Posted on by Michael Halpern

Re-Ranking the Graduates from My Off-Season Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings: 21-30

It is graduation day here at Imaginary Brick Wall, and not a moment too soon, as 2017 Top 100 season is right around the corner. I thought about getting a celebrity to give the inaugural commencement speech, but then I remembered I didn’t know any. Sorry guys, and six girl readers (yes, I have one more girl reader than Razzball). 30 prospects graduated from my off-season 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings, and before I let go of them for good, let’s celebrate by ranking them one last time for Dynasty Leagues:

*Off-Season top 100 rank in parenthesis

Click here for 1-10
Click here for 11-20

21) Raul Mondesi Jr. (#56) KC, SS/2B – Sneakily put together the strongest offensive season in his career in the minor leagues, slashing .268/.322/.469, with 7 homers, 24 steals, and a 60/17 K/BB in 52 games, but his eye sore of an MLB triple-slash (.185/.231/.281) has seriously overshadowed that. KC has thrown him into the deep end from day one of his professional career, so considering the raw talent and bloodlines, I’m more inclined to be encouraged by the step forward in the minors than discouraged by his MLB debut.

22) Dylan Bundy (#88) BAL, RHP – The first thing I did when I got into this 30 team Dynasty League that my Prospector in Crime, Ralph Lifshitz, roped me into was trade 4 cheap years of Bundy for Derek Fisher, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Pedro Payano. The AL East and Camden Yards is enough of a challenge to overcome without worrying about Bundy’s injury risk on top of it. Plus, in the 14 games he started last season he put up a pitching line of 4.52/1.30/72 in 71.2 IP, which certainly flashed his considerable upside, but also didn’t exactly make him untouchable on my roster. I should add that only 4 of the 12 categories are impacted by starting pitchers in this league, giving me even more incentive to move him.

23) Jon Gray (#100) COL, RHP – Coors Field: Where Aces Go To Be 4th Starters

24) Jose Berrios (#12) MIN, RHP – Disastrous MLB debut had everyone scratching their heads. There is struggling, and then there is 8.02 ERA in 14 starts struggling. Even his trademark control vanished as he walked 5.4 batters per nine innings, although, I don’t blame him for not wanting to throw the ball over the plate after giving up 11.4 hits and 1.9 homers per nine innings too. Probably nothing else you can really do but hold him at this point. His trade value is shot, and he is a big enough name that he will probably still be valued too high in a buy low scenario.

25) Archie Bradley (#83) ARI, RHP – 9.1 K/9 in 141.2 IP is his only saving grace, because the other numbers aren’t pretty. I’m a sucker for strikeout upside in fantasy, so he isn’t the worst guy to have hanging around the bottom of your roster in Dynasty Leagues.

26) Mallex Smith (#91) ATL, OF – MLB debut didn’t really move the needle much in either direction. Maintaining his solid plate approach in the majors was good to see, but as expected, his batting average plummeted without the aid of weak minor league defenders. If he can gain some strength and hit the ball with a little more authority, there is a long career as a speedy leadoff man ahead of him.

27) Jake Thompson (#80) PHI, RHP – These next three pitchers just don’t do it for me. I was relatively low on them coming into the year, and probably even lower on them now. They all have plenty of talent, so as long as they stay healthy and maintain their stuff a breakout will always be possible.

28) Aaron Blair (#81) ATL, RHP – Look up one inch.

29) Braden Shipley (#84) ARI, RHP – Look up two inches.

30) John Lamb (#40) TB, LHP – Woof. I blame the secret back surgery he had last off-season that wasn’t disclosed until spring training, but with his littered injury history to begin with, I can only blame myself.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Re-Ranking the Graduates from My Off-Season Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings: 11-20

It is graduation day here at Imaginary Brick Wall, and not a moment too soon, as 2017 Top 100 season is right around the corner. I thought about getting a celebrity to give the inaugural commencement speech, but then I remembered I didn’t know any. Sorry guys, and six girl readers (yes, I have one more girl reader than Razzball). 30 prospects graduated from my off-season 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings, and before I let go of them for good, let’s celebrate by ranking them one last time for Dynasty Leagues:

*Off-Season top 100 rank in parenthesis

Click here for 1-10

11) Willson Contreras (#52) CHC, C – I would rank Contreras higher than Mazara and Taillon depending on my team needs. The constant improvements he has made over the past two seasons have been astounding, and it culminated with him rolling through MLB pitching in August and September, slashing .306/.370/.545 with 7 homers in his final 38 regular season games. I wouldn’t even be all that surprised if he outproduced Sanchez next year.

12) Tim Anderson (#22) CHW, SS – Anderson is spearheading Chicago’s rebuilding effort as he impressed in his MLB debut by slashing .283/.306/.432, with 9 homers, 10 steals, and a 117/13 K/BB in 99 games. The plate discipline numbers are an obvious red flag, but there is more than one way to skin a cat, and Anderson skins his cats by just hacking away. It has worked for him so far, and if he can even moderately improve on those numbers, this ranking will look too low by next season.

13) Steven Matz (#10) NYM, LHP – Matz underwent arthroscopic surgery this off-season to remove a large bone spur from his pitching elbow, which should also clear up the shoulder impingement that was bothering him all year and required a platelet plasma injection of its own. He should be fine now guys. All better.

14) Blake Snell (#13) TB, LHP – Snell did about exactly what was expected of him in the majors this year, racking up strikeouts (9.9 K/9), walks (5.2 BB/9), and possessing the raw ability to get major leaguers out while still learning on the job (3.54 ERA, 1.62 WHIP). We’ve seen big, talented lefties with similar profiles blow up into top of the rotation starters enough of the time for me to stay the course with Snell.

15) Joey Gallo (#17) TEX, 1B/3B/OF – It feels like Gallo belongs more on upcoming top 100 lists than a list of graduates, but he passed the unofficial prospect limit by 3 at-bats. We all know about the bat speed, raw power, and strikeouts by now, so the only questions that remain are centered on opportunity and position.

16) Orlando Arcia (#27) MIL, SS – Arcia was always a better real life than fantasy prospect, but 10+ homers, 20+ steals, and a good average is still a very realistic outcome for him. His plus defense probably pushed him to the majors before his bat was ready, as he slashed .219/.273/.358, with 4 homers, 8 steals, and a 47/15 K/BB in 55 games, but you could see the underlying skills start to bud.

17) Max Kepler (#29) MIN, OF – Like Mazara, it was a tale of two halves for Kepler. He drilled 13 homers in his first two months in the majors, and then tanked hard in the last 48 games of the season, slashing .203/.266/.273 with 2 homers and a 45/15 K/BB. His elite minor league contact numbers also escaped him, striking out 20.8% of the time. There isn’t one fantasy category you can really count on with Kepler, but his strong combination of skills makes him an enticing long term piece.

18) Jose Peraza (#44) CIN, SS/2B/OF – Doesn’t have a starting spot, but is basically the top backup for every position on the field, so he should still see regular at-bats. He proved last year that his high minor league averages will translate to the majors by hitting .324 in 72 games, but he also found stealing bases a bit more difficult since his days of stealing 60+ in A-Ball, getting caught 10 times in 31 attempts.

19) Sean Manaea (#45) OAK, LHP – Can I buy a vowel, amirite? And while you’re at it, you should probably buy some shares of Manaea for your fantasy teams too. The man they call “Baby Giraffe” had a solid MLB debut with a pitching line of 3.86/1.19/124 in 144.2 IP, and more importantly, put some injury concerns behind him by reaching a career high of 166.1 innings pitched.

20) Michael Fulmer (#82) DET, RHP – His 3.76 FIP and 3.95 xFIP are likely more representative of his true talent level than his 3.06 ERA. That’s the kind of hard hitting sabermetric analysis you can’t find anywhere else.

Click here for 21-30

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Re-Ranking the Graduates from My 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings: 1-10

It is graduation day here at Imaginary Brick Wall, and not a moment too soon, as 2017 Top 100 season is right around the corner. I thought about getting a celebrity to give the inaugural commencement speech, but then I remembered I didn’t know any. Sorry guys, and six girl readers (yes, I have one more girl reader than Razzball). 30 prospects graduated from my off-season 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings, and before I let go of them for good, let’s celebrate by ranking them one last time for Dynasty Leagues:

*Off-Season top 100 rank in parenthesis

1) Corey Seager (#1) LAD, SS – Nailed it.

2) Trea Turner (#23) WASH, SS/OF – Or maybe not. Turner has a legitimate case to be #1 on this list as his unexpected power surge in the majors puts his upside firmly ahead of Seager’s. Seager proved it over the course of the entire season, though, and his upside is nothing to sneeze at. Because I don’t know about you, but when I’m unimpressed by something, I sneeze at it, and I wouldn’t dare sneeze at Seager’s upside.

3) Trevor Story (#30) COL, SS – Story wasn’t even on almost any other Top 100 list, but ranking him 30th still ended up being too low. Everyone remembers his blazing start to the season, but he might have actually been better in his final two months before a thumb injury ended his year, slashing .286/.368/.571 with 13 homers, 5 steals, and a 54/18 K/BB in 48 games.

4) Gary Sanchez (#31) NYY, C – Wrote about Sanchez last week in my 2017 Top 10 New York Yankees Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings.

5) Alex Bregman (#26) HOU, 3B/SS – Packed on 20 pounds of muscle last off-season and immediately put it to good use by smashing through his supposed “power ceiling.” He lost some speed along the way, and his elite minor league contact numbers took a dive in the majors, but I don’t think anyone is complaining. He also happens to be a fan of one of my favorite television shows, Impractical Jokers, and here is the twitter photo with “Murr” to prove it.

6) David Dahl (#47) COL, OF – An injury riddled 2015 led me to underrate Dahl coming into the season. He not only stayed healthy this year, but he fully tapped into his raw power too. He still has some contact issues, so I would expect some regression to the .315 batting average he put up in the majors (.404 BABIP), but Coors Field mixed with his power/speed combo puts his upside in the elite category.

7) Byron Buxton (#2) MIN, OF – I actually still like Buxton a lot, but it is hard to justify ranking him ahead of the very talented prospects who have done nothing but destroy Major League pitching. Buxton did manage to give everyone a taste of what could be in store for next year, slashing .287/.357/.653 with 9 homers in 29 games during his September call-up.

8) Julio Urias (#7) LAD, LHP – I just don’t think I could part with any of those elite young bats in fantasy for a still unproven pitcher, even one as good as Urias. It isn’t an easy decision, because he is about as good as they come, flashing his upside as a 19/20-year-old in the majors by putting up a pitching line of 3.39/1.45/84 in 77 IP.

9) Nomar Mazara (#19) TEX, OF – After generating a lot of buzz with his awesome first two months of the season, Mazara dropped off considerably in the final four, OPS’ing .681, .701, .701, .706, respectively. It’s a solid debut for a 21-year-old no matter how you slice it, but I’m just not sure I’m ready to bet on his superstar ceiling. I’d be more comfortable banking on very good and consistent, which is not too shabby.

10) Jameson Taillon (#86) PIT, RHP – Two full years on the sidelines following Tommy John surgery had Taillon ranked with a group of other high upside, injury risk pitchers like Hunter Harvey, Dylan Bundy, and Erick Fedde. Three of the four took major steps forward this year (Harvey underwent Tommy John surgery), with Taillon being the best of the bunch. His strikeout numbers were modest at 7.4 K/9 in the majors, but he showed an advanced feel for the art of pitching, developing his two-seam fastball into a legitimate weapon mid-season, and displayed excellent control with a 1.5 BB/9. His mid-90’s 4-seamer also leaves plenty of strikeout upside.

Click here for 11-20
Click here for 21-30

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Razzball Prospect Podcast: Milwaukee Brewers Prospects w/ JB Gilpin

Ralph Lifshitz and I go Groundhog Day on you and give you take two of the Razzball Prospect Podcast: Milwaukee Brewers Prospects w/ JB Gilpin. We did this almost exact podcast about 4 months ago, but I guess we are going to keep doing it until we finally get it right. On this one we talk jelly donuts, microbrews, robot umps, and of course, tons of Brewers prospects.

Click here for the Razzball Prospect Podcast: Milwaukee Brewers Prospects w/ JB Gilpin

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2017 Top 10 New York Yankees Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings

Imaginary Brick Wall was one of the only publications to have Gary Sanchez ranked #1 overall in the New York Yankees farm system coming into 2016. When I say “Imaginary Brick Wall,” of course, I mean me. And when I say “publication,” I mean this here blog. I’m just trying to class this joint up a little bit. Baseball America, Fangraphs, and MLB.com all had Jorge Mateo #1. Baseball Prospectus, ESPN, and Prospect361 went with Aaron Judge. I only mention those other websites due to how much I respect them, not to denigrate them. But nanny nanny poo poo … I beat them.  Let’s give them another shot to take the crown this year, as I’m going to make this New York Yankees prospect ranking an annual thing. Here is the 2017 Top 10 New York Yankees Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings:

1) Aaron Judge OF – The 44% K rate in his MLB debut have people jumping ship faster than Jack and Rose did from the Titanic. Incidentally, Judge is about the size of the Titanic, and in fairness to the ones jumping ship, that scary K rate just might be the tip of the iceberg. I guess in this analogy that makes me the weird violinist who is pretending all is well. But Judge struggled in his promotion to Triple-A in 2015 too, before slashing .270/.366/.489 with 19 homers and a 98/47 K/BB in 93 games there this season. He has shown an ability to make adjustments against more advanced pitching. And you have to remember that all of New York’s minor league affiliates are pitcher’s parks in pitcher’s leagues. Judge had the 4th highest OPS in the entire International League. He also displayed his monster raw power, exit velocity, and plate discipline in the Majors even with the strikeouts, and should have the RF job locked up coming out of Spring Training. I ranked Judge 25th in my End of Season Top 35 Fantasy Prospect Rankings.

2) Clint Frazier OF – Frazier is one Brett Gardner/Jacoby Ellsbury trade away from joining Judge in the Yankees corner outfield for years to come. He probably needs more work at Triple-A anyway, as he put up a .657 OPS with a 36/7 K/BB in his 30 game end of season promotion there. The elite bat speed is his number one tool on the field. The elite red hair is his number one tool off it. I ranked Frazier 26th in my End of Season Top 35 Prospect Rankings.

3) Gleyber Torres SS – Torres will likely be the Yankees #1 ranked prospect in most of those aforementioned publications. His performance in the Arizona Fall League had scouts absolutely buzzing, as he slashed a ridiculous .403/.513/.645 with 3 homers and 4 steals in 18 games. While he is not projected to hit for monster power or rack up crazy steal totals, he should be a legitimate five category producer who can stick at shortstop. Whether he does stick at shortstop with Didi in town remains to be seen. I ranked Torres 34th in my End of Season Top 35 Fantasy Prospect Rankings.

4) Jorge Mateo SS/2B – It was not a good year for Mateo. He saw his numbers take a dip at High-A and was suspended 2 weeks for whining about not being called up to Double-A when he wanted to be called up. Even his stolen bases dropped from 82 in 2015 to 36 this season, and barring a trade, it is looking less and less likely that Mateo will stick at shortstop. Having said that, his raw talent and plus, plus speed are still there, so it is more likely this season was just a bump in the road rather than a representation of his true talent level. Prime Projection: 86/12/60/.269/.321/.396/33
ETA: Mid-season 2018. What team and position is anyone’s guess.

5) Justus Sheffield LHP – I think Sheffield has gotten a little overshadowed by Frazier, but he may end up being the real prize from that Andrew Miller trade, especially in real life. He pitched solid all year in High-A as a true 20-year-old with a 3.19 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 8.9 K/9. He then closed his year out in impressive fashion by going 4 IP, 2 Hits, 0 ER, 3 BB, 9 K against Double-A Reading in their wind tunnel of a stadium, helping to hold their impressive middle of the order (Alfaro, Cozens, Hoskins) to a 2 for 11 day. There is video of that entire start if you are interested. Prime Projection: 3.48/1.23/184 in 188 IP
ETA: Mid-season 2018. Wouldn’t be crazy to see him get a cup of coffee in September this year.

6) Blake Rutherford OF – I would like to see more age appropriate production before fully jumping on the Rutherford bandwagon for fantasy. The traditional scouts seem to be in love with the kid, so maybe I’m just being too conservative. I ranked Rutherford 22nd on my Top 40 Dynasty First Year Player Draft Rankings.

7) James Kaprielian RHP – Kaprielian’s velocity ticked up in pro ball after being drafted 16th overall in the 2015 draft and then he promptly got injured. The extra velocity seemed to turn him into an absolute beast, though, as he racked up the strikeouts when he did manage to take the mound. His injury risk and lack of an extended professional resume is concerning, but the pitch repertoire of a mid-90’s fastball, wipeout slider, slow curve, and changeup from a polished college starter is hard to pass up. Prime Projection: 3.59/1.25/167 in 174 IP
ETA: Could see a late season call up this year, but more likely to get his first extended action in 2018.

8) Dustin Fowler OF – Fowler might be one of the more underrated power/speed combo prospects going right now. As a 21-year-old in Double-A he put up a .281/.311/.458 triple-slash with 12 homers, 30 doubles, 15 triples, and 25 steals in 132 games. He has excellent raw tools and a smooth lefty swing that is geared for both average and power. He walked only 3.8% of the time, so there is still work to do, but he made contact at a high clip too (15% K%). I’m tempted to rank Fowler higher, and I may when I come out with my Top 100 this off-season. Prime Projection: 73/17/70/.270/.306/.420/18
ETA: 2018. Yanks are stacked in the outfield right now so it is really impossible to know how it is all going to shake out. His ability to stick in CF will also play a big role.

9) Dillon Tate RHP – Tate dominated in his first two starts of the season before suffering a hamstring injury. When he returned, his stuff just wasn’t the same and he got smacked around the rest of the way. The Yanks still took a chance on him in the Carlos Beltran trade, and it looks like it might pay off as he was back to hitting mid-90’s with a wipeout slider in the Arizona Fall League. He has a long way to go to recover the prospect shine that made him the 4th overall pick in the 2015 draft, but I wouldn’t count him out yet. Prime Projection: 3.72/1.27/165 in 182 IP
ETA: See James Kaprielian

10) Miguel Andujar 3B – Andujar has been on the radar of hardcore Yankees prospect fans since 2011 when he was a highly touted international signing. He finally broke out a bit this year at High-A where he slashed .283/.343/.474 with 10 homers and a 30/18 K/BB in 58 games. He struggled in his promotion to Double-A, but still more or less maintained his underlying hitting skills. I think there is a decent chance the Yanks use him as trade bait in the next couple years. Prime Projection: 68/19/74/.277/.330/.434/5
ETA: 2018

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Razzball Prospect Podcast: Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Angels, Miami Marlins (and lots of alcohol)

Ralph Lifshitz and I got you three hot steaming pieces of coal for Christmas … and for Hanukkah, Kwanzaa, and Festivis too. Coal for everyone. Blame the timing, or blame Ralph, but we lumped the three worst systems in baseball together and it just so happened to land on this weekend. We attempted to overcompensate by getting real loose with this one.

Click here for the Razzball Prospect Podcast: Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Angels, Miami Marlins (and lots of alcohol)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Chris Iriart, 2017 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Sleeper

With an increasing number of eyeballs focused on finding fantasy baseball prospect sleepers, it can be hard staying ahead of your competition in Dynasty Leagues, but it seems I have stumbled upon a niche underrated asset class of prospects – those who took 93 MPH fastballs to the face in June. If this was Razzball, I would make a “balls to the face” joke here, but it isn’t, so I won’t. I have already gushed about Chase Vallot in a Breakout/Sleeper post back on June 1, and then again in a Top 10 Breakout Ranking a few weeks later. Here is the picture of the aftermath of that 93 MPH fastball to the face to jog your memory. Unfortunately for Chris Iriart, 1B, Oakland Athletics, he now joins Vallot in this ill-fated group.

On June 2, 12 days before Vallot took one to the dome, Iriart met the same fate. He posted an eerily similar twitter picture and caption to prove it. The injury came at an inopportune time (as if there is ever an opportune time to get hit in the face), as Iriart was just starting to get comfortable in pro ball. In May, he slashed .253/.355/.484 with 5 homers and a 29/13 K/BB in 28 games at Single-A. This was coming off a cold start to the season and a poor pro debut in 2015 as a 12th round pick. The injury could have easily derailed his season, but after sitting out a few weeks and shaking off the rust in July, he went on an absolute tear to end the year. He slashed .275/.378/.624 with 10 homers and a 31/14 K/BB in his final 30 games, which included a 16-game promotion at High-A. He is not one of these old for their level guys, either, as he played the entire season at 21 years old, which is age appropriate for A-Ball.

What makes the mid-season breakout even more exciting is that it did not come completely out of left field. Iriart was an absolute masher in college, first destroying the Orange Empire Conference (not a joke) his Sophomore year, before transferring into Division 1, American Athletic Conference, without so much as a hiccup, slashing .302/.415/.573 with 15 homers and a 69/28 K/BB in 63 games his Junior year. He has plus raw power, plus bat speed, and a very direct path to the ball swing. All of the ingredients are there. Having an October birthday, he was also one of the youngest players in his draft class, so it is understandable that he would struggle in his first taste of pro ball more than players who are 6 months to a year older than him (not even taking into account Seniors).

The risks here are mostly obvious. At 6’2’’, 230 pounds he is big bodied, 1B only prospect without any projection remaining. He struck out 26.6% of the time this year, although he paired that with a decent 9.6% walk rate, and both of those numbers improved in his late season High-A cameo. He will also be headed to the spacious Oakland Coliseum, and Oakland has a number of similar prospects/young players ahead of him, like Ryon Healy, Matt Chapman, Renato Nunez, and Matt Olson.

Iriart is being hyped just about nowhere other than the deepest of Oakland A’s fan blogs, but he deserves more national attention. He will get it if he continues to hit well next season, which is why now is the time to buy in super low. I will give him a prime projection of 69/23/80/.259/.319/.449/1 with room for much more if he can cut down on his strikeouts.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Razzball Prospect Podcast: Los Angeles Dodgers

On this week’s Razzball Prospect Podcast, I learned that Ralph Lifshitz has a black cat that his wife named “Stabby” (or so I thought), that the flu is the only thing that could slow down Razzball’s J-FOH, and that Ralph sees shades of Ken Griffey Jr. in Clay Bellinger’s extreme uppercut lefty swing.

Click here for the Razzball Prospect Podcast: Los Angeles Dodgers

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

MLB Broke Its Own Strikeout Record … Again

Strikeouts have reached an all-time high in Major League Baseball for an amazing 9th straight season. It was not even limited to the playing field, the players took a big swing and a miss on the new CBA too (I kid, I kid). This was not exactly hard to see coming. Here is what I wrote in my Top 25 Starting Pitcher Rankings back in March:

“Strikeouts have absolutely exploded around baseball. MLB averaged 7.8 K/9 in 2015, setting a new all-time record. That broke the previous record of 7.7 K/9 set in 2014, which broke the previous record of 7.6 K/9 set in 2013. In fact, MLB has broken its own all-time K/9 and total strikeout record every season since 2008. You can find those all-time stats here. It’s actually pretty cool to look at. And the 2016 top 25 starting pitchers have all contributed more than their fair share into ushering in this new era of the strikeout. Will we see 7.9 K/9 in 2016?”

We did not see 7.9 K/9 in 2016. It rocketed straight through that to 8.1 K/9. Assuming you watched every at-bat of every game, like any good fan should, you saw 1,536 more strikeouts than you did in 2015. There was a total of 38,982 strikeouts this season. For comparisons sake, there were 175 strikeouts (0.7 K/9) in 1871, 20,212 strikeouts (4.8 K/9) in 1980, and 30,644 strikeouts (6.4 K/9) in 2005.

Coinciding with the spike in strikeouts, and probably the main reason for it, average fastball velocity has risen every year since 2008, as well, going from 90.9 MPH to an all-time high of 92.6 MPH in 2016. Higher velocity leads to more strikeouts which should lead to less offense. This mostly held true during the recent strikeout boom, with runs per game reaching lows in 2014 that we have not seen since the pre-steroid era. But 2016 was the year hitters started to fight fire with fire. They ripped the second most homeruns in baseball history, trailing only the steroid infused 2000 season by 83 homers, or .01 per game. Maybe batters started to realize that they better do damage when they do actually make contact. That means hitting the ball harder and in the air. Or maybe MLB executives took matters into their own hands, and juiced the balls. Either way, baseball has finally proven the old adage, “the harder they come in, the farther they go out.”

The only thing that could stop this current strikeout epidemic, or even hope to contain it, are injuries. Higher pitch velocities have been loosely linked to a greater chance of needing Tommy John surgery. Some pitchers like Masahiro Tanaka, who have already had an elbow scare, have transitioned into throwing their sinking 2-seamer more than their 4-seamer, sacrificing velocity for movement. Other than that, there does not seem to be an end in sight to this strikeout surge, especially with starters not being allowed to see a lineup a 3rd time through and the continued rise of bullpen specialization.

We are firmly entrenched in the era of the K, but luckily for fans of offense, hitters have started to adjust. After over 100 years of baseball, the game is being whittled down to its two most efficient outcomes, the strikeout and the homer. The only question left is, will we ever see 9.0 K/9?

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Razzball Prospect Podcast: Hot Stove and Houston Astros

Ralph Lifshitz and I recorded a marathon session (which turned out to be not that much longer than our usual podcasts, ha) where we bullshit about all of the recent hot stove trades and rundown the Houston Astros beast of a system, who might be the biggest prospect teases going right now. They are stacked with talent, but seem intent on acquiring every 30+ (almost 40+ in Beltran’s case) veteran that they can get their hands on. Here is to hoping they start dealing some of these guys away for pitching.

Click here for the Razzball Prospect Podcast: Hot Stove and Houston Astros

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)