Michael Halpern

Posted on May 22, 2023May 26, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: May 2023 Top 314 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings

I was super strict with my definition of a prospect in this one. Only players currently in the minors and who haven’t exceeded their rookie eligibility were eligible for this list. This was done to really highlight the next wave of talent. Previous rankings from April through the off-season are in parenthesis. Here is the May 2023 Top 314 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE UPDATED PROSPECTS RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 433 MAY DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (5/26/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG! (5/16/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (5/19/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-PREDICTING THE 2024 TOP 50 PROSPECTS RANKS

1) (7) (6) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.4 – Slashing .325/.435/.662 with 6 homers, 5 steals, and a 20.4%/15.2% in his last 19 games at Triple-A. The power/speed combo is unmatched, and the improved K rate propels him into the top spot. Proximity gives him the edge over Holliday as Elly also ranked 1st on my Top 25 Prospects to Stash for 2023 Impact Only.

2) (6) (13) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.5 – Putting up stupid numbers at High-A, slashing .395/.505/.724 with 4 homers, 8 steals, and a 16.1%/18..3% K%/BB% in 21 games. Perfect combo of floor and high ceiling

3) (25) (24) Royce Lewis MIN, SS, 23.11 – From the 5/17/23 Dynasty Baseball Rundown: “Rolls-Royce comes back from ACL tears like he’s going into the shop for upgrades. It’s like an episode of Pimp My Knee.” He’s jacked 3 homers with 3 steals and a .364 BA in 6 games in the upper minors since returning. He ascended to top prospect in the game status before going down with the ACL injury, and he’s picking up right where he left off.

4) (2) (5) Jordan Walker STL, 3B/OF, 21.0 – Hasn’t improved his launch and isn’t performing well at Triple-A with a 67 wRC+ in 21 games

5) (4) (3) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.2 – Holding his own at Double-A as a 19 year old with 5 homers, 10 steals and a 24.1%/7.2% K%/BB% in 37 games

6) (3) (7) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 20.10 – Hit tool is getting exposed at Double-A with a 31.7% K% and .162 BA, but bad luck is playing a role with a .203 BABIP, and the power/speed combo looks great with 5 homers and 10 steals in 32 games. I would buy low if you can

7) (14) (8) James Wood WAS, OF, 20.8 – There is always going to be some hit tool risk with players this tall, but it’s been improving over his last 8 games with a 19.4% K%. High walk rate (13.9% BB%) also mitigates some of that risk

8) (36) (58) Gavin Williams CLE, RHP, 23.9 – Williams is the new #1 overall pitching prospect still in the minors. 2.10 ERA with a 36.7%/10.2% K%/BB% in 25.2 IP at Triple-A and has the huge stuff to back it up led by an upper 90’s fastball. He has ace written all over him

9) (32) (38) Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 23.1 – Across the board destruction of Triple-A. It can’t be much longer before he gets the call

10) (5) (19) Kyle Manzardo TBR, 1B, 22.10 – Hit tool really hasn’t been all that great with a 20.2% K% and .263 BA in 39 games at Triple-A, and with Tampa’s extreme depth, path to playing time isn’t exactly super clear. On the flip side his power has taken a step forward with 8 homers and he’s one of the safest bats in the minors

11) (47) (92) Junior Caminero TBR, 3B, 19.10 – There isn’t much speed here and the 24.7%/6.2% K%/BB% isn’t that great. I only bring up the negatives because his hype is through the roof and it’s worth mentioning he’s not the perfect prospect. Having said that, the guy is obviously a beast with 11 homers and a 187 wRC+ in 33 games at High-A

12) (18) (21) Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 19.5 – Continues to ramp up from the elbow injury with no setbacks yet

13) (12) (16) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 20.9 – Left his last start with an arm injury, but they are hopeful it isn’t that serious and that he will be back throwing soon

14) (41) (30) Noelvi Marte CIN, SS, 21.6 – From overrated to underrated. 8 homers, 8 steals, and a 17.9%/9.3% K%/BB% in 37 games at Double-A

15) (13) (34) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.8 – Power hasn’t taken a step forward yet with only 4 homers in 32 games at Double-A, but he’s still only 20 and he does everything else well

16) (15) (10) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.4 – .224 BABIP is still holding down the BA (.197) in 34 games at Double-A, but the 24.7%/20% K%/BB% looks good and he’s been much better of late with a .262 BA in his last 15 games

17) (22) (48) Coby Mayo BAL, 3B, 21.5 – Dominating Double-A, slashing .270/.396/.492 with 5 homers and a 24%/14.3% K%/BB% in 36 games. It’s good for a 145 wRC+. He still doesn’t get the respect he deserves

18) (23) (25) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.1 – 3.5% BB% in 25 games at Double-A is extremely low and it’s not an aberration as he had a 4.9% BB% in 63 games at High-A last year. I only bring it up because everything else looks great, but the low walk rate could have him hitting towards the bottom of the lineup

19) (31) (31) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 20.5 – Quietly dominating High-A with a 144 wRC+. He’s a complete hitter

20) (24) (12) Druw Jones ARI, OF, 19.5 – Was starting to find his footing at Single-A with a 16.7%/12.5% K%/BB% in his last 4 games before going down with the quad injury. It feels silly to say this, but definitely don’t panic based on the 10 game sample

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 22, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Welcome to Prospects Rankings Week!

Prospects Rankings Week is back with a vengeance for May. As usual, I will go over 300 deep with a quick blurb for almost everyone. I’m going to be super strict with my definition of a prospect (only players still in in the minors will qualify), so this list will really highlight the next wave of talent. First post drops later today (or tom morning at the latest). Catch you in a few …

-Halp

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE UPDATED PROSPECTS RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 433 MAY DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (4/28/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG! (5/16/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (5/19/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-PREDICTING THE 2024 TOP 50 PROSPECTS RANKS

Posted on May 15, 2023May 19, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/15/23)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/15/23):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 433 MAY DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 324 APRIL PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (4/28/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG! (5/16/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (5/19/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-PREDICTING THE 2024 TOP 50 PROSPECTS RANKS

Christopher Morel CHC, 2B/OF, 23.10 – They say good things come to those who wait, and the Morel owners who waited are now enjoying good things as he jacked his 3rd homer in 21 PA. He has a 1.238 OPS with a 92.4 MPH EV, 1 steal, and most importantly, the whiff% is all the way down to a reasonable 28.9%. He was one of my favorite targets this off-season, and I sure as hell waited while bad vets got the nod over him even while he was destroying spring pitching and destroying Triple-A. Come to think of it, the people who say “good things come to those who wait” are usually the ones screwing you over, but Morel refused to be held down for long, and his fantasy owners are now reaping the benefits. He checked in at #227 on the Updated May Top 433 Dynasty Baseball Rankings that just dropped on the Patreon last week, and that number will keep rising if he keeps performing and locks in playing time.

Jordan Walker STL, 3B/OF, 21.0 – Jordan Walker owners were given immediate gratification with him making the team out of camp and look how that worked out for them. He had mediocre results and then very quickly got sent back to down to Triple-A to work on his launch angle. Let’s check in to see how that launch is looking after a 3 for 5 day yesterday: 28.6% FB%. Not great, and it’s led to a 60 wRC+ in 15 games at Triple-A. He’s still crushing the ball and the plate approach is good, so I wouldn’t be worried, but the Cardinals very publicly announced what they wanted to see from him, and they quite clearly haven’t seen it yet. I’m guessing they will call him back up eventually regardless of his launch, but it would have been easier if he was able to successfully make that adjustment.

Alex Kirilloff MIN, 1B/OF, 25.7 – Kirilloff owners have been waiting for damn near 4 years, and quite frankly, you have the patience of a saint if you kept him on your roster all this time, but now that saintly patience is paying off. He went 2 for 6 yesterday and now has a 1.309 OPS with 2 homers, a 93.1 MPH EV and a 17.9%/21.4% K%/BB% in 28 PA in the majors. He looks healthy and as long as he stays that way, he’ll likely keep raking. I’m buying.

Brandon Pfaadt ARI, RHP, 24.7 – Tom Petty said the waiting is the hardest part, but he obviously never owned Pfaadt in dynasty, because watching him get shelled once he did get the call has surely been the hardest part. The waiting was the easy part in hindsight. But he had his best MLB outing yesterday, going 5 IP with 1 hit, 1 ER, and a 5/3 K/BB vs. SFG. The fastball sat 93.4 MPH and he induced weak contact with an 83.5 MPH EV against. It’s still been super rough overall with an 8.59 ERA in 14.2 IP, and all of his pitches are getting destroyed. I can’t lie, it’s a little concerning as he doesn’t necessarily have stuff, but really nothing you can do but keep waiting.

Zach Neto LAA, SS, 22.2 – Fuck waiting. Sometimes you have to take what you want, and that is why Neto was my 3rd ranked FYPD prospect, because I knew he would be fast tracked to the bigs. But even I didn’t expect it to happen so fast, and considering the rush job LA put on him, he’s been pretty damn good. He went 1 for 3 with a 100.6 MPH double off none other than a 98.9 MPH Emmanuel Clase fastball. He now has a 15.7% K%, 89.3 MPH EV, 7.9% Barrel%, and a .326 xwOBA. He’s setting a very strong foundation, and the best is almost certainly yet to come.

Matt McLain CIN, 2B/SS, 23.8 – Strand and Elly owners will have to keep waiting, because Yippee-ki-yay, it’s McLain time. He’s been out of his mind at Triple-A, slashing .348/.474/.710 with 12 homers, 10 steals, and a 19.7%/16.8% K%/BB% in 38 games, earning every bit of this callup. And I don’t see him going anywhere as long he performs decently well. He’s shown some hit tool issues in the past and he’s not a huge raw power guy, but he’s a pick up in all league sizes if he happens to still be out there on your wire.

Tanner Bibee CLE, RHP, 24.2 – Can I shoehorn this waiting theme into one more player … hmmmmmm … I got nothing. Bibee owners waited the appropriate amount of time and he’s been impressive from the get go. He went 7.2 IP with 2 hits, 1 ER, and 7/2 K/BB vs. LAA. The fastball sat 95.2 MPH and he put up a 29% whiff% overall. Bibee is well on his way to becoming a Top 100 dynasty asset with a 3.22 ERA and 25%/4.5% K%/BB% in 22.1 IP. He currently sits at #165 on the Updated Dynasty Rankings.

Louie Varland MIN, RHP, 25.4 – 6.1 IP, 4 hits, 3 ER, 7/1 K/BB vs. CHC. Varland was my first “full breakout alert” in the Dynasty Rundowns back in early April, and there wasn’t much waiting after that as he quickly got called up to the majors. He hasn’t necessarily exploded with a 4.30 ERA in 23 IP, but the stuff looks great led by a 95.1 MPH fastball, and so does the 28.4%/6.3% K%/BB%. I still think he’s a bit underrated.

James Wood WAS, OF, 20.7 – Wood went 3 for 3 with 2 doubles, a dinger, and a 0/2 K/BB at High-A as he’s now officially destroying the level with 5 homers, 5 steals, and a 137 wRC+ in 31 games. The one quibble is that the K% is all the way up to 29%. Strikeouts were always going to be a part of his game at 6’6”, and he can thrive even with a high K rate, but it does add risk, and it will be interesting to see if he can keep it in check when he gets to Double-A.

Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 22.0 – Jones is the older version of Wood. He went 3 for 5 with 2 doubles, 1 steal, and most importantly, 0 K’s. He’s crushing High-A with 6 homers, 9 steals, and a 143 wRC+, but that 32.2%/5.8% K%/BB% is pretty rough. He just turned 22 yesterday (Happy Birthday, Spence), so he’s a young 22, but he’ll likely need to make legitimate hit tool and plate approach improvements if he wants his power/speed combo to shine in the majors. He was my 5th ranked FYPD prospect, and I still love him, but we can’t completely ignore those K/BB numbers as much as I want to.

Jacob Melton HOU, OF, 22.9 – Melton cracked his 5th homer at High-A and is doing what an advanced college bat is supposed to do in the lower minors. Along with the 5 homers, he has 12 steals with a 26%/19% K%/BB% and a 136 wRC+ in 22 games. We just gotta watch that K%, but the power/speed combo is very legit. He’s exciting.

Gavin Cross KC, OF, 22.2 – Cross is doing whatever the opposite of “doing what an advanced college bat is supposed to do in the lower minors,” as he’s looked terrible at High-A even after going 2 for 4 yesterday. He has a 62 wRC+ with a 32.8%/7.3% K%/BB% in 31 games. The hit tool was the one iffy part of his game coming out of the draft, and that’s playing out right now. We saw him molten hot last year to start his pro career, so I wouldn’t completely overreact to the still small sample, but it’s simply not what you want to see.

Marco Luciano SFG, SS, 21.7 – Lucky Luciano launched his 2nd bomb in 10 games at Double-A, but it came on a 1 for 5 with 3 K day. He now has a 50 wRC+ with a 40% K% at the level, and it just feels like the shine continues to come off that formerly pristine prospect hype. He’s still a good prospect, but I’m not sure he really stands out anymore, although maybe we have to give him some more time to shake the rust off as he’s coming off a stress fracture in his back this off-season.

Kyren Paris LAA, 2B/SS, 21.5 – Paris was a named target for me this off-season, and he’s been a beast all season at Double-A. He went 2 for 3 with his 9th homer on a beautiful swing yesterday. He’s now slashing .239/.390/.487 with 9 homers, 10 steals, and a 31.9%/17.7% K%/BB% in 31 games. The power has taken a major step forward, which is huge to see considering his double plus speed. The hit tool is still a major concern which prevents his hype from truly exploding, but this is an extremely high upside fantasy player who still gets almost no love. I’m still buying despite the risk.

Justyn-Henry Malloy DET, 3B/OF, 23.4 – 1 for 2 with a homer and 3 walks. The hard hitting Malloy is now slashing .323/.455/.526 with 7 homers and a 24.2%/17.6% K%/BB% in 38 games at Triple-A and I can’t imagine it is much longer before he gets the call. I think he’s likely to be a better real life hitter than fantasy, but that doesn’t mean he can’t make a fantasy impact too. He’s a great stash in any league.

Luis Matos SFG, OF, 21.3 – Matos drilled his 3rd homer and he did it with a swing that looks ready made for the majors. Quick and powerful. He’s bouncing back in a big way from a down 2022, slashing .304/.398/.443 with 3 homers, 9 steals, and a 9%/12.8% K%/BB% in 31 games at Double-A. A few more bombs like that and his formerly elite prospect hype could sneak back up on us. He’s a major riser this year regardless.

Ryan Bliss ARI, 2B/SS, 24.5 – Bliss has lived up to his name and then some with his performance at Double-A. He went 3 for 6 with a double, homer, and 2 steals yesterday, and is now slashing a blissful .406/.433/.672 with 6 homers, 11 steals, and a 20.1%/4.5% K%/BB% in 29 games. He’s a particularly small guy at only 5’6”, but check out this swing on yesterday’s dinger, he definitely has some pop in there. The plate approach is mediocre and so is the power, which makes it hard to buy in too hard, but how can you argue with that performance.

Spencer Arrighetti HOU, RHP, 23.5 – 7 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 9/2 K/BB at Double-A. Arrighetti was a target of mine this off-season, and while he struggled to start the year, he now has a 0.53 ERA with a 19/6 K/BB in his last 17 IP. He sure looks like he’s finding his rhythm, and like most Astros pitching prospects for some weird reason, he flies way under the radar.

Jackson Rutledge WAS, RHP, 24.2 – 6 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 5/0 K/BB at Double-A. Rutledge has been performing rock solidly all year with a 2.72 ERA in 39.2 IP, and he has the big stuff to back it up. I still don’t love the 23.7%/9% K%/BB%, he’s been injury prone in his career, and that ERA probably has some good luck involved, but there is a clear path to a rotation spot with Washington’s depleted roster. Not the worst stash if you missed out on the more hyped recently called up pitching prospects.

Cory Lewis MIN, RHP, 22.7 – Lewis was drafted in the 9th round last year, but he’s performing like anything but a 9th rounder after throwing 5.2 perfect innings with 7 K’s. He has a 2.43 ERA with a 33.3%/6.8% K%/BB% in 29.2 IP at Single-A. He throws a low 90’s fastball, but it has plus spin, and at 6’5”, 220 pounds, it gets great extension too. He rounds out of the repertoire with a power breaker he throws in the dirt, a slower one he can throw for strikes, and a lesser used changeup. Definitely an intriguing pop up pitching prospect to at least keep an eye on.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 8, 2023May 12, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: May Top 433 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

It’s still early, but we now have a sample size that we can really sink our teeth into. April’s small sample update was merely lickable. As usual, I go over 400 deep with quick blurbs for almost everyone. Top 15 free here on the Brick Wall. April through off-season rankings are in parenthesis, in that order. Here is the May Top 433 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 324 APRIL PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (4/28/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-PREDICTING THE 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECTS RANKS
-7 EARLY SEASON DYNASTY STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS

1) (1) (1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 28.10 – Managed to improve even his one slight weakness, bringing his K% down 6 percentage points to 18.2%. I wish I could rank him even higher than #1, but this is as high as rankings go. Maybe absolute zero?

2) (3) (3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 25.5 – Speed and launch haven’t bounced back, but who cares with him crushing the ball with a career high 94.2 MPH and career low 14.4% K%. .458 xwOBA is 3rd best in baseball among qualified hitters (behind only Sean Murphy and Matt Chapman, just like how we drew it up).

3) (2) (2) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 22.4 – I wouldn’t sweat the .216 BA as the .261 BABIP is really the only issue. Everything else is basically in line with 2022, and in 2022, he didn’t even explode until May

Shadow3) (3) (6) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 28.10

4) (4) (6) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 26.4 – Tucker is the least talked about, least hyped elite baseball player in the world

5) (6) (9) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 24.2 – 11.5 degree launch and 12.8% K% are both career highs. Scary to say we might not have even seen the best of Vlad yet

6) (5) (4) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 25.10 – Alvarez has a .924 OPS and it doesn’t even feel like he’s having a good season

7) (9) (7) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, SS/OF, 24.4 – It’s clear at this point he will get back to being elite as long as he stays healthy

8) (24) (24) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.8 – 91.9 MPH EV, 13 degree launch, 22.5%/8.3% K%/BB%, and 30.2 ft/sec sprint. Carroll is the truth and even this ranking might not be high enough

9) (12) (16) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 22.2 – Locking in the breakout with a 10.9% Barrel%, and the cherry on top is that he is running a ton with 8 steals. The new rules may have bumped his fantasy upside even higher

10) (10) (14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 26.6 – Career high 14.4 degree launch could get him to over 40 dingers for the first time in his career. He has 11 already

11) (7) (5) Juan Soto SDP, OF, 24.6 – Career worst 23.2% K% and 25.6% whiff% shows the .220 BA isn’t all bad luck. He was never a huge homer/steal guy, so while he’s still a major buy in an OBP league, I might be hesitant in a 5×5 BA league to really pay up through the nose for him (I would pay up through the shoulders, tops)

12) (11) (13) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 25.2 – 1 for 3 on the bases with a career low 26.7 ft/sec sprint. He’s not going to be a huge base stealer, but his hit tool is better than ever with a career best 15.7% K%

13) (13) (8) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS/3B, 22.11 – Hitting the ball harder than last year with a 91.1/94.9 MPH AVG/FB EV, which is exactly what we needed to see. There is an explosion coming, and if you can get in now with any type of discount because of the mediocre .715 OPS, I would jump on it

14) (8) (10) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 31.0 – He’s been out with a hip injury but is expected to return on Tuesday. One thing to keep an eye on is the swing and miss with his K% and whiff% spiking to 32.4% and 39.7%, respectively

15) (15) (12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 30.8 – Power is the only thing missing, and I’m guessing that will tick up in time as he gets further away from that off-season thumb surgery

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 8, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Welcome to Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week! (May)

It’s still early, but we now have a sample size that we can really sink our teeth into. April’s small sample update was merely lickable. As usual, I go over 400 deep with quick blurbs for everyone. First part of the rankings should drop later today on the Patreon with more coming all week. I’ll catch you in a few hours.

-Halp

Posted on May 1, 2023May 5, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/1/23)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 433 APRIL DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 324 APRIL PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (4/28/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
-PREDICTING THE 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECTS RANKS
-7 EARLY SEASON DYNASTY STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS

Carlos Jorge CIN, 2B, 19.7 – The little man discount is one of the most reliable discounts in prospecting, and there is a small army of little prospects ready to overthrow the Heightriarchy. The 5’10”, 160 pound Jorge is leading the charge after a huge day at the dish yesterday, going 4 for 7 with a double, homer, steal, and 0/1 K/BB in a doubleheader. He’s now slashing .323/.408/.532 with 2 homers, 5 steals, and a 25.4%/11.3% K%/BB% in 18 games at Single-A. He’s never put up a wRC+ under 151 or had an OBP under .400 in his 3 year career, but because he’s not 6’3”, he immediately gets discounted. Jose Ramirez, Mookie Betts, Wander Franco, Corbin Carroll, Cedric Mullins, Francisco Lindor, Randy Arozarena, Ozzie Albies, Jose Altuve, and many more have all proven you don’t have to be 6 feet or over to be an elite MLB player. Down with the Heightriarchy.

Luisangel Acuna TEX, SS/2B, 21.1 – Not even his older brother, Ronald, could protect Luisangel from the little guy bullying that he’s had to face his entire career on prospect lists. The 5’8” Acuna stole 3 bags yesterday, and he’s been handling his business at Double-A all year, slashing .319/.369/.436 with 1 homer, 10 steals, and a 20.2%/7.7% K%/BB% in 21 games. The power hasn’t come yet, but keeping that K rate in check is huge to see, and he’s a base stealing machine.

Jonatan Clase SEA, OF, 20.11 – The 5’9”, 150 pound Clase is trying to shatter that glass ceiling with Jorge and Acuna. He went 1 for 4 with a steal and 1/2 K/BB yesterday and is now slashing .337/.455/.723 with 7 homers, 16 steals, and a 26.7%/16.8% K%/BB% in 20 games at High-A. Acuna, Jorge, and Clase were all named targets for me this off-season because I don’t see height. Clase cracked my Top 100 in the Updated Top 324 Dynasty Prospects Rankings that dropped last week on my Patreon.

Termarr Johnson PIT, 2B/SS, 18.11 – The 5’8”, 175 pound Johnson actually did get the respect he deserved in prospect rankings, but I was actually a little skeptical of how good that hit tool really was, predicting in the Predicting the Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings that “Johnson’s hit tool at Single-A won’t be as good as the hype.” He went 1 for 3 with a 2/0 K/BB yesterday and now has a 41.2% K% and .214 BA in 5 games. It’s still a super super small sample, and I still love him even if I do think the hit tool was maybe a little overhyped, but the slow start does play into my fears from the off-season.

Harry Ford SEA, C, 20.1 – The 5’10” Ford might not be tall, but he is a built like a tank, and he’s hitting like a tank. He went 2 for 6 with a double yesterday and is now slashing .282/.453/.493 with 3 homers, 5 steals, and a 18.9%/23.2% K%/BB% in 19 games at High-A. This coming off his great WBC for Great Britain which nearly got him knighted. He’s splitting his time between catcher and DH, and at this point, I almost hope he gets moved off catcher to let his bat shine. He has the speed and athleticism to play elsewhere.

Adael Amador COL, SS, 20.1 – Amador feels like he is part of the little man brigade, but he actually checks in at 6’0” on the dot. He got a late start to the season, but he’s starting to cook after drilling his first 2 homers of the year at High-A in 11 games. His elite contact rates have transferred to the level with a 11.3% K%, and so has his speed with 4 steals, but his high walk rates haven’t yet with a 3.8% BB%. His 56.8% GB% is probably too high to ever be a true power hitter, but he’s a high probability big leaguer with a strong across the board profile.

Denzel Clarke OAK, OF, 23.0 – Forget everything I just said about height. Now this is what a ballplayer is supposed to look like at 6’5”, 220 pounds with towering power and elite athleticism. This is the scout’s dream. Clark debuted on April 25th at Double-A and has done nothing but rake. He homered yesterday on a 3 for 5 day and now has 4 homers with a 372 wRC+ in 4 games. Most importantly, the K rate has been solid with a 26.3%/15.8% K%/BB%. If he can maintain even a below average K rate, oh boy, because this is a huge man with huge talent and nothing but opportunity in Oakland, er, Las Vegas.

Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 22.0 – 1 IP, 5 hits, 8 ER, 2/2 K/BB at Triple-A. Tampa’s front office are either magic yogi’s who can see into the future and demoted Bradley before he could have this blow up in the majors. Or they are humans who undeservedly sent a kid down who was killing it in the majors, and being yanked around like that messed with his performance. I choose to believe it is the former.

Logan Allen CLE, LHP, 24.7 – 5 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 8/2 K/BB vs. BOS. The fastball sat 91.9 MPH and he induced tons of weak contact with a 85.9 EV against. Allen has pitched to ace levels in his MLB debut with a 2.45 ERA and 35.6%/6.7% K%/BB%, but there are signs he is pitching above his head. The 28.7% whiff% is not as big (although still good) and the 4.54 xERA is much higher than the ERA. He also didn’t display this level of control in his minor league career. Don’t get me wrong, it’s still a super encouraging MLB debut, but I wouldn’t expect him to keep it up to this level.

Nick Frasso LAD, RHP, 24.5 – 4 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 4/2 K/BB at Double-A. LA’s pitching logjam be damned, Frasso is one of my favorite pitching targets in the minors. He now has a 1.23 ERA with a 34.9%/5.8% K%/BB% in 22 IP. He has a nasty, plus 3 pitch mix and he’s like a lefty with a funky delivery, expect he throws righty, if you know what I mean. There is certainly risk he ends up in the pen because of circumstances, injury risk, and lack of innings in his career, but I just can’t ignore how high his upside is. I named him a target in my Top Dynasty Baseball Targets that dropped on Friday on the Patreon.

Rayne Doncon LAD, 2B/SS, 19.7 – Doncon went 4 for 4 with a double, steal, and a 430 foot bomb. He’s now getting into position to truly explode up rankings, slashing .262/.344/.464 with 5 homers, 2 steals, and a 25%/11.5% K%/BB% in 20 games. He has an explosive swing that screams big time power and has shown a good feel to hit his entire career. Now is the time to get in on him if you haven’t already.

Elijah Green WAS, OF, 19.4 – Elly 2.0 has arrived. Green smashed a homer in back to back games for his first 2 of the year to go along with 8 steals and a 48.1% K% in 17 games at Single-A. He’s even rawer than we expected, but the talent is so huge it’s worth being patient for the hit tool to come around.

Samuel Zavala SDP, OF, 18.9 – Zavala broke out of his early season slump in a huge way, going 4 for 5 with a homer and a steal. All of a sudden his wRC+ is up to 106 as an 18 year old in 18 games at Single-A. It’s also a reminder of how we are still in the small sample size part of the season. One big game can take a guy from struggling hard, to being an above average hitter overnight. He’s still the phenom we thought he was.

Cam Collier CIN, 3B, 18.5 – Speaking of 18 year olds performing above average in full season ball, Collier ripped his first homer at the level on a 2 for 8 day to bring his season wRC+ up to 116 in 14 games. The 26.7% K% is a tad higher than optimal, and so is his 58.6% GB%, so while he’s not going full breakout, he’s proving his FYPD hype was deserved.

Colin Barber HOU, OF, 22.4 – Just call him high cholesterol, because Barber is the quietest killer in the minor leagues. He cracked his 2nd homer in 15 games at Double-A to bring his season wRC+ up to 145. Also, just look at his man’s quads. If this was fantasy football twitter, our heads would be exploding.

Tyler Locklear SEA, 1B, 22.5 – Locklear was drafted 58th overall as a bat first prospect, and that bat is rolling right through the lower minors after he cracked 2 homers yesterday. He has 4 homers with a 21.%/9.6% K%/BB% and 146 wRC+ in 20 games at High-A. He’s played exclusively 1B this year, so the bat will have to hit it’s ceiling to get playing time in the majors. I think the bat is real, but I probably wouldn’t get too excited until he’s doing it in the upper minors.

Cayden Wallace KC, 3B, 21.9 – Wallace went 2 for 8 with a dinger last night, and he’s another moderately hyped 2nd round pick who is handling his business at High-A, slashing .306/.414/.542 with 3 homers, 3 steals, and a 20.7%/14.9% K%/BB% in 20 games. Again, doing it at High-A doesn’t truly explode their ranking, but they are trending up and they should get the chance to prove themselves at Double-A in the not too distant future.

Jonny DeLuca LAD, OF, 24.9 – DeLuca was one of the many big risers in the Updated Top 324 Prospect Rankings, and he’s not slowing down after going 3 for 5 with his 6th homer in 20 games at Double-A. He could be that next sneaky, older prospect that comes out of nowhere for the Dodgers.

Daylen Lile WAS, OF, 20.4 – The 47th overall pick in the 2021 Draft, Lile missed all of 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but I kept the faith on him just barely by ranking him 1,012 overall on the off-season Top 1,000. I also gave you a heads up that he looked pretty good in his spring debut. That faith has been rewarded after he went 3 for 5 with a homer yesterday. He’s now slashing .333/.409/.632 with 3 homers, 5 steals, and a 19.7%/10.6% K%/BB% in 14 games at Single-A. He’s 20 at Single-A, but we can give him a pass for that because of the missed development time. Now is probably the time to get in on him.

Darell Hernaiz OAK, SS/2B/3B, 21.8 – Oakland was happy to scoop Hernaiz off the back of the overstuffed middle infield prospect Orioles truck, and he’s delivering after going 3 for 5 with a dinger last night. He’s slashing .313/.366/.453 with 2 homers, 5 steals, and a 20.8%/8.3% K%/BB% as a 21 year old at Double-A. Oakland is the perfect spot for him with playing time galore available.

Kyle Harrison SFG, LHP, 21.8 – 3.2 IP, 0 hits, 1 ER, 7/4 K/BB at Triple-A. Harrison has more walks than innings pitched, and not by a little either with 21 walks in 15.2 IP. That is extreme to say the least. The stuff is so nasty it has still resulted in only a 4.02 ERA and 35.1% K%, and 15.2 IP is still a small sample. His value is dropping because the risk is getting even higher, but in general, he is a hold for me. Let’s see if he can work through these early season control problems, as he just needs to maintain below average control to thrive.

Carson Whisenhunt SFG, LHP, 22.5 – Whisenhunt got the call to High-A and was lights out, going 4 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB. The fastball was sitting in the mid 90’s and the changeup was nasty as usual. Here are the highlights from his start. The breaking ball can definitely look a little dinky, and it’s still the lower minors, but it could be time to start getting excited. He looks like a good one.

Tsung-Che Cheng PIT, SS, 21.10 – If feels fitting to end this Rundown like we started it, with the smallest prospect of them all standing at 5’7″, 154 pounds. But his production has been anything but small (never had a wRC+ under 129 in his 3 year career), and he’s officially killing it again after going 2 for 5 with a homer yesterday. Cheng is now slashing .275/.359/.551 with 4 homers, 7 steals, and a 19%/11.4% K%/BB% in 18 games at the age appropriate High-A. His power is ticking up this year which he combines with plus speed and a good feel to hit. He also plays a solid SS, which could get his bat on the field. He’s still more of a deeper league pickup, but he’s one to keep your eye on at least.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on April 24, 2023April 28, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: April 2023 Top 324 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings

The prospect world moves fast, and there is already tons of movement in the first Top 300+ Updated Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings of 2023. Off-season rank is in parenthesis. Quick blurbs for every player. Top 20 free here on IBW. Here is the April 2023 Top 300+ Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings (1-157):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT, INCLUDING:
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-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
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-7 EARLY SEASON DYNASTY STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS

1) (4) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 22.0 – Buy low on Volpe if you can. He is not far off from exploding into a fantasy beast. He is running like wild with 8 steals and a plus 28.2 ft/sec sprint speed, the 15.9% BB% is elite, and the 87.9 MPH EV with a 16.9 degree launch is respectable. The 30.5% K% is high, but it was much, much better in the minors and that is very likely to come down in the near future. And now with Walker sent down to the minors, he’s my #1 prospect

2) (5) Jordan Walker STL, 3B/OF, 20.11 – It’s not the full on JRod explosion we wanted to see, but considering Walker’s 20 years old and completely skipped over Tripe-A, the MLB debut ain’t bad at all with a 90/95.3 MPH AVG/FB EV, 25.6% K%, and 101 wRC+. There is plenty to improve upon, namely the 3.8% BB% and 2.7 degree launch, but he’s laying a pretty solid foundation right now Update: Walker got sent down which is the right move if they didn’t want to play him everyday

3) (7) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 20.9 – Say hello to the new top dog once Walker and Volpe officially graduate. Lawlar has a 24.1%/17.2% K%/BB% with 3 homers, and 6 steals in 20 games at Double-A. .233 BABIP is the biggest issue which has led to a .217 BA. It’s the right mix of safety and upside, and he’s now doing it in the upper minors

4) (3) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.1 – Showing some inexperience at Double-A with a 27.9%/5.9% K%/BB% in 15 games, but he’s still knocked out 3 homers and 2 steals with an almost average 98 wRC+. One of those homers came off Eury Perez

5) (19) Kyle Manzardo TBR, 1B, 22.9 – Italian Lunch is powering up this year with big time EV readings that he didn’t show last year. He’ll Vinnie P the majors when he gets the chance

6) (13) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.4 – Complete across the board domination at Single-A with a 223 wRC+ in 13 games. It already earned him a promotion to High-A/ He’s on a beeline for the top prospect in the game

7) (6) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.3 – Debuted a few days ago and has a 53.8% K% in 3 games. We’re back

8) (14) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 23.5 – Hasn’t immediately ascended to ace status in his MLB debut with a 5.12 ERA in 19.1 IP, but he’s showing huge stuff with a 96.5 MPH fastball and is missing bats with a 28.7 K%. I’m not gonna lie, I like it better when pitching prospects come in and dominate from the jump, but the signs still point to an explosion in the near future

9) (35) Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 22.0 – As opposed to Grayson, this is exactly what you want to see from a top pitching prospect debut. 2.61 ERA with a 42.5%/5% K%/BB% in 10.1 IP. The plus 95.8 MPH fastball is dominating with a 28.9% whiff%, .206 xwOBA, and 49.1% usage. He’s also proving the secondaries will play against MLB competition. It’s a full on MLB breakout, and I was close to putting him over Rodriguez

10) (9) Miguel Vargas LAD, 3B, 23.4 – 20.5%/17.9% K%/BB% with a 86.5 MPH EV and 27.9 ft/sec sprint is kinda backing up the better in real life than fantasy tag many gave him this off-season. But the .375 xwOBA is almost elite, and if anything, he’s a buy for me

11) (163) James Outman LAD, OF, 25.10 – As I discussed in Halp’s Dynasty Baseball Podcast: Mailbag! Edition on Friday, there is no reason not to treat Outman’s breakout like it’s real. Locking in young MLB core pieces is what the game of dynasty is all about. The high 28.2% K% still makes him high risk, but that is why he isn’t ranked even higher. This ranking does seem a bit crazy, but are you really dealing Outman right now for anything less than this? And you can arguably go even higher than this on him

12) (16) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 20.8 – Tiedemann is a low arm slot slinging lefty who has been off the charts since spring. He has a 55.6%/7.4% K%/BB% in 6.2 IP at Double-A as he’s been babied a bit coming back from “minor” shoulder soreness. If not for the shoulder hiccup, he would probably be my top pitching prospect

13) (34) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.7 – Power might be ticking up with 3 homers in 12 games at Double-A (although the hard hit rate still isn’t great), and the plate approach is still elite with a 18.6%/22% K%/BB%. The high floor profile with speed and emerging power is hard to argue against now that he’s proving it in the upper minors

14) (8) James Wood WAS, OF, 20.7 – 25.5%/7.3% K%/BB% with a 102 wRC+ in 13 games at High-A. You always gotta be a little cautious with the hit tool on guys this big

15) (10) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.3 – Dominguez is starting to look like a streaky player. After destroying spring, he’s off to a cold start at Double-A with a 66 wRC+, but his .091 BABIP is silly low. He’ll get hot

16) (11) Zac Veen COL, OF, 21.4 – Veen is another BABIP victim with a .188 BABIP, but the 18.4%/14.3% K%/BB% looks great. The hits will start dropping, I’m not moving off him

17) (15) Eury Perez MIA, RHP, 20.0 – Hasn’t exactly been insanely dominant with a 3.21 ERA and 29.8%/8.8% K%/BB% in 14 IP at Double-A, but the stuff, size, and age relative to level all scream ace upside

18) (21) Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 19.5 – Continues to ramp up from the elbow injury and will start to throw on back to back days. Not out of the woods yet, but so far, so good

19) (20) Hunter Brown HOU, RHP, 24.8 – 8.2% BB% is the most important stat, because he’ll perform well as long he doesn’t lose his control, and he’s doing just that with a 3.09 ERA in 23.1 IP

20) (17) Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 21.4 – Called up to the majors so he can play sporadically, which is the recipe for struggles (10 wRC+ in 27 PA)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on April 24, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Welcome to Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings Week!

The first Dynasty Baseball Prospect Rankings Week of 2023 is here! I go over 300 deep and there will be a quick blurb for everyone. There has already been tons of action and tons of movement within the rankings. First part of the rankings will drop later today or tom morning at the latest with more coming all week. Come and check it all out!

-Halp

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 433 APRIL DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
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-PREDICTING THE 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECTS RANKS
-7 EARLY SEASON DYNASTY STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS

Posted on April 17, 2023April 23, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/17/23)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 433 APRIL DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 300 PROSPECTS RANKINGS COMING NEXT WEEK
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
-PREDICTING THE 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECTS RANKS
-7 EARLY SEASON DYNASTY STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS

Zach Neto LAA, SS, 22.2 – My 3rd overall FYPD prospect got the call to the bigs on Saturday, and his proximity to the majors was a major reason for his high ranking. Here is what I wrote about him in my FYPD Target & Strategy Guide, “Neto is a fast moving, relatively safe bat who will contribute in every category. He’s one of those picks where he’ll quickly be contributing for LA and you’ll be scratching your head on why you just didn’t scoop this guy. LA has literally kept the SS position open for him.” He’s currently 0 for 8, and I’m not gonna lie, even I’m surprised they called him up already. I assumed he would be a candidate for a 2nd half callup and thought I was aggressive in even thinking that. To call him up already is kinda nuts, but let’s get crazy. He’s not the type to win you any one category, but he’ll contribute in all of them.

Ryan Clifford HOU, OF, 19.9 – Let’s keep the FYPD theme going by checking in on my top later round target, Ryan Clifford. He went 0 for 5 yesterday, but that is just a small blip on his otherwise great start to the year. He’s slashing .357/.550/.500 with 1 homer and a 25%/22.5% K%/BB% in 8 games at Single-A. It’s good for a 203 wRC+. He’s setting up to be George Valera 2.0 and is backing up my high ranking of him in the early going.

Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.7 – 2 for 4 with a 107.5 MPH double and 106 MPH homer off Sandy Alcantara. Carroll is officially living up to the hype with a .288 BA, 4 homers, 6 steals, and a .842 OPS in 60 PA. He has the underlying numbers to back it up too, other than not walking a single time yet, but he was a walk machine in the minors, so I’m not too concerned. He’s a truly elite dynasty asset and should not be traded for anything less than a monstrous return.

Brett Baty NYM, 3B, 23.5 – Baty finally got the call and will make his season debut today against the Dodgers. It’s a complete head scratcher on why he didn’t break camp with the team to begin with, but better late than never. He played angry at Triple-A with 5 homers, a 21.4%/16.7% K%/BB% and 239 wRC+ in 9 games, and he’s the type of advanced hitter that could hit the ground running in the majors

Garrett Whitlock BOS, RHP, 26.10 – 7 IP, 3 hits, 1 hit, 5/2 K/BB vs. LAA. Despite only 5 K’s, he put up a 33% whiff% on the back of his slider which dominated with a 65% whiff%. The sinker hasn’t been quite as big this year with it down 1.5 MPH to 93.8 MPH, but he got it up to 96.8 MPH, so there is more in the tank when he needs it. Most importantly, he looks fully healthy coming off off-season hip surgery and I think the best is yet to come as he gets further away from that injury. He’s a buy for me, ranking 194th overall on the Updated Top 432 April Dynasty Baseball Rankings that just hit the Patreon last week.

Reid Detmers LAA, LHP, 23.9 – 6.1 IP, 6 hits, 2 ER, 7/1 K/BB vs. BOS. The fastball sat 94.6 MPH and he put up a 21% whiff% overall. He hasn’t gone full breakout like we hoped, but there is a clear uptick in stuff, and with it, an uptick in strikeout upside. If he continues to command his stuff like he did yesterday, the full breakout could still be in the cards.

Kumar Rocker TEX, RHP, 23.4 – Rocker had his 2nd straight dominant outing, going 3 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 4/1 K/BB at High-A. He now has a 0.00 ERA with a 12/1 K/BB in 8 IP. The mid 90’s high fastball followed by the fall off the table slider has befuddled lower minors hitters. While that is what he should do against inferior competition, it’s still nice to see coming off the poor AFL and his shoulder issues.

Bryan Woo SEA, RHP, 23.2 – 4 IP, 3 hits, 2 ER, 5/1 K/BB at Double-A. Woo hinted at going full breakout in the AFL, and he’s now carrying it over into Double-A with a 2.25 ERA and 12/2 K/BB in 8 IP over 2 outings. He has such an easy delivery, almost nonchalantly flinging a mid to upper 90’s rising fastball that minor league hitters have no shot at. The secondaries aren’t quite as refined and he doesn’t have pinpoint control, which probably keeps him more in the mid-rotation range, but it’s easily a Top 100 prospect profile and is worth a pick up in any size league.

Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 23.5 – 5 IP, 6 hits, 4 ER, 8/2 K/BB vs. CHW. The fastball sat 96.2 MPH and he put up a 27% whiff% on the back of his changeup (47% whiff%). He hasn’t pitched all that well with a 6.91 ERA in 14.1 IP, but everything is still pointing towards a breakout when he gets his footing. Big stuff. 5 pitch mix. Missing bats. It’s only a matter of time.

Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.7 – The power was the final tool we were waiting for, and we aren’t waiting anymore as Carter jacked his 3rd homer in 5 games at Double-A. He now has a 204 wRC+ in 9 games. The 25% K% is a little higher than optimal, but he’s still running a .389 BA. He’s locking in his at least average to above average across the board profile, and there is legit star upside if it truly all comes together.

Tyler Black MIL, 2B, 22.8 – Black is going gangbusters at Double-A after cracking his 2nd homer last night. He’s now slashing .286/.483/.619 with 2 homers, 6 steals, and a 13.8%/20.7% K%/BB% in 7 games. If the power is truly ticking up, he’s going to be mighty dangerous because the hit tool, plate approach, and speed are all certainly there. He’s an early season riser.

Luis Garcia WAS, 2B/SS, 22.10 – 1 for 4 with a 107.7 MPH bomb for his 2nd homer in 3 games. The underlying numbers are hinting that Garcia might be leveling up with a 90.3 MPH EV and 7.1% K% in 42 PA, which is easy to buy into considering he’s still only 22 years old. It’s not a full breakout as the 2.8 degree launch and 4.8% BB% still isn’t great, but at least he might be entering usable territory.

AJ Smith-Shawver ATL, RHP, 20.4 – 4.2 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 8/1 K/BB in his season debut at High-A. The big stuff is unquestioned with a mid to upper 90’s fastball, so seeing the good control is huge. If he keeps it up for a few more starts, his value will absolutely skyrocket.

Ben Brown CHC, RHP, 23.7 – 5 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 7/2 K/BB at Double-A. He’s yet to give up a run in 2 outings with 0 ER and a 13/6 K/BB in 9 IP. It’s probably mid-rotation upside with some reliever risk, but this is no doubt explosive MLB stuff.

Justin Lange NYY, RHP, 21.7 – 5 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 10/2 K/BB at Single-A. It’s Lange’s 2nd straight gem and he now has 2 ER with a 17/2 K/BB in 10 IP. The stuff is very legit too with a 95.2 MPH sinker and a 5 pitch mix which put up a 53% whiff%. He’s also 6’4”, 220 pounds. His control was horrible in 2021 and 2022, and it’s still a small sample this year, but Lange is checking a whole lot of boxes right now.

Cole Wilcox TBR, RHP, 23.9 – 4 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 7/1 K/BB at Double-A. It’s his 2nd strong outing after he missed most of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Tampa is a wizard at developing pitching, and Wilcox looks next in line to really start popping.

Henry Davis PIT, C, 23.6 – Davis crushed his 2nd homer in 8 games at Double-A out to right centerfield. Just check out that video, the dude is an absolute tank. He’s battled injuries in his young pro career, but he looks healthy this year with a 150 wRC+ and 15.4%/17.9% K%/BB%.

Nick Yorke BOS, 2B, 21.0 – Yorke got on the board for his first homer at Double-A with a line drive pull shot that cleared the fence in a hurry. He’s clearly been tinkering with his batting stance, starting with his hands higher this year. He now has a 153 wRC+ in 8 games, but most of it is on the back of a 25% BB% as his .231 BA and .385 SLG isn’t great. He’s still a solid prospect, but without the true plus hit tool, it’s not a high upside profile.

Brandon Marsh PHI, OF, 25.4 – Marsh continues to lock in his breakout status, going 4 for 6 with a double. He’s always hit the ball hard and had speed, so the improved hit tool and plate approach with a 24%/10% K%/BB% is leading the charge. He jumped from 422nd to 295th on the Updated Top 433 Dynasty Rankings.

Bryson Stott PHI, 2B/SS, 25.6 – Stott went 3 for 7 with his first homer of the year and is having a huge start to the year with a .380 BA, but the underlying numbers aren’t buying it. The .277 xwOBA is well below average and the 23.6%/1.4% K%/BB% isn’t good. I’m not buying that this a true breakout and he could be a good sell high if someone is really buying into it.

Logan Allen CLE, LHP, 24.7 – 4.2 IP, 5 hits, 1 ER, and a 9/1 K/BB at Triple-A. Allen has been on point in 3 outings this year with a 1.26 ERA and 34.5%/8.6% K%/BB% in 14.1 IP, which is good to see after he got hit up at Triple-A last year. It’s still likely a back end profile with a low 90’s fastball, and there is a lot of super talented competition for future Cleveland rotation spots.

Louie Varland MIN, RHP, 25.4 – Varland was my first “full breakout alert” and “major prospect buy” of the season back on the April 8th Dynasty Rundown, and it didn’t take long to pay off at all as he more than held his own versus the Yankees in Yankee Stadium on Friday, going 6 IP with 6 hits, 3 ER, and a 8/1 K/BB. The fastball was up 2.4 MPH to 96.2 MPH and he put up a 28% whiff% with a 4 pitch mix. As I wrote after his first Triple-A start in that Rundown, the uptick in stuff takes his upside to a whole other level. He was already sent back down because Minnesota’s rotation is jam packed, but he’s still a major buy long term.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on April 10, 2023April 13, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 433 April 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

It’s Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week over on the Patreon and the full Top 433 has now been completed. Quick blurbs for almost everyone, off-season rankings are in parenthesis, and the Top 21 are free here on the Brick Wall. Here is the Top 433 April 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-DYNASTY RUNDOWNS AND MONTHLY DYNASTY & PROSPECTS RANKINGS UPDATES
-PREDICTING THE 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECTS RANKS
-9 MILD PREDICTIONS FOR 2023 ROOKIES
-7 EARLY SEASON DYNASTY STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS
-OBP TOP 500 2023 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-PTS/6+CAT/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 500 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-POSTION BY POSITION TARGET/SLEEPER/UNDERRATED SERIES
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET

1) (1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 28.10 – 0 steals. What a disappointment

2) (2) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 22.3 – Not regressing from his breakout rookie year with a .283 BA, 2 homers and 4 steals. And it doesn’t even feel like he’s gotten hot yet.

3) (3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 25.3 – The launch angle hasn’t bounced back yet with a 4.9 degree launch, but his .434 xwOBA is back to being elite

Shadow3) (6) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 28.9

4) (6) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 26.3 – Tucker somehow still feels underrated in the baseball world. Off to an elite start with a .454 xwOBA and 2 steals

5) (4) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 25.9 – .979 OPS. The hand issue proved to be overblown

6) (9) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 24.1 – He has a .399 xBA and a .439 BA. Launch angle still isn’t optimal at 8.2 degrees, but he’s a beast no matter how you slice it

7) (5) Juan Soto SDP, OF, 24.5 – There might actually be a buy low window here with a slow start coming off a poor 2nd half. Everything in the underlying numbers shows he is still elite, but his low launch angle does cap his homer upside a bit

8) (10) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 30.11 – 1.194 OPS. He didn’t get lazy coming off the huge contract.

9) (7) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, SS/OF, 24.3 – Played generally well in spring and now has a 1.012 OPS in 4 games at Triple-A. It sure seems like he will hit the ground running when his suspension is up

10) (14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 26.5 – 95.4 MPH EV with 4 homers and a 1.084 OPS. With steals easier to come by, I might be leaning towards a masher like him earlier

11) (13) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 25.1 – Carrying over insane finish to 2022 into 2023 with a .996 OPS and .490 xwOBA. He’s yet to steal a bag though coming off only 13 steals last year, and it’s definitely a thought that he might not be a huge base stealer

12) (16) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 22.1 – The breakout is here with 4 homers, a 90.5 MPH EV and a 16.8 degree launch

13) (8) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS/3B, 22.10 – 21.1% K%, 98.4 MPH FB/LD EV (which was his issue last year), and 30.4 ft/sec sprint speed. He’s going to be fine. Don’t sell low and try to buy if you can.

14) (11) Trea Turner PHI, SS, 29.9 – Rough start everywhere you look with 0 homers, a 29.3% K% and a 28.3 ft/sec sprint (30+ his entire career). His track record is too long to worry at this point, but maybe unlike Judge, he did get lazy with the big contract?

15) (12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 30.6 – 0 homers with an 86.5 MPH EV is not what you want to see coming off off-season thumb surgery. Too early to panic, but it’s not like there is completely no reason to point to for why he is off to a slow power start

16) (15) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 22.1 – 92.5 MPH EV with a 20%/8% K%/BB% overshadows the .541 OPS

17) (17) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 30.6 – Just hasn’t got hot yet. .830 OPS and underlying numbers look good

18) (26) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 28.4 – Continues to lock in his K% gains with a career best 16.3% K%. He’s also jacked 5 homers already

19) (27) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 31.8 – Saying the back looks good is an understatement with a 1.234 OPS and .535 xwOBA.

20) (18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 30.6 – Started to take live batting practice and is expected back in June

21) (20) Shane McClanahan TBR, LHP, 25.11 – September shoulder injury looks to be behind him with a career high 97.4 MPH fastball. With Burnes struggling, he moves into my top pitcher slot

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)