Posted on by Michael Halpern

Travis Demeritte, 2016 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Breakout

Travis Demeritte is the Minor League version of Trevor Story. Like Story, he has been red hot to start the season, triple-slashing .435/.481/1.304, with 5 homers, and 2 steals in his first 6 games at High-A. Like Story, he absolutely crushes the ball when he makes contact, but has a history of struggling to make contact in the first place. And most importantly, like Story, he has a last name that is low hanging fruit for people that like to make corny puns. Don’t worry, I’ll spare you … this time. So why isn’t everyone hyping Demeritte to death like they are Story? Well, probably because nobody plays in a MiLB Fantasy League. But we do play in Dynasty Leagues, and now is the time to jump on the Demeritte bandwagon.

The Texas Rangers selected Demeritte, 2B, out of high school with the 30th overall pick in the 2013 draft. He showed his considerable talent right off the bat, putting up an .856 OPS, with 4 homers, and 5 steals in 39 Rookie ball games. It also came with a 28% K%. He then cranked up the power and strikeouts even more in 2014 at Single-A, jacking 25 homers with a 36.7% K%. Even with his considerable strikeout issues, the power surge made Demeritte an interesting sleeper candidate going into 2015. It turned out he would have bigger problems than strikeouts to deal with.

After displaying that same power/strikeout profile in the first 48 games of 2015, Demeritte got popped for taking the banned substance furosemide, a known masking agent for other drugs, and was suspended for 80 games. Coming into 2016, it was fair to wonder how much of that power was natural, and how much was drug induced. But as you know from my opener, we don’t have to wonder anymore, as the power is very real (or he found a better masking agent). He is still striking out 29.6% of the time, but if Story has taught us anything, it is that players with strikeout issues can succeed if they smack the crap outta the ball when they do make contact, and Demeritte does just that.

I give myself 3 demerits for not being higher on Demeritte this preseason (sorry, I couldn’t resist!), but any questions I had coming into this year have been answered. He is a boom or bust power hitting middle infielder with opportunistic speed. If you don’t mind some strikeout risk with your prospects, Demeritte is certainly one to jump on before word of his scorching start gets out.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Fantasy Baseball Minor League Prospect Rundown: Week 1

Every Monday, I will be running down some of the notable performances from around the Minor Leagues over the past week, or anything that might have caught my eye in general. Here is the 2016 week 1 fantasy baseball Minor League prospect rundown:

Yoan Moncada BOS, 2B – Triple-slashing, .308/.471/.462, with 4 BBs, 1 K and 4 steals in his first 18 PA at High-A. As a lifelong Yankees fan, I still get a sick feeling in my stomach whenever I see his name. He should be ours!

Tyler Glasnow PIT, RHP – Did Tyler Glasnow things in his season debut at Triple-A (5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks). It’s only a matter of time before there is an opening for him in Pittsburgh’s rotation.

Andrew Benintendi BOS, OF – Picked up right where he left off last season, putting up a .938 OPS in his first 4 games at High-A. He could have easily started the year at Double-A like many of the other top college hitters from the 2015 class, so I would expect Benintendi to continue to put up impressive numbers until he gets his first real challenge at Double-A.

Jose Berrios MIN, RHP – Struck out 9 batters in 5 IP in his season debut at Triple-A. He walked 4 as well, but considering his past history of excellent control and command, I wouldn’t even blink an eye at that. His numbers should look ridiculous this year against overmatched minor league hitters. He is MLB ready.

J.P. Crawford PHI, SS – Off to a slow start at Double-A, slashing .235/.316/.235, with 4 Ks and 2 BBs in 4 games played. Obviously a 4 game sample is meaningless, but I’m including him in the rundown just as a reminder that his value in real life is higher than fantasy.

Joey Gallo TEX, 3B – Is now definitely being groomed to replace Adrian Beltre at 3B in 2017. He is off to strong start at Triple-A, putting up a 1.317 OPS in his first 4 games, which is nice to see after he struggled there last season (.739 OPS in 53 games).

Brendan Rodgers COL, SS – Rodgers is the forgotten Colorado SS of the future (hello Trevor Story), but while the present belongs to Story, the future may very well still belong to Rodgers. The uber-talented Rodgers has looked good in his first taste of full season pro ball, slashing .333/.375/.600 and hitting one homer in 16 PA.

Carson Fulmer CHW, RHP – Fulmer got absolutely destroyed in his season debut at Double-A, giving up 5 ERs in 2.2 IP, walking 4, and striking out none. He worked the entire game from the stretch, which is something pitchers usually do when they are trying to simplify their mechanics. It is only one start, but this is definitely something to keep your eye on.

Aaron Judge NYY, OF – After struggling with strikeouts at Triple-A last season, it would have been nice for Judge to get off to a better start this year, but it was not to be. He struck out 5 times and walked once in his first 3 games. It is too early to judge Judge (and you thought bad “Story” puns were all you had to worry about, hah!), but improving his strikeout rate will be something to watch for the rest of the season.

Victor Robles WASH, OF – He is dominating full season pro ball exactly like he dominated Rookie ball and Low-A. This kid is looking like a good bet to be the next big thing.

Anderson Espinoza BOS, RHP – 5.0 IP, 0 ERs, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, and 4 Ks in his first start at Single-A this season. The pitching version of Robles. These guys are the not too distant future.

Dillon Tate TEX, RHP – 4.2 IP, 0 ERs, 5 Hits, 1 BB, and 6 Ks in his season debut at Single-A. He is still a bit of an unknown with only one year as a starter under his belt, so the more information we get on him the better. Considering he is much more advanced than Single-A hitters, this might not tell us much either.

David Dahl COL, OF – 2 homers and a steal in his first 4 games at Double-A. If he can stay healthy, this might be the beginning of a monster season for Dahl.

Raul Mondesi Jr. KC, SS – This is an important year for Mondesi to establish his bat as a legitimate threat. This is the first year he will be repeating a Minor League level (Double-A), and while he is still much younger than his competition, he isn’t so young that his offensive struggles can be completely ignored anymore. He’s been good so far, triple-slashing .313/.353/.688, with 2 homers and a steal in his first 4 games. If he keeps this up, he will be a top 10 prospect by the end of the season.

Jacob Faria TB, RHP – 5.2 IP, 3 ERs, 3 Hits, 1 BB, and 8 Ks in his season debut at Double-A. If he can continue to maintain the strikeout numbers he put up at Double-A in the second half of last season, his prospect status will be on the rise.

Ozzie Albies ATL, SS – Atlanta pushed the 19-year-old Albies all the way to Double-A this season, and he has responded to the tune of a .389 BA in 19 PA. Atlanta is stacked at SS with both Albies and 2015 1st overall pick Dansby Swanson (who started the year at High-A), so it will be interesting to see how this all shakes out down the line.

Tyler Jay MIN, LHP – Minnesota took a shot on the college reliever Jay with the 6th pick of the 2015 draft, and he impressed in his first outing at High-A (5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks). He will be a fast riser if he keeps turning in performances like this.

Travis Demeritte TEX, 2B – The 30th overall pick in the 2013 draft, the 21-year-old Demeritte has already ripped 4 homers in his first 4 games at High-A. That now gives him 38 homers in 214 career Minor League games, to go along with 22 steals. He has major strikeout issues, but Demeritte is certainly one to watch.

Edwin Diaz SEA, RHP – Seattle’s top pitching prospect dominated in his first appearance of the season at Double-A (6.0 IP, 0 ERs, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks). He has a 9.3 K/9 in his Minor League career, and will call the spacious confines of Safeco Field his home park. The time is probably now to grab him.

Lucas Sims ATL, RHP – The 21st overall pick in the 2012 draft, the 21-year-old Sims is looking to reestablish his prospect value after a couple of uneven years. He got off to a strong start this season by striking out 9 batters and giving up only 1 hit in 5 IP at Double-A. He has the kind of strikeout potential fantasy owners love, and a pitcher’s park waiting for him in Atlanta.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty League Prospect Sleepers

Opening Day is here! No, MLB is not having another Opening Day (they’ve already had two). Today is the kick off to the 2016 MiLB season, and for Dynasty league owners, it can be just as exciting as MLB Opening Day(s). So please take a minute to stop rosterbating over your brilliant Trevor Story pick up – who I touted way back in February as a top 30 prospect (you’re welcome), but also told you to not get too excited for this year (oops … although my concerns still stand, clearly it is ok to be excited) –  and start getting ready to find the next under hyped, underrated stud. Here are the 2016 fantasy baseball dynasty league prospect sleepers that you should keep your eye on, if you haven’t scooped them already:

1) Bobby Bradley CLE, 1B – Bradley fell to the 3rd round of the 2014 draft, but that was solely due to his big signing bonus demands, and not his talent level. All he has done is rake once reaching pro ball, jacking 8 homers in 39 rookie ball games in 2014, and 27 homers in Single-A last season. The 19-year-old Bradley will start this season with the High-A Lynchburg Hillcats, and it won’t take long before the hype starts to catch up with the talent. I ranked Bradley 18th in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

2) Derek Fisher HOU, OF – Wrote a Derek Fisher, 2016 Fantasy Prospect Sleeper article, and ranked him 20th in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

3) Josh Hader MIL, LHP – A funky delivery and bullpen concerns have kept the hype for Hader in check, but considering the position the Brewers are in right now, they have every incentive to continue to develop him as a starter. The lanky 6’3’’ Hader is a strikeout machine (10.3 K/9 in Double-A last season), who relies heavily on his big fastball. If he can show improvement with his slider and/or changeup this year, more people will turn into believers. I ranked Hader 21st in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

4) Tom Murphy COL, C – Murphy hit 20 homers in 105 games last season splitting time between Double-A and Triple-A, and then he hit 3 dingers in just 39 MLB PA. His defense has also improved to the point that nobody doubts he can stick at catcher. Nick Hundley’s contract runs out after this season, so the door is wide open for Murphy to win the starting job next year. His high strikeout numbers are the reason he is not more highly touted, but a poor average in not a killer at the catcher position, especially with the power he should provide at Coors. I ranked Murphy 32nd in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

5) Alen Hanson PIT, 2B – Wrote an Alen Hanson, 2016 Fantasy Prospect Sleeper article, and ranked him 33rd in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

6) Willie Calhoun LAD, 2B/OF – Covered Calhoun in my Finding the Next A.J. Reed article, and ranked him 43rd in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

7) Harrison Bader STL, OF – Covered Bader in my Finding the Next A.J. Reed article, and ranked him 51st in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

8) Jacob Faria TB, RHP – Put up a pitching line of 2.51/1.09/96 in 75.1 IP in Double-A last season. Doesn’t have the big fastball, but his delivery creates a lot of deception. Also gets a bump due to Tampa Bay’s success with developing pitchers like him. If he can keep up those strikeout numbers this season, people won’t be sleeping on him anymore. I ranked Faria 68th in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

9) Jack Flaherty STL, RHP – We can “own” prospects in fantasy, but we still need to rely on actual baseball teams to develop them, and there isn’t a better team at player development than the St. Louis Cardinals. Flaherty struck out 97 batters in 95 IP in his first full season of pro ball at Single-A. His fastball sat in the low 90’s last year, but if it ticks up a bit after adding strength this offseason, he could rocket up prospect lists. I ranked Flaherty 69th in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

10) Justus Sheffield CLE, LHP – Cleveland has been on fire of late developing starting pitchers. Time to jump on the bandwagon. Sheffield struck out 138 batters in 127.2 IP in Single-A last season, and actually got better as the season went along, dominating in August and September. He is undersized for a starter at 5’10’’, which is probably why he has flown under the radar, but if he keeps putting up big strikeout numbers, he will force people to take notice. I ranked Sheffield 70th in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

11) Tyler O’Neill SEA, OF – Wrote a Tyler O’Neill, 2016 Fantasy Prospect Sleeper article, and ranked him 78th in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

12) Austin Byler ARI, 1B – Covered Byler in my Finding the Next A.J. Reed article, and ranked him 99th in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post. (He is suspended for the first 50 games after testing positive for an amphetamine stimulant.)

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Will Arnett, Netflix’s Flaked Review

It is hard to imagine Will Arnett playing any other character than the imbecile. He did it so well as Gob Bluth in Arrested Development, and he has since built an entire career on that character archetype. He once said the reason he got into comedy in the first place, was because his attempts at dramatic acting were met with laughter anyway, so why not go with it. But a decade after Arrested Development got cancelled, it was high time for Arnett to jump back into the dramatic deep end, and he has done just that with Netflix’s new dramedy Flaked.

The first act of Flaked comes off like a watered down version of Californication. Arnett plays a recovering alcoholic, living a romanticized deadbeat lifestyle in Venice Beach. He is an easy going ladies’ man, and everyone’s best friend. He has a smooth line for every situation. But the show is much more than it appears on the surface. There is a deeper, darker side to both Arnett’s character, and the seemingly directionless storylines that are first introduced. You need to let this show grow on you, as it might not catch you right from the get go.

Whatever reservations you will most likely have seeing Arnett play a (semi) serious character, you won’t have the same issues with the supporting cast. All of them absolutely nail their parts. David Sullivan plays the role of Arnett’s bumbling best friend, Ruth Kearney plays his main love interest, Robert Wisdom is cast as the wise friend (maybe there is something to this changing your last name business, after all), and veteran actress Heather Graham brings some gravitas to the show in her role as Arnett’s ex-wife. As for Arnett himself, after the initial shock of seeing him deliver sincere lines that are actually meant to be taken sincerely, he does eventually win you over, and makes it easy to buy into, and even sympathize with his character.

Flaked is best categorized as a slow burner, with each passing episode adding new layers to the previously surface level only interactions. You can’t fully appreciate the nuance of the show until all of the cards have been laid out on the table. It isn’t perfect, and it might take some time to get used to Arnett in this new type of role, but the payoff is worth it in the end. I’ll give Flaked 4 out of 5 stars, and definitely recommend that you give it a shot, if you haven’t already.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 MLB Opening Day Preview

Only Major League Baseball can manage to make Opening Day confusing. It isn’t enough for them to have an extremely convoluted system for the amateur draft/international spending limits, team control/arbitration rules, free agency/qualifying offers, and for the all-star game/World Series home field advantage, but they also need to have two Opening Days! So which one is the real Opening Day? Neither. As the old saying goes, “if you have two Opening Days, you don’t have one.” Or is that for quarterbacks? Either way, here is what to watch for on the day formerly known as Opening Day:

Houston Astros at New York Yankees – Game has been postponed until tomorrow. Smart move for MLB and ESPN to bank on New York weather in April for their opening day, marquee game.

San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers – San Francisco has won the World Series every other year since 2010. They are due. As for Milwaukee, they are far off from competing for a World Series, but they have done a great job rebuilding so far. Talented young slugger Domingo Santana will bat leadoff today vs lefty Madison Bumgarner. Santana triple-slashed .288/.373/.577 in 52 AB’s vs. lefties last season.

Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles – Lots of pure power in this matchup. Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Pedro Alvarez, Byung-ho Park, and Miguel Sano are the headliners. Playing in Baltimore, this entire series could be bombs away if the weather cooperates.

Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers – Battle of the aging aces! Felix Hernandez vs. Cole Hamels.

Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves – Is there a more exciting pitcher/position player combo than Max Scherzer and Bryce Harper? I don’t think so.

Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Indians – The $30-million-dollar ace (Price) vs. the $4.7-million-dollar ace (Kluber). Gotta love baseball’s draconian team control rules.

Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds – Tankapalooza. The winner of this game is really the loser, in the battle to the bottom of the standings.

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres – If Yasiel Puig can get his act together, Kershaw/Puig can rival Scherzer/Harper for most exciting duo.

Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays – Drew Smyly vs. Toronto’s death on lefties lineup will be a fun one to watch. If Smyly shines in this one, the sky is the limit for him.

Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks – The Arizona doubters will be ready to pounce at the first sign of weakness, so it is important for Grienke to get them off to a good start. On Colorado’s side, it will be interesting to see if Trevor Story can carry his Spring Training success over to the regular season.

Chicago White Sox at Oakland A’s –  Strikeout artist Chris Sale vs. control artist Sonny Gray, in a classic battle of power vs. finesse.

Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Angels – The Cubs have finally completed their 107 year rebuild. This could be the year they break the curse.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 NCAA Tournament Final 4 Picks

And then there were 4. North Carolina. Syracuse. Villanova. Oklahoma. Who will prevail? Nobody knows … except for me, and I’m about to tell you down below:

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Syracuse Orange
Spread: NC -9

About 53% of the bets are coming in on the underdog Syracuse. I warned you during football season to beware of the public underdog, and the same applies here. The relatively high 9-point spread seems like Vegas is goading us into taking ‘Cuse, without them having to give up double digit points. North Carolina is 11-0, and has an average margin of victory of 15.8 points when playing on a neutral court this season. They have firmly established themselves as the best team in college basketball during this tournament.

Syracuse has enjoyed an exciting tournament run themselves, with great comeback victories vs. Gonzaga and Virginia. But I don’t see the same heroic effort happening vs. North Carolina tomorrow night.

The Pick: Take North Carolina -9, and bank on the double digit victory like Vegas is.

Villanova Wildcats vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Spread: NOVA -2

This should be one hell of a game. National fan favorite Buddy Hield leads the way for Oklahoma, and he has more than lived up to the hype in the tourney so far. But strong play from his supporting cast is the reason the Sooners have made it this far, and they will need to continue to play well in order to beat a strong Villanova squad.

Nova has been slept on for most of this tournament after several years of disappointing early exits, and they’ve made us all regret it in the form of our busted brackets (thanks Kansas). They have played like they were deserving of a #1 seed, and it is going to take a heck of an effort to knock them off.

The pick: I can’t deny I am a fan of Buddy Hield, and I have Oklahoma going all the way in my (3rd) bracket. I wouldn’t bet on this game, but if I did, I wouldn’t bet against Hield. Give me Oklahoma plus the 2 points.

*If these picks turn out wrong … April Fool’s!

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Felix Hernandez for $46!?!?

I sit on the edge of my shitty wooden chair as the bidding for Felix Hernandez blows past all reasonable estimates. Said chair is at the head of a large, boardroom style table, overflowing with burgers, corned beef hash, cheese fries, beer, and 12 scheming, devious fantasy baseball fanatics who I call my friends. It is our annual dynasty league auction draft located in a private backroom at Smith & Wollensky’s Steakhouse in Manhattan, and you can cut the tension with a butter knife right now (because butter knives are all we have; if you thought $100/person would get you steak at a steakhouse, you thought wrong). The bidding for Felix is down to two people, me and Greg.

“I’ll go $41,” a stone faced Greg announces from the other end of the table.

“$42,” I quickly fire back. The time for games is over. Felix is the last available “ace” on the board. The only other aces who were free agents in this year’s auction, David Price and Zach Grienke, already sold for $45 and $44, respectively ($260 budget). I bowed out of the bidding on both of those guys once the price hit $40, thinking I might be able to get Felix at a slight discount. Hah!

A brief silence falls over the room. “$43,” Greg finally squeaks out, sounding pretty unsure of himself.

I know a bunch of teams have cap space this year, but this is getting out of control. Felix Hernandez had a down year last year! There are red flags! I’m supposed to get him at a discount, goddamnit! I bite down hard, and try to summon some throwaway wisdom to help me rationalize the reckless bid I am about to make. “Fortune favors the bold,” I meekly blurt out to the room. “$44.”

The silence stretches on for longer this time. Greg looks like he might be ready to call it quits. “Alright man, I think I’m going to …” he stops mid-sentence. “Actually, nevermind, I’m going $45.”

You have got to be kidding me! Just at this moment, our waiter rolls in a cart filled with the 12 tequila shots we ordered earlier. I am at my wit’s end. Throwaway wisdom is not going to do it anymore. I need liquid courage! I stand up from this fucking horribly uncomfortable wooden chair, grab one of the glasses filled with a little too much tequila, and fire the shot back like a champ. “Felix Hernandez for 46!?!?” I shout out to the amused faces staring back at me from around the table. I did it! Felix is all but mine. No way Greg goes $47, he almost quit at $45!

“$46.50,” Greg says …

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Trevor Story and Spring Training Exploits

Trevor Story is the 30th ranked prospect in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post that I wrote in early February. I’m higher on him than most. In fact, I think I’m higher on him than any other prospect list I have read. But if you didn’t acquire Story at good value back in February, it is probably too late, as he has absolutely destroyed spring training pitching to the tune of, .378/.451/.911, with 6 homers in 51 PA. It seems like everyone has boarded the hype train. But it brings up the question, should his spring training stats matter?

In the sense that it has won him the starting SS job in Colorado, at least until/if Jose Reyes returns, his spring stats clearly matter. And for people that were either completely unaware of Story, or very down on his potential, then yeah, his monster spring stats should certainly put him on your radar. But for those of us who already knew and believed in the 20/20 upside, should his fantastic spring boost his stock even more? In other words, should we consider him a top 12 SS option for this season? After digging through some minor league stats from past years, the conclusion I came to is that I’m not so sure it should matter at all.

It didn’t take much searching before I found a good comparable, Mike Zunino. Just last spring, Zunino triple-slashed, .353/.431/.882, and jacked 7 homers in 58 spring training PA. Maybe this was a sign that the talented young hitter would finally break out? Nope. He followed that up with a regular season line of .174/.230/.300. The spring stats meant nothing. Similar to Story, Zunino was a young hitter with real strikeout issues. It isn’t a perfect comp, as Zunino can’t draw walks quite as well as Story, and had a history of struggling in the big leagues already. But what it does say to me, is that even an extreme case of spring training success will not guarantee a safe floor, let alone it being a harbinger for great success in the regular season.

There are many more examples. Well regarded hitting prospect Brandon Drury triple-slashed, .435/.533/.957, with 3 homers in 30 spring training PA last year. He then went on to put up a .756 OPS, with 5 total homers in 567 minor league PA split between Double-A and Triple-A, before hitting .214/.254/.375 in his MLB cup of coffee last September. Is he still considered a good hitting prospect? Yes. But were those spring training stats a good indicator for what he might do in his first taste of the majors? No.

We all know the old adage that spring training stats don’t matter, but it doesn’t stop us from getting drawn in year after year. I needed to dig into past spring training stats to remind myself of that. Pitchers are working on specific things and have no interest in making adjustments to what the hitter is doing. If Trevor Story wasn’t on your radar before, consider this his coming out party, but if he was, his hot spring training shouldn’t mean much to you. He is a talented fantasy prospect (top 30 in my book) who can surely surprise right out of the gate, but the more likely scenario is that there will be some bumps along the way. Add in the uncertainly surrounding Jose Reyes’ situation, and I don’t think Story has a great chance of cracking the top 12 this season. For 2016, I will give him a projection of 55/13/51/.250/8. For dynasty leagues, the strong spring only reinforces my high hopes for Story, and I will stick with my prime projection of 79/20/83/.258/14.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

The Argument for Carlos Correa at #4 Overall

“Too risky,” they say. Who is they? Probably you. That’s right, you are a member of the ignominious “they” now. Doesn’t feel so good, does it? But I’m here to make one last ditch effort to try to get you to see the light. Here is the argument for Carlos Correa at #4 overall:

1) Correa’s competition isn’t as safe as they appear (Donaldson, Arenado, Rizzo, Machado, Stanton, Cabrera, McCutchen)

Let’s start with Josh Donaldson, Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rizzo, and Manny Machado. All of these guys have exactly one year of elite fantasy production, and only Donaldson managed to even crack the top 5 last season. Arenado finished 10th on Yahoo’s player rater, Machado finished 13th, and Rizzo 23rd. Their track records, which I guess is the reason they are considered safer than Correa, include multiple seasons of non-elite production for each player. It would not be the first time we attribute a “breakout” season to a player, when it ends up being closer to a career year in reality. Not to say I don’t think these guys had real breakouts, I do, but you can’t completely ignore the risk of regression, either.

Which brings us to Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Cabrera, and Andrew McCutchen. The risk factor for Stanton is obvious, injury. He has played in under 125 games in 3 of his 5 full major league seasons. As for Cabrera and McCutchen, they present the best arguments for picking a safe player over Correa, but their track records are starting to get a little too long, as some age related red flags popped up for both of them last season. Cabrera’s came in the form of injuries. He played in only 119 games in 2015 after being a pillar of health his entire career. McCutchen’s came in the form of stolen bases. He stole a career low 11 bags, on a career low 16 attempts last season. This coming off establishing career lows in both categories in 2014. I actually have Cabrera and McCutchen ranked slightly higher than the general consensus, so I do value the safety of a long track record, but the longer the track record gets, the more wear and tear risks come into play.

2) 5-category production

Picking true 5-category producers in the early rounds, rather than pure power guys, will give you the flexibility to seek value in the later rounds, no matter what form it comes in. You won’t have to pass on your favorite sleepers, or that stud that keeps falling, because you ignored speed, or average, earlier in the draft. Arenado, Cabrera, and Donaldson are not going to give you much in the way of steals. Rizzo and Stanton fall more into the “sneaky” steals category, and don’t think you can count on them for true 5-category production like a 20+ steal Correa will provide. McCutchen’s declining stolen base totals and attempts were discussed above. Machado is the most interesting case. If I were more confident in his ability to steal bases, he very well might be deserving of the #4 spot (at least in a Yahoo league where he has SS eligibility), but his past history, poor stolen base percentage, and average speed grades suggest his 20 steal season in 2015 might be hard to repeat.

The 5-category production argument is also the major reason why I wouldn’t draft Clayton Kershaw ahead of Correa, either. Through no fault of his own, Kershaw is limited to being a 4-category producer. I also believe in an overarching draft strategy of favoring hitters over pitchers. I’m always going to take one of the elite hitters in the first round of a draft, no matter how dominant a pitcher is. I have been in many leagues where I have seen a pitching heavy strategy work, so I don’t think drafting Kershaw #4 overall is disastrous, but it is just not a strategy I will employ.

3) The much maligned positional scarcity

Positional scarcity should not be a major factor when you are drafting, and that’s the point, Correa can stand at #4 on his own merits, without the positional scarcity handicap. But it also doesn’t mean we should completely ignore it. The entire SS position is riddled with risk, starting with the moving away from Coors, oft injured Troy Tulowitzi, right on through to all of the highly touted youngsters (Xander Bogaerts, Corey Seager, Francisco Lindor). Ending up with Evan Longoria as your 3B, or Mark Teixeira/Brandon Belt as your 1B, is far safer than guys like Marcus Semien or Ketel Marte, as much as I like them as sleeper candidates myself. So while it may feel like you are going “safe” by passing on Correa in the first round, you are really just reallocating some of that risk to later in the draft.

4) Carlos Correa is a beast

As for Correa himself, he put up a fantasy line of 52/22/68/.279/14 in 432 MLB PA last season. He then played even better in the post season, putting up a .903 OPS with 2 homers in 25 PA. This coming off a MiLB hitting line of 44/10/44/.335/18 in 246 PA split between Double-A and Triple-A. And for the cherry on top, he is triple-slashing .419/.513/.774, with a 1.287 OPS and 3 homers in 39 PA so far this Spring. There is not a single scouting report that doesn’t absolutely love this kid. It is seriously looking like the riskier bet is actually betting against Correa to keep on hitting. And that 5-category production from the shortstop position is too risky to pass up after the big 3 are off the board.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

How to Bet Day 2 of the Sweet 16: March Madness Survivor and ATS

Last night’s smooth sailing with all of the favorites winning by double figures might have just been the calm before the storm, because tonight’s slate of games looks much more treacherous. But there is no room for fear in sports gambling, so I’ll look to avenge my Duke loss and even up my ATS record, and more importantly, survive to fight another day in March Madness Survivor.

Survivor Pick: Gonzaga Bulldogs

My bracket buster pick coming out of the Midwest region has lived up to their billing, and with Michigan St. getting knocked off, the opportunity presents itself to use Gonzaga as a survivor pick as well. The tremendous play of their talented frontcourt duo, Sabonis and Wiltjer, plus the surprisingly good guard play they have received in the first two rounds, has only hardened my belief that Gonzaga was being underrated coming into the tournament. Their opponent, Syracuse, has also played very well in the first two rounds, but wins against Dayton and Middle Tennessee doesn’t exactly have me running to jump on the ‘Cuse bandwagon. I’m going to live or die with the Bulldogs tonight.

ATS Pick: North Carolina Tar Heels -5

It looks like the cream might finally be rising to the top in this “no clear favorite” tourney, as North Carolina has absolutely rolled so far. They come into this game vs. Indiana on a seven game winning streak, and a 9-0 record when playing games on a neutral court this season. I don’t love giving the 5 points, as Indiana is a good team that is not just going to lie down, but I’ll stick with my Tobacco road picks, and hope the luck evens out for me with the Tar Heels tonight.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)