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Hitters

Jordan Walker – STL, OF, 23.10 – Walker is a cautionary tale of when bat speed targets go wrong. The man swung a 78.1 MPH bat, which was 5th fastest in baseball (minimum 50 swings), behind Giancarlo Stanton, Oneil Cruz, Junior Caminero, and Riley Adams (and one ahead of Jhonkensy Noel). Just look at that list. That thing ain’t bulletproof. Cruz was a huge disappointment, Adams put up a .560 OPS in 286 PA, and Noel fell off the face of the earth with a .480 OPS in 153 PA. And of course, Walker was almost incomprehensibly bad with a .584 OPS in 396 PA. I’ve talked about it a bunch now this off-season, but don’t overrate bat speed. I was all over it last off-season and got some major hits from it, but it wasn’t some be all, end all stat that perfectly predicted breakouts. Many players were able to increase their bat speed substantially, making it risky to assume a players current bat speed is set in stone, and there were huge power breakouts from guys who actually decreased their bat to below average levels (Michael Busch). You can swing the bat as fast as you want, but if you can’t hit, you are in trouble, and Walker can’t hit anymore. The 31.8% K% and 36.6% whiff% were career worsts, leading to a .215 BA. He chases with a 34.1% chase% and he doesn’t lift/pull with a 11.3% Air Pull%. You can have all the talent in world, and Walker does have all the talent in the world, but it doesn’t matter if you can’t hit. He’s still young and he has a 116 wRC+ season under his belt in 2023, so of course I’m not sticking a fork in him, but I’m no longer going after him. As a free flier, bottom of the roster guy, sure, but anything more than that and I’ll pass. – 2026 Projection: 53/13/59/.233/.300/.400/11

Ivan Herrera – STL, C/DH, 25.10 – Herrera was my top catcher target last off-season, and I’m definitely pumped about the awesome season he had, clearly seeing his value rise majorly, but let’s be honest, a monkey could have thrown a rock and hit on a catcher breakout in 2025. He also lost catcher eligibility in most leagues with only 14 games played, but all signs point towards him getting it back quickly into 2026. Both Herrera and the Cardinals are fully committed to him as a catcher and working to improve defensively this off-season. He underwent elbow surgery to remove loose bodies in October, which is a great sign, because there is hope that can improve the biggest weakness of his game, throwing guys out. Even if he can’t maintain eligibility long term, it seems highly likely he will have it for most of 2026, and his bat is good enough to go after even with that risk. The reason I loved him so much last off-season was that his .367 xwOBA led all catchers, and while he didn’t lead all catchers in 2026, he took it up a notch to .371. There is no question this dude is a special hitter. He increased his bat speed 1.1 MPH to 74.3 MPH and it led to even more power with a 1.9 MPH increase in EV to 91.2 MPH and a 5.6 point increase in Hard Hit to 47.7%. It led to 19 homers in only 107 games. He combined the power increase with a 18.6/9.5 K%/BB%, and while he doesn’t lift and pull a ton, the 10.1 degree launch and 14.6% Air Pull% is conducive to both homers and BA. He also runs a bit with 8 steals. The bat is good enough to profile anywhere (they dabbled with him in the OF in 2025) and is clearly one the Cards are going to get in the lineup no matter what. – 2026 Projection: 78/23/78/.280/.368/.465/9

Willson Contreras – STL, 1B, 33.11 – The hope that Contreras would unlock some new level of hitting without having to be a catcher didn’t come to pass with him putting up a 124 wRC+ vs. his career 122 wRC+. Still really good, but 20 homers with a .257 BA didn’t exactly blow the doors off even being able to use him at catcher. There was also hope playing full time would make him a cheat code at the position, and while he wasn’t a cheat code, it definitely helped him to finish 6th at the position. He put up a career high 563 PA and it led to a career high 70 Runs and 80 RBI. It wasn’t the beast we wanted, but we at least got a small bump from it. Now going into 2026 he will be losing catcher eligibility and turning 34 years old, so it would be hard to expect anything more than a solid 1B bat, but I do see an avenue to some upside. He put up a career best 19.8% Air Pull%, and while he couldn’t fully take advantage of it in the 5th worst park for righty homers (7 homers at home vs. 13 on the road), he is getting major trade buzz this off-season. If he lands in the right ballpark, we might see that offensive explosion we hoped for in 2025. Even without out, he’s still an excellent hitter regardless of position with an elite 76 MPH swing and 13.9% Barrel%. Losing catcher eligibility hurts, but don’t underrate him going into 2026. We could still see a huge season depending on if he gets traded or not. – 2026 Projection: 73/24/84/.260/.350/.465/4

Pitchers

Matthew Liberatore – STL, LHP, 26.5 – Liberatore put up a 4.21 ERA with a 18.8/6.2 K%/BB% in 151.2 IP  … and that makes him the fearsome staff ace of the St. Louis Cardinals … remember this when everyone calls Tink Hence, Brandon Clarke, and even Liam Doyle future relievers. St. Louis would have to be out their damn mind to shift anyone into the bullpen until they’re like 29 years old and 3 Tommy John’s deep. Until that time, they are starters. How could you draw any other conclusion looking at this shit show? To Liberatore’s credit, he did actually “breakout” in 2025 by improving his control to plus levels with a 6.2% BB%. The curveball put up an impressive .192 xwOBA and 32.6% whiff%, the changeup put up a +7 Run Value, and the slider was solid with a +2 Run Value and 32% whiff%. The problem was that the 93.9 MPH fastball just wasn’t very good. It got destroyed with a .379 xwOBA and a lowly 12.1% whiff%. A bad fastball with maybe above average secondaries and above average to plus control just isn’t very enticing. It’s a #4/5 profile that plays down in fantasy due to the lack of strikeouts. – 2026 Projection: 9/4.08/1.29/139 in 160 IP

Michael McGreevy – STL, RHP, 25.9 – Liberatore better be careful, because McGreevy might just surpass him as staff “ace.” Sure all of his secondaries are bad, and sure his 4-seamer is actually worse than Liberatore’s, but his control is bordering on elite with a 5% BB%, and his 91.8 MPH sinker is a genuinely awesome pitch. It put up a +9 Run Value with a .278 xwOBA and negative 1 degree launch. It was dominant in 2024 in the majors too, so that wasn’t a fluke. It led to a 4.42 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and a 14.5/5.0 K%/BB% in 95.2 IP. That K% is awful, and while the 19.2% whiff% shows his true talent level is higher than that, that whiff rate is really bad too. Like I said, his secondaries and 4-seamer were bad. He threw the sinker only 21.7% of the time, and I have no idea why. He should throw it like 70% of the time and I’m not sure I’m kidding. If you want to look for some hope, the secondaries were much better at Triple-A and he put up a 25.5% K% there, so he should do better as he gains more experience in the majors. He’ll be in a great ballpark and even if he’s a back end starter, his WHIP has the potential to be a plus in fantasy due to the elite walk rates. There are worse options out there in deeper leagues, but he’s only a deeper league play right now. He’s not going to be one of my favorite fliers in shallower leagues. – 2026 Projection: 9/4.05/1.21/121 in 160 IP

St. Louis Cardinals 2026 Top 10 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Prospects Rankings

1) JJ Wetherholt – STL, 2B/SS, 23.7 – Wetherholt was exactly who we thought he was. It’s exactly who he’s been since his freshman year of college. It’s exactly who he’s been since his pro debut in 2024. And now it’s exactly who he’s been through the upper minors, slashing .306/.421/.510 with 17 homers, 23 steals, and a 14.7/14.5 K%/BB% in 109 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He crushes the ball with a 91.4 MPH EV and 49% Hard Hit%, he’s got speed, and the plate skills are near elite. He’s not a huge lift and pull guy, but he doesn’t have to be for this type of profile. The 12 degree launch and 13.6% Air Pull% aren’t too bad, and he can easily improve on those over time. The 24.3 whiff% at Triple-A wasn’t quite as good as the K%, so he might not truly be an elite contact guy, but the hit tool is clearly plus at least. He was projected to be a .280/20/20 type coming out of the draft, and that is now cemented with his excellent first full year of pro ball. He’s also expected to break camp with the big league club as their starting 2B. Proximity, safety, upside … he’s got it all. This is an elite prospect. – 2026 Projection: 76/16/68/.262/.331/.425/19 Prime Projection: 103/21/82/.284/.369/.473/24

2) Joshua Baez – STL, OF, 22.9 – Back in early July, when Baez was still getting lukewarm love, when people were still hesitant to really go all in, I saw the opportunity to strike, naming him one of my top Mid-Season Targets, writing, “This guy just has Lawrence Butler 2.0 written all over him. I know his hype has been rising, but I still think even a super savvy dynasty owner might be looking at him as a perfect sell high opportunity. Popped up “out of nowhere,” there is hit tool risk, they just might be thinking they are the one getting one over on you, but it’s going to be the other way around. Play possum on this one. Dummy up. Because what Baez is doing is exactly what Butler did. He’s an absolute specimen at 6’3”, 220 pounds, he crushes the ball, he has 34 steals in 39 attempts in 69 games total, and he now has a 25.8/16.4 K%/BB% in 31 games at Double-A. He’s proving his hit tool gains are real. And the insane, true elite talent is there. Pretend you’re the fool buying in too hard, and then don’t gloat when in a year or two their former owner realizes the mistake they make. You just got lucky ;)” … and then not only did he continue to keep it up, he took the hit tool up a notch with a 14.1%/10.6% K%/BB% in his final 40 games of the season at Double-A. The dude is a jacked 6’3” version of Kevin McGonigle out there ha, not quite, but you get the point. He finished the season going 20/54 in 117 games. Like we saw with Lawrence Butler in 2025, it’s hard to feel we are ever completely out of the woods with the hit tool risk on these types, but the massive improvement he showed, combined with his monster upside, is worthy of an extremely high ranking on a fantasy list especially. Since I wrote that Target blurb, his hype has already exploded, and if you took my advice back then, you almost surely already feel like you got one over on somebody. But he’s still on the underrated side now too, so it’s not too late. This is a Top 20 dynasty prospect, and that might still be underselling him. – 2026 Projection: 17/6/23/.228/.301/.418/7 Prime Projection: 79/25/84/.248/.327/.471/28

3) Liam Doyle – STL, LHP, 21.10 – Having an elite fastball is so important if you want to truly break into to the upper echelon of MLB pitchers. I wrote about it in the Blue Jays Team Report when I was giving my reasoning for going Burns over Yesavage (I still love Yesevage) as the #1 pitching prospect in baseball, and it’s my reasoning for giving Doyle the very slight edge over Kade Anderson in FYPD Rankings. Doyle has the type of overpowering, high strikeout, mid to upper 90’s, elite movement profile fastball that has the potential to simply bulldoze through the minors in the blink of an eye, a la Chase Burns. He’s not as good as Chase Burns, but he’s the closest thing this draft has to him. The secondaries aren’t as impressive as the fastball, which is where the edge goes to Anderson (and Anderson has an excellent fastball too despite the mediocre velocity), but I think they get undersold. The splitter dominated college hitters with elite whiff rates, the slider has above average potential with bat missing ability, and he’s working on a cutter too. His 42.6% K% led all of D1, and the 8.3 BB% shows the control isn’t in the true danger zone. I also think it says something that the Cardinals drafted him 5th overall. This isn’t the usual Cardinals type of pitcher. They lean floor over upside (although that seems to be changing of late). But quite clearly they fell in love with Doyle’s upside, which I’m also falling in love with. Kade Anderson is the safer choice and he landed in the perfect situation in Seattle, but I lean pure explosion, and Doyle has more of that explosion than Anderson has right now. St. Louis also has a pitcher’s park. Doyle is my top pitcher in FYPD’s, non Imai division (who I have 1st overall), and it sure seems like he’s going to debut in 2026. – 2026 Projection: 4/3.82/1.27/75 in 70 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.33/1.07/209 in 178 IP

4) Rainiel Rodriguez – STL, C, 19.3 – Because I felt the need to kinda shit on Rodriguez a bit in the Duno blurb (which you can read in the Cincinnati Reds Team Report that I posted on the Brick Wall a few weeks ago), let me start off this blurb with some excitement, because Rodriguez deserves it. He was the top catcher breakout in the DSL in 2024 with a monstrous 10 homers and 190 wRC+ in 41 games, and then he managed to one up even that at stateside rookie in 2025 with 7 homers and 237 wRC+ in 20 games. That kind of dominance at the rookie ball levels is some of the best we’ve really ever seen, so it was no surprise to also see him kill it at Single-A, slashing .249/.373/.498 with 13 homers, 3 steals, and a 17.4/14.0 K%/BB% in 60 games. I completely understand looking at this level of production as an 18 year old and saying this is one of the most special bats in the minors league, period, regardless of position. He’s a lift and pull god with a 20 degree launch and 29.4% Air Pull%, the plate skills are excellent, and he hits it hard, especially for his age, with a 104.3 MPH 90th% EV and 39.2% Hard Hit%. I love his bat. The things to quibble with are just that, minor quibbles. Sure the path to playing time isn’t clear, but a bat like this generally clears the way for itself no matter who is in it’s path. The ballpark isn’t great, and with his current level of lift/pull and hard hit, it could result in low batting averages, but he’s so young that it would be silly to just say this is always who he is going to be. He will likely hit the ball harder at peak and also refine his general approach. Just because I have Duno ranked higher by a hair doesn’t mean I don’t love Rodriguez. I think it says more about how much I love Duno. Both are awesome. He ranked 15th overall in the Top 81 Catcher 2026 Dynasty Baseball Positional Rankings (Patreon). – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 76/27/83/.268/.354/.477/3

5) Tink Hence – STL, RHP, 23.0 – Just look at St. Louis’ rotation. There is no reason for them to prematurely put anyone in the bullpen, and while Hence might not have the durability required to stick in the rotation, I don’t think St. Louis is done giving him that chance. I know everyone else is writing him off, but I’m not willing to do that yet. 2025 was basically a lost season, pitching just 21.1 IP due to a ribcage injury and shoulder inflammation. He battled shoulder, chest and lat issues in 2024. I’m not saying the injury risk isn’t sky high, because it is, I’m just saying if it were me, I’m holding him. His stuff is too good and his delivery is too smooth. The changeup might be straight elite, he’s got two good breakers in his gyro slider and curve, and the fastball sits mid 90’s. The righty delivery is truly a thing of beauty. He’s coming off a season where he put up a 2.71 ERA with a 34.1/8.1 K%/BB% in 79.2 IP at Double-A. Giving up on this would be nuts to me. I’m not willing to do it. I’m holding or grabbing him for free if his current prospect ranks are any indication of his dynasty value. – 2026 Projection: 2/4.05/1.32/28 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 9/3.68/1.23/147 in 140 IP

6) Brandon Clarke – STL, LHP, 23.0 – Remember what I said in the Doyle blurb about St. Louis moving away from their usual safety over upside approach when it comes to pitching? Well, targeting Clarke in the Sonny Gray trade is Exhibit B. When you talk about “looking the part,” nobody looks the part more than Clarke at 6’4”, 220 pounds with an athletic and smooth lefty delivery that he uses to fire upper 90’s gas with a potentially double plus slider. When he got off to a hot start to the season, it was giving visions of Garrett Crochet 2.0, but he couldn’t keep it up, finishing with a 4.03 ERA and 34.5/15.5 K%/BB% in 38 IP at mostly High-A. The lack of control got him in the end, and it’s that lack of control that can end up relegating him to the bullpen. Even if he does end up in the pen, he has the potential to be a dominant closer, but St. Louis has every reason to be as patient as possible. He simply hasn’t pitched very much, redshirting his freshman year at Alabama and barely pitching his sophomore year at Junior College. He dominated when healthy his junior year, and then he flashed that upside in pro ball, albeit in limited innings due to blisters. He underwent Tommy John surgery and had issues with his elbow earlier in his amateur career, which is why he barely pitched before his junior year. You might see that as risk, well, because it is risk, but I see it as opportunity for so much improvement potential. St. Louis is the perfect place for him, and I’m buying that upside. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 7/3.77/1.28/142 in 130 IP

7) Deniel Ortiz – STL, 1B/3B, 21.7 – I can’t help myself, I’m going after Ortiz. The red flags are there. He put up a 32% whiff% at Single-A, he’s not fast despite the high steal totals, he’s not a good defensive player and he was 20 years old in the lower minors, but man I’m a glutton for upside, and he has upside for days. Ortiz slashed .300/.416/.462 with 13 homers, 39 steals, and a 26.0/14.9 K%/BB% in 107 games split between Single-A and High-A. I take it as a great sign that the K rates were much better at High-A to close out the season with a 168 wRC+ and 22.3/13.8 K%/BB% in 30 games. He was a 16th round pick out of community college in 2024, so seeing an adjustment period in his first taste of advanced competition is normal. It’s not just the surface stats though, the underlying numbers jump off the page with a 91.5 MPH EV, 49.3% Hard Hit%, 18 degree launch, and 25% Air Pull%. He’s not fast, but he’s definitely a good base stealer, and we’ve seen plenty of not fast, good base stealers rack up plenty of steals in the majors. He’s also a solid rock at 6’1”, 230 pounds (although that weight looks high to me) with a beastly righty swing. I’m dodging those red flags left and right, because this is such a fun upside fantasy prospect. I’m taking on the extra risk. He’s a great target. He ranked 52nd overall in the Top 91 First Base 2026 Dynasty Baseball Positional Rankings (Patreon). – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 69/24/77/.244/.322/.449/15

8) Quinn Mathews – STL, LHP, 25.6 – I had a bad feeling that Mathews 2024 implosion at Triple-A to end the season shouldn’t have been completely dismissed, writing in his Top 1,000 blurb, “I think it’s easy to completely hand wave Mathews getting bombed at Triple-A to close out the season (6.48 ERA with a 27.8/17.7 K%/BB% in 16.2 IP), but I do think there might be at least a small amount of signal there that we shouldn’t just 100% dismiss.” … and I wasn’t nearly scared away enough, as his 2025 season looked much closer to what he did at Triple-A to close out the year than he what he did at Double-A. He put up a 25.4/17.5 K%/BB% in 94 IP. That is scary bad, and while I’ve been pounding home the point in 2025 that Triple-A is fucking hard, Mathews doesn’t have the big stuff to fall back on either. The fastball sat 93.1 MPH and put up a 18.2% whiff%. It wasn’t a complete disaster as the 3.73 ERA isn’t terrible, and the secondaries (slider/changeup/curve) all missed a ton of bats with the changeup standing out with a 56% whiff% and .208 xwOBA, but this wasn’t nearly the guy we expected coming off the huge 2024 breakout. He simply wasn’t able to keep it up, and he now looks more like a back end starter with mid-rotation upside, which isn’t a very highly valued dynasty asset. Pitching in St. Louis should help and there is nothing but opportunity there, so I wouldn’t completely give up on him, you just need to change expectations. – 2026 Projection: 4/4.38/1.41/79 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.06/1.33/142 in 155 IP

9) Leonardo Bernal – STL, C, 22.2 – Bernal was seemingly having a big breakout as a 21 year old at Double-A with 11 homers and a .937 OPS in his first 47 games, but it proved to be just a hot start. He cratered after that with a .559 OPS in his final 65 games. He finished the year slashing .247/.332/.394 with 13 homers, 13 steals, and a 16.9/10.8 K%/BB% in 107 games. I closed out his Top 1,000 blurb last off-season by writing, “Bernal is a very solid catcher prospect who is probably on the underrated side, although he projects as more of a solid all around hitter rather than a true beast.” … and that evaluation still holds today. He’s a switch hitter and I like his swing a lot from both sides of the plate, but he did much more damage with his righty swing this year (.848 OPS vs. lefties). He also has strong plate skills and is a solid defensive catcher. Ivan Herrera has the hype on the MLB level, but it seems a long shot they will actually give him full time reps at catcher. Rainiel Rodriguez has the hype in the minor league system, but he’s 3 years younger than Bernal and his glove still needs work. Jimmy Crooks is ahead of Bernal on the depth chart at Triple-A, but Crooks looks more like a backup to me after a mediocre at best season. That leaves Bernal as the kinda middle option of all of them, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he were the one that emerged, as least until Rainiel is ready. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 64/17/68/.258/.327/.421/3

10) Jimmy Crooks – STL, C, 24.8 – Crooks could very easily be St. Louis’ main catcher in 2026. Herrera is a major question on defense, Pages is terrible on offense, Bernal is one level behind him on the depth chart, and Rainiel Rodiguez is a few years away. He has a good glove and he was solid at Triple-A with the bat, slashing .274/.337/.441 with 14 homers, a 104 wRC+ and a 26.5/8.4 K%/BB% in 98 games. He doesn’t crush the ball, but he can hit it hard with a 89.7 MPH EV and 42.1% Hard Hit%. The hit tool can so easily tank him though as we see with that AAA K/BB, and then it got exposed even more in the majors with a .133 BA and a 37.0/0.0 K%/BB% in 46 PA. He may be worse than Pages with the bat. That is why I have Bernal as the highest ranked non Rainiel option in the Cards minors, but Crooks could end up being the short term guy to emerge. Long term, it seems like he’s a backup. – 2026 Projection: 18/4/24/.226/.289/.355/0 Prime Projection: 38/10/46/.243/.309/.391/2

Just Missed

11) Ryan Mitchell – STL, SS, 19.2

12) Ixan Henderson – STL, LHP, 24.2

13) Yairo Padilla – STL, SS, 18.9 

14) Jesus Baez – STL, SS/3B, 21.1

15) Nate Dohm – STL, RHP, 23.3

16) Tanner Franklin – STL, RHP, 21.10 

17) Nathan Church – STL, OF, 25.9

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Pittsburgh trades Johan Oviedo, Tyler Samaniego, and Adonys Guzman for Jhostynxon Garcia and Jesus Travieso 

Well, well, well … looks like I’m not only the one who loves Johan Oviedo. In my very first Dynasty Team Report of the off-season on the Brick Wall, I named Oviedo a true sleeper target that I didn’t think would gain a ton of hype as the off-season went along, but it turns out I didn’t have to just worry about other analysts jumping on board, I needed to worry about the Red Sox. They saw what I saw with that new and improved fastball, extension, size and near elite whiff rates. While I can’t be sure they are going to put him in the rotation, I kinda find it hard to believe they target him in this trade if he wasn’t going to be a favorite for a rotation spot. My love for him is even more emboldened by Boston sticking their neck out for him too. Unfortunately, he’s probably not as much of a sleeper anymore. And as for The Password, hell fucking yea. I pleaded with Boston to not make the same mistake the Orioles did and let their depth rot away, and they did the right thing. They freed him, and now it’s a clear runway for him to win an opening day job. That 75 MPH swing in his small sample MLB debut is all you need to know about the offensive upside in here. I won’t lie, the 86.4 MPH EV, 34.6% Hard Hit%, and 34.2% whiff% at Triple-A is quite bad, and it’s also a ballpark downgrade, so I can’t really say he’s some major target now. He gets a bump for sure, but look at those Triple-A underlying numbers one more time. Don’t go too crazy on him. As for real life, I think this is a very fair trade. Oviedo is majorly underrated, Boston had to trade Garcia, and Pitt had a surplus of pitchers and a dearth of hitters. Great trade all around for everyone involved.

Washington trades Jose Ferrer to Seattle for Harry Ford and Isaac Lyon

I was already out on Keibert Ruiz in my catcher rankings, writing, “Ruiz is not a starting MLB catcher. I mean, he is, but he shouldn’t be … Washington desperately needs to acquire at least a decent catcher in trade or free agency.” … and they very smartly did just that. This is an obvious huge boost for Ford’s dynasty value who not only leaves a situation where he was completely blocked, but enters one that is absolutely begging for him to take the job. I’m sure it will be a timeshare to start, and Ford’s potential is more solid across the board than standout, but especially in medium to deeper leagues, Ford becomes a lot more interesting. He already ranked higher than Ruiz for me in the catcher rankings, and this move will have him jumping about 7 spots to sit right under Joe Mack. On the flip side, it looked like Ferrer had a real chance to close in Washington, and that is now done. As for real life, while seemingly an overpay for Seattle on it’s face, I actually think it’s a fair deal. I’ve been a big fan of Ferrer since last off-season, and there is definitely more upside in the tank. 4 years of a very good reliever deserves a good haul, and considering Ford is more of a fringy Top 100 prospect with defense risk, that is a completely reasonable swap. I would have said yes from both sides of the aisle. Seattle had nowhere for him to play.

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Arizona Diamondbacks—Atlanta Braves—Baltimore Orioles—Chicago Cubs (free)—Cincinnati Reds (free)—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Yankees (free)—Pittsburgh Pirates (free)—Sacramento Athletics—Seattle Mariners—Tampa Bay Rays—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

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Hitters

Jordan Walker STL, OF, 21.10 – The vibe seems to be that Jordan Walker was a bust, or at least a disappointment, but in my book, his value took a jump in 2023. He was a 20/21 year old in the majors who put up a well above average 116 wRC+ in 117 games. He hit the ball hard with an 89.4 MPH EV, he had plus speed with a 28.6 ft/sec sprint, he had an average plate approach with a 22.4%/8.0% K%/BB%, and all the hand wringing over his launch angle early in the season proved to be unfounded with a solid 10.2 degree launch. We can’t expect every prospect to immediately put up MVP numbers when we demand they get called up as 19/20/21 year olds. Being an above average MLB hitter at Walker’s age is extremely, extremely impressive, and for me, it puts him right on track to become the beast we all thought he would be last off-season. He ranked 35th on A Top 275 Sneak Peek of the 2024 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). 2024 Projection: 87/26/85/.271/.340/.469/15 Prime Projection: 98/31/102/.279/.356/.513/17

Nolan Gorman STL, 2B, 23.11 – Gorman’s swing and miss is in the danger zone with a 31.9% K% and 35.5% whiff%, and it made him an extremely streaky player in 2023. He alternated between red hot and ice cold, but it all added up to a classic low BA slugger type season, slashing .236/.328/.478 with 27 homers, 7 steals, and a 31.9%/11.4% K%/BB% in 119 games. He’s not a good defensive player, but St. Louis seems committed to getting his bat in the lineup, and looking up and down their organization, he’s one of their few young sluggers, so I’m not too worried about playing time long term. He also hits lefties well with a .840 OPS in 2023, so that shouldn’t be a major issue either. If his hit tool takes a step forward, he can be one of the best power hitters in the game, and even if it doesn’t, a 91 MPH EV, 22.2 degree launch, and 16.5% Barrel% ensures he will be an impact fantasy player no matter what. 2024 Projection: 77/33/90/.242/.331/.490/7

Pitchers

Lance Lynn STL, RHP, 36.11 – If the Dodgers couldn’t magically turn Lynn around, what hope do the rest of the mere mortals have? St. Louis is willing to give it a shot for a cool $11 million, but I wouldn’t even spend $11 of fake auction money on him. He had a 5.73 ERA (4.83 xERA) with a 5 year worst 23.6%/8.3% K%/BB% in 183.2 IP. His velocity is on a 5 year decline with it tanking to 92.6 MPH, and his 10.4% Barrel% is a career worst by far. Like I mentioned above, the Dodgers tried to work their magic, and while they did manage to bring his ERA down to 4.36 in 64 IP, they needed to kill his strikeout rate to do it with a 17.2% K%. He’ll be 37 years old about one month into the 2024 season, and his decline couldn’t be more clear cut, starting in 2022 and really hitting it’s stride in 2023. I do expect him to bounce back somewhat from his disaster season, and St. Louis is building a nursing home rotation of old, low velocity, pitch to contact pitchers, so maybe he can learn a thing or two about how to survive in your decline years, but his days of being a truly impact fantasy starter seem over. 2024 Projection: 10/4.27/1.31/158 in 165 IP

Sonny Gray STL, RHP, 34.5 – In Spring Training, Gray blamed his injury filled 2022 on not being prepared for the season due to the lockout, and he clearly wasn’t BS’ing with him throwing an 8 year high 184 IP in 2023. He put up a pitching line of 2.79/1.15/24.5%/7.3%. His whiff% bounced back in a major way with a 4.1 percentage point increase to 26%, and his velocity ticked back up 0.8 MPH to 92.9 MPH. St. Louis is clearly betting on him being able to keep it up as he enters his mid 30’s with a 3 year, $75 million contract, and I’m inclined to agree with them. 2024 Projection: 12/3.54/1.19/167 in 170 IP

Bullpen

Ryan Helsley STL, Closer, 29.9 – Helsley seems in line for the full time closer role in 2024, but the Cards always like to sneak Giovanny Gallegos in there too, so I would expect Gallegos to steal a few saves here and there. It won’t matter though, because Helsley is dominant enough to overcome a handful of saves shaved off the top with a 2.46 ERA and 35.6%/11.6% K%/BB% in 36.2 IP. He throws a 99.7 MPH fastball to go along with an elite slider (52.2% whiff%) and elite curve (.144 xwOBA). His control is spotty, but plenty of relievers thrive with similar control issues, and a forearm strain knocked him out almost 3 months mid-season, but he looked healthy when he returned. He’s not without risk, but the elite upside is worth it. 2024 Projection: 4/2.65/1.09/83/30 saves in 60 IP

St. Louis Cardinals Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects

1) Masyn Winn STL, SS, 22.0 – Winn’s 29 wRC+ in his 137 PA MLB Debut was the 4th worst mark in the league (130 PA min). If you want to look on the bright side, it could have been worse. He could have been Cam Gallagher with a negative 17. Winn earned that terrible wRC+ by hitting the ball very weakly with only 2 barrels in 101 batted balls, but surprisingly, nothing actually looks too concerning to me in the underlying numbers. An 86/91 MPH AVG/FB EV is honestly not that terrible of a starting point for a relatively skinny 21 year old, and his 87.6 MPH EV in the minors clearly shows he has the juice for more. He showed double plus speed with a 29.2 ft/sec sprint, he got the bat on the ball with a 19%/7.3% K%/BB%, and he didn’t have any groundball issues with a 12.8 degree launch. He also got unlucky with a .196 BABIP and a .211 wOBA vs. .250 xwOBA, so the bad debut looked worse than it actually was. We saw plenty of players with a similar profile thrive in 2023, and I want to stress again, his EV numbers really aren’t in the true danger zone. Everything the Cardinals brass has said this off-season leads me to believe Winn is locked in as their Opening Day starting SS. All signs point towards him being much much better in 2024. 2024 Projection: 72/13/59/.241/.309/.388/21 Prime Projection: 83/17/64/.268/.330/.421/28

2) Thomas Saggese STL, 2B/3B, 22.0 – Saggese broke out in 2022, but many, including me, stayed skeptical because he’s not a big tools guy and the K%/plate approach weren’t particularly great, but some guys are just ballers, and Saggese balled out even harder in 2023. He slashed .306/.374/.530 with 26 homers, 12 steals, and a 22.9%/8.3% K%/BB% in 139 games at mostly Double-A. The same drawbacks that made me hesitant in 2022 are still present. His raw power is only average to potentially above average, he’s not fast, the plate approach isn’t great, and he’s not a big guy at 5’11”. But at some point, it’s silly to keep doubting a guy who is producing to this level. He’s obviously doing something right. He doesn’t have a clear path to playing time and I would still hesitate to put big upside on him, but I’m willing to bet on him being a very good MLB hitter at peak. 2024 Projection: 18/5/23/.249/.308/.416/2 Prime Projection: 75/24/82/.266/.328/.444/8

3) Victor Scott STL, OF, 23.2 – “Scott and the Case of the Missing Stolen Base.” If you look at Fangraphs, Scott led the entire minor leagues with 95 steals. Chandler Simpson was 2nd at 94 and Jonatan Clase was 3rd at 79. But if you look at Baseball Reference and MiLB.com, Scott only tied for 1st with 94 steals. Hmmmm … we need to hire a private dick to investigate the missing stolen base and then turn it into a 30 for 30 documentary. Then we can hire another private dick to figure out why private detectives are called private dicks. As you can clearly see, Scott has double plus speed and elite base stealing ability. He also has a good feel to hit with above average contact rates. He started the year at High-A with a 117 wRC+ in 66 games, and then he proved the skills will transfer to the upper minors, slashing .323/.373/.450 with 7 homers, 45 steals, and a 14.5%/5.8% K%/BB% in 66 games. The power is below average and he had relatively high K rates in college, so there’s definitely a chance he is an Estuery Ruiz like one trick pony, but like Ruiz, that one trick is so elite he can still be an impact fantasy player. Unlike Ruiz, he’s actually in a real organization where he won’t just be handed playing time. It seems likely that he will break into the bigs as a speedy 4th outfielder, and then have to earn more playing time from there. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/14/54/.262/.322/.398/52

4) Tink Hence STL, RHP, 21.8 – Hence finally met his match when he made it to Double-A with a 5.47 ERA and 22.2%/9.2% K%/BB% in 54.1 IP. It’s not great to see the production back up so much in the upper minors, but he was very young for the level, and he was blowing past his career high IP (96 IP). He also pitched very well at High-A with a 2.81 ERA and 27.9%/7.3% K%/BB%, and most importantly, he still looks absolutely electric on the mound. The delivery is extremely athletic, the mid to upper 90’s fastball explodes out of his hand, and the change, slider and curve all have plus potential. He doesn’t have prototypical starter size, but I think that is overblown in his case. He still screams ace upside to me, and I would take advantage of the hit to his value in 2023. Pitcher development is especially non linear. I expect him to have a big year in 2024. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 13/3.55/1.18/181 in 168 IP

5) Tekoah Roby STL, RHP, 22.6 – Roby is getting a ton of helium this off-season, and while I most certainly like him, my money is still on Hence as the best pitching prospect in this system. Roby put up a 4.63 ERA with a 28.9%/6.3% K%/BB% in 58.1 IP at Double-A. He missed almost 3 months of the season with a shoulder injury, but he looked like fire when he returned, and he also impressed in the AFL despite a 5.93 ERA in 13.2 IP. The stuff backs up the production with a mid 90’s fastball, plus curve, and a potentially above average slider and change. He strikes me as a strong mid rotation type rather than a top of the rotation starter, and I think his relatively high home run rates and ERA bears that out. 2024 Projection: 2/4.28/1.33/48 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.86/1.24/175  in 170 IP

6) Chase Davis STL, OF, 22.4 – Selected 21st overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Davis went full Jacob Berry on us in his pro debut, and we saw Berry go from bad to worse in 2023. Davis’ pro debut was actually even worse than Berry’s with 0 homers, a 26% K% and .212 BA in 36 games at Single-A. It was good for a below average 91 wRC+ (Berry had a 118 wRC+). The most concerning thing was the lack of power with an 84.9 MPH EV. He also struggled to hit for power in the wood bat Cape Cod League in 2022 with 0 homers and a .629 OPS in 15 games. Those are scary numbers for a guy you are drafting for basically only his power. If you don’t want to put so much weight on the pro debut, Davis had a damn exciting junior year that got everyone excited going into the draft. He was a lefty power hitting beast who is a smooth operator in the box. I can honestly watch him crush homers all day. He cracked 21 homers in 57 Pac12 games this year. He’s not a particularly huge guy at 6’1”, but he’s a muscled up 216 pounds and the EV’s were legit in college. The swing is also very athletic, and he improved his hit tool this year (.362 BA with a 40/43 K/BB) after struggling with swing and miss in the past, but the struggles in pro ball show he still has a long way to go there too. I understand if you want to put more weight on the larger sample college production, but that would have been a mistake with Jacob Berry, and Davis seems to be headed down that same path. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 72/22/78/.242/.321/.437/7

7) Ivan Herrera STL, C, 23.10 – Herrera would rank higher on this list if he wasn’t blocked by Willson Contreras (under contract through 2027 at least), and I don’t think St. Louis will be particularly interested in trading him because depth is important and Contreras is getting up there in age. He dominated Triple-A, slashing .297/.451/.500 with 10 homers, 11 steals, and a 20.5%/20% K%/BB% in 83 games, and then he performed well in his cup of coffee in the majors with a 122 wRC+ and 91.3/100.4 MPH AVG/FB EV in 44 PA. He has the ability to be a complete hitter with an average to above average hit/power combo, but he might not get a full time job until 2028 barring trade (Contreras might be the more likely one to get traded) or injury. 2024 Projection: 23/4/18/.251/.328/.403/2 Prime Projection: 72/19/66/.268/.343/.432/6

8) Cooper Hjerpe STL, LHP, 23.0 – Hjerpe’s velocity did not tick up this year like many hoped with him sitting in the high 80’s to low 90’s. He has the type of hjerpe jerky, sidearm lefty delivery to make it work, but that is still dangerously low. He also didn’t have the most impressive pro debut from a statistical or injury standpoint. He put up a 3.51 ERA with a 29.8%/14.6% K%/BB% in 41 IP and missed 4 months of the season after undergoing surgery to get loose bodies removed from his elbow. Low velocity, poor control, and injury risk is not the 3 headed monster you are looking for. At this point, a #4 starter seems like a reasonable upside projection for him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/4.17/1.31/163 in 160 IP

9) Travis Honeyman STL, OF, 22.6 – Selected 90th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, the 6’2”, 190 pound Honeyman makes a ton of contact, hits the ball fairly hard, and has above average speed. That is a strong combination of skills, and it led to an excellent season in the ACC, slashing .304/.383/.534 with 6 homers, 10 steals, and a 11.5% 7.1% K%/BB% in 39 games. He’s never been a big home run hitter in college, but his frame definitely has room to add power, and he also hit 4 homers with a .930 OPS in 24 games in the wood bat Cape Cod League in 2022. I like Honeyman a lot, and he ranked 71st overall on the 2024 Top 130 First Year Player Draft Rankings. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/18/73/.264/.321/.422/17

10) Leonardo Bernal STL, C, 20.2 – Bernal’s game power is going to have to tick up to become an impact fantasy catcher with only 3 homers and a 28.9% FB% in 78 games at Single-A. He’s already pretty thick, so he’s going to have to make adjustments to unlock that power rather than it coming naturally with more strength. Everything else is there though with an advanced plate approach (17%/15.2% K%/BB%) and a potentially good glove behind the dish. I trust St. Louis to develop hitters like him, so he’s in a perfect organization. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 66/14/59/.267/.338/.412/3

Just Missed

11) Gordon Graceffo STL, RHP, 24.0

12) Zack Showalter STL, RHP, 20.2

13) Won-Bin Cho STL, OF, 20.7

14) Zach Levenson STL, OF, 22.1 

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Cincinnati signs Frankie Montas to a 1 year, $16 million contract

The Reds are my favorite team headed into 2024, and they are doing everything right this off-season. Montas is a great upside bet to make, and they already signed a safer arm in Nick Martinez earlier in the off-season. They are my favorite win total O/U bet on the MLB slate. I locked them in at over 80 wins when the lines came out one month ago and it has already increased to 82.5 (I told you guys back in October in the Reds Team Report that ” I’m salivating at what “Vegas” is going to set the Cincinnati Reds win total O/U at,” so I hope you got in early too). I still like them at over 82.5, and I like their +4000 World Series odds on Draft Kings a lot as well. The one problem is that with these signings, they might be apt to just hold onto their talented infield depth. Depth is extremely important for real life, and while it gives me yet another reason to love them in real life, it is a thorn in our fantasy sides. It sure feels like the odds of them making a trade has gone down, although I’m sure they are still listening in on offers. Regardless, India and CES owners need to start planning on them possibly not getting full time at bats.

Atlanta trades Vaughn Grissom to Boston for Chris Sale and $17 million 

Boston isn’t going to target Grissom in a 1 for 1 Chris Sale trade if they don’t have every intention of handing him the starting 2B job. This is a boon for Grissom’s dynasty value as he was stuck in no man’s land with Atlanta. Any value Emmanuel Valdez had is now gone, and Marcelo Mayer’s path to playing time gets a bit more complicated as well, but I wouldn’t get too hung up on that if you are a Mayer owner. As for Grissom, he’s a safety over upside bat with a plus hit tool and moderate power/speed combo. He should be a doubles machine in Fenway, wearing out the Green Monster. He just ranked 65th overall on my Top 161 Shortstop Dynasty Rankings (Patreon), but with this trade, I would fly him up the rankings to top 40 status. Sale’s value doesn’t change. He remains a reasonably priced target for a win now team.

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Hitters

Lars Nootbaar STL, OF, 25.7 – A Nootbaar is like one of the those healthy, organic, 90% cocoa dark chocolate bars. It’s an adult snack that is heart healthy. It has an excellent plate approach (20.5%/14.7% K%/BB%), hits the ball hard (91.7 MPH EV), and is fast (28.2 ft/sec sprint). It’s a sensible snack that fits into a healthy diet. But it lacks that flair factor. It’s got no caramel, no peanut butter, no nuts, no nougat. It has a line drive approach (10.7 degree launch) and it’s never been a big base stealer, so you can’t expect big homer and steal totals. You’re not getting that flavor explosion. “Everything in moderation, even moderation,” is possibly the most important words to live by, and it applies here. A team full of Nootbaar’s will be boring, but he can be the perfect piece to fit into a more high risk, high reward lineup. 2023 Projection: 79/20/74/.258/.351/.454/8

Tyler O’Neill STL, OF, 27.10 – O’Neill wasn’t able to back up his 2021 breakout with a .700 OPS in 96 games battling a variety of injuries throughout the year, but I only look at it as a buying opportunity. He matured at the plate with a career best 26.9% K% and career best 9.9% BB%. His .331 xwOBA was much better than his .307 wOBA. The power/speed combo was still beastly with a 96.1 MPH FB/LD EV and 29.8 ft/sec sprint. He’s setting up for a monster 2023 and there is now a buying opportunity you should jump all over. 2023 Projection: 81/29/89/.254/.326/.492/18

Juan Yepez STL, 1B/OF, 25.1 – Yepez has a defense problem, which might not be as big of a deal on another team, but with Goldy locked in at 1B and St. Louis’ prowess in developing underrated hitters (and property rated hitters too), it’s a big deal. He put up a 109 wRC+ on the back of his contact/power profile, but his negative 9.8 defensive value made him a 0.1 WAR player in 76 games. His contact/power combo also isn’t quite huge enough to really force St. Louis’ hand with an average 22.3% K% and below average 86.5 MPH EV (the 93.6 MPH FB/LD EV is above average). His 5.8% BB% led to a .296 OBP, which is really unacceptable for a bat only player. Yepez has Gorman, Jordan Walker, and Alec Burleson all nipping on his heels for at bats. You simply can’t trust he has a full time job, and it seems very likely that he doesn’t. 2023 Projection: 51/19/57/.248/.309/.460/0

Starting Pitchers

 Jack Flaherty STL, RHP, 27.6 – Don’t get pulled in on the name value. A shoulder injury completely wrecked Flaherty’s season, limiting him to 36 IP, and nothing looked resolved when he returned in September. His control was completely gone with a 13.2% BB% and his whiff% hit a career low 25.5%. You can say you are buying the track record and giving him a pass, but he’s been bad for years now with a 5.03 xERA in 2020, 4.89 xERA in 2021, and 4.94 xERA in 2022. His stuff was mostly back and he still induced weak contact, so I don’t think he he is a complete lost cause, but his injury and performance risk would prevent me from acquiring him at anything other than a sweet heart price. 2023 Projection: 8/3.98/1.28/140 in 140 IP

Jordan Montgomery STL, LHP, 29.9 – Montgomery credited his extra success with St. Louis (3.11 ERA vs. 3.69 ERA in NY) on their trust in letting him throw his 4-seamer more, but considering he was starting to fall apart a bit at the end of the season (4.97 ERA in final 38 IP), I’m leaning towards it just being small sample variation. He’s a damn good pitcher no matter how you slice it with 2 bat missing secondaries in his curveball (41.4% whiff%) and changeup (41% whiff%), to go along with plus control of the entire 5 pitch arsenal (5% BB%). If he feels more comfortable going to the 4-seamer more, it didn’t seem to hurt him at the very least. 2023 Projection: 11/3.56/1.18/160 in 170 IP

Bullpen

Ryan Helsley STL, Closer, 28.9 – Helsley doesn’t have the name value or the track record, but that is all that is holding him back from being a legitimate option for first closer off the board. He put up a 1.25 ERA with a 39.3%/8.4% K%/BB% in 64.2 IP. He throws a 99.6 MPH fastball with a slider that put up a 53.5% whiff% and a curve that had a .071 xwOBA. Losing his control is the only thing that could stop him. 2023 Projection: 4/2.67/1.02/90/30 saves in 62 IP

Top 10 St. Louis Cardinals Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Jordan Walker STL, 3B/OF, 20.11 – Nobody smashes the ball as hard as the 6’5”, 220 pound Walker. One thing we don’t have to worry about is him getting to the majors and putting up like an 84 MPH EV. He’s gonna hit it hard. He was a 20 year old at Double-A and ripped 19 homers with 31 doubles in 119 games, good for a 128 wRC+. He then wrecked the AFL with 5 homers, 6 doubles, and a .925 OPS in 21 games. He has some swing and miss in his game, but it’s far from the danger zone with a 21.6%/10.8% K%/BB%, and he has plus speed with 22 steals, although considering his size, you might not want to count on him majorly in that category. He started to transition to the OF, which gives him a path to playing time with Arenado locked in at 3B. 2023 Projection: 42/12/47/.251/.326/.461/7 Prime Projection: 92/33/105/.267/.346/.513/12

2) Tink Hence STL, RHP, 20.8 – Say hello to the 2024 top pitching prospect in baseball. Hence was treated with kid gloves in 2022, never going over 4 IP, but he checked literally every other box. His stuff is straight filthy with 4 potentially plus pitches (mid 90’s fastball, curve, slider, change), he has an extremely athletic delivery with insane arm speed that reminds me a bit of Pedro Martinez, and his numbers were lights out with a pitching line of 2.16/0.96/81/15 in 52.1 IP at Single-A. He’s certainly getting plenty of hype right now, but it’s going to look like nothing compared to the hype explosion that’s coming in 2023. I was just able to nab him at 44th overall in the Toolshed Prospect Mock with other prospect writers/podcasters, so I think his price could still be relatively reasonable this off-season. He’s a buy high. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 14/3.29/1.09/205 in 180 IP

3) Masyn Winn STL, SS, 21.0 – The risk with Winn is that he just doesn’t hit the ball hard enough, and while he has a good hit tool, a 20.1% K% isn’t close to elite. If he puts up an 86 MPH EV with a 25% K% in his MLB debut it wouldn’t be all that surprising. A CJ Abrams situation could be on the horizon where his price takes a drop after his debut. Power is often the last tool to come with prospects though, so you don’t want to dismiss plus hit/speed combos who don’t have big power at 20 years old. This could be a mid 20’s breakout scenario rather than a guy who steps into the bigs and immediately sets the world on fire. An Andres Gimenez type come up would be the optimal path. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 81/15/63/.270/.333/.421/24

4) Alec Burleson STL, OF, 24.4 – Burleson is a St. Louis special. An underrated hitter who has quietly been raking forever. St. Louis’ ability to produce these types of prospects is likely a combo of superior scouting and superior development. He put up a 137 wRC+ with 20 homers and a 14.3% K% in 109 games at Triple-A. He made his MLB debut and while the surface stats didn’t look good with a .535 OPS in 53 PA, the underlying numbers looked good with a 91.7 MPH EV, 17.9%/9.4% K%/BB%, and .322 xwOBA. The upside might not be huge with a line drive approach, and he’ll have to scratch and claw for playing time, but I’m pretty confident in saying this guy is going to be a legit MLB hitter. 2023 Projection: 29/9/33/.262/.311/.430/1 Prime Projection: 76/23/81/.277/.330/.451/2

5) Cooper Hjerpe STL, LHP, 21.7 – Selected 22nd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Hjerpe is a classic Cardinals pick of a rock solid, safe starter who might be better in real life than fantasy. I say “might be,” because he has that funky lefty delivery that I am an absolute sucker for, but I’m also staying conservative on his ranking because the stuff says more 3/4 type starter with a low 90’s fastball, and I’m concerned more advanced hitters won’t be quite as thrown off by the delivery. Regardless, he dominated the Pac12 with a 2.53 ERA and 161/23 K/BB in 103.1 IP, and he’s in a great developmental organization. If you play in a deep league or league where good real life pitchers get bumps, I can definitely see targeting Hjerpe. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 12/3.87/1.24/ 172 in 172 IP

6) Gordon Graceffo STL, RHP, 23.0 – Graceffo has big stuff with a fastball he can get into the upper 90’s, and he has plus control with a 6.3% BB% at Double-A, but the strikeout numbers leave something to be desired. He put up a pitching line of 3.94/1.07/83/24 in 93.2 IP at Double-A. It was good for a 4.63 xFIP. He didn’t put up big K numbers in college either, although he was able to destroy High-A with a 33.9% K% in 45.2 IP, so there could be more in the tank. He’s a big dude at 6’4”, 210 pounds with a herky jerky righty delivery that doesn’t exactly scream upside. He strikes me as a #4 type starter who could play up with St. Louis’ excellent defense behind him. 2023 Projection: 1/4.38/1.31/12 in 15 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.94/1.24/161 in 175 IP

7) Joshua Baez STL, OF, 19.9 – The 6’4”, 220 pound Baez has big time power with big time strikeout issues. He hit 3 homers with a 170 wRC+ in 20 games at Single-A, but it came with a 38% K%. He had a 32.6% in 12 games at rookie ball too. He’s not just a hulking slugger, he’s a good athlete with some speed, stealing 10 bags in 32 games. He’ll still be firmly 19 years old when the 2023 starts, which is a similar age to the incoming rookie class, so he’s ahead of the game. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/25/82/.242/.324/.472/8

8) Matthew Liberatore STL, LHP, 23.5 – Liberatore managed to get worse his 2nd run through Triple-A. He put up a 4.04 ERA in 124.2 IP in 2021, and then a 5.17 ERA in 115 IP in 2022. His MLB debut didn’t go much better with a 5.97 ERA and 17.4%/11.2% K%/BB% in 34.2 IP. The numbers don’t look great, but he has the stuff and repertoire to be a mid to back end starter. He throws a 5 pitch mix led by a beautiful plus curveball that is a plus pitch, putting up a .259 xwOBA and 35.2% whiff%. He combines that with a 93.7 MPH fastball that is his most used pitch, a 92.8 MPH sinker that was not effective at inducing grounders (14 degree launch), a 85.9 MPH changeup that got destroyed, and a 86 MPH slider that is his least used pitch but was excellent when he went to it (.176 xwOBA). Even watching him in the minors I thought it was clear he has to go to his curve more (and slider more too). He’s not a finished product, but the ingredients are there for him to turn into a solid MLB starter if he can find the right pitch mix. 2023 Projection: 3/4.41/1.36/71 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 10/4.12/1.29/158 in 170 IP

9) Jonathan Mejia STL, SS, 18.0 – The switch hitting Mejia cracked my 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings at #999, and he proved he deserved to be on the list with a strong pro debut in the DSL, slashing .267/.418/.479 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 23.1%/15.9% K%/BB% in 45 games. It was good for a 145 wRC+. He’s not the type who is likely to explode to elite prospect status, but there is potential for an above average hit/power combo at peak. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 75/21/78/.268/.331/.444/6

10) Ivan Herrera STL, C, 22.10 – Contreras’ signing with St. Louis makes Herrera a back up for the foreseeable future. He hit 6 homers with a 50.8% GB% in 65 games at Triple-A and then put up a 85.2 MPH EV with 0 barrels in 22 PA in his MLB debut. He has a strong plate approach with above average contact rates and plus walk rates throughout his minor league career, so while he could be a solid real life hitter, he’s not a fantasy target. 2023 Projection: 6/1/8/.242/.308/.388/0 Prime Projection: 61/16/65/.265/.337/.421/2

11) Moises Gomez STL, OF, 24.7 – It’s hard to ignore a guy who cranked 39 homers in the upper minors and was more or less age appropriate for the levels, but a 34.7% K% is equally hard to ignore. Gomez is a corner OF bat without a clear path to playing time and major hit tool risk. The huge power season puts him back on the map, but he’s trending towards a bench power bat. 2023 Projection: 9/3/11/.211/.290/.417/1 Prime Projection: 42/15/47/.226/.305/.437/3

12) Michael McGreevy STL, RHP, 22.9 – McGreevy is the classic arm who holds more value in very deep leagues. He doesn’t have big stuff with a low 90’s fastball, and he isn’t a strikeout pitcher with a measly 18.4% K% in 99 IP at Double-A. It led to a 4.64 ERA. He’s a back end starter. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 9/4.21/1.32/140 in 165 IP

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

I have some thoughts on a few recent signings:

Noah Syndergaard signs with the Dodgers for 1 year, $13 million – This one almost feels too easy. Like we’re falling into a trap. Thor is a shell of his former self, but he accepted that reality and was barely throwing his 4-seamer by the end of the season. He has the skills to transition into more of a finesse pitcher with plus control over a 5 pitch mix, and he still throws respectably hard with a 93.6 MPH sinker and 94.1 MPH 4-seamer. If anybody can unlock every drop of upside left in this tank, it’s the Dodgers. I don’t think he’s all of a sudden going to turn into a strikeout machine with them, but I’m expecting strong ratios and wins. I’m buying back in as a Top 200 ish dynasty asset.

Carlos Correa signs with SF for 13 years, $350 million – I was already fading Correa’s boring fantasy profile, and with his move to San Francisco, I’m even further off him. SF has the 2nd worst park in the league for righty homers, and while it plays around neutral in general, homers are king for fantasy. I’m not seeing a path to fantasy upside. He ranked 120th on my Top 150 Sneak Peek of the Top 1,000 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings.

Carlos Rodon signs with the Yanks for 6 years, $162 million – Rodon is the type of elite starter where you don’t sweat the small stuff. He gets a ballpark and stress downgrade signing with the Yanks, but elite stuff conquers all. There is still injury risk, but obviously the Yanks felt comfortable enough with him to give him a 6 year deal. The move to NY doesn’t change his value for me in either direction.

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Hitters

Tyler O’Neill STL, OF, 26.9 – Who needs a good plate approach anyway? O’Neill is just a power/speed glutton, smashing 34 homers with a 93 MPH EV, and stealing 15 bags with a 29.7 ft/s sprint speed. There is tons of risk with a 31.3%/7.1% K%/BB% and 34.7% whiff%, but you can’t rule out improvement there with only 892 MLB AB under his belt. The BA is certainly coming down, but the power/speed combo is elite, and I’m willing to take on the risk for that upside 2022 Projection: 85/32/86/.263/.337/.510/13

Dylan Carlson STL, OF, 23.5 – Carlson is basically the anti Tyler O’Neill, putting together a yawner of a year, but sometimes boring can be good. He put up a 113 wRC+ in his rookie year which is quite good, he showed a mature plate approach with a 24.6%/9.2% K%/BB%, and he showed the ability to lift the ball with a 15.1 degree launch angle. He also popped off in his final 16 games with 5 homers and a 1.157 OPS to show what could be in store for the future. Carlson is a major buy this off-season. 2022 Projection: 89/23/79/.273/.350/.468/5

Starting Pitching

 Jack Flaherty STL, RHP, 26.6 – I’m starting to grow a bit concerned with Flaherty. He put up a 5.07 xERA in 2020 and a 4.83 xERA in 2021. He missed time with an oblique strain earlier in the year and then with a shoulder strain later in the year, and his velocity was down a bit when he returned from those injuries. I guess you can look at this as a buying opportunity, but I would be hesitant to buy at name value price right now. If you can get a discount, then by all means. 2022 Projection: 10/3.83/1.18/181 in 168 IP

Adam Wainwright STL, RHP, 40.7 – Wainwright is a reminder that age can be such a dominating factor for dynasty owners, that older players can consistently get undervalued. He was a major reason why the eventual champion in my 12 team QS Dynasty League pulled away from the pack in the 2nd half of the season after I stupidly turned down multiple opportunities to trade for him myself before the deadline (I snuck into 2nd place on the final day of the season). He’s outperformed his xERA, xFIP, and FIP for the last 3 years, so I’m not exactly going after him, but I’m not going to completely dismiss him either. 2022 Projection: 11/3.95/1.27/156 in 175 IP

Bullpen

Alex Reyes STL, RHP, 27.7 – Reyes rightfully lost the closer job to Gallegos late in the year, and now has his eye on a rotation spot for 2022. He certainly has the arsenal to do it with a 5 pitch mix headlined by a 96.6 MPH 4-seamer and an elite slider, but his control is truly atrocious with a 16.4% BB%. He’s the ultimate high risk/high reward pitcher. If he improves his control, there is legitimate ace upside, but there is also a really good chance he ends up a high WHIP middle reliever. I’m prone to lean upside in fantasy, so I’ll definitely be willing to “overpay” by a few bucks (or a few rounds) in leagues where he is available this off-season. 2022 Projection: 7/3.89/1.34/130 in 115 IP

St. Louis Cardinals Top 10 Dynasty Prospects

1) Nolan Gorman STL, 3B/2B, 21.11 – Gorman’s hit tool took a huge step forward this year. He brought his K% down to 22% in the upper levels of the minors (29.7% in 2019), and he didn’t sacrifice much power with 25 homers in 119 games (and he’s already knocked one out in 3 games in the Arizona Fall League). The ingredients are there for him to become a complete middle of the order masher. 2022 Projection: 38/12/36/.248/.312/.445/2 Prime Projection: 83/28/90/.266/.339/.491/4

2) Jordan Walker STL, 3B, 19.10 – Walker has huge raw power at 6’5”, 220 pounds, and he got to a lot of it in his pro debut with 25 doubles, 4 triples, and 14 homers in 82 games split between Single-A and High-A. He’s also a good athlete for his size as he snagged 14 bags. While his plate approach regressed at High-A (27%/6.1% K%/BB%), it looked more advanced than expected at the age appropriate Single-A (17.2%/14.8% K%/BB%). He’s far from a finished product, but there is star upside. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 86/29/93/.262/.344/.502/8

3) Juan Yepez STL, 1B/3B/OF, 24.0 – Yepez completely destroyed the upper levels of the minors, slashing .286/.383/.586 with 27 homers and a 18.9%/11.8% K%/BB% in 111 games at mostly Triple-A. He carried that right over to the Arizona Fall League, going 3 for 10 with a homer, double, and 2/1 K/BB in 3 games. He’s always made solid contact throughout his minor league career and was showing seeds of a power breakout in 2019 before exploding in 2021. He’s not great on defense and he doesn’t exactly have a position, but you can’t ignore those offensive numbers. 2022 Projection: 21/5/25/.241/.303/.434/1 Prime Projection: 73/24/81/.258/.325/.470/3

4) Matthew Liberatore STL, LHP, 22.5 – Liberatore was given an aggressive assignment, jumping straight from Single-A in 2019 to Triple-A in 2021. He was a bit up and down in the first half, but he finished the season strong with a 2.55 ERA and 53/14 K/BB in his final 53 IP, which is a great sign. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but he has plus command of a 4 pitch mix and he knows how to pitch. 2022 Projection: 4/4.37/1.32/73 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.91/1.22/182 in 190 IP

5) Masyn Winn STL, SS/RHP, 20.0 – Winn might actually have a shot at being a two way player as he has explosive tools as both a pitcher and hitter. At the very least it gives him a legitimate back up plan if he can’t make enough of an impact at the plate. As for his hitting, he didn’t show much power in his pro debut with only 5 homers in 97 games split between Single-A and High-A, but there is more power coming down the line, and he had the wheels working with 32 steals in 37 attempts (obligatory disclaimer: rule changes made stealing bases easier at Single-A and High-A). He put up a 112 wRC+ in 61 games at Single-A before struggling at High-A with a 48 wRC+ in 36 games. As a pitcher, St. Louis gave him one inning towards the end of the season to show his stuff, and he impressed with a mid 90’s fastball and a nasty breaking ball. He pitched a clean inning with one K. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 77/15/62/.261/.320/.415/17 – 2/3.95/1.31/36 in 30 IP

6) Joshua Baez STL, OF, 18.9 – Drafted 54th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Baez was one of the youngest players in the draft and has one of the best power projections, notching a 102 MPH exit velocity at a Perfect Game event. He’s also relatively fast with a 6.67 60 yard dash time, showing he is not just a lumbering slugger. He doesn’t project for major strikeout issues, but there is some swing and miss to his game. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/25/84/.253/.336/.473/8

7) Ivan Herrera STL, C, 21.10 – Power broke out with 17 homers in 98 games at Double-A (played 1 game at Triple-A), and the plate approach remained strong with a 22%/13.7% K%/BB%. He’s not going to be a league winner, but he should be in the top 12 catcher conversation at peak. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection:  69/20/73/.271/.342/.448/2

8) Alec Burleson STL, OF, 23.4 – Burleson was drafted 70th overall in 2020 on the back of his strong hit tool, but there was definitely more power in the tank at 6’2”, 212 pounds. That power was unleashed in 2021 as he cracked 22 homers in 119 games split between 3 levels (A+/AA/AAA). He didn’t sacrifice his hit tool to get to it either as he put up a 20.1%/8.3% K%/BB%. The ceiling might not be huge, but he has a chance to be a damn good overall hitter. 2022 Projection: 8/2/11/.245/.300/.410/0 Prime Projection: 68/20/75/.273/.330/.453/2

9) Michael McGreevy STL, RHP, 21.9 – Drafted 18th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, McGreevy is a control artist who had a 1.5 BB/9 in his college career over 189.1 IP. The stuff isn’t huge with a low 90’s sinker and 3 secondaries (curve-best secondary, slider, change), but he’s young for his class and there could be more in the tank. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.18/1.26/158 in 170 IP

10) Lars Nootbaar STL, OF, 24.7 – Tink Hence was originally in this #10 spot, but Nootbaar’s AFL performance made me rethink that. He’s going bonkers in Arizona, slashing .314/.437/.643 with 5 homers and a 15/14 K/BB in 18 games. He held his own in his MLB debut with a 101 wRC+, an above average 89.1 MPH exit velocity and an advanced plate approach (22.6%/10/5% K%/BB%). He’s never stolen many bases, but he does have speed with a 28.4 ft/sec sprint speed. I’m worried he’s only a part time player, which is why I didn’t have him in the top 10 to begin with, but he deserves to crack this list. 2022 Projection: 41/10/38/.258/.327/.420/2 Prime Projection: 74/19/68/.272/.338/.448/4

11) Tink Hence STL, RHP, 19.8 – Hence was the 63rd overall pick in the 2020 Draft. He shows good control of a fastball that can reach 96 MPH, to go along with a plus slider and developing changeup. He has an easy delivery with lightening quick arm speed. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.12/1.28/167 in 160 IP

Just Missed

12) Luken Baker STL, 1B, 25.1

13) Brendan Donovan STL, 3B/2B, 25.2 

14) Zack Thompson STL, LHP, 24.5 

Strategy

St. Louis is known for their keen eye on drafting underrated hitters and their top notch ability to develop them. They do such a good job of it that there always seems to be a logjam for playing time, and it can be hard for them to know which ones to keep and which ones to trade. The ones they kept finally had big years, O’Neill especially, but Bader too. Guys like Burleson and Yepez fit this mold exactly, and both will almost certainly end up better values than it will cost to acquire them this off-season. If they can’t find playing time in St. Louis, they will get flipped to a team that does have room for them.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
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-End of Season Top 466 2021 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
-End of Season Top 322 Dynasty Prospects Rankings

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks/Baltimore Orioles/Chicago White Sox/Miami Marlins/Milwaukee Brewers/Minnesota Twins/New York Yankees/Oakland Athletics/Philadelphia Phillies/St. Louis Cardinals

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)