Boston Red Sox 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I like to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team, and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Boston Red Sox 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: TOP 76 C//TOP 98 1B
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100+ COMING SOON)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Baltimore Orioles (free)Chicago Cubs (free)Chicago White SoxCincinnati Reds (free)Cleveland GuardiansColorado RockiesDetroit TigersHouston AstrosKansas City RoyalsMiami MarlinsMilwaukee BrewersMinnesota TwinsNew York Mets (free)New York Yankees (free)Pittsburgh PiratesSan Diego PadresSan Francisco GiantsTexas RangersToronto Blue JaysWashington Nationals

Pitchers

Kutter Crawford BOS, RHP, 28.0 – I told you guys to put a star next to Justin Steele’s name as you were filling out the middle to back half of your fantasy rotation last off-season, and I’m going to tell you to do the same with Kutter Crawford this off-season. He shares some similarities which made me like Steele last off-season, but they aren’t really direct comps. Crawford’s control jumped to above average levels with a 6.8% BB%, and it allowed his 93.6 MPH fastball (.268 xwOBA with a 26% whiff%) and 88.6 MPH cutter (.295 xwOBA with a 24.2% whiff%) to play as plus pitches. He throws a legit 6 pitch mix with his sweeper, splitter, and slider thriving in limited usage. It all led to a 4.04 ERA (3.25 xERA) with a 25.6% K% in 129.1 IP. The floor is pretty high, and he has some very real upside. I really, really like Kutter as a very reasonably priced target. 2024 Projection: 11/3.73/1.22/159 in 155 IP

Brayan Bello BOS, RHP, 24.10 – The good news is that Bello improved one of his biggest weaknesses, bringing his BB% down 3.4 percentage points to a well above average 6.7%, but the bad news is that basically everything else took a half step back. The velocity dropped 1.3 MPH to 95 MPH, the barrel% rose 1.6 percentage points to 7%, and the whiff% dropped 1.6 percentage points to 24.4%. It resulted in a good, but unexciting fantasy season with a 4.24 ERA and 19.8% K% in 157 IP. The floor is high with his ability to keep the ball on the ground (56.2% GB%), the stuff is still big, and the changeup is still plus with a .219 xwOBA and 38.7% whiff%, but the upside is lacking with the mediocre K rates. He was major buy for me last off-season, and everything I liked him about then, I still like about him now (plus the improved control), so he’s an easy hold for me this off-season. 2024 Projection: 11/3.94/1.28/150 in 165 IP

Chris Sale BOS, LHP, 35.0 – Sale was a bit rusty coming off a completely lost and chaotic 2022 season with a 8.22 ERA in his first 23 IP, but he performed like a true ace after that with a 3.16 ERA and 30.2%/6.0% K%/BB% in 79.2 IP. He can clearly still be an impact fantasy starter, but there are enough indications that what he did in those final 79.2 IP shouldn’t be expected over a full season. He missed over 2 months during that stretch with shoulder inflammation, and while he performed well afterwards, the velocity was spotty and shoulder injuries are scary. He hasn’t thrown a legitimate starter’s workload since 2019 (147.1 IP). And the stuff isn’t quite as good as his prime with his heavily used 4-seamer hitting a career worst .320 xwOBA and 23.4% whiff%. All of those negatives seem to already be factored into his price though with a NFBC ADP of 179, and his advanced age is sure to keep his price down in dynasty too, so he still makes for a very reasonable buy target for a win now team. 2024 Projection: 10/3.57/1.14/170 in 140 IP

Hitters

Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 24.3 – Casas has the potential to become one of the next great all around 1B mashers, and we saw what that could look like in the 2nd half of 2023. He slashed .317/.417/.617 with 15 homers and a 23.4%/14.2% K%/BB% in his final 54 games. He smashes the ball with a 91.1/95.2 MPH AVG/FB EV, he lifts the ball with a 15.7 degree launch, he hit lefties well with a .817 OPS, he has no contact issues, and he’s an OBP beast. His .371 xwOBA was in the top 8% of the league, and that includes his slow start. He also hits in a great ballpark. The 1B position is starting to age a bit with Votto, Goldy, and Freeman all getting up there, and I think Casas has the upside to be in the next generation of greats to take their place. I don’t think he will get quite the respect he deserves this off-season. 2024 Projection: 93/32/94/.273/.375/.520/1

Jarren Duran BOS, OF, 27.7 – Ceddanne Rafaela is pretty clearly Boston’s starting CF of the future, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a path to playing time for Duran both in the short term and long term. Rafaela hasn’t established himself yet, Alex Verdugo is in his final year of team control with trade rumors already swirling around him, Masataka Yoshida looks like he’ll be doing a lot of DH’ing, and the unproven Wilyer Abreu (who I like) is penciled into one of the OF spots. That leaves plenty of avenues for playing time for Duran even if Boston brings in a free agent or two, and he has the type of fantasy profile to go after. His hit tool took a big step forward in 2023 with a 24.9% K% (28.3% in 2022), and it was even better in the 2nd half with a 17.6% K% in his final 142 PA. The contact improvements allowed his double plus speed (29.5 ft/sec sprint with 24 steals in 102 games) and at least above average raw power (89.9 MPH EV with 8 homers and a .295 BA) to shine. He was definitely on the lucky side with a .266 xBA, but luck is the residue of design, and when you hit the ball hard with his kind of speed, good things happen. His season ended in late August with a toe injury that required surgery, but he should be good to go for 2024, and I would use any job/injury uncertainty to your advantage this off-season. 2024 Projection: 78/16/69/.264/.329/.428/29

Bullpen

Kenley Jansen BOS, Closer, 36.6 – Jensen is certainly passed his prime with career worsts in K% (27.7%), EV against (89.9 MPH), xFIP (4.61), and xERA (3.16), but he’s far from washed up. His velocity jumped two ticks to near career highs with a 94.3 MPH cutter, and the slider is still plus with a 37.5% whiff%. The days of him putting up a 1.32 ERA with a 42.2%/2.7% K%/BB% are over, but a low 3’s ERA with a 30%/9%% K%/BB% is still well within reach. 2024 Projection: 4/3.39/1.15/79/34 saves in 62 IP

Boston Red Sox Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Roman Anthony BOS, OF, 19.11 – I ended Anthony’s 2023 Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “There is a lot of refinement needed, but this is a high upside bat who could explode up rankings if everything comes together.” … well, everything came together and Anthony exploded up rankings, slashing .272/.403/.466 with 14 homers, 16 steals, and a 24.2%/17.5% K%/BB% in 106 games at mostly Single-A (109 wRC+) and High-A (164 wRC+). It was a little concerning that the K% jumped to 30.6% at High-A, but then he closed out the season at Double-A and had a 185 wRC+ with a 13.6%/18.2% K%/BB% in 10 games. And he did all this starting the season as an 18 year old. He’s an elite athlete at 6’2”, 200 pounds with a plus power/speed combo, powerful lefty swing, and a mature plate approach. He’s not a completely finished product yet as he’s not great at lifting the ball with an under 25% Flyball%, and he wasn’t a great base stealer with 16 steals in 23 attempts, but he hits the ball so hard he can survive without a huge launch, and he has time to refine his base stealing skills as well, so neither are major concerns. He’s on a short list to be the #1 overall prospect in baseball by this time next year. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 96/25/88/.273/.358/.472/16

2) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 21.4 – Mayer feels like he’s getting a bit of the treatment Noelvi Marte got last year. He was on a beeline for elite prospect status until there was an abrupt, general cooling on him throughout the industry, but like with Marte, I’m not sure it’s warranted. That sweet and vicious lefty swing obliterated the age appropriate High-A, slashing .290/.366/.524 with 7 homers, 5 steals, and a 22.%/10.4% K%/BB% in 35 games. He scuffled when he got to Double-A with a 63 wRC+, but there are multiple reasons to not get scared off by that. He was very young for the level, he was battling though a shoulder injury that eventually ended his season, and a .220 BABIP was really the biggest issue as 6 homers with a 25.8% K% in 43 games isn’t bad at all. He’s not that fast, but he’s a good enough base stealer to nab a handful of bags, and the strikeout rates have been higher than optimal, but the has the type of swing that can hit for both average and power even with a slightly higher strikeout rate. There are also only improvements coming from here. He’s right on track to become one of the better complete hitters in the game, especially hitting in Fenway. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 91/27/93/.272/.351/.484/9

3) Ceddanne Rafaela BOS, OF, 23.6 – Rafaela’s MLB debut was rough with a 74 wRC+, .238 xwOBA and 85.5 MPH EV in 89 PA, which fanned the flames of concern that he is too small (5’8″) to excel at the highest levels, but I’m using it as a buying opportunity. His floor is very high with at least plus CF defense and plus speed (39 steals and a 28.7 ft/sec sprint). He’s always had a good feel to hit (21.9% K% at Triple-A), he hit the ball hard in the upper minors with a 89.1 MPH EV, and he’s never had any groundball issues. He has a poor plate approach with a low BB% (5.5%) and high chase rates, but I don’t think that will hold him back while he’s in his physical prime. Cedric Mullins with a tick worse plate approach is the comp. 2024 Projection: 47/10/38/.245/.302/.401/15 Prime Projection:  87/18/68/.261/.318/.422/31

4) Kyle Teel BOS, C, 22.1 – Selected 14th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Teel is a better real life prospect than fantasy prospect like most prospect catchers. He has a hit over power profile, slashing .407/.475/.655 with 13 homers, 5 steals, and a 36/32 K/BB in 65 ACC games. He backed up that profile in pro ball, slashing .363/.483/.495 with 2 homers, 3 steals, and a 19.3%/18.4% K%/BB% in 26 games split between 3 levels (rookie, High-A, Double-A). He’s a good athlete, so he could nab a few bases which is nice for a catcher, and he immediately becomes Boston’s best catcher prospect, so he could move relatively fast through the system. Fenway is a great hitter’s park too which should help his profile play up. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/16/71/.281/.352/.433/8

5) Blaze Jordan BOS, 3B/1B, 21.3 – Blaze is one of those prospects where every time I fly him up rankings in early rankings drafts, I get cold feet after looking them over a few times because he isn’t a good defensive player, he hits lefties much better than righties, and he’s yet to truly show that prodigious power he was known for as an amateur. But then I move him too far down the rankings, and get FOMO when I think about a 20 year old with big raw power, great contact rates, and great production. He slashed .324/.385/.533 with 12 homers and a 14.6%/8.7% K%/BB% in 73 games at High-A. It was good for a 145 wRC+. He then went to Double-A and hit 6 homers with a 13.8% K% in 49 games. He can look a bit stiff at the plate, but he’s talked about losing weight and working on his body this off-season, which will only help him both offensively and defensively at a very strong 6’2”, 220 pounds. As a pure bat, there is a lot to love, and if he can improve defensively this off-season, it would make prospect rankers feel a lot more comfortable about him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 75/25/84/.269/.332/.465/3

6) Wilyer Abreu BOS, OF, 24.10 – I had a lot of in-season Target article hits this year, ringing the five alarm bell on a bunch of guys right at the first sign of a sprouting breakout and before they were even close to getting the respect they deserved (Nolan Jones and Zack Gelof, among others, were my best calls), but my favorite call was probably the one I made on Wilyer Abreu. Here is what I wrote about Abreu on August 3rd, “ This one is probably more for my deep leaguers out there, but there is something I really love about Abreu that I just can’t shake. And that something is probably his sweet, sweet lefty swing. It’s resulted in 14 homers with a 89.6 MPH EV in 71 games at Triple-A. It also comes with a solid 22.3%/16% K%/BB% and a cannon for an arm in rightfield. I don’t think he is going to be a league winner, but I think he has a chance to be a rock solid MLB player.” … From that point forward, Abreu went absolutely bonkos, hitting 8 homers in just 15 games at Triple-A, and then earning a call up to the majors where he put up a ridiculous 135 wRC+ in 85 PA. It’s almost like I had a crystal ball on that one. He continued to hit the ball hard in the majors with a 91.3 MPH EV, he likes to run with 3 steals (8 steals at AAA), and the plate approach was solid with a 27.1%/10.6% K%/BB%. I still think he’s more of an impact player for medium to deeper leagues rather than shallow leagues, but he more than proved he can be a good big leaguer in the long run. 2024 Projection: 47/14/54/.242/.319/.423/6 Prime Projection: 76/24/82/.257/.338/.453/9

7) Miguel Bleis BOS, OF, 20.1 – Bleis was the anti-Junior Caminero in 2023. Everyone wants to know which prospects can blow up from outside Top 50’s into elite prospect range, and Bleis and Caminero were both popular picks to do that this year. Caminero obviously fulfilled that elite prospect destiny, while Bleis completely imploded in on himself. He struggled hard at Single-A with 1 homer, 11 steals, a 26.8%/7.0% K%/BB%, and 71 wRC+ in 31 games, and then his season ended on May 30th with a shoulder injury that required surgery. The superstar traits are still there with a lightning quick swing, projectable power, and plus speed, but he didn’t seem all that close to putting it together in 2023, and the shoulder injury adds further risk. He’s not an overtly imposing presence at a skinny 6 feet, so he needs to tack on more muscle to reach his power potential, and the plate approach is below average. He can still obviously reach his elite prospect potential, but every year he doesn’t do it, the odds of it happening get a little lower. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection:  75/22/77/.255/.322/.438/24

8) Yordanny Monegro BOS, RHP, 21.5 – Monegro is a projectable 6’4”, 180 pounds with nasty stuff and a starter’s pitch mix. He throws a mid 90’s fastball with good movement, to go along with 2 plus breaking balls that he has full confidence in and will throw in any count, both in and out of the zone. He also mixes in a decent a changeup. He was too much for the lower minors with a 2.06 ERA and 34.6%/9.7% K%/BB% in 65.2 IP at rookie ball, Single-A, and High-A. He doesn’t have pinpoint control, but he’s not majorly wild either. Boston has a bunch of arms with similar value to Monegro, but I like his combination of upside and likelihood of sticking as a starter the most. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/3.93/1.31/160 in 155 IP

9) Nick Yorke BOS, 2B, 22.0 – A 24.1% K% and .268 BA at Double-A isn’t exactly super encouraging for a player who you are mostly buying for the hit tool. There also isn’t a clear path to playing time with Story under contract through 2027, Marcelo Mayer very likely ahead of him on the depth chart, and many others with similar skillsets to Yorke in the organization as well. And to top it all off, he isn’t a particularly good defensive player. But Yorke showed a good enough all around collection of skills/tools to stick with him. He hit 13 homers with 18 steals, a 10.1% BB% and 116 wRC+ in 110 games as a barely 21 year old in the upper minors. The Sox took him 17th overall in 2020, and when a team invests so much into a player, they usually want to give him every opportunity to succeed. His perceived name value is probably greater than his actual value, but he can still be a solid all around contributor at peak. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/18/71/.267/.332/.426/14

10) Wikelman Gonzalez BOS, RHP, 22.0 – There is no doubt that Gonzalez has fire stuff with a nightmare mid to upper 90’s fastball that gets a ton of whiffs to go along with a plus breaking ball and a solid changeup. It led to a 3.96 ERA with a 35.2% K% in 111.1 IP at High-A and Double-A. The problem is that his control is in the major danger zone with a 14.7% BB%. He can survive with below average control, but he needs to improve to even reach below average, so his most likely role will be out of the bullpen. It’s closer type stuff though. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 4/3.45/1.22/81/25 saves in 65 IP

Just Missed

11) Chase Meidroth BOS, 3B/2B, 22.8

12) Brainer Bonaci BOS, SS/2B, 21.9

13) Yoelin Cespedes BOS, SS, 18.7

14) Nazzan Zanetello BOS, SS, 18.10

15) Luis Perales BOS, RHP, 21.0

16) Angel Bastardo BOS, RHP, 21.9

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Jumping off from the Miguel Bleis blurb, every dynasty owner wants that shooting star prospect who “came out of nowhere,” but I would be careful about building your system with 100% of these players. Bleis is the dark side of that strategy, and before you know it, you could have an entire farm system full of nearly worthless prospects who showed glimpses in the DSL or rookie ball a few years ago, while your competition rosters and graduates the Matt McLain’s and Spencer Steer’s of the world. Of course you want a nice percentage of pure young upside, but make you sure you are dipping into other buckets of prospects as well to diversify your risk. And you don’t have to always forgo upside to do it with the Blake Dunn’s of the world available for reasonable prices (I’m not intentionally only naming Cincinnati players, hah).

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Baltimore Orioles (free)Chicago Cubs (free)Chicago White SoxCincinnati Reds (free)Cleveland GuardiansColorado RockiesDetroit TigersHouston AstrosKansas City RoyalsMiami MarlinsMilwaukee BrewersMinnesota TwinsNew York Mets (free)New York Yankees (free)Pittsburgh PiratesSan Diego PadresSan Francisco GiantsTexas RangersToronto Blue JaysWashington Nationals

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: TOP 76 C//TOP 98 1B
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100+ COMING SOON)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Boston Red Sox 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

I’m pumped to be kicking off my off-season 2023 Dynasty Baseball content with Dynasty Team Reports. Just like during the season, I’ll be releasing a free post on most Monday’s throughout the off-season. Here is the Boston Red Sox 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 SEPTEMBER 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 SEPTEMBER 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS
-2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL PLAYER SUPERLATIVES/AWARDS
-UPCOMING CONTENT: Dynasty Team Reports, Positional Dynasty Rankings, strategy articles, target articles, and early access to the Top 100 FYPD Rankings, Top 500 Prospects Rankings, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings hot off the presses as I put them together (released for free on IBW at some point in March)

*Ages are as of Opening Day 2023
**Prime Projections represent a relatively good outcome scenario that is meant to shine more light on the type of numbers I think a prospect projects for. It is not necessarily a most likely outcome.

Starting Pitchers

Brayan Bello BOS, RHP, 23.11 – Bello is one of my top pitching targets for 2023. He checks a whole hell of a lot of boxes. He throws gas (96.3 MPH sinker), his changeup is a filthy out pitch (44.2% whiff% and .214 xSLG against), he keeps the ball on the ground (5.3 degree launch), and he induces weak contact (5.4% barrel%). His control isn’t great, but it isn’t really a major area of concern. Improving his slider would take him to another level, but his slider isn’t all that bad as is with an above average .288 xwOBA against. His 4.71 ERA (3.80 xERA) in 57.1 IP, and his relative lack of hype as a prospect is going to have him going for an extremely reasonable price this off-season. I’m all in on Bello. I would be all over him no matter where your team is in the contention cycle. 2023 Projection: 10/3.79/1.27/180 in 172 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.43/1.18/214 in 190 IP

Chris Sale BOS, LHP, 34.0 – This video of Chris Sale going full meltdown mode and destroying the Triple-A locker room while on a rehab assignment is the perfect representation of his 2022 season. He pitched only 5.2 innings all year as he battled a stress fracture in his ribs early on, and then a broken pinky almost immediately after returning from the rib injury, and then finally a broken wrist from a bike accident finished off his season. None of the injuries seem to be long term concerns, and his fastball did average 94.9 MPH in those 5.2 innings, which is actually nice to see even if it is a very small sample. He has the reputation as a strikeout machine, but he’s also put up near elite walk rates since 2012 which gives him a safe floor even if the strikeouts take a step back. If you’re a competing team who doesn’t have the assets to go after an established ace this off-season, Sale is a good “Plan B” option. 2023 Projection: 10/3.59/1.17/181 in 150 IP

Hitters

Xander Bogaerts BOS, SS, 30.6 – Bogaerts started his career as a boring fantasy player, and now it looks like the back 9 of his career will end up pretty similar. He’s a line drive hitter with above average contact rates and average exit velocities. He’ll chip in with some steals, but he’s never been a huge base stealer, and I don’t think the new rules (bigger bases and max of 2 pick off attempts) are going to favor an aging player like Bogaerts who likes to pick his spots. In fact, it might actually hurt his value because I think younger, more reckless base runners will ultimately get the biggest bump. His name value is still very strong, likely bumping up his value much higher than players who can put up similar numbers and go much later. He can also opt out of his contract this off-season, and if he leaves Boston’s hitter haven, it will very likely hurt his value. He’s a sell for me. 2023 Projection: 88/20/76/.290/.364/.469/13

Trevor Story BOS, 2B, 30.5 – Just when we started to relax and let our hair down when it came to Colorado hitters leaving Coors, Story comes along and smacks us right back to reality. His K% spiked 7.4 percentage points to 30.8% and it led to a career worst .238 BA (.221 xBA). We knew the batting average was coming down, but this was close to a worst case scenario on how far down. The power/speed combo was still good with 16 homers and 13 steals in 94 games battling through a few injuries, so he’s still an exciting fantasy player, but you now have to factor in that it could come with a batting average that tanks you in that category. 2023 Projection: 77/26/89/.241/.316/.480/19

Bullpen

Garrett Whitlock BOS, RHP, 26.10 – Whitlock once again heads into the off-season in role purgatory. He’ll be brought to camp prepared to be a starter, but he can easily end up back in the bullpen. Along with role uncertainty, he also underwent arthroscopic hip surgery in late September, and while he’s expected to be ready go for the start of the season, it adds another layer of unknowns. What isn’t unknown, is that Whitlock is a damn good pitcher as he backed up the 2021 breakout with another very good year in 2022. He put up a 3.17 xERA (3.45 ERA) with a 29.4% whiff% and 4.8% BB%. In leagues with a holds category, there could be a buying opportunity on Whitlock this off-season, but in a 5×5 saves league, there are too many unknowns for me to really target him. 2023 Projection: 6/3.35/1.11/115/15 saves in 105 IP

Boston Red Sox Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 23.3 – Casas is an OBP machine. He has a career .374 OBP in 284 minor league games and then he put up a .358 OBP with a 20% BB% in his 95 PA MLB debut. In an OBP league, he has a chance to be a real difference maker. It’s not so cut and dry in a 5×5 BA league. He’s never hit for high BA’s in the minors (career .269 BA) and he hit .197 (.193 xBA) in the majors. He’s a huge man with huge raw power, but he’s never really put up monster home run totals (11 homers in 72 Triple-A games). He doesn’t sell out for power. Boston’s hitter’s park should juice up all of his numbers, and I like Casas a lot regardless of league type, but I might curb your enthusiasm a little bit in a 5×5 BA. 2023 Projection: 78/24/81/.249/.334/.462/1 Prime Projection: 89/29/94/.263/.368/.510/2

2) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 20.4One look at Mayer’s controlled and explosive lefty swing really says it all. He used that swing to dominate Single-A in every facet of the game (150 wRC+ in 66 games), and then mostly did the same to close out the season at High-A (127 wRC+ in 25 games). His 25.2% K% is maybe slightly higher than you would like to see, but he mitigated that with a 16% BB%, and he was also a perfect 17 for 17 on the bases. He’s not a burner, but with the new stolen bases rules coming to the majors, maybe he’ll be able to nab more than we are expecting. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 94/25/87/.271/.363/.484/10

3) Ceddanne Rafaela BOS, OF, 22.0 – Rafaela is a small (5’8”), electric player who seems to be taking a page out of another small electric player’s playbook, Mookie Betts. Both of their swings start upright before bending into hitting position and exploding on the baseball. Boston obviously has a plan on developing these smaller ballplayers. Rafaela isn’t as good as Betts, but he had an eye opening season, slashing .299/.342/.539 with 21 homers, 28 steals, and a 113/26 K/BB split between High-A (156 wRC+ in 45 games) and Double-A (119 wRC+ in 71 games). He’s a plus defensive centerfielder which should help keep him on the field and mitigates the risk of his low walk rate (5% BB%). Take a star away in OBP leagues, but he could be a 5×5 BA beast in the mold of Cedric Mullins. 2023 Projection: 7/1/4/.245/.293/.390/2 Prime Projection: 84/17/68/.261/.314/.423/22

4) Miguel Bleis BOS, OF, 19.1 – Bleis is a scout’s dream. He’s a long and lean 6’3”, 170 pounds with a quick and athletic swing. The high priced international signing played well in 2021 in the DSL, but he really exploded this year at stateside rookie ball, slashing .301/.353/.543 with 5 homers, 18 steals, and a 26.9%/6.9% K%/BB% in 40 games. He’s not a finished product as evidenced by his plate approach numbers, but if you’re looking for the type who could be an elite prospect very quickly into 2023, Bleis is your guy. ETA: 2025/26 Prime Projection: 75/22/80/.252/.317/465/14

5) Blaze Jordan BOS, 3B/1B, 20.4 – Blaze clearly came into 2022 with a plan to not just be an all or nothing slugger, and he accomplished that plan with a 16.1%/8.9% K%/BB% in 95 games at Single-A. It came with a low FB% and only 8 homers, but he’s been known for his prodigious power for years now so it’s more important for his development to establish his hit tool. He then closed out the season at High-A where he put up a 128 wRC+ with 4 homers in 25 games. The bat is legit. The issue is on the other side of the ball as Blaze played a lot of 1B this year. He’s not a lock to move off 3B, but it’s clearly a possibility, and that puts all of the pressure on his bat to hit it’s ceiling. ETA: 2024/25 Prime Projection: 77/27/86/.260/.324/.486/3

6) Nick Yorke BOS, 2B, 21.0 – Yorke had a worst case scenario 2022. He hit .231 with 11 homers, 8 steals, and a 25.2% K% in 80 games at High-A. He battled through injuries which definitely contributed to how bad it was, but the power/speed combo isn’t very big, which puts a lot of pressure on his hit tool. He struck out 22.9% of the time at High-A last year too. He’s off to a hot start in the AFL (.368 BA with a 3/5 K/BB in 5 games), and I definitely think he will have a much better 2023, but he lacks high end upside which prevents me from going any higher on him than this. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 83/18/70/.276/.338/.435/10

7) Bryan Mata BOS, RHP, 23.11 – Mata returned from Tommy John surgery in June and quickly established the nasty stuff is fully back with him regularly sitting in the upper 90’s with his 4-seamer. He combines that with a diverse pitch mix that features a potentially plus slider, a nasty 2 seamer, a curve, and a change. He touched every level of the minors this year other than rookie ball and racked up K’s at every level with 105 strikeouts in 83 IP which led to a 2.49 ERA. The problem is that he has major control issues, putting up a 14.7% BB% in 23.1 IP at Triple-A. It’s a high risk, high reward profile with major bullpen risk, but with Boston’s unsettled bullpen, he could end up a dominant closer in short order. 2023 Projection: 3/4.10/1.34/71/4 saves in 65 IP Prime Projection: 5/3.28/1.18/85/28 saves in 70 IP

8) Emmanuel Valdez BOS, 2B/3B, 24.3 – Valdez is not a big man at 5’9”, 191 pounds, but he puts up big man power numbers with 26 homers in 91 games split between High-A and Double-A in 2021, which he followed up with 28 homers in 126 games split between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022. He’s not a big base stealer, his hit tool is solid but not standout, and he’s not great on defense, so a lot is riding on that power from a small frame. 2023 Projection: 54/13/51/.243/.319/.427/4 Prime Projection: 76/22/74/.253/.335/.452/7

9) Matthew Lugo BOS, 3B/SS, 21.11 – Lugo’s power exploded in 2022, going from 4 homers in 105 games at Single-A in 2021 to 18 homers in 114 games at High-A in 2022. He did so without his hit tool or speed taking a step back, maintaining a strong .288 BA and 19.5% K% along with 20 steals. He might not have a standout tool, but he’s shaping up to be a solid across the board contributor. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/22/78/.265/.330/.445/11

10) Brandon Walter BOS, LHP, 26.7 – Walter was shutdown in early June with a neck strain. If not for the injury, he very likely would have ended up higher on the list. He obliterated Double-A with a 2.88 ERA and 34.7%/1.5% K%/BB% in 57.2 IP. He got roughed up a bit in his 2 start Triple-A cup of coffee with a 8.22 ERA and 7/4 K/BB in 7.2 IP before going down with the injury, so he was never given the opportunity to right the ship there. He’s old for a prospect, but you can’t fake good stuff, and Walter’s stuff is on point. He uses a funky, herky jerky lefty delivery to fire a low to mid 90’s fastball, plus slider, and above average changeup. Toss in plus control and it adds up to a relatively safe profile with some upside evidenced by the high K rate. #4 starter seems like a fair, relatively good outcome scenario. 2023 Projection: 3/4.36/1.29/50 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.95/1.24/166 in 160 IP

Just Missed

11) Niko Kavadas BOS, 1B, 24.5 – The lefty Kavadas wrecked the lower level of the minors with 24 homers in 96 games split between Single-A and High-A, but his swing and miss issues caught up with him when he got to Double-A, putting up a 40% K% with only 2 homers in 24 games. For an older player, that isn’t a great sign. He’s also a 1B only guy, which causes another road block to playing time. He’s a walk machine and the power is legit, so I could see him chiseling out some kind of platoon role on the MLB level a la Dan Vogelbach. 2023 Projection: 9/3/12/.219/.305/.410/0  Prime Projection: 48/18/57/.232/.328/.430/1

12) Alex Binelas BOS, 3B/1B, 22.10 – The lefty Binelas wants to hit the ball hard. Check out this excellent interview by David Laurila over on Fangraphs about how much emphasis he puts on exit velocity. It certainly shows as Binelas jacked 25 homers in 113 games split between High-A and Double-A. Like Kavadas, the problem is that his hit tool fell apart when he got to Double-A with a .166 BA and 32.4% K% in 55 games, and he also doesn’t have much defensive value. Part time power bat might be the most likely outcome. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 43/16/51/.238/.323/.430/2

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Restricting trades after the season ends for any period of time doesn’t make sense to me. A large portion of the fun of playing in a dynasty league is that it is a year round thing. I love taking stock of my team directly after the season ends, thinking about my keepers and what my lineup will look like next year, seeing the holes I need to fill and the areas I’m weak in. If your team wasn’t in competition, you might not have had that much to do since the trade deadline passed in August, and you’re ripping and raring to go when the trade ban is lifted. Waiting months before I can start wheeling and dealing just seems unnecessary. Please lift that trade embargo, Mr. Commissioner. No taxation without representation. Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall. Ask not what your country can do … my bad, got carried away there 🙂

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)