CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
–A Top 100 Sneak Peek of my 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings with more early releases coming all off-season
-Dynasty Team Reports for every team (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
–Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Top 56 Catchers dropped last week)
-End of Season 2021 Top 466 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
-End of Season 2021 Top 322 Dynasty Prospects Rankings

Hitters

Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 29.5 – I originally ranked Betts 14th overall on my Top 100 Sneak Peek of the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings, but when I was on the clock at 18th overall in the Rotowire 20 team OBP Dynasty Mock Draft, I found myself concerned that his hip injury could be the catalyst for him to stop running as much in the 2nd act of his career. A bone spur in his right hip led to a down season in 122 games where his sprint speed tanked to 27.1 ft/s and he stole only 3 bases in 5 attempts in his final 58 games. I’m more confident in his bat being just fine, because even in a down year he was still damn good with 23 homers and a 131 wRC+ in 122 games. None of his underlying hitting numbers really dropped off from career norms at all. The fear that he will stop running as much even if he does regain his speed, like we see with Trout and Altuve, has me thinking he will drop a bit on my next Sneak Peek update. 2022 Projection: 111/30/80/.288/.369/.519/13

Cody Bellinger LAD, OF/1B, 26.9 – I’m blaming the off-season shoulder surgery. It’s gotta be. I know pitchers started exploiting him up in the zone more too, but there is no other reasonable explanation for how insanely he fell off. There is no guarantee his shoulder ever truly goes back to what it was, and he was inconsistent even before the injury, so I’m not buying back in at elite level prices, but I’m certainly willing to take him on at a buy low price. 2022 Projection: 86/28/89/.251/.338/.494/10

Gavin Lux LAD, 2B, 24.4 – Lux significantly improved his plate approach in 2021 with a career best 21.8% K% and 10.8% BB%, and he notched a career high 89.8 MPH EV. But it’s homers and steals that rule in dynasty, and he’s still lacking there. He hits the ball on the ground too much (47.2% GB%), and while he put up a career best 92.6 MPH FB/LD EV, it’s still not great. He’s fast with a 29.1 ft/s sprint speed, but he’s only attempted 8 steals in his 144 game career. He did enough in 2021 to still be enticing in dynasty leagues, but not quite enough to get really excited. 2022 Projection: 76/18/68/.265/.340/.428/9

Starting Pitchers

Tony Gonsolin LAD, RHP, 27.11 – Right shoulder inflammation limited Gonsolin to 55.2 IP. He has two nasty secondaries in his slider and splitter, which put up a 47.8% and 41.4% whiff%, respectively. I would love him more if he was able to maintain the 95.1 MPH fastball he had in 2020, but it dropped down to 93.8 MPH this year. The pitch plays much better at the higher velocity. He also lost his control with a career worst 14.2% BB%. All together he is an above average strikeout pitcher with a career pitching line of 2.85/1.09/148/56 in 142.1 IP. It looks like he has a rotation spot. I’m buying Gonsolin, and the price is very affordable right now. 2022 Projection: 9/3.86/1.27/151 in 140 IP

Julio Urias LAD, LHP, 25.8 – I’ve been beating the don’t forget about Urias drum for a few years now and have consistently been the high man on him. It keeps paying off. Urias went next level breakout in 2021 with a pitching line of 2.96/1.02/195/38 in 185.2 IP. He has plus control (5.1% BB%-Top 6% of the league) of a 3 pitch mix that consistently induces weak contact (86 MPH EV against-Top 6% of the league). 2022 Projection: 14/3.42/1.09/193 in 180 IP

Bullpen

Blake Treinen LAD, Closer (for now), 33.9 – Treinen is the epitome of the volatile reliever with ERA’s all over the map in his 8 year career. 2021 was a great one, and he made real changes which gives hope this one is actually sustainable. He heavily reduced the use of his sinker and went to his slider and cutter more than ever. It led to a strikeout resurgence with a 29.7% K%. His 83.3 MPH EV against lead the league (150 BBE cutoff), with Loaisiga coming in 2nd and Jansen placing 3rd. Speaking of Jansen, Treinen is currently in the closer role, but they could easily bring Jansen back, or acquire a different closer altogether, so going after Treinen in Saves leagues is a risk right now. 2022 Projection: 5/3.30/1.18/71/25 in 65 IP

Los Angeles Dodgers Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects

1) Miguel Vargas LAD, 3B, 22.4 – Vargas is 6’3”, 205 pounds with potentially plus power that he naturally grew into more of this season. He doesn’t have to sell out to get to it, using the entire field and putting up excellent contact numbers. He slashed .319/.380/.526 with 23 homers, 11 steals, and a 16.4%/8.3% K%/BB% in 120 games at mostly Double-A. He’s not a burner but he’s been very successful on the bases in his minor league career (31 for 37 in 297 games), so at the least he won’t be a zero in that category. Vargas has started to get more love this off-season, but he’s still considerably underrated. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 86/26/88/.278/.344/.492/7

2) Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 23.0 – Miller is 6’5”, 220 pounds with good control over a premium, MLB ready 5 pitch mix. His 4 seamer consistently reaches the upper 90’s and his 2 seamer has that nasty tailing action. The slider is plus, the changeup is potentially plus, and his curve can be an effective pitch too. It led to a pitching line of 2.40/0.94/70/13 in 56.1 IP at mostly High-A. He missed 6 weeks with an undisclosed injury and he rarely went more than 4 IP. He also got mashed in the AFL (9.90 ERA), but he mentioned he was specifically working on his curveball, so I wouldn’t be too concerned. Miller still has to prove it over longer outings and for more than 56.1 innings, but he has legitimate ace upside. 2022 Projection: 1/4.21/1.33/22 in 20 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.66/1.23/195 in 170 IP

3) Andy Pages LAD, OF, 21.4 – Pages had the 8th highest flyball percentage in all of the minor leagues among qualified hitters with a 55.3% FB%. It led to 31 homers in 120 games at High-A. He walks a ton with a 14.3% BB% and he has reasonable contact rates too with a 24.5% K%. LA’s High-A ballpark is a pitcher’s park that reduces homers, so he was actually much better on the road (1.016 OPS) than he was at home (.846 OPS). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 86/32/89/.255/.345/.503/4

4) Michael Busch LAD, 2B, 24.4 – Busch was unable to carry over his plus contact rates from college (26.1% K% in 107 games at Double-A), but he was able to carry over the power (20 homers) and walks (14.1% BB%). He’s your classic power, patience, and K’s slugger who would be helped if the NL adds a DH, because he’s not a great defensive player. 2022 Projection: Prime Projection: 84/25/84/.260/.347/.481/2

5) Diego Cartaya LAD, C, 20.7 – Cartaya is a big man at 6’3”, 219 pounds, and he had no trouble getting to his at least plus raw power with 10 homers and a 39.2% GB% in just 31 games at Single-A (a passport issue and then a hamstring injury ended his season early). Here he is smoking a 97 MPH fastball for a dinger in June. His 27% K% was high, but he was still able to show a good feel to hit with a .298 BA, and he also had a high 13.1% BB%. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 69/26/77/.260/.336/.472/0

6) Landon Knack LAD, RHP, 24.8 – If you’re going to trust just one minor league stat, K/BB rate is a great one to trust, and Knack is elite in that category with an 82/8 K/BB in 62.1 IP split between High-A and Double-A. He throws a mid 90’s fastball up in the zone with 3 secondaries that flash plus (slider, curve, change). He doesn’t go to the change that often and his slider is more consistent than his curve. I’m not necessarily seeing top of the rotation upside, but a low WHIP, high K mid-rotation starter plays up in fantasy. 2022 Projection: 1/4.40/1.30/15 in 15 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.90/1.21/175 in 165 IP

7) Eddys Leonard LAD, SS, 21.4 – Leonard isn’t physically imposing at 6’0”, 160 pounds (probably heavier than that now), but the ball definitely jumps off his bat. He whacked 22 homers in 107 games split between Single-A and High-A. His plate approach was solid with a 23.6%/10.4% K%/BB%, and he has some speed too with 9 steals. He isn’t likely to win you any one category, but he can be a damn good overall hitter. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/21/76/.265/.339/.446/7

8) Wilman Diaz LAD, SS, 18.5 – Diaz struggled in his first taste of pro ball with an 89 wRC+ and 27.7% K% in 24 games in the DSL. He was getting better as the season went along, and 24 games is a very small sample, so I wouldn’t panic based on the slow start to his career. He still has all the tools that made him a high priced international signing, but he obviously has a long way to go. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 82/23/76/.267/.333/.450/12

9) Jorbit Vivas LAD, 2B/3B, 21.1 – Vivas’ power broke out in 2021 with 14 homers in 106 games, but 13 of those homers came at Single-A with Rancho Cucamonga, a known hitter’s paradise, as his home ballpark. He hit just one homer in 23 games at High-A. Regardless, his power definitely ticked up this year, and he combines that with elite contact rates (11.5% K%). He’s a lefty with extreme splits, so there is platoon risk. LA just added Vivas to their 40 man, protecting him from the Rule 5 draft, so they definitely like him a lot. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/16/68/.278/.342/.423/6

10) Ryan Pepiot LAD, RHP, 24.7 – It’s all about that filthy, double plus changeup for Pepiot. It is one of, if not the best changeup in the minors. He combines that with a mid 90’s fastball and a much improved slider. His control has been an issue going back to college, and it hasn’t improved much with an 11.2% BB% at Double-A and 10.4% BB% at Triple-A. He destroyed Double-A in general (2.87 ERA in 59.2 IP), but he got destroyed in Triple-A (7.13 ERA in 41.2 IP). His control needs to improve to reach his mid rotation upside. 2022 Projection: 2/4.55/1.38/28 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.17/1.33/160 in 155 IP

Just Missed

11) Jose Ramos LAD, OF, 21.3

Strategy

LA is one of the best developmental organizations in the league, but they can also go out and sign big time free agents to fill any hole they have on the MLB level, so their prospects don’t get a very long leash (see, Gavin Lux). Many times they break in as depth pieces earlier in their career and have to earn more playing time later on. The same goes for their pitchers, as they love to mess with their rotation to give guys extra rest. It can be a nightmare when you are expecting a two start week in weekly lineup leagues. Overall, I don’t shy away from going after their prospects, but lack of playing time/innings is definitely something I factor in.

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)