St. Louis Cardinals 2026 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Make sure to check out the Strategy/Thoughts section towards the bottom of the post for my thoughts on the Oviedo and Ford trades. And A Top 132 Sneak Peek of the 2026 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings just hit the Patreon. But first, it’s all about the Cardinals on the Brick Wall today. Here is the St. Louis Cardinals 2026 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

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2026 DEEP POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 80 Catchers–Top 91 1B
END OF SEASON 2025 TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
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Hitters

Jordan Walker – STL, OF, 23.10 – Walker is a cautionary tale of when bat speed targets go wrong. The man swung a 78.1 MPH bat, which was 5th fastest in baseball (minimum 50 swings), behind Giancarlo Stanton, Oneil Cruz, Junior Caminero, and Riley Adams (and one ahead of Jhonkensy Noel). Just look at that list. That thing ain’t bulletproof. Cruz was a huge disappointment, Adams put up a .560 OPS in 286 PA, and Noel fell off the face of the earth with a .480 OPS in 153 PA. And of course, Walker was almost incomprehensibly bad with a .584 OPS in 396 PA. I’ve talked about it a bunch now this off-season, but don’t overrate bat speed. I was all over it last off-season and got some major hits from it, but it wasn’t some be all, end all stat that perfectly predicted breakouts. Many players were able to increase their bat speed substantially, making it risky to assume a players current bat speed is set in stone, and there were huge power breakouts from guys who actually decreased their bat to below average levels (Michael Busch). You can swing the bat as fast as you want, but if you can’t hit, you are in trouble, and Walker can’t hit anymore. The 31.8% K% and 36.6% whiff% were career worsts, leading to a .215 BA. He chases with a 34.1% chase% and he doesn’t lift/pull with a 11.3% Air Pull%. You can have all the talent in world, and Walker does have all the talent in the world, but it doesn’t matter if you can’t hit. He’s still young and he has a 116 wRC+ season under his belt in 2023, so of course I’m not sticking a fork in him, but I’m no longer going after him. As a free flier, bottom of the roster guy, sure, but anything more than that and I’ll pass. – 2026 Projection: 53/13/59/.233/.300/.400/11

Ivan HerreraSTL, C/DH, 25.10 – Herrera was my top catcher target last off-season, and I’m definitely pumped about the awesome season he had, clearly seeing his value rise majorly, but let’s be honest, a monkey could have thrown a rock and hit on a catcher breakout in 2025. He also lost catcher eligibility in most leagues with only 14 games played, but all signs point towards him getting it back quickly into 2026. Both Herrera and the Cardinals are fully committed to him as a catcher and working to improve defensively this off-season. He underwent elbow surgery to remove loose bodies in October, which is a great sign, because there is hope that can improve the biggest weakness of his game, throwing guys out. Even if he can’t maintain eligibility long term, it seems highly likely he will have it for most of 2026, and his bat is good enough to go after even with that risk. The reason I loved him so much last off-season was that his .367 xwOBA led all catchers, and while he didn’t lead all catchers in 2026, he took it up a notch to .371. There is no question this dude is a special hitter. He increased his bat speed 1.1 MPH to 74.3 MPH and it led to even more power with a 1.9 MPH increase in EV to 91.2 MPH and a 5.6 point increase in Hard Hit to 47.7%. It led to 19 homers in only 107 games. He combined the power increase with a 18.6/9.5 K%/BB%, and while he doesn’t lift and pull a ton, the 10.1 degree launch and 14.6% Air Pull% is conducive to both homers and BA. He also runs a bit with 8 steals. The bat is good enough to profile anywhere (they dabbled with him in the OF in 2025) and is clearly one the Cards are going to get in the lineup no matter what. – 2026 Projection: 78/23/78/.280/.368/.465/9

Willson Contreras – STL, 1B, 33.11 – The hope that Contreras would unlock some new level of hitting without having to be a catcher didn’t come to pass with him putting up a 124 wRC+ vs. his career 122 wRC+. Still really good, but 20 homers with a .257 BA didn’t exactly blow the doors off even being able to use him at catcher. There was also hope playing full time would make him a cheat code at the position, and while he wasn’t a cheat code, it definitely helped him to finish 6th at the position. He put up a career high 563 PA and it led to a career high 70 Runs and 80 RBI. It wasn’t the beast we wanted, but we at least got a small bump from it. Now going into 2026 he will be losing catcher eligibility and turning 34 years old, so it would be hard to expect anything more than a solid 1B bat, but I do see an avenue to some upside. He put up a career best 19.8% Air Pull%, and while he couldn’t fully take advantage of it in the 5th worst park for righty homers (7 homers at home vs. 13 on the road), he is getting major trade buzz this off-season. If he lands in the right ballpark, we might see that offensive explosion we hoped for in 2025. Even without out, he’s still an excellent hitter regardless of position with an elite 76 MPH swing and 13.9% Barrel%. Losing catcher eligibility hurts, but don’t underrate him going into 2026. We could still see a huge season depending on if he gets traded or not. – 2026 Projection: 73/24/84/.260/.350/.465/4

Pitchers

Matthew Liberatore – STL, LHP, 26.5 – Liberatore put up a 4.21 ERA with a 18.8/6.2 K%/BB% in 151.2 IP  … and that makes him the fearsome staff ace of the St. Louis Cardinals … remember this when everyone calls Tink Hence, Brandon Clarke, and even Liam Doyle future relievers. St. Louis would have to be out their damn mind to shift anyone into the bullpen until they’re like 29 years old and 3 Tommy John’s deep. Until that time, they are starters. How could you draw any other conclusion looking at this shit show? To Liberatore’s credit, he did actually “breakout” in 2025 by improving his control to plus levels with a 6.2% BB%. The curveball put up an impressive .192 xwOBA and 32.6% whiff%, the changeup put up a +7 Run Value, and the slider was solid with a +2 Run Value and 32% whiff%. The problem was that the 93.9 MPH fastball just wasn’t very good. It got destroyed with a .379 xwOBA and a lowly 12.1% whiff%. A bad fastball with maybe above average secondaries and above average to plus control just isn’t very enticing. It’s a #4/5 profile that plays down in fantasy due to the lack of strikeouts. – 2026 Projection: 9/4.08/1.29/139 in 160 IP

Michael McGreevy – STL, RHP, 25.9 – Liberatore better be careful, because McGreevy might just surpass him as staff “ace.” Sure all of his secondaries are bad, and sure his 4-seamer is actually worse than Liberatore’s, but his control is bordering on elite with a 5% BB%, and his 91.8 MPH sinker is a genuinely awesome pitch. It put up a +9 Run Value with a .278 xwOBA and negative 1 degree launch. It was dominant in 2024 in the majors too, so that wasn’t a fluke. It led to a 4.42 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and a 14.5/5.0 K%/BB% in 95.2 IP. That K% is awful, and while the 19.2% whiff% shows his true talent level is higher than that, that whiff rate is really bad too. Like I said, his secondaries and 4-seamer were bad. He threw the sinker only 21.7% of the time, and I have no idea why. He should throw it like 70% of the time and I’m not sure I’m kidding. If you want to look for some hope, the secondaries were much better at Triple-A and he put up a 25.5% K% there, so he should do better as he gains more experience in the majors. He’ll be in a great ballpark and even if he’s a back end starter, his WHIP has the potential to be a plus in fantasy due to the elite walk rates. There are worse options out there in deeper leagues, but he’s only a deeper league play right now. He’s not going to be one of my favorite fliers in shallower leagues. – 2026 Projection: 9/4.05/1.21/121 in 160 IP

St. Louis Cardinals 2026 Top 10 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Prospects Rankings

1) JJ Wetherholt STL, 2B/SS, 23.7 – Wetherholt was exactly who we thought he was. It’s exactly who he’s been since his freshman year of college. It’s exactly who he’s been since his pro debut in 2024. And now it’s exactly who he’s been through the upper minors, slashing .306/.421/.510 with 17 homers, 23 steals, and a 14.7/14.5 K%/BB% in 109 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He crushes the ball with a 91.4 MPH EV and 49% Hard Hit%, he’s got speed, and the plate skills are near elite. He’s not a huge lift and pull guy, but he doesn’t have to be for this type of profile. The 12 degree launch and 13.6% Air Pull% aren’t too bad, and he can easily improve on those over time. The 24.3 whiff% at Triple-A wasn’t quite as good as the K%, so he might not truly be an elite contact guy, but the hit tool is clearly plus at least. He was projected to be a .280/20/20 type coming out of the draft, and that is now cemented with his excellent first full year of pro ball. He’s also expected to break camp with the big league club as their starting 2B. Proximity, safety, upside … he’s got it all. This is an elite prospect. – 2026 Projection: 76/16/68/.262/.331/.425/19 Prime Projection: 103/21/82/.284/.369/.473/24

2) Joshua Baez – STL, OF, 22.9 – Back in early July, when Baez was still getting lukewarm love, when people were still hesitant to really go all in, I saw the opportunity to strike, naming him one of my top Mid-Season Targets, writing, “This guy just has Lawrence Butler 2.0 written all over him. I know his hype has been rising, but I still think even a super savvy dynasty owner might be looking at him as a perfect sell high opportunity. Popped up “out of nowhere,” there is hit tool risk, they just might be thinking they are the one getting one over on you, but it’s going to be the other way around. Play possum on this one. Dummy up. Because what Baez is doing is exactly what Butler did. He’s an absolute specimen at 6’3”, 220 pounds, he crushes the ball, he has 34 steals in 39 attempts in 69 games total, and he now has a 25.8/16.4 K%/BB% in 31 games at Double-A. He’s proving his hit tool gains are real. And the insane, true elite talent is there. Pretend you’re the fool buying in too hard, and then don’t gloat when in a year or two their former owner realizes the mistake they make. You just got lucky ;)” … and then not only did he continue to keep it up, he took the hit tool up a notch with a 14.1%/10.6% K%/BB% in his final 40 games of the season at Double-A. The dude is a jacked 6’3” version of Kevin McGonigle out there ha, not quite, but you get the point. He finished the season going 20/54 in 117 games. Like we saw with Lawrence Butler in 2025, it’s hard to feel we are ever completely out of the woods with the hit tool risk on these types, but the massive improvement he showed, combined with his monster upside, is worthy of an extremely high ranking on a fantasy list especially. Since I wrote that Target blurb, his hype has already exploded, and if you took my advice back then, you almost surely already feel like you got one over on somebody. But he’s still on the underrated side now too, so it’s not too late. This is a Top 20 dynasty prospect, and that might still be underselling him. – 2026 Projection: 17/6/23/.228/.301/.418/7 Prime Projection: 79/25/84/.248/.327/.471/28

3) Liam Doyle – STL, LHP, 21.10 – Having an elite fastball is so important if you want to truly break into to the upper echelon of MLB pitchers. I wrote about it in the Blue Jays Team Report when I was giving my reasoning for going Burns over Yesavage (I still love Yesevage) as the #1 pitching prospect in baseball, and it’s my reasoning for giving Doyle the very slight edge over Kade Anderson in FYPD Rankings. Doyle has the type of overpowering, high strikeout, mid to upper 90’s, elite movement profile fastball that has the potential to simply bulldoze through the minors in the blink of an eye, a la Chase Burns. He’s not as good as Chase Burns, but he’s the closest thing this draft has to him. The secondaries aren’t as impressive as the fastball, which is where the edge goes to Anderson (and Anderson has an excellent fastball too despite the mediocre velocity), but I think they get undersold. The splitter dominated college hitters with elite whiff rates, the slider has above average potential with bat missing ability, and he’s working on a cutter too. His 42.6% K% led all of D1, and the 8.3 BB% shows the control isn’t in the true danger zone. I also think it says something that the Cardinals drafted him 5th overall. This isn’t the usual Cardinals type of pitcher. They lean floor over upside (although that seems to be changing of late). But quite clearly they fell in love with Doyle’s upside, which I’m also falling in love with. Kade Anderson is the safer choice and he landed in the perfect situation in Seattle, but I lean pure explosion, and Doyle has more of that explosion than Anderson has right now. St. Louis also has a pitcher’s park. Doyle is my top pitcher in FYPD’s, non Imai division (who I have 1st overall), and it sure seems like he’s going to debut in 2026. – 2026 Projection: 4/3.82/1.27/75 in 70 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.33/1.07/209 in 178 IP

4) Rainiel Rodriguez – STL, C, 19.3 – Because I felt the need to kinda shit on Rodriguez a bit in the Duno blurb (which you can read in the Cincinnati Reds Team Report that I posted on the Brick Wall a few weeks ago), let me start off this blurb with some excitement, because Rodriguez deserves it. He was the top catcher breakout in the DSL in 2024 with a monstrous 10 homers and 190 wRC+ in 41 games, and then he managed to one up even that at stateside rookie in 2025 with 7 homers and 237 wRC+ in 20 games. That kind of dominance at the rookie ball levels is some of the best we’ve really ever seen, so it was no surprise to also see him kill it at Single-A, slashing .249/.373/.498 with 13 homers, 3 steals, and a 17.4/14.0 K%/BB% in 60 games. I completely understand looking at this level of production as an 18 year old and saying this is one of the most special bats in the minors league, period, regardless of position. He’s a lift and pull god with a 20 degree launch and 29.4% Air Pull%, the plate skills are excellent, and he hits it hard, especially for his age, with a 104.3 MPH 90th% EV and 39.2% Hard Hit%. I love his bat. The things to quibble with are just that, minor quibbles. Sure the path to playing time isn’t clear, but a bat like this generally clears the way for itself no matter who is in it’s path. The ballpark isn’t great, and with his current level of lift/pull and hard hit, it could result in low batting averages, but he’s so young that it would be silly to just say this is always who he is going to be. He will likely hit the ball harder at peak and also refine his general approach. Just because I have Duno ranked higher by a hair doesn’t mean I don’t love Rodriguez. I think it says more about how much I love Duno. Both are awesome. He ranked 15th overall in the Top 81 Catcher 2026 Dynasty Baseball Positional Rankings (Patreon). – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 76/27/83/.268/.354/.477/3

5) Tink Hence STL, RHP, 23.0 – Just look at St. Louis’ rotation. There is no reason for them to prematurely put anyone in the bullpen, and while Hence might not have the durability required to stick in the rotation, I don’t think St. Louis is done giving him that chance. I know everyone else is writing him off, but I’m not willing to do that yet. 2025 was basically a lost season, pitching just 21.1 IP due to a ribcage injury and shoulder inflammation. He battled shoulder, chest and lat issues in 2024. I’m not saying the injury risk isn’t sky high, because it is, I’m just saying if it were me, I’m holding him. His stuff is too good and his delivery is too smooth. The changeup might be straight elite, he’s got two good breakers in his gyro slider and curve, and the fastball sits mid 90’s. The righty delivery is truly a thing of beauty. He’s coming off a season where he put up a 2.71 ERA with a 34.1/8.1 K%/BB% in 79.2 IP at Double-A. Giving up on this would be nuts to me. I’m not willing to do it. I’m holding or grabbing him for free if his current prospect ranks are any indication of his dynasty value. – 2026 Projection: 2/4.05/1.32/28 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 9/3.68/1.23/147 in 140 IP

6) Brandon Clarke – STL, LHP, 23.0 – Remember what I said in the Doyle blurb about St. Louis moving away from their usual safety over upside approach when it comes to pitching? Well, targeting Clarke in the Sonny Gray trade is Exhibit B. When you talk about “looking the part,” nobody looks the part more than Clarke at 6’4”, 220 pounds with an athletic and smooth lefty delivery that he uses to fire upper 90’s gas with a potentially double plus slider. When he got off to a hot start to the season, it was giving visions of Garrett Crochet 2.0, but he couldn’t keep it up, finishing with a 4.03 ERA and 34.5/15.5 K%/BB% in 38 IP at mostly High-A. The lack of control got him in the end, and it’s that lack of control that can end up relegating him to the bullpen. Even if he does end up in the pen, he has the potential to be a dominant closer, but St. Louis has every reason to be as patient as possible. He simply hasn’t pitched very much, redshirting his freshman year at Alabama and barely pitching his sophomore year at Junior College. He dominated when healthy his junior year, and then he flashed that upside in pro ball, albeit in limited innings due to blisters. He underwent Tommy John surgery and had issues with his elbow earlier in his amateur career, which is why he barely pitched before his junior year. You might see that as risk, well, because it is risk, but I see it as opportunity for so much improvement potential. St. Louis is the perfect place for him, and I’m buying that upside. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 7/3.77/1.28/142 in 130 IP

7) Deniel Ortiz – STL, 1B/3B, 21.7 – I can’t help myself, I’m going after Ortiz. The red flags are there. He put up a 32% whiff% at Single-A, he’s not fast despite the high steal totals, he’s not a good defensive player and he was 20 years old in the lower minors, but man I’m a glutton for upside, and he has upside for days. Ortiz slashed .300/.416/.462 with 13 homers, 39 steals, and a 26.0/14.9 K%/BB% in 107 games split between Single-A and High-A. I take it as a great sign that the K rates were much better at High-A to close out the season with a 168 wRC+ and 22.3/13.8 K%/BB% in 30 games. He was a 16th round pick out of community college in 2024, so seeing an adjustment period in his first taste of advanced competition is normal. It’s not just the surface stats though, the underlying numbers jump off the page with a 91.5 MPH EV, 49.3% Hard Hit%, 18 degree launch, and 25% Air Pull%. He’s not fast, but he’s definitely a good base stealer, and we’ve seen plenty of not fast, good base stealers rack up plenty of steals in the majors. He’s also a solid rock at 6’1”, 230 pounds (although that weight looks high to me) with a beastly righty swing. I’m dodging those red flags left and right, because this is such a fun upside fantasy prospect. I’m taking on the extra risk. He’s a great target. He ranked 52nd overall in the Top 91 First Base 2026 Dynasty Baseball Positional Rankings (Patreon). – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 69/24/77/.244/.322/.449/15

8) Quinn Mathews – STL, LHP, 25.6 – I had a bad feeling that Mathews 2024 implosion at Triple-A to end the season shouldn’t have been completely dismissed, writing in his Top 1,000 blurb, “I think it’s easy to completely hand wave Mathews getting bombed at Triple-A to close out the season (6.48 ERA with a 27.8/17.7 K%/BB% in 16.2 IP), but I do think there might be at least a small amount of signal there that we shouldn’t just 100% dismiss.” … and I wasn’t nearly scared away enough, as his 2025 season looked much closer to what he did at Triple-A to close out the year than he what he did at Double-A. He put up a 25.4/17.5 K%/BB% in 94 IP. That is scary bad, and while I’ve been pounding home the point in 2025 that Triple-A is fucking hard, Mathews doesn’t have the big stuff to fall back on either. The fastball sat 93.1 MPH and put up a 18.2% whiff%. It wasn’t a complete disaster as the 3.73 ERA isn’t terrible, and the secondaries (slider/changeup/curve) all missed a ton of bats with the changeup standing out with a 56% whiff% and .208 xwOBA, but this wasn’t nearly the guy we expected coming off the huge 2024 breakout. He simply wasn’t able to keep it up, and he now looks more like a back end starter with mid-rotation upside, which isn’t a very highly valued dynasty asset. Pitching in St. Louis should help and there is nothing but opportunity there, so I wouldn’t completely give up on him, you just need to change expectations. – 2026 Projection: 4/4.38/1.41/79 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.06/1.33/142 in 155 IP

9) Leonardo BernalSTL, C, 22.2 – Bernal was seemingly having a big breakout as a 21 year old at Double-A with 11 homers and a .937 OPS in his first 47 games, but it proved to be just a hot start. He cratered after that with a .559 OPS in his final 65 games. He finished the year slashing .247/.332/.394 with 13 homers, 13 steals, and a 16.9/10.8 K%/BB% in 107 games. I closed out his Top 1,000 blurb last off-season by writing, “Bernal is a very solid catcher prospect who is probably on the underrated side, although he projects as more of a solid all around hitter rather than a true beast.” … and that evaluation still holds today. He’s a switch hitter and I like his swing a lot from both sides of the plate, but he did much more damage with his righty swing this year (.848 OPS vs. lefties). He also has strong plate skills and is a solid defensive catcher. Ivan Herrera has the hype on the MLB level, but it seems a long shot they will actually give him full time reps at catcher. Rainiel Rodriguez has the hype in the minor league system, but he’s 3 years younger than Bernal and his glove still needs work. Jimmy Crooks is ahead of Bernal on the depth chart at Triple-A, but Crooks looks more like a backup to me after a mediocre at best season. That leaves Bernal as the kinda middle option of all of them, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he were the one that emerged, as least until Rainiel is ready. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 64/17/68/.258/.327/.421/3

10) Jimmy Crooks – STL, C, 24.8 – Crooks could very easily be St. Louis’ main catcher in 2026. Herrera is a major question on defense, Pages is terrible on offense, Bernal is one level behind him on the depth chart, and Rainiel Rodiguez is a few years away. He has a good glove and he was solid at Triple-A with the bat, slashing .274/.337/.441 with 14 homers, a 104 wRC+ and a 26.5/8.4 K%/BB% in 98 games. He doesn’t crush the ball, but he can hit it hard with a 89.7 MPH EV and 42.1% Hard Hit%. The hit tool can so easily tank him though as we see with that AAA K/BB, and then it got exposed even more in the majors with a .133 BA and a 37.0/0.0 K%/BB% in 46 PA. He may be worse than Pages with the bat. That is why I have Bernal as the highest ranked non Rainiel option in the Cards minors, but Crooks could end up being the short term guy to emerge. Long term, it seems like he’s a backup. – 2026 Projection: 18/4/24/.226/.289/.355/0 Prime Projection: 38/10/46/.243/.309/.391/2

Just Missed

11) Ryan Mitchell – STL, SS, 19.2

12) Ixan Henderson – STL, LHP, 24.2

13) Yairo Padilla – STL, SS, 18.9 

14) Jesus Baez STL, SS/3B, 21.1

15) Nate Dohm – STL, RHP, 23.3

16) Tanner Franklin – STL, RHP, 21.10 

17) Nathan Church – STL, OF, 25.9

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Pittsburgh trades Johan Oviedo, Tyler Samaniego, and Adonys Guzman for Jhostynxon Garcia and Jesus Travieso 

Well, well, well … looks like I’m not only the one who loves Johan Oviedo. In my very first Dynasty Team Report of the off-season on the Brick Wall, I named Oviedo a true sleeper target that I didn’t think would gain a ton of hype as the off-season went along, but it turns out I didn’t have to just worry about other analysts jumping on board, I needed to worry about the Red Sox. They saw what I saw with that new and improved fastball, extension, size and near elite whiff rates. While I can’t be sure they are going to put him in the rotation, I kinda find it hard to believe they target him in this trade if he wasn’t going to be a favorite for a rotation spot. My love for him is even more emboldened by Boston sticking their neck out for him too. Unfortunately, he’s probably not as much of a sleeper anymore. And as for The Password, hell fucking yea. I pleaded with Boston to not make the same mistake the Orioles did and let their depth rot away, and they did the right thing. They freed him, and now it’s a clear runway for him to win an opening day job. That 75 MPH swing in his small sample MLB debut is all you need to know about the offensive upside in here. I won’t lie, the 86.4 MPH EV, 34.6% Hard Hit%, and 34.2% whiff% at Triple-A is quite bad, and it’s also a ballpark downgrade, so I can’t really say he’s some major target now. He gets a bump for sure, but look at those Triple-A underlying numbers one more time. Don’t go too crazy on him. As for real life, I think this is a very fair trade. Oviedo is majorly underrated, Boston had to trade Garcia, and Pitt had a surplus of pitchers and a dearth of hitters. Great trade all around for everyone involved.

Washington trades Jose Ferrer to Seattle for Harry Ford and Isaac Lyon

I was already out on Keibert Ruiz in my catcher rankings, writing, “Ruiz is not a starting MLB catcher. I mean, he is, but he shouldn’t be … Washington desperately needs to acquire at least a decent catcher in trade or free agency.” … and they very smartly did just that. This is an obvious huge boost for Ford’s dynasty value who not only leaves a situation where he was completely blocked, but enters one that is absolutely begging for him to take the job. I’m sure it will be a timeshare to start, and Ford’s potential is more solid across the board than standout, but especially in medium to deeper leagues, Ford becomes a lot more interesting. He already ranked higher than Ruiz for me in the catcher rankings, and this move will have him jumping about 7 spots to sit right under Joe Mack. On the flip side, it looked like Ferrer had a real chance to close in Washington, and that is now done. As for real life, while seemingly an overpay for Seattle on it’s face, I actually think it’s a fair deal. I’ve been a big fan of Ferrer since last off-season, and there is definitely more upside in the tank. 4 years of a very good reliever deserves a good haul, and considering Ford is more of a fringy Top 100 prospect with defense risk, that is a completely reasonable swap. I would have said yes from both sides of the aisle. Seattle had nowhere for him to play.

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Arizona DiamondbacksAtlanta BravesBaltimore OriolesChicago Cubs (free)Cincinnati Reds (free)Colorado RockiesDetroit TigersHouston AstrosKansas City RoyalsMiami MarlinsMilwaukee BrewersMinnesota TwinsNew York Yankees (free)Pittsburgh Pirates (free)Sacramento AthleticsSeattle MarinersTampa Bay RaysTexas RangersToronto Blue JaysWashington Nationals

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

New York Mets 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I like to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team, and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the New York Mets 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-SEPTEMBER 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-SEPTEMBER 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: SEPTEMBER MAILBAG! (9/22/23)
-Off-Season content includes team dynasty reports, deep positional rankings, predicting future prospects lists, strategy articles, podcasts and very, very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

Hitters

Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 22.4 – Two of the oldest tricks in the dynasty book of trading make Alvarez a very attractive target this off-season. A .222 BABIP dragged his BA down to .209 (only 5 players in all of baseball with over 400 PA had a lower BABIP), and he didn’t immediately put up Hall of Fame numbers in his rookie season with a below average 97 wRC+. Bad luck (the 26% K% and 31.8% whiff% weren’t bad at all), and lack of patience with prospects in their rookie year are basically the playbook on how to make trades that look fair at the moment, but end up looking like major rip-offs not too far into the future. And with top prospects flying through the minors faster than ever, these type of buy opportunities are likely to explode when everyone’s favorite 20 and 21 year olds take a minute to adjust to MLB pitching. It’s not like Alvarez’ price will be dirt cheap though, because his 25 homers were the 2nd most for all catchers, and the 90.1/95.7 MPH EV backs up the production. The scary thing is, this is just scratching the surface of his power potential. Alvarez is going to be a perennial 30+ homer bat from the catcher position for the next decade. 2024 Projection: 72/32/80/.239/.324/.472/4 Prime Projection: 85/34/93/.254/.351/.520/3

Mark Vientos NYM, 3B/1B, 24.4 – If Alvarez is out of your price range, Vientos might be more your speed, and you should be able to acquire him for next to nothing in most leagues. Like Alvarez, he got unlucky in 2023 with a .267 wOBA vs. .305 xwOBA, and like Alvarez, he has beastly power with a 92.5/97.6 MPH AVG/FB EV. That isn’t even “beastly power,” that is truly elite power. He put up a 94.4 MPH EV at Triple-A too. Speaking of Triple-A, he showed hit tool improvements at the level with a 21.6%/10.8% K%/BB% in 61 games, and completely demolished the level in general with a 143 wRC+. Showing that kind of swing and miss improvement gives hope he can do the same against MLB pitching with more experience (30.5% K% and 36.7% whiff%). Lack of defensive value is the biggest snafu, but elite power bats tend to force their way into the lineup, and at Vientos’ current dirt cheap price, it’s an easy call to take a shot on him. 2024 Projection: 59/23/71/.236/.315/.450/2 Prime Projection: 77/31/88/.248/.327/.493/2

Brett Baty NYM, 3B, 24.5 – Baty is stuck somewhere in between Alvarez and Vientos, in the sense he still has enough name value where his price won’t be that cheap, but his upside might not be quite high enough to pay that high price. He’s put up very high groundball rates his entire career and he had a 6.6 degree launch in 389 MLB PA in 2023. It led to a lowly 9 homers and 68 wRC+. He also doesn’t have the high contact rates to make up for it with a 28% K% and 31.5% whiff%. I don’t want this to come off like I don’t like him though, because I would bet on Baty becoming a very good MLB hitter. He has a mature plate approach, he hits the ball very hard, he has great size (6’3”, 210), he’s a solid defender at 3B, and he just looks like a hitter in the box. I’m just concerned about his upside in 5×5 BA leagues, and I don’t think his price will be all that cheap this off-season. 2024 Projection: 77/22/74/.246/.322/.435/4 Prime Projection:  84/26/88/.264/.347/.475/5

Pitchers

Kodai Senga NYM, RHP, 31.2 – Senga blew past all reasonable expectations in 2023. He put up a 2.98 ERA with a 29.1%/11.1% K%/BB% in 166.1 IP, and he was even better in the 2nd half with a 2.44 ERA and 29.8%9.1% K%/BB% in his final 84.2 IP. He did it on the back of an insane forkball that put up a 59.8% whiff% and .184 xwOBA. It was the highest whiff% on any pitch in all of baseball thrown at least 317 times (and if you lower the threshold all the way down to 54 pitches, it was the 4th highest mark). He throws gas with a 95.6 MPH fastball and has as diverse 6 pitch mix. Control is really the only thing that can tank him, and if you take into account he was adjusting to a new league and new ball in the 1st half of the season, his 2nd half 9.1% BB% really isn’t bad at all. It’s definitely possible he takes another step forward in year 2. Senga is the real deal. 2024 Projection: 13/3.37/1.17/197 in 165 IP

Bullpen

Edwin Diaz NYM, Closer, 30.0 – Diaz almost returned from March knee surgery in September, which makes me pretty confident he will be 100% in 2024. Any major surgery adds risk, but it’s not like it’s his elbow or shoulder. I’m treating him like the elite of the elite closer he is with a ridiculous 50.2% K% in 2022 on the back of a 99.1 MPH fastball and 90.8 MPH slider. If there is any slight discount to be had because of the injury, I would be all over it. 2024 Projection: 4/2.59/1.00/105/33 saves in 60 IP

New York Mets Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Ronny Mauricio NYM, 2B, 23.0 – I named Mauricio one of my top targets in the Top 10 Early Off-Season Dynasty Baseball Target article on Patreon. Mainstream prospects lists have been slowly sliding him down the rankings the closer he’s gotten to the majors, but I’ve done the exact opposite on my lists. He crushes the ball with a 117.3 MPH Max EV that was the 10th hardest hit ball all season. He had a 90.7 MPH AVG EV in 108 MLB PA (91.1 MPH at AAA). He loves to run with 7 MLB steals and 24 AAA steals, and his speed gets underrated with an above average 27.7 ft/sec sprint. He’s never had any major contact issues and he most certainly looks the part at 6’3” with a vicious swing. He doesn’t have a good plate approach with low walk rates, but keep in mind he’s always been very young for his level, and his 6.6% BB% at Triple-A (6.5% BB% in the majors) was a career high, so I wouldn’t bet against future improvement there either. His mediocre ranking on prospects and mediocre .643 OPS in the majors should create a very nice buy opportunity this off-season. 2024 Projection: 69/19/74/.254/.309/.435/21 Prime Projection: 83/24/83/.267/.325/.466/24

2) Jett Williams NYM, SS, 20.4 – Jett Williams got much thicker in all the right places in 2023, and that extra muscle paid dividends with him cracking 14 homers in 125 games split between Single-A (79 games), High-A (36 games), and Double-A (10 games). 9 of those homers came in his final 47 games. He combines the uptick in power with elite speed (45 steals), and an excellent plate approach (22.1%/19.5% K%/BB%). If he wasn’t 5’6”, he might be a consensus elite prospect already. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 93/20/77/.274/.350/.445/38

3) Luisangel Acuna NYM, SS/2B, 22.1 – Acuna’s power didn’t take a step forward in 2023 as hoped with only 9 homers in 121 games at Double-A, but there is definitely more raw juice in the tank with an explosive righty swing, and that was the only blemish on an otherwise excellent season. He put up a career best (other than the DSL) 18.6% K%, and he stole a career high 57 bases. It’s also really, really hard to resist the pull of elite bloodlines. Even if Acuna never develops big power, he can still be an impact fantasy player, and if does, watch out. 2024 Projection: 36/6/25/.239/.300/.382/14 Prime Projection: 82/17/68/.258/.328/.427/35

4) Drew Gilbert NYM, OF, 23.6 – Gilbert might be the safest prospect on this list. He does everything well on a baseball field with contact ability (18.9% K%), on base ability (11.3% BB%), power (18 homers), speed (12 steals), and good defense in 116 games at mostly Double-A. The power/speed combo isn’t quite big enough at only 5’9”, 195 pounds to really fly him up prospect lists, but he has a big lefty swing that makes him look much bigger in the box than his listed height, and I wouldn’t be shocked if his power surprised in the bigs. He’s a high floor prospect who might have more upside than his small stature would indicate. 2024 Projection: 41/10/33/.253/.318/.409/7 Prime Projection:  84/20/72/.273/.340/.438/14

5) Ryan Clifford NYM, 1B/OF, 20.7 – Here is what I wrote about Clifford in January of 2023 in my FYPD Target & Strategy Guide, “I’m planning on leaving every draft with Clifford, and he could be my #1 target in general. This guy checks almost every box you want to see for a monster power hitter (size, swing, lift, EV, organization, good pro debut, history of production). He also got drafted 343rd overall, meaning he should go super, super late in drafts. The one hiccup is the K rate was a bit on the high side, but the BB% was even higher to even it out, and he wasn’t expected to have major hit tool problems coming into the draft. He has legit star upside.” … you’re damn happy right now if you took my advice, as Clifford slashed .262/.374/.480 with 24 homers, 5 steals, and a 27.4%/12.5% K%/BB% in 115 games at mostly High-A. He scuffled after the trade to the Mets (so did Acuna), but I think you have to take into account an adjustment period when you join a new team, new city, new coaches etc … He’s right on track to become a high OBP, low BA slugger. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/30/86/.248/.332/.487/6

6) Christian Scott NYM, RHP, 24.10 – Scott had a truly elite 32.8%/3.4% K%/BB% in 62 IP at Double-A. He had a 107/12 K/BB in 87 IP on the season. Let’s not overthink things too much. Those are eye opening K/BB numbers and they led to a 2.57 ERA with a 0.86 WHIP. And it’s not like he did it with smoke and mirrors. He’s 6’4”, 215 pounds with a relatively easy, smooth, and athletic delivery . He throws a low to mid 90’s fastball that he can even got into the upper 90’s, and his slider is a plus, bat missing weapon. He rounds out the arsenal with a curve and change. To sum it all up, this a big man with elite control, a fastball that consistently hits the mid 90’s, a put away slider, a diverse pitch mix, and upper minors dominance. The more I think about and watch Scott, the more I love him. He’s getting considerably underrated. 2024 Projection: 3/4.22/1.28/44 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.82/1.18/169 in 160 IP

7) Alex Ramirez NYM, OF, 21.3 – Ramirez continues to sit in the breakout waiting room for his 3rd straight year. I know it’s getting frustrating, but all of the same ingredients are there that made him so exciting in previous years. He had a very good 21.9%/10.7% K%/BB% in 120 games at High-A, and he also stole 21 bags. He just needs to finally start tacking on mass to his skinny 6’3” frame, because only 7 homers with a 78 wRC+ is not going to get the job done. He’s too young to give up on such tantalizing tools, but 2024 is the last year he gets to live on “potential.” We need to see some real production. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 73/18/72/.252/.320/.423/21

8) Colin Houck NYM, SS, 19.6 – Selected 32nd overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, the 6’2”, 190 pound Houck is an excellent all around athlete who was also a heavily recruited star quarterback in high school. He’s not just raw tools though, he also has a good feel to hit with a mature approach at the plate. His value held serve in his pro debut with a dead average 100 wRC+, 0 homers, 0 steals, and a 22.2%/19.4% K%/BB% in 9 games. The power isn’t plus quite yet, and while he’s fast, he’s not lightning fast, so it all might project to an above average across the board profile. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 81/22/79/.272/.338/.453/14

9) Kevin Parada NYM, C, 22.8 – Parada had such an underwhelming season for an advanced college bat. He had 11 homers with a 25.1%/7.9% K%/BB% in 87 at High-A, and then he put up a 38.3%/6.7% K%/BB% with a 70 wRC+ in 14 games at Double-A. He didn’t hit for a ton of power, he didn’t get on base, and he didn’t hit for average. He’s not considered a good defensive catcher, so he was probably putting a ton of focus into his defense, which is often why catchers take longer to develop in general, but that isn’t exactly a point in Parada’s favor for fantasy either. He’s starting to look like a pretty low upside option with multiple areas of risk (hit tool, defense, Francisco Alvarez). ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 66/22/75/.247/.323/.447/2

10) Blade Tidwell NYM, RHP, 22.10 – The 6’4”, 207 pound Tidwell is a high upside pitcher with both control risk and reliever risk. He throws an electric fastball/slider combo with the fastball sitting mid to upper 90’s and the slider racking up whiffs. It led to a 3.09 ERA with a 33% K% in 81.2 IP at High-A and a 4.72 ERA with a 27.7% K% in 34.1 IP at Double-A. The problem is that his control is in the danger zone with a 12.9% BB%, and the changeup needs to develop into a legitimate 3rd pitch. You want to aim for upside in fantasy, which is why I like Tidwell at his current value, but he can very easily end up in the pen. 2024 Projection: 2/4.32/1.36/39 in 35 IP Prime Projection: 9/3.94/1.32/170 in 150 IP

Just Missed 

11) Marco Vargas NYM, SS, 18.10

12) Jeremy Rodriguez NYM, SS, 17.9

13) AJ Ewing NYM, 2B, 19.8 – Selected 134th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Ewing got dinged because of questionable power potential, but he’s not a small guy at a relatively strong 6’0”, and he hits the ball hard with a vicious lefty swing, so I’m not sure why that got put on him. He had a strong pro debut with a 161 wRC+, 0 homers (14.3% GB%), 1 steal, and a 28.6%/23.8% K%/BB% in 7 games. He has a good feel to hit, mature approach, above average speed, and more power than he is given credit for. He has a chance to be quite good. He makes for a great underrated FYPD target. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 82/20/79/.265/.336/.438/16

14) Mike Vasil NYM, RHP, 24.0

15) Jacob Reimer NYM, 3B, 20.1

16) Jesus Baez NYM, SS, 19.1 

17) Calvin Ziegler NYM, RHP, 21.6

18) Joander Suarez NYM, RHP, 24.1

19) Matt Rudick NYM, OF, 25.9

20) Brandon Sproat NYM, RHP, 23.7

21) Julio Zayas NYM, C, 18.2

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Opportunity is a major factor in success. I always think about how many players could have been successful major leaguers if they were given a legit opportunity and had the leash to make adjustments. As much as we want to fall in love with every poor defensive masher, or lightening fast utility type player, we have to account for the fact those types may very well never really get the opportunity to reach their full potential. There are only so many jobs available in major league baseball, and the vets who are on million dollar deals, or the high draft picks, or the high signing bonus players will get the priority over our favorite underrated prospects. Having said that, I’m going to ignore everything I just said and still go after the defensively limited Vientos this off-season. It’s easier to give advice than to take it 😉

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Chicago White SoxColorado RockiesKansas City RoyalsMilwaukee BrewersNew York Yankees (free)San Diego PadresWashington Nationals

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-SEPTEMBER 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-SEPTEMBER 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: SEPTEMBER MAILBAG! (9/22/23)
-Off-Season content includes team dynasty reports, deep positional rankings, predicting future prospects lists, strategy articles, podcasts and very, very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)