2026 Top 50 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon)

When everyone was shitting on last year’s MLB Draft Class around this time last year, I wrote about how much I actually loved it. In this very article, I wrote, “Do not be scared off to trade into this FYPD class because of the rhetoric you hear from mainstream sources. In fact, you can try to use that to get a discount.” And we are already seeing how exciting that class was for fantasy purposes. Unfortunately, I can’t say the same about this year’s class. If you want to trade for 2026 FYPD picks, don’t pay up for early picks. Grab later ones on the cheap, because like all draft classes, there is still fun talent throughout the rankings. I’ll be going about 50 deep with analysis, prime projections, and where they would rank on the the Top 300 Prospect Rankings for every player. Top 6 free here on the Brick Wall. Here is the 2026 Top 50 First Year Player Draft Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
–MID-SEASON 2025 TOP 437 DYNASTY RANKS
-TOP 50 2026 FYPD RANKS
–JUNE 2025 TOP 302 PROSPECTS RANKS
-TOP 9 MID-SEASON 2025 DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS
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-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
–SPREADSHEETS

1) Ethan Holliday – COL, SS, 18.5 – Why does taking Ethan Holliday 1st overall feel like falling into a trap? Why does this feel more like Druw Jones 2.0 than Jackson Holliday 2.0? Why does getting drafted into Coors (4th overall in the Draft), the best hitter’s park in baseball, make this feel like falling even more into a trap? I’m thankful that all of my leagues hold their FYPD/available prospects draft in the off-season, after these hitters debut in pro ball and we can start to get some real data and looks on them against pro competition, because right now, I don’t feel strongly about this top pick at all. I’ve tried to put a pitcher in this top spot, but every instinct I’ve ever developed in Dynasty Baseball just wouldn’t let me do it. I’ve considered some other bats for this top spot too, but the bottom line is that there doesn’t seem to be a single player who has the talent, size, upside, bloodlines, and now ballpark to top Ethan Holliday’s potential dynasty value. He’s 6’4”, 200 pounds with a picturesque lefty swing that is smooth and explosive. It has easy double plus power potential written all over it. The dream is that he becomes a middle of the order masher hitting in Coors with power, patience and a solid hit tool. The problem is that he’s shown some swing and miss risk in his amateur career, he still likely needs to make adjustments to fully tap into his raw power, and he’s also not expected to be a big base stealer. So while it’s super easy to talk yourself out of him, there really isn’t anyone slam dunk enough to move me off him right now. For now, he’s my top dog. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 94/32/103/.266/.352/.508/10 Where he would rank in the Upcoming Top 300 Prospects Rankings: #25 – ranked around Lazaro Montes and Bryce Eldridge

2) Liam Doyle – STL, LHP, 21.1 – I really wanted to put Doyle 1st overall, but I just envisioned Doyle going down with TJ/internal brace while Holliday is ripping up the lower minors and flying up to elite prospect status in the blink of an eye, and I just couldn’t do it. But the reason I wanted to put him first overall, is because Doyle has the type of overpowering, high strikeout stuff that has the potential to simply bulldoze through the minors in the blink of an eye, a la Chase Burns. He’s not as good as Chase Burns, but he’s the closest thing this draft has to him. His main weapon is a mid to upper 90’s fastball with an elite movement profile that is elite at missing bats. The pitch is double plus to legitimately elite, and he throws it often. The secondaries aren’t quite as good, but I think they get undersold. The splitter dominated college hitters with elite whiff rates, the slider has above average potential with bat missing ability, and he’s working on a cutter too. His 42.6% K% led all of D1, and the 8.3 BB% shows the control isn’t in the true danger zone. I also think it says something that the Cardinals drafted him 5th overall. This isn’t the usual Cardinals type of pitcher. They lean floor over upside. But quite clearly they fell in love with Doyle’s upside, which I’m also falling in love with. Kade Anderson is the safer choice and he landed in the perfect situation in Seattle, but I lean pure explosion, and Doyle has more of that explosion than Anderson has right now. Doyle is my top pitcher in FYPD’s. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 14/3.33/1.07/216 in 183 IP Where he would rank in the Upcoming Top 300 Prospects Rankings: #30 – ranked around Jonah Tong, Noah Schultz, and Thomas White

3) Eli Willits – WSH, SS, 17.7 – Willits was the semi surprise 1st pick in the draft, but considering there wasn’t a truly slam dunk #1 overall pick, I don’t think it was much of a surprise at all. It seems that he will sign for an under slot deal, which surely factored into Washington’s decision, but even taking money out of it, Willits has a real case to be the top player in this class. He has one of the best hit tools in the high school class with top of the scale contact. He’s a switch hitter and his swing from both sides of the plate are super simple, easy, and very quick. He has plus speed, he’s an aggressive base runner, and he has a plus SS glove. There isn’t much present power, but he’s one of the youngest players in the class at 17 years old, and he’s 6’1”, 175 pounds, so the power should tick up naturally over time. That gives Willits one of the safest floors in the draft with hit, defense and speed, and there is enough power projection here for him to have real upside too. He was worthy of that top pick in this draft class. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 93/18/77/.283/.348/.438/31 Where he would rank in the Upcoming Top 300 Prospects Rankings: #35 – ranked around Justin Crawford, Colt Emerson, Angel Genoa and Franklin Arias

4) Kade Anderson – SEA, LHP, 21.0 – Anderson couldn’t have asked for a better landing spot than Seattle (3rd overall). Even after falling in love with Doyle’s explosiveness and pure nastiness, pitching in Seattle almost gives Anderson that extra upside nudge to match Doyle’s. And even if Anderson doesn’t have the pure stuff of Doyle, he beats Doyle on pitchability. He’s a 6’2”, 175 pound lefty with an above average to plus 4 pitch mix. The 93 MPH fastball misses tons of bats with a great movement profile, the plus slider is his main breaker, but he throws a plus curve too, and the changeup is a plus weapon vs. righties. He knows how to pitch, he throws the ball over the plate, and there is definitely some projection left on his frame, meaning there is a chance the fastball can sit mid 90’s at peak. It all led to a 3.18 ERA with a 37.4/7.3 K%/BB% in 119 IP in the SEC. It does seem more #2/3 than true top of the rotation at the moment, but again, Seattle give him a bump, and the fastball could tick up in the future. He’s the safer choice over Doyle, and it’s not like he doesn’t have upside himself. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 14/3.41/1.05/205 in 189 IP Where he would rank in the Upcoming Top 300 Prospects Rankings: #40 – ranked around Luis Morales, Logan Henderson, Hunter Barco, Gage Jump and Trey Yesavage

5) Aiva Arquette – MIA, SS, 21.9 – Selected 7th overall, Arquette was the first college bat off the board, and another one wasn’t selected until 13th overall, so he’s clearly the consensus top college bat in the draft by a good margin. The reasons aren’t hard to see. He’s 6’5”, 220 pounds with super smooth athleticism and a viciously quick and powerful righty swing. He slashed .354/.461/.654 with 19 homers, 7 steals, and a 16.5/12.6 K%/BB% in 65 games at Oregon State. He’s not expected to steal many bases, and some hit tool risk could emerge against better competition, so this is a bet on his big righty power bat. He could be a perennial 25+ homer mashing 3B at peak. Do I secretly think Ethan Conrad is the best fantasy college bat in the class? Yes. But trade value matters, and getting the best value out of your draft targets matter too. As of now, you shouldn’t have to go this high to grab Conrad, so I still think Arquette is the smarter play for top college hitter off the board. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 85/26/92/.263/.329/.471/8 Where he would rank in the Upcoming Top 300 Prospects Rankings: #50 – ranked around CJ Kayfus, Ryan Waldschmidt, and Mike Sirota

6) Ethan Conrad – CHC, OF, 21.0 – If there is one guy in this FYPD class that really makes me tingle. The guy who I would hate to leave the draft without. The guy I want to say is my guy, it’s Ethan Conrad. He can so easily become the best fantasy player in this draft, and that isn’t even close to a stretch. He’s 6’3”, 220 pounds, and I’m in love with his lefty swing. It’s loose, athletic, upright, and then he absolutely unfurls on the baseball like a big cat striking it’s prey. He was in the midst of a junior year power explosion with 7 homers in 21 games in the ACC before hurting shoulder diving for a ball which required surgery to repair. But you know I’ve been loving the shoulder surgery discount with so many hitters coming back completely fine, and obviously the Cubs thought the same thing stealing him at 17th overall in the Draft. Not only is the power no joke, but he’s fast and he loves to run with 77 steals in 88 attempts in 200 amateur games. He’s also hit extremely well everywhere he’s been since his freshman year. He had a .813 OPS in 200 PA his freshman year in the MAAC, he topped that his sophomore year in the MAC with a 1.171 OPS in 259 PA, he then went to the Cape and put up a .920 OPS in 120 PA, and then he transferred into the ACC and dropped a 1.238 OPS in 21 games. He’s literally never not hit, and his contact rates have always been pretty damn good too with a 14.4% K% this year, a 15% K% in the Cape and a 12.4% K% his sophomore year in the MAAC. He’s had some chase issues throughout this career, he’s yet to really face super tough competition as he was just getting into the meat of his ACC schedule before getting hurt, and I guess there is some risk coming off the shoulder surgery, but all of that just looks like it opens up a giant buying opportunity to me. Conrad is the guy I’m really targeting in this draft. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 83/24/88/.262/.324/.461/21 Where he would rank in the Upcoming Top 300 Prospects Rankings: #60 – ranked around Jhostynxon Garcia, Xavier Isaac and Dylan Beavers

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

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