Jacob Melton – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on June 2, 2025June 4, 2025 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (6/2/25)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (6/2/25):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
–MAY 2025 TOP 443 DYNASTY RANKS (5/30/25)
–MAY 2025 TOP 323 PROSPECTS RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAY MAILBAG!
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2026 PROSPECTS RANKS
–SPREADSHEETS

Addison Barger – TOR, 3B/OF, 25.6 – Three weeks ago here in the Monday Rundown I ran to the town tower to ring the Buy Bell on Addison Barger, writing, “It’s time to target Barger everywhere. He actually has a positive 2.6 defensive value, which is getting me pumped, because his bat is no joke. He has an elite 76.3 MPH swing with a 13.6% Barrel%, 96.1 MPH EV. 13.5 degree launch, and .362 xwOBA in 59 PA. The plate skills are taking a big jump forward too with his K% all the way down to 16.9% (26.7% in 2024) and his Chase all the way down to 20.2% (31.5% in 2024). Barger is a major target right now. Go after him.” … and now the true star explosion is happening with him homering in 3 straight games. Yesterday’s was a 112.3 MPH piss missile. As I already gave you the heads up on weeks ago when not a peep was being whispered about this man, he looks like a true superstar. I’m not going to repeat all of those top of the scale metrics again, but all of them are still shining. I’ve seen the hype grow already as more people are noticing, so it could be too late, but I know if you read my work, you’ve had him for weeks already.

Jacob Wilson – OAK, SS, 23.0 – 4 for 4 with 4 singles … dude is a hit machine with a .357 BA and 5.8% K%. He also stole his 5th bag to go along with 7 homers in 57 games. And I really, really, really hate to do this, because he’s so fun, but I gotta pour just a little cold water. His .324 xwOBA is much much lower than his .393 wOBA. And he’s not the type of lift and pull hitter who generally outperforms Statcast. The 63.4 MPH swing is bottom of the scale, the 26.8 ft/sec sprint is well below average, and the 2.8% Barrel% is very weak. I’ve been seeing him valued like one of the elite up and coming dynasty players in the game, and if you can sell high on a valuation even close to that, I would be all over it. Now having that, I wasn’t buying Wilson this off-season, and that was clearly miss. So after doing a ton of victory lapping in this one below, let me take a walk of shame up top on Wilson. He’s a special contact hitter with enough homers and steals to be an impact fantasy player. He’s good for sure. He’s just not this good … I don’t think.

Hayden Birdsong – SFG, RHP, 23.7 – I knew it was only a matter of time before Birdsong found his way into the rotation, and he’s now solidifying that spot with another strong outing yesterday. He went 5.1 IP with 5 hits, 1 ER, and a 5/0 K/BB at MIA. The 4-seamer sat 95.9 MPH and put up a strong 24% whiff%. The slider was excellent with weak contact (83 MPH EV) and whiffs (26% whiff%), the curve was a whiff machine with a 40% whiff%, and the changeup induced weak contact with a 74.7 MPH EV against. And most importantly, the control was on point with 0 walks. His fastball is a double plus pitch, the 30.1% whiff% on the season is near elite, and he has a diverse pitch mix with 3 good secondaries (the changeup has been his best secondary thus far). He was a major target for me this off-season, and he just ranked 181st overall on the Updated Top 444 Dynasty Baseball Rankings that dropped on the Patreon last week. His come up has only begun.

Ryan Weathers – MIA, LHP, 25.4 – Speaking of off-season targets who we had to wait a little bit on for the breakout, Weathers returned from his forearm strain looking no worse for the wear. In fact, he looks better than ever, going 6 IP with 5 hits, 4 ER, and a 7/3 K/BB vs. SF. Not his best outing, but this was coming off 3 gems to start his season, and he still so clearly flashed that true top of the rotation upside. The 4-seamer sat 97.5 MPH, the changeup racked up 9 of 12 whiffs, the sweeper induced weak contact with a 67.8% EV against and a 25% whiff%, and the slider notched a 60% whiff%. It was good for an elite 36% whiff%. He now has a 2.49 ERA with a 25.3/8.0 K%/BB% in 21.2 IP. The 28.6% whiff% is double plus, the 87.3 MPH EV against is well above average, and all of his pitches are working for him. I loved Weathers this off-season, and I’m even more all in now.

Kris Bubic – KCR, LHP, 27.7 – Not to take away from myself in previous years, but I think I’m having a Target career year. I say this in all humility, it’s kinda nuts how many target hits I’m having this year, and Bubic is huge one. The cat’s already long out of the bag on him though, and he just keeps on dominating, going 7 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER and a 9/1 K/BB vs. DET. The 93 MPH fastball dominated with a 40% whiff% and the changeup dominated too with a 60.3 MPH EV against and 55% whiff%. The sweeper and slider performed well too, leading to a 33% whiff% overall. He’s been lights out all year with a 1.43 ERA and 26.9/7.5 K%/BB% in 75.1 IP. In my 18 teamer, I cashed him in for Jazz Chisholm back in mid April, and I can’t deny that trade has been eating at my guts ever since. I still have Jazz ranked higher, but man, Bubic is untouchable. I’m sick over it, and I’m not even kidding. Let me move on to the next blurb. I don’t want to think about it anymore …

Denzel Clarke – OAK, OF, 25.1 – Okay, so it hasn’t exactly been perfect with a 60% K% … to say the least, but give this man a second to get comfortable. And he has gotten slightly better of late. He went 1 for 3 with 2 steals yesterday, and yes it came with 2 K, but he didn’t strikeout once the day before that, and he only struck out once the day before that one. The 42.1% whiff% actually isn’t as horrific as the K%, and that’s been coming down too. We’ve seen Clarke make improvements to his contact in the minors too. And of course, that huge talent which I saw coming a mile away is shining through. He cracked a 106.5 MPH dinger on Saturday, showing that his power is huge enough to overcome a low launch. His 30.2 ft/sec sprint makes him the 3rd fastest man in baseball behind only Bobby Witt Jr and Byron Buxton (damn, even with all the injuries, and being 31 years old, Buxton is still an elite talent). We also saw the double plus defense with one of the most beastly home run robberies I’ve seen. I was all over the Bleday fade this off-season, writing in his Top 1,000 blurb, “Bleday is a low ceiling player with little speed, a below average BA, and above average homer power at best. I also think there is risk too, because he’s a below average outfielder, and Denzel Clark and Colby Thomas are charging hard to compete for those open OF jobs. He’s actually getting valued pretty highly, so if you can sell high here, I would go for it.” … even with Clarke’s deficiencies, his talent is too big, and his glove is too good to not give him a shot in fantasy. I’m still buying.

Jacob Melton – HOU, OF, 24.7 – Melton was a FYPD favorite of mine in his draft year, and I’ve been relatively high on him ever since, so I’m pumped to see him getting his shot in the bigs. And he most certainly deserved this promotion with a 95.6 MPH EV, 17 degree launch, 21.1% whiff%, and 23.5% Chase% in 17 games at Triple-A. That is special across the board domination, and what made me love him so much in his draft year is that he’s a special athlete at 6’3”, 208 pounds. He went 1 for 3 with a 102.3 MPH single off Taj Bradley and 2 K in his debut. I’m not 100% sure how the playing time is going to shake out, but this is an extremely fantasy friendly profile whose hit tool should be good enough to let those skills shine. He ranked 61st overall on the May 2025 Top 323 Dynasty Prospects Rankings (Patreon).

Xavier Isaac – TBR, 1B, 21.6, AA – The explosion is here for Isaac as he just can’t stop hitting dingers. He cracked his 7th homer in 24 games at Double-A with a shot out to dead center, and he did it with a smooth and explosive lefty swing. That thing really is a thing of beauty, and it’s made to hit dingers. It’s also made to strikeout with a 28.9% K%, but he mitigates that a bit with a 20.6% BB%, and it’s been better of late with a reasonable 25% K% in his last 19 games. So at least it’s headed in the right direction. He’s going to live up to his promise as a power hitting beast, the only question is if it will come with a .250 BA, or like a .220 BA.

Jhostynxon Garcia – BOS, OF, 22.3, AAA – One of my top prospect targets this off-season, Jhostynxon is going bonkos since getting the call to Triple-A, smoking his 4th homer in just 11 games at the level. What made me love him this off-season is that he proved the hit tool would play in the upper minors when he got his shot at the end of last season, even if he didn’t hit particularly well, and now he’s locking that in with a 21.5/10.8 K%/BB% in 44 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. And of course, I also love the legit plus power, athleticism (4 steals), and glove. My only plea, is that Boston doesn’t repeat the mistakes of Baltimore. Look at what happens when you let your great depth rot. You need to trade these guys while the iron is hot. Please don’t put Garcia in blocked prospect hell. Trade this man.

Luis Pena – MIL, SS/3B/SS, 18.4, A – Everyone’s favorite prospect, Luis Pena, was another named target for me this off-season. I’m sorry. I know I’m victory lapping a lot, but as I said it in the Bubic blurb, it’s a career target year for me. Not saying I’m not good in other years 😉 but it’s just wild this season. I named him a target because when I watched him swing, I saw an absolutely explosive bazooka that did not do his 1 homer last year justice, and now that swing is producing even more power, drilling his 5th homer in just 30 games at Single-A. When you combine that real power with elite contact (10.4/9.7 K%/BB%) and speed (22 steals), you have a legitimately elite prospect, and that is exactly how I ranked him in the Updated Top 444 Dynasty Rankings, putting him in the elite tier at 87th overall. Damn is he exciting.

Jonathon Long – CHI, 1B, 23.2, AAA – Okay, last lap for today, I promise, but I was the only man alive to call Jonathon Long a FYPD target. He was a 266th overall draft pick college bat, but when I watched that swing, I just saw a real prospect, writing, ““Long makes for an interesting late round target in deeper leagues … He has a very quick and powerful swing that looks relatively legit to me, and he hits the ball hard. Obviously don’t expect a league winner, but I think he’s a real prospect.” And he’s now far beyond a real prospect after cracking one 453 feet for his 9th homer in 52 games at Triple-A. He’s now slashing .344/.419/.561 with 9 homers, 2 steals, and a 23.6/11.1 K%/BB% in 52 games. He has a 93.3 MPH EV with a solid 26.1% whiff% and 26.9% Chase%. His bat is way beyond “real,” it has the potential to be truly impact on the MLB level. The problem is that he’s a 1B and there isn’t a path to a full time job right now, but if does get his shot, I’m still betting on his bat.

Emmet Sheehan – LAD, RHP, 25.6, AAA – Sheehan is making his return from Tommy John surgery, and in his first start back at Triple-A, he looked like fire, going 3 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 5/0 K/BB vs. a pretty decent lineup that featured JJ Bleday, Colby Thomas, Seth Brown, Darrel Hernaiz, and Max Muncy. The fastball sat 96.9 MPH and dominated with 9 of 17 whiffs. The slider was excellent too with a 73.3 MPH EV against and 33% whiff%. And he mixed in a changeup too which put up a 33% Called Strike+Whiff%. That is basically the formula which made him a near elite prospect a few years ago, and the one that showed so much promise in his 2023 MLB debut. While it’s unclear when he will get another shot in the majors, make sure he’s back on your radar. He’s healthy and looks great.

Joe Boyle – TBR, RHP, 25.8, AAA – I was singing Boyle’s praises in the May Mailbag Podcast (Patreon), and he went out yesterday and threw a gem at Triple-A, going 5 IP with 3 hits, 0 ER, and a 9/1 K/BB. The fastball sat 97.6 MPH and put up a 28% whiff%. The slider and splitter were whiff machines too, leading to a 28% whiff% overall, and of course, the control was on point. That is the big factor in what is making me love him right now. The 11.1% BB% is actually reasonable considering his level of stuff. It’s also a career high by far. Tampa done did it again. You have to trust them, and they very well might turn Joe Boyle into a high K, mid rotation starter.

Taj Bradley – TBR, RHP, 24.1 – 7 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 10/2 K/BB at HOU. The 97 MPH fastball put up a 85.6 MPH EV against and a 24% whiff%. The splitter was dynamite with a 86% whiff% and 62.2 MPH EV against. In fact, all 4 of his pitches induced an insane amount of weak contact with an 82.7 MPH EV overall. That is the definition of turning the other team’s bats into noodles. Like those pool noodles you used to beat the crap out of your of your friends with in the pool when we were kids. Bradley has been sitting in the breakout waiting room for 3 years now, and while we’ve seen stretches of this, this does seem like he’s quietly leveling up. His 3.24 xERA is actually excellent, even if I can’t quite buy it with a 22.0/9.3 K%/BB% and 24.3% whiff%. I can’t take him out of the breakout waiting room quite yet, but we are seeing some signs that just maybe he’s getting close.

Chris Paddack – MIN, RHP, 29.4 – 8 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 10/1 K/BB at SEA. Let’s be honest, is there a more perfect ballpark for Paddack than Seattle with that elite control, fastball heavy approach? I feel like if Paddack was on Seattle, his entire career would be different. He would be like Bryan Woo out there. But we don’t live in that timeline, and he’s on Minnesota, but it’s time to show him some respect as he now has a 3.58 ERA with a 18.7/7.5 K%/BB% in 65.1 IP. Sure that K/BB is rough, but in this latest outing the whiffs were there for him with a 30% whiff% overall. All 4 of his pitches were missing bats. I can’t really say I’m buying here, as the upside is probably more solid than truly standout, but Paddack is clearly stabilizing his career right now, and solid is a lot better than what he’s shown previously. And if he keeps getting outings in Seattle, he would be a true ace 😉

Cal Raleigh – SEA, C, 28.4 – Cal hits dingers. We knew this already. But this season, he’s taking it to another level with his 23rd homer last night. That gives him the league lead in homers. The 24.3% Barrel%, 92.6 MPH EV, 24 degree launch, 27.3% K%, 14.6% BB%, and .408 xwOBA are all career highs by far. He’s so easily the top dynasty catcher in the game right now, and I gave him his due respect in the Updated Top 444 Dynasty Baseball Rankings that dropped last week on the Patreon, ranking him 46th overall. Even that might be too light.

Coby Mayo – BAL, 3B, 23.6 – Called back up and the misery continues. He went 0 for 4 with 2 K yesterday. He had just about the worst attempt at drawing interference on the basepaths I’ve ever seen the day before that. I don’t think any player has made themselves more at home on the Bottom of the Rundown than Cody Mayo … well, that’s not true, Jarred Kelenic exists, and he’s now descended to even lower than the Bottom of the Rundown … Off the Rundown … not even worth discussing anymore. So there’s that at least for Mayo. At least we are still discussing his ineptness …

Brailyn Antunez – MIL, OF, 17.6 – Here is your reminder that the DSL kicks off today, and while I’m excited about so many players in the incoming class, none are getting me as excited as Braylin Antunez. Here was my blurb for him this off-season, “At 6’0”, 194 pounds, Antunez’ build, movements and type of athleticism remind me of an NBA point guard. He has present power, he’s fast, and he has a good feel to hit. There might not be as much projection as some of the other long and lean builds in this class, but there is some Jasson Dominguez vibes in the sense he might be pretty filled out already, but it’s the type of athleticism that he will maintain. Some of these guys could fill out and slow down considerably, while Antunez has already proven he can do both. I like him a lot, and how can you not trust Milwaukee after Chourio and Made.” I then named him a major target in the Target Articles. And now we will see if he can hit a lick and live up to my hype …

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

Posted on May 15, 2023May 19, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/15/23)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 433 MAY DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 324 APRIL PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (4/28/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG! (5/16/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (5/19/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-PREDICTING THE 2024 TOP 50 PROSPECTS RANKS

Christopher Morel CHC, 2B/OF, 23.10 – They say good things come to those who wait, and the Morel owners who waited are now enjoying good things as he jacked his 3rd homer in 21 PA. He has a 1.238 OPS with a 92.4 MPH EV, 1 steal, and most importantly, the whiff% is all the way down to a reasonable 28.9%. He was one of my favorite targets this off-season, and I sure as hell waited while bad vets got the nod over him even while he was destroying spring pitching and destroying Triple-A. Come to think of it, the people who say “good things come to those who wait” are usually the ones screwing you over, but Morel refused to be held down for long, and his fantasy owners are now reaping the benefits. He checked in at #227 on the Updated May Top 433 Dynasty Baseball Rankings that just dropped on the Patreon last week, and that number will keep rising if he keeps performing and locks in playing time.

Jordan Walker STL, 3B/OF, 21.0 – Jordan Walker owners were given immediate gratification with him making the team out of camp and look how that worked out for them. He had mediocre results and then very quickly got sent back to down to Triple-A to work on his launch angle. Let’s check in to see how that launch is looking after a 3 for 5 day yesterday: 28.6% FB%. Not great, and it’s led to a 60 wRC+ in 15 games at Triple-A. He’s still crushing the ball and the plate approach is good, so I wouldn’t be worried, but the Cardinals very publicly announced what they wanted to see from him, and they quite clearly haven’t seen it yet. I’m guessing they will call him back up eventually regardless of his launch, but it would have been easier if he was able to successfully make that adjustment.

Alex Kirilloff MIN, 1B/OF, 25.7 – Kirilloff owners have been waiting for damn near 4 years, and quite frankly, you have the patience of a saint if you kept him on your roster all this time, but now that saintly patience is paying off. He went 2 for 6 yesterday and now has a 1.309 OPS with 2 homers, a 93.1 MPH EV and a 17.9%/21.4% K%/BB% in 28 PA in the majors. He looks healthy and as long as he stays that way, he’ll likely keep raking. I’m buying.

Brandon Pfaadt ARI, RHP, 24.7 – Tom Petty said the waiting is the hardest part, but he obviously never owned Pfaadt in dynasty, because watching him get shelled once he did get the call has surely been the hardest part. The waiting was the easy part in hindsight. But he had his best MLB outing yesterday, going 5 IP with 1 hit, 1 ER, and a 5/3 K/BB vs. SFG. The fastball sat 93.4 MPH and he induced weak contact with an 83.5 MPH EV against. It’s still been super rough overall with an 8.59 ERA in 14.2 IP, and all of his pitches are getting destroyed. I can’t lie, it’s a little concerning as he doesn’t necessarily have stuff, but really nothing you can do but keep waiting.

Zach Neto LAA, SS, 22.2 – Fuck waiting. Sometimes you have to take what you want, and that is why Neto was my 3rd ranked FYPD prospect, because I knew he would be fast tracked to the bigs. But even I didn’t expect it to happen so fast, and considering the rush job LA put on him, he’s been pretty damn good. He went 1 for 3 with a 100.6 MPH double off none other than a 98.9 MPH Emmanuel Clase fastball. He now has a 15.7% K%, 89.3 MPH EV, 7.9% Barrel%, and a .326 xwOBA. He’s setting a very strong foundation, and the best is almost certainly yet to come.

Matt McLain CIN, 2B/SS, 23.8 – Strand and Elly owners will have to keep waiting, because Yippee-ki-yay, it’s McLain time. He’s been out of his mind at Triple-A, slashing .348/.474/.710 with 12 homers, 10 steals, and a 19.7%/16.8% K%/BB% in 38 games, earning every bit of this callup. And I don’t see him going anywhere as long he performs decently well. He’s shown some hit tool issues in the past and he’s not a huge raw power guy, but he’s a pick up in all league sizes if he happens to still be out there on your wire.

Tanner Bibee CLE, RHP, 24.2 – Can I shoehorn this waiting theme into one more player … hmmmmmm … I got nothing. Bibee owners waited the appropriate amount of time and he’s been impressive from the get go. He went 7.2 IP with 2 hits, 1 ER, and 7/2 K/BB vs. LAA. The fastball sat 95.2 MPH and he put up a 29% whiff% overall. Bibee is well on his way to becoming a Top 100 dynasty asset with a 3.22 ERA and 25%/4.5% K%/BB% in 22.1 IP. He currently sits at #165 on the Updated Dynasty Rankings.

Louie Varland MIN, RHP, 25.4 – 6.1 IP, 4 hits, 3 ER, 7/1 K/BB vs. CHC. Varland was my first “full breakout alert” in the Dynasty Rundowns back in early April, and there wasn’t much waiting after that as he quickly got called up to the majors. He hasn’t necessarily exploded with a 4.30 ERA in 23 IP, but the stuff looks great led by a 95.1 MPH fastball, and so does the 28.4%/6.3% K%/BB%. I still think he’s a bit underrated.

James Wood WAS, OF, 20.7 – Wood went 3 for 3 with 2 doubles, a dinger, and a 0/2 K/BB at High-A as he’s now officially destroying the level with 5 homers, 5 steals, and a 137 wRC+ in 31 games. The one quibble is that the K% is all the way up to 29%. Strikeouts were always going to be a part of his game at 6’6”, and he can thrive even with a high K rate, but it does add risk, and it will be interesting to see if he can keep it in check when he gets to Double-A.

Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 22.0 – Jones is the older version of Wood. He went 3 for 5 with 2 doubles, 1 steal, and most importantly, 0 K’s. He’s crushing High-A with 6 homers, 9 steals, and a 143 wRC+, but that 32.2%/5.8% K%/BB% is pretty rough. He just turned 22 yesterday (Happy Birthday, Spence), so he’s a young 22, but he’ll likely need to make legitimate hit tool and plate approach improvements if he wants his power/speed combo to shine in the majors. He was my 5th ranked FYPD prospect, and I still love him, but we can’t completely ignore those K/BB numbers as much as I want to.

Jacob Melton HOU, OF, 22.9 – Melton cracked his 5th homer at High-A and is doing what an advanced college bat is supposed to do in the lower minors. Along with the 5 homers, he has 12 steals with a 26%/19% K%/BB% and a 136 wRC+ in 22 games. We just gotta watch that K%, but the power/speed combo is very legit. He’s exciting.

Gavin Cross KC, OF, 22.2 – Cross is doing whatever the opposite of “doing what an advanced college bat is supposed to do in the lower minors,” as he’s looked terrible at High-A even after going 2 for 4 yesterday. He has a 62 wRC+ with a 32.8%/7.3% K%/BB% in 31 games. The hit tool was the one iffy part of his game coming out of the draft, and that’s playing out right now. We saw him molten hot last year to start his pro career, so I wouldn’t completely overreact to the still small sample, but it’s simply not what you want to see.

Marco Luciano SFG, SS, 21.7 – Lucky Luciano launched his 2nd bomb in 10 games at Double-A, but it came on a 1 for 5 with 3 K day. He now has a 50 wRC+ with a 40% K% at the level, and it just feels like the shine continues to come off that formerly pristine prospect hype. He’s still a good prospect, but I’m not sure he really stands out anymore, although maybe we have to give him some more time to shake the rust off as he’s coming off a stress fracture in his back this off-season.

Kyren Paris LAA, 2B/SS, 21.5 – Paris was a named target for me this off-season, and he’s been a beast all season at Double-A. He went 2 for 3 with his 9th homer on a beautiful swing yesterday. He’s now slashing .239/.390/.487 with 9 homers, 10 steals, and a 31.9%/17.7% K%/BB% in 31 games. The power has taken a major step forward, which is huge to see considering his double plus speed. The hit tool is still a major concern which prevents his hype from truly exploding, but this is an extremely high upside fantasy player who still gets almost no love. I’m still buying despite the risk.

Justyn-Henry Malloy DET, 3B/OF, 23.4 – 1 for 2 with a homer and 3 walks. The hard hitting Malloy is now slashing .323/.455/.526 with 7 homers and a 24.2%/17.6% K%/BB% in 38 games at Triple-A and I can’t imagine it is much longer before he gets the call. I think he’s likely to be a better real life hitter than fantasy, but that doesn’t mean he can’t make a fantasy impact too. He’s a great stash in any league.

Luis Matos SFG, OF, 21.3 – Matos drilled his 3rd homer and he did it with a swing that looks ready made for the majors. Quick and powerful. He’s bouncing back in a big way from a down 2022, slashing .304/.398/.443 with 3 homers, 9 steals, and a 9%/12.8% K%/BB% in 31 games at Double-A. A few more bombs like that and his formerly elite prospect hype could sneak back up on us. He’s a major riser this year regardless.

Ryan Bliss ARI, 2B/SS, 24.5 – Bliss has lived up to his name and then some with his performance at Double-A. He went 3 for 6 with a double, homer, and 2 steals yesterday, and is now slashing a blissful .406/.433/.672 with 6 homers, 11 steals, and a 20.1%/4.5% K%/BB% in 29 games. He’s a particularly small guy at only 5’6”, but check out this swing on yesterday’s dinger, he definitely has some pop in there. The plate approach is mediocre and so is the power, which makes it hard to buy in too hard, but how can you argue with that performance.

Spencer Arrighetti HOU, RHP, 23.5 – 7 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 9/2 K/BB at Double-A. Arrighetti was a target of mine this off-season, and while he struggled to start the year, he now has a 0.53 ERA with a 19/6 K/BB in his last 17 IP. He sure looks like he’s finding his rhythm, and like most Astros pitching prospects for some weird reason, he flies way under the radar.

Jackson Rutledge WAS, RHP, 24.2 – 6 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 5/0 K/BB at Double-A. Rutledge has been performing rock solidly all year with a 2.72 ERA in 39.2 IP, and he has the big stuff to back it up. I still don’t love the 23.7%/9% K%/BB%, he’s been injury prone in his career, and that ERA probably has some good luck involved, but there is a clear path to a rotation spot with Washington’s depleted roster. Not the worst stash if you missed out on the more hyped recently called up pitching prospects.

Cory Lewis MIN, RHP, 22.7 – Lewis was drafted in the 9th round last year, but he’s performing like anything but a 9th rounder after throwing 5.2 perfect innings with 7 K’s. He has a 2.43 ERA with a 33.3%/6.8% K%/BB% in 29.2 IP at Single-A. He throws a low 90’s fastball, but it has plus spin, and at 6’5”, 220 pounds, it gets great extension too. He rounds out of the repertoire with a power breaker he throws in the dirt, a slower one he can throw for strikes, and a lesser used changeup. Definitely an intriguing pop up pitching prospect to at least keep an eye on.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on March 6, 2023March 6, 2023 by Michael Halpern

3/6/23 Spring Dynasty Baseball Rundown

I do these Dynasty Baseball Rundowns all year, mostly on the Patreon, but also a few times a month here on the Brick Wall. Here is the 3/6/23 Spring Dynasty Baseball Rundown:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE & EARLY ACCESS CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2023 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-TOP 500 2023 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKS
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS w/ Strategy & Target Guide
-OBP TOP 500 2023 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-PTS/6+CAT/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 500 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-POSTION BY POSITION TARGET/SLEEPER/UNDERRATED SERIES
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET
-PREDICTING THE 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECTS RANKS

Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 19.5 – The pitching prospect went pitching prospect. Painter felt elbow tenderness following his Wednesday spring debut and we are now awaiting an update. This is like when lion and tiger tamers get attacked by the big cats. You know what you’re getting into when owning a pitching prospect. I grabbed Painter in a Mock First Year Player Draft last off-season for Baseball Prospectus and wrote, “My plan is to sell him when he hits his peak on prospect lists, and before he goes all Forrest Whitley on us at Triple-A.” It brings me no joy to have seen the future. It’s a gift and a curse.

Forrest Whitley HOU, RHP, 25.7 – Speaking of the Ghost of Christmas Future, some of Whitley’s control problems popped back up in his 2nd spring outing, going 2 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, 1 HB (hit batter) and a 1/1 K/BB. He got hit up for 4 hits and 2 ER in his first 2 inning outing. He still has huge stuff, but after getting crushed at Triple-A in 2022, he has a lot to prove to regain his once elite pitching prospect status. Let’s hope this truly isn’t a window into Painter’s future, and we hear today that it is no big deal.

Mike Moustakas COL, 3B/1B, 34.6 – The Rockies went Rockies. They just can’t help themselves. They signed the washed up vet so he can block three solid prospects in Elehuris Montero, Nolan Jones, and Michael Toglia. You know what you’re getting into when you own non elite Rockies prospects. At least they seem to be rolling out the red carpet for Ezequiel Tovar (.912 OPS in 17 PA).

Kodai Senga NYM, RHP, 30.2 – Senga made his much anticipated debut and went 2 IP with 1 hit, 1 ER, and a 2/2 K/BB. The fastball averaged 97 MPH, but it only put up a 10% whiff% on 10 swings, and got hit up with a 93 MPH EV against. He also struggled to find his control in the first inning. The sweeper, cutter, and forkball were all working, and here is an overlay of the fastball/forkball combo which shows how much of a nightmare it will be to face this guy. Overall, it was an impressive first outing which clearly showed off his upside. The stuff is legit.

Riley Greene DET, OF, 22.6 – Greene’s crushing the ball this spring, going 1 for 3 with a 109.5 MPH lineout off Tyler Mahle and a 106.5 MPH double off Pablo Lopez. He also destroyed a 417 foot opposite field homer on Friday. He now has a 1.077 OPS in 13 PA. All signs are pointing towards a big year 2, especially with Detroit bringing the fences in. He’s a buy coming off his decent but unspectacular rookie season.

Jarred Kelenic SEA, OF, 23.9 – Kelenic hit a truly jaw dropping homer to deeeeeeeeepppppp centerfield off an elite pitcher (Devin Williams). I love the dingers where the outfielders barely even move because it’s so obvious. He went 2 for 3 on the day and now has a 1.529 OPS with 4 homers in 17 PA. The 5/0 K/BB still isn’t great, and we’ve seen him destroy Spring the past 2 years, so it’s hard to really buy back in. But at the same time, giving up on a formerly elite prospect at 23 years old seems too harsh. His speed, or lack thereof with a below average 27.2 ft/sec sprint last year is another reason for the rankings drop. A low BA slugger seems to be a reasonable outcome for him, but the upside we hoped for as a prospect is likely wishful thinking.

Jose Miranda MIN, 3B/1B, 24.9 – Miranda went deep twice off a pair of mediocre at best lefties. We know he can mash lefties, it’s vs. righties that I’m slightly concerned about. He’s not a good defensive player, and Minnesota is building up some enviable infield depth throughout their organization. It wouldn’t be surprising if he sits often vs. righties in the not too distant future. It’s why I can’t go higher than 247th overall on him in my 2023 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings. I would tread a little carefully here.

Trevor Rogers MIA, LHP, 25.3 – Rogers looked sharp again in his 2nd spring outing, going 3 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 2/0 K/BB. I already warned about completely writing him off, and his strong start to spring makes me even more comfortable about buying a bounce back. I’m buying low coming off the classic Sophomore slump in 2022.

Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.2 – Dominguez scooped a pitch out of the dirt for his 2nd spring bomb and now has a 1.417 OPS in 14 PA. The level of competition he’s faced is only about Double-A quality, but he only needs to beat up on Double-A quality pitching this year for his stock to soar. You guys already know I’ve been shouting from the rooftops all off-season that he’s getting underrated, and his huge spring just solidifies that stance.

Oswaldo Cabrera NYY, 2B/SS/OF, 24.1 – Cabrera went deep as well, and his came off none other than Charlie Morton on a fastball that caught too much of the plate. It’s his 2nd and he now has a .980 OPS in 18 PA. He’s locking in his super utility role at the very least, and he could easily overtake Hicks for the starting LF job at any point.

Orelvis Martinez TOR, SS, 21.4 – Martinez crushed a 104.6 MPH dinger for his first of the spring, showing off his easy plus power with a beautiful righty swing. While other 20 year olds were beating up on lower minors pitching, he was thrown into the fire at Double-A and drilled 30 homers. The BA was low and the plate approach was rough, but you have to take the advanced level of competition into account. He’s in for a big year his 2nd go around in the upper minors, and you’ll regret selling too low on him this off-season. I’m buying the value dip.

Jacob Melton HOU, OF, 22.7 – Melton continues to quietly produce in his limited opportunities, going 1 for 1 with a walk yesterday and now has a 1.357 OPS with a 3/1 K/BB in 8 PA. He utterly destroyed the Pac 12 in 2021-22, and then he crushed Single-A in his pro debut. Now he’s crushing Spring pitching. He ranked 32nd overall on my 2023 Top 110 FYPD Rankings, and is a great college upside bat to target. The K rates have been on the high side everywhere he’s been, so there is some risk too.

Kris Bryant COL, OF, 31.3 – Bryant is putting any and all injury concerns to rest with a monster spring. He crushed a 109 MPH, 425 foot homer off Drew Smyly for his 3rd of the spring. He has a 1.512 OPS in 14 PA. There is no guarantee he stays healthy all year, which is the where the risk comes in, but if he does, there is a chance he blows up hitting in Coors.

Paul Sewald SEA, Closer Committee, 32.10 – 1 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 1/0 K/BB. Sewald looked healthy out there in his first outing coming off some minor heel and elbow surgeries this off-season. He has at least a share of the closer job, and as the incumbent veteran, I lean towards him having the lion’s share of the job.

Nick Lodolo CIN, LHP, 25.2 – Lodolo looked sharp in his 2nd outing, going 3 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 4/1 K/BB. He was only going about 75% with his velocity down 2.2 MPH to 92.2 MPH, but against Oakland’s embarrassing roster, 75% is all you need.

Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 22.0 – 1 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 1/0 K/BB. Bradley’s outing was on Saturday, but it was too impressive not to mention especially with so many prospect lists starting to fade him. The fastball sat 97.1 MPH, and here is a look at a truly devastating changeup (which Statcast classifies as a sinker). The cutter dominated too. The stuff is filthy and he combines that with plus control. If he’s not an elite pitching prospect, he’s near elite, and I’m not sure why his hype tailed off this off-season. Don’t make that same mistake yourself.

Samad Taylor KCR, 2B/OF, 24.9 – Taylor got ahold of his first homer, and is having a nice spring with a 1.286 OPS and 2 steals in 14 PA. It’s nice to see coming off a terrible AFL performance (.555 OPS in 76 PA). He has a fantasy friendly profile and he can play all over the field. I don’t think he’s first up to get an opportunity in KC, but he will likely get his shot at some point during the season due to injury or underperformance, and he’s well worth a pick up at that point. He’s the type you keep an eye on.

Dominic Smith WAS, 1B, 27.9 – Smith is starting to find his rhythm, ripping his first spring homer on Saturday, and going 2 for 2 with a double and a walk yesterday. He now has a 1.136 OPS with a 1/2 K/BB in 14 PA. He definitely looks a little sleeker and is better shape out there to me. The upside might not be huge in a terrible lineup and with a line drive approach, but it certainly seems a bounce back is coming from his terrible 2021-2022. And even in 2021-22 he underperformed his underlying numbers, so a luck bounce back is due is as well.

Jo Adell LAA, OF, 24.0 – 0 for 3 with 2 K’s and is 0 for 11 with 8 K’s in his last 4 games as he sinks further and further into the abyss …

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)