Ethan Conrad – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on January 6, 2026 by Michael Halpern

Top 161 2026 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon)

The day has arrived for the first BIG list drop of 2026! It’s one of my favorite days of the year where I unleash my Top 161 2026 FYPD Ranks, followed up by a Target & Strategy Guide that goes over who I’m targeting exactly, and what my general mindset and strategy would be surrounding the draft. It’s always fun to evaluate a new crop of players, and it’s even more fun to follow what they turn into in 2026. Sometimes your 1st round pick is a bust, but it’s made up by your 3rd round pick who is all of a sudden an elite prospect. That is the way of the first year player. We don’t know until they get out there, but we’ll do our darndest to predict which way it’s going to go. Top 12 free here on the Brick Wall! Here is the Top 161 2026 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 132 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2026 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS (Top 200 coming soon)
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–OFF-SEASON CONTENT: Dynasty Team Reports (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy of the Day), Deep Positional Rankings, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Position by Position Targets, 2026 & Prime/Peak Projections, Top 1,000+ Dynasty Rankings, Top 500+ Prospects Rankings, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks + much more

1) Tatsuya Imai – HOU, RHP, 27.11 – Let’s start with the elephant in the room, which is that Imai didn’t sign as big of a contract as expected (3 years, $54-$63 million with 2 opt outs), but it’s not moving me off him as the #1 pick in FYPD’s. For one, I love the landing spot. Houston puts their pitchers in position to succeed and I trust them with Imai’s transition. I also don’t think the deal is that bad at all. He’s very likely to make over 20 million a year if he doesn’t opt out, and those opts outs have really huge upside on them. If he dominates, he can land an absolutely huge deal. Don’t underrate how valuable those opt outs are. I still think this deal shows that Imai is expected to be a very good pitcher, and everything else in his profile says we should expect him to be a very good pitcher too. He dominated the 2nd best baseball league in the world, he’s smack dab in the middle of his prime, he’s coming over right as he’s peaking, he has the stuff/pitch mix to back it all up, and he has both a high floor and a high ceiling. If this were a better First Year Player Draft Class, or if this was like last year’s class, he probably wouldn’t be 1st overall (I would 100% have Roch Cholowsky ranked over him from the 2026 draft class, for instance), but in this year’s class, I don’t even really think it’s that tough of a call. He put up a 1.92 ERA with a 27.8/7.0 K%/BB% in 163.2 IP in the NPB in 2025. For reference, Yamamoto put up a 1.21 ERA with a 26.6/4.4 K%/BB% in 164 IP the year before he came over, and then his first year in the majors he had a 3.00 ERA and 28.5/6.0 K%/BB% in 90 IP, meaning, there is no guarantee Imai’s strikeout rates are going to go down in the majors. They might go up, as Imai mentioned how contact oriented the hitters in Japan are, and he’s looking forward to the challenge of facing guys who actually swing for the fences. He completely owns the mound when he’s out there with a calm, loose, athletic, and easy righty delivery that he uses to fire a mid 90’s fastball, a plus “reverse” slider, and a plus splitter/changeup (he throws both). His stuff misses bats, induces weak contact, and keeps the ball in the park (48.3% GB%). His control and strikeout rates have been improving over the last 5 years, so like I mentioned, he’s coming over at the perfect time when he’s at his peak. We have seen more than enough aces come over from the NPB and either remain an ace in MLB (Yamamoto, Yu Darvish-who also saw his K rates rise in MLB), or at the least be an impact fantasy starter (Imanaga, Senga), that the transition doesn’t seem super risky. There is risk of course with a new baseball, country, etc … but everyone in First Year Player Drafts have risk, and Imai almost definitely has the least risk of anybody. He’s only 5’11”, but Yamamoto is 5’10”, so I don’t really care too much about that either. I don’t see how you could take Doyle or Anderson over him just evaluating the top pitchers on the board, and while you can argue for a high school bat, Imai’s ceiling as a #2 starter seems plenty high enough to not feel too tempted by the bats. He’s my top dog and I’m not too torn about it. – 2026 Projection: 12/3.57/1.21/165 in 165 IP

2) Eli Willits – WSH, SS, 18.4 – Willits is the default #1 pick in 2026 First Year Player Drafts (non Imai division, who shouldn’t even be in FYPD’s, and isn’t in FYPD’s in most of my leagues). That is so unexciting to say for the first pick, but it’s exactly what Washington did in the real MLB Draft too, taking Willits 1st overall. They looked out into the rest of this draft class and just saw warts all the over place, saying, let’s just take the safest guy who checks the most boxes. Willits has one of the best hit tools in the class, he has a good SS glove, he has baseball bloodlines (you might remember Reggie Willits), he’s got speed, he’s got good size (6’1”), and he’s one of the youngest players in the class. He then cemented that safe profile in his pro debut, slashing .300/.397/.360 with 0 homers, 2 steals, and a 20.7/12.1 K%/BB% in 15 games as a 17 year old at Single-A. He had no major lift or pull issues with a 38.9% GB% and 44.7% Pull%, so when the power ticks up naturally, which his size and age say it should, the homers should come. He’s not the pick that is really going to get the juices flowing when you select him, but he’s the safe play. You can take a pitcher (Doyle/Anderson/Hernandez), but you only have to look to Roki last year to see the risk there. You can take Holliday, but we just saw that hit tool risk. You can go JoJo or Steele, but there is risk in not having seen them in pro ball. You can take Kilby, which that idea is growing on me, but it seems way too cute to take the 29th overall pick 1st overall. You can take Ethan Conrad, but … okay, no buts there, maybe you should take him 😉 … but you get the point. Willits simply checks off the most boxes, even if he doesn’t currently have that electric upside we want with the top pick. I wouldn’t blame you at all for choosing a more risky path, but Willits is my top dog, not including the Japanese veterans. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 93/18/72/.283/.358/.438/29

3) Liam Doyle – STL, LHP, 21.10 – Having an elite fastball is so important if you want to truly break into to the upper echelon of MLB pitchers. I wrote about it in the Blue Jays Team Report when I was giving my reasoning for going Burns over Yesavage (I still love Yesevage) as the #1 pitching prospect in baseball, and it’s my reasoning for giving Doyle the very slight edge over Kade Anderson in FYPD Rankings. Doyle has the type of overpowering, high strikeout, mid to upper 90’s, elite movement profile fastball that has the potential to simply bulldoze through the minors in the blink of an eye, a la Chase Burns. He’s not as good as Chase Burns, but he’s the closest thing this draft has to him. The secondaries aren’t as impressive as the fastball, which is where the edge goes to Anderson (and Anderson has an excellent fastball too despite the mediocre velocity), but I think they get undersold. The splitter dominated college hitters with elite whiff rates, the slider has above average potential with bat missing ability, and he’s working on a cutter too. His 42.6% K% led all of D1, and the 8.3 BB% shows the control isn’t in the true danger zone. I also think it says something that the Cardinals drafted him 5th overall. This isn’t the usual Cardinals type of pitcher. They lean floor over upside (although that seems to be changing of late). But quite clearly they fell in love with Doyle’s upside, which I’m also falling in love with. Kade Anderson is the safer choice and he landed in the perfect situation in Seattle, but I lean pure explosion, and Doyle has more of that explosion than Anderson has right now. St. Louis also has a pitcher’s park. Doyle is my top pitcher in FYPD’s, non Imai division, and it sure seems like he’s going to debut in 2026. – 2026 Projection: 4/3.82/1.27/75 in 70 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.33/1.07/209 in 178 IP

4) Kade Anderson – SEA, LHP, 21.10 – Anderson couldn’t have asked for a better landing spot than Seattle (3rd overall). Even after falling in love with Doyle’s explosiveness and pure nastiness, pitching in Seattle almost gives Anderson that extra upside nudge to match Doyle’s. And even if Anderson doesn’t have the pure stuff of Doyle, he beats Doyle on pitchability. He’s a 6’2”, 175 pound lefty with an above average to plus 4 pitch mix. The 93 MPH fastball misses tons of bats with a great movement profile, the plus slider is his main breaker, but he throws a plus curve too, and the changeup is a plus weapon vs. righties. He knows how to pitch, he throws the ball over the plate, and there is definitely some projection left on his frame, meaning there is a chance the fastball can sit mid 90’s at peak. It all led to a 3.18 ERA with a 37.4/7.3 K%/BB% in 119 IP in the SEC. It does seem more #2/3 than true top of the rotation at the moment, but again, Seattle give him a bump, and the fastball could tick up in the future. He’s the safer choice over Doyle, and it’s not like he doesn’t have upside himself. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 13/3.45/1.17/190 in 180 IP

5) Ethan Conrad – CHC, OF, 21.9 – If there is one guy in this FYPD class that really makes me tingle. The guy who I would hate to leave the draft without. The guy I want to say is my guy, it’s Ethan Conrad (Kilby is a close 2nd). He can so easily become the best fantasy player in this draft, and that isn’t even close to a stretch. He’s 6’3”, 220 pounds, and I’m in love with his lefty swing. It’s loose, athletic, upright, and then he absolutely unfurls on the baseball like a big cat striking it’s prey. He was in the midst of a junior year power explosion with 7 homers in 21 games in the ACC before hurting shoulder diving for a ball which required surgery to repair. But you know I’ve been loving the shoulder surgery discount with so many hitters coming back completely fine, and obviously the Cubs thought the same thing stealing him at 17th overall in the Draft. Not only is the power no joke, but he’s fast and he loves to run with 77 steals in 88 attempts in 200 amateur games. He’s also hit extremely well everywhere he’s been since his freshman year. He had a .813 OPS in 200 PA his freshman year in the MAAC, he topped that his sophomore year in the MAC with a 1.171 OPS in 259 PA, he then went to the Cape and put up a .920 OPS in 120 PA, and then he transferred into the ACC and dropped a 1.238 OPS in 21 games. He’s literally never not hit, and his contact rates have always been pretty damn good too with a 14.4% K% this year, a 15% K% in the Cape and a 12.4% K% his sophomore year in the MAAC. He’s had some chase issues throughout this career, he’s yet to really face super tough competition as he was just getting into the meat of his ACC schedule before getting hurt, and I guess there is some risk coming off the shoulder surgery, but all of that just looks like it opens up a giant buying opportunity to me. Conrad is the guy I’m really targeting in this draft. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 83/24/88/.262/.324/.461/21

6) JoJo Parker – TOR, SS, 19.8 – Selected 8th overall in the 2025 MLB Draft, Parker has the type of lefty swing that is easy to dream on. It’s easy, smooth, fast, and powerful from a strong 6’2”, 195 pound frame. It’s one of those swings that screams plus hit/power combo, and he has the production to match with excellent contact rates, plate skills, and exit velocity numbers. He’s not known as the fastest guy, but he put up some impressive run times, and he could be the type to run more than we think. In short, he’s the Walker Jenkins of this draft class. Jenkins was the Kyle Tucker of his draft class. It’s literally the Russian Nesting Dolls of FYPD prospects with each of them one inch shorter than the last one. Perfect fits. Hit, power, size, and sneaky athleticism. I get it if he’s your top dog in First Year Player Drafts, and if he debuted and hit well, he might have been mine, but he’s still a total mystery vs. pro pitching as he’s yet to debut. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 82/24/86/.274/.345/.462/16

7) Dax Kilby – NYY, SS, 19.5 – If you know me at all, you know I’m the OG pro debut breakout hype beast, going back to 2015/16, and nobody had a pro debut breakout like Kilby had. He slashed .353/.457/.441 with 0 homers, 16 steals, and a 13.6/16.0 K%/BB% in 18 games at Single-A as an 18 year old. Sure he didn’t hit a homer, but when it comes with a 91.9 MPH EV and 45.6% Hard Hit%, I’m not that concerned about it. The only flaw of the debut was the 1 degree launch, but this type of profile can still thrive with a low launch, and if he can raise that launch, watch out. I was already a big fan before the debut, ranking him highly in my original FYPD Rankings, writing, “Selected 39th overall in the 2025 MLB Draft, Kilby is a projectable 6’2” with a vicious and smooth lefty swing that has power potential written all over it if he can put on good weight. He’s currently more of a line drive, hit tool focused prospect with good speed, so either the power can tick up naturally to enhance that profile, or he can make an approach change to really tap into that hopeful raw power gain in the future. I love the swing, projection, hit tool and athleticism, which is a lot to like. If you can’t draft high enough to grab one of the top high school bats with big present power, you might as well take your shot on a guy who could develop that power down the line.” … obviously his awesome debut, where he showed more raw power than even I was expecting, is going to push his price way up, but I think he’s worth that high price. I’m all in. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 93/20/79/.278/.357/.445/30

8) Munetaka Murakami – CHW, 3B/1B, 26.2 – Murakami doesn’t just have red flags, he’s carrying around and waving the biggest red flag we’ve ever seen. It would be crazy to just ignore it or even downplay it any way. In 2025, he put up a 28.6% K% in 56 games. In 2024 he put up a 29.5% K% with a .244 BA in 143 games. In 2023 he put up a 28.1% K% with a .256 BA in 140 games. This isn’t just a blip. To say the hit tool is a risk would be an understatement, and it’s why it’s not surprising that he only landed a 2 year, $34 million deal with the White Sox. That really tells you everything you need to know about how high risk he is, but at the same time, Chicago didn’t hand him $34 million for nothing. He got that money for his possibly elite power. He hit 22 homers in just 56 games last year. He has a 56 homer season under his belt in 2022. The bat speed and Hard Hit are truly elite at 6’2”, 213 pounds. His BA can be in the low .200’s and still be an impact fantasy bat with that kind of power. And when you compare him to the FYPD kids, it’s not like all of those guys don’t have plenty of risk themselves. Chicago is the perfect landing spot for him because he is going to get full runway and leash to let it fly and see what happens. He’s not good on defense, but again, in Chicago, it really doesn’t matter for us because they are going to play him at 1B/DH until/unless the wheels completely fall off. And even then, they probably still throw him out there. If you prefer the win now bat, I can see jumping Murakami over Parker and Kilby, but the extreme hit tool concerns would have me hesitant to take him much higher than that. – 2026 Projection: 69/27/81/.222/.320/.460/6

9) Steele Hall – CIN, SS, 18.8 – Selected 9th overall in the 2025 MLB Draft, Hall’s double plus speed and athleticism is his calling card, giving him enticing fantasy upside just based on that, and there is a chance his power potential is being considerably underrated. He’s one of the youngest players in the draft, and while he’s not a huge guy at 5’11”, his righty swing is super fast, explosive, and he knows how to lift it. His power already took a big jump last off-season with tacked on muscle, and if he was able to do it once, who says he can’t keep on tacking on mass. The biggest issue is that he struggles vs. breaking balls, and generally when you go after these type of speed prospects, you want their hit tool to be a plus, rather than a risk. The upside is super fun, especially hitting in Cincinnati, and his young age gives some added legroom for both the power and breaking ball struggles. He has a chance to be a fantasy beast. – ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 86/18/74/.251/.321/.427/37

10) Ethan Holliday – COL, SS, 19.1 – The full 5 alarm, hide the women and children, blood in the streets panic mode is in full swing, and there is no putting that genie back in the bottle after Holliday put up a 39.3% K% in his 18 game pro debut at Single-A, but let me try to talk you off the ledge. We only have to look at Charlie Condon’s horrific pro debut as the example to follow for Holliday. Condon had more of a track record to fall back on, but Holliday was only 18 years old, just getting his feet wet. Like Condon, of course it removes Holliday completely from the 1st overall conversation, but I don’t think it should remove him from the Top 10 range. Even with the extreme swing and miss, he still hit the ball very hard, showing off his prodigious power potential at 6’4”, 210 pounds, and he still put up an above average 108 wRC+. It wasn’t a complete disaster. We already knew he had hit tool risk coming out of the draft, so it was stupid in my opinion for Colorado to debut him this year anyway. What did they think was going to happen? Why not give the kid an off-season to really prepare, instead of throwing him into the fire and likely getting in his head due to the struggles. We know Colorado is awful at development, but Ethan has both his father, Matt, and brother, Jackson, to fall back on and help with both the mental and physical part of the game. You know I’m the OG of putting a ton of weight on pro debuts, so I 100% hit that panic meter immediately, but there has to be a limit to the panic when the talent is still so huge, and Holliday’s talent is huge. My bet is on a much better K% in 2026. I’m going to do with him exactly what I did with Condon, which is drop him to the Top 10 range. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 84/27/88/.261/.342/.476/12

11) Luis Hernandez – SFG, SS, 17.4 – Hernandez is the consensus top player in the 2026 international class, and from everything I’ve read and watched, it seems to me that Leo De Vries is the closest “prototype” to the type of #1 overall prospect he is. He’s not getting the level of hype that Leo got, so I’m not saying he’s as good as Leo, but it’s a similar evaluation where Hernandez is just so far out ahead skills wise for his age. Scouts said Leo wouldn’t have embarrassed himself if he played in the majors at 17, and while who knows if that is true, we saw what he’s been able to do at 17-18 years old in the minors, so I don’t doubt it. Hernandez gives that same vibe with him already dominating a grown man’s league in the Venezuelan Major League, hitting .346. That video I linked shows the smooth swing and feel to hit against that advanced competition. Like Leo, Hernandez doesn’t necessarily jump off the screen in a pure size/tools sense at 5’10”, 180 pounds (Leo is 6’1”, so again, he’s not as good as Leo), but that doesn’t mean the exciting tools aren’t in here. You can see that smooth athleticism and the tight build that is only going to get stronger and stronger. The swing is fast and athletic and it’s geared for both contact and power with the ability to lift and pull. He’s not a burner, but he’s a good athlete who should steal plenty of bags. With his success against older competition already, he feels as safe as an international prospect gets, and while the upside may not be obviously off the charts, Jesus Made’s and Josuar Gonzalez’ builds aren’t far off. There is still a lot of risk with international prospects, but it feels like “we” are getting better and better at evaluating them before they turn pro. The guys at the very tippy top of the class generally become really, really good prospects, so I don’t want to be too risk averse. Hernandez deserves to be valued right with the best high school bats in the MLB Draft class, but the thing keeping him towards the back of that area is that he will play in SF. That ballpark just subdues everyone offensively, and it is slightly preventing me from going even higher than this. – ETA: 2030 Prime Projection: 88/22/76/.272/.341/.446/20

12) Seth Hernandez – PIT, RHP, 19.9 – Selected 6th overall in the 2025 MLB Draft, Hernandez has the highest pure upside of any arm in the class. He’s a great athlete with prototypical size at 6’4”, 195 pounds, and the stuff is filthy with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and a double plus changeup. The breakers (slider, curve) aren’t quite as impressive, and can be inconsistent, but they definitely have the potential to get to plus at peak. And his control/command is really strong for a high school starter with this level of stuff, generally throwing all of his pitches around the plate. I would be lying if I didn’t mention that I see at least some shades of Brock Porter, who had a very similar profile as a 19 year old starter with upper 90’s heat, an elite change, and inconsistent breakers. That also underscores how risky high school righties have traditionally been in the draft. Noble Meyer and Dylan Lesko can attest to that. Even Jackson Jobe and Andrew Painter, who have risen to elite prospect status, needed Tommy John and have had their struggles of late. But Hunter Greene exists too. There is an argument to let someone else draft Hernandez, and then buy low on him after he gets Tommy John surgery. But the top of the rotation upside is undeniable, and that upside is worth the risk. If you like going after high school arms more than I do in the 1st round of FYPD’s, I can see ranking him higher than this, but that just isn’t how I play the game really. Hernandez would have to fall for me to get him anywhere. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 14/3.45/1.13/200 in 180 IP

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

Posted on October 27, 2025November 6, 2025 by Michael Halpern

Chicago Cubs 2026 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Off-season content is already in full swing on the Brick Wall! Like during the regular season, I will be posting a few articles a month for free here on Imaginary Brick Wall with the vast majority of the content over on the Patreon. We are deep into Dynasty Team Report season, while the first Sneak Peek of the 2026 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings hit last week. Deep Positional Rankings are also right around the corner. But first, here is the Chicago Cubs 2026 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 25 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2026 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
–END OF SEASON 2025 TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
–END OF SEASON 2025 TOP 325 PROSPECTS RANKS
-TOP 60 2026 FYPD RANKS w/ Analysis & Prime Projections for every player
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: END OF SEASON MAILBAG!
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–OFF-SEASON CONTENT: Dynasty Team Reports (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy of the Day), Deep Positional Rankings, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Position by Position Targets, 2026 & Prime/Peak Projections, Top 1,000+ Dynasty Rankings, Top 500+ Prospects Rankings, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks + much more

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Atlanta Braves—Arizona Diamondbacks—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Miami Marlins—New York Yankees (free)—Pittsburgh Pirates (free)—Texas Rangers

Hitters

Pete Crow-Armstrong – CHC, OF, 24.0 – Can we just enjoy the season Pete Crow had before we start bashing him for this 2nd half and Chase. I feel like the angry 1950’s dad at the dinner table yelling at his kids while the family is crumbling around him. You’re going to sit there and be quiet, enjoy this food, and thank your mother for her hard work. Don’t make me bust out the whooping stick. Pete Crow was almost definitely my biggest hit of 2025 (I’ve been the high guy since he was drafted), ranking him 64th overall, and writing in part, “Pete Crow Armstrong’s power has been underrated from the time he was drafted. And in 2024, especially the 2nd half of 2024, we started to see the first buds of a breakout that could absolutely explode in 2025. For starters, he put up a 88.9/94.0 MPH AVG/FB EV on the season, which shows that power potential I saw 4 years ago wasn’t a mirage. And when it comes with a 17.2 degree launch, an elite 30.0 ft/sec sprint speed, and elite CF defense, you have the makings of an extremely exciting fantasy player. Put some respect on this man’s name. His name is Pete Crow Armstrong, not Pete Crow Armweak.” … and then the true explosion came in 2025 with him upping his Hard Hit% 4.8 points to 41.6%, upping his Max EV 6 MPH to 113.2 MPH, upping his Barrel% 5.6 points to 13%, and upping his bat speed 2.1 MPH to 72.7 MPH. It resulted in 31 homers, and he combines the power explosion with elite speed (29.5 ft/sec sprint with 35 steals) and elite CF defense. This was the insanely fun fantasy player I foresaw, but of course things can never be easy, and Pete Crow had go out and end the season with a massive slump. He put up a .525 OPS in his final 50 games. He definitely got unlucky with a not too bad 25.9% K% and a .222 BABIP, but it for sure more than hints at the risk still present in this profile. And that risk is the way too high 41.7% Chase%. High chase adds a lot of volatility, and that isn’t just high chase, that is full danger zone high chase. If you want to be scared off, that is fair, and I completely get it, but if you’ve read my work at all over the years, you know I’m not running scared. His glove is going to keep him on the field, and even with a low BA, that power/speed combo is going to make a major impact. I’m also betting on the plate approach improving as he matures. Pete Crow has already paid off majorly if you’ve taken my advice over his career, and I’ll be happy to keep buying if people are scared off by the 2nd half. He ranked 21st overall on A Top 25 Sneak Peek of the 2026 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). – 2026 Projection: 86/28/88/.252/.308/.469/33

Matt Shaw – CHC, 3B, 24.5 – Matt Shaw unveils new batting stances like it’s a fashion show. I can’t wait to see what batting stance he’s going to unveil in the next spring collection. The anticipation is killing me. One week it’s your standard upright little man leg kick (this was my favorite one). The next week it’s your dark and brooding, super closed, hunched over, cartoonish leg kick. The next week it’s an open, bending over backwards, bat on his shoulder stance. And then the next week it’s a loose, bat waggling, toe tap swing. I’m not even joking at all. These are all the batting stances Shaw has used over the last 1-2 years, and I might have even missed some versions. It looks different every time you watch him. It’s almost impressive he can change stances this much on the fly and not completely crumble. I think it’s a good sign that he can make the adjustments necessary in the never ending cat and mouse game that is MLB baseball, and those adjustments paid off majorly in his rookie year. After struggling in the first half with a .556 OPS in 63 games, he turned it around post break, slashing .258/.317/.522 with 11 homers, 6 steals and a 23.9/8.3 K%/BB% in his final 63 games of the season. Even with the lackluster season overall (93 wRC+), he did a lot of things well. He can lift and pull with a 13.4 degree launch and 21.8% Air Pull%, he’s got plus speed with a 29 ft/sec sprint, he gets the bat on the ball with a 22.5% whiff%, he can get on base with a 8.7% BB%, and he played a solid 3B. He really only did one thing poorly, but that one thing is a big one, and it’s hit the ball hard. The 84.9 MPH EV and 29.4% Hard Hit% were super weak. They were better in the 2nd half (86.4 MPH EV and 32.4% Hard Hit%), but they still weren’t great, and they were bad in September again. The good news is that his profile can work without huge hard hit numbers (contact, speed, lift and pull), and looking at his minor league career, those numbers are almost certainly going to come way up as he gets more comfortable. He put up a 44.3% Hard Hit% in 24 games at Triple-A in 2025 and an 89.3 MPH EV at AAA in 2024. I’m betting on Shaw hitting the ball much harder in 2026, and if he does, he’s going to be an easy 20/20 guy with a solid BA. Shaw was my guy in the 2023 Draft like PCA was my guy in the 2020 Draft, and just like with PCA, I’m going to stay high through the ups and downs. – 2026 Projection: 78/19/69/.252/.331/.438/23 Prime Projection: 88/23/81/.266/.347/.459/26

Pitchers

Cade Horton – CHC, RHP, 24.7 – Horton was a pretty damn hyped pitching prospect who had an awesome rookie season with a 2.67 ERA in 118 IP, and nobody really seems to care. It’s because we are all looking at the same shit, and that shit is a weak 20.4/6.9 K%/BB% and weak ERA estimators (3.93 xERA, 4.27 xFIP, 4.26 SIERA), but you don’t have to dig all that much deeper to see there are things to be extremely excited about. For one, he was truly lights out post all star break with a 1.03 ERA in 61.1 IP, and the 23.5/6.5 K%/BB% over that time looks much prettier and closer to what we want to see. There is also clearly more strikeout upside in here with 2 whiff machine secondaries in his sweeper (36.8% whiff%) and changeup (47.8% whiff%). Displaying plus control with 2 bat missing secondaries and big velocity (95.7 MPH fastball) is a great foundation to build. The fastball probably got lucky with a .312 wOBA vs. .378 xwOBA, but we know the best pitchers tinker like crazy. He can throw the fastball less in favor of the secondaries, he can go to his lesser used sinker more, he can tinker with the 4-seamer pitch shape, etc … This is just the start to his career, and while I agree the mediocre K/BB can’t shoot him up into the young top of the rotation tier already, he’s in the tier right under that. – 2026 Projection: 11/3.64/1.19/139 in 150 IP

Shota Imanaga – CHC, LHP, 32.7 – Last year in these here Dynasty Team Reports I called Shota Imanaga my biggest miss of 2024, as I evaluated him as more of a solid mid rotation type than a true top of the rotation starter, and after his 2025 season, I feel a lot better about my original evaluation. He put up a 3.73 ERA, 4.21 xERA, and a 20.6/4.6 K%/BB% in 144.2 IP. I questioned how good the low 90’s fastball was going to be vs. MLB hitters, and it got hit up this year with a negative 10 Run Value and .396 xwOBA. The splitter was still really good, but not quite as dominant as 2024. I’m not trying to take back my walk of shame, as you still got the 2024 season if you drafted him, and I was still too low on him even if this is his true talent level. The 0.99 WHIP is elite, the walk rates are elite, and the 2nd half 24.3% K% is right in line with what he did in 2024 (25.1%). He’s not as good as he was in 2024 and he’s not as bad as he was in 2025, and even in 2025, he wasn’t bad at all. He’s a veteran starter with both a safe floor and upside. I would be happy to buy if his price dips too low. – 2026 Projection: 12/3.47/1.06/153 in 165 IP

Bullpen

Daniel Palencia – CHC, Closer, 26.2 – The Cubs could so easily sign a vet to take this job away from Palencia. I don’t think buying expensive bullpen pieces would be their optimal allocation of funds, that would be Kyle Tucker and the rotation, but if they whiff there, and if they have money burning a hole in their pockets, they could definitely pivot to buying an established closer. Palencia is good enough to take on that risk, but he wasn’t so good that I would be willing to pay huge for him before I was certain he was retaining the role. He broke out with a 2.91 ERA and 28.4/7.4 K%/BB% in 52.2 IP, securing the closer job in late May and not looking back with 22 saves. The heavily used 99.6 MPH fastball put up a +5 Run Value and the plus slider put up a 39.4% whiff%. He also has a good splitter that he rarely goes to. A big part of the breakout was due to improved control, and related to that, he doesn’t have a long track record of success even in the minors. Relievers pop up like this all the time, but along with risk he loses the job this off-season, there is still some regression risk here too. And he missed time with a shoulder strain towards the end of the season, which he returned from, but it is another risk to take into account. I like him a lot, but some caution is warranted until we see more of the off-season play out. – 2026 Projection: 4/3.46/1.19/69/28 saves in 60 IP

Chicago Cubs 2026 Top 10 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Prospects Rankings

1) Owen Caissie – CHC, OF, 23.9 – The toughest part of Caissie’s evaluation is figuring out his path to playing time. It doesn’t seem like Chicago is going to leave a spot open for him in 2026, but with Happ and Suzuki free agents after the 2026 season, I don’t see why he wouldn’t get a real shot in 2027 and beyond. Chicago has the money to keep signing vets to block him, and he’ll have competition in house too to win a long term job, so nothing is guaranteed. And the thing that can really stop him from being given that full time job with a long leash is that the hit tool is a major concern. It immediately got exposed in the majors with a 40.7% K% and 39.7% whiff% in 27 PA, and while it was in a super small sample and with sporadic playing time, it’s still not exactly great to see. His strikeout rates have been very high in the minors too with K rates in the high 20’s his entire career. We’ve seen hit tool risk sluggers like him need a long leash to reach their ultimate power hitting beast destiny, and not every team is will to give them that long leash. His power upside is worth that risk though with 22 homers, a 92.1 MPH EV, and a 53.4% Hard Hit% in 99 games at Triple-A. The 74.8 MPH swing was great to see in his debut. The dude is going to mash if given the chance, the only question is when he’s going to get that chance, and how long of a hit tool adjustment period there is going to be. – 2026 Projection: 26/10/33/.229/.304/.430/3 Prime Projection: 79/28/89/.248/.335/.473/7

2) Ethan Conrad – CHC, OF, 21.9 – If there is one guy in this FYPD class that really makes me tingle. The guy who I would hate to leave the draft without. The guy I want to say is my guy, it’s Ethan Conrad (Kilby is a close 2nd). He can so easily become the best fantasy player in this draft, and that isn’t even close to a stretch. He’s 6’3”, 220 pounds, and I’m in love with his lefty swing. It’s loose, athletic, upright, and then he absolutely unfurls on the baseball like a big cat striking it’s prey. He was in the midst of a junior year power explosion with 7 homers in 21 games in the ACC before hurting shoulder diving for a ball which required surgery to repair. But you know I’ve been loving the shoulder surgery discount with so many hitters coming back completely fine, and obviously the Cubs thought the same thing stealing him at 17th overall in the Draft. Not only is the power no joke, but he’s fast and he loves to run with 77 steals in 88 attempts in 200 amateur games. He’s also hit extremely well everywhere he’s been since his freshman year. He had a .813 OPS in 200 PA his freshman year in the MAAC, he topped that his sophomore year in the MAC with a 1.171 OPS in 259 PA, he then went to the Cape and put up a .920 OPS in 120 PA, and then he transferred into the ACC and dropped a 1.238 OPS in 21 games. He’s literally never not hit, and his contact rates have always been pretty damn good too with a 14.4% K% this year, a 15% K% in the Cape and a 12.4% K% his sophomore year in the MAAC. He’s had some chase issues throughout this career, he’s yet to really face super tough competition as he was just getting into the meat of his ACC schedule before getting hurt, and I guess there is some risk coming off the shoulder surgery, but all of that just looks like it opens up a giant buying opportunity to me. Conrad is the guy I’m really targeting in this draft. He ranked 4th overall in the End of Season Top 60 2026 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon). – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 83/24/88/.262/.324/.461/21

3) Jaxon Wiggins – CHC, RHP, 24.6 – A pitching prospect like Wiggins is why you don’t have to pay up for the already extremely expensive, universally highly ranked elite pitching prospects, and also why you don’t have to dip into the hyped teenage lottery ticket bucket of pitching prospects. Every year there are quite a few truly beastly, huge stuff, huge upside, huge K rate pitching prospects who are in the upper minors and who don’t get all that much hype where you are going to have to pay up majorly for them in an off-season prospect draft. And if a few of them go earlier than you think, there are plenty more to choose from. I talked about this “flaw” in prospect rankings in an earlier team report, and Wiggins highlights this perfectly. He’s 6’6” with a double plus upper 90’s fastball that has good shape and misses a ton of bats. He combines the heat with a plus, bat missing slider, and the lesser used changeup is a really good pitch too when he goes to it. It resulted in a 2.19 ERA with a 31.0/11.5 K%/BB% in 78 IP at mostly Double-A. Sure there is risk, which we will get to, but every pitching prospect has risk. I would much rather take the inherent risk of a pitching prospect later in the draft than passing up elite hitting prospects for an already hyped to death pitching prospect earlier in the draft. The risk is that he has below average control, he needs to keep working on the changeup, and there is injury risk too, as 78 IP is his career high (he missed time with a shoulder injury this year). But he’s the type to get the redraft guys in a tizzy when they finally discover who he is in spring training, and ponder why this guy didn’t get more prospect hype. Wiggins is one of the top pitching prospect targets this off-season. – 2026 Projection: 4/3.89/1.31/83 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.55/1.22/170 in 150 IP

4) Moises Ballesteros – CHC, C, 22.5 – Ballesteros had the type of MLB debut that I love to see, just immediately proving the profile will transfer, slashing .298/.394/.474 with 2 homers, an 89.1 MPH EV, a .342 xwOBA, and a 18.2/13.6 K%/BB% in 20 games. The dude has been a precocious hitter since stepping on a pro field in the DSL in 2017, and he’s just kept on hitting every single year and at every higher level, now including the majors. This is a bat you want to bet on, regardless of the warts, but there are some concerning warts. Most notably, he’s not a good defensive catcher, putting his ultimate defensive home in question, and putting major pressure on the bat. He doesn’t lift and pull with a 0.9 degree launch and 4.4% Air Pull% in the majors (9 degree launch and 9.6% Air Pull% at AAA). He’s super slow with a bottom 17% of the league sprint. And he was bad vs lefties at AAA with a .577 OPS. If he ends up a short side of a platoon DH that doesn’t hit a ton of homers, that is super weak for fantasy. But if he plays in 120+ games with catcher eligibility and an Alejandro Kirk like offensive profile, that ain’t bad at all. I’m actually getting more discouraged by him as I’m writing this blurb and listing out his negatives but all this guy has even done is hit, so I can’t fade him too much. – 2026 Projection: 31/8/36/.269/.310/.403/1 Prime Projection: 66/18/79/.283/.334/.435/3

5) Jefferson Rojas – CHC, SS/2B, 20.11 – I always put Rojas in the better real life than fantasy prospect bucket, and that is still the bucket I have him in. He has a good middle infield glove and he has a good feel to hit, which is as safe as a real life prospect gets, but he doesn’t have the tools to get me excited for fantasy with an average power/speed combo. To his credit, he bounced back in a major way coming off a down 2024, slashing .278/.379/.492 with 11 homers, 14 steals, and a 15.7/12.7 K%/BB% in 67 games at High-A, but he fell off a cliff when he got to Double-A with a 54 wRC+ in 39 games. He was only 20 years old, so the High-A numbers mean more to me, but I do think it hints at the subdued upside as he starts facing better competition. Solid prospect, but not a high upside fantasy prospect. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 81/17/66/.271/.334/.419/19

6) Kevin Alcantara – CHC, OF, 23.8 – Alcantara has been such an intriguing fantasy prospect for several years now with raw upside to dream on at a projectable 6’6” with hard hit ability and plus speed, but he still hasn’t put it together. He had a decent year at Triple-A with a 109 wRC+ in 102 games, but it came with a 30.5% whiff% and 29.8% K%, he stole only 10 bags, and he didn’t lift and pull with a 9 degree launch and 12.7% Air Pull%. The 90.4 MPH EV and 45% Hard Hit% are good, but they aren’t so good where you can just ignore everything else. He’s simply still too raw. And he’s blocked in Chicago. He seems like the exact type to take a shot on when he’s like 27 years old on his 2nd team and starting to refine his hit tool enough to let his other tools shine. He’s got a good CF glove, so the glove should help him get on the field when the bat does potentially get refined enough. But in the near term, it’s hard to really keep targeting him. A trade would do wonders for his fantasy value. – 2026 Projection: 18/4/23/.227/.289/.378/2 Prime Projection: 67/20/74/.246/.318/.427/18

7) Jonathon Long – CHI, 1B, 24.2 – I really like Long’s bat. I’ve actually really liked Long’s bat since I called him a deep league sleeper as a 9th round pick in his 2023 Draft year, but unfortunately, when you are a 1B only prospect, really liking a prospects bat isn’t enough. You have to think it’s going to be one of the better bats in MLB to bet on them securing a full time job, and I can’t say that about Long. The biggest issue for me is that he didn’t lift and pull a ton at AAA with a 10 degree launch and 10.5% Air Pull%. He still hit 20 homers in 140 games, and he hits the ball really hard with a 90.9 MPH EV and 47.1% Hard Hit%, but if we need to bet on his bat exploding so hard and quickly in the majors to win a 1B/DH job, I would optimally want to see more lift and pull. The plate skills are strong with a 19.1/13.0 K%/BB%, so he’s not just a home run or nothing guy, but again, at 1B, a solid above average bat with good but not great homer totals just might not be enough. Especially in Chicago where Michael Busch is locked at 1B and they have plenty of other DH options both short and long term. If he were on another team, I could see ranking him higher, but until he’s on that other team, this is as high as I can go. – 2026 Projection: 14/3/15/.247/.308/.407/0 Prime Projection: 74/22/79/.265/.330/.453/2

8) Kane Kepley – CHC, OF, 22.2 – Selected 56th overall in the 2025 MLB Draft, Kepley had one of the best pro debuts in the class, and you know I love me a good pro debut. He slashed .299/.481/.433 with 2 homers, 16 steals, and a 11.5/19.1 K%/BB% in 28 games at Single-A. It’s the same thing he did after transferring into the ACC his junior year with a 7.1/14.2 K%/BB%, 3 homers, and 45 steals in 61 games. The plate skills are excellent, he’s a great base stealer with plus speed, and most importantly for this type of profile, he has a good CF glove. A guy with a good glove in CF, excellent contact rates/approach, and speed is going to make an impact in both real life and fantasy if he gets on the field. He’s not a big guy at 5’8”, 180 pounds, and he’s doesn’t much raw power, so the risk is that he tops out as a 4th outfielder. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 76/10/53/.271/.332/.378/28

9) Josiah Hartshorn – CHC, OF, 19.2 – Hartshorn was selected 181st overall in the 2025 MLB Draft, but his $2 million signing bonus shows you the type of talent he has. He’s an already built up 6’2”, 220 pounds with easy plus raw power potential and a good approach at the plate. He’s a switch hitter, but injuries (elbow and back) have prevented him from actually hitting from both sides at the same time very often, sometimes only hitting righty and sometimes only hitting lefty, so there is a definitely a rawness there that you can either look at as a good thing (plenty of room for refinement) or a bad thing (risk). He’s a solid athlete but he’s not a burner and he looks a bit lumbering out there on the bases, so I don’t think steals are going to be a major part of his game. You are betting on the size, power and approach here, but plenty more refinement is needed. There is a reason he slipped so far in the draft despite the high signing bonus. – ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 72/23/78/.258/.327/.441/8

10) Cristian Hernandez – CHC, SS, 22.3 – The big talent that made Hernandez the top international signing in his class is still here at an uber athletic 6’2” with an electric swing, raw power, and plus speed, but his pro career has been a struggle. Credit to him for righting the ship after it bottomed out in 2022 and 2023, but it just feels like so much work has gone into him just being a mediocre bat in the lower minors. He was a 21 year old at High-A and he put up a 97 wRC+ with a .252/.329/.365 triple slash. Granted, we saw a lot of 21 year old college bats step into the lower minors and put up some mediocre lines too, so maybe I’m being harsh, but that might say more about the 2025 college class than it does about Hernandez. The good news is that the 20.7/10.5 K%/BB% is solid, the SS glove is solid, and the fantasy upside is in here with 52 steals. The power upside is there too, but he hit only 7 homers with a 47.1% GB% in 115 games, so he doesn’t seem that close to tapping into it. He’s a mid 20’s breakout candidate at best, and it’s possible he drops like a stone once he starts seeing advanced pitching in the upper minors. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 67/14/61/.243/.312/.413/22

Just Missed

11) James Triantos – CHC, 2B, 23.2

12) Pedro Ramirez – CHC, 2B/3B, 22.0

13) Juan Cabada – CHC, 2B/3B, 17.11

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Way, way back in October of last year, I went where no man had gone before, deep into the bat speed leaderboards to see if we could glean any sleepers from them, and it was immediately obvious that there was a treasure trove of value to be pulled from there. Seriously, bat speed was not really being talked about or used that much (or nearly at all if my memory serves me right) as it was relatively new to Statcast. As the off-season went along, people jumped on the bat speed bandwagon, and at this point it is very obvious that bat speed is a tremendously valuable tool to use in your player evaluation. I had a ton of target hits using bat speed like Tyler Soderstrom, Jo Adell, Junior Caminero (less a target and more just staying super high on him), Spencer Torkelson, and Addison Barger. Hunter Goodman I didn’t call a target because I was worried about his glove, but I did name him as a bat speed standout and worth going after for that alone. There were misses too like Oneil Cruz and Jordan Walker, but I’m less interested in focusing on the guys with huge bat speed this off-season, and more interested in how many guys were able to improve their bat speed year to year. I closed out my thoughts on bat speed last year by writing, “Guys who “swing for the fences” are going to swing faster, hit for more power, and strikeout more. Guys who swing slower are going to make more contact, but not hit for as much power. So I don’t think bat speed is necessarily a completely sticky thing if a player decides to change his approach to hit for more power or contact. We’ll have to keep an eye on this in future years as we continue to build on this data to see how often that happens exactly, and how often it’s successful. Really cool to have this data at our fingertips now.”

And as we saw with PCA, bat speed can definitely be improved very quickly, and it can result in the power explosion we want. Meaning, we shouldn’t just automatically cap a player’s power upside if they come up and don’t immediately swing a fast bat. PCA improved his bat speed by 2.1 MPH and went from 10 homers to 31 homers. Brice Turang was the #1 bat speed riser in baseball, raising it 4.5 MPH, and he went from 7 homers to 18 homers. Anthony Volpe was the 2nd biggest riser at 3.3 MPH, and while he didn’t have a great year, he did go from 12 homers to 19 homers. Sal Frelick raised it 1.9 MPH, going from 2 homers to 12 homers. Geraldo Perdomo raised it 1.4 MPH, going from a career high of 6 homer to 20 homers. Maikel Garcia raised it 1.1 MPH, going from 7 homers to 16 homers. There are more power breakouts up and down the bat speed risers list. While you can’t solely contribute bat speed to all of the power breakouts, it is clearly a major reason. And the takeaway for me here is what I suspected last off-season, which is that guys can improve their bat speed considerably year to year. It’s why I’m not panicked over Matt Shaw’s below average 69.6 MPH swing. My bet is that rises in 2025, just like it did with PCA this year. So while bat speed is certainly a major tool to use, I would caution about putting too much emphasis on it, especially for younger players who are still getting comfortable vs. MLB pitching. It is not a power death sentence to swing a slower bat, as the skill can very obviously be improved, and be improved in a major way year to year.

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

Posted on September 11, 2025 by Michael Halpern

Updated Top 60 2026 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon)

Pro debuts always shake up the First Year Player Draft Rankings, and while of course there is risk to overreacting to a small sample at the end of a long season, I’ve found you end up getting a lot more right than you do wrong by reacting to pro debuts, both in a positive and negative direction. It’s where a guy like Charlie Condon goes from 1st overall, to the back of the Top 10. Where Jacob Berry gets tanked down rankings. Where Alex Freeland and Jacob Reimer become deep sleepers. Where you find out just how bad the hit tool is for high risk, high reward prospects, a la Elijah Green’s 40.4% K% in 12 games in rookie ball in 2022. Where you find out a hit tool first high school bat like Carter Johnson doesn’t actually have a good hit tool. You probably forgot he even existed. He followed up his 33.1% K% and .221 BA in 28 games at Single-A in 2024 with a 28.8% K% and .177 BA in 106 games in 2025. He was 18 year old in 2024 and thrown into the fire at Single-A, but it was still a very clear signal to avoid. You get the point. Pro debuts reveal a lot. Here is the link to my original Top 60 2026 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon) with full scouting reports, ETA’s, and Prime Projections. And of course my full Top 100+ 2026 First Year Player Draft Rankings gets released over the off-season with full analysis and Prime Projections. Until then, here is the Updated Top 60 2026 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (Top 10 free here on the Brick Wall):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
–AUGUST 2025 TOP 444 DYNASTY RANKS (End of Season Ranks coming soon)
–END OF SEASON 2025 TOP 325 PROSPECTS RANKS
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1) Eli Willits – WSH, SS, 17.8 – It’s pretty wild to say that even the #1 overall pick is wide open in First Year Player Drafts. There are probably 11 guys that could get taken here and it would be completely reasonable. Maybe even more than that. I’ve never seen a First Year Player Draft that was more “get your guy” than this one. It also means that team needs and win timeline would legitimately come into play for me with this pick. If you already have a very strong young offensive core, and/or if your minor league system is already overstuffed with great hitting prospects who are on the verge of debuting, but you’ve neglected pitching in the rebuild (which is mostly how I build), then I would pivot to Doyle or Anderson with this pick. I hate taking pitchers first, but with no true top elite bats, it’s completely reasonable to take a pitcher first, even in a vacuum, so if your team construction also dictates you should go pitcher, 100% go for it. But if you have the 1st pick because your team was terrible, you are full tear down, and you desperately need to build up a young offensive core, I wouldn’t want to take a pitcher. I’m not holding a pitcher for 3+ years or whatever while I have no shot of competing. And like I said, building that offensive core is of the utmost importance. In that case, Willits’ debut was good enough to have real life mirror fantasy and take him #1 overall. He was only 17 years old and showed off a good feel to hit, aggressive base running, and no lift and pull issues. If he gains power as he ages, and I don’t see why he wouldn’t, this is an impact all category fantasy contributor.

2) Liam Doyle – STL, LHP, 21.3 – Doyle is my top arm, but it’s honestly a coin flip with Anderson. I’m giving the lean to the double plus, upper 90’s fastball. I also think the changeup is underrated. And while Seattle is the best place to pitch, St. Louis is a good pitcher’s park too

3) Kade Anderson – SEA, LHP, 21.2 – I fear that Anderson is more mid rotation startery than optimal for a super high FYPD pick in fantasy, but maybe that is just velocity discrimination getting in the way. He has more pitchability than Doyle, and while the heater sits more 93 MPH, it is a bat missing pitch with carry. The curve, slider and change and are all good pitches. And he’ll pitch in Seattle. Zero issue having him as your top arm.

4) Ethan Conrad – CHC, OF, 21.2 – If I had balls I would put Conrad #1 overall. Dude is 6’3”, 220, he has that upright, loose, and athletic swing that I love, he’s a great athlete with speed, he has power, and he has production. He destroyed the MAAC his Sophomore year, and then did the same in the Cape, and then did the same in the Perfect Game Collegiate League and then did the same to the ACC before hurting his shoulder. I said the same thing about Konnor Griffin last year. If you have more guts than I do, I can see taking him 1st overall. And maybe by this off-season, I will grow a pair and do it. But for now, I’m comfortable being already super high on him at #4 overall. I see him going like mid teens in recent drafts anyway

5) JoJo Parker – TOR, SS, 19.1 – Yet to debut. He’s the Walker Jenkins of this draft class. Jenkins was the Kyle Tucker of his draft class. It’s literally the Russian Nesting Dolls of FYPD prospects with each of them one inch shorter than the last one. Perfect fits. Hit, power, size, and sneaky athleticism. I get it if he’s your top dog

6) Steele Hall – CIN, SS, 18.2 – Hall had some hit tool questions surrounding his ability to hit the breaking ball, so smart of Cincinnati not to debut him. If I were an MLB organization, I also wouldn’t debut a high schooler with hit tool issues right after he gets drafted. What do you think is going to happen? He’s an 18 year old kid. Why let that get in his head over the off-season? Let him come into 2026 fresh and fully prepared. So we know the risk, but the upside is no joke with an explosive swing that I love, present power even though he’s only 5’11”, and game breaking base running. I’ll take the hit tool mystery box over the hit tool that is no longer a mystery …

7) Ethan Holliday – COL, SS, 18.7 – Colorado of course had zero tact, zero strategy, zero anything, they just threw Holliday and his known risky hit tool right into the fire to get burned. He has a 39.3% K% in 18 games and that doesn’t even include his Golden Sombrero from his last game. I’m not going full panic, but it couldn’t be more clear there is very, very, very real hit tool risk in here. And we have to trust Colorado to develop that hit tool. This is as high as I’m comfortable going on him

8) Seth Hernandez – PIT, RHP, 19.2 – Yet to debut. High school righties are a nightmare class of prospect. Just look at Noble Meyer and Dylan Lesko. Also look at Andrew Painter and Forrest Whitley. Even when it starts out well, it can turn. It is just a long, hard road. Having said that, Hunter Greene exists too. The upside is high, but so is the risk.

9) Aiva Arquette – MIA, SS, 21.11 – I would have liked nothing more than for Arquette to rip up the lower minors and establish himself as not only the top college bat, but also the #1 pick in FYPD’s, but it didn’t happen. He slashed .242/.350/.323 with 1 homer, a 47.2% GB%, and a 23.1/14.5 K%/BB% in 27 games at High-A. It’s good for a 102 wRC+. The silver lining is that he’s running with 7 steals. Part of the allure of Arquette is that there still seems to be upside in here at 6’5”, 220 with smooth athleticism and big raw power, so I’m not going to let the mediocre debut completely turn me off. But I can’t be the only one underwhelmed by this

10) Dax Kilby – NYY, SS, 18.10 – You already know I’m all in on Kilby. He is what the pro debut breakouts are all about, and he’s the #1 pro debut breakout in 2025. He slashed .353/.457/.441 with 0 homers, 16 steals, and a 13.6/16.0 K%/BB% in 18 games at Single-A. He already hits the ball extremely hard with a 91.9 MPH EV and 45.6% Hard Hit%, he has speed, and he’s 6’2”, 190 pounds. The only thing he doesn’t have is lift and pull with a 1 degree launch and 8.8% Air Pull%. I’m not even sure 10 is high enough. Is Eli Willits profile all that different? And it seems Kilby is the bigger, more fully formed version of it. I said there were 11 guys who I can reasonably see going #1 overall, and I meant it.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

Posted on July 15, 2025July 17, 2025 by Michael Halpern

2026 Top 50 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon)

When everyone was shitting on last year’s MLB Draft Class around this time last year, I wrote about how much I actually loved it. In this very article, I wrote, “Do not be scared off to trade into this FYPD class because of the rhetoric you hear from mainstream sources. In fact, you can try to use that to get a discount.” And we are already seeing how exciting that class was for fantasy purposes. Unfortunately, I can’t say the same about this year’s class. If you want to trade for 2026 FYPD picks, don’t pay up for early picks. Grab later ones on the cheap, because like all draft classes, there is still fun talent throughout the rankings. I’ll be going about 50 deep with analysis, prime projections, and where they would rank on the the Top 300 Prospect Rankings for every player. Top 6 free here on the Brick Wall. Here is the 2026 Top 50 First Year Player Draft Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
–MID-SEASON 2025 TOP 437 DYNASTY RANKS
-TOP 50 2026 FYPD RANKS
–JUNE 2025 TOP 302 PROSPECTS RANKS
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–SPREADSHEETS

1) Ethan Holliday – COL, SS, 18.5 – Why does taking Ethan Holliday 1st overall feel like falling into a trap? Why does this feel more like Druw Jones 2.0 than Jackson Holliday 2.0? Why does getting drafted into Coors (4th overall in the Draft), the best hitter’s park in baseball, make this feel like falling even more into a trap? I’m thankful that all of my leagues hold their FYPD/available prospects draft in the off-season, after these hitters debut in pro ball and we can start to get some real data and looks on them against pro competition, because right now, I don’t feel strongly about this top pick at all. I’ve tried to put a pitcher in this top spot, but every instinct I’ve ever developed in Dynasty Baseball just wouldn’t let me do it. I’ve considered some other bats for this top spot too, but the bottom line is that there doesn’t seem to be a single player who has the talent, size, upside, bloodlines, and now ballpark to top Ethan Holliday’s potential dynasty value. He’s 6’4”, 200 pounds with a picturesque lefty swing that is smooth and explosive. It has easy double plus power potential written all over it. The dream is that he becomes a middle of the order masher hitting in Coors with power, patience and a solid hit tool. The problem is that he’s shown some swing and miss risk in his amateur career, he still likely needs to make adjustments to fully tap into his raw power, and he’s also not expected to be a big base stealer. So while it’s super easy to talk yourself out of him, there really isn’t anyone slam dunk enough to move me off him right now. For now, he’s my top dog. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 94/32/103/.266/.352/.508/10 Where he would rank in the Upcoming Top 300 Prospects Rankings: #25 – ranked around Lazaro Montes and Bryce Eldridge

2) Liam Doyle – STL, LHP, 21.1 – I really wanted to put Doyle 1st overall, but I just envisioned Doyle going down with TJ/internal brace while Holliday is ripping up the lower minors and flying up to elite prospect status in the blink of an eye, and I just couldn’t do it. But the reason I wanted to put him first overall, is because Doyle has the type of overpowering, high strikeout stuff that has the potential to simply bulldoze through the minors in the blink of an eye, a la Chase Burns. He’s not as good as Chase Burns, but he’s the closest thing this draft has to him. His main weapon is a mid to upper 90’s fastball with an elite movement profile that is elite at missing bats. The pitch is double plus to legitimately elite, and he throws it often. The secondaries aren’t quite as good, but I think they get undersold. The splitter dominated college hitters with elite whiff rates, the slider has above average potential with bat missing ability, and he’s working on a cutter too. His 42.6% K% led all of D1, and the 8.3 BB% shows the control isn’t in the true danger zone. I also think it says something that the Cardinals drafted him 5th overall. This isn’t the usual Cardinals type of pitcher. They lean floor over upside. But quite clearly they fell in love with Doyle’s upside, which I’m also falling in love with. Kade Anderson is the safer choice and he landed in the perfect situation in Seattle, but I lean pure explosion, and Doyle has more of that explosion than Anderson has right now. Doyle is my top pitcher in FYPD’s. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 14/3.33/1.07/216 in 183 IP Where he would rank in the Upcoming Top 300 Prospects Rankings: #30 – ranked around Jonah Tong, Noah Schultz, and Thomas White

3) Eli Willits – WSH, SS, 17.7 – Willits was the semi surprise 1st pick in the draft, but considering there wasn’t a truly slam dunk #1 overall pick, I don’t think it was much of a surprise at all. It seems that he will sign for an under slot deal, which surely factored into Washington’s decision, but even taking money out of it, Willits has a real case to be the top player in this class. He has one of the best hit tools in the high school class with top of the scale contact. He’s a switch hitter and his swing from both sides of the plate are super simple, easy, and very quick. He has plus speed, he’s an aggressive base runner, and he has a plus SS glove. There isn’t much present power, but he’s one of the youngest players in the class at 17 years old, and he’s 6’1”, 175 pounds, so the power should tick up naturally over time. That gives Willits one of the safest floors in the draft with hit, defense and speed, and there is enough power projection here for him to have real upside too. He was worthy of that top pick in this draft class. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 93/18/77/.283/.348/.438/31 Where he would rank in the Upcoming Top 300 Prospects Rankings: #35 – ranked around Justin Crawford, Colt Emerson, Angel Genoa and Franklin Arias

4) Kade Anderson – SEA, LHP, 21.0 – Anderson couldn’t have asked for a better landing spot than Seattle (3rd overall). Even after falling in love with Doyle’s explosiveness and pure nastiness, pitching in Seattle almost gives Anderson that extra upside nudge to match Doyle’s. And even if Anderson doesn’t have the pure stuff of Doyle, he beats Doyle on pitchability. He’s a 6’2”, 175 pound lefty with an above average to plus 4 pitch mix. The 93 MPH fastball misses tons of bats with a great movement profile, the plus slider is his main breaker, but he throws a plus curve too, and the changeup is a plus weapon vs. righties. He knows how to pitch, he throws the ball over the plate, and there is definitely some projection left on his frame, meaning there is a chance the fastball can sit mid 90’s at peak. It all led to a 3.18 ERA with a 37.4/7.3 K%/BB% in 119 IP in the SEC. It does seem more #2/3 than true top of the rotation at the moment, but again, Seattle give him a bump, and the fastball could tick up in the future. He’s the safer choice over Doyle, and it’s not like he doesn’t have upside himself. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 14/3.41/1.05/205 in 189 IP Where he would rank in the Upcoming Top 300 Prospects Rankings: #40 – ranked around Luis Morales, Logan Henderson, Hunter Barco, Gage Jump and Trey Yesavage

5) Aiva Arquette – MIA, SS, 21.9 – Selected 7th overall, Arquette was the first college bat off the board, and another one wasn’t selected until 13th overall, so he’s clearly the consensus top college bat in the draft by a good margin. The reasons aren’t hard to see. He’s 6’5”, 220 pounds with super smooth athleticism and a viciously quick and powerful righty swing. He slashed .354/.461/.654 with 19 homers, 7 steals, and a 16.5/12.6 K%/BB% in 65 games at Oregon State. He’s not expected to steal many bases, and some hit tool risk could emerge against better competition, so this is a bet on his big righty power bat. He could be a perennial 25+ homer mashing 3B at peak. Do I secretly think Ethan Conrad is the best fantasy college bat in the class? Yes. But trade value matters, and getting the best value out of your draft targets matter too. As of now, you shouldn’t have to go this high to grab Conrad, so I still think Arquette is the smarter play for top college hitter off the board. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 85/26/92/.263/.329/.471/8 Where he would rank in the Upcoming Top 300 Prospects Rankings: #50 – ranked around CJ Kayfus, Ryan Waldschmidt, and Mike Sirota

6) Ethan Conrad – CHC, OF, 21.0 – If there is one guy in this FYPD class that really makes me tingle. The guy who I would hate to leave the draft without. The guy I want to say is my guy, it’s Ethan Conrad. He can so easily become the best fantasy player in this draft, and that isn’t even close to a stretch. He’s 6’3”, 220 pounds, and I’m in love with his lefty swing. It’s loose, athletic, upright, and then he absolutely unfurls on the baseball like a big cat striking it’s prey. He was in the midst of a junior year power explosion with 7 homers in 21 games in the ACC before hurting shoulder diving for a ball which required surgery to repair. But you know I’ve been loving the shoulder surgery discount with so many hitters coming back completely fine, and obviously the Cubs thought the same thing stealing him at 17th overall in the Draft. Not only is the power no joke, but he’s fast and he loves to run with 77 steals in 88 attempts in 200 amateur games. He’s also hit extremely well everywhere he’s been since his freshman year. He had a .813 OPS in 200 PA his freshman year in the MAAC, he topped that his sophomore year in the MAC with a 1.171 OPS in 259 PA, he then went to the Cape and put up a .920 OPS in 120 PA, and then he transferred into the ACC and dropped a 1.238 OPS in 21 games. He’s literally never not hit, and his contact rates have always been pretty damn good too with a 14.4% K% this year, a 15% K% in the Cape and a 12.4% K% his sophomore year in the MAAC. He’s had some chase issues throughout this career, he’s yet to really face super tough competition as he was just getting into the meat of his ACC schedule before getting hurt, and I guess there is some risk coming off the shoulder surgery, but all of that just looks like it opens up a giant buying opportunity to me. Conrad is the guy I’m really targeting in this draft. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 83/24/88/.262/.324/.461/21 Where he would rank in the Upcoming Top 300 Prospects Rankings: #60 – ranked around Jhostynxon Garcia, Xavier Isaac and Dylan Beavers

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)