Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on August 7, 2023August 11, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 477 August 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

It’s Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week over on the Patreon, and as usual, I’m going over 400 deep with blurbs for just about everyone. Top 26 are free here on the Brick Wall. July-Off-Season Rankings are in parenthesis, in that order. Here is the Top 477 August 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 357 MID-SEASON DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 17 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (8/3/23)
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/28/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (7/14/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 29.1 – Ohtani is inexplicably getting even better with career bests in EV (94.7 MPH), EV against (86.5 MPH), xwOBA (.437), and K% (23.9%) … and all that to still miss the playoffs

2) (2) (2) (2) (3) (3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 25.9 – It’s insane that Acuna just became an elite contact hitter out of nowhere. He has a 12.2% K% after his previous career best was 23.6%, and he’s doing it while hitting the ball harder than he ever has with a 95.1 MPH EV.

3) (3) (8) (24) (24) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.11 – The shoulder scare seems to be behind him, although he hasn’t been quite as good post break with a .753 OPS in 22 games. It hasn’t slowed him down on the bases though with 10 steals over that time period.

4) (4) (5) (7) (9) (7) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, SS/OF, 24.6 – .615 OPS in his last 36 games. Maybe he needed the PED’s after all, or maybe he’s just been unlucky with a .385 xwOBA vs. .341 wOBA

5) (5) (4) (3) (2) (2) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 22.7 – We’ve been waiting for the heater all year and it might finally be here with 5 homers and a 1.032 OPS in his last 15 games. He hits the ball too hard (92.8 MPH EV) and is too fast (29.6 ft/sec sprint) for him not to get hot like this eventually

6) (12) (13) (13) (13) (8) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS/3B, 23.2 – I’ve been imploring you to buy in every monthly update, and the blow up has finally come for Witt with 8 homers and a 1.001 OPS in his last 30 games. The underlying numbers said this was inevitable

Shadow 6) (5) (5) (3) (3) (6) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.1

7) (8) (9) (4) (4) (6) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 26.7 – The quietest elite player in the game. He’s knocking on the door of a 30/30 season

8) (6) (8) (11) (7) (5) Juan Soto SDP, OF, 24.9 – .421 OBP is 2nd to only Ronald Acuna (.425)

9) (7) (6) (9) (12) (16) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 22.6 – Coming out of his slump with 4 homers and a 1.241 OPS in his last 9 games. He’s actually been on the unlucky side this season with a .354 xwOBA vs. .339 wOBA

10) (19) (23) (76) (72) (64) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.7 – He’s on a full season pace for about 28 homers and 51 stolen bases, and while the hit tool risk is real, his 29.5% whiff% is actually not bad at all. Trea motherf’ing Turner is swinging and missing more than Cruz has this year (29.7% whiff%). Ranking Cruz 10th may be aggressive, but I can only be honest, and his combination of youth and upside is one I’m simply not passing up

11) (9) (7) (6) (5) (4) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 26.1 – Returned from an oblique injury no worse for the wear with 4 homers and a 1.189 OPS in his last 10 games. If you don’t care about steals, he can rank as high as 3rd overall

12) (10) (10) (5) (6) (9) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 24.5 – .387 xwOBA vs. .337 wOBA. He doesn’t have a history of underperforming his underlying numbers. Whatever you do, don’t sell low

13) (13) (18) (21) (17) (17) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 30.10 – Not only hasn’t he slowed down, he’s taken it up a notch with a 1.249 OPS and 11 homers in his last 30 games. He’s on pace for the 2nd best year of his career

14) (14) (19) (15) (15) (12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 30.11 – Down goes Anderson … Down goes Anderson

15) (15) (16) (10) (10) (14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 26.9 – 7 homers with a 1.052 OPS in his last 26 games, and he also stole his first 2 bags of the season over that time period

16) (21) (41) (51) (27) (30) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 26.0 – Robert is just about the lone bright spot in an otherwise disastrous and embarrassing year for Chicago. He’s on pace for 44 homers and 20 steals

17) (22) (40) (50) (82) (41) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 26.7 – He debuted so young that you forget he’s just entering his man muscle years. 37 homer pace is set to shatter his previous career high of 30

18) (23) (31) (17) (16) (15) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 22.5 – I keep seeing Harris included in trades where he isn’t getting nearly his due respect. He’s slashing .369/.417/.585 with 2 homers, 2 steals, and a 11/6 K/BB in his last 20 games. He crushes the ball, he’s fast, he has plus contact rates, and he’s still only 22 years old

19) (24) (17) (24) (36) (36) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 24.9 – The undisputed top dog with a 39.3% K% and 97.3 MPH heat. Gausman’s 32.8% K% is a distant 2nd among qualified starters

20) (25) (25) (29) (37) (37) Freddie Freeman LAD, 1B, 33.11 – In win now mode, I wouldn’t argue putting Freeman 3rd overall despite being almost 34 years old. One of the most consistently great players of our generation

21) (11) (12) (12) (11) (13) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 25.4 – Dodged a bullet with his knee injury not considered serious. What is serious though is that he all of a sudden became slow with a below average 27 ft/sec sprint, leading to only 3 steals in a year where everyone else is running

22) (16) (11) (14) (8) (10) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 31.3 – Returned early from a torn ligament in his big toe even though he isn’t 100% yet and is understandably struggling with a .685 OPS in his last 9 games. Maybe they should shut it down and let him heal up for the next 8 years of his mega contract

23) (18) (14) (20) (20) (18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 30.11 – The guy has an elite .378 xwOBA in a year where he clearly is well below 100% returning early from Tommy John surgery. There is little doubt the homer power will fully return in 2024

24) (26) (27) (31) (38) (38) Corey Seager TEX, SS, 29.2 – The career year continues with 8 homers in his last 15 games. His .441 xwOBA is behind only Judge and Acuna. I started Seager’s Top 1,000 blurb this off-season by writing, “Seager doesn’t get the respect he deserves in the fantasy world,” and I ended it by writing, “If he hits .300 next year with 35 homers it wouldn’t be surprising at all.” He’s blowing past even my high expectations

25) (41) (46) (74) (101) (106) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.8 – Destroying Double-A, slashing .396/.448/.642 with 3 homers, 0 steals, and a 13.8%/8.6% K%/BB% in 13 games. He has plenty of competition for this top spot with Chourio right on his heels, but he’s not giving an inch

26) (51) (79) (73) (58) (51) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.5 – This man does not like his balls tacked as he’s back to going nuclear with the regular ball, slashing .424/.480/.717 with 6 homers, 9 steals, and a 12/9 K/BB in his last 21 games

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on July 31, 2023August 3, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/31/23)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/31/23):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 473 JULY DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 357 JULY DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 17 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (8/3/23)
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/28/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (7/14/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

Nolan Schanuel LAA, 1B, 21.5 – I remember when I started writing back in 2015, the pro debuts for recently drafted players were always poo pooed. The default line that every prospect writer gave when asked about the pro performance of the most recent draft class was always some variation of “small sample size,” and they would never deviate from their pre draft evaluation of a player. That never made sense to me, as it seemed obvious that what a player did when they actually started facing pro pitching with a wood bat was very important, actionable information. Well, the prospect landscape has changed drastically over the last 8 years, and now almost every prospect writer puts the proper weight on pro debuts. Valuations can change in a hurry in both directions. Just look at Dalton Rushing and Jacob Berry, likely the two biggest movers in opposite directions in last year’s draft class based on their debuts. Keeping an eye on the recent draftees is one of the most fun/important things you can do at this point of the season. So on that note, let’s kick things off with keeping an eye on the 11th overall pick in the draft, Nolan Schanuel. In true Angels fashion, while everyone else is taking things slow with their draft picks, Schanuel has already skyrocketed to Double-A. This looks like a Zach Neto situation all over again. He’s now the favorite to be the first one to reach the majors from his draft class, and he has the type of extremely advanced plate approach to succeed quickly. He put up a 1.190 OPS with a 1/5 K/BB in 5 games split between rookie and Single-A, but his first game at Double-A was a bit of a “welcome to pro ball, kid” moment, going 0 for 4 with 3 K’s. He bounced back yesterday though with a 3 for 4 night, including a triple and 0/2 K/BB. We’ll quickly find out how good of a plate approach he really has after putting up elite strikeout to walk rates in Conference USA. He ranked 15th overall on my Top 50 2024 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon) and is looking like one of top picks if you want a quick mover.

Max Clark DET, OF, 18.6 – Clark made his pro debut in rookie ball, and he showed off his pu pu platter of skills all in one hit. He ripped a ball the opposite way to deep left centerfield off a lefty, and then showed off the wheels by easily legging out a triple. He went 1 for 4 with 2 K’s on the day. After the consensus top 3 are off the board (Crews, Langford, Skenes), I would be all over Clark, and he already ranked 14th overall on the Mid-Season Top 357 Dynasty Prospects Rankings that dropped last week on the Patreon.

Matt Shaw CHC, SS, 21.8 – There is a consensus Top 5 in the draft (Crews, Langford, Skenes, Clark, Jenkins), but I think Shaw is knocking on the door of that top tier as my top target after that. He’s unsurprisingly crushing rookie ball, going 4 for 8 with 1 homer, 1 double, 2 steals, and a 1/2 K/BB in 3 games. I love his little man leg kick, which is the same swing that made me fall in love with Zach Neto and Spencer Steer. I’m all in on him, ranking him 43rd overall on the Mid-Season Top 357 Prospects Rankings.

Tommy Troy ARI, 3B/2B, 21.6 – Many people have Troy over Shaw, and he did also get taken one pick ahead of Shaw in the draft, but I don’t think Troy has quite the fantasy upside that Shaw has. To Troy’s credit, he’s also handling his business in rookie ball like he should, going 4 for 8 with 1 steal and a 1/2 K/BB in 3 games. Other than the Angels, teams are rightfully taking it slow by starting guys off in rookie ball. There is no reason to not allow them to get their footing slowly in pro ball before promoting them to higher levels.

Chase Davis STL, OF, 21.7 – St. Louis didn’t take the rookie ball first route with Davis, sending him straight to full season ball, and maybe they should have re thought that decision. The hit tool was really the one concern with Davis, and it’s rearing it’s ugly head in the early going with him putting up a 37.5% K% with a .231 BA in 8 games. He’s yet to do any damage either with 0 homers and a .644 OPS. It comes with a 18.8% BB%, which definitely eases some concerns that it’s just small sample noise and/or that he’s being too patient, but it’s still not what you want to see. It’s far too early for this to change anything, but it’s definitely something to keep an eye on.

Mitch Jebb PIT, SS, 21.2 – Selected 42nd overall, Jebb also debuted in full season ball, and unlike Davis, he’s thriving, going 8 for 14 with 2 doubles, 1 steal, and a 0/1 K/BB. He got drafted on the back of his at least plus hit/speed combo, and that profile is transferring completely in the early going. There is little to no power here, which is why he didn’t crack my Top 50, but I definitely have my eye on him with the strong early showing.

Aidan Miller PHI, SS, 19.1 – Miller is already 19 years old, and while 19 year old high school prospects aren’t my favorite to go after, he undeniably has a beastly righty swing geared for both average and power. He’s showed off that swing real quick by going 3 for 4 with 2 doubles in first first pro game in rookie ball and is 4 for 7 with 1 K over 2 games. A strong pro debut could get his hype cooking real quick, and he’s already highly touted.

Homer Bush Jr. SDP, OF, 21.9 – I’ll always have fond memories of Homer Bush as a Yankees fan. He put up a 139 wRC+ in 78 PA during that special 1998 season when I was in my sports fandom prime as a 12 year old. I don’t know why, but thinking back on those fun bench players and part time players almost brings back more nostalgia than remembering the stars. Time marches on though, and now Homer Bush is 50 years old, and it’s his sons turn to make some memories for the kids. He stepped right into rookie ball and has already popped 2 homers in 6 games, one of which was the inside the park variety. He’s also tacked on 5 steals with a 4/2 K/BB. He wasn’t highly drafted as a 4th round pick, and there is nothing he can do in rookie ball to really get the hype going as a college player, but he has the bloodlines and a fantasy friendly profile with plus speed and good feel to hit. If the power can take a jump, there is definitely potential for him to become an intriguing prospect.

Jace Jung DET, 2B, 22.9 – Jung might not have the shiny new toy excitement that the new draftees have, but he’s been quietly having a killer season that got a whole lot louder yesterday after smashing 2 homers at Double-A. He now has 3 homers with a 9/1 K/BB in 6 games at the level after handling his business at High-A with 14 homers and a 22.7%/15.3% K%/BB% in 81 games. He’ll be a no doubt Top 100 prospect in no time if he keeps this up in the upper minors, if he’s not there already.

John Cruz NYY, OF, 17.11 – I named Cruz a target in my latest Dynasty Baseball Targets article (Patreon), and he’s getting hot again after homering in 3 of his last 6 games in rookie ball as a 17 year old. He’s now slashing .264/.350/.512 with 8 homers, 6 steals, and a 23.8%/10.5% K%/BB% in 33 games. He has the elite upside to back up the numbers with a vicious lefty swing and plus athleticism at 6’3”, 171 pounds. I actually just scooped him up in my 30 team mid season prospect blind auction. I would grab him in all league sizes at this point.

Christopher Sanchez PHI, LHP, 26.7 – 5 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER, 3/2 K/BB vs. PIT. Sanchez threw a modern day no hitter right after I talked shit about him on Halp’s Dynasty Baseball Podcast: July Mailbag (Patreon) on Friday (I hit on a ton of topics in that podcast, including Jordan Walker, Riley Greene, CJ Abrams, softball batting stances, Everson Pereira, Ezequiel Duran, and many more). The fastball averaged 90.6 MPH and he put up an 11% whiff% overall. This just isn’t a profile I’m going after, and while he’s currently showing elite control with a 4.3% BB% in 47.1 IP, he’s never shown even close to this level of control in the past. If you can cash in on him for a solid prospect return before the trade deadline based on his 2.66 ERA, I would do so.

AJ Smith-Shawver ATL, RHP, 20.7 – Shawver got called back up the bigs and scuffled a bit vs. Milwaukee, going 5 IP with 4 hits, 3 ER, and a 3/4 K/BB. The fastball averaged 94.5 MPH and he put up a 21% whiff% with a traditional 4 pitch mix. He hasn’t blown the doors off the majors and he also hasn’t been that great at Triple-A (4.44 ERA in 24.1 IP), but you have to take into account that this kid should probably still be at High-A. I love the stuff, I love Atlanta’s faith in him promoting him so fast, and I love that he is even able to hold his own against advanced competition. I’m still all in on Shawver long term.

Matt Sauer NYY, RHP, 24.6 – Nobody wants to give my man Sauer any love at all, but I still stand by that this guy is going to surprise some people down the line. He threw a gem yesterday, going 5 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER, and a 7/0 K/BB at Double-A. Here he is consistently throwing mid 90’s heat with a filthy breaking ball and a solid changeup. This was his best outing of the season and he battled arm troubles which delayed the start of his year, but I can’t be the only one to see the legit talent he has in his arm. I still like him in deeper leagues.

Hayden Birdsong SFG, RHP, 21.9 – Birdsong rose to 237th overall in my latest rankings, and he had another strong outing yesterday, going 4 IP with 5 hits, 1 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB at High-A. He’s 6’4”, 215 pounds with a plus mid 90’s fastball and a 4 pitch mix with a plus slider as his best secondary. It’s led to a 3.09 ERA and 33.1%/6.6% K%/BB% in 32 IP at the level. I’m a big fan.

Heston Kjerstad BAL, OF, 24.5 – Kjerstad has quickly become a near elite prospect befitting of his 2nd overall pick draft pedigree now that he is finally healthy, and he kept it going yesterday after smoking his 7th homer in 39 games at Triple-A. He’s been utterly obliterating the upper minors all year with 18 homers and a 64/28 K/BB in 85 games. The only question is where he fits in on a loaded Orioles team and if he gets traded before the deadline.

Parker Meadows DET, OF, 23.7 – Meadows smushed his 16th homer in 97 games at Triple-A, and he’s been trying to kick that door down to the majors of late with a .960 OPS in his last 20 games. He has a fantasy friendly profile with a plus power/speed combo (15 steals) and is entering great stash territory is any league size. His time is coming.

Owen Caissie CHC, OF, 21.0 – Caissie hit his 18th homer in 84 games at Double-A, which isn’t notable because we already know about the monster power, but what is notable is that it came with 0 K’s. In fact, he’s only struck out once in his last 18 PA. It brings his K% with the regular, non tacked ball down to 27.9% in 13 games, and like I mentioned, it’s been even better over his last 4 games. He’ll always be a high K guy, but it’s looking like the over the top K% with the pre-tacked ball was not a true measure of his talent level. His stock continues to rise as one of the top power hitting prospects in the minors.

Orelvis Martinez TOR, SS, 21.6 – Speaking of one of the top power hitting prospects in the minors, Martinez demolished his 2nd homer in 10 games since getting called up to Triple-A, and he’s maintained his much improved plate approach with a 9/6 K/BB. Even with the improved plate approach I still wouldn’t expect a high BA because he’s a perpetual low BABIP guy, but the guy is going to mash at any level.

Charlie Pagliarini SEA, 3B, 22.7 – I couldn’t do this little draft class pro debut update without mentioning Pagliarini. The 19th round pick has already cracked 3 dingers in just 5 games in rookie ball, and the power is most certainly real with him cracking 24 homers in the MAAC. He was a 22 year old senior with hit tool issues, which is why he got drafted so late, and doing it in rookie ball doesn’t mean much, but it can’t hurt to at least keep him in the back of your mind.

Jared Sundstrom SEA, OF, 22.1 – Sundstrom is another one to at least keep in mind in deep leagues. The 6’3”, 225 pound 10th round pick is already making waves at Single-A after cracking a grand slam for his first pro homer and then following that up with a 2 run bomb for his 2nd. He’s also doing it with a strong 15.4% K% in 3 games. Like Pagliarini, he’s already 22 and will need to do a lot more to become someone to really go after, but his performance warrants a mention to close out this Rundown.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on July 24, 2023July 28, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Mid-Season 2023 Top 356 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings

We back for the Mid-Season Edition of the Top 356 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings over on Patreon. Top 20 free here on the Brick Wall. Only players currently in the minors were eligible for this list. The new draftees are included. Previous rankings are in parenthesis (from June through the off-season, in that order). Here is the Mid-Season 2023 Top 356 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 473 JULY DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (7/14/23)
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (6/29/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/28/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

1) (1) (2) (6) (13) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.8 – Got the call to Double-A and just continues to cement his top dog status with 1 homer, a 15% K% and 146 wRC+ in 9 games. He better keep it up though, because he has someone nipping at his heels …

2) (3) (5) (4) (3) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.4 – New ball, new Chourio … or should I say old ball, old Chourio. He’s back to tearing up the minors with a 1.367 OPS, 3 homers and 5 steals in 9 games at Double-A post break. I’m tempted to put him back over Holliday

3) (2) (6) (3) (7) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 21.0 – Lawlar ranked 13th on my Top 26 Prospects to Stash for 2023 Only (Patreon). He’s been dominating Double-A for months now with a .979 OPS in his last 40 games, he’s already 21 years old, Perdomo is due for regression, and Arizona is fighting for a playoff spot.

4) (4) (7) (14) (8) James Wood WAS, OF, 20.10 – .208 BA with a 31.6% K% in 41 games at Double-A shows the hit tool risk is real, but I wouldn’t let it scare you off too much as the 6’6”, 240 pound Wood is the next head exploding, elite athlete that will make mainstream baseball fans go crazy when he does get the call

5) (5) (11) (47) (92) Junior Caminero TBR, 3B, 20.0 – The righty version of Rafael Devers

6) (6) (18) (23) (25) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.3 – The power is exploding with 12 homers in 68 games at Double-A, the speed is elite with 23 steals, and he’s never had any hit tool issues with a career .304 BA in the minors. He’s straight elite

7) Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 21.4 – Ranked 1st on my Top 50 2024 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon): “Let’s cut right to the chase, if any pitcher would make me pass on the type of hitting talent Crews and Langford are, it would be Paul Skenes, so I have no issue going Skenes first, but with how an entire pitcher’s career trajectory can be changed on a single pitch, I just can’t take that risk. Selected 2nd overall, Crews is built like a solid rock at 6’0”, 203 pounds, and he swings the bat so fast and powerfully it almost looks like he’s using an illegally light bat (he’s not, at least I don’t think he is ha). The ball explodes off it on contact. The swing and hard hit ability are so impressive that I get shades of Bryce Harper when watching him (obviously not a direct comp). He obliterated the SEC from the second he stepped on campus as a freshman, and he kept on improving through his junior year, slashing .380/.498/.689 with 58 homers, 23 steals, and a 146/152 K/BB in 196 career games. His floor feels like a 30+ homer bat without the best BA or tons of steals, and the ceiling might look something like the aforementioned Bryce Harper. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 103/33/108/.278/.367/.531/14″

8) Wyatt Langford TEX, OF, 21.7 – Ranked 2nd on my Top 50 2024 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon): “If you miss out on Crews, Langford not only isn’t a bad consolation prize, but he has a legit case to be taken over Crews. He might actually have half a tick more power and speed than Crews, and he’s even more built up at 6’1”, 225 pounds. He used that tremendously powerful and athletic frame to destroy the SEC over the past 2 seasons, slashing .363/.471/.746 with 47 homers, 16 steals, and a 89/92 K/BB in 134 career games. Crews strikes me as a bit looser and more of a natural athlete to my eye, and his bat speed and swing just look next level to me, so I would still pick him first, but I would be happy as a clam to sit at #2 and take whichever bat fell to me. He was selected 4th overall. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 95/34/105/.271/.355/.523/16″

9) Paul Skenes PIT, RHP, 21.1 – Ranked 3rd on my Top 50 2024 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon): “Selected 1st overall, Skenes immediately becomes the top pitching prospect in baseball who has yet to debut in the majors. If your offense is already stacked, and you are struggling to build up your pitching, I wouldn’t blame you for going Skenes over Crews and Langford, because Skenes is a generational pitching talent. His season was nothing short of jaw dropping with a pitching line of 1.69/0.75/209/20 in 122.2 IP in the SEC. His fastball sits in the upper 90’s and routinely hits over 100 MPH. His slider is elite, and while he didn’t go to his changeup as much, that pitch is also nasty. He also displayed plus control of his entire arsenal. He’s 6’6”, 235 pounds with a relatively athletic delivery and he’s a good athlete in general as evidenced by the fact he is also an excellent hitter. He had a career 1.121 OPS in 119 games in the Mountain West before transferring into the SEC. He’s as can’t miss as a pitcher can get. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 16/3.12/1.02/250 in 200 IP”

10) (17) (15) (13) (34) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.10 – He’s been a homer machine since returning from a wrist injury with 6 homers in 26 games at Double-A. The homer uptick is the last thing we needed to see with his mature plate approach and plus speed

11) (13) (14) (41) (30) Noelvi Marte CIN, SS, 21.8 – Called up to Triple-A and isn’t having any issues with a 112 wRC+, 1 homer, 3 steals, and a 19.5% K% in 17 games. He’s shaping up to be an above average contributor in every category

12) (42) (48) (119) (80) Everson Pereira NYY, OF, 22.3 – Called up to Triple-A and is rolling with 4 homers and a 23.7% K% in 13 games. He has a 92.9 MPH EV at the level. He’s in position for a call up with the Yanks scuffling offense, and he can make a legit fantasy impact if he does get the call

13) (14) (16) (15) (10) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.6 – I’m going to keep buying a 20 year old at Double-A who is showing off a nasty power (12 homers)/speed (25 steals)/OBP (.348 OBP) combo. Don’t expect a high BA though with a .219 BA and 27.1% K%

14) Max Clark DET, OF, 18.6 – Ranked 4th on my Top 50 2024 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon): Clark is the 2023 draft version of Pete Crow Armstrong and Corbin Carroll, two guys who I was the high man on in their first year player draft class, although Clark actually got the respect he deserved by getting selected 3rd overall. Maybe the success of those aforementioned players paved the way for a guy like Clark to get valued correctly. As you can tell from the comps, double plus speed with a plus hit tool and developing power is what you are buying. He’s a pretty thick and muscular 6’1”, 190 pounds, so I don’t think you have to squint too hard to see legitimate power developing down the line, even if he’s more a line drive hitter currently. 5×5 BA leagues are going to be his bread and butter, but like Carroll, he can be a beast regardless of league type. He has elite dynasty asset upside. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 93/18/72/.288/.346/.435/39

15) (20) (19) (31) (31) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 20.7 – .221 BABIP is the only issue at Double-A. He was the Walker Jenkins of his draft class …

16) Walker Jenkins MIN, OF, 18.4 – Ranked 5th on my Top 50 2024 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon): Selected 5th overall, the 6’3”, 215 pounds Jenkins has that sweet lefty swing that just oozes offensive potential. It’s athletic, quick, under control, powerful, smooth … I can go on and on. It’s hard to watch this guy hit and not completely fall in love. It has the potential for plus hit and plus power at peak, and he’s also a good athlete with above average run times. It’s the type of profile that can be an elite dynasty asset a la Kyle Tucker. If your dynasty league leans more towards power than speed, I can see scooping Jenkins over Clark. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 89/30/97/.270/.340/.514/14

17) (16) (13) (12) (16) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 20.11 – Returned from biceps inflammation and looked healthy in his first rehab outing in rookie ball, going 2 perfect innings with 3 K’s. Injury risk is just part of the equation when you deal in pitching prospects

18) (NA) (27) (128) (328) AJ Smith-Shawver ATL, RHP, 20.5 – Sent back down to Triple-A after a solid MLB debut. The fact he even made it to the majors is incredible considering how fast he flew through the minors at only 20 years old

19) (30) (29) (49) (36) Tink Hence STL, RHP, 20.11 – Got called up to Double-A and has a 1.80 ERA with a 18%/6.6% K%/BB% in 15 IP, going 5 IP in each outing. The stuff is fire, he is starting to go deeper into games, and now he’s performing in the upper minors

20) (26) (31) (77) (247) Heston Kjerstad BAL, OF, 24.5 – One of the premier hit/power prospects in the minors with a .344 BA and 5 homers in 33 games at Triple-A

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on July 19, 2023July 28, 2023 by Michael Halpern

The Wednesday Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/19/23)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays (and I guess Wednesdays sometimes when I get jammed up, ha) throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Wednesday Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/19/23):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 473 JULY DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 331 JUNE DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 50 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (7/14/23)
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (6/29/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JUNE MAILBAG! (6/27/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

*I was on an extended weekend family trip on Monday and Tuesday that I thought I was going to be able to write during but it turned out I couldn’t. My bad.

Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 21.7 – When I ranked Alvarez 92nd overall on the Updated July Top 473 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), he was in the midst of slumping, but I didn’t let it scare me off him, and he’s been molten hot since. He went 2 for 3 with a 108.6 MPH homer off Lucas Gioltio and a 106.5 MPH homer of Tanner Banks. It was his 18th and 19th homers of the year in 69 games, and he now has a 7 homers with a 1.363 OPS in 11 July games. He leads all catchers in the homer category and he’s done it in far less at bats. This is just the beginning.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand CIN, 1B/3B, 23.6 – That unsurprisingly didn’t take long. Strand walloped his first MLB homer in his 2nd game with a 426 foot, 105.8 MPH bomb. How could anyone have guessed a guy who hit 20 homers with a .331 BA in 67 games at Triple-A would be good? Maybe it was that extra month or two at Triple-A that really put the finishing touches on him 😉

Bryce Elder ATL, RHP, 24.0 – In the easiest regression call of all time, Elder had his 2nd clunker in a row, going 6 IP with 12 ER and a 4/5 K/BB (5 ER in 2.2 IP last night). This is why I just never really bought into him, and while he can still be a decent fantasy starter, his 4.12 xERA has always been more indicative of his true talent level.

Lazaro Montes SEA, OF, 18.8 – Montes is officially going full breakout after cracking 2 homers yesterday and 3 homers in his last 2 games at stateside rookie ball. He’s improved on his danger zone K% of 33.2% in 2022, bringing it down to a not horrific 27.9% this year, and he’s still walking a ton with a 23.1% BB%. It’s all added up to a 145 wRC+ in 26 games. He’s right on track to become an elite power hitting prospect.

Sebastian Walcott TEX, SS, 17.3 – 3 for 4 with a double, and most importantly, he didn’t strike out once. The strikeouts are the only blemish on his profile with a 29%/4.3% K%/BB% in 15 games in stateside rookie ball, but considering he’s still only 17 years old, and his otherwise insane production (6 homers, 6 steals, and a 181 wRC+) it is very easy to overlook. He was my #1 international prospect target, hyping him hard (with a side of Joendry Vargas who is also killing it in the DSL right now) in my First Year Player Draft Target and Strategy Guide (Patreon) all the way back on January 5th, writing, “Sebastian Walcott TEX, SS, 17.1/ Joendry Vargas LAD, SS, 17.5 – I love searching for that relatively underrated international prospect. The guy who isn’t getting hyped up at the very top of the class but I think should be. It was Alexander Ramirez for me in 2020 (big hit), Maikol Hernandez in 2021 (oof), Lazaro Montes in 2022 (looking good), and in 2023, it’s Sabastian Walcott. This dude looks like a next level athlete in the sparse Youtube videos out there. It’s what made me fall in love so much with Ramirez and Montes, and that was worked out for me. Walcott even stands out relative to the other elite athletes in his class. Vargas is getting some more rankings love than Walcott, but still isn’t really talked about like the very top guys yet. He’s also a good international target.” Walcott started to get a lot more love later in the off-season, but you were already all over him early if you read my stuff.

Xavier Isaac TBR, 1B, 19.6 – Isaac has continued to quietly establish himself as a future elite hitting prospect. He demolished a 440 foot no doubter yesterday for his 3rd in 4 games and his 9th in 64 games. The GB% continues to come down to a reasonable 46.4%, and he has an excellent plate approach with a 19.9%/14.7% K%/BB%. It’s all led to a 141 wRC+. He rose to 68th overall on the June Top Top 331 Prospects Rankings (Patreon), and he’ll take another big jump in the Updated July Prospects Rankings coming next week.

Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.4 – The Southern League is in the post pre-tacked ball era, and Chourio is loving every minute of it, smoking an opposite field homer yesterday and is now 10 for 18 with 2 doubles, 2 homers and a 1/1 K/BB in 4 games with the normal ball. He’s basically picked right up from the destruction he laid last year. I wouldn’t say we should completely throw out the first half stats of all players in the Southern League, but it’s going to be mighty interesting to see the difference from the 1st half to the 2nd half. I didn’t budge off Chourio with his good, but not explosive 1st half, and now he’s exploding all over again.

Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.6 – Dominguez is getting hot again. He went deep for the 2nd time in 3 games and now has a .934 OPS with 7 steals and a 14/8 K/BB in 13 July games. It think the backlash against Dominguez’ ridiuclous hype as a 17 year old has made him underrated over the past couple years. He’s a 20 year old at Double-A with a 108 wRC+ and a nasty power/speed combo (12 homers and 25 steals in 80 games).

Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.3 – My #6 ranked prospect on the June Top 331 Rankings, Armstrong has been an extra base machine since returning from the break. He smushed his 11th homer in 64 games at Double-A yesterday and now has 3 doubles, 1 triple, and 1 homer in his last 14 AB. The power explosion is exciting considering his speed (23 steals) and defense, and while the 24%/7.7% K%/BB% isn’t great, it’s not bad either. I’m all in on Armstrong and have been since his draft year.

Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.10 – What lack of power? Carter deposited his 10th homer of the season right in the lazy river. He’s been on fire since returning from injury, slashing .354/.426/.622 with 5 homers, 2 steals (in 6 attempts) and a 18/10 K/BB in 21 games. The only real blemish on his season is a terrible stolen base success rate (11 for 18), but I think we can overlook that with the power uptick and great plate approach.

Emmanuel Rodriguez MIN, OF, 20.4 – It’s been an up and down season for Baby Bonds, and we’re now back on the upswing with his first homer since June 23rd. He has a .914 OPS in his last 6 games after going 0 for 22 in the 8 games before that. That is a microcosm of his entire season, but a 131 wRC+ with 11 homers and 11 steals in 60 games at High-A ain’t too shabby at all. The 31.8% K% and .214 BA prevents a true explosion to elite prospect status, but his value has at least held steady this year.

Ceddanne Rafaela BOS, OF, 22.3 – All Rafaela has done at Triple-A is hit dingers, and I mean that in both a good and bad way. He smoked his 5th homer in 15 games at the level, but it comes with a 25%/1.5% K%/BB%. The extremely low walk rates are a bit concerning, but he makes up for it with plus speed and plus defense. The profile isn’t that far off from Pete Crow, and he’s now knocking on the door of the bigs.

Jett Williams NYM, SS, 19.8 – Jett may be only 5’6”, but he’s starting to look pretty thick (in a good way), and he’s proving he has enough juice in his bat to make a legit impact. He launched his 5th homer in 70 games at Single-A yesterday and it comes with 29 steals and a 20.6%/19.6% K%/BB%. He only has a .243 BA because the GB% is probably a little too low for his type of profile with a 35.2% GB%, but that is a much easier fix than trying to learn how to lift the ball more. It’s a damn exciting fantasy profile and he is very easily a top 100 fantasy prospect.

Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 22.1 – Jones crushed his 11th homer in 72 games off a pretty nice looking curve that caught too much of the plate. We already know about the power and speed, and his plate approach has looked much better of late with a 24.3%/14.8% K%/BB% in his last 31 games. I would say he’s conquered High-A at this point and is just waiting for his next challenge in the upper minors.

Tyler Black MIL, 2B, 22.11 – Black was one of my first buy calls of the season, and he’s went on to just continue crushing the upper minors all year. He went 4 for 6 with a frozen rope homer yesterday and is now slashing .282/.427/.524 with 13 homers, 42 steals, and a 20.3%/16.8% K%/BB% in 70 games at Double-A. Call me crazy, but I think he’s ready for Triple-A.

Coby Mayo BAL, 3B, 21.6/Orelvis Martinez TOR, SS, 21.6 – Another day, another dinger. Mayo and Orelvis both went deep again, and it was both of their 18th homers. It was also both of their first homers at Triple-A after recently getting called up to the level. I prefer Mayo, but they are both elite power hitting prospects.

Christian Scott NYM, RHP, 24.1 – 7 IP, 6 hits, 2 ER, 8/0 K/BB at Double-A. Scott transitioned into a full time starter role after being mostly used out of the pen in his career, and he’s taken to it well with a 3.22 ERA and 28.8%/5% K%/BB% in 36.1 IP at Double-A. He’s a big dude at 6’4”, 215 pounds and the stuff is very good with a mid 90’s fastball and plus slider. He might still end up in the pen when it’s all said and done, but there is definitely mid rotation upside and he’s definitely an exciting pop up pitching prospect.

Ty Madden DET, RHP, 23.4 – 4.2 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 8/2 K/BB at Double-A. Madden has always felt a bit underrated to me. He has the size (6’3”, 215), velocity (mid 90’s heat), diverse pitch mix (fastball, slider, curve, change), and production (3.68 ERA with a 27.1%/9.5% K%/BB%) to make a legit fantasy impact. He’s not a bad low key target if you are struggling to acquire pitching as he’s also close to the bigs.

Logan Allen CLE, LHP, 24.11 – Allen is back in the majors and it didn’t take long for him to re-establish himself, going 5 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 8/1 K/BB vs. Pitt. The changeup was a whiff machine with a 50% whiff% and it led to a 29% whiff% on the day. The stuff isn’t huge with a 90.4 MPH fastball in this one, and he’s not an elite control guy, which limits his upside, but the guy knows how to pitch and can miss bats. It’s a #4-ish starter profile.

Jordan Beck COL, OF, 22.2 – Beck got the call to Double-A post break and he had his first big day at the level, going 2 for 4 with a triple and a homer. He has a 115 wRC+ in 4 games but it comes with a 46.2%/0.0% K%/BB%. It’s still obviously too small of a sample to say anything in either direction, but the one thing to watch is that K%, because we know about the big talent at 6’3”, 225 pounds with a plus power/speed combo. He was one of my targets in my Top 9 Dynasty Baseball Targets (Patreon) from a few weeks ago.

Victor Scott STL, OF, 22.3 – Double-A hasn’t slowed Scott down at all. He lined his 2nd homer in 13 games and is now slashing .333/.377/.491 with 2 homers, 6 steals, and a 12.9%/4.8% K%/BB% in 13 games at the level. He rose to 233rd overall on the latest prospect rankings, and that is set to take another big jump next week. He’s legitimately exciting with a plus contact/speed profile.

Jud Fabian BAL, OF, 22.7 – Fabian smacked his 5th homer at 20 games since getting called up to Double-A, but unfortunately his hit tool has basically been a worst case scenario with a .171 BA and 37.6% K%. That is exactly what we didn’t want to see, but he’s made adjustments in the past, and we have to give him some time to make adjustments again against upper minors pitchers.

Ivan Melendez ARI, 1B, 23.7 – Melendez got the call to Double-A, and literally all he’s done is rip dingers. He cracked 2 homers yesterday and he now has 4 homers in 3 games at the level. He wasn’t too bad at High-A either with 18 homers in 58 games. He’s certainly made up for his lackluster debut in 2022, but he still isn’t without his warts with a 33.6%/8.2% K%/BB% (30.8%/7.7% K%/BB% at Double-A). It is a bit of a Quad-A type slugger profile, and he’s also hit lefties much better than righties. A low BA, part time power bat might be the most likely outcome, but he’s left little doubt that he will be able to mash homers at any level.

Alek Manoah TOR, RHP, 25.6 – 3 IP, 3 hits, 4 ER. 0/5 K/BB vs. SDP … oof, still brutal

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on July 11, 2023July 14, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 50 2024 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings

It’s First Year Player Draft Rankings Half Week over on the Patreon! I went 50 deep with blurbs and projections for every player. Top 7 free on the Brick Wall below. Here is the Top 50 2024 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 473 JULY DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 331 JUNE DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (6/29/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JUNE MAILBAG! (6/27/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (7/14/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

Tier 1

1) Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 21.4 – Let’s cut right to the chase, if any pitcher would make me pass on the type of hitting talent Crews and Langford are, it would be Paul Skenes, so I have no issue going Skenes first, but with how an entire pitcher’s career trajectory can be changed on a single pitch, I just can’t take that risk. Selected 2nd overall, Crews is built like a solid rock at 6’0”, 203 pounds, and he swings the bat so fast and powerfully it almost looks like he’s using an illegally light bat (he’s not, at least I don’t think he is ha). The ball explodes off it on contact. The swing and hard hit ability are so impressive that I get shades of Bryce Harper when watching him (obviously not a direct comp). He obliterated the SEC from the second he stepped on campus as a freshman, and he kept on improving through his junior year, slashing .380/.498/.689 with 58 homers, 23 steals, and a 146/152 K/BB in 196 career games. His floor feels like a 30+ homer bat without the best BA or tons of steals, and the ceiling might look something like the aforementioned Bryce Harper. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 103/33/108/.278/.367/.531/14 Where he would rank on the Top 300 Prospects Rankings: #5 – valued around Jordan Lawlar, Jackson Chourio, and James Wood

2) Wyatt Langford TEX, OF, 21.7 – If you miss out on Crews, Langford not only isn’t a bad consolation prize, but he has a legit case to be taken over Crews. He might actually have half a tick more power and speed than Crews, and he’s even more built up at 6’1”, 225 pounds. He used that tremendously powerful and athletic frame to destroy the SEC over the past 2 seasons, slashing .363/.471/.746 with 47 homers, 16 steals, and a 89/92 K/BB in 134 career games. Crews strikes me as a bit looser and more of a natural athlete to my eye, and his bat speed and swing just look next level to me, so I would still pick him first, but I would be happy as a clam to sit at #2 and take whichever bat fell to me. He was selected 4th overall. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 95/34/105/.271/.355/.523/16 Where he would rank on the Top 300 Prospects Rankings: #6 – see above

3) Paul Skenes PIT, RHP, 21.1 – Selected 1st overall, Skenes immediately becomes the top pitching prospect in baseball who has yet to debut in the majors. If your offense is already stacked, and you are struggling to build up your pitching, I wouldn’t blame you for going Skenes over Crews and Langford, because Skenes is a generational pitching talent. His season was nothing short of jaw dropping with a pitching line of 1.69/0.75/209/20 in 122.2 IP in the SEC. His fastball sits in the upper 90’s and routinely hits over 100 MPH. His slider is elite, and while he didn’t go to his changeup as much, that pitch is also nasty. He also displayed plus control of his entire arsenal. He’s 6’6”, 235 pounds with a relatively athletic delivery and he’s a good athlete in general as evidenced by the fact he is also an excellent hitter. He had a career 1.121 OPS in 119 games in the Mountain West before transferring into the SEC. He’s as can’t miss as a pitcher can get. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 16/3.12/1.02/250 in 200 IP Where he would rank on the Top 300 Prospect Rankings: #7 – see above

Tier 2

4) Max Clark DET, OF, 18.6 – Clark is the 2023 draft version of Pete Crow Armstrong and Corbin Carroll, two guys who I was the high man on in their first year player draft class, although Clark actually got the respect he deserved by getting selected 3rd overall. Maybe the success of those aforementioned players paved the way for a guy like Clark to get valued correctly. As you can tell from the comps, double plus speed with a plus hit tool and developing power is what you are buying. He’s a pretty thick and muscular 6’1”, 190 pounds, so I don’t think you have to squint too hard to see legitimate power developing down the line, even if he’s more a line drive hitter currently. 5×5 BA leagues are going to be his bread and butter, but like Carroll, he can be a beast regardless of league type. He has elite dynasty asset upside. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 93/18/72/.288/.346/.435/39 Where he would rank of the Top 300 Prospects Rankings: #20 – valued around Marcelo Mayer, Carson Williams, Harry Ford and Luisangel Acuna

5) Walker Jenkins MIN, OF, 18.4 – Selected 5th overall, the 6’3”, 215 pounds Jenkins has that sweet lefty swing that just oozes offensive potential. It’s athletic, quick, under control, powerful, smooth … I can go on and on. It’s hard to watch this guy hit and not completely fall in love. It has the potential for plus hit and plus power at peak, and he’s also a good athlete with above average run times. It’s the type of profile that can be an elite dynasty asset a la Kyle Tucker. If your dynasty league leans more towards power than speed, I can see scooping Jenkins over Clark. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 89/30/97/.270/.340/.514/14 Where he would rank on the Top 300 Prospects Rankings: #21 – see above, along with similar value to Emmanuel Rodriguez

6) Yoshinobu Yamamoto JPN, RHP, 24.11 – Yamamoto is the top player expected to come over from Japan, and like Kodai Senga and Masataka Yoshida, all signs point towards him being an immediate impact fantasy player. He’s been a true ace in Japan for years now, and that’s continued this year with a pitching line of 1.66/0.82/101/12 in 92 IP. He pitched 193 innings in both 2021 and 2022, so there also isn’t any concern of how many innings he can pitch. The fastball sits mid 90’s and regularly hits the upper 90’s. A nasty splitter is his most used secondary, and he also throws a very good cutter and curve. He has elite command over all of his pitches, and he has an unique, oddly athletic delivery which he varies constantly to mess with hitters timing. He’s a straight up nightmare to face, and if you want the win now pitcher, I can see taking him as high as 4th overall. 2024 Projection: 13/3.73/1.18/190 in 180 IP Where he would rank on the Top 300 Prospects Rankings: If you want to lean win now, I would have him ranked 10th overall around Grayson Rodriguez and Andrew Painter. If win later, I would have him ranked around Tink Hence and Shane Baz at around 25 overall

Tier 3

7) Matt Shaw CHC, SS, 21.8 – Selected 13th overall, Shaw is my top target after the consensus Top 6 are off the board. He’s only 5’11”, but he’s a thick dude who has real power, and he combines that with above average speed and excellent base stealing skills. He smashed 24 homers with 18 steals and a 1.142 OPS in 62 Big Ten games. He also impressed in the wood bat Cape Cod League with 5 homers, 21 steals, and a 1.006 OPS in 36 games. He has that little man leg kick that I absolutely love in the mold of a Alex Bregman, Spencer Steer, and Zach Neto. It definitely seems to be working for these slightly undersized guys. Shaw is going to be a fantasy stud, and while he isn’t really underhyped, there is a chance he falls into a mighty juicy area in your first year player draft. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 82/25/88/.268/.341/.463/18 Where he would rank on the Top 300 Prospects Rankings: #40 – valued around Spencer Jones, Jonatan Clase, Jackson Merrill, and Yanquiel Fernandez

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on July 3, 2023July 7, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 473 July 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

Here at Imaginary Brick Wall we’re celebrating the 4th of July with Dynasty Baseball Rankings! Would you expect anything else? As usual, I will go over 400 deep with blurbs for just about every player. June, May, April, and Off-Season Rankings are in parenthesis, in that order. The Top 473 just hit the Patreon today (Top 25 free here on IBW). Here are the Top 473 July 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 331 JUNE DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (6/29/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JUNE MAILBAG! (6/27/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (6/16/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

1) (1) (1) (1) (1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 29.0 – Acuna was starting to just enter Ohtani’s rearview mirror for the #1 overall dynasty player, so Ohtani went out and hit another gear, slashing .378/.472/.966 with 19 homers in his last 31 games at the plate, and striking out 22 batters in his last two starts on the mound. The undisputed king

2) (2) (2) (3) (3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 25.8 – Acuna simply can’t match Ohtani’s upside. He doesn’t pitch. He slashed .365/.439/.720 with 10 homers and 19 steals in his last 26 games and managed to lose ground

3) (8) (24) (24) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.10 – Backed up my aggressive #3 ranking of him in June by slashing .304/.360/.674 with 8 homers and 8 steals in his last 24 games. But now he’s experiencing shoulder soreness in his surgically repaired shoulder, which really can’t be sugarcoated. Thankfully it doesn’t seem that serious, but I can’t lie, it’s a bit scary

4) (5) (7) (9) (7) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, SS/OF, 24.5 – Either he was being honest about his PED use, or he never needed them anyway, or he’s still cheating, because post PED suspension Tatis doesn’t look all that different from pre PED suspension Tatis with 16 homers and 14 steals in 64 games. Plus, his hit tool is better than ever with a career best 19.2% K%

5) (4) (3) (2) (2) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 22.6 – Hasn’t taken a step forward in year 2 and hasn’t really had a true hot streak yet this year, but nothing in the underlying numbers says there should be any level of concern. The guy has a 92.6 MPH EV and 29.6 ft/sec sprint which has led the way to a 25 homer and 37 steal pace on the season

Shadow5) (5) (3) (3) (6) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.0 – 31 homers leads all of baseball

6) (8) (11) (7) (5) Juan Soto SDP, OF, 24.8 – The early season slump is a long forgotten memory with a 1.048 OPS in his last 23 games

7) (6) (9) (12) (16) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 22.5 – Slumping since the last update, slashing .216/.260/.352 with 2 homers and 5 steals in his last 22 games, but he still had a 12/6 K/BB over that time, so the slump isn’t going to last long

8) (9) (4) (4) (6) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 26.6 – As expected, the homer power has ticked up since the last update with 5 homers in his last 25 games. He’s slashing .285/.361/.466 with 12 homers and 14 steals in 82 games and it doesn’t even feel like he’s having that good of a season

9) (7) (6) (5) (4) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 26.0 – Hasn’t played since June 8th with an oblique injury that is expected to keep him out until mid July

10) (10) (5) (6) (9) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 24.4 – The guy has a 94.4 MPH EV with a 15.4% K% and .398 xwOBA (top 4% of the league). He’s not going to be held down for long. I’m buying

11) (12) (12) (11) (13) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 25.3 – He’s improving his strength, taking the hit tool to the next level with a .317 BA and .323 xBA, but he hasn’t improved his weaknesses (BB% and launch), and he’s also not running (3 steals)

12) (13) (13) (13) (8) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS/3B, 23.1 – .811 OPS in his last 20 games. .305 wOBA vs. .355 xwOBA. I was buying last month and I’ll continue to buy this month

13) (18) (21) (17) (17) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 30.9 – 92.4 MPH EV is a career high. .400 xwOBA is in the top 3% of the league. That gradual decline he was on has been completely reversed

14) (19) (15) (15) (12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 30.10 – 1.157 OPS with 7 homers and 4 steals in his last 22 games. He’s still elite

15) (16) (10) (10) (14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 26.8 – .943 OPS in 25 games since the last update. I warned against selling too low on him

16) (11) (14) (8) (10) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 31.2 – Suffered a torn ligament in his big toe and his return date is uncertain as of now. He’s resumed some light baseball activities of late, but it seems like an August return would be a best case scenario

17) (20) (16) (14) (11) Trea Turner PHI, SS, 30.0 – Hitting .292 with 3 homers and 10 steals in his last 24 games. It’s not his best season, but nothing it too concerning in his underlying numbers, and the upside is too high to sell at any type of discount

18) (14) (20) (20) (18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 30.10 – .669 OPS with 0 homers in his last 31 games. I think we have to grade Harper’s season on a curve considering how fast he came back from Tommy John surgery. It might not be until 2024 until he’s truly fully healthy

19) (23) (76) (72) (64) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.6 – 31.1% K% with a 30.3% whiff% is actually encouraging to me because there was potential for it to truly balloon in the majors. 30.8 ft/sec sprint speed leads the league by a good margin and his 116.6 Max EV is in the top 2% of the league. He’s living up to the hype

20) (22) (22) (25) (39) Randy Arozarena TBR, OF, 28.4 – His last month wasn’t particularly notable with a .848 OPS, 5 homers, and 2 steals in 25 games, but it just continues to lock in his status as a near elite dynasty asset

21) (41) (51) (27) (30) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 25.11 – 1.132 OPS with 11 homers and 6 steals in his last 26 games

22) (40) (50) (82) (41) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 26.6 – .975 OPS with 9 homers and 5 steals in his last 25 games

23) (31) (17) (16) (15) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 22.4 – Slashing .407/.416/.674 with 5 homers and 5 steals in his last 23 games. He’s back

24) (17) (24) (36) (36) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 24.8 – The rough patch proved to be just that with a 1.83 ERA and 28/3 K/BB in his last 19.2 IP. Undisputed top dynasty pitcher in the game

25) (25) (29) (37) (37) Freddie Freeman LAD, 1B, 33.10 – The man is on pace for 20 stolen bases now too. Just not fair. He’s almost 34 years old, but even this ranking might be too low with zero signs of decline

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on June 26, 2023June 29, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (6/26/23)

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Matt McLain CIN, 2B/SS, 23.9 – Elly who? Little Matty McLain, all 5’11”, 180 pounds of him is having a historic rookie season himself after going 4 for 5 with 4 extra base hits yesterday. He notched a 104.1 MPH double, 102.2 MPH homer, 101.8 MPH double, and a 94.5 MPH double. He’s now slashing .325/.380/.541 with 5 homers, 4 steals, and a 26.9%/6.4% K%/BB% in 37 games. The underlying numbers don’t look quite as nice as the surface stats (.338 xwOBA), but they are still mighty enticing with a 12.6% barrel%, 89.2 MPH EV, 12.8 degree launch, 25.2% whiff%, and 28.9 ft/sec sprint speed. That is a combination for a fantasy difference maker, and it’s high time McLain starts to get talked about with the most exciting young players in the game. He ranked 115th overall on the June Top 456 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), and that ranking is set to rise in next week’s July update.

Luis Lara MIL, OF, 18.7 – All the fun rookie ball breakouts had us starting to forget about Lara, but he had a “remember me” shot yesterday for his 2nd homer in 38 games at Single-A. Not only hasn’t he slowed down from his hot start to the year, he’s taken it up a notch in June, slashing .396/.500/.528 with 1 homer, 7 steals, and a 9/11 K/BB in his last 14 games. The plate approach is straight elite, the speed is plus, and he doesn’t have any major groundball issues (37.5% GB%), so he should get the most out of his raw power at peak. He ranked 74th overall on the Updated Top 331 Dynasty Prospects Rankings that dropped on the Patreon last week.

Ezequiel Duran TEX, 3B/2B/OF, 24.1 – 2 for 4 with 2 doubles at 110.7 MPH and 99.9 MPH. Duran is a major target for me and is the perfect buy high candidate. He’s been doing his best Adolis Garcia impression all year with power (91.1 MPH EV with 9 homers), speed (28.9 ft/sec sprint with 4 steals) and a mediocre plate approach (24.1%/4.2% K%/BB%) in 58 games. He’s an electric player and has legitimately near elite fantasy upside. You will definitely have to pay up for him, but his value hasn’t cemented yet to where he will be impossible to acquire. I would go after him.

Eury Perez MIA, RHP, 20.2 – Perez is starting to separate himself from the exciting young pitcher pack, and is now entering true ace territory. He went 6 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER and 9/1 K/BB vs. Pitt yesterday for his 5th scoreless outing in his last 6 starts. The fastball sat 97.9 MPH and the slider notched a 60% whiff%. He now has a 1.34 ERA with a 29.2%/8.1% K%/BB% in 47 IP. He will be on a strict innings cap with a career high of 78 IP, so he might not be able to carry your fantasy rotation for the rest of the season, but at only 20 years old, there are many years of dominance on the horizon. He’ll rise into the Top 50 overall on next week’s dynasty rankings.

Tyler Glasnow TBR, RHP, 29.9 – 5 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 12/1 K/BB vs. KCR. The fastball sat 96.6 MPH and he put up a 58% whiff% overall. This was Glasnow’s best start of the season and is reminder that he has the type of strikeout upside that only Spencer Strider and Jacob deGrom can even come close to matching. Even with him still shaking the rust off from Tommy John surgery, his 35.2% K% is 3rd best amongst starters with over 30 IP behind the aforementioned Strider and deGrom. I’ll take the injury risk for that type of strikeout upside.

Mason Black SFG, RHP, 23.5 – 4.1 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 5/2 K/BB at Double-A. Black is quickly becoming one of my favorite pitching prospects with an absolutely electric fastball from a funky righty arm angle. He combines that with a damn good slider and changeup as well. This was his 4th straight scoreless outing in a row to bring his season ERA down to 4.00 with a 29.7%/9% K%/BB% in 54 IP. He does look a bit reliever-ish and he’s pitched in mostly short outings, so there is bullpen risk, but I would go after him regardless.

Royce Lewis MIN, 3B/SS, 24.0 – Lewis is becoming a tough one to evaluate. After going 3 for 4 last night, the surface stats look great, slashing .333/.357/.506 with 4 homers, 1 steal, and a 26.2%/3.6% K%/BB% in 22 games, but the underlying numbers don’t look as good. He has a 86.8 MPH EV, 8.8 degree launch, .295 xwOBA, and a 30.3% whiff%. Not necessarily the best combination there. The good news is that the 28.4 ft/sec sprint speed shows the knee feels good, and it’s still too small of a sample to really pick apart the underlying numbers. I’m betting on the talent and think the underlying numbers will catch up with the surface stats, but the mediocre underlying numbers definitely points towards having some level of caution before flying him up rankings.

Coby Mayo BAL, 3B, 21.6 – Ranking Coby Mayo 8th overall on my Predicting the 2024 Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings (Patreon) back in February was one of my boldest calls, and he’s fulfilled my prophesy with an absolutely devastating season at Double-A. He’s homered in 6 of his last 11 games and is now slashing .313/.432/.609 with 14 homers and a 24.3%/14.9% K%/BB% in 67 games on the season. His 178 wRC+ leads all qualified hitters at Double-A. The dude is an absolute beast and is setting up to be one the premier power hitters in baseball for years to come.

Bryan Ramos CHW, 3B, 21.2 – Ramos got a late start to the season because of a groin strain, and he’s just now finding his groove at Double-A. He showed off his easy power yesterday blasting one out to centerfield, and he now has a 1.077 OPS with 4 homers in his last 9 games. He has a 126 wRC+ in 21 games at the level on the year. He’s been a favorite of mine for awhile now, and he’s proving it in the upper minors. He’s still underrated.

Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.9 – Carter returned from a minor wrist injury and has done nothing but rip homers since, cracking his 3rd homer in his last 7 games. It sure seems like the power outage after his early season power binge was at least partly due to the bum wrist, but that’s all in the past now. He still doesn’t project as a monster power guy, but he doesn’t have to be with plus speed and a plus plate approach. He’s an elite dynasty prospect.

Roman Anthony BOS, OF, 19.1 – The Roman Anthony breakout sure seems to have arrived. He went out and got a pitch on the outside corner to smoke his 4th homer in 11 games since getting called up to High-A. He’s barely 19 years old. He’s a smooth operator at the plate with a loose, athletic, and powerful lefty swing that is so easy to dream on. The recent power explosion combines with a mature plate approach and plus speed. His value is exploding.

Kala’i Rosario MIN, OF, 20.11 – Rosario launched his 12th homer in 62 games at High-A, and he has done nothing but mash homers since mid May, slashing .288/.409/.610 with 11 homers and a 34/22 K/BB in his last 32 games. He’s built like a rock and the power is no joke. He rose to 132nd overall on the Updated Top 331 Prospects Rankings.

Alek Thomas ARI, OF, 23.0 – 3 for 4 with a 110.3 MPH double, 99.9 MPH single, and an 88.8 MPH single. Thomas returned to the majors a man possessed, slashing .400/.400/.640 with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 4/0 K/BB in 25 PA. I named him a target back in April, but I moved off him after he got sent back down, and he’s proving I should have stayed patient. He gets the bat on the ball (20.9% K%), hits it fairly hard (89.5 MPH EV) and is fast (28.5 ft/sec sprint). Good things tends to happen on a baseball field with those combination of skills. The upside might not be super high, but I’m back in on him.

MacKenzie Gore WAS, LHP, 24.3 – 5 IP, 5 hits, 1 ER, 9/2 K/BB vs. SDP. Just call him MacKenzie “inconsistent” Gore. The fastball sat 95.3 MPH and the slider put up a 40% whiff%. He’s been alternating gems like this with mediocrity all season and it’s resulted in a 3.89 ERA and 28.5%/9.9% K%/BB% in 85.2 IP. Inconsistency is likely just a part of his profile like Blake Snell, and like Snell, the upswings mostly make the down turns stomachable.

Jairo Iriarte SDP, RHP, 21.5 – 6 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 10/0 K/BB at High-A. This was Iriarte’s best start of the season which puts an exclamation point on his breakout year. He now has a 2.95 ERA with a 29.7%/11.2% K%/BB% in 55 IP. He has the big stuff to back up the numbers with a mid 90’s fastball, potentially plus slider, and a good changeup too. Control is still issue, but Iriarte is legitimately exciting and continues to climb up rankings.

Oscar Colas CHW, OF, 24.8 – It took a minute, but Colas is finally having his first real heater of the season. He smoked his 3rd homer in 2 games and now has a .968 OPS in his last 11 games. Chicago’s RF job is still waiting for him, and he could be on tap for his 2nd chance against big league pitching, and my guess is that he will be better the 2nd time around.

Thomas Saggese TEX, 2B/3B, 21.2 – Saggese has very quietly been hitting up Double-A, and that continued yesterday, going 2 for 4 with a double and 0 K’s. He’s now slashing .312/.372/.502 with 10 homers, 6 steals, and a 22%/8.5% K%/BB% in 67 games. He doesn’t have the biggest power/speed combo, but the guy can clearly hit, and it’s not like the power/speed combo is non existent. He deserves some more hype.

Nathan Martorella SDP, 1B, 22.3 – Martorella continued his dominance at High-A with his 12th homer in 68 games. Italian Snack is just waiting for the callup to Double-A to have his Vinnie Pasquantino/Kyle Manzardo-like come up on prospect lists with plus power and a mature plate approach (17.7%/15.3% K%/BB%).

Tanner Schobel MIN, SS/2B, 21.11 – The power has arrived as Schobel went deep for the 4th time in 4 games yesterday. He was already displaying a strong plate approach (19.6%/10% K%/BB%) and speed (9 steals), so the power breakout is big to see and firmly puts him on the radar for all league sizes. He has a solid across the board profile and cracked my latest prospects rankings at #246th overall.

Carlos Jorge CIN, 2B, 19.8 – Jorge went 2 for 5 with a homer and a steal and is now slashing .286/.385/.457 with 5 homers, 25 steals, and a 21.1%/13% K%/BB% in 60 games at Single-A. Seeing the strikeout rate settle in at a very reasonable range is great to see after it rose to 26.6% in rookie ball last year. Just what Cincinnati needs, another exciting infield prospect 😉

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on June 19, 2023June 26, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: June 2023 Top 331 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings

It’s Dynasty Baseball Prospects Week over on the Patreon, and the full Top 331 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings are now completed. (Top 25 free here on the Brick Wall). I was super strict with my definition of a prospect in this one again, except with the very recently called up prospects (Matos, Davis, Naylor, Sheehan). May, April, and Off-Season rankings are in parenthesis, in that order. Here is the June 2023 Top 331 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
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–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-TOP 44 ROOKIE BALL/DSL PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (5/26/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG! (5/16/23)

1) (2) (6) (13) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.6 – Holliday’s dominating performance as a 19 year old at High-A (166 wRC+ in 44 games) not only makes him the #1 prospect in baseball, it also vaults him into the Top 50 of my Updated Top 456 June Dynasty Baseball Rankings. He’s the best new Holliday since National Pizza Day was invented in the year 2000 … well, at least until Jackson’s younger brother Ethan Holliday hits the scene in 2025

2) (6) (3) (7) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 20.11 – Slashing .369/.424/.655 with 4 homers, 6 steals, and a 13.0%/7.6% K%/BB% in his last 20 games at Double-A. He figured out his contact issues, bringing his K% well out of the danger zone to 24.3% on the season

3) (5) (4) (3) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.3 – The 94 wRC+ in 59 games at Double-A is mediocre, but the 9 homers, 19 steals, and a 23.6% K% from a 19 year old is still very exciting

4) (7) (14) (8) James Wood WAS, OF, 20.9 – Hit tool is getting exposed at Double-A with a 34.7%/5.3% K%/BB% in 18 games. It’s basically exactly what you didn’t want to see, but he’s only 20, and it’s understandable that there will be an adjustment period

5) (11) (47) (92) Junior Caminero TBR, 3B, 19.11 – Called up to Double-A and he hasn’t missed a beat with a 19.4%/8.3% K%/BB% and 2 homers in 17 games

6) (18) (23) (25) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.2 – Pete Crow has a chance to be a true fantasy monster with 9 homers (58.4% FB%), 16 steals, and a .280 BA in 48 games at Double-A. The 23.1%/6.7% K%/BB% is mediocre, which keeps him from ranking even higher than this

7) (43) (76) (121) Luis Matos SFG, OF, 21.4 – He was doing his best Wander Franco impression at Triple-A with elite contact rates, developing power and some speed before earning a call to the majors. He’s yet to strikeout in the bigs with a 0.0%/29.4% K%/BB%, which has led to a .946 OPS in 17 PA, but the 77.2 MPH EV and 27.6 ft/sec sprint speed shows there is some risk that the power/speed combo won’t be huge

8) (8) (36) (58) Gavin Williams CLE, RHP, 23.10 – The Triston McKenzie injury moves Williams one step closer to a call-up, even if Cleveland doesn’t decide to turn to him quite yet

9) (NA) (8) (14) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 23.7 – Here is what I wrote about Grayson in my Top 26 Prospects to Stash for 2023 Impact Only on Friday, “Grayson may have finally found his rhythm for the first time all season. He has a 2.50 ERA with a 27/8 K/BB in 18 IP since getting sent back down to Triple-A. Their GM, Mike Elias, was obviously on to something when he talked shit about Grayson in spring training and didn’t have him break camp with the team. It was a continuation of his struggles when he returned in September of last year from a lat strain and didn’t look completely right. Before going down with that injury in 2022, Grayson said it was “hands down the best I’ve ever thrown the baseball in my life.” Pitching is all about rhythm, and the injury threw him off, but it looks like he’s finding it again. I’m sure Baltimore will be patient the second time around, but he’s on the verge on earning a 2nd shot.”

10) (12) (18) (21) Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 19.6 – Has progressed to throwing bullpens which is a very nice hurdle to clear. Without the injury risk, he would be the top pitching prospect in the game, and even with the injury risk he might still deserve that top spot

11) (21) (59) (83) Henry Davis PIT, C, 23.8 – I ranked Davis 2nd overall on Friday’s Stash article, and I absolutely nailed it with him getting the call to the majors. He has the chance to be a true elite hitting catcher who will also get full time at bats with the ability to play in the OF

12) (9) (32) (38) Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 23.2 – Returned from injury and is back to raking with a 1.003 OPS in his last 10 games at Triple-A. Aaron Hicks hot streak complicates his path to playing time

13) (14) (41) (30) Noelvi Marte CIN, SS, 21.7 – Doing it all at Double-A with power (8 homers), speed (10 steals) and hit (16.9%/9.9% K%/BB%) in 47 games, but trying to figure out his path to playing time puts my mind in a pretzel

14) (16) (15) (10) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.5 – .210 BA and 106 wRC+ in 58 games at Double-A doesn’t look great, but the 10 homers, 16 steals, and 26.7%/18.7% K%/BB% shows the fantasy upside. The hit tool is risky, but I’m not passing up on this kind of upside, and keep in mind he’s still only 20 in the upper minors

15) (10) (5) (19) Kyle Manzardo TBR, 1B, 22.11 – Not exactly kicking the door down to Tampa with a 113 wRC+ in 60 games at Triple-A, but his hit/power combo still makes him one of the safest bats in the minors

16) (13) (12) (16) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 20.10 – He’s considered week to week with biceps inflammation since leaving his last start on May 4th

17) (15) (13) (34) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.9 – Carter’s on the rehab trail from a wrist injury and should return to Double-A soon. The early season power binge proved to be a mirage, but he’s still only 20, so the power uptick could come in time, and his speed should buoy his fantasy profile until it does

18) (37) (88) (97) Christian Encarnacion-Strand CIN, 1B/3B, 23.6 – Massively improving his only weakness, like he simply flipped a switch, with a 15.3%/20.4% K%/BB% in his last 20 games. He’s also getting some run in the outfield. The callup has to be coming any day now

19) (17) (22) (48) Coby Mayo BAL, 3B, 21.6 – Mayo’s homered in 3 of his last 4 games to bring his season wRC+ at Double-A up to 163. Maybe now he’ll start to get the respect he deserves

20) (19) (31) (31) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 20.6 – Called up to Double-A and is struggling with a 51 wRC+ in 16 games, but the 3 homers and 21.1%/8.5% K%/BB% shows he will be fine

21) (22) (45) (74) Jordan Westburg BAL, SS, 24.3 – What does this man have to do to get the call? Because apparently hitting 17 homers in 62 games at Triple-A isn’t enough

22) (24) (46) (47) Harry Ford SEA, C, 20.3 – Ford has the ability to be a near elite dynasty asset, but it doesn’t seem like he gets valued like that. He’s doing it all at High-A with 8 homers, 13 steals, and a 19.3%/18.9% K%/BB% in 59 games

23) (47) (141) (102) Carson Williams TBR, SS, 19.11 – You guys know I’ve been hyping Williams hard for weeks now. 25.8% K% in his last 38 games is very reasonable considering his plus power (9 homers), speed (11 steals) and plus SS glove in 48 games at High-A. He’s a near elite prospect

24) (23) (44) (44) Luisangel Acuna TEX, SS/2B, 21.3 – Power hasn’t been optimal with only 4 homers in 54 games at Double-A, but everything else has been great with elite speed (29 steals) and a strong plate approach (21.1%/10.0% K%/BB%)

25) (64) (113) (193) Emmet Sheehan LAD, RHP, 22.6 – Made his MLB debut, and while it’s hard to argue against 6 no hit innings, there was one bright red flag. The famed changeup didn’t earn a single whiff. He wouldn’t be the first plus changeup guy to underwhelm in the majors (see, Gavin Stone)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on June 19, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Welcome to June Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings Week!

June Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings Week has arrived, and as usual, I will go over 300 deep with blurbs for almost every player. I will be strict with my definition of a prospect except for the super recently called up guys like Sheehan, Naylor, and Henry Davis. And speaking of, I absolutely nailed the Davis callup in Friday’s Stash article, ranking him 2nd overall (I nailed Naylor too, but that one was easier). First part of the rankings will drop later today or tom morning at latest. Catch you then …

-Halp

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-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (5/26/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG! (5/16/23)

Posted on June 12, 2023June 16, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (6/12/23)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
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-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (6/16/23)

Luis Guanipa ATL, OF, 17.6 – Guanipa is the early favorite to be THE prospect breakout from the DSL. He’s hit in all 4 games and is slashing .333/.368/.778 with 2 homers, 4 steals, and a 21.1%/5.3% K%/BB%. It’s still early, but I loved him coming into the season as my #2 international target (Sebastian Walcott was my #1 target), and he received a large signing bonus with the tools to back it up. Sample is still super small and DSL stats are the most untrustworthy, but if you’re shooting for the moon, Guanipa could be your guy.

Jun-seok Shim PIT, RHP, 19.2 – Shim made his pro debut on Saturday and went nuclear, going 4 IP with 0 hits, 0 ER, and a 8/0 K/BB in the FCL (stateside rookie ball). He has an innings eater build at 6’4”, 215 pounds, and he has the big fastball befitting of his stature with mid 90’s heat. The curve is his best secondary, and he backed up his scouting report in his first outing showing good control. The ingredients are most certainly here for him to truly explode. At the minimum, keep a close watch on him, and it might be worth scooping him now.

Michael Arroyo SEA, SS/3B, 18.7 – Here’s what I wrote about Arroyo in my Top 44 Rookie Ball/DSL Prospects Rankings (Patreon), ranking him 14th overall:

“Upside – Gabriel Gonzalez

Downside – The plus hit tool slides more towards above average, and he doesn’t have the explosive tools to make up for it

Prime Projection: 82/18/73/.273/.339/.435/6″ …

The upside is winning out with him slashing .636/.692/.909 with 1 homer, 3 steals, and a 7.7%/7.5% K%/BB% in 4 games at stateside rookie. It’s a repeat of what he did in the DSL, and it sure looks like he will follow in Gabriel Gonzalez’ footsteps as a plus to double plus hit tool riser.

Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.9 – Carroll rose all the way to 3rd overall on the Updated Top 456 Dynasty Baseball Rankings that dropped Friday on the Patreon, and he didn’t let the high ranking go to his head, smacking 3 more hits on Sunday at 109.8 MPH (single), 107.4 MPH (triple), and 103.6 MPH (double). He also stole his 19th bag. He’s on pace to go .308/32/47 on the season with the underlying numbers to back it up. Only Ohtani (#1) and Acuna (#2) can match this type of production …

Wander Franco TBR, SS, 22.3 – … don’t let Franco hear me say that, because he would have every right to take that personally. He went 2 for 4 with a 371 foot bullet shot for his for his 8th homer of the year. He’s also stolen 22 bags in 63 games, which takes his elite hit tool profile with improving power to the next level. An 88.2 MPH EV with a 8 degree launch makes his power a little shakier than some of the other elite options, which keeps him 6th overall on the Updated Dynasty Rankings.

Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 21.11 – Gunnar went 3 for 5 with a 113.8 MPH, 462 foot rocket, and all of a sudden his season numbers are starting to look pretty damn good with his OPS over .800 at .804. Over his last 15 games he’s slashing .354/.404/.729 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 13/4 K/BB. He’s finally starting to run more and also get the strikeouts in check. I mean, he ain’t Corbin Carroll, that ship has sailed, but I hope you bought low when you could

Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.5 – Are you even allowed to write an article about baseball without mentioning Elly De La Cruz? Dude is the talk of the town and his elite athleticism has started to transcend just baseball circles. He collected 2 more hits yesterday, one of which came at 109.7 MPH. That’s a weakly hit dribbler for Elly. He also stole his 3rd bag. He’s now slashing .364/.481/.636 with 1 homer, 3 steals, and a 37%/18.5% K%/BB% in 27 PA. The K% is high, but the 33.3% whiff% isn’t quite in the cover your eyes territory, and he’s walking a ton too. It’s just about as good of an MLB debut as we could have hoped for. He ranked 23rd overall on the Updated Rankings. He deserves a truly elite return in trades.

Rayner Arias SFG, OF, 17.2 – The plus bloodlines win again. Arias comes from a baseball family and he’s showing off that high baseball IQ and advanced beyond his years DNA, slashing .438/.550/.875 with 2 homers, 1 steal, and a 10%/20% K%/BB% in 4 DSL games. He’s not just a high IQ guy though, he’s also a projectable 6’1”, 180 pounds with a big righty swing that has clear power potential. He looks like a good one.

Gabriel Lara NYY, OF, 17.6 – Lara is another early DSL pop up, slashing .438/.550/.875 with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 10%/15% K%/BB% in 4 games. He has truly elite speed with a good feel to hit coming from a quick, compact lefty swing. He’s only 5’9”, but he’s not a skinny nothing, he definitely has some muscle. Carlos Jorge and Jonatan Clase would be the upside here, maybe even with a better hit tool.

Keiner Delgado NYY, 2B/3B, 19.5 – Delgado’s truly elite plate approach is transferring to stateside rookie ball, slashing .333/.538/.556 with 1 homer, 4 steals, and an 11.5%/30.8% K%/BB% in 5 games. He remains a year older than optimal, and while age for level is important, you don’t want to be a total slave to it. He’s also a small guy at 5’8”, so the power upside isn’t huge. Regardless, he’s an excellent athlete with the potential for an elite plate approach with speed and some pop.

Enmanuel Tejeda NYY, SS, 18.5 – Tejada is also backing up his strong DSL showing in 2022, slashing .438/.591/.813 with 2 homers, 4 steals, and a 22.7%/22.7% K%/BB% in 5 games in stateside rookie. He’s not a monster tools guy, but he has the potential to be that solid across the board contributor at peak.

Abraham Nunez CHW, OF, 17.3 – Okay, enough with these little guy breakouts. Nunez is a projectable 6’3”, 170 pounds with baseball bloodlines (his dad played in the majors) and good athleticism. He’s slashing .500/.647/.917 with 1 homer, 3 steals, and a 11.8%/29.4% K%/BB% in 4 DSL games. He surely checks a lot of boxes. Keep an eye out.

Luis Baez HOU, OF, 19.5 – I couldn’t do this mini Rookie Ball Rundown without mentioning the current rookie ball home run leader, Luis Baez. He’s jacked 4 homers in just 5 games in stateside rookie coming off a season where he jacked 9 homers in 58 games in the DSL. He has the raw power to back up the numbers at 6’1”, 215 pounds with a powerful righty swing. The hit tool is still a bit of a question mark with a poor 25.2%/6.3% K%/BB% in 2022, but it’s been better so far in 2023 (20.8%/16.7%). He’s also a year older than optimal and is more physically mature than most of his competition. But hitting bombs like this will certainly get you on the radar.

Jack Suwinski PITT, OF, 24.10 – Everybody was looking to put Suwinski in the grave, but he refused to comply, continuing his re-reemergence yesterday on a 2 for 4 day with a 108.6 MPH homer. He has 6 homers with a 1.142 OPS over his last 14 games. The strikeout rate is still too high at 32% and he isn’t running as much as optimal, but the guy can mash.

Braxton Garrett MIA, LHP, 25.10 – 5.1 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 9/1 K/BB vs. CHW. Garrett’s been the epitome of the crafty lefty this year, throwing a 6 pitch mix without any of the pitches cracking even 90 MPH (89.9 MPH sinker), but it gets the job done with an enticing 29.4% whiff% and 4.9% BB%. He’s not exactly a world beater with a 4.10 ERA and 4.73 xERA in 63.2 IP, but the guy knows the art of pitching, With Trevor Rogers on the comeback trail, Miami will have a decision to make on their rotation, because they don’t have a spot for him right now.

Nolan Jones COL, OF, 25.1 – Who would have thunk the 24/25 year old hitting for a 175 wRC+ at Triple-A, and who has produced his entire career, would actually be good? Nice of Colorado to actually get around to playing him, and surprise surprise, he continues to be good. He went 2 for 4 with a 111.6 MPH homer yesterday and is now slashing .360/.407/.680 with 4 homers, 4 steals, and a 31.5%/7.4% K%/BB% in 15 games. Most surprising is how much he’s running, and he has the above average speed to back it up with a 27.9 ft/sec sprint. There is still hit tool risk, but the very reasonable 26.9% whiff% is comforting it won’t get too crazy. I’m buying.

Ezequiel Tovar COL, SS, 21.10 – Tovar has slowly but surely pulled himself out of that early season hole he dug himself, and his 2 for 4 day with a 424 foot homer off Blake Snell has finally brought his season OPS over .700 to .707. Over his last 21 games he’s slashing .333/.375/.533 with 2 homers, 2 steals, and a 19/5 K/BB. I’m not gonna lie, the power/speed combo is still lacking, and the plate approach has been mediocre at best, so I’m not exactly buying, but he’s certainly finding his groove against MLB pitchers.

Zach Neto LAA, SS, 22.4 – Neto has just been laying down a rock solid foundation over his first 51 MLB games, and now he’s ready to build on it, blowing up yesterday with a 2 homer game. One was hit at 106.9 MPH and the other at 105.9 MPH. It’s actually quite remarkable what he’s doing against MLB pitching considering how quickly he was rushed through the minors, and he didn’t even come from a major conference in college. An 89.6 MPH EV with an 11.4 degree launch and 18.9% K% is the exact across the board profile I expected when I ranked him 3rd overall on my FYPD Rankings this off-season.

J.D. Martinez LAD, DH, 35.9 – 0 for 4 with 0 homers. I thought it was notable that he actually had a bad day, because he hasn’t had many since I named him a player to target in my Top Dynasty Baseball Targets (Patreon), ripping 7 homers in 15 games since then. His .400 xwOBA is in the top 3% of the league and his 93 MPH EV is a career high. Dodgers strike again.

Luis Matos SFG, OF, 21.4 – Let’s just pretend 2022 never happened. Matos has picked up from where his 2021 season ended, cracking 2 more homers yesterday at Triple-A on a 3 for 5 day. And just check out the vicious swings he used to unload on those two dingers. He’s not a huge guy, but he definitely packs a punch. He’s now blowing the doors off Triple-A, slashing .396/.434/.660 with 6 homers, 6 steals, and a 7%/6.1% K%/BB%. He might have officially made it to his destination from that elite prospect beeline he was on in 2021 with power, speed, and elite contact. A callup to the majors could be in the cards in the 2nd half.

Junior Caminero TBR, 3B, 19.11 – Caminero sliced his 2nd homer in 12 games since getting the call to Double-A. He has the type of power where he doesn’t even need to get all of it to hit it out. Double-A has definitely slowed him down a bit with a 104 wRC+, but the kid is still 19 years old. He’s not the perfect prospect with a mediocre plate approach, relatively elevated groundball rates, and limited speed, but the guy is a masher no matter how you slice it.

Termarr Johnson PIT, 2B/SS, 19.0 – Johnson hit an absolute no doubter to the tiki lounge in deep centerfield for his 3rd homer in 37 games at Single-A. It hasn’t exactly been the season we wanted to see from the uberhyped prospect with a 32.3% K%, but he still has a 126 wRC+ despite the swing and miss. I warned the hit tool wasn’t as good as advertised this off-season, so I wasn’t completely caught off guard by this, but I’m still buying the talent. He turned 19 yesterday, and I respect a player who finds ways to produce even when they aren’t completely locked in yet. Something tells me he’s about to hit his first real groove of the season. Don’t sell low.

Jake Eder MIA, LHP, 24.8 – Eder made his long awaited season debut earlier this month coming off Tommy John surgery and a broken foot, and he looked good in his 2nd outing on Saturday, going 4 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 3/1 K/BB at Single-A on a rehab assignment. The slide piece is still absolutely filthy and the fastball sat in the low to mid 90’s range. He was cracking Top 100’s before going down with the injury, and he has the potential to get back there if he keeps performing when he gets back to Double-A.

Anthony Solometo PIT, LHP, 20.5 – 4 IP, 5 hits, 0 ER, 7/0 K/BB at High-A. How can you not love watching this guy pitch? He now has a 2.30 ERA with a 29.1%/10.7% K%/BB% in 58.2 IP on the season, and I think he’s now officially knocking on the door of Top 100 status if he isn’t there already. I’ve been targeting him since before he even got drafted, and I’m still buying hard.

Noah Schultz CHW, LHP, 19.8 – My top pitching target in this year’s first year player draft class, Schultz finally made his season debut earlier this month, and it was worth the wait. The guy looks like Baby Randy Johnson on the mound at 6’9”, 220 pounds with a mid 90’s fastball, a potentially plus slider and developing change. He’s dominated in his 2 short outings, going 4 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB. The control has looked pretty good too. I implore you to get in now. He’s about to blow up.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)