Denzel Clarke – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on June 2, 2025June 4, 2025 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (6/2/25)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (6/2/25):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
–MAY 2025 TOP 443 DYNASTY RANKS (5/30/25)
–MAY 2025 TOP 323 PROSPECTS RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAY MAILBAG!
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2026 PROSPECTS RANKS
–SPREADSHEETS

Addison Barger – TOR, 3B/OF, 25.6 – Three weeks ago here in the Monday Rundown I ran to the town tower to ring the Buy Bell on Addison Barger, writing, “It’s time to target Barger everywhere. He actually has a positive 2.6 defensive value, which is getting me pumped, because his bat is no joke. He has an elite 76.3 MPH swing with a 13.6% Barrel%, 96.1 MPH EV. 13.5 degree launch, and .362 xwOBA in 59 PA. The plate skills are taking a big jump forward too with his K% all the way down to 16.9% (26.7% in 2024) and his Chase all the way down to 20.2% (31.5% in 2024). Barger is a major target right now. Go after him.” … and now the true star explosion is happening with him homering in 3 straight games. Yesterday’s was a 112.3 MPH piss missile. As I already gave you the heads up on weeks ago when not a peep was being whispered about this man, he looks like a true superstar. I’m not going to repeat all of those top of the scale metrics again, but all of them are still shining. I’ve seen the hype grow already as more people are noticing, so it could be too late, but I know if you read my work, you’ve had him for weeks already.

Jacob Wilson – OAK, SS, 23.0 – 4 for 4 with 4 singles … dude is a hit machine with a .357 BA and 5.8% K%. He also stole his 5th bag to go along with 7 homers in 57 games. And I really, really, really hate to do this, because he’s so fun, but I gotta pour just a little cold water. His .324 xwOBA is much much lower than his .393 wOBA. And he’s not the type of lift and pull hitter who generally outperforms Statcast. The 63.4 MPH swing is bottom of the scale, the 26.8 ft/sec sprint is well below average, and the 2.8% Barrel% is very weak. I’ve been seeing him valued like one of the elite up and coming dynasty players in the game, and if you can sell high on a valuation even close to that, I would be all over it. Now having that, I wasn’t buying Wilson this off-season, and that was clearly miss. So after doing a ton of victory lapping in this one below, let me take a walk of shame up top on Wilson. He’s a special contact hitter with enough homers and steals to be an impact fantasy player. He’s good for sure. He’s just not this good … I don’t think.

Hayden Birdsong – SFG, RHP, 23.7 – I knew it was only a matter of time before Birdsong found his way into the rotation, and he’s now solidifying that spot with another strong outing yesterday. He went 5.1 IP with 5 hits, 1 ER, and a 5/0 K/BB at MIA. The 4-seamer sat 95.9 MPH and put up a strong 24% whiff%. The slider was excellent with weak contact (83 MPH EV) and whiffs (26% whiff%), the curve was a whiff machine with a 40% whiff%, and the changeup induced weak contact with a 74.7 MPH EV against. And most importantly, the control was on point with 0 walks. His fastball is a double plus pitch, the 30.1% whiff% on the season is near elite, and he has a diverse pitch mix with 3 good secondaries (the changeup has been his best secondary thus far). He was a major target for me this off-season, and he just ranked 181st overall on the Updated Top 444 Dynasty Baseball Rankings that dropped on the Patreon last week. His come up has only begun.

Ryan Weathers – MIA, LHP, 25.4 – Speaking of off-season targets who we had to wait a little bit on for the breakout, Weathers returned from his forearm strain looking no worse for the wear. In fact, he looks better than ever, going 6 IP with 5 hits, 4 ER, and a 7/3 K/BB vs. SF. Not his best outing, but this was coming off 3 gems to start his season, and he still so clearly flashed that true top of the rotation upside. The 4-seamer sat 97.5 MPH, the changeup racked up 9 of 12 whiffs, the sweeper induced weak contact with a 67.8% EV against and a 25% whiff%, and the slider notched a 60% whiff%. It was good for an elite 36% whiff%. He now has a 2.49 ERA with a 25.3/8.0 K%/BB% in 21.2 IP. The 28.6% whiff% is double plus, the 87.3 MPH EV against is well above average, and all of his pitches are working for him. I loved Weathers this off-season, and I’m even more all in now.

Kris Bubic – KCR, LHP, 27.7 – Not to take away from myself in previous years, but I think I’m having a Target career year. I say this in all humility, it’s kinda nuts how many target hits I’m having this year, and Bubic is huge one. The cat’s already long out of the bag on him though, and he just keeps on dominating, going 7 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER and a 9/1 K/BB vs. DET. The 93 MPH fastball dominated with a 40% whiff% and the changeup dominated too with a 60.3 MPH EV against and 55% whiff%. The sweeper and slider performed well too, leading to a 33% whiff% overall. He’s been lights out all year with a 1.43 ERA and 26.9/7.5 K%/BB% in 75.1 IP. In my 18 teamer, I cashed him in for Jazz Chisholm back in mid April, and I can’t deny that trade has been eating at my guts ever since. I still have Jazz ranked higher, but man, Bubic is untouchable. I’m sick over it, and I’m not even kidding. Let me move on to the next blurb. I don’t want to think about it anymore …

Denzel Clarke – OAK, OF, 25.1 – Okay, so it hasn’t exactly been perfect with a 60% K% … to say the least, but give this man a second to get comfortable. And he has gotten slightly better of late. He went 1 for 3 with 2 steals yesterday, and yes it came with 2 K, but he didn’t strikeout once the day before that, and he only struck out once the day before that one. The 42.1% whiff% actually isn’t as horrific as the K%, and that’s been coming down too. We’ve seen Clarke make improvements to his contact in the minors too. And of course, that huge talent which I saw coming a mile away is shining through. He cracked a 106.5 MPH dinger on Saturday, showing that his power is huge enough to overcome a low launch. His 30.2 ft/sec sprint makes him the 3rd fastest man in baseball behind only Bobby Witt Jr and Byron Buxton (damn, even with all the injuries, and being 31 years old, Buxton is still an elite talent). We also saw the double plus defense with one of the most beastly home run robberies I’ve seen. I was all over the Bleday fade this off-season, writing in his Top 1,000 blurb, “Bleday is a low ceiling player with little speed, a below average BA, and above average homer power at best. I also think there is risk too, because he’s a below average outfielder, and Denzel Clark and Colby Thomas are charging hard to compete for those open OF jobs. He’s actually getting valued pretty highly, so if you can sell high here, I would go for it.” … even with Clarke’s deficiencies, his talent is too big, and his glove is too good to not give him a shot in fantasy. I’m still buying.

Jacob Melton – HOU, OF, 24.7 – Melton was a FYPD favorite of mine in his draft year, and I’ve been relatively high on him ever since, so I’m pumped to see him getting his shot in the bigs. And he most certainly deserved this promotion with a 95.6 MPH EV, 17 degree launch, 21.1% whiff%, and 23.5% Chase% in 17 games at Triple-A. That is special across the board domination, and what made me love him so much in his draft year is that he’s a special athlete at 6’3”, 208 pounds. He went 1 for 3 with a 102.3 MPH single off Taj Bradley and 2 K in his debut. I’m not 100% sure how the playing time is going to shake out, but this is an extremely fantasy friendly profile whose hit tool should be good enough to let those skills shine. He ranked 61st overall on the May 2025 Top 323 Dynasty Prospects Rankings (Patreon).

Xavier Isaac – TBR, 1B, 21.6, AA – The explosion is here for Isaac as he just can’t stop hitting dingers. He cracked his 7th homer in 24 games at Double-A with a shot out to dead center, and he did it with a smooth and explosive lefty swing. That thing really is a thing of beauty, and it’s made to hit dingers. It’s also made to strikeout with a 28.9% K%, but he mitigates that a bit with a 20.6% BB%, and it’s been better of late with a reasonable 25% K% in his last 19 games. So at least it’s headed in the right direction. He’s going to live up to his promise as a power hitting beast, the only question is if it will come with a .250 BA, or like a .220 BA.

Jhostynxon Garcia – BOS, OF, 22.3, AAA – One of my top prospect targets this off-season, Jhostynxon is going bonkos since getting the call to Triple-A, smoking his 4th homer in just 11 games at the level. What made me love him this off-season is that he proved the hit tool would play in the upper minors when he got his shot at the end of last season, even if he didn’t hit particularly well, and now he’s locking that in with a 21.5/10.8 K%/BB% in 44 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. And of course, I also love the legit plus power, athleticism (4 steals), and glove. My only plea, is that Boston doesn’t repeat the mistakes of Baltimore. Look at what happens when you let your great depth rot. You need to trade these guys while the iron is hot. Please don’t put Garcia in blocked prospect hell. Trade this man.

Luis Pena – MIL, SS/3B/SS, 18.4, A – Everyone’s favorite prospect, Luis Pena, was another named target for me this off-season. I’m sorry. I know I’m victory lapping a lot, but as I said it in the Bubic blurb, it’s a career target year for me. Not saying I’m not good in other years 😉 but it’s just wild this season. I named him a target because when I watched him swing, I saw an absolutely explosive bazooka that did not do his 1 homer last year justice, and now that swing is producing even more power, drilling his 5th homer in just 30 games at Single-A. When you combine that real power with elite contact (10.4/9.7 K%/BB%) and speed (22 steals), you have a legitimately elite prospect, and that is exactly how I ranked him in the Updated Top 444 Dynasty Rankings, putting him in the elite tier at 87th overall. Damn is he exciting.

Jonathon Long – CHI, 1B, 23.2, AAA – Okay, last lap for today, I promise, but I was the only man alive to call Jonathon Long a FYPD target. He was a 266th overall draft pick college bat, but when I watched that swing, I just saw a real prospect, writing, ““Long makes for an interesting late round target in deeper leagues … He has a very quick and powerful swing that looks relatively legit to me, and he hits the ball hard. Obviously don’t expect a league winner, but I think he’s a real prospect.” And he’s now far beyond a real prospect after cracking one 453 feet for his 9th homer in 52 games at Triple-A. He’s now slashing .344/.419/.561 with 9 homers, 2 steals, and a 23.6/11.1 K%/BB% in 52 games. He has a 93.3 MPH EV with a solid 26.1% whiff% and 26.9% Chase%. His bat is way beyond “real,” it has the potential to be truly impact on the MLB level. The problem is that he’s a 1B and there isn’t a path to a full time job right now, but if does get his shot, I’m still betting on his bat.

Emmet Sheehan – LAD, RHP, 25.6, AAA – Sheehan is making his return from Tommy John surgery, and in his first start back at Triple-A, he looked like fire, going 3 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 5/0 K/BB vs. a pretty decent lineup that featured JJ Bleday, Colby Thomas, Seth Brown, Darrel Hernaiz, and Max Muncy. The fastball sat 96.9 MPH and dominated with 9 of 17 whiffs. The slider was excellent too with a 73.3 MPH EV against and 33% whiff%. And he mixed in a changeup too which put up a 33% Called Strike+Whiff%. That is basically the formula which made him a near elite prospect a few years ago, and the one that showed so much promise in his 2023 MLB debut. While it’s unclear when he will get another shot in the majors, make sure he’s back on your radar. He’s healthy and looks great.

Joe Boyle – TBR, RHP, 25.8, AAA – I was singing Boyle’s praises in the May Mailbag Podcast (Patreon), and he went out yesterday and threw a gem at Triple-A, going 5 IP with 3 hits, 0 ER, and a 9/1 K/BB. The fastball sat 97.6 MPH and put up a 28% whiff%. The slider and splitter were whiff machines too, leading to a 28% whiff% overall, and of course, the control was on point. That is the big factor in what is making me love him right now. The 11.1% BB% is actually reasonable considering his level of stuff. It’s also a career high by far. Tampa done did it again. You have to trust them, and they very well might turn Joe Boyle into a high K, mid rotation starter.

Taj Bradley – TBR, RHP, 24.1 – 7 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 10/2 K/BB at HOU. The 97 MPH fastball put up a 85.6 MPH EV against and a 24% whiff%. The splitter was dynamite with a 86% whiff% and 62.2 MPH EV against. In fact, all 4 of his pitches induced an insane amount of weak contact with an 82.7 MPH EV overall. That is the definition of turning the other team’s bats into noodles. Like those pool noodles you used to beat the crap out of your of your friends with in the pool when we were kids. Bradley has been sitting in the breakout waiting room for 3 years now, and while we’ve seen stretches of this, this does seem like he’s quietly leveling up. His 3.24 xERA is actually excellent, even if I can’t quite buy it with a 22.0/9.3 K%/BB% and 24.3% whiff%. I can’t take him out of the breakout waiting room quite yet, but we are seeing some signs that just maybe he’s getting close.

Chris Paddack – MIN, RHP, 29.4 – 8 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 10/1 K/BB at SEA. Let’s be honest, is there a more perfect ballpark for Paddack than Seattle with that elite control, fastball heavy approach? I feel like if Paddack was on Seattle, his entire career would be different. He would be like Bryan Woo out there. But we don’t live in that timeline, and he’s on Minnesota, but it’s time to show him some respect as he now has a 3.58 ERA with a 18.7/7.5 K%/BB% in 65.1 IP. Sure that K/BB is rough, but in this latest outing the whiffs were there for him with a 30% whiff% overall. All 4 of his pitches were missing bats. I can’t really say I’m buying here, as the upside is probably more solid than truly standout, but Paddack is clearly stabilizing his career right now, and solid is a lot better than what he’s shown previously. And if he keeps getting outings in Seattle, he would be a true ace 😉

Cal Raleigh – SEA, C, 28.4 – Cal hits dingers. We knew this already. But this season, he’s taking it to another level with his 23rd homer last night. That gives him the league lead in homers. The 24.3% Barrel%, 92.6 MPH EV, 24 degree launch, 27.3% K%, 14.6% BB%, and .408 xwOBA are all career highs by far. He’s so easily the top dynasty catcher in the game right now, and I gave him his due respect in the Updated Top 444 Dynasty Baseball Rankings that dropped last week on the Patreon, ranking him 46th overall. Even that might be too light.

Coby Mayo – BAL, 3B, 23.6 – Called back up and the misery continues. He went 0 for 4 with 2 K yesterday. He had just about the worst attempt at drawing interference on the basepaths I’ve ever seen the day before that. I don’t think any player has made themselves more at home on the Bottom of the Rundown than Cody Mayo … well, that’s not true, Jarred Kelenic exists, and he’s now descended to even lower than the Bottom of the Rundown … Off the Rundown … not even worth discussing anymore. So there’s that at least for Mayo. At least we are still discussing his ineptness …

Brailyn Antunez – MIL, OF, 17.6 – Here is your reminder that the DSL kicks off today, and while I’m excited about so many players in the incoming class, none are getting me as excited as Braylin Antunez. Here was my blurb for him this off-season, “At 6’0”, 194 pounds, Antunez’ build, movements and type of athleticism remind me of an NBA point guard. He has present power, he’s fast, and he has a good feel to hit. There might not be as much projection as some of the other long and lean builds in this class, but there is some Jasson Dominguez vibes in the sense he might be pretty filled out already, but it’s the type of athleticism that he will maintain. Some of these guys could fill out and slow down considerably, while Antunez has already proven he can do both. I like him a lot, and how can you not trust Milwaukee after Chourio and Made.” I then named him a major target in the Target Articles. And now we will see if he can hit a lick and live up to my hype …

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

Posted on September 16, 2024September 16, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (9/16/24)

Welcome to the final Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown of the season! But here at Imaginary Brick Wall, not only do we run through the finish line, there is no finish line! The rest of this week on the Patreon will be more Rundowns and the September Mailbag Podcast. Then the final week of the regular season will be the End of Season Top 400+ Dynasty Baseball Rankings. And after that, the fun is just getting started with tons of off-season content like Dynasty Team Reports, Team Prospect Lists, Deep Dynasty Positional Rankings, Strategy Articles, Top 100+ FYPD Rankings, Top 500+ Prospects Rankings, Top 1,000+ Dynasty Rankings and so much more. But first, here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (9/16/24):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-SEPTEMBER TOP 322 PROSPECTS RANKS
-END OF SEASON TOP 400+ DYNASTY RANKS COMING NEXT WEEK
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS with full scouting reports and prime projections
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: SEPTEMBER MAILBAG! COMING THIS WEEK
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT! – Dynasty Team Reports, Team Prospect Rankings, Deep Positional Rankings, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks, Top 500+ Prospects Ranks, Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks & so much more!

Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 22.6 – Pete Crow Armstrong’s power has been underrated from the time he was drafted. He was my #1 target in his 2020/21 FYPD class after getting drafted a ridiculous 19th overall, writing in his FYPD blurb, “Armstrong stands out for his plus speed, plus defense, and strong track record of hitting. Power hasn’t been a big part of his game, but he has recently added muscle onto his projectable 6’1” frame, and a 99 MPH exit velocity mark at a 2019 Perfect Game event is damn good. Armstrong is my favorite target in first year player drafts relative to consensus.” I’ve basically named him a target every 3 months since then, even ranking him within my Top 100 overall this off-season at #99. And it’s all paying off in a major way right now with him exploding on the MLB level. He homered yet again yesterday going the opposite way on a ball he didn’t even get close to all of. That gives him 7 homers with a 91.3 MPH EV in his last 30 games. A 94.1 MPH FB/LD EV on the season is no joke power. He’s about to rank in the Top 75 on the End of Season Dynasty Rankings coming next week. Put some respect on this man’s name. His name is Pete Crow Armstrong, not Pete Crow Armweak.

Sean Burke CHW, RHP, 24.9 – I’m far from ready to call Burke a target, but I will say that there are some interesting things brewing here that deserve our attention. He had his 2nd strong MLB outing in a row, going 5 IP with 5 hits, 2 ER, and a 5/2 K/BB vs. Oakland. The fastball sat 95.4 MPH and put up a 29% whiff%, while the slider and curve were solid as well with a 33% and 30% whiff%. It led to a 31% whiff% overall. His first outing against Cleveland was more of the same, and he now has a 2.25 ERA with a 30.4% whiff% in 8 IP. He has size (6’6”, 230 pounds), velocity (mid 90’s heat that misses bats) and bat missing secondaries (slider, curve change). He didn’t perform well at Triple-A with a 4.62 ERA in 64.1 IP, but all 4 of his pitches missed a ton of bats leading to a 31% K%. Control is the biggest problem here with well below average walk rates his entire career, but super tall pitchers can sometimes take longer to make control gains, and we all know that pitching development isn’t linear. So far in the majors he has a 8.3% BB%. Again, I’m not calling him a target, but I am saying there is some very interesting stuff going on here. There are definitely ingredients for a big breakout in the future, and as a free pick in the vast majority of leagues, I don’t hate it all. Consider this your first little warning on Burke.

Kevin Alcantara CHC, OF, 22.1 – The Forgotten Unicorn just so quietly slides under the radar, staying in the shadows like a Yeti. But this 6’6” uber athlete is going to hit the majors one day, put up an over 90 MPH EV with plus speed, and all of a sudden everyone is going to be in a tither talking about him as Oneil Cruz/James Wood 2.0 (or I guess 3.0). He’s giving us a taste at Triple-A right now after smoothly obliterated a ball out of the ballpark that the fans didn’t even budge on. That is unicorn power right there. He’s now dominating the level, slashing .292/.375/.481 with 5 homers, 5 steals, and a 28.3/10.8 K%/BB% in 29 games. He just ranked 53rd overall on the Top 322 Dynasty Prospects Rankings that just hit the Patreon last week, and while I feel like I’m high on him, I don’t think that ranking is nearly high enough on 2nd thought. This could be a Top 20 fantasy prospect at least right now. He’s a major target this off-season before everyone realizes there is a Forgotten Unicorn on the loose.

Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 23.5 – Speaking of forgotten unicorns, Spencer Jones is turning into one, but I think that is a major mistake. Don’t sell low on this man over the off-season no matter what you do. He had big day yesterday, going 2 for 4 with a double, homer, and 0 strikeouts. He now has only 3 strikeouts in his last 6 games, and while that obviously doesn’t even come close to overriding the 36.8% K% in 122 games at Double-A, I think it does represent his ability to get that K rate closer to the 30% range long term. And a 30% K% is all he needs to let the huge talent shine with 17 homers, 25 steals, and a 124 wRC+ despite the high K rate. Selling low on this kind of upside is a major mistake in my opinion. Hang on for dear life.

Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 22.2 – Lawlar finally showed up to the bar 5 minutes before closing time, and his night is just getting started, taking a shot out to deep left field for his first homer since June 11th. He looks no worse for the wear so far with a .879 OPS in 5 games since returning from a hamstring injury, and he’s also going to be headlining the Winter Ball after party to get more reps in this year, which will be fun to follow. When he’s on the field, he produces. Don’t write him off because of the injuries.

Bryan Ramos CHW, 3B, 22.6 – I held strong on Ramos through the struggles in the August Prospects Rankings, writing, “Down year with a 74 wRC+ in 66 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. It does have his value dropping, but I still believe in his hit/power combo long term. Down years happen, and he has a long track record of success, including at Double-A, so I would stay patient” … and that patience paid off. Since then he slashed .302/.407/.542 with 6 homers and a 19.3/11.4 K%/BB% in 25 games at Triple-A, which earned him a callup to the bigs where he has kept it going. He smashed a 397 foot homer and a 103.2 MPH double yesterday, and he now has a 151 wRC+ with a 90.1 MPH EV and 2 homers in 7 games since getting recalled. He also has legit speed with a 28.9 ft/sec sprint, and while he’s not a big base stealer, he should contribute in the category. He reminds me of a right handed version of Wilyer Abreu. I was high on both as prospects, and neither got nearly enough hype. Ramos should still be very cheap this off-season.

Denzel Clarke OAK, OF, 24.5 – If you missed out on Lawrence Butler, Denzel Clarke is here to give you a do over. They were once upon a time ranked very close together as tooled up A’s prospects with huge power/speed combos and major hit tool issues. But while Butler massively improved his hit tool in 2023, Clarke wasn’t able to do the same … until now. He went 2 for 4 with a 1/1 K/BB and 3 steals yesterday at Double-A, and he’s now slashing .317/.387/.524 with 9 homers, 30 steals, and a 23.5/8.6 K%/BB% in his last 73 games. That 23.5% K% is huge to see as his K rates have sat at or near 30% for his entire career. He’s hitting the ball on the ground a lot more this year, but he has the raw power and speed to make a low launch work, especially if it helps his hit tool. He’s a major stash candidate headed into the off-season.

Walker Jenkins MIN, OF, 19.6 – Jenkins got the call to Double-A, and while there was little doubt that the plate approach was legit, he’s putting it in Sharpie now with a 14.3/10.7 K%/BB% in 6 games as a 19 year old. He’s also leaving little doubt that he will be a legit contributor in steals, going 2 for 5 with his 2nd stolen base at the level yesterday. He’s only hitting .160, so the surface stats aren’t that great, but I’m more excited about the plate approach and steals transferring. Just like Kyle Tucker’s base running ability got underrated in the minors, Jenkins’ might be getting underrated as well. He has 17 steals in 82 games on the season, and if those can really stick in the majors, it’s Kyle Tucker all over again.

Matt Shaw CHC, 2B/SS, 22.10 – I was the high guy on Shaw pre draft. I was the high guy on Shaw last off-season, and I’ll continue to be the high guy on Shaw this off-season, ranking him 3rd overall on the Updated Top 322 Prospects Rankings (Patreon). And he rewarded my continued faith in him with a huge day yesterday, going 4 for 5 with a homer, triple, and a steal. He’s now slashing .296/.382/565 with 7 homers, 4 steals, and a 21.1/9.8 K%/BB% in 29 games at the level. His 91.4 MPH EV backs up the power. He can do it all offensively. That is an elite fantasy prospect in my book.

Aidan Smith TBR, OF, 20.1 – Smith got the call to High-A for the playoffs, and he made his mark yesterday, going 1 for 3 with a bomb that showed off both the power and bat control. He’s a lift and pull machine with a 35.7% GB% and 54.4% Pull%, and we all know Tampa’s ballpark is made for lift and pull. They traded for Smith for a reason. He’s already a Top 100 prospect for me, and his hype has been percolating all season, but it could truly explode in 2025.

Parker Meadows DET, OF, 24.10 – Parker Meadows was left for dead, but he has roared back with a vengeance since getting recalled to the majors, and I think I can now officially say that he was a gosh darn hit for me! He homered on Saturday and is now slashing .297/.342/.536 with 5 homers, 5 steals, and a 19.3/6.7 K%/BB% over his last 35 games. He now has a 110 wRC+ on the season!!! Barrels (8.7% Barrel%), launch (19.6 degree launch) and speed (29.1 ft/sec sprint) is what I loved coming into the season, and it’s all coming together now. I admit I lost faith when times got tough, but in the end, he was who I thought he was.

James Wood WAS, OF, 22.0 – I was all in on Wood this off-season, ranking him a super high 68th overall on the Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings, and he has now elevated into an elite dynasty asset like I foresaw. He smashed 2 more homers yesterday at 109 MPH and 107.7 MPH to break a bit of a drought, giving him 7 homers in 66 games. He’s launch proof with a 92.6 MPH EV, but that one degree launch will have to come up to fully tap into his raw power, and I have zero doubts that it will. The K rate isn’t great at 28.9%, but a 29.7% whiff% isn’t bad, and both numbers are not really in the true danger zone. Those swing and miss numbers are encouraging to me long term. And finally the speed is legit too with 12 steals and a 28.6 ft/sec sprint (although he has been caught 7 times, which isn’t great). He already ranked 18th overall on the August Dynasty Rankings (Patreon). It feels like all of the hyped rookies have mostly hit the ground running, well, except for …

Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 20.9 – 0 for 1 and now has a .371 OPS with a 34.1/5.7 K%/BB% and 85.5 MPH EV in his last 88 PA. What are we going to do with you Jackson this off-season? We are going to be patient, but damn you are making it tough.

Coby Mayo BAL, 1B/3B, 22.9 – 0 for 2 with 2 K’s and I think we can now officially say that Mayo’s pro debut is a disaster. He has a negative 6 wRC+ with a .086 BA and 47.5% K%. I’m staying patient here too, but the Baby Birds tried to leave the nest to take their first flight, and they fell flat on their faces. Don’t sell low on either this off-season, but it’s not the debut we wanted to see.

Noelvi Marte CIN, 3B, 22.11 – 0 for 3 with 2 K’s as it hasn’t gotten better for Marte all season either. I tried to give him some benefit of the doubt to shake off the rust early, but all I see is more rust. It’s a straight disaster across the board with a 86.5 MPH EV (91.3 MPH in 2023) and 32.9/3.8 K%/BB% (20.3/6.9 in 2023). He even got slower with a 4.3 HP to 1B time in 2023 vs. a 4.43 time this year. To me, that indicates that maybe we have to take seriously the possibility that he actually was cheating, and it wasn’t just a case of trying to heal quicker or something like that. That is a drop off in power, speed, and plate approach. He almost can’t be worse next year, and he’s still young, so I’m definitely not writing him off, but I’m not targeting him this off-season either.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 1, 2023May 5, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/1/23)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 433 APRIL DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 324 APRIL PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (4/28/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
-PREDICTING THE 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECTS RANKS
-7 EARLY SEASON DYNASTY STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS

Carlos Jorge CIN, 2B, 19.7 – The little man discount is one of the most reliable discounts in prospecting, and there is a small army of little prospects ready to overthrow the Heightriarchy. The 5’10”, 160 pound Jorge is leading the charge after a huge day at the dish yesterday, going 4 for 7 with a double, homer, steal, and 0/1 K/BB in a doubleheader. He’s now slashing .323/.408/.532 with 2 homers, 5 steals, and a 25.4%/11.3% K%/BB% in 18 games at Single-A. He’s never put up a wRC+ under 151 or had an OBP under .400 in his 3 year career, but because he’s not 6’3”, he immediately gets discounted. Jose Ramirez, Mookie Betts, Wander Franco, Corbin Carroll, Cedric Mullins, Francisco Lindor, Randy Arozarena, Ozzie Albies, Jose Altuve, and many more have all proven you don’t have to be 6 feet or over to be an elite MLB player. Down with the Heightriarchy.

Luisangel Acuna TEX, SS/2B, 21.1 – Not even his older brother, Ronald, could protect Luisangel from the little guy bullying that he’s had to face his entire career on prospect lists. The 5’8” Acuna stole 3 bags yesterday, and he’s been handling his business at Double-A all year, slashing .319/.369/.436 with 1 homer, 10 steals, and a 20.2%/7.7% K%/BB% in 21 games. The power hasn’t come yet, but keeping that K rate in check is huge to see, and he’s a base stealing machine.

Jonatan Clase SEA, OF, 20.11 – The 5’9”, 150 pound Clase is trying to shatter that glass ceiling with Jorge and Acuna. He went 1 for 4 with a steal and 1/2 K/BB yesterday and is now slashing .337/.455/.723 with 7 homers, 16 steals, and a 26.7%/16.8% K%/BB% in 20 games at High-A. Acuna, Jorge, and Clase were all named targets for me this off-season because I don’t see height. Clase cracked my Top 100 in the Updated Top 324 Dynasty Prospects Rankings that dropped last week on my Patreon.

Termarr Johnson PIT, 2B/SS, 18.11 – The 5’8”, 175 pound Johnson actually did get the respect he deserved in prospect rankings, but I was actually a little skeptical of how good that hit tool really was, predicting in the Predicting the Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings that “Johnson’s hit tool at Single-A won’t be as good as the hype.” He went 1 for 3 with a 2/0 K/BB yesterday and now has a 41.2% K% and .214 BA in 5 games. It’s still a super super small sample, and I still love him even if I do think the hit tool was maybe a little overhyped, but the slow start does play into my fears from the off-season.

Harry Ford SEA, C, 20.1 – The 5’10” Ford might not be tall, but he is a built like a tank, and he’s hitting like a tank. He went 2 for 6 with a double yesterday and is now slashing .282/.453/.493 with 3 homers, 5 steals, and a 18.9%/23.2% K%/BB% in 19 games at High-A. This coming off his great WBC for Great Britain which nearly got him knighted. He’s splitting his time between catcher and DH, and at this point, I almost hope he gets moved off catcher to let his bat shine. He has the speed and athleticism to play elsewhere.

Adael Amador COL, SS, 20.1 – Amador feels like he is part of the little man brigade, but he actually checks in at 6’0” on the dot. He got a late start to the season, but he’s starting to cook after drilling his first 2 homers of the year at High-A in 11 games. His elite contact rates have transferred to the level with a 11.3% K%, and so has his speed with 4 steals, but his high walk rates haven’t yet with a 3.8% BB%. His 56.8% GB% is probably too high to ever be a true power hitter, but he’s a high probability big leaguer with a strong across the board profile.

Denzel Clarke OAK, OF, 23.0 – Forget everything I just said about height. Now this is what a ballplayer is supposed to look like at 6’5”, 220 pounds with towering power and elite athleticism. This is the scout’s dream. Clark debuted on April 25th at Double-A and has done nothing but rake. He homered yesterday on a 3 for 5 day and now has 4 homers with a 372 wRC+ in 4 games. Most importantly, the K rate has been solid with a 26.3%/15.8% K%/BB%. If he can maintain even a below average K rate, oh boy, because this is a huge man with huge talent and nothing but opportunity in Oakland, er, Las Vegas.

Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 22.0 – 1 IP, 5 hits, 8 ER, 2/2 K/BB at Triple-A. Tampa’s front office are either magic yogi’s who can see into the future and demoted Bradley before he could have this blow up in the majors. Or they are humans who undeservedly sent a kid down who was killing it in the majors, and being yanked around like that messed with his performance. I choose to believe it is the former.

Logan Allen CLE, LHP, 24.7 – 5 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 8/2 K/BB vs. BOS. The fastball sat 91.9 MPH and he induced tons of weak contact with a 85.9 EV against. Allen has pitched to ace levels in his MLB debut with a 2.45 ERA and 35.6%/6.7% K%/BB%, but there are signs he is pitching above his head. The 28.7% whiff% is not as big (although still good) and the 4.54 xERA is much higher than the ERA. He also didn’t display this level of control in his minor league career. Don’t get me wrong, it’s still a super encouraging MLB debut, but I wouldn’t expect him to keep it up to this level.

Nick Frasso LAD, RHP, 24.5 – 4 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 4/2 K/BB at Double-A. LA’s pitching logjam be damned, Frasso is one of my favorite pitching targets in the minors. He now has a 1.23 ERA with a 34.9%/5.8% K%/BB% in 22 IP. He has a nasty, plus 3 pitch mix and he’s like a lefty with a funky delivery, expect he throws righty, if you know what I mean. There is certainly risk he ends up in the pen because of circumstances, injury risk, and lack of innings in his career, but I just can’t ignore how high his upside is. I named him a target in my Top Dynasty Baseball Targets that dropped on Friday on the Patreon.

Rayne Doncon LAD, 2B/SS, 19.7 – Doncon went 4 for 4 with a double, steal, and a 430 foot bomb. He’s now getting into position to truly explode up rankings, slashing .262/.344/.464 with 5 homers, 2 steals, and a 25%/11.5% K%/BB% in 20 games. He has an explosive swing that screams big time power and has shown a good feel to hit his entire career. Now is the time to get in on him if you haven’t already.

Elijah Green WAS, OF, 19.4 – Elly 2.0 has arrived. Green smashed a homer in back to back games for his first 2 of the year to go along with 8 steals and a 48.1% K% in 17 games at Single-A. He’s even rawer than we expected, but the talent is so huge it’s worth being patient for the hit tool to come around.

Samuel Zavala SDP, OF, 18.9 – Zavala broke out of his early season slump in a huge way, going 4 for 5 with a homer and a steal. All of a sudden his wRC+ is up to 106 as an 18 year old in 18 games at Single-A. It’s also a reminder of how we are still in the small sample size part of the season. One big game can take a guy from struggling hard, to being an above average hitter overnight. He’s still the phenom we thought he was.

Cam Collier CIN, 3B, 18.5 – Speaking of 18 year olds performing above average in full season ball, Collier ripped his first homer at the level on a 2 for 8 day to bring his season wRC+ up to 116 in 14 games. The 26.7% K% is a tad higher than optimal, and so is his 58.6% GB%, so while he’s not going full breakout, he’s proving his FYPD hype was deserved.

Colin Barber HOU, OF, 22.4 – Just call him high cholesterol, because Barber is the quietest killer in the minor leagues. He cracked his 2nd homer in 15 games at Double-A to bring his season wRC+ up to 145. Also, just look at his man’s quads. If this was fantasy football twitter, our heads would be exploding.

Tyler Locklear SEA, 1B, 22.5 – Locklear was drafted 58th overall as a bat first prospect, and that bat is rolling right through the lower minors after he cracked 2 homers yesterday. He has 4 homers with a 21.%/9.6% K%/BB% and 146 wRC+ in 20 games at High-A. He’s played exclusively 1B this year, so the bat will have to hit it’s ceiling to get playing time in the majors. I think the bat is real, but I probably wouldn’t get too excited until he’s doing it in the upper minors.

Cayden Wallace KC, 3B, 21.9 – Wallace went 2 for 8 with a dinger last night, and he’s another moderately hyped 2nd round pick who is handling his business at High-A, slashing .306/.414/.542 with 3 homers, 3 steals, and a 20.7%/14.9% K%/BB% in 20 games. Again, doing it at High-A doesn’t truly explode their ranking, but they are trending up and they should get the chance to prove themselves at Double-A in the not too distant future.

Jonny DeLuca LAD, OF, 24.9 – DeLuca was one of the many big risers in the Updated Top 324 Prospect Rankings, and he’s not slowing down after going 3 for 5 with his 6th homer in 20 games at Double-A. He could be that next sneaky, older prospect that comes out of nowhere for the Dodgers.

Daylen Lile WAS, OF, 20.4 – The 47th overall pick in the 2021 Draft, Lile missed all of 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but I kept the faith on him just barely by ranking him 1,012 overall on the off-season Top 1,000. I also gave you a heads up that he looked pretty good in his spring debut. That faith has been rewarded after he went 3 for 5 with a homer yesterday. He’s now slashing .333/.409/.632 with 3 homers, 5 steals, and a 19.7%/10.6% K%/BB% in 14 games at Single-A. He’s 20 at Single-A, but we can give him a pass for that because of the missed development time. Now is probably the time to get in on him.

Darell Hernaiz OAK, SS/2B/3B, 21.8 – Oakland was happy to scoop Hernaiz off the back of the overstuffed middle infield prospect Orioles truck, and he’s delivering after going 3 for 5 with a dinger last night. He’s slashing .313/.366/.453 with 2 homers, 5 steals, and a 20.8%/8.3% K%/BB% as a 21 year old at Double-A. Oakland is the perfect spot for him with playing time galore available.

Kyle Harrison SFG, LHP, 21.8 – 3.2 IP, 0 hits, 1 ER, 7/4 K/BB at Triple-A. Harrison has more walks than innings pitched, and not by a little either with 21 walks in 15.2 IP. That is extreme to say the least. The stuff is so nasty it has still resulted in only a 4.02 ERA and 35.1% K%, and 15.2 IP is still a small sample. His value is dropping because the risk is getting even higher, but in general, he is a hold for me. Let’s see if he can work through these early season control problems, as he just needs to maintain below average control to thrive.

Carson Whisenhunt SFG, LHP, 22.5 – Whisenhunt got the call to High-A and was lights out, going 4 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB. The fastball was sitting in the mid 90’s and the changeup was nasty as usual. Here are the highlights from his start. The breaking ball can definitely look a little dinky, and it’s still the lower minors, but it could be time to start getting excited. He looks like a good one.

Tsung-Che Cheng PIT, SS, 21.10 – If feels fitting to end this Rundown like we started it, with the smallest prospect of them all standing at 5’7″, 154 pounds. But his production has been anything but small (never had a wRC+ under 129 in his 3 year career), and he’s officially killing it again after going 2 for 5 with a homer yesterday. Cheng is now slashing .275/.359/.551 with 4 homers, 7 steals, and a 19%/11.4% K%/BB% in 18 games at the age appropriate High-A. His power is ticking up this year which he combines with plus speed and a good feel to hit. He also plays a solid SS, which could get his bat on the field. He’s still more of a deeper league pickup, but he’s one to keep your eye on at least.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)