Posted on by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 500 Prospects Rankings for 2023 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Leagues

It’s Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings Week over on the Patreon, and we kick it off today with the Top 500 Prospects Rankings for 2023 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Leagues. The Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings will drop tomorrow at the earliest, and Monday at the very, very latest. These lists will be released here on Imaginary Brick Wall in mid to late March. Here is the Top 500 Prospects Rankings for 2023 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Leagues:

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1) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 21.9 – Nothing makes me more comfortable about a prospect than one who gets called up to the majors and immediately puts up elite exit velocity numbers. Henderson smacked the crap outta the ball to the tune of a 92.4/98.1 MPH AVG/FB EV in 132 MLB PA. That would almost be enough for me to love love a player on it’s own, a la Oneil Cruz, but Henderson does just about everything else well too. His hit tool improved majorly this year, dropping his K% from 30.1% in 2021 in mostly the lower minors, to 23.1% in 2022 in the upper minors. The improvements transferred to the majors with a very reasonable 26.6% whiff% and 25.8% K%. He’s put up high walk rates his entire career and he’s also very fast with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. He’s almost a flawless prospect. I say “almost,” because he’s struggled vs. lefties in his career, but he’s still very young, so improvement is almost certainly coming, and it’s also a testament to how badly he decimates righties. 2023 Projection: 82/25/85/.262/.347/.473/14 Prime Projection: 106/32/102/.278/.383/.518/16

2) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.7 – Gunnar vs. Carroll is like Witt vs. Julio all over again. Julio pulled into the clear lead this year, but you were happy with either and their values could swing back and forth their entire careers. Gunnar and Carroll are on that same path. Arizona pushed Carroll all the way up to Double-A to start the year and he responded with pure across the board domination (166 wRC+ with 20 steals in 58 games). Triple-A didn’t slow him down much at all (135 wRC+ with 11 steals in 33 games), and then last but certainly not least, he kept it going in the majors, slashing .260/.330/.500 with 4 steals, 2 homers, and a 27%/7% K%/BB% in 32 games. He’s the fastest man in baseball with a 30.7 ft/sec sprint speed. His 85.8 MPH EV and .293 xwOBA isn’t optimal, and it’s the reason I have Gunnar as the #1 prospect in baseball, but I wouldn’t harp on that too much considering the guy literally had only 42 professional games under his belt coming into this year. Carroll is setting up to be an elite fantasy player. 2023 Projection: 81/18/65/.256/.332/.430/24 Prime Projection: 103/23/82/.276/.362/.474/33

3) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.1 – Chourio is on that Acuna/Tatis superstar path, where they didn’t necessarily put up elite plate approach numbers on the come up, but they were so young for the level and the talent is so huge it doesn’t really matter. Chourio had a generational type season, making it all the way to Double-A as an 18 year old to close out the year. Milwaukee knew they had something special, skipping him right over stateside rookie ball, and they were proven right with him destroying Single-A with a 160 wRC+. He then went to High-A and actually improved his K% with it dropping 6.2 percentage points to 21.8%. He got eaten up in 6 games at Double-A with a 42.3% K%, but I wouldn’t even blink an eye at that. He’s an electric ballplayer with a lightning quick, powerful swing to go along with at least plus speed. Now is the time in a superstar’s career where dynasty mistakes are made. Don’t sell Chourio for anything less than an elite return. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 98/29/96/.276/.351/.502/16

4) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.3 – Elly De La Cruz might still be a high risk, high reward prospect, but in 2022 the risk got a whole lot less, and the reward got a whole lot more. He put up one of the those stupid good seasons in the minors, slashing .304/.359/.586 with 28 homers, 47 steals, and a 30.8%/7.8% K%/BB% in 120 games split between High-A and Double-A. He ripped up both levels, and most importantly, he didn’t let his K% skyrocket at Double-A. He’s currently playing in the pitcher’s haven Dominican Winter League, which is a grown man’s league (he’s about 8 years younger than average), and it’s great sign that he’s running a 26.7%/15.8% K%/BB% in 101 PA. It sure seems like he will be able to continue to improve the plate approach rather than it going in the opposite direction. The numbers he can potentially put up at Great American Ballpark are scary. 2023 Projection: 32/11/35/.232/.294/.433/12 Prime Projection: 87/30/98/.250/.331/.503/30

5) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 21.11 – Volpe got off to a rough start at Double-A with a .647 OPS and 24% K% in his first 37 games, but he came alive after that, slashing .286/.374/.536 with 13 homers, 26 steals, and a 14.4%/10.7% K%/BB% in 72 games. He does it all with a mature plate approach, plus game power, and plus stolen base ability. Despite the 17.7% K% at Double-A on the season, he still hit only .251 because of an extreme 56.9% flyball percentage. If the balls stay dead, it could be an issue because he isn’t a huge raw power guy at 5’11”, 180 pounds. He also struggled when he got the call to Triple-A with his K% spiking to 30.3%, and putting up a 91 wRC+ in 22 games. The profile isn’t flawless, but he has a super fantasy friendly skillset, and he was a 21 year old in the upper minors, so further refinement is surely coming. 2023 Projection: 38/10/35/.236/.316/.421/12 Prime Projection: 89/26/88/.267/.341/.473/21

6) Jordan Walker STL, 3B/OF, 20.11 – Nobody smashes the ball as hard as the 6’5”, 220 pound Walker. One thing we don’t have to worry about is him getting to the majors and putting up like an 84 MPH EV. He’s gonna hit it hard. He was a 20 year old at Double-A and ripped 19 homers with 31 doubles in 119 games, good for a 128 wRC+. He then wrecked the AFL with 5 homers, 6 doubles, and a .925 OPS in 21 games. He has some swing and miss in his game, but it’s far from the danger zone with a 21.6%/10.8% K%/BB%, and he has plus speed with 22 steals, although considering his size, you might not want to count on him majorly in that category. He started to transition to the OF, which gives him a path to playing time with Arenado locked in at 3B. 2023 Projection: 42/12/47/.251/.326/.461/7 Prime Projection: 92/33/105/.267/.346/.513/12

7) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 20.8 – Lawlar left everyone from his 2021 FYPD class in the dust in 2022. He slashed .303/.401/.509 with 16 homers, 39 steals, and a 25.1%/12.4% K%/BB% in 100 games split between 3 levels (A, A+, AA). He only had a 65 wRC+ in 20 games at Double-A but he jacked 4 homers and his plate approach didn’t completely collapse or anything (28.9%/10.3%). It was impressive he made it all the way to Double-A at all. He then destroyed the AFL with a .997 OPS in 11 games. He has a smooth and simple righty swing that is geared for power and average to go along with plus speed. He’s an elite prospect. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 92/24/86/.270/.348/.470/26

8) James Wood WAS, OF, 20.6 – Wood was one of my top 2022 FYPD targets and I was able to scoop him in my 18 team First Year Player Draft that I broke down last off-season on Patreon. He surpassed even my expectations as he played like a man amongst boys at 6’7”, 240 pounds, slashing .313/.420/.536 with 12 homers, 20 steals, and a 21.6%/14.4% K%/BB% in 76 games at Single-A. He absolutely smashes the ball and he proved his hit tool isn’t a major red flag, to say the least, it might actually be an asset. Wood is a unicorn athlete in the mold of an Aaron Judge and Oneil Cruz. He’s in the “untouchable” category for me. I’m not trading him. ETA: 2024/25 Prime Projection: 88/28/93/.262/.355/.513/14

9) Miguel Vargas LAD, 3B, 23.4 – Vargas made his MLB debut in 2022 and while he only put up a .455 OPS in 50 PA, there is nothing I love more than seeing rookies hit the ball hard. He had a well above average 89.7/94.1 MPH AVG/FB EV. He’s also much faster than advertised with a 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed which in the top 6% of the league. He had no trouble lifting the ball with a 25.7 degree launch angle and has no swing and miss issues with an average 24.3% whiff%. His elite plate approach at Triple-A (14.6%/13.7% K%/BB%) shows better days are likely ahead there too. Speaking of Triple-A, he slashed .304/.304/.511 with 17 homers and 16 steals in 113 games. He’s currently the favorite to be LA’s starting 3B in 2023, and the numbers indicate this guy has star potential. 2023 Projection: 72/21/75/.258/.327/.445/11 Prime Projection: 93/27/87/.272/.345/.483/15

10) Zac Veen COL, OF, 21.4 – It’s a mistake to think more power isn’t coming for Veen. And maybe a lot more. He’s a skinny 6’4” with an explosive lefty swing that is a thing of beauty. He’s guaranteed to put up legit power numbers when he grows into his frame. It reminds me of what I predicted in February 2022 about my #9 prospect, Miguel Vargas, when people were fading him because of his low EV numbers in my Predicting the 2023 Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects: “Vargas’ exit velocity numbers will increase, and the hardhit data will catch up to the surface power numbers, rather than the other way around. I’m hesitant to cap a young prospects power potential just because they don’t put up grown man exit velocities in the minors. It’s almost like people forgot power is often the last thing to come for prospects, especially ones who don’t sell out for it and have really strong contact numbers and plate approaches.” Vargas EV numbers looked damn good in his MLB debut this year. The power is coming for Veen too, and when it does, it will be combined with plus speed and a strong plate approach. That is star potential playing at Coors Field. He did struggle in his callup to Double-A (42 wRC+ with a 29.8% K% in 34 games) after handling his business at High-A (126 wRC+ with a 22.5%/12.% K%/BB% and 50 steals in 92 games), but a ton of super talented 20 year olds struggled considerably at Double-A this year, so I wouldn’t let it completely tank your opinion of him. There is still more work to be done, but I’m willing to stay patient for it, and it creates a buying opportunity this off-season that will likely disappear very quickly into 2023. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 93/28/91/.273/.345/.492/17

11) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.2 – It felt like everyone was just waiting for Dominguez to fail, the ole build em up so we can tear em down, but Dominguez refused to blink. He’s now officially living up to the hype with a big 2022, slashing .273/.376/.461 with 16 homers, 37 steals, and a 24.2%/13.6% K%/BB% in 120 games mostly at Single-A and High-A. He actually performed better at High-A with a 146 wRC+ and 18.5% K%, and he even made it Double-A for 5 games and wasn’t overmatched with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 5/3 K/BB (despite a .467 OPS). His tools are still big and back up the numbers with plus speed and plus power. If he keeps this up at Double-A as a 20 year old, he’ll be in the mix for #1 fantasy prospect in the game very quickly into 2023. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/28/93/.261/.345/.491/18

12) Druw Jones ARI, OF, 19.4 – Selected 2nd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Jones has that classic tall and projectable build that screams upside, and he has elite bloodlines with Andruw Jones being his father. He has near elite speed (6.31 60 yard dash) and truly elite bat speed (99.42 percentile-besting some marks put up by bat speed monster Harry Ford last year). His power has also exploded this year, with him launching some homers that blew up on Twitter (Will Hoefer). He hurt his shoulder during BP before he was able to debut and underwent surgery to repair it, but I dropped Lawlar from the #1 slot in my first year player draft rankings last year after his shoulder injury, and I’m not making the same mistake with Jones ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 93/30/104/.274/.355/.515/20

13) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.4 – Baseball is starting to feel like it is a hereditary monarchy, where all star games are passed down based on bloodlines like it’s the 1300’s. Jackson is the son of Matt, commander of the Armies of the North, General of the Felix Legions and loyal servant to the true emperor, Marcus Aurelius. Father to a murdered son. Husband to a murdered wife. And I will have my vengeance, in this life or the ne … my bad, lost myself there 🙂 … Like many plus bloodline kids, Jackson is an advanced hitter, and he combines that with plus athleticism and a plus power/speed combo. He truly wields the bat like it’s a samurai sword, gracefully killing the ball with a smooth and powerful lefty swing. He stepped right into pro ball and was far too advanced for rookie ball (220 wRC+ with a 6.1%/30.3% K%/BB% in 8 rookie ball games) before performing well in 12 games at Single-A (130 wRC+ with a 17.5%/26.3% K%/BB%). Druw Jones and Holliday are in a tier of their own on my First Year Player Draft Rankings. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 96/25/88/.278/.357/.491/14

14) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 23.5 – Rodriguez is my #1 pitching prospect in baseball and is a good bet to break camp with the team. He really shouldn’t be considered a prospect anymore. He should have graduated. But he did what pitching prospects do and missed 3 months with a lat strain. He was a bit rusty when he returned in September with a 4.12 ERA and 29/14 K/BB in 19.2 IP. He had a 2.09 ERA with a 80/14 K/BB in 56 IP at Triple-A before going down with the injury. When completely healthy he has plus control of a devastating 4 pitch mix, all of which have the potential to be at least plus. It’s true ace upside.  2023 Projection: 10/3.73/1.22/161 in 150 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.15/1.05/240 in 200 IP

15) Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 19.5 – In a Mock First Year Player Draft last off-season for Baseball Prospectus, I drafted Andrew Painter 21st overall and wrote, “I generally lean toward hitting prospects in dynasty, but I’m not afraid to take a shot on a couple of pitchers. Painter is a big dude who checks a lot of boxes. My plan is to sell him when he hits his peak on prospect lists, and before he goes all Forrest Whitley on us at Triple-A” … but now that Painter has hit his peak on prospect lists, it’s so damn hard to sell. It’s so easy to fall in love with pitching prospects, but some do actually stay healthy and pan out, right? Painter seems like he is going to be one of those that do. He had a silly pitching line of 1.56/0.89/155/25 in 103.2 IP spread across 3 levels (A, A+, AA). He’s 6’7”, 215 pounds with plus control of an upper 90’s fastball, plus slider, potentially plus change, and an average curve. He just seems can’t miss … but if he does miss, my 2021/22 off-season self will just be shaking his head and laughing at me. 2023 Projection: 4/3.79/1.24/63 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.18/1.06/235 in 200 IP

16) Eury Perez MIA, RHP, 20.0 – Perez is a tall drink of water at 6’8”, 220 pounds (interestingly, or not so interestingly, “tall drink of water” was originally used as a derogatory term for a flavorless weakling, but mysteriously evolved into a compliment in the mid 1900’s), and he uses that frame to fire a mid to upper 90’s fastball with an easy, athletic delivery. He combines that with 3 potentially plus secondaries in his changeup, curve, and slider, to go along with plus control. It’s a flawless profile. The production is there too with a 34.1%/8.1% K%/BB% in 75 IP as a 19 year old at Double-A. A rough patch at the end of July (10.64 ERA in 11 IP) marred his end of season ERA at the level (4.08), and it resulted in him hitting the IL with a shoulder issue that kept him out until mid September. It’s a reminder of how risky all pitching prospects are, no matter how can’t miss they seem. 2023 Projection: 3/3.85/1.23/47 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.26/1.08/210 in 180 IP

17) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 20.8 – Tiedemann checks almost every box for a potential young ace. He has prototypical size at 6’4”, 220 pounds, with a nearly side arm lefty delivery that he uses to fire a mid 90’s fastball and 2 devastating secondaries in his slider and change. Minor league hitters had no chance. He put up a pitching line of 2.17/0.86/117/29 in 78.2 IP split across 3 levels (A, A+, AA). Maybe the only quibble is that he doesn’t have pinpoint control, but it’s not an issue or anything. He’s the top lefty pitching prospect in the game, and considering Toronto’s relatively depleted organizational pitching depth, don’t be surprised if he gets a ton of MLB innings in 2023.. 2023 Projection: 3/3.88/1.29/54 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.31/1.11/220 in 190 IP

18) Shane Baz TBR, RHP, 23.10 – Baz underwent Tommy John surgery in late September and will miss all of 2023. His elbow problems started in Spring when he underwent arthroscopic surgery. He was able to make it back for a month in June-July, and the stuff was still huge, but he eventually succumbed to the Tommy John. Like Buehler, I would optimally wait until next off-season to target him, but if you’re a rebuilding team he’s a great target. 2023 Projection: OUT Prime Projection: 13/3.38/1.09/198 in 170 IP

19) Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 21.4 – Alvarez is a 5’10”, 233 pound ball of muscle who walloped 27 homers in 112 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He then got a cup of coffee, or more like a sip of coffee in the majors and it took him only 14 PA to get his first MLB dinger. He had a 101.5 MPH FB/LD EV in that obviously very small sample, but it drives home the point that Alvarez has near elite power potential, especially for a catcher. He has some swing and miss in his game (24.8% K%), but he’s an OBP machine with a 14.1% BB%. Adley is the darling of the catcher world right now, but Alvarez’s superior over the fence power could easily make him the more valuable catcher not too far into the future. The Mets starting catcher job is wide open for the taking at the moment, but it seems they want him to get more defensive seasoning before handing the reins over to him. 2023 Projection: 47/20/61/.240/.331/.457/2 Prime Projection: 84/33/96/.254/.361/.520/3

20) Daniel Espino CLE, RHP, 22.3 – Espino was on his way to an insane season before falling off the face of the earth. He had a 2.45 ERA with a 35/4 K/BB in 18.1 IP at Double-A in April and then he never pitched again. It started as a knee issue and then turned into a shoulder issue too. Cleveland has kept the injury information very close to the vest so it’s unclear how serious the injuries are, but it was obviously serious enough that it ended his season. The stuff is so nasty with a 5 pitch mix led by an upper 90’s fastball and plus slider, that I would hesitate to sell low on him based on the mysterious injury risk. He has the upside to be a true fantasy ace and he’s knocking on the door of the bigs. Give me all the risk. 2023 Projection: 3/3.83/1.30/65 in 60 IP Prime Projection:  13/3.41/1.19/195 in 165 IP

21) Ezequiel Tovar COL, SS, 21.8 – In yet another testament to Colorado’s odd prospect developmental strategy, to put it nicely, Tovar went down with a hip/groin injury on June 29th at Double-A, and Colorado decided it would be best to have him return directly to Triple-A on September 15th before rushing him to the majors after just 5 games at that level. It’s almost as if they had a preset plan for Tovar’s season which they didn’t adjust at all based on what was actually happening. Regardless, Tovar is a good enough prospect to overcome Colorado’s brain trust. He’s not the type to jump off the screen, but he has a plus hit tool with developing power and base stealing skills. He slashed .319/.387/.540 with 14 homers, 17 steals, and a 66/27 K/BB in 71 games at mostly Double-A. I’m not sure the power/speed numbers will pop as much in the majors, but Coors should juice his best skill, batting average, and the SS job is his for the taking. 2023 Projection: 72/16/64/.261/.317/.402/13 Prime Projection: 86/22/71/.278/.332/.434/15

22) Kyle Manzardo TBR, 1B, 22.9 – I nicknamed Manzardo “Italian Lunch” in my in-season Dynasty Rundowns for a reason, because if you liked Italian Breakfast (Vinnie P), you’re going to love the next Italian meal (Manzardo). Like Vinnie, Manzardo has an elite plate approach with plus power. He slashed .327/.426/.617 with 22 homers and a 65/59 K/BB in 93 games split between High-A and Double-A. He barely dropped off at Double-A with 9 homers and a 148 wRC+ in 30 games. His path to playing time isn’t crystal clear with Tampa’s never ending depth (Aranda, Mead, and more), but that’s just the game with Tampa. If he produces when he gets his shot, they will find a spot for him. 2023 Projection: 19/5/23/.268/.334/.447/0 Prime Projection: 86/27/91/.281/.363/.488/1

23) Royce Lewis MIN, SS, 23.10 – I named Lewis a to player target last off-season, imploring you to buy the dip coming off a torn ACL. Now it’s deja vu all over again with Lewis once again down with a torn ACL, and once again I’m imploring you to buy the dip. He was in the midst of fully living up to his 1st pick overall hype, majorly improving his plate approach with a 20.9%/11.8% K%/BB% in 34 games at Triple-A. His power took a step forward as well with 5 homers and he maintained his plus speed with 12 steals. He quickly got called up to the majors and impressed with a 90.7 MPH EV, 12.2% K% and 146 wRC+ in 41 PA before going down with the injury in late May. I can’t deny that a 2nd torn ACL in the same knee is concerning, but Lewis has youth, and athleticism to spare on his side. He was blowing up to such a high level that I think downgrading Lewis too much based on the injury risk would be a mistake. 2023 Projection: 33/8/28/.258/.319/.423/5 Prime Projection: 84/24/82/.273/.335/.463/13

24) Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 23.3 – Casas is an OBP machine. He has a career .374 OBP in 284 minor league games and then he put up a .358 OBP with a 20% BB% in his 95 PA MLB debut. In an OBP league, he has a chance to be a real difference maker. It’s not so cut and dry in a 5×5 BA league. He’s never hit for high BA’s in the minors (career .269 BA) and he hit .197 (.193 xBA) in the majors. He’s a huge man with huge raw power, but he’s never really put up monster home run totals (11 homers in 72 Triple-A games). He doesn’t sell out for power. Boston’s hitter’s park should juice up all of his numbers, and I like Casas a lot regardless of league type, but I might curb your enthusiasm a little bit in a 5×5 BA. 2023 Projection: 78/24/81/.249/.334/.462/1 Prime Projection: 89/29/94/.263/.368/.510/2

25) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.0 – Armstrong had the power breakout I predicted in my Predicting the 2023 Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects from last off-season, writing, “Armstrong will not only pick up where he left off before he underwent shoulder surgery, he will show power potential many people doubt he has.” He ended up jacking 16 homers in 101 games split between Single-A and High-A. His speed wasn’t undersold either as he nabbed 32 bases. His plus CF defense will get him on the field, he has a good feel to hit, plus speed, and developing power. That is a beautiful fantasy profile. He’s not a finished product as his plate approach took a step back at the more age appropriate High-A with a mediocre 24%/4.9% K%/BB% in 63 games, but he could explode to elite prospect status if he performs in the upper minors in 2023. There is still a small buy window. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/18/66/.273/.335/.431/26

26) Hunter Brown HOU, RHP, 24.8 – Houston still has a full rotation even with Verlander leaving, but Brown will inevitably get his shot eventually, and I have no doubt he will thrive when he does. He throws a 96.6 MPH fastball that put up a .167 BA against in his 20.1 IP MLB debut, to go along with a plus slider (.246 xwOBA) and curve (.167 xwOBA). It led to a 0.89 ERA and 22/7 K/BB. He dominated at Triple-A too with a 2.55 ERA and 31.5%/10.6% K%/BB% in 106 IP. He’s likely a mid rotation fantasy starter as is, and if he can improve his control and/or his splitter/changeup, he has legitimate top of the rotation upside, especially in Houston’s pitching factory. He’s a major off-season target as he doesn’t get the hype that other top pitching prospects receive. 2023 Projection: 6/3.85/1.28/95 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.55/1.23/190 in 175 IP

27) Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 24.0 – Miller is 6’5”, 220 pounds with ace level stuff. He throws a fastball that sits in the upper 90’s, a filthy upper 80’s MPH changeup that gets about 10 MPH separation from the fastball, and 2 plus breaking balls in his slider and curve. His 4.25 ERA in 112.1 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A was surprisingly underwhelming considering the stuff. Part of it is because his fastball is relatively hittable, and while he doesn’t have major control problems, he’s no Greg Maddux. The other part of it is likely bad luck as his 30.5%/8.1% K%/BB% and 3.47 xFIP at Double-A looks much better than the 4.45 ERA he put up at the level. He has ace upside, and with the Dodgers’ pitching development prowess, mid-rotation might be his floor. 2023 Projection: 5/3.85/1.26/82 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.48/1.18/202 in 180 IP

28) Curtis Mead TBR, 3B, 22.6 – Mead is a safe bet to be a very good MLB hitter, but there are a few snafu’s keeping me from going too crazy for him. He’s not a good defensive player, which could be a problem with Tampa’s never ending depth. He’s not a huge base stealer and he has a line drive approach, so he might not put up huge power/speed numbers. His season also ended with a sore elbow, which I wouldn’t be too concerned about, but it is one more thing to tack on. I don’t mean to sound the alarm bells, because I do like him a ton. He hits the ball very hard, he has an excellent plate approach with an 18.1%/10.9% K%/BB%, and he crushed the upper minors with a 146 wRC+ at Double-A and 129 wRC+ at Triple-A. Carlos Correa over the last few years could be a good ceiling comp offensively. 2023 Projection: 26/7/29/.265/.327/.433/2 Prime Projection: 91/24/86/.282/.351/.473/5

29) Noelvi Marte CIN, SS, 21.5 – There is nothing scouts hate more than when players start to fill out before they want them to fill out, and I think scouts overestimate their ability to predict when players will lose their athleticism in general. Having said that, Marte filled out in 2022 and he’s definitely starting to look more like a thick, power hitting corner infielder than a wiry strong SS. It’s going to hurt his ranking on real life lists, but I would be careful about discounting him too much for fantasy. He has big time power (19 homers in 115 games at High-A), speed (23 steals), and while his hit tool isn’t great, he has a strong plate approach (20.1%/11.3% K%/BB%). He’s not a finished product, and I wouldn’t expect huge steal totals, but he can be mighty dangerous in the friendly confines of Great American Ballpark. He wouldn’t be untouchable for me (I recently traded him away in my 12 teamer for Cristian Javier), but I would need a very exciting win now piece to deal him. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 84/27/89/.263/.338/.484/12

30) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 20.4 – One look at Mayer’s controlled and explosive lefty swing really says it all. He used that swing to dominate Single-A in every facet of the game (150 wRC+ in 66 games), and then mostly did the same to close out the season at High-A (127 wRC+ in 25 games). His 25.2% K% is maybe slightly higher than you would like to see, but he mitigated that with a 16% BB%, and he was also a perfect 17 for 17 on the bases. He’s not a burner, but with the new stolen bases rules coming to the majors, maybe he’ll be able to nab more than we are expecting. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 94/25/87/.271/.363/.484/10

31) Oswald Peraza NYY, SS/2B, 22.10 – Like Volpe, Peraza started the year cold with a .583 OPS and 25.6% in his first 46 games at Triple-A before turning it around. He slashed .316/.382/.560 with 14 homers, 22 steals, and a 21.4% K% in his final 53 games at the level. He got called up to the majors in September and thrived, slashing .306/.404/.429 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 15.8%/10.5% K%/BB% in 57 PA. Statcast backs up the numbers with a well above average .343 xwOBA and 28.9 ft/sec sprint speed. The one red flag is his 81.6/84.0 MPH AVG/FB EV. That is quite low on 40 batted balls. It’s a small sample and he obviously has more power than that, but the power numbers he put up in the minors in 2021-22 could be misleading for what he will do in the majors. 2023 Projection: 58/14/59/.246/.303/.400/16 Prime Projection: 81/21/77/.269/.327/.441/22

32) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.7 – Carter was chugging along with a very good season at High-A, slashing .287/.388/.476 with 11 homers, 26 steals, and a 16.8%/13.2% K%/BB% in 100 games, and then he closed out the year with a bang at Double-A, slashing .429/.536/.714 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 6/5 K/BB in 6 games. His elite plate approach is made even more impressive by how  young he has been at every level he’s played at. He has plus speed, and at 6’4”, 190 pounds, he should naturally grow into more power, although his short and quick lefty swing is geared more for line drives. He could be a difference maker in OBP leagues, and in 5×5 BA he’s setting up to be a solid across the board type. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 89/20/77/.276/.365/.449/15

33) Emmanuel Rodriguez MIN, OF, 20.1 – I nicknamed Rodriguez Baby Bonds in the early season Dynasty Baseball Rundowns for a reason. He’s an OBP monster with a 28.6% BB% and .492 OBP, to go along with a plus power (9 homers) and speed (11 steals) in 49 games at Single-A. Granted he doesn’t have nearly Bonds’ hit tool with a 26.1% K%, but 3 outta 4 ain’t bad. In an OBP league, I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say he has elite upside. His season ended early when he tore his meniscus sliding into a base, but in my professional opinion a meniscus tear isn’t as bad as an ACL tear. I wouldn’t let the injury scare you off him too much. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 88/26/82/.251/.357/.485/12

34) Tink Hence STL, RHP, 20.8 – Say hello to the 2024 top pitching prospect in baseball. Hence was treated with kid gloves in 2022, never going over 4 IP, but he checked literally every other box. His stuff is straight filthy with 4 potentially plus pitches (mid 90’s fastball, curve, slider, change), he has an extremely athletic delivery with insane arm speed that reminds me a bit of Pedro Martinez, and his numbers were lights out with a pitching line of 2.16/0.96/81/15 in 52.1 IP at Single-A. He’s certainly getting plenty of hype right now, but it’s going to look like nothing compared to the hype explosion that’s coming in 2023. I was just able to nab him at 44th overall in the Toolshed Prospect Mock with other prospect writers/podcasters, so I think his price could still be relatively reasonable this off-season. He’s a buy high. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 14/3.29/1.09/205 in 180 IP

35) Kyle Harrison SFG, LHP, 21.8 – Harrison is almost guaranteed to be an impact fantasy starter because this guy is going to rack up K’s no matter what. He had a stupid 50% K% in 29 IP at High-A (1.55 ERA) and a 36.4% K% in 84 IP at Double-A (3.11 ERA) on the back of an elite fastball/slider combo from a 3 quarters lefty delivery. He mixes in a legitimate changeup as well. The only question is how high his WHIP will get on the MLB level, because his control is still knocking on the door of the danger zone with an 11.2% BB% at Double-A. It’s not so bad to get very concerned, but it’s bad enough to keep him from ascending to the true elite pitching prospect tier. From a numbers standpoint, Blake Snell is not the worst comp. 2023 Projection: 3/3.88/1.33/34 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.41/1.25/191 in 165 IP

36) Josh Jung TEX, 3B, 25.2 – Jung returned from shoulder surgery in late July and he must have been rusty because his plate approach was uncharacteristically horrific. He put up a 28.3%/3.8% K%/BB% in 23 games at Triple-A and a 38.2%/3.9% K%/BB% in 26 games in his MLB debut. It’s so out of pocket from the rest of his career. He had a 22.2%/9.1% K%/BB% in 78 games in the upper minors in 2021, so I’m inclined to cut him some slack. Shoulder injuries can sometimes sap power, but he was just fine in that category, jacking 9 homers in 31 minor league games and 5 homers in 26 MLB games. His 85.5 MPH EV and .287 xwOBA wasn’t great, but there was no guarantee he was even going to play in 2022 considering he underwent surgery in late February, so everything should look much better after a normal off-season and as he gets further away from the injury. 2023 Projection: 70/25/83/.252/.326/.462/3 Prime Projection: 84/29/91/.268/.343/.497/3

37) Brett Baty NYM, 3B, 23.5 – There is little doubt that the 6’3”, 210 pound lefty Baty is going to be a very good real life hitter. He smokes the ball with a 91.1 MPH EV and he has an excellent plate approach with a 24.8%/11.7% K%/BB%, leading to a .943 OPS in 95 games at mostly Double-A. He got called up to the majors and while he only put up a .586 OPS in 11 games, his .332 xwOBA was much better and a 19% K% is a good sign his K% isn’t going to explode. It’s a line drive approach (10 degree launch) with below average speed (26.8 ft/sec sprint), making him a very safe bet to be an impact bat, but likely without monster upside in a 5×5 BA league. He tore the UCL in his thumb in late August which required surgery, but he’ll be good to go for 2023, and with Correa not signing, the path to playing time is much more open now. 2023 Projection: 51/15/54/.253/.332/.440/2 Prime Projection: 84/25/86/.267/.349/.472/2

38) Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 23.0 – Cowser’s hit tool got exposed this year, putting up a 28.4% K% at High-A, 25.4% K% at Double-A, and 30.6% K% at Triple-A. It’s a little concerning considering that was supposed to be his best skill, but it’s not like he’s chopped liver everywhere else. He walked a ton with a 15% BB%, and he displayed an above average power/speed combo with 19 homers and 18 steals in 138 games. Even with the high strikeout rates he still put up a .278 BA. He showed more risk than optimal in 2022, but it was still a positive year overall with a .874 OPS. His strong across the board profile remains intact. 2023 Projection: 20/4/18/.248/.319/.405/4 Prime Projection: 85/20/77/.264/.343/.442/15

39) Robert Hassell WAS, OF, 21.8 – Hassell is becoming quite the divisive prospect, and it all comes down to his upside. His groundball rates were over 50% and he hit only 11 homers in 112 games split between High-A and Double-A. He’s fast, but he’s not an absolute burner, stealing only 1 bag in 27 games at Double-A (23 steals in 85 games at High-A). He has a potentially plus hit tool, and while a 19.9% K% at High-A is good, it’s not close to being elite, and it jumped to 28.7% at Double-A. He doesn’t have that one truly impressive tool. Having said that, the guy is just a damn good all around ballplayer, and there is still room to pack on muscle to his 6’2” frame. You don’t have to squint all that hard to see a future where he goes 20/20 with a good BA and high OBP hitting atop Washington’s lineup. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 87/18/72/.273/.348/.425/18

40) Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 22.0 – Bradley is a similar pitching prospect to what Logan Gilbert and George Kirby were. He heavily relies on an at least plus, mid 90’s fastball which he has plus control over, but the secondaries aren’t really standout. He’s also not as big as Gilbert and Kirby, which I don’t like to harp on, but it does factor in. He destroyed Double-A with a 1.70 ERA and 88/18 K/BB in 74.1 IP before taking a small step back at Triple-A with a 3.66 ERA and 53/15 K/BB in 59 IP. If his secondaries take a big jump, he can be a fantasy ace, but he’s more likely to settle into that 2/3 area. 2023 Projection: 3/3.83/1.23/47 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.41/1.08/176 in 170 IP

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2023 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS (coming tomorrow or Monday at the latest)
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS w/ Strategy & Target Guide
-All-In-One Rankings Spreadsheet
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 305 SP//Top 282 OF//Top 151 SS//Top 115 3B//Top 105 2B//Top 95 1B//TOP 68 C//Top 64 RP
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-DYNASTY TEAM REPORTS FOR EVERY TEAM (Top 10+ Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
-UPCOMING: Position by Position Target Series, Top 600 OBP Rankings, Top 600 Points/6+Cats/OPS “Universal” Rankings, Predicting the 2024 Top 50 Prospects Rankings that doubles as a Bold Predictions article, and much more

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 100 Prospects Rankings for 2023 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues

The 2023 Top 500 Prospects Rankings will drop in a week or two over on Patreon (released for free on IBW in mid to late March), but I love to put out the traditional Top 100 first. These rankings are for medium size, 5×5 BA dynasty leagues. Here are the Top 100 Prospects Rankings for 2023 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THIS ARTICLE & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE & EARLY ACCESS CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 323 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS w/ Strategy & Target Guide
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 282 OF//Top 151 SS//Top 115 3B//Top 105 2B//Top 95 1B//TOP 68 C
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-DYNASTY TEAM REPORTS FOR EVERY TEAM (Top 10+ Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

1) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 21.9 – Nothing makes me more comfortable about a prospect than one who gets called up to the majors and immediately puts up elite exit velocity numbers. Henderson smacked the crap outta the ball to the tune of a 92.4/98.1 MPH AVG/FB EV in 132 MLB PA. That would almost be enough for me to love love a player on it’s own, a la Oneil Cruz, but Henderson does just about everything else well too. His hit tool improved majorly this year, dropping his K% from 30.1% in 2021 in mostly the lower minors, to 23.1% in 2022 in the upper minors. The improvements transferred to the majors with a very reasonable 26.6% whiff% and 25.8% K%. He’s put up high walk rates his entire career and he’s also very fast with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. He’s almost a flawless prospect. I say “almost,” because he’s struggled vs. lefties in his career, but he’s still very young, so improvement is almost certainly coming, and it’s also a testament to how badly he decimates righties. 2023 Projection: 82/25/85/.262/.347/.473/14 Prime Projection: 106/32/102/.278/.383/.518/16

2) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.7 – Gunnar vs. Carroll is like Witt vs. Julio all over again. Julio pulled into the clear lead this year, but you were happy with either and their values could swing back and forth their entire careers. Gunnar and Carroll are on that same path. Arizona pushed Carroll all the way up to Double-A to start the year and he responded with pure across the board domination (166 wRC+ with 20 steals in 58 games). Triple-A didn’t slow him down much at all (135 wRC+ with 11 steals in 33 games), and then last but certainly not least, he kept it going in the majors, slashing .260/.330/.500 with 4 steals, 2 homers, and a 27%/7% K%/BB% in 32 games. He’s the fastest man in baseball with a 30.7 ft/sec sprint speed. His 85.8 MPH EV and .293 xwOBA isn’t optimal, and it’s the reason I have Gunnar as the #1 prospect in baseball, but I wouldn’t harp on that too much considering the guy literally had only 42 professional games under his belt coming into this year. Carroll is setting up to be an elite fantasy player. 2023 Projection: 81/18/65/.256/.332/.430/24 Prime Projection: 103/23/82/.276/.362/.474/33

3) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.1 – Chourio is on that Acuna/Tatis superstar path, where they didn’t necessarily put up elite plate approach numbers on the come up, but they were so young for the level and the talent is so huge it doesn’t really matter. Chourio had a generational type season, making it all the way to Double-A as an 18 year old to close out the year. Milwaukee knew they had something special, skipping him right over stateside rookie ball, and they were proven right with him destroying Single-A with a 160 wRC+. He then went to High-A and actually improved his K% with it dropping 6.2 percentage points to 21.8%. He got eaten up in 6 games at Double-A with a 42.3% K%, but I wouldn’t even blink an eye at that. He’s an electric ballplayer with a lightning quick, powerful swing to go along with at least plus speed. Now is the time in a superstar’s career where dynasty mistakes are made. Don’t sell Chourio for anything less than an elite return. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 98/29/96/.276/.351/.502/16

4) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.3 – Elly De La Cruz might still be a high risk, high reward prospect, but in 2022 the risk got a whole lot less, and the reward got a whole lot more. He put up one of the those stupid good seasons in the minors, slashing .304/.359/.586 with 28 homers, 47 steals, and a 30.8%/7.8% K%/BB% in 120 games split between High-A and Double-A. He ripped up both levels, and most importantly, he didn’t let his K% skyrocket at Double-A. He’s currently playing in the pitcher’s haven Dominican Winter League, which is a grown man’s league (he’s about 8 years younger than average), and it’s great sign that he’s running a 26.7%/15.8% K%/BB% in 101 PA. It sure seems like he will be able to continue to improve the plate approach rather than it going in the opposite direction. The numbers he can potentially put up at Great American Ballpark are scary. 2023 Projection: 32/11/35/.232/.294/.433/12 Prime Projection: 87/30/98/.250/.331/.503/30

5) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 21.11 – Volpe got off to a rough start at Double-A with a .647 OPS and 24% K% in his first 37 games, but he came alive after that, slashing .286/.374/.536 with 13 homers, 26 steals, and a 14.4%/10.7% K%/BB% in 72 games. He does it all with a mature plate approach, plus game power, and plus stolen base ability. Despite the 17.7% K% at Double-A on the season, he still hit only .251 because of an extreme 56.9% flyball percentage. If the balls stay dead, it could be an issue because he isn’t a huge raw power guy at 5’11”, 180 pounds. He also struggled when he got the call to Triple-A with his K% spiking to 30.3%, and putting up a 91 wRC+ in 22 games. The profile isn’t flawless, but he has a super fantasy friendly skillset, and he was a 21 year old in the upper minors, so further refinement is surely coming. 2023 Projection: 38/10/35/.236/.316/.421/12 Prime Projection: 89/26/88/.267/.341/.473/21

6) Jordan Walker STL, 3B/OF, 20.11 – Nobody smashes the ball as hard as the 6’5”, 220 pound Walker. One thing we don’t have to worry about is him getting to the majors and putting up like an 84 MPH EV. He’s gonna hit it hard. He was a 20 year old at Double-A and ripped 19 homers with 31 doubles in 119 games, good for a 128 wRC+. He then wrecked the AFL with 5 homers, 6 doubles, and a .925 OPS in 21 games. He has some swing and miss in his game, but it’s far from the danger zone with a 21.6%/10.8% K%/BB%, and he has plus speed with 22 steals, although considering his size, you might not want to count on him majorly in that category. He started to transition to the OF, which gives him a path to playing time with Arenado locked in at 3B. 2023 Projection: 42/12/47/.251/.326/.461/7 Prime Projection: 92/33/105/.267/.346/.513/12

7) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 20.8 – Lawlar left everyone from his 2021 FYPD class in the dust in 2022. He slashed .303/.401/.509 with 16 homers, 39 steals, and a 25.1%/12.4% K%/BB% in 100 games split between 3 levels (A, A+, AA). He only had a 65 wRC+ in 20 games at Double-A but he jacked 4 homers and his plate approach didn’t completely collapse or anything (28.9%/10.3%). It was impressive he made it all the way to Double-A at all. He then destroyed the AFL with a .997 OPS in 11 games. He has a smooth and simple righty swing that is geared for power and average to go along with plus speed. He’s an elite prospect. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 92/24/86/.270/.348/.470/26

8) James Wood WAS, OF, 20.6 – Wood was one of my top 2022 FYPD targets and I was able to scoop him in my 18 team First Year Player Draft that I broke down last off-season on Patreon. He surpassed even my expectations as he played like a man amongst boys at 6’7”, 240 pounds, slashing .313/.420/.536 with 12 homers, 20 steals, and a 21.6%/14.4% K%/BB% in 76 games at Single-A. He absolutely smashes the ball and he proved his hit tool isn’t a major red flag, to say the least, it might actually be an asset. Wood is a unicorn athlete in the mold of an Aaron Judge and Oneil Cruz. He’s in the “untouchable” category for me. I’m not trading him. ETA: 2024/25 Prime Projection: 88/28/93/.262/.355/.513/14

9) Miguel Vargas LAD, 3B, 23.4 – Vargas made his MLB debut in 2022 and while he only put up a .455 OPS in 50 PA, there is nothing I love more than seeing rookies hit the ball hard. He had a well above average 89.7/94.1 MPH AVG/FB EV. He’s also much faster than advertised with a 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed which in the top 6% of the league. He had no trouble lifting the ball with a 25.7 degree launch angle and has no swing and miss issues with an average 24.3% whiff%. His elite plate approach at Triple-A (14.6%/13.7% K%/BB%) shows better days are likely ahead there too. Speaking of Triple-A, he slashed .304/.304/.511 with 17 homers and 16 steals in 113 games. He’s currently the favorite to be LA’s starting 3B in 2023, and the numbers indicate this guy has star potential. 2023 Projection: 72/21/75/.258/.327/.445/11 Prime Projection: 93/27/87/.272/.345/.483/15

10) Zac Veen COL, OF, 21.4 – It’s a mistake to think more power isn’t coming for Veen. And maybe a lot more. He’s a skinny 6’4” with an explosive lefty swing that is a thing of beauty. He’s guaranteed to put up legit power numbers when he grows into his frame. It reminds me of what I predicted in February 2022 about my #9 prospect, Miguel Vargas, when people were fading him because of his low EV numbers in my Predicting the 2023 Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects: “Vargas’ exit velocity numbers will increase, and the hardhit data will catch up to the surface power numbers, rather than the other way around. I’m hesitant to cap a young prospects power potential just because they don’t put up grown man exit velocities in the minors. It’s almost like people forgot power is often the last thing to come for prospects, especially ones who don’t sell out for it and have really strong contact numbers and plate approaches.” Vargas EV numbers looked damn good in his MLB debut this year. The power is coming for Veen too, and when it does, it will be combined with plus speed and a strong plate approach. That is star potential playing at Coors Field. He did struggle in his callup to Double-A (42 wRC+ with a 29.8% K% in 34 games) after handling his business at High-A (126 wRC+ with a 22.5%/12.% K%/BB% and 50 steals in 92 games), but a ton of super talented 20 year olds struggled considerably at Double-A this year, so I wouldn’t let it completely tank your opinion of him. There is still more work to be done, but I’m willing to stay patient for it, and it creates a buying opportunity this off-season that will likely disappear very quickly into 2023. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 93/28/91/.273/.345/.492/17

11) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.2 – It felt like everyone was just waiting for Dominguez to fail, the ole build em up so we can tear em down, but Dominguez refused to blink. He’s now officially living up to the hype with a big 2022, slashing .273/.376/.461 with 16 homers, 37 steals, and a 24.2%/13.6% K%/BB% in 120 games mostly at Single-A and High-A. He actually performed better at High-A with a 146 wRC+ and 18.5% K%, and he even made it Double-A for 5 games and wasn’t overmatched with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 5/3 K/BB (despite a .467 OPS). His tools are still big and back up the numbers with plus speed and plus power. If he keeps this up at Double-A as a 20 year old, he’ll be in the mix for #1 fantasy prospect in the game very quickly into 2023. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/28/93/.261/.345/.491/18

12) Druw Jones ARI, OF, 19.4 – Selected 2nd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Jones has that classic tall and projectable build that screams upside, and he has elite bloodlines with Andruw Jones being his father. He has near elite speed (6.31 60 yard dash) and truly elite bat speed (99.42 percentile-besting some marks put up by bat speed monster Harry Ford last year). His power has also exploded this year, with him launching some homers that blew up on Twitter (Will Hoefer). He hurt his shoulder during BP before he was able to debut and underwent surgery to repair it, but I dropped Lawlar from the #1 slot in my first year player draft rankings last year after his shoulder injury, and I’m not making the same mistake with Jones ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 93/30/104/.274/.355/.515/20

13) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.4 – Baseball is starting to feel like it is a hereditary monarchy, where all star games are passed down based on bloodlines like it’s the 1300’s. Jackson is the son of Matt, commander of the Armies of the North, General of the Felix Legions and loyal servant to the true emperor, Marcus Aurelius. Father to a murdered son. Husband to a murdered wife. And I will have my vengeance, in this life or the ne … my bad, lost myself there 🙂 … Like many plus bloodline kids, Jackson is an advanced hitter, and he combines that with plus athleticism and a plus power/speed combo. He truly wields the bat like it’s a samurai sword, gracefully killing the ball with a smooth and powerful lefty swing. He stepped right into pro ball and was far too advanced for rookie ball (220 wRC+ with a 6.1%/30.3% K%/BB% in 8 rookie ball games) before performing well in 12 games at Single-A (130 wRC+ with a 17.5%/26.3% K%/BB%). Druw Jones and Holliday are in a tier of their own on my First Year Player Draft Rankings. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 96/25/88/.278/.357/.491/14

14) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 23.5 – Rodriguez is my #1 pitching prospect in baseball and is a good bet to break camp with the team. He really shouldn’t be considered a prospect anymore. He should have graduated. But he did what pitching prospects do and missed 3 months with a lat strain. He was a bit rusty when he returned in September with a 4.12 ERA and 29/14 K/BB in 19.2 IP. He had a 2.09 ERA with a 80/14 K/BB in 56 IP at Triple-A before going down with the injury. When completely healthy he has plus control of a devastating 4 pitch mix, all of which have the potential to be at least plus. It’s true ace upside.  2023 Projection: 10/3.73/1.22/161 in 150 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.15/1.05/240 in 200 IP

15) Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 19.5 – In a Mock First Year Player Draft last off-season for Baseball Prospectus, I drafted Andrew Painter 21st overall and wrote, “I generally lean toward hitting prospects in dynasty, but I’m not afraid to take a shot on a couple of pitchers. Painter is a big dude who checks a lot of boxes. My plan is to sell him when he hits his peak on prospect lists, and before he goes all Forrest Whitley on us at Triple-A” … but now that Painter has hit his peak on prospect lists, it’s so damn hard to sell. It’s so easy to fall in love with pitching prospects, but some do actually stay healthy and pan out, right? Painter seems like he is going to be one of those that do. He had a silly pitching line of 1.56/0.89/155/25 in 103.2 IP spread across 3 levels (A, A+, AA). He’s 6’7”, 215 pounds with plus control of an upper 90’s fastball, plus slider, potentially plus change, and an average curve. He just seems can’t miss … but if he does miss, my 2021/22 off-season self will just be shaking his head and laughing at me. 2023 Projection: 4/3.79/1.24/63 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.18/1.06/235 in 200 IP

16) Eury Perez MIA, RHP, 20.0 – Perez is a tall drink of water at 6’8”, 220 pounds (interestingly, or not so interestingly, “tall drink of water” was originally used as a derogatory term for a flavorless weakling, but mysteriously evolved into a compliment in the mid 1900’s), and he uses that frame to fire a mid to upper 90’s fastball with an easy, athletic delivery. He combines that with 3 potentially plus secondaries in his changeup, curve, and slider, to go along with plus control. It’s a flawless profile. The production is there too with a 34.1%/8.1% K%/BB% in 75 IP as a 19 year old at Double-A. A rough patch at the end of July (10.64 ERA in 11 IP) marred his end of season ERA at the level (4.08), and it resulted in him hitting the IL with a shoulder issue that kept him out until mid September. It’s a reminder of how risky all pitching prospects are, no matter how can’t miss they seem. 2023 Projection: 3/3.85/1.23/47 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.26/1.08/210 in 180 IP

17) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 20.8 – Tiedemann checks almost every box for a potential young ace. He has prototypical size at 6’4”, 220 pounds, with a nearly side arm lefty delivery that he uses to fire a mid 90’s fastball and 2 devastating secondaries in his slider and change. Minor league hitters had no chance. He put up a pitching line of 2.17/0.86/117/29 in 78.2 IP split across 3 levels (A, A+, AA). Maybe the only quibble is that he doesn’t have pinpoint control, but it’s not an issue or anything. He’s the top lefty pitching prospect in the game, and considering Toronto’s relatively depleted organizational pitching depth, don’t be surprised if he gets a ton of MLB innings in 2023.. 2023 Projection: 3/3.88/1.29/54 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.31/1.11/220 in 190 IP

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THIS ARTICLE & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE & EARLY ACCESS CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 323 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS w/ Strategy & Target Guide
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 282 OF//Top 151 SS//Top 115 3B//Top 105 2B//Top 95 1B//TOP 68 C
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-DYNASTY TEAM REPORTS FOR EVERY TEAM (Top 10+ Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Philadelphia Phillies 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Philadelphia Phillies 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10+ Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE & EARLY ACCESS CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 323 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS w/ Strategy & Target Guide
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 282 OF//Top 151 SS//Top 115 3B//Top 105 2B//Top 95 1B//TOP 68 C
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago Cubs (free)—Cincinnati Reds (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Los Angeles Dodgers (free)—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—St. Louis Cardinals (free)—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

Top 10 Philadelphia Phillies Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 19.5 – In a Mock First Year Player Draft last off-season for Baseball Prospectus, I drafted Andrew Painter 21st overall and wrote, “I generally lean toward hitting prospects in dynasty, but I’m not afraid to take a shot on a couple of pitchers. Painter is a big dude who checks a lot of boxes. My plan is to sell him when he hits his peak on prospect lists, and before he goes all Forrest Whitley on us at Triple-A” … but now that Painter has hit his peak on prospect lists, it’s so damn hard to sell. It’s so easy to fall in love with pitching prospects, but some do actually stay healthy and pan out, right?!?! Painter seems like he is going to be one of those that do. He had a silly pitching line of 1.56/0.89/155/25 in 103.2 IP spread across 3 levels (A, A+, AA). He’s 6’7”, 215 pounds with plus control of an upper 90’s fastball, plus slider, potentially plus change, and an average curve. He just seems can’t miss … but if he does miss, my 2021/22 off-season self will just be shaking his head and laughing at me for being so naive. 2023 Projection: 4/3.79/1.24/63 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.18/1.06/235 in 200 IP

2) Mick Abel PHI, RHP, 21.8 – Abel’s 6’5”, 190 pound build, combined with a 4 pitch mix led by a mid to upper 90’s fastball, screams ace upside, but the numbers and command say more mid rotation starter. He put up a 3.90 ERA with a 130/50 K/BB in 108.1 IP split between High-A and Double-A. Maybe the immediate and unquestioned dominance of Painter put the expectations too high for the still very young Abel. It seems reasonable to expect continued refinement of his command and secondaries in his age 21 year old season. If he can take those steps, his value will skyrocket, but even as is, he’s a damn exciting prospect. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 11/3.71/1.24/181 in 170 IP

3) Justin Crawford PHI, OF, 18.6 – Son of Carl Crawford. I could honestly end the blurb right there and you will know exactly the type of player Justin is. 6.11 second 60 yard dash is in the elite of the elite, and he has shown a good feel to hit. The power hasn’t fully developed yet, and he hit 0 homers with very, very high groundball rates in his 16 game pro debut, so he’s not only going to have to get stronger, he’s also going to have to make a swing adjustment to tap into more power. His upside is as high as anyone’s in a 5×5 BA, but he’s not as refined as the high school hitters ranked above him. He was selected 17th overall. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 86/16/69/.270/.337/.426/31

4) Griff McGarry PHI, RHP, 23.10 – McGarry has a mid to upper 90’s fastball that literally looks like it is swimming through the air. Hitters have had some ugly swings trying to square that thing up. The secondaries are nasty too with a plus slider, plus cutter, a changeup that flashes plus, and a curve as well. It led to a 35.7% K% in 87.1 IP split between 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). It’s top of the rotation stuff. The one snafu is that his control is very bad. He had a 14.6% BB%. His 3.71 ERA and 1.21 WHIP don’t exactly pop. His control issues were actually much worse than this in college (42 walks in 43 IP in the ACC in 2021), so this is improvement. I’m not sure if that means there could be continued improvement coming, or if this is the top of his ability. He very well could end up in the bullpen, and that is probably the most likely outcome, but if his control can take just one more step forward, he’s going to be a major problem. 2023 Projection: 2/4.21/1.36/45 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.67/1.28/172 in 150 IP

5) William Bergolla Jr. PHI, SS, 18.5 – Bergolla was a favorite of mine from the 2022 international class and he was a hit machine in his pro debut with a .380 BA and 3.6%/13.3% K%/BB% in 24 games in the DSL. It was good for a 150 wRC+. He didn’t hit a single homer and he only stole 2 bags, so I’m a little concerned about the upside, but he’s one of the safest bats coming out of the DSL. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 82/14/66/.281/.343/.414/16

6) Johan Rojas PHI, OF, 22.8 – Rojas is a speedster who nabbed 62 bags in 67 attempts in 130 games split between High-A and Double-A. He has above average, but not elite contact rates with a 17.8% K%, and his power is lacking with only 7 homers. We’ve seen enough of these types of prospects struggle hard when they hit the majors, but he has an elite skill in his speed, and the power should hopefully tick up in time. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 73/13/57/.252/.318/.396/27

7) Hao Yu Lee PHI, SS/3B/2B, 20.2 – Lee had a strong season in the lower minors, slashing .284/.386/.438 with 9 homers, 14 steals, and a 67/43 K/BB in 79 games at mostly Single-A, but he just doesn’t hit the ball hard enough to get excited. He was only 19 years old, but he’s not that projectable at 5’10”, 190 pounds, and he’s not a burner either. It’s a low upside profile with risk due to the lack of power upside. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 68/15/62/.253/.323/.417/6

8) Nikau Pouaka-Grego PHI, 2B/3B, 18.7 – Pouaka-Grego was 17 years old playing in stateside rookie ball and he excelled, slashing .301/.424/.466 with 3 homers, 2 steals, and a 16/16 K/BB in 35 games. He has a smooth lefty uppercut swing that is made to hit flyballs (36.1% GB%), and he combines that with an advanced plate approach. He’s not a big raw power or speed guy, so the upside might not be huge. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/18/73/.273/.344/.432/6

9) Gabriel Rincones PHI, OF, 22.1 – Selected 93rd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Rincones is 6’4″, 225 pounds with a quick lefty swing that produces all fields power. He destroyed Conference USA, slashing .346/.451/.658 with 19 homers, 2 steals, and a 51/42 K/BB in 58 games. He hasn’t faced the best competition and there is some swing and miss in his game, but the power is for real. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 58/18/63/.244/.322/.448/2

10) … Nobody – There ain’t no participation trophies at Imaginary Brick Wall (even though I had a shelf full of them as a kid) 🤣 Nobody who I could give this spot to would even crack my Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings. Some systems I wanted to go over 20 deep, and this one stops at 9. Just how the cookie crumbles. Let’s move on to MLB guys …

MLB Bullpen

Craig Kimbrel PHI, Closer Committee, 34.10 – If Kimbrel is right, his name value and track record should lock down the closer job for Philly, but there is no guarantee he will be right. He was terrible in 2019 and 2020, inconsistent in 2021, and just mediocre in 2022 with a 3.75 ERA and a career low by far 27.7 K%. The stuff is still big with a 95.8 MPH fastball and a slider that put up a 43.6% whiff%, but it’s not as big as it used to be. He used to throw 98+ MPH and his slider used to put up a 55% whiff%. He’s never been a plus control guy, so he doesn’t have that pitchability to fall back on as the stuff drops off. He’s pretty clearly in a decline phase, but the skills are there to still be a good reliever, and even if he’s not the best pen arm Philly has, I think he’ll get the job if he is acceptable enough. 2023 Projection: 4/3.51/1.22/80/20 saves in 63 IP

Jose Alvarado PHI, Closer Committee, 27.10 – This bullpen is full of high upside options, but Alvarado might have the highest upside of them all. He had a silly 37.9% K% on the back of a 99.6 MPH sinker and an elite cutter that put up a .110 xwOBA and 55.7% whiff%. He’s struggled with control his entire career, but something clicked in the 2nd half of the season where he put up a 1.30 ERA with a 61/10 K/BB in his final 34.2 IP. Being a lefty might work against him locking down the full time closer role, but he should be their top lefthanded option there. 2023 Projection: 4/3.03/1.18/82/15 saves in 58 IP

Seranthony Dominguez PHI, Closer Committee, 28.4 – If Kimbrel can’t lock down the job in Spring, Dominguez could be the favorite to get the first shot at it. His slider is elite with a 57.1% whiff% and he combines that with 2 upper 90’s fastballs in his 97.6 MPH 4-seamer and 98.2 MPH sinker. It was good for a 3.00 ERA and 61/22 K/BB in 51 IP, which doesn’t exactly jump off the screen, but he’s capable of topping that. 2023 Projection: 4/3.15/1.12/71/10 saves in 55 IP

Gregory Soto PHI, Closer Committee, 28.2 – No, don’t do it. It just can’t be him. He isn’t good. He had a 4.08 xERA with 1.38 WHIP and a bad 22.8%/12.9% K%/BB% in 60.1 IP. The stuff is big with a 98.7 MPH fastball, so the talent is certainly there, but he seems like the clear worst option here. 2023 Projection: 3/3.66/1.33/66/5 saves in 60 IP

MLB Hitters

Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 30.6 – Odds are Bryce Harper is on a win now team in Dynasty, and with news he’s likely to be out for a few months into 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, I would go sniffing around to see if you can land him for any kind of a discount. Tommy John surgery is not nearly as big of a deal for hitters as it pitchers, and it’s very likely he returns to prime form. It also feels like the guy is 35 years old already because he’s been in the league since he was 19, but he’s still only 30 and should have several more years of elite production left. He’s in that true elite of the elite class of player that has a real chance of killing it deep into his 30’s. Harper would have been essentially untouchable before this injury, but now the window is open just a crack, and I would go after him regardless of where my team is in the contention cycle. 2023 Projection: 56/18/54/.281/.380/.525/6

Brandon Marsh PHI, OF, 25.4 – Philly made some adjustments with Marsh after they traded for him, and he performed well there with a 114 wRC+ in 138 PA, but I’m still struggling to buy in too hard because the plate approach was still poor with a 29.7%/4.3% K%/BB%. He hits the ball hard with a line drive approach and has plus speed. That is a profile where good things tend to happen if you can make enough contact and/or get on base, but Marsh is struggling in both of those areas. He’s also been terrible against lefties. A strong side of a platoon bat seems like the best case scenario for early in his career. 2023 Projection: 53/11/48/.248/.309/.415/11

MLB Starting Pitchers

Ranger Suarez PHI, LHP, 27.8 – Suarez had visa issues because of the lockout, arriving late to camp in Spring, and it clearly messed him up. He put up a 4.74 ERA in his first 43.2 IP, but then found his rhythm and put up a 3.22 ERA the rest of the way in 111.2 IP. His game is all about keeping the ball on the ground (5.1 degree launch) and inducing weak contact (87.5 MPH EV against). He does it mostly with a 92.5 MPH sinker that put up a negative 3 degree launch, but he also has 5 other pitches, 4 of which put up an above average xwOBA (change, cutter, curve, slider). He doesn’t have huge stuff, he’s not a huge K guy (19.5% K%), and he’s not an elite command guy (8.8% BB%), so the upside isn’t necessarily huge, but there is an interesting blend of skills and pitch mix here to be a legitimate impact fantasy starter. 2023 Projection: 11/3.73/1.25/150 in 170 IP

Bailey Falter PHI, LHP, 25.11 – I named Bailey a low key, late round flier type target last off-season, and while Philly used him as an up and down arm for the most of the year, he excelled when they finally gave him a real shot. He put up a 3.00 ERA with 37/6 K/BB in 45 IP to close out the season. Plus control is his game with an elite 4.9% BB%. The stuff isn’t big with a 91 MPH sinker, but he has a 5 pitch mix that puts up respectable K rates with an almost average 21.2% K% and 23.8% whiff%. He won’t be a league winner, but he can a stabilizing force at the back of your fantasy rotation if he can make it through spring with the 5th starter job. 2023 Projection: 9/3.89/1.23/127 in 140 IP

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Smart teams know that depth is extremely important, so the Cubs recent signings of Hosmer and Mancini are good moves for real life, but man do they throw a wrench in the Matt Mervis hype train. I can’t say I didn’t see this coming, trying to pour at least a small amount of water on the hype, writing in the Mervis blurb, “Chicago’s 1B job is wide open, but they have been rumored to be in the 1B market, so his path to playing time might not end up as clear as it’s looking right now.” I also brought up his platoon risk. If you’re a Mervis fan, this should only be a temporary road block, but it’s now questionable whether he will even break camp with the team, and he’s going to have to earn it every step of the way without a very long leash when he does get his shot. You can no longer count on him holding down that 1B job for your dynasty team in 2023. If he eventually wins it, consider it gravy.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE & EARLY ACCESS CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 260 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS w/ Strategy & Target Guide
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 282 OF//Top 151 SS//Top 115 3B//Top 105 2B//Top 95 1B//TOP 68 C
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago Cubs (free)—Cincinnati Reds (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Los Angeles Dodgers (free)—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—St. Louis Cardinals (free)—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: 2023 Top 109 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings

It’s a new year, and that means there is a new crop of prospects ready to take pro ball by storm. This list includes both drafted players and international prospects. Here is the 2023 Top 109 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THIS ARTICLE AND TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 151 SS//Top 115 3B//Top 105 2B//Top 95 1B//TOP 68 C
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Team Reports on Patreon
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Tier 1

1) Druw Jones ARI, OF, 19.4 – Selected 2nd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Jones has that classic tall and projectable build that screams upside, and he has elite bloodlines with Andruw Jones being his father. He has near elite speed (6.31 60 yard dash) and truly elite bat speed (99.42 percentile-besting some marks put up by bat speed monster Harry Ford last year). His power has also exploded this year, with him launching some homers that blew up on Twitter (Will Hoefer). He hurt his shoulder during BP before he was able to debut and underwent surgery to repair it, but I dropped Lawlar from the #1 slot in my first year player draft rankings last year after his shoulder injury, and I’m not making the same mistake with Jones ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 93/30/104/.274/.355/.515/20

2) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.4 – Baseball is starting to feel like it is a hereditary monarchy, where all star games are passed down based on bloodlines like it’s the 1300’s. Jackson is the son of Matt, commander of the Armies of the North, General of the Felix Legions and loyal servant to the true emperor, Marcus Aurelius. Father to a murdered son. Husband to a murdered wife. And I will have my vengeance, in this life or the ne … my bad, lost myself there 🙂 … Like many plus bloodline kids, Jackson is an advanced hitter, and he combines that with plus athleticism and a plus power/speed combo. He truly wields the bat like it’s a samurai sword, gracefully killing the ball with a smooth and powerful lefty swing. He stepped right into pro ball and was far too advanced for rookie ball (220 wRC+ with a 6.1%/30.3% K%/BB% in 8 rookie ball games) before performing well in 12 games at Single-A (130 wRC+ with a 17.5%/26.3% K%/BB%). Druw Jones and Holliday are in a tier of their own. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 96/25/88/.283/.362/.491/14

Tier 2

3) Zach Neto LAA, SS, 22.2 – Selected 12th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, LA put any concerns to rest real early about Neto not playing in the toughest college conference (Big South), quickly moving him to Double-A where he thrived, slashing .320/.382/.492 with 4 homers, 4 steals, and a 21.3%/5.9% K%/BB% in 30 games. I loved him even before the big pro debut, writing around draft time, “Maybe I’ve been watching so much Spencer Steer lately that I’m just seeing him in everywhere, but I’m seeing a lot of Steer in Neto’s game. I think they are both taking a page out of Alex Bregman’s book.” He did what he was supposed to do against the inferior college competition with total across the board destruction, and he also proved it in the Cape League with a 1.026 OPS and an 8/8 K/BB in 16 games. He might not win you any one category, but he can make an impact in all of them. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 87/23/81/.276/.342/.458/13

4) Elijah Green WAS, OF, 19.4 – Selected 5th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Green is the ultimate high risk, high reward prospect. He is a fully grown man at 6’3”, 225 pounds and his father, Eric Green, is a former 1st round pick, Pro Bowl NFL Tight End. He has truly elite speed (6.16 60 yard dash) and exit velocity numbers, but it comes with major hit tool risk. He showed the upside and risk in all it’s glory in his MLB debut with a 156 wRC+ and 40.4% K% in 12 games in rookie ball. If you want to shoot for the moon in off-season first year player drafts, Green is your guy. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 81/32/92/.248/.330/.509/17

5) Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 21.11 – Selected 25th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, the 6’7”, 225 pound Jones is the lefty version of Aaron Judge, even down to the fact they each hit “only” 12 homers in their draft year. It’s the hacky comp, but it’s also one that cuts through all the BS. He had some K issues in college with 64 K’s in 61 SEC games, and a high GB% kept the homers in check. His pro debut tamped down some of those concerns though as he played like a man amongst boys, slashing .344/.425/.538 with 4 homers, 12 steals, and a 18.9%/10.4% K%/BB% in 25 games at mostly Single-A. His power is huge enough to overcome a high GB% and he’s a good athlete with stolen base skills. He’ll get plenty of love in first year player drafts, but I suspect it won’t be enough. Go after him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/27/86/.248/.333/.480/10

6) Termarr Johnson PIT, 2B/SS, 18.10 – Selected 4th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Johnson looks like a seasoned MLB vet at the dish, spitting at pitches out of the zone and making excellent contact when he does swing. His swing looks geared more for contact than power at the moment, but he clearly showed his power potential in the 2021 Home Run Derby at Coors where he crushed 24 homers, one of which went 501 feet. He’s currently in the 98.22 percentile in his class for bat speed too. He’s not a burner, but a 6.65 60 yard dash (Perfect Game) is pretty damn good and he stole 9 bags in 8 Team USA games (he slashed .375/.483/.542 in those games), so his speed might be getting undersold. The only hiccup is his pro debut. He had a 27.6% K% in 9 games at rookie ball and a 24.5% K% in 14 games at Single-A. Both marks are far off from elite contact, but he walked a lot at each level and stole 6 bags total. He also put up a 139 wRC+ at Single-A. The guy can play. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 91/23/86/.277/.355/.478/12

7) Cam Collier CIN, 3B, 18.4 – Selected 18th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Collier is one of the youngest players in the class and is already pretty built up, although it looks like there is room for more. He also has the bloodlines with his father, Lou Collier, playing in the majors for 8 years. He played JUCO ball this year as a 17 year old and was hitting bombs with an extremely fast and powerful lefty swing, slashing .333/.419/.537. He then destroyed rookie ball with a 203 wRC+ in 9 games. His plus hit/power combo was made for Great American Ballpark. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 86/28/94/.271/.346/.496/4

8) Kodai Senga NYM, RHP, 30.2 – It’s never easy valuing veteran players from overseas in relation to teenagers in the minors, which is why I don’t think Senga (and Yoshida) should be included in First Year Player Drafts. He should be included in the MLB portion of your off-season festivities with the rest of the 30 year olds. Including him in a prospect draft completely defeats the purpose of having a separate prospect draft, but I know these guys will be included in prospect drafts in most leagues, so let’s get down to business. In general, my strategy at the top of First Year Player Drafts and off-season prospects drafts is to strike gold on the next Julio/Acuna/Soto etc … This is your chance to hit on future superstars or future top 5 prospects who you can trade for current superstars. It’s not really the place to go after a mid rotation starter like Senga. He signed for 5 years, $75 million, which tells you the type of production MLB executives expect him out of him. Good, but not great. His control is solid, but not standout, and his 8.6% BB% was actually below average. He’s not an innings eater type at 6’0, 178 pounds, and he’s only eclipsed 148 IP once since 2017. I say that to show he isn’t a slam dunk, but there are definitely skills here to get excited about. He throws in the mid to upper 90’s and his splitter is a devastating pitch. He also throws an above average slider and average curve. It’s a #2 starter at best, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see him struggle a bit. 2023 Projection: 11/3.82/1.26/164 in 160 IP

Tier 3

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THIS ARTICLE AND TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 151 SS//Top 115 3B//Top 105 2B//Top 95 1B//TOP 68 C
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago Cubs (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Los Angeles Dodgers (free)—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—St. Louis Cardinals (free)—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Cincinnati Reds 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10+ Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10+ Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Cincinnati Reds 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10+ Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 151 SS//Top 115 3B//Top 105 2B//Top 95 1B//TOP 68 C
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago Cubs (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Los Angeles Dodgers (free)—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—St. Louis Cardinals (free)—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

Starting Pitchers

Nick Lodolo CIN, LHP, 25.2 – I implored my Patreon members to go out and buy Lodolo (along with Spencer Strider and Cristian Javier) while he was on the IL in my Top 10 Mid-Season Trade Targets back in June, and then the breakout came shortly after that. He put up a 3.35 ERA with a 112/34 K/BB in 88.2 IP after touting him (5.52 ERA in 14.2 IP previously). His curveball is the money maker with a .220 xwOBA and 46% whiff%, and the bat missing 94.4 MPH fastball ain’t too shabby either with a 27.6% whiff%. He rounds out the repertoire with a groundball inducing sinker and changeup. He’s an extremely uncomfortable at bat at 6’6” with a Randy Johnson-esque side arm lefty delivery. Injuries and Great American Ballpark are the only things that can hold him back. 2023 Projection: 10/3.48/1.18/175 in 150 IP

Hunter Greene CIN, RHP, 23.8 – It felt like I was the only one who believed in Greene for a little while there, naming him a player to target in my Top 13 Early Off-Season Targets in September, and while his late season dominance chipped into some of that value, I still think there is a buying opportunity. He closed the season out with a 1.02 ERA and 51/8 K/BB in his final 35.1 IP. He throws a swing and miss 98.3 MPH fastball (28.3% whiff%) with a plus slider (.245 xwOBA). It was good for a 4.44 ERA (4.00 xERA) and a 30.9%/9.0% K%/BB% in 125.2 IP on the season, which is a damn good rookie year. A shoulder injury knocked out one and a half months of his season, and his lightly used changeup got hit up, but he’s just scratching the surface of his potential. Use the inflated ERA to buy while you still can. 2023 Projection: 10/3.65/1.20/188 in 160 IP

Graham Ashcraft CIN, RHP, 25.2 – Ashcraft wasn’t able to miss nearly enough bats in the majors with a 15.3% K% and 18.6% whiff%. It led to a 4.89 ERA in 105 IP. There are reasons for hope though. His 97.3 MPH cutter, which he went to over half the time (50.7% usage), generally got the job done with a 2 degree launch and 85.6 MPH EV against. His slider was an above average pitch with a .269 xwOBA and 32% whiff%. He induced weak contact (86.9 MPH EV), kept the ball in the ground (3.8 degree launch), and threw the ball over the plate (career best at any level 6.5% BB%). His 4.02 xERA looks much better than the inflated ERA. Ashcraft also realizes the almost all fastball approach (he threw a sinker 21.5% of the time too) isn’t going to cut it, and has been working hard on his changeup and splitter this off-season. He should go for a super cheap price this off-season, and I will almost certainly be grabbing him in every league. 2023 Projection: 9/3.91/1.32/129 in 155 IP

Hitters

Jonathan India CIN, 2B, 26.3 – India’s low EV from 2021 (87.6 MPH) came back to bite him in 2022, and it actually got even worse, tanking to 85.1 MPH. His speed tanked too from an 85.6 percentile speed rank to 58.9 percentile. He battled a variety of injuries all season long, but it’s hard to place all of the blame on them. You’re going to get dinged up as a major leaguer. It was a disaster sophomore season all around. We’ve seen many players bounce back from the classic sophomore slump, and he’s still in one of the best hitter’s parks in the league. You don’t want to write off such a talented player like India after one bad, injury filled year. This is a bet on the player and the talent, because the underlying numbers are not kind to him. 2023 Projection: 76/20/72/.256/.333/.427/9

Wil Myers CIN, 1B/OF, 32.4 – Myers fantasy value was in it’s final death throes, but his value got one of those double paddle electrical impulses to the chest by signing with Cincinnati. It’s not like getting hit by those paddles returns you to prime form, but at least he has a pulse. He goes from one of the worst ballparks in the league to one of the best. He’s been a below average hitter for the last two years with high K rates (30.1% K% in 2022) and mediocre EV numbers (91.4 MPH FB/LD EV), but neither of them are in hopeless territory, and he still has his athleticism with a 28.2 ft/sec sprint. I’m far from targeting him, but he’s an interesting later round pick for a win now team. 2023 Projection: 66/19/69/.251/.322/.429/9

Jake Fraley CIN, OF, 27.10 – Fraley had a strong 2022 with a .812 OPS in 68 games, but I’m not buying in. His 85.1 MPH EV is terrible and it’s been bad his entire career. His hit tool took a big step forward with a career best 21.9% K%, but it’s still only average at best with a .259 BA and .248 xBA. And while he has some speed with a 28 ft/sec sprint, he only stole 4 bags last year. You certainly can’t count on the power, it’s doubtful he will be a positive in BA, and you can’t count on big stolen base totals. 2023 Projection: 66/14/59/.250/.331/.420/9

Bullpen

Alexis Diaz CIN, Closer, 26.6 – It’s been said a million and one times, but no other position has as many guys who pop up and perform to truly elite levels. It’s why going cheap on closer is a very effective strategy. Diaz made his pro debut in 2022 and was immediately elite with a pitching line of 1.84/0.96/83/33 in 63.2 IP. He has that classic closer profile with 95.7 MPH gas combined with a plus slider (.234 xwOBA and 45% whiff%). He misses bats (32.5% K%) and induces weak contact (86.7 MPH EV against). Poor control is the one thing that can hold him back with a 12.9% BB%, but his control really wasn’t that horrific in his minor league career, so I’m not super concerned about that. He seems locked in as Cincy’s closer and is a great 2nd/3rd tier closer to grab after the top guys go for a much much higher price. 2023 Projection: 4/3.22/1.16/85/26 saves in 65 IP

Top 20 Cincinnati Reds Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.3 – Elly De La Cruz might still be a high risk, high reward prospect, but in 2022 the risk got a whole lot less, and the reward got a whole lot more. He put up one of the those stupid good seasons in the minors, slashing .304/.359/.586 with 28 homers, 47 steals, and a 30.8%/7.8% K%/BB% in 120 games split between High-A and Double-A. He ripped up both levels, and most importantly, he didn’t let his K% skyrocket at Double-A. He then played in the pitcher’s haven Dominican Winter League, which is a grown man’s league (he’s about 8 years younger than average), and it’s great sign that he ran a 26.7%/15.8% K%/BB% in 101 PA. It sure seems like he will be able to continue to improve the plate approach rather than it going in the opposite direction. The numbers he can potentially put up at Great American Ballpark are scary. 2023 Projection: 32/11/35/.232/.294/.433/12 Prime Projection: 87/30/98/.250/.331/.503/30

2) Noelvi Marte CIN, SS, 21.5 – There is nothing scouts hate more than when players start to fill out before they want them to fill out, and I think scouts overestimate their ability to predict when players will lose their athleticism in general. Having said that, Marte filled out in 2022 and he’s definitely starting to look more like a thick, power hitting corner infielder than a wiry strong SS. It’s going to hurt his ranking on real life lists, but I would be careful about discounting him too much for fantasy. He has big time power (19 homers in 115 games at High-A), speed (23 steals), and while his hit tool isn’t great, he has a strong plate approach (20.1%/11.3% K%/BB%). He’s not a finished product, and I wouldn’t expect huge steal totals, but he can be mighty dangerous in the friendly confines of Great American Ballpark. He wouldn’t be untouchable for me (I recently traded him away in my 12 teamer for Cristian Javier), but I would need a very exciting win now piece to deal him. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 84/27/89/.263/.338/.484/12

3) Cam Collier CIN, 3B, 18.4 – Selected 18th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Collier is one of the youngest players in the class and is already pretty built up, although it looks like there is room for more. He also has the bloodlines with his father, Lou Collier, playing in the majors for 8 years. He played JUCO ball this year as a 17 year old and was hitting bombs with an extremely fast and powerful lefty swing, slashing .333/.419/.537. He then destroyed rookie ball with a 203 wRC+ in 9 games. His plus hit/power combo was made for Great American Ballpark. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 86/28/94/.271/.346/.496/4

4) Spencer Steer CIN, SS/2B/3B, 25.4 – Low EV numbers in a prospects MLB debut are a bit scary to me, and Steer’s 84.7 MPH EV in 108 PA put a halt to his hype train from the destruction he laid in the upper minors. He slashed .274/.364/.515 with 23 homers, 4 steals, and a 89/51 K/BB in 106 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He hit the ball harder in the minors, but he’s no Aaron Judge, and at 25 years old already, it’s hard to say there is much more power coming. It wasn’t all bad in the majors as he showed a strong plate approach with a 24.1%/10.2% K%/BB% and an above average 24.8% Chase%. His 90.1 MPH FB/LD EV also isn’t as hopeless as his average, and I don’t want to put too much weight on the small sample. He’s in a great ballpark and I’m betting on those EV numbers coming up enough for Steer to do damage. I would buy his poor MLB debut. 2023 Projection: 44/14/42/.250/.316/.419/3 Prime Projection: 77/23/76/.267/.334/.446/5

5) Edwin Arroyo CIN, SS, 19.7 – Arroyo had a huge start to the season, cracking 12 homers in his first 63 games, but he hit only 2 homers in 53 games the rest of the way. His K% took a step back too, putting up a 22.8% K% in 87 games with Seattle and a 28.4% K% in 27 games after getting traded to Cincinnati. He had a high BABIP and a mediocre 8.5% BB%. He’s not some insane athlete, the hit tool has risk, and there isn’t big raw power. I say all this to just give some caution, because he had a damn exciting triple slash of .293/.366/.480 with 14 homers and 27 steals at Single-A. The upside isn’t huge, but it’s hard not to be impressed by this level of performance from someone who was 18 years old for most of the year. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 77/18/72/.258/.320/.427/18

6) Christian Encarnacion-Strand CIN, 1B/3B, 23.4 – Strand has destroyed every level he’s been at, putting up a 1.103 OPS in 2021 in the Big 12, a 1.022 OPS at Single-A in 2021, a .986 OPS at High-A in 2022, and a .934 OPS at Double-A in 2022. He has big time power, smashing 32 homers in 122 games split between High-A and Double-A this year. The plate approach isn’t great with a 25.0%/4.8% K%/BB% at Double-A, and he’s not a good defensive player, so he will likely have to scratch and claw for playing time. The trade to Cincinnati from Minnesota gives him both a major ballpark upgrade and also an opportunity upgrade. 2023 Projection: 11/4/13/.233/.298/.425/0 Prime Projection: 68/26/81/.247/.316/.462/3

7) Carlos Jorge CIN, 2B, 19.6 – Jorge completely backed up his big 2021 in the DSL, slashing .261/.405/.529 with 7 homers, 27 steals, and a 26.6%/16.2% K%/BB% in 42 games in stateside rookie ball. He’s not an imposing figure at 5’10”, 160 pounds, but he can certainly put a charge into the ball in the mold of a Jose Ramirez, and he’s an excellent base runner with plus speed. The strikeout rate is a little higher than optimal, but don’t let his diminutive stature fool you, Jorge has legitimate upside and could explode up rankings in 2023. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 86/18/68/.263/.337/.423/25

8) Sal Stewart CIN, 3B, 19.4 – Selected 32nd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Stewart is 6’3”, 215 pounds with the potential to hit for both power and average. He put up a 5/4 K/BB with 4 doubles and a 135 wRC+ in 8 games in his pro debut at rookie ball, and he didn’t show any major groundball issues with a 42.1% GB%. He might end up moving to 1B, but he has the bat to profile anywhere. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 78/25/83/.268/.341/.476/4

9) Matt McLain CIN, 2B/SS, 23.8 – McLain had a big power/speed season at Double-A with 17 homers and 27 steals in 103 games at Double-A, but his .232 BA and 28.1% K% is concerning, and he tanked in the AFL with a .657 OPS and 31.2% K%. He’s not a big raw power guy at 5’11”, 180 pounds, so the hit tool trouble is particularly troubling. 2023 Projection: 9/2/11/.223/.291/.403/3 Prime Projection: 69/18/73/.238/.317/.421/16

10) Jay Allen CIN, OF, 20.4 – Allen’s power was much worse than anticipated. He hit only 3 homers in 91 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. There was tons of weak contact that led to a .225 BA. His contact rates weren’t all that good either with a 24% K%. He’s a great athlete with plus speed (43 steals) and more raw power in the tank at 6’2”, 190 pounds, so the upside is still high, but the lack of power was extreme enough for me to shy away from him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 71/14/62/.240/.317/.418/22

11) Chase Petty CIN, RHP, 20.0 – Petty’s stuff wasn’t as big as advertised with his fastball sitting around 93-94 MPH rather than the mid to upper 90’s we were expecting/hoping for. Maybe he was taking a little bit off to help his control/command, because he was better than expected there with a 7.7% BB%. He put up a 3.48 ERA with a 23.7% K%. We thought he was high risk/high reward coming into 2022, and he ended up being the opposite of that. He’s now relatively safe but the upside seems limited, especially with Great American Ballpark waiting for him. Maybe he’ll start airing it out more in 2023 to reclaim his upside. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/4.05/1.28/153 in 160 IP

12) Leonardo Balcazar CIN, SS, 18.9 – Balcazar ripped up the DSL in 2021 with a 135 wRC+, and he did the same stateside in 2022 with a 144 wRC+ in 42 games. His 25% K% is on the high side, but he has an exciting blend of tools with emerging power (4 homers in 42 games), speed (13 steals), and a mature plate approach (10.7% BB%). He’s flying too far under the radar. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/21/74/.263/.334/.432/14

13) Victor Acosta CIN, SS, 18.10 – Acosta couldn’t build on his standout DSL performance in 2021. His OPS dropped to .707 and he went 5 for 12 on the bases in 42 games stateside. It wasn’t a complete disaster with a 22.4%/12.7% K%/BB% that led to a slightly above average wRC+, but his value took a big hit. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 70/14/61/.253/.324/.410/11

14) Connor Phillips CIN, RHP, 21.11 – Phillips has major bullpen risk, but he can be an elite back end guy even if he does end up there. He has big time stuff with a mid to upper 90’s fastball, plus slider, and above average curve. It led to 150 K’s in 109.2 IP split between High-A and Double-A. The bullpen risk comes from his poor control (66 walks) and weak changeup. He also performed much worse at Double-A (4.93 ERA in 45.2 IP) than at High-A (2.95 ERA in 64 IP). ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 4/3.43/1.19/83/25 saves in 65 IP

15) Brandon Williamson CIN, LHP, 25.0 – Williamson was getting hyped up pretty hard last off-season, and I’m quite happy I held strong with my evaluation of him as more of a #4 type starter. He was bad in 2022 with a pitching line of 4.11/1.56/123/77 in 122.2 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A. His fastball sits in the low 90’s and his control was terrible with a 13.9% BB%. He’s a skinny 6’6” lefty with a starter’s pitch mix, so even at 25 years old there is room for improvement, but it’s a back end starter’s profile right now. 2023 Projection: 2/4.55/1.42/40 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.17/1.33/162 in 165 IP

16) Allan Cerda CIN, OF, 23.4 – The 6’3”, 170 pound Cerda has no joke power with a big righty swing that does damage. He hits the ball damn hard and ended up with 24 homers in 124 games split between High-A and Double-A. The hit tool is a major issue though as the power came with a .208 BA and 33.2% K%. Cincy’s current OF is a dumpster fire and there really isn’t any help on the way in the minors, so Cerda is in the perfect organization and ballpark to get the most out of his profile. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 68/24/75/.222/.314/.456/5

17) Alfredo Duno CIN, C, 17.3 – The 2nd best catcher in the international class, Duno is a power hitting beast in the mold of Diego Cartaya. He’s already built like a man with a strong base (3:25 mark of the video). He’s a good athlete and swings a quick bat. He’s not far off from Ethan Salas, and might have more fantasy upside especially if he stays in Cincy. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 68/27/81/.251/.326/.472/3

18) Hector Rodriguez CIN, OF, 19.1 – Rodriguez is a little guy at 5’8” with a plus hit tool. He hit .359 with a 7.1% K% in rookie ball. There is little to no power projection (3 homers in 49 total games), and he’s not that fast, so it’s not a high upside profile. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/13/63/.278/.332/.411/7

19) Ricardo Cabrera CIN, SS, 18.5 – Coming off signing for $2.7 million, Cabrera didn’t exactly stand out in the DSL with only 1 homer, 5 steals, and a mediocre 22.2%/7.2% K%/BB% in 45 games, but it was still good for an above average 108 wRC+. I don’t think it’s a good idea to give too long of a leash on hyped international prospects who struggle their first year or two in pro ball, but I also don’t have to pull the rip cord completely too early. Gotta give them at least a year to get acclimated. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 73/20/74/.258/.324/.434/11

20) Carlos Sanchez CIN, 3B/OF, 18.3 – Sanchez was a DSL standout, slashing .355/.505/.442 with 2 homers, 14 steals, and a 15.4%/22% K%/BB%. It was good for a 169 wRC+. There isn’t much info out there on him, but I don’t care what level you’re playing at, if you get on base more than 50% of the time, that is impressive. He’s at least worth being on your radar to see what he can do stateside. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 68/14/54/.267/.334/.409/8

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Resist the urge to trade down in First Year Player Drafts. With First Year Player Draft season ramping up (my Top 100+ FYPD Rankings are dropping this week), now is the time of year where you are sure to get peppered with tons of, “Hey man, you have interest in trading your 5th overall pick for my 11th and 16th?” Every dynasty manager has that Bill Belichick in them, trying to tinker, strategize, and out smart the competition, but in 99% of dynasty leagues I’ve played in it rarely makes sense to trade down. In most leagues there is a surplus of prospects available anyway. Either they can be picked up freely during the year, or there is a prospect max per team that creates a prospect crunch. Even if those don’t apply to you, you don’t need a million prospects in your system. One gem is worth more than several decent guys. Hold strong in your draft position, dodge all of those shady trade offers, and pick the best available player.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 151 SS//Top 115 3B//Top 105 2B//Top 95 1B//TOP 68 C
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago Cubs (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Los Angeles Dodgers (free)—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—St. Louis Cardinals (free)—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: A Top 200 Sneak Peek of the 2023 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

It’s Sneak Peek season on the Patreon as I continue to build out my 2023 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings. Here is A Top 200 Sneak Peek of the 2023 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THIS ARTICLE AND TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 43 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100 COMING LATER IN THE OFF-SEASON)
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 68 C//Top 95 1B//Top 105 2B//Top 115 3B//Top 151 SS
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago Cubs (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Los Angeles Dodgers (free)—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—St. Louis Cardinals (free)—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 28.9 – Ohtani came into 2022 as my #1 overall dynasty player, and he not only hung onto the top spot, but he somehow managed to pull even further away from the pack. He became arguably the best pitcher in baseball with a 2.33 ERA and 33.2%/6.7% K%/BB% in 166 IP. He also continued to be among the best hitters in baseball with a .385 xwOBA which was 6th best overall. It’s not an exaggeration to say that Ohtani is the greatest player to ever play the game. 2023 Projection: 94/33/99/.270/.361/.527/18–13/2.94/1.03/199 in 161 IP

2) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 22.3 – Prospects can break your heart, but the season Julio just had is why we play the game. There is nothing more satisfying in all of fantasy sports than acquiring a young prospect, letting him develop in your farm system, and then watching him explode in his MLB debut. And explode is exactly what he did, slashing .284/.345/.509 with 28 homers, 25 steals, and a 25.9%/7.1% K%/BB% in 132 games. He has elite speed (29.8 ft/sec sprint speed) and elite exit velocity numbers (92/96.2 MPH AVG/FB EV). He closed out the season with a bang, putting up a 1.202 OPS in his final 19 games, which could be foreshadowing for what he has in store for 2023. The only quibble is that he ran far less in the 2nd half with only 4 steals in 7 attempts in his final 50 games, but considering how fast he is, I wouldn’t get too hung up on that. 2023 Projection: 96/32/98/.278/.353/.522/26

3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 25.3 – Acuna underwent knee surgery for a torn ACL in late July 2021, and he was understandably not 100% in 2022. It’s seriously impressive that he was able to make his debut in late April, but that is where the impressing ended. He put up a career worst .764 OPS with only 15 homers in 119 games. His launch angle tanked 7.4 degrees to 10.8 degrees and his sprint speed dropped 0.9 ft/sec to 28.5 ft/sec. It was far from a complete disaster though. His .366 xwOBA was in the top 5% of the league, his 24.9% whiff% was a career best, and he still ran a ton with 29 steals. With a normal off-season and more time away from that surgery, I would be shocked if Acuna doesn’t bounce back to elite levels. 2023 Projection: 106/32/91/.279/.362/.511/33

4) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 25.9 – Alvarez’s .462 xwOBA was bested only by Aaron Judge by .001. His 95.2 MPH EV was only topped by Aaron Judge. He was the 2nd best hitter in baseball this year, behind you guessed it, Aaron Judge. I think you get the point. He’s a 6’5”, 225 pound beast who hits the ball with superhuman strength, and he also has an elite plate approach with a 18.9%/13.9% K%/BB%. The surgically repaired knees might become an issue down the line, but they clearly aren’t going to slow him down anytime soon. 2023 Projection: 102/40/111/.302/.400/.578/1

5) Juan Soto SDP, OF, 24.5 – Soto’s numbers fell off hard in San Diego with a .778 OPS and only 6 homers in 52 games. They have one of the worst hitter’s ballparks in baseball, so it would be easy to feel a little trepidation, but betting against Soto seems foolish. His underlying numbers were still elite in San Diego with a 92.1 MPH EV and 14.9%/19.3% K%/BB% in 228 PA. He was very unlucky all year with a .249 BABIP (career .309 BABIP). His .401 xwOBA was the 4th best mark in baseball. The dude is still silly elite. 2023 Projection: 107/31/98/.283/.420/.521/10

6) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 26.3 – Tucker got considerably slower this year with his sprint speed dropping off a cliff to a well below average 26.4 ft/sec, but he still thrived on the bases with a career high 25 steals in 29 attempts. It’s a reminder that there is a lot more to base stealing than just being fast. He combines his base stealing skills with a near elite plate approach (15.6%/9.7% K%/BB%), above average exit velocity (90 MPH), and a launch made for dingers (19 degree launch with 30 homers). People have been slow to buy into Tucker’s elite status, but 2022 should cement it. 2023 Projection: 82/32/97/.271/.340/.507/21

7) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS/3B, 22.10 – Bobby Witt was the fastest man in the majors with a 30.4 ft/sec sprint speed (actually tied for first with Jose Siri and Bubba Thompson), at least until someone by the name of Corbin Carroll showed up and put up a 30.7 mark. It led to 30 stolen bases in 37 attempts, and with the new stolen base rules, I’m hesitant to even put a ceiling on what he’s capable of in 2023. There were some swing and miss concerns prior to his debut, but he proved that won’t be an issue with an above average 21.4% K%. His power was good but not great with 20 homers in 150 games, and there is a little Cody Bellinger risk here, in that he hits the ball in the air a lot with a relatively low FB/LD EV (92.6 MPH). Witt’s 16.8 degree launch angle isn’t as extreme as Bellinger’s 20.3 degree launch, his 113.7 Max EV (top 8% of the league) was much higher than Bellinger’s 107.3 MPH Max, and I’m only expecting continued improvements from the still 22 year old Witt. He has scary high upside, and we just saw the floor. 2023 Projection: 87/26/90/.267/.331/.472/36

Shadow7) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 28.9 – This is where I would take Ohtani as a hitter only or in a weekly lineup league. 2023 Projection: 94/33/99/.270/.361/.527/18–13/2.94/1.03/199 in 161 IP

8) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, SS/OF, 24.3 – Tatis seems to have a karmic black cloud hanging over his head. He had an injured shoulder that kept popping out which he refused to get surgery for, then he fractured his wrist in a motorcycle accident, and then he got popped for a PED suspension which will keep him out 20 games into 2023. They do say bad news comes in 3’s. It does seem like he is trying to make amends now though. He agreed to get shoulder surgery and also underwent wrist surgery. The thing that worries me a little bit is that the doctors were concerned the first wrist surgery wouldn’t hold, so he had to have a 2nd one where they inserted a screw. He’s collecting enough red flags to open a Six Flags Great Adventure amusement park. Despite it all, I still find it hard to believe his best days are behind him. He’s a 24 year old elite athlete with baseball bloodlines. It would be too risk averse to sell low or write him off when the upside is something like 9 more years of elite production. I would take any discount on Tatis that I could get. 2023 Projection: 86/28/84/.273/.355/.558/19

9) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 24.1 – Vlad gave up almost all of the gains he made in 2021. His EV dropped 2.3 MPH to 92.8 MPH, his launch angle dropped 5.1 degrees to 4.3 degrees, and his xwOBA dropped .069 points to .348. He’s still a beast who played in 160 games and jacked 32 homers with a 16.4% K%. He also stole a career high 8 bags. This is basically his floor, and we saw the type of year he could put up when everything comes together. 2023 Projection: 96/34/104/.282/.349/.510/5

10) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 30.11 – Judge hit only 62 homers this year, not even coming close to the home run record of 73. His cute little 207 wRC+ was bested by Barry Bonds 5 times. He also stole only 16 bases, falling short of the vaunted 20/20 season. It was just a disappointment all around, and as a Yankees fan, it’s unacceptable. He wasn’t worth a dollar more than $359,999,999 😉  2023 Projection: 111/43/109/.286/.398/.562/11

11) Trea Turner PHI, SS, 29.9 – It wasn’t Turner’s best statistical season with a 6 year low .809 OPS, a career low 27 steals, and a career worst 26.3% whiff%, but nothing was that far off from career norms. There are also zero signs that he’s slowing down with a super elite 30.3 ft/sec sprint speed, so who knows what he’ll be capable of with the new stolen base rules. There is a chance we see some truly special stolen base seasons in 2023, and Turner is in prime position to lead that charge. His move to Philadelphia doesn’t change his value at all for me. 2023 Projection: 103/23/87/.293/.344/.486/36

12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 30.6 – Ramirez jammed his thumb at the end of June, which would eventually require off-season surgery, and he wasn’t the same player after that. He had a 1.039 OPS before the injury and a .766 OPS after the injury. He had his usual great year regardless with 29 homers, 20 steals, and a 139 wRC+, but his underlying numbers fell off hard with a below average 87.7 MPH EV and a barely above average .320 xwOBA. Because it is very clear what caused the drop off, and because he should have plenty of time to fully recover this off-season, I wouldn’t drop him at all in rankings. Although this is how a decline can start, with injuries piling up and maybe not healing as well, or as fast as they did when you were in your 20’s. 2023 Projection: 93/30/100/.274/.353/.519/22

13) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 25.1 – Bichette was on his way to a disappointing season before going Mach 5 in his final 42 games, slashing .386/.436/.608 with 7 homers, 6 steals, and a 29/13 K/BB. He had a .716 OPS in the 117 games before that. The plate approach isn’t great (22.2%/5.9% K%/BB%), the launch angle could be better (8.5 degrees), and he’s not that fast (27.5 ft/sec sprint speed), but what he does best is smoking the ball with a 91.9/95.2 MPH AVG/FB EV, and that is almost the most important thing. I’ll keep betting on a 25 year old who crushes the ball with a good feel to hit and some speed. 2023 Projection: 97/27/97/.293/.340/.502/17

14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 26.5 – Devers is as easy as it comes to evaluate. He demolishes the ball with an elite 93.1 MPH EV, and his 11.3 degree launch angle is geared for both power and average. He also maintained the improved plate approach from 2021 with an 18.6%/8.1% K%/BB%. He’s that perfect combo of being young and established, plus he strikes me as the type who will be able to hit from a wheelchair, meaning I would bet on him producing well into his 30’s. 2023 Projection: 89/29/105/.284/.348/.517/4

15) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 22.1 – Harris got a surprise call-up straight from Double-A and he hit the ground running in the majors, slashing .297/.339/.515 with 19 homers, 20 steals, and a 24.3%/4.8% K%/BB% in 114 games. He has an elite 29.4 ft/sec sprint speed and he hits the ball damn hard with a 89.5/95.8 MPH AVG/FB EV. Both is GB% (56.2% vs. 45.9%) and BB% (4.8% vs. 8.7%) were much better at Double-A than in the majors, so I think it is fair to expect improvements in that area as he refines his game. It’s bonkos he was even able to do what he did as a 21 year old with 196 total AB’s in the upper minors, all at Double-A. He’s an elite dynasty asset. 2023 Projection: 93/22/79/.279/.336/.472/28

16) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 22.1 – A quad injury knocked Franco out for almost all of June and then a wrist injury which required surgery knocked him out for 2 months from early July to early September. The injuries contributed to his mediocre season with his EV tanking to 85.1 MPH after returning from the wrist injury, but it wasn’t the only reason, as he had only 5 homers in 58 games before going down with that injury. He’s simply not geared to be a power hitter at this point in his career, but he’s still so young it would be silly to cap his power upside at this point. He makes so much contact with a 9.6% K% (top 1% of the league) that he doesn’t need to have an extreme launch angle to knock a healthy amount of dingers out, and an 8.2 degree launch is far from hopeless. He also stole 8 bags in 83 games, giving hope he will be more of a mid teens guy than a 10 or under guy. It wasn’t the breakout we were hoping for, but we can’t pine for prospects to get called up in their early 20’s before their prime, and then bemoan the fact they aren’t putting up prime numbers immediately. I’m staying patient and holding strong on his ranking. 2023 Projection: 92/18/76/.292/.348/.447/16 Prime Projection: 106/24/85/.314/.378/.492/15

17) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 30.6 – It’s clear that Betts is entering the back nine of his career, but a superstar talent like this has some tricks in their bag to slow that decline. He cranked a career high 35 homers in 142 games, and he did it by jumping on the first pitch 30.4% of the time, which is a career high by far (19.1% in 2021). The signs of decline could be seen with his sprint speed not bouncing back from an injury filled 2021, and he now has very slightly below average speed (49th percentile). His 14 steal attempts were a career low (other than the shortened 2020). His BA didn’t bounce back either, sitting at .269, and his xBA is saying it isn’t a fluke (.254 xBA). The adjustments Betts’ is making gives hope he can maintain elite, or near elite levels for a few more years, but it’s hard to completely ignore the red flags that have popped up here and there. 2023 Projection: 110/30/78/.277/.351/.527/14

18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 30.6 – Odds are Bryce Harper is on a win now team in Dynasty, and with news he’s likely to be out for a few months into 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, I would go sniffing around to see if you can land him for any kind of a discount. Tommy John surgery is not nearly as big of a deal for hitters as it pitchers, and it’s very likely he returns to prime form. It also feels like the guy is 35 years old already because he’s been in the league since he was 19, but he’s still only 30 and should have several more years of elite production left. He’s in that true elite of the elite class of player that has a real chance of killing it deep into his 30’s. Harper would have been essentially untouchable before this injury, but now the window is open just a crack, and I would go after him regardless of where my team is in the contention cycle. 2023 Projection: 56/18/54/.281/.380/.525/6

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THIS ARTICLE AND TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 43 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100 COMING LATER IN THE OFF-SEASON)
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 68 C//Top 95 1B//Top 105 2B//Top 115 3B//Top 151 SS
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Team Reports on Patreon
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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

St. Louis Cardinals 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the St. Louis Cardinals 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 43 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100 COMING LATER IN THE OFF-SEASON)
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: TOP 68 C//TOP 95 1B//Top 105 2B//Top 115 3B
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago Cubs (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Los Angeles Dodgers (free)—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

Hitters

Lars Nootbaar STL, OF, 25.7 – A Nootbaar is like one of the those healthy, organic, 90% cocoa dark chocolate bars. It’s an adult snack that is heart healthy. It has an excellent plate approach (20.5%/14.7% K%/BB%), hits the ball hard (91.7 MPH EV), and is fast (28.2 ft/sec sprint). It’s a sensible snack that fits into a healthy diet. But it lacks that flair factor. It’s got no caramel, no peanut butter, no nuts, no nougat. It has a line drive approach (10.7 degree launch) and it’s never been a big base stealer, so you can’t expect big homer and steal totals. You’re not getting that flavor explosion. “Everything in moderation, even moderation,” is possibly the most important words to live by, and it applies here. A team full of Nootbaar’s will be boring, but he can be the perfect piece to fit into a more high risk, high reward lineup. 2023 Projection: 79/20/74/.258/.351/.454/8

Tyler O’Neill STL, OF, 27.10 – O’Neill wasn’t able to back up his 2021 breakout with a .700 OPS in 96 games battling a variety of injuries throughout the year, but I only look at it as a buying opportunity. He matured at the plate with a career best 26.9% K% and career best 9.9% BB%. His .331 xwOBA was much better than his .307 wOBA. The power/speed combo was still beastly with a 96.1 MPH FB/LD EV and 29.8 ft/sec sprint. He’s setting up for a monster 2023 and there is now a buying opportunity you should jump all over. 2023 Projection: 81/29/89/.254/.326/.492/18

Juan Yepez STL, 1B/OF, 25.1 – Yepez has a defense problem, which might not be as big of a deal on another team, but with Goldy locked in at 1B and St. Louis’ prowess in developing underrated hitters (and property rated hitters too), it’s a big deal. He put up a 109 wRC+ on the back of his contact/power profile, but his negative 9.8 defensive value made him a 0.1 WAR player in 76 games. His contact/power combo also isn’t quite huge enough to really force St. Louis’ hand with an average 22.3% K% and below average 86.5 MPH EV (the 93.6 MPH FB/LD EV is above average). His 5.8% BB% led to a .296 OBP, which is really unacceptable for a bat only player. Yepez has Gorman, Jordan Walker, and Alec Burleson all nipping on his heels for at bats. You simply can’t trust he has a full time job, and it seems very likely that he doesn’t. 2023 Projection: 51/19/57/.248/.309/.460/0

Starting Pitchers

 Jack Flaherty STL, RHP, 27.6 – Don’t get pulled in on the name value. A shoulder injury completely wrecked Flaherty’s season, limiting him to 36 IP, and nothing looked resolved when he returned in September. His control was completely gone with a 13.2% BB% and his whiff% hit a career low 25.5%. You can say you are buying the track record and giving him a pass, but he’s been bad for years now with a 5.03 xERA in 2020, 4.89 xERA in 2021, and 4.94 xERA in 2022. His stuff was mostly back and he still induced weak contact, so I don’t think he he is a complete lost cause, but his injury and performance risk would prevent me from acquiring him at anything other than a sweet heart price. 2023 Projection: 8/3.98/1.28/140 in 140 IP

Jordan Montgomery STL, LHP, 29.9 – Montgomery credited his extra success with St. Louis (3.11 ERA vs. 3.69 ERA in NY) on their trust in letting him throw his 4-seamer more, but considering he was starting to fall apart a bit at the end of the season (4.97 ERA in final 38 IP), I’m leaning towards it just being small sample variation. He’s a damn good pitcher no matter how you slice it with 2 bat missing secondaries in his curveball (41.4% whiff%) and changeup (41% whiff%), to go along with plus control of the entire 5 pitch arsenal (5% BB%). If he feels more comfortable going to the 4-seamer more, it didn’t seem to hurt him at the very least. 2023 Projection: 11/3.56/1.18/160 in 170 IP

Bullpen

Ryan Helsley STL, Closer, 28.9 – Helsley doesn’t have the name value or the track record, but that is all that is holding him back from being a legitimate option for first closer off the board. He put up a 1.25 ERA with a 39.3%/8.4% K%/BB% in 64.2 IP. He throws a 99.6 MPH fastball with a slider that put up a 53.5% whiff% and a curve that had a .071 xwOBA. Losing his control is the only thing that could stop him. 2023 Projection: 4/2.67/1.02/90/30 saves in 62 IP

Top 10 St. Louis Cardinals Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Jordan Walker STL, 3B/OF, 20.11 – Nobody smashes the ball as hard as the 6’5”, 220 pound Walker. One thing we don’t have to worry about is him getting to the majors and putting up like an 84 MPH EV. He’s gonna hit it hard. He was a 20 year old at Double-A and ripped 19 homers with 31 doubles in 119 games, good for a 128 wRC+. He then wrecked the AFL with 5 homers, 6 doubles, and a .925 OPS in 21 games. He has some swing and miss in his game, but it’s far from the danger zone with a 21.6%/10.8% K%/BB%, and he has plus speed with 22 steals, although considering his size, you might not want to count on him majorly in that category. He started to transition to the OF, which gives him a path to playing time with Arenado locked in at 3B. 2023 Projection: 42/12/47/.251/.326/.461/7 Prime Projection: 92/33/105/.267/.346/.513/12

2) Tink Hence STL, RHP, 20.8 – Say hello to the 2024 top pitching prospect in baseball. Hence was treated with kid gloves in 2022, never going over 4 IP, but he checked literally every other box. His stuff is straight filthy with 4 potentially plus pitches (mid 90’s fastball, curve, slider, change), he has an extremely athletic delivery with insane arm speed that reminds me a bit of Pedro Martinez, and his numbers were lights out with a pitching line of 2.16/0.96/81/15 in 52.1 IP at Single-A. He’s certainly getting plenty of hype right now, but it’s going to look like nothing compared to the hype explosion that’s coming in 2023. I was just able to nab him at 44th overall in the Toolshed Prospect Mock with other prospect writers/podcasters, so I think his price could still be relatively reasonable this off-season. He’s a buy high. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 14/3.29/1.09/205 in 180 IP

3) Masyn Winn STL, SS, 21.0 – The risk with Winn is that he just doesn’t hit the ball hard enough, and while he has a good hit tool, a 20.1% K% isn’t close to elite. If he puts up an 86 MPH EV with a 25% K% in his MLB debut it wouldn’t be all that surprising. A CJ Abrams situation could be on the horizon where his price takes a drop after his debut. Power is often the last tool to come with prospects though, so you don’t want to dismiss plus hit/speed combos who don’t have big power at 20 years old. This could be a mid 20’s breakout scenario rather than a guy who steps into the bigs and immediately sets the world on fire. An Andres Gimenez type come up would be the optimal path. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 81/15/63/.270/.333/.421/24

4) Alec Burleson STL, OF, 24.4 – Burleson is a St. Louis special. An underrated hitter who has quietly been raking forever. St. Louis’ ability to produce these types of prospects is likely a combo of superior scouting and superior development. He put up a 137 wRC+ with 20 homers and a 14.3% K% in 109 games at Triple-A. He made his MLB debut and while the surface stats didn’t look good with a .535 OPS in 53 PA, the underlying numbers looked good with a 91.7 MPH EV, 17.9%/9.4% K%/BB%, and .322 xwOBA. The upside might not be huge with a line drive approach, and he’ll have to scratch and claw for playing time, but I’m pretty confident in saying this guy is going to be a legit MLB hitter. 2023 Projection: 29/9/33/.262/.311/.430/1 Prime Projection: 76/23/81/.277/.330/.451/2

5) Cooper Hjerpe STL, LHP, 21.7 – Selected 22nd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Hjerpe is a classic Cardinals pick of a rock solid, safe starter who might be better in real life than fantasy. I say “might be,” because he has that funky lefty delivery that I am an absolute sucker for, but I’m also staying conservative on his ranking because the stuff says more 3/4 type starter with a low 90’s fastball, and I’m concerned more advanced hitters won’t be quite as thrown off by the delivery. Regardless, he dominated the Pac12 with a 2.53 ERA and 161/23 K/BB in 103.1 IP, and he’s in a great developmental organization. If you play in a deep league or league where good real life pitchers get bumps, I can definitely see targeting Hjerpe. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 12/3.87/1.24/ 172 in 172 IP

6) Gordon Graceffo STL, RHP, 23.0 – Graceffo has big stuff with a fastball he can get into the upper 90’s, and he has plus control with a 6.3% BB% at Double-A, but the strikeout numbers leave something to be desired. He put up a pitching line of 3.94/1.07/83/24 in 93.2 IP at Double-A. It was good for a 4.63 xFIP. He didn’t put up big K numbers in college either, although he was able to destroy High-A with a 33.9% K% in 45.2 IP, so there could be more in the tank. He’s a big dude at 6’4”, 210 pounds with a herky jerky righty delivery that doesn’t exactly scream upside. He strikes me as a #4 type starter who could play up with St. Louis’ excellent defense behind him. 2023 Projection: 1/4.38/1.31/12 in 15 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.94/1.24/161 in 175 IP

7) Joshua Baez STL, OF, 19.9 – The 6’4”, 220 pound Baez has big time power with big time strikeout issues. He hit 3 homers with a 170 wRC+ in 20 games at Single-A, but it came with a 38% K%. He had a 32.6% in 12 games at rookie ball too. He’s not just a hulking slugger, he’s a good athlete with some speed, stealing 10 bags in 32 games. He’ll still be firmly 19 years old when the 2023 starts, which is a similar age to the incoming rookie class, so he’s ahead of the game. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/25/82/.242/.324/.472/8

8) Matthew Liberatore STL, LHP, 23.5 – Liberatore managed to get worse his 2nd run through Triple-A. He put up a 4.04 ERA in 124.2 IP in 2021, and then a 5.17 ERA in 115 IP in 2022. His MLB debut didn’t go much better with a 5.97 ERA and 17.4%/11.2% K%/BB% in 34.2 IP. The numbers don’t look great, but he has the stuff and repertoire to be a mid to back end starter. He throws a 5 pitch mix led by a beautiful plus curveball that is a plus pitch, putting up a .259 xwOBA and 35.2% whiff%. He combines that with a 93.7 MPH fastball that is his most used pitch, a 92.8 MPH sinker that was not effective at inducing grounders (14 degree launch), a 85.9 MPH changeup that got destroyed, and a 86 MPH slider that is his least used pitch but was excellent when he went to it (.176 xwOBA). Even watching him in the minors I thought it was clear he has to go to his curve more (and slider more too). He’s not a finished product, but the ingredients are there for him to turn into a solid MLB starter if he can find the right pitch mix. 2023 Projection: 3/4.41/1.36/71 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 10/4.12/1.29/158 in 170 IP

9) Jonathan Mejia STL, SS, 18.0 – The switch hitting Mejia cracked my 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings at #999, and he proved he deserved to be on the list with a strong pro debut in the DSL, slashing .267/.418/.479 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 23.1%/15.9% K%/BB% in 45 games. It was good for a 145 wRC+. He’s not the type who is likely to explode to elite prospect status, but there is potential for an above average hit/power combo at peak. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 75/21/78/.268/.331/.444/6

10) Ivan Herrera STL, C, 22.10 – Contreras’ signing with St. Louis makes Herrera a back up for the foreseeable future. He hit 6 homers with a 50.8% GB% in 65 games at Triple-A and then put up a 85.2 MPH EV with 0 barrels in 22 PA in his MLB debut. He has a strong plate approach with above average contact rates and plus walk rates throughout his minor league career, so while he could be a solid real life hitter, he’s not a fantasy target. 2023 Projection: 6/1/8/.242/.308/.388/0 Prime Projection: 61/16/65/.265/.337/.421/2

11) Moises Gomez STL, OF, 24.7 – It’s hard to ignore a guy who cranked 39 homers in the upper minors and was more or less age appropriate for the levels, but a 34.7% K% is equally hard to ignore. Gomez is a corner OF bat without a clear path to playing time and major hit tool risk. The huge power season puts him back on the map, but he’s trending towards a bench power bat. 2023 Projection: 9/3/11/.211/.290/.417/1 Prime Projection: 42/15/47/.226/.305/.437/3

12) Michael McGreevy STL, RHP, 22.9 – McGreevy is the classic arm who holds more value in very deep leagues. He doesn’t have big stuff with a low 90’s fastball, and he isn’t a strikeout pitcher with a measly 18.4% K% in 99 IP at Double-A. It led to a 4.64 ERA. He’s a back end starter. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 9/4.21/1.32/140 in 165 IP

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

I have some thoughts on a few recent signings:

Noah Syndergaard signs with the Dodgers for 1 year, $13 million – This one almost feels too easy. Like we’re falling into a trap. Thor is a shell of his former self, but he accepted that reality and was barely throwing his 4-seamer by the end of the season. He has the skills to transition into more of a finesse pitcher with plus control over a 5 pitch mix, and he still throws respectably hard with a 93.6 MPH sinker and 94.1 MPH 4-seamer. If anybody can unlock every drop of upside left in this tank, it’s the Dodgers. I don’t think he’s all of a sudden going to turn into a strikeout machine with them, but I’m expecting strong ratios and wins. I’m buying back in as a Top 200 ish dynasty asset.

Carlos Correa signs with SF for 13 years, $350 million – I was already fading Correa’s boring fantasy profile, and with his move to San Francisco, I’m even further off him. SF has the 2nd worst park in the league for righty homers, and while it plays around neutral in general, homers are king for fantasy. I’m not seeing a path to fantasy upside. He ranked 120th on my Top 150 Sneak Peek of the Top 1,000 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings.

Carlos Rodon signs with the Yanks for 6 years, $162 million – Rodon is the type of elite starter where you don’t sweat the small stuff. He gets a ballpark and stress downgrade signing with the Yanks, but elite stuff conquers all. There is still injury risk, but obviously the Yanks felt comfortable enough with him to give him a 6 year deal. The move to NY doesn’t change his value for me in either direction.

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago Cubs (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Los Angeles Dodgers (free)—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 43 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100 COMING LATER IN THE OFF-SEASON)
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: TOP 68 C//TOP 95 1B//Top 105 2B//Top 115 3B
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Chicago Cubs 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Chicago Cubs 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 43 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100 COMING LATER IN THE OFF-SEASON)
-A TOP 150 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: TOP 68 C//TOP 95 1B//Top 105 2B
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Los Angeles Dodgers (free)—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

Hitters

Christopher Morel CHC, OF, 23.9 – Morel still has his lack of prospect love baked into his price, because if he got the hype he deserved, you wouldn’t be able to get him at such a good price this off-season. He destroyed Triple-A with a 147 wRC+ in 28 games and then smacked up MLB pitching with a 13.4% Barrel% and 89.6/95.6 MPH AVG/FB EV. Not many 22/23 year old rookies step into the majors and hit the ball that hard. He’s also very fast with a 28.8 ft/sec sprint speed. The skills are there for Morel to be a household name. A legit star. The hit tool is the one thing that could hold him back with a 32.2% K% and 38.3% whiff%, but his 28.6% Chase% is actually league average and he never had strikeout issues to this level in the minors. I’m betting on the K’s coming down, allowing the power/speed combo to shine. He fell off in the 2nd half of the season, but he had a 93.6 MPH EV in September, so I’m not too concerned. He’s a high upside, semi-proven youngster who should be impossible to acquire. Love him as a target. 2023 Projection: 77/23/79/.247/.320/.441/14

Seiya Suzuki CHC, OF, 28.8 – I projected Suzuki for a .264 BA and .336 OBP last off-season in the 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings, and he ended up hitting .262 with a .336 OBP. Not too bad if I don’t say so myself. I was a little too heavy on the power (.463 projected SLG vs. .433 actual SLG), but taking into account the dead ball, that was probably pretty close too. I wrote in the 2022 Top 1,000, “I’m not expecting him to step into the majors and be a star, but he looks like a great bet to be a damn good overall hitter,” and that is more or less exactly how it played out with a 116 wRC+. Now that he was a full year under his belt to get acclimated, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take a step forward in 2023. 2023 Projection: 81/23/74/.267/.339/.451/11

Nico Hoerner CHC, 2B/SS, 25.11 – I want to like Hoerner more, but I’m struggling to get over the poor 87.2/89.8 MPH AVG/FB EV which led to a below average .301 xwOBA and terrible 2.6% Barrel%. He also had a below average walk rate (5.4% BB%) and Chase% (33.7%). He’s a plus contact guy (11% K%) with plus speed (29.1 ft/sec sprint), so while crushing the ball isn’t necessarily his game, I think there’s a chance the bottom falls out offensively. It doesn’t worry me enough to stay away from him, but he’s not someone I am going to make sure I get. There are other lower cost speed options who I like the value on more. 2023 Projection: 76/10/62/.275/.324/.406/18

Starting Pitchers

Justin Steele CHC, LHP, 27.9 – Steele’s the type you put a star next to their name as you start to fill out of the back half of your fantasy rotation. He induces weak contact (87.1 MPH EV), keeps the ball on the ground (51.2% GB%), and misses bats (24.6% K%). That’s a great combo of skills. It led to a 3.18 ERA and 126 K’s in 119 IP. The one snafu is his control, putting up a 9.8% BB% and 1.35 WHIP, but even without control improvements that 1.35 WHIP feels high to me. He mostly went to this fastball/slider combo in 2022, but he has a 5 pitch mix and the curve and change performed very well in small doses. The overriding point is there are a few avenues of improvement, whether it be pitch mix changes and/or refining his control. I’m not going to stick my neck out for him, but I would be happy to roster Steele in leagues of all sizes in 2023. 2023 Projection: 9/3.66/1.27/157 in 150 IP

Bullpen

Brandon Hughes CHC, Closer Committee, 27.4 – There is a long off-season to go, but it doesn’t seem like a bad bet that Hughes will be able to get through it with at least a share of the closer job. His slider put up elite level whiffs with a 49.1% whiff% and it led to a 3.12 ERA with 68 K’s in 57.2 IP in his rookie year. He was untouchable in the minors with a 1.96 ERA and 124/34 K/BB in 91.2 IP from 2021-22). His 9.2% BB% isn’t great, and he’s not a flame thrower with a 93.2 MPH fastball, but he doesn’t have a ton of experience pitching, which leads me to believe there could be more room to grow than a typical 27 year old. If you wait on saves, Hughes is looking mighty juicy right now. 2023 Projection: 4/3.52/1.17/77/22 saves in 63 IP

Top 10 Chicago Cubs Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.0 – Armstrong had the power breakout I predicted in my Predicting the 2023 Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects from last off-season, writing, “Armstrong will not only pick up where he left off before he underwent shoulder surgery, he will show power potential many people doubt he has.” He ended up jacking 16 homers in 101 games split between Single-A and High-A. His speed wasn’t undersold either as he nabbed 32 bases. His plus CF defense will get him on the field, he has a good feel to hit, plus speed, and developing power. That is a beautiful fantasy profile. He’s not a finished product as his plate approach took a step back at the more age appropriate High-A with a mediocre 24%/4.9% K%/BB% in 63 games, but he could explode to elite prospect status if he performs in the upper minors in 2023. There is still a small buy window. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/18/66/.273/.335/.431/26

2) Matt Mervis CHC, 1B, 25.0 – The Marvelous Mr. Mervis set the baseball world on fire with his AFL performance, smashing 6 homers with a .914 OPS in 17 games, but being brutally honest, the .262 BA and .324 OBP isn’t super impressive for a 24 year old who was almost 2 years older than the average player. It’s also an extreme offensive environment. I always caution against putting too much stock into the AFL numbers, but in Mervis’ case, it wasn’t just the AFL, he ripped up the upper minors too, slashing .309/.379/.606 with 36 homers and a 18.5%/8.7% K%/BB% in 137 games split between 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). There is some platoon risk as he hits righties much better than lefties, and this was definitely the best year of his career by far with massive gains to both his power and contact, so there is some “career year” type risk here too. Chicago’s 1B job is wide open, but they have been rumored to be in the 1B market, so his path to playing time might not end up as clear as it’s looking right now. 2023 Projection: 59/20/66/.252/.317/.458/1 Prime Projection: 77/29/89/.264/.329/.482/2

3) Brennen Davis CHC, OF, 23.5 – 2022 was the first speed bump in Davis’ career, and you can’t completely jump ship at the very first sign of struggle with a prospect as talented as Davis. You have to give him a chance to overcome adversity. He underwent back surgery and struggled at Triple-A both before and after the injury with a 77 wRC+ in 44 games at Triple-A. He played in the AFL where he teased his huge potential with a 1.048 OPS in 5 games, but was then shutdown with “general soreness” which they claim is unrelated to the back injury. No two ways about it, it was a disaster year, but years like this happen in baseball. He’s still an elite athlete at 6’4”, 210 pounds. I would be surprised if he didn’t come back with a big year in 2023. 2023 Projection: 29/9/33/.229/.304/.430/4 Prime Projection: 79/27/82/.253/.332/.470/8

4) Kevin Alcantara CHC, OF, 20.9 – Alcantara didn’t have the huge statistical breakout, but he still hit damn well, slashing .273/.360/.451 with 15 homers, 14 steals, and a 24.8%/11.1% K%/BB% in 112 games at Single-A. He’s a physical specimen at 6’6”, 188 pounds and is an excellent athlete, playing mostly in CF. He’s extremely easy to dream on with upside for days. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/26/81/.250/.327/.466/11

5) Hayden Wesneski CHC, RHP, 25.4 – Wesneski impressed in his MLB debut with a pitching line of 2.18/0.94/33/7 in 33 IP. He did it on the back of near elite control (5.3% BB%) and weak contact (84.5 MPH EV against). I’m still staying a bit hesitant because he didn’t show this level of control or production at Triple-A with a 3.92 ERA and 106/33 K/BB in 110.1 IP, and his stuff isn’t exactly overpowering with a 93.1 MPH fastball and a slider that put up a decent, but not elite 33.3% whiff%. He throws a 5 pitch mix and he understands the art of the pitching, so I think he’ll be a solid MLB starter, but I’m not sure he’s going to be a fantasy difference maker. 2023 Projection: 8/4.15/1.28/136 in 145 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.86/1.22/171 in 170 IP

6) Alexander Canario CHC, OF, 22.11 – Canario has one of the most visually explosive swings in the minors. If a bazooka played baseball, it would swing like Canario. He demolished 37 homers in 125 games split across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). He has speed too with 23 steals. It’s the hit tool that is the issue. He had a 27.5% K% overall, and his BA tanked to .248 at Double-A, .231 at Triple-A, and .172 in the Dominican Winter League. Speaking of the Dominican Winter League, he suffered a serious injury on the bases which required surgery for a broken ankle and dislocated shoulder. His availability for the start of 2023 is in question. When healthy, I have no doubt he’ll do damage against any level of pitcher, but it just might come with a batting average that flirts with the Mendoza line. 2023 Projection: 28/10/33/.219/.297/.431/5 Prime Projection: 71/27/79/.232/.314/.458/10

7) Cade Horton CHC, RHP, 21.7 – Selected 7th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Horton underwent Tommy John surgery in February 2021, so he was just rounding into form during the 2nd half of 2022, resulting in him peaking during the College World Series with dominant outing after dominant outing. Plus mid 90’s heat with an at least plus slider is his game, and that combo gives him high upside with the floor of a high leverage reliever. He also throws a curve and change, and he hasn’t shown any major control issues in the short time he’s pitched in college (53.2 IP in his college career all coming this year). Chicago is clearly taking advantage of the lack of track record and betting on the upside. It’s your call if you want to do the same. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/3.82/1.27/180 in 163 IP

8) James Triantos CHC, 3B, 20.2 – Triantos has a short and quick righty swing that is made for contact. He had a 16.1%/7.7% K%/BB% with a .272 BA in 113 games at Single-A. The power just isn’t here yet with only 7 homers and a .386 slugging, and quite frankly, he’s already pretty thick. I’m sure he will add more power considering he’s barely 20 years old, but he’s definitely a hit tool first player. He’s not a burner, but he does have some speed, nabbing 20 bags in 23 attempts. It’s not my favorite profile to go after in fantasy, but he’s a safe prospect with solid across the board potential. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 84/18/66/.281/.342/.429/11

9) Owen Caissie CHC, OF, 20.9 – Caissie didn’t have a huge statistical season with a 113 wRC+ and 11 homers in 105 games, but taking into account Chicago gave him an aggressive assignment to High-A as a 19 year old, it’s not bad at all. He’s the same age as Kevin Alcantara who they sent to Single-A for comparison. Caissie’s 6’4”, 190 pounds with a smooth lefty swing that is a geared for both power and average, but he’ll have to cut down on the K’s to maximize both with a 28.6% K%. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 74/25/78/.248/.332/.452/4

10) Moises Ballesteros CHC, C, 19.5 – Most of the 2022 catcher breakouts are getting the full hype treatment, but Ballesteros is just chillin in corner waiting to get his fair due. Ballesteros is built like a slightly taller, lefty swinging version of Alejandro Kirk, and his profile isn’t that far off from Kirk’s, except the hit tool isn’t quite on that level. He was a former high priced international signing who handled his business in 2021 in the DSL with a 128 wRC+ and 12.8%/16.6% K%/BB% in 48 games. He debuted in stateside rookie ball in 2022 with added power, jacking 7 homers in 32 games, while proving the plus plate approach is for real with a 17.3%/11.8% K%/BB%. He put the cherry on top of his season by making his full season debut and putting up a 109 wRC+ with a 21.7%/14% K%/BB% in 31 games as an 18 year old. The other catcher breakouts overshadowing Ballesteros’ impressive season creates a buying opportunity, making him one of my top prospect catcher targets for 2023. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 69/23/76/.270/.342/.462/1

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

With the signings of Koudai Senga to the Mets for 5 years, $75 million and Masataka Yoshida to the Red Sox for 5 years, $90 million, the question turns to when to jump on these guys in First Year Players Drafts. Well, I would argue the question should be if these guys should be included in off-season prospect drafts to begin with. They will be 30 and 29 years old this season. They should really be included in the MLB draft/auction. Including them in a prospect draft completely defeats the purpose of having a separate prospect draft, which is that you aren’t forced to choose between solid MLB vets and high upside teenagers. But I know these guys will be included in prospect drafts in most leagues, so let’s get down to business. In general, my strategy in First Year Player Drafts and off-season prospects drafts is to strike gold on the next Julio/Acuna/Soto etc … This is your chance to hit on future superstars or future top 5 prospects who you can trade for current superstars. It’s not really the place to go after a mid rotation starter (Senga) or a solid OF bat (Yoshida). You can get that type of production in the MLB draft/auction. In very deep leagues where there might literally be nothing on the waiver wire, I can see taking either Senga or Yoshida as high as 3rd overall. Zero chance I’m passing on Druw Jones or Jackson Holliday for either of them in any size league. In shallow to medium size leagues, I wouldn’t start to consider Senga until after my Top 7 are off the board in my Top 43 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings, and Masataka until my Top 13 are off the board.

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Los Angeles Dodgers (free)—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 43 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100 COMING LATER IN THE OFF-SEASON)
-A TOP 150 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: TOP 68 C//TOP 95 1B//TOP 105 2B
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Los Angeles Dodgers 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Los Angeles Dodgers 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 43 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100 COMING LATER IN THE OFF-SEASON)
-A TOP 150 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: TOP 68 C//TOP 95 1B
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—Texas Rangers—Washington Nationals

Starting Pitchers

Dustin May LAD, RHP, 25.7 – May returned from Tommy John surgery in late August, and while he wasn’t able to seamlessly pick up from his 2021 breakout, he showed the ingredients to get back there in 2023. He continued to throw the 97.2 MPH sinker much less in favor of his 98.1 MPH 4 seamer and secondaries (curve, cutter, change), which drove his 2021 breakout. The improved whiff% remained with a strong 29.7% whiff%, and he kept the ball on the ground as always with a 4.7 degree launch. Control is often the last thing to come back after returning from Tommy John, and that proved true for May as he had a career worst by a mile 11% BB%, which led to the poor 4.50 ERA in 30 IP. He’s had plus to elite control his entire career though, so I would be shocked if that didn’t bounce back in 2023. You have one last off-season to buy into May, because he’s headed for a monster 2023. He ranked 62nd overall on A Top 104 Sneak Peek of the 2023 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings over on Patreon. 2023 Projection: 12/3.32/1.08/160 in 150 IP

Tony Gonsolin LAD, RHP, 28.11 – Gonsolin was one of my biggest, if not my biggest hit of 2022. I hyped him to death all off-season with him going for a sweetheart price, and he exploded with near ace numbers, putting up a pitching line of 2.14/0.86/119/35 in 130.1 IP. A forearm injury knocked him out for all of September, but he was able to return before the end of the season. He throws a 93.1 MPH fastball with 3 plus secondaries in his splitter, slider, and curve. It led to an above average 23.9%/7.0% K%/BB%. His 3.12 xERA is likely more representative of his true talent level, but he now has a career 2.51 ERA over 4 seasons (272.2 IP). He’ll regress in 2023, but there’s no reason he won’t continue to be a damn good pitcher in one of the best organizations in the game. 2023 Projection: 13/3.42/1.12/148 in 155 IP

Hitters

Gavin Lux LAD, 2B, 25.4 – Lux seems to be afflicted with the curse of Starlin Castro. A once elite prospect who doesn’t bust, but becomes just another guy. He put up a measly 6 homers with 7 steals in 471 PA. His .276 BA was one of the few things he did well, but you can’t even truly count on that as his xBA was .247. The frustrating part it is that the skills that made him an elite prospect are still there. He has an above average plate approach (20.2%/10% K%/BB%) with plus speed (28.9 ft/sec sprint) and some pop (93.3 MPH FB/LD EV). He’s been an average MLB hitter in his age 21-24 year old seasons with a .316 xwOBA (MLB average is .315). The problem is that it hasn’t translated to fantasy success, and unless he starts running a whole lot more out of nowhere (which is possible), going out of your way to acquire Lux would likely be factoring in too much of his former prospect hype. We have to value him as he is, not as we hoped he would be, which is a better real life hitter than fantasy who does still have some upside. 2023 Projection: 76/14/63/.268/.337/.413/14

Max Muncy LAD, 3B/2B, 32.7 – It’s pretty clear Muncy deserves a pass for his rough season. He came into the year with a torn UCL that was not fully healed, and it led to a .613 OPS in his first 83 games. It was obvious when he started to fell better though. By August and September he was back to his old tricks, slashing .247/.358/.500 with 12 homers and a 56/31 K/BB in his final 53 games. I have to imagine another full off-season away from the injury will only help further. He’s an easy buy for a win now team. Use the down year and advanced age to nab one of the premier power bats in the game for what is sure to be a very reasonable price. That goes doubly in OBP leagues. 2023 Projection: 89/32/88/.243/.361/.502/2

Cody Bellinger FRA, OF, 27.9 – Bellinger technically did bounce back, well, maybe not bounce back, but he bounced, from a .542 OPS in 2021 to a .654 OPS in 2022, which is obviously not what we were hoping for. He continued to hit the ball in the air a ton (20.3 degree launch) with a weak 92.3 MPH EV FB/LD EV, and it led to a .210 BA (.213 xBA). He put up 95+ MPH FB/LD EV’s in 2017-2019. His Max EV’s tell the same tale, with it going from 112.8 MPH in 2017 to 107.3 MPH in 2022. His loss of power is almost biblical, Samson style. There one day, gone the next. Even his formerly great plate approach has been shattered to pieces with a 27.3%/6.9% K%/BB%. The shoulder injury seems to be a pretty clear demarcation of when it really fell apart. Maybe the league was starting to figure him out a bit too. Either way, everything is trending in the wrong direction, and the Dodgers non tendering him this off-season really drives the point home on how far he’s fallen. 2023 Projection: 76/23/74/.227/.308/.421/15

Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 30.6 – It’s clear that Betts is entering the back nine of his career, but a superstar talent like this has some tricks in their bag to slow that decline. He cranked a career high 35 homers in 142 games, and he did it by jumping on the first pitch 30.4% of the time, which is a career high by far (19.1% in 2021). The signs of decline could be seen with his sprint speed not bouncing back from an injury filled 2021, and he now has very slightly below average speed (49th percentile). His 14 steal attempts were a career low (other than the shortened 2020). His BA didn’t bounce back either, sitting at .269, and his xBA is saying it isn’t a fluke (.254 xBA). The adjustments Betts’ is making gives hope he can maintain elite, or near elite levels for a few more years, but it’s hard to completely ignore the red flags that have popped up here and there. 2023 Projection: 110/30/78/.277/.351/.527/14

Top 10 Los Angeles Dodgers Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Miguel Vargas LAD, 3B, 23.4 – Vargas made his MLB debut in 2022 and while he only put up a .455 OPS in 50 PA, there is nothing I love more than seeing rookies hit the ball hard. He had a well above average 89.7/94.1 MPH AVG/FB EV. He’s also much faster than advertised with a 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed which in the top 6% of the league. He had no trouble lifting the ball with a 25.7 degree launch angle and has no swing and miss issues with an average 24.3% whiff%. His elite plate approach at Triple-A (14.6%/13.7% K%/BB%) shows better days are likely ahead there too. Speaking of Triple-A, he slashed .304/.304/.511 with 17 homers and 16 steals in 113 games. He’s currently the favorite to be LA’s starting 3B in 2023, and the numbers indicate this guy has star potential. 2023 Projection: 72/21/75/.258/.327/.445/11 Prime Projection: 93/27/87/.272/.345/.483/15

2) Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 24.0 – Miller is 6’5”, 220 pounds with ace level stuff. He throws a fastball that sits in the upper 90’s, a filthy upper 80’s changeup that gets about 10 MPH separation from the fastball, and a plus slider (he mixes in a good curve too). His 4.25 ERA in 112.1 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A was surprisingly underwhelming considering the stuff. Part of it is because his fastball is relatively hittable, and while he doesn’t have major control problems, he’s no Greg Maddux. The delivery isn’t super athletic either. The other part of it is likely bad luck as his 30.5%/8.1% K%/BB% and 3.47 xFIP at Double-A looks much better than the 4.45 ERA he put up at the level. He has ace upside, and with the Dodgers’ pitching development prowess, mid-rotation might be his floor. Don’t be surprised if he wins that 5th rotation spot straight out of camp, and while the Dodgers could easily sign a vet, they have enough holes to fill on offense I think they might leave the spot open for a young gun. 2023 Projection: 8/3.85/1.26/122 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.48/1.18/202 in 180 IP

3) Gavin Stone LAD, RHP, 24.6 – Stone put up a miniscule 1.48 ERA in 121.2 IP spread across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA), and he thoroughly dominated each level equally with his 1.16 ERA in 23.1 IP at Triple-A being his best mark. It’s all about the elite changeup, which is extremely hard for batters to pick up and dives at the last second. He combines that with mid 90’s heat while mixing in a slider, cutter, and sinker. He’ll be right in the mix for that 5th starter job. 2023 Projection: 6/3.93/1.28/91 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.55/1.19/189 in 170 IP

4) Diego Cartaya LAD, C, 21.7 – Cartaya is neck and neck with Francisco Alvarez for the most power from a prospect catcher, and at 6’3”, 219 pounds, he might surpass him at peak. He jacked 22 homers in 95 games split between Single-A and High-A. Just look at this whip quick swing from the big man. He looks the part of a major leaguer already. He’s an OBP machine with a 14.1% BB%, but the batting average is likely to remain low with some swing and miss issues (26.7% K%). ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 69/32/84/.245/.338/.508/1

5) Michael Busch LAD, 2B/OF, 25.5 – Busch is as easy as it comes to evaluate. He’s a lefty masher with high strikeout and walk rates. He crushed 32 homers with a 167/74 K/BB in 142 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s a poor defensive player, but LA knew that when they took him 31st overall in the 2019 Draft. If he hits, they’ll find a spot for him, and I think he’s gonna hit. 2023 Projection: 34/11/36/.237/.318/.441/2 Prime Projection: 87/28/87/.251/.343/.488/3

6) Andy Pages LAD, OF, 22.4 – Pages’ 102 wRC+ at Double-A doesn’t jump off the page, but he was only 21 year old at the advanced level, and his profile remains the same as a low BA, high OBP slugger. He cracked 26 homers with a 24.9%/10.9% K%/BB% in 132 games. The reason I have Busch ranked over him is that Busch has a launch angle conducive to power and BA, but Pages has an extreme 50.4% flyball percentage which led to a .236 BA. There is very real batting average risk especially if the balls remain dead. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 83/28/87/.241/.330/.479/6

7) Dalton Rushing LAD, C/1B, 22.1 – Selected 40th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Rushing gets the biggest post draft bump after the destruction he left in his wake in pro ball. He slashed .404/.522/.740 with 8 homers and a 16.4%/16.4% K%/BB% in 28 games at Single-A. It’s not like this came out of nowhere either as he jacked 23 homers with a 1.156 OPS in 64 games in the ACC. Tack on the fact he got drafted by one of the best organizations in baseball who have recently developed 2 prospects with a very similar profile (Andy Pages and Michael Busch), and it makes Rushing a no brainer FYPD target. He’s not a lock to stick behind the plate, but the bat will play anywhere, and LA values versatility. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 78/26/81/.253/.337/.461/2

8) Josue De Paula LAD, OF, 17.10 – De Paula might be my favorite DSL breakout. He’s in a great organization, has athletic bloodlines (Stephon Marbury is his cousin), has great size (6’3”, 185), and great production (162 wRC+ with a 13.9%/14.3% K%/BB% in 53 DSL games). He made his first appearance on my in-season Top 300+ Monthly Prospects Rankings in July at 257th overall, and rose all the way to 139th overall on my Top 360 End of Season Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings over on Patreon. DSL prospects are as high risk as they come, but he has a legitimate chance to become one of the next big things. He’s started to get more hype this off-season, but he should still come at a great price in 99% of leagues. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 77/25/84/.271/.336/.473/12

9) Ryan Pepiot LAD, RHP, 25.7 – If Pepiot cracks the Dodgers rotation, this will look too low, because anybody in the Dodgers rotation is good enough for my fantasy rotation, but this is my bet that Miller and Stone will pass him on the depth chart. Not to mention Nastrini, Sheehan, and Frasso who all might be better than Pepiot too. He’s had control problems throughout his career and it hit a crescendo in his MLB debut with a 16.9% BB% in 36.1 IP. All 3 of his pitches get whiffs (fastball, change, slider), but none put up over a 30% whiff%. The fall off the table changeup is the money maker with a .227 xwOBA, which he combines with a 93.9 MPH that he threw 56.2% of the time and an average slider. LA’s depth, his control issues, and his limited repertoire has me leaning towards him being used out of the bullpen. 2023 Projection: 5/3.92/1.32/81 in 75 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.87/1.29/168 in 160 IP (if he sticks with Dodgers, in another org, I would go 4+ ERA)

10) James Outman LAD, OF, 25.10 – I’m a little scared by Outman’s big strikeout rates, but he has undeniable talent and there is a non zero chance he works his way into a large share of playing time in 2023. The close to the majors upside is worth the shot at this point in the rankings. He’s 6’3”, 205 pounds with a powerful lefty swing that cracked 31 homers in 125 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s also a good athlete, nabbing 13 bags. The aforementioned K rate is the issue as it sat at 29% at Double-A and 25% at Triple-A, before spiking to 43.8% in his 16 PA MLB debut. If he didn’t smoke the ball with a 99.6 MPH EV (1.409 OPS) in 6 batted ball events, I might not have been as high on him, and while it’s a small sample, you can’t really fake your way into hitting the ball that hard. I fear he’ll top out as a bench bat, but I’ll grab him if the price is right. 2023 Projection: 42/14/46/.228/.309/.431/5 Prime Projection: 65/19/68/.239/.320/.447/7

Just Missed

11) Nick Nastrini LAD, RHP, 23.1

12) Emmet Sheehan LAD, RHP, 23.4

13) Nick Frasso LAD, RHP, 24.5

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Odds are Bryce Harper is on a win now team in Dynasty, and with news he’s likely to be out for a few months into 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, I would go sniffing around to see if you can land him for any kind of a discount. Tommy John surgery is not nearly as big of a deal for hitters as it pitchers, and it’s very likely he returns to prime form. It also feels like the guy is 35 years old already because he’s been in the league since he was 19, but he’s still only 30 and should have several more years of elite production left. He’s in that true elite of the elite class of player that has a real chance of killing it deep into his 30’s. Harper would have been essentially untouchable before this injury, but now the window is open just a crack, and I would go after him regardless of where my team is in the contention cycle.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 43 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100 COMING LATER IN THE OFF-SEASON)
-A TOP 150 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: TOP 68 C//TOP 95 1B
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—Texas Rangers—Washington Nationals

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

New York Yankees 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the New York Yankees 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 104 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: TOP 65 CATCHERS
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago White Sox—Colorado Rockies—Kansas City Royals—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—Texas Rangers—Washington Nationals

Starting Pitchers

Nestor Cortes NYY, LHP, 28.4 – Cortes might have been my biggest miss on somebody I wasn’t in on and quite clearly should have been. Andrew McCutchen said it best on Twitter, “Nestor Cortes’ fastball plays up. Meaning his 91-94 actually feels like 97. Mix that with him messing with a hitters timing, throwing from diff arm angles, and locating well, he can be very difficult to hit.” I struggled to buy into the low 90’s velocity with a below average whiff%, but he not only proved the profile will play, he also made incremental improvements. The fastball ticked up 1.1 MPH to 91.8 MPH, his 6.2% BB% is a career best and his 24.4% whiff% is now nearly average. It led to a stunning pitching line of 2.44/0.92/163/38 in 158.1 IP. The dead ball also helped, as many big strikeout pitchers started to pitch more like Cortes by pitching to contact and bringing both their K and BB rates down. I’m not making the same mistake I did last year, I’m in on Cortes. 2023 Projection: 13/3.39/1.06/175 in 170 IP

Luis Severino NYY, RHP, 29.1 – Cortes was a miss, but Severino was a definite hit. I love taking the Tommy John discount on established pitchers, and Severino was back to pitching to near elite levels with a pitching line of 3.18/1.00/112/30 in 102 IP. He missed over 2 months with a lat strain, but he looked no worse for the wear when he returned in September. He pumped the fastball in at 96.3 MPH and it put up a career best .299 xwOBA. All 3 of his secondaries were on point with his slider putting up a 41.6% whiff%, his changeup putting up a .259 xwOBA, and he went to his cutter more than ever with a 7.3% usage and 40.6% whiff%. Even with the excellent season, it still seems like he isn’t getting the respect he deserves and remains a target for me. 2023 Projection: 11/3.45/1.10/170 in 155 IP

Frankie Montas NYY, RHP, 30.0 – Montes went from a no pressure situation in the the spacious confines of Oakland, to a high stress situation with the short porch in New York, and it was unsurprisingly not a smooth transition. He had a 3.18 ERA in 104.2 IP with Oakland and a 6.35 ERA in 39.2 IP with New York. Doing it while he just had a shoulder issue he was returning from probably didn’t help things either, and the shoulder issue popped up again at the end of the season. All of this to say I think Montas will be a lot better in year 2 with a full off-season to heal and get comfortable with his new pitching environment. He throws a 5 pitch mix led by a 96.1 MPH fastball and a splitter which is excellent even in a down year with a .223 xwOBA. He has plus control (7.1% BB%) and plus whiff rates (27.6% whiff%). His disaster stint with New York could have him going for a sweetheart price this off-season, and if you’re like me in not wanting to pay up huge for the top aces, Montas will be right in my wheelhouse. 2023 Projection: 11/3.60/1.21/181 in 170 IP

Hitters

Aaron Judge FA, OF, 30.11 – Judge hit only 62 homers this year, not even coming close to the home run record of 73. His cute little 207 wRC+ was bested by Barry Bonds 5 times. He also stole only 16 bases, falling short of the vaunted 20/20 season. It was just a disappointment all around, and as a Yankees fan, it’s unacceptable. Let him walk 😉  2023 Projection: 111/43/109/.286/.398/.562/11

Oswaldo Cabrera NYY, 2B/SS/OF, 24.1 – Cabrera had a very strong MLB Debut with a 111 wRC+, 6 homers, and 3 steals in 44 games, but I’m still staying hesitant. He outperformed his underlying numbers with a .322 wOBA vs. .287 xwOBA, he doesn’t hit the ball hard enough with a 86.8 MPH EV, he’s not that fast with a 54.9% percentile sprint speed rank, and he has below average swing and miss rates (25.7% K% and 26.9% whiff%). He also went 2 for 28 in the playoffs. Josh Rojas isn’t the worst comp, but Cabrera hits the ball in the air a lot more which gives him higher power upside and lower BA downside. He seems to be setting up for a super utility role, especially for a team like the Yankees who can open the pocketbook to fill holes. 2023 Projection: 51/14/47/.242/.309/.418/10

Bullpen

Clay Holmes NYY, Closer, 30.0 – Aroldis Chapman’s total meltdown opened the door up for Holmes, and his 97.1 MPH bowling bowl sinker did the rest. He threw it 80.1% of the time and it was the tied for the 8th most valuable sinker in the game with a negative 10 run value. His slider is a killer pitch too with a 42.9% whiff% and .174 xwOBA. It led to a pitching line of 2.54/1.02/65/20 in 63.2 IP. Aroldis Chapman is a free agent now and it seems Holmes is the heavy favorite to open the season as the closer, but I don’t think he is locked in the role if the Yanks acquire a more established closer. Kenley Jansen is a name that sticks out from the free agent pool. I wouldn’t worry too much that he will lose the role, but I would keep it in the back your mind when building your team. 2023 Projection: 4/3.28/1.08/69/30 saves in 65 IP

Top 10 New York Yankees Fantasy Baseball Prospects.

1) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 21.11 – Volpe got off to a rough start at Double-A with a .647 OPS and 24% K% in his first 37 games, but he came alive after that, slashing .286/.374/.536 with 13 homers, 26 steals, and a 14.4%/10.7% K%/BB% in 72 games. He does it all with a mature plate approach, plus game power, and plus stolen base ability. Despite the 17.7% K% at Double-A on the season, he still hit only .251 because of an extreme 56.9% flyball percentage. If the balls stay dead, it could be an issue because he isn’t a huge raw power guy at 5’11”, 180 pounds. He also struggled when he got the call to Triple-A with his K% spiking to 30.3%, and putting up a 91 wRC+ in 22 games. The profile isn’t flawless, but he has a super fantasy friendly skillset, and he was a 21 year old in the upper minors, so further refinement is surely coming. He’s an elite prospect. 2023 Projection: 38/10/35/.236/.316/.421/12 Prime Projection: 89/26/88/.267/.341/.473/21

2) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.2 – It felt like everyone was just waiting for Dominguez to fail, the ole build em up so we can tear em down, but Dominguez refused to blink. He’s now officially living up to the hype with a big 2022, slashing .273/.376/.461 with 16 homers, 37 steals, and a 24.2%/13.6% K%/BB% in 120 games mostly at Single-A and High-A. He actually performed better at High-A with a 146 wRC+ and 18.5% K%, and he even made it Double-A for 5 games and wasn’t overmatched with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 5/3 K/BB (despite a .467 OPS). His tools are still big and back up the numbers with plus speed and plus power. If he keeps this up at Double-A as a 20 year old, he’ll be in the mix for #1 fantasy prospect in the game very quickly into 2023. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/28/93/.261/.345/.491/18

3) Oswald Peraza NYY, SS/2B, 22.10 – Like Volpe, Peraza started the year cold with a .583 OPS and 25.6% in his first 46 games at Triple-A before turning it around. He slashed .316/.382/.560 with 14 homers, 22 steals, and a 21.4% K% in his final 53 games at the level. He got called up to the majors in September and thrived, slashing .306/.404/.429 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 15.8%/10.5% K%/BB% in 57 PA. Statcast backs up the numbers with a well above average .343 xwOBA and 28.9 ft/sec sprint speed. The one red flag is his 81.6/84.0 MPH AVG/FB EV. That is quite low on 40 batted balls. It’s a small sample and he obviously has more power than that, but the power numbers he put up in the minors in 2021-22 could be misleading for what he will do in the majors. 2023 Projection: 58/14/59/.246/.303/.400/16 Prime Projection: 81/21/77/.269/.327/.441/22

4) Austin Wells NYY, C, 23.8 – The Yankees took their sweet old time getting Wells to Double-A, but he didn’t disappoint when he got there, maintaining his mature plate approach with a 23.5%/11.7% K%/BB%, hitting for power with 12 homers, and showing some base stealing skills too with 7 steals in 7 attempts over 55 games. He’s kept the ball off the ground his entire career, so he’s bound to do damage with the Yanks short porch. He’s also yet to play any position other than catcher, which could indicate the Yanks are dedicated to him behind the plate. He ranked 18th overall in my Top 65 Catchers: 2023 Deep Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings on Patreon. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 77/24/79/.258/.336/.457/8

5) Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 21.11 – Selected 25th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, the 6’7”, 225 pound Jones is the lefty version of Aaron Judge, even down to the fact they each hit “only” 12 homers in their draft year. It’s the hacky comp, but it’s also one that cuts through all the BS. He had some K issues in college with 64 K’s in 61 SEC games, and a high GB% kept the homers in check. His pro debut tamped down some of those concerns though as he played like a man amongst boys, slashing .344/.425/.538 with 4 homers, 12 steals, and a 18.9%/10.4% K%/BB% in 25 games at mostly Single-A. His power is huge enough to overcome a high GB% and he’s a good athlete with stolen base skills. He’ll get plenty of love in first year player drafts, but I suspect it won’t be enough. He’s currently 6th overall in my First Year Player Draft Rankings and is pushing Top 50 overall prospect status. Go after him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/27/86/.248/.333/.480/9

6) Everson Pereira NYY, OF, 22.0 – Pereira was not able to maintain his insane power surge in 2021 (20 homers in 49 games), hitting 14 homers with a 49.5% GB% in 102 games split between High-A and Double-A. The strikeout rate remained high as well with a 26.8% K% at High-A and 30.1% K% at Double-A. A high strikeout rate with a high groundball rate is not the best combo, but he has the type of raw power and speed (21 steals) to make it work a la Randy Arozarena. He still put up a 120 wRC+ and 128 wRC+ at High-A and Double-A, respectively. It’s a high risk, high reward profile who has still has a wide range of outcomes despite being 21 years old with a taste of the upper minors. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 79/23/77/.251/.332/.447/15

7) Matt Sauer NYY, RHP, 24.2 – Sauer’s 4.54 ERA in 109 IP at High-A (88.1 IP) and Double-A (20.2 IP) is not indicative of how good he looked. He has no joke stuff with a plus mid 90’s fastball that moves, a plus slider, and a lesser used quality changeup. Here is he striking out 17 batters in his 3rd game at Double-A to give you an idea of the upside we are talking about. He had a 26.5%/9.3% K%/BB% at High-A and 37%/7.6% K%/BB% at Double-A. His control/command is below average and he has an injury history (he left his final start of the year with an undisclosed injury), so the bullpen risk is high, but he’s a no doubt target of mine in the later rounds of off-season prospect drafts, especially because New York traded so much of their pitching depth at the deadline. He could also be nasty out of the pen. 2023 Projection: 2/4.21/1.34/32 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.81/1.28/169 in 155 IP

8) Estiven Florial NYY, OF, 25.4 – Florial burst on the scene in 2017 as the ultimate high risk, high reward prospect, and 6 years later he remains that way, although neither the risk nor the reward are quite as high. He had a strong season at Triple-A with a 124 wRC+ in 101 games, but the 30.4% K% is still in the danger zone and his power has yet to fully breakout with 15 homers. He got some run in the majors and the K% spiked to 37.1% with a negative 7 wRC+ in 35 PA. He’s a plus defensive centerfielder, so it seems he will be used as a bench outfielder earlier in his career, with the hope he continues to grow into his considerable raw offensive talent as a later career breakout. 2023 Projection: 19/5/22/.222/.294/.389/7 Prime Projection: 73/18/61/.238/.311/.413/16

9) Trey Sweeney NYY, SS, 22.11 – Sweeney didn’t have a huge year, which would have been nice to see considering his competition in college wasn’t that strong in the Ohio Valley Conference, but it was still solid, slashing .240/.349/.413 with 16 homers, 31 steals, and a 23.2%/13.0 K%/BB% in 111 games split between High-A (100 games) and Double-A (11 games). He’s 6’4”, 200 pounds with a pretty viscous lefty swing, so there is more power in here to unlock, and he doesn’t have any major strikeout or groundball issues. He’s not that fast, so the stolen bases are likely a mirage, but it’s a good sign that he can contribute there. I’m very happy with my evaluation of him last off-season, as I liked him, but didn’t go crazy over him at 16th overall in my 2022 FYPD ranks. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/22/81/.253/.327/.448/7

10) Keiner Delgado NYY, 2B/3B, 19.3 – Delgado was an 18 year old in the DSL, and he’s only 5’8”, 145 pounds, but everything else looks so good I just couldn’t leave him off this list. He slashed .310/.504/.506 with 3 homers, 34 steals, and an 11.8%/24.4% K%/BB% in 52 games. He’s an excellent athlete who hits the ball hard and has a 47.7% FB%, so he’ll get the most out of his raw power. Jose Altuve is the dream outcome, but there are lesser outcomes that would still make him an impact fantasy player. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 81/15/66/.268/.339/.420/19

11) Brandon Mayea NYY, OF, 17.5 – Mayea is my #2 overall international prospect behind Felnin Celesten. He might not be physically imposing at 5’11”, 170 pounds, but he’s far from weak with the ball exploding off his bat in every video I’ve seen. He has a good feel to hit with an easy and athletic righty swing to go along with plus speed. He’s expected to sign for over $4 million. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 82/22/76/.275/.345/.458/15

Just Missed

12) Roderick Arias NYY, SS, 18.7

13) Will Warren NYY, RHP, 23.9

14) Andres Chaparro NYY, 3B, 23.11

15) Luis Serna NYY, RHP, 18.9

16) Randy Vasquez NYY, RHP, 24.5

17) Drew Thorpe NYY, LHP, 22.6 

18) Enmanuel Tejada NYY, SS, 18.3

19) Richard Fitts NYY, RHP, 23.4

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

It can be so tempting to pay up for a career year, but it almost always ends up being an overpay. Just look at Salvador Perez this year vs. what he did in 2021. It’s not like they don’t have the ability to repeat, because they obviously just did it, it’s just that literally everything has to go right from luck to health and everything in between. A career year in a contract year is the scariest, because who knows what extra work the guy was willing to put in behind the scenes that he may be a bit more lax on after he scores a $500 million contract. I’m obviously talking about Aaron Judge here, but it applies to every veteran who just had the best year of their career. You are way better off looking for the guy who has the ability to put up that career season, but didn’t for whatever reason, rather than going after the guy who just did it.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 104 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: TOP 65 CATCHERS
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago White Sox—Colorado Rockies—Kansas City Royals—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—Texas Rangers—Washington Nationals

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)