Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
Spread: NE – 5

The public is favoring Kansas City right now, with 60% of the bets coming in on them. Always be skeptical of a public underdog. People are looking at a Kansas City team that has won 11 straight, a New England team that is banged up, and are running for the points. Vegas is more than happy to back Bill Belichick at home with two weeks to prepare. Making the spread 5 almost seems like they are goading bettors into taking Kansas City.

The Pick: Take Kansas City plus the points. I’m a sucker.

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: Ari -7

Another game with the public backing the underdog, with 56% of the bets coming in on Green Bay. Didn’t take much to get people back on that Packers bandwagon, huh. Vegas will be backing Arizona, who just beat this Green Bay team by 30 points a few weeks ago. Aaron Rodgers told reporters earlier this week, “the pressure’s all going to be on them.”

The Pick: Take Green Bay plus the points. They were my sole victory from last week (sort of), and I am going to keep riding them.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans
Spread: KC – 3.5

Houston: Completely throw out KC’s 27-20 victory over Houston in Week 1. Both teams are playing at a completely different level than they were earlier in the season. Led by last year’s Defensive Player of the Year, and prolific television commercial actor, JJ Watt, Houston comes into Saturday’s game with the 3rd ranked defense in the league. QB Brian Hoyer also enjoyed a quiet breakout season, putting up a 91.4 QB Rating in 11 games. And the best WR that nobody is talking about, DeAndre Hopkins, just torched the league to the tune of 111/1,521/11. Houston has won six of their last eight games, and are fired up to avenge their Week 1 loss.

Kansas City: KC is on a 10-game win streak of their own, and have been the talk of the NFL for weeks now. They are not invincible though. They struggled to beat the Cleveland Browns and Oakland Raiders at home the last two weeks, winning by a measly ten combined points. Alex Smith is also not the strong-armed, gun slinging QB you want to bet on in a road playoff game against the 3rd best pass defense in the league. Do not be surprised if KC finds it very hard to come by points this Saturday. KC does have a strong defense, ranked 7th in the league, but they are not the type of dominating unit that can carry the team on their own.

The Pick: If you are looking for the “nobody believed in us” team, Houston is it. Admit it, you still don’t believe in them (Update: And for good reason, as they just got blown out 30-0 on Saturday). I do though. Take Houston at home plus the 3.5 points.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Pitt -3

Andy Dalton got injured at the wrong time. Big Ben’s injury came at the right time. I could write a longer analysis, but sometimes it really is that simple.

The Pick: Pitt -3

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com