Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Fantasy Baseball Minor League Prospect Rundown: Week 2

Every Monday, I will be running down some of the notable performances from around the Minor Leagues, or anything that might have caught my eye in general. Here is the week 2 2016 Fantasy Baseball Minor League Prospect Rundown:

Tyler Glasnow PIT, RHP – Control issues? What control issues? Glasnow struck out 9 batters and walked none over 5 IP in his 2nd start of the season. This obviously doesn’t mean he is Greg Maddux now, but it’s a start.

Julio Urias LAD, LHP – After dominating in his season debut at Triple-A (5 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BB, 9K), Urias had a rocky 2nd outing (5 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BB, 3K). He gave up 2 homers, but one was a PCL, windblown cheapie, and he finished strong by retiring 9 of the last 11 batters he faced. His fastball reached 96 MPH, and he relied on a hard slider that acted like a cutter at times as his breaking pitch. His changeup wasn’t working for him at all.

A.J. Reed HOU, 1B – Reed finally got on the board this week launching his first 2 homers at Triple-A. He has also struck out 11 times in 9 games, and is hitting .237. Tyler White has thrown a monkey wrench in Reed’s quick ascent to the majors, but spending a little extra time at Triple-A won’t hurt him anyway.

Brad Zimmer CLE, OF – Zimmer began to fill up the box score this week as well, hitting his first 2 homers and stealing his first 2 bases at Double-A. Like Reed, it has come with strikeouts (13 K’s in 9 GP) and a low average (.222).

Bobby Bradley CLE, 1B – More power and strikeouts. Bradley knocked his first 2 dingers at High-A, and has struck out 15 times in 9 games.

Josh Hader MIL, LHP – Hader carried his strong Spring Training performance into the regular season, as he has dominated Double-A hitters to begin the year (9 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BB, 12 K in 2 GS). He doesn’t have much left to prove at the Double-A level at this point.

Joey Gallo TEX, 3B – With the Rangers signing Adrian Beltre to a 2-year contract extension, the prospect crunch got even tighter in Texas. Gallo is destroying Triple-A in the early going, slashing .333/.432/.778 with 4 homers in 10 games, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was the top trade chip at the deadline this season.

Trea Turner WASH, SS – Hitting .424, with 1 homer, and 4 steals in his first 9 games at Triple-A this year. Meanwhile, Danny Espinoza and his .161 AVG is doing one of the best prospect blocking jobs I have even seen, and I lived through the Stephen Drew fiasco in New York.

Alex Bregman HOU, SS – Double-A hasn’t slowed Bregman down at all, as he is completely tearing the level up to the tune of .400/.467/.800, with 5 homers, 1 steal, and only 3 K’s in 10 games. The only question left is where is he going to play in Houston’s stacked infield?

Dansby Swanson ATL, SS – Triple-slashing .341/.408/.477, with 6 doubles (no homers), and 3 steals in 11 games at High-A. No homers? High-A? Step your game up guy who was picked before Bregman.

Carson Fulmer CHW, RHP – Fulmer’s second start (5 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BB, 3 K) did not do much to quell the concerns after his horrible season debut. It is still very early, and he is likely just working out some early season kinks, but it is definitely something to watch.

Sean Manaea OAK, LHP – The hype has started to roll for Manaea, and for good reason, as the 24-year-old has struck out 17 batters and walked only 2 in 12 IP at Triple-A. Health is still the biggest concern here, as the talent has never been an issue.

Dillon Tate TEX, RHP – Followed up his strong season debut by striking out 10 batters in 6 IP in his 2nd start at Single-A. I think it is time to see him against tougher competition.

Raul Mondesi Jr. KC, SS – It might be time to start getting excited. Mondesi built on his strong opening week at Double-A with an equally impressive week 2. His season line now stands at .314/.400/.686, with 3 jacks, 6 steals, and a 6/5 K/BB in 9 games. I would say the time is now to buy, but it might already be too late.

David Dahl COL, OF – The power explosion has arrived! Dahl has smashed 5 homers and is slugging .609, to go along with 3 steals, in 11 games at Double-A. That power/speed combo is sure going to look nice at Coors.

Forrest Wall COL, 2B – Wall is off to a hot start at High-A, triple-slashing .381/.447/.571, with 1 homer, and 3 steals in 9 games. I thought I was already very high on all of Colorado’s prospects, but man, maybe I should have been even higher on them.

Harrison Bader STL, OF – One of my favorite sleepers heading into 2016, Bader has responded to St. Louis pushing him to Double-A to open the season (unlike someone else I know, cough-Willie Calhoun-cough). He is triple-slashing .350/.366/.516, with 1 homer, and 1 steal in 9 games. He has also struck out 13 times and walked only once, so it is not all roses.

Grant Holmes LAD, RHP – After tiring down the stretch last season in August and September, it is nice to see Holmes off to a strong start this year at High-A (11 IP, 0 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BB, 12 K in 2 GS). His ETA is a few years down the road, but the strikeout potential is worth the wait.

Willson Contreras CHC, C – Contreras is proving his 2015 breakout is for real, as he hasn’t missed a beat at Triple-A this season. He is hitting .429, with 3 K’s, and 2 BB’s in 9 games. The only thing left for him to do is to add some more home run power.

Trey Mancini BAL, 1B – Another player who is making his 2015 breakout stand up. Mancini has already launched 5 homers in 10 games at Double-A, and has maintained a .324 AVG while doing so.

Jameson Taillon PIT, RHP – Taillon exceeded all expectations in his first start since 2013, putting up a line of 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BB, and 6 K at Triple-A. His fastball was hitting 94 MPH. At this rate, the 24-year-old Taillon might jump back ahead of Glasnow if a rotation spot opens up in Pittsburgh.

Brent Honeywell TB, RHP – Honeywell has been lights out to start the season at High-A, putting up a line of 0.50/0.72/19 in 18 IP. It is nice to see the K’s tick up after they took a dip when he was promoted to High-A in 2015.

Clint Frazier CLE, OF – In my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post, I said Frazier is a breakout waiting to happen, and well, it might be happening. He is slashing .325/.386/.575, with 2 homers, and 1 steal in 9 games at Double-A. The sky is the limit for this kid.

Renato Nunez OAK, 3B – Nunez homered in back to back games, and has now put up an .890 OPS in his first 9 games at Triple-A. And oh yea, Nunez was the other guy I called a breakout waiting to happen in my top 100 prospects post.

Jorge Alfaro PHI, C – Triple-slashing .500/.526/.750 and hit 1 homer in 8 games at Double-A. The talent has always been there, it was just a matter of putting it together. He is putting it together.

Michael Fulmer DET, RHP – 11 IP, 1 ER, 9 Hits, 4 BB, and 14 K’s in 2 GS at Triple-A. The 2015 breakout was for real.

Matt Chapman OAK, 3B – Smashed 2 homers yesterday, and now has 3 homers and a .953 OPS in 10 games at Double-A. He hit 23 homers in only 80 games last season in the Cal League, so seeing the power show up in a less hitter friendly environment is good to see.

James Kaprielian NYY, RHP – The buzz is starting to build around last year’s 16th overall pick in the draft. Kappy (as Girardi is sure to call him, if he hasn’t already) followed up his terrific season debut (5 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BB, 9 K) with a 1 hitter in 7 IP in his 2nd outing. His season line stands at 0.75/0.50/13 in 12 IP and he is drawing rave reviews from everyone that sees him. He is currently at High-A, but expect him to move fast through the Yankees system.

Travis Demeritte TEX, 2B – Wrote a Travis Demeritte, 2016 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Breakout post. He tacked on another homer since that post, as well.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

New York Knicks Futility and Betting on the NBA Playoffs

My beloved New York Knicks have had a winning record just three times in the last 15 years. They’ve made the playoffs four times and won a single playoff series in that timespan. They went 32-50 this season, and I’m pretty sure they traded away their 2016 1st round pick in the Stephen Marbury deal … or was it the Andrea Bargnani trade? Oh, that’s right, it was the Carmelo Anthony trade. The one where they traded away half of their roster and multiple draft picks for a player that was going to be a free agent in a few months anyway. All of this to say, being a Knicks fan can and will drive a man to gamble. It’s all we have during playoff time! And with the new Commish, Adam Silver, giving his stamp of approval, there is no reason not to throw away some of your hard earned cash in the name of entertainment. Here are the bets I’m eyeing for the 2016 NBA Playoffs:

San Antonio Spurs +400 to win NBA Championship

After winning the Championship in 2014 to avenge their heartbreaking loss to the Miami Heat the year before, the Spurs came into last season fat and happy, literally. Which was perfect for the Golden State Warriors, as they never had to go through the defending champs on their title run. But they won’t be so lucky this time. Not only did the Spurs come back refocused this season, but they came back reloaded, as well, adding LaMarcus Aldridge and David West. While the Warriors were going all out to break the all-time regular season wins record, the Spurs were lying in wait, resting their players, and preparing solely for their inevitable Western Conference Finals matchup.

I do think the Golden State Warriors will win the NBA Championship, but at -150 odds, that bet just isn’t any fun. And I think the Spurs and Warriors are much closer than the odds reflect. I’m a contrarian bettor by nature, and I’m going to ride with the Spurs at +400.

Cleveland Cavaliers -260 to win Eastern Conference

LeBron has been on an absolute tear since going into “playoff mode,” and I just don’t see a team in the East good enough to knock the Cavs off with him playing at this level. I don’t love the odds, and I might be better off just betting on them series to series, but I’ll place a small bet on them at -260 to start, and go from there.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Travis Demeritte, 2016 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Breakout

Travis Demeritte is the Minor League version of Trevor Story. Like Story, he has been red hot to start the season, triple-slashing .435/.481/1.304, with 5 homers, and 2 steals in his first 6 games at High-A. Like Story, he absolutely crushes the ball when he makes contact, but has a history of struggling to make contact in the first place. And most importantly, like Story, he has a last name that is low hanging fruit for people that like to make corny puns. Don’t worry, I’ll spare you … this time. So why isn’t everyone hyping Demeritte to death like they are Story? Well, probably because nobody plays in a MiLB Fantasy League. But we do play in Dynasty Leagues, and now is the time to jump on the Demeritte bandwagon.

The Texas Rangers selected Demeritte, 2B, out of high school with the 30th overall pick in the 2013 draft. He showed his considerable talent right off the bat, putting up an .856 OPS, with 4 homers, and 5 steals in 39 Rookie ball games. It also came with a 28% K%. He then cranked up the power and strikeouts even more in 2014 at Single-A, jacking 25 homers with a 36.7% K%. Even with his considerable strikeout issues, the power surge made Demeritte an interesting sleeper candidate going into 2015. It turned out he would have bigger problems than strikeouts to deal with.

After displaying that same power/strikeout profile in the first 48 games of 2015, Demeritte got popped for taking the banned substance furosemide, a known masking agent for other drugs, and was suspended for 80 games. Coming into 2016, it was fair to wonder how much of that power was natural, and how much was drug induced. But as you know from my opener, we don’t have to wonder anymore, as the power is very real (or he found a better masking agent). He is still striking out 29.6% of the time, but if Story has taught us anything, it is that players with strikeout issues can succeed if they smack the crap outta the ball when they do make contact, and Demeritte does just that.

I give myself 3 demerits for not being higher on Demeritte this preseason (sorry, I couldn’t resist!), but any questions I had coming into this year have been answered. He is a boom or bust power hitting middle infielder with opportunistic speed. If you don’t mind some strikeout risk with your prospects, Demeritte is certainly one to jump on before word of his scorching start gets out.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Fantasy Baseball Minor League Prospect Rundown: Week 1

Every Monday, I will be running down some of the notable performances from around the Minor Leagues over the past week, or anything that might have caught my eye in general. Here is the 2016 week 1 fantasy baseball Minor League prospect rundown:

Yoan Moncada BOS, 2B – Triple-slashing, .308/.471/.462, with 4 BBs, 1 K and 4 steals in his first 18 PA at High-A. As a lifelong Yankees fan, I still get a sick feeling in my stomach whenever I see his name. He should be ours!

Tyler Glasnow PIT, RHP – Did Tyler Glasnow things in his season debut at Triple-A (5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks). It’s only a matter of time before there is an opening for him in Pittsburgh’s rotation.

Andrew Benintendi BOS, OF – Picked up right where he left off last season, putting up a .938 OPS in his first 4 games at High-A. He could have easily started the year at Double-A like many of the other top college hitters from the 2015 class, so I would expect Benintendi to continue to put up impressive numbers until he gets his first real challenge at Double-A.

Jose Berrios MIN, RHP – Struck out 9 batters in 5 IP in his season debut at Triple-A. He walked 4 as well, but considering his past history of excellent control and command, I wouldn’t even blink an eye at that. His numbers should look ridiculous this year against overmatched minor league hitters. He is MLB ready.

J.P. Crawford PHI, SS – Off to a slow start at Double-A, slashing .235/.316/.235, with 4 Ks and 2 BBs in 4 games played. Obviously a 4 game sample is meaningless, but I’m including him in the rundown just as a reminder that his value in real life is higher than fantasy.

Joey Gallo TEX, 3B – Is now definitely being groomed to replace Adrian Beltre at 3B in 2017. He is off to strong start at Triple-A, putting up a 1.317 OPS in his first 4 games, which is nice to see after he struggled there last season (.739 OPS in 53 games).

Brendan Rodgers COL, SS – Rodgers is the forgotten Colorado SS of the future (hello Trevor Story), but while the present belongs to Story, the future may very well still belong to Rodgers. The uber-talented Rodgers has looked good in his first taste of full season pro ball, slashing .333/.375/.600 and hitting one homer in 16 PA.

Carson Fulmer CHW, RHP – Fulmer got absolutely destroyed in his season debut at Double-A, giving up 5 ERs in 2.2 IP, walking 4, and striking out none. He worked the entire game from the stretch, which is something pitchers usually do when they are trying to simplify their mechanics. It is only one start, but this is definitely something to keep your eye on.

Aaron Judge NYY, OF – After struggling with strikeouts at Triple-A last season, it would have been nice for Judge to get off to a better start this year, but it was not to be. He struck out 5 times and walked once in his first 3 games. It is too early to judge Judge (and you thought bad “Story” puns were all you had to worry about, hah!), but improving his strikeout rate will be something to watch for the rest of the season.

Victor Robles WASH, OF – He is dominating full season pro ball exactly like he dominated Rookie ball and Low-A. This kid is looking like a good bet to be the next big thing.

Anderson Espinoza BOS, RHP – 5.0 IP, 0 ERs, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, and 4 Ks in his first start at Single-A this season. The pitching version of Robles. These guys are the not too distant future.

Dillon Tate TEX, RHP – 4.2 IP, 0 ERs, 5 Hits, 1 BB, and 6 Ks in his season debut at Single-A. He is still a bit of an unknown with only one year as a starter under his belt, so the more information we get on him the better. Considering he is much more advanced than Single-A hitters, this might not tell us much either.

David Dahl COL, OF – 2 homers and a steal in his first 4 games at Double-A. If he can stay healthy, this might be the beginning of a monster season for Dahl.

Raul Mondesi Jr. KC, SS – This is an important year for Mondesi to establish his bat as a legitimate threat. This is the first year he will be repeating a Minor League level (Double-A), and while he is still much younger than his competition, he isn’t so young that his offensive struggles can be completely ignored anymore. He’s been good so far, triple-slashing .313/.353/.688, with 2 homers and a steal in his first 4 games. If he keeps this up, he will be a top 10 prospect by the end of the season.

Jacob Faria TB, RHP – 5.2 IP, 3 ERs, 3 Hits, 1 BB, and 8 Ks in his season debut at Double-A. If he can continue to maintain the strikeout numbers he put up at Double-A in the second half of last season, his prospect status will be on the rise.

Ozzie Albies ATL, SS – Atlanta pushed the 19-year-old Albies all the way to Double-A this season, and he has responded to the tune of a .389 BA in 19 PA. Atlanta is stacked at SS with both Albies and 2015 1st overall pick Dansby Swanson (who started the year at High-A), so it will be interesting to see how this all shakes out down the line.

Tyler Jay MIN, LHP – Minnesota took a shot on the college reliever Jay with the 6th pick of the 2015 draft, and he impressed in his first outing at High-A (5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks). He will be a fast riser if he keeps turning in performances like this.

Travis Demeritte TEX, 2B – The 30th overall pick in the 2013 draft, the 21-year-old Demeritte has already ripped 4 homers in his first 4 games at High-A. That now gives him 38 homers in 214 career Minor League games, to go along with 22 steals. He has major strikeout issues, but Demeritte is certainly one to watch.

Edwin Diaz SEA, RHP – Seattle’s top pitching prospect dominated in his first appearance of the season at Double-A (6.0 IP, 0 ERs, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks). He has a 9.3 K/9 in his Minor League career, and will call the spacious confines of Safeco Field his home park. The time is probably now to grab him.

Lucas Sims ATL, RHP – The 21st overall pick in the 2012 draft, the 21-year-old Sims is looking to reestablish his prospect value after a couple of uneven years. He got off to a strong start this season by striking out 9 batters and giving up only 1 hit in 5 IP at Double-A. He has the kind of strikeout potential fantasy owners love, and a pitcher’s park waiting for him in Atlanta.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty League Prospect Sleepers

Opening Day is here! No, MLB is not having another Opening Day (they’ve already had two). Today is the kick off to the 2016 MiLB season, and for Dynasty league owners, it can be just as exciting as MLB Opening Day(s). So please take a minute to stop rosterbating over your brilliant Trevor Story pick up – who I touted way back in February as a top 30 prospect (you’re welcome), but also told you to not get too excited for this year (oops … although my concerns still stand, clearly it is ok to be excited) –  and start getting ready to find the next under hyped, underrated stud. Here are the 2016 fantasy baseball dynasty league prospect sleepers that you should keep your eye on, if you haven’t scooped them already:

1) Bobby Bradley CLE, 1B – Bradley fell to the 3rd round of the 2014 draft, but that was solely due to his big signing bonus demands, and not his talent level. All he has done is rake once reaching pro ball, jacking 8 homers in 39 rookie ball games in 2014, and 27 homers in Single-A last season. The 19-year-old Bradley will start this season with the High-A Lynchburg Hillcats, and it won’t take long before the hype starts to catch up with the talent. I ranked Bradley 18th in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

2) Derek Fisher HOU, OF – Wrote a Derek Fisher, 2016 Fantasy Prospect Sleeper article, and ranked him 20th in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

3) Josh Hader MIL, LHP – A funky delivery and bullpen concerns have kept the hype for Hader in check, but considering the position the Brewers are in right now, they have every incentive to continue to develop him as a starter. The lanky 6’3’’ Hader is a strikeout machine (10.3 K/9 in Double-A last season), who relies heavily on his big fastball. If he can show improvement with his slider and/or changeup this year, more people will turn into believers. I ranked Hader 21st in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

4) Tom Murphy COL, C – Murphy hit 20 homers in 105 games last season splitting time between Double-A and Triple-A, and then he hit 3 dingers in just 39 MLB PA. His defense has also improved to the point that nobody doubts he can stick at catcher. Nick Hundley’s contract runs out after this season, so the door is wide open for Murphy to win the starting job next year. His high strikeout numbers are the reason he is not more highly touted, but a poor average in not a killer at the catcher position, especially with the power he should provide at Coors. I ranked Murphy 32nd in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

5) Alen Hanson PIT, 2B – Wrote an Alen Hanson, 2016 Fantasy Prospect Sleeper article, and ranked him 33rd in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

6) Willie Calhoun LAD, 2B/OF – Covered Calhoun in my Finding the Next A.J. Reed article, and ranked him 43rd in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

7) Harrison Bader STL, OF – Covered Bader in my Finding the Next A.J. Reed article, and ranked him 51st in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

8) Jacob Faria TB, RHP – Put up a pitching line of 2.51/1.09/96 in 75.1 IP in Double-A last season. Doesn’t have the big fastball, but his delivery creates a lot of deception. Also gets a bump due to Tampa Bay’s success with developing pitchers like him. If he can keep up those strikeout numbers this season, people won’t be sleeping on him anymore. I ranked Faria 68th in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

9) Jack Flaherty STL, RHP – We can “own” prospects in fantasy, but we still need to rely on actual baseball teams to develop them, and there isn’t a better team at player development than the St. Louis Cardinals. Flaherty struck out 97 batters in 95 IP in his first full season of pro ball at Single-A. His fastball sat in the low 90’s last year, but if it ticks up a bit after adding strength this offseason, he could rocket up prospect lists. I ranked Flaherty 69th in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

10) Justus Sheffield CLE, LHP – Cleveland has been on fire of late developing starting pitchers. Time to jump on the bandwagon. Sheffield struck out 138 batters in 127.2 IP in Single-A last season, and actually got better as the season went along, dominating in August and September. He is undersized for a starter at 5’10’’, which is probably why he has flown under the radar, but if he keeps putting up big strikeout numbers, he will force people to take notice. I ranked Sheffield 70th in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

11) Tyler O’Neill SEA, OF – Wrote a Tyler O’Neill, 2016 Fantasy Prospect Sleeper article, and ranked him 78th in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

12) Austin Byler ARI, 1B – Covered Byler in my Finding the Next A.J. Reed article, and ranked him 99th in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post. (He is suspended for the first 50 games after testing positive for an amphetamine stimulant.)

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Will Arnett, Netflix’s Flaked Review

It is hard to imagine Will Arnett playing any other character than the imbecile. He did it so well as Gob Bluth in Arrested Development, and he has since built an entire career on that character archetype. He once said the reason he got into comedy in the first place, was because his attempts at dramatic acting were met with laughter anyway, so why not go with it. But a decade after Arrested Development got cancelled, it was high time for Arnett to jump back into the dramatic deep end, and he has done just that with Netflix’s new dramedy Flaked.

The first act of Flaked comes off like a watered down version of Californication. Arnett plays a recovering alcoholic, living a romanticized deadbeat lifestyle in Venice Beach. He is an easy going ladies’ man, and everyone’s best friend. He has a smooth line for every situation. But the show is much more than it appears on the surface. There is a deeper, darker side to both Arnett’s character, and the seemingly directionless storylines that are first introduced. You need to let this show grow on you, as it might not catch you right from the get go.

Whatever reservations you will most likely have seeing Arnett play a (semi) serious character, you won’t have the same issues with the supporting cast. All of them absolutely nail their parts. David Sullivan plays the role of Arnett’s bumbling best friend, Ruth Kearney plays his main love interest, Robert Wisdom is cast as the wise friend (maybe there is something to this changing your last name business, after all), and veteran actress Heather Graham brings some gravitas to the show in her role as Arnett’s ex-wife. As for Arnett himself, after the initial shock of seeing him deliver sincere lines that are actually meant to be taken sincerely, he does eventually win you over, and makes it easy to buy into, and even sympathize with his character.

Flaked is best categorized as a slow burner, with each passing episode adding new layers to the previously surface level only interactions. You can’t fully appreciate the nuance of the show until all of the cards have been laid out on the table. It isn’t perfect, and it might take some time to get used to Arnett in this new type of role, but the payoff is worth it in the end. I’ll give Flaked 4 out of 5 stars, and definitely recommend that you give it a shot, if you haven’t already.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 MLB Opening Day Preview

Only Major League Baseball can manage to make Opening Day confusing. It isn’t enough for them to have an extremely convoluted system for the amateur draft/international spending limits, team control/arbitration rules, free agency/qualifying offers, and for the all-star game/World Series home field advantage, but they also need to have two Opening Days! So which one is the real Opening Day? Neither. As the old saying goes, “if you have two Opening Days, you don’t have one.” Or is that for quarterbacks? Either way, here is what to watch for on the day formerly known as Opening Day:

Houston Astros at New York Yankees – Game has been postponed until tomorrow. Smart move for MLB and ESPN to bank on New York weather in April for their opening day, marquee game.

San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers – San Francisco has won the World Series every other year since 2010. They are due. As for Milwaukee, they are far off from competing for a World Series, but they have done a great job rebuilding so far. Talented young slugger Domingo Santana will bat leadoff today vs lefty Madison Bumgarner. Santana triple-slashed .288/.373/.577 in 52 AB’s vs. lefties last season.

Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles – Lots of pure power in this matchup. Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Pedro Alvarez, Byung-ho Park, and Miguel Sano are the headliners. Playing in Baltimore, this entire series could be bombs away if the weather cooperates.

Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers – Battle of the aging aces! Felix Hernandez vs. Cole Hamels.

Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves – Is there a more exciting pitcher/position player combo than Max Scherzer and Bryce Harper? I don’t think so.

Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Indians – The $30-million-dollar ace (Price) vs. the $4.7-million-dollar ace (Kluber). Gotta love baseball’s draconian team control rules.

Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds – Tankapalooza. The winner of this game is really the loser, in the battle to the bottom of the standings.

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres – If Yasiel Puig can get his act together, Kershaw/Puig can rival Scherzer/Harper for most exciting duo.

Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays – Drew Smyly vs. Toronto’s death on lefties lineup will be a fun one to watch. If Smyly shines in this one, the sky is the limit for him.

Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks – The Arizona doubters will be ready to pounce at the first sign of weakness, so it is important for Grienke to get them off to a good start. On Colorado’s side, it will be interesting to see if Trevor Story can carry his Spring Training success over to the regular season.

Chicago White Sox at Oakland A’s –  Strikeout artist Chris Sale vs. control artist Sonny Gray, in a classic battle of power vs. finesse.

Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Angels – The Cubs have finally completed their 107 year rebuild. This could be the year they break the curse.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 NCAA Tournament Final 4 Picks

And then there were 4. North Carolina. Syracuse. Villanova. Oklahoma. Who will prevail? Nobody knows … except for me, and I’m about to tell you down below:

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Syracuse Orange
Spread: NC -9

About 53% of the bets are coming in on the underdog Syracuse. I warned you during football season to beware of the public underdog, and the same applies here. The relatively high 9-point spread seems like Vegas is goading us into taking ‘Cuse, without them having to give up double digit points. North Carolina is 11-0, and has an average margin of victory of 15.8 points when playing on a neutral court this season. They have firmly established themselves as the best team in college basketball during this tournament.

Syracuse has enjoyed an exciting tournament run themselves, with great comeback victories vs. Gonzaga and Virginia. But I don’t see the same heroic effort happening vs. North Carolina tomorrow night.

The Pick: Take North Carolina -9, and bank on the double digit victory like Vegas is.

Villanova Wildcats vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Spread: NOVA -2

This should be one hell of a game. National fan favorite Buddy Hield leads the way for Oklahoma, and he has more than lived up to the hype in the tourney so far. But strong play from his supporting cast is the reason the Sooners have made it this far, and they will need to continue to play well in order to beat a strong Villanova squad.

Nova has been slept on for most of this tournament after several years of disappointing early exits, and they’ve made us all regret it in the form of our busted brackets (thanks Kansas). They have played like they were deserving of a #1 seed, and it is going to take a heck of an effort to knock them off.

The pick: I can’t deny I am a fan of Buddy Hield, and I have Oklahoma going all the way in my (3rd) bracket. I wouldn’t bet on this game, but if I did, I wouldn’t bet against Hield. Give me Oklahoma plus the 2 points.

*If these picks turn out wrong … April Fool’s!

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Felix Hernandez for $46!?!?

I sit on the edge of my shitty wooden chair as the bidding for Felix Hernandez blows past all reasonable estimates. Said chair is at the head of a large, boardroom style table, overflowing with burgers, corned beef hash, cheese fries, beer, and 12 scheming, devious fantasy baseball fanatics who I call my friends. It is our annual dynasty league auction draft located in a private backroom at Smith & Wollensky’s Steakhouse in Manhattan, and you can cut the tension with a butter knife right now (because butter knives are all we have; if you thought $100/person would get you steak at a steakhouse, you thought wrong). The bidding for Felix is down to two people, me and Greg.

“I’ll go $41,” a stone faced Greg announces from the other end of the table.

“$42,” I quickly fire back. The time for games is over. Felix is the last available “ace” on the board. The only other aces who were free agents in this year’s auction, David Price and Zach Grienke, already sold for $45 and $44, respectively ($260 budget). I bowed out of the bidding on both of those guys once the price hit $40, thinking I might be able to get Felix at a slight discount. Hah!

A brief silence falls over the room. “$43,” Greg finally squeaks out, sounding pretty unsure of himself.

I know a bunch of teams have cap space this year, but this is getting out of control. Felix Hernandez had a down year last year! There are red flags! I’m supposed to get him at a discount, goddamnit! I bite down hard, and try to summon some throwaway wisdom to help me rationalize the reckless bid I am about to make. “Fortune favors the bold,” I meekly blurt out to the room. “$44.”

The silence stretches on for longer this time. Greg looks like he might be ready to call it quits. “Alright man, I think I’m going to …” he stops mid-sentence. “Actually, nevermind, I’m going $45.”

You have got to be kidding me! Just at this moment, our waiter rolls in a cart filled with the 12 tequila shots we ordered earlier. I am at my wit’s end. Throwaway wisdom is not going to do it anymore. I need liquid courage! I stand up from this fucking horribly uncomfortable wooden chair, grab one of the glasses filled with a little too much tequila, and fire the shot back like a champ. “Felix Hernandez for 46!?!?” I shout out to the amused faces staring back at me from around the table. I did it! Felix is all but mine. No way Greg goes $47, he almost quit at $45!

“$46.50,” Greg says …

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Trevor Story and Spring Training Exploits

Trevor Story is the 30th ranked prospect in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post that I wrote in early February. I’m higher on him than most. In fact, I think I’m higher on him than any other prospect list I have read. But if you didn’t acquire Story at good value back in February, it is probably too late, as he has absolutely destroyed spring training pitching to the tune of, .378/.451/.911, with 6 homers in 51 PA. It seems like everyone has boarded the hype train. But it brings up the question, should his spring training stats matter?

In the sense that it has won him the starting SS job in Colorado, at least until/if Jose Reyes returns, his spring stats clearly matter. And for people that were either completely unaware of Story, or very down on his potential, then yeah, his monster spring stats should certainly put him on your radar. But for those of us who already knew and believed in the 20/20 upside, should his fantastic spring boost his stock even more? In other words, should we consider him a top 12 SS option for this season? After digging through some minor league stats from past years, the conclusion I came to is that I’m not so sure it should matter at all.

It didn’t take much searching before I found a good comparable, Mike Zunino. Just last spring, Zunino triple-slashed, .353/.431/.882, and jacked 7 homers in 58 spring training PA. Maybe this was a sign that the talented young hitter would finally break out? Nope. He followed that up with a regular season line of .174/.230/.300. The spring stats meant nothing. Similar to Story, Zunino was a young hitter with real strikeout issues. It isn’t a perfect comp, as Zunino can’t draw walks quite as well as Story, and had a history of struggling in the big leagues already. But what it does say to me, is that even an extreme case of spring training success will not guarantee a safe floor, let alone it being a harbinger for great success in the regular season.

There are many more examples. Well regarded hitting prospect Brandon Drury triple-slashed, .435/.533/.957, with 3 homers in 30 spring training PA last year. He then went on to put up a .756 OPS, with 5 total homers in 567 minor league PA split between Double-A and Triple-A, before hitting .214/.254/.375 in his MLB cup of coffee last September. Is he still considered a good hitting prospect? Yes. But were those spring training stats a good indicator for what he might do in his first taste of the majors? No.

We all know the old adage that spring training stats don’t matter, but it doesn’t stop us from getting drawn in year after year. I needed to dig into past spring training stats to remind myself of that. Pitchers are working on specific things and have no interest in making adjustments to what the hitter is doing. If Trevor Story wasn’t on your radar before, consider this his coming out party, but if he was, his hot spring training shouldn’t mean much to you. He is a talented fantasy prospect (top 30 in my book) who can surely surprise right out of the gate, but the more likely scenario is that there will be some bumps along the way. Add in the uncertainly surrounding Jose Reyes’ situation, and I don’t think Story has a great chance of cracking the top 12 this season. For 2016, I will give him a projection of 55/13/51/.250/8. For dynasty leagues, the strong spring only reinforces my high hopes for Story, and I will stick with my prime projection of 79/20/83/.258/14.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)