has 3 more years of team control. An arm like this is crazy valuable, even with the injury risk as all these pitchers have injury risk. A smart team would realize it would take a knock me over haul to trade an arm like this, and Owen Caissie with two spare parts is not a knock me over haul. I like Caissie a lot for fantasy, but even in fantasy, I would have never made this deal. Caissie has never put up a strikeout rate lower than 27.9% in the minors. In his cup of coffee in this majors he put up a 40% K% and 39.7% whiff% in 27 PA. Small sample for sure, but I mean, it shows that extreme risk in bright red colors. He doesn’t hit lefties well and he doesn’t have much defensive value. A power hitting, corner platoon outfielder with extreme hit tool risk is not the type of piece that should land you 3 years of a guy who could be a near ace or #2. It’s not like it’s impossible for this one to work out better for the Marlins, because again, I like this deal much better than the Luzardo deal. Cabrera could get hurt and Caissie could hit 30 bombs. I get that, but even if that is the outcome, I don’t believe the Marlins properly understand value. Look at that Rays deal for Baz as a counterpoint. They swept up with 5 value pieces and got a centerpiece in Forret as well. That is how a smart team does it. Miami doesn’t get it.

As for fantasy, everyone wins here. Caissie gets a clearer path, Cabrera gets a better team, White and Snelling have one less arm in front of them, and Alcantara and Long have one less bat in front of them. Great trade all around as far as fantasy is concerned. And again, I don’t dislike Caissie. He’s a really good power hitting prospects who is an easy Top 100 Prospect. It’s just not the guy you trade a potential cheap ace or potential #2 for 3 years for in real life. Major hit tool risk, big power corner outfielders should not cost that much in real life.

Cubs sign Alex Bregman for 5 years, $175 million

Straight disaster for Matt Shaw. The Cubs have been threatening to trade Hoerner for a while, so hopefully they do that (or trade Shaw), but they could just keep Shaw as depth with the intention of him taking over for Hoerner in 2027. It’s the same situation that Jasson Dominguez is probably about to be in when the Yanks sign Bellinger. Two guys who I think are long term starters and I still love, but what the hell am I supposed to do with them in limbo for 2026. I’m stressing over it hah, but this is dynasty, and if you believe in a player, you should stick with them even through playing time uncertainty. I stuck with Ben Rice last year, and it paid off in a major way. I’m holding strong on my value on both Shaw and Dominguez long term, but short term, yea, it kinda sucks.

As for Bregman, it is a definite ballpark downgrade from Boston and Houston, and considering his fantasy value was already boring, it’s not exactly great. But make no mistake, this is not an Isaac Paredes situation at all. Paredes has a career 30.6% Hard Hit%. He desperately needs a good ballpark for his profile. Bregman has a career 38.5% Hard Hit% and actually raised it to a career high 44.4% in 2025. This is not a Paredes situation by any stretch. They are not the same. Bregman is going to be just fine, and if he can actually maintain that increased Hard Hit, he might be more than fine. I really don’t think this changes his ranking all that much even though it is a ballpark downgrade.

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Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon (free ones listed in parenthesis)

Arizona Diamondbacks—Atlanta Braves—Baltimore Orioles—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago Cubs (free)—Cincinnati Reds (free)—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Yankees (free)—Pittsburgh Pirates (free)—Sacramento Athletics—Seattle Mariners—St. Louis Cardinals (free)—Tampa Bay Rays—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

 

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2025 Deep Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings: Top 98 Second Baseman (Patreon)

Welcome to Second Baseman Rankings Week on the Patreon! The position closest to my heart, as that was the position I mostly played growing up. And please stop just displacing and undervaluing natural 2B with bad defenders from other positions thinking it’s easy! Get off my position! You stunk at SS and now you also stink at 2B! And while we’re at it, I can also play a better SS than you if the damn coach gave me chance! And one more thi … okay, I let that get away from me for a second there 😉 But back on track, let’s show these slick fielding middle infielders the love they deserve this week. Top 5 free on the Brick Wall. Full analysis, projections and prime projections for every player. Here is the 2025 Deep Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings: Top 98 Second Baseman:

1) Mookie Betts – LAD, 2B/OF, 32.6 – Betts is the leader of the Slow Bat Speed Kings with a 69 MPH swing that is 442nd “best” in baseball (minimum 50 swings). But he proves swinging an electric bat isn’t the only path to success. He had another great season which was only interrupted by a fractured hand in mid June, slashing .289/.372/.491 with 19 homers, 16 steals, and a 11.0/11.8 K%/BB% in 116 games. The 11% K% tied a career best, and his 16 steals tied for a 6 year best. The 26.7 ft/sec sprint was a career low and in the bottom 30% of the league, so while there certainly seems to be some physical decline, it hasn’t impacted his stats quite yet. Like I’ve been saying with elite players like this, 33 years old is when I start to think about selling, so I’m running it back in 2025 with Mookie. 2025 Projection: 110/32/100/.290/.370/.525/18

2) Jackson Holliday – BAL, 2B, 21.4 – There always has to be one. Chourio was a beast. Langford was really good and beasted at the end of the season. Merrill exceeded all expectations all year. Caminero showed flashes and laid a solid foundation. And then there was Holliday, who had a nightmare rookie year. He slashed .189/.255/.311 with 5 homers, 4 steals, and a 33.2/7.2 K%/BB% in 60 games. The .262 xwOBA backs up the terrible surface stats. To continue with the bad, just to get it all out of my system, his bat speed also wasn’t very impressive with a 71.2 MPH swing that was very slightly below average. There are very real things to be concerned about, like the hit tool being bottom of the scale bad, because he doesn’t necessarily have the biggest game power/base stealing to truly make up for that. It’s possible for prospects to bust, or have decent but unspectacular careers, even elite ones who feel can’t miss. Now having said that, I’m not even close to giving up on Holliday. Even with the extreme struggles, he put up a very good 8.2% Barrel% and 89.3/94.8 MPH AVG/FB EV. Hitting the ball that hard as a 20 year old is impressive. He’s also lightning fast with a 29.4 ft/sec sprint, and he had an above average 27.2% Chase%, so it’s not like he was completely lost up there. His hit tool has been very strong at every stop of the minors, so a 33.9% whiff% as a 20 year old in his first taste of the majors really isn’t that huge of a deal. It’s almost certain to improve as he gains experience. Do I think his terrible season has his stock dropping a bit? Yes. But he’s still a Top 50 dynasty asset for me, and I’m expecting a much better year 2. – 2025 Projection: 77/16/68/.247/.318/.411/18 Prime Projection: 98/25/83/.278/.360/.485/25

3) Ketel Marte – ARI, 2B, 31.6 – Marte has always hit the ball hard, but he went absolutely bonkos in 2024 with a 94 MPH EV which was a career high by a mile (91.1 MPH in 2023). It was the 6th best EV in baseball amongst qualified hitters. And it resulted in him smashing 36 homers in 136 games to go along with his usual excellent plate plate approach (18.2/11.1 K%/BB%) and high BA (.292). His righty swing is just an insane 77.2 MPH, and it resulted in a 1.080 OPS vs. lefties. His 71.5 MPH lefty swing is just fine too and it resulted in a .841 OPS. I have to say, the jump in EV is suspiciously high, but what do I know. It sure feels like a career year, but if the throwback steroid era 30 year old power breakout is for real, maybe he can hold this level for the next couple years. I find it hard to bet on that, but even if he falls back to career norms, he’s still a damn good hitter. – 2025 Projection: 97/29/90/.280/.357/.506/8

4) Ozzie Albies – ATL, 2B, 28.3 – I’m a little torn on Albies. On the one hand, Albies is still in the prime of his career, and has a long track of excellent production, which makes predicting a bounce back season in 2025 seem very easy. But on the other hand, his 27.2 ft/sec sprint speed was a career low and was below average, he swings a well below average bat with a 69.1 MPH swing, and he chases a lot with a 33.6% Chase%. He also doesn’t hit the ball hard enough (32% Hard Hit% in 2024 and 35.5% in his career) to make up for a lot of those deficiencies. He thrives based on the contact (14.9% K%), lift (18.4 degree launch), and pull (48.8% Pull%) profile, but I’m starting to question if this is a profile I want to bet on long term. The profile isn’t that much different than Jose Altuve, who has aged just fine, so maybe I’m overthinking it, but I’m starting to think that Albies might have more name value than real dynasty value at the moment. I’m not too concerned over the next couple of seasons, but in the medium and long term, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him as just a good fantasy player, rather than a true difference maker. – 2025 Projection: 83/25/87/.266/.321/.461/16

5) Matt McLain – CIN, 2B/SS, 25.8 – Don’t forget about little Matty Mclain. He underwent shoulder surgery in late March and then suffered a late season rib injury which knocked out his entire regular season. But he returned in time for the AFL to prove his shoulder was healthy, and he hit well there with 4 homers and a .876 OPS in 13 games. It gives confidence that with a full normal off-season, he will be ready to build on his awesome 2023 MLB debut where he slashed .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers, 14 steals, and a 28.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in 89 games. He obliterated Triple-A too with a 184 wRC+ in 40 games. He has double plus speed with a 29 ft/sec sprint and he has above average power with a 89.3 MPH EV and 13.8 degree launch. His plate approach wasn’t great with a 28.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in the majors, but his chase rate was above average at 25.4%, and his 28% whiff% shows he isn’t going to have any major contact issues. He also had a 20.6%/16.7% K%/BB% in the minors. And the cherry on top is that he is a good defensive player, so his glove will keep him on the field. Assuming full health, McLain is the real deal, but factoring in some rust and/or risk from the surgery wouldn’t be crazy. Just don’t factor in too much, because McLain can be a really exciting fantasy player. – 2025 Projection: 82/25/79/.269/.343/.468/22

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 135 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2025 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-2025 DEEP DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 Catchers–Top 83 1B– Top 98 2B
-END OF SEASON 2024 TOP 322 PROSPECTS RANKS
-END OF SEASON 2024 TOP 438 DYNASTY RANKS
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS with full scouting reports and prime projections (a Top 100+ coming soon)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: END OF SEASON MAILBAG!
-SPREADSHEETS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT! – Dynasty Team Reports, Deep Positional Rankings, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Fall/Winter League Updates, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks, Top 500+ Prospects Ranks, Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks & so much more!

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon (free ones listed in parenthesis)

Atlanta Braves—Baltimore Orioles—Cincinnati Reds–Chicago Cubs (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Detroit Tigers—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers (free)—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—Philadelphia Phillies—Pittsburgh Pirates—San Diego Padres—Tampa Bay Rays—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals (free)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

End of Season 2024 Top 438 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon)

Let’s close out the regular season with a bang! It’s End of Season Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week! As usual, I’m going over 400 deep with blurbs for every player. Top 25 free here on IBW. But you guys already know that the fun is really just getting started with tons of dynasty content coming all off-season on the Patreon, including Dynasty Team Reports, Team Prospect Lists, Deep Positional Rankings, Strategy Articles, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Top 100+ FYPD Rankings, Top 500+ Prospect Rankings, Top 1,000+ Dynasty Rankings and so much more! But first, here is the End of Season 2024 Top 438 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-END OF SEASON 2024 TOP 322 PROSPECTS RANKS
-END OF SEASON 2024 438 DYNASTY RANKS
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS with full scouting reports and prime projections
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: SEPTEMBER MAILBAG!
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT! – Dynasty Team Reports, Team Prospect Rankings, Deep Positional Rankings, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks, Top 500+ Prospects Ranks, Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks & so much more!

*Previous Rankings are in parenthesis

1) (4) (4) (3) (4) (5) Shohei Ohtani – LAD, RHP/DH, 30.2 – Ohtani just went 50/50, is working on 55/55, and just might mess around and go 60/60 if he keeps going insane this last week. He also might already get back on the mound this post season. Age be damned, I don’t see how I could possibly pass on Ohtani for any other player in the game. It just seems silly.

2) (1) (1) (2) (2) (2) Bobby Witt Jr. – KCR, SS, 24.3 – Only a 30/30 season for Witt? How cute

3) (2) (2) (1) (9) (9) Elly De La Cruz – CIN, SS/3B, 22.8 – I told you to embrace the risk when it came to Elly, ranking him 9th overall this off-season, and it paid off in a major way with him going 25/65. The .261 BA was pretty damn good too considering expectations. I laugh in the face of risk … except when it comes to rollercoasters, horseback riding, skydiving, mountain climbing etc … but when it comes to taking an unproven uber athlete with hit tool risk 9th overall, danger is my middle name

4) (3) (3) (6) (13) (28) Gunnar Henderson – BAL, SS/3B, 23.3 – Gunning for a 40/20 season. Career bests basically everywhere you look. If steals are devalued in your league (pts, 6+ cat leagues etc …), Gunnar would slide in ahead of Elly

Shadow4) (4) (4) (4) (10) (13) Shohei Ohtani – LAD, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 30.1 – This is where I would rank Ohtani in weekly leagues or as a hitter only. Without the pitching to put him over the top, the age does come into play here a bit

5) (5) (5) (5) (7) (7) Juan Soto – NYY, OF, 25.11 – Is there any doubt that Boras will gun for the 20 year, $1 Billion contract? I don’t think he’ll be able to resist the leaked reports that Boris is asking for a billy. Steals are the only thing Soto lacks for fantasy

6) (7) (6) (7) (8) (8) Kyle Tucker – HOU, OF, 27.7 – Returned from a deep bone bruise and has a 1.113 OPS in 14 games, leaving no concern about his elite ability for 2025. But he’ll get zero hype anyway because that is just how it goes for Tucker. Quiet Killer

7) (8) (15) (4) (1) (1) Ronald Acuna Jr. – ATL, OF, 26.8 – Underwent surgery to repair a torn ACL in his left knee. We’ve already seen Acuna return from a torn ACL and put up a historic season, but switching sports for a second, you can’t help but think of Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose. Both were explosive young athletes who kept blowing out their knees until the explosion dimmed. They were still good, but no longer in true prime form. Let’s hope Acuna can avoid that fate, and let’s also take into account baseball isn’t basketball. I’m not giving up on Acuna as an elite dynasty player at all, but it’s something to think about

8) (17) (21) (12) (5) (3) Corbin Carroll – ARI, OF, 24.0 – I implored you with everything I had that by decree of fantasy law, you are required to go down with the ship when it comes to elite dynasty assets like Carroll, and luckily, you didn’t actually have to go down with the ship as he righted it, slashing .257/.350/.591 with 19 homers, 17 steals, and a 20.6/11.0 K%/BB% in his last 65 games. The shoulder looks good

9) (6) (9) (8) (11) (12) Aaron Judge – NYY, OF, 32.5 – 55 homers but it only comes with 10 steals. Super unimpressive

10) (9) (7) (13) (10) (10) Yordan Alvarez – HOU, OF, 27.3 – Perfect 6 for 6 on the bases, which crushes his previous career high of 1 steal. The knees must be feeling pretty good, which is all we want for dynasty

11) (12) (8) (10) (3) (6) Fernando Tatis Jr. – SDP, OF, 25.7 –  Returned from a right femoral stress reaction and is raking with a .939 OPS in 17 games. .393 xwOBA leaves little doubt that he’s still elite, but injuries are constantly popping up, and he’s not running as much this year with 10 steals in 97 games

12) (16) (14) (11) (6) (4) Julio Rodriguez – SEA, OF, 23.8 – Slashing .321/.381/.556 with 12 homers, 6 steals, and a 23.4/7.3 K%/BB% in his last 50 games. He had a .616 OPS in the 87 games before that. He took the slow start thing to a whole new level this year, but I don’t think his owners can stomach another repeat of this. He has to figure it out this off-season

13) (18) (25) (49) (61) (68) James Wood – WAS, OF, 22.0 – As long as the hit tool stayed in a reasonable range, there was zero doubt that Wood would shine, and the hit tool stayed in a reasonable range with a 28.4% K% and 29.7% whiff%. The 92.6/97.3 AVG/FB MPH EV and 28.6 ft/sec sprint did the rest. There are a lot of good candidates to be the top rookie on these rankings, but I’ll take the guy who absolutely smashes the ball much, much, much harder than any of them

14) (19) (27) (24) (20) (18) Jackson Chourio – MIL, OF, 20.6 – Slashed .305/.364/.540 with 16 homers, 14 steals, and a 17.1/7.7 K%/BB% in his last 91 games. He just went .273/21/21 as a 20 year old. Wood vs. Chourio is a coin flip

15) (10) (23) (28) (23) (22) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – TOR, 1B, 25.6 – We can now put the “Vlad has only had a great year in a minor league ballpark” narrative to rest. His 168 wRC+ is a career high this year. Granted he hit 48 homers in the minor league park and only 30 this year, but still. He officially locked in elite status

16) (14) (11) (17) (18) (15) Jose Ramirez – CLE, 3B, 32.0 – Ramirez might go 40/40 and nobody cares. Barely hear about it. The Ohtani Shadow is real

17) (20) (22) (62) (102) (151) Jackson Merrill – SDP, OF/SS, 21.4 – Merrill’s argument for being the top rookie on this list is that his .370 xwOBA outpaces them all, and by a large margin. His extremely low launch used to be an area of concern, and now his 14.7 degree launch is leaps and bounds above Chourio and Wood. The reason he sits 3rd among them though is because he doesn’t seem to run quite as much throughout his career

18) (22) (17) (19) (78) (106) Paul Skenes – PIT, RHP, 22.3 – 1.99 ERA with a 32.9/6.3 K%/BB% in 131 IP. The easiest #1 dynasty pitcher in the game ranking I’ve ever made. The only reason he doesn’t rank even higher is that pitchers break, and pitchers that throw 98.8 MPH seem to break even more. Sucks to even acknowledge, but it’s part of the game.

19) (13) (10) (16) (17) (13) Bryce Harper – PHI, 1B, 31.11 – Career 142 wRC+ and has a 143 wRC+ this season. Still elite and I would bet on him being elite (or near elite) deep into his 30’s

20) (15) (13) (9) (12) (14) Mookie Betts – LAD, 2B/OF, 31.11 – Mookie is on pace to steal the most bases in a season since 2018, and if he didn’t get hurt, he would have surpassed 20. The decline years are lurking, but they ain’t here yet

21) (27) (26) (27) (22) (20) Wyatt Langford – TEX, OF, 22.10 – It took until September, but the underlying numbers kept saying to stay patient, and the breakout is here now, slashing .316/.395/.605 with 5 homers, 4 steals, and a 22.1/10.5 K%/BB% in his last 20 games. He’s crushing the ball with a 92.1 MPH EV over that time. I feel good about having Chourio as my #1 overall prospect over Langford (and Holliday) last off-season, but this story is far from over. This is just Chapter 1

22) (23) (30) (39) (32) (26) Francisco Lindor – NYM, SS, 30.10 – After nearly another 30/30 season, Lindor might finally not be so underrated going into next year. But I will say that him fighting through this back injury with extra injections to get back on the field doesn’t feel all that great for his long term health as he gets deeper into his 30’s. I agree with his decision to gut it out, don’t get me wrong, but I think it’s worth mentioning

23) (32) (53) (94) (123) (165) Jarren Duran – BOS, OF, 28.0 – Backed up the 2023 breakout with an even better year in 2024, currently sitting 15th overall on the Razzball Player Rater. He hits it hard, he’s lightning fast, and the hit tool just keeps on improving. There is nothing that says he’s a fluke at all. Value highly with confidence

24) (31) (40) (41) (36) (38) Oneil Cruz – PIT, SS, 25.11 – 95.6 MPH EV trails only Ohtani and Judge, and just barely. He now has a .255 career BA in 987 career PA, so while the hit tool is still a risk, I don’t think it’s that risky. And he went 22 for 23 on the bases. This is a truly elite dynasty asset, and he still feels on the underrated side

25) (21) (12) (14) (15) (46) CJ Abrams – WAS, SS, 23.11 – Sent down to the minors because he was partying at a casino until 8 AM when he had a 1 PM game. He’s 23 years old. The Nationals are so far out of it. I say give the kid a break. This doesn’t impact his dynasty value at all for me. He just went 20/30 with his power ticking up a notch this year. I think there is another jump coming in the future. This is just the beginning

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-END OF SEASON 2024 TOP 322 PROSPECTS RANKS
-END OF SEASON 2024 438 DYNASTY RANKS
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS with full scouting reports and prime projections
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: SEPTEMBER MAILBAG!
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT! – Dynasty Team Reports, Team Prospect Rankings, Deep Positional Rankings, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks, Top 500+ Prospects Ranks, Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks & so much more!

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Combo Platter Week: August 2024 Top 274 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon)

Welcome to Combination Platter Week! I’m going to try something different this week. I usually only serve up Rankings one week, and Dynasty Rundowns the next, but I’m just feeling a Combination Platter Week where I serve up a little of both. Why order just the General Tso’s Chicken when you can get the General Tso’s Chicken and Roast Pork Fried Rice combo platter (with wonton soup instead of the egg roll, please)? I’m going to do a Top 274 update of the Dynasty Rankings for the first half of the week (Top 25 free here on IBW), and then I am going to finish it off on Thursday and Friday with Dynasty Rundowns. I’ve just been having a lot of fun with Dynasty Rundowns that I don’t want to skip a full week, but I’m definitely itching to update the top half of the dynasty rankings with so many of the young breakouts going crazy right now. The latter part of the dynasty rankings are mostly prospects (which you can see the recently updated August Top 327 Prospects Rankings for that) or lower upside vets anyway, so hopefully this will be a best of both worlds type of thing. And it’s only something I want to try out and would be an occasional thing. Full Top 400+ Dynasty Rankings will still come out in September. Without further ado, here is the August 2024 Top 274 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon):

*Previous Rankings are in parenthesis

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-AUGUST TOP 327 PROSPECTS RANKS (8/9/24)
-MID-SEASON TOP 422 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (7/12/24)
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS (7/19/24)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/31/24)
-TOP 11 MID-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (6/25/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

1) (1) (2) (2) (2) Bobby Witt Jr. – KCR, SS, 24.2 – Witt was already my #2 overall ranked dynasty player coming into the season, and then he messed around and improved in almost all areas of his game, putting up career best marks in Barrel% (14.3%), EV (92.9 MPH), xwOBA (.418), K% (15%), and BB% (7.3%). The only thing that hasn’t improved in his baserunning, going 25 for 37 on the bases, but I think we can forgive him for that. He is the runaway #1 Dynasty player in the game.

2) (2) (1) (9) (9) Elly De La Cruz – CIN, SS/3B, 22.7 – I closed out Elly’s off-season Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “I always say, ‘if you can’t take risks in fantasy, where can you take risks,’ and I’m not even sure Elly is as risky as people think. I’m all in.” … Taking that “risk” paid off majorly as he’s on pace to go almost 30/80. He raised his launch to a respectable 10.3 degrees and he improved his plate approach with an above average 26.1% Chase%. Keep in mind he’s still just 22 years old, so if he can bring that 31.3% K% down into the mid 20’s at some point, Whoa Nelly

3) (3) (6) (13) (28) Gunnar Henderson – BAL, SS/3B, 23.2 – Career bests in Barrel% (12.6%), EV (93.2 MPH), xwOBA (.386), K% (22.5%) and Chase% (21.8%). He also improved his 2 biggest weaknesses, putting up a .891 OPS vs. lefties and running more with 14 steals. He still isn’t running quite enough to surpass Witt and Cruz though

4) (4) (3) (4) (5) Shohei Ohtani – LAD, RHP/DH, 30.1 – Ohtani ranks 1st on the CBS Player Rater, but only 3rd on the Razzball Player Rater. Battle of the Player Raters!! I’m a Razzball guy, so I’ll trust theirs. He is 1 homer and 3 steals away from joining the elite 40-40 club that has only 5 current members (Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Jose Canseco, Alfonso Soriano, Ronald Acuna). And he’s going to be back on the mound next year too. Even at 30 years old, it might be silly to place him anywhere else but #1 in a daily moves league, and in pure win now mode, he’s almost definitely #1

Shadow4) (4) (4) (10) (13) Shohei Ohtani – LAD, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 30.1 – This is where I would rank Ohtani in weekly leagues or as a hitter only. The Shadow Ohtani is now shadowing the Real Ohtani … the world is folding in on itself

5) (5) (5) (7) (7) Juan Soto – NYY, OF, 25.10 – I nailed Soto’s off-season Top 1,000 blurb so hard that even I’m starting to question if I can actually see into the future ;), “This is a contract year for Soto, and Scott Boras is his agent. He hasn’t really had that crazy career year yet. 2020 looked like it could have been that year with 13 homers and 202 wRC+ in 49 games, but it was a shortened season. What I’m trying to say is, the Baseball Gods owe him one, and his move from one of the very worst ballparks for lefty homers to one of the very best only adds fuel to that fire (I’m expecting him to start pulling the ball just a bit more) … Everything seems to be setting up for Soto to have one of those silly statistical seasons that won’t even look real, and then he will land one of those silly contract numbers that won’t even look real.” He’s having that season with a 188 wRC+ that is 2nd only to Judge and a .478 xwOBA that is tied with Judge. I’m just imaging Boras manically laughing with every homer Soto hits

6) (9) (8) (11) (12) Aaron Judge – NYY, OF, 32.4 – Judge’s career 171 wRC+ is 9th in baseball history, behind only Josh Gibson, Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Oscar Charleston, Willard Brown, Buck Leonard, Turkey Stearnes (great name), and Barry Bonds. Not bad. Trout is 13th overall, Yordan is 15th and Soto is 19th.

7) (6) (7) (8) (8) Kyle Tucker – HOU, OF, 27.6 – Out since June 3rd with a deep bone bruise in his shin. He was putting up the quietest 174 wRC+ in baseball history before going down with the injury

8) (15) (4) (1) (1) Ronald Acuna Jr. – ATL, OF, 26.7 – Underwent surgery to repair a torn ACL in his left knee. We’ve already seen Acuna return from a torn ACL and put up a historic season, but switching sports for a second, you can’t help but think of Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose. Both were explosive young athletes who kept blowing out their knees until the explosion dimmed. They were still good, but no longer in true prime form. Let’s hope Acuna can avoid that fate, and let’s also take into account baseball isn’t basketball. I’m not giving up on Acuna as an elite dynasty player at all, but it’s something to think about

9) (7) (13) (10) (10) Yordan Alvarez – HOU, OF, 27.2 – He’s running WILD this year with 5 whole steals. He had 2 steals in his entire career prior to this EXPLOSION. And oh yea, he’s still consistently elite with a 162 wRC+

10) (23) (28) (23) (22) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – TOR, 1B, 25.5 – The underlying numbers have been screaming Vlad was legit elite, and once again, the underlying numbers didn’t steer us wrong as he’s slashing a ridiculous .421/.492/.904 with 13 homers in his last 30 games

11) (19) (26) (29) (23) Rafael Devers – BOS, 3B, 27.9 – Having a career year in his age 27 season with a career high 156 wRC+, .968 OPS, and 93.8 MPH EV. The guy is a consistent beast

12) (8) (10) (3) (6) Fernando Tatis Jr. – SDP, OF, 25.7 – Out since June 21st with a right femoral stress reaction. It’s taking awhile for him to heel, which I’m taking as a good sign that he isn’t taking any “shortcuts.” His .400 xwOBA was in the top 4% of the league before going down with the injury. It’s clear he can still be truly elite when healthy

13) (10) (16) (17) (13) Bryce Harper – PHI, 1B, 31.10 – .365 xwOBA is the 2nd lowest mark of his career in the Statcast era, but nothing is really showing any signs of decline, and his 145 wRC+ is right in line with career norms (142 career wRC+). I’ve said it before, but Harper strikes me as the type who will be raking deep into his 30’s

14) (11) (17) (18) (15) Jose Ramirez – CLE, 3B, 31.11 – Showing zero signs of decline and he even hit the hardest ball of his career this year with a 116.6 MPH Max EV. He’s also 6 steals away from breaking his personal record, and 29 steals is already the most steals he’s had in a season since he was 25 years old

15) (13) (9) (12) (14) Mookie Betts – LAD, 2B/OF, 31.10 – .986 OPS in 7 games since returning from a broken hand. I would say he’s fully healed

16) (14) (11) (6) (4) Julio Rodriguez – SEA, OF, 23.7 – 1.022 OPS in his last 20 games. .338 xwOBA is much better than the .308 wOBA. He still crushes the ball with a 91.1 MPH EV and he’s still lightning fast with a 29.7 ft/sec sprint. Ain’t no way in hell I’m selling low on Julio

17) (21) (12) (5) (3) Corbin Carroll – ARI, OF, 23.11 – The power has finally returned, slashing .252/.341/.622 with 11 homers, 6 steals, and a 27/15 K/BB in his last 34 games. This is why I was so adamant that with a player like this, you go down with the ship before selling low

18) (25) (49) (61) (68) James Wood – WAS, OF, 21.11 – He’s doing his best Elly De La Cruz impression with huge EV’s (94.6 MPH), a low launch (3.1 degrees), speed (6 steals with a 28.3 ft/sec sprint), and some hit tool issues (30.5/11.9 K%/BB%) in his 42 game MLB debut. He’s not nearly as fast as Elly, but he’s hitting the ball much harder. He’s going to join the truly elite dynasty assets in no time, if he isn’t there already.

19) (27) (24) (20) (18) Jackson Chourio – MIL, OF, 20.5 – Here is what I wrote about Chourio in the 8/16/24 Dynasty Baseball Rundown, “We already know the Chourio level up has arrived, and he keeps arriving after going 2 for 4 with a double and a homer last night. He’s now knocking on the door of a .280/20/20 season in his rookie year at .274/15/16 in 108 games. I’m feeling pretty good about my very tough decision to place Jackson Chourio at the #1 prospect in baseball this off-season over the likes of Holliday, Langford, and Caminero. This isn’t a victory lap as all of them were about equal in my book, they are still very close, and they can end up flip flopping their entire careers, but I spent a TON of time thinking about this in the off-season, and it’s cool to see it seems I had the right read, at least for now.”

20) (22) (62) (102) (151) Jackson Merrill – SDP, OF/SS, 21.3 – Merrill had a 59.9% GB% in 2022 at Single-A, and it is all the way down to 37.9% this year in the majors. That improvement is wild, especially when you consider it hasn’t impacted his hit tool at all with a 18.1% K% and .290 BA, or his hard hit ability at all with a 89.8 MPH EV. He’s one of the most exciting young players in the game

21) (12) (14) (15) (46) CJ Abrams – WAS, SS, 23.10 – 11 for 12 on the bases in his last 29 games, so any concerns about his baserunning can be put to rest, but on the flip side, his power metrics are starting to regress too with a .522 OPS in his last 33 games

22) (17) (19) (78) (106) Paul Skenes – PIT, RHP, 22.2 – The most slam dunk generational pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg, and he hasn’t disappointed with a 2.30 ERA and 31.8/6.3 K%/BB% in 98 IP. Strasburg put up a 2.91 ERA with a 33.6/6.2 K%/BB% in 68 IP his first year out of college too. Let’s just hope Skenes’ career has more longevity, but with all of these upper 90 MPH flamethrowers dropping like flies, you sadly know it’s not going to be a decade+ of unscathed 180 IP+ years. That’s just how it goes for these guys

23) (30) (39) (32) (26) Francisco Lindor – NYM, SS, 30.9 – Lindor might be the most underrated fantasy and real life player in baseball. His 5.9 WAR is 5th best in baseball and he’s on pace for his second straight 30/30 season

24) (16) (18) (19) (17) Trea Turner – PHI, SS, 31.1 – 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed is a career low by far, and while you can blame the hamstring strain, injuries as you get older is generally what slows you down. This is the first sign of decline for the 31 year old Turner, and we know speed first profiles do not age well for dynasty. He’s stolen only 2 bases in his last 29 games. Having said that, Turner is an elite base stealer, going 14 for 15 this year and going a perfect 30 for 30 in 2023. I think he will be running until the day they tear the uniform off him

25) (18) (20) (42) (59) Tarik Skubal – DET, LHP, 27.8 – Pure dominance all season with a 2.49 ERA and 30.1/5.4 K%/BB% in 155.1 IP. It was announced he will get extra rest down the stretch though, which really puts a damper on my off-season bet for Skubal to lead the league in strikeouts at +8000 odds ($10 to win $800). He’s currently just 2 K’s behind the leader, Chris Sale. Damn

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-AUGUST TOP 327 PROSPECTS RANKS (8/9/24)
-MID-SEASON TOP 422 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (7/12/24)
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS (7/19/24)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/31/24)
-TOP 11 MID-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (6/25/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Top 1,000 Rankings for 2024 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues (Patreon)

I gave you a day to catch your breath with the Top 583 2024 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings dropping on Monday. Now it’s time to unveil the Top 1,146 2024 Dynasty Baseball Rankings over on the Patreon. Top 80 are free here on the Brick Wall. Analysis and Prime Projections for every player. The All-in-One Spreadsheet is also coming soon. These lists will be released here on Imaginary Brick Wall in late March. Here is the Top 1,000 Rankings for 2024 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON & SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 500 2024 PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 132 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (+Target & Strategy Guide)
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B–Top 161 SS-Top 316 OF-Top 321 SP-Top 102 RP
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET COMING SOON
-DYNASTY TEAM REPORTS FOR EVERY TEAM (Top 10+ Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
-UPCOMING: Position by Position Target Series, Top 600 OBP Rankings, Top 600 Points/6+Cats/OPS “Universal” Rankings, Predicting the 2024 Top 50 Prospects Rankings that doubles as a Bold Predictions article, and much more

1) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 26.3 – Acuna went 40/70, but somehow the most mind blowing thing about his 2023 season is that he all of a sudden turned into an elite contact hitter with an 11.4% K% (23.6% in 2022). He also must have eaten his spinach this off-season, because the six foot Acuna Popeye’d the league with the type of exit velocity numbers usually reserved for giant human beings only. His 121.2 Max EV was the hardest hit ball all season. The next 6 leaders in that category were the 6’6” Giancarlo Stanton, the 6’5” Elly De La Cruz, the 6’4” Shohei Ohtani, the 6’5” Matt Olson, the 6’2” Jake Burger, and the 6’5” Yordan Alvarez. His 94.7 MPH AVG EV was bested only by the superhuman Aaron Judge (97.6 MPH). He got slower with a career worst 28 ft/sec sprint, but he still stole 73 bags. He hit the ball on the ground more than ever with a career high 49.5% GB%, but he still hit 41 bombs. He’s the undisputed #1 overall dynasty player. 2024 Projection: 132/37/103/.318/.398/.582/61

2) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS, 23.10 – Witt is Exhibit A on why you should be betting on Anthony Volpe and Jordan Walker in 2024. When an elite prospect shows all the ingredients of a future breakout in their rookie year, you need to be all over whatever small discount you can get them for. These are the type of breakouts that look so obvious in hindsight, you forget you ever doubted them in the first place. Witt raised his FB/LD EV from 92.6 MPH in 2022 to 94.4 MPH in 2023 and all hell broke loose with him cracking 30 dingers. He also lowered his K% by 4 percentage points to 17.4% and raised his BB% by 1.1 percentage points to 5.8%. The scary thing is that he was on the unlucky side too with a .343 wOBA vs. .373 xwOBA. There is another level to unlock here. His .904 2nd half OPS is probably what he has in store for us in 2024. 2024 Projection: 102/34/107/.283/.336/.522/47

3) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 23.7 – The 5’10” Carroll laughs at me for even hinting that the 6’0” Acuna isn’t big. Carroll truly had to deal with the little man discrimination his entire career, falling to a ridiculous 16th overall in the 2019 MLB Draft (I ranked him 3rd overall personally). He’s done nothing but prove the doubters wrong since then, culminating with a rookie season that immediately catapulted him to elite dynasty status. He smashed 25 homers with a 90 MPH EV. Nobody doubted his speed, and he didn’t disappoint with 54 steals and a 30.1 ft/sec sprint. The cherry on top is that he put up career best contact rates with a 19.4% K%, and that includes his entire minor league career going back to rookie ball. The only thing that could stop him is the major shoulder injury he suffered in 2021 which reared it’s ugly head again this July. He doubled over in pain after a swing and said, “I took a swing, and I felt a shift in my shoulder, shocking, tingling sensation go down my arm and then my hand go numb. I was just holding it thinking it came out of the socket, pretty much thought that the season was over.” It ended up being “minor,” but I’m not sure how you can’t at least have that in the back of your mind when ranking Carroll. He’s too good to be scared off by it, but my tolerance for injury risk might be higher than yours. 2024 Projection: 121/28/85/.288/.374/.496/52

4) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 23.3 – When Julio gets off to a slow start in 2024, remind yourself not to panic. 2023 was the 2nd year in a row where it took him a minute to hit his stride. He put up a mediocre .721 OPS in 87 games pre break before exploding in the 2nd half, slashing .308/.363/.578 with 19 homers and 15 steals in 68 games. He crushes the ball with a 92.7 MPH EV that led to 32 homers, and he’s lightning fast with a 29.6 ft/sec sprint that led to 37 steals. The only weakness he has that the guys ranked above him don’t have is a poor approach. His 37.4% chase rate is well below average and so is his 28.2% whiff%. I’m betting on the plate approach improving as he gains more experience, but the guys ranked above him are already further along. 2024 Projection: 104/33/105/.280/.341/.507/38

5) Shohei “(deferred) Money” Ohtani LAD, RHP/DH, 29.9 – First there were asterisks for juiced players. Then there were asterisks for juiced balls. And now there are asterisks for juiced contracts. The 700* million dollar man (*680 million of it deferred) tore the UCL in his right elbow in August and seems like he opted to go with an internal brace procedure rather than get his 2nd Tommy John surgery in 5 years. It’s still a serious surgery that will prevent him from pitching until 2025, but he’s expected to be good to go as hitter at the start of 2024. As we saw with Bryce Harper, the odds Ohtani will continue to be an elite hitter are very high, but we can’t be surprised if he doesn’t get back to prime form until the 2nd half. He was in the midst of the best offensive season of his career with career highs everywhere you look (EV, wOBA, xwOBA, K%, BB%, Hard Hit%), and his 180 wRC+ led the league by a good margin (Judge was 2nd at 174). I’m not concerned with Ohtani’s bat at all, but it’s fair to question his ability to stay healthy as a pitcher. His stuff is so good with a 96.8 MPH fastball that he could probably stand to lose a tick or two and still be near elite. He also strikes me as the type who will thrive in his old age with diminished velocity, so I’m far from writing him off as a pitcher, but I do believe you have to factor in the added risk. 2024 Projection: 96/33/94/.277/.380/.538/18

6) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, OF, 25.3 – Maybe it was the shoulder, maybe it was the wrist, or maybe it was the lack of PED’s, but it’s undeniable that Tatis had some of his upside shaved off the top in 2023. His barrel% was down 10.3 percentage points to 11%, his exit velocity was down 2 MPH to 91.9 MPH, his hard hit% was down 6.3 percentage points to 49.3%, and his xwOBA was down .039 to .368. He also wore down as the season went along with a .871 OPS in the 1st half versus a .665 OPS in the 2nd half. But take a look at all of those numbers. Even with him being considerably worse than his prime, he was still an elite fantasy player with 25 homers and 29 steals in 141 games. He missed all of 2022, he had to rehab both his shoulder and wrist surgeries over the off-season, and he also had to deal with so much controversy, whether it was self inflicted or not. He’ll actually be able to have a normal off-season going into 2024, and he’s still only 25 years old, which makes me think what he did in 2023 is his floor. And considering he also got unlucky (.332 wOBA vs. .368 xwOBA which is in the top 10% of the league), his floor is probably even higher than that. The decline in production takes him out of the conversation to be the #1 dynasty player overall, but this is still an easy Top 10 dynasty asset at the very least. 2024 Projection: 98/33/96/.274/.348/.515/31

7) Juan Soto NYY, OF, 25.6 – This is a contract year for Soto, and Scott Boras is his agent. He hasn’t really had that crazy career year yet. 2020 looked like it could have been that year with 13 homers and 202 wRC+ in 49 games, but it was a shortened season. What I’m trying to say is, the Baseball Gods owe him one, and his move from one of the very worst ballparks for lefty homers to one of the very best only adds fuel to that fire (I’m expecting him to start pulling the ball just a bit more). He doesn’t run enough with only 12 steals to truly be considered in the same tier as the guys ranked above him, but in any league that devalues speed, he is right there with them. He’s an OBP God with an 18.6% BB% and .410 OBP. It’s his 4th year in a row with more walks than strikeouts. His 6.7 degree launch is low, but he’s launch proof with a 98.7 MPH FB/LD EV that is 4th best in all of baseball. It led to a career high 35 homers. Everything seems to be setting up for Soto to have one of those silly statistical seasons that won’t even look real, and then he will land one of those silly contract numbers that won’t even look real. 2024 Projection: 115/38/115/.287/.422/.546/13

8) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 27.2 – Just call him the quiet killer because no elite player gets less hype than Kyle Tucker. He was one homer shy of going 30/30, and he did it while putting up career bests in both K% (13.6%) and BB% (11.9%). He has well below average speed with a bottom 33% sprint speed, but he once again proved stolen bases are not just about pure speed, there is a major skill component to it as well. Maybe it’s fitting he has the shortest blurb out of his elite dynasty brethren, because he’ll just continue to quietly kill your fantasy competition. No fanfare necessary. 2024 Projection: 99/30/115/.285/.365/.520/28

9) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 22.3 – Call me crazy, but I’m actually encouraged by Elly’s 33.7% K%, 29.7% whiff%, and .235 BA in his age 21 year old season in the major leagues. In last year’s Top 1,000 Rankings, I projected Elly’s 2023 triple slash would be .232/.294/.433, and it ended up being .235/.300/.410. Not bad if I don’t say so myself, but point being, this is exactly what you should have expected. He also had a 26.9%/14.0% K%/BB% in 38 games at Triple-A, which proves he is capable of making real improvements to his plate approach over time (30.9%/7.7% K%/BB% at Double-A in 2022). And his hit tool only needs to get to below average to be an absolute fantasy monster. The power is elite with a 91.2 MPH EV and 119.2 Max EV which was the 3rd highest mark in the league. It came with a 3.6 degree launch, but he has the type of power that is launch proof (13 homers in 98 games), and he’s never had any major groundball issues in the minors, so that number is only coming up. He also has elite speed with 35 steals and a 30.5 ft/sec sprint speed which was tied for the fastest man in baseball with Bobby Witt. I always say, “if you can’t take risks in fantasy, where can you take risks,” and I’m not even sure Elly is as risky as people think. I’m all in. 2024 Projection: 91/25/85/.244/.317/.452/52 Prime Projection: 103/33/109/.261/.337/.506/65

10) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 26.9 – The only two categories Yordan isn’t a beast in are games played and steals. He dealt with left hand soreness in March that delayed the start of his spring training, he missed about a week in April with a neck injury, and he missed almost 2 months in June and July with an oblique injury. It limited him to just 114 games. The surgeries he’s gotten on both of his knees are also still fresh in everyone’s mind, but the fact that none of his issues had to do with his knees is encouraging to me. He played in 135 games in 2022 and 144 games in 2021. I think it’s one year too early to really slap him with the injury prone tag. And he’s too elite to be too risk averse with a career .978 OPS and a .440 xwOBA in 2023, which was the 3rd best mark in the league behind only Judge and Acuna. I’m not getting too hung up on the injury risk quite yet. 2024 Projection: 94/37/111/.296/.403/.589/1

11) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 26.8 – While many were jumping ship after a down and injured 2022, I kept the faith by ranking Robert 30th overall, and he responded with the type of year we all knew he was capable of, slashing .264/.315/.542 with 38 homers, 20 steals, and a 28.9%/5.0% K%/BB% in 145 games. He laughed in the face of chase rate (40.5%) and chased his way to a career best 15.4% barrel%. His speed bounced back with a top 16% sprint speed, and he played in a career high 145 games. I wish I could say he is now completely out of the woods and we can trust him completely, but the injury black cloud always seems to be lurking. His season ended on September 24th with a sprained MCL in his knee which would have kept him out for up to a month if the season didn’t end a week later. He also dealt with hamstring, quad, calf, hip, and finger injuries throughout the season. Rostering Robert definitely feels like playing Press Your Luck, begging to avoid any whammies (no whammies, no whammies, no whammies, STOP). Robert is elite enough where you can’t live completely in fear of his next injury, but projecting him for a fully healthy season feels optimistic. 2024 Projection: 88/32/84/.268/.320/.528/19

12) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 31.11 – Judge’s 97.6 MPH EV is the highest average exit velocity in the history of Statcast. The only years Judge didn’t lead the league in average exit velocity was 2015 when he was in the minors, and 2020 during the shortened season. His .468 xwOBA not only led the league, and it wasn’t only a career high, it was the highest xwOBA amongst qualified hitters in history if you take out 2020 (Soto put up a .475 xwOBA that season in 49 games). And he did all of this while gutting it out in the 2nd half with a torn ligament in his big toe which knocked him out for almost 2 months in June and July. He isn’t expected to need surgery this off-season, which is a good sign, and he had a 1.066 OPS in September, so I’m inclined to not harp too much on the injury. 2024 Projection: 121/46/119/.283/.405/.594/9

13) Bryce Harper PHI, 1B, 31.6 – Harper was nice enough to leave zero doubt that his power will fully return to prime form in 2024 coming off Tommy John surgery. After hitting just 3 homers in first 58 games, he turned it around by launching 23 homers in his final 79 games, including the postseason. He returned way ahead of schedule anyway, so it’s not surprising he wasn’t fully healthy until the 2nd half. I would expect your typical elite Harper season in 2024, and he strikes me as the type of all time great that will be raking deep into his 30’s. 2024 Projection: 107/35/100/.289/.400/.540/14

Shadow13) Shohei Ohtani LAD, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.9 – This is where I would rank Ohtani in weekly leagues or as a hitter only. 2024 Projection: 96/33/94/.277/.380/.538/18

14) Mookie Betts LAD, 2B/OF, 31.6 – Betts played 70 games at 2B in 2023 and it was announced he will be LA’s starting 2B moving forward. He immediately becomes the best 2B in baseball. He is in the midst of a later career power surge, which makes up for his declining speed. After hitting a career high 35 homers in 2022, he topped that in 2023 by jacking out 39 dingers. His 92.4 MPH EV and 20.6 degree launch were both career highs, and his 48.5% Hard Hit% was the 2nd best mark of his career. As I mentioned, his speed is declining with a bottom 47% of the league sprint speed, but he still used his wiles to nab 14 bags. He may not be in his physical prime anymore, but Betts proved in 2023 that he has plenty of years of elite production left in him. 2024 Projection: 120/34/91/.290/.381/.536/13

15) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 31.6 – Mookie Betts’ beastly season is a reminder that not every year can be a banger. It wasn’t Ramirez’ best season with only 24 homers in 156 games, but there is absolutely nothing in the underlying numbers that would be concerning in the slightest, and we know his power is fine after watching him drop Anderson on a single punch. He’s also not slowing down on the bases at all with 28 steals. Even in a down-ish year, he still finished 29th overall on the Razzball Player Rater. 2024 Projection: 94/31/101/.281/.360/.511/26

16) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 23.1 – Harris’ surface stats took a step back in his 2nd year in the bigs with a .808 OPS in 2023 vs. a .853 OPS in 2022, but his underlying numbers actually showed a player who was improving. His contact rates took a big step forward with a 18.7% K% (24.3% in 2022), his EV took a 1.4 MPH jump to 90.9 MPH, his launch increased by 3.1 degrees to 7.6, and his xwOBA increased by .020 to .355. He hit .293 with 18 homers and 20 steals in 138 games, and he was even better in his final 100 games with a .912 OPS. He still needs to improve his plate approach with a 4.6% BB%, but Harris cemented his status as a near elite dynasty asset in 2023. 2024 Projection: 91/23/82/.287/.333/.480/27

17) Trea Turner PHI, SS, 30.9 – I was pounding the table to buy low on Turner all season, but he came on too strong at the end of the year to get any discount on him this off-season. He slashed .339/.391/.677 with 16 homers, 9 steals and 16.9% K% in his final 47 games, and he’s currently destroying the playoffs with a 222 wRC+ in 11 games. He had a .656 OPS in his first 108 games. He also hasn’t lost even half a step with the 4th fastest sprint speed in the game. That buy low window slammed shut hard at the trade deadline. 2024 Projection: 105/25/83/.289/.340/.481/35

18) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 20.1 – Baseball now uses minor leaguers like guinea pigs, testing out every hairbrained idea they have all willy nilly, and Chourio got caught in the crosshairs of it. The Southern League used a pre-tacked ball for the first half of the season, and Chourio put up a lowly .714 OPS in 71 games. When they went back to the regular ball, he immediately went gangbusters, slashing .324/.379/.538 with 11 homers, 21 steals, and a 13.4%/8.0% K%/BB% in 57 games. He closed out the season at Triple-A where he put up a 4.2%/8.3% K%/BB% in 6 games. He did all of this as a 19 year old. The power/speed combo is plus to double plus, and it sure looks like his contact rates are entering the elite range if you ignore what he did in the 1st half. Jackson Holliday seems to be the consensus #1 prospect in the game (and Wyatt Langford is the trendy #1 for fantasy), but if Chourio hit with the regular ball all season, I’m not so sure that would be the case. The main thing Holliday has over Chourio right now is plate approach, which makes him the safer prospect, but for fantasy, I gotta give the ever so slight edge to the power/speed combo. Milwaukee showed us they are all in by signing him to an 8 year, $82 million contract. It makes it much more likely that he will break camp with the team, and even if doesn’t, it won’t be long until he’s up for good. Chourio is my #1 fantasy prospect. 2024 Projection: 69/21/75/.258/.320/.469/25 Prime Projection: 101/32/104/.283/.353/.523/41

19) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 20.4 – Holliday’s power/speed combo really wasn’t that huge with only 12 homers and 24 steals (in 33 attempts) in 125 games spread across 4 levels (A, A+, AA, AAA). It dropped off even further in the upper minors with 5 homers and 4 steals in 54 games. It seems crazy to start his blurb off with criticism, but when the battle for the top prospect in the game is so close, it needs to be highlighted. Now that we got that out of the way, Holliday had an absolutely insane season where he slashed .323/.442/.499 with a 20.3%/17.4% K%/BB%. He was in high school last year, and he displayed one of the most advanced plate approaches of any prospect all the way through Triple-A. This is why everyone drools over kids with baseball bloodlines, they tend to be far advanced beyond their years. As I mentioned, the power isn’t fully developed yet with relatively low flyball rates, but he hits the ball hard with a 30.2% Hard Hit% and a 90.9 MPH EV in 40 batted balls at Triple-A, so I’m not concerned about the power long term. He has the safety edge over Chourio, but it’s not like Chourio is a risky prospect, so Holliday slots in at #2 for me. 2024 Projection: 78/16/71/.270/.339/.441/20 Prime Projection: 117/27/94/.296/.382/.506/28

20) Wyatt Langford TEX, OF, 22.5 – I have Chourio, Holliday, and Langford in a tier of their own atop my Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings. The only reason Langford is 3rd is because Chourio/Holliday have a longer professional track record and more impressive age to level production. But his power, speed, hit tool, plate approach, and production can rival anyone’s. He was selected 4th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft on the back of elite production in the SEC, slashing .373/.498/.784 with 21 homers, 9 steals, and a 44/56 K/BB in 64 games. He clearly separated himself from Dylan Crews in his pro debut, slashing .360/.480/.677 with 10 homers, 12 steals, and a 17.0%/18.0% K%/BB% in 44 games, and he was equally as dominant in the upper minors as he was the lower minors. He’s the total package, and if you wanted to rank him 1st overall on prospects rankings, I wouldn’t argue with you. 2024 Projection: 81/26/77/.262/.338/.479/18 Prime Projection: 103/34/109/.277/.364/.535/24

21) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 25.5 – If Strider’s 3.86 ERA opens up even the smallest buy window, I would be all over it. He had a 3.04 xERA, 2.92 xFIP, and 2.86 SIERA. His 22 homers against weren’t bad at all, so you can’t even blame a homer problem. ERA is just about the least predictive stat there is. He got unlucky. Simple as that. His 36.8%% K% led the league by a large margin, and strikeouts are king in fantasy. Glasnow was 2nd at 33.4% and Skubal was 3rd at 32.9%. His control continued to improve with an above average 7.6% BB%, and he proved he can handle a full workload with 186.2 IP. He also led the league in wins with 20, and while that was partly due to good luck, Atlanta is a perennial winner, so he should continue to be among the league leaders there. He was the #1 fantasy pitcher in 2024, and considering his age and strikeout upside, he’s in a tier of his own as the easy #1 overall pitcher in dynasty. 2024 Projection: 16/3.18/1.04/266 in 182 IP

22) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 25.0 – Vlad got very unlucky in 2023. His .374 xwOBA (top 7% of the league) vs. .340 wOBA was the 8th largest differential in baseball, and this is the first year he’s ever underperformed his underlying numbers, so this isn’t a trend for him. He crushes the ball with a 92.1 MPH EV, he makes near elite contact with a 14.7% K%, and he raised his launch to a career high 10.5 degrees. With that type of profile, he simply can’t be held down for long. The only thing rattling around my head that gives me some pause is that the only season he really had a beastly year, 2021, was the year he played over half his home games at their spring training ballpark and Triple-A ballpark, both of which played like extreme hitter’s parks. If you take that year out of the equation, he’s really yet to display the ability to be a truly elite fantasy player, but at the end of the day (and the beginning of the day), the underlying numbers don’t lie. He looks setup for a big 2024. 2024 Projection: 92/31/101/.286/.359/.507/6

23) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 27.5 – There is no fancy analysis needed for Devers. He rips the ball (93.1 MPH) with a swing geared for both power and average (12.4 degree launch). His plate approach has also slowly been improving with a career best 19.2%/9.5% K%/BB%. The guy is as safe and consistent as they come. 2024 Projection: 93/34/106/.280/.358/.513/5

24) Austin Riley ATL, 3B, 27.0 – Riley is Devers’ righthanded brother from another mother. The plate approach might only be average-ish, but he rips the ball (92.3 MPH EV) with a swing geared for both power and average (13.5 degree launch). He’s averaging 36 homers with a .285 BA over his last 3 seasons. 2024 Projection: 97/36/102/.274/.347/.519/3

25) Freddie Freeman LAD, 1B, 34.7 – The only question with the 34 year old Freeman is how much longer can he keep it up. I’m ranking him this high because I’m betting on him being productive deep into his 30’s, but he was the 3rd overall fantasy player this year, so this ranking does actually include an age discount. He showed zero signs of decline in 2023 with a .409 xwOBA which was in the top 2% of the league. He’s never had an xwOBA that wasn’t in at least the top 4% of the league in the Statcast era. He’s possibly the most consistently great hitter of his generation. He also took advantage of the new rules with a career high by far 23 steals. Certainly in win now mode Freeman isn’t going anywhere, but even in a rebuild I wouldn’t feel that much pressure to move him. 2024 Projection: 120/30/101/.313/.396/.528/18

26) Francisco Lindor NYM, SS, 30.5 – Lindor put up the quietest 30/30 (actually 31/31) season of all time. He somehow found the fountain of youth with career best power numbers and a major speed bounce back. He notched career bests in EV (91.2 MPH), Barrel% (10.4%), and launch angle (19.2 degrees). His sprint speed hit a 5 year high of 28.2 ft/sec, and he took advantage of the new rules with a career high 31 steals. He managed to do all of this with a bone spur in his elbow which required surgery this off-season, but with how many guys rake right through torn UCL’S and barely miss any time after getting Tommy John surgery, I’m not even sure you need elbows at all to hit. 2024 Projection: 100/30/96/.258/.337/.475/26

27) Matt Olson ATL, 1B, 30.0 – Olson led the league in homers with 54. Schwarber’s 47 was a distant 2nd. His already double plus power leveled up to truly elite levels with a career high in Barrel% (16.4%), EV (93.7 MPH), Max EV (118.6 MPH), Hard Hit% (55.5%) and xwOBA (.394). His .283 BA was probably on the lucky side with a .263 xBA, but the days of being concerned about his hit tool are over with a 23.2%/14.% K%/BB%. 2023 strikes me as a career year, but Olson is one of the premier power hitters in baseball. 2024 Projection: 104/42/119/.267/.368/.549/1

28) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 22.9 – If Gunnar took advantage of the new stolen base rules like almost everyone else, Gunnar vs. Carroll would still look very close today, but he only attempted 13 steals in 150 games. It’s not like he couldn’t have run more with a 28.8 ft/sec sprint and a solid 77% success rate, so if he just decides to start running more in 2024, he could quickly rise up the dynasty rankings even further. Even with the modest steal totals, there is a ton to love, led by how hard he crushes the ball. His 92 MPH EV is in the top 9% of the league, and he unsurprisingly raised his launch angle much higher than in his MLB debut in 2022 (2 degrees) with an 11.4 degree launch. He also cemented the huge jump his hit tool took in 2022 with a 25.6%/9.0% K%/BB% this year. It all led to a 123 wRC+ with 28 homers. The only issue he hasn’t corrected is his struggles vs. lefties with a .618 OPS, but Baltimore looks committed to playing him everyday and not turning him into a platoon guy, so I have faith he will hit them well enough over time. Keep in mind he will still be only 22 at the start of next season. 2024 Projection: 97/30/91/.266/.341/.506/15

29) Corey Seager TEX, SS, 29.11 – I ranked Seager 38th overall last off-season, starting his Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “Seager doesn’t get the respect he deserves in the fantasy world,” and I ended it by writing, “If he hits .300 next year with 35 homers it wouldn’t be surprising at all.” He blew past even my high expectations with a .327 BA and an over 40 homer pace if he didn’t miss time. If you include the postseason, he hit almost exactly 35 homers in 136 games (36 homers). He’s an elite hitter with a 93.3 MPH EV, 13 degree launch, .413 xwOBA, and 16.4%/9.1% K%/BB%. Nobody will be underrating him anymore, but the only snafu is that he underwent hernia surgery in late January, which puts the start of his season in question. It doesn’t impact his dynasty value too much, but he’s about to enter his 30’s, and injuries like this can start to take their toll. 2024 Projection: 89/32/98/.291/.369/.538/2

30) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 29.5 – Alonso’s .205 BABIP was dead last among qualified hitters. He has a career .259 BABIP and he had a .279 BABIP in 2022. Point being, his .217 BA is going to bounce back in a big way in 2024, especially considering he has no contact issues with a 22.9%/9.9% K%/BB%. What you’re buying is the elite power anyway, and it was in prime form with 46 homers (3rd most in the league). If that low BA opens up even a crack of buy low value, jump on it. 2024 Projection: 94/42/120/.253/.346/.516/4

31) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 27.3 – I kept the faith on Albies after his down year in 2022, ranking him 40th overall on the Top 1,000 Rankings, and closed out his blurb by writing, “The bottom line is that both the surface and underlying numbers look bad, but his youth and track record is strong enough to overlook it. I seriously doubt he’s all of a sudden not that good.” He rewarded my faith by having a major bounce back in 2023 with a career high 33 homers and career high 124 wRC+. The only thing that didn’t bounce back was his sprint speed which sat at a mediocre 27.5 ft/sec. It resulted in only 13 steals in a year where steals exploded, and while he’s been a very successful base stealer in his career, he was never the type to truly run a ton. 2024 Projection: 98/29/93/.268/.327/.485/15

32) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 26.1 – Bichette’s speed and launch angle are both headed in the wrong direction. He’s putting up old man sprint speeds at just 25 years old with a bottom 42% of the league mark. His sprint speed was in the top 17% of the league in 2019. He missed time with knee tendinitis in August, so maybe that played a role, but his sprint speed was also way down in 2022. It resulted in only 5 steals in 135 games. That seriously cuts down his upside because he’s not a monster home run hitter either with a career worst 6.2 degree launch that resulted in 20 homers. It’s not all bad news though as Bichette still hits the ball very hard with a 90.2 MPH EV and he still makes a ton of contact with a 19.1% K%. His .361 xwOBA was actually a career high. he had a .306 BA and he’s never had a BA under .290 in his 5 year career. BA guys are not my favorite to go after for fantasy, but I’m not willing to classify Bichette as “BA guy” quite yet. Development isn’t linear, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him faster with a higher launch in 2024, and even if he doesn’t improve in those areas, he’s still an impact fantasy hitter. 2024 Projection: 89/25/94/.296/.340/.483/12

33) Royce Lewis MIN, 3B, 24.9 – Royce goes in for ACL surgeries like he’s going in for a tune-up, because he always comes right back firing on all cylinders. He showed double plus power with 19 homers in 64 games (including the playoffs) on the back of a 95.1 MPH FB/LD EV, a 114 MPH Max EV (top 10% of the league), and a 16.2 degree launch. He still has above average to plus speed with a 28.2 ft/sec sprint despite the knee injuries (6 steals), and his plate approach, which was once a bit of a concern as a prospect, was about average with a 23%/8.4% K%/BB%. It all led to a 155 wRC+ in 58 games. When he’s on the field, he’s done nothing but destroy levels since 2022. I implored you to keep buying through the knee surgeries, writing in last years Top 1,000, “I named Lewis a player to target last off-season, imploring you to buy the dip coming off a torn ACL. Now it’s deja vu all over again with Lewis once again down with a torn ACL, and once again I’m imploring you to buy the dip.” … so hopefully you already have him on your team. If not for the added injury risk, which I think you have to at least consider, he might have ranked 15 spots higher. 2024 Projection: 77/29/88/.272/.339/.485/16

34) Jazz Chisholm MIA, OF, 26.2 – Jazz was on pace to go 30/30 if he played a full season (19/22 in 97 games). I know “if he played a full season” is the big question mark as he’s yet to play more than 124 games in his 3 year career, but we would have been talking about him as Top 10 dynasty asset if he played in 140+ games. Ranking him at “only” 33rd overall is the injury discount, and the discount is necessary because unfortunately the injury risk is real. A turf toe injury in May kept him out for 6 weeks which required surgery after the season. He’s expected to be fully healthy going into 2024, but a pretty major surgery during the off-season where he won’t be able to run for at least 3 months isn’t optimal. He also hit the IL for a month during the season with an oblique strain. He played in only 60 games in 2022 and needed surgery on his back and knee that year. The injuries are piling up, but he’ll only be 26 on opening day, and he still has his plus power/speed combo with a 90.4 MPH EV and 28.4 ft/sec sprint. The 30.8%/6.8% K%/BB% isn’t great, but his 27% chase% is slightly above average, and he has a career .245 BA in 1,193 PA, so I’m not too worried about the hit tool tanking. Jazz is one healthy season away from being talked about with the best in the fantasy game. 2024 Projection: 74/26/79/.247/.315/.462/28

35) Jordan Walker STL, OF, 21.10 – The vibe seems to be that Jordan Walker was a bust, or at least a disappointment, but in my book, his value took a jump in 2023. He was a 20/21 year old in the majors who put up a well above average 116 wRC+ in 117 games. He hit the ball hard with an 89.4 MPH EV, he had plus speed with a 28.6 ft/sec sprint, he had an average plate approach with a 22.4%/8.0% K%/BB%, and all the hand wringing over his launch angle early in the season proved to be unfounded with a solid 10.2 degree launch. We can’t expect every prospect to immediately put up MVP numbers when we demand they get called up as 19/20/21 year olds. Being an above average MLB hitter at Walker’s age is extremely, extremely impressive, and for me, it puts him right on track to become the beast we all thought he would be last off-season. 2024 Projection: 87/26/85/.271/.340/.469/15 Prime Projection: 98/31/102/.279/.356/.513/17

36) Junior Caminero TBR, 3B/SS, 20.9 – Caminero was a popular breakout pick this year (me included), and he more than lived up to the consensus hype by going full phenom beast mode. He made a mockery of High-A pitching with 11 homers and a 190 wRC+ in 36 games, and then he barely slowed down at Double-A with 20 homers and a 140 wRC+ in 81 games. He even improved his plate approach at Double-A with a 17.1%/9.1% K%/BB% (25.2%/6.3% at High-A). He completed the phenom cycle by jumping straight from Double-A to the majors as a 20 year old for a cup of coffee (he ordered the cold brew with a .631 OPS in 36 PA, but it obviously doesn’t mean much). His calling card is double plus power with a good feel to hit that reminds me of a righty version of Rafael Devers. And while he didn’t run a ton (5 for 10 on the bases), he put up a 28.6 ft/sec sprint speed in the majors, so he’ll certainly contribute in the category at the least. Tampa Bay is forever crowded, but a player like Caminero forces the issue. 2024 Projection: 47/17/54/.260/.323/.462/5 Prime Projection: 96/35/109/.284/.349/.525/10

37) Eury Perez MIA, RHP, 21.0 – Perez is going to be one of the greatest pitchers we’ve ever seen. He’s 6’8”, 220 pounds with a 97.5 MPH fastball and 3 double plus to elite secondaries. The slider notched a 47.7% whiff% and .226 xwOBA, the curve notched a 54.3% whiff% and .216 xwOBA, and the changeup notched a 46.2% whiff% and .161 xwOBA. He was 20 years old in the majors and put up a pitching line of 3.15/1.13/108/31 in 91.1 IP. The 33.7% whiff% is elite. He’s never had control problems in his career and that will probably end up plus too. The only thing that could stop him is injuries, which unfortunately has to be factored in for all young flamethrowers who have yet to throw a full MLB workload (128 IP is his career high). 2024 Projection: 12/3.36/1.09/193 in 160 IP Prime Projection: 16/2.82/0.96/240 in 180 IP

38) Randy Arozarena TBR, OF, 29.1 – Arozarena couldn’t maintain his blistering start to the season with a much better 1st half (.855 OPS) than 2nd half (.700 OPS), but it all evened out to a typical Arozarena season. He put up a 126 wRC+ in 2023, a 124 wRC+ in 2022, and a 127 wRC+ in 2021. He went at least 20/20 in each season. The man is consistent. He hits the ball very hard (91.7 MPH EV), he put up a career best 11.3 degree launch, he doesn’t have strikeout issues (23.9% K%), he has plus speed (28.4 ft/sec sprint), and he gets on base with a career best 12.2% BB%. That’s a near elite fantasy asset. 2024 Projection: 92/22/84/.260/.355/.442/27

39) Cody Bellinger FRA, OF/1B, 28.9 – Bellinger massively improved his contact rates with a career best 15.6% K% (27.3% in 2022) and career best 20.1% whiff% (27.2% in 2022). It led to a major bounce back season, slashing .307/.356/.525 with 26 homers, 20 steals, and a 15.6%/7.2% K%/BB% in 130 games. It wasn’t only the improved contact rates, he should also thank MLB for the juicier balls as his lowly 91 MPH FB/LD EV with a 17.2 degree launch likely wouldn’t have gotten the job done in 2022 with the dead balls. His 20 steals were a career high (thank you new rules) and his .319 BABIP was a career high (thank you no shift). Was Bellinger on the rules committee this off-season? He was certainly on the lucky side with a .370 wOBA vs. .331 xwOBA, but as long as the ball and rules stay the same, his contact/speed/lift profile should provide very nice fantasy numbers. 2024 Projection: 84/28/91/.268/.327/.470/17

40) Adolis Garcia TEX, OF, 31.1 – Everybody was scared off by the terrible plate approach, so Garcia went ahead and made massive improvements to it. His BB% rose 4.2 percentage points to a well above average 10.3% and his chase rate dropped 8 percentage points to a nearly average 29.3%. That’s remarkable, and it’s a reminder that a player’s plate approach tends to improve as they gain experience, hence why it’s often called a “mature” plate approach. The improved patience didn’t take away any of his power with 39 homers, a 92.1 MPH EV, and a 15.7 degree launch. The only quibble with his season is that his sprint speed dropped considerably to 27.3 ft/sec, and he stole only 9 bags in 10 attempts. With the speed decline and age, it’s hard to predict a major bounce back there, but the maturing at the dish more than makes up for it as he gets deeper into his 30’s. 2024 Projection: 94/35/103/.254/.330/.505/13

41) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 21.7 – The only question is how much power will Carter get to, because the plate approach and speed are impregnable at this point. He’s a line drive hitter who didn’t exactly smash the ball in the minors, although a 89/95.8 MPH AVG/FB EV in his 75 PA MLB debut shows he’s not some light hitting weakling. He’s also 6’4”, 190 pounds and only 21 years old, so more raw power is certainly coming. He hit 12 homers in 105 games at mostly Double-A (133 wRC+), then he set the baseball world on fire by hitting 5 homers in his first 23 games in the majors (180 wRC+), and finally he closed out the year with 1 homer in 17 playoff games (155 wRC+). That’s 18 homers in 145 games. If he can just get to about 25 homers in his prime, the man is going to be a terror. The speed is double plus with a 29.5 ft/sec sprint speed (31 steals overall), and the plate approach is elite. He had a 9% chase% in his MLB debut and he’s been an elite plate approach guy his entire career in the minors. He struggles vs. lefties, but just like with Gunnar Henderson last year, I wouldn’t let that scare you off an elite prospect. The downside is a .260 hitter with 15 homers and 25 steals, which isn’t that bad, and the upside is a .280/25/35 guy. 2024 Projection: 87/18/72/.263/.334/.429/26 Prime Projection: 105/24/80/.278/.367/.468/31

42) Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 25.6 – Cruz was showing major plate approach gains, in an admittingly small sample, before a broken ankle from a home plate collision ended his season. He had a 20%/17.5% BB% K%/BB% in 9 games after putting up a 34.9%/7.8% K%/BB% in 2022. It was a very small sample, but it’s what I expected to happen as Cruz never showed that level of plate approach issues in the minors. Super tall players will always have some swing and miss in their game, but that is acceptable when the talent is huge, and Cruz most certainly has huge talent with an at least plus power/speed combo. If the injury creates any type of discount, I would be all over it. 2024 Projection:  78/27/83/.251/.333/.471/20

43) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 21.8 – I would completely ignore what Lawlar did in his super small sample, 34 PA MLB debut. Don’t even look at his Statcast page, it will only get in your head. Your focus should be on the pitchers he laid waste to in the upper minors. He slashed .278/.378/.496 with 20 homers, 36 steals, and a 20.6%/11.4% K%/BB% in 105 games at Double-A and Triple-A. His contact rates took a big step forward from 2022 (25.1% K%), he has truly elite speed with a 30.1 ft/sec sprint speed, and he hit the ball fairly hard, especially for a 20 year old, with a 31.8% Hard Hit%. He’s 6’2”, 190 pounds with room to add more muscle, so the power is only going up from here. He has legitimate Top 10 dynasty asset potential. 2024 Projection: 69/14/55/.248/.317/.410/25 Prime Projection: 103/24/84/.273/.351/.470/38

44) Gerrit Cole NYY, RHP, 33.7 – Cole’s strikeouts took a major step back in 2023, and that lasted throughout the entire season. His K% was down 5.4 percentage points to 27% and his whiff% was down 7.9% to 26%. The whiffs were down on all of his pitches. He still performed like a true ace with pitching line of 2.63/0.98/222/48 in 209 IP, and the stuff was still huge with a 96.7 MPH fastball, but his 3.48 xERA, 3.60 xFIP, and 3.63 SIERA all say he got lucky. With an elite stud like Cole who has a long track record, you don’t want to slice and dice the numbers too much, but he will be 33 next year, and everyone is human. Even if the strikeouts don’t bounce back, he’s as safe as an ace as there is (say that 10 times fast), but there are some indications he might be coming back to the pack a bit. 2024 Projection: 15/3.27/1.05/230 in 200 IP

45) Matt McLain CIN, 2B/SS, 24.8 – While we’re all drooling over AFL breakouts right now, here is a reminder that McLain tanked in the AFL in 2022 with a .190 BA and 31.2% K%, before becoming one of the biggest MLB breakouts in 2023. He slashed .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers, 14 steals, and a 28.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in 89 games. He obliterated Triple-A too with a 184 wRC+ in 40 games. He has double plus speed with a 29 ft/sec sprint and he has above average power with a 89.3 MPH EV and 13.8 degree launch. His plate approach wasn’t great with a 28.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in the majors, but his chase rate was above average at 25.4%, and his 28% whiff% shows he isn’t going to have any major contact issues. He also had a 20.6%/16.7% K%/BB% in the minors. And the cherry on top is that he is a good defensive player, so he should be safe from the playing time crunch. McLain is the real deal. 2024 Projection: 87/26/83/.269/.343/.468/24

46) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 22.11 – Volpe might be easier to acquire this off-season than he was last off-season, which is wild, but is also par for the course in dynasty leagues. If rookies don’t immediately Corbin Carroll the league, people get discouraged and throw the bust label around. In reality, Volpe’s value should be considerably higher after the year he just had. Not only did he go 20/20 (21/24), but all of the underlying numbers are screaming a future breakout is coming with a 9% barrel%, 88.7 MPH EV, 14.2 degree launch, and 28.4 ft/sec sprint speed. The 27.8%/8.7% K%/BB% wasn’t great, but it’s far from the danger zone, and it’s really not bad for a 21/22 year old who had 99 total PA at Triple-A coming into the year. If cold hard numbers aren’t your thing, Volpe even has Black Magic on his side. His OPS was the number of the beast, .666. I don’t know what is going to happen to Volpe’s soul, but the Devil keeps his promises. Max Kepler was the only player to have a .666 OPS in 2022, and this season he had the highest wRC+ of his career at 124 (.816 OPS). Literally all signs, both natural and supernatural, are pointing towards a big 2024 for Volpe. He’s an easy target. 2024 Projection: 81/25/79/.245/.316/.451/31

47) Jose Altuve HOU, 2B, 33.11 – Altuve was in prime form yet again with a 154 wRC+, .311 BA, 17 homers and 14 steals in 90 games. A broken thumb delayed the start of his season until mid May, and an oblique injury kept him out for most of July, but he was no worse for the wear when on the field. The only crack in the armor is a career low by far 26.9 ft/sec sprint (28.1 ft/sec in 2022). It didn’t stop him from running, but it is the first sign of a true physical decline. He’s been so dominant the last 2 years I almost want to ignore his age and speed decline, but how much longer can the 5’6” Altuve maintain his elite production? 2024 Projection: 101/28/73/.285/.371/.496/19

48) Corbin Burnes BAL, RHP, 29.5 – Burnes had one of the best disappointing seasons of all time. I guess that is what happens when expectations are through the roof. He put up a pitching line of 3.39/1.07/200/66 in 193.2 IP, but it still feels like he was a bust somehow. The 25.5% K% was 5 percentage points lower than 2022 and 11.2 percentage points lower than his peak. His 8.4% BB% was 2 percentage points higher than 2022 and 3.2 percentage points higher than his peak. His velocity was down a tick or two on all of his pitches, and his most used pitch, the cutter (55.4% usage), put up a career worst by far 22.7% whiff%. It sure seems like his days of being so far out in front of the pack are over, but this current iteration of him is still damn good. The trade to Baltimore doesn’t really impact his dynasty value is any meaningful way in either direction. 2024 Projection: 15/3.21/1.03/218 in 190 IP

49) CJ Abrams WAS, SS, 23.6 – It’s almost like they made the new rules and new ball specifically for Abrams. The juicier ball helped his below average power play up (87.4 MPH EV with 18 homers), the banned shift helped lefties the most (all lefties saw their BA increase from .239 in 2022 to .249 in 2023), and the bigger bases/pickoff rules sparked him to start running a ton again (7 steals in 2022 vs. 47 steals in 2023). It wasn’t only the new rules though, he also leveled up by increasing his barrel%, EV, launch, and BB%. Even with all of those gains, he was still a below average hitter with a 90 wRC+, and while he has the type of power/speed combo to thrive in fantasy while being a bad real life hitter, that profile has a way of catching up to you. Considering he’s still only 23 years old, and proved his ability to make meaningful improvements in 2023, I’m betting on him continuing to improve and becoming the fantasy beast we all expected when he was an elite prospect. 2024 Projection: 87/17/71/.267/.321/.430/42

50) Pablo Lopez MIN, RHP, 28.1 – Lopez’ 4-seamer exploded with a 1.4 MPH velocity bump to 94.9 MPH and it immediately turned into one of the best 4-seamers in the game with a 31.5% whiff%. His sweeper, changeup, and curve are all above average to plus pitches that miss bats. His control is plus with a 6% BB% and he induces weak contact with an 87.1 MPH EV against. He definitely broke out in 2023 with a 3.66 ERA and 29.2% K% in 194 IP, but he’s been a really, really good pitcher since 2020, so it’s more of him staying healthy and leveling up. He’s a complete ace. 2024 Projection: 14/3.35/1.13/220 in 185 IP

51) Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 24.3 – Casas has the potential to become one of the next great all around 1B mashers, and we saw what that could look like in the 2nd half of 2023. He slashed .317/.417/.617 with 15 homers and a 23.4%/14.2% K%/BB% in his final 54 games. He smashes the ball with a 91.1/95.2 MPH AVG/FB EV, he lifts the ball with a 15.7 degree launch, he hit lefties well with a .817 OPS, he has no contact issues, and he’s an OBP beast. His .371 xwOBA was in the top 8% of the league, and that includes his slow start. He also hits in a great ballpark. The 1B position is starting to age a bit with Votto, Goldy, and Freeman all getting up there, and I think Casas has the upside to be in the next generation of greats to take their place. I don’t think he will get quite the respect he deserves this off-season. 2024 Projection: 93/32/94/.273/.375/.520/1

52) Manny Machado SDP, 3B, 31.9 – I’ve been all over Machado’s every other year voodoo thing that’s happening. Here is what I wrote in his 2023 Top 1,000 blurb, “I could do an extensive analysis of the underlying numbers, but I’m afraid there are larger forces at play here. Who am I to question the universe? Machado is due for one of his good but not standout seasons in 2023” … hah! I mean, he literally had one of his good but not standout seasons with a 114 wRC+ in 138 games. I don’t even want to waste my time going through all the numbers, we all know what’s going to happen. He’s due for a beastly 2024. 2024 Projection: 86/32/98/.274/.336/.490/8

53) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 32.8 – It was another injury plagued year for Trout with only 82 games played. Nobody can be surprised by that, can they? This year it was a hamate fracture in his wrist which required surgery and effectively ended his season on July 3rd. He’s averaged 79 games over his past 3 years. It’s not only the missed games, the injuries seem to be taking a toll on his performance as it looks like he’s entering a decline phase. The power still looks great with 18 homers and a 91.9 MPH EV, but the .263 BA and 28.7% K% were both career worsts, and a continuation of a decline from 2022. His 12.4% BB% is also much lower than his prime years. He’s still very fast with a 29.5 ft/sec sprint, and while he’s long since stopped running, it shows he hasn’t fallen off a cliff athletically. If he can stay on the field, he should still put up big power numbers at the least, but he simply hasn’t been able to stay on the field. 2024 Projection: 88/35/86/.273/.371/.538/4

54) George Kirby SEA, RHP, 26.2 – Kirby’s 2.5% BB% didn’t only lead all qualified starters, it led all pitchers with more than 24 IP. Elite control isn’t high enough praise. He has generational control. And he uses that generational control to dominate with a fastball heavy profile led by a 96.1 MPH double plus 4-seamer. Neither of his breaking balls generate many whiffs, but his slider induces weak contact, and he’s incorporating a splitter more which killed it with a .202 xwOBA and 35.7% whiff%. He didn’t start throwing the splitter until the 2nd half, and his strikeout totals immediately ticked up. He was great in 2023 with a pitching line of 3.35/1.04/172/19 in 190.2 IP, and I think he’s going to take another step forward in 2024. 2024 Projection: 14/3.31/1.02/183 in 185 IP

55) Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD, RHP, 25.7 – The Dodgers made Yamamoto the highest paid pitcher in history with a 12 year, $325 million contract (plus a $50 million posting fee). That is really all you need to know. He’s expected to be a true ace right from the get go, and signing with the best developmental team in the game also takes a lot of the risk out of his transition to a new ball, new country, new league etc … He’s been a true ace in Japan for years now, and that continued this year with a pitching line of 1.16/0.86/176/28 in 171 IP. He pitched 193 innings in both 2021 and 2022, so there also isn’t any concern of how many innings he can pitch. The fastball sits mid 90’s and regularly hits the upper 90’s. A nasty splitter is his most used secondary, and he also throws a very good curve, 2-seamer, and cutter. He has elite command over all of his pitches, and he has an unique, oddly athletic delivery which he varies constantly to mess with hitters timing. He’s a straight up nightmare to face, and looks like a ready made ace. 2024 Projection: 14/3.42/1.11/195 in 180 IP

56) Zack Wheeler PHI, RHP, 33.10 – Not only isn’t the 33 year old Wheeler slowing down, he’s reaching new levels with a career best 28.6% whiff% and 5% BB%. The stuff is in peak form too with his 95.8 MPH fastball notching a career best .260 xwOBA and 31.4% whiff%. He even added a new pitch to his arsenal, the sweeper, and it was immediately a plus pitch with a .264 xwOBA and 39.2% whiff%. Who says you can’t teach an old dog new tricks? 2024 Projection: 14/3.28/1.06/208 in 190 IP

57) Luis Castillo SEA, RHP, 31.4 – Castillo’s 96.3 MPH 4-seam fastball was the third most valuable 4-seamer in the game (Cole and Gallen ranked 1st and 2nd), and his 33% whiff% on the pitch led all qualified starters. It led to another ace level season with a pitching line of 3.34/1.10/27.3%/7% in 197 IP. He’s a consistent, safe ace. 2024 Projection: 14/3.43/1.14/210 in 188 IP

58) Zac Gallen ARI, RHP, 28.8 – Gallen’s control has improved almost every season to the point he is nearly an elite control guy with a 5.6% BB%. His stuff isn’t overpowering, but it’s very good with 3 above average to plus pitches in his 93.6 MPH 4-seamer, curve (40.6% whiff%), and changeup (31.4% whiff%). He also mixes in a decent cutter and occasional slider. It was good for a pitching line of 3.47/1.12/220/47 in 210 IP. The stuff isn’t really on the level as some of the aces ranked above him, but he’s done nothing but produce in his career. 2024 Projection: 14/3.43/1.10/204 in 195 IP

59) Noelvi Marte CIN, 3B, 22.6 – Everyone called Marte fat and slow this off-season, so of course he put up double plus run times in the majors with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. Be super wary of scouting speed grades as they are wildly inaccurate (see also, Henry Davis and Nolan Jones). Not only is he a speedster, but he crushed the ball with a 91.3 MPH EV, and the hit tool looked good with a 20.3% K% and .296 xBA in 123 MLB PA. It all resulted in a slash line of .316/.366/.456 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 20.3%/6.5% K%/BB%. He showed those same skills in the upper minors with 11 homers, 18 steals, and a .279 BA in 92 games. He did all of this as a 21-year-old. He’s fast, he hits it hard, he gets the bat on the ball, he produced in the upper minors, he produced in the majors, and he was super young. Quite simply, this is an elite fantasy prospect, and I’m not sure he gets the respect he deserves. 2024 Projection: 77/19/73/.261/.322/.431/22 Prime Projection: 96/27/91/.276/.354/.491/25

60) Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 22.1 – Starting this blurb with anything other than the 73 wRC+ and 0 homers Crews put up in 85 PA at Double-A would be beating around the bush, and you know me, I don’t beat around the bush. The performance was bad enough to have Wyatt Langford clearly pass him for the top spot in first year players drafts (Wyatt’s dominance also had something to do with that), and it might have me considering going with the ready made ace in Yoshinobu Yamamoto over him too, but that is where it ends. 85 PA isn’t enough to sour me on the 2nd overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. Crews is built like a solid rock at 6’0”, 203 pounds, and he swings the bat so fast and powerfully it almost looks like he’s using an illegally light bat (he’s not, at least I don’t think he is ha). The ball explodes off it on contact. He obliterated the SEC from the second he stepped on campus as a freshman, and he kept on improving through his junior year, slashing .380/.498/.689 with 58 homers, 23 steals, and a 146/152 K/BB in 196 career games. He also destroyed the lower minors with a 192 wRC+ in 71 PA at Single-A. His floor feels like a 30+ homer bat without the best BA or tons of steals, but the ceiling is that of a truly elite dynasty player. 2024 Projection: 62/20/71/.257/.329/.473/12 Prime Projection: 94/32/103/.274/.361/.518/16

61) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 21.2 – The backlash to Dominguez’ early career hype made it hard to hold the line, but I remained all in on Dominguez last off-season, ranking him 10th overall, and he more than delivered on that ranking this year. He hit 15 homers with 37 steals and a 25.6%/15.2% K%/BB% in 109 games at Double-A as a 20 year old. Then he quickly ran through Triple-A with a 180 wRC+ in 9 games, before finishing out his season with 4 homers and a 162 wRC+ in 8 games in the majors. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery put a halt to what was sure to be insane hype this off-season, but I wouldn’t let the Tommy John surgery scare you off. It isn’t as big of a deal for hitters as it is for pitchers, and he’s expected to return by the 2nd half of 2024. His extremely good MLB debut will likely make it hard to get good value for him this off-season even with the surgery, so my move would be to hope he needs to shake off some rust when he returns next season to bring his value into a more reasonable range again. 2024 Projection: 30/8/226/.242/.324/.438/10 Prime Projection: 92/26/86/.266/.361/.485/28

62) Freddy Peralta MIL, RHP, 27.10 – A shoulder injury in 2022 put some doubt into Peralta’s ace trajectory coming into 2023, but he proved that was merely a bump in the road. He put up career bests in fastball velocity (94.4 MPH), innings pitched (165.2 IP) and BB% (7.9%). He once again eclipsed a 30% K% at 30.9%. He was also at his best in the 2nd half with a 2.44 ERA and 92/11 K/BB in his final 62.2 IP. Peralta cemented his status as a young ace this year, but because his 3.86 ERA doesn’t look all that great, you might be able to buy him for non ace prices this off-season. 2024 Projection: 12/3.38/1.09/215 in 170 IP

63) Adley Rutschman BAL, C, 26.2 – Rutschman has an advantage over other catchers on playing time alone. His 687 PA led all catchers by far (William Contreras was 2nd at 611). It helps his fantasy profile play up, because he’s a better real life hitter than fantasy hitter with an elite plate approach (14.7%/13.4% K%/BB%) as his most valuable skill. I don’t mean to be too disparaging with that statement, because he has the potential to be a near elite real life hitter with a .373 xwOBA (top 8% of the league). The power is only slightly above average right now with a 92.7 MPH FB/LD EV, 7.5% Barrel%, and 12.6 degree launch, but this was his first full season in the majors, so this is basically the baseline. 2024 Projection: 88/22/85/.286/.381/.458/3

64) Kevin Gausman TOR, RHP, 33.3 – Remember when people were worried about Gausman going from San Francisco to Toronto? (I named him a target that year) Remember when people questioned if he can be consistent with a splitter as his main secondary? Well, those memories are fading as Gausman has been the model of consistency. He put up a pitching line of 3.16/1.18/237/55 in 185 IP. His 31.1% K% was the 3rd best mark in the league among qualified starters. He’s one of the safest aces out there. 2024 Projection: 14/3.30/1.16/214 in 180 IP

65) Blake Snell FRA, LHP, 31.4 – In my first Mailbag Podcast Podcast back in April, I got asked about how concerned we should be with Blake Snell after his rough start to the season, and my response was that he is the type of pitcher to find his groove and rip off like 4 straight starts of double digit strikeouts, so I would hold on. Well, not only did he rip off 4 straight starts, he ripped off 23 straight starts with a 1.20 ERA and 186/72 K/BB in his final 135 IP. He had a 5.40 ERA with a 48/27 K/BB in the 45 IP before that. The problem is, just as easily as he can get red hot, he can also go ice cold with a 13.3% BB% that was a career worst and in the bottom 4% of the league. You are playing with fire with such bad control, which prevents Snell from entering the truly elite pitching tier, but with his extreme strikeout upside and career 3.20 ERA, it would be silly to drop him any further than the tier right under that. 2024 Projection: 13/3.27/1.20/218 in 170 IP

66) Tarik Skubal DET, LHP, 27.4 – Skubal went in for a flexor tendon “upgrade” in August 2022, and he came out one of the best pitchers in baseball when he returned in July. I’m not even going to call it a “surgery,” because me thinks there are more than a few pitchers out there who should elect to have it if you can expect these results. He put up a pitching line of 2.80/0.90/102/14 in 80.1 IP. His fastball jumped 1.7 MPH to 95.8 MPH and it became arguably the best 4-seamer in baseball with a league leading .225 xwOBA (250 pitch min). His changeup was elite too with a 50.6% whiff% that was 3rd best. The slider and sinker were also both above average pitches. His 32.9% K% trailed only Strider and Glasnow. And to top it all off, his control improved to elite levels with a 4.5% BB%. That is almost unheard of for control to actually improve directly coming off major arm surgery. He’ll have to prove he can keep up this level over a full season, but if he can, he’ll be in the conversation for the #1 fantasy starter next year. 2024 Projection: 13/3.36/1.05/190 in 155 IP

67) Nolan Jones COL, OF, 25.11 – You can’t leave the house these days without hearing Nolan Jones this and Nolan Jones that, but I was ringing the 5 alarm bell on Jones back in my June Targets Article, closing out the blurb by writing, “Jones has no joke near elite potential … I would go hard after him.” After that writeup he put up a 1.007 OPS with 11 homers and 14 steals in his final 57 games. He went 20/20 in just 107 games on the season. His speed was vastly underrated as a prospect with a well above average 28.4 ft/sec sprint (are scouts just making up speed grades for most prospects?), but they nailed his power grade with an at least plus 90.1/95.3 MPH AVG/FB EV. He’s also an OBP machine with a 12.5% BB%. The two downsides are that he’s always had high strikeout rates with a 29.7% K%, and he’s never had a high launch angle with a 9.8 degree launch. Coors Field and the low launch should help his BA from completely tanking, but he’s not going to repeat a .401 BABIP. Unfortunately, he played far too well to have much value left on the bone this off-season, but if you took my advice back in June, you already have him. 2024 Projection: 86/26/88/.255/.352/.486/23

68) Jesus Luzardo MIA, LHP, 26.7 – I was super high on Luzardo last off-season, trusting the improved control he showed in the 2nd half of 2022, and that proved wise as his 7.4% BB% was actually above average this year. He also stayed healthy, putting up a pitching line of 3.58/1.21/208/55 in 178.2 IP. The stuff is filthy with a 96.7 MPH fastball, an elite slider that put up a 51.8% whiff% (only Snell and Strider can top that), and a solid changeup that misses bats (36.1% whiff%). He officially fulfilled his ace upside status. 2024 Projection: 13/3.49/1.15/202 in 175 IP

69) Kodai Senga NYM, RHP, 31.2 – Senga blew past all reasonable expectations in 2023. He put up a 2.98 ERA with a 29.1%/11.1% K%/BB% in 166.1 IP, and he was even better in the 2nd half with a 2.44 ERA and 29.8%9.1% K%/BB% in his final 84.2 IP. He did it on the back of an insane forkball that put up a 59.8% whiff% and .184 xwOBA. It was the highest whiff% on any pitch in all of baseball thrown at least 317 times (and if you lower the threshold all the way down to 54 pitches, it was the 4th highest mark). He throws gas with a 95.6 MPH fastball and has as diverse 6 pitch mix. Control is really the only thing that can tank him, and if you take into account he was adjusting to a new league and new ball in the 1st half of the season, his 2nd half 9.1% BB% really isn’t bad at all. It’s definitely possible he takes another step forward in year 2. 2024 Projection: 13/3.37/1.17/197 in 165 IP

70) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 24.5 – Rodriguez had a 7.35 ERA in his first 45.1 IP before Baltimore sent him back down, but he was different man when they called him back up, putting up a 2.58 ERA and 24%/6.9% K%BB% in his final 76.2 IP. He throws a 5 pitch mix led by a 97.4 MPH fastball and three above average to plus secondaries in his changeup, slider, and curve (he mixes in a cutter too). Even in his dominant 2nd half run, he didn’t really excel in any one area. He didn’t miss a ton of bats, the control wasn’t elite, and he didn’t particularly induce a ton of weak contact. It makes me a little hesitant to say he will be a true fantasy ace next season, but with his level of stuff and minor league performance, it seems inevitable he will get there eventually. 2024 Projection: 13/3.59/1.13/181 in 170 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.23/1.01/220 in 190 IP

71) Tyler Glasnow LAD, RHP, 30.7 – Glasnow is 30 years old and he just reached a career high 120 IP this season. An oblique injury was the culprit this year which delayed the start of his year until late May. When he’s on the mound, it’s crystal clear his fantasy upside is matched by very, very few. His 33.4% K% was bested by only Spencer Strider. The stuff is huge with a 96.4 MPH fastball, and the control is above average with a 7.6% BB%. If you want to look on the bright side, it wasn’t an arm injury which got him this year, and if you want to include the minors and the AFL, he threw 144.2 IP in 2014 and 140 IP in 2016. If you want to completely ignore the injury risk, I can see going 30 spots higher on him. The Dodgers doling out a 5 year, $136 million contract extension for him also gives added confidence that a smart organization is willing to bet on him staying healthy enough over the next 5 years to earn that contract. 2024 Projection: 12/3.48/1.11/190 in 145 IP

72) Max Fried ATL, LHP, 30.2 – Fried missed 3 months of the season with a forearm strain, but he looked completely healthy when he returned with his 4th straight year of ace production. He had a pitching line of 2.55/1.13/25.7%/5.8% in 77.2 IP. He induces weak contact with a 86.5 MPH EV against (top 9% of the league), he keeps the ball on the ground with a 4.8 degree launch, he has plus control, and he misses bats with a 27.2% whiff%. 2024 Projection: 14/3.18/1.10/175 in 175 IP

73) James Wood WAS, OF, 21.7 – The K% jumped to 33.7% in 87 games at Double-A, which is exactly what you are worried about with a player this tall (6’6”), but Wood is the type of unicorn athlete where you don’t want to let it scare you off him. He still cracked 18 homers with 10 steals and a 124 wRC+ at the level as a 20 year old. And that was coming off a 155 wRC+ in 42 games at the more age appropriate High-A. Despite his size and high strikeout rate, Wood has a relatively short and quick swing which gives hope he’ll be able to keep the strikeout rate in a range that allows his truly elite talent shine. Don’t expect a high BA, but expect him to kill it everywhere else. 2024 Projection: 45/17/51/.229/.308/.450/13 Prime Projection: 91/30/99/.253/.341/.508/18

74) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 22.0 – I’ve been all in on Pete Crow since before he was drafted, and he finally fulfilled his elite prospect destiny in 2023. The power took yet another step forward with him jacking 20 homers in 107 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s not an EV masher, but he doesn’t hit the ball weakly either, and his high launch will ensure he gets the most out of his still growing raw power. The CF defense and speed are elite with a 29.9 ft/sec sprint speed and 37 steals. There is bit more swing and miss than optimal with a 26% K%, but he’s always generally had a good feel to hit, and he’s never had low BA’s in the minors, so I’m not overly concerned about it. Armstrong has 20/40 written all over him. 2024 Projection: 41/9/29/.241/.310/.407/19 Prime Projection: 91/22/76/.257/.334/.439/34

75) Lane Thomas WAS, OF, 28.7 – Part of me feels like Thomas is a trap. The plate approach isn’t great (5.3% BB%), the hit tool is mediocre (25.8% K%), he was on the lucky side last year (.334 xwOBA vs. .319 wOBA), and the launch isn’t very high (10.8 degrees). But the things he does do well are the things that can result in a fantasy stud. He hits the ball fairly hard (94.6 MPH FB/LD EV), he’s fast (29.3 ft/sec sprint), and he gets the bat on the ball (23% whiff%). If you do those three things well, good things are most certainly going to happen. So while I came into this blurb intending to call Thomas a sell high, the more I really looked into it and thought about his profile, the more I realized he is a buy. I’m in. 2024 Projection: 87/25/83/.257/.318/.465/18

76) Marcus Semien TEX, 2B 33.7 – Projecting stolen bases can be a mystery wrapped in a riddle inside an enigma. Semien stole 25 bases in 2022, and with the new rules in 2023 when everyone was running wild, he stole only 14 bags. He’s as fast and healthy as he’s ever been, but his career high before 2022 was 15, so maybe it should have been expected. He made up for modest steal totals with a career best 14.6% K% and .276 BA (2nd best mark in his career). He also continues to get the most out of his average raw power with a 19.1 degree launch and 49.4% Pull% (29 homers). 2024 Projection: 103/28/86/.266/.335/.474/15

77) Logan Gilbert SEA, RHP, 26.11 – Gilbert is an elite control pitchers (4.7% BB%) with a big fastball (95.7 MPH) and improving secondaries. The whiff% was up 7.1 percentage points on his slider to a respectable 32.2%, 7.3 percentage points on his curveball to 30.6%, and his new splitter was at least plus when he went to it (14.8% usage) with a .185 xwOBA and 34.7% whiff%. Improving the secondaries was the last step to unleash his full potential, and while his 3.73 ERA and 24.5% K% in 190.2 IP doesn’t jump off the screen, it gives him the potential to level up even further in 2024. 2024 Projection: 14/3.54/1.12/193 in 187 IP

78) Aaron Nola PHI, RHP, 30.10 – Nola likely had the worst season of his career (other than his rookie season) taking into account both surface stats and underlying numbers. His 4.46 ERA was the 3rd worst mark of his career and his 3.77 xERA was the worst of his career. A 8.3% Barrel%, 89.3 MPH EV, and 32 homers against were all career worsts, and his 25.5% K% was a 7 year low. Nothing was so bad or so out of the realm of his career norms, and he’s been alternating great years with mediocre years for his entire career, so I don’t think this is the beginning of a true decline. The Phillies obviously agree as they just signed him for 7 years at $172 million. 2024 Projection: 12/3.61/1.12/205 in 190 IP

79) Framber Valdez HOU, LHP, 30.4 – It was a tale of 2nd halves for Framber as he had a 2.27 ERA with a 104/21 K/BB in his first 99 IP and 4.64 ERA with a 96/36 K/BB in his final 99 IP. He also got hit up in 12 playoff innings. The velocity was up on all of his pitches with a 95.3 MPH sinker (93.9 MPH in 2022), but it seems like it actually hurt him as his once insanely elite launch angle (negative 3.6 degrees in 2022) rose all the way to a positive 4.2 degrees. He missed a few more bats with a career high 26.7% whiff%, and his control was a bit better with a 7.1% BB%, but it didn’t make up for all extra flyballs, leading to a 3.46 ERA and 4.33 xERA. He’s a very, very good pitcher no matter how you slice it, but the extreme groundball rate was his best asset, and you might not be able to fully count on that anymore. 2024 Projection: 13/3.41/1.15/192 in 195 IP

80) Riley Greene DET, OF, 23.6 – Greene underwent Tommy John surgery on his non throwing elbow in late September, but since elbows seem to be optional for hitting anyway, he’s expected to be good to go for 2024. I still think you have to give some leeway for rust, especially in the 1st half, but long term, it shouldn’t be an issue. He was in the process of his first breakout before going down with the injury with an 11.3% Barrel%, 91.6/96.1 MPH AVG/FB EV, .363 xwOBA, and 28.1 ft/sec sprint speed. It led to .288 BA with 11 homers, and 7 steals in 99 games (a broken fibula kept him out for over a month in June). I said “first” breakout, because he has more levels in him if he can raise his 6.6 degree launch and improve on his 27.4%/8.4% K%/BB%, which I would bet on him being able to do as he gains experience. There is a chance Greene ends up a better real life hitter than fantasy, but he can potentially be such a good real life hitter that he’ll still be a fantasy beast. 2024 Projection: 86/20/77/.268/.335/.448/12 Prime Projection: 97/27/89/.282/.354/.476/15

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Patreon Post: A Top 275 Sneak Peek of the 2024 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

Dynasty Baseball Rankings season is in full gear! The 2024 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings continues to get built out over on the Patreon with the Top 275. The Top 30 is free here on the Brick Wall. Analysis, projections, and prime projections for every player. Here is A Top 275 Sneak Peek of the 2024 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

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-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)

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1) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 26.3 – Acuna went 40/70, but somehow the most mind blowing thing about his 2023 season is that he all of a sudden turned into an elite contact hitter with an 11.4% K% (23.6% in 2022). He also must have eaten his spinach this off-season, because the six foot Acuna Popeye’d the league with the type of exit velocity numbers usually reserved for giant human beings only. His 121.2 Max EV was the hardest hit ball all season. The next 6 leaders in that category were the 6’6” Giancarlo Stanton, the 6’5” Elly De La Cruz, the 6’4” Shohei Ohtani, the 6’5” Matt Olson, the 6’2” Jake Burger, and the 6’5” Yordan Alvarez. His 94.7 MPH AVG EV was bested only by the superhuman Aaron Judge (97.6 MPH). He got slower with a career worst 28 ft/sec sprint, but he still stole 73 bags. He hit the ball on the ground more than ever with a career high 49.5% GB%, but he still hit 41 bombs. He’s the undisputed #1 overall dynasty player. 2024 Projection: 132/37/103/.318/.398/.582/61

2) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS, 23.10 – Witt is Exhibit A on why you should be betting on Anthony Volpe and Jordan Walker in 2024. When an elite prospect shows all the ingredients of a future breakout in their rookie year, you need to be all over whatever small discount you can get them for. These are the type of breakouts that look so obvious in hindsight, you forget you ever doubted them in the first place. Witt raised his FB/LD EV from 92.6 MPH in 2022 to 94.4 MPH in 2023 and all hell broke loose with him cracking 30 dingers. He also lowered his K% by 4 percentage points to 17.4% and raised his BB% by 1.1 percentage points to 5.8%. The scary thing is that he was on the unlucky side too with a .343 wOBA vs. .373 xwOBA. There is another level to unlock here. His .904 2nd half OPS is probably what he has in store for us in 2024. 2024 Projection: 102/34/107/.283/.336/.522/47

3) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 23.7 – The 5’10” Carroll laughs at me for even hinting that the 6’0” Acuna isn’t big. Carroll truly had to deal with the little man discrimination his entire career, falling to a ridiculous 16th overall in the 2019 MLB Draft (I ranked him 3rd overall personally). He’s done nothing but prove the doubters wrong since then, culminating with a rookie season that immediately catapulted him to elite dynasty status. He smashed 25 homers with a 90 MPH EV. Nobody doubted his speed, and he didn’t disappoint with 54 steals and a 30.1 ft/sec sprint. The cherry on top is that he put up career best contact rates with a 19.4% K%, and that includes his entire minor league career going back to rookie ball. The only thing that could stop him is the major shoulder injury he suffered in 2021 which reared it’s ugly head again this July. He doubled over in pain after a swing and said, “I took a swing, and I felt a shift in my shoulder, shocking, tingling sensation go down my arm and then my hand go numb. I was just holding it thinking it came out of the socket, pretty much thought that the season was over.” It ended up being “minor,” but I’m not sure how you can’t at least have that in the back of your mind when ranking Carroll. He’s too good to be scared off by it, but my tolerance for injury risk might be higher than yours. 2024 Projection: 121/28/85/.288/.374/.496/52

4) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 23.3 – When Julio gets off to a slow start in 2024, remind yourself not to panic. 2023 was the 2nd year in a row where it took him a minute to hit his stride. He put up a mediocre .721 OPS in 87 games pre break before exploding in the 2nd half, slashing .308/.363/.578 with 19 homers and 15 steals in 68 games. He crushes the ball with a 92.7 MPH EV that led to 32 homers, and he’s lightning fast with a 29.6 ft/sec sprint that led to 37 steals. The only weakness he has that the guys ranked above him don’t have is a poor approach. His 37.4% chase rate is well below average and so is his 28.2% whiff%. I’m betting on the plate approach improving as he gains more experience, but the guys ranked above him are already further along. 2024 Projection: 104/33/105/.280/.341/.507/38

5) Shohei “(deferred) Money” Ohtani LAD, RHP/DH, 29.9 – First there were asterisks for juiced players. Then there were asterisks for juiced balls. And now there are asterisks for juiced contracts. The 700* million dollar man (*680 million of it deferred) tore the UCL in his right elbow in August and seems like he opted to go with an internal brace procedure rather than get his 2nd Tommy John surgery in 5 years. It’s still a serious surgery that will prevent him from pitching until 2025, but he’s expected to be good to go as hitter at the start of 2024. As we saw with Bryce Harper, the odds Ohtani will continue to be an elite hitter are very high, but we can’t be surprised if he doesn’t get back to prime form until the 2nd half. He was in the midst of the best offensive season of his career with career highs everywhere you look (EV, wOBA, xwOBA, K%, BB%, Hard Hit%), and his 180 wRC+ led the league by a good margin (Judge was 2nd at 174). I’m not concerned with Ohtani’s bat at all, but it’s fair to question his ability to stay healthy as a pitcher. His stuff is so good with a 96.8 MPH fastball that he could probably stand to lose a tick or two and still be near elite. He also strikes me as the type who will thrive in his old age with diminished velocity, so I’m far from writing him off as a pitcher, but I do believe you have to factor in the added risk. 2024 Projection: 96/33/94/.277/.380/.538/18

6) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, OF, 25.3 – Maybe it was the shoulder, maybe it was the wrist, or maybe it was the lack of PED’s, but it’s undeniable that Tatis had some of his upside shaved off the top in 2023. His barrel% was down 10.3 percentage points to 11%, his exit velocity was down 2 MPH to 91.9 MPH, his hard hit% was down 6.3 percentage points to 49.3%, and his xwOBA was down .039 to .368. He also wore down as the season went along with a .871 OPS in the 1st half versus a .665 OPS in the 2nd half. But take a look at all of those numbers. Even with him being considerably worse than his prime, he was still an elite fantasy player with 25 homers and 29 steals in 141 games. He missed all of 2022, he had to rehab both his shoulder and wrist surgeries over the off-season, and he also had to deal with so much controversy, whether it was self inflicted or not. He’ll actually be able to have a normal off-season going into 2024, and he’s still only 25 years old, which makes me think what he did in 2023 is his floor. And considering he also got unlucky (.332 wOBA vs. .368 xwOBA which is in the top 10% of the league), his floor is probably even higher than that. The decline in production takes him out of the conversation to be the #1 dynasty player overall, but this is still an easy Top 10 dynasty asset at the very least. 2024 Projection: 98/33/96/.274/.348/.515/31

7) Juan Soto NYY, OF, 25.6 – This is a contract year for Soto, and Scott Boras is his agent. He hasn’t really had that crazy career year yet. 2020 looked like it could have been that year with 13 homers and 202 wRC+ in 49 games, but it was a shortened season. What I’m trying to say is, the Baseball Gods owe him one, and his move from one of the very worst ballparks for lefty homers to one of the very best only adds fuel to that fire (I’m expecting him to start pulling the ball just a bit more). He doesn’t run enough with only 12 steals to truly be considered in the same tier as the guys ranked above him, but in any league that devalues speed, he is right there with them. He’s an OBP God with an 18.6% BB% and .410 OBP. It’s his 4th year in a row with more walks than strikeouts. His 6.7 degree launch is low, but he’s launch proof with a 98.7 MPH FB/LD EV that is 4th best in all of baseball. It led to a career high 35 homers. Everything seems to be setting up for Soto to have one of those silly statistical seasons that won’t even look real, and then he will land one of those silly contract numbers that won’t even look real. 2024 Projection: 115/38/115/.287/.422/.546/13

8) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 27.2 – Just call him the quiet killer because no elite player gets less hype than Kyle Tucker. He was one homer shy of going 30/30, and he did it while putting up career bests in both K% (13.6%) and BB% (11.9%). He has well below average speed with a bottom 33% sprint speed, but he once again proved stolen bases are not just about pure speed, there is a major skill component to it as well. Maybe it’s fitting he has the shortest blurb out of his elite dynasty brethren, because he’ll just continue to quietly kill your fantasy competition. No fanfare necessary. 2024 Projection: 99/30/115/.285/.365/.520/28

9) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 22.3 – Call me crazy, but I’m actually encouraged by Elly’s 33.7% K%, 29.7% whiff%, and .235 BA in his age 21 year old season in the major leagues. In last year’s Top 1,000 Rankings, I projected Elly’s 2023 triple slash would be .232/.294/.433, and it ended up being .235/.300/.410. Not bad if I don’t say so myself, but point being, this is exactly what you should have expected. He also had a 26.9%/14.0% K%/BB% in 38 games at Triple-A, which proves he is capable of making real improvements to his plate approach over time (30.9%/7.7% K%/BB% at Double-A in 2022). And his hit tool only needs to get to below average to be an absolute fantasy monster. The power is elite with a 91.2 MPH EV and 119.2 Max EV which was the 3rd highest mark in the league. It came with a 3.6 degree launch, but he has the type of power that is launch proof (13 homers in 98 games), and he’s never had any major groundball issues in the minors, so that number is only coming up. He also has elite speed with 35 steals and a 30.5 ft/sec sprint speed which was tied for the fastest man in baseball with Bobby Witt. I always say, “if you can’t take risks in fantasy, where can you take risks,” and I’m not even sure Elly is as risky as people think. I’m all in. 2024 Projection: 91/25/85/.244/.317/.452/52 Prime Projection: 103/33/109/.261/.337/.506/65

10) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 26.9 – The only two categories Yordan isn’t a beast in are games played and steals. He dealt with left hand soreness in March that delayed the start of his spring training, he missed about a week in April with a neck injury, and he missed almost 2 months in June and July with an oblique injury. It limited him to just 114 games. The surgeries he’s gotten on both of his knees are also still fresh in everyone’s mind, but the fact that none of his issues had to do with his knees is encouraging to me. He played in 135 games in 2022 and 144 games in 2021. I think it’s one year too early to really slap him with the injury prone tag. And he’s too elite to be too risk averse with a career .978 OPS and a .440 xwOBA in 2023, which was the 3rd best mark in the league behind only Judge and Acuna. I’m not getting too hung up on the injury risk quite yet. 2024 Projection: 94/37/111/.296/.403/.589/1

11) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 26.8 – While many were jumping ship after a down and injured 2022, I kept the faith by ranking Robert 30th overall, and he responded with the type of year we all knew he was capable of, slashing .264/.315/.542 with 38 homers, 20 steals, and a 28.9%/5.0% K%/BB% in 145 games. He laughed in the face of chase rate (40.5%) and chased his way to a career best 15.4% barrel%. His speed bounced back with a top 16% sprint speed, and he played in a career high 145 games. I wish I could say he is now completely out of the woods and we can trust him completely, but the injury black cloud always seems to be lurking. His season ended on September 24th with a sprained MCL in his knee which would have kept him out for up to a month if the season didn’t end a week later. He also dealt with hamstring, quad, calf, hip, and finger injuries throughout the season. Rostering Robert definitely feels like playing Press Your Luck, begging to avoid any whammies (no whammies, no whammies, no whammies, STOP). Robert is elite enough where you can’t live completely in fear of his next injury, but projecting him for a fully healthy season feels optimistic. 2024 Projection: 88/32/84/.268/.320/.528/19

12) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 31.11 – Judge’s 97.6 MPH EV is the highest average exit velocity in the history of Statcast. The only years Judge didn’t lead the league in average exit velocity was 2015 when he was in the minors, and 2020 during the shortened season. His .468 xwOBA not only led the league, and it wasn’t only a career high, it was the highest xwOBA amongst qualified hitters in history if you take out 2020 (Soto put up a .475 xwOBA that season in 49 games). And he did all of this while gutting it out in the 2nd half with a torn ligament in his big toe which knocked him out for almost 2 months in June and July. He isn’t expected to need surgery this off-season, which is a good sign, and he had a 1.066 OPS in September, so I’m inclined to not harp too much on the injury. 2024 Projection: 121/46/119/.283/.405/.594/9

13) Bryce Harper PHI, 1B, 31.6 – Harper was nice enough to leave zero doubt that his power will fully return to prime form in 2024 coming off Tommy John surgery. After hitting just 3 homers in first 58 games, he turned it around by launching 23 homers in his final 79 games, including the postseason. He returned way ahead of schedule anyway, so it’s not surprising he wasn’t fully healthy until the 2nd half. I would expect your typical elite Harper season in 2024, and he strikes me as the type of all time great that will be raking deep into his 30’s. 2024 Projection: 107/35/100/.289/.400/.540/14

Shadow13) Shohei Ohtani LAD, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.9 – This is where I would rank Ohtani in weekly leagues or as a hitter only. 2024 Projection: 96/33/94/.277/.380/.538/18

14) Mookie Betts LAD, 2B/OF, 31.6 – Betts played 70 games at 2B in 2023 and it was announced he will be LA’s starting 2B moving forward. He immediately becomes the best 2B in baseball. He is in the midst of a later career power surge, which makes up for his declining speed. After hitting a career high 35 homers in 2022, he topped that in 2023 by jacking out 39 dingers. His 92.4 MPH EV and 20.6 degree launch were both career highs, and his 48.5% Hard Hit% was the 2nd best mark of his career. As I mentioned, his speed is declining with a bottom 47% of the league sprint speed, but he still used his wiles to nab 14 bags. He may not be in his physical prime anymore, but Betts proved in 2023 that he has plenty of years of elite production left in him. 2024 Projection: 120/34/91/.290/.381/.536/13

15) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 31.6 – Mookie Betts’ beastly season is a reminder that not every year can be a banger. It wasn’t Ramirez’ best season with only 24 homers in 156 games, but there is absolutely nothing in the underlying numbers that would be concerning in the slightest, and we know his power is fine after watching him drop Anderson on a single punch. He’s also not slowing down on the bases at all with 28 steals. Even in a down-ish year, he still finished 29th overall on the Razzball Player Rater. 2024 Projection: 94/31/101/.281/.360/.511/26

16) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 23.1 – Harris’ surface stats took a step back in his 2nd year in the bigs with a .808 OPS in 2023 vs. a .853 OPS in 2022, but his underlying numbers actually showed a player who was improving. His contact rates took a big step forward with a 18.7% K% (24.3% in 2022), his EV took a 1.4 MPH jump to 90.9 MPH, his launch increased by 3.1 degrees to 7.6, and his xwOBA increased by .020 to .355. He hit .293 with 18 homers and 20 steals in 138 games, and he was even better in his final 100 games with a .912 OPS. He still needs to improve his plate approach with a 4.6% BB%, but Harris cemented his status as a near elite dynasty asset in 2023. 2024 Projection: 91/23/82/.287/.333/.480/27

17) Trea Turner PHI, SS, 30.9 – I was pounding the table to buy low on Turner all season, but he came on too strong at the end of the year to get any discount on him this off-season. He slashed .339/.391/.677 with 16 homers, 9 steals and 16.9% K% in his final 47 games, and he’s currently destroying the playoffs with a 222 wRC+ in 11 games. He had a .656 OPS in his first 108 games. He also hasn’t lost even half a step with the 4th fastest sprint speed in the game. That buy low window slammed shut hard at the trade deadline. 2024 Projection: 105/25/83/.289/.340/.481/35

18) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 20.1 – Baseball now uses minor leaguers like guinea pigs, testing out every hairbrained idea they have all willy nilly, and Chourio got caught in the crosshairs of it. The Southern League used a pre-tacked ball for the first half of the season, and Chourio put up a lowly .714 OPS in 71 games. When they went back to the regular ball, he immediately went gangbusters, slashing .324/.379/.538 with 11 homers, 21 steals, and a 13.4%/8.0% K%/BB% in 57 games. He closed out the season at Triple-A where he put up a 4.2%/8.3% K%/BB% in 6 games. He did all of this as a 19 year old. The power/speed combo is plus to double plus, and it sure looks like his contact rates are entering the elite range if you ignore what he did in the 1st half. Jackson Holliday seems to be the consensus #1 prospect in the game (and Wyatt Langford is the trendy #1 for fantasy), but if Chourio hit with the regular ball all season, I’m not so sure that would be the case. The main thing Holliday has over Chourio right now is plate approach, which makes him the safer prospect, but for fantasy, I gotta give the ever so slight edge to the power/speed combo. Milwaukee showed us they are all in by signing him to an 8 year, $82 million contract. It makes it much more likely that he will break camp with the team, and even if doesn’t, it won’t be long until he’s up for good. Chourio is my #1 fantasy prospect. 2024 Projection: 69/21/75/.258/.320/.469/25 Prime Projection: 101/32/104/.283/.353/.523/41

19) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 20.4 – Holliday’s power/speed combo really wasn’t that huge with only 12 homers and 24 steals (in 33 attempts) in 125 games spread across 4 levels (A, A+, AA, AAA). It dropped off even further in the upper minors with 5 homers and 4 steals in 54 games. It seems crazy to start his blurb off with criticism, but when the battle for the top prospect in the game is so close, it needs to be highlighted. Now that we got that out of the way, Holliday had an absolutely insane season where he slashed .323/.442/.499 with a 20.3%/17.4% K%/BB%. He was in high school last year, and he displayed one of the most advanced plate approaches of any prospect all the way through Triple-A. This is why everyone drools over kids with baseball bloodlines, they tend to be far advanced beyond their years. As I mentioned, the power isn’t fully developed yet with relatively low flyball rates, but he hits the ball hard with a 30.2% Hard Hit% and a 90.9 MPH EV in 40 batted balls at Triple-A, so I’m not concerned about the power long term. He has the safety edge over Chourio, but it’s not like Chourio is a risky prospect, so Holliday slots in at #2 for me. 2024 Projection: 78/16/71/.270/.339/.441/20 Prime Projection: 117/27/94/.296/.382/.506/28

20) Wyatt Langford TEX, OF, 22.5 – I have Chourio, Holliday, and Langford in a tier of their own atop my Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings. The only reason Langford is 3rd is because Chourio/Holliday have a longer professional track record and more impressive age to level production. But his power, speed, hit tool, plate approach, and production can rival anyone’s. He was selected 4th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft on the back of elite production in the SEC, slashing .373/.498/.784 with 21 homers, 9 steals, and a 44/56 K/BB in 64 games. He clearly separated himself from Dylan Crews in his pro debut, slashing .360/.480/.677 with 10 homers, 12 steals, and a 17.0%/18.0% K%/BB% in 44 games, and he was equally as dominant in the upper minors as he was the lower minors. He’s the total package, and if you wanted to rank him 1st overall on prospects rankings, I wouldn’t argue with you. 2024 Projection: 81/26/77/.262/.338/.479/18 Prime Projection: 103/34/109/.277/.364/.535/24

21) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 25.5 – If Strider’s 3.86 ERA opens up even the smallest buy window, I would be all over it. He had a 3.04 xERA, 2.92 xFIP, and 2.86 SIERA. His 22 homers against wasn’t bat at all, so you can’t even blame a homer problem. ERA is just about the least predictive stat there is. He got unlucky. Simple as that. His 36.8%% K% led the league by a large margin, and strikeouts are king in fantasy. Glasnow was 2nd at 33.4% and Skubal was 3rd at 32.9%. His control continued to improve with an above average 7.6% BB%, and he proved he can handle a full workload with 186.2 IP. He also led the league in wins with 20, and while that was partly due to good luck, Atlanta is a perennial winner, so he should continue to be among the league leaders there. He was the #1 fantasy pitcher in 2024, and considering his age and strikeout upside, he’s in a tier of his own as the easy #1 overall pitcher in dynasty. 2024 Projection: 16/3.18/1.04/266 in 182 IP

22) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 25.0 – Vlad got very unlucky in 2023. His .374 xwOBA (top 7% of the league) vs. .340 wOBA was the 8th largest differential in baseball, and this is the first year he’s ever underperformed his underlying numbers, so this isn’t a trend for him. He crushes the ball with a 92.1 MPH EV, he makes near elite contact with a 14.7% K%, and he raised his launch to a career high 10.5 degrees. With that type of profile, he simply can’t be held down for long. The only thing rattling around my head that gives me some pause is that the only season he really had a beastly year, 2021, was the year he played over half his home games at their spring training ballpark and Triple-A ballpark, both of which played like extreme hitter’s parks. If you take that year out of the equation, he’s really yet to display the ability to be a truly elite fantasy player, but at the end of the day (and the beginning of the day), the underlying numbers don’t lie. He looks setup for a big 2024. 2024 Projection: 92/31/101/.286/.359/.507/6

23) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 27.5 – There is no fancy analysis needed for Devers. He rips the ball (93.1 MPH) with a swing geared for both power and average (12.4 degree launch). His plate approach has also slowly been improving with a career best 19.2%/9.5% K%/BB%. The guy is as safe and consistent as they come. 2024 Projection: 93/34/106/.280/.358/.513/5

24) Austin Riley ATL, 3B, 27.0 – Riley is Devers’ righthanded brother from another mother. The plate approach might only be average-ish, but he rips the ball (92.3 MPH EV) with a swing geared for both power and average (13.5 degree launch). He’s averaging 36 homers with a .285 BA over his last 3 seasons. 2024 Projection: 97/36/102/.274/.347/.519/3

25) Corey Seager TEX, SS, 29.11 – I ranked Seager 38th overall last off-season, starting his Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “Seager doesn’t get the respect he deserves in the fantasy world,” and I ended it by writing, “If he hits .300 next year with 35 homers it wouldn’t be surprising at all.” He blew past even my high expectations with a .327 BA and an over 40 homer pace if he didn’t miss time. If you include the postseason, he hit almost exactly 35 homers in 136 games (36 homers). He’s an elite hitter with a 93.3 MPH EV, 13 degree launch, .413 xwOBA, and 16.4%/9.1% K%/BB%. Nobody will be underrating him anymore. 2024 Projection: 95/35/104/.291/.369/.538/3

26) Freddie Freeman LAD, 1B, 34.7 – The only question with the 34 year old Freeman is how much longer can he keep it up. I’m ranking him this high because I’m betting on him being productive deep into his 30’s, but he was the 3rd overall fantasy player this year, so this ranking does actually include an age discount. He showed zero signs of decline in 2023 with a .409 xwOBA which was in the top 2% of the league. He’s never had an xwOBA that wasn’t in at least the top 4% of the league in the Statcast era. He’s possibly the most consistently great hitter of his generation. He also took advantage of the new rules with a career high by far 23 steals. Certainly in win now mode Freeman isn’t going anywhere, but even in a rebuild I wouldn’t feel that much pressure to move him. 2024 Projection: 120/30/101/.313/.396/.528/18

27) Francisco Lindor NYM, SS, 30.5 – Lindor put up the quietest 30/30 (actually 31/31) season of all time. He somehow found the fountain of youth with career best power numbers and a major speed bounce back. He notched career bests in EV (91.2 MPH), Barrel% (10.4%), and launch angle (19.2 degrees). His sprint speed hit a 5 year high of 28.2 ft/sec, and he took advantage of the new rules with a career high 31 steals. He managed to do all of this with a bone spur in his elbow which required surgery this off-season, but with how many guys rake right through torn UCL’S and barely miss any time after getting Tommy John surgery, I’m not even sure you need elbows at all to hit. 2024 Projection: 100/30/96/.258/.337/.475/26

28) Matt Olson ATL, 1B, 30.0 – Olson led the league in homers with 54. Schwarber’s 47 was a distant 2nd. His already double plus power leveled up to truly elite levels with a career high in Barrel% (16.4%), EV (93.7 MPH), Max EV (118.6 MPH), Hard Hit% (55.5%) and xwOBA (.394). His .283 BA was probably on the lucky side with a .263 xBA, but the days of being concerned about his hit tool are over with a 23.2%/14.% K%/BB%. 2023 strikes me as a career year, but Olson is one of the premier power hitters in baseball. 2024 Projection: 104/42/119/.267/.368/.549/1

29) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 22.9 – If Gunnar took advantage of the new stolen base rules like almost everyone else, Gunnar vs. Carroll would still look very close today, but he only attempted 13 steals in 150 games. It’s not like he couldn’t have run more with a 28.8 ft/sec sprint and a solid 77% success rate, so if he just decides to start running more in 2024, he could quickly rise up the dynasty rankings even further. Even with the modest steal totals, there is a ton to love, led by how hard he crushes the ball. His 92 MPH EV is in the top 9% of the league, and he unsurprisingly raised his launch angle much higher than in his MLB debut in 2022 (2 degrees) with an 11.4 degree launch. He also cemented the huge jump his hit tool took in 2022 with a 25.6%/9.0% K%/BB% this year. It all led to a 123 wRC+ with 28 homers. The only issue he hasn’t corrected is his struggles vs. lefties with a .618 OPS, but Baltimore looks committed to playing him everyday and not turning him into a platoon guy, so I have faith he will hit them well enough over time. Keep in mind he will still be only 22 at the start of next season. 2024 Projection: 97/30/91/.266/.341/.506/15

30) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 29.5 – Alonso’s .205 BABIP was dead last among qualified hitters. He has a career .259 BABIP and he had a .279 BABIP in 2022. Point being, his .217 BA is going to bounce back in a big way in 2024, especially considering he has no contact issues with a 22.9%/9.9% K%/BB%. What you’re buying is the elite power anyway, and it was in prime form with 46 homers (3rd most in the league). If that low BA opens up even a crack of buy low value, jump on it. 2024 Projection: 94/42/120/.253/.346/.516/4

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-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)

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Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles (free)–Boston Red Sox (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Los Angeles Dodgers (free)–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Oakland Athletics–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 120 Second Baseman: 2024 Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings

It’s all about the perpetually underappreciated 2nd Baseman this week on the Patreon. Sure they weren’t good enough to play shortstop, but they are still slick fielding middle infielders. And I definitely don’t only have a chip on my shoulder about 2nd baseman being underappreciated because that was my main position growing up ;). Top 5 free here on the Brick Wall. Here is the Top 120 Second Baseman: 2024 Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

1) Mookie Betts LAD, 2B/OF, 31.6 – Betts played 70 games at 2B in 2023 and it was announced he will be LA’s starting 2B moving forward. He immediately becomes the best 2B in baseball. He is in the midst of a later career power surge, which makes up for his declining speed. After hitting a career high 35 homers in 2022, he topped that in 2023 by jacking out 39 dingers. His 92.4 MPH EV and 20.6 degree launch were both career highs, and his 48.5% Hard Hit% was the 2nd best mark of his career. As I mentioned, his speed is declining with a bottom 47% of the league sprint speed, but he still used his wiles to nab 14 bags. He may not be in his physical prime anymore, but Betts proved in 2023 that he has plenty of years of elite production left in him. 2024 Projection: 120/34/91/.290/.381/.536/13

2) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 27.3 – I kept the faith on Albies after his down year in 2022, ranking him 40th overall on the Top 1,000 Rankings, and closed out his blurb by writing, “The bottom line is that both the surface and underlying numbers look bad, but his youth and track record is strong enough to overlook it. I seriously doubt he’s all of a sudden not that good.” He rewarded my faith by having a major bounce back in 2023 with a career high 33 homers and career high 124 wRC+. The only thing that didn’t bounce back was his sprint speed which sat at a mediocre 27.5 ft/sec. It resulted in only 13 steals in a year where steals exploded, and while he’s been a very successful base stealer in his career, he was never the type to truly run a ton. 2024 Projection: 98/29/93/.268/.327/.485/15

3) Matt McLain CIN, 2B/SS, 24.8 – While we’re all drooling over AFL breakouts right now, here is a reminder that McLain tanked in the AFL in 2022 with a .190 BA and 31.2% K%, before becoming one of the biggest MLB breakouts in 2023. He slashed .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers, 14 steals, and a 28.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in 89 games. He obliterated Triple-A too with a 184 wRC+ in 40 games. He has double plus speed with a 29 ft/sec sprint and he has above average power with a 89.3 MPH EV and 13.8 degree launch. His plate approach wasn’t great with a 28.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in the majors, but his chase rate was above average at 25.4%, and his 28% whiff% shows he isn’t going to have any major contact issues. He also had a 20.6%/16.7% K%/BB% in the minors. And the cherry on top is that he is a good defensive player, so he should be safe from the playing time crunch. McLain is the real deal. 2024 Projection: 87/26/83/.269/.343/.468/24

4) Jose Altuve HOU, 2B, 33.11 – Altuve was in prime form yet again with a 154 wRC+, .311 BA, 17 homers and 14 steals in 90 games. A broken thumb delayed the start of his season until mid May, and an oblique injury kept him out for most of July, but he was no worse for the wear when on the field. The only crack in the armor is a career low by far 26.9 ft/sec sprint (28.1 ft/sec in 2022). It didn’t stop him from running, but it is the first sign of a true physical decline. He’s been so dominant the last 2 years I almost want to ignore his age and speed decline, but how much longer can the 5’6” Altuve maintain his elite production? 2024 Projection: 101/28/73/.285/.371/.496/19

5) Marcus Semien TEX, 2B 33.7 – Projecting stolen bases can be a mystery wrapped in a riddle inside an enigma. Semien stole 25 bases in 2022, and with the new rules in 2023 when everyone was running wild, he stole only 14 bags. He’s as fast and healthy as he’s ever been, but his career high before 2022 was 15, so maybe it should have been expected. He made up for modest steal totals with a career best 14.6% K% and .276 BA (2nd best mark in his career). He also continues to get the most out of his average raw power with a 19.1 degree launch and 49.4% Pull% (29 homers). 2024 Projection: 103/28/86/.266/.335/.474/15

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: TOP 76 C//TOP 98 1B
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100+ COMING SOON)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles (free)–Boston Red Sox (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Oakland Athletics–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: A Top 78 Sneak Peek of the 2024 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

The Patreon Sneak Peek Series rolls on with A Top 78 Sneak Peek of the 2024 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings. Top 16 are free here on the Brick Wall. More coming all off-season. Here is A Top 78 Sneak Peek of the 2024 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)
-Off-Season content includes team dynasty reports, deep positional rankings, predicting future prospects lists, strategy articles, podcasts and very, very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Colorado Rockies–Kansas City Royals–Milwaukee Brewers–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

1) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 26.3 – Acuna went 40/70, but somehow the most mind blowing thing about his 2023 season is that he all of a sudden turned into an elite contact hitter with an 11.4% K% (23.6% in 2022). He also must have eaten his spinach this off-season, because the six foot Acuna Popeye’d the league with the type of exit velocity numbers usually reserved for giant human beings only. His 121.2 Max EV was the hardest hit ball all season. The next 6 leaders in that category were the 6’6” Giancarlo Stanton, the 6’5” Elly De La Cruz, the 6’4” Shohei Ohtani, the 6’5” Matt Olson, the 6’2” Jake Burger, and the 6’5” Yordan Alvarez. His 94.7 MPH AVG EV was bested only by the superhuman Aaron Judge (97.6 MPH). He got slower with a career worst 28 ft/sec sprint, but he still stole 73 bags. He hit the ball on the ground more than ever with a career high 49.5% GB%, but he still hit 41 bombs. He’s the undisputed #1 overall dynasty player. 2024 Projection: 132/37/103/.318/.398/.582/61

2) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS, 23.10 – Witt is Exhibit A on why you should be betting on Anthony Volpe and Jordan Walker in 2024. When an elite prospect shows all the ingredients of a future breakout in their rookie year, you need to be all over whatever small discount you can get them for. These are the type of breakouts that look so obvious in hindsight, you forget you ever doubted them in the first place. Witt raised his FB/LD EV from 92.6 MPH in 2022 to 94.4 MPH in 2023 and all hell broke loose with him cracking 30 dingers. He also lowered his K% by 4 percentage points to 17.4% and raised his BB% by 1.1 percentage points to 5.8%. The scary thing is that he was on the unlucky side too with a .343 wOBA vs. .373 xwOBA. There is another level to unlock here. His .904 2nd half OPS is probably what he has in store for us in 2024. 2024 Projection: 102/34/107/.283/.336/.522/47

3) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 23.7 – The 5’10” Carroll laughs at me for even hinting that the 6’0” Acuna isn’t big. Carroll truly had to deal with the little man discrimination his entire career, falling to a ridiculous 16th overall in the 2019 MLB Draft (I ranked him 3rd overall personally). He’s done nothing but prove the doubters wrong since then, culminating with a rookie season that immediately catapulted him to elite dynasty status. He smashed 25 homers with a 90 MPH EV. Nobody doubted his speed, and he didn’t disappoint with 54 steals and a 30.1 ft/sec sprint. The cherry on top is that he put up career best contact rates with a 19.4% K%, and that includes his entire minor league career going back to rookie ball. The only thing that could stop him is the major shoulder injury he suffered in 2021 which reared it’s ugly head again this July. He doubled over in pain after a swing and said, “I took a swing, and I felt a shift in my shoulder, shocking, tingling sensation go down my arm and then my hand go numb. I was just holding it thinking it came out of the socket, pretty much thought that the season was over.” It ended up being “minor,” but I’m not sure how you can’t at least have that in the back of your mind when ranking Carroll. He’s too good to be scared off by it, but my tolerance for injury risk might be higher than yours. 2024 Projection: 121/28/85/.288/.374/.496/52

4) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 23.3 – When Julio gets off to a slow start in 2024, remind yourself not to panic. 2023 was the 2nd year in a row where it took him a minute to hit his stride. He put up a mediocre .721 OPS in 87 games pre break before exploding in the 2nd half, slashing .308/.363/.578 with 19 homers and 15 steals in 68 games. He crushes the ball with a 92.7 MPH EV that led to 32 homers, and he’s lightning fast with a 29.6 ft/sec sprint that led to 37 steals. The only weakness he has that the guys ranked above him don’t have is a poor approach. His 37.4% chase rate is well below average and so is his 28.2% whiff%. I’m betting on the plate approach improving as he gains more experience, but the guys ranked above him are already further along. 2024 Projection: 104/33/105/.280/.341/.507/38

5) Shohei Ohtani FRA, RHP/DH, 29.9 – Ohtani tore the UCL in his right elbow in August and opted to go with an internal brace procedure rather than get his 2nd Tommy John surgery in 5 years. It’s still a serious surgery that will prevent him from pitching until 2025, but he’s expected to be good to go as hitter at the start of 2024. As we saw with Bryce Harper, the odds Ohtani will continue to be an elite hitter are very high, but we can’t be surprised if he doesn’t get back to prime form until the 2nd half. He was in the midst of the best offensive season of his career with career highs everywhere you look (EV, wOBA, xwOBA, K%, BB%, Hard Hit%), and his 180 wRC+ led the league by a good margin (Judge was 2nd at 174). I’m not concerned with Ohtani’s bat at all, but it’s fair to question his ability to stay healthy as a pitcher. His stuff is so good with a 96.8 MPH fastball that he could probably stand to lose a tick or two and still be near elite. He also strikes me as the type who will thrive in his old age with diminished velocity, so I’m far from writing him off as a pitcher, but I do believe you have to factor in the added risk. 2024 Projection: 96/33/94/.277/.380/.538/18

6) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, OF, 25.3 – Maybe it was the shoulder, maybe it was the wrist, or maybe it was the lack of PED’s, but it’s undeniable that Tatis had some of his upside shaved off the top in 2023. His barrel% was down 10.3 percentage points to 11%, his exit velocity was down 2 MPH to 91.9 MPH, his hard hit% was down 6.3 percentage points to 49.3%, and his xwOBA was down .039 to .368. He also wore down as the season went along with a .871 OPS in the 1st half versus a .665 OPS in the 2nd half. But take a look at all of those numbers. Even with him being considerably worse than his prime, he was still an elite fantasy player with 25 homers and 29 steals in 141 games. He missed all of 2022, he had to rehab both his shoulder and wrist surgeries over the off-season, and he also had to deal with so much controversy, whether it was self inflicted or not. He’ll actually be able to have a normal off-season going into 2024, and he’s still only 25 years old, which makes me think what he did in 2023 is his floor. And considering he also got unlucky (.332 wOBA vs. .368 xwOBA which is in the top 10% of the league), his floor is probably even higher than that. The decline in production takes him out of the conversation to be the #1 dynasty player overall, but this is still an easy Top 10 dynasty asset at the very least. 2024 Projection: 98/33/96/.274/.348/.515/31

7) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 27.2 – Just call him the quiet killer because no elite player gets less hype than Kyle Tucker. He was one homer shy of going 30/30, and he did it while putting up career bests in both K% (13.6%) and BB% (11.9%). He has well below average speed with a bottom 33% sprint speed, but he once again proved stolen bases are not just about pure speed, there is a major skill component to it as well. Maybe it’s fitting he has the shortest blurb out of his elite dynasty brethren, because he’ll just continue to quietly kill your fantasy competition. No fanfare necessary. 2024 Projection: 99/30/115/.285/.365/.520/28

8) Juan Soto SDP, OF, 25.6 – Soto doesn’t run enough with only 12 steals to truly be considered in the same tier as the guys ranked above him, but in any league that devalues speed, he is right there with them. He’s an OBP God with an 18.6% BB% and .410 OBP. It’s his 4th year in a row with more walks than strikeouts. His 6.7 degree launch is low, but he’s launch proof with a 98.7 MPH FB/LD EV that is 4th best in all of baseball. It led to a career high 35 homers. This is a contract year for Soto and Scott Boras is his agent. He hasn’t really had that crazy career year yet. 2020 looked like it could have been that year with 13 homers and 202 wRC+ in 49 games, but it was a shortened season. The baseball Gods owe him one … 2024 Projection: 108/37/112/.287/.422/.536/13

9) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 22.3 – Call me crazy, but I’m actually encouraged by Elly’s 33.7% K%, 29.7% whiff%, and .235 BA in his age 21 year old season in the major leagues. In last year’s Top 1,000 Rankings, I projected Elly’s 2023 triple slash would be .232/.294/.433, and it ended up being .235/.300/.410. Not bad if I don’t say so myself, but point being, this is exactly what you should have expected. He also had a 26.9%/14.0% K%/BB% in 38 games at Triple-A, which proves he is capable of making real improvements to his plate approach over time (30.9%/7.7% K%/BB% at Double-A in 2022). And his hit tool only needs to get to below average to be an absolute fantasy monster. The power is elite with a 91.2 MPH EV and 119.2 Max EV which was the 3rd highest mark in the league. It came with a 3.6 degree launch, but he has the type of power that is launch proof (13 homers in 98 games), and he’s never had any major groundball issues in the minors, so that number is only coming up. He also has elite speed with 35 steals and a 30.5 ft/sec sprint speed which was tied for the fastest man in baseball with Bobby Witt. I always say, “if you can’t take risks in fantasy, where can you take risks,” and I’m not even sure Elly is as risky as people think. I’m all in. 2024 Projection: 91/25/85/.244/.317/.452/52 Prime Projection: 103/33/109/.261/.337/.506/65

10) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 26.9 – The only two categories Yordan isn’t a beast in are games played and steals. He dealt with left hand soreness in March that delayed the start of his spring training, he missed about a week in April with a neck injury, and he missed almost 2 months in June and July with an oblique injury. It limited him to just 114 games. The surgeries he’s gotten on both of his knees are also still fresh in everyone’s mind, but the fact that none of his issues had to do with his knees is encouraging to me. He played in 135 games in 2022 and 144 games in 2021. I think it’s one year too early to really slap him with the injury prone tag. And he’s too elite to be too risk averse with a career .978 OPS and a .440 xwOBA in 2023, which was the 3rd best mark in the league behind only Judge and Acuna. I’m not getting too hung up on the injury risk quite yet. 2024 Projection: 94/37/111/.296/.403/.589/1

11) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 26.8 – While many were jumping ship after a down and injured 2022, I kept the faith by ranking Robert 30th overall, and he responded with the type of year we all knew he was capable of, slashing .264/.315/.542 with 38 homers, 20 steals, and a 28.9%/5.0% K%/BB% in 145 games. He laughed in the face of chase rate (40.5%) and chased his way to a career best 15.4% barrel%. His speed bounced back with a top 16% sprint speed, and he played in a career high 145 games. I wish I could say he is now completely out of the woods and we can trust him completely, but the injury black cloud always seems to be lurking. His season ended on September 24th with a sprained MCL in his knee which would have kept him out for up to a month if the season didn’t end a week later. He also dealt with hamstring, quad, calf, hip, and finger injuries throughout the season. Rostering Robert definitely feels like playing Press Your Luck, begging to avoid any whammies (no whammies, no whammies, no whammies, STOP). Robert is elite enough where you can’t live completely in fear of his next injury, but projecting him for a fully healthy season feels optimistic. 2024 Projection: 88/32/84/.268/.320/.528/19

12) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 31.11 – Judge’s 97.6 MPH EV is the highest average exit velocity in the history of Statcast. The only years Judge didn’t lead the league in average exit velocity was 2015 when he was in the minors, and 2020 during the shortened season. His .468 xwOBA not only led the league, and it wasn’t only a career high, it was the highest xwOBA amongst qualified hitters in history if you take out 2020 (Soto put up a .475 xwOBA that season in 49 games). And he did all of this while gutting it out in the 2nd half with a torn ligament in his big toe which knocked him out for almost 2 months in June and July. He isn’t expected to need surgery this off-season, which is a good sign, and he had a 1.066 OPS in September, so I’m inclined to not harp too much on the injury. 2024 Projection: 121/46/119/.283/.405/.594/9

13) Bryce Harper PHI, 1B, 31.6 – Harper was nice enough to leave zero doubt that his power will fully return to prime form in 2024 coming off Tommy John surgery. After hitting just 3 homers in first 58 games, he turned it around by launching 23 homers in his final 81 games, including the postseason. He returned way ahead of schedule anyway, so it’s not surprising he wasn’t fully healthy until the 2nd half. I would expect your typical elite Harper season in 2024, and he strikes me as the type of all time great that will be raking deep into his 30’s. 2024 Projection: 107/35/100/.289/.400/.540/14

Shadow13) Shohei Ohtani FRA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.9 – This is where I would rank Ohtani in weekly leagues or as a hitter only. 2024 Projection: 96/33/94/.277/.380/.538/18

14) Mookie Betts LAD, 2B/OF, 31.6 – Betts is having a later career power surge, which makes up for his declining speed. After hitting a career high 35 homers in 2022, he topped that in 2023 by jacking out 39 dingers. His 92.4 MPH EV and 20.6 degree launch were both career highs, and his 48.5% Hard Hit% was the 2nd best mark of his career. As I mentioned, his speed is declining with a bottom 47% of the league sprint speed, but he still used his wiles to nab 14 bags. He may not be in his physical prime anymore, but Betts proved in 2023 that he has plenty of years of elite production left in him. 2024 Projection: 120/34/91/.290/.381/.536/13

15) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 31.6 – Mookie Betts’ beastly season is a reminder that not every year can be a banger. It wasn’t Ramirez’ best season with only 24 homers in 156 games, but there is absolutely nothing in the underlying numbers that would be concerning in the slightest, and we know his power is fine after watching him drop Anderson on a single punch. He’s also not slowing down on the bases at all with 28 steals. Even in a down-ish year, he still finished 29th overall on the Razzball Player Rater. 2024 Projection: 94/31/101/.281/.360/.511/26

16) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 23.1 – Harris’ surface stats took a step back in his 2nd year in the bigs with a .808 OPS in 2023 vs. a .853 OPS in 2022, but his underlying numbers actually showed a player who was improving. His contact rates took a big step forward with a 18.7% K% (24.3% in 2022), his EV took a 1.4 MPH jump to 90.9 MPH, his launch increased by 3.1 degrees to 7.6, and his xwOBA increased by .020 to .355. He hit .293 with 18 homers and 20 steals in 138 games, and he was even better in his final 100 games with a .912 OPS. He still needs to improve his plate approach with a 4.6% BB%, but Harris cemented his status as a near elite dynasty asset in 2023. 2024 Projection: 91/23/82/.287/.333/.480/27

Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Colorado Rockies–Kansas City Royals–Milwaukee Brewers–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)
-Off-Season content includes team dynasty reports, deep positional rankings, predicting future prospects lists, strategy articles, podcasts and very, very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 476 September 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

It’s Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week over on the Patreon, and as usual, I’m going over 400 deep with blurbs for just about every player. Top 30 free here on the Brick Wall. August-Off-Season Rankings are in parenthesis, in that order. Here is the Top 476 September 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
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-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
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-TOP 38 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (8/15/23)
-TOP 17 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (8/3/23)
-Off-Season content includes team prospect lists, deep positional rankings, strategy articles, and very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

1) (2) (2) (2) (2) (3) (3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 25.10 – 30/60 (actually 32/63 and counting). He also just cracked the hardest hit ball of the year at 121.2 MPH. With Ohtani’s injury, he’s the clear #1 in dynasty

2) (3) (3) (8) (24) (24) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 23.0 – 1.208 OPS with 3 homers and 4 steals in his last 14 games. We can officially push the shoulder injury to the back of our minds

3) (5) (5) (4) (3) (2) (2) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 22.8 – I saw the heater coming in last month’s update, and it is officially here, slashing .384/.424/.692 with 11 homers, 14 steals, and a 36/8 K/BB in his last 35 games. The plate approach is still below average, but at only 22 years old, I’m betting on improvement there in future years. We still haven’t seen his prime

4) (6) (12) (13) (13) (13) (8) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS/3B, 23.3 – The inevitable breakout hasn’t slowed down in the last month, slashing .322/.369/.628 with 10 homers, 10 steals, and a 15/8 K/BB in 29 games

5) (4) (4) (5) (7) (9) (7) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, SS/OF, 24.7 – He hasn’t performed up to prime levels with a relatively pedestrian .784 OPS, but he’s been on the unlucky side (.337 wOBA vs. .379 xwOBA) and the elite tools are still there with a 92.4 MPH EV and 29.2 ft/sec sprint. I’m buying if there is any type of discount here at all this off-season

6) (7) (8) (9) (4) (4) (6) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 26.8 – Tucker’s about to have the quietest 30/30 season of all time

7) (8) (6) (8) (11) (7) (5) Juan Soto SDP, OF, 24.11 – I hate to say it, but Soto could really be cementing himself as a better real life than fantasy hitter with 6 steals, a 5.8 degree launch (28 homers), and .261 BA (.272 xBA). He’s obviously still a total beast that you want to keep betting on no matter how you slice the numbers, but I think it’s at least worth mentioning

8) (16) (21) (41) (51) (27) (30) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 26.1 – 128 games played has shattered his previous career high, and staying healthy is all he had to do to blow up with 35 homers and 17 steals. Let’s hold our breath on this little quad injury he’s dealing with now as we get deeper into the fantasy playoffs

9) (10) (19) (23) (76) (72) (64) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.8 – MLB debut has gone basically exactly as expected with 11 homers, 24 steals, and a 35.8% K% in 77 games. If the K% scares you off, I get it, but I can’t get the 22 homer, 48 steal pace he’s on as a 21 year old out of my head. The best is yet to come

10) (11) (9) (7) (6) (5) (4) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 26.2 – .955 OPS in 30 games since returning from an oblique injury. He’s elite when healthy, but he’s struggled to remain healthy in his career

11) (13) (13) (18) (21) (17) (17) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 30.11 – 92.6 MPH EV and 38 homers are both career highs

12) (23) (18) (14) (20) (20) (18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 31.0 – We didn’t have to wait until 2024 for the power to return. It’s back now with 10 homers and 1.167 OPS in his last 25 games

13) (22) (16) (11) (14) (8) (10) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 31.4 – Respect for Judge that he isn’t just packing it in for the season with a torn ligament in his toe, and while he hasn’t been as good since returning, he still has 12 homers with a .898 OPS in 34 games

14) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 29.2 – Diagnosed with a torn UCL in his right elbow and will continue to DH until he decides whether or not to get his 2nd Tommy John surgery in 5 years. As we see with Bryce Harper, the odds Ohtani will continue to be an elite hitter are very high, but his ability to stay healthy as a starting pitcher is murkier.

Shadow14) (6) (5) (5) (3) (3) (6) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.2

15) (14) (14) (19) (15) (15) (12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 31.0 – .619 OPS in his last 28 games. It’s not the best year he’s ever had, but everything in his underlying numbers look normal, and as we’ve seen with Mookie, not every year can be a banger

16) (27) (17) (20) (16) (14) (11) Trea Turner PHI, SS, 30.2 – Slashing .368/.404/.783 with 11 homers, 4 steals, and a 23/6 K/BB in his last 26 games. That buy low price I was hoping for this off-season is closing by the day

17) (19) (24) (17) (24) (36) (36) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 24.10 – 38% K% leads the league by far for every pitcher with over 70 IP. Glasnow’s 31.7% is a distant 2nd

18) (12) (10) (10) (5) (6) (9) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 24.6 – The hot streak still hasn’t come, and when you look at his career numbers, it’s hard to deny his monster 2021 season is starting to look like a huge outlier. I still see a .383 xwOBA which is in the top 5% of the league and find it hard to drop him too far down the rankings

19) (15) (15) (16) (10) (10) (14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 26.10 – What’s there to say? Guy just consistently rips the ball

20) (17) (22) (40) (50) (82) (41) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 26.8 – Sprint speed didn’t bounce back from 2022 with it sitting at a decent 27.7 ft/sec, and it’s resulted in only 11 steal attempts in a year where steals have exploded. He’s a perfect 11 for 11 to be fair, and he’s bouncing back everywhere else, but I thought it’s worth keeping in mind

21) (25) (41) (46) (74) (101) (106) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.9 – Holliday is getting promoted to Triple-A after destroying Double-A with a 153 wRC+ in 36 games. He’s now on the precipice of a callup to the bigs. He was in high school last year. Wild

22) (26) (51) (79) (73) (58) (51) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.6 – Hasn’t been called up to Triple-A yet like Holliday, but there is still an outside chance Chourio gets a callup up to the bigs in late September as well. Two 19 year old uber prospects showing out in the playoffs would be insane. I’m getting pumped just thinking about it

23) (20) (25) (25) (29) (37) (37) Freddie Freeman LAD, 1B, 34.0 – In win now mode, I wouldn’t argue putting Freeman as high as 8th overall despite being almost 34 years old. One of the most consistently great players of our generation

24) (24) (26) (27) (31) (38) (38) Corey Seager TEX, SS, 29.2 – I started Seager’s Top 1,000 blurb this off-season by writing, “Seager doesn’t get the respect he deserves in the fantasy world,” and I ended it by writing, “If he hits .300 next year with 35 homers it wouldn’t be surprising at all.” He’s blowing past even my high expectations with a .341 BA and an about 40 homer pace if he didn’t miss time

25) (31) (31) (47) (30) (32) (25) Francisco Lindor NYM, SS, 29.10 – I said above that Tucker might have the quietest 30/30 season of all time, but Lindor is also knocking on the door of 30/30 (25/25 right now), and if he does it, he’ll actually have the quietest 30/30 season of all time

26) (18) (23) (31) (17) (16) (15) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 22.6 – Harris has made incremental improvements almost everywhere you look (EV, launch, K%, BB%, whiff%, chase%). The monster breakout didn’t come this year, but the seeds have certainly been planted for it in the future

27) (28) (28) (30) (38) (44) (68) Matt Olson ATL, 1B, 29.5 – 44 homers is tied for the league lead with Ohtani and is 3 ahead of Alonso

28) (32) (27) (15) (18) (18) (26) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 28.9 – 41 homers is only 3 off the league lead behind Olson and Ohtani. It’s going to be a fun race in September

29) (33) (33) (29) (27) (26) (28) Austin Riley ATL, 3B, 26.5 – 21 homers in his last 64 games. He’s been raking for months now and a 40 homer season is within reach

30) (21) (11) (12) (12) (11) (13) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 25.5 – Bichette’s sprint speed is now in the bottom 41% of the league and he’s 3 for 6 on the bases. The hope for him to contribute in steals is all but gone

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-AUGUST TOP 379 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-7 END OF SEASON STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: AUGUST MAILBAG! (8/25/23)
-TOP 38 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (8/15/23)
-TOP 17 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (8/3/23)
-Off-Season content includes team prospect lists, deep positional rankings, strategy articles, and very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 477 August 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

It’s Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week over on the Patreon, and as usual, I’m going over 400 deep with blurbs for just about everyone. Top 26 are free here on the Brick Wall. July-Off-Season Rankings are in parenthesis, in that order. Here is the Top 477 August 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 357 MID-SEASON DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 17 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (8/3/23)
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/28/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (7/14/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 29.1 – Ohtani is inexplicably getting even better with career bests in EV (94.7 MPH), EV against (86.5 MPH), xwOBA (.437), and K% (23.9%) … and all that to still miss the playoffs

2) (2) (2) (2) (3) (3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 25.9 – It’s insane that Acuna just became an elite contact hitter out of nowhere. He has a 12.2% K% after his previous career best was 23.6%, and he’s doing it while hitting the ball harder than he ever has with a 95.1 MPH EV.

3) (3) (8) (24) (24) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.11 – The shoulder scare seems to be behind him, although he hasn’t been quite as good post break with a .753 OPS in 22 games. It hasn’t slowed him down on the bases though with 10 steals over that time period.

4) (4) (5) (7) (9) (7) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, SS/OF, 24.6 – .615 OPS in his last 36 games. Maybe he needed the PED’s after all, or maybe he’s just been unlucky with a .385 xwOBA vs. .341 wOBA

5) (5) (4) (3) (2) (2) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 22.7 – We’ve been waiting for the heater all year and it might finally be here with 5 homers and a 1.032 OPS in his last 15 games. He hits the ball too hard (92.8 MPH EV) and is too fast (29.6 ft/sec sprint) for him not to get hot like this eventually

6) (12) (13) (13) (13) (8) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS/3B, 23.2 – I’ve been imploring you to buy in every monthly update, and the blow up has finally come for Witt with 8 homers and a 1.001 OPS in his last 30 games. The underlying numbers said this was inevitable

Shadow 6) (5) (5) (3) (3) (6) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.1

7) (8) (9) (4) (4) (6) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 26.7 – The quietest elite player in the game. He’s knocking on the door of a 30/30 season

8) (6) (8) (11) (7) (5) Juan Soto SDP, OF, 24.9 – .421 OBP is 2nd to only Ronald Acuna (.425)

9) (7) (6) (9) (12) (16) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 22.6 – Coming out of his slump with 4 homers and a 1.241 OPS in his last 9 games. He’s actually been on the unlucky side this season with a .354 xwOBA vs. .339 wOBA

10) (19) (23) (76) (72) (64) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.7 – He’s on a full season pace for about 28 homers and 51 stolen bases, and while the hit tool risk is real, his 29.5% whiff% is actually not bad at all. Trea motherf’ing Turner is swinging and missing more than Cruz has this year (29.7% whiff%). Ranking Cruz 10th may be aggressive, but I can only be honest, and his combination of youth and upside is one I’m simply not passing up

11) (9) (7) (6) (5) (4) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 26.1 – Returned from an oblique injury no worse for the wear with 4 homers and a 1.189 OPS in his last 10 games. If you don’t care about steals, he can rank as high as 3rd overall

12) (10) (10) (5) (6) (9) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 24.5 – .387 xwOBA vs. .337 wOBA. He doesn’t have a history of underperforming his underlying numbers. Whatever you do, don’t sell low

13) (13) (18) (21) (17) (17) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 30.10 – Not only hasn’t he slowed down, he’s taken it up a notch with a 1.249 OPS and 11 homers in his last 30 games. He’s on pace for the 2nd best year of his career

14) (14) (19) (15) (15) (12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 30.11 – Down goes Anderson … Down goes Anderson

15) (15) (16) (10) (10) (14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 26.9 – 7 homers with a 1.052 OPS in his last 26 games, and he also stole his first 2 bags of the season over that time period

16) (21) (41) (51) (27) (30) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 26.0 – Robert is just about the lone bright spot in an otherwise disastrous and embarrassing year for Chicago. He’s on pace for 44 homers and 20 steals

17) (22) (40) (50) (82) (41) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 26.7 – He debuted so young that you forget he’s just entering his man muscle years. 37 homer pace is set to shatter his previous career high of 30

18) (23) (31) (17) (16) (15) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 22.5 – I keep seeing Harris included in trades where he isn’t getting nearly his due respect. He’s slashing .369/.417/.585 with 2 homers, 2 steals, and a 11/6 K/BB in his last 20 games. He crushes the ball, he’s fast, he has plus contact rates, and he’s still only 22 years old

19) (24) (17) (24) (36) (36) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 24.9 – The undisputed top dog with a 39.3% K% and 97.3 MPH heat. Gausman’s 32.8% K% is a distant 2nd among qualified starters

20) (25) (25) (29) (37) (37) Freddie Freeman LAD, 1B, 33.11 – In win now mode, I wouldn’t argue putting Freeman 3rd overall despite being almost 34 years old. One of the most consistently great players of our generation

21) (11) (12) (12) (11) (13) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 25.4 – Dodged a bullet with his knee injury not considered serious. What is serious though is that he all of a sudden became slow with a below average 27 ft/sec sprint, leading to only 3 steals in a year where everyone else is running

22) (16) (11) (14) (8) (10) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 31.3 – Returned early from a torn ligament in his big toe even though he isn’t 100% yet and is understandably struggling with a .685 OPS in his last 9 games. Maybe they should shut it down and let him heal up for the next 8 years of his mega contract

23) (18) (14) (20) (20) (18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 30.11 – The guy has an elite .378 xwOBA in a year where he clearly is well below 100% returning early from Tommy John surgery. There is little doubt the homer power will fully return in 2024

24) (26) (27) (31) (38) (38) Corey Seager TEX, SS, 29.2 – The career year continues with 8 homers in his last 15 games. His .441 xwOBA is behind only Judge and Acuna. I started Seager’s Top 1,000 blurb this off-season by writing, “Seager doesn’t get the respect he deserves in the fantasy world,” and I ended it by writing, “If he hits .300 next year with 35 homers it wouldn’t be surprising at all.” He’s blowing past even my high expectations

25) (41) (46) (74) (101) (106) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.8 – Destroying Double-A, slashing .396/.448/.642 with 3 homers, 0 steals, and a 13.8%/8.6% K%/BB% in 13 games. He has plenty of competition for this top spot with Chourio right on his heels, but he’s not giving an inch

26) (51) (79) (73) (58) (51) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.5 – This man does not like his balls tacked as he’s back to going nuclear with the regular ball, slashing .424/.480/.717 with 6 homers, 9 steals, and a 12/9 K/BB in his last 21 games

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 357 MID-SEASON DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 17 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (8/3/23)
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/28/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (7/14/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)