Uncategorized – Page 4 – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on July 11, 2023July 14, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 50 2024 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings

It’s First Year Player Draft Rankings Half Week over on the Patreon! I went 50 deep with blurbs and projections for every player. Top 7 free on the Brick Wall below. Here is the Top 50 2024 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 473 JULY DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 331 JUNE DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (6/29/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JUNE MAILBAG! (6/27/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (7/14/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

Tier 1

1) Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 21.4 – Let’s cut right to the chase, if any pitcher would make me pass on the type of hitting talent Crews and Langford are, it would be Paul Skenes, so I have no issue going Skenes first, but with how an entire pitcher’s career trajectory can be changed on a single pitch, I just can’t take that risk. Selected 2nd overall, Crews is built like a solid rock at 6’0”, 203 pounds, and he swings the bat so fast and powerfully it almost looks like he’s using an illegally light bat (he’s not, at least I don’t think he is ha). The ball explodes off it on contact. The swing and hard hit ability are so impressive that I get shades of Bryce Harper when watching him (obviously not a direct comp). He obliterated the SEC from the second he stepped on campus as a freshman, and he kept on improving through his junior year, slashing .380/.498/.689 with 58 homers, 23 steals, and a 146/152 K/BB in 196 career games. His floor feels like a 30+ homer bat without the best BA or tons of steals, and the ceiling might look something like the aforementioned Bryce Harper. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 103/33/108/.278/.367/.531/14 Where he would rank on the Top 300 Prospects Rankings: #5 – valued around Jordan Lawlar, Jackson Chourio, and James Wood

2) Wyatt Langford TEX, OF, 21.7 – If you miss out on Crews, Langford not only isn’t a bad consolation prize, but he has a legit case to be taken over Crews. He might actually have half a tick more power and speed than Crews, and he’s even more built up at 6’1”, 225 pounds. He used that tremendously powerful and athletic frame to destroy the SEC over the past 2 seasons, slashing .363/.471/.746 with 47 homers, 16 steals, and a 89/92 K/BB in 134 career games. Crews strikes me as a bit looser and more of a natural athlete to my eye, and his bat speed and swing just look next level to me, so I would still pick him first, but I would be happy as a clam to sit at #2 and take whichever bat fell to me. He was selected 4th overall. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 95/34/105/.271/.355/.523/16 Where he would rank on the Top 300 Prospects Rankings: #6 – see above

3) Paul Skenes PIT, RHP, 21.1 – Selected 1st overall, Skenes immediately becomes the top pitching prospect in baseball who has yet to debut in the majors. If your offense is already stacked, and you are struggling to build up your pitching, I wouldn’t blame you for going Skenes over Crews and Langford, because Skenes is a generational pitching talent. His season was nothing short of jaw dropping with a pitching line of 1.69/0.75/209/20 in 122.2 IP in the SEC. His fastball sits in the upper 90’s and routinely hits over 100 MPH. His slider is elite, and while he didn’t go to his changeup as much, that pitch is also nasty. He also displayed plus control of his entire arsenal. He’s 6’6”, 235 pounds with a relatively athletic delivery and he’s a good athlete in general as evidenced by the fact he is also an excellent hitter. He had a career 1.121 OPS in 119 games in the Mountain West before transferring into the SEC. He’s as can’t miss as a pitcher can get. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 16/3.12/1.02/250 in 200 IP Where he would rank on the Top 300 Prospect Rankings: #7 – see above

Tier 2

4) Max Clark DET, OF, 18.6 – Clark is the 2023 draft version of Pete Crow Armstrong and Corbin Carroll, two guys who I was the high man on in their first year player draft class, although Clark actually got the respect he deserved by getting selected 3rd overall. Maybe the success of those aforementioned players paved the way for a guy like Clark to get valued correctly. As you can tell from the comps, double plus speed with a plus hit tool and developing power is what you are buying. He’s a pretty thick and muscular 6’1”, 190 pounds, so I don’t think you have to squint too hard to see legitimate power developing down the line, even if he’s more a line drive hitter currently. 5×5 BA leagues are going to be his bread and butter, but like Carroll, he can be a beast regardless of league type. He has elite dynasty asset upside. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 93/18/72/.288/.346/.435/39 Where he would rank of the Top 300 Prospects Rankings: #20 – valued around Marcelo Mayer, Carson Williams, Harry Ford and Luisangel Acuna

5) Walker Jenkins MIN, OF, 18.4 – Selected 5th overall, the 6’3”, 215 pounds Jenkins has that sweet lefty swing that just oozes offensive potential. It’s athletic, quick, under control, powerful, smooth … I can go on and on. It’s hard to watch this guy hit and not completely fall in love. It has the potential for plus hit and plus power at peak, and he’s also a good athlete with above average run times. It’s the type of profile that can be an elite dynasty asset a la Kyle Tucker. If your dynasty league leans more towards power than speed, I can see scooping Jenkins over Clark. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 89/30/97/.270/.340/.514/14 Where he would rank on the Top 300 Prospects Rankings: #21 – see above, along with similar value to Emmanuel Rodriguez

6) Yoshinobu Yamamoto JPN, RHP, 24.11 – Yamamoto is the top player expected to come over from Japan, and like Kodai Senga and Masataka Yoshida, all signs point towards him being an immediate impact fantasy player. He’s been a true ace in Japan for years now, and that’s continued this year with a pitching line of 1.66/0.82/101/12 in 92 IP. He pitched 193 innings in both 2021 and 2022, so there also isn’t any concern of how many innings he can pitch. The fastball sits mid 90’s and regularly hits the upper 90’s. A nasty splitter is his most used secondary, and he also throws a very good cutter and curve. He has elite command over all of his pitches, and he has an unique, oddly athletic delivery which he varies constantly to mess with hitters timing. He’s a straight up nightmare to face, and if you want the win now pitcher, I can see taking him as high as 4th overall. 2024 Projection: 13/3.73/1.18/190 in 180 IP Where he would rank on the Top 300 Prospects Rankings: If you want to lean win now, I would have him ranked 10th overall around Grayson Rodriguez and Andrew Painter. If win later, I would have him ranked around Tink Hence and Shane Baz at around 25 overall

Tier 3

7) Matt Shaw CHC, SS, 21.8 – Selected 13th overall, Shaw is my top target after the consensus Top 6 are off the board. He’s only 5’11”, but he’s a thick dude who has real power, and he combines that with above average speed and excellent base stealing skills. He smashed 24 homers with 18 steals and a 1.142 OPS in 62 Big Ten games. He also impressed in the wood bat Cape Cod League with 5 homers, 21 steals, and a 1.006 OPS in 36 games. He has that little man leg kick that I absolutely love in the mold of a Alex Bregman, Spencer Steer, and Zach Neto. It definitely seems to be working for these slightly undersized guys. Shaw is going to be a fantasy stud, and while he isn’t really underhyped, there is a chance he falls into a mighty juicy area in your first year player draft. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 82/25/88/.268/.341/.463/18 Where he would rank on the Top 300 Prospects Rankings: #40 – valued around Spencer Jones, Jonatan Clase, Jackson Merrill, and Yanquiel Fernandez

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on July 3, 2023July 7, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 473 July 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

Here at Imaginary Brick Wall we’re celebrating the 4th of July with Dynasty Baseball Rankings! Would you expect anything else? As usual, I will go over 400 deep with blurbs for just about every player. June, May, April, and Off-Season Rankings are in parenthesis, in that order. The Top 473 just hit the Patreon today (Top 25 free here on IBW). Here are the Top 473 July 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 331 JUNE DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (6/29/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JUNE MAILBAG! (6/27/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (6/16/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

1) (1) (1) (1) (1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 29.0 – Acuna was starting to just enter Ohtani’s rearview mirror for the #1 overall dynasty player, so Ohtani went out and hit another gear, slashing .378/.472/.966 with 19 homers in his last 31 games at the plate, and striking out 22 batters in his last two starts on the mound. The undisputed king

2) (2) (2) (3) (3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 25.8 – Acuna simply can’t match Ohtani’s upside. He doesn’t pitch. He slashed .365/.439/.720 with 10 homers and 19 steals in his last 26 games and managed to lose ground

3) (8) (24) (24) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.10 – Backed up my aggressive #3 ranking of him in June by slashing .304/.360/.674 with 8 homers and 8 steals in his last 24 games. But now he’s experiencing shoulder soreness in his surgically repaired shoulder, which really can’t be sugarcoated. Thankfully it doesn’t seem that serious, but I can’t lie, it’s a bit scary

4) (5) (7) (9) (7) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, SS/OF, 24.5 – Either he was being honest about his PED use, or he never needed them anyway, or he’s still cheating, because post PED suspension Tatis doesn’t look all that different from pre PED suspension Tatis with 16 homers and 14 steals in 64 games. Plus, his hit tool is better than ever with a career best 19.2% K%

5) (4) (3) (2) (2) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 22.6 – Hasn’t taken a step forward in year 2 and hasn’t really had a true hot streak yet this year, but nothing in the underlying numbers says there should be any level of concern. The guy has a 92.6 MPH EV and 29.6 ft/sec sprint which has led the way to a 25 homer and 37 steal pace on the season

Shadow5) (5) (3) (3) (6) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.0 – 31 homers leads all of baseball

6) (8) (11) (7) (5) Juan Soto SDP, OF, 24.8 – The early season slump is a long forgotten memory with a 1.048 OPS in his last 23 games

7) (6) (9) (12) (16) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 22.5 – Slumping since the last update, slashing .216/.260/.352 with 2 homers and 5 steals in his last 22 games, but he still had a 12/6 K/BB over that time, so the slump isn’t going to last long

8) (9) (4) (4) (6) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 26.6 – As expected, the homer power has ticked up since the last update with 5 homers in his last 25 games. He’s slashing .285/.361/.466 with 12 homers and 14 steals in 82 games and it doesn’t even feel like he’s having that good of a season

9) (7) (6) (5) (4) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 26.0 – Hasn’t played since June 8th with an oblique injury that is expected to keep him out until mid July

10) (10) (5) (6) (9) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 24.4 – The guy has a 94.4 MPH EV with a 15.4% K% and .398 xwOBA (top 4% of the league). He’s not going to be held down for long. I’m buying

11) (12) (12) (11) (13) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 25.3 – He’s improving his strength, taking the hit tool to the next level with a .317 BA and .323 xBA, but he hasn’t improved his weaknesses (BB% and launch), and he’s also not running (3 steals)

12) (13) (13) (13) (8) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS/3B, 23.1 – .811 OPS in his last 20 games. .305 wOBA vs. .355 xwOBA. I was buying last month and I’ll continue to buy this month

13) (18) (21) (17) (17) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 30.9 – 92.4 MPH EV is a career high. .400 xwOBA is in the top 3% of the league. That gradual decline he was on has been completely reversed

14) (19) (15) (15) (12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 30.10 – 1.157 OPS with 7 homers and 4 steals in his last 22 games. He’s still elite

15) (16) (10) (10) (14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 26.8 – .943 OPS in 25 games since the last update. I warned against selling too low on him

16) (11) (14) (8) (10) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 31.2 – Suffered a torn ligament in his big toe and his return date is uncertain as of now. He’s resumed some light baseball activities of late, but it seems like an August return would be a best case scenario

17) (20) (16) (14) (11) Trea Turner PHI, SS, 30.0 – Hitting .292 with 3 homers and 10 steals in his last 24 games. It’s not his best season, but nothing it too concerning in his underlying numbers, and the upside is too high to sell at any type of discount

18) (14) (20) (20) (18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 30.10 – .669 OPS with 0 homers in his last 31 games. I think we have to grade Harper’s season on a curve considering how fast he came back from Tommy John surgery. It might not be until 2024 until he’s truly fully healthy

19) (23) (76) (72) (64) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.6 – 31.1% K% with a 30.3% whiff% is actually encouraging to me because there was potential for it to truly balloon in the majors. 30.8 ft/sec sprint speed leads the league by a good margin and his 116.6 Max EV is in the top 2% of the league. He’s living up to the hype

20) (22) (22) (25) (39) Randy Arozarena TBR, OF, 28.4 – His last month wasn’t particularly notable with a .848 OPS, 5 homers, and 2 steals in 25 games, but it just continues to lock in his status as a near elite dynasty asset

21) (41) (51) (27) (30) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 25.11 – 1.132 OPS with 11 homers and 6 steals in his last 26 games

22) (40) (50) (82) (41) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 26.6 – .975 OPS with 9 homers and 5 steals in his last 25 games

23) (31) (17) (16) (15) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 22.4 – Slashing .407/.416/.674 with 5 homers and 5 steals in his last 23 games. He’s back

24) (17) (24) (36) (36) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 24.8 – The rough patch proved to be just that with a 1.83 ERA and 28/3 K/BB in his last 19.2 IP. Undisputed top dynasty pitcher in the game

25) (25) (29) (37) (37) Freddie Freeman LAD, 1B, 33.10 – The man is on pace for 20 stolen bases now too. Just not fair. He’s almost 34 years old, but even this ranking might be too low with zero signs of decline

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on June 19, 2023June 26, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: June 2023 Top 331 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings

It’s Dynasty Baseball Prospects Week over on the Patreon, and the full Top 331 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings are now completed. (Top 25 free here on the Brick Wall). I was super strict with my definition of a prospect in this one again, except with the very recently called up prospects (Matos, Davis, Naylor, Sheehan). May, April, and Off-Season rankings are in parenthesis, in that order. Here is the June 2023 Top 331 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 456 JUNE DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (6/16/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-TOP 44 ROOKIE BALL/DSL PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (5/26/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG! (5/16/23)

1) (2) (6) (13) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.6 – Holliday’s dominating performance as a 19 year old at High-A (166 wRC+ in 44 games) not only makes him the #1 prospect in baseball, it also vaults him into the Top 50 of my Updated Top 456 June Dynasty Baseball Rankings. He’s the best new Holliday since National Pizza Day was invented in the year 2000 … well, at least until Jackson’s younger brother Ethan Holliday hits the scene in 2025

2) (6) (3) (7) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 20.11 – Slashing .369/.424/.655 with 4 homers, 6 steals, and a 13.0%/7.6% K%/BB% in his last 20 games at Double-A. He figured out his contact issues, bringing his K% well out of the danger zone to 24.3% on the season

3) (5) (4) (3) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.3 – The 94 wRC+ in 59 games at Double-A is mediocre, but the 9 homers, 19 steals, and a 23.6% K% from a 19 year old is still very exciting

4) (7) (14) (8) James Wood WAS, OF, 20.9 – Hit tool is getting exposed at Double-A with a 34.7%/5.3% K%/BB% in 18 games. It’s basically exactly what you didn’t want to see, but he’s only 20, and it’s understandable that there will be an adjustment period

5) (11) (47) (92) Junior Caminero TBR, 3B, 19.11 – Called up to Double-A and he hasn’t missed a beat with a 19.4%/8.3% K%/BB% and 2 homers in 17 games

6) (18) (23) (25) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.2 – Pete Crow has a chance to be a true fantasy monster with 9 homers (58.4% FB%), 16 steals, and a .280 BA in 48 games at Double-A. The 23.1%/6.7% K%/BB% is mediocre, which keeps him from ranking even higher than this

7) (43) (76) (121) Luis Matos SFG, OF, 21.4 – He was doing his best Wander Franco impression at Triple-A with elite contact rates, developing power and some speed before earning a call to the majors. He’s yet to strikeout in the bigs with a 0.0%/29.4% K%/BB%, which has led to a .946 OPS in 17 PA, but the 77.2 MPH EV and 27.6 ft/sec sprint speed shows there is some risk that the power/speed combo won’t be huge

8) (8) (36) (58) Gavin Williams CLE, RHP, 23.10 – The Triston McKenzie injury moves Williams one step closer to a call-up, even if Cleveland doesn’t decide to turn to him quite yet

9) (NA) (8) (14) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 23.7 – Here is what I wrote about Grayson in my Top 26 Prospects to Stash for 2023 Impact Only on Friday, “Grayson may have finally found his rhythm for the first time all season. He has a 2.50 ERA with a 27/8 K/BB in 18 IP since getting sent back down to Triple-A. Their GM, Mike Elias, was obviously on to something when he talked shit about Grayson in spring training and didn’t have him break camp with the team. It was a continuation of his struggles when he returned in September of last year from a lat strain and didn’t look completely right. Before going down with that injury in 2022, Grayson said it was “hands down the best I’ve ever thrown the baseball in my life.” Pitching is all about rhythm, and the injury threw him off, but it looks like he’s finding it again. I’m sure Baltimore will be patient the second time around, but he’s on the verge on earning a 2nd shot.”

10) (12) (18) (21) Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 19.6 – Has progressed to throwing bullpens which is a very nice hurdle to clear. Without the injury risk, he would be the top pitching prospect in the game, and even with the injury risk he might still deserve that top spot

11) (21) (59) (83) Henry Davis PIT, C, 23.8 – I ranked Davis 2nd overall on Friday’s Stash article, and I absolutely nailed it with him getting the call to the majors. He has the chance to be a true elite hitting catcher who will also get full time at bats with the ability to play in the OF

12) (9) (32) (38) Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 23.2 – Returned from injury and is back to raking with a 1.003 OPS in his last 10 games at Triple-A. Aaron Hicks hot streak complicates his path to playing time

13) (14) (41) (30) Noelvi Marte CIN, SS, 21.7 – Doing it all at Double-A with power (8 homers), speed (10 steals) and hit (16.9%/9.9% K%/BB%) in 47 games, but trying to figure out his path to playing time puts my mind in a pretzel

14) (16) (15) (10) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.5 – .210 BA and 106 wRC+ in 58 games at Double-A doesn’t look great, but the 10 homers, 16 steals, and 26.7%/18.7% K%/BB% shows the fantasy upside. The hit tool is risky, but I’m not passing up on this kind of upside, and keep in mind he’s still only 20 in the upper minors

15) (10) (5) (19) Kyle Manzardo TBR, 1B, 22.11 – Not exactly kicking the door down to Tampa with a 113 wRC+ in 60 games at Triple-A, but his hit/power combo still makes him one of the safest bats in the minors

16) (13) (12) (16) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 20.10 – He’s considered week to week with biceps inflammation since leaving his last start on May 4th

17) (15) (13) (34) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.9 – Carter’s on the rehab trail from a wrist injury and should return to Double-A soon. The early season power binge proved to be a mirage, but he’s still only 20, so the power uptick could come in time, and his speed should buoy his fantasy profile until it does

18) (37) (88) (97) Christian Encarnacion-Strand CIN, 1B/3B, 23.6 – Massively improving his only weakness, like he simply flipped a switch, with a 15.3%/20.4% K%/BB% in his last 20 games. He’s also getting some run in the outfield. The callup has to be coming any day now

19) (17) (22) (48) Coby Mayo BAL, 3B, 21.6 – Mayo’s homered in 3 of his last 4 games to bring his season wRC+ at Double-A up to 163. Maybe now he’ll start to get the respect he deserves

20) (19) (31) (31) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 20.6 – Called up to Double-A and is struggling with a 51 wRC+ in 16 games, but the 3 homers and 21.1%/8.5% K%/BB% shows he will be fine

21) (22) (45) (74) Jordan Westburg BAL, SS, 24.3 – What does this man have to do to get the call? Because apparently hitting 17 homers in 62 games at Triple-A isn’t enough

22) (24) (46) (47) Harry Ford SEA, C, 20.3 – Ford has the ability to be a near elite dynasty asset, but it doesn’t seem like he gets valued like that. He’s doing it all at High-A with 8 homers, 13 steals, and a 19.3%/18.9% K%/BB% in 59 games

23) (47) (141) (102) Carson Williams TBR, SS, 19.11 – You guys know I’ve been hyping Williams hard for weeks now. 25.8% K% in his last 38 games is very reasonable considering his plus power (9 homers), speed (11 steals) and plus SS glove in 48 games at High-A. He’s a near elite prospect

24) (23) (44) (44) Luisangel Acuna TEX, SS/2B, 21.3 – Power hasn’t been optimal with only 4 homers in 54 games at Double-A, but everything else has been great with elite speed (29 steals) and a strong plate approach (21.1%/10.0% K%/BB%)

25) (64) (113) (193) Emmet Sheehan LAD, RHP, 22.6 – Made his MLB debut, and while it’s hard to argue against 6 no hit innings, there was one bright red flag. The famed changeup didn’t earn a single whiff. He wouldn’t be the first plus changeup guy to underwhelm in the majors (see, Gavin Stone)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on June 19, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Welcome to June Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings Week!

June Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings Week has arrived, and as usual, I will go over 300 deep with blurbs for almost every player. I will be strict with my definition of a prospect except for the super recently called up guys like Sheehan, Naylor, and Henry Davis. And speaking of, I absolutely nailed the Davis callup in Friday’s Stash article, ranking him 2nd overall (I nailed Naylor too, but that one was easier). First part of the rankings will drop later today or tom morning at latest. Catch you then …

-Halp

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 456 JUNE DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (6/16/23)
-TOP 44 ROOKIE BALL/DSL PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (5/26/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG! (5/16/23)

Posted on June 5, 2023June 9, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: June Top 456 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

It’s Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week over on the Patreon! As usual, I will go over 400 deep with blurbs for just about everyone. May, April, and Off-Season Rankings are in parenthesis, in that order. Here is the June Top 456 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 314 MAY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 44 ROOKIE BALL/DSL PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (5/26/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG! (5/16/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (5/19/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-PREDICTING THE 2024 TOP 50 PROSPECTS RANKS

1) (1) (1) (1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 28.11 – Still King

2) (2) (3) (3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 25.6 – 94.9 MPH EV and 13.4% K% are both career highs. .459 xwOBA is 2nd to only Aaron Judge. And to top it all off he’s on pace for over 70 stolen bases. This might be the closest I’ve been to even considering moving Ohtani off that top spot.

3) (8) (24) (24) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.9 – 30.1 ft/sec sprint is the 4th fastest in the league behind Bobby Witt, Bubba Thompson, and Trea Turner, in that order. He combines the speed with a 20.5%/10.9% K%/BB% and a 90.3 MPH EV. He deserves this #3 ranking

4) (3) (2) (2) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 22.5 – April just might not be his month. Started to heat up in May like last year, slashing .364/.375/.600 with 3 homers, 4 steals, and a 14/0 K/BB in his last 13 games. As long as he keeps crushing the ball (93.1 MPH) and is lightning fast (29.5 MPH), I’ll continue to overlook the mediocre plate approach

5) (7) (9) (7) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, SS/OF, 24.5 – All the worries that he would stop running due to the injuries have proven to be unfounded as he’s jacked 6 bags in 39 games. His 19.4% K% is a career best too for good measure

Shadow5) (3) (3) (6) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 28.11

6) (9) (12) (16) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 22.3 – Remember when people worried about Franco’s future stolen base totals when he was a prospect? Well, he’s on pace for over 50 stolen bases. The new rules obviously help, but he was underestimated there no matter how you slice it

7) (6) (5) (4) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 25.11 – 9 homers with a 1.011 OPS in his last 28 games. If you don’t care about steals, he could rank as high as 3rd overall

8) (11) (7) (5) Juan Soto SDP, OF, 24.7 – Slashing .315/.483/.593 with 6 homers, 5 steals, and a 27/34 K/BB in his last 33 games. I feel like we go through this “is Soto really not that good?” thing at some point every season, and the answer always ends up being “he is that good.”

9) (4) (4) (6) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 26.5 – Homer power is down a bit with only 7 homers in 57 games, partly due to a career low 13.3 degree launch, but with everything else looking great, I’m guessing he will go on a homer binge in the near future

10) (5) (6) (9) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 24.3 – .677 OPS in his last 25 games has brought his season numbers down to a pedestrian area, but it’s a just a cold streak. The .403 xwOBA is in the top 3% of the league. Just look at Juan Soto, you always want to be buying these small dips in superstar’s production if it leaves open even the smallest of buy windows

11) (14) (8) (10) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 31.1 – Regression? He’s actually managed to improve with a career high 97.2 MPH EV and .476 xwOBA. If you are in win mode, he would rank as high as 3rd overall

12) (12) (11) (13) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 25.3 – He’s improving his strength, taking the hit tool to the next level with a .329 BA and .331 xBA, but he hasn’t improved his weaknesses (BB% and launch), and he’s also not running (2 steals)

13) (13) (13) (8) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS/3B, 23.0 – If you can buy low based off the .694 OPS, I would jump all over it. He has a .347 xwOBA vs. a .297 wOBA, and his FB/LD EV is 94.1 MPH, which was his biggest problem last year. He’s taken a step forward from 2022, but the surface stats just haven’t shown it yet.

14) (20) (20) (18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 30.8 – Returned much earlier than expected from Tommy John and is right back to being elite with a .385 xwOBA. If you are looking for kinks in the armor, he only has 3 homers in 28 games, and his 37.8% whiff% is a career high by far, but considering the circumstances and how great he’s performed, I’m inclined to overlook it.

15) (18) (18) (26) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 28.6 – .402 xwOBA is a career best. He’s on pace for almost 60 homers

16) (10) (10) (14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 26.7 – I’ve seen people tempted to sell low on Devers. Do not do that. He’s still absolutely crushing the ball with a 93.2 MPH EV and his .370 xwOBA is still in the near elite range

17) (24) (36) (36) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 24.7 – 40.6% K% leads all qualified pitchers by a mile (Ohtani is 2nd with a 33.8% K%). Only deGrom’s 39.1% K% can even get within spitting distance of Strider if you lower the threshold down to 30 IP. Strider is the new top dog pitcher in dynasty.

18) (21) (17) (17) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 30.8 – .997 OPS with 11 homers in his last 31 games

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on June 5, 2023June 6, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Welcome to Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week!

Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week is back for the June Update. As usual, I will go over 400 deep with a quick blurb for just about everyone. First post coming later today or tom morning at the latest.

Also with rookie ball starting up, I will try to pull double duty and give a quick update on any fun early season performances. And speaking of fun early season performances, my top FYPD pitching target, Noah Schultz CHW, LHP, 19.8, came out guns blazing in his first start of the season on Friday, going 2 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 5/0 K/BB. The fastball sat mid 90’s!!! and he looked like Baby Randy Johnson out there on the mound. He is about to explode.

-Halp

Posted on June 2, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 44 Rookie Ball/DSL Rankings

Rookie Ball and the DSL start next week, and that means there is a whole new group of breakouts ready to get put through the Dynasty Baseball community hype machine. Here is a ranking of the top 44 guys to keep an eye on, discussing their upside, downside, and prime projection (top 5 free here on IBW):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 314 MAY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 433 MAY DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (5/26/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG! (5/16/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (5/19/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-PREDICTING THE 2024 TOP 50 PROSPECTS RANKS

1) Yasser Mercedes MIN, OF, 18.6

Upside – Top 5 prospect. Mercedes has the potential for plus production in every category. He looks the part, he got the big signing bonus, and he destroyed the DSL in 2022. If he performs well in stateside rookie ball, his hype will explode very quickly.

Downside – A 19.9% K% in the DSL isn’t bad, but it’s not great either. The downside is that the K% is more in the high 20’s against more advanced competition. There is also a chance the power simply never comes to the level we need to see.

Prime Projection: 77/22/79/.253/.325/.448/19

2) Lazaro Montes SEA, OF, 18.7

Upside – Top 10 prospect. Montas doesn’t have the speed, or the hit tool to likely ever be in consideration for top prospect in the game, but his power is in the elite of the elite, and that alone can get him around top 10 status at peak. He’s also a great athlete, so it’s not like he’s just a lumbering slugger.

Downside – The K% starts getting closer and closer to 40%

Prime Projection: 76/34/84/.238/.320/.502/4

3) Felnin Celesten SEA, SS, 17.9

Upside – Josue De Paula

Midside – Cristhian Vaquero

Downside – Erick Pena

Prime Projection: 83/26/87/.268/.336/.470/18

4) Jaison Chourio CLE, OF, 18.0

Upside – Jackson Chourio

Midside – Luisangel Acuna

Downside – Elijah Tatis

Prime Projection: 84/19/75/.273/.344/.441/16

5) Oswaldo Osorio LAD, SS/3B, 18.2

Upside – Top 20 prospect. If Osorio keeps the K rate in check, he has the type of power/speed combo to get the dynasty community in a tither. Watch that K% like a hawk, and be very quick to jump on him to it looks good.

Downside – He had a .239 BA with a 23.5% K% in the DSL. The downside is that he will always be that high risk, high reward guy

Prime Projection: 75/23/79/.244/.329/.448/11

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 29, 2023May 29, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Top 9 Memorial Day Dynasty Baseball Trade Tactics

The time has come in the Dynasty Baseball season where continuing to kick the can down the road can have an increasingly deleterious impact on your team. You need to decide if you are pushing your chips in, or if you’re regrouping for future seasons. Before you turn around, all the best win now, and win later pieces will be taken off the board. Now is the time to strike. Here are the Top 9 Memorial Day Dynasty Baseball Trade Tactics:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 314 MAY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 433 MAY DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (5/26/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG! (5/16/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (5/19/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-PREDICTING THE 2024 TOP 50 PROSPECTS RANKS

Disclaimer

I hope this is taken in a lighthearted way as I both respect the troops (both my grandfathers fought in WWII and my father was in the National Guard) and also don’t want to minimize the very serious nature of war. Sports were basically invented from Warfare, so they’ve always been tied together and you see a lot of war jargon used for sports to this day. This writeup is in honor of Memorial Day

1) The Sniper

Maybe it’s because I just read “American Sniper: The Autobiography of the Most Lethal Sniper in U.S. Military History” by Chris Kyle, or maybe it’s because it’s Memorial Day, but I have military tactics on the mind. I scooped the book for $2 at my local hipster bookstore. Yes, I’m the type of guy to peruse hipster bookstores .., and I’m also the type of guy to buy the book that is about a sniper with over 160 kills. What can I say, I’m multifaceted. One of the other books I bought was “Zen Mind, Beginner’s Mind” by Shunryu Suzuki. Don’t try to put me in a box ha … So on that note, let’s kick things off with the classic Sniper technique. You have only one player in your crosshairs, and there is no need to complicate things by putting players on the league trade block or announcing to the league your general intentions. Get in touch with the owner of your target privately, and take your best shot on closing the deal quickly and quietly.

2) Rapid Deployment

Maybe you have a pretty good team that just can’t get over the hump and you’ve finally decided to call it. Because you aren’t a bottom dweller, you might be stacked with good pieces to sell. It’s the perfect situation for Rapid Deployment. Put all of your bangers on the trade block at once and announce to the league that you are open for business. It will create a feeding frenzy. A friend in my 12 teamer just did this and he made about 4 deals, involving like 30 players in under 48 hours. He came away with Caminero, Tiedemann, Endy, Soderstrom, Bibee, Skubal, Grissom, Springs, 4 future firsts and more. It took some liquid courage for him to do it as he just emailed the league this morning saying “Hell of a ride, I think I was drunk for 34 of those hours so I’ll have to circle back to see who I even got.” Don’t be afraid to use performance enhancers if you have to!

3) Night Combat

Get em while they are vulnerable and under the cover of darkness. Maybe you can handle your alcohol better than they can (night vision goggles). Or maybe they are more likely to make bad choices when they are tired and exhausted after a long day of work. Don’t talk trade when they are the most alert and discerning in the middle of the day. Hit them with that offer right before they are ready to hit the sheets. Put a little pressure on them to make a decision and tell them it can’t wait until morning. Bleary eyed and with their defenses down, they just might hit the accept button when they normally wouldn’t have.

4) Recon

You don’t want to get ripped off, or have to pay much more than your league mates are paying for similar type deals. It’s important to do your research and look at recently completed deals in your league to see what the going prices are. There also might be multiple similarly valued players who you would be happy to trade for. Make sure to reach out to all of those owners to see what they want for those players in general. You don’t want to pay much more to an owner who won’t budge when you can get a similar player from another owner who might be much more reasonable on price.

5) The False Flag

This is where you create a fake email address using another league member’s name in the email address, and fire off some low ball offers for the player you are targeting. Make sure to tell them that “you” got a new email. This softens the target and lowers expectations for your eventual much better offer. (This one is obviously just a joke. I would never do this or recommend doing this ha)

6) Guerrilla Warfare

This is where you lie in wait and stay patient in order to pick off bargain deals one by one. Maybe you see a guy who has been on the trade block for a little while and still hasn’t been dealt. Or maybe you see someone who has yet to be put the block for whatever reason. That is your opportunity to sneak in there before anyone else even realizes what happened.

7) Shock and Awe

You know your target, and you are going to respond with overwhelming force to close that deal. You know you have the goods to get it done, and you aren’t interested in beating around the bush. Make them an offer they can’t refuse right off the bat and get your guy.

8) The Feigned Retreat

Sometimes you have to prove that you are willing to walk away from the deal. If negotiations aren’t going how you want, it’s time to pretend to back out of the deal to lure your trade partner into a position of vulnerability. Cut off communications for a few days and see if they come back to you ready to renegotiate a more fair deal when they realize you mean business. Even if they don’t get back to you, you can circle back to them after a few cool off days and try to take a different angle to find a deal that works for both. But point being, don’t just capitulate if you don’t like how things are going. Back out of the deal and try to come back to it later with a new strategy.

9) Disinformation

I already wrote up the Disinformation strategy last year in my Top 10 Trade Negotiation Techniques on Patreon which is another super fun write-up. I also used those techniques in my “How to close the deal section” of my Dynasty Baseball Targets write-up that dropped on Friday.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 22, 2023May 26, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: May 2023 Top 314 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings

I was super strict with my definition of a prospect in this one. Only players currently in the minors and who haven’t exceeded their rookie eligibility were eligible for this list. This was done to really highlight the next wave of talent. Previous rankings from April through the off-season are in parenthesis. Here is the May 2023 Top 314 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE UPDATED PROSPECTS RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 433 MAY DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (5/26/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG! (5/16/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (5/19/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-PREDICTING THE 2024 TOP 50 PROSPECTS RANKS

1) (7) (6) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.4 – Slashing .325/.435/.662 with 6 homers, 5 steals, and a 20.4%/15.2% in his last 19 games at Triple-A. The power/speed combo is unmatched, and the improved K rate propels him into the top spot. Proximity gives him the edge over Holliday as Elly also ranked 1st on my Top 25 Prospects to Stash for 2023 Impact Only.

2) (6) (13) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.5 – Putting up stupid numbers at High-A, slashing .395/.505/.724 with 4 homers, 8 steals, and a 16.1%/18..3% K%/BB% in 21 games. Perfect combo of floor and high ceiling

3) (25) (24) Royce Lewis MIN, SS, 23.11 – From the 5/17/23 Dynasty Baseball Rundown: “Rolls-Royce comes back from ACL tears like he’s going into the shop for upgrades. It’s like an episode of Pimp My Knee.” He’s jacked 3 homers with 3 steals and a .364 BA in 6 games in the upper minors since returning. He ascended to top prospect in the game status before going down with the ACL injury, and he’s picking up right where he left off.

4) (2) (5) Jordan Walker STL, 3B/OF, 21.0 – Hasn’t improved his launch and isn’t performing well at Triple-A with a 67 wRC+ in 21 games

5) (4) (3) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.2 – Holding his own at Double-A as a 19 year old with 5 homers, 10 steals and a 24.1%/7.2% K%/BB% in 37 games

6) (3) (7) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 20.10 – Hit tool is getting exposed at Double-A with a 31.7% K% and .162 BA, but bad luck is playing a role with a .203 BABIP, and the power/speed combo looks great with 5 homers and 10 steals in 32 games. I would buy low if you can

7) (14) (8) James Wood WAS, OF, 20.8 – There is always going to be some hit tool risk with players this tall, but it’s been improving over his last 8 games with a 19.4% K%. High walk rate (13.9% BB%) also mitigates some of that risk

8) (36) (58) Gavin Williams CLE, RHP, 23.9 – Williams is the new #1 overall pitching prospect still in the minors. 2.10 ERA with a 36.7%/10.2% K%/BB% in 25.2 IP at Triple-A and has the huge stuff to back it up led by an upper 90’s fastball. He has ace written all over him

9) (32) (38) Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 23.1 – Across the board destruction of Triple-A. It can’t be much longer before he gets the call

10) (5) (19) Kyle Manzardo TBR, 1B, 22.10 – Hit tool really hasn’t been all that great with a 20.2% K% and .263 BA in 39 games at Triple-A, and with Tampa’s extreme depth, path to playing time isn’t exactly super clear. On the flip side his power has taken a step forward with 8 homers and he’s one of the safest bats in the minors

11) (47) (92) Junior Caminero TBR, 3B, 19.10 – There isn’t much speed here and the 24.7%/6.2% K%/BB% isn’t that great. I only bring up the negatives because his hype is through the roof and it’s worth mentioning he’s not the perfect prospect. Having said that, the guy is obviously a beast with 11 homers and a 187 wRC+ in 33 games at High-A

12) (18) (21) Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 19.5 – Continues to ramp up from the elbow injury with no setbacks yet

13) (12) (16) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 20.9 – Left his last start with an arm injury, but they are hopeful it isn’t that serious and that he will be back throwing soon

14) (41) (30) Noelvi Marte CIN, SS, 21.6 – From overrated to underrated. 8 homers, 8 steals, and a 17.9%/9.3% K%/BB% in 37 games at Double-A

15) (13) (34) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.8 – Power hasn’t taken a step forward yet with only 4 homers in 32 games at Double-A, but he’s still only 20 and he does everything else well

16) (15) (10) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.4 – .224 BABIP is still holding down the BA (.197) in 34 games at Double-A, but the 24.7%/20% K%/BB% looks good and he’s been much better of late with a .262 BA in his last 15 games

17) (22) (48) Coby Mayo BAL, 3B, 21.5 – Dominating Double-A, slashing .270/.396/.492 with 5 homers and a 24%/14.3% K%/BB% in 36 games. It’s good for a 145 wRC+. He still doesn’t get the respect he deserves

18) (23) (25) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.1 – 3.5% BB% in 25 games at Double-A is extremely low and it’s not an aberration as he had a 4.9% BB% in 63 games at High-A last year. I only bring it up because everything else looks great, but the low walk rate could have him hitting towards the bottom of the lineup

19) (31) (31) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 20.5 – Quietly dominating High-A with a 144 wRC+. He’s a complete hitter

20) (24) (12) Druw Jones ARI, OF, 19.5 – Was starting to find his footing at Single-A with a 16.7%/12.5% K%/BB% in his last 4 games before going down with the quad injury. It feels silly to say this, but definitely don’t panic based on the 10 game sample

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 22, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Welcome to Prospects Rankings Week!

Prospects Rankings Week is back with a vengeance for May. As usual, I will go over 300 deep with a quick blurb for almost everyone. I’m going to be super strict with my definition of a prospect (only players still in in the minors will qualify), so this list will really highlight the next wave of talent. First post drops later today (or tom morning at the latest). Catch you in a few …

-Halp

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE UPDATED PROSPECTS RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 433 MAY DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (4/28/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG! (5/16/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (5/19/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-PREDICTING THE 2024 TOP 50 PROSPECTS RANKS