Times Square drops the Ball to ring in the New Year, and here at Imaginary Brick Wall, our tradition is to drop the Shortstop Rankings! The full list will be dropped at exactly 12:00 AM, January 1st … no, just kidding, it will get dropped mostly normally throughout the week. The full Top 161 is up now. Top 9 free on the Brick Wall below. The full Top 130+ FYPD Ranks with a Strategy & Target Guide is coming next week. Catcher, 1B, 2B, and 3B Rankings are already completed on the Patreon. But first, it’s all about the SS. Here is the 2026 Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings: Top 161 Shortstops (Patreon):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 132 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2026 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
–2026 DEEP POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 80 C–Top 91 1B–Top 97 2B–Top 101 3B–Top 161 SS
-TOP 130+ 2026 FYPD RANKS + STRATEGY & TARGET GUIDE (coming next week)
–END OF SEASON 2025 TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
–END OF SEASON 2025 TOP 325 PROSPECTS RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: END OF SEASON MAILBAG!
–SPREADSHEETS
–OFF-SEASON CONTENT: Dynasty Team Reports (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy of the Day), Deep Positional Rankings, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Position by Position Targets, 2026 & Prime/Peak Projections, Top 1,000+ Dynasty Rankings, Top 500+ Prospects Rankings, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks + much more

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon (free ones listed in parenthesis)

Arizona Diamondbacks—Atlanta Braves—Baltimore Orioles—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago Cubs (free)—Cincinnati Reds (free)—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Yankees (free)—Pittsburgh Pirates (free)—Sacramento Athletics—Seattle Mariners—St. Louis Cardinals (free)—Tampa Bay Rays—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

1) Bobby Witt Jr. – KCR, SS, 26.10 – Witt hit only 23 homers in 157 games, and while I want to completely hand wave it away as just a down power season, I don’t think we can completely dismiss it. Kauffman Stadium is one of the very worst ballparks for homers, and I definitely think it is playing a big role in subduing Witt’s homer totals. But even looking at his expected homer totals in other ballparks, they all look like they hovered/averaged out to the mid 20’s area. His 12.5% Barrel% is good, but it’s not like off the charts good. His 34.9% Pull% is below average and pretty damn low for a power hitter. He hit 32 and 30 homers the two previous years, so I’m not saying at all that this is now his true talent level, but I feel like the hope was for Witt to explode into like a 30-40+ home run perennial type bat, and the numbers just aren’t saying that is who he is. The only other quibble is that the plate approach is still below average with a 7.1% BB% and 30.7% Chase%. The hope was that he would have improved on that by now too. I only bring up the negatives because they are more interesting to me. We all know Witt is an elite dynasty asset, and I have him ranked 3rd overall for a reason. He smokes the ball with a 93.3 MPH EV and a 48.5% Hard Hit%, both of which are career highs. He lifts it with a 15.2 degree launch, he makes tons of contact with a 18.2% K%, and he’s one of the fastest men in baseball with a 30.2 ft/sec sprint. I love him. He’s an untouchable if I own him. But I do think it’s worth mentioning the kinks in the armor. – 2026 Projection: 109/31/101/.306/.367/.518/36

2) Elly De La Cruz – CIN, SS, 24.3 – Elly’s evaluation is kinda all over the place. I try my best to present coherent thoughts/analysis/arguments when writing these blurbs, but Elly’s 2025 is making that as hard as possible. You can say one of the major positives of his season was the major improvement to his K% (25.9% vs. 31.3% in 2024), but his still risky whiff% wasn’t nearly as improved (31.7% vs. 33.4%), and his BA tanked in the 2nd half with a .221 BA and 28.9% K% in his final 52 games. So it’s hard to just say there is now no hit tool risk with him. His 22 homers and 37 steals are awesome, but both numbers were worse than what he did in 2024 (25/67). The 7.6 degree launch and 9.8% Air Pull% both regressed from 2024 too. He finished 23rd overall on the Razzball Player Rater, which is great, but again, his 2nd half slide really puts a damper on that (.854 OPS pre break vs. .666 post break). It’s really easy to start getting lost in the weeds here, so I feel the best thing to do is pull out as far as possible to not lose the forest through the trees. And the forest is telling us this is an insanely talented young kid who might not be perfectly refined quite yet, and might not be completely without risk, but is still on that path to put up some truly special seasons. He was just 23 years old last year. I’m not letting the poor 2nd half and things to nitpick throw me. This is an elite dynasty asset whose best years are ahead of him. – 2026 Projection: 107/27/89/.262/.338/.473/40

3) Gunnar Henderson – BAL, SS, 24.9 – Gunnar hit only 17 homers in 154 games. Monster power hitters really don’t have seasons like that. Like ever. Power can fluctuate year to year for sure, but dipping to only 17 is not normal. And it’s not like it was the result of some extended cold stretch. He never hit more than 4 in a month and he hit only 1 in September. The barely above average 8.5% Barrel% is also not saying this was some massively unlucky aberration. And we already know he’s not a big lift and pull guy with a 9.5 degree launch and 15.3% Air Pull%. I’m not saying this is now who he is at all, but I think it does say the 37 homers he hit in 2024 isn’t who he is either. He’s probably more of a 25+ guy who will hit 30+ when things go right, similar to Tatis and Julio. You can also blame the intercoastal strain that put him on the IL to start the season. It just felt like he started the year behind the 8 ball and could never catch up. His 12.3% HR/FB% was way off from his career norms (18.8%), so you have to assume some positive regression, and he crushes the ball with a 92.1 MPH EV, a 49.2% Hard Hit%, and a 75.4 MPH swing, so there is just no way a power bounce back isn’t coming. And the big silver lining to his down year was that he stole 30 bags. A power bounce back to 25+ will put him right in line with a Tatis and Julio like projected stat line. – 2026 Projection: 101/28/86/.278/.359/.481/25

4) Zach Neto – LAA, SS, 25.2 – I feel like nobody wants to admit that Neto is a near elite dynasty asset. Actually, I feel like nobody really wanted to bet on this kid like I have since before he was drafted. I ranked him 3rd overall in his FYPD class, far above consensus, and then I’ve kept being the high man on him since. And I guess I’ll keep being the high man on him after his power explosion in 2025. He came back from shoulder surgery, and the medical community has obviously perfected this surgery of late, because everyone seems to come back with a super charged shoulder. His EV jumped 2.5 MPH to 91.5 MPH, his Hard Hit jumped 7.8 points to 46.6%, and his Barrel% jumped 7.6 points to 14%. It led to a career high 26 homers in just 128 games. He also never lifted and pulled more with a 17.5 degree launch and 24% Air Pull%. This is an easy 30 homer bat. He also stole 26 bags, and while he got caught 9 times, he was improving as the season went along with 13 steals in 15 attempts in his final 62 games. He’s going to keep on running, making him a reasonable bet for a perennial 30/30 bat. The 26.9/6.0 K%/BB% isn’t great, but neither the 30.1% Chase% or 29.1% whiff% is in the true danger zone, and he’s displayed a good feel to hit throughout this entire career. I’m not too worried about the hit tool tanking him. I know you don’t want to admit it, but this is what a near elite dynasty asset looks like. – 2026 Projection: 91/30/86/.255/.323/.478/30

5) Konnor Griffin – PIT, SS/OF, 19.11 – I felt the Griffin explosion in my gut last off-season. The Baseball Gods were speaking to me, and I listened, predicting he would explode into elite prospect status in my Predicting the Top 50 2026 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings last off-season, ranking him 4th overall and writing, “Griffin will have the explosion that everyone who passed on him in first year player drafts feared he would have. The hit tool concerns will be overblown as he maintains an under 25% K% at Single-A, and the power/speed combo will shine with 16 homers and 48 steals in 102 games. He’ll basically be the 2026 version of the 2025 version of Sebastian Walcott. Off the charts tools and a better than expected hit tool.” … and then he went out and surpassed even those expectations, slashing .333/.415/.527 with 21 homers, 65 steals, and a 21.7/8.9 K%/BB% in 122 games. He finished the season at Double-A where he actually put up his best wRC+ of any level with a 175 wRC+ in 21 games. Remember when everyone was making excuses for the 19 year old Walcott at Double-A all year for his mediocre slash? Well, Griffin came in and just busted that whole thing up, showing a 19 year old can most certainly dominate the level. Not only did I forsee the rise in the off-season, but I got blow back after ranking him 1st overall on the Prospect Rankings in early June before he even got the call to High-A. I then made a final plea in my August Dynasty Rankings before he got the call to Double-A, shooting him up to 29th overall and writing, “This is my final plea to you. DO NOT TRADE GRIFFIN UNDER ANY SCENARIO. I don’t even think Roman Anthony can touch his upside. Just don’t trade him, please.” And then after what he did at Double-A, there is no more room for debate. He’s lightning fast, he crushes the ball with a 91.2 MPH EV and 49% Hard Hit%, and the hit tool was better than expected. This is not only the #1 prospect in baseball, but he’s already a nearly elite dynasty asset for me. – 2026 Projection: 28/9/35/.247/.318/.433/17 Prime Projection: 118/32/111/.279/.351/.523/44

6) Francisco Lindor – NYM, SS, 32.4 – Trying to predict which players are going to defeat Father Time, or at least give them a great fight, is a nearly impossible task. We can prefer certain archetypes over others, like being wary of speed first types, but really, we can’t perfectly predict whose bodies will hold up and whose will start to decline. I say that because I’ve been sitting here thinking long and hard about how much I want to bet on Lindor deep into his 30’s, and I’m not sure there is something to really hold onto that makes me want to bet big on it. He’s not a big bat speed guy (below average 71 MPH swing), he’s not a burner (slightly below average 27.4 ft/sec sprint), and he’s not a Barrel machine with a 8.8% Barrel%. The contact rates, approach and hard hit are all good, but they aren’t in the elite area where there is a huge amount of leeway for decline. It seems to me he fits more into the potentially gentle decline category, rather than the guy who keeps on being truly elite deep into his 30’s. But as I started this blurb, it feels foolish to think I can actually predict how a player will decline. Too much goes into it. And of course, that is just looking ahead. Lindor is only going to be 32 years old next year and there is no reason he shouldn’t have his 4th straight basically 30/30 season in 2026. But I think at 32 we have to start thinking about what the decline will look like, and I’m not sure I want to bet on him still being elite in his mid 30’s. He should still be good though. – 2026 Projection: 110/31/90/.269/.342/.473/30

7) Kevin McGonigle – DET, SS/2B, 21.8 – You know I’m not shy to take a victory lap when I hit on a player that everyone else (or almost everyone else) was low on, so I also have to take my lashes when I miss on a player that everyone else but me was super high on. Truth of the matter is, when you rank with a mind of your own, which I pride myself on and preach to others (and preach to you as dynasty owners too), you are going to end up looking like a genius on your unique hits, and a moron on your unique misses, when in reality, you are probably not a genius or a moron. You are just trying to block out the noise and give a raw, unfiltered opinion. My favorite rankings, and the ones I find most valuable, are the ones that aren’t mostly the same as the consensus/general perception, and are also backed up by solid reasoning and analysis, whether you agree or disagree with the ranking. So with that as the backdrop, Kevin McGonigle is who I consider my biggest miss in 2025. I had him ranked 54th overall, which I mean, is a pretty good ranking in general, and I called him a souped up Steven Kwan, which is really still an accurate “comp,” but the vast majority of other spots had him in the Top 25 range at least, or higher. I’m generally lower on hit tool first guys for fantasy (I was also lower on Angel Genoa and Starlyn Caba, both of whom took steps back in 2025), but when a hit tool first guy hits his ceiling, it looks exactly like what McGonigle just did. He slashed .305/.408/.583 with 19 homers, 10 steals, and a 11.6/14.9 K%/BB% in 99 games at High-A and Double-A. He’s not a big guy at 5’10”, but he can lift and pull, and he hits it very hard with legit plus raw power potential. He’s less a souped up Steven Kwan, and more in the mold of Mookie Betts and Jose Ramirez, if you want to dream on his tippy top ceiling. He wasn’t good on the bases this year (10 for 17), and he’s not a true burner, but he was much better last year (22 for 24), so I would would expect a bounce back in 2026 there. You won’t hear me doubting him ever again. Konnor Griffin is my top dog, but McGonigle is my #2 prospect in baseball, and he might have a real shot to break camp with the team. – 2026 Projection: 63/15/54/.268/.337/.434/13 Prime Projection: 111/24/91/.290/.370/.485/20

8) CJ Abrams – WSH, SS, 25.6 – James Wood had the scariest 2nd half in baseball. MacKenzie Gore had the most disappointing 2nd half in baseball for pitchers. And then there is Abrams, who also followed up a great 1st half with a sad 2nd half. What the hell happened in Washington in July? Did someone put a curse on them or something? So much promise in the 1st half, only to watch it poof and disappear. Abrams was having the power breakout I foresaw with 12 homers and his Hard Hit numbers way up in his first 70 games, but it completely disappeared in the 2nd half. He finished the year in the same place he was in 2024 with a 39.2% Hard Hit% and 19 homers (20 homers with a 40.7% Hard Hit% in 2024). The good news is that a 20/30 guy with above average contact rates (19.7% K%), above average bat speed (72.4 MPH swing), and plenty of lift (13.3 degree launch) and pull (22.2% Air Pull%) is a really good fantasy player with a very high floor. And entering his 25 year old season, I still have to believe more raw power is coming, giving him some very real upside in his prime man muscle seasons. His ascent to elite dynasty asset might have just been delayed by one year. – 2026 Projection: 88/22/71/.262/.321/.448/33

9) Jesus Made – MIL, SS, 18.11 – Made was having a solid season at Single-A, especially when you took into account he was only 18 years old, but he wasn’t really blowing the doors off with a .267/.373/.388 triple-slash. For a moment there, I was like, maybe this isn’t quite the straight rocket ship we were promised … but then he got called up to High-A and he hit the after burners, slashing .343/.415/.500 with 2 homers, 5 steals, and a 17.9/10.6 K%/BB% in 27 games. I talk about this more in the Colt Emerson blurb, but there is no better sign than when a prospect gets called up to a higher level, and not only maintains their production, but actually takes it up a notch. That is the #1 sign of the rocket ship. Milwaukee obviously recognized this too, promoting him again to Double-A at the end of the season, and while he struggled in 5 regular season games (33.3% K% with a 86 wRC+), he made his mark in the playoffs, going the opposite way off the humongous billboard advertisement for Renova Roofing. “Mother Nature ruins everything. Renova Roofing can help.” They really got their money’s worth that night. How much do you think that goes for? Should I just put a huge Brick Wall up on that thing next year or something? hah … When it was all said and done, Made delivered on his unanimous off-season hype. The hit tool, approach, hard hit and speed (47 steals) were all there. He needs to lift and pull more to full tap into his raw power (only 6 homers in 115 games), but his profile can work without a ton of lift and pull, and it wasn’t in the danger zone or anything with a 43.7% GB% and 40.5% Pull%. There is zero doubt this is the elite prospect we were promised. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 101/25/81/.278/.360/.481/28

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 132 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2026 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
–2026 DEEP POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 80 C–Top 91 1B–Top 97 2B–Top 101 3B–Top 161 SS
-TOP 130+ 2026 FYPD RANKS + STRATEGY & TARGET GUIDE (coming next week)
–END OF SEASON 2025 TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
–END OF SEASON 2025 TOP 325 PROSPECTS RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: END OF SEASON MAILBAG!
–SPREADSHEETS
–OFF-SEASON CONTENT: Dynasty Team Reports (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy of the Day), Deep Positional Rankings, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Position by Position Targets, 2026 & Prime/Peak Projections, Top 1,000+ Dynasty Rankings, Top 500+ Prospects Rankings, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks + much more

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon (free ones listed in parenthesis)

Arizona Diamondbacks—Atlanta Braves—Baltimore Orioles—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago Cubs (free)—Cincinnati Reds (free)—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Yankees (free)—Pittsburgh Pirates (free)—Sacramento Athletics—Seattle Mariners—St. Louis Cardinals (free)—Tampa Bay Rays—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

There was a flurry of Hot Stove action over the last few days, and I discuss those moves in the Strategy/Thoughts section down below, but first, it’s all about the Sox on the Brick Wall today. Top 100+ Third Base Rankings also kick off on the Patreon this week, with the Top 80 Catchers, Top 91 1B and Top 97 2B already completed. Here is the Boston Red Sox 2026 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 132 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2026 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
–2026 DEEP POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 80 C–Top 91 1B–Top 97 2B
–END OF SEASON 2025 TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
–END OF SEASON 2025 TOP 325 PROSPECTS RANKS
-TOP 60 2026 FYPD RANKS w/ Analysis & Prime Projections for every player (Full Top 130 FYPD Ranks coming soon)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: END OF SEASON MAILBAG!
–SPREADSHEETS
–OFF-SEASON CONTENT: Dynasty Team Reports (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy of the Day), Deep Positional Rankings, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Position by Position Targets, 2026 & Prime/Peak Projections, Top 1,000+ Dynasty Rankings, Top 500+ Prospects Rankings, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks + much more

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon (free ones listed in parenthesis)

Arizona Diamondbacks—Atlanta Braves—Baltimore Orioles—Chicago Cubs (free)—Cincinnati Reds (free)—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Yankees (free)—Pittsburgh Pirates (free)—Sacramento Athletics—Seattle Mariners—St. Louis Cardinals (free)—Tampa Bay Rays—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

Hitters

Kristian Campbell – BOS, 2B/OF, 23.9 – There is a popular saying, most famously said by John F. Kennedy, but originally attributed to Tacitus, a Roman historian, that “Victory has a thousand fathers, but defeat is an orphan.” Great saying, but I think in the fantasy/prospect world, it’s the exact opposite. When you hit on a player, or when a writer hits on a player, “I” was the one who nailed that pick, but when you miss on a player, “we” were the ones who got it wrong. I try to avoid doing it because it’s something I’ve noticed a lot (well, avoid doing the “we” one, I don’t avoid victory lapping ha), and I’ve definitely been guilty of it, but with that as the backdrop, “I” definitely missed on Campbell … wait, did I just find a way to actually still blame “we” on getting it wrong while also getting the morality win on saying “I?” … did I just find the loophole? Yes, yes I did, ha, but back to Campbell’s disaster of a season, his out of nowhere monster 2024 breakout turned out to not be sustainable. I’m not going to say it was mirage, because it wasn’t a mirage, he just couldn’t keep it up. The hard hit ability, lift/pull, speed/baserunning and bat speed all took big drops. He put up a 84.1 MPH EV, 29.9% Hard Hit%, a 5 degree launch and 4 steals in 73 games at Triple-A. I’m not even sure what we are supposed to do with that? That is atrocious. He got off to a hot start to his MLB career with a .935 OPS in his first 28 games, and then it was a straight nose dive after that with a .451 OPS in his next 39 games. And like I mentioned, those underlying numbers got even scarier after he got sent down. Even with loving him last off-season, I did have one small cautious thought, writing in his Top 1,000 blurb, “Underscoring my visual evaluation of that explosive shoulder movement is that shortly after that homer he hit the IL with a lat strain, which is right under the shoulder blades. Campbell underwent a well documented swing change and bat speed training to unlock more power last off-season, which was obviously successful beyond anybody’s wildest imagination, so let’s just hope that it’s not going to cause more injuries. That is the only small thing that is even rattling around in my brain as a negative” … maybe the swing was just too violent to truly keep up. I can’t tell you exactly what happened, but I can tell you he wasn’t the same guy he was in 2024. With below average speed, not many steals, and a low launch, I don’t see how we can be even close to excited for Campbell in 2026. Even a bounce back might only look like a solid but not standout fantasy bat, and he was so bad at 2B that he’s only being considered in the OF now. I’m scared off. – 2026 Projection: 28/7/24/.238/.312/.395/4 Prime Projection: 77/19/69/.251/.336/.429/11

Roman Anthony – BOS, OF, 21.11 – I nitpicked a few things about Anthony last off-season that I thought could impact his ultimate fantasy value. For one, I questioned how many bases he was going to steal, and I was correct with him stealing only 4 in 71 games in the majors (3 in 58 games in the minors). I also questioned how much he was going to lift and pull, and again, I was correct as he put up a 6.9 degree launch with a 13.8% Air Pull%. He hit 8 homers in 71 games. And finally I questioned the contact rates, and there too I ended up being correct with him putting up a 27.7% K% and 29.8% whiff%. I was right about the things to nitpick, and maybe they still come into play in future years, but the bat was just so insanely elite I don’t think it matters anymore. He had an elite of the elite 75.1 MPH swing with a 94.5 MPH EV and 60.3% Hard Hit%. That puts him in the land of Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Yordan Alvarez. While the homer totals weren’t high, 6 of them came in his final 21 games. The .382 xwOBA is already in the near elite range. A bat like that is launch proof, and even if he doesn’t run a ton, anything he does add there is just gravy. His best comp looking at the elite dynasty assets could be Juan Soto, albeit with worse contact rates. He ranked 13th overall on A Top 132 Sneak Peek of the 2026 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). – 2026 Projection: 102/25/81/.272/.379/.486/10 Prime Projection: 120/35/105/.285/.406/.530/15

Ceddanne Rafaela – BOS, OF/2B, 25.7 – I want to like Rafaela more than I actually do. I want to call him the poor man’s Pete Crow Armstrong, but he’s really not. Sure he has the elite CF defense, a terrible 42.2% Chase%, and a solid power/speed combo (16/20), but a 12.8 degree launch and 16.1% Air Pull% is a far cry from PCA’s extreme lift/pull, and 20 steals is a little underwhelming especially in our new age of base stealing. That power/speed combo isn’t quite big enough when it comes with a .249 BA and .295 OBP. He made improvements in 2025 with a 6.5 point drop in K% to 19.9% and a 2.7 point increase in Barrel% to 9.2%, but it still resulted in a .304 xwOBA and .709 OPS. He’s a young player whose best days should be ahead of him, and the fantasy upside is certainly in here, but I can’t say he’s a big target for me this off-season with his pretty strong value (150 NFBC ADP). Adding a star for that pesky 2B eligibility and he seems fairly priced to me. – 2026 Projection: 80/18/68/.256/.305/.420/23

Pitchers

Johan Oviedo – BOS, RHP, 28.1 – Oviedo was my very first player write-up of the off-season in my Pittsburgh Pirates Team Report back on October 6th, so make sure to check that one out for my take on Oviedo. Spoiler alert, I loved him as a true “sleeper,” and while the trade definitely increased his visibility, it still seems the price is low, partly because he doesn’t have a guaranteed rotation spot. But I find it kinda hard to believe Boston makes this deal if they don’t view him in the rotation. I still like him a lot as a true late round sleeper. Also, side note: Mike Burrows was another player in that Pitt write-up who I was planning on scooping for cheap, but now with the trade to Houston, I have a feeling his hype is going to rise majorly. Check out my take on that trade, plus the Murakami signing, the Baz trade, and the Contreras trade in the Strategy/Thoughts section down below in this post

Bullpen

Aroldis Chapman – BOS, Closer, 38.1 – It took him 37 years but Chapman was finally able to improve his control. He went from a 14.4% BB% in 2024 to a 6.6% BB% in 2025. Again, as a 37 year old. Mind blowing. Don’t let anyone tell you that you’re too old to improve. And come to think of it, how about putting him back in the rotation now? hah … he was being considered as a starter when he first came over from Cuba. He has the pitch mix for it. He has the stuff, obviously. I mean, would anything be more insane than Chapman turning into an ace at age 38? … I’m kidding of course (kinda), so we’ll have to settle for him being an elite closer, putting up a 1.17 ERA with a 37.3% K% in 61.1 IP. The sinker sat 99.4 MPH and all 4 of his pitches miss bats like crazy. We can’t count on the control gains being fully real as relievers are inherently volatile due to small sample seasons, but it really doesn’t make that much of a difference for his dynasty value. He’s going to rack up K’s and saves, which is what we are buying him for. The only question is for how much longer. – 2026 Projection: 4/2.84/1.10/89/33 saves in 62 IP

Boston Red Sox 2026 Top 10 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Prospects Rankings

1) Payton Tolle – BOS, LHP, 23.5 – Tolle could have been in the discussion for the #1 pitching prospect in baseball if he popped as much as Burns/Yesavage/McLean popped in the majors, but his ride wasn’t as smooth with a 6.06 ERA, 4.58 xERA, and 25.7/10.8 K%/BB% in 16.1 IP. While it does take him out of the running for the top spot, that really has more to do with how great those other guys looked, because I’m actually more encouraged than discouraged by his debut. The most important thing for him to show was that his double plus to elite 96.7 MPH fastball would play against MLB hitters, and it did indeed prove that with an excellent 28.3% whiff% and 86.1 MPH EV against. The pitch got extremely unlucky and he threw it 64.1% of the time, which was the biggest culprit for the poor debut. The secondaries have always been the biggest question for him, and while they weren’t great in the debut, I’m encouraged that they all missed bats. The changeup put up a 50% whiff% (also a 50% whiff% at Triple-A), the slider put up a 30% whiff% with a strong .249 xwOBA, the cutter put up a 30% whiff% and the curve didn’t give up a single hit. It all resulted in a 30.1% whiff% overall, which I love to see. And of course he destroyed the minors with a 3.04 ERA and 36.5/6.3 K%/BB% in 91.2 IP spread across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). The walk rate spiked in the majors to 10.8%, which I don’t want to completely dismiss, but the larger sample in the minors rules the day for me long term. He might not be in the conversation for #1 overall, but this is still an elite pitching prospect for me. – 2026 Projection: 5/3.74/1.19/95 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.39/1.11/200 in 180 IP

2) Marcelo Mayer – BOS, 3B, 23.4 – I get the sense that people are starting to get lulled to sleep by Mayer. They view him as a nice bat maybe, solid player, but I think people are massively underestimating how special of a bat this is. Dude is 6’3” with one of the sweetest lefty swings out there, and it’s not just sweet, it’s lightning fast with a 74.1 MPH bat speed. It results in him consistently crushing the ball with a 48.5% Hard Hit% at Triple-A and an even better 51.7% Hard Hit% in the majors. That mark was 29th best in baseball (over 500 pitch minimum). This isn’t just a nice, solid bat. This dude is a beast. Some hit tool issues popped up in the MLB debut with a .228 BA and 30.1/5.9 K%/BB%, but a 28.6% whiff% and 29.7% Chase% isn’t bad at all for a 22 year old’s first taste of the bigs. It’s actually more encouraging than discouraging. He’s not a lift and pull machine, but a 12 degree launch with a 17.9% Air Pull% at Triple-A is perfectly fine, especially with how hard he hits the ball. And while he doesn’t run a ton, the 27.5 ft/sec sprint was average, so he should at least chip in a handful. Everything is trending toward Mayer being a complete hitter who will hit in the middle of a strong Red Sox lineup for years to come. His glove was excellent at both 3B and 2B, so it’s highly likely he will have a starting job somewhere right out of the gate. I don’t love the wrist surgery, as wrist injuries are known killers, but I’m not letting it scare me off. If Mayer isn’t being treated like the truly special bat he is in your league, I would jump on that value. – 2026 Projection: 68/20/77/.252/.313/.433/8 Prime Projection: 94/27/94/.271/.344/.482/11

3) Connelly Early – BOS, LHP, 24.0 – The prospect world still kinda treats Early like he’s a nice soft tossing lefty who could pitch towards the back of a rotation. I guess when you evaluate a guy for years, it can be hard to get prior evaluations out of your head, but he ain’t that guy anymore. Redraft guys don’t have that prior perception problem, and it’s why he’s going 214th in NFBC right now. That might fall due to the Sox adding 2 starters this off-season, but the point is that redrafters saw him with fresh eyes, and they liked what they saw. This isn’t a junk balling lefty. The fastball ticked up in 2025 and averaged 94 MPH in the majors (93.5 MPH at AAA). That would put him among the Top 15-ish or so lefty starters in the game for velocity. And the pitch utterly dominated both Triple-A batters and MLB batters. It put up a 29.3% whiff% with a .236 xwOBA in the majors. He’s 6’3” and still has room to get stronger, so if he was able to raise the velocity once, who is to say that he can’t do it again. He doesn’t need to, but if does get closer to 95, that would be put in him in rarified air for a lefty. The beauty of coming up a soft tosser is that he learned the art of pitching, and he’s a maestro on the mound, throwing a legit 6 pitch mix. The changeup is his best secondary with weak contact and bat missing ability, and he throws 3 different breakers (curve, slider, sweeper), with the curve standing out on the MLB level with a .179 xwOBA and 39.4% whiff%. He didn’t go to the sweeper often, but it was ridiculous in the majors with an 83.3% whiff%. It all resulted in a 2.33 ERA with a 36.7/5.1 K%/BB% in 19.1 IP in the majors and a 2.60 ERA with a 31.9/9.7 K%/BB% in 100.1 IP at Triple-A. Rotation spot or no rotation spot to start the season, I’m buying high on Early this off-season, as even after the breakout I still don’t think he gets the respect he deserves in the prospect world. – 2026 Projection: 6/3.78/1.23/115 in 110 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.46/1.17/200 in 180 IP

4) Franklin Arias – BOS, SS, 20.4 – I’ve talked about my aversion to hit tool first players without bit tools or big power/speed combos in a few different player blurbs this off-season, and while that blew up in my face with Kevin McGonigle, I feel like I nailed it with Starlyn Caba, Angel Genao and Franklin Arias. It’s not that I hate these guys, they just aren’t the ones I fly up rankings wild crazy. I liked Arias and had him as a Top 100-ish prospect type, and he had that safety over upside season that I projected him for, slashing .278/.335/.388 with 8 homers, a 47.7% GB%, 12 steals in 21 attempts, and a 10.1/7.2 K%/BB% in 116 games at mostly High-A. The hype has definitely cooled a bit from last off-season, and the funny thing is I now see I might be slightly higher on him than other places, or at least I’m fully on board with his current value. The hit tool is a standout skill, and he’s not a light hitting nothing. He can put a sting into the ball. Keep in mind he was 19 years old at both High-A and Double-A. At the age appropriate Single-A to start the year he dominated with a .346 BA in 19 games. He’s also a strong defender at SS, so the glove will get him on the field. The power/speed combo might never be huge, but it should be good enough when combined with the hit/glove combo. I like him at his current level of hype. Really good prospect. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 78/17/76/.276/.332/.430/12

5) Jhostynxon Garcia – PIT, OF, 23.4 – I know that Garcia isn’t on the Red Sox anymore but I already did Pitt’s Dynasty Report back in October, so it makes sense to still include Garcia here so he doesn’t fall through the cracks. He’s also a super interesting player now that he’s not blocked. But I kinda feel like one of those videos where the dogs are barking like crazy and acting all tough behind a closed gate, but once the gate opens, they immediately calm down and do nothing. Let me at em, let me at em, let me at em … oh wait, let’s think this thing through for a second hah … and the thing I’m thinking through is that the underlying numbers at Triple-A were pretty damn lackluster. An 86.4 MPH EV, 34.6% Hard Hit%, 34.2% whiff%, and 26.8/9.2 K%/BB% is actually pretty bad. He only stole 7 bags in 114 games. I’m excited by the 75 MPH swing he showed in his cup of coffee in the majors, but that was a very small sample (just 14 swings), so considering he also had a 50% whiff%, I kinda doubt it is going to be that high for a full season. Regardless, it’s exciting that he swings such a quick bat. But if this is a low BA, good but not great power bat with only a handful of steals, it’s not like that is a world beater profile. The Pirates are also the single worst park for righty homers by far with a 68 (Statcast, 3 year rolling average). I can’t lie to you, I just don’t see myself really sticking my neck out for this. If I already owned him, this trade is awesome, because he’s going to get his shot, but if I didn’t own him, I can’t say he’s a particular target for me this off-season. I was all over his breakout when his price was dirt cheap, but I don’t think I’m buying on the high side right now. – 2026 Projection: 49/14/55/.230/.297/.419/6 Prime Projection: 73/25/83/.248/.322/.456/8

6) Kyson Witherspoon – BOS, RHP, 21.8 – Selected 15th overall in the 2025 MLB Draft, the 6’2”, 205 pound Witherspoon might have the most visually explosive arm action in the class, and it’s weird too. You know I love me some weirdness in a pitcher’s delivery, and Witherspoon has that with a jerky, quick, short and very explosive arm. The delivery itself is very smooth and athletic though, and it all adds up to a deep and explosive arsenal. The fastball sits mid to upper 90’s, the potentially plus slider is his best secondary, and the hard, upper 80’s changeup has the potential to be a nasty pitch with further refinement. He also throws a cutter and curve. It led to a 2.65 ERA with a 31.8/5.9 K%/BB% in 95 IP in the SEC. He hasn’t quite flashed the type of strikeout upside that the pitchers ranked above him have because the fastball doesn’t miss as many bats as you would think, but the stuff looks as nasty as anyone’s to me. He’s really exciting and there is easily impact fantasy starter potential in here. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection:12/3.71/1.19/182 in 180 IP

7) Luis Perales – WSH, RHP, 22.11 – Just like Garcia, I already did Washington’s Team Report, so I’m including Perales here. Boston and Washington swapped upside for safety (Perales for Jake Bennett), and while I actually do think the trade is in the fair range for real life, I’m easily a Perales guy for fantasy. I’m a Perales guy for real life too for that matter. He returned from June 2024 Tommy John surgery and immediately showed the insanely exciting stuff was back with the fastball sitting upper 90’s. He couldn’t command it to save his life in his return with a 18% BB% in 11.1 IP in the AFL, and he got bombed there with a 10.32 ERA, so while it’s great to see the big stuff back, it’s hard to say he proved he is fully healthy. He actually relied more on his plus, low 90’s cutter than he did the heater. He was going full breakout in 2024 with a 2.94 ERA with a 38.9/8.3 K%/BB% in 33.2 IP at High-A and Double-A before going down with the injury, and he certainly didn’t pick up right from where he left off. He was of course just ramping back up and shaking the rust off, so we have to give him a lot of leeway, but seeing it again first would be nice before getting too crazy with his ranking. He also still has bullpen risk as he needs to improve his secondaries (slider, splitter). There is plenty of risk here, both injury and bullpen, but the upside is just as high, even if he does end up in the bullpen as a potential future closer. He’s a major 2026 breakout candidate. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 10/3.78/1.29/164 in 150 IP

8) Justin Gonzales – BOS, 1B/OF, 19.3 – Justin Gonzales is the discount Edward Florentino. I had Gonzales and Florentino ranked back to back this off-season (with Florentino one spot ahead, thank you very much ;), and while Gonzales didn’t go full elite prospect breakout like Florentino, he had a damn impressive season, slashing .298/.381/.423 with 4 homers, 11 steals, and a 14.6/9.8 K%/BB% in 81 games at Single-A. It was good for a 131 wRC+. He did this as an 18 year old in full season ball all year, and he most certainly looks the part at 6’4”, 210 pounds with an athletic and powerful righty swing. He hasn’t learned how to tap into his double plus to elite raw power yet with a concerning 55.8% GB%, but considering his age and how much I like his swing ingredients in general, I’m betting on him doing much better than that in the future. He’ll need to change his stance/swing to do it though. While the game power isn’t there yet, the plate skills were impressive, and it’s another indication that he’s the type of precocious hitter that will be able to make the necessary adjustments. He’s a monster breakout candidate for 2026 and he’s one of my favorite targets not getting anywhere close to Top 100 love. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 82/23/84/.272/.341/.455/9

9) Juan Valera – BOS, RHP, 19.10 – Valera most certainly looks the part at 6’3” with an easy and explosive righty delivery that he uses to fire a mid to upper 90’s fastball. The secondaries aren’t as refined, but he knows how to spin it with the breakers flashing plus, along with a changeup that lags behind but has potential. Keep in mind he started the season as an 18 year old, so there is so much refinement and tinkering coming down the line. And Boston showed how much they liked him by sending him to High-A immediately, putting up a 3.00 xFIP (5.45 ERA) with a 27.5/6.0 K%/BB% in 38 IP. He suffered an elbow injury that kept him out for a large chunk of the season, which just highlights how much risk there is with young flamethrowers like this. He’s also far from a finished product, and there are sooooooooo many enticing pitchers with legit upside in the upper minors, so I don’t really think he’s close to a Top 100 arm, but he’s on that trajectory if he can stay healthy. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 10/3.82/1.26/163 in 160 IP

10) Dorian Soto – BOS, SS, 18.2 – Soto was one of the most exciting incoming international prospects last off-season, and while he didn’t explode in 2025, he did enough to maintain his value, slashing .307/.362/.428 with 2 homers, 1 steal, and a 15.1/8.6 K% in 47 games in the DSL. He showed a good feel to hit, and at a projectable 6’2” with a smooth and quick swing, there is only more power coming. The 38.9% GB% shows there is no major groundball risk either. There is a potential for a potent hit/power combo here at peak. It would have been nice to see more stolen bases, the walk rate is a bit on the low side for the DSL, and he needs more refinement all around, so he’s more of a Top 250-ish type prospect, but the big breakout potential if most certainly in here. – ETA: 2030 Prime Projection: 72/24/81/.267/.328/.453/6

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Munetaka Murakami signs a 2 year, $34 million contract with the Chicago White Sox

Well, that’s a lot lower than expected. And I completely get it, as I wrote in his write-up, “Murakami doesn’t just have red flags, he’s carrying around and waving the biggest red flag we’ve ever seen. It would be crazy to just ignore it or even downplay it any way. This honestly feels like a disaster waiting to happen.” … and now going to Chicago on a much shorter, smaller deal than anticipated makes this feel like even more of a disaster. But I actually don’t mind the landing spot. He will get a full runway and leash to just let it fly, and even if he hits in the low .200’s, his power is more than big enough to make a fantasy impact. Sure he didn’t get the big contract, but when comparing him to other FYPD picks, those guys only got like $6-10 million signing bonuses too. All of those kids have risk just like Murakami. It’s not going to stop me from ranking him in the Top 5 range in FYPD Rankings (Top 130 FYPD Rankings coming in early January). As for the fallout, this is why I was a bit low on Lenyn Sosa in the 1B and 2B Positional Rankings. I don’t trust poor glove, low OBP players to lock in playing time, and now there is even more pressure on his bat for playing time. Edgar Quero might get hurt the most though if Sosa/Murakami DH a lot and Teel keeps on producing.

The Rays trade Shane Baz to the Orioles for Michael Forret, Slater de Brun, Caden Bodine, Austin Overn, and a Competitive Balance Round A pick

Nobody’s fantasy value really changes majorly here. Bodine might get the biggest bump as he now becomes the heavy favorite to be Tampa’s catcher of the future. Still doesn’t have big enough fantasy upside to care too much, so it matters more for deep leagues. The trade also emboldens my love of Forret even more. Tampa is worthy of respect, and them targeting Forret in this deal means they see the same things I’m seeing. Baz’ value doesn’t change at all. I wrote him up in the Tampa Team Report, and the short of it is that this year isn’t the year to give up him. Baltimore obviously sees the hope for a 2026 breakout. So this deal is much more fun from a real life angle than a fantasy angle. I mentioned that Tampa has actually been coasting on their reputation of churning out a never ending glut of position players, and that they aren’t actually that deep. They obviously saw the same thing, going with a quantity deal to restock that depth. There might not be one centerpiece, but they got 5 legitimate pieces back in return, and I would argue Forret is a true centerpiece. I would say the deal is in the fair range, but I like it better for Tampa than I do Baltimore. Too many quality pieces going back for a guy who hasn’t broken out yet, has injury risk, and is getting into his most expensive arbitration years.

The Pirates trade Mike Burrows to the Astros for Brandon Lowe, Jake Magnun and Mason Montgomery

The Rays trade Lowe and Mangum for Jacob Melton and Anderson Brito

The Astros trade Melton and Brito for Burrows

Back on October 6th, in my very first team report (Pittsburgh Pirates Team Report), I made a concerted effort to give “sleepers” that I thought would remain sleepers all season, digging deep into the pitching pool and naming Oviedo, Ashcraft and Burrows 3 pitchers I’m going to be grabbing a ton of late. And then boom, Oviedo gets put into the limelight with the Boston trade, Eno loves Braxton Ashcraft too (there goes that value ;), and now Houston targets Burrows and already is talking about tinkering with the pitch mix (adding a two seamer). Everyone respects Houston’s pitching development, for good reason, so poof, there goes the value on Burrows too. I already liked him late in drafts, and he gets a deserved bump with Houston.

Mangum probably gets the next biggest bump, or maybe the biggest bump as it sure seems he has an inside track to a starting OF job. He has a contact/speed/defense combo that has value in both real life and fantasy. He’s not the type I go after as he will likely hurt you everywhere else, but if you need steals, and in deeper leagues, he’s at the minimum fantasy relevant.

Lowe enters one of the worst parks for lefty homers, and while it’s a small downgrade, his power is big enough where I wouldn’t really change his value because of it. It’s also only for one season most likely. Brito goes from one good pitching org to another, so his value holds steady. Melton seemed to have a bit more opportunity in Houston than he does in Tampa, but Tampa doesn’t trade for him if they didn’t like him, so I don’t think it changes his value much long term.

The Cardinals trade Willson Contreras to the Red Sox for Hunter Dobbins, Yhoiker Fajardo, and Blake Aita

I closed out Contreras’ blurb in the Cardinals Dynasty Team Report by writing, “If he lands in the right ballpark, we might see that offensive explosion we hoped for in 2025. Even without that, he’s still an excellent hitter regardless of position with an elite 76 MPH swing and 13.9% Barrel%. Losing catcher eligibility hurts, but don’t underrate him going into 2026. We could still see a huge season depending on if he gets traded or not.” … and now he got traded to one of the best offensive ballparks in the league. Not necessarily for homers, because of the monster, but it’s still a big upgrade. Just like the Red Sox viewed him as a very enticing win now piece, willing to pay the vast majority of his remaining contract and still give up solid pitching, I view him the same way. His bat is no joke. I’m expecting a very impactful fantasy season in 2026.

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
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First off, I hope everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiving break and spending time with their family! Because there is never any stress or anxiety when families come together 😉 My family definitely had zero family drama this weekend 😉 None at all hah … wild times … But now we are back to business, and that business is the business of ranking baseball players! So Welcome to First Baseman Rankings Week where I’m ranking some the biggest boppers in the game. A position so “easy” to play, that it will bring grown men to near tears when they have to play it … Rafael Devers. I’m going over 80 deep with full analysis, 2026 projections, and Prime Projections for every player, as usual. Top 6 free here on the Brick Wall. Here is the 2026 Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings: Top 80+ First Baseman:

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1) Nick Kurtz – OAK, 1B, 23.1 – Kurtz stepped right into the majors and immediately performed like one of the best power hitters of all time with 36 homers and a 1.002 OPS in 117 games. He was actually even better in his brief minor league career with a 1.152 OPS in 33 games, and he was even better than that in his college career with a 1.234 OPS in 164 games, so it’s not like what he did in the majors came out of nowhere. It follows the narrative of him simply being one of the best hitters of his generation. The 77.2 MPH swing, 18.4% Barrel%, and 97.7 MPH FB/LD EV are all in the elite of the elite. There is no question that he’s going to be a beastly power hitter for a long time, but there is a question if he’s really going to be an all time great. For one, he played in a minor league stadium that was massively juicing up homer totals (he hit 22 at home vs. 12 on the road). He’ll be playing there again in 2026 and 2027, so I’m not even sure we can use that as a negative, but it’s something to keep in mind for 2028 and beyond. The two biggest red flags are that he struggled vs. lefties (.197 BA with a .685 OPS), and that he showed danger zone level of swing and miss with a 35.5% whiff% and 30.9% K%. He had a 31.2% K% in his final 48 games, and a .221 BA with a 35.1% K% in his final 23 games, so you certainly can’t say it was improving by the end of the year either. If he has a sophomore slump where the BA tanks, it won’t be coming out of nowhere. The signs were there. But in dynasty especially, it would be far too risk averse to get scared off by that. This was just his first full year of pro ball, so I’m expecting contact improvement, and he’s the type of hitter who can hit for high BA’s even with an elevated K%, like he’s been doing his whole career. My bet is that he is one of the best power hitters of his generation, and the floor is high too as he’s going to hit a ton of dingers no matter what. – 2026 Projection: 97/38/111/.267/.361/.528/3

2) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – TOR, 1B, 27.0 – Vlad sparks a really interesting floor vs. upside debate when it comes to very early round picks. I understand the strategy of taking high floor guys with your early picks, and then going for the upside shots later on. It makes sense. And Guerrero has as high of a floor as anybody with elite contact rates (13.8% K%) and elite Hard Hit (50.7%). It resulted in a very strong season with a .292 BA and 23 homers in 156 games, which was good for 53rd overall. That is also clearly on the low end of his ability as he smashed 8 homers in 18 games in the postseason. He’s a true talent 30 homer bat with a very high BA, which is awesome, but unless he starts lifting and pulling more, that just isn’t the level of production that other elite dynasty assets can give you. I really want all category contributors with my very top picks, and because Vlad isn’t going to help much in steals, he’s already capped there. So if you aren’t going to contribute in all categories, you need to be an absolute beast in others, and taking out his 2019 season where played in 2 miniature ballparks, he’s never hit more than 32 homers. He’s averaged about 27-28 homers over the last 4 years. His xwOBA says he’s been unlucky, but as I laid out in the Tatis blurb, xwOBA most certainly underrates lifting and pulling, and Vlad doesn’t lift and pull with a 7.8 degree launch and 14% Air Pull%. He’s underperformed his xwOBA in his career. If he starts lifting and pulling more, he can definitely have that explosion, and if you are in leagues that devalue steals (points/6+ category leagues), then for sure he would be ranked higher in those leagues, but in 5×5, I think this is a pretty fair ranking. He’s just more BA dependent than optimal. – 2026 Projection: 96/31/105/.303/.390/.507/5

3) Pete Alonso – UFA, 1B, 31.5 – Alonso is one of the true rocks of our game. He’s never played in less than 152 games (he’s played in all 162 the last 2 years) and he’s never hit less than 34 homers (38 homers in 2025). Underlying numbers wise, he actually had a career year in 2025 with a career high .399 xwOBA and career high by far 93.5 MPH EV. His only weakness was that he was a BA risk, and even that is now gone with a .272 BA and .288 xBA. The 75.3 MPH swing is near elite. No matter where he lands, he will once again be one of the best power hitters in the game. Simple as that. – 2026 Projection: 92/40/120/.263/.348/.519/3

4) Rafael Devers – SFG, 3B/1B, 29.5 – Devers is going to be a beast no matter the ballpark. When you hit the ball as hard as he does (93.5 MPH EV, 16% Barrel%, 56.1% Hard Hit%), you can play on Jupiter (Jupiter has the strongest gravity in our soler system at 2.5 times Earth), and you will still hit plenty of dingers. He cracked 11 homers in 48 games at Oracle Park in San Francisco. He hit 20 homers in 90 games after getting traded. His power isn’t going anywhere. But even for a beast, it’s still a ballpark downgrade. He had a .977 OPS at Fenway vs. a .825 OPS at Oracle. His strikeout rate spiked after the trade with a 22.8% K% and .272 BA with Boston vs. a 29.4% K% and .236 BA with SF. He said he wasn’t going to change his approach after the trade, but he started to lift and pull a lot more, which came at the cost of more swing and miss. I don’t know if he was feeling pressure after the trade, or if it was a conscious choice based on his new ballpark, or if it was the result of him relenting and finally giving 1B a try, or a combination of all of them, but there was a clear approach change after the trade. A full off-season to get mentally prepared for his new team, new ballpark and new position should only help him, and he has the type of special bat that I’m simply not betting against. If this change prompts him to lift and pull more, and if he can actually combine that with usually strong K rates, it could result in a monster season, especially since he also put up career bests in BB% (15.4%) and Chase% (25.5%). I would advise against discounting him too much, or at all. If he gets lukewarm love this off-season, I would jump on that value dip. – 2026 Projection: 92/33/104/.267/.355/.501/3

5) Bryce Harper – PHI, 1B, 33.6 – There are reasons to start fading Harper in dynasty, or at least consider selling if you want to cash him in before we really see the next level value dip. The most obvious one is that he’s 33 years old. He’s also been pretty banged up in his career and of late, averaging only 129 games over his last 5 seasons (132 in 2025). And he really doesn’t have one truly standout, elite category we can bank on in 5×5 BA. He hit .261 with 27 homers, 12 steals, 72 Runs, and 75 RBI. Those numbers are really not all that out of line with what he’s been doing of late, maybe with some bad luck on the BA. If he has another good but not truly standout season, the dynasty value drop will be extreme going into 2027. Right now the value is still pretty stable. I’m still 100% betting on him being a beast deep into his 30’s as his .379 xwOBA was still in the Top 9% of baseball, but if there is some decline, and if he keeps on missing 30 games a year, he might start to look like just a really good fantasy player rather than a great one. I’m just saying he wouldn’t be untouchable for me if the right deal came along and I wanted to kick start a rebuild, but of course I would still need a haul to move him. – 2026 Projection: 85/30/85/.277/.370/.510/12

6) Josh Naylor – SEA, 1B, 28.9 – We’re all gonna underrate Naylor again, aren’t we. I warned you last year that we were underrating him, writing in his Top 1,000 blurb, “He finished 30th overall on the Razzball Player Rater and is currently going 92nd overall in NFBC drafts, so that tells me that everyone is expecting regression, but I think there is a real chance he could put up a few really big seasons in these prime man muscle late 20’s years.” … and then in 2025 he went and finished 31st overall on the Razzball Player Rater. Why are we making this so hard on ourselves? Just take him 30th overall. We need to stop overthinking this. Granted, he took a different path to that outcome in 2025 than he did in 2024. Like many expected, he wasn’t able to come close to the 31 homers again (he hit 20), but he made up for it by hitting for a much higher average (.295 BA), and most notably, becoming Ricky Henderson on the bases with 30 steals in 32 attempts. He also ripped up the playoffs with 3 homers, 2 steals, and a .340 BA in 12 games. The double ballpark downgrade (first Arizona and then Seattle) didn’t faze him at all, and him re-signing with Seattle should not scare us at all considering the damage he did there already, including his dominant post-season. He’s a complete hitter with elite contact (13.7% K%), above average Hard Hit (41.9%), the ability to lift in the air (19.6% Air Pull%), and now base stealing ability too, despite being slow as dirt with a bottom 3% sprint speed. Even if we can’t count on close to 30 steals again, I don’t see why he would just stop running. He had another season where he stole 10 in 121 games, so this wasn’t quite completely out of nowhere. No matter how he gets to Top 30 overall (power, BA, steals), I’m not going to keep doubting that he is going to get there again. I am valuing this man correctly. – 2026 Projection: 80/23/92/.280/.340/.460/18

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
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Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)