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Slade Cecconi – CLE, RHP, 26.9 – I was the only man alive with a bat speed against target this off-season, and in fact, I might have been the only man alive to even look at bat speed against, hah, but when I dug in, there was one major takeaway, and in short, that takeaway was Slade motherfucking Cecconi. Hitters swing in Slow Mo vs. this man, and they were swinging in mud yesterday too. He went 6 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB vs. CLE. He has a well below average 70.0 MPH swing speed against this year, which is even better than last years mark. I was smelling that there was some value in bat speed against when I dug in for my 18 Dynasty Baseball Strategies/Thoughts for 2026, writing in part, “Chis Sale once again led all starters with a 70.9 MPH against, and Hunter Greene was 2nd at 71.1 MPH. Skubal was third and Skenes was 4th. I mean, the fact that those 4 guys are top 4 tells me that bat speed against means at least a little bit. The interesting takeaway from that is that Slade Cecconi is 5th.” The 93.5 MPH 4-seamer dominated in this one with a 44% whiff% (8 for 18). I loved the cutter this spring, and he went to it 29% in this one, using it to induce weak contact with a 72.8 MPH EV. The curve and sweeper were solid too, leading to a 30% whiff% and 87.1 MPH EV on the day. His first outing wasn’t as good as this one and the fastball velo is down a bit, so too early to call this one in either direction, but I’m pumped to continue following how my bat speed against does. And just looking at the early leaderboard this year, I see Andrew Painter sitting pretty at 69.6 MPH. Hmmm .. I like it.

Braxton Ashcraft – PIT, RHP, 26.6 – If you read my first Monday Morning Rundown of the season last week, you know I took my lumps, so let your boy have some fun with this one and take some laps. And nothing more fun than seeing one of my top pitcher targets go off against Baltimore. Ashcraft went 6 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 8/0 K/BB. The 96.2 MPH gas put up a 31% CSW%. The slider and sinker induced weak contact. And the curve and splitter missed bats and induced weak contact. That’s two good outings to start the season for Ashcraft, and while I would say he’s off to more of a solid start than a truly dominant one, as there are things to nitpick (like the 22.7% whiff%), we’ll take it. I know he started to get a ton of love as the off-season went along (thanks, Eno … hah, I’m just messing around, I’m an Eno fan! But I planted that flag back on October 6th in the first Dynasty Team Report I wrote up, and I literally wrote in that Pirates Team Report, “There is nothing worse than identifying targets/sleepers early in the off-season, only to watch their value skyrocket by the time your draft comes around. You just sit and pray everyday that some popular analyst doesn’t decide to name them one of their sleepers, because if they do, forget about it, all value is lost in the blink of an eye.” … hah, so can’t say I didn’t see it coming, but he deserved that love and I remained high. Long way to go but good start.

Edward Cabrera – CHC, RHP, 28.0 – Cabrera was another big target for me, and he put in Yeoman’s Work vs. CLE, going 5.2 IP with 1 ER, 0 ER, and a 4/5 K/BB. Sure those walks are scary considering his track record, but when it comes with a one hitter shutout, we won’t get so worked up over them. He went to the 93 MPH changeup 46% of the time and it notched a 35% whiff%. The heaters didn’t miss any bats, but he was pumping them in there at 97 MPH on the sinker and 95.5 MPH on the 4-seamer. The curve and slider combined for 2 for 5 whiffs. That’s two straight shutouts for Cabrera. Great start.

Chase Burns – CIN, RHP, 23.2 – I hade Burns in a completely other Tier than any of the other fun young aces, already putting Top 10 dynasty pitcher status on him, and he hasn’t disappointed, going 6 IP with 5 hits, 1 ER, and a 9/1 K/BB vs. TEX. The 98.6 MPH fastball put up a 32% whiff% and the 91.2 MPH slider put up a 56 whiff%. He didn’t go to the changeup often, but it dominated when he did with 3 of 6 whiffs and a 56.8 MPH EV against. It’s his 2nd dominant outing of the season. I was all gas, no brakes on Burns and this is why. I still think he’s on a level of his own. True ace.

Maikel Garcia – KCR, 3B, 26.1 – Garcia got on the board for his 1st homer with a 101.5 MPH shot off Kyle Harrison, and it was only a matter of time with that 18.1 degree launch. Once he got a taste of that power uptick in 2025, I knew he was going to smell blood in the water and come for more. I saw the Ketel Marte rise since him being one of my top targets in 2024, and I thought he was coming for elite dynasty asset status this year, writing in his Top 1,000 blurb, “I don’t see why Garcia wouldn’t be emboldened by the success he had in 2025, and try to continue to build on that this off-season. Ketel Marte had that similar slow but steady rise in launch, barrels, and air pull, and I still see that same path for Garcia. Even if he doesn’t keep improving, this was a definite leveling up/breakout, and I think there could be more down the line especially with the new ballpark dimensions. I’m buying high.” … and I’m still buying high. I really do believe we could be looking at an elite or near elite dynasty asset in short order.

Joseph Dzierwa – BAL, LHP, 21.11, A+ – I know Dzierwa didn’t pitch yesterday, but I’m too pumped not to include him in this Rundown after his gem of a first outing. He went 6 IP with 1 hits, 0 ER, and a 9/1 K/BB. If you’re on my Patreon, you know he was my top true sleeper college FYPD arm that was getting zero hype, but he’s not getting zero hype anymore as his value already started to rise with a killer Spring Breakout appearance. And now this. Just watch this filth from a funky 6’9” lefty delivery. That is what I was watching when this guy was in college, saying he’s massively underrated. It’s only High-A and there is a long way to go, but you almost got your money’s worth already as a trade piece if you scooped him in your FYPD.

Miguel Sime – WSH, RHP, 18.11, A – Dzierwa was my top college sleeper target, but Sime was my top high school sleeper target, and the start to Sime’s career might be even nastier than Dzierwa. I was seriously on an island with both of these guys. His hype got going in Spring Breakout too, and now it’s going right into the regular season. He went 2.1 IP with 1 hit, 1 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB at Single-A. I watched this entire outing and Single-A hitters were straight helpless up there. The breakers were filthy and he actually commanded them pretty damn well. He was then blowing upper 90’s heat right by guys. There is definitely still control/third pitch risk, but I’m even more all in now than I already was. Don’t make me choose between Sime and Dzierwa! It’s like making me choose a favorite child! But both are legit on a beeline for Top 100 status.

Kaelen Culpepper – MIN, SS, 23.3, AAA – And how about another FYPD Target while we’re on the subject, this one from the 2024 Draft, Culpepper is off to a hot start at Triple-A, going deep twice for his 2nd and 3rd bombs on the year. The first came off Payton Tolle (who pitched well as we are just awaiting his much deserved 2nd shot at the majors) at 101.3 MPH. When Culpepper gets ahold one to his pull side it is a thing of beauty as seen here off Tolle and then here for his 2nd of the day. The camera wasn’t close enough to see if he went Tongue Out, but I like to think he did. He definitely looks bigger and stronger to me this year too, and he’s hitting the ball harder too with a 50% Hard Hit% and 90.3 MPH EV. That is the main thing we needed to see, because the hit, speed and D were already there. The Twins don’t believe in Brooks Lee. That means Culpeper is on the way sooner rather than later at SS, although Marek Houston is going to figure in very soon as well. I’ve loved him for 2 years now, and his value is jumping even higher to start 2026. He basically needs to be owned in just about all leagues sizes, no matter how shallow or how few prospects are owned.

 Jesus Made – MIL, SS, 18.11, AA – Checking on in the 18 year old Made at Double-A … 4 for 5 with an opposite field frozen rope dinger and a stolen base. Yea, I would say that will do. With Griffin, McGonigle, and Basallo all debuted, that makes Jesus Made my #1 non debuted prospect in baseball. But you better believe Leo De Vries is nipping at his heels. If I could name two #1’s, I would. But I can’t. That’s not how rankings work. There can only be one #1. It’s Made … for now.

Marek Houston – MIN, SS, 22.0, A+ – Houston needs to show more power. We know he needs to show more power. He knows he needs to show more power. And then he went out in his 3rd game at High-A and showed more power with an opposite field blast. Although it seemed he lifted that one into the wind stream and let mother nature do the rest. He’s off to a hot start to the season with a 232 wRC+ in 3 games. If the Hard Hit comes, he’s going to look like an FYPD steal, but long way to do and he’s still in the lower minors.

Charles Davalan – LAD, OF, 22.4, A+ – Davalan ripped up his 8 game pro debut in 2025, and now he’s picking right back up after hitting 2 homers in the same inning! That also might tell us something about the level of pitching he was facing, but we’ll gloss over that for a second hah. Davalan is your classic little man discount FYPD pick, and in an era where the little men are starting to get not all that discounted at all, he still did at 41st overall in the draft. LA jumped on that value. He’s little, but he cracked 14 homers his junior year and 10 homers his sophomore year, so the guy has pop. The contact is elite, he’s got good plate skills and plus speed. That is everything. I still fear he’s a 400-500 PA guy on the Dodgers if he doesn’t get traded, but that is only something we can keep in the back of your mind right now. He’s gonna fly up rankings this year.

Jack Leiter – TEX, RHP, 25.11 – 5 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 9/1 K/BB vs. CIN … The 97.3 MPH fastball put up a 56% whiff% (9 for 16). The changeup nearly matched it at 54% (7 for 13). And the slider chipped in with 2 for 4 whiffs. It all led to a 47% whiff% with a 86.7 MPH EV against. I was getting pretty excited about Leiter after his first outing, and I can’t help but feel even better after this one. We know he’s inconsistent. We need to see it for longer before really putting young ace on him, but man does he look electric. I’m buying it.

Kyle Harrison – MIL, LHP, 24.8 – 5.1 IP, 3 hits, 2 ER, 6/2 K/BB vs. KC … The Brewers are like, who needs secondaries anyway, we’ll get the breakout just on the back of that nasty fastball on it’s own. It sat 94.2 MPH in this one on 60% usage with a 30% whiff%. The slurve induced weak contact with a 77.5 MPH EV against the changeup was useless with 0 whiffs, 0 called strikes and a 110.8 MPH EV. His value was rising in spring due to the changeup, but the real reason his value was rising because Milwaukee is the model franchise, and they are proving once again their supremacy. The fact the secondaries haven’t been shining still matter to me, so I wouldn’t go too crazy on his value, but he clearly keeps trending up.

Kodai Senga – NYM, RHP, 32.6 – 5.2 IP, 5 hits, 2 ER, 7/2 K/BB vs. SFG … The 96 MPH put up a 29% whiff%. The forkball notched a 44% whiff%. The cutter and sweeper missed bats. It all led to a 32% whiff%. We already knew Senga was back this spring. He dominated in game 1 too. He’s fully back. Now he’s just gotta stay healthy.

Oneil Cruz – PIT, OF, 27.6 – I joked in my Patreon Rundowns that my 2025 Targets were so insane, that the few that didn’t hit are now going off in 2026 (Jordan Walker, Jose Soriano, Garrett Mitchell, Oneil Cruz), and Cruz keeps coming with a 111.8 MPH bomb yesterday. And better, yet, it came with 0 K on a 2 for 4 day. The swing and miss is still in crazy, full blown danger zone with a 48.5% whiff%. Honestly, I’m not even sure what to do with that hah … so I ain’t going back all in as the risk is still sky high, but I love to see the hot start to the season. I still own a lot of the guys I listed above from going after them in 2025. Those 2025 Targets are the gift that keeps on giving.

Ben Rice – NYY, 1B/C, 27.1 – Speaking of those 2025 Targets, Rice might have been my favorite hit from that group, and now he’s going next level nuclear after destroying a 110 MPH homer off Pete Fairbanks. He has a 96.9 MPH EV with a 1.380 OPS and .453 xwOBA. After being unlucky the last two years according to Statcast, the luck gods are in his favor this year. I’m scared to see what a lucky Ben Rice season looks like.

Drake Baldwin – ATL, C, 25.0 – Baldwin wasn’t a target for me in 2025, but there were more than enough catcher targets to go around for everyone last year, and like Rice, Baldwin’s taking it up a notch in 2026 after going 3 for 5 with a 108.4 MPH homer off Pfaadt. That gives him 4 homers with a 6.7% K% and .461 xwOBA. The launch is up a bit to 8.5 degrees. We are in a whole new era of catchers and it’s glorious.

Cole Young – SEA, 2B, 22.8 – Young’s power surge from the spring has transferred to the regular season with him smacking a 104 MPH homer for his 2nd in 10 games. He has a 157 wRC+. The underlying numbers don’t look quite as good as the surface stats though with a 85.4 MPH EV and 37.5% Hard Hit%. That Hard Hit% is up from 2025, so I see the uptick, but it’s still not in true power hitter territory. I still do worry that he’s not running much, and I also worry the power is only going to end up solid rather than truly impact. Which means the upside might not be huge, especially in Seattle, but I can’t hate on the start. Or I guess I can, because I just did hah, but I like him!

TJ Rumfield – COL, 1B, 25.10 – Rumfield was getting some deep sleeper love this off-season, and the guys touting him have to be hyped right now after he lifted off at 107.6 MPH for his 2nd homer. He now has a 168 wRC+ in 9 games. I can’t lie that I’m still not really buying in though. He just simply doesn’t hit the ball hard enough for me. He has a 84.3 MPH EV with a 31.8% Hard Hit%. He didn’t hit the ball that hard at Triple-A either. The hit tool is solid but it’s not elite. Fun start, and maybe I’m wrong, but I still don’t see big upside here. I’m not buying high.

Mickey Moniak – COL, OF, 27.11 – Moniak on the other hand I was buying into more, and he’s looking to build on that 2025 breakout with 2 homers at 108.7 MPH and 103.1 MPH. He crushed the ball in 2025, and he’s back at it in 2026. I’m in here.

Foster Griffin – WSH, LHP, 30.8 – Hit em with that kitchen sink baby as Griffin threw a 7 pitch mix, going 5 IP with 5 hits, 1 ER, and a 6/3 K/BB vs. the Dodgers. He only sits 91.2 MPH, but the myriad of secondaries had the Dodgers in stiches, leading to a 30% whiff% overall. That’s his 2nd excellent outing of the season as Griffin is establishing himself as a legit fantasy option. Back end kitchen sink guy is likely still the projection, but the mid-rotation upside is definitely popping it’s head up. With Cody Ponce down for the count, Foster has to pick up the pieces for his fallen Expat.

Parker Messick – CLE, LHP, 25.5 – 5 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 6/3 K/BB vs. CHC … there is nothing prospect rankers hate more than low velo. These guys can literally prove it in the majors, and prospect rankers will still give them all kinds of disrespect. But you know what, Messick averaged 93.3 MPH in this one, which isn’t even low velo for a lefty, and the pitch put up a more than respectable 25% whiff%. The changeup was untouchable with 7 of 10 whiffs. The breakers missed some bats and he mixed in a sinker and cutter, all leading to a 35% whiff% overall. His first start was a gem against the Dodgers. It’s pretty clear this dude isn’t going anywhere. I gave him love as a Top 75 prospect and Top 300-ish dynasty asset, and he continues to climb those rankings.

Christian Zazueta – LAD, RHP, 21.6, A+ – 4 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 7/1 K/BB at High-A … Zazueta is a hype beast breakout candidate this year, and his first real start at High-A went just about how his starts at Single-A went last year. Which is that he’s a K/BB King, and a K/BB King is the best kind of King there is as a pitcher. He put up a 29.7/5.9 K%/BB% in 2025. He’s 6’3” with a potentially plus 93+ fastball/changeup combo. Fastball/changeup righties guys can often dominate the lower minors before finding trouble against more advanced competition, so as a 21 year old, we need to see it in the upper minors before really going crazy, but keep him on your radar.

Nathan Flewelling – TBR, C, 19.5, A+ – Flewelling was a popular sleeper catcher prospect this off-season, and he got on the board for his first at High-A as a 19 year old going lefty on lefty. He also has a 50% K% in 3 games, so still a long way to go and a lot to prove, but he looks to be in the next wave of top catcher prospects.

Conor Essenburg – ATL, LHP/OF, 19.6, A – Essenburg was a $1.2 million dollar bonus baby, and while I was unsure if they were going to unleash him as a pitcher or a hitter, it looks like hitter won with him cracking his first pro homer. He utterly obliterated this thing and then hit us with a much deserved stop and stare. I think it left the park. He’s 6’2′, 200 and you can see that power clearly. He’s also hitting .182 with a 40% K% in 3 games, so as with a lot of these super talented high school players, it will come down to if the hit tool will play or not. If it doesn’t though, he’s got the backup plan of going back on the mound.

Kevin Alcantara – CHC, OF, 23.8, AAA – Alcantara is off to a smoking start at Triple-A, crushing his 4th homer in 8 games. These things aren’t chip shots either with him putting up a 93.7 MPH EV in the early going. Dude is 6’6” with no joke power. The same problems from the off-season are still there though, which is the hit tool (35.8% whiff%), and really the biggest problem, which is that he didn’t get traded. He desperately needs a trade and for a team to unleash his truly special talent and power/speed combo. There will be hit tool troubles, but the right team should stay patient with him.

Roki Sasaki – LAD, RHP, 24.5 – 5 IP, 5 hits, 6 ER, 5/3 K/BB vs. WAS … it was nice while it lasted. I don’t think anyone was buying after his first solid appearance and I honestly think the Dodgers are only starting him because they feel like they have to/it’s the right thing to do. He signed for just $6.5 million under MLB’s international free agent rules. Without those rules, he would have probably gotten over $100 million. I think they feel like they owe him this. But I will say the underlying numbers for this start don’t look bad at all. He put up a 32% whiff% with a 85.6 MPH EV against. All 3 of his pitches missed bats. I don’t think this outing should be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. A breakout isn’t impossible even if I’m not betting on it.

George Klassen – LAA, RHP, 24.2 – Klassen made his MLB debut and it was rough, going 2.2 IP with 3 hits, 2 ER, and a 4/5 K/BB vs. SEA … the filthy stuff was there with the 97.1 MPH fastball putting up a 40% whiff%. The slider notched a 67% whiff%. The 40% whiff% with a 86.6 MPH EV overall looked good, but as you can see, the control just wasn’t there at all. That is what he’s struggled with his entire career. I love the stuff obviously, but I hate the franchise, and I just don’t trust the Angels at all to call Klassen one of my guys. He’s definitely in that pitching prospect bucket I love shopping in, but I ended up grabbing other guys in that bucket this year.

Dalton Rushing – LAD, C, 25.1 – 1 for 3 with his 1st homer at 103 MPH in his first start since March 30th and with only 5 PA on the season … James Tibbs, meet your ghost of MLB Debut future …

 James Tibbs III – LAD, OF, 23.6, AAA – Didn’t homer … now I only give you updates when he doesn’t homer. More noteworthy …

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWaIl)

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Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

There is nothing worse than identifying targets/sleepers early in the off-season, only to watch their value skyrocket by the time your draft comes around. You just sit and pray everyday that some popular analyst doesn’t decide to name them one of their sleepers, because if they do, forget about it, all value is lost in the blink of an eye. I’ve been playing fantasy since the late 1900’s, back when you could die of dysentery while traveling by covered wagon on the Oregon Trail (okay, not the real Oregon Trail, but that awesome The Oregon Trail video game we all used to play back then), when Yahoo brought it to the internet, and I would dread every Yahoo article that would pop up right on the league homepage, because if they named a guy who I liked a sleeper, I knew it was done. Even now as a writer, that feeling is almost tenfold, because I’m only human who can get petty sometimes, “hey, that’s my target!!!” Lay off Nick, Eno, Geoff, Grey, Chris, Eric, Ross etc … hah … I’m only half joking of course. I love all of those guys. That is where meditation comes in really handy, but that is a conversation for another day … so all of that to say, I wanted to kick off the Dynasty Team Reports with some targets who I think will remain targets all off-season. Real sleepers. Pitt is starting to become standouts in pitcher development, and while their reputation has been rising, it’s not even close to the level of Tampa or LA or Seattle. So these guys aren’t going to get the org bump that so many do. They also have a very deep rotation, which will make people hesitant about going all in on their bottom of the rotation guys because some of their roles are going to be up in the air, probably through the end of March. And none of these guys ever got huge prospect hype, so the name value is in check. So with that as the backdrop, let’s dive into the Pirates Team Report …

Pitchers

Johan Oviedo – PIT, RHP, 28.1 – I don’t foresee a bunch of analysts jumping on the Oviedo bandwagon this off-season, or at least not enough to really inflate his value out of the true “sleeper” area by the time drafts come around. He returned from Tommy John surgery after missing the entire 2024 season, and unlike so many other Tommy John returnees, not only didn’t he look diminished, he came back a new man. He added 5 inches of induced vertical break to his fastball, and it turned into a dominant pitch with an elite 31.3% whiff%. It sits 95.5 MPH and it also comes with an elite 7.4 feet of extension from his 6’6”, 275 pound frame. The dude is a beast. He combines that with two good breakers in his slider (86.7 MPH EV against with a 27.6% whiff%) and curve (38.1% whiff%), while also mixing in a sinker and changeup. He was actually better vs. lefties (.560 OPS) than righties (.724 OPS) this year, so he doesn’t have major split issues either. It all led to a 3.57 ERA with a 24.7/13.5 K%/BB% in 40.1 IP. The control is below average, the K/BB doesn’t look great, and all of the ERA estimators (SIERA, xFIP) don’t love him either, but that is what makes him a true, last couple rounds of the draft sleeper. These days, everyone is looking at the same stuff, so if you want a real sleeper, you are going to have to find different avenues, and Oviedo is that avenue. I love him as a let him come to you at the end of the draft type target. – 2026 Projection: 9/3.77/1.28/164 in 160 IP

Braxton Ashcraft – PIT, RHP, 26.6 – Ashcraft has been a target of mine for a few years now, so if you’ve read my work, you might already have him, but if you don’t, this off-season could be your last chance to get in at a decent price. He made his MLB debut and he proved his skills will most certainly transfer with a 2.71 ERA and 24.3/8.2 K%/BB% in 69.2 IP. He throws gas with a 97 MPH 4-seamer and a 96.6 MPH sinker that keeps the ball on the ground with a negative 9 degree launch. The slider is his most used pitch and it induces weak contact with a 83 MPH EV against and misses bats with a 32.4% whiff%. The curve is a bat missing weapon too with a 36.6% whiff% and a .214 xwOBA, The slider, curve and sinker were all plus Run Value Pitches. He also had no split issues with a .675 OPS vs. lefties. And the control has been plus to double plus for most of his career. If he were on the Mariners, we would be looking at him as the next in line of their big, fire balling, plus control righties, but with Pitt, he barely gets a whisper of hype. He pitched in a variety of roles in 2025, many of them short outings, so while there is some role risk, that is another reason his price should stay low all off-season. With injuries and ineffectiveness, I would be surprised if he didn’t rack up plenty of innings as a full time starter in 2026. Ashcraft and Oviedo are not going to be the darlings of the off-season hype machine fantasy world. These are guys you can truly get on the cheap. They ranked 360th and 362nd overall on the End of Season 2025 Top 450 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). – 2026 Projection: 9/3.58/1.21/150 in 150 IP

Mike Burrows – PIT, RHP, 26.5 – I don’t like Burrows quite as much as I do Oviedo and Ashcraft, but he has something neither of them do, which is a dominant changeup. His change was straight elite with a +9 Run Value, 83.6 MPH EV against, and a 43.1% whiff%. It was tied for the 6th most valuable changeup in baseball, and he did it in only 96.6 IP. Having a pitch that good should not be ignored. It’s really the only thing he does well, but he has big velocity with a 95.5 MPH fastball, and his slider isn’t too bad either with a +1 Run Value. It all led to a solid 3.94 ERA and 24.1/7.7 K%/BB% in 96 IP. Pitt is becoming one of the better pitching development teams in baseball, and while none of these guys are spring chickens, we know pitching development is all over the place. Late 20 breakouts are not that rare, and all 3 of these guys have the ingredients to take steps forward. Their rotation is deep, and it’s going to be a battle for spots, but we know that these things work themselves out. All 3 of their values should be super low too, which is where the real value comes in. I’m going to be grabbing a ton of Oviedo/Ashcraft/Burrows super late in drafts/auctions. They aren’t getting nearly the hype they deserve, and my guess is that they won’t get that hype all off-season. – 2026 Projection: 8/3.88/1.27/142 in 145 IP

Hitters

Oneil Cruz – PIT, OF, 27.6 – Cruz might have had the most disappointing 20/38 season of all time. If you told me he was going to go 20/38 before the season started, I would have said he’s going to be a huge hit, but we all know that isn’t how it played out. The BA completely tanked, sitting directly on the Mendoza line at .200, but even more worrisome is that it was getting worse as the season went along, much worse with a .184 BA in his final 104 games. And it was even more brutal vs. lefties with a .102 BA. He was sitting a ton by the end of the season, because he’s not a good defensive player either. We are in a real pickle here, because a guy who can’t hit lefties, has major BA risk, and isn’t great on defense doesn’t sound like a good bet, but at the same time, he can legitimately go 30/40, and that isn’t even a stretch to say. The 17.9% Barrel%, 95.8 MPH EV, 78.8 MPH swing, and 56.6% Hard Hit% are all off the charts. Well, they’re on the charts, but extremely high up on the charts. The 29.2 ft/sec sprint is double plus too. And the underlying numbers say he got unlucky. The .229 xBA and the .330 xwOBA were both much better than the surface stats. He has a career .233 BA. If he hits .240 next year, he has the type of talent that can win leagues, especially with how far I’m expecting him to fall this off-season. If you own him already, there is nothing to do but hold. Selling low would be silly. And while I can’t say I’m targeting him hard, I will 100% grab him if his price falls too low. This is still a Top 100 dynasty asset for me. – 2026 Projection: 76/22/74/.228/.309/.427/33

Bullpen

Dennis Santana – PIT, Closer, 30.0 – Banking on fringy closers to remain closers throughout the entire off-season is a bet that can often come back to bite you. Even with Pitt, who don’t spend big, they can still sign some lower priced vets to come in and compete. So while I can’t be certain that Santana will hold this role all off-season, he looks like the heavy favorite. He took over for Bednar after the deadline and dominated with a 1.27 ERA, 26.9/7.7 K%/BB%, and 10 saves in his final 21.1 IP. The stuff isn’t truly monstrous like many of the other top closers in the game, but it’s big enough with a 94.7 MPH fastball, and the slider is the true moneymaker with a .248 xwOBA and 35.7% whiff%. The cutter is a good pitch too. It’s not close to true elite closer status with true elite bat missing ability, which is why there is risk Pitt can bring in other arms, so he’s just a low end closer option right now. – 2026 Projection: 4/3.61/1.19/60/24 saves in 65 IP

Pittsburgh Pirates 2026 Top 10 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Prospects Rankings

1) Konnor Griffin – PIT, SS/OF, 19.11 – I felt the Griffin explosion in my gut last off-season. The Baseball Gods were speaking to me, and I listened, predicting he would explode into elite prospect status in my Predicting the Top 50 2026 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings last off-season, ranking him 4th overall and writing, “Griffin will have the explosion that everyone who passed on him in first year player drafts feared he would have. The hit tool concerns will be overblown as he maintains an under 25% K% at Single-A, and the power/speed combo will shine with 16 homers and 48 steals in 102 games. He’ll basically be the 2026 version of the 2025 version of Sebastian Walcott. Off the charts tools and a better than expected hit tool.” … and then he went out and surpassed even those expectations, slashing .333/.415/.527 with 21 homers, 65 steals, and a 21.7/8.9 K%/BB% in 122 games. He finished the season at Double-A where he actually put up his best wRC+ of any level with a 175 wRC+ in 21 games. Remember when everyone was making excuses for the 19 year old Walcott at Double-A all year for his mediocre slash? Well, Griffin came in and just busted that whole thing up, showing a 19 year old can most certainly dominate the level. Not only did I forsee the rise in the off-season, but I got blow back after ranking him 1st overall on the Prospect Rankings in early June before he even got the call to High-A. I then made a final plea in my August Dynasty Rankings before he got the call to Double-A, shooting him up to 29th overall and writing, “This is my final plea to you. DO NOT TRADE GRIFFIN UNDER ANY SCENARIO. I don’t even think Roman Anthony can touch his upside. Just don’t trade him, please.” And then after what he did at Double-A, there is no more room for debate. He’s lightning fast, he crushes the ball with a 91.2 MPH EV and 49% Hard Hit%, and the hit tool was better than expected. This is not only the #1 prospect in baseball, but he’s already a nearly elite dynasty asset for me. He ranked 1st overall on the End of Season 2025 Top 325 Dynasty Prospects Rankings (Patreon), and he ranked 23rd overall on the End of Season 2025 Top 450 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). – 2026 Projection: 28/9/35/.247/.318/.433/17 Prime Projection: 118/32/111/.279/.351/.523/44

2) Edward Florentino – PIT, OF/1B, 19.5 – I don’t see Florentino getting ranked anywhere close to elite prospect range on the mainstream Top 100’s right now. In fact, he’s towards the back of those Top 100’s, so depending on how deep your league mates like to dig, there could actually be really good value on Florentino this off-season. I know there are many leagues out there that almost exclusively use those mainstream lists to value prospects, and even in leagues that use the underground sources like myself, I still think there is value to be had. This is straight up an elite dynasty prospect, and I don’t think many people are ready to really go all in like that on him, but I am. This is a 6’4”, 200 pound beast with an athletic, powerful, and smooth lefty swing that is made to hit dingers. He jacked out 10 homers in 54 games at Single-A and 16 homers in 83 games overall. The underlying numbers back it up too with a 89 MPH EV, 26 degree launch, and 38.7% Hard Hit%. He did that as just an 18 year old, so those hard hit numbers are only going up, and the best part is that he looked like a seasoned vet with excellent plate skills, putting up a 16.3% whiff% and 22.5% Chase%. This has the makings of a truly special power bat. And wildest part of all is that he’s a really good baserunner, going 35 for 41 on the bases. He’s not a burner with poor to mediocre speed grades, so maybe the steals slow down as he climbs the ladder, but Pitt also played him in CF mostly, which tells me there is very real athleticism in here. I doubt he ends up in CF, but you don’t just throw a guy into CF for funsies. It means something that they had him out there. Don’t be lulled to sleep by the low mainstream rankings, this dude is elite and deserves to be treated like it. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 96/33/107/.268/.354/.509/16

3) Bubba Chandler – PIT, RHP, 23.6 – Triple-A is fucking hard. Like really fucking hard. The Majors is easier. That was a running joke I had in the Dynasty Rundowns all season, but it wasn’t really a joke at all. So many pitchers struggled hard at Triple-A, and then looked much better in the majors. Maybe it was the ABS Challenge system (which is coming to the Majors in 2026), maybe it was the ballparks, maybe they were pissed they weren’t in the majors already, maybe they were working on stuff, or maybe it was a combination of many things, but too many pitchers looked so much better once they got to the majors to write it off, especially their walk rates. And Chandler most certainly got the Majors is easier bump once he got there, putting up a 4.02 ERA with a 25.0/3.2 K%/BB% in 31.1 IP. He had a 5.96 ERA with a 21.2/13.1 K%/BB% in his last 51.1 IP at Triple-A before getting the call. The turnaround is just wild. The 98.9 MPH fastball got hit hard with a 93.9 MPH EV, but it was a whiff machine with a 30.8% whiff%, and that is more important to see right now. The famed changeup also dominated with a .155 xwOBA and 39.6% whiff%. And his worst pitch of the three, the slider, actually had the best Run Value of them all (+5), on the back of weak contact (85.6 MPH EV against), although it didn’t miss many bats with a 22.5% whiff%. It was a very positive MLB debut, and the bloom that was coming off the rose at Triple-A was fully put back on in the majors. He’s an elite pitching prospect, and possibly the #1 pitching prospect in baseball, although he has some competition for that crown, most notably from Chase Burns, Thomas White and Nolan McLean. – 2026 Projection: 10/3.56/1.27/178 in 170 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.29/1.10/225 in 195 IP

4) Seth Hernandez – PIT, RHP, 19.9 – Selected 6th overall in the 2025 MLB Draft, Hernandez has the highest pure upside of any arm in the class. He’s a great athlete with prototypical size at 6’4”, 195 pounds, and the stuff is filthy with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and a double plus changeup. The breakers (slider, curve) aren’t quite as impressive, and can be inconsistent, but they definitely have the potential to get to plus at peak. And his control/command is really strong for a high school starter with this level of stuff, generally throwing all of his pitches around the plate. I would be lying if I didn’t mention that I see at least some shades of Brock Porter, who had a very similar profile as a 19 year old starter with upper 90’s heat, an elite change, and inconsistent breakers. That also underscores how risky high school righties have traditionally been in the draft. Noble Meyer and Dylan Lesko can attest to that. Even Jackson Jobe and Andrew Painter, who have risen to elite prospect status, needed Tommy John and have had their struggles of late. But Hunter Greene exists too. There is an argument to let someone else draft Hernandez, and then buy low on him after he gets Tommy John surgery. But the top of the rotation upside is undeniable, and that upside is worth the risk. He ranked 8th overall on my Updated Top 60 2026 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon). – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 14/3.45/1.13/200 in 180 IP

5) Hunter Barco – PIT, LHP, 25.4 – Most people have Barco pegged as a back end arm, and I mean, they very well might end up correct. It’s probably the smart bet to make, but I think there is more in there than that, and because he doesn’t really get very much love in the prospect world (both mainstream and underground), that puts him into the pitching prospect aisle I love to shop in. For one, he has that funky lefty delivery that I am an absolute sucker for, and that deception helps his entire arsenal play up. He only had a 3 inning cup of coffee at the end of the year, but in those 3 innings he proved the stuff will translate to the majors with a 33.3% whiff% on the 94 MPH sinker, a 42.9% whiff% on the splitter, and a 33.3% whiff% on the slider. That gives him weapons to get both lefties and righties out. And we all know the low velo, plus changeup lefty was all the rage this year. Barco has that profile, and maybe even a supercharged version of it. He didn’t give up a single earned run in 25.2 IP at Double-A to start the year, and then he held his own in the Triple-A is fucking hard league with a 3.79 ERA and 25.4/13.0 K%/BB% in 73.2 IP. I mean, it’s arguably better than what Chandler did at the level. Just saying. The biggest problem is that he might be 7th on the depth chart right now, but in dynasty, it’s less of a problem. Barco is one of my favorite low cost, close to the majors pitching prospects. – 2026 Projection: 4/3.98/1.29/78 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.69/1.22/167 in 160 IP

6) Termarr Johnson – PIT, 2B, 21.10 – Johnson hasn’t had the rise we hoped for when he was the 4th overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, but it’s been far from a disaster, and that Pitt 2B job is still sitting wide open for him. Based off where they drafted him, I have to think he is going to get every chance to lock down that long term job, and not even taking draft slot into account, I still think he’s the best man for the job. The biggest issue is that the supposedly elite hit tool hasn’t even been close to elite in pro ball, but it finally started to show some signs of improvement in the 2nd half of this season. He hit .325 with a 18.3/13.3 K%/BB% in his final 42 games at Double-A as a barely turned 21 year old. That is what we were expecting from the get go, but better late than never. We obviously can’t just say he’s an elite hit tool guy again, but it gives a lot more confidence that he can fulfill the solid across the board projection I’ve been giving him for the past few years. The 119 wRC+ is also pretty damn good for his age. He hit only 9 homers with a 46.7% GB% in 119 games, and he’s also not a great base stealer, going 20 for 32, so this isn’t the upside we were hoping for at all, and I don’t think he’s a Top 100 prospect anymore, but I still believe he will be a fantasy relevant player, possibly for many years to come. – 2026 Projection: 38/6/29/.242/.306/.387/8 Prime Projection: 79/16/72/.265/.338/.423/18

7) Esmerlyn Valdez – PIT, 1B/OF, 22.6 – Pitt’s offense is atrocious. They scored the least amount of runs in the league, and while they have some good bats in the farm system, it’s not like they are stacked there either. Point being, a prospect like Valdez is in the perfect organization to bet on for fantasy. They need some big bats, and I don’t see why Pitt wouldn’t give Valdez a major chance to be one of those big bats. He obliterated High-A with 20 homers and a 176 wRC+ in 72 games as a 21 year old, and while he got off to a slow start at Double-A, he finished strong with 6 homers and a 145 wRC+ in his final 42 games. The dude can flat out mash with a powerful righty swing at 6’2” and plenty of lift and pull. There is hit tool risk with a 24.6% K%, and he doesn’t have much defensive value, but like I said, beggars can’t be choosers. Pitt needs some big bats, and I think Valdez is going to get his shot at some point, if not in 2026, then in 2027 and beyond. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 70/26/81/.243/.318/.462/4

8) Wyatt Sanford – PIT, SS, 20.4 – Sanford is the type of prospect who just slowly rises up prospect rankings with a high floor profile. He’s got a good middle infield glove, he’s got a solid feel to hit, he’s got speed and he’s got some projectability at 6’1”. This is going to be a MLB ballplayer, the only question is how good, and that will likely be dictated by how much stronger he can get. He held his own at Single-A with a 104 wRC+, 4 homers, 21 steals, and a 20.1/9.8 K%/BB% in 44 games. The 85.3 MPH EV and 30.3% Hard Hit% aren’t great, but he was only 19 years old, and like I said, there is definitely room for him to tack on more mass. Those numbers are only going up. He’s not the flashiest of prospects, but he’s probably on the underrated side right now with a high floor and not bad upside at all. I like him. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 76/14/67/.262/.323/.417/26

9) Rafael Flores – PIT, C/1B, 25.5 – Pitt targeted Flores in the David Bednar deal for a reason, and that reason is that they are desperate for close to the majors power bats, and Flores most certainly fits that bill at 6’4”, 232 pounds. He mashed 22 homers in 133 games in the upper minors. The reason I don’t have him ranked higher though, is because I was a little disappointed with the hard hit numbers once he got to Triple-A, putting up a 87.9 MPH EV and 36.4% Hard Hit% in 46 games. He’s also already 25 years old and has major hit tool risk with a 34% whiff% at Triple-A and a 41.2% K% in his small cup of coffee in the majors in 17 PA (albeit while crushing the ball with a 94.8 MPH in 8 batted balls). It’s also questionable if he can stick at catcher, making defense another area of risk. Pitt is sure to get his bat in the lineup somewhere (1B/DH/C) to see if he can be the big power bat they need, so he’s not a bad flier at all. If he stinks, you can drop him quickly, but maybe that power shows up. – 2026 Projection: 24/9/31/.226/.297/.415/2 Prime Projection: 45/16/57/.241/.318/.438/5

10) Antwone Kelly – PIT, RHP, 22.6 – As I’ve been harping on for most of this Team Report, Pitt has become a pitching development factory, and Kelly is yet another big hit for them in 2025. His velocity took a big jump this year, now sitting upper 90’s and hitting over 100 MPH, and it resulted in a 3.02 ERA with a 27.2/7.7 K%/BB% in 107.1 IP split between High-A and Double-A. He wasn’t quite as good at Double-A (23.5/8.2 K%/BB% in 48 IP), but he was reaching a career high IP, and he still put up a 3.00 ERA at the level. He’s not tall at 5’10”, but he doesn’t look small out there all all. He’s thick in the right spots, and the delivery is both explosive and pretty athletic. The secondaries aren’t as good as the fastball, but he throws a variety of them (slider, change, cutter, sinker), and hopefully there is more improvement coming down the line as he was only 21 years old this year. I’ll take a foundation of upper 90’s heat and strong upper minors production all day. He also has the fallback of being a possible future closer candidate. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 10/3.82/1.26/156 in 155 IP

11) Tony Blacno Jr. – PIT, 1B/DH, 20.10 – I remember when Blanco was a fun international prospect sleeper as a giant of a man at 6’7”, 243 pounds, but like many giant men find, getting the bat on the ball is just really hard to do at that height. And Blanco certainly struggles with that with a 35.1% K% in 30 games this season, but he doesn’t struggle hitting bombs with 7 homers and a 135 wRC+ at Single-A. It came with a 93.1 MPH EV and 53.8% Hard Hit%. He’s basically been a DH only with a few games 1B mixed in, so it’s all bat and nothing but the bat, but the dude will hit bombs at any level clearly. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 62/25/73/.220/.311/.478/0

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
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