Addison Barger – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on June 2, 2025June 4, 2025 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (6/2/25)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (6/2/25):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
–MAY 2025 TOP 443 DYNASTY RANKS (5/30/25)
–MAY 2025 TOP 323 PROSPECTS RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAY MAILBAG!
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2026 PROSPECTS RANKS
–SPREADSHEETS

Addison Barger – TOR, 3B/OF, 25.6 – Three weeks ago here in the Monday Rundown I ran to the town tower to ring the Buy Bell on Addison Barger, writing, “It’s time to target Barger everywhere. He actually has a positive 2.6 defensive value, which is getting me pumped, because his bat is no joke. He has an elite 76.3 MPH swing with a 13.6% Barrel%, 96.1 MPH EV. 13.5 degree launch, and .362 xwOBA in 59 PA. The plate skills are taking a big jump forward too with his K% all the way down to 16.9% (26.7% in 2024) and his Chase all the way down to 20.2% (31.5% in 2024). Barger is a major target right now. Go after him.” … and now the true star explosion is happening with him homering in 3 straight games. Yesterday’s was a 112.3 MPH piss missile. As I already gave you the heads up on weeks ago when not a peep was being whispered about this man, he looks like a true superstar. I’m not going to repeat all of those top of the scale metrics again, but all of them are still shining. I’ve seen the hype grow already as more people are noticing, so it could be too late, but I know if you read my work, you’ve had him for weeks already.

Jacob Wilson – OAK, SS, 23.0 – 4 for 4 with 4 singles … dude is a hit machine with a .357 BA and 5.8% K%. He also stole his 5th bag to go along with 7 homers in 57 games. And I really, really, really hate to do this, because he’s so fun, but I gotta pour just a little cold water. His .324 xwOBA is much much lower than his .393 wOBA. And he’s not the type of lift and pull hitter who generally outperforms Statcast. The 63.4 MPH swing is bottom of the scale, the 26.8 ft/sec sprint is well below average, and the 2.8% Barrel% is very weak. I’ve been seeing him valued like one of the elite up and coming dynasty players in the game, and if you can sell high on a valuation even close to that, I would be all over it. Now having that, I wasn’t buying Wilson this off-season, and that was clearly miss. So after doing a ton of victory lapping in this one below, let me take a walk of shame up top on Wilson. He’s a special contact hitter with enough homers and steals to be an impact fantasy player. He’s good for sure. He’s just not this good … I don’t think.

Hayden Birdsong – SFG, RHP, 23.7 – I knew it was only a matter of time before Birdsong found his way into the rotation, and he’s now solidifying that spot with another strong outing yesterday. He went 5.1 IP with 5 hits, 1 ER, and a 5/0 K/BB at MIA. The 4-seamer sat 95.9 MPH and put up a strong 24% whiff%. The slider was excellent with weak contact (83 MPH EV) and whiffs (26% whiff%), the curve was a whiff machine with a 40% whiff%, and the changeup induced weak contact with a 74.7 MPH EV against. And most importantly, the control was on point with 0 walks. His fastball is a double plus pitch, the 30.1% whiff% on the season is near elite, and he has a diverse pitch mix with 3 good secondaries (the changeup has been his best secondary thus far). He was a major target for me this off-season, and he just ranked 181st overall on the Updated Top 444 Dynasty Baseball Rankings that dropped on the Patreon last week. His come up has only begun.

Ryan Weathers – MIA, LHP, 25.4 – Speaking of off-season targets who we had to wait a little bit on for the breakout, Weathers returned from his forearm strain looking no worse for the wear. In fact, he looks better than ever, going 6 IP with 5 hits, 4 ER, and a 7/3 K/BB vs. SF. Not his best outing, but this was coming off 3 gems to start his season, and he still so clearly flashed that true top of the rotation upside. The 4-seamer sat 97.5 MPH, the changeup racked up 9 of 12 whiffs, the sweeper induced weak contact with a 67.8% EV against and a 25% whiff%, and the slider notched a 60% whiff%. It was good for an elite 36% whiff%. He now has a 2.49 ERA with a 25.3/8.0 K%/BB% in 21.2 IP. The 28.6% whiff% is double plus, the 87.3 MPH EV against is well above average, and all of his pitches are working for him. I loved Weathers this off-season, and I’m even more all in now.

Kris Bubic – KCR, LHP, 27.7 – Not to take away from myself in previous years, but I think I’m having a Target career year. I say this in all humility, it’s kinda nuts how many target hits I’m having this year, and Bubic is huge one. The cat’s already long out of the bag on him though, and he just keeps on dominating, going 7 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER and a 9/1 K/BB vs. DET. The 93 MPH fastball dominated with a 40% whiff% and the changeup dominated too with a 60.3 MPH EV against and 55% whiff%. The sweeper and slider performed well too, leading to a 33% whiff% overall. He’s been lights out all year with a 1.43 ERA and 26.9/7.5 K%/BB% in 75.1 IP. In my 18 teamer, I cashed him in for Jazz Chisholm back in mid April, and I can’t deny that trade has been eating at my guts ever since. I still have Jazz ranked higher, but man, Bubic is untouchable. I’m sick over it, and I’m not even kidding. Let me move on to the next blurb. I don’t want to think about it anymore …

Denzel Clarke – OAK, OF, 25.1 – Okay, so it hasn’t exactly been perfect with a 60% K% … to say the least, but give this man a second to get comfortable. And he has gotten slightly better of late. He went 1 for 3 with 2 steals yesterday, and yes it came with 2 K, but he didn’t strikeout once the day before that, and he only struck out once the day before that one. The 42.1% whiff% actually isn’t as horrific as the K%, and that’s been coming down too. We’ve seen Clarke make improvements to his contact in the minors too. And of course, that huge talent which I saw coming a mile away is shining through. He cracked a 106.5 MPH dinger on Saturday, showing that his power is huge enough to overcome a low launch. His 30.2 ft/sec sprint makes him the 3rd fastest man in baseball behind only Bobby Witt Jr and Byron Buxton (damn, even with all the injuries, and being 31 years old, Buxton is still an elite talent). We also saw the double plus defense with one of the most beastly home run robberies I’ve seen. I was all over the Bleday fade this off-season, writing in his Top 1,000 blurb, “Bleday is a low ceiling player with little speed, a below average BA, and above average homer power at best. I also think there is risk too, because he’s a below average outfielder, and Denzel Clark and Colby Thomas are charging hard to compete for those open OF jobs. He’s actually getting valued pretty highly, so if you can sell high here, I would go for it.” … even with Clarke’s deficiencies, his talent is too big, and his glove is too good to not give him a shot in fantasy. I’m still buying.

Jacob Melton – HOU, OF, 24.7 – Melton was a FYPD favorite of mine in his draft year, and I’ve been relatively high on him ever since, so I’m pumped to see him getting his shot in the bigs. And he most certainly deserved this promotion with a 95.6 MPH EV, 17 degree launch, 21.1% whiff%, and 23.5% Chase% in 17 games at Triple-A. That is special across the board domination, and what made me love him so much in his draft year is that he’s a special athlete at 6’3”, 208 pounds. He went 1 for 3 with a 102.3 MPH single off Taj Bradley and 2 K in his debut. I’m not 100% sure how the playing time is going to shake out, but this is an extremely fantasy friendly profile whose hit tool should be good enough to let those skills shine. He ranked 61st overall on the May 2025 Top 323 Dynasty Prospects Rankings (Patreon).

Xavier Isaac – TBR, 1B, 21.6, AA – The explosion is here for Isaac as he just can’t stop hitting dingers. He cracked his 7th homer in 24 games at Double-A with a shot out to dead center, and he did it with a smooth and explosive lefty swing. That thing really is a thing of beauty, and it’s made to hit dingers. It’s also made to strikeout with a 28.9% K%, but he mitigates that a bit with a 20.6% BB%, and it’s been better of late with a reasonable 25% K% in his last 19 games. So at least it’s headed in the right direction. He’s going to live up to his promise as a power hitting beast, the only question is if it will come with a .250 BA, or like a .220 BA.

Jhostynxon Garcia – BOS, OF, 22.3, AAA – One of my top prospect targets this off-season, Jhostynxon is going bonkos since getting the call to Triple-A, smoking his 4th homer in just 11 games at the level. What made me love him this off-season is that he proved the hit tool would play in the upper minors when he got his shot at the end of last season, even if he didn’t hit particularly well, and now he’s locking that in with a 21.5/10.8 K%/BB% in 44 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. And of course, I also love the legit plus power, athleticism (4 steals), and glove. My only plea, is that Boston doesn’t repeat the mistakes of Baltimore. Look at what happens when you let your great depth rot. You need to trade these guys while the iron is hot. Please don’t put Garcia in blocked prospect hell. Trade this man.

Luis Pena – MIL, SS/3B/SS, 18.4, A – Everyone’s favorite prospect, Luis Pena, was another named target for me this off-season. I’m sorry. I know I’m victory lapping a lot, but as I said it in the Bubic blurb, it’s a career target year for me. Not saying I’m not good in other years 😉 but it’s just wild this season. I named him a target because when I watched him swing, I saw an absolutely explosive bazooka that did not do his 1 homer last year justice, and now that swing is producing even more power, drilling his 5th homer in just 30 games at Single-A. When you combine that real power with elite contact (10.4/9.7 K%/BB%) and speed (22 steals), you have a legitimately elite prospect, and that is exactly how I ranked him in the Updated Top 444 Dynasty Rankings, putting him in the elite tier at 87th overall. Damn is he exciting.

Jonathon Long – CHI, 1B, 23.2, AAA – Okay, last lap for today, I promise, but I was the only man alive to call Jonathon Long a FYPD target. He was a 266th overall draft pick college bat, but when I watched that swing, I just saw a real prospect, writing, ““Long makes for an interesting late round target in deeper leagues … He has a very quick and powerful swing that looks relatively legit to me, and he hits the ball hard. Obviously don’t expect a league winner, but I think he’s a real prospect.” And he’s now far beyond a real prospect after cracking one 453 feet for his 9th homer in 52 games at Triple-A. He’s now slashing .344/.419/.561 with 9 homers, 2 steals, and a 23.6/11.1 K%/BB% in 52 games. He has a 93.3 MPH EV with a solid 26.1% whiff% and 26.9% Chase%. His bat is way beyond “real,” it has the potential to be truly impact on the MLB level. The problem is that he’s a 1B and there isn’t a path to a full time job right now, but if does get his shot, I’m still betting on his bat.

Emmet Sheehan – LAD, RHP, 25.6, AAA – Sheehan is making his return from Tommy John surgery, and in his first start back at Triple-A, he looked like fire, going 3 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 5/0 K/BB vs. a pretty decent lineup that featured JJ Bleday, Colby Thomas, Seth Brown, Darrel Hernaiz, and Max Muncy. The fastball sat 96.9 MPH and dominated with 9 of 17 whiffs. The slider was excellent too with a 73.3 MPH EV against and 33% whiff%. And he mixed in a changeup too which put up a 33% Called Strike+Whiff%. That is basically the formula which made him a near elite prospect a few years ago, and the one that showed so much promise in his 2023 MLB debut. While it’s unclear when he will get another shot in the majors, make sure he’s back on your radar. He’s healthy and looks great.

Joe Boyle – TBR, RHP, 25.8, AAA – I was singing Boyle’s praises in the May Mailbag Podcast (Patreon), and he went out yesterday and threw a gem at Triple-A, going 5 IP with 3 hits, 0 ER, and a 9/1 K/BB. The fastball sat 97.6 MPH and put up a 28% whiff%. The slider and splitter were whiff machines too, leading to a 28% whiff% overall, and of course, the control was on point. That is the big factor in what is making me love him right now. The 11.1% BB% is actually reasonable considering his level of stuff. It’s also a career high by far. Tampa done did it again. You have to trust them, and they very well might turn Joe Boyle into a high K, mid rotation starter.

Taj Bradley – TBR, RHP, 24.1 – 7 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 10/2 K/BB at HOU. The 97 MPH fastball put up a 85.6 MPH EV against and a 24% whiff%. The splitter was dynamite with a 86% whiff% and 62.2 MPH EV against. In fact, all 4 of his pitches induced an insane amount of weak contact with an 82.7 MPH EV overall. That is the definition of turning the other team’s bats into noodles. Like those pool noodles you used to beat the crap out of your of your friends with in the pool when we were kids. Bradley has been sitting in the breakout waiting room for 3 years now, and while we’ve seen stretches of this, this does seem like he’s quietly leveling up. His 3.24 xERA is actually excellent, even if I can’t quite buy it with a 22.0/9.3 K%/BB% and 24.3% whiff%. I can’t take him out of the breakout waiting room quite yet, but we are seeing some signs that just maybe he’s getting close.

Chris Paddack – MIN, RHP, 29.4 – 8 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 10/1 K/BB at SEA. Let’s be honest, is there a more perfect ballpark for Paddack than Seattle with that elite control, fastball heavy approach? I feel like if Paddack was on Seattle, his entire career would be different. He would be like Bryan Woo out there. But we don’t live in that timeline, and he’s on Minnesota, but it’s time to show him some respect as he now has a 3.58 ERA with a 18.7/7.5 K%/BB% in 65.1 IP. Sure that K/BB is rough, but in this latest outing the whiffs were there for him with a 30% whiff% overall. All 4 of his pitches were missing bats. I can’t really say I’m buying here, as the upside is probably more solid than truly standout, but Paddack is clearly stabilizing his career right now, and solid is a lot better than what he’s shown previously. And if he keeps getting outings in Seattle, he would be a true ace 😉

Cal Raleigh – SEA, C, 28.4 – Cal hits dingers. We knew this already. But this season, he’s taking it to another level with his 23rd homer last night. That gives him the league lead in homers. The 24.3% Barrel%, 92.6 MPH EV, 24 degree launch, 27.3% K%, 14.6% BB%, and .408 xwOBA are all career highs by far. He’s so easily the top dynasty catcher in the game right now, and I gave him his due respect in the Updated Top 444 Dynasty Baseball Rankings that dropped last week on the Patreon, ranking him 46th overall. Even that might be too light.

Coby Mayo – BAL, 3B, 23.6 – Called back up and the misery continues. He went 0 for 4 with 2 K yesterday. He had just about the worst attempt at drawing interference on the basepaths I’ve ever seen the day before that. I don’t think any player has made themselves more at home on the Bottom of the Rundown than Cody Mayo … well, that’s not true, Jarred Kelenic exists, and he’s now descended to even lower than the Bottom of the Rundown … Off the Rundown … not even worth discussing anymore. So there’s that at least for Mayo. At least we are still discussing his ineptness …

Brailyn Antunez – MIL, OF, 17.6 – Here is your reminder that the DSL kicks off today, and while I’m excited about so many players in the incoming class, none are getting me as excited as Braylin Antunez. Here was my blurb for him this off-season, “At 6’0”, 194 pounds, Antunez’ build, movements and type of athleticism remind me of an NBA point guard. He has present power, he’s fast, and he has a good feel to hit. There might not be as much projection as some of the other long and lean builds in this class, but there is some Jasson Dominguez vibes in the sense he might be pretty filled out already, but it’s the type of athleticism that he will maintain. Some of these guys could fill out and slow down considerably, while Antunez has already proven he can do both. I like him a lot, and how can you not trust Milwaukee after Chourio and Made.” I then named him a major target in the Target Articles. And now we will see if he can hit a lick and live up to my hype …

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

Posted on May 12, 2025May 12, 2025 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/12/25)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
–APRIL 2025 TOP 437 DYNASTY RANKS (4/25/25)
–MAY 2025 TOP 323 PROSPECTS RANKS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2026 PROSPECTS RANKS
–SPREADSHEETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: APRIL MAILBAG!

Pete Crow-Armstrong – CHC, OF, 23.1 – Make it double digits for Pete Crow as he destroyed his 10th homer of the year into the upper deck at Citi Field. I’ve been pounding the table for Pete Crow Armstrong for so long now that I don’t have a table in my house that isn’t cracked and broken. I have to eat dinner standing up now. The Crow now has a 13.8% Barrel%, 90 MPH EV, and 22.1 degree launch in 41 games and is on pace for almost 40 dingers with 50 steals. I ranked him all the way up at 64th overall in the off-season Top 1,000 Rankings, starting off his blurb by writing, “Pete Crow Armstrong’s power has been underrated from the time he was drafted,” and ending with “Put some respect on this man’s name. His name is Pete Crow Armstrong, not Pete Crow Armweak.” Well, I think now people know. He moved all the way up to 33rd overall on the recently updated April Top 423 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), and I’m not even sure that was high enough. I would value PCA as a Top 20 dynasty asset at the very least right now. Damn he’s fun.

Luis Morales – OAK, RHP, 22.7 – 7 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 11/1 K/BB at Double-A. The Bubba Chandler 2.0 glow up at Double-A just keeps on cementing. He was pumping upper 90’s heat for whiffs all day, which he would then follow up with vicious sliders. He utterly demoralized the competition. After his 7th strikeout vs. Logan Cerny, I’ve never seen someone walk away from the plate so dejected. He just dropped his bat and hung his head in shame as he walked back to the dugout. I saw the writing on the wall this off-season, starting Morales’ Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “This isn’t a comp, but Morales reminds me a lot of where Bubba Chandler was sitting last off-season. Like Chandler, Morales is a huge talent ($3 million signing bonus in 2023), with a scouts dream build at 6’3”, 190 pounds (although Chandler was more built up and wider), super obvious humongous stuff, below average control, and mediocre results at High-A. Morales put up a 4.22 ERA with a 24.9/10.7 K%/BB% in 81 IP at the level while Chandler put up a 4.75 ERA with a 25.6/10.9 K%/BB% in 106 IP at the level.” … and now just like Chandler, Morales is blowing up at Double-A with a 2.97 ERA and 31.5/9.8 K%/BB% in 36.1 IP. He already rose all the way up to 33rd overall on my Updated Top 323 May Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings that just dropped on the Patreon last week, and it still seems like there is time to get in. He’s still underrated.

Addison Barger – TOR, 3B/OF, 25.5 – It’s time to target Barger everywhere. He went 2 for 4 with a 107.2 MPH homer and 103.5 MPH single yesterday. I wanted to make him a major target this off-season, but the only thing holding me back was his defense, and right now, he actually has a positive 2.6 defensive value, which is getting me pumped, because his bat is no joke. He has an elite 76.3 MPH swing with a 13.6% Barrel%, 96.1 MPH EV. 13.5 degree launch, and .362 xwOBA in 59 PA. The plate skills are taking a big jump forward too with his K% all the way down to 16.9% (26.7% in 2024) and his Chase all the way down to 20.2% (31.5% in 2024). He’s still in a scrum for playing time, and it might be a platoon role, but I’m sorry, you can not keep this bat off the field. Barger is a major target right now. Go after him.

Caleb Durbin – MIL, 2B/3B, 25.1 – 0 for 3 and now has a .581 OPS with 0 barrels, an 83.7 MPH EV, and a negative 1.4 defensive value in 22 games. I like Durbin. I’m rooting for the little cutie at 5’7”, and he makes a ton of contact with a 5% K%, but 3B is for power hitting beasts, and Milwaukee just so happens to have one of those behemoths ripping up the minors right now …

Brock Wilken – MIL, 3B, 22.11 – and that man’s name is Brock Wilken. I held strong on Wilken’s value this off-season, putting him in my Top 100 at #87, and he’s rewarding that patience with a big year at Double-A. He went 3 for 4 with a dinger yesterday and he now has 8 homers with a 26.2/23.4 K%/BB% and 176 wRC+ in 33 games. He had a down year in 2024, but that was due to getting rocked in the face with a pitch on April 11th, sustaining multiple facial fractures. He talked about how hard it was to come back from that mentally this off-season. He’s over it now though. And he’s coming for that 3B job sooner rather than later.

Rafael Devers – BOS, 3B, 28.6 – 2 for 3 with a 110.4 MPH homer off Seth Lugo. First off, it’s great to see the shoulder problems seem to be behind Devers. His 18.8% Barrel%, 95.6 MPH EV and 61.6% Hard Hit% are all career bests. It sure seems like he’s taking to DH quite well … possibly too well, because now he refuses to move off the position. And I mean, I get it. I played 3B and 2B in my career through high school, and I also hated when they made me play 1B. I felt like a fish out of water. I wasn’t good at it. It was hard to learn. I get it … but … unlike Devers, I didn’t refuse to play it hah. I did the best I could and I did what was best for the team. So even though I relate to Devers, hopefully he comes around eventually.

Josh Jung – TEX, 3B, 27.3 – 2 for 4 with a 107.4 MPH homer for his 4th in 32 games. Jung hasn’t exactly been blowing up with a .732 OPS, but I’m extremely encouraged by his start. He got hit by a pitch and broke his wrist just 4 games into the 2024 season, and he didn’t look the same when he returned later that year. We’ve seen wrist injuries linger and even end player’s careers (Alex Kirilloff), so I love the see that Jung has a 13.2% Barrel% with a 95.5 MPH FB/LD EV on the season. He’s back to hitting the ball very hard, and he’s doing it with career bests in K% (21.1%), whiff% (23.7%) and Chase% (30.7%). He’s starting to look like the special hitter trajectory he was on after his rookie year in 2023. Buy now while the surface stats still look mediocre.

Lars Nootbaar – STL, OF, 27.6 – I’ve been ringing the buy bell on Nootbaar all season with his launch all the way up to 17.7 degrees, and unsurprisingly, the dingers keep on coming with him cracking a 108.1 MPH homer off Mackenzie Gore for his 6th in 40 games. He’s always hit the ball really hard with an elite plate approach, and seeing neither of those strengths in his game drop off even a smidge with the added launch is damn impressive. In fact, he’s never hit the ball harder with a career high 50.8% Hard Hit%, or swung the bat faster with a 74.5 MPH swing (up almost 2 MPH from 2024). He’s also on a career high stolen base pace with 4 steals. This is a full on blow up and I’m buying hard here.

Wilyer Abreu – BOS, OF, 25.10 – 3 for 4 with a 107.9 MPH homer, 107.4 MPH single, and 106.9 MPH single. Abreu jumped up to #161 overall on the Updated Top 437 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), and here is what I wrote for him, “I’m ashamed of myself for not being higher on Abreu. He was one of my favorite target hits ever, and I let him down this off-season. He has double plus bat speed, he hit the ball hard, he lifts it, and the plate skills are taking a big step forward this year. One the flip side, he’s not hitting lefties well and he’s not playing against them very often either. And the biggest concern, which scared me this off-season, was Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer on the way. It’s a lot of mouths to feed.” … He’s still not playing vs. lefties very much, but the damage he is doing vs. righties more than makes up for it. His .411 xwOBA is in the top 6% of baseball. He’s also an above average defensive player. Treat this man like the young star he is. His value continues to rise.

Heliot Ramos – SFG, OF, 25.8 – 2 for 2 with a 105.4 MPH homer off Pablo Lopez at Minnesota. He now has 6 homers with a .968 OPS on the road vs. 1 homer with a .611 OPS at home. This dude could be a superstar hitting almost anywhere else other than San Francisco, but even dealing with that handicap, he’s so damn good he’s still powering through with a strong year. He has a 14.2% Barrel% with a 91.2 MPH EV and .365 xwOBA in 40 games. The hit tool is taking steps forward too with career bests in K% (23.5%) and whiff% (23.8K%). I was all in on Ramos this off-season, naming him a target due to his short and quick swing, and he’s one of many that is proving betting on the bat speed data standouts was not for naught. So many of my targets are paying off. Ramos would have paid off more if not for San Francisco, but nothing we can do about that.

Hunter Goodman – COL, C/OF, 25.6 – Speaking of bat speed breakouts, Goodman’s double plus swing made him a fun target once it was clear Colorado was serious about letting him loose at catcher, and he’s using that powerful swing to keep on hitting dingers, going 3 for 5 with a 108.7 MPH homer and a 116.2 MPH double!!!! He now has 6 homers with a .835 OPS in 25 games, and while he’s likely getting lucky as the .310 xwOBA and 32% whiff% aren’t quite as impressive as the surface stats, it’s clear he has an impact fantasy bat for a catcher at the least.

Brooks Lee – MIN, SS/3B/2B, 24.2 – I rang the 5 alarm target bell on Lee last week in the Rundowns, and he went off yesterday, going 3 for 5 with a 100.9 MPH homer, 100.7 MPH single and 100.3 MPH single. What got me so excited is that this is a high contact player who was seeing big gains in his power. The 11% Barrel%, 89.2 MPH EV and 41.1% Hard Hit% are all career highs by far. His righty swing is almost 3 MPH faster at 73 MPH and his lefty swing is up 1.2 MPH to 70.3 MPH. The fantasy upside is capped by how damn slow he is though. You can time him with a sundial, as my high school baseball coach used to love to yell at me. His 25.9 ft/sec sprint is in the bottom 20% of the league. So you are getting very few steals and it hurts him in runs too, but we are seeing a very real power uptick, and that is worth buying.

Ben Rice – NYY, 1B, 26.7 – For the people waiting on Ben Rice to all of a sudden spot hitting, you can keep on waiting, because Rice isn’t going anywhere. He went 1 for 2 with a 111.2 MPH bomb off Mitch Spence for his 9th in 36 games. You already know Rice was a major target for me this off-season. Here is what I wrote about him in my off-season 19 Dynasty Baseball Strategies/Thoughts for 2025 (A Collection from the 2025 Dynasty Baseball Team Reports), “4) For even the most iron willed dynasty owner, it is a major gut punch when a prospect you love gets the call to the majors, struggles hard, and then gets sent back down to the minors. When it happens to an elite or near elite universally hyped prospect, it’s much easier to stay level headed and hold strong, but when it happens to a good, but not necessarily great prospect it can be much tougher to hold on. Trade value plummets for the non elite guys, and you start to question if their team truly believes in them, thinking they might not get another chance so soon. But let us use Lawrence Butler (and Parker Meadows too) as a lesson to not let a demotion rattle us if we still believe in a player’s skillset. Even elite prospects can struggle in their first taste or two of the majors, so certainly we need to give some grace for non elite ones as well. How to apply that for this season? Well, Ben Rice is staring us right in the face. Rice is not an elite prospect, but he is a relatively well liked one, and he took almost the exact same Butler path in the majors with great underlying numbers (15.6% Barrel%) and poor surface stats (.613 OPS in 173 PA). Admit it, you are questioning how much the Yanks really believe in him and if he will get another chance. I get it, because I am too, but I’m going to use Butler and Meadows as my pillars of strength to not be so quick to give up on Rice. I still like him long term, even with the Goldy signing.”

Mark Vientos – NYM, 3B, 25.4 – 2 for 4 with a 101.4 MPH homer off Mathew Boyd for his 5th in 37 games. It hasn’t been the best start for Vientos, but I would 100% stay the course here. He’s brought his K rate all the way down from 29.7% in 2024 to 20.4% in 2025, which is huge to see, and it’s backed up by a 4.6 percentage point drop in whiff% and a 3.9 percentage point drop in chase%. He’s improving in the areas we wanted to see improvement, and we know the monster power is in there with a 90.5/94.6 MPH AVG/FB EV. He’s an easy hold, and a buy low if you can.

Mike Burrows – PIT, RHP, 25.5 – 4.2 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 11/2 K/BB at Triple-A. The fastball sat 94.7 MPH and put up a 39% whiff% while the changeup put up a 86%!!! whiff%. The slider missed some bats too, leading to a 45% whiff% overall. He now has a 2.63 ERA with a 32.7/9.1 K%/BB% in 27.1 IP. I’ve always felt Burrows was too underrated, giving him a solid ranking at #273 this off-season, and with his dominance in Triple-A, he rose into the Top 200 in the latest update. The Pirates Triple-A rotation is probably better than some MLB rotations right now with Burrows, Chandler, Ashcraft, Harrington and Barco all knocking on the door. I have no idea how they fit all of these guys into the rotation, but these things usually work themselves out.

Chen-Wei Lin – STL, RHP, 23.5 – Lin didn’t pitch especially well yesterday, going 2.2 IP with 5 hits, 1 ER (4 unearned) and a 3/0 K/BB at High-A, but this is just your reminder that he’s back on the mound after getting a late start to the season, and it’s also your reminder to get in now before his value starts to explode. He’s 6’7” with upper 90’s heat and bat missing secondaries. It’s only a matter of time before everyone realizes how good this kid is.

Drew Beam – KCR, RHP, 22.1 – 4 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 7/1 K/BB at High-A. Beam’s skills are officially transferring to pro ball with a 2.55 ERA and 24.8/5.7 K%/BB% in 35.1 IP at High-A. He’s 6’4”, 208 pounds with average to above average stuff (two 94 MPH fastballs, a curve and a changeup) that plays up due to the plus control. Kansas City’s ballpark will be perfect for this type of profile too. He might not have huge upside, but especially in KC, he can be a solid mid rotation starter. He’s a solid pitching prospect.

Braden Nett – SDP, RHP, 22.11 – 5 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 5/1 K/BB at Double-A. I’ve been sleeping on Nett, but that ends now, as he looked quite impressive yesterday. His fastball got up to 98 MPH and he was just straight blowing it by guys. He combines the heat with a couple of bat missing breakers, and it’s resulted in a 4.20 ERA and 27.4/9.6 K%/BB% in 30 IP. There is still major bullpen risk with major control problems throughout his career, but the walk rate is taking a big step forward this year, and the big stuff is worth betting on.

Cole Carrigg – COL, OF, 22.10 – I was waiting to see if Carrigg could keep up the great lower minors production in the upper minors, and he’s answered that question quite easily in 2025 after blasting off for 2 more homers yesterday. He’s now slashing .288/.388/.563 with 7 homers, 9 steals, and a 27.3/11.6 K%/BB% in 28 games at Double-A. The K% is a tad too high, but it’s been coming down of late, and the fantasy upside is shining through. I would value him a Top 100 fantasy prospect right now.

Mike Sirota – LAD, OF, 21.11 – Speaking of newly minted Top 100 fantasy prospects, Sirota just cracked my Top 100, and then he cracked 2 more bombs at Single-A. He’s making a mockery of the level, slashing .354/.443/.687 with 7 homers, 1 steal, and a 21.7/13.0 K%/BB% in 24 games. I would like to see him run a bit more, and would also obviously like to see him keep this up at higher levels, but this was a potential Top 10 draft pick coming into the 2024 season, and now he has the production to match the talent. The Dodgers done did it again.

Jefferson Rojas – CHC, SS, 20.0 – Rojas joined the 2 homer parade yesterday, going 3 for 4 with 2 homers at High-A, and he’s now slashing .300/.387/.513 with 4 homers, 5 steals, and a 14.0/10.8 K%/BB% in 21 games. He’s never been my favorite prospect, but it sure looks like the power is ticking up this year, which he combines with his already strong across the board profile. His value is on the rise.

Jacob Reimer – NYM, 3B, 21.2 – Say hello to the best qualified hitter at High-A. Jacob Reimer leads all hitters at High-A with a 198 wRC+, and he tacked onto his lead yesterday with his 6th homer in 30 games. He was once upon a time a deep FYPD target for me in a tier with Alex Freeland, Luke Adams, and Nacho Alvarez. None of them has done anything in the majors yet, but from their non existent hype at the time, all of them have seen big value rises, and now it’s Reimer’s turn to take centerstage. He’s got real power at 6’0”, 205 pounds, the plate approach is solid (20.0/11.1 K%/BB%) and now he’s lifting and pulling a ton more with a 36% GB% and 46.7% Pull%. He just moved into my Top 300, and he might be pushing Top 200 value right now.

Brailer Guerrero – TBR, OF, 18.10 – The Brailer Guerrero breakout continues to quietly lurk just under the radar, but it got a bit louder yesterday with him blasting his first homer of the season at Single-A. He’s now slashing .308/.438/.487 with 1 homer, 4 steals, and a 29.2/18.8 K%/BB% in 11 games at Single-A as an 18 year old. That’s good for a 166 wRC+. The K rate and 56.5% GB% are both a bit higher than optimal, but this dude can crush the ball and is a breakout waiting to happen. It might be time to pounce, and at the least keep a very, very close eye on him.

Tim Elko – CHW, 1B, 26.4 – Elko popped onto the back at #309 of the Updated Top 323 Dynasty Prospects Rankings (Patreon), writing, “He’s a classic Quad-A slugger, MLB bench bat type with 10 homers and a 29.6 K% at Triple-A, but Chicago is in full rebuild, and if they give him time, he’ll hit dingers” … right on cue, Chicago called him up, and he did in fact hit dingers with a 101.4 MPH homer off Sandy Alcantara for the 1st of his career. He’s 1 for 6 on his young career. The BA could be terrible, but the power is no joke.

Matthew Lugo – LAA, OF, 23.10 – Speaking of hitting your first MLB dinger, Matthew Lugo joined that club yesterday with a 108 MPH homer off Felix Bautista. He did it coming off the bench for Jo Adell, he of the 65 wRC+ and negative 3.5 defensive value. He has a negative 0.4 WAR right now. I might be insane, but I actually don’t want to give up on Adell yet as his .330 xwOBA is actually much better than his surface stats, but I mean, he’s going on his 6th year of being brutal. The problem is that Lugo hasn’t been all that great at Triple-A himself with a 65 wRC+, so I don’t think a change here is imminent, but I liked Lugo this off-season, and even with the slow start, he would be worth a shot if he does find his way into the lineup more. Just a keep your eye situation right now.

Jordan Lawlar – ARI, SS, 22.10 – The wait is over. Lawlar is getting the call to the big league club after demolishing Triple-A all season. He just ranked 2nd overall on my Updated Top 323 Prospects Ranks, and while it doesn’t seem like there is an open spot for him, Arizona claims they will be able to find at bats for him. Optimally you want to call a guy up like this to a full time job, but he’s too good to not be helping the big league club, so I get it. He’ll get eased in, and then when Eugenio Suarez’ contract runs out after this season, he will take over 3B for good.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

Posted on February 26, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Spring Dynasty Baseball Rundown (2/26/23)

I kicked off the Spring Dynasty Baseball Rundowns yesterday on the Patreon, and now it’s time to kick them off on the Brick Wall. I do these all year, mostly on the Patreon, but also a few times a month here. Here is the Spring Dynasty Baseball Rundown (2/26/23):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE & EARLY ACCESS CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2023 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-TOP 500 2023 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKS
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS w/ Strategy & Target Guide
-OBP TOP 500 2023 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-PTS/6+CAT/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 500 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-POSTION BY POSITION TARGET/SLEEPER/UNDERRATED SERIES
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET
-PREDICTING THE 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECTS RANKS

Zac Veen COL, OF, 21.4 – You want exit velocity? You got exit velocity. Veen showed up to camp 25 pounds heavier and crushed a 115.3 MPH double and 102.9 MPH homer in his first spring game. I tried to tell y’all the power was coming, ranking him 10th overall in my Top 500 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings, and warning you to be patient for the power to show up. The power has shown up.

Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.2 – Dominguez cracked a 109.7 MPH, 420 foot dinger on a 92.1 MPH fastball off of … checks notes … Ben Bowden. He of the 5.46 ERA at Triple-A. His first at bat was a 102.7 MPH groundout to first. I wouldn’t draft him 1.1 in a dynasty startup quite yet, but it is a good sign that he’s going to be blowing up Statcast against upper minors pitching. The hype is about to hit all over again. He ranked 11th overall on those aforementioned Top 500 Prospect Rankings.

Garrett Mitchell MIL, OF, 24.7 – The underrated Mitchell (maybe not for long) drilled 2 bombs on a 2 for 3 day with a 0/0 K/BB. I named him one of my top outfielders to target because of how hard he hits the ball and his elite speed. While he has swing and miss issues, I think they are a little overblown with a not terrible 31.5% whiff% and relatively reasonable K rates in the minors. He’s not being valued properly.

Mitch Keller PIT, RHP, 27.0 – The man of many pitches, Keller managed to fire a ridiculous 8 different pitches, going 2 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 2/0 K/BB. He can throw all the pitches he wants, but it still resulted in a measly 17% whiff%. The stuff is big and varied, but he just doesn’t miss enough bats for me, and he doesn’t have pinpoint control either.

Ryne Nelson ARI, RHP, 25.2 – 1 IP, 4 hits, 4 ER, 1/2 K/BB. The velocity was down on all of his pitches (fastball was down 1.4 MPH to 93.4 MPH). Nelson had a slow start to last season as well where his velocity was also down (actually much further than this), so I wouldn’t worry at all, but it isn’t great if you are counting on him winning that 5th starter job. His velocity didn’t fully return last year until the 2nd half really. Hopefully with the longer ramp up to the season, it ticks up a little quicker than that this year.

MacKenzie Gore WAS, LHP, 24.1 – The leg kick is back, and so is the nasty 4 pitch mix. Gore went 1 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 1/0 K/BB. The fastball averaged 95.3 MPH and he was throwing his secondaries harder too, especially the slider and changeup. Obviously it’s all about control with Gore, and while one inning is basically meaningless, at least he hasn’t gone all Wild Thing Vaughn on us quite yet.

Jo Adell LAA, OF, 24.0 – Adell went to Driveline this off-season, and it seems to be paying dividends immediately with him cranking a towering 2 run homer with a swing that looks mighty reminiscent of Vlad Guerrero Sr. I haven’t completely given up on him yet, ranking him 425th overall in the Top 1,000 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings, but he’ll have to earn it every step of the way with LA.

CJ Abrams WAS, SS, 22.6 – 2 for 3 with a 106.6 MPH double. His other hit was a 62.8 MPH single. I don’t need a spreadsheet to realize that averages out to 84.7 MPH, but let’s just focus on that hard hit double. He doesn’t need to be in prime form in his age 22 year old season, but it would be nice to see an uptick in EV.

Gabriel Moreno ARI, C, 23.1 – Moreno smoked a line drive homer down the left field line. It’s not exactly the typical power hitter’s moonshot, so not sure you look at this type of homer and say the power is coming. The hit tool is legit though, the trade to Arizona opens up a full time job, and the power is only going up from here.

Casey Schmitt SFG, 3B/SS, 23.5 – The Giants 3B of the future flashed both the leather and the wood. He went 1 for 2 with a dinger and also made a gold glove worthy play at third. He already ripped up the upper minors in 2022. It won’t be long before we see him on the MLB level.

Addison Barger TOR, 3B/SS, 23.5 – Barger has one of the most beautiful and beastly lefty swings in the minors, and he used it to go deep off a 95.5 MPH David Bednar fastball. When Belt gets hurt, that DH job could be calling his name, and maybe he can steal some at bats away from Merrifield at 2B at some point this season.

Brett Baty NYM, 3B, 23.5 – Baty showed off his effortless power and mature approach, calmly hitting the pitch where it was thrown and launching it to deep centerfield for his first spring homer. He went 2 for 2 with a walk on the day. It won’t be long before he is the full time 3B.

Parker Meadows DET, OF, 23.5 – Meadows cracked a 110 MPH homer of a 91.6 MPH fastball. The homer isn’t that impressive in and of itself, but it shows the type of legit talent Meadows has which gets slept on. He’s 6’5”, 205 pounds with a plus power/speed combo and is coming off an excellent season at Double-A. He has the baseball bloodlines (his brother went 0 for 2 in this game). He’s definitely a nice cheaply priced upside prospect with proximity.

Justin Dirden HOU, OF, 25.9 – Dirden went 2 for 2 with an opposite field shot that cleared the fence in a hurry. He’s a sneaky good prospect for deeper leagues especially. He’s a big dude at 6’3”, 209 pounds with plus power and above average speed. He can play CF. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s next in line for an OF job, even over Pedro Leon.

Heston Kjerstad BAL, OF, 24.2 – Kjerstad carried over a strong AFL performance into his first game of the spring, going 3 for 3 with 2 homers. He has no joke power but has struggled with strikeouts throughout his career, and hasn’t had the opportunity to get a lot of reps in pro ball. It’s hard not to root for Kjerstad after myocarditis delayed the start of his career. He’ll get his first taste of upper minors pitching this year.

Matt McLain CIN, 2B/SS, 23.8 – 2 for 2 with a walk off dinger. Elly obviously gets the most hype (for good reason), Noelvi gets the 2nd most hype, and even Jose Barrero probably gets talked about more, but little Matty McLain could sneak in there to get the next shot at Cincinnati’s SS job. He’s got plenty of flaws (small, not huge raw power, K issues), but through it all he’s performed well against high level pitching his entire career. Don’t completely sleep on him.

Justin Foscue TEX, 2B/3B, 24.1 – Make it back to back dingers for Foscue as he went deep again yesterday. This time off an up and in fastball on the hands. Damn impressive. He could be Texas’ most underrated prospect.

Nick Loftin KC, SS/2B/OF, 24.6 – There are jobs to won in KC, and Loftin is coming for one of those jobs. He absolutely demolished his first spring homer with a beastly righty swing. His power ticked up in 2022, and maybe there is yet another level to unlock in 2023. The dude plays all over the field, so if he hits, they’ll find a spot for him.

Cade Marlowe SEA, OF, 25.9 – Marlowe is coming for that last OF job in Seattle which Kelenic is currently penciled in for, although let’s be honest, Kelenic is losing that job all by himself. He smashed a homer to dead center, showing off the at least above average power. He also has plus speed and a patient plate approach, but like Kelenic, the below average hit tool can tank the whole profile. It’s fantasy friendly upside that is worth taking a shot on, but there is plenty of risk here too.

Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.4 – Holliday showed off the sweet lefty swing and wheels, cracking a double in his first spring at bat. There is a whole lot more of that coming.

Jhoan Duran MIN, Closer Committee, 24.7 – Pitched a perfect inning with one K. Fastball averaged 101.8 MPH, up 1 MPH from last year. I mean, come on.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)