Lars Nootbaar – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on May 12, 2025May 12, 2025 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/12/25)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/12/25):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
–APRIL 2025 TOP 437 DYNASTY RANKS (4/25/25)
–MAY 2025 TOP 323 PROSPECTS RANKS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2026 PROSPECTS RANKS
–SPREADSHEETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: APRIL MAILBAG!

Pete Crow-Armstrong – CHC, OF, 23.1 – Make it double digits for Pete Crow as he destroyed his 10th homer of the year into the upper deck at Citi Field. I’ve been pounding the table for Pete Crow Armstrong for so long now that I don’t have a table in my house that isn’t cracked and broken. I have to eat dinner standing up now. The Crow now has a 13.8% Barrel%, 90 MPH EV, and 22.1 degree launch in 41 games and is on pace for almost 40 dingers with 50 steals. I ranked him all the way up at 64th overall in the off-season Top 1,000 Rankings, starting off his blurb by writing, “Pete Crow Armstrong’s power has been underrated from the time he was drafted,” and ending with “Put some respect on this man’s name. His name is Pete Crow Armstrong, not Pete Crow Armweak.” Well, I think now people know. He moved all the way up to 33rd overall on the recently updated April Top 423 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), and I’m not even sure that was high enough. I would value PCA as a Top 20 dynasty asset at the very least right now. Damn he’s fun.

Luis Morales – OAK, RHP, 22.7 – 7 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 11/1 K/BB at Double-A. The Bubba Chandler 2.0 glow up at Double-A just keeps on cementing. He was pumping upper 90’s heat for whiffs all day, which he would then follow up with vicious sliders. He utterly demoralized the competition. After his 7th strikeout vs. Logan Cerny, I’ve never seen someone walk away from the plate so dejected. He just dropped his bat and hung his head in shame as he walked back to the dugout. I saw the writing on the wall this off-season, starting Morales’ Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “This isn’t a comp, but Morales reminds me a lot of where Bubba Chandler was sitting last off-season. Like Chandler, Morales is a huge talent ($3 million signing bonus in 2023), with a scouts dream build at 6’3”, 190 pounds (although Chandler was more built up and wider), super obvious humongous stuff, below average control, and mediocre results at High-A. Morales put up a 4.22 ERA with a 24.9/10.7 K%/BB% in 81 IP at the level while Chandler put up a 4.75 ERA with a 25.6/10.9 K%/BB% in 106 IP at the level.” … and now just like Chandler, Morales is blowing up at Double-A with a 2.97 ERA and 31.5/9.8 K%/BB% in 36.1 IP. He already rose all the way up to 33rd overall on my Updated Top 323 May Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings that just dropped on the Patreon last week, and it still seems like there is time to get in. He’s still underrated.

Addison Barger – TOR, 3B/OF, 25.5 – It’s time to target Barger everywhere. He went 2 for 4 with a 107.2 MPH homer and 103.5 MPH single yesterday. I wanted to make him a major target this off-season, but the only thing holding me back was his defense, and right now, he actually has a positive 2.6 defensive value, which is getting me pumped, because his bat is no joke. He has an elite 76.3 MPH swing with a 13.6% Barrel%, 96.1 MPH EV. 13.5 degree launch, and .362 xwOBA in 59 PA. The plate skills are taking a big jump forward too with his K% all the way down to 16.9% (26.7% in 2024) and his Chase all the way down to 20.2% (31.5% in 2024). He’s still in a scrum for playing time, and it might be a platoon role, but I’m sorry, you can not keep this bat off the field. Barger is a major target right now. Go after him.

Caleb Durbin – MIL, 2B/3B, 25.1 – 0 for 3 and now has a .581 OPS with 0 barrels, an 83.7 MPH EV, and a negative 1.4 defensive value in 22 games. I like Durbin. I’m rooting for the little cutie at 5’7”, and he makes a ton of contact with a 5% K%, but 3B is for power hitting beasts, and Milwaukee just so happens to have one of those behemoths ripping up the minors right now …

Brock Wilken – MIL, 3B, 22.11 – and that man’s name is Brock Wilken. I held strong on Wilken’s value this off-season, putting him in my Top 100 at #87, and he’s rewarding that patience with a big year at Double-A. He went 3 for 4 with a dinger yesterday and he now has 8 homers with a 26.2/23.4 K%/BB% and 176 wRC+ in 33 games. He had a down year in 2024, but that was due to getting rocked in the face with a pitch on April 11th, sustaining multiple facial fractures. He talked about how hard it was to come back from that mentally this off-season. He’s over it now though. And he’s coming for that 3B job sooner rather than later.

Rafael Devers – BOS, 3B, 28.6 – 2 for 3 with a 110.4 MPH homer off Seth Lugo. First off, it’s great to see the shoulder problems seem to be behind Devers. His 18.8% Barrel%, 95.6 MPH EV and 61.6% Hard Hit% are all career bests. It sure seems like he’s taking to DH quite well … possibly too well, because now he refuses to move off the position. And I mean, I get it. I played 3B and 2B in my career through high school, and I also hated when they made me play 1B. I felt like a fish out of water. I wasn’t good at it. It was hard to learn. I get it … but … unlike Devers, I didn’t refuse to play it hah. I did the best I could and I did what was best for the team. So even though I relate to Devers, hopefully he comes around eventually.

Josh Jung – TEX, 3B, 27.3 – 2 for 4 with a 107.4 MPH homer for his 4th in 32 games. Jung hasn’t exactly been blowing up with a .732 OPS, but I’m extremely encouraged by his start. He got hit by a pitch and broke his wrist just 4 games into the 2024 season, and he didn’t look the same when he returned later that year. We’ve seen wrist injuries linger and even end player’s careers (Alex Kirilloff), so I love the see that Jung has a 13.2% Barrel% with a 95.5 MPH FB/LD EV on the season. He’s back to hitting the ball very hard, and he’s doing it with career bests in K% (21.1%), whiff% (23.7%) and Chase% (30.7%). He’s starting to look like the special hitter trajectory he was on after his rookie year in 2023. Buy now while the surface stats still look mediocre.

Lars Nootbaar – STL, OF, 27.6 – I’ve been ringing the buy bell on Nootbaar all season with his launch all the way up to 17.7 degrees, and unsurprisingly, the dingers keep on coming with him cracking a 108.1 MPH homer off Mackenzie Gore for his 6th in 40 games. He’s always hit the ball really hard with an elite plate approach, and seeing neither of those strengths in his game drop off even a smidge with the added launch is damn impressive. In fact, he’s never hit the ball harder with a career high 50.8% Hard Hit%, or swung the bat faster with a 74.5 MPH swing (up almost 2 MPH from 2024). He’s also on a career high stolen base pace with 4 steals. This is a full on blow up and I’m buying hard here.

Wilyer Abreu – BOS, OF, 25.10 – 3 for 4 with a 107.9 MPH homer, 107.4 MPH single, and 106.9 MPH single. Abreu jumped up to #161 overall on the Updated Top 437 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), and here is what I wrote for him, “I’m ashamed of myself for not being higher on Abreu. He was one of my favorite target hits ever, and I let him down this off-season. He has double plus bat speed, he hit the ball hard, he lifts it, and the plate skills are taking a big step forward this year. One the flip side, he’s not hitting lefties well and he’s not playing against them very often either. And the biggest concern, which scared me this off-season, was Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer on the way. It’s a lot of mouths to feed.” … He’s still not playing vs. lefties very much, but the damage he is doing vs. righties more than makes up for it. His .411 xwOBA is in the top 6% of baseball. He’s also an above average defensive player. Treat this man like the young star he is. His value continues to rise.

Heliot Ramos – SFG, OF, 25.8 – 2 for 2 with a 105.4 MPH homer off Pablo Lopez at Minnesota. He now has 6 homers with a .968 OPS on the road vs. 1 homer with a .611 OPS at home. This dude could be a superstar hitting almost anywhere else other than San Francisco, but even dealing with that handicap, he’s so damn good he’s still powering through with a strong year. He has a 14.2% Barrel% with a 91.2 MPH EV and .365 xwOBA in 40 games. The hit tool is taking steps forward too with career bests in K% (23.5%) and whiff% (23.8K%). I was all in on Ramos this off-season, naming him a target due to his short and quick swing, and he’s one of many that is proving betting on the bat speed data standouts was not for naught. So many of my targets are paying off. Ramos would have paid off more if not for San Francisco, but nothing we can do about that.

Hunter Goodman – COL, C/OF, 25.6 – Speaking of bat speed breakouts, Goodman’s double plus swing made him a fun target once it was clear Colorado was serious about letting him loose at catcher, and he’s using that powerful swing to keep on hitting dingers, going 3 for 5 with a 108.7 MPH homer and a 116.2 MPH double!!!! He now has 6 homers with a .835 OPS in 25 games, and while he’s likely getting lucky as the .310 xwOBA and 32% whiff% aren’t quite as impressive as the surface stats, it’s clear he has an impact fantasy bat for a catcher at the least.

Brooks Lee – MIN, SS/3B/2B, 24.2 – I rang the 5 alarm target bell on Lee last week in the Rundowns, and he went off yesterday, going 3 for 5 with a 100.9 MPH homer, 100.7 MPH single and 100.3 MPH single. What got me so excited is that this is a high contact player who was seeing big gains in his power. The 11% Barrel%, 89.2 MPH EV and 41.1% Hard Hit% are all career highs by far. His righty swing is almost 3 MPH faster at 73 MPH and his lefty swing is up 1.2 MPH to 70.3 MPH. The fantasy upside is capped by how damn slow he is though. You can time him with a sundial, as my high school baseball coach used to love to yell at me. His 25.9 ft/sec sprint is in the bottom 20% of the league. So you are getting very few steals and it hurts him in runs too, but we are seeing a very real power uptick, and that is worth buying.

Ben Rice – NYY, 1B, 26.7 – For the people waiting on Ben Rice to all of a sudden spot hitting, you can keep on waiting, because Rice isn’t going anywhere. He went 1 for 2 with a 111.2 MPH bomb off Mitch Spence for his 9th in 36 games. You already know Rice was a major target for me this off-season. Here is what I wrote about him in my off-season 19 Dynasty Baseball Strategies/Thoughts for 2025 (A Collection from the 2025 Dynasty Baseball Team Reports), “4) For even the most iron willed dynasty owner, it is a major gut punch when a prospect you love gets the call to the majors, struggles hard, and then gets sent back down to the minors. When it happens to an elite or near elite universally hyped prospect, it’s much easier to stay level headed and hold strong, but when it happens to a good, but not necessarily great prospect it can be much tougher to hold on. Trade value plummets for the non elite guys, and you start to question if their team truly believes in them, thinking they might not get another chance so soon. But let us use Lawrence Butler (and Parker Meadows too) as a lesson to not let a demotion rattle us if we still believe in a player’s skillset. Even elite prospects can struggle in their first taste or two of the majors, so certainly we need to give some grace for non elite ones as well. How to apply that for this season? Well, Ben Rice is staring us right in the face. Rice is not an elite prospect, but he is a relatively well liked one, and he took almost the exact same Butler path in the majors with great underlying numbers (15.6% Barrel%) and poor surface stats (.613 OPS in 173 PA). Admit it, you are questioning how much the Yanks really believe in him and if he will get another chance. I get it, because I am too, but I’m going to use Butler and Meadows as my pillars of strength to not be so quick to give up on Rice. I still like him long term, even with the Goldy signing.”

Mark Vientos – NYM, 3B, 25.4 – 2 for 4 with a 101.4 MPH homer off Mathew Boyd for his 5th in 37 games. It hasn’t been the best start for Vientos, but I would 100% stay the course here. He’s brought his K rate all the way down from 29.7% in 2024 to 20.4% in 2025, which is huge to see, and it’s backed up by a 4.6 percentage point drop in whiff% and a 3.9 percentage point drop in chase%. He’s improving in the areas we wanted to see improvement, and we know the monster power is in there with a 90.5/94.6 MPH AVG/FB EV. He’s an easy hold, and a buy low if you can.

Mike Burrows – PIT, RHP, 25.5 – 4.2 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 11/2 K/BB at Triple-A. The fastball sat 94.7 MPH and put up a 39% whiff% while the changeup put up a 86%!!! whiff%. The slider missed some bats too, leading to a 45% whiff% overall. He now has a 2.63 ERA with a 32.7/9.1 K%/BB% in 27.1 IP. I’ve always felt Burrows was too underrated, giving him a solid ranking at #273 this off-season, and with his dominance in Triple-A, he rose into the Top 200 in the latest update. The Pirates Triple-A rotation is probably better than some MLB rotations right now with Burrows, Chandler, Ashcraft, Harrington and Barco all knocking on the door. I have no idea how they fit all of these guys into the rotation, but these things usually work themselves out.

Chen-Wei Lin – STL, RHP, 23.5 – Lin didn’t pitch especially well yesterday, going 2.2 IP with 5 hits, 1 ER (4 unearned) and a 3/0 K/BB at High-A, but this is just your reminder that he’s back on the mound after getting a late start to the season, and it’s also your reminder to get in now before his value starts to explode. He’s 6’7” with upper 90’s heat and bat missing secondaries. It’s only a matter of time before everyone realizes how good this kid is.

Drew Beam – KCR, RHP, 22.1 – 4 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 7/1 K/BB at High-A. Beam’s skills are officially transferring to pro ball with a 2.55 ERA and 24.8/5.7 K%/BB% in 35.1 IP at High-A. He’s 6’4”, 208 pounds with average to above average stuff (two 94 MPH fastballs, a curve and a changeup) that plays up due to the plus control. Kansas City’s ballpark will be perfect for this type of profile too. He might not have huge upside, but especially in KC, he can be a solid mid rotation starter. He’s a solid pitching prospect.

Braden Nett – SDP, RHP, 22.11 – 5 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 5/1 K/BB at Double-A. I’ve been sleeping on Nett, but that ends now, as he looked quite impressive yesterday. His fastball got up to 98 MPH and he was just straight blowing it by guys. He combines the heat with a couple of bat missing breakers, and it’s resulted in a 4.20 ERA and 27.4/9.6 K%/BB% in 30 IP. There is still major bullpen risk with major control problems throughout his career, but the walk rate is taking a big step forward this year, and the big stuff is worth betting on.

Cole Carrigg – COL, OF, 22.10 – I was waiting to see if Carrigg could keep up the great lower minors production in the upper minors, and he’s answered that question quite easily in 2025 after blasting off for 2 more homers yesterday. He’s now slashing .288/.388/.563 with 7 homers, 9 steals, and a 27.3/11.6 K%/BB% in 28 games at Double-A. The K% is a tad too high, but it’s been coming down of late, and the fantasy upside is shining through. I would value him a Top 100 fantasy prospect right now.

Mike Sirota – LAD, OF, 21.11 – Speaking of newly minted Top 100 fantasy prospects, Sirota just cracked my Top 100, and then he cracked 2 more bombs at Single-A. He’s making a mockery of the level, slashing .354/.443/.687 with 7 homers, 1 steal, and a 21.7/13.0 K%/BB% in 24 games. I would like to see him run a bit more, and would also obviously like to see him keep this up at higher levels, but this was a potential Top 10 draft pick coming into the 2024 season, and now he has the production to match the talent. The Dodgers done did it again.

Jefferson Rojas – CHC, SS, 20.0 – Rojas joined the 2 homer parade yesterday, going 3 for 4 with 2 homers at High-A, and he’s now slashing .300/.387/.513 with 4 homers, 5 steals, and a 14.0/10.8 K%/BB% in 21 games. He’s never been my favorite prospect, but it sure looks like the power is ticking up this year, which he combines with his already strong across the board profile. His value is on the rise.

Jacob Reimer – NYM, 3B, 21.2 – Say hello to the best qualified hitter at High-A. Jacob Reimer leads all hitters at High-A with a 198 wRC+, and he tacked onto his lead yesterday with his 6th homer in 30 games. He was once upon a time a deep FYPD target for me in a tier with Alex Freeland, Luke Adams, and Nacho Alvarez. None of them has done anything in the majors yet, but from their non existent hype at the time, all of them have seen big value rises, and now it’s Reimer’s turn to take centerstage. He’s got real power at 6’0”, 205 pounds, the plate approach is solid (20.0/11.1 K%/BB%) and now he’s lifting and pulling a ton more with a 36% GB% and 46.7% Pull%. He just moved into my Top 300, and he might be pushing Top 200 value right now.

Brailer Guerrero – TBR, OF, 18.10 – The Brailer Guerrero breakout continues to quietly lurk just under the radar, but it got a bit louder yesterday with him blasting his first homer of the season at Single-A. He’s now slashing .308/.438/.487 with 1 homer, 4 steals, and a 29.2/18.8 K%/BB% in 11 games at Single-A as an 18 year old. That’s good for a 166 wRC+. The K rate and 56.5% GB% are both a bit higher than optimal, but this dude can crush the ball and is a breakout waiting to happen. It might be time to pounce, and at the least keep a very, very close eye on him.

Tim Elko – CHW, 1B, 26.4 – Elko popped onto the back at #309 of the Updated Top 323 Dynasty Prospects Rankings (Patreon), writing, “He’s a classic Quad-A slugger, MLB bench bat type with 10 homers and a 29.6 K% at Triple-A, but Chicago is in full rebuild, and if they give him time, he’ll hit dingers” … right on cue, Chicago called him up, and he did in fact hit dingers with a 101.4 MPH homer off Sandy Alcantara for the 1st of his career. He’s 1 for 6 on his young career. The BA could be terrible, but the power is no joke.

Matthew Lugo – LAA, OF, 23.10 – Speaking of hitting your first MLB dinger, Matthew Lugo joined that club yesterday with a 108 MPH homer off Felix Bautista. He did it coming off the bench for Jo Adell, he of the 65 wRC+ and negative 3.5 defensive value. He has a negative 0.4 WAR right now. I might be insane, but I actually don’t want to give up on Adell yet as his .330 xwOBA is actually much better than his surface stats, but I mean, he’s going on his 6th year of being brutal. The problem is that Lugo hasn’t been all that great at Triple-A himself with a 65 wRC+, so I don’t think a change here is imminent, but I liked Lugo this off-season, and even with the slow start, he would be worth a shot if he does find his way into the lineup more. Just a keep your eye situation right now.

Jordan Lawlar – ARI, SS, 22.10 – The wait is over. Lawlar is getting the call to the big league club after demolishing Triple-A all season. He just ranked 2nd overall on my Updated Top 323 Prospects Ranks, and while it doesn’t seem like there is an open spot for him, Arizona claims they will be able to find at bats for him. Optimally you want to call a guy up like this to a full time job, but he’s too good to not be helping the big league club, so I get it. He’ll get eased in, and then when Eugenio Suarez’ contract runs out after this season, he will take over 3B for good.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

Posted on December 19, 2022December 27, 2022 by Michael Halpern

St. Louis Cardinals 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the St. Louis Cardinals 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 43 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100 COMING LATER IN THE OFF-SEASON)
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: TOP 68 C//TOP 95 1B//Top 105 2B//Top 115 3B
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago Cubs (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Los Angeles Dodgers (free)—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

Hitters

Lars Nootbaar STL, OF, 25.7 – A Nootbaar is like one of the those healthy, organic, 90% cocoa dark chocolate bars. It’s an adult snack that is heart healthy. It has an excellent plate approach (20.5%/14.7% K%/BB%), hits the ball hard (91.7 MPH EV), and is fast (28.2 ft/sec sprint). It’s a sensible snack that fits into a healthy diet. But it lacks that flair factor. It’s got no caramel, no peanut butter, no nuts, no nougat. It has a line drive approach (10.7 degree launch) and it’s never been a big base stealer, so you can’t expect big homer and steal totals. You’re not getting that flavor explosion. “Everything in moderation, even moderation,” is possibly the most important words to live by, and it applies here. A team full of Nootbaar’s will be boring, but he can be the perfect piece to fit into a more high risk, high reward lineup. 2023 Projection: 79/20/74/.258/.351/.454/8

Tyler O’Neill STL, OF, 27.10 – O’Neill wasn’t able to back up his 2021 breakout with a .700 OPS in 96 games battling a variety of injuries throughout the year, but I only look at it as a buying opportunity. He matured at the plate with a career best 26.9% K% and career best 9.9% BB%. His .331 xwOBA was much better than his .307 wOBA. The power/speed combo was still beastly with a 96.1 MPH FB/LD EV and 29.8 ft/sec sprint. He’s setting up for a monster 2023 and there is now a buying opportunity you should jump all over. 2023 Projection: 81/29/89/.254/.326/.492/18

Juan Yepez STL, 1B/OF, 25.1 – Yepez has a defense problem, which might not be as big of a deal on another team, but with Goldy locked in at 1B and St. Louis’ prowess in developing underrated hitters (and property rated hitters too), it’s a big deal. He put up a 109 wRC+ on the back of his contact/power profile, but his negative 9.8 defensive value made him a 0.1 WAR player in 76 games. His contact/power combo also isn’t quite huge enough to really force St. Louis’ hand with an average 22.3% K% and below average 86.5 MPH EV (the 93.6 MPH FB/LD EV is above average). His 5.8% BB% led to a .296 OBP, which is really unacceptable for a bat only player. Yepez has Gorman, Jordan Walker, and Alec Burleson all nipping on his heels for at bats. You simply can’t trust he has a full time job, and it seems very likely that he doesn’t. 2023 Projection: 51/19/57/.248/.309/.460/0

Starting Pitchers

Jack Flaherty STL, RHP, 27.6 – Don’t get pulled in on the name value. A shoulder injury completely wrecked Flaherty’s season, limiting him to 36 IP, and nothing looked resolved when he returned in September. His control was completely gone with a 13.2% BB% and his whiff% hit a career low 25.5%. You can say you are buying the track record and giving him a pass, but he’s been bad for years now with a 5.03 xERA in 2020, 4.89 xERA in 2021, and 4.94 xERA in 2022. His stuff was mostly back and he still induced weak contact, so I don’t think he he is a complete lost cause, but his injury and performance risk would prevent me from acquiring him at anything other than a sweet heart price. 2023 Projection: 8/3.98/1.28/140 in 140 IP

Jordan Montgomery STL, LHP, 29.9 – Montgomery credited his extra success with St. Louis (3.11 ERA vs. 3.69 ERA in NY) on their trust in letting him throw his 4-seamer more, but considering he was starting to fall apart a bit at the end of the season (4.97 ERA in final 38 IP), I’m leaning towards it just being small sample variation. He’s a damn good pitcher no matter how you slice it with 2 bat missing secondaries in his curveball (41.4% whiff%) and changeup (41% whiff%), to go along with plus control of the entire 5 pitch arsenal (5% BB%). If he feels more comfortable going to the 4-seamer more, it didn’t seem to hurt him at the very least. 2023 Projection: 11/3.56/1.18/160 in 170 IP

Bullpen

Ryan Helsley STL, Closer, 28.9 – Helsley doesn’t have the name value or the track record, but that is all that is holding him back from being a legitimate option for first closer off the board. He put up a 1.25 ERA with a 39.3%/8.4% K%/BB% in 64.2 IP. He throws a 99.6 MPH fastball with a slider that put up a 53.5% whiff% and a curve that had a .071 xwOBA. Losing his control is the only thing that could stop him. 2023 Projection: 4/2.67/1.02/90/30 saves in 62 IP

Top 10 St. Louis Cardinals Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Jordan Walker STL, 3B/OF, 20.11 – Nobody smashes the ball as hard as the 6’5”, 220 pound Walker. One thing we don’t have to worry about is him getting to the majors and putting up like an 84 MPH EV. He’s gonna hit it hard. He was a 20 year old at Double-A and ripped 19 homers with 31 doubles in 119 games, good for a 128 wRC+. He then wrecked the AFL with 5 homers, 6 doubles, and a .925 OPS in 21 games. He has some swing and miss in his game, but it’s far from the danger zone with a 21.6%/10.8% K%/BB%, and he has plus speed with 22 steals, although considering his size, you might not want to count on him majorly in that category. He started to transition to the OF, which gives him a path to playing time with Arenado locked in at 3B. 2023 Projection: 42/12/47/.251/.326/.461/7 Prime Projection: 92/33/105/.267/.346/.513/12

2) Tink Hence STL, RHP, 20.8 – Say hello to the 2024 top pitching prospect in baseball. Hence was treated with kid gloves in 2022, never going over 4 IP, but he checked literally every other box. His stuff is straight filthy with 4 potentially plus pitches (mid 90’s fastball, curve, slider, change), he has an extremely athletic delivery with insane arm speed that reminds me a bit of Pedro Martinez, and his numbers were lights out with a pitching line of 2.16/0.96/81/15 in 52.1 IP at Single-A. He’s certainly getting plenty of hype right now, but it’s going to look like nothing compared to the hype explosion that’s coming in 2023. I was just able to nab him at 44th overall in the Toolshed Prospect Mock with other prospect writers/podcasters, so I think his price could still be relatively reasonable this off-season. He’s a buy high. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 14/3.29/1.09/205 in 180 IP

3) Masyn Winn STL, SS, 21.0 – The risk with Winn is that he just doesn’t hit the ball hard enough, and while he has a good hit tool, a 20.1% K% isn’t close to elite. If he puts up an 86 MPH EV with a 25% K% in his MLB debut it wouldn’t be all that surprising. A CJ Abrams situation could be on the horizon where his price takes a drop after his debut. Power is often the last tool to come with prospects though, so you don’t want to dismiss plus hit/speed combos who don’t have big power at 20 years old. This could be a mid 20’s breakout scenario rather than a guy who steps into the bigs and immediately sets the world on fire. An Andres Gimenez type come up would be the optimal path. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 81/15/63/.270/.333/.421/24

4) Alec Burleson STL, OF, 24.4 – Burleson is a St. Louis special. An underrated hitter who has quietly been raking forever. St. Louis’ ability to produce these types of prospects is likely a combo of superior scouting and superior development. He put up a 137 wRC+ with 20 homers and a 14.3% K% in 109 games at Triple-A. He made his MLB debut and while the surface stats didn’t look good with a .535 OPS in 53 PA, the underlying numbers looked good with a 91.7 MPH EV, 17.9%/9.4% K%/BB%, and .322 xwOBA. The upside might not be huge with a line drive approach, and he’ll have to scratch and claw for playing time, but I’m pretty confident in saying this guy is going to be a legit MLB hitter. 2023 Projection: 29/9/33/.262/.311/.430/1 Prime Projection: 76/23/81/.277/.330/.451/2

5) Cooper Hjerpe STL, LHP, 21.7 – Selected 22nd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Hjerpe is a classic Cardinals pick of a rock solid, safe starter who might be better in real life than fantasy. I say “might be,” because he has that funky lefty delivery that I am an absolute sucker for, but I’m also staying conservative on his ranking because the stuff says more 3/4 type starter with a low 90’s fastball, and I’m concerned more advanced hitters won’t be quite as thrown off by the delivery. Regardless, he dominated the Pac12 with a 2.53 ERA and 161/23 K/BB in 103.1 IP, and he’s in a great developmental organization. If you play in a deep league or league where good real life pitchers get bumps, I can definitely see targeting Hjerpe. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 12/3.87/1.24/ 172 in 172 IP

6) Gordon Graceffo STL, RHP, 23.0 – Graceffo has big stuff with a fastball he can get into the upper 90’s, and he has plus control with a 6.3% BB% at Double-A, but the strikeout numbers leave something to be desired. He put up a pitching line of 3.94/1.07/83/24 in 93.2 IP at Double-A. It was good for a 4.63 xFIP. He didn’t put up big K numbers in college either, although he was able to destroy High-A with a 33.9% K% in 45.2 IP, so there could be more in the tank. He’s a big dude at 6’4”, 210 pounds with a herky jerky righty delivery that doesn’t exactly scream upside. He strikes me as a #4 type starter who could play up with St. Louis’ excellent defense behind him. 2023 Projection: 1/4.38/1.31/12 in 15 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.94/1.24/161 in 175 IP

7) Joshua Baez STL, OF, 19.9 – The 6’4”, 220 pound Baez has big time power with big time strikeout issues. He hit 3 homers with a 170 wRC+ in 20 games at Single-A, but it came with a 38% K%. He had a 32.6% in 12 games at rookie ball too. He’s not just a hulking slugger, he’s a good athlete with some speed, stealing 10 bags in 32 games. He’ll still be firmly 19 years old when the 2023 starts, which is a similar age to the incoming rookie class, so he’s ahead of the game. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/25/82/.242/.324/.472/8

8) Matthew Liberatore STL, LHP, 23.5 – Liberatore managed to get worse his 2nd run through Triple-A. He put up a 4.04 ERA in 124.2 IP in 2021, and then a 5.17 ERA in 115 IP in 2022. His MLB debut didn’t go much better with a 5.97 ERA and 17.4%/11.2% K%/BB% in 34.2 IP. The numbers don’t look great, but he has the stuff and repertoire to be a mid to back end starter. He throws a 5 pitch mix led by a beautiful plus curveball that is a plus pitch, putting up a .259 xwOBA and 35.2% whiff%. He combines that with a 93.7 MPH fastball that is his most used pitch, a 92.8 MPH sinker that was not effective at inducing grounders (14 degree launch), a 85.9 MPH changeup that got destroyed, and a 86 MPH slider that is his least used pitch but was excellent when he went to it (.176 xwOBA). Even watching him in the minors I thought it was clear he has to go to his curve more (and slider more too). He’s not a finished product, but the ingredients are there for him to turn into a solid MLB starter if he can find the right pitch mix. 2023 Projection: 3/4.41/1.36/71 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 10/4.12/1.29/158 in 170 IP

9) Jonathan Mejia STL, SS, 18.0 – The switch hitting Mejia cracked my 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings at #999, and he proved he deserved to be on the list with a strong pro debut in the DSL, slashing .267/.418/.479 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 23.1%/15.9% K%/BB% in 45 games. It was good for a 145 wRC+. He’s not the type who is likely to explode to elite prospect status, but there is potential for an above average hit/power combo at peak. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 75/21/78/.268/.331/.444/6

10) Ivan Herrera STL, C, 22.10 – Contreras’ signing with St. Louis makes Herrera a back up for the foreseeable future. He hit 6 homers with a 50.8% GB% in 65 games at Triple-A and then put up a 85.2 MPH EV with 0 barrels in 22 PA in his MLB debut. He has a strong plate approach with above average contact rates and plus walk rates throughout his minor league career, so while he could be a solid real life hitter, he’s not a fantasy target. 2023 Projection: 6/1/8/.242/.308/.388/0 Prime Projection: 61/16/65/.265/.337/.421/2

11) Moises Gomez STL, OF, 24.7 – It’s hard to ignore a guy who cranked 39 homers in the upper minors and was more or less age appropriate for the levels, but a 34.7% K% is equally hard to ignore. Gomez is a corner OF bat without a clear path to playing time and major hit tool risk. The huge power season puts him back on the map, but he’s trending towards a bench power bat. 2023 Projection: 9/3/11/.211/.290/.417/1 Prime Projection: 42/15/47/.226/.305/.437/3

12) Michael McGreevy STL, RHP, 22.9 – McGreevy is the classic arm who holds more value in very deep leagues. He doesn’t have big stuff with a low 90’s fastball, and he isn’t a strikeout pitcher with a measly 18.4% K% in 99 IP at Double-A. It led to a 4.64 ERA. He’s a back end starter. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 9/4.21/1.32/140 in 165 IP

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

I have some thoughts on a few recent signings:

Noah Syndergaard signs with the Dodgers for 1 year, $13 million – This one almost feels too easy. Like we’re falling into a trap. Thor is a shell of his former self, but he accepted that reality and was barely throwing his 4-seamer by the end of the season. He has the skills to transition into more of a finesse pitcher with plus control over a 5 pitch mix, and he still throws respectably hard with a 93.6 MPH sinker and 94.1 MPH 4-seamer. If anybody can unlock every drop of upside left in this tank, it’s the Dodgers. I don’t think he’s all of a sudden going to turn into a strikeout machine with them, but I’m expecting strong ratios and wins. I’m buying back in as a Top 200 ish dynasty asset.

Carlos Correa signs with SF for 13 years, $350 million – I was already fading Correa’s boring fantasy profile, and with his move to San Francisco, I’m even further off him. SF has the 2nd worst park in the league for righty homers, and while it plays around neutral in general, homers are king for fantasy. I’m not seeing a path to fantasy upside. He ranked 120th on my Top 150 Sneak Peek of the Top 1,000 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings.

Carlos Rodon signs with the Yanks for 6 years, $162 million – Rodon is the type of elite starter where you don’t sweat the small stuff. He gets a ballpark and stress downgrade signing with the Yanks, but elite stuff conquers all. There is still injury risk, but obviously the Yanks felt comfortable enough with him to give him a 6 year deal. The move to NY doesn’t change his value for me in either direction.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on August 29, 2022August 29, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/29/22)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/29/22):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT, INCLUDING:
-TOP 350 AUGUST 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 455 AUGUST 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS (one of my favorite things I’ve ever written)
-MID-SEASON OBP TOP 447 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-MID-SEASON POINTS/6+CATS/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 430 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 40 2023 FYPD RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

Kyle Manzardo TBR, 1B, 22.0 – Italian Lunch made quick work of the Blue Wahoos, ripping a line drive homer that made a beeline for the Truly Hard Seltzer sign hanging beyond the right field wall. I’m old enough to remember when a man choosing to drink a hard seltzer would be met with endless ridicule, but these days we can drink anything we want without being made fun of! Progress! Since being called up to Double-A he’s dominating with a 1.052 OPS and a 15.9% K%. Not missing a beat in the upper minors takes away any obstacle to flying him up the rankings. He checked in at #188 on the Updated Top 455 Dynasty Rankings that hit my Patreon last week.

Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 18.6 – Speaking of flying up the rankings, Jackson “flying up the rankings” Chourio cracked his 5th homer in 21 games at High-A (17 homers in 83 games overall) on a 1 for 2 with 0 K day. He now has a 130 wRC+ with a 20.8% K% at the level. I know some people are hesitant to go all in on an 18 year old in the lower minors, but this stage of a superstar’s career is when the biggest mistakes are made in dynasty. Don’t let a savvy manager steal him away from you for a good but not truly great win now piece this off-season.

Oswald Peraza NYY, SS, SS, 22.3 – “You never get a second chance to make a first impression.” That quote couldn’t be truer when it comes to prospects. A bad start to the season will have guys tumble down the rankings, and even they play with their hair on fire for the rest of the year, it’s like barely anyone notices. Peraza legitimately decimated a 426 foot homer that left his bat in the blink of an eye. He also tacked on a stolen base and went 4 for 7 in a doubleheader. He’s slashing .293/.361/.507 with 13 homers, 21 steals, and a 61/20 K/BB in his last 58 games at Triple-A.

Nick Lodolo CIN, LHP, 24.5 – 7 IP, 5 hits, 3 ER, 5/1 K/BB vs. Miami. The underlying numbers looked better though with his curve and change putting up a silly 77% whiff% and 50% whiff%, respectively. The Solo Lodolo man is going to have to do it by himself because Cincy has the 3rd worst defense in baseball and the home ballpark is terrible too. It definitely puts a little damper on how good I think he could be in a more neutral pitching environment, but I love him enough to overlook the negatives. He clocked in at #116 overall on the Updated Top 455 Dynasty Rankings. I’m all in on him despite the red flags that are being waved directly in front of my eyes.

Roansy Contreras PIT, RHP, 22.9 – 5 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 7/2 K/BB vs. PHI. The underlying numbers were a mixed bag with his velocity down majorly across the board, but it was working for him because he put up a 40% whiff% with a 86.4 EV against. The fastball being down almost 2 MPH to a pedestrian 94.3 MPH isn’t great to see though. I’m honestly not sure what to think here, but I’m leaning more towards the positive side.

Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 21.7 – Bradley desperately needed a good start at Triple-A after a stretch of rough ones, and he got it yesterday, going 6 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 5/1 K/BB. His 20.6%/7.4% K%/BB% in 30 IP at the level isn’t great. He might be setting up to be more Drew Rasmussen than Shane McClanahan. I don’t even mean that as too much of a diss as I love Rasmussen.

Max Muncy LAD, 1B/2B, 31.11 – This is just a heads up that Muncy is completely healthy after an elbow injury tanked the first half on his season. He went 3 for 5 yesterday and has a 176 wRC+ with a 92.8 MPH EV in 95 August PA. He’ll probably come at a discounted price this off-season unless he really goes out of his mind the rest of the way, which is possible.

Alex Bregman HOU, 3B, 28.4 – Continuing the “just a heads up that this guy is healthy now” segment of our programming, Bregman lifted off for his 7th homer in his last 17 games. He’s fully healthy after off-season wrist surgery sapped his power earlier in the year.

Mike Trout LAA, OF, 31.0 – Trout ripped his 4th homer in 9 games since returning from that “pretty rare” back injury. Apparently the back injury wasn’t rare enough to stop Trout.

Jake McCarthy ARI, OF, 25.1 – 1 for 4 with a 104.6 MPH double off Kendal Graveman. He stole 2 bags on Saturday. He’s now slashing .291/.352/.432 with 4 homers, 12 steals, and a 20.4%/7.7% K%/BB% in 68 games. I loved taking a flier on McCarthy this off-season. I ranked him 238th on my off-season Top 500 Prospects Rankings and wrote, “McCarthy is going to have to scratch and claw for playing time, but he has a very fantasy friendly profile if he can win some. He put up an elite 30.1 ft/sec sprint speed in his MLB debut and was 29 for 33 on the bases in 85 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He hits the ball on the ground too much and showed some swing and miss this year, but if you are looking for a close to the majors option with legitimate upside, McCarthy is your guy.”

Lars Nootbaar STL, OF, 24.11 – 1 for 3 with a walk and a 355 foot dinger off Jake Odorizzi for his 9th homer in 75 games. Nootbaar has been smashing the ball with a 91.7 MPH EV and his 20.4%/14.9% K%/BB% is impressive. He’s a line drive hitter and he doesn’t run a ton, so the fantasy upside isn’t huge, but St. Louis develops underrated hitters like him like it’s their job … come to think of it, it is their job.

Matt Mervis CHC, 1B, 24.4 – McCarthy and Nootbaar both ended up being excellent older fringe types to take a shot on last off-season, and Mervis is shaping up to be that guy this off-season. He went 2 for 5 with his 6th homer in 31 games at Triple-A, and it comes with a 13.7%/9.2% K%/BB%. The first base job could be his for the taking next year.

Stone Garrett ARI, OF, 26.9 – Stone Garrett crushed a 105.8 MPH dinger off Dylan Cease for his first MLB homer. He’s been absolutely crushing the ball in his 5 game debut with a 98.8 MPH EV. This is the first time he’s playing in a week, and considering Stone Garrett sounds like the protagonist in a spy novel, I have questions as to what he’s been up to over that missing week. Playing time might be an issue while he takes down international criminals on the side, but the power is for real when he does play. And before you say being a major league baseball player and a spy is unrealistic, you should look into Moe Berg.

Henry Davis PIT, C, 22.9/Endy Rodriguez PIT, C, 22.3 – Davis has been on a rehab assignment at Single-A returning from his 2nd wrist injury and he walloped his first homer in 4 games. Endy Rodriguez has been so dominant in his absence at Double-A (3 for 4 with a double yesterday) that a catcher competition is definitely brewing. The good news is that there is plenty of at bats to go around for everyone in Pitt. Both guys can keep catcher eligibility, stay healthy, and thrive.

Logan O’Hoppe LAA, C, 22.5 – I called O’Hoppe the most underrated catcher in baseball this off-season, and he’s not underrated anymore as he absolutely unloaded on his 22nd homer of the year at Double-A. He has a 184 wRC+ in 16 games since joining LA, and the future catcher job is his for the taking.

Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 22.4 – Casas busted out the whooping stick against a side winding righty, crushing a homer out to left center on a 2 for 4 day. He has a 1.040 OPS in his last 27 games at Triple-A. I think it’s time for Casas to get his feet wet against MLB pitching.

Joey Wiemer MIL, OF, 23.5 – Just when you’re ready to give up, Wiemer pulls you back in, going 2 for 4 with his 5th homer in 22 games at Triple-A. The K% is at a not terrible 23.3% and he’s also stolen 4 bags. I’ve held strong on Wiemer towards the back of the Top 100 because despite the struggles the raw talent is just too good to completely give up on. He’s also knocking on the door of the bigs.

Angel Martinez CLE, SS, 20.7 – Martinez got called up to Double-A and he’s thriving. He went 2 for 3 with a triple and homer yesterday, and he’s now slashing .292/.357/.750 with 2 homers, 1 steal, and a 13.8%/10.3% K%/BB% in 7 games. The power ticked up this year, and he combines that with plus speed and a plus plate approach. He’s setting up to be a solid across the board contributor, and considering he’s only 20, maybe he has another gear in there too.

Mick Abel PHI, RHP, 21.0 – 2.2 IP, 5 hits, 3 ER, 2/3 K/BB at Double-A. I don’t have Abel quite on the same level as Painter (who had another good start at Double-A on Saturday), but I still like Abel a lot despite the clunker yesterday. He might be settling in more in the mid-rotation range though as he didn’t really dominate High-A either with a 4.01 ERA and 27.7%/10.2% K%/BB%.

Chase Silseth LAA, RHP, 22.3 – 6 IP, 2 hits, 2 ER, 11/1 K/BB at Double-A. Silseth has been jerked around a bit as an up and down arm, which I doubt was the best thing for his development, but I do get that sometimes the team comes first. Regardless, he’s ripped up Double-A with a 2.63 ERA and a 33.5%/8.7% K%/BB% in 65 IP. He throws a 5 pitch mix headlined by a 95.4 MPH fastball. Despite getting hit up in the majors, he’s still an exciting pitching prospect.

Will Warren NYY, RHP, 23.2/Taylor Dollard SEA, RHP, 23.6 – Warren went 6 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER, and a 5/2 K/BB at Double-A. Dollard went 6 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 5/0 K/BB at Double-A. Neither guy has the K rates to get me really excited for fantasy (19.8% and 23%, respectively), but both can definitely be solid real life pitchers. The deeper the league, the more I would like them.

Garrett Mitchell MIL, OF, 24.0 – Mitchell made his MLB debut on Sunday and went 1 for 4 with a K and 2 RBI. The K rate and GB% is what to watch for, and right now the launch angle is sitting at 26.2 degrees and the whiff% is 28.6%. It’s only one game, but it’s better than if he had a 50% whiff% with a negative 2 degree launch angle. One game down, an entire career to go.

Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 21.11 – The #1 fantasy prospect in baseball will make his MLB debut today after working over upper minors pitching all season. He’s only 5’10” and has played in favorable hitter’s environments. He’s also shown some swing and miss throughout his career. The speed is unquestioned, so the power and strikeouts will be what to watch for in this final month.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on October 18, 2021November 12, 2021 by Michael Halpern

St. Louis Cardinals 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

I decided to switch it up a little bit, and instead of only doing a Top 10 Prospect list, I wanted to highlight some MLB guys too and talk some team specific strategy for every team to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the St. Louis Cardinals 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-Dynasty Team Reports for every team (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
–Positional Dynasty Rankings
-A slow rollout and early access to my 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
-End of Season 2021 Top 466 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
-End of Season 2021 Top 322 Dynasty Prospects Rankings

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks/Baltimore Orioles/Chicago White Sox/Miami Marlins/Milwaukee Brewers/Minnesota Twins/New York Yankees/Oakland Athletics/Philadelphia Phillies/St. Louis Cardinals

Hitters

Tyler O’Neill STL, OF, 26.9 – Who needs a good plate approach anyway? O’Neill is just a power/speed glutton, smashing 34 homers with a 93 MPH EV, and stealing 15 bags with a 29.7 ft/s sprint speed. There is tons of risk with a 31.3%/7.1% K%/BB% and 34.7% whiff%, but you can’t rule out improvement there with only 892 MLB AB under his belt. The BA is certainly coming down, but the power/speed combo is elite, and I’m willing to take on the risk for that upside 2022 Projection: 85/32/86/.263/.337/.510/13

Dylan Carlson STL, OF, 23.5 – Carlson is basically the anti Tyler O’Neill, putting together a yawner of a year, but sometimes boring can be good. He put up a 113 wRC+ in his rookie year which is quite good, he showed a mature plate approach with a 24.6%/9.2% K%/BB%, and he showed the ability to lift the ball with a 15.1 degree launch angle. He also popped off in his final 16 games with 5 homers and a 1.157 OPS to show what could be in store for the future. Carlson is a major buy this off-season. 2022 Projection: 89/23/79/.273/.350/.468/5

Starting Pitching

Jack Flaherty STL, RHP, 26.6 – I’m starting to grow a bit concerned with Flaherty. He put up a 5.07 xERA in 2020 and a 4.83 xERA in 2021. He missed time with an oblique strain earlier in the year and then with a shoulder strain later in the year, and his velocity was down a bit when he returned from those injuries. I guess you can look at this as a buying opportunity, but I would be hesitant to buy at name value price right now. If you can get a discount, then by all means. 2022 Projection: 10/3.83/1.18/181 in 168 IP

Adam Wainwright STL, RHP, 40.7 – Wainwright is a reminder that age can be such a dominating factor for dynasty owners, that older players can consistently get undervalued. He was a major reason why the eventual champion in my 12 team QS Dynasty League pulled away from the pack in the 2nd half of the season after I stupidly turned down multiple opportunities to trade for him myself before the deadline (I snuck into 2nd place on the final day of the season). He’s outperformed his xERA, xFIP, and FIP for the last 3 years, so I’m not exactly going after him, but I’m not going to completely dismiss him either. 2022 Projection: 11/3.95/1.27/156 in 175 IP

Bullpen

Alex Reyes STL, RHP, 27.7 – Reyes rightfully lost the closer job to Gallegos late in the year, and now has his eye on a rotation spot for 2022. He certainly has the arsenal to do it with a 5 pitch mix headlined by a 96.6 MPH 4-seamer and an elite slider, but his control is truly atrocious with a 16.4% BB%. He’s the ultimate high risk/high reward pitcher. If he improves his control, there is legitimate ace upside, but there is also a really good chance he ends up a high WHIP middle reliever. I’m prone to lean upside in fantasy, so I’ll definitely be willing to “overpay” by a few bucks (or a few rounds) in leagues where he is available this off-season. 2022 Projection: 7/3.89/1.34/130 in 115 IP

St. Louis Cardinals Top 10 Dynasty Prospects

1) Nolan Gorman STL, 3B/2B, 21.11 – Gorman’s hit tool took a huge step forward this year. He brought his K% down to 22% in the upper levels of the minors (29.7% in 2019), and he didn’t sacrifice much power with 25 homers in 119 games (and he’s already knocked one out in 3 games in the Arizona Fall League). The ingredients are there for him to become a complete middle of the order masher. 2022 Projection: 38/12/36/.248/.312/.445/2 Prime Projection: 83/28/90/.266/.339/.491/4

2) Jordan Walker STL, 3B, 19.10 – Walker has huge raw power at 6’5”, 220 pounds, and he got to a lot of it in his pro debut with 25 doubles, 4 triples, and 14 homers in 82 games split between Single-A and High-A. He’s also a good athlete for his size as he snagged 14 bags. While his plate approach regressed at High-A (27%/6.1% K%/BB%), it looked more advanced than expected at the age appropriate Single-A (17.2%/14.8% K%/BB%). He’s far from a finished product, but there is star upside. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 86/29/93/.262/.344/.502/8

3) Juan Yepez STL, 1B/3B/OF, 24.0 – Yepez completely destroyed the upper levels of the minors, slashing .286/.383/.586 with 27 homers and a 18.9%/11.8% K%/BB% in 111 games at mostly Triple-A. He carried that right over to the Arizona Fall League, going 3 for 10 with a homer, double, and 2/1 K/BB in 3 games. He’s always made solid contact throughout his minor league career and was showing seeds of a power breakout in 2019 before exploding in 2021. He’s not great on defense and he doesn’t exactly have a position, but you can’t ignore those offensive numbers. 2022 Projection: 21/5/25/.241/.303/.434/1 Prime Projection: 73/24/81/.258/.325/.470/3

4) Matthew Liberatore STL, LHP, 22.5 – Liberatore was given an aggressive assignment, jumping straight from Single-A in 2019 to Triple-A in 2021. He was a bit up and down in the first half, but he finished the season strong with a 2.55 ERA and 53/14 K/BB in his final 53 IP, which is a great sign. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but he has plus command of a 4 pitch mix and he knows how to pitch. 2022 Projection: 4/4.37/1.32/73 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.91/1.22/182 in 190 IP

5) Masyn Winn STL, SS/RHP, 20.0 – Winn might actually have a shot at being a two way player as he has explosive tools as both a pitcher and hitter. At the very least it gives him a legitimate back up plan if he can’t make enough of an impact at the plate. As for his hitting, he didn’t show much power in his pro debut with only 5 homers in 97 games split between Single-A and High-A, but there is more power coming down the line, and he had the wheels working with 32 steals in 37 attempts (obligatory disclaimer: rule changes made stealing bases easier at Single-A and High-A). He put up a 112 wRC+ in 61 games at Single-A before struggling at High-A with a 48 wRC+ in 36 games. As a pitcher, St. Louis gave him one inning towards the end of the season to show his stuff, and he impressed with a mid 90’s fastball and a nasty breaking ball. He pitched a clean inning with one K. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 77/15/62/.261/.320/.415/17 – 2/3.95/1.31/36 in 30 IP

6) Joshua Baez STL, OF, 18.9 – Drafted 54th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Baez was one of the youngest players in the draft and has one of the best power projections, notching a 102 MPH exit velocity at a Perfect Game event. He’s also relatively fast with a 6.67 60 yard dash time, showing he is not just a lumbering slugger. He doesn’t project for major strikeout issues, but there is some swing and miss to his game. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/25/84/.253/.336/.473/8

7) Ivan Herrera STL, C, 21.10 – Power broke out with 17 homers in 98 games at Double-A (played 1 game at Triple-A), and the plate approach remained strong with a 22%/13.7% K%/BB%. He’s not going to be a league winner, but he should be in the top 12 catcher conversation at peak. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 69/20/73/.271/.342/.448/2

8) Alec Burleson STL, OF, 23.4 – Burleson was drafted 70th overall in 2020 on the back of his strong hit tool, but there was definitely more power in the tank at 6’2”, 212 pounds. That power was unleashed in 2021 as he cracked 22 homers in 119 games split between 3 levels (A+/AA/AAA). He didn’t sacrifice his hit tool to get to it either as he put up a 20.1%/8.3% K%/BB%. The ceiling might not be huge, but he has a chance to be a damn good overall hitter. 2022 Projection: 8/2/11/.245/.300/.410/0 Prime Projection: 68/20/75/.273/.330/.453/2

9) Michael McGreevy STL, RHP, 21.9 – Drafted 18th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, McGreevy is a control artist who had a 1.5 BB/9 in his college career over 189.1 IP. The stuff isn’t huge with a low 90’s sinker and 3 secondaries (curve-best secondary, slider, change), but he’s young for his class and there could be more in the tank. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.18/1.26/158 in 170 IP

10) Lars Nootbaar STL, OF, 24.7 – Tink Hence was originally in this #10 spot, but Nootbaar’s AFL performance made me rethink that. He’s going bonkers in Arizona, slashing .314/.437/.643 with 5 homers and a 15/14 K/BB in 18 games. He held his own in his MLB debut with a 101 wRC+, an above average 89.1 MPH exit velocity and an advanced plate approach (22.6%/10/5% K%/BB%). He’s never stolen many bases, but he does have speed with a 28.4 ft/sec sprint speed. I’m worried he’s only a part time player, which is why I didn’t have him in the top 10 to begin with, but he deserves to crack this list. 2022 Projection: 41/10/38/.258/.327/.420/2 Prime Projection: 74/19/68/.272/.338/.448/4

11) Tink Hence STL, RHP, 19.8 – Hence was the 63rd overall pick in the 2020 Draft. He shows good control of a fastball that can reach 96 MPH, to go along with a plus slider and developing changeup. He has an easy delivery with lightening quick arm speed. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.12/1.28/167 in 160 IP

Just Missed

12) Luken Baker STL, 1B, 25.1

13) Brendan Donovan STL, 3B/2B, 25.2

14) Zack Thompson STL, LHP, 24.5

Strategy

St. Louis is known for their keen eye on drafting underrated hitters and their top notch ability to develop them. They do such a good job of it that there always seems to be a logjam for playing time, and it can be hard for them to know which ones to keep and which ones to trade. The ones they kept finally had big years, O’Neill especially, but Bader too. Guys like Burleson and Yepez fit this mold exactly, and both will almost certainly end up better values than it will cost to acquire them this off-season. If they can’t find playing time in St. Louis, they will get flipped to a team that does have room for them.

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)