Samuel Zavala – Imaginary Brick Wall

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/1/23)

Michael Halpern — Mon, 01 May 2023 13:57:55 +0000

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/1/23):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 433 APRIL DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 324 APRIL PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (4/28/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
-PREDICTING THE 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECTS RANKS
-7 EARLY SEASON DYNASTY STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS

Carlos Jorge CIN, 2B, 19.7 – The little man discount is one of the most reliable discounts in prospecting, and there is a small army of little prospects ready to overthrow the Heightriarchy. The 5’10”, 160 pound Jorge is leading the charge after a huge day at the dish yesterday, going 4 for 7 with a double, homer, steal, and 0/1 K/BB in a doubleheader. He’s now slashing .323/.408/.532 with 2 homers, 5 steals, and a 25.4%/11.3% K%/BB% in 18 games at Single-A. He’s never put up a wRC+ under 151 or had an OBP under .400 in his 3 year career, but because he’s not 6’3”, he immediately gets discounted. Jose Ramirez, Mookie Betts, Wander Franco, Corbin Carroll, Cedric Mullins, Francisco Lindor, Randy Arozarena, Ozzie Albies, Jose Altuve, and many more have all proven you don’t have to be 6 feet or over to be an elite MLB player. Down with the Heightriarchy.

Luisangel Acuna TEX, SS/2B, 21.1 – Not even his older brother, Ronald, could protect Luisangel from the little guy bullying that he’s had to face his entire career on prospect lists. The 5’8” Acuna stole 3 bags yesterday, and he’s been handling his business at Double-A all year, slashing .319/.369/.436 with 1 homer, 10 steals, and a 20.2%/7.7% K%/BB% in 21 games. The power hasn’t come yet, but keeping that K rate in check is huge to see, and he’s a base stealing machine.

Jonatan Clase SEA, OF, 20.11 – The 5’9”, 150 pound Clase is trying to shatter that glass ceiling with Jorge and Acuna. He went 1 for 4 with a steal and 1/2 K/BB yesterday and is now slashing .337/.455/.723 with 7 homers, 16 steals, and a 26.7%/16.8% K%/BB% in 20 games at High-A. Acuna, Jorge, and Clase were all named targets for me this off-season because I don’t see height. Clase cracked my Top 100 in the Updated Top 324 Dynasty Prospects Rankings that dropped last week on my Patreon.

Termarr Johnson PIT, 2B/SS, 18.11 – The 5’8”, 175 pound Johnson actually did get the respect he deserved in prospect rankings, but I was actually a little skeptical of how good that hit tool really was, predicting in the Predicting the Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings that “Johnson’s hit tool at Single-A won’t be as good as the hype.” He went 1 for 3 with a 2/0 K/BB yesterday and now has a 41.2% K% and .214 BA in 5 games. It’s still a super super small sample, and I still love him even if I do think the hit tool was maybe a little overhyped, but the slow start does play into my fears from the off-season.

Harry Ford SEA, C, 20.1 – The 5’10” Ford might not be tall, but he is a built like a tank, and he’s hitting like a tank. He went 2 for 6 with a double yesterday and is now slashing .282/.453/.493 with 3 homers, 5 steals, and a 18.9%/23.2% K%/BB% in 19 games at High-A. This coming off his great WBC for Great Britain which nearly got him knighted. He’s splitting his time between catcher and DH, and at this point, I almost hope he gets moved off catcher to let his bat shine. He has the speed and athleticism to play elsewhere.

Adael Amador COL, SS, 20.1 – Amador feels like he is part of the little man brigade, but he actually checks in at 6’0” on the dot. He got a late start to the season, but he’s starting to cook after drilling his first 2 homers of the year at High-A in 11 games. His elite contact rates have transferred to the level with a 11.3% K%, and so has his speed with 4 steals, but his high walk rates haven’t yet with a 3.8% BB%. His 56.8% GB% is probably too high to ever be a true power hitter, but he’s a high probability big leaguer with a strong across the board profile.

Denzel Clarke OAK, OF, 23.0 – Forget everything I just said about height. Now this is what a ballplayer is supposed to look like at 6’5”, 220 pounds with towering power and elite athleticism. This is the scout’s dream. Clark debuted on April 25th at Double-A and has done nothing but rake. He homered yesterday on a 3 for 5 day and now has 4 homers with a 372 wRC+ in 4 games. Most importantly, the K rate has been solid with a 26.3%/15.8% K%/BB%. If he can maintain even a below average K rate, oh boy, because this is a huge man with huge talent and nothing but opportunity in Oakland, er, Las Vegas.

Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 22.0 – 1 IP, 5 hits, 8 ER, 2/2 K/BB at Triple-A. Tampa’s front office are either magic yogi’s who can see into the future and demoted Bradley before he could have this blow up in the majors. Or they are humans who undeservedly sent a kid down who was killing it in the majors, and being yanked around like that messed with his performance. I choose to believe it is the former.

Logan Allen CLE, LHP, 24.7 – 5 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 8/2 K/BB vs. BOS. The fastball sat 91.9 MPH and he induced tons of weak contact with a 85.9 EV against. Allen has pitched to ace levels in his MLB debut with a 2.45 ERA and 35.6%/6.7% K%/BB%, but there are signs he is pitching above his head. The 28.7% whiff% is not as big (although still good) and the 4.54 xERA is much higher than the ERA. He also didn’t display this level of control in his minor league career. Don’t get me wrong, it’s still a super encouraging MLB debut, but I wouldn’t expect him to keep it up to this level.

Nick Frasso LAD, RHP, 24.5 – 4 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 4/2 K/BB at Double-A. LA’s pitching logjam be damned, Frasso is one of my favorite pitching targets in the minors. He now has a 1.23 ERA with a 34.9%/5.8% K%/BB% in 22 IP. He has a nasty, plus 3 pitch mix and he’s like a lefty with a funky delivery, expect he throws righty, if you know what I mean. There is certainly risk he ends up in the pen because of circumstances, injury risk, and lack of innings in his career, but I just can’t ignore how high his upside is. I named him a target in my Top Dynasty Baseball Targets that dropped on Friday on the Patreon.

Rayne Doncon LAD, 2B/SS, 19.7 – Doncon went 4 for 4 with a double, steal, and a 430 foot bomb. He’s now getting into position to truly explode up rankings, slashing .262/.344/.464 with 5 homers, 2 steals, and a 25%/11.5% K%/BB% in 20 games. He has an explosive swing that screams big time power and has shown a good feel to hit his entire career. Now is the time to get in on him if you haven’t already.

Elijah Green WAS, OF, 19.4 – Elly 2.0 has arrived. Green smashed a homer in back to back games for his first 2 of the year to go along with 8 steals and a 48.1% K% in 17 games at Single-A. He’s even rawer than we expected, but the talent is so huge it’s worth being patient for the hit tool to come around.

Samuel Zavala SDP, OF, 18.9 – Zavala broke out of his early season slump in a huge way, going 4 for 5 with a homer and a steal. All of a sudden his wRC+ is up to 106 as an 18 year old in 18 games at Single-A. It’s also a reminder of how we are still in the small sample size part of the season. One big game can take a guy from struggling hard, to being an above average hitter overnight. He’s still the phenom we thought he was.

Cam Collier CIN, 3B, 18.5 – Speaking of 18 year olds performing above average in full season ball, Collier ripped his first homer at the level on a 2 for 8 day to bring his season wRC+ up to 116 in 14 games. The 26.7% K% is a tad higher than optimal, and so is his 58.6% GB%, so while he’s not going full breakout, he’s proving his FYPD hype was deserved.

Colin Barber HOU, OF, 22.4 – Just call him high cholesterol, because Barber is the quietest killer in the minor leagues. He cracked his 2nd homer in 15 games at Double-A to bring his season wRC+ up to 145. Also, just look at his man’s quads. If this was fantasy football twitter, our heads would be exploding.

Tyler Locklear SEA, 1B, 22.5 – Locklear was drafted 58th overall as a bat first prospect, and that bat is rolling right through the lower minors after he cracked 2 homers yesterday. He has 4 homers with a 21.%/9.6% K%/BB% and 146 wRC+ in 20 games at High-A. He’s played exclusively 1B this year, so the bat will have to hit it’s ceiling to get playing time in the majors. I think the bat is real, but I probably wouldn’t get too excited until he’s doing it in the upper minors.

Cayden Wallace KC, 3B, 21.9 – Wallace went 2 for 8 with a dinger last night, and he’s another moderately hyped 2nd round pick who is handling his business at High-A, slashing .306/.414/.542 with 3 homers, 3 steals, and a 20.7%/14.9% K%/BB% in 20 games. Again, doing it at High-A doesn’t truly explode their ranking, but they are trending up and they should get the chance to prove themselves at Double-A in the not too distant future.

Jonny DeLuca LAD, OF, 24.9 – DeLuca was one of the many big risers in the Updated Top 324 Prospect Rankings, and he’s not slowing down after going 3 for 5 with his 6th homer in 20 games at Double-A. He could be that next sneaky, older prospect that comes out of nowhere for the Dodgers.

Daylen Lile WAS, OF, 20.4 – The 47th overall pick in the 2021 Draft, Lile missed all of 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but I kept the faith on him just barely by ranking him 1,012 overall on the off-season Top 1,000. I also gave you a heads up that he looked pretty good in his spring debut. That faith has been rewarded after he went 3 for 5 with a homer yesterday. He’s now slashing .333/.409/.632 with 3 homers, 5 steals, and a 19.7%/10.6% K%/BB% in 14 games at Single-A. He’s 20 at Single-A, but we can give him a pass for that because of the missed development time. Now is probably the time to get in on him.

Darell Hernaiz OAK, SS/2B/3B, 21.8 – Oakland was happy to scoop Hernaiz off the back of the overstuffed middle infield prospect Orioles truck, and he’s delivering after going 3 for 5 with a dinger last night. He’s slashing .313/.366/.453 with 2 homers, 5 steals, and a 20.8%/8.3% K%/BB% as a 21 year old at Double-A. Oakland is the perfect spot for him with playing time galore available.

Kyle Harrison SFG, LHP, 21.8 – 3.2 IP, 0 hits, 1 ER, 7/4 K/BB at Triple-A. Harrison has more walks than innings pitched, and not by a little either with 21 walks in 15.2 IP. That is extreme to say the least. The stuff is so nasty it has still resulted in only a 4.02 ERA and 35.1% K%, and 15.2 IP is still a small sample. His value is dropping because the risk is getting even higher, but in general, he is a hold for me. Let’s see if he can work through these early season control problems, as he just needs to maintain below average control to thrive.

Carson Whisenhunt SFG, LHP, 22.5 – Whisenhunt got the call to High-A and was lights out, going 4 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB. The fastball was sitting in the mid 90’s and the changeup was nasty as usual. Here are the highlights from his start. The breaking ball can definitely look a little dinky, and it’s still the lower minors, but it could be time to start getting excited. He looks like a good one.

Tsung-Che Cheng PIT, SS, 21.10 – If feels fitting to end this Rundown like we started it, with the smallest prospect of them all standing at 5’7″, 154 pounds. But his production has been anything but small (never had a wRC+ under 129 in his 3 year career), and he’s officially killing it again after going 2 for 5 with a homer yesterday. Cheng is now slashing .275/.359/.551 with 4 homers, 7 steals, and a 19%/11.4% K%/BB% in 18 games at the age appropriate High-A. His power is ticking up this year which he combines with plus speed and a good feel to hit. He also plays a solid SS, which could get his bat on the field. He’s still more of a deeper league pickup, but he’s one to keep your eye on at least.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/8/22)

Michael Halpern — Mon, 08 Aug 2022 14:19:50 +0000

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/8/22):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT, INCLUDING:
-MID-SEASON TOP 314 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 437 JULY 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS (one of my favorite things I’ve ever written)
-TOP 10 MID-SEASON TRADE TARGETS
-MID-SEASON OBP TOP 447 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-MID-SEASON POINTS/6+CATS/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 430 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 40 2023 FYPD RANKINGS

Jacob Berry MIA, OF/3B/1B, 21.2 – The 6th pick in this year’s draft, Berry has done nothing but struggle since entering pro ball. He went 0 for 3 yesterday at Single-A and is now 5 for 35 with 0 extra base hits and a 7/3 K/BB in 9 games split between rookie ball and Single-A. He’s not great on D, so the bat needs to really pop. It’s obviously too small of a sample to draw any conclusions, but I can’t help but have visions of JJ Bleday flash through my mind.

Ivan Melendez ARI, 1B, 22.7 – 0 for 3 with a 1/1 K/BB at Single-A. Talk about needing the bat to carry the day, Melendez is all bat as a 1B only prospect who got drafted as a college senior at 43rd overall. He’s 3 for 19 with 0 extra base hits and a 8/4 K/BB in 7 games split between rookie ball and Single-A. If he doesn’t start tearing apart the lower minors in short order, it will be hard for me to buy into him in off-season first year player drafts.

Peyton Graham DET, SS, 21.6 – One of my favorite targets from the 2022 draft class, ranking 17th overall on my Top 40 2023 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon), Graham is showing off the wheels early in his career, snagging his 2nd bag yesterday in 2 games at Single-A. He’s 2 for 7 with a 2/1 K/BB in the early going. He got drafted 51st overall, so the value should be there in off-season drafts.

Samuel Zavala SDP, OF, 18.0 – It took only 10 games in stateside rookie ball where Zavala put up a 1.033 OPS for him to get the call to Single-A, and he made his mark at the level yesterday with his first homer in 5 games. He’s not overmatched against the advanced competition at all with a .793 OPS and 5/4 K/BB. His value has the potential to absolutely explode down the stretch.

Jacob deGrom NYM, RHP, 33.11 – 5.1 IP, 1 hit, 2 ER, 12/1 K/BB vs. ATL. The fastball averaged 99.1 MPH and the slider put up a 90% whiff%. There is a reason I refused to budge his dynasty ranking even with the injury (36th overall on the Top 437 July Dynasty Baseball Rankings that dropped last week on Patreon), because the level of dominance is just silly. I also don’t take age into account as much for pitchers as I do hitters because pitching is so volatile and risky no matter what the age, and younger pitchers are arguably more risky than older pitchers.

Jesus Luzardo MIA, LHP, 24.8 – 7 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 6/1 K/BB vs. CHC. The fastball velocity hasn’t been what it once was with it sitting 95.5 MPH, but I’ll take that tradeoff any day of the week for the improved control he’s shown. An 11/1 K/BB in 12 IP since returning from injury is very encouraging. His stock is on the rise.

Triston McKenzie CLE, RHP, 25.0 – 8 IP, 2 hit, 0 ER, 8/1 K/BB vs. HOU. McKenzie found his control again this season with a sparkling 6.7% BB% (11.7% in 2021). His fastball isn’t good enough (92.4 MPH with a 91.4 MPH EV against) to consistently miss his spots. He’s not as good as his 3.16 ERA indicates (3.89 xERA), but he’s picking up from where he left off in his excellent 2020 rookie season.

Matt Manning DET, RHP, 24.6 – 7 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 7/3 K/BB vs. TB. Don’t get suckered in. The fastball sat only 92.2 MPH and the spin rates on his breaking balls were still poor. Stay away.

Alex Kirilloff MIN, 1B/OF, 24.6 – Kirilloff just can’t shake this wrist injury as he’s set to undergo season ending wrist surgery. It’s sadly the last straw if you were on the fence about keeping him or not. In a shallow to medium size league, it could be time to move on if there is something enticing out there on the waiver wire.

Jorge Mateo BAL, OF/2B/SS, 27.0 – 2 for 3 with a cute little 355 foot, 95.5 MPH homer. Mateo is running up his fantasy numbers with 11 homers and 26 steals, but he’s taking advantage of Baltimore’s last season of rebuilding, because a 85 wRC+ is not going to get the job done when they promote all of their top prospect talent next season. I know Baltimore is 4 games over .500, but Mike Elias was smart to not get caught up in the fairy tale season of plucky underdogs. It won’t be long before they are the hated favorites. Be careful trading for Mateo expecting full time playing time beyond this season.

Brett Baty NYM, 3B, 22.8 – The only thing missing was homer power, and it ain’t missing anymore as Baty demolished his 19th homer at Double-A out to deep centerfield off Deivi Garcia. He now has a .950 OPS in 89 games. He still has only a 30.3% FB%, and a 25.2% K% ain’t great, so a 5×5 BA league might not be his bread and butter, but he’s easily a Top 20 prospect in any league that values good real life hitters (Pts, 6+ cats, OBP, OPS etc …). And even in a 5×5 BA league he’s a damn good prospect. It’s time for Triple-A.

Luis Matos SFG, OF, 20.4 – Look who decided to finally show up to the 2022 season. Matos homered for the 2nd time in 3 games and now has a .903 OPS in his last 5 games at High-A. Problem is that it comes with a 6/1 K/BB, which makes it hard for me to really buy back in. He’s still flirting with Top 100 prospect status for me, so I’m not giving up on him, but it’s been a disaster year.

Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 19.11 – Lawlar is starting to come alive at High-A, going 4 for 6 with a homer and double yesterday. The overall line at the level is still rough with a .700 OPS and 23/4 K/BB in 19 games, but after putting up a 1.051 OPS at Single-A, it’s likely just a slump that coincided with him getting promoted. He’s a top 10 prospect.

Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 21.11 – 3 for 5 with a double, homer, and 2 K’s at Triple-A. People were starting to talk some smack about Carroll’s swing and miss, so of course not only did he improve that aspect of his game, but he did it after getting promoted to Triple-A with a 15/15 K/BB in 18 games. He’s the undisputed top prospect in the game, but he’s lucky Chourio went on a mini cold streak (1 for his last 14) because Chourio was charging hard for that top spot.

Tyler Soderstrom OAK, C/1B, 20.8 – Soderstrom got the call to Double-A last week and he now has a .857 OPS in 6 games after going 3 for 5 with a double last night. It comes with a 6/0 K/BB, which is basically exactly what he was doing at High-A with big power and a weak plate approach. He’s played more games at 1B than catcher this year, so at best you’re hoping for enough games behind the plate to qualify, but it’s not something I would bank on when planning the future of my team. I would assume he ends up 1B only and anything extra is icing on the cake.

Vaughn Grissom ATL, SS, 21.6 – Grissom unloaded for his 3rd homer in 21 games at Double-A. He’s had no problems at the level with a 137 wRC+ and 7 steals. He rose all the way to 33rd overall on the July Top 314 Dynasty Prospects Rankings (Patreon), and he will rise even higher on the August Rankings that drop tomorrow.

MJ Melendez KCR, C, 23.6 – 2 for 3 with a 406 foot bomb. Melendez is quietly having an excellent rookie season with a strong plate approach (25.9%/11.4% K%/BB%), a respectable whiff% (28.2%), and no doubt power (90.5 MPH EV). He’s one of the top young catchers in the game.

Tanner Bibee CLE, RHP, 23.4 – 6 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 6/0 K/BB at Double-A. Bibee’s value was already rising, and it’s set to take off now that he is dominating Double-A with a 1.71 ERA and 32/3 K/BB in 31.1 IP. The fastball has jumped up into the mid 90’s this year and he’s in one of the best pitching development organizations in the game. He’s a pick up in any size league.

DL Hall BAL, LHP, 23.10 – 5.1 IP, 5 hits, 2 ER, 8/3 K/BB at Triple-A. I hope you like your strikeouts with a side of walks because a 14% BB% is definitely worrisome.

Matthew Liberatore STL, LHP, 22.9 – 6 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 10/3 K/BB at Triple-A. Despite the great start, 2022 has been a step back for Liberatore with him struggling in both the majors (5.33 ERA) and the minors (4.77 ERA). He’s still a talented prospect, but if you can get good value for him based on his name value, I would jump on it.

Kerry Carpenter DET, OF, 24.11 – Carpenter hit a laser to the opposite field for his 2nd homer in 2 games and 29th homer in 95 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. His plate approach seriously improved when he hit Triple-A with a 17/17 K/BB in 33 games. Detroit’s entire roster is basically wide open, making Carpenter a good add if you need power down the stretch.

Wenceel Perez DET, 2B, 22.9 – Continuing the take a shot on fringy-ish Detroit prospects theme, Perez ripped his 5th homer in 35 games at Double-A. He’s had strong contact rates his entire career (13.4%/10/1% K%/BB% at Double-A), and his power is ticking up this year with his groundball percentage dropping all the way to 32.1% (51% in 2021). He’s fast, but his stolen base track record in the minors makes me hesitant to project 20+ steals for him (5 for 9 at Double-A). He’s likely a low upside solid across the board type.

Darick Hall PHI, 1B, 27.1 – 2 for 4 with 2 bombs off Cory Abbott. Hall has done nothing but destroy baseballs since getting called up with an elite 92.2/97.5 MPH AVG/FB EV, and it’s led to a .933 OPS in 109 PA. He looks like strictly a platoon bat, and a 27.5%/4.6% K%/BB% is going to make his BA a problem long term, but he’s proving he can mash with the best of them.

Peyton Burdick MIA, OF, 25.4 – 1 for 3 with a 108.6 MPH, 421 foot homer for his first MLB bomb in 3 games. He hit .229 at Triple-A, so he’ll tank your BA, but he has value in an OBP league with high walk rates his entire career. He’s worth a shot in a medium to deep OBP league.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

San Diego Padres 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Michael Halpern — Mon, 17 Jan 2022 14:29:08 +0000

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys and talk some team specific strategy for every team to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the San Diego Padres 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
–A Top 413 Sneak Peek of my 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings with more early releases coming all off-season
–Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Top 256 OF/Top 122 SS/Top 88 3B/Top 90 2B/Top 78 1B/Top 56 C)
–Top 50 First Year Player Draft Rankings (full Top 100 coming out with the Top 1,000 Rankings)
-Dynasty Team Reports for every team (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Previous Teams on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles-Boston Red Sox (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds–Cleveland Indians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Los Angeles Dodgers (free)–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees–Oakland Athletics–Philadelphia Phillies–Pittsburgh Pirates–Seattle Mariners–San Francisco Giants–St. Louis Cardinals (free)–Tampa Bay Rays (free)–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

Hitters

Manny Machado SD, 3B, 29.9 – Machado’s underlying power numbers exploded this year, shattering career highs in exit velocity (93.1 MPH), Max EV (119.6 MPH) and HardHit% (52.2%). The gains didn’t really show up in his surface stats with 28 homers and a .836 OPS, but at the very least it is reminder of how elite Machado can be. He’s been a bit inconsistent in his career, going back and forth between great years and solid years since 2017, so if the trend holds, he is in for one hell of a 2022. He doesn’t seem to be getting the respect he deserves in early dynasty drafts, and if you can buy low based on the mediocre surface stats, I would jump on it. 2022 Projection: 94/34/103/.283/.354/.522/10

Trent Grisham SD, OF, 25.5 – Grisham couldn’t maintain his 2020 power breakout with his HardHit% dropping 5 percentage points to 36.8%, his Max EV dropping 2.5 MPH to 109.4 MPH and his launch angle dropping 1.2 degrees to 12.3 degrees. He’s still showing a plus plate approach with plus speed, so if the power ticks back up as he enters his mid 20’s, he can be an above average all category contributor. I’m buying low if I can. 2022 Projection: 84/22/81/.257/.354/.445/15

Ha-Seong Kim SD, SS/3B/2B, 26.5 – Kim was put in position to fail. He is a young player who needs full time at-bats to be given the chance to adjust to MLB pitching. He never really got that shot and he struggled all season with a .622 OPS. The underlying numbers aren’t hopeless though with a solid 23.8%/7.4% K%/BB%, plus runtimes (28.4 ft/s sprint speed), and the ability to lift the ball (13 degree launch angle). He’ll need to hit the ball harder in 2022 (86.8/91 MPH AVG/FB EV) to convince San Diego he deserves a full time job. 2022 Projection: 43/12/47/.241/.310/.412/10

Starting Pitchers

Blake Snell SD, LHP, 29.4 – It took Snell until August to find his groove, but it was a sight to behold when he did with a 1.83 ERA and 65/14 K/BB in 44.1 IP. A left adductor strain (groin), ended his season in mid September, but that shouldn’t be a concern moving forward. He got lit up with a 5.44 ERA in 84.1 IP before that because he completely lost his control with 55 walks. Robbie Ray is a good reminder to never give up on strikeout machines with control problems, especially in fantasy. I’ll take any discount I can get on Snell. He ranked 83rd overall on my Top 413 Sneak Peek of the 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings. 2022 Projection: 11/3.58/1.26/204 in 160 IP

Chris Paddack SDP, RHP, 26.3 – Paddack wasn’t able to bounce back from a down 2020, notching a 5.07 ERA in 108.1 IP. His K% dropped to a career low 21.6% and batters hit him hard with a 90.5 MPH EV against. Even his changeup regressed this year with a slightly below average .315 xwOBA. Along with performance issues, his rotation spot is far from guaranteed. I’m avoiding him in 2022. 2022 Projection: 7/4.23/1.25/116 in 120 IP

Adrian Morejon SDP, LHP, 23.1 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in late April 2021 and will likely be out until mid-season 2022. Morejon was one of my favorite targets last off-season with a 96.3 MPH fastball and 3 potentially plus, swing and miss secondaries in his changeup, curve and slider. He added a sinker to the mix this year and the extremely small sample results were positive with a 30.8% whiff% and negative 3 degree launch angle. He seems mostly forgotten about, but he has the kind of premium stuff that is worth waiting on. He is an easy flier that you can probably get for close to nothing at this point. 2022 Projection: 3/4.12/1.31/62 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.79/1.24/177 in 162 IP

Bullpen

Dinelson Lamet SDP, RHP, 29.8 – Lamet can’t shake the injury bug as elbow/forerm problems limited him to 47 IP and he was moved to the bullpen in September. The fastball/slider combo wasn’t as elite as it was in 2020, but it was still good with a 95.5 MPH fastball and a slider that put up a .204 xwOBA. His role for 2022 is undetermined, and it is possible he ends up as San Diego’s closer. While I don’t mind taking a flier, his name value could push his value higher than I’m willing to pay. 2022 Projection: 5/3.71/1.23/105 in 85 IP

San Diego Padres Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects

1) CJ Abrams SDP, SS, 21.6 – A fractured tibia and sprained MCL ended Abrams season after just 42 games. He proved his plus hit tool and speed will transfer against advanced competition at Double-A, slashing .296/.363/.420 with 2 homers, 13 steals (in 15 attempts), and a 19.7%/8.2% K%/BB% at Double-A. His power isn’t there yet, and there is a chance it will never be a major part of his game, but he still looks pretty skinny to me at 6’2”, 185 pounds and don’t think those man muscles have come in yet. The power will tick up in time. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 95/18/75/.288/.342/.437/27

2) Robert Hassell SDP, OF, 20.7 – Hassell dominated Single-A (139 wRC+) with a plus plate approach (17.2%/13.3% K%/BB%) and speed (31 steals), but he only hit 7 homers in 92 games with a 52.1% GB%. He then went to High-A for 18 games and proved he has the ability to make adjustments to get to his power, jacking 2 homers with a 32.7% GB%. The K% rose with the power to 28.7%, but it’s still a good sign he will eventually be able to put it all together. He’s 6’2’’, 195 pounds, so while he is expected to be a hit tool, speed guy, I wouldn’t rule out a power explosion. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 93/18/74/.277/.358/.446/23

3) James Wood SDP, OF, 19.7 – Selected 62nd overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Wood is a big and athletic lefty at 6’7”, 240 pounds with plus power and above average run times. He dominated rookie ball in his pro debut, slashing .372/.465/.535 with 3 homers, 10 steals and a 31.7%/12.9% K%/BB% in 26 games. Like any player this tall, he has some hit tool concerns, and his GB% was a bit high at 49%. This is basically the Oneil Cruz starter kit. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 73/24/81/.247/.326/.458/9

4) Victor Acosta SDP, SS, 17.10 – Acosta signed for $1.8 million in last years international class and he impressed right out of the gate in pro ball, slashing .285/.431/.484 with 5 homers, 26 steals, and a 18.8%/15.8% K%/BB% in 56 games in the DSL. He’s a switch hitter who hits well from both sides of the plate, but his lefty swing looks particularly dangerous to me. If his power fully develops, he has superstar upside, and even if it doesn’t his hit tool and speed are enough to make him a truly impact player. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 87/20/78/.274/.352/.445/24

5) MacKenzie Gore SDP, LHP, 23.1 – Gore’s alt site reports in 2020 were mediocre at best, and we saw those problems play out in 2021 with a pitching line of 3.93/1.47/61/28 in 50.1 IP (6.35 ERA with a 8/6 K/BB in 11.1 IP in the AFL). He showed control issues, delivery issues, and inconsistent stuff. At his best he still flashed 4 plus pitches from the left side, so he is far form a lost cause, but he is also far from a finished product. 2022 Projection: 2/4.42/1.37/42 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.88/1.32/168 in 155 IP

6) Luis Campusano SD, C, 23.6 – Campusano unlocked his power in 2021 with a career best 40.2% GB, leading to 15 homers in 81 games at Triple-A. He had a 52.2% HardHit% on 23 batted balls in his MLB cup of coffee this year. He couldn’t keep up the elite 11.7% K% he put up at High-A in 2019 with a 20.2% K% in 2021 (37.9% whiff% in the majors), so I think his ultimate batting average is more of a question than his power at this point. 2022 Projection: 25/7/28/.248/.308/.424/0 Prime Projection: 69/22/76/.266/.327/.462/0

7) Samuel Zavala SDP, OF, 17.9 – Zavala signed for $1.2 million in last year’s international class and like Acosta he lived up to the signing in his pro debut, slashing .297/.400/.487 with 3 homers, 11 steals (in 18 attempts) and a 15.3%/13.6% K%/BB% in 55 games in the DSL. He has an easy, smooth lefty swing with an advanced plate approach and developing power. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 83/22/78/.274/.348/.462/7

8) Jackson Merrill SDP, SS, 18.11 – Selected 27th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Merrill surely looks the part at 6’3”, 195 pounds with a sweet looking lefty swing. He was solid in his pro debut with a 22.5%/8.3% K%/BB% and 5 steals in 31 games, but he hit 0 homers and put up a 92 wRC+. He doesn’t really have a standout offensive skill, but you don’t have to be a super scout to watch him and realize there is definitely potential in the bat. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 73/21/79/.262/.327/.438/7

9) Eddy Beltre SDP, OF, 18.0 – Beltre was a DSL standout, slashing .295/.423/.446 with 3 homers, 24 steals, and a 16.8%/13.9% K%/BB% in 32 games. He has double plus speed with a good feel to hit and developing power. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 78/18/71/.267/.332/.427/23

10) Joshua Mears SDP, OF, 21.1 – Mears is 6’3”, 230 pounds with massive raw power that he has no trouble getting to. He crushed 17 homers with a 51.2% FB% in 71 games at Single-A, but it comes with extreme strikeout issues (39.2%/12.4% K%/BB%). ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 58/20/66/.223/.313/.453/4

11) Daniel Montesino SDP, 1B/OF, 18.2 – Montesino got a million bucks in last year’s international class. He is a bat first prospect with some defensive concerns, so there is a lot of pressure on his bat, but so far, so good as he slashed .316/.444/.489 with 4 homers, 8 steals, and a 21.8%/17.7% K%/BB% in 56 games in the DSL. He has the potential to hit for both power and average at peak. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 69/24/78/.254/.331/.450/4

Strategy

San Diego has the 6th best pitcher’s park in baseball, making all of their pitchers great targets. It makes me love Morejon even more. Their ballpark is particularly death of left handed hitters, majorly suppressing homers, so it does make me worry a bit about a power breakout for someone like Grisham (he hit 4 homers at home and 11 on the road in 2021) who doesn’t have huge raw power. It could also impact the upside of Cronenworth, and we’ve all basically given up on a Hosmer homer breakout.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)