Edwin Arroyo – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on November 18, 2025November 22, 2025 by Michael Halpern

Cincinnati Reds 2026 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

It’s all about the Reds today on the Brick Wall, and there are targets galore to go after on this team. Like during the regular season, I will be posting a few articles a month for free here on Imaginary Brick Wall with the vast majority of the content over on the Patreon. The Patreon is cooking with deep Positional Rankings kicking off last week, my analysis of Imai, Murakami, and Okamoto for FYPD’s dropping yesterday, a Top 70 Sneak Peek of the 2026 Top 1,000 already up, and 17 Dynasty Team Reports completed. Here is the Cincinnati Reds 2026 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 70 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2026 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
–END OF SEASON 2025 TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
–END OF SEASON 2025 TOP 325 PROSPECTS RANKS
-TOP 60 2026 FYPD RANKS w/ Analysis & Prime Projections for every player
–2026 Deep Positional Rankings: Top 80 Catchers
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: END OF SEASON MAILBAG!
–SPREADSHEETS
–OFF-SEASON CONTENT: Dynasty Team Reports (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy of the Day), Deep Positional Rankings, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Position by Position Targets, 2026 & Prime/Peak Projections, Top 1,000+ Dynasty Rankings, Top 500+ Prospects Rankings, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks + much more

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Arizona Diamondbacks—Atlanta Braves—Baltimore Orioles—Chicago Cubs (free)—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—New York Yankees (free)—Pittsburgh Pirates (free)—Seattle Mariners—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

Hitters

Spencer Steer – CIN, 1B, 28.4 – Steer is one of my favorite buy low vets for 2026. He got off to a rough start to the season with his Hard Hit rate way down, but we know the reason for that. He had a shoulder injury that required a cortisone shot in spring which wiped out basically his enter spring training. He couldn’t play the field due to the injury until late April. It’s clear he wasn’t 100%, and it resulted in a 9.8 point drop in Hard Hit% through July. He went from a 39.9% Hard Hit% in 2024 to a 30.1% Hard Hit% in his first 101 games, but it was a different story in August and September. The shoulder obviously started to feel much better, and not only did his Hard Hit% rebound, but it jumped to career best levels. He put up a 37% Hard Hit% in August and then a 47.4% Hard Hit% in September. At the very least, it seems likely the Hard Hit rate will jump back up into the high 30’s, and with a full off-season to get healthy and stronger entering his age 28 year old season, my bet is that he will be at career high levels. I think September was just a taste for the future. He also ran far less than he did in 2023-24, but when you are nursing an injury, it’s only natural to not risk getting hurt on the bases. He was still 7 for 8 when he did run, and he has a 28 ft/sec sprint, so the ability for 20+ is still in here if he so chooses, and I think he will choose to run a lot more in 2026. Combined with his lift and pull profile (18.8 degree launch with a 25.8% Air Pull%), plate skills (21.6/10.1 career K%/BB%), and great ballpark, all signs point towards a big 2026 season for Steer. Between 1B, DH, and LF, I’m not worried about his playing time either. Buy the dip. – 2026 Projection: 77/24/89/.252/.331/.445/15

Noelvi Marte – CIN, 3B/OF, 24.6 – I want to name Marte a major target, but seeing his 134th overall NFBC redraft ADP, and knowing his value is probably even stronger in dynasty, I actually don’t think my value of him is all that different from consensus. People like him, and so do I, but there are enough flaws in the profile for me to stop short of saying I would truly pay up much higher than where he’s currently going. When I give my “Targets,” I try to give real sharp targets based on perceived value. If I name a target who is already being valued pretty highly, like Hunter Greene last off-season, it’s because I still don’t think that high value is high enough. They aren’t just “breakout” picks. Not to say giving “breakout” picks isn’t valuable, but if everyone agrees that someone is a good breakout candidate, I can’t call them a true target. And the main thing stopping me short from going full 5 alarm target status on Marte relative to perceived value is that the 36.3% Hard Hit% and 91.4 MPH FB/LD EV are pretty mediocre. It sat 35.5% in August and September, so you can’t say it was getting better either. The other reasons are that the plate skills are rough with a 23.6/4.4 K%/BB%, the contact is below average with a 27.1% whiff%, and he’s in defensive limbo with a move to RF where we still don’t know how good he’s going to be out there. But the reason he’s a major breakout candidate is because he’s an electric talent with a 73.3 MPH swing and 29 ft/sec sprint. He already broke out somewhat in 2025, bouncing back from his PED induced down year, hitting .263 with 14 homers and 10 steals in 90 games. He improved his lift and pull with a 12.7 degree launch and 17.6% Air Pull%, and Cincinnati is one of the best hitter’s parks in the game. 20/20 with a solid BA seems reasonable, and the talent is in here to do much more than that with continued improvement and more hard hit, which should come considering that bat speed. He’s worth his current high price. – 2026 Projection: 75/23/77/.258/.309/.445/19

Matt McLain – CIN, 2B, 26.8 – I can’t say my faith in a McLain bounce back is as strong as my faith in a Steer bounce back, and that is because I don’t trust the hit tool. His batting average tanked to .220 which is backed up by the .213 xBA and 28.9/9.5 K%/BB% in 147 games. Maybe you can say he was shaking off the rust after missing the entire 2024 season with a shoulder and rib injury, but you would have hoped to see him improving as the year went on, and that wasn’t the case. He was even worse at the end of the year with a 35.4% K% in August and September. He can hit it hard enough with 40%+ Hard Hit rates, and he can lift it with a 16.3 degree launch, but the very low 12.9% Air Pull% is why he still only managed 15 homers in 147 games. He’s fast and he runs with 18 steals (and the capability for more if he can get on base more), and he’s a good 2B, so the glove should keep on the field. The fantasy friendly upside is most certainly still in here, and I would bet on a better season in 2026, but I’m not confident enough in it to call him a target. He’s actually going higher than Steer at 203rd overall (Steer is going 226th), and I also sense his value is stronger in dynasty, so I don’t foresee myself getting much McLain this off-season. – 2026 Projection: 76/19/65/.238/.315/.420/22

Pitchers

Nick Lodolo – CIN, LHP, 28.2 – Just call him Nick “The Eternal Target” Lodolo, because for the 28th straight year, Lodolo is a target this off-season. Can’t say I didn’t see it coming, both in terms of him breaking out in 2025, and in terms of him still somehow remaining an underrated target, writing in his Top 1,000 blurb last off-season, “The Eternal Buy Low is back at it again. It wouldn’t be a dynasty baseball off-season without Nick Lodolo being a buy low candidate. I imagine that one day I will be in my 80’s, and I will be writing about how Nick Lodolo Jr. is a great buy low candidate. Like father, like son (or maybe like grandfather, like grandson at that point). It’s been a frustrating start to his career because we all know there is so much more in here, but I’m not letting that frustration get to me. Certainly do not sell low on this man, and once again, target him.,” … and now that he broke out in 2025 with a 3.33 ERA and 24.3/4.8 K%/BB% in 156.2 IP, paying off majorly if you’ve been taking my advice over the years … he’s still somehow underrated and a target. Even in the breakout, he left hints that this isn’t the peak, and those “hints” were a 2.90 ERA with a 27.4/4.8 K%/BB% in his last 77.2 IP. The 27.5% whiff% on the season is well above average, and it jumped to 34.7% in those final 77.2 IP. He’s always been a big strikeout guy throughout his career. That 24.3% is so clearly on the very low end of his ability, and as we saw in the 2nd half, he has the ability to combine his newfound elite walk rates with a high strikeout rate. The 93.8 MPH fastball isn’t dominant, but it’s a good pitch with a 23.1% whiff% and .305 xwOBA. The curve is a whiff machine with a 40.3% whiff% and .212 xwOBA. And the changeup and sinker were actually his two best pitches by Statcast Run Value with a +7 on each pitch. Both pitches keep the ball on the ground. Maybe it’s that people are still super scared off by Great American Ball Park, but I’ve been hitting on targets like crazy the past few years by not being scared of it. I’ve hit on Greene (see below), Lodolo and Burns (I guess that remains to be seen), and I’m going to keep going to that well on all 3. Lodolo has only 409.2 IP in his career, so he’s still in the ascending part of his career. 2026 is the year where it truly all comes together for that career year. He’s never been more of a target, and I’m sure going into 2027, he will somehow still be a target. – 2026 Projection: 13/3.28/1.11/185 in 165 IP

Hunter Greene – CIN, RHP, 26.8 – I nailed Greene’s ace breakout in 2024, calling him a major target, and then I doubled down in 2025, predicting that wasn’t even the peak. Who else predicts a random jump in control but me? Greene had a 9% BB% in 2022, a 9.6% BB% in 2023, and a 9.3% BB% in 2024, and I looked at that and said, you know what, I’m smelling improvement coming, writing in his Top 1,000 blurb last off-season, “His control/command remained below average, but I still think there is another level in here as he stays healthy and gains more experience. I don’t even think this is the peak, assuming he stays healthy, which who knows there honestly (he missed time with elbow inflammation this year). Greene had the ace breakout I knew was coming, and I’m going to continue to buy high.” … and then he went out in 2025 and proved me prescient with that huge jump in control I saw coming, putting up a 6.2% BB%. It wasn’t a “random” prediction of course. It was me betting on his athleticism and work ethic, and it resulted in the cementation of true ace status with a 2.76 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and a 31.4/6.2 K%/BB% in 107.2 IP. The 99.5 MPH 4-seamer put up a +20 Run Value which was tied for 5th best in baseball and the double plus slider put up a 46.9% whiff%. You can ding him for injury risk as he only pitched 107.2 IP and has never pitched more 150.1 IP in a season, but it was a groin injury that knocked him out for over 2 months this year, so I find it hard to really hold that against him too much. He also didn’t improve his third pitch at all, the splitter, with a negative 5 Run Value on the pitch. The negatives are enough to very clearly keep him out of the true top tier, but you know I’m going to keep betting on this kid. He ranked 36th overall on A Top 70 Sneak Peek of the 2026 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). – 2026 Projection: 13/3.22/1.06/207 in 170 IP

Cincinnati Reds 2026 Top 10 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Prospects Rankings

1) Chase Burns – CIN, RHP, 23.2 – Chase Burns is my #1 pitching prospect in baseball (at least in leagues that use the 50 IP threshold, like most of my leagues do, and not service time, because based on service time he’s not prospect eligible anymore). I was high on him in First Year Player Drafts last off-season, ranking him 4th overall, because I saw the type of true ace upside that was worth sticking your neck out for, and then he went out and proved it. He sliced through the minor leagues with a 1.77 ERA and 36.8/5.4 K%/BB% in 66 IP, and then he almost did the same in the majors with a 3.47 xERA (4.57 ERA) and a 35.6/8.5 K%/BB% in 43.1 IP. The 98.7 MPH 4-seamer is near elite with a 25.2% whiff% and +4 Run Value and the slider is also near elite with a .229 xwOBA and 43.7% whiff%. He only went to the changeup 5.6% of the time, mostly vs. lefties, but it was a solid pitch with a 33.3% whiff% and 75.7 MPH EV against. The control was really good too. He’s an athletic 6’3”, 210 pounds. I don’t see how it can get anymore obvious than this. This is a true ace waiting to happen, even pitching in Cincinnati. – 2026 Projection: 10/3.42/1.15/190 in 150 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.03/0.98/245 in 190 IP

2) Sal Stewart – CIN, 1B/3B, 22.4 – As much love as Stewart is getting right now, it’s not nearly enough. I honestly don’t see how he’s not being valued like an elite dynasty prospect. He’s always displayed near elite plate skills with a plus hit tool his entire professional career from the time he was drafted at 18 years old as the 32nd overall pick. And then in his age 21 year old season he had that monster power breakout to combine with the plate skills. He hit 20 homers with a 93.1 MPH EV, 51.3% Hard Hit%, 14.2 degree launch, and a 15.6/9.3 K%/BB% in 118 games at Triple-A. That is a special hit/power combo, and then he closed the year out by dominating the majors with 5 homers, a 95.4 MPH EV, 17.9 degree launch, 52.5% Hard Hit%, and a 23.9% whiff% in 18 games. It was good for a .399 xwOBA. That is absurd for a 21 year old in his first taste of the majors. It’s fully backed up by what he did in the minors. Him going 231st overall in NFBC is way too low, and that is just for redraft. The two biggest knocks on his game are that he’s slow with a 25.8 ft/sec sprint, but he was a solid base stealer in the minors with 17 steals in 20 attempts this year, and we’ve seen slow guys steal a ton of bags (Soto, Naylor), so I think he should at least chip in with a handful, and maybe much more than that. He’s also not great on defense, but Cincinnati has plenty of room at 1B/DH, so I don’t see that as a problem for fantasy. The dude is an elite fantasy prospect and he doesn’t quite get treated that way. – 2026 Projection: 76/25/82/.260/.328/.457/7 Prime Projection: 91/30/94/.277/.351/.502/9

3) Alfredo Duno – CIN, C, 20.3 – Duno vs. Rainiel is a really interesting debate to me as the top catcher prospect in the lower minors, and while it seems the vast majority (or maybe everybody but me, I’m not sure) has it as an easy call in Rodriguez’ direction, I can’t lie that I’m leaning Duno by a slightest of hairs. There are several reasons for that, but the two biggest are that Duno has a massive ballpark advantage (Cincy has the 2nd best ballpark for righty homers and St. Louis has the 5th worst) and Duno also has a path to playing time advantage. Essentially, I think this is Duno’s job when he’s ready and I think he is going to inherently get a longer leash with the bat and glove when he does get that chance. St. Louis is stacked at catcher up and down their organization. The other reasons I have it Duno are because he’s bigger (6’2” vs. 5’10”) and he hits it considerably harder (48.6% Hard Hit% vs. 39.2% at Single-A). Duno had a .423 xwOBA vs Rodriguez’ .368 xwOBA at Single-A. Those are vastly different xwOBA’s. You can say Rodriguez has the age to level edge, but Duno was really good at Single-A as an 18 year old too in 2024. The biggest edge to Rodriguez, and the one where this call could make me look dumb, is that he has the better contact rates. Duno had a 31% whiff% vs. Rodriguez’ 23% whiff%. But Rodriguez had a .249 BA at Single-A because he lifts and pulls an extreme amount, which is great in general, but in a terrible ballpark for righty homers, and with good but not great Hard Hit (there is little to no projection left on his frame, he’s already thick), it might not lead to the highest BA’s in the future either. I love both and it’s coin flip for me, but I have to give my raw unfiltered take on what I would do if I had this choice in my league, and my gut is just leaning Duno. He ranked 14th overall on the Top 80 Catchers: 2026 Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 71/31/87/.251/.340/.491/4

4) Steele Hall – CIN, SS, 18.8 – Selected 9th overall in the 2025 MLB Draft, Hall’s double plus speed and athleticism is his calling card, giving him enticing fantasy upside just based on that, and there is a chance his power potential is being considerably underrated. He’s one of the youngest players in the draft, and while he’s not a huge guy at 5’11”, his righty swing is super fast, explosive, and he knows how to lift it. His power already took a big jump last off-season with tacked on muscle, and if he was able to do it once, who says he can’t keep on tacking on mass. The biggest issue is that he struggles vs. breaking balls, and generally when you go after these type of speed prospects, you want their hit tool to be a plus, rather than a risk. The upside is super fun, especially hitting in Cincinnati, and his young age gives some added legroom for both the power and breaking ball struggles. He has a chance to be a fantasy beast. He ranked 6th overall on my End of Season Top 60 2026 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon). – ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 86/18/74/.251/.321/.427/37

5) Tyson Lewis – CIN, SS, 20.3 – Tyson Lewis is the Spencer Jones of the lower minors. Or the Munataka Murakami of the United States … kinda (I just dropped my Analyzing Imai, Murakami, and Okamoto for 2026 First Year Player Drafts post on the Patreon). These are the type of players who really test your risk tolerance, and while you know I’m not scared of taking on extra risk, even I have to stop and pause for a second at these atrocious contact rates. Lewis put up a 45.8% whiff% with a 35.4% K% in 35 games at Single-A. We should write him off then, right? Well no, because his talent is just as insane in the opposite direction. He’s a physical specimen at a rock solid 6’2”, and the power/speed combo is elite with a 92.4 MPH EV, 50% Hard Hit%, and 27 steals in 81 games on the season. Even with missing the ball like half of the time, he still managed a 114 wRC+. These players are honestly impossible to evaluate, because you are inevitably going to either end up too high or too low. If he can get the contact rates into a reasonable range, a la the career path of Elly De La Cruz (who wasn’t even as bad as Lewis), we could be looking at an elite dynasty asset, but if can’t, he might barely make it out of Triple-A, or he might breakout at like 27 years old on his 3rd team. We almost have no choice but to split the difference, which is why I had him ranked 57th overall on my End of Season Top 325 Dynasty Prospect Rankings (Patreon). – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 77/22/76/.229/.308/.435/24

6) Rhett Lowder – CIN, RHP, 24.1 – 2025 was a completely lost season for Lowder. A right forearm injury sidelined him until May, he got bombed in 4 outings, and then he missed almost 4 months with an oblique injury. He returned for one start at the end of the year and 4 in the AFL, so he should be fully healthy for 2026 at least. While he deserves a mulligan for the lost season, his upside was already questionable without big stuff and in a terrible ballpark. I love the ballpark discount for guys with nasty stuff like Greene/Lodolo/Burns, but not for these control over stuff guys. Lowder had a 90 Stuff+ in his 30.2 IP MLB debut in 2024 and he struggled to miss bats with a 20.1% whiff%. The fastball sits 93+ MPH and he’s got two good secondaries in his slider and changeup, so it’s not like he’s got no stuff at all, and the plus control/command helps everything play up. He got drafted 7th overall for a reason. In a better ballpark, I can see going higher than this, but in Cincinnati, I don’t see the fantasy upside to really go after him. – 2026 Projection: 2/4.29/1.32/61 in 70 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.81/1.20/164 in 170 IP

7) Hector Rodriguez – CIN, OF, 22.1 – Rodriguez has been a precocious hitter since the time he stepped on a pro field at 17 years old, and in 2025 he proved that special hit tool will have no problems in the upper minors, putting up a .283 BA with a 15% K% in 135 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. A hit tool like that generally finds it’s way onto the field, but the negatives in his profile overshadow that hit tool a bit for me. He doesn’t have much defensive value as a decent corner outfielder, he doesn’t get on base with a 46.6% Chase%, he’s not a great base stealer with 15 steals in 22 attempts on the season, the raw power is only average to maybe above average with a 39.3% Hard Hit%, and he hits the ball on the ground a ton with a 48.1% GB%. It doesn’t seem like a high upside fantasy profile or a high upside real life profile. He’s always going to have to scratch and claw for playing time because the defense ain’t great. He’s a fringe Top 100 prospect for me, and that could be generous. – 2026 Projection: 11/2/13/.255/.295/.391/3 Prime Projection: 82/16/61/.273/.322/.429/16

8) Cam Collier – CIN, 1B, 21.4 – Collier had one of the all time weird power outages in 2025. He went from hitting 20 homers in 119 games at High-A as a 19 year old, to just 4 homers in 95 games at mostly Double-A as a 20 year old. You can say it was because of the higher level, but he also hit just 1 homer in 22 games in the hitter’s paradise that is the AFL. It’s just odd. He had a 90.1 MPH EV in the AFL and he has impressive top end exit velocities, so it’s not like he can’t hit it hard either. He’s not a huge lift and pull guy, but it doesn’t go extreme in the other direction either, so that can’t fully explain it. He almost certainly got unlucky and I’m sure he will hit a lot more in 2026, but with him moving to 1B, the bat needs to be bulletproof, and 5 homers in 117 games is certainly not bulletproof. He hit well otherwise, especially for a 20 year old at Double-A with a 114 wRC+, so it wasn’t a disaster season by any stretch, but the 27.9% K% shows there is also hit tool risk here. He was useless vs lefties with a .563 OPS. I like Collier and I like his bat, but at 1B, you need to really love the bat to rank him highly, and 2025 was just too underwhelming. He’s a solid fantasy prospect but I can’t say he’s a highly valued one. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 71/22/77/.250/.332/.441/1

9) Aaron Watson – CIN, RHP, 19.3 – Selected 51st overall in the 2025 MLB Draft, Watson is a projectable 6’5”, 205 pounds who already has polished control/command over his low to mid 90’s fastball. If that thing ticks up into the mid 90’s consistently, he’s going to be dangerous just off that, and he combines that with two potentially plus secondaries in his slider and splitter. Both still need refinement and he doesn’t command them as well as the fastball, but there are a lot of really interesting ingredients here. Size, easy delivery, projection, double plus control of a good fastball, two good secondaries. There is a lot to like here. I’m a fan as a later round FYPD arm to go after. – ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 10/3.91/1.22/165 in 170 IP

10) Edwin Arroyo – CIN, SS, 22.8 – Arroyo has a good SS glove with a good feel to hit, above average speed, and upper minors production, giving him one of the safer profiles a minor league can have. He slashed .284/.345/.371 with 3 homers, 12 steals, and a 16.9/7.7 K%/BB% in 120 games at Double-A. He had a more contact oriented approach this year, putting up a career best K%, but it came at the cost of his power with a career worst 50.8% GB%. He needs to find a happy medium between the two approaches, and considering he missed all of 2024 after undergoing shoulder surgery, missing key developmental time, we might want to give him some leeway to do just that. A power breakout, or even just a leveling up will start to get his hype brewing again, but even as if, he’s not a bad prospect for medium to deeper leagues – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 74/14/56/.266/.320/.405/16

Just Missed

11) Chase Petty – CIN, RHP, 23.0

12) Stharlin Torres – CIN, RHP, 19.10

13) Mason Neville – CIN, OF, 22.3 – Selected 114th overall in the 2025 MLB Draft, the 6’3”, 200 pound Neville is a super fun fantasy prospect with big time power (26 homers in 57 games in the Big Ten) and athleticism (9 steals), but as you can see from the draft slot, MLB teams don’t think he’s going to hit. He put up a 23.6% K% this year, he had a 33.5% K% in the Pac 12 last year (a tougher conference than the Big Ten) and he had a 48.7% K% in 39 PA in the Cape. He then proved the hit tool fear correct in pro ball with a 34.4% K% and 41.7% whiff% in 23 games at Single-A. He’s a good defensive OF and can play CF, so at least his glove has a chance of getting him on the field to give the hit tool time to improve, and Cincinnati is also the most fun landing spot for a guy like this. If you want upside from a bat later in the draft that isn’t a teenager, Neville is a good option, but those contact numbers in pro ball were too extreme to really target him. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 62/18/69/.226/.305/.430/12

14) Arnaldo Lantigua – CIN, OF, 20.3

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

There is a major gap between how badly fantasy managers think Great American Ball Park tanks pitchers, and how much Great American Ball Park actually tanks pitchers. It’s really not that bad guys. It is only the 4th worst ballpark in baseball with a 103 Park Factor (3 year rolling average), meaning it’s not all that much worse than average (100 Park Factor). Coors has a 113 Park Factor for reference. For just 2025, it was actually a below average hitter’s park at 18th overall! I’m telling you, it’s really not that bad. Sure it juices up homers, but that is much more a positive for hitters than it is a negative for pitchers if the rest of the park factors mitigate that HR advantage, which is the case in Cincy. People were scared off of Greene when I was yelling buy. People were scared off of Lodolo when I was yelling buy. People were dropping Burns in FYPD Ranks because of it when I ignored it. Shit, just look at the season Andrew Abbott just had. He doesn’t even have nasty stuff and he still managed a 2.87 ERA in 166.1 IP, I’m not saying that wasn’t good luck or that is sustainable, I’m just saying you can even get random great years like that. Please do not be scared of this ballpark. It is not worthy of that level of fear, and I still see fantasy managers treat it like some horrific ballpark. I’ve been sweeping up on value because of that fear, and I plan to do the same in 2026.

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

Posted on October 30, 2023November 1, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Cincinnati Reds 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I like to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team, and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Cincinnati Reds 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 78 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-SEPTEMBER 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-SEPTEMBER 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)
-Off-Season content includes team dynasty reports, deep positional rankings, predicting future prospects lists, strategy articles, podcasts and very, very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Chicago White Sox–Colorado Rockies–Kansas City Royals–Milwaukee Brewers–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

Hitters

Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 22.3 – Call me crazy, but I’m actually encouraged by Elly’s 33.7% K%, 29.7% whiff%, and .235 BA in his age 21 year old season in the major leagues. In last year’s Top 1,000 Rankings, I projected Elly’s 2023 triple slash would be .232/.294/.433, and it ended up being .235/.300/.410. Not bad if I don’t say so myself, but point being, this is exactly what you should have expected. He also had a 26.9%/14.0% K%/BB% in 38 games at Triple-A, which proves he is capable of making real improvements to his plate approach over time (30.9%/7.7% K%/BB% at Double-A in 2022). And his hit tool only needs to get to below average to be an absolute fantasy monster. The power is elite with a 91.2 MPH EV and 119.2 Max EV which was the 3rd highest mark in the league. It came with a 3.6 degree launch, but he has the type of power that is launch proof (13 homers in 98 games), and he’s never had any major groundball issues in the minors, so that number is only coming up. He also has elite speed with 35 steals and a 30.5 ft/sec sprint speed which was tied for the fastest man in baseball with Bobby Witt. I always say, “if you can’t take risks in fantasy, where can you take risks,” and I’m not even sure Elly is as risky as people think. I’m all in. He ranked 9th overall on A Top 78 Sneak Peek of the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). 2024 Projection: 91/25/85/.244/.317/.452/52 Prime Projection: 103/33/109/.261/.337/.506/65

Christian Encarnacion-Strand CIN, 1B, 24.4 – Strand was so good in his rookie year it might have pushed Joey Votto right out the door before he could have his final year retirement tour (he still wants to come back to the Reds for one more year, we’ll see). He cracked 13 homers with a 10.5% barrel%, 95.8 MPH FB/LD EV, 18.6 degree launch, and .347 xwOBA in 63 games. Even his hit tool was pretty good with a .270 BA and .268 xBA. The plate approach wasn’t great as expected with a 28.6%/5.8% K%/BB%, but he proved he’s capable of making improvements in that area at Triple-A with a 21.8%/10.4% K%/BB%. Speaking of Triple-A, he decimated the level with 20 homers and a 155 wRC+ in just 67 games. Strand is on a beeline to be one of the premier power hitters in the game. 2024 Projection: 78/32/90/.252/.318/.499/5

Spencer Steer CIN, 1B/3B/OF, 26.4 – I named Steer a target last off-season and finished his Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “He’s in a great ballpark and I’m betting on those EV numbers coming up enough for Steer to do damage. I would buy his poor MLB debut.” As I predicted, his poor EV numbers in his rookie year (84.7 MPH) came way up to 88.7 MPH, and he most certainly did damage, slashing .271/.356/.464 with 23 homers, 15 steals, and a 20.9%/10.2% K%/BB% in 156 games. The underlying numbers back up the production with average to above average marks everywhere you look. The one issue is that he was poor defensively everywhere he played, and Cincinnati is stacked with the talent right now. A playing time crunch is coming and Steer could be a victim of it, unless Cincinnati can make a trade for pitching this off-season, which they clearly should. 2024 Projection: 79/24/81/.266/.341/.457/13

Matt McLain CIN, 2B/SS, 24.8 – While we’re all drooling over AFL breakouts right now, here is a reminder that McLain tanked in the AFL in 2022 with a .190 BA and 31.2% K%, before becoming one of the biggest MLB breakouts in 2023. He slashed .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers, 14 steals, and a 28.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in 89 games. He obliterated Triple-A too with a 184 wRC+ in 40 games. He has double plus speed with a 29 ft/sec sprint and he has above average power with a 89.3 MPH EV and 13.8 degree launch. His plate approach wasn’t great with a 28.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in the majors, but his chase rate was above average at 25.4%, and his 28% whiff% shows he isn’t going to have any major contact issues. He also had a 20.6%/16.7% K%/BB% in the minors. And the cherry on top is that he is a good defensive player, so he should be safe from the playing time crunch. McLain is the real deal and should be valued as a top 50 dynasty asset. 2024 Projection: 87/26/83/.269/.343/.468/24

Pitchers

Hunter Greene CIN, RHP, 24.8 – Buy low on Hunter Greene. We’ve been taught over and over again to not throw the towel in on elite pitching prospects if they don’t immediately dominate their first few years in the league, and Greene has all of the ingredients to be a next level breakout as he gains more experience. He had a 4.82 ERA in 112 IP, but the 3.82 xERA shows he was unlucky, and the 30.5%/9.6% K%/BB% is screaming future ace breakout. The stuff is fire with a 98.3 MPH fastball, a plus slider that notched a 39.2% whiff%, and an improving changeup that put up a respectable .314 xwOBA against. I know the fastball gets hit harder than you would expect, but as his command improves and as he continues to tinker with his arsenal, I’m betting on him figuring it out. This is going to be one of those breakouts that look so obvious in hindsight. 2024 Projection: 11/3.72/1.25/200 in 160 IP

Andrew Abbott CIN, LHP, 24.10 – Abbott took the majors by storm in his first 10 starts at the level with with a 1.90 ERA and 66/19 K/BB in 61.2 IP, but the league caught up with him in the 2nd half with a 6.42 ERA and 54/25 K/BB in his final 47.2 IP. The stuff is solid, but not truly standout with a 92.7 MPH fastball, he got hit very hard with a 91.2 MPH EV against, and the control is below average with a 9.6% BB%. Those were some of the reasons I wasn’t fully buying into Abbott when he was crushing the minors, but I don’t want to make the same mistake for his 2nd time through the majors. He still had a strong debut overall with a 3.87 ERA and 26.1% K% in 109.1 IP. He has a legit 4 pitch mix where the sweeper notched an elite .182 xwOBA against, and the changeup missed bats with a 39.4% whiff%. He definitely has the collection of skills to be an impact fantasy starter, I’m just not sure I would put top of the rotation expectations on him, especially in Cincinnati. 2024 Projection: 11/3.93/1.29/187 in 170 IP

Bullpen

Alexis Diaz CIN, Closer, 27.6 – Diaz was much better in the first half (1.80 ERA with a 40.4% K% in 35 IP) than the 2nd half (4.45 ERA with a 20% in 32.1 IP), but nothing really changed in his profile, so I’m leaning towards it being small sample reliever variance. It all evened out to a 3.07 ERA and 30.1%/12.6% K%/BB% in 67.1 IP. The slightly more concerning thing is that the stuff wasn’t quite as good in 2023 as it was in 2022 with his fastball down 1.3 MPH to 94.5 MPH, and it got hit harder too with a 90.2 MPH EV against vs. 86.6 MPH in 2022. The slider also wasn’t as good with the whiff% dropping 7 percentage points to 38%. Some of this feels like slicing and dicing the numbers a little too much, which is why I’m still projecting him as elite, but if he struggles, it’s not like their weren’t some red flags. 2024 Projection: 6/3.02/1.12/85/36 saves in 65 IP

Cincinnati Reds Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Noelvi Marte CIN, 3B, 22.6 – Everyone called Marte fat and slow this off-season, so of course he put up double plus run times in the majors with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. Be super wary of scouting speed grades as they are wildly inaccurate (see also, Henry Davis and Nolan Jones). Not only is he a speedster, but he crushed the ball with a 91.3 MPH EV, and the hit tool looked good with a 20.3% K% and .296 xBA in 123 MLB PA. It all resulted in a slash line of .316/.366/.456 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 20.3%/6.5% K%/BB%. He showed those same skills in the upper minors with 11 homers, 18 steals, and a .279 BA in 92 games. He did all of this as a 21-year-old. He’s fast, he hits it hard, he gets the bat on the ball, he produced in the upper minors, he produced in the majors, and he was super young. Quite simply, this is an elite fantasy prospect, and I’m not sure he gets the respect he deserves. 2024 Projection: 77/19/73/.261/.322/.431/22 Prime Projection: 96/27/91/.276/.354/.491/25

2) Edwin Arroyo CIN, SS, 20.7 – Arroyo got off to a cold start in April and May, be he turned it on in June and never looked back, slashing .281/.360/.480 with 9 homers, 25 steals, and a 20.1%/10.1% K%/BB% in his final 89 games. 4 of those games came at Double-A where he put up a 153 wRC+, albeit with a 30%/5% K%/BB%. He’s a switch hitter who hits well from both sides of the plate, he has plus speed, and at 6’0”, 175 pounds, there is definitely room for him to add more power. I’m not sure I see a star when I watch him, but he’s still quite young, and I wouldn’t completely rule that out as a possibility at this point. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/18/74/.253/.320/.428/25

3) Rhett Lowder CIN, RHP, 22.1 – Selected 7th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Lowder is a relatively safe, quick moving college arm. None of his stuff is jaw dropping, but he has plus control of 3 above average to plus pitches in his 93-94 MPH fastball, slider and changeup. It led to a pitching line of 1.87/0.95/143/24 in 120.1 IP in the ACC. He’s 6’2”, 200 pounds with an athletic delivery, he works fast, and he throws strikes with good stuff. Take a star away for landing in Cincy’s hitter’s haven, but I wouldn’t let the landing spot completely spoil you on him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 13/3.78/1.18/185 in 180 IP

4) Chase Petty CIN, RHP, 21.0 – If Petty was throwing as hard he was throwing in his draft year (mid to upper 90’s), he would be an elite pitching prospect right now, but he’s settled in as a low to mid 90’s guy. Even with the modest velocity, he does everything else so well, this version of him might actually be better than the version we thought we were getting. He’s now a pitcher’s pitcher with elite control (5.5% BB%) and a very diverse pitch mix. He throws so many different pitches that all look pretty similar out of his hand and are all at around similar velocities, but they break a different way as they get closer to the plate. He throws a hard gyro slider, a hard split change, a 2 seam fastball, 4 seam fastball, and a slightly slower breaking ball. He’s a nightmare to face. You can almost say he’s a junk baller type, but he throws his secondaries so hard it wouldn’t exactly be accurate. He dominated with a 1.72 ERA and 24.1%/5.5% K%/BB% in 68 IP at mostly High-A. He closed out year at Double-A and was equally as dominant. The floor might be higher than the ceiling at the moment, but if he all of a sudden finds that old velocity of his, watch out. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 11/3.74/1.19/166 in 170 IP

5) Connor Phillips CIN, RHP, 22.11 – Phillips’ control took a monster step forward at Double-A with a 9.5% BB% (14% BB% in 2022), but it proved to be a pre-tacked ball mirage. His walk rate exploded again at Triple-A and MLB with a 16.9% BB% and 13.5% BB%, respectively. When MLB tests out new rules/balls in the minors, they tend to make their way to the majors, so I wouldn’t be shocked if MLB incorporates a tackier ball at some point in the future. It will majorly help poor control guys like Phillips if they do, because his stuff is utter filth with a 96.4 MPH fastball and an elite slider that notched a 48.9% whiff% and .152 xwOBA in 20.2 MLB IP. With the pre-tacked balls at Double-A, he had a 3.34 ERA in 64.2 IP, but that jumped to 4.69 at Triple-A and 6.97 in the majors. The stuff is tantalizing and makes you want to bet on him, but the control is in the major bullpen danger zone with the normal baseballs. 2024 Projection: 4/4.28/1.37/88 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.86/1.32/170 in 150 IP

6) Sal Stewart CIN, 3B, 20.4 – Stewart is proving to have an elite plate approach with a 15.2%/17.1% K%/BB% in 88 games at Single-A (128 wRC+), which he followed up with a 13.7%/13.7% K%/BB% in 29 games at High-A (127 wRC+). And he’s not the type of plus approach guy who doesn’t have much else to offer, Stewart is an excellent athlete at 6’3”, 215 pounds. He hit only 12 homers in 117 total games, but he hit the ball fairly hard, the raw power is only going up from here, and he didn’t have any major groundball issues. He also stole 15 bags, which shows his speed might be getting underrated. The biggest problem is his defense, and in a jam packed organization like Cincinnati, that could become an issue down the road. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 82/25/88/.274/.351/.473/8

7) Ricardo Cabrera CIN, SS, 19.5 – Here’s how I closed out Cabrera’s Top 1,000 blurb last off-season, ranking him 985th overall, “I don’t think it’s a good idea to give too long of a leash on hyped international prospects who struggle their first year or two in pro ball, but I also don’t want to pull the rip cord too early. Gotta give them at least a year to get acclimated.” That proved wise with Cabrera as he followed up a mediocre pro debut in the DSL in 2022 with a full scale breakout in 2023. He slashed .350/.469/.559 with 5 homers, 21 steals, and a 20%/12% K%/BB% in 39 games at stateside rookie, and then he went to full season ball and put up a 159 wRC+ in 5 games. He has a good feel to hit, a strong plate approach, and a potentially above average power/speed combo. He’s bigger and hit the ball harder than the next two guys on this list, which is why I have him slotted ahead of them. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 81/20/77/.267/.330/.441/18

8) Carlos Jorge CIN, 2B, 20.6 – Jorge is a small guy at 5’10”, 160 pounds and he doesn’t hit the ball all that hard with low EV’s and hard hit rates. It makes me a little hesitant to rank him too highly, but he’s the type to get the most out his raw power through quality of contact. He pulled the ball over 50% of the time and he doesn’t have any groundball issues. He’s a destroyer of levels with a 173 wRC+ in 2021 in the DSL, a 151 wRC+ in stateside rookie in 2022, and a 140 wRC+ at Single-A in 2023 (he struggled at High-A to close out the year with a 86 wRC+). What you are really buying here is the very mature plate approach (19.7%/13.2% K%/BB%) and plus speed (31 steals). If the raw power meaningfully ticks up in the future, he will be a fantasy beast, and even if it doesn’t, he has the skillset to make a fantasy impact. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 83/15/61/.263/.337/.421/26

9) Hector Rodriguez CIN, OF, 20.1 – Rodriguez looks like such a natural and easy hitter at the dish. He has a calm setup before exploding with a pretty nasty lefty swing. He’s done nothing but produce in pro ball, and that continued in 2023, slashing .293/.347/.510 with 16 homers, 18 steals, and an 18.9%/6.1% K%/BB% in 101 games at Single-A before slowing down at High-A (88 wRC+ in 14 games). The problem is that he is a small guy at 5’8” who doesn’t have a ton of raw power. He also doesn’t walk a ton. Projecting that out on the MLB level, it could end up looking like a bottom of the order contact/speed play, but maybe that is just the small man bias kicking in. If he was taller, his hype would be a lot louder right now. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 78/16/69/.273/.328/.427/23

10) Cam Collier CIN, 3B, 19.4 – Collier had a very lackluster season with only 6 homers, a 53% GB%, and a .706 OPS in 111 games at Single-A. There is no doubt his value is lower today than it was last off-season, but there are enough positives to think the best is yet to come. He was very young for his draft class and was just 18 years old playing the entire season in full season ball. He hit the ball very hard, especially for his age, and he showed a strong plate approach with a 23%/12.4% K%/BB%. His 98 wRC+ was also nearly average. If he can raise his launch angle, and I would bet on him being able to do so, he can still very easily live up to hit plus hit/power profile coming out of the draft. He’s a hold. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/24/84/.265/.334/.468/5

Just Missed

11) Blake Dunn CIN, OF, 25.7

12) Rece Hinds CIN, OF, 23.7

13) Alfredo Duno CIN, C, 18.3

14) Lyon Richardson CIN, RHP, 24.2

15) Ty Floyd CIN, RHP, 22.7 – Selected 38th overall, the 6’2”, 200 pound Floyd has a plus to double plus mid 90’s fastball that he leans on heavily. It led to a 4.35 ERA with a 31% K% in 91 IP. There are more than a few heavy fastball usage pitchers who are doing well in the majors right now, but those guys generally have plus control and/or better secondaries than Floyd. Floyd’s control is below average with a 9.6% BB%, but it was improving as the year went on, and his slider, curve and change are about average at best. If the secondaries and/or control take a step forward, there is very real upside here, and I don’t mind targeting him at all as a later round arm if you focus on offense with your earlier picks. He ranked 37th overall in my End of Season Top 54 FYPD Rankings. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/3.95/1.27/165 in 160 IP

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

I talked about this in my Pittsburgh Pirates Strategy Section, but it’s worth pounding the point home in the Reds section as well, I’m salivating at what “Vegas” is going to set the Cincinnati Reds win total O/U at this off-season. I’ve been absolutely lights out with MLB win total over/unders these past two years. I wrote/tweeted about my bets on the Orioles and Rangers last off-season, and I did the same for my Twins bet the off-season before that. I think “Vegas” underrates the bubbling minor league systems of up and coming teams, and the Reds are the exact type of team they’ve underrated in the past. They are loaded with talent, they have great depth, and their pitching will get underrated with possible breakouts from Greene, Lodolo, and Abbott. Arms like Phillips, Richardson, Petty and Lowder are all knocking on the door as well. This a team ready to explode, and I doubt their win O/U will fully reflect that.

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 9, 2022May 17, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/9/22)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/9/22):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED APRIL 2022 TOP 414 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED MAY 2022 TOP 316 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

George Kirby SEA, RHP, 24.2 – Kirby made his MLB debut and went 6 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER and a 7/0 K/BB vs. Tampa. The 4-seamer dominated, sitting 95.8 MPH with a 48% whiff% on the pitch. He had just climbed to #8 overall on my Updated Top 316 Prospects Rankings over on my Patreon, writing, “He could take Brash’s spot in the rotation shortly.” Granted, you didn’t have to be Prospectdamus to see that one coming.

Royce Lewis MIN, SS, 22.10 – Lewis followed in Kirby’s footsteps, rising to #7 on the Updated Prospects List and then getting the call shortly after that. He’s 3 for 10 with a double and K in his 3 game debut, and the underlying numbers are impressive with a 91.8 MPH EV, 22.1 degree launch, and an 11.1% whiff%. He might not stay up with Correa’s injury not as bad as originally feared, but Lewis is trending towards being a fantasy star.

Manuel Margot TBR, OF, 27.6 – I’ve had Margot in the late career breakout bucket for awhile now, seeing a similar career path to Lorenzo Cain, and it might finally be happening as Margot ripped his third homer of the year to bring his season wRC+ up to 170 in 24 games. He has a career high 91.4 MPH EV, 17.3 degree launch angle, and 19.7% whiff%.

Juan Yepez STL, 1B/3B/OF, 24.0 – Yepez smashed his first MLB homer on a 406 foot shot to the deepest part of the ballpark. He is starting his MLB career on a 5 game hit streak, and 4 of those games were multi hit games. He’s not guaranteed a full time job, but as long as he keeps hitting, they will find a way to get his bat in the lineup.

Owen Miller CLE, 1B/2B, 25.6 – Miller stays hot with his 3rd homer in 22 games. He’s handily outperforming his underlying numbers (.445 wOBA vs. .368 xwOBA), so while I think he can be a solid bat long term, I don’t think he is going to maintain anything close to this level. I would consider him a sell high candidate.

Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 21.7 – Carroll has been going bonkos all season, and he’s now going doubly bonkos with his 2nd straight 2 homer game. That’s 4 homers in his last 2 games for 9 homers on the season. Tack on 8 steals and a .326 BA and he is in the conversation for the top prospect in baseball. He checked in at #5 on my Updated Top 316 Prospects Rankings.

Zack Gelof OAK, 3B, 22.5 – Gelof lifted off twice as well for his 3rd and 4th homers in 25 games at Double-A, and both were hit the opposite way. A fan in a cartoonishly sized cowboy hat had the first homer all lined up but he botched the play. Gelof has a 123 wRC+ at the level, but a 27.6%/6.5% is a little worrisome when trying to project his production out on the MLB level.

Austin Martin MIN, OF, 23.0 – It took long enough but Martin finally got on the board, pulling a breaking ball that never really broke for his 1st homer of the year. 13.7%/12.8% K%/BB% with 14 steals in 25 games at Double-A looks great, but he’s just not doing enough damage on contact with a .337 SLG.

Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 19.8 – Lawlar continues to separate himself from the 2021 high school SS class, going 2 for 5 with a double, homer, and 0 K’s. He’s now slashing .301/.443/.542 with 6 homers, 15 steals, and a 25.5%/16% K%/BB% in 23 games at Single-A.

Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 21.0 – 5 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 5/0 K/BB at Double-A. Plus control of his mid 90’s fastball is his bread and butter, and the secondaries have been more refined this year. He rose to #53 overall on the Updated Prospects Rankings, one spot ahead of one of my favorite prospects, Brayan Bello.

Mick Abel PHI, RHP, 20.7 – 4 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 6/5 K/BB at High-A. Seeing all the walks coming back is not great, but it’s still been much improved overall with a 10.4% BB% in 18 IP. The stuff is filthy and he’s been a K machine with a 37.7% K%. After the top arms in the upper levels graduate, Abel should rise into elite pitching prospect territory.

Edward Cabrera MIA, RHP, 23.11 – Max Meyer is making everyone forget about Cabrera, but he did his best to make as all remember yesterday, going 5 IP with 3 hits, 0 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB. He’s still struggling with his control on the season though with a 15/8 K/BB in 13 IP. Meyer should be the next man up in Miami, but it’s not out the realm they go back to Cabrera first.

Edwin Arroyo SEA, SS, 18.7 – 2 for 5 with his 5th homer in 24 games at Single-A. He now has a 149 wRC+ with 6 steals and a 18.6%/10.6% K%/BB%. Arroyo has been out of his mind recently and is one of the top breakouts in the first month of the season. He climbed to #167 on the Updated Top 316 Prospects Rankings, and even that might not be enough.

Carson Williams TBR, SS, 18.9 – Williams is another 18 year old breaking out in full season ball, jacking his 3rd homer in 21 games and is now slashing .301/.372/.578 with 3 homers, and 7 steals. The 37.2% K% is quite high, but he’s only 18, and his swing is so damn explosive at 6’2”, 180 pounds it’s hard not to get excited.

Roberto Campos DET, OF, 18.10 – Campos crushed his first homer of the year in 25 games at Single-A, but he’s been hitting the ball really hard all year and his power isn’t in question. More importantly, the K rate has been strong with a 22.4%/7.1% K%/BB% and has been solid all year with a 108 wRC+. Now is probably the time to buy in if he’s still out there.

Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 18.1 – The 18 year old Chourio made his season debut at Single-A last week and he’s done nothing but hit since then. He cranked his first homer yesterday and is now slashing .480/.519/.800 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 14.8%/7.4% K%/BB% in 6 games. I’ve ranked Chourio pretty aggressively, and the hype is about to blow up if he keeps this up. Elite prospect potential.

Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 22.2 – Make it #6 for Casas at Triple-A. I imagine that when Bobbly Dalbec looks in the mirror to brush to his teeth in the morning, he sees Casas right behind him like it’s a hacky horror movie.

Nick Yorke BOS, 2B, 20.0 – Yorke’s been finding his power stroke of late, drilling his first 2 homers of the year in his last 5 games. This one was a no doubter out to deep centerfield, showing he definitely has some raw juice in the tank. He has a 21.3% K% with a .238 BA, so the hit tool hasn’t exactly been as elite as hoped.

Justin Foscue TEX, 2B/3B, 23.1 – Foscue has been quietly putting in work at Double-A, going 2 for 3 with a homer and 2 walks. He has a 15.9%/14.5% K%/BB% with a 145 wRC+ in 16 games at Double-A. He’s joining Josh Jung as two rock solid college bats who should produce in Texas for years to come.

Brendon Davis LAA, 3B/OF, 24.8 – 2 for 5 with his 5th homer. The surface stats haven’t been great with an 88 wRC+, but the underlying numbers look excellent with a 17.9%/12.2% K%/BB% and a 37.6% GB% in 28 games at Triple-A. He has big power at 6’4”, 185 pounds, and seeing the K rate being kept in check is big.

Blaze Alexander ARI, SS, 22.11 – Alexander is bouncing back from a down 2021, walloping 2 homers yesterday and is now slashing .322/.403/.644 with 4 homers and 3 steals in 15 games. 31.3% K% is still too high, but he’s putting himself back on the map.

Ken Waldichuk NYY, LHP, 24.3 – Waldichuk had the best start of the day, going 5 hitless innings with a 12/3 K/BB. He’s a 24 year old “crafty lefty” dominating younger competition at Double-A with a 1.14 ERA and 40/9 K/BB in 23.2 IP. I wouldn’t go crazy for him, but the guy obviously knows how to pitch.

Hayden Wesneski NYY, RHP, 24.4 – Wesneski is the 24 year old Yankees pitching prospect I prefer, and he pitched damn well himself, going 5 IP with 4 hits, 2 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB at Triple-A. He does have the big stuff and is now sitting on a 2.48 ERA with a 32/6/ K/BB in 29 IP.

Michael Burrows PIT, RHP, 22.5 – One of the most underrated pitchers in the minors continued his dominance, going 4 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB. The stuff is straight filthy and he’s rocking a 34%/6.8% K%/BB% in 26.2 IP at Double-A. He’s a must pick up in every league.

Jacob Amaya LAD, SS, 23.8 – The Amaya breakout continues, going 3 for 5 with a triple, homer, and a 1/3 K/BB in a doubleheader. Simply calling it a breakout might be an understatement because the the numbers are straight elite, slashing .351/.473/.797 with 7 homers (27.9% GB%), 2 steals, and a 13.2%/18.7% K%/BB% in 22 games at Double-A. He cracked the Updated Prospects Rankings at #200, and he just keeps on rising.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED APRIL 2022 TOP 414 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 316 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)