Cristian Hernandez – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on October 27, 2025November 6, 2025 by Michael Halpern · 2 Comments

Chicago Cubs 2026 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Off-season content is already in full swing on the Brick Wall! Like during the regular season, I will be posting a few articles a month for free here on Imaginary Brick Wall with the vast majority of the content over on the Patreon. We are deep into Dynasty Team Report season, while the first Sneak Peek of the 2026 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings hit last week. Deep Positional Rankings are also right around the corner. But first, here is the Chicago Cubs 2026 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

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Atlanta Braves—Arizona Diamondbacks—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Miami Marlins—New York Yankees (free)—Pittsburgh Pirates (free)—Texas Rangers

Hitters

Pete Crow-Armstrong – CHC, OF, 24.0 – Can we just enjoy the season Pete Crow had before we start bashing him for this 2nd half and Chase. I feel like the angry 1950’s dad at the dinner table yelling at his kids while the family is crumbling around him. You’re going to sit there and be quiet, enjoy this food, and thank your mother for her hard work. Don’t make me bust out the whooping stick. Pete Crow was almost definitely my biggest hit of 2025 (I’ve been the high guy since he was drafted), ranking him 64th overall, and writing in part, “Pete Crow Armstrong’s power has been underrated from the time he was drafted. And in 2024, especially the 2nd half of 2024, we started to see the first buds of a breakout that could absolutely explode in 2025. For starters, he put up a 88.9/94.0 MPH AVG/FB EV on the season, which shows that power potential I saw 4 years ago wasn’t a mirage. And when it comes with a 17.2 degree launch, an elite 30.0 ft/sec sprint speed, and elite CF defense, you have the makings of an extremely exciting fantasy player. Put some respect on this man’s name. His name is Pete Crow Armstrong, not Pete Crow Armweak.” … and then the true explosion came in 2025 with him upping his Hard Hit% 4.8 points to 41.6%, upping his Max EV 6 MPH to 113.2 MPH, upping his Barrel% 5.6 points to 13%, and upping his bat speed 2.1 MPH to 72.7 MPH. It resulted in 31 homers, and he combines the power explosion with elite speed (29.5 ft/sec sprint with 35 steals) and elite CF defense. This was the insanely fun fantasy player I foresaw, but of course things can never be easy, and Pete Crow had go out and end the season with a massive slump. He put up a .525 OPS in his final 50 games. He definitely got unlucky with a not too bad 25.9% K% and a .222 BABIP, but it for sure more than hints at the risk still present in this profile. And that risk is the way too high 41.7% Chase%. High chase adds a lot of volatility, and that isn’t just high chase, that is full danger zone high chase. If you want to be scared off, that is fair, and I completely get it, but if you’ve read my work at all over the years, you know I’m not running scared. His glove is going to keep him on the field, and even with a low BA, that power/speed combo is going to make a major impact. I’m also betting on the plate approach improving as he matures. Pete Crow has already paid off majorly if you’ve taken my advice over his career, and I’ll be happy to keep buying if people are scared off by the 2nd half. He ranked 21st overall on A Top 25 Sneak Peek of the 2026 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). – 2026 Projection: 86/28/88/.252/.308/.469/33

Matt Shaw – CHC, 3B, 24.5 – Matt Shaw unveils new batting stances like it’s a fashion show. I can’t wait to see what batting stance he’s going to unveil in the next spring collection. The anticipation is killing me. One week it’s your standard upright little man leg kick (this was my favorite one). The next week it’s your dark and brooding, super closed, hunched over, cartoonish leg kick. The next week it’s an open, bending over backwards, bat on his shoulder stance. And then the next week it’s a loose, bat waggling, toe tap swing. I’m not even joking at all. These are all the batting stances Shaw has used over the last 1-2 years, and I might have even missed some versions. It looks different every time you watch him. It’s almost impressive he can change stances this much on the fly and not completely crumble. I think it’s a good sign that he can make the adjustments necessary in the never ending cat and mouse game that is MLB baseball, and those adjustments paid off majorly in his rookie year. After struggling in the first half with a .556 OPS in 63 games, he turned it around post break, slashing .258/.317/.522 with 11 homers, 6 steals and a 23.9/8.3 K%/BB% in his final 63 games of the season. Even with the lackluster season overall (93 wRC+), he did a lot of things well. He can lift and pull with a 13.4 degree launch and 21.8% Air Pull%, he’s got plus speed with a 29 ft/sec sprint, he gets the bat on the ball with a 22.5% whiff%, he can get on base with a 8.7% BB%, and he played a solid 3B. He really only did one thing poorly, but that one thing is a big one, and it’s hit the ball hard. The 84.9 MPH EV and 29.4% Hard Hit% were super weak. They were better in the 2nd half (86.4 MPH EV and 32.4% Hard Hit%), but they still weren’t great, and they were bad in September again. The good news is that his profile can work without huge hard hit numbers (contact, speed, lift and pull), and looking at his minor league career, those numbers are almost certainly going to come way up as he gets more comfortable. He put up a 44.3% Hard Hit% in 24 games at Triple-A in 2025 and an 89.3 MPH EV at AAA in 2024. I’m betting on Shaw hitting the ball much harder in 2026, and if he does, he’s going to be an easy 20/20 guy with a solid BA. Shaw was my guy in the 2023 Draft like PCA was my guy in the 2020 Draft, and just like with PCA, I’m going to stay high through the ups and downs. – 2026 Projection: 78/19/69/.252/.331/.438/23 Prime Projection: 88/23/81/.266/.347/.459/26

Pitchers

Cade Horton – CHC, RHP, 24.7 – Horton was a pretty damn hyped pitching prospect who had an awesome rookie season with a 2.67 ERA in 118 IP, and nobody really seems to care. It’s because we are all looking at the same shit, and that shit is a weak 20.4/6.9 K%/BB% and weak ERA estimators (3.93 xERA, 4.27 xFIP, 4.26 SIERA), but you don’t have to dig all that much deeper to see there are things to be extremely excited about. For one, he was truly lights out post all star break with a 1.03 ERA in 61.1 IP, and the 23.5/6.5 K%/BB% over that time looks much prettier and closer to what we want to see. There is also clearly more strikeout upside in here with 2 whiff machine secondaries in his sweeper (36.8% whiff%) and changeup (47.8% whiff%). Displaying plus control with 2 bat missing secondaries and big velocity (95.7 MPH fastball) is a great foundation to build. The fastball probably got lucky with a .312 wOBA vs. .378 xwOBA, but we know the best pitchers tinker like crazy. He can throw the fastball less in favor of the secondaries, he can go to his lesser used sinker more, he can tinker with the 4-seamer pitch shape, etc … This is just the start to his career, and while I agree the mediocre K/BB can’t shoot him up into the young top of the rotation tier already, he’s in the tier right under that. – 2026 Projection: 11/3.64/1.19/139 in 150 IP

Shota Imanaga – CHC, LHP, 32.7 – Last year in these here Dynasty Team Reports I called Shota Imanaga my biggest miss of 2024, as I evaluated him as more of a solid mid rotation type than a true top of the rotation starter, and after his 2025 season, I feel a lot better about my original evaluation. He put up a 3.73 ERA, 4.21 xERA, and a 20.6/4.6 K%/BB% in 144.2 IP. I questioned how good the low 90’s fastball was going to be vs. MLB hitters, and it got hit up this year with a negative 10 Run Value and .396 xwOBA. The splitter was still really good, but not quite as dominant as 2024. I’m not trying to take back my walk of shame, as you still got the 2024 season if you drafted him, and I was still too low on him even if this is his true talent level. The 0.99 WHIP is elite, the walk rates are elite, and the 2nd half 24.3% K% is right in line with what he did in 2024 (25.1%). He’s not as good as he was in 2024 and he’s not as bad as he was in 2025, and even in 2025, he wasn’t bad at all. He’s a veteran starter with both a safe floor and upside. I would be happy to buy if his price dips too low. – 2026 Projection: 12/3.47/1.06/153 in 165 IP

Bullpen

Daniel Palencia – CHC, Closer, 26.2 – The Cubs could so easily sign a vet to take this job away from Palencia. I don’t think buying expensive bullpen pieces would be their optimal allocation of funds, that would be Kyle Tucker and the rotation, but if they whiff there, and if they have money burning a hole in their pockets, they could definitely pivot to buying an established closer. Palencia is good enough to take on that risk, but he wasn’t so good that I would be willing to pay huge for him before I was certain he was retaining the role. He broke out with a 2.91 ERA and 28.4/7.4 K%/BB% in 52.2 IP, securing the closer job in late May and not looking back with 22 saves. The heavily used 99.6 MPH fastball put up a +5 Run Value and the plus slider put up a 39.4% whiff%. He also has a good splitter that he rarely goes to. A big part of the breakout was due to improved control, and related to that, he doesn’t have a long track record of success even in the minors. Relievers pop up like this all the time, but along with risk he loses the job this off-season, there is still some regression risk here too. And he missed time with a shoulder strain towards the end of the season, which he returned from, but it is another risk to take into account. I like him a lot, but some caution is warranted until we see more of the off-season play out. – 2026 Projection: 4/3.46/1.19/69/28 saves in 60 IP

Chicago Cubs 2026 Top 10 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Prospects Rankings

1) Owen Caissie – CHC, OF, 23.9 – The toughest part of Caissie’s evaluation is figuring out his path to playing time. It doesn’t seem like Chicago is going to leave a spot open for him in 2026, but with Happ and Suzuki free agents after the 2026 season, I don’t see why he wouldn’t get a real shot in 2027 and beyond. Chicago has the money to keep signing vets to block him, and he’ll have competition in house too to win a long term job, so nothing is guaranteed. And the thing that can really stop him from being given that full time job with a long leash is that the hit tool is a major concern. It immediately got exposed in the majors with a 40.7% K% and 39.7% whiff% in 27 PA, and while it was in a super small sample and with sporadic playing time, it’s still not exactly great to see. His strikeout rates have been very high in the minors too with K rates in the high 20’s his entire career. We’ve seen hit tool risk sluggers like him need a long leash to reach their ultimate power hitting beast destiny, and not every team is will to give them that long leash. His power upside is worth that risk though with 22 homers, a 92.1 MPH EV, and a 53.4% Hard Hit% in 99 games at Triple-A. The 74.8 MPH swing was great to see in his debut. The dude is going to mash if given the chance, the only question is when he’s going to get that chance, and how long of a hit tool adjustment period there is going to be. – 2026 Projection: 26/10/33/.229/.304/.430/3 Prime Projection: 79/28/89/.248/.335/.473/7

2) Ethan Conrad – CHC, OF, 21.9 – If there is one guy in this FYPD class that really makes me tingle. The guy who I would hate to leave the draft without. The guy I want to say is my guy, it’s Ethan Conrad (Kilby is a close 2nd). He can so easily become the best fantasy player in this draft, and that isn’t even close to a stretch. He’s 6’3”, 220 pounds, and I’m in love with his lefty swing. It’s loose, athletic, upright, and then he absolutely unfurls on the baseball like a big cat striking it’s prey. He was in the midst of a junior year power explosion with 7 homers in 21 games in the ACC before hurting shoulder diving for a ball which required surgery to repair. But you know I’ve been loving the shoulder surgery discount with so many hitters coming back completely fine, and obviously the Cubs thought the same thing stealing him at 17th overall in the Draft. Not only is the power no joke, but he’s fast and he loves to run with 77 steals in 88 attempts in 200 amateur games. He’s also hit extremely well everywhere he’s been since his freshman year. He had a .813 OPS in 200 PA his freshman year in the MAAC, he topped that his sophomore year in the MAC with a 1.171 OPS in 259 PA, he then went to the Cape and put up a .920 OPS in 120 PA, and then he transferred into the ACC and dropped a 1.238 OPS in 21 games. He’s literally never not hit, and his contact rates have always been pretty damn good too with a 14.4% K% this year, a 15% K% in the Cape and a 12.4% K% his sophomore year in the MAAC. He’s had some chase issues throughout this career, he’s yet to really face super tough competition as he was just getting into the meat of his ACC schedule before getting hurt, and I guess there is some risk coming off the shoulder surgery, but all of that just looks like it opens up a giant buying opportunity to me. Conrad is the guy I’m really targeting in this draft. He ranked 4th overall in the End of Season Top 60 2026 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon). – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 83/24/88/.262/.324/.461/21

3) Jaxon Wiggins – CHC, RHP, 24.6 – A pitching prospect like Wiggins is why you don’t have to pay up for the already extremely expensive, universally highly ranked elite pitching prospects, and also why you don’t have to dip into the hyped teenage lottery ticket bucket of pitching prospects. Every year there are quite a few truly beastly, huge stuff, huge upside, huge K rate pitching prospects who are in the upper minors and who don’t get all that much hype where you are going to have to pay up majorly for them in an off-season prospect draft. And if a few of them go earlier than you think, there are plenty more to choose from. I talked about this “flaw” in prospect rankings in an earlier team report, and Wiggins highlights this perfectly. He’s 6’6” with a double plus upper 90’s fastball that has good shape and misses a ton of bats. He combines the heat with a plus, bat missing slider, and the lesser used changeup is a really good pitch too when he goes to it. It resulted in a 2.19 ERA with a 31.0/11.5 K%/BB% in 78 IP at mostly Double-A. Sure there is risk, which we will get to, but every pitching prospect has risk. I would much rather take the inherent risk of a pitching prospect later in the draft than passing up elite hitting prospects for an already hyped to death pitching prospect earlier in the draft. The risk is that he has below average control, he needs to keep working on the changeup, and there is injury risk too, as 78 IP is his career high (he missed time with a shoulder injury this year). But he’s the type to get the redraft guys in a tizzy when they finally discover who he is in spring training, and ponder why this guy didn’t get more prospect hype. Wiggins is one of the top pitching prospect targets this off-season. – 2026 Projection: 4/3.89/1.31/83 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.55/1.22/170 in 150 IP

4) Moises Ballesteros – CHC, C, 22.5 – Ballesteros had the type of MLB debut that I love to see, just immediately proving the profile will transfer, slashing .298/.394/.474 with 2 homers, an 89.1 MPH EV, a .342 xwOBA, and a 18.2/13.6 K%/BB% in 20 games. The dude has been a precocious hitter since stepping on a pro field in the DSL in 2017, and he’s just kept on hitting every single year and at every higher level, now including the majors. This is a bat you want to bet on, regardless of the warts, but there are some concerning warts. Most notably, he’s not a good defensive catcher, putting his ultimate defensive home in question, and putting major pressure on the bat. He doesn’t lift and pull with a 0.9 degree launch and 4.4% Air Pull% in the majors (9 degree launch and 9.6% Air Pull% at AAA). He’s super slow with a bottom 17% of the league sprint. And he was bad vs lefties at AAA with a .577 OPS. If he ends up a short side of a platoon DH that doesn’t hit a ton of homers, that is super weak for fantasy. But if he plays in 120+ games with catcher eligibility and an Alejandro Kirk like offensive profile, that ain’t bad at all. I’m actually getting more discouraged by him as I’m writing this blurb and listing out his negatives but all this guy has even done is hit, so I can’t fade him too much. – 2026 Projection: 31/8/36/.269/.310/.403/1 Prime Projection: 66/18/79/.283/.334/.435/3

5) Jefferson Rojas – CHC, SS/2B, 20.11 – I always put Rojas in the better real life than fantasy prospect bucket, and that is still the bucket I have him in. He has a good middle infield glove and he has a good feel to hit, which is as safe as a real life prospect gets, but he doesn’t have the tools to get me excited for fantasy with an average power/speed combo. To his credit, he bounced back in a major way coming off a down 2024, slashing .278/.379/.492 with 11 homers, 14 steals, and a 15.7/12.7 K%/BB% in 67 games at High-A, but he fell off a cliff when he got to Double-A with a 54 wRC+ in 39 games. He was only 20 years old, so the High-A numbers mean more to me, but I do think it hints at the subdued upside as he starts facing better competition. Solid prospect, but not a high upside fantasy prospect. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 81/17/66/.271/.334/.419/19

6) Kevin Alcantara – CHC, OF, 23.8 – Alcantara has been such an intriguing fantasy prospect for several years now with raw upside to dream on at a projectable 6’6” with hard hit ability and plus speed, but he still hasn’t put it together. He had a decent year at Triple-A with a 109 wRC+ in 102 games, but it came with a 30.5% whiff% and 29.8% K%, he stole only 10 bags, and he didn’t lift and pull with a 9 degree launch and 12.7% Air Pull%. The 90.4 MPH EV and 45% Hard Hit% are good, but they aren’t so good where you can just ignore everything else. He’s simply still too raw. And he’s blocked in Chicago. He seems like the exact type to take a shot on when he’s like 27 years old on his 2nd team and starting to refine his hit tool enough to let his other tools shine. He’s got a good CF glove, so the glove should help him get on the field when the bat does potentially get refined enough. But in the near term, it’s hard to really keep targeting him. A trade would do wonders for his fantasy value. – 2026 Projection: 18/4/23/.227/.289/.378/2 Prime Projection: 67/20/74/.246/.318/.427/18

7) Jonathon Long – CHI, 1B, 24.2 – I really like Long’s bat. I’ve actually really liked Long’s bat since I called him a deep league sleeper as a 9th round pick in his 2023 Draft year, but unfortunately, when you are a 1B only prospect, really liking a prospects bat isn’t enough. You have to think it’s going to be one of the better bats in MLB to bet on them securing a full time job, and I can’t say that about Long. The biggest issue for me is that he didn’t lift and pull a ton at AAA with a 10 degree launch and 10.5% Air Pull%. He still hit 20 homers in 140 games, and he hits the ball really hard with a 90.9 MPH EV and 47.1% Hard Hit%, but if we need to bet on his bat exploding so hard and quickly in the majors to win a 1B/DH job, I would optimally want to see more lift and pull. The plate skills are strong with a 19.1/13.0 K%/BB%, so he’s not just a home run or nothing guy, but again, at 1B, a solid above average bat with good but not great homer totals just might not be enough. Especially in Chicago where Michael Busch is locked at 1B and they have plenty of other DH options both short and long term. If he were on another team, I could see ranking him higher, but until he’s on that other team, this is as high as I can go. – 2026 Projection: 14/3/15/.247/.308/.407/0 Prime Projection: 74/22/79/.265/.330/.453/2

8) Kane Kepley – CHC, OF, 22.2 – Selected 56th overall in the 2025 MLB Draft, Kepley had one of the best pro debuts in the class, and you know I love me a good pro debut. He slashed .299/.481/.433 with 2 homers, 16 steals, and a 11.5/19.1 K%/BB% in 28 games at Single-A. It’s the same thing he did after transferring into the ACC his junior year with a 7.1/14.2 K%/BB%, 3 homers, and 45 steals in 61 games. The plate skills are excellent, he’s a great base stealer with plus speed, and most importantly for this type of profile, he has a good CF glove. A guy with a good glove in CF, excellent contact rates/approach, and speed is going to make an impact in both real life and fantasy if he gets on the field. He’s not a big guy at 5’8”, 180 pounds, and he’s doesn’t much raw power, so the risk is that he tops out as a 4th outfielder. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 76/10/53/.271/.332/.378/28

9) Josiah Hartshorn – CHC, OF, 19.2 – Hartshorn was selected 181st overall in the 2025 MLB Draft, but his $2 million signing bonus shows you the type of talent he has. He’s an already built up 6’2”, 220 pounds with easy plus raw power potential and a good approach at the plate. He’s a switch hitter, but injuries (elbow and back) have prevented him from actually hitting from both sides at the same time very often, sometimes only hitting righty and sometimes only hitting lefty, so there is a definitely a rawness there that you can either look at as a good thing (plenty of room for refinement) or a bad thing (risk). He’s a solid athlete but he’s not a burner and he looks a bit lumbering out there on the bases, so I don’t think steals are going to be a major part of his game. You are betting on the size, power and approach here, but plenty more refinement is needed. There is a reason he slipped so far in the draft despite the high signing bonus. – ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 72/23/78/.258/.327/.441/8

10) Cristian Hernandez – CHC, SS, 22.3 – The big talent that made Hernandez the top international signing in his class is still here at an uber athletic 6’2” with an electric swing, raw power, and plus speed, but his pro career has been a struggle. Credit to him for righting the ship after it bottomed out in 2022 and 2023, but it just feels like so much work has gone into him just being a mediocre bat in the lower minors. He was a 21 year old at High-A and he put up a 97 wRC+ with a .252/.329/.365 triple slash. Granted, we saw a lot of 21 year old college bats step into the lower minors and put up some mediocre lines too, so maybe I’m being harsh, but that might say more about the 2025 college class than it does about Hernandez. The good news is that the 20.7/10.5 K%/BB% is solid, the SS glove is solid, and the fantasy upside is in here with 52 steals. The power upside is there too, but he hit only 7 homers with a 47.1% GB% in 115 games, so he doesn’t seem that close to tapping into it. He’s a mid 20’s breakout candidate at best, and it’s possible he drops like a stone once he starts seeing advanced pitching in the upper minors. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 67/14/61/.243/.312/.413/22

Just Missed

11) James Triantos – CHC, 2B, 23.2

12) Pedro Ramirez – CHC, 2B/3B, 22.0

13) Juan Cabada – CHC, 2B/3B, 17.11

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Way, way back in October of last year, I went where no man had gone before, deep into the bat speed leaderboards to see if we could glean any sleepers from them, and it was immediately obvious that there was a treasure trove of value to be pulled from there. Seriously, bat speed was not really being talked about or used that much (or nearly at all if my memory serves me right) as it was relatively new to Statcast. As the off-season went along, people jumped on the bat speed bandwagon, and at this point it is very obvious that bat speed is a tremendously valuable tool to use in your player evaluation. I had a ton of target hits using bat speed like Tyler Soderstrom, Jo Adell, Junior Caminero (less a target and more just staying super high on him), Spencer Torkelson, and Addison Barger. Hunter Goodman I didn’t call a target because I was worried about his glove, but I did name him as a bat speed standout and worth going after for that alone. There were misses too like Oneil Cruz and Jordan Walker, but I’m less interested in focusing on the guys with huge bat speed this off-season, and more interested in how many guys were able to improve their bat speed year to year. I closed out my thoughts on bat speed last year by writing, “Guys who “swing for the fences” are going to swing faster, hit for more power, and strikeout more. Guys who swing slower are going to make more contact, but not hit for as much power. So I don’t think bat speed is necessarily a completely sticky thing if a player decides to change his approach to hit for more power or contact. We’ll have to keep an eye on this in future years as we continue to build on this data to see how often that happens exactly, and how often it’s successful. Really cool to have this data at our fingertips now.”

And as we saw with PCA, bat speed can definitely be improved very quickly, and it can result in the power explosion we want. Meaning, we shouldn’t just automatically cap a player’s power upside if they come up and don’t immediately swing a fast bat. PCA improved his bat speed by 2.1 MPH and went from 10 homers to 31 homers. Brice Turang was the #1 bat speed riser in baseball, raising it 4.5 MPH, and he went from 7 homers to 18 homers. Anthony Volpe was the 2nd biggest riser at 3.3 MPH, and while he didn’t have a great year, he did go from 12 homers to 19 homers. Sal Frelick raised it 1.9 MPH, going from 2 homers to 12 homers. Geraldo Perdomo raised it 1.4 MPH, going from a career high of 6 homer to 20 homers. Maikel Garcia raised it 1.1 MPH, going from 7 homers to 16 homers. There are more power breakouts up and down the bat speed risers list. While you can’t solely contribute bat speed to all of the power breakouts, it is clearly a major reason. And the takeaway for me here is what I suspected last off-season, which is that guys can improve their bat speed considerably year to year. It’s why I’m not panicked over Matt Shaw’s below average 69.6 MPH swing. My bet is that rises in 2025, just like it did with PCA this year. So while bat speed is certainly a major tool to use, I would caution about putting too much emphasis on it, especially for younger players who are still getting comfortable vs. MLB pitching. It is not a power death sentence to swing a slower bat, as the skill can very obviously be improved, and be improved in a major way year to year.

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

Posted on June 6, 2022June 6, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (6/6/22)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (6/6/22):

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-UPDATED JUNE 2022 TOP 350 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
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Emmanuel Rodriguez MIN, OF, 19.4 – 1 for 2 with a homer, 2 walks and 0 K’s. Baby Bonds has more walks than strikeouts with a 51/54 K/BB in 45 games at Single-A, and his 1.063 OPS is far and away the best OPS in the FSL (the underrated Gabriel Martinez is 2nd at .883). Rodriguez still doesn’t get nearly the respect he deserves, and is already a Top 100 Prospect for me, checking in at #90 on my Top 350 June Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings that hit my Patreon last week.

Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 18.3 – Chourio has a legitimate shot to be the next big thing. He’s a tooled up 18-year-old who is beating up on older competition in full season ball, muscling out his 4th homer of the year yesterday. He’s slashing .371/.417/.595 with 4 homers, 3 steals, and a 26.0%/7.9% K%/BB% in 27 games at Single-A.

Logan O’Hoppe PHI, C, 22.3 – O’Hoppe homered for the 3rd time in 4 games at Double-A. He now has 11 homers with a .997 OPS and 15.6%/11.8% K%/BB% in 44 games. The hype has really started to percolate on him. Here’s what I wrote about O’Hoppe in my off-season, February 10th Hitters to Target (Patreon) writeup, “Easily the most underrated catcher in the minors. He’s a lock to stick behind the plate with plus raw power and plus contact rates.” Let the record show that the aforementioned Chourio was also included in that off-season Target Series.

DL Hall BAL, LHP, 23.8 – 5 IP, 2 hits, 2 ER, 9/2 K/BB at Triple-A. Isn’t Grayson just the perfect child with his pristine walk rates, diverse pitch mix, and trendy first name, but now he’s out until September with a lat injury, and it’s time for the wild child to take centerstage. Yea, Hall’s control isn’t that great, and yea, he’s not 6’5” 220 pounds, but he’s ready to shine for all of the kids out there who grew up in their sibling’s shadow. And no, I’m definitely not projecting at all! 😉

Cole Henry WASH, RHP, 22.11 – Henry made his Triple-A debut and went 5 IP with 3 hits, 0 ER, and a 3/1 K/BB. He’s 6’4”, 215 pounds with some legitimately filthy stuff. He made Gabriel Moreno and his plus hit tool look silly on a first inning K.

Ezequiel Duran TEX, 2B/SS, 23.0 – I ranked Duran 39th overall in last week’s Top 350 June Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings and wrote, “Quickly becoming one of my favorite prospects with 7 homers, 7 steals, and a 17% K% in 41 games at Double-A. He also passes the “eye test” as he’s an explosive player and the ball explodes off his bat. 6.6% BB% shows he’s still a little too aggressive at the plate.” He has since got the call to the bigs and showed that explosiveness, drilling a 402 foot dinger off a 99.5 MPH Andres Munoz fastball. This dude can be a true difference maker.

Alejandro Kirk TOR, C, 23.7 – The inevitable Kirk breakout has finally arrived with him hitting a 416 foot blast for his 4th homer in 5 games. His underlying numbers are straight elite with a 8.6%/12.3% K%/BB% and a .393 xwOBA. Gabriel Moreno keeps getting more and more blocked.

Brendan Rodgers COL, 2B, 25.10 – 3 for 5 with a double and a homer. Rodgers has been red hot since May began, slashing .344/.380/.566 with 6 homers and a 20/6 K/BB in 30 games. The underlying numbers still aren’t all the great on the season with a 3.5 degree launch angle and .313 xwOBA, but if you’ve been holding strong on Rodgers for the last several years, this is your time.

Alex Kirilloff MIN, 1B/OF, 24.4 – 2 for 5 with 2 homers and now has 4 homers in his last 3 games at Triple-A. The wrist must be feeling A-OK as he’s utterly destroying Triple-A with a 1.050 OPS in 26 games. He’s back on track to become one the top young hit/power combo hitters in the game.

Bryson Stott PHI, SS, 24.8 – Stott is heating up, walloping his 2nd MLB homer and now has a 1.122 OPS in his last 5 games. An 84.1 MPH EV is still horrific, but a 24.3% whiff% and 16.7 degree launch angle is forming a nice foundation if he can keep hitting the ball harder.

Shane Baz TBR, RHP, 22.11 – 10/1 K/BB in 4.1 IP at Triple-A. Ummmm … I think it’s safe to say the rust has been shaken off. I can’t imagine it’s that much longer before he gets recalled.

Jakob Junis SFG, RHP, 29.9 – 6 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 8/2 K/BB vs. Miami. He has a 2.51 ERA in 43 IP, but I’m not sure I’m really buying in. A 23.9% whiff% overall is mediocre and his slider is only putting up a 26.8% whiff%. The sinker sits 91.1 MPH. I trust the 3.96 xERA more, which is still a step forward from where he’s been in his career prior to this year.

Martin Perez TEX, LHP, 31.2 – 6 IP, 7 hits, 2 ER, 7/2 K/BB vs. Seattle. 20.7% K%, 5.9% BB% and 2.6% barrel% are all career bests. This isn’t exactly an in your face breakout, more of a doing a little bit of everything better breakout. My gut says this will be hard to maintain, and I surely wouldn’t want to pay up big for him in a trade, but if I owned him (I don’t) I would be enjoying the hell out of the ride while it lasts.

Mike Trout LAA, OF, 30.10 – 29.4 ft/sec sprint speed is a 5 year high and nearly a career high, and yet he hasn’t attempted a single steal. Even with him absolutely mashing he’s still ranked only 24th on the Razzball Player Rater. That, plus his age, is why I find it hard to rank him over 14th overall on my Top 433 May Dynasty Baseball Rankings.

Spencer Steer MIN, SS, 24.6 – Steer went nuclear yesterday, cracking 3 homers. He now has 6 homers with an 11/6 K/BB in 13 games since getting the call to Triple-A. I see some Alex Bregman in his game and a little Brian Dozier too. Not saying he’ll be as good as those guys, but I’m buying in.

Colin Barber HOU, OF, 21.4 – Barber has quietly been having an excellent season, but it got a whole lot louder after going deep twice yesterday. He has a 17.4%/12.8% K%/BB% with a .956 OPS in 37 games at High-A. He’s ridiculously underrated.

Ian Lewis MIA, 2B, 19.4 – Lewis got a late start to the season, but it didn’t take him long to prove his skills will translate to full season ball. He drilled his 2nd homer of the year and has a .864 OPS with a 18.3% K% and 2 steals in 20 games at Single-A. His stock is rising.

Sal Frelick MIL, OF, 22.2 – Frelick got ahold of his first homer in 19 games since getting called up to Double-A. It’s just his 3rd homer in 41 games on the season, but it comes with 9 steals and a 14.6%/10.8% K%/BB%. I will say I’m a little concerned with how much his value will be tied to stolen bases. He’s been caught 4 times this year, and we’ve seen guys like Nick Madrigal not run at all. If the steal totals are mediocre on the MLB level, the upside really isn’t there.

Noelvi Marte SEA, SS, 20.7 – 2 for 4 with his 5th homer in 46 games at High-A. People are starting to sour on Marte with a mediocre .732 OPS, but I think it’s mostly due to poor HR/FB luck. 24.9%/10.8% K%/BB% with a 40.7% GB% tells me a homer binge is likely coming down the pike. If you’re a rebuilding team, now could be a good time to buy low if he’s sitting on the roster of a contender.

Angel Martinez CLE, 2B/3B/SS, 20.2 – Martinez went 3 for 5 with a double and 2 homers at High-A (3 homers in 34 games). The power is big to see because the plate approach (19.7%/13.6% K%/BB%) and speed (7 steals) are both there, so developing some legitimate power will take him to the next level.

Andres Gimenez CLE, 2B/SS, 23.9 – The power breakout is holding up with Gimenez smacking a 105.9 MPH dinger for his 3rd homer in his last 5 games in the majors. His 89.9 MPH EV is up 3.6 MPH from last year. He feels like he’s been around forever, but he’s only 23 years old, and he’s lightning fast with a 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed. 2.8% BB% isn’t great, but there is very real upside here in a 5×5 BA league especially.

Cal Mitchell PIT, OF, 23.4 – Mitchell rocked his first MLB homer off Zac Gallen. It’s nice to see the above average K rates transferring to the majors with a 18.4% K%, but there doesn’t seem to be much upside here with a 3.5 degree launch angle and 26.2 ft/sec sprint speed. His groundball rates were high at Triple-A too. He’s getting his shot and can certainly be solid, but not sure he’s going to be a difference maker.

Jack Suwinski PIT, OF, 23.10 – Between Mitchell and Suwinski, I think I prefer Suwinski, but it’s close. He went 3 for 4 with 2 doubles at 108.9 and 107.5 MPH. He’s kept the K% in check in the majors with a 25.6% K%, and he has some speed (28.5 ft/sec sprint speed) and some pop (6 homers in 34 games).

Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 20.2 – Pete Crow got the call to High-A last week and it didn’t take long for him to get acclimated, cracking his first homer at the level to the deepest part of the ballpark. He has 8 homers in 43 games overall. He never got enough credit for his power potential, and he’s now leaving no doubt there is legitimate juice in his bat. I predicted the power breakout in my off-season Predicting the 2023 Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects (Patreon), but I also predicted that Luis Matos would go 20/20, so it’s a give and take.

Marcus Semien TEX, SS/2B 31.8 – 2 for 5 with a dinger, and now has 3 homers, 4 steals, and a .822 OPS in his last 10 games. We have a pulse.

Cristian Hernandez CHC, SS, 18.6 – Rookie Ball starts today. Can’t wait to start digging for the next group of breakouts.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on December 13, 2021March 4, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Chicago Cubs 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys and talk some team specific strategy for every team to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Chicago Cubs 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
–A Top 200 Sneak Peek of my 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings with more early releases coming all off-season
-Dynasty Team Reports for every team (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
–Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Top 56 Catchers/Top 76 1B/Top 81 2B are up now)
-End of Season 2021 Top 466 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
-End of Season 2021 Top 322 Dynasty Prospects Rankings

Hitters

Ian Happ CHC, OF, 27.8 – Happ couldn’t hit his way out of a paper bag (grumpy high school baseball coach idioms are my favorite) all the way through August 15th with a triple-slash of .176/.284/.321 in 368 PA, and he couldn’t run his way out of said bag either with 1 steal in 2 attempts. But from then on he ripped that damn bag to shreds, slashing .333/.407/.680 with 13 homers, 8 steals, and a 41/17 K/BB in 167 PA. He brought his K% down to a more reasonable 24.6%, he started lifting the ball more, and he ran more than he has since 2018. The stolen bases are the true X factor for his value going forward, because with a 32.3% whiff% he’s not going to hit for a high average, and while he hits the ball hard, a 46% GB% caps his power upside a bit. 27 years old was always the classic age for a breakout season, and maybe Happ’s last month and a half surge was foreshadowing what is to come. I’m willing to take that shot. 2022 Projection: 78/28/84/.245/.341/.475/7

Frank Schwindel CHC, 1B, 29.9 – Schwindel’s been raking in the minor leagues since 2012, he just needed someone to give him his chance. Chicago gave him that chance and he took advantage of it, slashing .342/.389/.613 with 13 homers and a 36/16 K/BB in 56 games. He’s had plus contact rates with plus power his entire career, and that carried over into the majors. There are some red flags however. His 86.9/91.5 MPH AVG/FB EV is well below average, and so is his 6.2% BB%. He doesn’t currently have any competition for the job, but I’m concerned about his playing time long term. He ranked 40th on my Top 76 Dynasty First Base Rankings. 2022 Projection: 67/24/79/.267/.318/.462/1

Patrick Wisdom CHC, 3B/OF, 30.7 – Wisdom was cracking eggs of knowledge all over everyone’s faces (shoutout Always Sunny fans), putting up near elite hard hit numbers with a 15.7% Barrel% (top 9%), 96.2 MPH FB/LD EV, 114.2 MPH Max EV (top 8%), and a 51.6% HardHit% (top 8%). It led to 28 homers in 106 games. He’s mashed his entire career going back to his freshman year at St. Mary’s in 2011, so the power is for real. He’s also struck out a lot in his career, and the K’s ballooned in 2021 with a 41.3% whiff% and 40.8% K%. He’s going to hit homers, but there is a real chance he also hits under the Mendoza Line. 2022 Projection: 64/26/75/.208/.298/.447/6

Starting Pitchers

Marcus Stroman CHC, RHP, 30.11 – Stroman’s been doing a lot of chirping on Twitter recently, but he’s backed up the trash talk with production. He put up a pitching line of 3.02/1.15/158/44 in 179 IP. He keeps the ball on the ground with a 91.9 MPH sinker and with a worm killing splitter that he added this season. He’s been slowly improving his strikeout rates throughout his career, and it reached a career best 21.7% K% in 2021, although that is still below average. He’s a better real life pitcher than fantasy one because of the strikeout numbers, but maybe the trend will hold and he will continue to unlock more K’s in the future. 2022 Projection: 11/3.54/1.26/161 in 180 IP

Adbert Alzolay CHC, RHP, 27.1 – Alzolay threw his relatively new slider more than ever in 2021 (39.8% usage), and it proved to be an excellent pitch with a 37.4% whiff% and .256 xwOBA. He combines that with a groundball inducing 93.8 MPH sinker and a 94 MPH fastball that put up a very respectable 26.8% whiff% (he also mixes in a changeup, cutter, and curveball). The K/BB numbers were excellent with a 128/34 K/BB in 125.2 IP. He finished the season in the pen during September, but he’s expected to win a rotation spot back in 2022. I’m definitely going to be grabbing him in a lot of places to fill out of the back of my rotation. 2022 Projection: 9/4.14/1.28/156 in 150 IP

Chicago Cubs Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects

1) Brennen Davis CHC, OF, 22.5 – Davis is 6’4”, 210 pounds with easy power and no problems keeping the ball off the ground. He smacked 19 homers in 99 games split across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). Like many guys this tall, he has some strikeout issues with a 28.7% K%, and while he will definitely chip in with steals, he went 6 for 10 in 76 Double-A games and he didn’t attempt a steal in 15 Triple-A games. The upside is very high, but there is still some risk here too. 2022 Projection: 48/17/55/.242/.313/.441/7 Prime Projection: 88/33/99/.261/.338/.510/11

2) Cristian Hernandez CHC, SS, 18.4 – Hernandez was my #1 international prospect heading into 2021, and he lived up to the hype in his pro debut, slashing .285/.398/.424 with 5 homers, 21 steals, and a 20.4%/15.7% K%/BB% in 47 games in the DSL. I fell in love with his explosive swing from Youtube videos, and at 6’2”, 175 pounds, he’s a good bet to grow into plus power, although he will have to raise his 56.5% GB% to get to all it (he has plenty of time to do that). He also has plus speed and showed a very mature approach at the plate. He has star upside. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 88/26/88/.274/.353/.483/16

3) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 20.0 – Armstrong was my favorite target in last year’s first year player drafts, ranking him 7th overall, and he got off to a glorious start with 10 hits in his first 24 at bats, but it all came to a screeching halt when he tore his labrum (shoulder), which required season ending surgery. He’s already back in the batting cages, so he should be good to go for 2022. He has a plus hit, speed, and a defense profile, but I think there is more power in the tank than he is getting credit for. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 91/16/66/.278/.355/.434/22

4) Kevin Alcantara CHC, OF, 19.9 – Alcantara is 6’6”, 188 pounds and has potential written all over him. He is an excellent athlete with plenty of room on his frame to fill out and end up with at least plus power at peak. There is some swing and miss to his game, but it’s not expected to be an extreme problem. He showed out in rookie ball this year, slashing .345/.423/.588 with 5 homers, 5 steals, and a 26.1%/12.3% K%/BB% in 34 games. He’s a great high upside shot to take, and his price should remain very reasonable this off-season. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/27/85/.250/.325/.473/11

5) Reginald Preciado CHC, SS, 18.11 – Preciado is a sinewy and projectable 6’4”, 185 pounds, and he got off to a strong start in his pro career, slashing .333/.383/.511 with 3 homers, 7 steals, and a 22.7%/7.1% K%/BB% in 34 games in rookie ball. He’s a switch hitter with a quick and simple swing that is geared for both power and average. While he stole 7 bags, he’s not a burner and will likely be more of a power hitter as he ages. He will still be 18 years old when the 2022 season starts. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/25/83/.267/.332/.472/7

6) Owen Caissie CHC, OF, 19.9 – Caissie is a 6’4”, 190 pound lefty masher who looks a bit like Joey Gallo at the dish. He performed a bit like Joey Gallo at the dish too with a 29.6%/18.6% K%/BB% to go along with 7 homers in 54 games split between rookie ball and Single-A. He decimated rookie ball with a 179 wRC+ in 32 games, but when he got to the more age appropriate Single-A, his numbers took a dive (.695 OPS). He’s your classic power and patience slugger who gets a big boost in OBP leagues. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 81/29/85/.243/.335/.486/2

7) James Triantos CHC, 2B/SS, 19.2 – Selected 56th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Triantos had an eye opening pro debut, slashing .327/.376/.594 with 6 homers, 3 steals, and a 16.5%/6.4% K%/BB% in 25 games in rookie ball. He has a textbook righty swing and a great feel to hit. He doesn’t project for huge power, but he should be able to get to all of the power he has through quality of contact. The hype has started to percolate for him, but he should still come at a good value in off-season drafts. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 85/23/78/.283/.341/.462/6

8) Brailyn Marquez CHC, LHP, 23.2 – It was a lost season for Marquez as he never got on the mound in 2021 due to getting Covid in the spring and then suffering a shoulder strain when he was ramping back up. The stuff is too nasty to just forget about though with an upper 90’s fastball, plus slider, and a changeup that supposedly showed improvement at the alt site in 2020. He needs to improve his control and the shoulder injury adds more risk, but I still love taking a shot on his upside. 2022 Projection: 4/4.15/1.33/76 in 70 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.76/1.29/175 in 155 IP

9) DJ Herz CHC, LHP, 21.3 – Herz has a bit of a funky lefty delivery which always wrecks havoc on hitter’s ability to pick up pitches. It can add some injury risk and control problems (4.8 BB/9), so it’s a give and take. He used that delivery to fire 3 potentially plus pitches in his mid 90’s fastball, curve, and changeup. The stuff is nasty and it led to a pitching line of 3.31/1.05/131/41 in 81.2 IP split between Single-A and High-A. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 11/3.76/1.28/180 in 160 IP

10) Nelson Velazquez CHC, OF, 23.3 – Velazquez put on a show at the Arizona Fall League, slashing .385/.480/.712 with 9 homers and a 27.6%/13.8% K%/BB% in 26 games. This coming off his destruction of Double-A with a .938 OPS in 34 games. He didn’t fair as well at High-A (.776 OPS with a 33.7% K%), but he was still hitting for power with 12 homers in 69 games. He rips the ball extremely hard and he has some speed too with 17 steals in 19 attempts in 103 games. The plate approach still needs refinement and there is hit tool risk, but he has very fantasy friendly upside. 2022 Projection: Prime Projection: 74/26/83/.247/.321/.478/8

11) Jordan Wicks CHC, LHP, 22.7 – Selected 21st overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Wicks is a safe pick that is more appealing the deeper the league is. His money maker is a double plus changeup that he relies on heavily. The fastball sits in the low 90’s and he has two average-ish breaking balls with his slider being the better of the two pitches. He had a pitching line of 3.70/1.28/118/28 in 92.1 IP in the Big 12, so while that is solid, he hasn’t exactly been lights out. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 11/4.09/1.28/176 in 173 IP

Strategy

The Cubs tore it down in 2021 and in doing so they built one of the best farm systems in baseball with both depth and elite talent. They could legitimately be a juggernaut by 2024. They’ve done an excellent job of developing talent in the recent past, especially hitting talent, and a lot of their top hitting prospects should come at a great value this off-season. I’m going to be all over Cubs prospects in drafts.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
–A Top 150 Sneak Peek of my 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings with more early releases coming all off-season
-Dynasty Team Reports for every team (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
–Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Top 56 Catchers/Top 76 1B/Top 81 2B are up now)
-End of Season 2021 Top 466 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
-End of Season 2021 Top 322 Dynasty Prospects Rankings

Previous Teams on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles-Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds–Cleveland Indians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Los Angeles Dodgers–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets–New York Yankees–Oakland Athletics–Philadelphia Phillies–Pittsburgh Pirates–Seattle Mariners–San Francisco Giants–St. Louis Cardinals–Tampa Bay Rays–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on January 4, 2021March 3, 2021 by Michael Halpern

Top 50 2020/21 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings

The Sneak Peek Series continues with the Top 50 2020/21 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings. The full FYPD list will be released concurrently with the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings, expected to be out the week after the Super Bowl, sometime between February 8th-14th (2020’s list was out on Feb. 9th). Here is the Top 50 2020/21 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR UP TO DAILY WEEKDAY CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE SEASON, INCLUDING ARTICLES, PODCASTS, RANKINGS, AND OTHER COOL STUFF I THINK UP ALONG THE WAY

Click here for the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

Player Name TEAM, POSITION, AGE (Years.Months on 2021 Opening Day – Months are on a scale of 0-11 … I know it is not mathematically correct, but I do all of this manually)

Projections (Hitters): R/HR/RBI/AVG/OBP/SLG/SB
(Pitchers): Wins/ERA/WHIP/K/Saves

*Prime Projections – These projections are meant to give you a general idea of what I think about a prospect’s future stat profile in a relatively good outcome scenario. I find this helpful as a quick reference to see how a prospect’s tools/skills translate to fantasy categories.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR UP TO DAILY WEEKDAY CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE SEASON, INCLUDING ARTICLES, PODCASTS, RANKINGS, AND OTHER COOL STUFF I THINK UP ALONG THE WAY

1) Spencer Torkelson DET, 3B/1B, 21.7 – Selected 1st overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Tork launched 54 homers in 129 games at Arizona State. He’s a big bodied power hitter with patience, below average speed, and a BA that shouldn’t hurt you. The no brainer pick for #1 overall. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 89/35/102/.270/.353/.529/3

2) Austin Martin TOR, OF, 22.0 – Selected 5th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft but signed for the 2nd largest signing bonus. Martin has a quick bat with natural loft, an advanced plate approach and above average speed. If power fully develops, he will pass Tork as an elite all category stud. A great consolation prize if you missed out on the #1 pick. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 93/23/82/.284/.358/.455/13

3) Zac Veen COL, OF, 19.4 – Selected 9th overall, the 6’4”, 190 pound Veen has a lightening quick lefty swing with natural loft. His patient plate approach, good feel to hit, and at least plus power potential gives him the ingredients to turn into a heart of the order beast. Combine all that with Coors, and Veen has the highest upside on the list. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 86/28/93/.270/.342/.491/10

4) Ha-Seong Kim SD, SS/2B, 25.5 – At 5’9”, 167 pounds Kim has been one of the best players in the KBO since he was 19 years old. He took his game to the next level in 2020, slashing .306/.397/.523 with 30 homers, 23 steals, and a 68/75 K/BB in 138 games. He’s a safe proximity play with the ability to contribute in every category, and there is some nice upside too if the stats translate better than expected. 2021 Projection: 79/19/71/.271/.337/.433/15

5) Nick Gonzales PIT, 2B/SS, 21.10 – Selected 7th overall, the 5’10”, 190 pound Gonzales put up insane numbers in an extreme hitter’s environment at New Mexico State, rocking 12 homers with a .448 BA and 10/21 K/BB in 16 games before the season got shutdown. He performed well in the wood bat Cape Cod League too with 7 homers, a .351 BA and a 22/20 K/BB in 42 games. He has one of the best hit tools in the draft and while he isn’t projected for huge homer or steal totals, he should be an all category stat stuffer. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 86/21/74/.281/.348/.448/9

6) Asa Lacy KC, LHP, 21.10 – Selected 4th overall, Lacy is a 6’4” lefty with a nasty mid 90’s fastball and two potentially plus secondaries in his changeup and slider. His only 4 starts in 2020 were absolutely dominant with a 0.75 ERA and 46/8 K/BB in 24 IP. Walk rates were high in college with a 4.0 BB/9 in 152 IP, but his control/command is better than that number indicates. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 13/3.66/1.23/211 in 186 IP

7) Pete-Crow Armstrong NYM, OF, 19.0 -Selected 19th overall, Armstrong stands out for his plus speed, plus defense, and strong track record of hitting. Power hasn’t been a big part of his game, but he has recently added muscle onto his projectable 6’1” frame, and a 99 MPH exit velocity mark at a 2019 Perfect Game event is damn good. Armstrong is my favorite target in first year player drafts relative to consensus. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/18/73/.274/.340/.428/21

8) Max Meyer MIA, RHP, 22.1 – Selected 3rd overall, the 6’0”, 196 pound Meyer is an excellent athlete with an elite fastball/slider combo and a changeup that has the ability to develop into a legitimate third pitch. There is some bullpen risk, but we’ve seen predominantly two pitch starters given the chance to start of late and thrive. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 12/3.74/1.22/191 in 172 IP

9) Emerson Hancock SEA, RHP, 21.10 – Selected 6th overall, Hancock is a 6’4” righty with plus command of a mid 90’s fastball and plus changeup. Slider is inconsistent and will be the key to reaching his full potential. Watching some of his better starts makes you want to place him as the top overall pitcher, but the consistency hasn’t been there. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 12/3.83/1.20/186 in 178 IP

10) Garrett Mitchell MIL, OF, 22.7 – Selected 20th overall, Mitchell builds his game around double plus speed and plus centerfield defense. At 6’3”, 215 pounds the plus raw power is in there, but he hasn’t been able to tap into yet with a low launch angle and 0 homers in 15 games in 2020 (6 homers in 62 game in 2019). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 82/16/66/.266/.328/.419/24

11) Cristian Hernandez CHC, SS, 17.3 – At 6’2”, 175 pounds Hernandez takes vicious hacks at the dish, foreshadowing monster power potential when his projectable frame fills out. He also gets high marks for his athleticism, feel to hit, and plus speed. The top international prospects consistently get underrated in first year player drafts, so while the risk is high, the discount in drafts mitigates that. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 83/26/87/.273/.341/.479/14

12) Wilman Diaz LAD, SS, 17.4 – At 6’2”, 170 pounds Diaz is a plus athlete who has displayed a good feel to hit and the ability to hit it with authority in Venezuelan youth leagues. The power potential is plus as he gains strength, and he should retain enough speed to steal 10+ bags even as he gains weight. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 87/22/79/.281/.352/.462/14

13) Garrett Crochet CHW, LHP, 21.9 – Selected 11th overall, Crochet made it all the way up to the Majors and unleashed an unhittable, double plus 100.1 MPH fastball. He’s never been a full time starter, so bullpen risk is high, although his upside would be considerable as a closer. Injury risk is high too as shoulder soreness delayed the start of his college season and he suffered a flexor strain to his forearm to end his season during the MLB playoffs. 2021 Projection: 2/4.23/1.33/34 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.77/1.28/185 in 161 IP

14) Heston Kjerstad BAL, OF, 22.2 – Selected 2nd overall, the 6’3”, 220 pound Kherstad has at least plus power and put up impressive home run totals from day 1 in the SEC, knocking 37 homers in 150 career games. The K/BB numbers are suspect (129/54), but he was in the midst of a Junior year breakout before the season got shutdown (6 homers with a 9/7 K/BB in 16 games). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 73/28/88/.251/.320/.482/3

15) Austin Hendrick CIN, OF, 19.10 – Selected 12th overall, Hendrick generates incredible bat speed with at least plus power potential. He put up a 105 MPH exit velocity at a Perfect Game event in 2019, which puts him in elite territory for his class. On the downside, there is some swing and miss concerns, he’s old for his class, and he hasn’t consistently faced the toughest competition. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/29/89/.252/.334/.490/6

16) Bryce Jarvis ARI, RHP, 23.3 – Selected 18th overall, Jarvis took a major step forward in 2020 with his fastball ticking up into the mid 90’s. He refined his breaking balls to become above average pitches and showed much improved control. He didn’t have the opportunity to prove he can do it for more than 27 IP, but he now has the chance for 4 above average pitches (fastball, curve, slider, change) with above average control/command. Along with Pete-Crow Armstrong, Jarvis is a player I’m targeting everywhere relative to price. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 12/3.82/1.26/188 in 172 IP

17) Mick Abel PHI, RHP, 19.8 – Selected 15th overall, Abel is your prototypical projectable high school pitcher at 6’5”, 190 pounds with a potentially plus 3 pitch mix (fastball, slider, change). He throws strikes but he’s more control over command right now. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 13/3.72/1.23/192 in 184 IP

18) Carlos Colmenarez TB, SS, 17.4 – At 5’10”, 175 pounds Colmenarez has a quick, compact lefty swing with natural loft that should lead to more power as he ages. He’s hit well in games and is an average runner with above average potential. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 80/23/80/.275/.343/.453/10

19) Robert Hassell SD, OF, 19.8 – Selected 8th overall, Hassell has the consensus top hit tool in the high school class, but hasn’t hit for very much power and doesn’t project for huge power numbers down the line either. A 91 MPH top exit velocity mark at Perfect game events in 2019 isn’t bad, but it’s not great either. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 87/16/69/.286/.348/.416/15

20) Austin Wells NYY, C, 21.9 – Selected 28th overall, the lefty hitting Wells is an offensive minded catcher with a patient approach and power to all fields. College home run totals don’t exactly jump out at you (14 homers in 112 games including the Cape), and there are strikeout issues (103 K’s), but the Yankee Stadium short porch should help the power play up and his ability to hit to all fields gives him the chance to hit for average even with high strikeout totals. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 77/24/83/.268/.341/.458/5

21) Tomoyuki Sugano FA, RHP, 31.6 – One of the best pitchers in Japan since 2013, Sugano is known for his pinpoint control (1.6 BB/9) rather than gaudy strikeout totals (8.6 K/9). He throws a low 90’s fastball with two different sliders and a split finger as his best secondary. 2021 Projection: 10/4.28/1.27/148 in 162 IP

22) Reid Detmers LAA, LHP, 21.9 – Selected 10th overall, Detmers is a 6’2” lefty with plus command over low 90’s heat and a deadly curveball. He’s polish over stuff, but it didn’t stop him from piling up K’s in college (19.6 K/9 in 22 IP in 2020). Change has the potential to be above average while the slider lags behind. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 11/3.92/1.26/188 in 179 IP

23) Yoelqui Cespedes CHW, OF, 23.6 – Cespedes recently packed on muscle weight and revamped his swing in order to get more power out of his 5’9”, 205 pound frame. He’s a plus runner and he has the bloodlines, so while he is mostly still a mystery and I see he is getting ranked lower in other places, I’m willing to take my shot at this point in the draft. You also won’t have to wait 4-5 years to see what you have. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 76/19/72/.255/.323/.430/16

24) Pedro Leon HOU, OF, 22.10 – Leon is an explosive athlete who has dominated in Cuba over two seasons, slashing .359/.420/.678 with 21 homers, 8 steals and a 46/20 K/BB in 65 games. He doesn’t have a long professional track record and the hit tool is questionable, but the upside is high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 77/22/74/.243/.326/.443/12

25) Pedro Pineda OAK, OF, 17.7 – Pineda has possibly the highest upside in the international class with a plus power/speed combo and a quick bat that is geared for flyballs. He’s had some swing and miss problems and is still raw at the plate, so the risk is high. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 73/24/81/.248/.327/.458/15

26) Aaron Sabato MIN, 1B, 21.10 – Selected 27th overall, Sabato is a 6’2”, 230 pound 1B only prospect who smashed 25 homers in 83 games in the ACC. He’s a patient hitter with some swing and miss concerns. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 68/25/81/.252/.337/.469/0

27) Justin Foscue TEX, 2B/3B, 22.0 – Selected 14th overall, Foscue has the potential for plus hit but doesn’t have big power or speed. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 83/19/71/.276/.339/.434/5

28) Ed Howard CHC, SS, 19.8 – Selected 16th overall, Howard’s best skill is his plus shortstop defense. The bat isn’t as strong, although he has hit well against top competition and will certainly add power at 6’2”, 185 pounds. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 79/20/77/.264/.332/.444/9

29) Nick Bitsko TB, RHP, 18.10 – Selected 24th overall, Bitsko is one of the youngest players in the draft due to reclassifying and coming out a year early. At 6’4”, 220 pounds he has prototypical starter size with a fastball that has touched 98 MPH and features a nasty curveball as his money pitch. He throws strikes and shows good feel on his lesser used changeup. Underwent surgery to repair a labrum issue in December and is expected to miss some of 2021. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 11/3.93/1.29/181 in 178 IP

30) Isaiah Greene NYM, OF, 19.7 – Selected 69th overall, Greene is a 6’1”, 180 pound lefty with plus speed and a swing geared for contact. He’s a great athlete with room to fill out his frame, so the power may come. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 82/17/68/.272/.336/.419/20

31) Jordan Walker STL, 3B, 18.10 – Selected 21st overall, Walker is 6’5”, 220 pounds with a quick swing and plus power. Like many hitters this tall, there are questions about the ultimate hit tool. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 75/25/82/.261/.330/.467/7

32) Jake Vogel LAD, OF, 19.6 – Selected 100th overall, Vogel’s calling card is his double plus speed and excellent athleticism. He’s only 5’11”, 165 pounds, but he has sneaky pop evidenced by a top exit velocity of 97 MPH at a 2019 Perfect game event, which puts him in the top 4% of his class. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 77/18/73/.262/.326/.420/22

33) Tanner Burns CLE, RHP, 22.3 – Selected 36th overall, Burns has a history of excellent production in the SEC with a pitching line of 2.86/1.17/210/67 in 188.2 career IP. He has plus command over a fastball he can ramp up to 97 MPH, to go along with a plus breaking ball and average change. He’s on the small side at 6’0”, 215 pounds and had shoulder problems in 2019, so durability is a concern. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.15/1.27/162 in 168 IP

34) Maikol Hernandez BAL, SS, 17.6 – At 6’3”, 175 pounds Hernandez has loads of upside with plus speed and the potential for plus power. He’s currently an all fields, line drive hitter who consistently makes hard contact. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 73/24/78/.259/.327/.452/13

35) Cade Cavalli WASH, RHP, 22.7 – Selected 22nd overall, Cavalli has a prototypical starter build at 6’4”, 226 pounds with mid 90’s heat, two swing and miss breaking balls, and a developing changeup. He’s had injury issues which has prevented him from pitching very much and there are control problems too, so the risk is high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.06/1.33/155 in 156 IP

36) Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 22.0 – Selected 29th overall, Miller is 6’5”, 220 pounds with a plus fastball that reaches the upper 90’s, a plus slider, and a potentially plus changeup. 2020 was the first year he was going to be a full time starter, and his delivery indicates some bullpen risk. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/3.92/1.29/149 in 151 IP

37) Zach DeLoach SEA, OF, 22.7 – Selected 43rd overall, DeLoach exploded in the 2019 Cape Cod League with a .353/.428/.541 triple-slash after disappointing with a .611 OPS in the SEC earlier that year. He carried over the Cape Cod league success in 2020 with a 1.336 OPS, 6 steals and a 3/14 K/BB in 18 games. He doesn’t have any elite tools, but has the chance to be an all category contributor. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/20/76/.267/.329/.437/10

38) Tyler Soderstrom OAK, C, 19.4 – Selected 26th overall, Soderstrom is an offensive minded catcher with the potential to hit for both average and power, but is not a lock to stick behind the plate. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 68/22/76/.268/.335/.446/4

39) Jhonny Piron TB, OF, 17.2 – At 6’1”, 165 pounds Piron is tooled up with excellent athleticism, plus speed and power projection, but needs to continue refining his hit tool. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/20/74/.256/.323/.442/14

40) Jared Shuster ATL, LHP, 22.8 – Selected 25th overall, Shuster showed dramatically improved control in the 2019 Cape Cod League (1.4 BB/9 in 32 IP), and not only did he maintain that in 26.1 IP in 2020 (1.4 BB/9), but he also increased his fastball velocity by about 4 MPH with the ability to hit 97 MPH. His best pitch is a plus changeup to go along with an average slider. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.21/1.30/168 in 173 IP

41) Jared Kelley CHW, RHP, 19.5 – Selected 47th overall, Kelley throws mid 90’s gas with a plus changeup, but lacks feel on his breaking ball. The upside is considerable if the breaking ball improves, but if it doesn’t he may end up in the pen. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 10/3.98/1.31/158 in 155 IP

42) Cole Wilcox TB, RHP, 21.9 – Selected 80th overall, Wilcox was starting to show improved control with only 2 walks in 23 IP before the season got shutdown (5.7 BB/9 in 2019). It’s a good sign as the stuff is nasty with a mid 90’s fastball, potentially plus slider and developing change. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.08/1.33/161 in 158 IP

43) Jordan Westburg BAL, SS, 22.1 – Selected 30th overall, Westburg has the raw talent to be a plus power/speed combo, but he hasn’t been able to tap into his raw power with only 10 homers in 124 NCAA games, and the hit tool is also a concern with high strikeout rates throughout his career. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 75/15/68/.246/.318/.420/13

44) Dillon Dingler DET, C, 22.6 – Selected 38th overall, Dingler was just starting to tap into his raw power in 2020 with 5 homers in 13 games. He’s a plus athlete for a catcher with the chance to steal a handful of bases, which is always nice to get from your catcher position. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 69/17/63/.260/.323/.421/7

45) Clayton Beeter LAD, RHP, 22.6 – Selected 66th overall, Beeter has impressive stuff with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and the potential for two plus breaking balls. 2020 was his first year as a starter in college, and while the numbers are impressive (2.14 ERA with a 33/4 K/BB), it came in only 21 IP and he had a 8.7 BB/9 in 20.2 IP in 2019. Reliever risk is high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 7/3.83/1.32/141 in 127 IP

46) Hudson Haskin BAL, OF, 22.3 – Selected 39th overall, Haskin has shown the ability to hit for hard contact with strong plate approach numbers at Tulane, slashing .363/.457/.612 with 11 homers and a 39/40 K/BB in 73 career games. He’s a plus defender with plus speed although it only resulted in 5 career NCAA stolen bases. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 76/18/70/.263/.324/.426/9

47) Jared Jones PIT, RHP, 19.8 – Selected 44th overall, Jones is a great athlete with a mid to upper 90’s fastball, potentially plus slider and developing change. Control has been spotty and he doesn’t have ideal size at 6’1”, 180 pounds. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.11/1.34/154 in 151 IP

48) Owen Caissie CHC, OF, 18.9 – Selected 45th overall, Caissie is young for his high school class and has plus raw power with above average speed at 6’4”, 190 pounds, but it comes with strikeout issues. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 73/24/79/.238/.321/.462/9

49) Jordan Nwogu CHC, OF, 22.1 – Selected 88th overall, Nwogu is 6’3”, 235 pounds with a plus power/speed combo and very strong numbers in his 3 years in the Big Ten, slashing .334/.430/.545 with 20 homers, 30 steals, and a 96/63 K/BB in 125 career games. There are some concerns over his swing, but the upside is considerable. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/23/77/.253/.325/.457/14

50) Blaze Jordan BOS, 3B, 18.3 – Selected 89th overall, Jordan has been known for his prodigious raw power for years now, consistently putting up impressive exit velocity numbers, but limited defensive value means he’s likely going to have to hit his ceiling to see everyday at-bats. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 67/25/79/.250/.325/.473/4

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)