Steven Matz NYM, TJS date: May 2010 – I drafted Matz as my 4^th starter in my latest 12 team redraft league. I say this to highlight the fact I don’t hate these pitchers and I’m not completely avoiding them, especially in redrafts. The risk becomes greater in dynasty and keeper formats for obvious reasons. Matz has long been labeled injury prone, and the concerns have only heightened since reaching the Majors. He underwent arthroscopic surgery this off-season to remove a large bone spur from his pitching elbow, which hopefully helps with the shoulder impingement that was bothering him all year and required a platelet plasma injection of its own. This May will be the 7-year anniversary of his first Tommy John surgery. Draft at your own risk.

Stephen Strasburg WASH, August 2010 – Strasburg was basically shut down in mid-August with a small tear in the pronator tendon, which caused his forearm to tighten every time he threw his slider. In an effort to remain healthy this year he will try to limit his slider usage, and if Spring Training is any indication, it looks like he might pitch exclusively from the stretch. I appreciate the willingness to try new things and recognize the elbow tendon grim reaper is looming, but even if the adjustments minimize the risk of injury, it increases the risk of performance decline. Strasburg’s performance wasn’t the problem when he was on the mound. There are more unknowns here than I am comfortable with when drafting an ace.

Danny Salazar CLE, August 2010 – Salazar’s elbow started bothering him around last year’s all-star break, eventually sidelining him in August after saying, “there’s something in my elbow and I don’t know what it is.” He was later diagnosed with the catchall “elbow inflammation.” His strikeout upside is worth hoping his elbow tendon can continue hanging on by what I’m sure is a thread, and he’s looked great so far this Spring, but don’t tell me you weren’t warned.

Jacob deGrom NYM, October 2010 – deGrom had season ending surgery in late September to repair ulnar nerve damage in his right arm. He had been experiencing forearm soreness for about a month before the surgery and his velocity was down all season from where he sat in 2015. It seems the surgery has worked so far, as he has dominated in Spring, so while he could be worth the risk in redrafts, I would be highly skeptical of him in Dynasty leagues.

Carlos Carrasco CLE, September 2011 – The problems have already started for Carrasco this season, as he experienced swelling in his elbow after his March 13^th start. The MRI came back clean and he should return to action later this week, but considering the problems the first 4 guys on this list experienced in their 6^th post-TJS year, it isn’t a great sign.

Rich Hill LAD, June 2011 – I don’t think I’ve ever seen a potential ace’s draft stock discounted more due to injury risk than with Hill this year. I’ve been ending up with him everywhere, but am preparing for under 150 IP.

Adam Wainwright STL, March 2011 – The torn ACL that kept him on the shelf for 5 months in 2015 might actually help preserve Wainwright’s elbow longer than expected. The bigger question is how effective he will be, as he took a major step back in 2016, and almost surely looks to be in the back nine of his career. I’m expecting an ERA under 4 this year, but a return to ace status would be a surprise.

Jordan Zimmermann DET, August 2009 – If I had been doing this list for the last two years, Zimmerman would have made the list both times, and both times you would have been keen to stay away from him. His velocity has now dropped two years in a row, and he pitched in only 105.1 innings last season due to injuries, although unrelated to his arm. He’s been getting pounded this Spring too, and even if you don’t buy into the extra injury risk, the performance decline looks to be in full swing.

John Lackey CHC, November 2011 – Lackey’s 2011 Tommy John surgery seemed to give him a late career jolt, as he just finished up his 4^th excellent and healthy post-surgery year at the ripe old age of 38. He did hit the 15-day DL in August with shoulder tightness last year, but I’m not sure there is any increased injury/performance risk here that any other 38-year-old pitcher doesn’t already inherently have.

Francisco Liriano TOR, November 2006 – Liriano’s been a high injury/performance risk since going under the knife over a decade ago, and that has never been more true than it is for this season. Considering the very low draft price, though, it might be a risk worth taking.

Wei-Yin Chen MIA, 2006 – Chen’s velocity was down last year and he pitched only 123.1 innings due to a left elbow sprain that held him out for two months. He has already surpassed the 7-8 year timeline, but there are signs his luck is about to run out, if it hasn’t already.

Edinson Volquez MIA, August 2009/Jaime Garcia ATL, February 2008 – The list of starting pitchers who underwent Tommy John surgery before Volquez and Garcia and are still pitching effectively (without needing a 2^nd TJS) is very short. Other than Liriano and Chen, the entire list literally consists of Anibal Sanchez and Scott Feldman. And I’m using the word “effectively” very loosely here. Both Volquez and Garcia would have made last year’s imaginary list, and while both stayed healthy, their numbers fell off a cliff.

Dice-K June 2011 – The clock might finally be ready to hit midnight on Dice-K’s long run of stateside dominance

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Catcher/First Base/Second Base/Shortstop/Third Base/Outfield(Top 25)/(Top 50)/(Top 75)/Starters(Top 25)/(Top 75)/(Top 100)/Closer/Top 250 Overall

26) Francisco Liriano PIT – Inconsistent and injury prone, but those strikeouts are too enticing to pass up. 2016 Projection: 12/3.44/1.25/178

27) Masahiro Tanaka NYY – Not going to let a little torn UCL scare me off. Willing to take the risk for his upside. 2016 Projection: 14/3.40/1.09/163

28) Michael Wacha STL – Collapsed in September, pitching to a 7.88 ERA. Could have been due to fatigue after reaching a career high in IP. 2016 Projection: 13/3.41/1.18/162

29) Carlos Martinez STL – Draws comparisons to Pedro Martinez, mostly because of his size, but his stuff isn’t too far off either. 2016 Projection: 12/3.40/1.27/179

30) Garrett Richards LAA – Coming off a torn knee ligament, Richards didn’t have the season many were hoping for in 2015. The ingredients are still there for him to put it together in 2016. 2016 Projection: 13/3.52/1.22/175

31) Michael Pineda NYY – FIP (3.34) was much better than his ERA (4.37). Still some injury risk stemming from his 2012 shoulder surgery. 2016 Projection: 12/3.48/1.14/168

32) Drew Smyly TB – Injury plagued 2015, but showed enormous promise when he did pitch. 2016 Projection: 10/3.39/1.18/157

33) Jeff Samardzija SFG – Had a complete meltdown in 2015. The stuff is the same, so I expect him to get it back together this season. 2016 Projection: 13/3.68/1.23/180

34) Steven Matz NYM – Wrote about Matz in my Matz vs. Severino article. 2016 Projection: 12/3.49/1.23/156

35) Marcus Stroman TOR – Didn’t seem any worse for the wear after returning from a torn ACL in September. Recommence the hype train. 2016 Projection: 13/3.57/1.20/160

36) Yordano Ventura KC – Roller coaster 2015, but finished strongish with a 3.56/1.32/98 pitching line in 91 IP post all-star break. 2016 Projection: 13/3.56/1.28/166

37) Julio Teheran ATL – After starting his career on fire his first two seasons, hit a small road block last year. Potential remains the same. 2016 Projection: 10/3.53/1.21/175

38) Lance McCullers HOU – (Update: Expected to begin the season on the DL after experiencing shoulder soreness. Return date is uncertain, but he is not expected to miss an extended period of time.) Strong rookie season, but I’m not expecting a full repeat. 2016 Projection: 12/3.62/1.27/159

39) Raisel Iglesias CIN – Everyone’s favorite sleeper that nobody is sleeping on. 2016 Projection: 10/3.63/1.23/175

40) Jose Quintana CHI-AL – Safe and boring but he keeps getting the job done year after year. 2016 Projection: 11/3.51/1.25/172

41) Joe Ross WASH – Tyson Ross’ little brother. Comes with the same nasty slider. 2016 Projections: 11/3.59/1.24/170

42) Hisashi Iwakuma SEA – Age and injury concerns. Still put up a pitching line of 3.05/1.02/91 in 100.1 IP post all-star break. 2016 Projection: 12/3.45/1.11/155

43) Patrick Corbin ARI – Came back strong from Tommy John surgery last season. Could take another step in 2016. 2016 Projection: 12/3.55/1.21/154

44) Justin Verlander DET – Came back from the dead in 2015. Might have some juice left in him after all. 2016 Projection: 12/3.66/1.22/167

45) Jimmy Nelson MIL – Wrote a Jimmy Nelson, 2016 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper post. 2016 Projection: 10/3.51/1.25/178

46) Carlos Rodon CHI-AL – Has serious control issues, but his strikeout potential is enormous. 2016 Projection: 11/3.69/1.30/182

47) Taijuan Walker SEA – Another young starter with tons of upside. Had some issues with the long ball last season. 2016 Projection: 11/3.72/1.19/175

48) Luis Severino NYY – Wrote about Severino in my Matz vs. Severino article. 2016 Projection: 12/3.68/1.26/158

49) Yu Darvish TEX – Expected to miss the first two months of the season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. I’m betting on him to hit the ground running when he returns, but who really knows. 2016 Projection: 9/3.46/1.22/155

50) James Shields SD – Had an extremely uncharacteristic 2015, seeing huge spikes in K’s and BB’s. Not exactly sure of what to expect in 2016. 2016 Projection: 12/3.70/1.26/184

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)