Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/18/25)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/18/25):

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Ethan Holliday – COL, SS, 18.5, A – I love me pro debut season. It’s when an entirely new class of players get thrown into the fire mid race. It’s where the men get separated from the boys. Where the Nick Kurtz’s get separated from the Charlie Condon’s. It’s where guys like Alex Freeland and Jacob Reimer put themselves on the map as deep sleepers. All the guessing goes out the window. We now see what these guys can do with wood bats against professional pitching. And what better to way to kick off this Rundown than with my #1 overall player in the Top 60 2026 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon), Ethan “It’s a Trap” Holliday, because of course the tactless Rockies decided to just throw him to the wolves in full season ball. Yesterday, he was throwing spit balls at the teacher in high school algebra class, and today, he’s striking out 3 times in a Single-A game. Sure, he also had 2 hits, and he’s hitting well overall in his debut, going 6 for 16 with 2 doubles, but we know there were hit tool concerns coming out of the draft, and he now has a 33.3/5.6 K%/BB% in 4 games. It’s obviously a super small sample, but if Holliday maintains a mid 30’s K rate here down the stretch, what will the panic meter be this off-season? Why did the Rockies have to do this to us? They couldn’t have just let him ease into pro ball next year? Speaking of the Rockies, do we trust them to develop him at all? So many questions, so little answers, but the pro debuts will start to at least partially answer some of these questions on all of these new draftees. It’s a fun time.

Aiva Arquette – MIA, SS, 21.9, A+ – I’ve talked about this draft class being pretty underwhelming for fantasy, so it’s fitting that the top college bat in the class is off to a pretty underwhelming start at High-A, slashing .237/.333/.342 with 1 homer, 1 steal in 3 attempts, and a 26.7/13.3 K%/BB% in 10 games. That one homer was an opposite field cheapie, which underscores that while Arquette has big power at 6’5”, 220 pounds, he’s not really that prototypical lift and pull beast. And he has some hit tool risk. And he’s not expected to be a big base stealer. The last two college bats the Marlins selected high in the first round were Jacob Berry and JJ Bleday. I’m just saying. If Arquette continues to be mediocre at High-A, how high should we actually be taking him? It seems like .260 with 25 homers would be a good outcome here, which is good for fantasy, but it’s more Jordan Westburg than Nick Kurtz. And like I mentioned with Berry and Bleday, there is no guarantee he even makes it to .260/25. I don’t know how excited I could be picking Arquette this off-season, in shallower leagues especially.

Gavin Kilen – SFG, SS, 21.3, A – “Safe” college bat Gavin Kilen is doing nothing to help the reputation of this draft class. He was selected 13th overall by San Francisco, and getting drafted into that ballpark immediately killed any desire I would have to pick him, and now his pro debut is further cementing that, slashing .205/.279/.282 with 0 homers, 0 steals, and a 11.6/7.0 K%/BB% in 10 games at Single-A. He doesn’t have big power. He doesn’t have much speed. He’s in a horrible ballpark. He’s not having a good debut so far. I mean, what’s the point. And this was the 2nd college bat off the board. We aren’t in 2024 anymore, Dorothy. This 2025 draft class is kinda depressing.

Marek Houston – MIN, SS, 21.3, A – Is the 3rd college bat off the board doing any better? I guess, slashing .370/.424/.444 in 12 games at Single-A, but the concern was that he wasn’t going to make enough hard contact to make an impact, and he does indeed have zero homers with not much hard hit. The 22.6/7.5 K%/BB% is aight I guess. He’s great on defense and he is running with 6 steals, but man, this just feels so lackluster. Where are the Nick Kurtz’s? Where oh where are the JJ Wetherholt’s? …

JJ Wetherholt – STL, 2B, 22.10, AAA – Oh, there are the JJ Wetherholt’s, smoothly obliterating a bomb to dead center for his 9th homer in 26 games at Triple-A. This man became a power hitting beast right before our eyes with a 91.6 MPH EV and 48.7% Hard Hit%. The plate skills remain excellent with a 15.8/13.2 K%/BB% at the level and he runs with 17 steals on the season. He’s got 20/20 with a good BA written all over him, and it’s what catapulted him to 6th overall on my July 2025 Top 349 Dynasty Prospects Rankings (Patreon). Nick Kurtz is a Top 20 Dynasty asset. The 19 year old Konnor Griffin, who just got called to Double-A to show the 19 year old Sebastian Walcott how it’s done, is the #1 prospect in baseball. JJ is an elite prospect. Enjoy it, because the 2025 class ain’t going to be doing this. Except for maybe one man. One underrated man. And his name is Ethan Conrad. Give me the guy with a torn up shoulder over all of these other college bats.

Charlie Condon – COL, 3B/1B/OF, 22.2, AA – And then there is poor Charlie Condon. I was ringing the panic bell after Condon’s horrific pro debut, and while 2025 has been much better, as expected, it still hasn’t been easy. But all you have to do watch is one swing where he mashes the ball to smithereens at 111 MPH to forget all of it. That was his 4th homer in 33 games at Double-A, and it comes with a decent .244/.352/.420 triple-slash. The problem is that the strikeout rate sits at 29.6%. That remains too high. He’s also not exactly blowing the doors off the minors like we wanted to see out of the draft. So while he remains a legitimately exciting power bat, it sure looks like this isn’t going to be a smooth process to MLB power hitting star. He might get there, I think he will, but it’s going to be a process.

Jac Caglianone – KCR, 1B, 22.6, AAA – Speaking of not a smooth process, Caglinone is on a rehab assignment at Triple-A, and he’s leaving no doubt that there is nothing left for him to do in the minors with a 422 foot bomb for his 8th homer in 17 games on the season, and his 2nd in 5 games on this rehab assignment. He has a 1.641 OPS with a 1/2 K/BB in these games. He’s ready for another go at the majors, and I’m 100% sticking with him through the MLB adjustment period. He had a 77.1 MPH swing with a 12.1% Barrel%, .332 xwOBA, and a very respectable 26.1% whiff%. There is no way this guy isn’t going to start ripping the ball in the majors soon. The 37.2% Chase% is bad for sure, and he’s not lifting and pulling, so I’m not saying it’s all roses, but I’m not budging off a special bat like that.

Jakob Marsee – MIA, OF, 24.1 – The MLB onslaught continues, going 2 for 2 with a 105 MPH frozen rope for his 4th homer in 17 games. 32% Hard Hit% at Triple-A? 87.3 MPH EV at Triple-A? Was Marsee just not trying that hard? Did he Popeye the Sailor Man a can of spinach right before the callup? I don’t get it, because he’s turned into Shohei Ohtani all of a sudden with a 93 MPH EV and 54.8% Hard Hit% in the majors. He has 4 homers, 6 steals, a 17.7/14.5 K%/BB% and a 236 wRC+. But, I mean, the larger Triple-A sample has to rule the day, right? We can’t be assuming this is close to real. Now, he does have a fantasy friendly profile with lift and pull, speed, and good plate skills, so I don’t think it’s a complete mirage, but I still can’t go higher than 347th overall on the Updated Top 444 Dynasty Baseball Rankings that hit the Patreon last week. Maybe that’s too low, and considering he just keeps on raking, maybe I would have him ranked even higher today, but I can’t give the rec to truly buy high right now. Enjoy the ride if you have him, but if you don’t, don’t go chasing him too hard. It’s too late to get him now.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – TOR, 1B, 25.9 – Junior Caminero this. Nick Kurtz that. Vlad must have gotten sick of hearing it, because he’s been running these mean streets for years, and he’s out to put some respect back on his name after smashing his 9th homer in his last 27 games. That brings his season total up to a respectable 21 in 123 games, and he does it with something Kurtz and Caminero likely won’t be able to sniff long term, a .300 BA. The .416 xwOBA is the 5th best in baseball, and while expected stats aren’t everything as Statcast underrates lifting and pulling, it’s still a reminder that Vlad is one of the most special bats in baseball. He might still deserve that top spot over Caminero and Kurtz.

Noelvi Marte – CIN, 3B/OF, 23.9 – I got asked in the July Mailbag Podcast (Patreon) who the 2026 version of PCA and Neto are going to be, and my answer was Noelvi Marte and Maikel Garcia. I’ve been screaming from the rooftops to buy Marte since early July, with some people telling me they were able to just pick him up, and I wasn’t scared off by the Hayes trade either. This man is too electric to keep off the field, and he is indeed staying on the field in RF, and he keeps on raking. He went 2 for 4 with a 104.7 MPH single yesterday, and he has 2 homers with a 1.206 OPS in his last 8 games. It’s the electric skills he’s been showing all season with a double plus 74.1 MPH swing and double plus 29.1 ft/sec sprint. The 27% whiff% and 32.8% Chase% ain’t too bad at all. His value has been rising, and I’m still buying.

Samuel Basallo – BAL, C/1B, 20.11/Dylan Beavers – BAL, OF, 23.11 – Of course the Orioles went off for a 12 to 0 victory on the day they call up their two big guns from Triple-A, Basallo and Beavers. Basallo and Beavers may sound like a bad buddy cop TV show on TNT, but no, they are two big guns ready to give the Orioles a much needed shot in the arm. Basallo went 1 for 4 with a 101.1 MPH single, 2 RBI and 0 K. Beavers went 1 for 4 with 2 runs and a 1/1 K/BB. Beavers actually got called up the day before and ripped a 99.9 MPH double off Bryan Abreu in his first game. Basallo could enter that Kurtz/Caminero/Vlad tier in short order, and Beavers could join that pushing Top 100 dynasty asset status with power and speed. It’s going to be fun watching what they can do down the stretch.

Shea Langeliers – OAK, C, 27.8 – Raleigh is the clear top dog at catcher. We all know that. But I don’t think #2 is an easy call at all, and while I went with Basallo at #2, Basallo might not end up a catcher, which makes Shea Langeliers my real #2 dynasty catcher in baseball in last week’s update, ranking 83rd overall. And he kept on raking since then with his 25th homer on Friday, and a 106.5 MPH blast yesterday for his 26th on the season. The thing that really catapulted him to the top of the catcher rankings is that the hit tool has been much improved all season with a career best by far 23.6% whiff% and 18.4% K%. The big power hasn’t taken a step back at all with a 90.5 MPH EV and 15.4 degree launch. And he hits in a bandbox. The guy jacked out 29 homers last year too. Don’t sleep on Shea.

Francisco Alvarez – NYM, C, 23.8 – And while we’re on the topic of ascending dynasty catchers, Alvarez is now doing what we all expected of him to start the season, and that is rake his face off. He went 3 for 4 with 2 doubles at 103.3 MPH and 99.7 MPH, and those weren’t even his hardest hit balls of the day. It was a 112.9 MPH forceout. Since getting called back up the bigs he’s slashing .323/.408/.645 with 4 homers, a 22.5/12.7 K%/BB%, a 94.6 MPH EV and a 58.7% Hard Hit%. Alvarez was once the prince that was promised, the future #1 dynasty catcher in the game, and while there have been bumps in the road, he just might come for that crown one day if he keeps this up. That is assuming the jammed thumb he suffered last night doesn’t require a long absence.

Ralphy Velazquez – CLE, 1B, 20.2, AA – Ralphy was one of my top FYPD targets in his draft year, and while he was having a mediocre 1st half of the season, he was just lying in wait. Because he’s now going insane since he got the call to Double-A, walloping his 4th homer in just 5 games at the level. He was heating up at High-A before getting the call, and really his only problem even in the 1st half was the low BABIP. Whenever I got asked about his struggles, I always said his profile really remains that same. And that profile is a power hitting beast with 21 homers and a 19.8/9.9 K%/BB% in 99 games. Doing this as a recently turned 20 year old just puts an exclamation point on that profile. He did fall out of my Top 100 with the lackluster start, but he started the year 88th overall, and he’ll be right back there at the very least in the next update. This is an easy Top 100 power hitting prospect.

Carter Jensen – KCR, C, 22.1, AAA – All this dude did was mash. Every single year of his career, and he never really got the full hype treatment from the prospect world. But me thinks that is about to end, as the hype treatment is going to hit overdrive with his destruction at Triple-A. He went the opposite way for his 11th homer in just 34 games at the level, and it comes with a ridiculous 94.2 MPH EV and 61.3% Hard Hit%. Those are elite power hitting levels. Simple as that. He’s lifting it too with a 16 degree launch. The 33.2% whiff% and 31.9% K% are definitely way too high, and while he mitigates what with high walk rates and well above average chase, it is still a concern. But I mean, just look at those power metrics again. Elite. He entered my Top 100 at #100 in the July 2025 Top 349 Dynasty Prospects Rankings (Patreon), but right now, I don’t see how he’s not a Top 50 prospect at least. Let him split time with Salvador Perez behind the plate and at DH. That will be a killer fantasy catcher.

Michael Forret – BAL, RHP, 21.3, AA – Forret got the much deserved call to Double-A, and he didn’t disappoint, going 6 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 7/0 K/BB. That is just a continuation of the utter dominance he displayed at High-A with a 1.51 ERA and 33.5/7.5 K%/BB% in 59.2 IP. I closed out his off-season Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “he’s the type who could really pop with a good showing in the upper minors,” and that good showing could be here. He’s an athletic 6’3” with mid 90’s heat, a plus slider and a pretty good changeup. He’s already a Top 150 prospect for me, and he could be pushing close to Top 100 by the end of the season.

Lenyn Sosa – CHW, 2B/3B, 25.6 – 1 for 5 with a 108.6 MPH homer yesterday, and Sosa now has 12 homers in his last 42 games. The underlying metrics back it up with a 10.3% Barrel%, 90.8 MPH EV, 18.8 degree launch, .347 xwOBA and 44% Hard Hit% on the season. He barely snuck onto the back of the Updated Dynasty Rankings, so I definitely think he deserves to be on the radar, but the main problem is that with Meidroth back in the lineup, Sosa played 1B in this one. He also has a 3.5% BB%. A low OBP player who has a decent but not great infield glove is always going to have to scratch and claw for playing time. You can’t really feel locked with him long term. Ride the heater now, but don’t pay up for it.

Aaron Nola – PHI, RHP, 32.0 – Nola returned from a 3 month IL stint and he seamlessly picked up right up from where he left off, going 2.1 IP with 7 hits, 6 ER, and a 4/1 K/BB vs. WAS. He gave up 9 ER in his last start 3 months ago. It brings his ERA up to a cool 6.92 ERA in 52 IP. He’s definitely not this bad. He’s definitely been unlucky, but this cliff has been looming for a little while now. The stuff is down a tick this year and the 23.8/7.2 K%/BB% just isn’t special. It’s why he tanked to #266 on the August 2025 Top 444 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). I do think a bounce back is coming. I would be willing to take the flier. But don’t buy the name value.

Victor Robles – SEA, OF, 27.10 – You can hit a man with a pitch one time and he will shake it off. Two times, and he’ll still probably take it like a man. Three times, and he’ll put his head down and run to first, resigned to his fate. But after 177 times, that man will snap. On the 178th hit by pitch of Robles career, he went feral, jackhammering his bat at Joey Estes after taking a fastball straight to the chest and charging the mound. That is his 4th hit by pitch in just 5 games since getting to Triple-A for his rehab assignment. Because he swung at it, it doesn’t actually count as a hit by pitch, but that is only on the scorecard. Robles clearly felt like it counted. He’s been out since early April with a shoulder injury, and he’s clearly frustrated. And while I can’t say he should have thrown the bat at Estes, getting hit 4 times in 5 games while just trying to rehab is frustrating. I’m not going to blame him. Love the fireworks ha

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

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